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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. So this is meet Joey Paid Joe Pisapia.

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Speaker 1: Week three is just about concluded. A few games left

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Speaker 1: here a Monday night. You can catch us by PM

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Speaker 1: Eastern every single Monday live on the YouTube channel breaking

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Speaker 1: those games down on Monday and Thursday night myself at

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Speaker 1: Scott Bogman. But this year this is about looking ahead.

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Speaker 1: And man, oh man, I'm depressed. It was a bad

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Speaker 1: week for me. I is terrible this week. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: take all the l's here because I thought there was

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Speaker 1: some really good things here. I was very happy about

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Speaker 1: outside the Chiefs. That's like the only thing that went

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Speaker 1: right for me. God bless you Taylor Swift for making

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Speaker 1: sure that you had Travis Kelsey and Patrick Mahomes motivated.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully these two gentlemen had better weeks than I do.

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Speaker 1: We could take it through a good week four. As

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Speaker 1: we continue on, Pat fitz Morris joins us, Sam Hoppin

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Speaker 1: joins is. Of course you could check out all our

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Speaker 1: amazing content at Betting Pros. Sammy Boy repping the Green

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Speaker 1: Bay Packers gear. Feeling pretty good about that Jordan Love Homecoming.

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Speaker 1: So I think you were in a good spot here

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Speaker 1: to win this division because it ain't gonna be the

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Speaker 1: bet and it certainly doesn't feel like the Vikings can

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Speaker 1: win anything Zam.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we were talking about this pre show.

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Speaker 3: I do think the Vikings still do have a chance

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Speaker 3: because they haven't played anyone in the division yet. They

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Speaker 3: have some opportunities to make up some ground with those games,

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Speaker 3: and they've just gotten terribly unlucky. I'll talk about it

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Speaker 3: a little bit later, but with the turnovers, it's just

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Speaker 3: been bad and you would expect some of that to

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Speaker 3: regress a little bit in season, even though everyone's talking

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Speaker 3: about how well they did on one side in one

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Speaker 3: score games last year versus this year. So certainly looking

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Speaker 3: good for our Green Bay Packers though.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that under came in on that Charger game with

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Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings. One under that did not come in

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Speaker 1: was the Miami Dolphins.

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Speaker 2: Fits.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they scored enough points here for several games

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Speaker 1: like you're gonna took the Jets game, combined it with

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Speaker 1: another game and still probably not caught up to the

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Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. I can't imagine going forward. I think it's

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Speaker 1: going to be a real Dolle year. This offense could

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Speaker 1: continue to just take off and be something very special.

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Speaker 1: But that was a show of shows, bad showing for

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Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos. But I think the big takeaway is

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Speaker 1: Miami's offense without Jaalen Waddle even was stunningly good yesterday

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Speaker 1: fits historically.

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Speaker 4: So it was Joe, And credit to you. I think

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Speaker 4: you were on the Dolphins last week on this show.

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Speaker 4: I believe you like them, and I just I wasn't

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Speaker 4: really interested in that game at all, and I just

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Speaker 4: like this. This Broncos defense was actually good last year.

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Speaker 5: Or like a bump the march at least.

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Speaker 4: So it's hard to understand what exactly has happened here.

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Speaker 4: But it's going to be a test of the you know,

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Speaker 4: mediocre offense versus the mediocre defense when the Bears and

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Speaker 4: Broncos get together this week, and mediocre is really being

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Speaker 4: kind quite frankly, I mean, this is yeah, So it

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Speaker 4: will be interesting to see what gives in that game.

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Speaker 1: The Denver Broncos the first team in NFL history to

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Speaker 1: give up three hundred and fifty yards in the air

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Speaker 1: and on the ground. Congratulations Bronco. I mean, somebody's got

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Speaker 1: to get fired today for something. I don't know who

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Speaker 1: it is, but you know this is usually when heads roll.

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Speaker 1: But look, before we get going, don't forget everybody. We've

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Speaker 1: got free stuff for you here Petting Pros So if

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Speaker 1: you haven't already, make sure you subscribe to the channel.

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Speaker 1: Drop a comment below, give us your favorite picks of

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Speaker 1: week four that you like in the early look ahead,

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Speaker 1: and you just might win a James Cook autograph jersey.

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Speaker 1: Thanks to us here Petting pro So. Again, subscribe, drop

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Speaker 1: the comment and click that belt to it goes Dings.

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Speaker 1: You know if you're the winner of the big James

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Speaker 1: Cook Jersey. Let's move on here to Thursday night football.

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Speaker 1: Your Green Bay Packers gentlemen are going to host the

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Speaker 1: Detroit Lions. Speaking of Indivision matchups, this one is real spicy.

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Speaker 1: You've got the Green Bay Packers two point home underdogs.

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Speaker 1: Forty five and a half is the number at Sugarhouse

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Speaker 1: right now. Forty four and a half. You can get

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Speaker 1: that over on Caesars. And if you like the Packers

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Speaker 1: to win at home in that dog situation, on the

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Speaker 1: money line right now, FanDuel's got the best number plus

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Speaker 1: one oh six. So let's take us through here. In

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Speaker 1: your opinion, Fits, is this line correct number one and

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Speaker 1: number two? Do you see any early value?

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Speaker 4: I do think the line is correct, Joe. And this

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Speaker 4: does feel like a battle for NFC North supremacy. We

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Speaker 4: know the Bears aren't going to be battling for anything,

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Speaker 4: and the Vikings, Yeah, maybe they've had some bad luck,

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Speaker 4: but that defense is pretty legitimately terrible.

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Speaker 5: So this is also a Packers.

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Speaker 4: Revenge game after the Lions knocked them out of the

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Speaker 4: playoffs in the final game of the twenty twenty two

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Speaker 4: regular season. So Jared Goff has made four starts against

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Speaker 4: the Packers since joining the Lions. Lost his first one,

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Speaker 4: has won the last three. I don't know that I

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Speaker 4: like either side here, Joe, but I sort of like

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Speaker 4: the under Both Lions Packers games played under last season,

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Speaker 4: and the Packers continue to be very slow paced offensively

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Speaker 4: under Matt Lafleur.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, especially with the Thursday night game. I kind of

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Speaker 1: lean where you are right now in this one of

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Speaker 1: the under Sam. What's your early instinct of any on

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Speaker 1: this line.

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Speaker 3: I actually took the Packers money line this morning. I

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Speaker 3: do think there is a little bit of value. I

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Speaker 3: don't think that Detroit is three points better than green

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Speaker 3: Bay on a neutral field, which is what this line

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Speaker 3: is indicating. The Packers are dealing with a ton of

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Speaker 3: health concerns. Jayira Alexander was out yesterday. Defandre Campbell left early.

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Speaker 3: The left side of the offensive line is nowhere to

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Speaker 3: be seen right now. But they've still allowed just a

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Speaker 3: twenty one and a half percent pressure rate, which is great.

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Speaker 3: It's second in the league. Green Bay still doesn't have

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Speaker 3: a game with all of Baktyari, Aaron Jones, and Christian

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Speaker 3: Watson playing together this year, and I do think that

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Speaker 3: they might have held some of those guys out on

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Speaker 3: Sunday knowing that they had the Thursday night game against

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Speaker 3: a divisional opponent at home, and so I think at

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Speaker 3: least two of those three guys will be active on

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Speaker 3: Thursday night. Green Bay's been sort of living off of

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Speaker 3: explosive plays so far this year. They have a pretty

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Speaker 3: low success rate but a fairly high EPA per play.

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Speaker 3: But Detroit allows the sixth highest rate of explosive pass

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Speaker 3: plays on defense, so I think this is another opportunity

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Speaker 3: for green Bay to steal another victory on Thursday Night.

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Speaker 1: It's a great point about Watson and Aaron Jones too.

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Speaker 1: If they are active, this is the time to jump

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Speaker 1: on that money line number right now, because that could

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Speaker 1: very well be the case of why they were just

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Speaker 1: holding them a little bit longer. Because this is the

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Speaker 1: game you have to win. This is the indivision contest

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Speaker 1: that means the most in the standings anyway. So let's

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Speaker 1: get to the next one here. Jacksonville Jaguars stick a

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Speaker 1: big fat l against the Houston Texans. Ooh wee at

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Speaker 1: home they are now one and two. Atlanta Falcons Cinderella

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Speaker 1: is finally got lost themselves. So both these teams coming

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Speaker 1: off losses a week three. Right now, we got Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: your standard minus three right now at home. That feels

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Speaker 1: about right as we're trying to figure out the identity

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Speaker 1: of these two teams. Forty five and a half is

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Speaker 1: the number four The under here at Bette Rivers forty

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Speaker 1: five Arena Hafock, FanDuel. If you like the over, and

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Speaker 1: then if you like the money line, bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: As the Falcons who went outright at plus one forty five.

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Speaker 1: When you look at this line, Sam, what do you see?

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Speaker 3: I see the line giving you an opportunity to buy

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Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence at his lowest. I mean, he has not

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Speaker 3: played exceptionally the first three weeks of the season. Played

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Speaker 3: okay against Houston in Week one, not Houston, Indianapolis, excuse me,

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Speaker 3: and then didn't fare farewell against the Chiefs, and then

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Speaker 3: didn't play well this past week either, And I think

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Speaker 3: they're sort of realizing that they can't just throw the

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Speaker 3: ball at Calvin Ridley twelve plus times a game and

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Speaker 3: win that way. They need to get some of these

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Speaker 3: other playmakers involved. But Trevor Lawrence is still a much

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Speaker 3: better quarterback than Desmond Rheder. He Ritter had a negative

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Speaker 3: fourteen point two percent completion percentage over expectation last week,

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Speaker 3: which is not especially against Detroit defense that again we

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Speaker 3: just talked about hasn't been great defending the pass, and

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Speaker 3: it currently looks like this.

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Speaker 2: Is shaded towards Atlanta.

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Speaker 3: I wonder if we see this get down to two

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Speaker 3: and a half, Jacksonville in their home away from home,

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Speaker 3: playing in London, so they have that bit of familiarity

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Speaker 3: as well, So I'd be taking Jacksonville with the points here.

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Speaker 1: Pat Sam makes a good point here. This is the

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Speaker 1: way to buy Trevor Lawrence at the lowest point. Are

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Speaker 1: you buying him at this lowest point here this week?

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Speaker 4: I'm really not, Joe. Yes, the Jaguars have a big

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Speaker 4: quarterback advantage here, but the Falcons and Arthur Smith generally

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Speaker 4: do a pretty good job of hiding Desmond Ridder in

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Speaker 4: that offense, and at least that's certainly what they're trying

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Speaker 4: to do each and every week.

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Speaker 5: Like I see these two teams.

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Speaker 4: Of roughly equal caliber, and I was kind of surprised

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Speaker 4: to see the Jaguars favored by what three points in

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Speaker 4: this one? Let me ask you, guys, what do you

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Speaker 4: think we know that Jaguars don't have a standard home

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Speaker 4: field advantage in this one, with the game being in

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Speaker 4: Wembley Stadium, what would you say their advantage is as

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Speaker 4: far as an operational advantage? So far, they played nine

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Speaker 4: London games, this will be their tenth. They're four and

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Speaker 4: five so far. It's got to be worth something, but

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Speaker 4: probably not worth the standard two points for home field advantage.

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Speaker 1: That's a really good question, Pat, I mean, I think

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Speaker 1: it's worth a little bit. That being said, Sam, do

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Speaker 1: you see any advantage of the fact that they have

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Speaker 1: been sort of like the default London team these last

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Speaker 1: five six years.

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Speaker 3: I certainly think so. I don't think it's as big

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Speaker 3: of an advantage as people might think it is, because

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Speaker 3: there's so much science around. You know, when to sleep,

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Speaker 3: how to you know, recover from jet lag. And these

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Speaker 3: are the best of the best athletes who know how

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Speaker 3: to do all of this sort of stuff. And it's

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Speaker 3: not like nobody in Atlanta is, you know, just not

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Speaker 3: familiar with traveling overseas. I do think there is a little.

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Speaker 2: Bit to it.

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Speaker 3: I mean I would make it, you know, maybe close

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Speaker 3: to half a point if that it right now, But

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Speaker 3: it's I think I still think Jacksonville is going to

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Speaker 3: get to win here, all right.

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Speaker 1: Moving on to the next game here on the slate

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Speaker 1: two for a time, we've got Pittsburgh and Houston. Now,

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Speaker 1: Houston coming off their first victory.

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Speaker 2: CJ.

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Speaker 1: Stroud looking good, the passing game looking good, and Eco

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Speaker 1: Collins tanked out. We just talked about all those guys

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Speaker 1: in the Waiver Wire podcast on Fantasy pro fits. So

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Speaker 1: forty one is the number one FanDuel. Houston, of course

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Speaker 1: is a four point underdog at home, which makes sense

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Speaker 1: now Pittsburgh minus three on DK's what you can get

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Speaker 1: right now. But you know that Pittsburgh secondary patt has

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Speaker 1: not played well this year. I think we can all

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Speaker 1: agree on that. Yes, second, after the quarterback, that is

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Speaker 1: their saving grace on defense and offensively. I still work

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Speaker 1: in progress, I mean still trying to figure out their identity.

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Speaker 1: They had some moments, they had enough moments where they

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Speaker 1: squeaked by last night. But what is your takeaway of

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Speaker 1: any from last night, what we saw from the Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: Steelers and what you see in this early line here.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, if you can keep TJ.

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Speaker 4: Watt and his friends off your quarterback, you can do

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Speaker 4: business against this Pittsburgh secondary. And I think the Texans

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Speaker 4: passing game has been much more advanced than we thought

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Speaker 4: it was gonna be.

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Speaker 2: C J.

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Speaker 4: Stroud has been pretty pretty terrific so far. The Steelers

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Speaker 4: might not be one of the powers of the AFC,

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Speaker 4: but they have picked themselves up off the deck pretty

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Speaker 4: nicely after that embarrassing home loss to the forty nine

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Speaker 4: Ers in Week one. And the Texans they're not pushovers.

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Speaker 4: I think this line is about right. I generally love

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Speaker 4: home dogs, but I'm not sure I can get behind

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Speaker 4: the Texans as a home dog against the Steelers.

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Speaker 1: All right, Sam, taking a look at this line here

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Speaker 1: for you. Fitz mentioned keeping Watt off of you is important,

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Speaker 1: but this offensive line has had a lot of injury

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Speaker 1: issues here to open the season. Do you think the

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Speaker 1: health and talented the offensive line can keep Watt all

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Speaker 1: of ce J Stroud?

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Speaker 2: I think so. I think Houston is for real. I

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Speaker 2: mean c J.

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Speaker 3: Strout is making throws that make it seem like he

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Speaker 3: should have been the number one overall pick in the

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Speaker 3: draft this past year. I mean, he's playing phenomenally.

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Speaker 2: Again.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned the playmakers that they have, you know, on

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Speaker 3: the Pittsburgh offense side, it's just gruesome. I mean, I

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Speaker 3: know that they played San Francisco and Cleveland, but they

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Speaker 3: are just down bad historically in EPAPRI plays, success rate,

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Speaker 3: you know, all of these advanced metrics, and I just

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Speaker 3: don't think that giving Naj Harris the ball is really

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Speaker 3: an effective strategy, even against Houston. So I think you're

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Speaker 3: getting the better quarterback with the points here at home

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Speaker 3: for Houston again, a defense that has been able to

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Speaker 3: stifle some pretty good offenses so far this year. So

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Speaker 3: I'm taking Houston with the points especially. I think I

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Speaker 3: got him at plus three and a half this morning,

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Speaker 3: which if you can get it on that side of three,

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Speaker 3: is huge for me.

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Speaker 1: The Los Angeles Rams are going to travel to Indianapolis.

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Speaker 1: We'll see how the Rams perform tonight, but in the meantime,

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Speaker 1: we hope that we're getting Anthony Richardson back here for

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Speaker 1: the Colts. The Colts stole a victory away from the

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Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens on the road, a huge win for this team.

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Speaker 1: They are now two and one. Forty five and a

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Speaker 1: half is the number on this one. Obviously, it's practically

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Speaker 1: a pick him, and understandably why I guess a lot

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Speaker 1: of us to do whether or not you think Richardson

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Speaker 1: plays and how big of an impact he makes. Right now,

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Speaker 1: plus one and a half is where the Colts are

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Speaker 1: at home. Sam, do you want to bet this line

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Speaker 1: now or do you want to wait for more clarity

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Speaker 1: when it comes to the quarterback situation.

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Speaker 3: Definitely want to wait. These are two teams that I

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Speaker 3: just like can't get a read on so far. It's

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Speaker 3: because they were expected to be pretty bad going into

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Speaker 3: the season, and they've played competent, above average football at

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Speaker 3: certain points so far this season. I do think you

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Speaker 3: know that Gardner Minshew didn't play half bad this past

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Speaker 3: week against a pretty good Ravens defense. So I don't

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Speaker 3: think the line really changes a ton whether it's Minshew

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Speaker 3: or Richardson. But I do think that there's some more

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Speaker 3: variability you're going to get with Richardson under center that

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Speaker 3: could lead me to wanting the Rams in this situation.

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Speaker 1: Pat, the forty five at DK right now you're getting

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Speaker 1: is intriguing to me because if Richardson plays the explosiveness

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Speaker 1: he carries, I think the over is something you can

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Speaker 1: actually look for in this game.

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Speaker 4: What do you think That's what I want to play.

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Speaker 4: I don't want to play either side. I mean, we

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Speaker 4: get this fun matchup of two teams, so we thought

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Speaker 4: we're going to be lousy, but have turned out to

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Speaker 4: be like plucky and very entertaining to watch unexpectedly.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, I like the over a lot. Here. We've

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Speaker 5: seen the Colts play.

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Speaker 4: At a breakneck offensive pace under Shane Steichen, Like that

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Speaker 4: is how they want to play. That's going to be

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Speaker 4: very friendly to overs, I think. And the Colts they

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Speaker 4: have a veteran slot corner in Kenny Moore, but their

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Speaker 4: outside cornerbacks are very inexperienced, and I think Matthew Stafford

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Speaker 4: might be able to take advantage of that. I think

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Speaker 4: there are gonna be points.

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Speaker 2: In this game. Joe, Yeah, I tend to agree with that.

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Speaker 2: Good Joe. You mentioned the explosive nature of Anthony Richardson.

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Speaker 2: I believe, if I remember correctly, he only has two

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Speaker 2: pass attempts more than twenty yards downfield so far this season,

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Speaker 2: which is kind of different than people would have expected

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Speaker 2: coming into this season given how how much he was

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Speaker 2: launching the ball at Florida. But I do think Stiken

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Speaker 2: has been setting him up to get some easy completions

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Speaker 2: and build is confident.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the I think you're one hundred percent right,

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Speaker 1: and Stiken's a great offensivend I think we've already seen

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Speaker 1: that in Philly for those last few years, and it's

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Speaker 1: also well known around the league. A lot of league

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Speaker 1: people talk about, like Stichen's that guy that people are

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Speaker 1: very excited to see get that head coaching job and

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Speaker 1: what he can do with Richardson. But Richardson's ability to

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Speaker 1: make plays with his legs, those are the ones that really,

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you know you got somebody you

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Speaker 1: know you're in the red zone. It's third and eight,

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Speaker 1: and next thing you know, he runs for a touchdown

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Speaker 1: from the eighteen yard line like like that. That's the

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Speaker 1: kind of stuff and you saw it before he had

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Speaker 1: the concussion. That's backbreaking stuff for the opposing defenses, but

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Speaker 1: also for totals, because that's stuff that just should not happen,

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Speaker 1: but it does when you have guys like Anthony Richardson

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Speaker 1: with a ball in their hands. So I'm kind of where.

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Speaker 2: Bad is too.

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Speaker 1: I think you leave this one to the coin flip.

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Speaker 1: It is speaking of bad teams though, by the way,

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Speaker 1: you kind of mentioned teams that we don't know who

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Speaker 1: they are, haven't played. Well, how about the Minnesota Vikings

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Speaker 1: and the Carolina Panthers, everybody. How about the winless ball here? Now,

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Speaker 1: somebody theoretically has to win. I guess they could tie,

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Speaker 1: but we're going to get the red rifle again this week.

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Speaker 1: So Caroline, of course, three point underdogs at home, as

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Speaker 1: we would expect them to be, Minnesota's defense, not getting

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Speaker 1: a lot of credit as they should not. Forty four

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Speaker 1: and a half is the number for this one. If

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Speaker 1: you like the Panthers to get their first victory, well,

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Speaker 1: you can get it plus one forty at Caesars Fits.

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Speaker 1: You know, the Vikings were handed many opportunities. They could

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Speaker 1: not cash in on those opportunities. The defense is dreadful.

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Speaker 1: I know Caroline is not a good football team. Theoretically

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Speaker 1: on pay, Minnesota should handle them, but they're only getting

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Speaker 1: the three points here. Do you think that Minnesota can

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Speaker 1: finally pull themselves up by the haunches and do something

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Speaker 1: here and win this game decisively by more than three points?

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Speaker 4: They can, But I do like a money line bat

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Speaker 4: on Carolina at plus one, you know, a home under,

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Speaker 4: especially if Andy Dalton plays like with Andy Dalton starting, Yes,

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Speaker 4: I mean we saw Andy Dalton complete thirty four or

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Speaker 4: fifty eight passes. They turn Andy Dalton loose against a

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Speaker 4: bad Seattle defense that was missing Tarik Woollen, and now

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Speaker 4: he's going to be turned loose against a very bad

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Speaker 4: Minnesota defense. I like the Panthers in the money line,

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Speaker 4: and I like the over here, like I think we're

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Speaker 4: going to see a lot of offense. The Minnesota defense

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Speaker 4: is not good, but Minnesota's offense is very good. They're

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Speaker 4: gonna put points up themselves.

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Speaker 1: Sam I was very much on Minnesota this past week

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Speaker 1: I did not think they were the team that was

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Speaker 1: gonna come out winless. They did. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: I'm ready to learned to love again in week four.

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Speaker 1: This game, to me right now is terrifying, but Pat

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Speaker 1: seem very confident Carolina's abilities to maybe pull one out

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Speaker 1: of the hat. Do you see that same path to

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Speaker 1: victory for the Panthers.

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Speaker 3: I am once again on the other side of fits here.

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Speaker 2: I mentioned at.

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Speaker 3: The top of the show that Minnesota has just been

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Speaker 3: snake bitten by turnovers. Nearly a quarter of their offensive

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Speaker 3: drives have ended in turnovers. They have nine total turnovers

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Speaker 3: this season. Carolina defense could be without Frankie Louvu and

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Speaker 3: Xavier Woods, who both left the game early on Sunday.

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Speaker 3: Minnesota's offense is still exceptionally good. I mean, they have

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Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson, they have Jordan Addison, they have TJ. Hockinson.

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Speaker 3: Like this offense is exceptional. They have a ten point

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Speaker 3: eight percent explosive passwraight at second in the league. I

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Speaker 3: already took the over in this game as well. I

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Speaker 3: think this could be a shootout. So I'm on the

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Speaker 3: same side as fits there. But I just I think

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Speaker 3: these teams can can score a bunch of points and

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Speaker 3: their defenses aren't going to be doing much to get

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Speaker 3: in the way of that.

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Speaker 1: All right, some quarterback updates still yet to come in

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Speaker 1: this next game, because we have the New Orleans Saints

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Speaker 1: with Derek Carr. They are two to one now. They

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Speaker 1: did lose that game to the Green Bay Packers, so

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Speaker 1: much of the happiness of my co hosts here now.

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Speaker 1: Derek Carr came away with a sprain day seed joints,

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Speaker 1: so he's probably gonna miss a few weeks. I've had

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Speaker 1: that injury myself. It's it'll take a couple of weeks

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Speaker 1: for him to get back, but he should be able

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Speaker 1: to play again this season, which means is probably gonna

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Speaker 1: be Jameis Winston. Now, the Saints are three point favorites

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Speaker 1: at home to Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay obviously you get

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Speaker 1: to play this evening against the Philadelphia Eagles, so we'll

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Speaker 1: see what comes out of that game. But forty one

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Speaker 1: is the number you're getting at Sugarhouse, forty and a

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Speaker 1: half at DK, so we're kind of in that same vein.

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Speaker 1: If you like Tampa for the upset plus one forty five,

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Speaker 1: you can get that over at Sugarhouse, Sam, when you're

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Speaker 1: looking at this one, and I mean, I feel like

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Speaker 1: Winston's been inept. I think that's the best way to

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Speaker 1: put it this point. Like, you know, New Orleans had

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Speaker 1: that game basically in the third quarter that injury happened

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Speaker 1: and all just fell apart for them. They should theoretically

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Speaker 1: win this football game, but Tampa has shown that they've

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Speaker 1: been a little pluckier than we think they would be.

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Speaker 1: Do you think this is a perfect trap game for

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Speaker 1: the Saints.

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Speaker 3: I think this is going to be an extremely low

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Speaker 3: scoring game. Both defenses are currently top eight in EPA

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Speaker 3: per play it allowed early down success rate, passing success rate,

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Speaker 3: So I think these teams are going to struggle to

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Speaker 3: move the ball again with two quarterbacks that we both

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Speaker 3: I think we all see as below average in Baker

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Speaker 3: Mayfield and Jamis Winston. So I'd be looking to take

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Speaker 3: Tampa Bay with the points because again, in these low

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Speaker 3: scoring games, it's going to be a lot closer and

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Speaker 3: getting potentially three three and a half points, I think

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Speaker 3: Tampa Bay's offense has been good enough to keep them

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Speaker 3: in their games.

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Speaker 1: Pat your thoughts here on the Buccaneers, So I'd say,

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Speaker 1: of so far played well above my expectations. We'll see

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Speaker 1: what happens against a real football team in the tonight.

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Speaker 1: So now we have a little perspective. Maybe beating the

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Speaker 1: Vikings opening week wasn't as oppressive as we thought it was.

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00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 1: So Tampa is the underdog year. But with the backup quarterback,

437
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,400
Speaker 1: is this game a little closer? Maybe? Perhaps in your mind.

438
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 4: I don't know what to make of the Buccaneers offense yet, Joe.

439
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 4: With Baker Mayfield doing well against the Vikings and Bears, like,

440
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 4: we can't consider that as counting for much. It'll be

441
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:28,160
Speaker 4: interesting to see how he does against an Eagles defense

442
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 4: that allowed I think like one hundred and seventy nine

443
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,639
Speaker 4: passing yards per game on average in twenty twenty two.

444
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 4: So yeah, this game is really a hard one to peg.

445
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:39,640
Speaker 4: I mean, we had the Adam Thielen ball. Now we've

446
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:43,160
Speaker 4: got the Jamis Winston ball. And Winston adds this air

447
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 4: of unpredictability to this game. I mean, this is the

448
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 4: guy who was a thirty to thirty quarterback the last

449
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 4: time we saw him as a full time starter thirty

450
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:56,120
Speaker 4: three touchdowns in twenty nineteen with the Buccaneers thirty interceptions.

451
00:21:56,800 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 4: I mean he could go nuclear and torch the Buccaneers defense.

452
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 4: He could commit five turnovers. We don't know. Like Sam,

453
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 4: if you forced me to play it, I'd probably play

454
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 4: the under. But I it's a pretty low number, So

455
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 4: I don't think I'm gonna play that either.

456
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:12,399
Speaker 5: I'm just gonna stay away.

457
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 1: I think that that might be a good a good

458
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 1: practice there. But you know that total, that forty one,

459
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 1: I mean, that is a low number here. You know,

460
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 1: when you start scratching the surface of that the thirties,

461
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:26,439
Speaker 1: that's when you know that Vegas is saying, hey, this

462
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:27,880
Speaker 1: is not gonna be a fun game for the daily

463
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:29,920
Speaker 1: fantasy or for some other things too. And I don't

464
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 1: want to hear about Winston revenge games because he's been

465
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 1: in that division forever now, so he's in a backup

466
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,160
Speaker 1: there for the Saints or a starter at times when

467
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 1: called upon. The Philadelphia Eagles are going to host the

468
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 1: Washington Commanders. This Indivision matchup will take place in Philadelphia.

469
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 1: The Eagles are seven point favorites as of now over

470
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 1: on DraftKings. If you like the upset here of the

471
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 1: Washington Commanders, it's plus two to seventy five. The number here,

472
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 1: the total is forty four and a half fits when

473
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 1: you're looking at this one here, this feels like your

474
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,919
Speaker 1: normal sort of situation line here. If the Eagles go

475
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,880
Speaker 1: out and Monday night and smash here, do you think

476
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 1: this line moves any bit?

477
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 4: I do, which is why I've already grabbed the Eagles

478
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 4: and locked them in at seven points. I'm betting them confidently,

479
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 4: even on the short week of rest. Sam Howell turned

480
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 4: to absolute jelly against a good Buffalo Bell's pass defense,

481
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 4: and the Eagles have a good pass defense as well.

482
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 4: This spread feels way too small to me, and I

483
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 4: think we're going to see it go up. You know,

484
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 4: I do think the Eagles are going to beat the

485
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 4: Buccaneers tonight and that's going to move this line.

486
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 1: That feels right to me. Sam, your friend and name

487
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:41,399
Speaker 1: Sam Howell made some bad decisions on Sunday. Can't make

488
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 1: those decisions against the Eagles. They're really going to put

489
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 1: you in a bad spot, just like the Buffalo Bills did.

490
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:46,719
Speaker 1: I'm kind of where Pad is on this one. If

491
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 1: you like the Eagles, you want to bet this one now,

492
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,239
Speaker 1: because the more time I think goes by the more

493
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 1: people will continue to grow confident in that Eagle's home

494
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 1: field advantage and the Commander is still relatively although they

495
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 1: were impressed in the first couple of weeks. You know,

496
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:02,439
Speaker 1: when you start playing better football teams, this is what happens.

497
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,640
Speaker 1: So what are your thoughts on this early line.

498
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 3: Washington got drag back down to earth after their fans

499
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 3: were very optimistic and I think rightfully so through the

500
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,159
Speaker 3: first two weeks. But I think Philadelphia should have no

501
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:19,640
Speaker 3: trouble just running all over this Commander's defense. Philadelphia ranks

502
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 3: fourth in rushing EPA per play and first in rushing

503
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 3: success rate. I don't think it really matters who they

504
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 3: have in the backfield, whether it's DeAndre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell,

505
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 3: Boston Scott, all of these guys should be able to

506
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 3: have some success. So I think this is a game

507
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 3: where Philadelphia goes in, even on a short week, and

508
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 3: just handles their business in at Philadelphia, all right.

509
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:45,959
Speaker 1: This one could be the game of the week here.

510
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 1: The Buffalo Bills, two and a half point favorites at

511
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 1: home against the Miami Dolphins, are still favorites at home

512
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 1: after Miami put up seventy points on the Denver Broncos.

513
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 1: But regardless the number on the over, if you like

514
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 1: it minus one twelve fifty one at Sugarhouse three and

515
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,639
Speaker 1: a half minus one ten a DK. If you like

516
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 1: Miami to win outright at plus one thirty five, that's

517
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,159
Speaker 1: the number you're getting a Sugarhouse right now in the

518
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 1: early line. Now, Sam, this is a fascinating one because

519
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,239
Speaker 1: the recency bias here. People are gonna run to this

520
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 1: total and bet the over. But it is an indivision matchup.

521
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: These teams do know each other very well. There's a

522
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 1: familiarity there as opposed to the teams you're playing out

523
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 1: of division or even out of conference. Do you think

524
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 1: that's a mistake to people running to this line and

525
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 1: going over right away?

526
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 3: I do think so. We saw in the Chargers Vikings

527
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 3: game this past week with a similar total line that

528
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 3: you need pretty much everything to go right for a

529
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 3: game with that high of a total to go over.

530
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 3: There were red zone turnovers in that game that forced

531
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 3: them not to score and lengthen the game. And I

532
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 3: don't know, I've been going back and forth all morning

533
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 3: around which team I think is going to win. I

534
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,919
Speaker 3: think I take Miami with the points right now.

535
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 2: But I I'm.

536
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 3: Just gonna sit back and enjoy this game without any

537
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 3: betting leans for right now.

538
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 1: To tell you the truth, Pat, I think the best

539
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 1: number on this board is probably the under of fifty

540
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 1: three and a half on DK because that is inching

541
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 1: to where you know that threshold of team's really got

542
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 1: everyone's got to put it together. And I know, I

543
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: feel like a lot of money is going to come

544
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 1: in on the over, so maybe this number even pushes higher.

545
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 1: So maybe you wait if you like the over under.

546
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,160
Speaker 1: But I like Miami on the money line plus one

547
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: thirty five here. I'm I'm believing in what Mike McDaniel's

548
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 1: doing here with this offense.

549
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,920
Speaker 5: What do you think, Joe, We're very like minded this week.

550
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,399
Speaker 1: I know it's not always the same, I hope so

551
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 1: because last week I was on an island and it

552
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 1: did not work out. I drowned. I drowned trying to

553
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: swim off the island on Sunday night.

554
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 4: So yeah, you mentioned the totals already up to fifty

555
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:53,679
Speaker 4: three and a half on Draft Kings, and I do

556
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 4: think it's going to climb even higher, like we saw

557
00:26:56,160 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 4: these teams combine for over one hundred points of offense

558
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 4: in Week three.

559
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,640
Speaker 5: So and if it.

560
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,879
Speaker 4: Does get up to fifty four higher, I will be

561
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 4: betting the under two because, as Andrew Erickson pointed out

562
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 4: in the Betting Pros Betting primer, which you should be reading,

563
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 4: by the way, because then you'd see things like Ericson's

564
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 4: recommendation to bet Donald Parum for a first TD scorer

565
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 4: at thirty to one, which came in and made people

566
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 4: a lot of money. But so if it does get

567
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 4: to fifty four, as Ericson pointed out, we have now

568
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,919
Speaker 4: seen it was four last season. In this season and

569
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,640
Speaker 4: now it's five because we saw the Chargers Vikings game

570
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 4: close at fifty four. Games that close at fifty four

571
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 4: points or higher, we've had five of them now since

572
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,920
Speaker 4: the start of twenty twenty two, all five of stayed under.

573
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:46,400
Speaker 4: And so you know, I think we're going to see

574
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 4: that trend continue if this gets up to fifty four.

575
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 4: I also like the Dolphins. I mean I think they

576
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,640
Speaker 4: are the equal of the Buffalo Bills. Home field advantage

577
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 4: is worth about two points. If I'm getting the Dolphins

578
00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 4: in three, especially like with that field goal number, I

579
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 4: think we're getting like a point of value, So I

580
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 4: don't know whether.

581
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,200
Speaker 1: They can get Jalen Wattle back too. Theoretically, yeah, that's

582
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 1: what we're expecting.

583
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 4: I'm just not sure whether to get it at three

584
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 4: wait and hope it goes up to three and a half,

585
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 4: or you know, like it could go down to two

586
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 4: and a half and I can't figure out which way

587
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 4: the line would be more likely to move.

588
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 1: Well, what you got to do then, is set your

589
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 1: notifications for the game notification and the Betting Pros app

590
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 1: the line alerts. That's what it's there for. See you

591
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: look at that perfect segue. So if you haven't already

592
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 1: download the Betting Pros apps, think all your sportsbook, but

593
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 1: use the game notification. So you could basically say, I

594
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 1: want to keep an eye on this line here, does

595
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 1: it go to fifty four? Does go to fifty four

596
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 1: and a half? I want to be this is the

597
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 1: perfect example of how to use the line alerts or

598
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 1: the game notification because I'm waiting for this one to grow,

599
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 1: because I think it will. People are gonna keep talking

600
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 1: in the media about the seventy. They're gonna be talking

601
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: all about the Dolphins, and they should. They earnt that right,

602
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 1: But I think it's going to inflate this number even

603
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 1: more so the number I'm waiting on. But I like

604
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 1: the Dolphins here plus one thirty five. But check out

605
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 1: the line alerts and set those game notifications so you

606
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 1: know when the lines move, then you can pounce on it.

607
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: All right, Let's get to the next game here, maybe

608
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 1: not quite as exciting as the last one. Cincinnati Bengals

609
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 1: to the Tennessee Titans. Again, a lot of uncertainty here,

610
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 1: man FITZI. I thought that that plus four that I

611
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 1: got on the Titans was such a good number. I

612
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 1: got that one early last week, right after the show.

613
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 1: I locked that bad boy in. It did not matter.

614
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 1: The Titans were terrible. The offensive line just laid down

615
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 1: for Miles Garrett as I would too. I don't blame them,

616
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 1: but they are right now. You can get the Tennessee

617
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 1: Titans at plus one and a half at Sugarhouse. You

618
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 1: get Cincinnati at plus two and a half at Caesars.

619
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 1: Nobody knows what to do with this game. You get

620
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 1: forty one and a half on FanDuel, but forty four

621
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 1: on the under on Sugarhouse if you like that one,

622
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 1: and then it's even money for the Titans plus one

623
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 1: fifteen at Caesars. This is your classic. You go choose

624
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 1: your own adventure situation. But I guess a lot of

625
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 1: it has to do with the health of Joe Burrow.

626
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 1: So if you think Joe Burrow sits this week, comes

627
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 1: back healthy next week and has himself a game, well,

628
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 1: then this is the time to go bat Cincinnati. But

629
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 1: that's a big question mark, isn't.

630
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 4: If it Bengals are going to shut down Joe Burrow

631
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 4: just for the long term good, which makes me want

632
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 4: to bet the under here now to lock it in

633
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 4: at forty two and a half on DraftKings as of

634
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 4: this morning. I also want to do something with the Titans,

635
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 4: and maybe, like you, Joe, I'm guilty of giving too

636
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 4: much credit to Mike Frable sometimes and it's kind of

637
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 4: burned me. It burned me too last week. I thought

638
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 4: they were gonna, you know, turn it into like a

639
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 4: rock fight with the Browns and keep it close.

640
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 5: Didn't happen.

641
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 4: But so rather than take the Titans like on the

642
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 4: money line or you know, just a point and a half,

643
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 4: I might try to tease the put the Titans in

644
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 4: some sort of teaser where I'm getting more than a

645
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 4: field goal with them that I kind of like. I

646
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 4: think if we get no Joe Burrow, the Titans do

647
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 4: no worse than lose by a field goal or less.

648
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 1: Sam. This one's really dangerous for me because I feel

649
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 1: like I'm overreacting to my disdain of what happened this week,

650
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 1: and the Titans will do exactly what Fitz said, turn

651
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 1: this one into the rock fight, and then this one

652
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 1: will be a low total, and then this one will

653
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 1: be a Tennessee Titans victory when maybe they shouldn't win.

654
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 1: What do you think though about the Titans because this

655
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 1: is a really tough game on the schedule.

656
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 3: It is, but Tennessee's defense just made Deshaun Watson look

657
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 3: exceptionally good. He had I think, his best game as

658
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 3: a Brown. So if Joe Burrow comes out of the

659
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 3: game tonight without any setbacks, then I'm going probably pretty

660
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 3: heavy on the Bengals. Tennessee has a pass funnel defense.

661
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 3: They're rushing defense is top five in EPA per plays

662
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:44,719
Speaker 3: success rate and explosive rush rate, but their bottom might

663
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 3: in passing EPA per play and passing success rates. So

664
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 3: the way that Cincinnati is going to be able to

665
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 3: move the ball is through the air, and I think

666
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 3: even with Joe Burrow at less than one hundred percent,

667
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 3: he'll be able to get it, you know, Jamar Chase

668
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 3: T Higgins, Tyler Boyd the ball in space and be

669
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 3: able to carve up this Tennessee defense. So I'm waiting

670
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 3: until the game tonight is over to make sure that

671
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 3: that Joe Burrow is still intact. But if he is

672
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 3: then and this line stays with Cincinnati as the underdog,

673
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 3: then I'll be taking.

674
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 1: Them Another Indivision matchup, this one AFC North Baltimore Ravens

675
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 1: two and one. They are plus two right now in Sugarhouse,

676
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 1: traveling to Cleveland, which you can get a plus one

677
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 1: and a half over at bet Rivers. Again, everyone's trying

678
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 1: to figure this out here. I don't think anybody has

679
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:41,719
Speaker 1: a good beat on how good or bad the Ravens

680
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 1: really are, or really how good or bad Deshaun Watson

681
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns are, especially without Chubb. Forty four and

682
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 1: a half is the best number you can get for

683
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 1: the under forty two and a half, the best numbered

684
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 1: FanDuel you can get, by the way, for the over

685
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 1: plus one oh five on the money line. If you

686
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 1: like Baltimore to win outright, Sam, do you see any

687
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 1: early value in this contest between the Browns and.

688
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 3: The Ravens Getting forty four and a half, I'm going

689
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 3: under easily. I mean, you know you mentioned Miles Garrett

690
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 3: in the previous game. I don't know if he saw

691
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 3: the clip of him motioning to one side of the field,

692
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 3: Tennessee shifting two guys towards him, him going back to

693
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 3: the other side, and them shifting those to same two

694
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 3: guys over to block him. I mean, he's a force

695
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 3: to be reckoned with this Brown's defense is through three

696
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 3: games setting some historical rates right now. The Ravens offense

697
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 3: still looks a little out of sorts with this new

698
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 3: Todd Monkin offense, and the Ravens are just dealing with

699
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 3: a ton of injuries to Ronnie Stanley and Todd Linderbaum

700
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 3: were both out for the second straight week again. David

701
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 3: Ajabo left early on Sunday, while A dafe Owi and

702
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 3: Marcus Williams who were both out too. So I just

703
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 3: think this game is going to go way under that

704
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 3: forty four and a half going to be one of

705
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 3: those classic AFC North slugfests. That we typically see in

706
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:11,280
Speaker 3: in December, but get a little taste of in early

707
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:12,280
Speaker 3: October here.

708
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 1: All right, you want to get any taste of this

709
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:18,120
Speaker 1: early line when it comes to Baltimore and Cleveland, pet Yeah, I.

710
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:21,720
Speaker 4: Mean it's gonna be, as Sam said, a classic KFC

711
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 4: North Slugfest, low scoring close. If I can get the

712
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 4: total at anything forty two or higher, yeah, sign me

713
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 4: up for the under. I saw forty one and a

714
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 4: half on DraftKings this morning, so I'm eager to watch

715
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:37,319
Speaker 4: this game.

716
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 5: I'm not so eager to bet forty four.

717
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 1: You can get that under at bet rivers right now.

718
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 1: That's why I use betting Pros sink all your sportsbooks.

719
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 1: And again you can follow the guys too bettingpros dot

720
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 1: Com slash Sam, slash fits, slash Joe. But not last week.

721
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 1: You shouldn't have followed me last week. This week will

722
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 1: be better. But again I win with you, I lose

723
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:54,400
Speaker 1: with you. That's what we do here. And if you

724
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 1: want to make your picks count, make sure you go

725
00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 1: and join our NFL contest too. Just go download the app,

726
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 1: go to the community tab, click on the NFL Contest

727
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 1: Join or go to Betting Pros dot Com slash NFL Contest.

728
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 1: It's free to join. All you gotta do is make

729
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,280
Speaker 1: five picks every week, one hundred picks throughout the NFL season.

730
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 1: That's it, and the winners going to get an absolute

731
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 1: stunning JSN Jackson Smith and Jig but Autograph Jersey. We're

732
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733
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,440
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Speaker 1: our shops at Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros. So join

735
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Speaker 1: the NFL Contest Bettingpros dot Com slash NFL Contest today.

736
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 1: It's free, it's fun. Everybody likes free stuff. Now somebody's

737
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:36,320
Speaker 1: gonna come out with a free victory. Here is the

738
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 1: Chicago Bears, now you know, winless, going to face the

739
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 1: winless Denver Broncos. Now the Broncos on paper they look

740
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 1: like the better team. Theoretically they are two point favorites

741
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 1: on the road at Sugar House. Forty four and a

742
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 1: half is the number. You can get it forty five

743
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:54,880
Speaker 1: and a half on FanDuel if you like the under

744
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 1: and then you get plus one twenty five. You think

745
00:35:57,440 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 1: the Bears can actually get themselves together and win a

746
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 1: football game. I know you are keen on the Denver

747
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:07,919
Speaker 1: Broncos defense bouncing back after being grossly all time embarrassed.

748
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 1: Can they bounce back after what happened? And can the

749
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:15,399
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos finally get a victory in the Sean Payton era?

750
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 4: Joe and I am going to bet them. Both of

751
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:22,880
Speaker 4: these teams are having major issues obviously, but I think

752
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 4: the Bears issues are irreparable. Like that team is so

753
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 4: beyond dysfunctional. It's like I could not have seen this coming.

754
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 4: And the Bears are just a train wreck right now.

755
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 4: They're completely off the rails.

756
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 5: You know.

757
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,439
Speaker 4: I know the Broncos have problems of their own, And man,

758
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:42,839
Speaker 4: I wanted to give Garrett Balls a hug after hearing

759
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 4: his postgame comments about how like he's been there for

760
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 4: seven years and all he's ever done is lost, and like,

761
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 4: I felt so bad for the guy. But I do

762
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 4: think the Broncos can get it together. They played a

763
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 4: close game and lost to the Raiders at home in

764
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 4: Week one. They should not have let one slip away

765
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 4: against the Commanders in Week two. Yes, things totally fell

766
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 4: apart against the Dolphins in Week three, but I think

767
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 4: they can get it back together against a team that

768
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,720
Speaker 4: I don't think can get it back together, the Bears.

769
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:13,239
Speaker 4: I'm taking the Dolphs the Broncos, and I'd lay more

770
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 4: than three and a half points. Like if this went

771
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 4: up to five and a half, I think i'd still

772
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 4: bet the Broncos.

773
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,919
Speaker 1: All right, Sam, your feelings about these two teams both

774
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 1: headed towards the downward trajectory, But somebody's got to come out.

775
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 1: So who comes out of this one with a W.

776
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 2: I'm with Fits.

777
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:31,359
Speaker 3: We've reached the thirty seven minute mark in the pod,

778
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 3: and I think this is the first.

779
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:34,760
Speaker 2: Time I have with him on his side.

780
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 3: But both of these teams were just embarrassed on Sunday

781
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 3: in different ways, and I think I give Denver a

782
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 3: much better chance to bounce back low Ki. I don't

783
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:52,720
Speaker 3: think their offense in Denver is that bad. They've had

784
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 3: some success. They're in the half of the league in

785
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 3: a lot of efficiency metrics. They're not blowing anyone away.

786
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 3: But against a devastatingly bad Bears defense, I think they

787
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 3: come away with an easy victory here. I like some

788
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:14,759
Speaker 3: alternate spreads on Denver in this game, to you know,

789
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,240
Speaker 3: just really put it to the Chicago Bears.

790
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:19,799
Speaker 1: All right, the Las Vegas Raiders are going to go

791
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:22,439
Speaker 1: to LA to play the Chargers. The Chargers are four

792
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 1: point favorites at home, fifty and a half as the

793
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 1: number Jimmy Garoppolo should play in this one plus one

794
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 1: seventy five like the upset, Sam, your thoughts on this

795
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,080
Speaker 1: contest here with Vegas and the Chargers.

796
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:36,160
Speaker 3: The Chargers are clearly the better team. Their offense is

797
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 3: firing on all cylinders. If not for Tua, I think,

798
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,720
Speaker 3: and you know, being one and two, I think Herbert

799
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:46,879
Speaker 3: would easily be in the MVP discussion. He has been

800
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 3: playing exceptionally well this year. I think, you know, obviously

801
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:56,240
Speaker 3: the Chargers defense isn't that great, but the Raiders defense

802
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 3: can't really make a stop to save its life. They

803
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 3: just allowed the Pittsburgh offense to look good. So I'm

804
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 3: I'm laying the points with Los Angeles here.

805
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:10,800
Speaker 1: Mike Williams out for the year torn a cl We

806
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 1: just got that news breaking while we were recording the show.

807
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:15,719
Speaker 1: Fits impact here at all in this line for you

808
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 1: with Mike Williams done and then having to move to

809
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 1: QJ and maybe you know some more Palmer in this

810
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 1: lineup too.

811
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 4: With this over at fifty, maybe I'm going to get

812
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 4: Brandon Staleid here and the Chargers head coach is going

813
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:28,920
Speaker 4: to make some sort of terrible decision that costs me

814
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 4: my wager here. But I'm going to continue my full

815
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 4: season fade of Josh McDaniels. I've bet against him every

816
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 4: week so far. I'm going to keep betting against McDaniels

817
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:38,800
Speaker 4: and the Raiders.

818
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:40,279
Speaker 5: And you know, all.

819
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 1: Right, Fitz, Dallas Cowboys suffered their first loss. They are

820
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 1: now two and one Arizona Cardinals. They are still six

821
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites hosting New England this week.

822
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:50,399
Speaker 1: Forty two is the number sometimes forty two and a half.

823
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:52,920
Speaker 1: You're gonna get Sugarhouse forty two over a FanDuel if

824
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:54,879
Speaker 1: you think New England will win, it's plus two eighty

825
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 1: on the money line. I do not. I don't think

826
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 1: this offense is good enough. The defense is respectable, that's

827
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 1: for sure, but still, look, Dallas, I expected to bounce

828
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 1: back this week. The question is is this too big

829
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 1: of a number here? Too much credit for the Cowboys

830
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:08,319
Speaker 1: at six and a half fits?

831
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 4: You know, I want to believe the Cowboys are going

832
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:14,760
Speaker 4: to be out for vengeance after that toast stubbing in Arizona.

833
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 4: But I do wonder if the loss of Trayvon Diggs,

834
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:21,959
Speaker 4: oh I change something like, yeah, that's a big deal,

835
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 4: Like I don't know if mac Jones can capitalize on it.

836
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 4: And we know that the Cowboys can still get after

837
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:32,719
Speaker 4: the quarterback, certainly with Micah Parsons. So yeah, I just

838
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 4: like I think the lines are the line in the

839
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 4: total are both spot on here.

840
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 5: I just don't want to beat this.

841
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:40,759
Speaker 1: Well, speaking of Jones as too, the secondary for the

842
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 1: Newland Patriots was missing all their Joneses, all three of

843
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 1: them for this past matchup, so that's also a problem

844
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 1: on the other side here for the newle Patriots. Do

845
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:51,239
Speaker 1: you see any value here? Sam early on on this

846
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: Cowboys six and a half number.

847
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:55,919
Speaker 3: To I agree with fits Again, I think all these

848
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 3: lines are are spot on. I think people will overreact

849
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 3: a little bit to Dallas losing this past week, and

850
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 3: I'll talk about that in a minute. Here with our

851
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 3: next game.

852
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:08,400
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk about San Francisco, who is undefeated, looks great,

853
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 1: Arizona has look for all this crap we gave the

854
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals organization. They have been competitive on the field.

855
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 1: They're showing up for every game, even when they shouldn't

856
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:20,759
Speaker 1: be showing up for some of these games. Forty nine Ers, though,

857
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 1: are still fourteen point favorites at home fourteen and a

858
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:26,400
Speaker 1: half on the plus side for Arizona, get Sugarhouse fourteen

859
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 1: at FanDuel forty one to forty two. That's about the

860
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 1: Ranger getting this number. Arizona, there will be an epic

861
00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 1: upset for them at plus six fifty Sam fourteen is

862
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 1: a big number. Can the forty nine ers cover it?

863
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 3: I make this San Francisco by thirteen, So I'd probably

864
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 3: take Arizona. Their offense has not been a bismol to

865
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 3: your points. Their fifth and early down EPA per play

866
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 3: and success rate. They've played against Washington, the Giants, and Dallas,

867
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 3: who are all not terrible defenses. In Dallas is a

868
00:41:56,080 --> 00:41:58,919
Speaker 3: great defense, so I think they're going to be able

869
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 3: to have some six sess. I'm not betting this because

870
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 3: I still do worry that Arizona comes back down to earth,

871
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 3: but there's a real scenario where our Cardinals could have

872
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 3: been three and oh so far this season.

873
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 1: You're right, I think the one thing I take away,

874
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 1: though pit fits is the you know, because they beat

875
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 1: the Cowboys yesterday. I do think San Francisco goes Okay,

876
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 1: we got to take this game very seriously. It's in

877
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 1: our division, you know, like we better put a pounding

878
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 1: on the Arizona Cardinals because this team's going to show up.

879
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 1: So in some ways, I feel like that victory is

880
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:31,360
Speaker 1: almost like a wake up call without a wake up

881
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 1: call for San fran who, by the way, also has

882
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 1: extra rest for this game play.

883
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 4: Joe, I'm want to grab the forty nine Ers while

884
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 4: I can at only two touchdowns. I mean, look at

885
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:41,920
Speaker 4: how they just squeeze the life out of the New

886
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 4: York Giants in Week three, and now they do get

887
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 4: that extra rest as you pointed out. And look, the

888
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 4: Cardinals are already messing up this whole tanking thing. I

889
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 4: think they need to come to their senses and get

890
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 4: back to the business of losing, which behooves the franchise

891
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 4: long term. Yes, they beat the Cowboys, but the forty

892
00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 4: nine Ers have shown they know how to handle an

893
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:06,720
Speaker 4: overmatched opponent, like even a you know, fairly closely matched opponent.

894
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 5: They just crushed the.

895
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:11,279
Speaker 4: Steelers in Week one like I think this line should

896
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 4: be at least like fifteen and a half.

897
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 5: I want to get it now.

898
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 1: Kansaity Chiefs are going to travel to New York. They

899
00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:19,840
Speaker 1: are eight and a half point favorites. Plus nine you

900
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 1: can get at Sugarhouse on the Jets forty three to

901
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 1: forty three and a half. That's kind of the range

902
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 1: right now. You're seeing on the line plus three fifty

903
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:27,400
Speaker 1: if you think the Jets can win, and I don't.

904
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 1: Let's talk about this one FITZI here. I mean, Zach

905
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 1: Wilson has been historically bad. Let's just lay it out there.

906
00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:36,520
Speaker 1: That's how it's been. The numbers bared out. It's period,

907
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:39,279
Speaker 1: end of story. But the defense still very good year

908
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:41,160
Speaker 1: for the Jets. Can the defense keep this eight and

909
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 1: a half in check? Yeah?

910
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:46,360
Speaker 4: Boy, Patrick Mahomes versus Zach Wilson, talk about, you know,

911
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 4: David versus Goliath type of matchup.

912
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 1: I like want Shaquille O'Neil playing one on one basketball.

913
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 4: That's pretty much I want to lay the points here

914
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 4: when I look at that quarterback matchup. But I do

915
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:01,480
Speaker 4: still have the utmost respect for the Jets defense, and

916
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 4: they are not The Jets aren't going to roll over

917
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:06,840
Speaker 4: like the Chicago Bears did for the Kansas City Chiefs

918
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:07,879
Speaker 4: in Week four.

919
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:10,240
Speaker 5: So I don't think I'm going to play this one.

920
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:13,279
Speaker 1: Sam, your thoughts on this one.

921
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 3: I'm playing it. Give me Patrick Mahomes and the points

922
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 3: in the defense is really good. I do like the

923
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 3: Jets defense, But yeah, Zach Wilson is just so bad,

924
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:26,879
Speaker 3: and I think Kansas City will be able to make

925
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 3: his days as bad as it has been so far

926
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 3: this season.

927
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree that pass rushes back with Chris Jones

928
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 1: to eight and a half is Actually this is one

929
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:36,960
Speaker 1: of the numbers I like a lot. I want to

930
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:38,840
Speaker 1: get this locked in now before it grows, because it

931
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:42,560
Speaker 1: will next year. In final the New York Giants at home.

932
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 1: We don't have clarity about Saquon I would expect him

933
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 1: not to play. Considering all the information Doctor Chow gave

934
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:49,400
Speaker 1: us on the podcast last week on Fantasy Pros, it

935
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:50,840
Speaker 1: seems like he's gonna be a couple weeks with the

936
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 1: high ankle. Plus one and a half is what you're

937
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 1: getting here. The Seattle Seahawks one and a half point favorites.

938
00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 1: Forty four and a half is the number of sometimes

939
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:00,920
Speaker 1: forty five like over on fans and then plus one

940
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:04,399
Speaker 1: eighteen like the Giants who went home outright, Sam, let's

941
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 1: lock this one up. Giants Seattle any early value here

942
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:07,640
Speaker 1: in we four.

943
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:12,279
Speaker 3: I think their offense, after stumbling a bit Week one

944
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 3: against the Rams, has has come back and had two

945
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 3: great showings. G you know, Smith is looking a little

946
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 3: bit better. Kenneth Walker and Zach Sharpenay are a great

947
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:26,400
Speaker 3: one two punch in that backfield defense hasn't been stellar

948
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 3: by any means, But I don't think Daniel Jones is

949
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:33,280
Speaker 3: that big of a threat to to put the pressure

950
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 3: on Seattle. So give me Seattle with the points.

951
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 1: I agree. I'm with Sam minus one and a half

952
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:41,279
Speaker 1: minus one oh nine. You're getting on that one, Fitz,

953
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:42,880
Speaker 1: are you three for three on this one?

954
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:45,719
Speaker 5: Heck no, let me close the show with some disagreement.

955
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:50,440
Speaker 4: I'm KII give me the home dog on nine days rest,

956
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:53,839
Speaker 4: and like, I feel like the Seattle defense could be

957
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 4: the get well card that the Giants offense really needs

958
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,200
Speaker 4: at this point. I like the over here. I think

959
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 4: this game has sneak shootout potential. As bad as these

960
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:04,319
Speaker 4: two defenses are, I think it's gonna be a fun

961
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:06,400
Speaker 4: way to wrap up Week four, but yeah, I like

962
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 4: the home dog.

963
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 5: Give me the giants, all right?

964
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:09,920
Speaker 1: We want to hear from you, guys. What are your

965
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:12,640
Speaker 1: favorite picks for Week four? Early and off and drop

966
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 1: them in the comments below. Subscribe to the channel, click

967
00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:16,719
Speaker 1: the belt likos ding and you just might win a

968
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:20,319
Speaker 1: James Cook autograph Jersey. Join our NFL contest too at

969
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com slash NFL Contest and download the Betting

970
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 1: Pros app so you can get all the best lines

971
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:27,279
Speaker 1: and make the best decisions and turn on those line

972
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 1: alerts to as these lines are gonna move throughout the week.

973
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, but the story of the

974
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 1: game goes on for Sam and Pat. I'm Joey P.

975
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time.

976
00:46:36,200 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 2: Kids.

977
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,880
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. Follow us

978
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:42,839
Speaker 1: on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram at

979
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 1: Betting Pros NFL.

980
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:45,400
Speaker 2: Also subscribe to our

981
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:48,320
Speaker 4: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros