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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast, pot all right,

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Speaker 1: here we go fifteen cunny, twenty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 1: forty coty five fifty and.

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Speaker 2: The kick as block the college football world stundar, Oh

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Speaker 2: my goodness, he stumbled.

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Speaker 1: And football the latter of turn a canter on the inside.

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Speaker 3: Don't you believe I'm.

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Speaker 1: Not gonna table up the field to night. It's not

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Speaker 1: the size of the dog in the fight. It's the

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Speaker 1: size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 3: What's up the generation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 3: Campus Podcast. This is the week eighth college football betting preview.

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Speaker 3: I'm stucky and joining me as alway my fellow BBOC

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Speaker 3: calls Colin Wilson, and we had maybe the best podcast

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Speaker 3: episode in our seven year history, seven eight. I think

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Speaker 3: we're going on eight years now. It's been a good

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Speaker 3: couple of weeks. Hopefully we can keep it rolling. You

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Speaker 3: ready to dive in here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? The follow up is going to be crucial. I

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Speaker 1: was just wondering if you're gonna catch a flight down

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Speaker 1: so we could rush the field together after LSU loses.

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Speaker 1: You know, Okay, I want to get you a little

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Speaker 1: neck brace. Arkansas getting closer Petrino getting closer to six wins.

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Speaker 1: Maybe we can make the playoff. All right, that's enough

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Speaker 1: of being.

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Speaker 3: We will talk Arkansas later. I will happily wear a

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Speaker 3: neck price if they can. Mister Pittman can cover again

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Speaker 3: as an underdog back in a lot of coaches this

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Speaker 3: week coming off of buys that have been successful as underdogs.

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Speaker 3: More on that later, but let's hop right in with

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Speaker 3: our marquee matchups of the weekend.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

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Speaker 1: the marquee matchups we'll all end up being for Week eight.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's start with Nebraska at Indiana. I took

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Speaker 3: you know, it's undefeated Indiana. They've been a wagon against

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Speaker 3: the spread. They've been putting teams away late. I had

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Speaker 3: to take Nebraska catching seven here.

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Speaker 1: Nobody's done what we've done. Nobody's built like us.

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Speaker 3: You're warriors.

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Speaker 1: You're ready the once or nap at a time, play together,

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Speaker 1: play because we love the win and we're winners.

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Speaker 3: I just do the numbers play a lot. I mean, look,

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Speaker 3: if Nebraska, you change a couple of plays in the

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Speaker 3: Illinois game, that ridiculous interception the overtime, This is six

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Speaker 3: and OH Nebraska. They're getting just as much hype as

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Speaker 3: Indiana against six and OH Indiana, both teams coming off

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Speaker 3: of a bye. There's look, I mean, the most likely

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Speaker 3: outcome to me here is Indiana wins a close game.

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Speaker 3: Is what does Nebraska do? All they do is lose

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Speaker 3: close games. Their special teams will probably lose it for them.

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Speaker 3: Indiana special teams have been really good, but this will

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Speaker 3: be the best defense by far Indiana has faced. They

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Speaker 3: haven't faced the top fifty team yet and Nebraska arguably

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Speaker 3: top twenty five team in the country. And I still

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Speaker 3: have some questions about this Indiana defense. Right, they did

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Speaker 3: give up twenty eight to Maryland and four hundred plus

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Speaker 3: yards Northwestern was able to move the ball on them,

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Speaker 3: so I think you have to take the points. I

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Speaker 3: think this line should be closer to like four four

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Speaker 3: and a half. I think Indiana has proven that they

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Speaker 3: deserve to be already higher, but not significantly higher than Nebraska.

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Speaker 3: So I think the inflation has hit the market on

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Speaker 3: the Hoosiers. I'm taking Nebraska, and mister Matt Ruhle I

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Speaker 3: mentioned underdogs coaches that have been good as underdogs since

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Speaker 3: two thousand and five. Out of five hundred and ninety

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Speaker 3: five coaches rule fifth most profitable as an underdog thirty

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Speaker 3: five eighteen and one against spread sixty six percent, covering

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Speaker 3: by four and a half points per game. That includes

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Speaker 3: nineteen and nine on the road, just under sixty eight percent.

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Speaker 3: Gimme corn in Bloomington. I think I saw you put

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Speaker 3: it a bet on Indiana first quarter. Is that your

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Speaker 3: angle here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: It is.

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Speaker 1: I think Nebraska at this number at six and a

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Speaker 1: half or seven, I think is a good bet. I

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Speaker 1: make this game Indiana minus two. The problem is the

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Speaker 1: strength of schedules on these two teams. You don't really

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Speaker 1: know what the ceiling in the floor is for the

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Speaker 1: two of these teams. And I think that is why

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Speaker 1: I'm going to watch this. You know, very detailed and

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Speaker 1: just put a small bit in on an angle that

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Speaker 1: I really liked. And I think one of the angles

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Speaker 1: is Signetti is fantastic off of a bye week. Dating

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Speaker 1: back to his FCS days as the head coach of

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Speaker 1: Elon and James Madison, Signetti has only lost one game

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Speaker 1: off of a bye week, and that was to Louisville

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Speaker 1: and twenty twenty two when he was at James Madison.

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Speaker 1: So there's no shame in that, as Louisville was, you know,

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Speaker 1: much better than James Madison in those days. Yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: pretty simple. I win, Google me, and Nebraska's not been

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Speaker 1: very good in offensive finishing drives. They've had forty two

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Speaker 1: drives get in past the forty yard line. That's great

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Speaker 1: so far, but they've only averaged three point two points

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Speaker 1: per trip. But the other reason that I like Indiana

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Speaker 1: enough to where I'm probably gonna find a way to

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Speaker 1: parlay them on the money line. There's a massive special

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Speaker 1: teams difference here, massive sp plus as Indiana is the

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Speaker 1: number one team overall and special teams and then Nebraska

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Speaker 1: is one hundred and twenty nine. That's probably gonna come

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Speaker 1: into this game at some point. And finally, yes, Indiana

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Speaker 1: in the first quarter is the bet that I made

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Speaker 1: on the money line. Indiana has not allowed a single

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Speaker 1: point in the first quarter this entire season. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to roll with that here. I will find a way

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Speaker 1: to get some Indiana parlays in. But I agree Nebraska

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Speaker 1: is the play all the way down to about three

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Speaker 1: and a half for three.

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Speaker 3: My prediction, Nebraska is up for late kicking a field

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Speaker 3: goal to go up seven, push it right. Indiana comes

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Speaker 3: down and scores the game winning touchdown. That would be

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Speaker 3: the most Nebraska ending possible.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna absolutely murder you.

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Speaker 3: And by the way, Indiana wins this game, collegewall PLAYFF

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Speaker 3: talks really gonna pick up. Earlier in the week, we

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Speaker 3: were talking collegewall playffield and I was going through the

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Speaker 3: big ten teams. I didn't even mention Indiana. I got

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Speaker 3: a couple of messages with Indiana fans. I apologize, but

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Speaker 3: take care of business here and the playoff talk will

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Speaker 3: certainly pick up. Let's go on to our second marquee

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Speaker 3: matchup of the weekend, Alabama at Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: We need go keep out Romance un two weeks or

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Speaker 1: something stupid as pal Oh.

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Speaker 3: I have no idea on this game. I want no

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Speaker 3: part of it. These are two teams that I've been

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Speaker 3: fading the past couple of weeks, really off season, that

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Speaker 3: I thought were overrated. Well now they play each other.

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Speaker 3: Alabama three point favorite here taking a bit of money.

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Speaker 3: Midweek total fifty six and a half. These two teams

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Speaker 3: are mirors to me. I think they were both overrated.

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Speaker 3: Maybe at the end of the day. I mean, look,

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Speaker 3: they both come out, they take care of business. They

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Speaker 3: look really good against weak competition. We've seen that all year,

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Speaker 3: and then they step up in class A bit and

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Speaker 3: they get upset. I mean, look, Alabama loses to Vandy,

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Speaker 3: Tennessee loses to Arkansas. They both come back home and

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Speaker 3: bounce back spots, and they both should have lost again

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Speaker 3: to teams that they were significant favorites over to over

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Speaker 3: two touchdown favorites in vote. Tennessee's secondary is extremely vulnerable.

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Speaker 3: Ken Alabama's offensive line protect enough. That's the key on

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Speaker 3: that side of the ball. Alabama secondary is also extremely vulnerable.

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Speaker 3: Can Nico complete a pass downfield? I don't know. Can

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Speaker 3: their tackles play better? I have no idea this game is.

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Speaker 3: I have no feel for it. I show just some

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Speaker 3: pure numbers perspective. That three I show a little value

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Speaker 3: on Tennessee. But I mean Nico's dead last in QBR

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Speaker 3: among all SEC quarterbacks. He those number one. By the way, diego, diego.

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Speaker 3: This surpassed for me. But I think you have a

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Speaker 3: you have a strong feel I do.

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Speaker 1: I think you said on Sunday, this is the broken

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Speaker 1: Alabama defense going up against the broken Tennessee offense and

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Speaker 1: who would win that. That is the biggest handicap of

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Speaker 1: this game. So I think real quick when you look

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Speaker 1: at the other side of the ball, I think Alabama's

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Speaker 1: offense is going to cook here. Jalen Milroe still throws

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Speaker 1: the most beautiful deep pass in college football. He has

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Speaker 1: not recorded a turnover worthy play on throws past twenty

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Speaker 1: yards since the beginning of twenty twenty three zero. I

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Speaker 1: expect him to hit Ryan Williams against this extremely inexperienced

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Speaker 1: Tennessee secondary. And when you ask how inexperienced is it,

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Speaker 1: I believe Taylor Green, in combination with DJ Lagway and

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Speaker 1: Graham Mertz, recorded seventeen explosive passes in the last two

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Speaker 1: games against this Tennessee secondary. I have no worries about

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Speaker 1: Jalen Milroe hitting his targets downfield. Will there be pressure,

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Speaker 1: I'm sure, Will he escape the pocket, I'm sure will

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Speaker 1: be a mistake probably where he gets hit and there's

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Speaker 1: maybe a sack or something. Probably, But when that connection

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Speaker 1: is made, when that powder keg of Ryan Williams and

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Speaker 1: Jayla Milrow hits, it's gonna hit and it's gonna be scores.

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Speaker 1: Big problem for the Tennessee defense. Also Keenan Pilly, middle linebacker,

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Speaker 1: captain of the defense, wearing the green dot on the

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Speaker 1: back of his helmet means he has been the communication

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Speaker 1: guy with defensive coordinator Tim Banks. He is out for

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Speaker 1: the season. Tim Banks and his wife were crying. They

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Speaker 1: missed this guy so much, like it is a huge

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Speaker 1: loss to this team. As of Monday, they come out

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Speaker 1: of practice. Josh Hipel says, we haven't identified who the

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Speaker 1: new green dot is. That's a problem. You have to

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Speaker 1: know who you're sending the communication into. So that was

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Speaker 1: one reason why I liked Alabama. But then let's flip

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Speaker 1: over to the biggest handicap in this game. What is

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Speaker 1: going on with this Tennessee offense? Right? Because you have

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Speaker 1: to ask between these two units, what's more broken now?

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Speaker 1: Nico he's been really bad with pressure. Six completions on

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Speaker 1: forty six dropbacks that have pressure, a pressure to sack

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Speaker 1: ratio of twenty five percent. He can't get out of

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Speaker 1: his own way.

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Speaker 3: He looks like he has no confidence too.

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Speaker 1: Exactly. This is not like a Hndon Hooker run offense,

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Speaker 1: which is what we thought we had about three or

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Speaker 1: four weeks ago. He still has not recorded a big

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Speaker 1: time throw in a crowded pocket, and Nico and Tennessee's

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks as a whole haven't had any advantages against man

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Speaker 1: coverage when Josh Hipel has been the head coach since

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. Now I bring that up. Why is

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Speaker 1: it so important that Tennessee's offense is going to go

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Speaker 1: against man coverage? Because that is what Cain Womack is

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Speaker 1: running at Alabama right now at a forty percent clip,

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Speaker 1: one of the highest man rates in college football. So

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Speaker 1: you have to go ahead and diagnose from an x's

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Speaker 1: and o's standpoint, what does it mean when Tennessee is

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Speaker 1: going to see man coverage? You have The reason why

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Speaker 1: hypel system works in college and not in the NFL

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Speaker 1: is because it's wide splits. They use sideline to sideline

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Speaker 1: and the hash marks are out. They want to spread

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Speaker 1: the field out. That makes your outside linebackers declare who

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Speaker 1: they're covering in man coverage. That's where Alabama has a

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Speaker 1: monster a vantage here. Jihad Campbell and Deontay Lawson. Geid Campbell,

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Speaker 1: the outside linebacker for Alabama, ranks fourth of all individual

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Speaker 1: man coverage pass defenders in PFF. Fourth Deontay Lawson. He's

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Speaker 1: fifteenth in that ranking of all defenders. So Alabama's got

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Speaker 1: it from a man coverage standpoint at the linebacker unit

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Speaker 1: that's going to help stop those slants that turn into explosives.

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Speaker 1: Now you combine that with Tennessee losing their captain, the

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Speaker 1: Green dot communication guy on defense, I'm taking Alabama and

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Speaker 1: swallowing the points here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't quite get there. The one thing I

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Speaker 3: will say is, whoever wins this game, I'll be looking

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Speaker 3: to fade. This is an elimination game the college will

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Speaker 3: because what we see is for each team. I don't

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Speaker 3: think either team is running the table.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I had a bet preseason. My whole Tennessee handicap

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Speaker 1: was not making the College Football Playoff minus one eighty.

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Speaker 1: So I need this Alabama win pretty bad. But at

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Speaker 1: the same time, Tennessee going to go to Athens and

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Speaker 1: win against Georgia at No. Absolutely not. I don't care

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Speaker 1: what state the Bulldogs are in.

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Speaker 3: Here, it just means more. Let's wander our third marquee

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Speaker 3: matchup of the day. We're gonna stay in the SEC

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Speaker 3: head down to Austin for Georgia at number one Texas.

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Speaker 3: This line just looks weird because if you just look

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Speaker 3: at this game, you've the number one next to Texas.

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Speaker 3: Georgia catching over a field goal doesn't happen often. This

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Speaker 3: is a team the only team to beat them is

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Speaker 3: Alabama over the last five years, right, the team that

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Speaker 3: hasn't lost anybody else. I've read the market wrong in

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Speaker 3: this game because I said I just went four with Georgia.

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Speaker 3: They got to four. I bet it well, it went

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Speaker 3: to five. Should have waited?

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Speaker 1: Is that justin Isaiah Bond's news, Because I mean what,

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Speaker 1: I did not understand this move whatsoever.

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Speaker 3: I don't know. I didn't see a service release or

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Speaker 3: there was a group midweek, there was a wave that

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Speaker 3: came in and hit this. So I'm not sure, but

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Speaker 3: my logic here, I mean, Georgia definitely has issues, right.

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Speaker 3: There's some injuries in the interior. The offensive line, the

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Speaker 3: wider receiver room, which lost some key guys they thought

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Speaker 3: they were gonna have or in this season is not

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Speaker 3: as talented as it's been. They obviously miss mcconkee and Bowers.

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Speaker 3: The defense, the defensive line has had injuries. The secondary

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Speaker 3: isn't your typical elite Georgia's secondary They've really struggled against

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Speaker 3: play action. I mean even last week Aassissippi State that's

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Speaker 3: somewhere where yours usually thrive. So this isn't your typical

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Speaker 3: elite Georgia. There's still one of the best teams in

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Speaker 3: the country. The question you have to ask yourself is

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Speaker 3: Texas that elite elite team this year? I'm just not

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Speaker 3: sure we have an elite elite team this year. The

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Speaker 3: talent is just so much more dispersed, and you're seeing

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Speaker 3: that with Georgia. They don't as much depth, a key

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Speaker 3: depth in Kirby's spoken about this, So I think there's

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Speaker 3: a really good chance that these two teams are pretty

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Speaker 3: equal and you're gonna get Georgia as the more desperate

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Speaker 3: team here in this new college football playoff? Are they

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Speaker 3: already have a loss? Texas can afford a loss here

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Speaker 3: much more so than Georgia. Georgia doesn't have to come

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Speaker 3: out come out with some fire here. Hopefully they learned

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Speaker 3: from the Alabama experience, but they've come out slow all season.

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Speaker 3: But we've seen Georgia be battle tested. They went into Alabama.

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Speaker 3: They're not going to be shell shocked here. There's still

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Speaker 3: questions with Texas. How good are they? Yes, they've been dominant,

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Speaker 3: but I mean we've seen this time and time again

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Speaker 3: this year. Tennessee just talked about look dominant. Now they've

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Speaker 3: come back down to Earth Alabama.

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Speaker 1: Oh Miss.

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Speaker 3: You can go on and on with these SEC teams.

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Speaker 3: There's a reason what SEC underdogs are. Let me look

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Speaker 3: this up. SEC underdogs are like eighteen and six against

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Speaker 3: the spread and league play this year, covering by eight

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Speaker 3: points per game. You've seen a lot of these teams

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Speaker 3: come back down. Even Ohio State looks dominant, steps up

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Speaker 3: in class loses to Oregon. There's a chance that's the

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Speaker 3: case with Texas because who have they faced, Like, they

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Speaker 3: haven't faced a competent passing attack yet. I get and look,

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Speaker 3: Texas is great. They might be the best team in

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Speaker 3: the country, but the defense is yet be tested. And

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Speaker 3: Carson back, he's playing very well. He is going to

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Speaker 3: test this secondary, which I mean, who's the best quarterback

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Speaker 3: that they faced this year is probably Folon Nicolosi.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think Colorado State what ran forty times

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Speaker 1: and only threw like twelve times in that game.

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Speaker 3: There's holes on this Georgia team. But there could be

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Speaker 3: some holes that we just haven't seen yet with this

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Speaker 3: Texas team. So I like the Dogs, what do you

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Speaker 3: see here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean, at what point is your defensive line

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Speaker 1: so beat up and not creating pressure that you simply

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Speaker 1: just drop it into coverage and ask your defensive ends

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Speaker 1: to go into the flats and cover running backs. So

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Speaker 1: these press conferences every week are generally the same thing

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Speaker 1: from Kirby Smart and the other staff about the defensive line,

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Speaker 1: which is, we're hurt, we're injured. On the interior, like,

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Speaker 1: how healthy is Michael Williams because we keep hearing that

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Speaker 1: he's ready, he's ready to go hot? Is he? So,

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Speaker 1: you know, an interior Christian Miller, he's dealing with injuries

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Speaker 1: that limited in practice too. So if Georgia, you know,

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Speaker 1: if Georgia can't get any kind of pass rush here,

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Speaker 1: I'm wondering what kind of defense they show to Quinnywers

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Speaker 1: and everything else. So I'm not going to sit here

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Speaker 1: and say that, you know, Georgia's defense is turned the corner.

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Speaker 1: I haven't seen it. The key to the game for

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Speaker 1: me is where the Bulldog is need to attack on offense,

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Speaker 1: and that is something that has not been proven yet

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Speaker 1: on this tech If Texas wants to win the national title,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna have to defend the rush in between the tackles.

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Speaker 1: It's something that a couple of teams have been able

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Speaker 1: to expose. The Longhorns allowed Mississippi State last week and

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Speaker 1: Colorado State earlier this season. They're rushing attacks to go

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Speaker 1: well over the mark of forty eight percent success rate

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Speaker 1: during the game dashed them at some points. The Texas

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Speaker 1: defensive interior is unproven. They're mid fbs and defending inside

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Speaker 1: zone read. I think that's what's key here because Trevor

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Speaker 1: Etn that's all he runs with Georgia is the inside

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Speaker 1: zone read. The problem with Georgia is they haven't played

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Speaker 1: a full four quarter game yet. What is it with

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Speaker 1: this team? We saw this shit against Kent State a

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Speaker 1: couple of years ago, Like Kin State was holding on

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Speaker 1: to ten point deficit at halftime. I think to Georgia,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know what it is with these guys,

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Speaker 1: but you're right about Carson Beck. He's going to go

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Speaker 1: right at the back of his secondary I think there's

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Speaker 1: a path for Carson Beck to get deep down the field. Now.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to play the Georgia first half number instead

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Speaker 1: of the full game. A little nervous about when Georgia

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Speaker 1: wants to play all four quarters. They might not even

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Speaker 1: show up in the first quarter to get in here

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Speaker 1: and the bet won't even matter. But Texas historically has

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Speaker 1: been terrible after Red River, especially in the sark Era

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Speaker 1: lost to Oklahoma State in his first year beat iway

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Speaker 1: stayed by a field goal two years ago, and struggled

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Speaker 1: against Houston won by one possession. So I think Georgia

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Speaker 1: is in a really good spot here. I know for

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Speaker 1: a fact that they didn't send blitz last week against

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Speaker 1: Mississipi State and allowed Mississippi State on offense to do

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Speaker 1: whatever they want, including averaging like five point three yards

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Speaker 1: per rush for Mississippi State. So I know Georgia went

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Speaker 1: based defense and didn't show anything on tape. So I

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Speaker 1: expect an inspired effort here from the Georgia Bulldogs, and

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Speaker 1: I expect Texas to have some sort of hangover for

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Speaker 1: a few series at start this game.

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Speaker 3: Excited to watch. We'll learn a lot more about Texas

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Speaker 3: for sure, and we'll see if Georgia can put together

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Speaker 3: a full four quarters all right, before we get to

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Speaker 3: the rundown, I'll do a quick rundown of team quarterback

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Speaker 3: news Worth monitoring beames you see Byron Brown, question mark

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Speaker 3: and I you you want to talk about some quarterbacks?

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Speaker 2: Cool?

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Speaker 3: The mid season MAC Manifesto is gonna be a gonna

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Speaker 3: be tough because there's a lot of quarterback injuries in

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Speaker 3: the mac n I u Ethan Half Hampton questionable, Bowling Green,

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Speaker 3: Connor Baslac questionable. His backup Connor Camden Orth or Connor Worth.

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Speaker 3: I always forget his first name has been now Lucian

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Speaker 3: and Anderson, their third string was in there last week.

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Speaker 3: He was atrocious. Central Michigan their starting quarterback out for

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Speaker 3: the season. Bert Emmanuel was out last week as well.

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Speaker 3: I think we'll be back this week. The freshman Tyler

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Speaker 3: Jefferson came in last week. It's a mess. Kent States

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Speaker 3: down to the third stringer Toledo Tucker Gleason got hurt

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Speaker 3: last week. Georgia Tech Haines King questionable, Tea Lee say

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Speaker 3: he's out. Frank Key said he's still day today in

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Speaker 3: the game time to say. He said. He opted not

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Speaker 3: to disclose the QB plan for Saturday against Notre Dame,

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Speaker 3: which is smart. I mean, why would you Arizona State,

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Speaker 3: Sam Levitt out, get ready for the Jeff Simms Experience.

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Speaker 3: Florida Mertz out, DJ Lagway first SEC Star, Arkansas kJ cleared.

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Speaker 3: Talk about that game later. Michigan turning the Jack Tuttle

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Speaker 3: the mot an orgy guy Oak State. We'll talk about

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Speaker 3: that later. Looks like they're moving on from Alan Bowman. Purdue.

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Speaker 3: Looks like gonna be Brown the backup Brown again this week. Houston.

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Speaker 3: I assume they're gonna be sticking with Chris should be

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Speaker 3: an upgrade. UCF Colson. Their freshman Colson started last week

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Speaker 3: was a disaster. They went to Jacory Brown. He's getting

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Speaker 3: first team reps this week. I'd expect him to start.

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Speaker 3: Aj looks like he's been put on the shelf. Utah.

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Speaker 3: It's the Wilson Show now, not Colin Wilson, but Zach

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Speaker 3: Wilson's little brother. San Jose State. I assume they're gonna

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Speaker 3: keep playing musical chairs with Egot and Brown. Yukon Worth monitoring.

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Speaker 3: There doesn't really matter who their quarterback is. Not a

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Speaker 3: huge drop off. Charlotte could see the return of Max Brown.

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Speaker 3: More on that later. He cu I don't know it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be go r Sierra Hawser. We'll see more on

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Speaker 3: that later. Air Force. They made a quarterback change last year.

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Speaker 3: They had three listed as the co starters. The only

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Speaker 3: one who didn't play was the original starter. Yet Hayes

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Speaker 3: and Johnson taking all the reps, they're the better runners.

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Speaker 3: I think that's the smart move there. Georgia Southern French

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Speaker 3: cleared up. Concussion will go. By the way. Do you

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Speaker 3: see that Georgia Southern against that game last week against

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Speaker 3: Marshall They had Braxton coming in, just fumble it. That

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Speaker 3: was That game was wild. Georgia State could be Christian

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Speaker 3: Vayer or could be Gibson, not sure, Odu Grant Wilson

401
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Speaker 3: not sure in his status. Keep an eye on there.

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Speaker 3: He's missed the last couple. So that's some of the

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Speaker 3: quarterback news. All right, let's get to the rundown here,

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Speaker 3: run through. Let's go like seven games here quickly. Miami

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Speaker 3: at Louisville. I would have put a lot of money

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Speaker 3: on Louisville making the spots piece it didn't. I needed

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Speaker 3: a little more, but Miam's coming off of a bye.

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Speaker 3: Louisville hasn't been that impressive. It's hard not to envision

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Speaker 3: this game being a shootout, like Miami's given up a

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Speaker 3: ton of explosives. Louisville's been very explosive. What do you

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Speaker 3: see here?

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Speaker 1: There's going to be havoc. I think that's the thing.

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Speaker 1: I remember the handicap of Miami always starts off, will

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Speaker 1: there be havoc? So this is a battle for the

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Speaker 1: Howard Schnellenberger Trophy here and Tyler Schuk is going to

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Speaker 1: go up against his old head coach. It was Mario

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Speaker 1: Christaball at Oregon, so there's a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: connection there. We'll see if Shuk has some revenge he

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Speaker 1: wants to get out here. But Miami's off there by

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Speaker 1: after a twenty five point comeback that I don't think

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Speaker 1: anybody saw at one o'clock in the morning, and Louisville's

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Speaker 1: lost two straight to Notre Dame in SMU, but they

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Speaker 1: bounce back with a narrow road win against Virginia. It's

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a struggle. The Cardinals have an

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Speaker 1: advantage on the ground with Isaac Brown. He got up

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Speaker 1: to twenty carries against Virginia for one hundred and forty

427
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Speaker 1: six yards, and the Hurricanes have been thirty sixth in

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Speaker 1: defensive rushing success rate, which is a little bit surprising

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Speaker 1: because they've had such a soft schedule of offenses so far.

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Speaker 1: Really one of the more potent running attacks, if you

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Speaker 1: want to call it, that did they face is Virginia

432
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 1: Tech touton and drones generated a sixty four percent success

433
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,439
Speaker 1: rate on the ground. So I'm not positive that Miami's defense,

434
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 1: which can cause a lot of is really good against

435
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 1: the rush. Then on the other side of the ball,

436
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 1: I think Louisville is legitimately tested on defense and going

437
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 1: to be able to get in cam Woard's face. Their

438
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 1: pass rush is top twenty per PFF. Key to beating

439
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 1: Miami is creating havoc. So I do like Louisville here,

440
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:18,160
Speaker 1: but I do agree with you on the number. Four

441
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 1: would be the last I buy it at. But I

442
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 1: still I'd be nervous the entire game with that. But

443
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 1: I like Louisville in the spot. Probably a good live

444
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 1: betting game. There's gonna be swings in this game, massive swings.

445
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 1: I think at the nump current number, I lean Louisville,

446
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:32,920
Speaker 1: but don't love it. They haven't been that impressive. I

447
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 1: mean they got lucky, They got lucky against Georgia Tech.

448
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,920
Speaker 1: I mean, granted, they got a bit unlucky against Notre Dame,

449
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 1: but lucky last week against Virginia.

450
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:49,120
Speaker 3: And there's just holes on this team. Offensive line isn't

451
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:53,360
Speaker 3: as good, defense isn't as good. If that's some injuries

452
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 3: as well, so Lean Louisville, but nothing strong Ucla at Rutgers. Man,

453
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:04,360
Speaker 3: and this line has come down. I had Rutgers circled.

454
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 3: Can I trust the Greek water pistol to lay points

455
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:09,400
Speaker 3: with him?

456
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 1: The Greek rifle?

457
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 3: I mean they got embarrassed because austin the rest of

458
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 3: they got embarrassed last week at home. They're staying home

459
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 3: and you see la. I mean they played four top

460
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 3: twenty teams in a row then losing heartbreaking fashion in Minnesota.

461
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 3: Now have to come across the country to play Rutgers.

462
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 3: That's a brutal spot. Can we lay it here with Rutgers?

463
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 1: I want Rutgers. The problem is you're right, the numbers

464
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,360
Speaker 1: going the other way, and frankly, I don't like laying

465
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:42,919
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of points with Rutgers. So it can

466
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 1: just keep moving until I decide to buy him. And

467
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 1: what are you? Are you scared to take Athan calliac Manus.

468
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I think it's really scary that

469
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 1: they had three interceptions over the last two games. At

470
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 1: Rutgers is like one of the best havoc allowed offenses

471
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 1: in the nation. Their thirteenth right now. They just don't

472
00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,360
Speaker 1: make a lot of mistakes and caliac Manus has more

473
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 1: room to throw than other quarterbacks, so he should have

474
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,880
Speaker 1: been better at that. I do, you know, I think

475
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 1: if you want Rutgers, you're not looking to take a

476
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 1: lot of points. Just let that thing come on down.

477
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 1: You say, his third toughest strength to schedule in the nation,

478
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 1: which is kind of puts a lot of noise in

479
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,400
Speaker 1: their numbers because their numbers look really bad, but they've

480
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,879
Speaker 1: played an extremely tough schedule about a dozen analytics to

481
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 1: say that they can't do anything on defense or offense,

482
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 1: but we know what their identity is. On offense under

483
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator Eric b Enemy, they want to throw all

484
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 1: the time. With Ethan Garber's he's been pretty horrible. A

485
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 1: forty nine ratio in td I iNTS and big time throws,

486
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 1: a turnover worthy plays. It plays right in the teeth

487
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 1: of Rutgers defense, which is the secondary. Their top thirty

488
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 1: in every pass defensive metric that there is, and Rutgers

489
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 1: should be able to run all day on this Bruins defense.

490
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:50,719
Speaker 1: Kyle Monagai a thirty eight misstackles forced seven tds already

491
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 1: this year. I want Rutgers. I want a shorter spread.

492
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 1: It could be a money line parlay. Maybe mix it

493
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 1: in with Indiana. I haven't decided, but their Rutgers is the.

494
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:03,239
Speaker 3: Look Auburn at Missouri. I like Auburn here. Look by

495
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 3: the way I mentioned coaches off of byes and that

496
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 3: are good as underdogs. That fits here with Auburn and

497
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 3: Hugh Freez, who's still one of the best game planners

498
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 3: in college football. So I assume we'll have a really

499
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:17,119
Speaker 3: good game plan here to attack a very vulnerable Missouri defense.

500
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,479
Speaker 3: I mean that I questions about this Missouri defense all

501
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 3: over edge, rush, linebacker, secondary after what they lost last year,

502
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 3: and they haven't really answered any of those questions. Freeze

503
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 3: thirty and fourteen against the spread, sixty eight percent as

504
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 3: an underdog covered by a touchdown per game, eighteen and

505
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,360
Speaker 3: nine against the number against SEC competition as an underdog.

506
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,159
Speaker 3: But I mean, you look at this Auburn team. They

507
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 3: should have beat Oklahoma. They probably should have beat Arkansas,

508
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 3: they just had untimely turnovers. Meanwhile, Missouri, you look at

509
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,880
Speaker 3: their three data points against quality opponents. They got blasted

510
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,719
Speaker 3: by A and M. They should have lost to Vandy

511
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 3: at home, and they were trailed by double digits to

512
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 3: Boston College at home. They've played the significantly easier schedule.

513
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 3: Auburn has better numbers, and some of Auburn's numbers include

514
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 3: Hank burn On a quarterback. Peyton Thorn has been much better.

515
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 3: Think Kank Browns had like eighty or ninety snaps. I

516
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 3: don't see much separation between these teams. Like I look

517
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 3: at my power ratings right now, and in that like

518
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 3: eighteen to twenty five range eighteen to like twenty eight,

519
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 3: there's like a ten. It's all these SEC teams like Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky,

520
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 3: South Carolina, Missouri. I just don't think there's much separation

521
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,200
Speaker 3: between all those teams in that second tier. And Tennessee

522
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 3: might be headed right right.

523
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: You're gonna go past them below the standard.

524
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, they might just keep on dropping if Nico doesn't

525
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 3: clean it up. But I just don't think there's much

526
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 3: separation here. Missouri off two straight road games Auburn off

527
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,399
Speaker 3: of the by I think Alburn'll be able to move

528
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 3: the ball year. They shown they can move the ball

529
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 3: against good defenses all year, and they put up three

530
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 3: hundred ards against Oklahoma in the first half War Eagle year.

531
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I dislike both of these teams. But I can

532
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 1: only point out one problem with Auburn. I can point

533
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 1: out multiple problems with Missouri. I mean, with Auburn, you're

534
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 1: dead last and net turnover margin, you're minus eleven on

535
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 1: the season, You've given away fifteen balls, you've only gotten

536
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 1: four back. That makes me a little cautious against the

537
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 1: Missouri defense right now. That I believe is they've gained

538
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 1: seven turnovers this season, five of them all of interceptions.

539
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:14,439
Speaker 1: So that's that's it. That's the hesitation with Auburn, right

540
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 1: is just from a turnover perspective that you and I

541
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 1: both know can't last forever. We don't think, so we'll

542
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 1: see about that. But on the other side, like Missouri,

543
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 1: I have no love for this team. As amazing, as

544
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 1: high as I was on them last year, I don't

545
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 1: have any of those feelings for them this year. This

546
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 1: Missoo's secondary. It just has not been good whatsoever. They

547
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 1: can't contain explosives. They're one hundred and thirty first and

548
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 1: standard downs explosives That means in early plays like first

549
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 1: and ten second and seven standard downs. Here, Auburn is

550
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:43,880
Speaker 1: gonna be able to hit some explosive plays and create

551
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 1: a TV and I think specifically it's gonna be Candre

552
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 1: Lambert Smith out of the slot and then offensively. I

553
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:50,920
Speaker 1: don't know what's going on with Missouri and Kirby Moore

554
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 1: electric last year with Cody Schrader, he's not on the

555
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 1: team anymore. They all of a sudden cannot create explosives.

556
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 1: They are one hundred and twenty first in passing EPA.

557
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 1: I don't know what's happened to Brady Cook. I don't

558
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 1: know if Luther Burden's on the back of a milk

559
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,239
Speaker 1: carton in Columbia, Missouri. I don't know. But they're one

560
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty versus passing EPA. They're even worse than

561
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,680
Speaker 1: finishing drives. This offense is broken, Drink get it fixed.

562
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 1: But I like Auburn and their.

563
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 3: Best back man day now. He might be out this

564
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 3: week too. He's having six years per carry. If his

565
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 3: backup Carrol's only at four point eight.

566
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 1: So, by the way, I don't think this number's note moving.

567
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:21,120
Speaker 1: I think it's going down to two and a half

568
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,959
Speaker 1: or three. So I want to get Auburn. Yeah, if

569
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 1: you want Auburn and get it.

570
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 3: I don't think there's much difference in this team. Think

571
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 3: this should be three. South Carolina Oklahoma.

572
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 1: We better bring it. Bring your mouthpiece.

573
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 3: I think Southcotta wins this game, but can't get here

574
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:37,360
Speaker 3: at this number. How do you score in this gay?

575
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 3: I know this is total super low, but I would

576
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 3: lean under here as well. First to twenty. Hey, maybe

577
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 3: that's generous.

578
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 1: Look if there's anybody that would like to tap out

579
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 1: but it wants to lead. Oh that's what you do

580
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 1: at the dual, right now?

581
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 3: Oklahoma one and a half point favorite, home favorite. As

582
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 3: we talk anything here.

583
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I bet Oklahoma and I actually took a bad number.

584
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 1: I thought the number would go up for Oklahoma. I

585
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 1: was expecting some positive health updates. Jel Faruke had a

586
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 1: six week injury after the Temple game for Oklahoma. Except

587
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 1: it's been seven weeks now and he still hasn't been cleared.

588
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 1: He's not even questionable, So I thought Jel Fruke, we

589
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: would get some positivity in the white.

590
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 3: Works is questionable, right, hasn't been updated yet.

591
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 1: Works is questionable. Soft tissue injury, It's like, what is

592
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 1: going on in Norman. It's like, I mean the kid,

593
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 1: I mean, you go there to be a doctor. What's

594
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 1: wrong with the doctors of Norman these days? Can we

595
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 1: get this wide receiver unit to get healthy? And the

596
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 1: South Carolina offense just isn't trustworthy whatsoever. I mean, they've

597
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 1: allowed more sacks than any other team in FBS. They've

598
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 1: allowed twenty six. But you know what, that's good. That's

599
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 1: a good thing. They've had eight fumbles on the air.

600
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 1: It's the worst mark of any offense in the country.

601
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 1: You can't trust them whatsoever.

602
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 3: Good.

603
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 1: So what are we talking about here? In this game?

604
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 1: It's South Carolina's broken offensive line and knack for career,

605
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 1: causing turnovers all the time against themselves. Running inside zone

606
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 1: with Raheem Sanders and Leonora's sellers. It's been a good

607
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 1: combination for highlight reels. It's been a lot lot of

608
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 1: fun to watch because it's either a disaster or it's

609
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 1: a boom play.

610
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 3: But is that all you need here? That's why I

611
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 3: think South Carolina wins it's game because I just think

612
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 3: South Carolina, like I don't think either offense is gonna

613
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 3: have much success good, probably not gonna have much success

614
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 3: through the air good. But I trust South Carolina is

615
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 3: just ability to hit a couple explosive runs. Did South

616
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 3: Carolina defensive line should eat Oklahoma's offensive line alive?

617
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 1: That's good.

618
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 3: I think that's ultimately the difference.

619
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 1: The reason I bet Oklahoma is for one simple fact.

620
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 1: Both of these teams run heavy inside zone Reid. Oklahoma's

621
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 1: defensive line has a very high fifty nine percent success

622
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 1: rate against inside zone reid as where South Carolina's defense

623
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 1: is forty four percent success rate against inside zone. Based

624
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 1: on that alone, I like oh U's defensive front seven.

625
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 1: I thought it would go up higher. I didn't know

626
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 1: it's gonna come back down. But I'm sticking with the Sooners.

627
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 3: Michigan at Illinois, I was waiting on this line and

628
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 3: it got hit and I couldn't catch up. I was like,

629
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 3: you gotta be kidding me. I wanted Michigan here. I

630
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 3: think this Illinois team stinks. They even getting lucky all

631
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 3: year year. I mean, they should have lost the Purdue.

632
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 3: They should have lost by about forty to Penn State.

633
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,959
Speaker 3: He got lucky against Kansas, the Kansas team that has

634
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 3: not been very good, winning overtime against Nebraska. Michigan coming

635
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 3: off a bye, turning to Jack Tuttle. Can the receivers

636
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 3: do anything here? I'm not sure, but you know he's

637
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 3: gonna get all the reps. I think that'll help. I

638
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 3: think the Michigan win this game in the trenches. I

639
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 3: think their offensive line they made some changes up front

640
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 3: which I think will be will lead to increased efficiency.

641
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 3: Their defensive line should dominate the Illinois offensive line. Gonna

642
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 3: get pressure here on all Meyer, all Myers do for

643
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 3: just a complete stinker. The turnovers are coming people. He's

644
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 3: not coming here.

645
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 1: It's coming here. Yeah.

646
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 3: So yeah, I like Michigan. I just can't like three

647
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 3: and a half. So but I think Michigan gets it

648
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 3: done on the road.

649
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, absolutely, Consider that Michigan has a much

650
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 1: tougher strength of schedule than Illinois. Illinois outside the top

651
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 1: fifty and who they've faced so far this year. Like

652
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 1: you just said, Michigan is the number one lass rush

653
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 1: unit and a defense in all the nation per PFF

654
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 1: and they're going up against.

655
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 3: The Illinois offense line is bad, real bad.

656
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 1: They're one hundred and fifteenth and havoc allowed. They cannot

657
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: pass block for Almeyer. There's some problems coming here for

658
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 1: this Illinois offenses. If there weren't some already, you go

659
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 1: to the other side of the ball. I'm not sure

660
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 1: if it matters. A tuddle is back for this game

661
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 1: because Illinois can't defend the run. They're outside the top

662
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 1: one hundred line yards on. Yeah, so I think. I

663
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,480
Speaker 1: think Michigan apps. I know it got hit and you

664
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 1: don't want to lay a lot of points with a

665
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 1: team like this, But I don't know how in the

666
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 1: world you would ever take Illinois here.

667
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 3: USC at Maryland. I'm ready to be hurt. I'm on

668
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 3: the turps.

669
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 1: That's what Maryland does.

670
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 3: Do you agree here?

671
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,080
Speaker 1: I do. I don't know what the screen board, Yeah,

672
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 1: put it on the board. It's gonna get played. I

673
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 1: know it'll be in all my round robins. I know

674
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 1: I'm gonna play it on the spread. The main sticking

675
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 1: point here that I think everybody needs to realize is

676
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 1: the pass rush. USC is completely undersized on the offensive line,

677
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 1: espec at the tackle position. And they have no depth.

678
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 1: If you look at USC's numbers right now, one hundred

679
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 1: and twenty ninth in pass blocking, Maryland's going to eat

680
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 1: that up. They are top thirty in pass rush.

681
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 3: Great, some havoc that's what they're that's they're good at.

682
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 3: And USC hasn't been inte exposedus through the air. That's

683
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 3: where Maryland is really really poor the USC. You mentioned

684
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 3: depth USC defense too, that bear Alexander how gentry their

685
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 3: best linebacker, best run stopper hal for the season. Now

686
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 3: they lose their best edge rusher. I mean this defense

687
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 3: is descpind Now you're going across the country after a

688
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 3: brutal stretch, where is this team at? Mentally Cosmo playoff

689
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 3: hopes Big ten hopes are done cooked after the Penn

690
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 3: State loss, Maryland eating an extra day to prepare, it's

691
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 3: the second straight home game.

692
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, think about what I said earlier. Stuck

693
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 1: USC has gotten has looked bad in two trips to

694
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 1: the Central time zone. We'rerolling three time zones here. How

695
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 1: bad are they going to look?

696
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 3: First time they'll be playing on the East Coast like

697
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 3: a true East Coast game since twenty fourteen when they

698
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 3: lost to BC is seventeen point favorites. Let's see, they're

699
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 3: all in ten straight up, one and nine against the

700
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 3: spread in the Eastern or Central time zone since twenty eleven.

701
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 3: Pretty crazy. I think that the Terps are super live

702
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 3: here to pull off. Yeah, this game outright.

703
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:18,400
Speaker 1: No long lost the gold down DUSA.

704
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 3: So this time the balls choose man Colorado at Arizona.

705
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 3: I is Colorado game. It'll be chaotic, It'll come down

706
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter. That's all I know. I'm probably

707
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 3: not betting this game. Who do you got here?

708
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 1: I projected at one point. I completely agree with the

709
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 1: number going down. I don't think it's going to stop

710
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 1: until it gets closer to a pick. There's a major

711
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 1: advance for Colorado here, which is defensive finishing drives their

712
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 1: top twenty. We've given credit to Robert Livingston, the defensive

713
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 1: coordinator that came in from the Cincinnati Bengals. That's a

714
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 1: true reflection of him and what he's been able to

715
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 1: do when teams get close to scoring. Arizona has been

716
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,760
Speaker 1: horrible in scoring chances. There are one hundred and fifteenth

717
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 1: on offense. I think it plays a major factor here.

718
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 1: I think Colorado can get this win.

719
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to some trash. The trash

720
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 3: man pick of the week. I'm the trash man.

721
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 1: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it.

722
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 3: Totally unreliable, undependable it. That's it. You've been told off.

723
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 2: How do you like that?

724
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:18,919
Speaker 1: Good?

725
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 3: All right, it's time for some trash. Last week the

726
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:26,920
Speaker 3: trash went five and one, and Colin even had an

727
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 3: a bonus. I'll track that as well.

728
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: The Immaculate trash trash pick, the immaculate trash week.

729
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 3: That's what we had with Rice. Yeah, what a comeback.

730
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 3: So but Colin doesn't have a trash pick this week.

731
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 3: I'm sure a log like Kent stayed after we're done

732
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 3: recording like he did last week. So let's get to

733
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:51,879
Speaker 3: some trash here. I have four. Let's start with ball

734
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 3: State catching twenty six and a half against Fanny. This

735
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,280
Speaker 3: is the spot of the year. I mean, vandyoff upset

736
00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,399
Speaker 3: wins over Kentucky Alabama. They have number one Texas coming

737
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 3: to town next week. Wouldn't be surprised they rest guys,

738
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 3: Hoobby dealing with some injuries. Wouldn't be surprised they don't

739
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 3: show anything. Ball State has some juice and by the way,

740
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 3: this is just I am the paby a whisper. Take

741
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:12,760
Speaker 3: him as a double digit dog. Batim is a big favorite.

742
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 3: That's it. There's a Service Academy SEC team in an

743
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 3: awful spot here. Give me ball state, Agree or disagree.

744
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: I would like a better number. I'd like twenty eight,

745
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 1: but I'll agree with you, not only agree to have

746
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:28,320
Speaker 1: though not only agree. Yeah, I don't have full agree.

747
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 3: I don't know. I think you disagree with this one.

748
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:36,359
Speaker 3: We talked about this earlier in the week. Buffalo give

749
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,399
Speaker 3: me Western Michigan a Buffalo Buffalo two and on the MAC.

750
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 3: They have two double digit outright upsets. But they caught Toledo,

751
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,320
Speaker 3: who I think stinks in a great spot off the

752
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:47,319
Speaker 3: MAC revenge game. They caught Northern Illinois off the Notre

753
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:50,240
Speaker 3: Dame game. This offense is still the worst in the country.

754
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 3: They from a success rate point of view, they have

755
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 3: nothing in the passing attack. Western Michigan's defense is bad.

756
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:58,680
Speaker 3: I don't think Buffalo could take advantage. I trust a

757
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,680
Speaker 3: Western Michigan offense. They got all their guys back, Their

758
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 3: offensive line is healthy, got Gideon West up there, Buckley's back.

759
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,880
Speaker 3: They can run on this Buffalo team. Buffalo great linebackers,

760
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:13,879
Speaker 3: super undersized offensive defensive line, Western Michigan huge offensive line.

761
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 3: Gonna lean on them, manageable third downs. I trust their

762
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 3: offense more. It's healthy now they dealt with injuries. This

763
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:21,879
Speaker 3: is a team that, by the way, get a muff punt.

764
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 3: They win at Wisconsin, they convert inside the five, they

765
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 3: win at Marshall better than the record indicates. I think

766
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 3: Buffalo goes down here.

767
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 1: Agree or disagree, I actually agree with you completely. I

768
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 1: can't believe I'm back in Walt Bell here. But I'm

769
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 1: gonna take most of Michigan top twenty strength of schedule

770
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 1: compared to Buffalo, way outside the top eighty. I mean,

771
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 1: it's pretty softil Buffalo has done so far, and they

772
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 1: have some terrible offensive numbers.

773
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 3: I'm already fading Indiana. I t sweet every week. All

774
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 3: you got to do is wake up that Indiana Army

775
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:56,320
Speaker 3: and Navy. I'm fading Indiana with Nebraska. I'm also fading

776
00:37:56,680 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 3: Navy with Charlotte and my guy, Biff Pogey baby class

777
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 3: half full kind of guy.

778
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 1: I am so excited. I am a glass ten eighths

779
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 1: full guy. Well, I like it running over.

780
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 3: Number one they're coming off of by It's always important

781
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 3: when you're facing a unique offense, and they played Navy

782
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 3: last year. No, it's a brand it's a brand new office.

783
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 3: You have Delaware wing team mixed with the triple option,

784
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 3: a lot of play action motion. It's been great, but

785
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 3: you've got time to repair, which helps. Max Brown could

786
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 3: be back, the Florida transfer quarterback. That's some uncertainty for

787
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 3: the Navy prep here. This is just the very top

788
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,840
Speaker 3: of the market on Navy. I mean, I'm sorry, I

789
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 3: have to fade them here. Navy and just like Army,

790
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 3: by the way, I'll throw a Army in the ring.

791
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,480
Speaker 3: I'll get your thoughts on both. I'm fading Army as well.

792
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 3: This is the most Unamerican trash segment ever. Give me Ecu.

793
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 3: Both teams have good both defenses Ecu and Charlotte. I mean,

794
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:53,880
Speaker 3: Eacus Rundy's like top five and a lot of metrics.

795
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 3: Charlotte's lineyards and stuff right are okay. And I still

796
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:00,839
Speaker 3: don't trust the Navy or Army defenses, by the way,

797
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:05,799
Speaker 3: and they haven't played anybody. Let's we'll start with Let's

798
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 3: start with Navy. So actually, let's start with Army. Because

799
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 3: they really haven't played anybody Lehigh, FAU, Rice, Temple, UAB

800
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 3: and Tulsa. That is nothing but carcasses. I mean, I

801
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 3: have the average, I have their average ranking upon average

802
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 3: brankbone outside the top one twenty. He doesn't get any easier.

803
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:30,439
Speaker 3: EASU also off of a bye, and I mean, look,

804
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 3: Army's playing extremely well, but they've played nobody. Their defense

805
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:35,800
Speaker 3: is still outside the top ninety and success rate despite

806
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 3: that schedule. And I mean they with the UAB, with

807
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 3: their third string quarterback was moving the ball on them

808
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 3: Army that took and both Army and Navy have some

809
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:51,800
Speaker 3: regression coming. They played nobody and their turnover regression, the

810
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 3: red zone regression, I mean the Army defense teams are

811
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 3: scoring on forty percent of drives inside the red zone.

812
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 3: I mean Texas is second in the nation of fifty

813
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 3: seven percent. Armies also scored touchdowns twenty two of twenty

814
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:07,439
Speaker 3: four trips. Give me ecu here. Hopefully they just don't

815
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 3: turn it over every play. And then the same thing

816
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:13,319
Speaker 3: with Navy. I mean, Navy has been great. Yes, they

817
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 3: beat Memphis, which is a good data point, but they

818
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 3: also give up seven hundred yards in that game. The

819
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 3: defense has issues. They can give up explosives where that's

820
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 3: where Charlotte lives. And you know, if it's Max Brown,

821
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 3: I think that's a good thing. If it's Party the freshman,

822
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 3: he's playing batter. He came in let a comeback victory

823
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 3: of a rice let a route over ECU prior to

824
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 3: the bye week, So yeah, I think that. And Charlotte

825
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 3: has their familiarity here. I like, I'm fading both Army

826
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:45,280
Speaker 3: and Navy agree or disagree.

827
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 1: Take any breath here. You know, I'm on East Carolina

828
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 1: against Army. It was a very first play I put

829
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:51,760
Speaker 1: in the Action app.

830
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:52,839
Speaker 3: This week after the board.

831
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 1: The rush defense is completely legiti fate.

832
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 3: And the Service Academy is over two touchdown favorites. And

833
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 3: he's an auto player for him. All right.

834
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 1: I didn't think I was gonna get involved with this

835
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 1: Charlotte Navy, but I am actually gonna throw money on

836
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:06,400
Speaker 1: it right here at the end of the podcast and

837
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:09,879
Speaker 1: on me agree to that, And I mean, here's the deal.

838
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:14,320
Speaker 1: Charlotte throws a fifty burger up against ECU, and I'm thinking, Okay,

839
00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 1: I get it. ECU's defense sucks, but what in the world,

840
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:19,600
Speaker 1: how did Charlotte score this many points. You go in

841
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:23,120
Speaker 1: there running back of Sean Wilson one hundred and sixty

842
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 1: four yards, the average eleven yards per Carrie had three

843
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:29,400
Speaker 1: tds on the ground. Cartavius Norton too, tds on the

844
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 1: ground average nine yards per carry. This Charlotte rush explosives

845
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 1: is now top ten in the nation and Navy is

846
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 1: one hundred and second giving up rush explosives and they can't.

847
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 1: They have no rushing success rate. Their lineyards are one

848
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty first. And what's the kicker? When I

849
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:47,920
Speaker 1: tell you those defensive stats about Navy, their strength of

850
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:49,240
Speaker 1: schedules one hundred and thirty.

851
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:52,280
Speaker 3: Second, army is even are so like one hundred and fiftieth?

852
00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:55,320
Speaker 1: What is his army Navy total going to be like eighty?

853
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 1: Like Navy can't defend the run. So Charlotte puts a

854
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 1: fifty burger up with running and now they get this

855
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 1: Navy defense on the ground.

856
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 3: I mean, maybe also has Notre Dame on deck. Maybe

857
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 3: they're clough peekinghad I also wuldn't be surprised they spent

858
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:13,160
Speaker 3: part of their bye week preparing for Notre Dame.

859
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 1: Now I've got to put a money line, bet In,

860
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 1: what are you doing to me?

861
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 3: ECU? Just get it together, no weak hearts. Shout out

862
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:22,879
Speaker 3: to their exit coach Steve Logan. You know a win.

863
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:25,280
Speaker 3: Wins are just so hard to come by and they're precious.

864
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:27,239
Speaker 1: But I'm going to tell you something, and you can

865
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 1: write this down in big bold letters. When you're at

866
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:35,239
Speaker 1: East Carolina, you go for it every time, or you

867
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 1: don't coach it East Carolina. You don't come to East Carolina.

868
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:40,399
Speaker 1: You don't play it East Carolina with a weak heart,

869
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 1: and you write that down, all.

870
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 3: Right, trash ECUs, Charlotte, Fall State, Western Michigan. You agree

871
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 3: on three of the four, yep, all right. By the way,

872
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 3: make sure you check out the group of five guys.

873
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:57,960
Speaker 3: Their episode is out now. And by the way, group

874
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:00,360
Speaker 3: of five guys, they do love Charlotte as well. So

875
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 3: we're all on team Biff here at BBOC before we

876
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 3: get to three. Now, Colin talking to Arkansas football, might

877
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 3: as well put it on here. I know you're on it.

878
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:10,239
Speaker 1: I'm on it.

879
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 3: I like Arkansas. I mean this LSU team. By the way,

880
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:16,400
Speaker 3: ECU two seventeen ozh goo and leads away from being

881
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 3: five and one. This line wouldn't be this high Arkansas.

882
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 3: I mean, this team's playing really well. And Sam Pittman

883
00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 3: is a dog. I mean that's I say it all

884
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 3: the time. Guy is a twenty two and eight against

885
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:29,399
Speaker 3: the spread as a nunderdog, covered by about five points

886
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:32,080
Speaker 3: per game, fifteen to four against top twenty opponents. When

887
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 3: he's catching points five and one against his sprep with

888
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 3: extra time to a bear extra time, they're a bear

889
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:43,760
Speaker 3: key Here. LSU off that thrilling emotional win in overtime,

890
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:46,759
Speaker 3: Now hitting the road to take on Arkansas. Arkansas ARGUB

891
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 3: has two of the or the best coordinator duo in

892
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:52,919
Speaker 3: college football. I expect them to both have great game

893
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 3: plans here, one dimensional LSU offense easier to prepare for.

894
00:43:57,560 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 3: Yes Nesmyer's going to give his yards. He might have

895
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:01,480
Speaker 3: a healthier wider your room tailor Green I think is

896
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 3: going to be healthy. You have more on that. I

897
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 3: like Arkansas at home to pull this off. Look, LSU

898
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 3: should have lost to South Carolina if they don't get

899
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 3: every single call under the sun, and as someone who

900
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:13,000
Speaker 3: was on them last week, they should have lost to

901
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:18,359
Speaker 3: Ole Miss LSU. You look at their penalties in their

902
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:22,240
Speaker 3: two league wins that they won by combined six points.

903
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:24,280
Speaker 3: And by the way, the last four or five meetings

904
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:26,239
Speaker 3: between Arkansas as you've all been decided by three points,

905
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 3: and their two comeback league wins and they should have

906
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:31,360
Speaker 3: lost both their opponents were penalized twenty five times for

907
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:33,759
Speaker 3: two hundred and thirty three yards. I mean, that's how

908
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:37,040
Speaker 3: they've won these games. LSU defense still extremely vulnerable. Woo

909
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:42,879
Speaker 3: pig sue you agree, Woo pig suey absolute dumpster fined,

910
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 3: dumpster fine.

911
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:44,919
Speaker 1: I don't know how we win a game the rest

912
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 1: of the year. Just blow the program up, give us

913
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 1: a death sentence. Collins talking razorback football, one hundred percent agree. Listen,

914
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 1: first off, Tailor Green is one hundred percent healthy. Don't

915
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:57,920
Speaker 1: listen to what any of the coaches are saying. He

916
00:44:58,040 --> 00:44:59,799
Speaker 1: does not have a well, he has a bone bruise

917
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 1: but doesn't really hurt. He's throwing deep in practice. He

918
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:05,080
Speaker 1: is one hundred percent committed. He's there before everybody, he's

919
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 1: there after everybody leaves. Taylor Green is going to be fine,

920
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 1: and that is really bad news for an LSU defense

921
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:14,000
Speaker 1: that does not want to see any more zone read concepts.

922
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 1: They struggled with South Carolina and the RPO from the

923
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 1: Noori Sellers and Rockett Sanders. Those guys combined for two

924
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty yards on the ground and four touchdowns.

925
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 1: So any kind of RPO that's gonna be run by

926
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:29,480
Speaker 1: Taylor and Jaquindin Jackson is going to be horrific for

927
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 1: LSU to try and defend the Cayden Durham thing. We

928
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:34,319
Speaker 1: were pretty hot on ls We thought maybe LSU had

929
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 1: a bit of a rushing attack with Cayden Durham the

930
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:38,799
Speaker 1: freshman there, but he didn't really show out against Ole Miss.

931
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:42,799
Speaker 1: I think Arkansas's defense, specifically defensive coordinator Travis Williams, may

932
00:45:42,840 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 1: be the best in the game up rising. I don't

933
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 1: know how we're going to keep him in the offseason.

934
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:47,839
Speaker 1: He's going to come up with a game plan here,

935
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,360
Speaker 1: because explain to me how Arkansas is one hundred and

936
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 1: seventh and coverage grading but they completely stifled Tennessee. That's

937
00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 1: because of Travis Williams and his game planning. I think

938
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:58,520
Speaker 1: there'll be something here for Garrett Nusmeyer can't really pick

939
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 1: it out of the numbers here. He's been excellent against

940
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 1: cover two, cover zero. He's been excellent against almost everything.

941
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:08,880
Speaker 1: And does Williams elect to go heavy blitz here is

942
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 1: one of the best pass blocking offensive lines in the country.

943
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 1: Does he side to lay back? It's going to be

944
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:16,160
Speaker 1: interesting to see this, but there is some familiarity here.

945
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 3: Arkansas lay back simulates and pressures, pick and choose when

946
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 3: you bring blitz. But yeah, I mean you can take

947
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:25,880
Speaker 3: away the run, nuss myrond him with some mistakes, trying

948
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:28,359
Speaker 3: to move the ball down the field consistently through the air.

949
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 3: I think that's the best approach. But we'll see he's

950
00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:31,319
Speaker 3: smarter than me. Yeah.

951
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 1: And the last thing is Landon Jackson, the star edge

952
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:37,280
Speaker 1: for Arkansas on the defensive line. He played for LSU

953
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 1: and he was roommates with left guard Garrett Dellinger. He

954
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:42,239
Speaker 1: knows this offensive line very well. I think that's an

955
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:46,000
Speaker 1: advantage for Arkansas getting prepared here. Arkansas is the most

956
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:49,360
Speaker 1: more explosive offense. They're the more limiting defense when it

957
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:52,919
Speaker 1: comes to explosives, and they are night and day better

958
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 1: at creating quality drives and getting into scoring position. Give

959
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 1: me the Razorbacks, no kicking issues, no stupid ass fake

960
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:03,720
Speaker 1: punts and fake field goals. Just drive it in the hole, Pittman.

961
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 1: Let Petrino do his job.

962
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 3: Woopig SUI, woopig sue woopig suey. Indeed, all right, for

963
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 3: we got out of here, let's go three and out.

964
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 1: Oh, let's make it a quick three and out.

965
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:22,840
Speaker 3: Let's dive right in to some Friday night lights.

966
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 1: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

967
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 3: Let's go play some football. Let's start in the ACC

968
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:38,480
Speaker 3: Florida State will travel to Duke, catching right around a

969
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 3: field goal here I play. I haven't taken the plunge

970
00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:46,240
Speaker 3: yet with Florida State. I know you tried to earlier

971
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 3: this season. I won't mention I guess I'm mentioning it now.

972
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:55,280
Speaker 3: Your college football playoff graphic with Florida State in your field.

973
00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:59,120
Speaker 3: So sorry for dropping that in. I haven't taken the plunge,

974
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 3: jell Farna State. This is the time to do that.

975
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 3: I look, Duke has not beaten anybody. I mean, their

976
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 3: schedule has been laughable. They finally stepped up, lost by

977
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 3: double digits at Georgia Tech in their previous game before that.

978
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:15,200
Speaker 3: I mean, this is a team that had come back

979
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 3: from down twenty nothing against North Carolina. They should have

980
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:25,799
Speaker 3: lost to Northwestern. Sorry, I mean you're that's another add

981
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:28,880
Speaker 3: that to the list of your cursed weekday bets with

982
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 3: Northwestern and Duke and Florida State. Look, they're coming off

983
00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 3: foot by. I still respect Norvell from a game planning perspective,

984
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 3: and they're going if you look at their their depth

985
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 3: their projected depth chart this week on offense, they're gone

986
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:47,760
Speaker 3: with like a little bit more of a youth movement.

987
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 3: So I think they could come out of the bye

988
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 3: week with a little more juice here. Dju obviously no

989
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 3: longer under center. I think that's ultimately a positive. They

990
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:04,880
Speaker 3: still have a really talented defense. I don't trust Malik

991
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:10,239
Speaker 3: Murphy to consistently beat this Seminoles defense. So you just

992
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:12,920
Speaker 3: change a couple results for Duke, Like they lose that

993
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:16,600
Speaker 3: Northwestern game as they should have. They you know, North

994
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 3: Carolina doesn't melt down. I don't think that Florida State

995
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:24,360
Speaker 3: is catching a field goal plus here, I like the Knowles,

996
00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 3: are you going to join me?

997
00:49:26,400 --> 00:49:28,319
Speaker 1: I was gonna have you try to convince me here.

998
00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, Duke is five and one with a

999
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 1: Strength of Schedule rank of one hundred. That's not like

1000
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:36,120
Speaker 1: Manny Diaz has really been tested yet here, and a

1001
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 1: lot of coin flips has gone his way Florida State.

1002
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 1: I mean I projected this game at three, so I

1003
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 1: understand the move off of four down to three. Florida

1004
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 1: State's coming off of a bye week can really shoot

1005
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:48,359
Speaker 1: holes through Duke on the fact that haven't really been

1006
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 1: challenged yet. I like the youth movement that Norville. Maybe

1007
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 1: Norbel has seen the signs and it's time to go

1008
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:54,919
Speaker 1: ahead and start, you know, get started on twenty twenty five.

1009
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:58,400
Speaker 1: Florida State's biggest advantage here is explosives in the air

1010
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 1: during passing passing downs. Duke is eighteenth in coverage and

1011
00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:04,680
Speaker 1: they having success and cover one and cover three. Those

1012
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:07,120
Speaker 1: are things that have given Florida State issues. So I

1013
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:08,960
Speaker 1: like the under in this game. Stock. I was gonna

1014
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:10,920
Speaker 1: hope you could convince me to Florida State. I think

1015
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:12,640
Speaker 1: I'm gonna stick with the under man.

1016
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:14,919
Speaker 3: I mean, you're just throwing under the bus here saying

1017
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:17,840
Speaker 3: I didn't make it me. I apologize for that. So

1018
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:20,680
Speaker 3: you're rolling with the under I'm rolling with the knowles.

1019
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:25,840
Speaker 3: I'm ready for the pain. Let's move on to Oregon

1020
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:31,960
Speaker 3: in a very tricky spot, just situationally going to Purdue.

1021
00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 3: I had this one circle. It's like, all right, if

1022
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:36,799
Speaker 3: they beat Ohio State before the whole, before the season started,

1023
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 3: if they beat Ohio State, the spoiler makers at home.

1024
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:43,200
Speaker 3: This is tricky trous spots. Short week off of that

1025
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:47,200
Speaker 3: emotional game, they're laying four touchdowns here. I just couldn't

1026
00:50:47,200 --> 00:50:50,840
Speaker 3: get here numbers wise. I mean, the spot tells me Purdue,

1027
00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:53,839
Speaker 3: we saw some life, thought there might be some quit

1028
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 3: watch they showed life. Are you We should have beat

1029
00:50:56,719 --> 00:51:01,400
Speaker 3: Illinois last week? But how are they getting I don't know.

1030
00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 3: Above four touchdowns lean to Purdue below no, thank you

1031
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:11,759
Speaker 3: just might be a stay away from me. You told

1032
00:51:11,800 --> 00:51:15,799
Speaker 3: me before the season Oregon beats Ohio State, I would

1033
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:18,960
Speaker 3: have told you ninety percent, chatsman Purdue. I don't think

1034
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:21,279
Speaker 3: I can get there. Maybe you can convince me if

1035
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:23,319
Speaker 3: you do, like Purdue. What do you see here?

1036
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:26,000
Speaker 1: There is a side that I want and I'm I'm like,

1037
00:51:26,080 --> 00:51:27,279
Speaker 1: am I going to do it? Do I have the

1038
00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:29,279
Speaker 1: balls to put this? To put money down on this?

1039
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 1: And so it's going to be Purdue in the first half.

1040
00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:34,400
Speaker 1: Spot related of course, because if you go back and

1041
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:36,719
Speaker 1: you look these PAC twelve members that have had to

1042
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:41,399
Speaker 1: travel east. It's been a severe struggle. Buss. USC has

1043
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:45,120
Speaker 1: just looked awful against Michigan and Minnesota losses. Ucla lost

1044
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:48,160
Speaker 1: twenty seven to eleven at Penn State, Washington was blown

1045
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 1: out at Iowa after reading Michigan at home, and the

1046
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:54,560
Speaker 1: Huskies loss at Rutgers in week five. Like this whole

1047
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:56,719
Speaker 1: travel between two time zones is a real thing. So

1048
00:51:57,520 --> 00:51:59,000
Speaker 1: is Oregon going to be a part of that? And

1049
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:01,239
Speaker 1: if they are after this huge winninga inst Ohio state,

1050
00:52:01,600 --> 00:52:03,360
Speaker 1: wouldn't you kind of want to take perdue in the

1051
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:05,760
Speaker 1: first half a number. I mean, we're all talking about

1052
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:08,600
Speaker 1: this steaming up the board. I see twenty nine halves

1053
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:10,439
Speaker 1: as you and I are talking, there's way out of range.

1054
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 1: I have purdued about one plus twenty six in this

1055
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:15,200
Speaker 1: So this number is way out of territory. The first

1056
00:52:15,239 --> 00:52:17,360
Speaker 1: half number last I looked was seventeen. It might be

1057
00:52:17,440 --> 00:52:19,279
Speaker 1: up higher than that right now with this steam going on.

1058
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:22,239
Speaker 1: So the question is can you back a Purdue team

1059
00:52:22,880 --> 00:52:26,239
Speaker 1: that went ten quarters without scoring a touchdown before they

1060
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:28,799
Speaker 1: got into the second half against Illinois last week went

1061
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:32,719
Speaker 1: berserk and shoved the game into overtime. Ryan Brown was

1062
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:34,680
Speaker 1: the quarterback that was responsible.

1063
00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:35,799
Speaker 3: For that last week, and the stell start again.

1064
00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:39,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, he'll start at three touchdowns. He just had one

1065
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:42,000
Speaker 1: turnover worthy play. He had eleven point two average depth

1066
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:44,200
Speaker 1: of targets, so he was just out there chucking bombs.

1067
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 1: But I don't think he's going to be as fortunate

1068
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:48,000
Speaker 1: here because when you go inside of his numbers, and

1069
00:52:48,080 --> 00:52:49,920
Speaker 1: this is what's kind of got me tailing off of Purdue,

1070
00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 1: he had thirteen pressures in twenty six passing attempts that

1071
00:52:53,239 --> 00:52:55,279
Speaker 1: resulted in just one sack. I mean, he was just

1072
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:57,520
Speaker 1: sort of a magician dancing around all the pressures that

1073
00:52:57,560 --> 00:52:59,920
Speaker 1: he got and all of his passing attempts last week

1074
00:53:00,440 --> 00:53:04,240
Speaker 1: three point seven seconds for release time, like the average

1075
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:07,000
Speaker 1: is two point five. He held onto the ball forever

1076
00:53:07,160 --> 00:53:09,600
Speaker 1: and somehow Illinois didn't get any hands on him and

1077
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:12,360
Speaker 1: only sacked him once. I don't know how he throws

1078
00:53:12,560 --> 00:53:15,680
Speaker 1: three point seven seconds before release time. He gets away

1079
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:17,239
Speaker 1: with it against org I don't think its possibly against

1080
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:19,960
Speaker 1: that defensive line, but for doing the first half is

1081
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:22,400
Speaker 1: the spot play. I think I'm just gonna let this

1082
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:24,560
Speaker 1: thing steam out till about Friday, one hour before kick

1083
00:53:24,600 --> 00:53:25,879
Speaker 1: and maybe look at a first half line.

1084
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to a game with college

1085
00:53:29,239 --> 00:53:34,120
Speaker 3: football playoff implications and for the team that many would

1086
00:53:34,120 --> 00:53:36,239
Speaker 3: have guessed that does not apply for it before the

1087
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 3: season started talking about Oklahoma State at undefeated BYU. BYU

1088
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:45,320
Speaker 3: one of two teams I believe that's undefeated against the

1089
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:51,600
Speaker 3: spread this season, along with Army. I played Oklahoma State.

1090
00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:55,560
Speaker 3: I had just a pure numbers play look. BYU has

1091
00:53:55,640 --> 00:53:58,759
Speaker 3: been one of the luckiest teams in the country. They've

1092
00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 3: been way better than expected. But in every week, that

1093
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:03,960
Speaker 3: get out gain, that will get picked sixes, punker turned touchdowns,

1094
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:10,120
Speaker 3: and that lot completely misleading final scores seemingly every single week.

1095
00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 3: This team still has issues on offense. And Oklahoma State

1096
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:16,640
Speaker 3: are they on quit watch?

1097
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:17,279
Speaker 1: I don't know.

1098
00:54:17,400 --> 00:54:18,719
Speaker 3: We talked about this earlier in the week on the

1099
00:54:18,760 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 3: New BCS. McMurphy thinks they're going to respond off the

1100
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:25,360
Speaker 3: bye week to Gundy. We've seen Gundhy's teams look lifeless

1101
00:54:25,400 --> 00:54:30,040
Speaker 3: and then respond in the second half seasons before quarterback change.

1102
00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:33,400
Speaker 3: Here's there's a lot of uncertainty in this. Looks like

1103
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:36,520
Speaker 3: Garrett Wrangle will get the start over Alan Bowman, and

1104
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:39,640
Speaker 3: then you also could see which I'm actually, you know,

1105
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:43,440
Speaker 3: someone who bet Oklahoma State. I'm actually excited, more excited

1106
00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:48,319
Speaker 3: to see potentially the freshman Flores come in, who has

1107
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 3: been getting some run with the ones reportedly, so you

1108
00:54:52,200 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 3: could see him at some point. Makes it a little

1109
00:54:55,040 --> 00:55:00,080
Speaker 3: more difficult for BYU from a preparation standpoint. So well,

1110
00:55:00,400 --> 00:55:03,839
Speaker 3: i mean, look, the Bye rushing attack has not been great.

1111
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:06,720
Speaker 3: That's where you could really get this Oklahoma State defense

1112
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:09,000
Speaker 3: that just is not good in that area and has

1113
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:12,520
Speaker 3: also suffered injuries. So sometimes you just have to take

1114
00:55:12,520 --> 00:55:14,840
Speaker 3: a number. I'm rolling with Oklahoma State here off the

1115
00:55:14,880 --> 00:55:17,600
Speaker 3: buy to respond, do you great?

1116
00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:21,160
Speaker 1: Yeah? I do agree. I've played this myself today. Numbers

1117
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:23,120
Speaker 1: played just like you have make a BYU minus five

1118
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 1: and a half. So at nine and a half, anything

1119
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 1: above seven, you're gonna have to take interest in Oklahoma

1120
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:28,800
Speaker 1: State here, and you really have to take interest for

1121
00:55:28,840 --> 00:55:31,280
Speaker 1: two other data points. Gundy is eleven and four against

1122
00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:33,480
Speaker 1: the spread off of a bye since twenty to seventeen.

1123
00:55:34,160 --> 00:55:35,840
Speaker 1: I'm not so much of a trends player, but I

1124
00:55:35,920 --> 00:55:38,480
Speaker 1: am a Oh thank god Alan Bowman is not the

1125
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:41,800
Speaker 1: starting quarterback anymore. I think with Zane Flores, you have

1126
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:44,239
Speaker 1: to go deep into his recruiting profile, he was a

1127
00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:48,480
Speaker 1: three star. His recruiting profile says he has a polished arm,

1128
00:55:48,520 --> 00:55:51,800
Speaker 1: he works great and quick decisions and slants and out routes.

1129
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:55,040
Speaker 1: He doesn't have any elite indicators as far as arm

1130
00:55:55,120 --> 00:55:57,239
Speaker 1: strength and his size, but he has mobility to have

1131
00:55:57,400 --> 00:55:59,920
Speaker 1: some sort of scramble game. I think the important key

1132
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:02,880
Speaker 1: thing there is that he's able to hit slants and

1133
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:07,120
Speaker 1: out routes quickly make quick decisions because Alan Bowman can't.

1134
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:09,200
Speaker 1: Allen Bowman's always been a hot read and he can't

1135
00:56:09,200 --> 00:56:11,600
Speaker 1: get to a second and third progressions. This could be

1136
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 1: an upgrade for the Oklahoma State offense. I think that's

1137
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:16,279
Speaker 1: what you're playing for. Plus, Oklahoma State likes to go

1138
00:56:16,440 --> 00:56:18,880
Speaker 1: really fast twenty two seconds per play. They need a

1139
00:56:18,960 --> 00:56:22,120
Speaker 1: quarterback that can help get them quick first downs and

1140
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:24,040
Speaker 1: get down the field, and they just haven't had that yet.

1141
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:26,400
Speaker 1: On the other side, Jake Rhetz laugh, I mean, I mean,

1142
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:28,280
Speaker 1: what do we talking about here? Seven to seven turnover

1143
00:56:28,360 --> 00:56:32,280
Speaker 1: Worthy played a big time throw ratio. He just crumbles

1144
00:56:32,320 --> 00:56:34,160
Speaker 1: in a pressure pocket if you can get any kind

1145
00:56:34,480 --> 00:56:37,360
Speaker 1: of press in that pocket. Rets laugh has been pretty terrible.

1146
00:56:37,600 --> 00:56:39,600
Speaker 1: The problem with Oklahoma State is they generated only two

1147
00:56:39,640 --> 00:56:42,520
Speaker 1: sacks against West Virginia. They're just struggling to get pressure.

1148
00:56:42,719 --> 00:56:45,280
Speaker 1: But you're right, it's been a bye week. Gundy always

1149
00:56:45,280 --> 00:56:47,080
Speaker 1: gets his team to turn around. You see that in

1150
00:56:47,160 --> 00:56:49,760
Speaker 1: the against the spread. And I am way more comfortable

1151
00:56:49,760 --> 00:56:51,640
Speaker 1: with Zamee Flores. Now, you and I've known, We've talked

1152
00:56:51,640 --> 00:56:54,120
Speaker 1: about this with Brett. Zame Flores has been getting snaps

1153
00:56:54,200 --> 00:56:57,279
Speaker 1: for quite a while. I would not be shocked if

1154
00:56:57,320 --> 00:57:00,800
Speaker 1: he has been preparing for the BYU game itself for

1155
00:57:00,960 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 1: a month. I'd be surprised. Toy Wrangle come out, do

1156
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:06,320
Speaker 1: one possession, get the BYU defense a little off, and

1157
00:57:06,320 --> 00:57:08,000
Speaker 1: then Zane Flores comes out and does this thing.

1158
00:57:08,080 --> 00:57:10,879
Speaker 3: So I'm with you on Oklahoma State, adding Oak State

1159
00:57:11,239 --> 00:57:15,959
Speaker 3: to the agree portion of our transparency white board. Final

1160
00:57:16,000 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 3: game Friday night, Super late night, fifteen minutes after BYU

1161
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:25,080
Speaker 3: Oklahoma State Fresno State, Nevada. I got nothing here. I

1162
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:29,400
Speaker 3: think Nevada I was a team significantly improved primarily due

1163
00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:34,720
Speaker 3: to just a massive coaching upgrade. Fresno State three point

1164
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:37,440
Speaker 3: road favorite. Here, you got anything?

1165
00:57:38,440 --> 00:57:41,760
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I'm on Nevada here all the way. I

1166
00:57:41,840 --> 00:57:43,800
Speaker 1: think three is probably the last number you're going to buy.

1167
00:57:43,920 --> 00:57:46,080
Speaker 1: It's not really a big power ratings play. I make

1168
00:57:46,160 --> 00:57:49,400
Speaker 1: this game about Fresno by two, so it's not really

1169
00:57:49,440 --> 00:57:51,439
Speaker 1: so much that it's the fact that the best part

1170
00:57:51,520 --> 00:57:53,560
Speaker 1: of the Fresno State offense is the passing game of

1171
00:57:53,600 --> 00:57:56,520
Speaker 1: Mikey Keane. The splits really haven't been great, from a

1172
00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:59,560
Speaker 1: touchdown interception to a big time throw to turnover worthy play.

1173
00:58:00,000 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 1: But the best part of the Nevada defense is the

1174
00:58:02,480 --> 00:58:05,040
Speaker 1: secondary and the coverage unit. It started in game one

1175
00:58:05,080 --> 00:58:08,520
Speaker 1: against SMU. Right now, they're thirty sixth in grading per PFF.

1176
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:12,480
Speaker 1: But Keene, he's been sort of middle fbs and success

1177
00:58:12,600 --> 00:58:15,560
Speaker 1: rate against quarters and cover one. Nevada runs both of

1178
00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:17,840
Speaker 1: those schemes on the back end. That should confuse Keen

1179
00:58:17,880 --> 00:58:19,880
Speaker 1: a little bit. Same strength to schedule for both of

1180
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:22,120
Speaker 1: these teams here coming out of the Mountain West, but

1181
00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:24,480
Speaker 1: there's a big rush advantage on the ground for the

1182
00:58:24,600 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 1: Nevada offense. Both quarterback Brendon Lewis running backsavvy On Red.

1183
00:58:28,920 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 1: They are decent three point four yards after first contact,

1184
00:58:32,760 --> 00:58:36,720
Speaker 1: but each have created each have created twenty seven missed tackles.

1185
00:58:36,760 --> 00:58:38,760
Speaker 1: You have to be on your tackle game against this

1186
00:58:38,880 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 1: Nevada ground attack, but overall that's secondary for the wolf

1187
00:58:42,240 --> 00:58:45,000
Speaker 1: Pack has been crazy good all year and surprising out

1188
00:58:45,000 --> 00:58:46,400
Speaker 1: of the Mountain West. We're going to back it here

1189
00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:46,720
Speaker 1: at home.

1190
00:58:47,000 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 2: All right, It's time to move on to second down

1191
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:57,400
Speaker 2: and talk our favorite overdogs, aka our favorite favorites.

1192
00:58:57,520 --> 00:58:59,240
Speaker 1: It's called the overdog parlays.

1193
00:58:59,280 --> 00:59:02,880
Speaker 3: I'll kick things off off. I'm going with my Kentucky

1194
00:59:02,920 --> 00:59:08,560
Speaker 3: Wildcats on the road at Florida. I think look stoops.

1195
00:59:08,760 --> 00:59:10,880
Speaker 3: Last week we saw them very disappointing effort. I talked

1196
00:59:10,920 --> 00:59:13,120
Speaker 3: about that lastic They've always been so poor out of

1197
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 3: the buy. I don't know what it is, but his

1198
00:59:15,200 --> 00:59:18,920
Speaker 3: team's consistently come out with poor efforts after time off.

1199
00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:24,560
Speaker 3: They usually do respond though, from poor efforts and after loss.

1200
00:59:24,600 --> 00:59:27,360
Speaker 3: Has already seen that this year, right, get embarrassed by

1201
00:59:27,400 --> 00:59:32,800
Speaker 3: South Carolina, almost come back and beat Georgia the following week,

1202
00:59:32,840 --> 00:59:37,160
Speaker 3: and then you know they upset Oh Miss. So I

1203
00:59:37,320 --> 00:59:40,560
Speaker 3: expect them to respond here. More importantly, I like the

1204
00:59:40,640 --> 00:59:45,240
Speaker 3: matchup Kentucky. Their offense is efficient when they're running the ball,

1205
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:49,560
Speaker 3: struggle throwing it well, you can run. On Florida, it

1206
00:59:49,720 --> 00:59:54,760
Speaker 3: was really struggled to defend opposing ground attacks and when

1207
00:59:54,800 --> 00:59:57,520
Speaker 3: Florida has the ball, all right, they can't They're not

1208
00:59:57,520 --> 00:59:59,440
Speaker 3: going to run it. You can't run it on Kentucky,

1209
00:59:59,680 --> 01:00:01,960
Speaker 3: one of the best front sevens in all of college football.

1210
01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:07,040
Speaker 3: You have to efficiently pass it against this secondary. I

1211
01:00:07,120 --> 01:00:11,880
Speaker 3: don't trust DJ Lagway to do that. He's probably gonna

1212
01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:16,040
Speaker 3: make a few key mistakes. Like their Kentucky's gonna drop

1213
01:00:16,080 --> 01:00:17,360
Speaker 3: a lot in the coverage. They'll still be able to

1214
01:00:17,400 --> 01:00:20,960
Speaker 3: get pressure as well, and eventually I think Lagway is

1215
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:23,400
Speaker 3: going to make a couple of mistakes if you take

1216
01:00:23,760 --> 01:00:27,480
Speaker 3: if you just remove his numbers against Samford, yeah, I

1217
01:00:27,600 --> 01:00:30,000
Speaker 3: mean they are not pretty. I don't think he's quite

1218
01:00:30,160 --> 01:00:34,760
Speaker 3: ready yet for SEC level football. I think he has

1219
01:00:34,800 --> 01:00:38,680
Speaker 3: two touchdowns and four interceptions outside of the Stamford game,

1220
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:41,040
Speaker 3: and this will be the best defense he has faced

1221
01:00:41,240 --> 01:00:44,520
Speaker 3: to date in his first SEC start. Give me Kentucky

1222
01:00:45,600 --> 01:00:49,000
Speaker 3: and give me the better staff with Stoops in company

1223
01:00:49,360 --> 01:00:52,040
Speaker 3: against your boy, Billy Naper. I think Stoops two and

1224
01:00:52,160 --> 01:00:54,440
Speaker 3: l against the spread the past years, covering about seventeen

1225
01:00:54,520 --> 01:00:59,280
Speaker 3: points per game against Florida. I think it continues. Not

1226
01:00:59,400 --> 01:01:04,240
Speaker 3: sure we're at Florida's at mentally another loss, heartbreaking Fashion

1227
01:01:04,280 --> 01:01:07,080
Speaker 3: should have beat Tennessee. I like the Cats on the

1228
01:01:07,200 --> 01:01:08,280
Speaker 3: road Florida.

1229
01:01:08,880 --> 01:01:11,360
Speaker 1: They better be in desperation mode for this game because

1230
01:01:11,440 --> 01:01:13,520
Speaker 1: the schedule after this is the most brutal thing in

1231
01:01:13,560 --> 01:01:15,680
Speaker 1: all of college football. So I agree with you. If

1232
01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:17,360
Speaker 1: you even want to put it on the board, Kentucky

1233
01:01:17,440 --> 01:01:18,920
Speaker 1: money line them all the way there. They will be

1234
01:01:19,000 --> 01:01:21,640
Speaker 1: in my round, Robins. I'm gonna move on my overdog

1235
01:01:21,720 --> 01:01:24,840
Speaker 1: this week is going to be Washington State taking on

1236
01:01:25,120 --> 01:01:28,800
Speaker 1: my beloved Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. Listen to. Wazoo has just

1237
01:01:28,880 --> 01:01:31,600
Speaker 1: been a completely different animal at home on offense. Seventy

1238
01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:34,240
Speaker 1: points against Portland State, thirty seven against Texas Tech, and

1239
01:01:34,320 --> 01:01:36,760
Speaker 1: fifty four against San Jose. I know you hear those

1240
01:01:36,800 --> 01:01:39,680
Speaker 1: teams and you think, well, it don't have very good defenses.

1241
01:01:39,840 --> 01:01:42,680
Speaker 1: But Wazoo is scoring at will at home no matter

1242
01:01:42,760 --> 01:01:45,440
Speaker 1: who the opponent is. The Cougars right now are second

1243
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:48,680
Speaker 1: and rush EPA there twentieth in pass EPA. This is

1244
01:01:48,840 --> 01:01:51,520
Speaker 1: not a methodical offense. This is not an offense. It's

1245
01:01:51,560 --> 01:01:54,160
Speaker 1: based on getting first downs. They just love to have

1246
01:01:54,320 --> 01:01:57,560
Speaker 1: quarterback John Mattier just completely blow up the field and

1247
01:01:57,680 --> 01:02:00,200
Speaker 1: try to get scores from that. He leads the team

1248
01:02:00,200 --> 01:02:02,840
Speaker 1: in rushing yards. He is everything to this team. Six

1249
01:02:02,960 --> 01:02:06,080
Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns already this year for their quarterback. You can

1250
01:02:06,160 --> 01:02:08,680
Speaker 1: think of Hawaii trying to defend John Matier there for

1251
01:02:08,840 --> 01:02:11,360
Speaker 1: Washington State, similar to what they saw with Hunter Watson

1252
01:02:11,400 --> 01:02:14,439
Speaker 1: from Sam Houston earlier this season. That's really the only

1253
01:02:14,600 --> 01:02:17,120
Speaker 1: true RPO threat that they've had a quarterback that they've

1254
01:02:17,160 --> 01:02:20,160
Speaker 1: had to go up against. Watson was twelve rushes forty

1255
01:02:20,200 --> 01:02:22,600
Speaker 1: one yards. He had a decent day against Hawaii defense.

1256
01:02:23,040 --> 01:02:26,200
Speaker 1: Hii's defense. They're just mid fbs against outside zone, something

1257
01:02:26,320 --> 01:02:29,000
Speaker 1: Washington State runs a lot. They struggle more with inside

1258
01:02:29,080 --> 01:02:31,480
Speaker 1: zone and a heavier box. Wazu's going to mix in

1259
01:02:31,560 --> 01:02:33,480
Speaker 1: a lot of that too. That's all in their run concepts.

1260
01:02:33,800 --> 01:02:36,960
Speaker 1: No Hawaii run and shoot is broken. I know that

1261
01:02:37,080 --> 01:02:40,320
Speaker 1: they were missing some key targets and receivers coming into

1262
01:02:40,360 --> 01:02:43,200
Speaker 1: this season, but I'd never imagine they would be one

1263
01:02:43,280 --> 01:02:45,360
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty first in creating explosives through the air.

1264
01:02:45,480 --> 01:02:47,560
Speaker 1: That is not a Timmy Chang run and shoot offense

1265
01:02:47,600 --> 01:02:50,200
Speaker 1: that Hawaii is running right now. There's no single target

1266
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:51,960
Speaker 1: on this team that is getting more.

1267
01:02:52,040 --> 01:02:55,360
Speaker 3: No Sagar bombs, no Shagar bombs and no.

1268
01:02:55,440 --> 01:02:58,720
Speaker 1: Wide receiver is over two yards per route run. I'm

1269
01:02:58,800 --> 01:03:00,680
Speaker 1: shocked you could have told me that preseason. I would

1270
01:03:00,680 --> 01:03:02,720
Speaker 1: have never believed you. The other thing, I don't believe,

1271
01:03:03,000 --> 01:03:05,920
Speaker 1: but Phil Ashlock, who's their best wide receiver by far,

1272
01:03:07,200 --> 01:03:10,240
Speaker 1: has more drops than anybody else in the nation. I

1273
01:03:10,280 --> 01:03:12,400
Speaker 1: don't know what's going on there with his hands. He's

1274
01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:16,880
Speaker 1: only caught two of seven contested catches seven contested throws

1275
01:03:16,920 --> 01:03:19,800
Speaker 1: from Schagar this year. Ashlock is just not coming down

1276
01:03:19,840 --> 01:03:21,720
Speaker 1: with the ball and he can't hold onto it, leading

1277
01:03:21,760 --> 01:03:26,360
Speaker 1: the nation and drops. Segar has accuracy concerns. Why he's

1278
01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:30,040
Speaker 1: already had thirty two contested thrown throws so far this year.

1279
01:03:30,720 --> 01:03:32,640
Speaker 1: Something's wrong with the passing game. It's not working and

1280
01:03:32,960 --> 01:03:35,600
Speaker 1: was it is twenty fifth in pass coverage per PFF.

1281
01:03:35,720 --> 01:03:38,560
Speaker 1: So Koog's here to absolutely roll with this high spread.

1282
01:03:39,200 --> 01:03:43,080
Speaker 3: Why I think you're going with Washington State? Though caller

1283
01:03:43,160 --> 01:03:46,720
Speaker 3: on the voice now last week said stop fading my coogs. Yep,

1284
01:03:47,000 --> 01:03:49,560
Speaker 3: well he listened. You're rolling with the Koogs, all right,

1285
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:55,320
Speaker 3: So favor favorites Kentucky and Washington State. Let's move on

1286
01:03:55,440 --> 01:04:00,640
Speaker 3: to third down, our favorite moneyline underdogs for our underdog

1287
01:04:00,720 --> 01:04:05,720
Speaker 3: moneyline parlay. I have hit two in a row, turning

1288
01:04:05,880 --> 01:04:10,720
Speaker 3: good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the money

1289
01:04:10,800 --> 01:04:16,640
Speaker 3: line parlay going for a show record three straight. You

1290
01:04:16,720 --> 01:04:19,280
Speaker 3: were just talking about John Mattier. I'm gonna talk a little.

1291
01:04:19,880 --> 01:04:29,040
Speaker 3: How about a little John Denver. I'm going with West Virginia.

1292
01:04:29,720 --> 01:04:32,080
Speaker 3: It burned me last week, but I think this is

1293
01:04:32,600 --> 01:04:36,960
Speaker 3: actually a better matchup. Was concerned about Iowa States passing

1294
01:04:37,040 --> 01:04:39,880
Speaker 3: attack and explosives against this West Virginia secretary. That's their

1295
01:04:39,920 --> 01:04:47,600
Speaker 3: clear weakness. Do I really trust Kansas State's passing attack now? No,

1296
01:04:48,000 --> 01:04:52,720
Speaker 3: not really. So I'll make Avery Johnson and company prove

1297
01:04:52,800 --> 01:04:54,840
Speaker 3: to me because the West Virginia run defense is solid.

1298
01:04:54,880 --> 01:04:56,960
Speaker 3: I mean I would I would state average like under

1299
01:04:57,000 --> 01:04:59,920
Speaker 3: three yards per carry last week. I'll make Avery Johnson

1300
01:05:00,240 --> 01:05:02,120
Speaker 3: we can go on the road here, get it done

1301
01:05:02,640 --> 01:05:05,880
Speaker 3: in a hostile environment through the air. Give me the

1302
01:05:05,920 --> 01:05:12,520
Speaker 3: mountaineers here country, take me home.

1303
01:05:14,400 --> 01:05:15,680
Speaker 2: To the place.

1304
01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:27,200
Speaker 1: We agree. If you want to put that on the board,

1305
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:29,600
Speaker 1: I'm going to stay in the pac two. After taking

1306
01:05:29,720 --> 01:05:32,440
Speaker 1: Washington State, I'm gonna go with Oregon State and what

1307
01:05:32,920 --> 01:05:35,600
Speaker 1: could be the spot of the weekend taking on UNLV

1308
01:05:35,760 --> 01:05:38,360
Speaker 1: is gonna come up to Corvallis. They just got done

1309
01:05:38,600 --> 01:05:40,840
Speaker 1: routing Utah State or two to zero in the Mountain West.

1310
01:05:40,880 --> 01:05:42,760
Speaker 1: They're gonna go up to Corvallis. And what's coming on

1311
01:05:42,920 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 1: deck a short week Friday night bonanza extravaganza against Boise

1312
01:05:48,040 --> 01:05:51,600
Speaker 1: State next week, the G five showcase of the year.

1313
01:05:52,280 --> 01:05:54,160
Speaker 1: So why would you care about going to Corvallis an

1314
01:05:54,200 --> 01:05:57,000
Speaker 1: out a conference game that doesn't mean anything except maybe

1315
01:05:57,040 --> 01:05:58,640
Speaker 1: the fact that you might not make a college football

1316
01:05:58,640 --> 01:06:01,280
Speaker 1: playoff if you lose this game. Interesting to note the

1317
01:06:01,280 --> 01:06:05,080
Speaker 1: Beaver's defensive coordinator, Keith Hayward, very familiar with Las Vegas.

1318
01:06:05,120 --> 01:06:07,000
Speaker 1: He was on the Raiders' staff last year, but before that,

1319
01:06:07,080 --> 01:06:09,680
Speaker 1: he was the defensive coordinator at UNLV before Barry Odom

1320
01:06:09,720 --> 01:06:12,960
Speaker 1: took over. There is a lot of overlap with the

1321
01:06:13,000 --> 01:06:16,840
Speaker 1: go go offensive Brennan Marion, who arrived after he departed too,

1322
01:06:16,880 --> 01:06:18,760
Speaker 1: But remember he stayed in Las Vegas and he's close

1323
01:06:18,800 --> 01:06:22,240
Speaker 1: to the program and probably knows how to defend this offense.

1324
01:06:22,960 --> 01:06:25,760
Speaker 1: Injuries have been a really large concern for this Oregon

1325
01:06:25,840 --> 01:06:28,640
Speaker 1: State defense. You can't really look in their analytics and

1326
01:06:28,680 --> 01:06:30,240
Speaker 1: say this is going to be a great play. Oregon

1327
01:06:30,280 --> 01:06:33,120
Speaker 1: State has been torn up on the ground here across

1328
01:06:33,160 --> 01:06:35,360
Speaker 1: the board, so we need their defense to step up

1329
01:06:35,400 --> 01:06:37,400
Speaker 1: here at home. They need a little core ballast magic.

1330
01:06:37,720 --> 01:06:39,840
Speaker 1: And the best option against UNLV is the Oregon State

1331
01:06:39,960 --> 01:06:42,680
Speaker 1: rushing offense. And this is exactly what Vanderbilt does. This

1332
01:06:42,800 --> 01:06:44,760
Speaker 1: is what service academies do. We're going to choke you

1333
01:06:44,840 --> 01:06:46,320
Speaker 1: out on the ground. You're not going to get any

1334
01:06:46,320 --> 01:06:48,440
Speaker 1: possessions for that. Go go offense, and we're going to

1335
01:06:48,560 --> 01:06:50,480
Speaker 1: run the ball and get about one hundred first downs here.

1336
01:06:50,760 --> 01:06:52,360
Speaker 1: If you look at that rushing offense, it's about a

1337
01:06:52,400 --> 01:06:54,800
Speaker 1: sixty three percent rate. They are top ten and rushing

1338
01:06:54,840 --> 01:06:58,040
Speaker 1: success rate, they are top ten. Also in quality drives.

1339
01:06:58,080 --> 01:07:01,600
Speaker 1: Oregon State does get themselves in scoring position often. Anthony

1340
01:07:01,640 --> 01:07:04,520
Speaker 1: Hakerson's up to twelve tds this season, both he and

1341
01:07:05,400 --> 01:07:08,840
Speaker 1: Jamiis Griffin. They've combined for thirty one rushing attempts that

1342
01:07:08,920 --> 01:07:10,960
Speaker 1: have gone for at least ten yards. So they do

1343
01:07:11,080 --> 01:07:15,320
Speaker 1: have explosive runs that move the chains man outside inside zone.

1344
01:07:15,400 --> 01:07:17,480
Speaker 1: All of those run concepts are in there. Those are

1345
01:07:17,520 --> 01:07:19,919
Speaker 1: things that UNLV have had problems with this year. They've

1346
01:07:19,960 --> 01:07:23,440
Speaker 1: been torched by inside zone so and have it allowed

1347
01:07:23,840 --> 01:07:26,200
Speaker 1: advantages for the Beavers here. UNLV is not going to

1348
01:07:26,240 --> 01:07:28,720
Speaker 1: be able to get in past that offensive line and

1349
01:07:28,800 --> 01:07:30,800
Speaker 1: play around in the backfield and get tackles for loss

1350
01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:33,720
Speaker 1: against this Oregon State offensive line. So I like Oregon State.

1351
01:07:34,080 --> 01:07:35,880
Speaker 1: They need to own the time of possession, which they

1352
01:07:35,920 --> 01:07:38,320
Speaker 1: should here. They ought to own first downs, which they

1353
01:07:38,360 --> 01:07:40,160
Speaker 1: should here, and that ground game will get them into

1354
01:07:40,160 --> 01:07:42,479
Speaker 1: scoring position and keep that UNLV go go off the field.

1355
01:07:43,000 --> 01:07:45,960
Speaker 3: I agree both played against the spread, didn't ad West Jennings.

1356
01:07:45,960 --> 01:07:47,640
Speaker 3: I haven't played them against the spread yet, but add

1357
01:07:47,680 --> 01:07:49,720
Speaker 3: an Oregon State here. Just the numbers. But I hate

1358
01:07:49,760 --> 01:07:51,520
Speaker 3: this Oregon State team, but I think the hate has

1359
01:07:51,560 --> 01:07:54,280
Speaker 3: gone too far. The run defense is atrocious, with which

1360
01:07:54,320 --> 01:07:56,720
Speaker 3: worries me. But get a tough spot for you and

1361
01:07:57,120 --> 01:07:59,280
Speaker 3: I think valuable number and by the way, I mean

1362
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:01,560
Speaker 3: you and these defensas be Gas what have been on

1363
01:08:01,600 --> 01:08:04,959
Speaker 3: the field two straight games, ninety plus plays last week

1364
01:08:05,040 --> 01:08:08,320
Speaker 3: in elevation. Here's a little nugget for you. There's nine

1365
01:08:08,440 --> 01:08:12,560
Speaker 3: FBS stadiums that are four thousand plus feet in altitude.

1366
01:08:13,560 --> 01:08:17,000
Speaker 3: Teams that play a road game in one of those

1367
01:08:17,080 --> 01:08:18,880
Speaker 3: nine and then play a road game the next week

1368
01:08:19,880 --> 01:08:22,320
Speaker 3: ninety one to twenty and five against the spread since

1369
01:08:22,360 --> 01:08:26,320
Speaker 3: two thousand and five, has road favorites twenty eight fifty

1370
01:08:26,400 --> 01:08:31,439
Speaker 3: and one thirty six percent, sixteen thirty nine and one

1371
01:08:31,840 --> 01:08:34,040
Speaker 3: twenty nine percent against the spread, one favor by more

1372
01:08:34,080 --> 01:08:36,400
Speaker 3: than four points. So you could see some fatigue here

1373
01:08:36,520 --> 01:08:38,800
Speaker 3: for sure on the defensive end against the team that

1374
01:08:38,880 --> 01:08:41,800
Speaker 3: wants to just lean on you with that big offensive line.

1375
01:08:42,840 --> 01:08:45,160
Speaker 3: All right, we're gonna go for it fourth down. Our

1376
01:08:45,240 --> 01:08:47,200
Speaker 3: favorite bet of the weekend.

1377
01:08:48,000 --> 01:08:51,080
Speaker 1: God damn, this is fun this week.

1378
01:08:51,479 --> 01:08:56,680
Speaker 3: I'm fading Iowa. I'm going with Michigan State. I this

1379
01:08:56,880 --> 01:09:00,680
Speaker 3: is a really good spot. Iowa is they look they

1380
01:09:00,800 --> 01:09:03,600
Speaker 3: blew out Washington a bit of a misleading final. It

1381
01:09:03,720 --> 01:09:07,439
Speaker 3: was a spectacular situational spot. But now I think you're

1382
01:09:07,479 --> 01:09:11,479
Speaker 3: getting Michigan State in a great situational spot. This is

1383
01:09:11,520 --> 01:09:15,919
Speaker 3: a team off of games against Ohio State and Oregon.

1384
01:09:16,560 --> 01:09:20,960
Speaker 3: Now you get what fifteen days off before this game

1385
01:09:21,040 --> 01:09:24,200
Speaker 3: against Iowa. I think that means a lot, especially early

1386
01:09:24,240 --> 01:09:26,439
Speaker 3: in the season with a team that has had so

1387
01:09:26,600 --> 01:09:29,800
Speaker 3: much turnover and has a new staff and a staff

1388
01:09:29,840 --> 01:09:33,640
Speaker 3: that I highly respect. From a matchup perspective. Number one,

1389
01:09:33,680 --> 01:09:36,160
Speaker 3: this Iowa defense is not the same elite unit as

1390
01:09:36,200 --> 01:09:40,360
Speaker 3: it has been specifically along their defensive line. They want

1391
01:09:40,400 --> 01:09:44,439
Speaker 3: to run the ball, lean on Caleb Johnson. Michigan State's

1392
01:09:44,479 --> 01:09:47,280
Speaker 3: defensive strength is their run day. So I think they

1393
01:09:47,360 --> 01:09:52,040
Speaker 3: match up pretty well here. Jonathan Smith coach, I highly respect.

1394
01:09:52,120 --> 01:09:55,240
Speaker 3: I think we'll have Michigan State ready here with extra

1395
01:09:55,320 --> 01:09:57,599
Speaker 3: time to prepare eight or more day. He's got fifteen here,

1396
01:09:57,680 --> 01:10:00,400
Speaker 3: by the way, ten and two against the spread, eight

1397
01:10:00,479 --> 01:10:03,040
Speaker 3: and one as an underdog, covered by about a field

1398
01:10:03,080 --> 01:10:06,640
Speaker 3: goal per game. Give me Sparty, where you.

1399
01:10:06,680 --> 01:10:09,160
Speaker 1: Going Michigan State off that buye? We got a trust

1400
01:10:09,200 --> 01:10:11,599
Speaker 1: in Jonathan Smith there. I'm gonna go up to stores,

1401
01:10:11,640 --> 01:10:13,880
Speaker 1: Connecticut where Wake Forest is going to travel up to

1402
01:10:13,960 --> 01:10:16,760
Speaker 1: play Yukon, who is coming off of a buye. Here,

1403
01:10:16,800 --> 01:10:19,599
Speaker 1: We're going to go back the Huskies. Wake has lost

1404
01:10:19,640 --> 01:10:21,960
Speaker 1: to one possession games. I'm not sure if they really

1405
01:10:22,080 --> 01:10:24,360
Speaker 1: have the makeup to keep it close and win somebody's

1406
01:10:24,400 --> 01:10:26,800
Speaker 1: one possession games. That's two that they've lost already this year.

1407
01:10:27,160 --> 01:10:30,240
Speaker 1: And frankly, they were box score frauds in that one

1408
01:10:30,439 --> 01:10:33,200
Speaker 1: road trip they've had this season against INC State. There

1409
01:10:33,240 --> 01:10:35,680
Speaker 1: was an early NC State fumble in that game that

1410
01:10:36,200 --> 01:10:39,360
Speaker 1: created a two play, two yard drive for wake Forest

1411
01:10:39,439 --> 01:10:41,120
Speaker 1: to get the score that was needed to win that.

1412
01:10:41,360 --> 01:10:43,680
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of fraudulence going on in the

1413
01:10:43,720 --> 01:10:45,840
Speaker 1: wake Forest box scores. Not a believer of what they've

1414
01:10:45,880 --> 01:10:48,080
Speaker 1: done so far. Yukon has been great at home. They've

1415
01:10:48,120 --> 01:10:51,040
Speaker 1: won five straight, They're coming off of bye week. Offense

1416
01:10:51,080 --> 01:10:53,120
Speaker 1: has been in cruise control at home. They've scored at

1417
01:10:53,240 --> 01:10:55,479
Speaker 1: least forty seven points in three or four games at

1418
01:10:55,520 --> 01:10:58,000
Speaker 1: home this season. The Deacons are in a non con

1419
01:10:58,160 --> 01:11:00,760
Speaker 1: sandwich right here. They just got to on the ground

1420
01:11:00,800 --> 01:11:03,240
Speaker 1: by Clemson. They got Stanford next week before they finally

1421
01:11:03,240 --> 01:11:06,000
Speaker 1: get to Thereby. I imagine they're more worried about their

1422
01:11:06,040 --> 01:11:08,960
Speaker 1: acc schedule than they are traveling up to Connecticut. And

1423
01:11:09,080 --> 01:11:12,000
Speaker 1: Yukon right now is top twenty in defensive passing success rate.

1424
01:11:12,080 --> 01:11:14,960
Speaker 1: That's going to be needed facing Hank Bachmaer and Wake

1425
01:11:15,040 --> 01:11:17,200
Speaker 1: is one hundred and thirty third in defensive stuff rate.

1426
01:11:17,400 --> 01:11:19,240
Speaker 1: Are they even trying to play defense in the A

1427
01:11:19,360 --> 01:11:22,240
Speaker 1: and B gaps on short yardage situations? That's not going

1428
01:11:22,280 --> 01:11:24,639
Speaker 1: to be good against the Yukon trio of Darrel Robinson,

1429
01:11:24,680 --> 01:11:27,759
Speaker 1: Cameron Edwards and Mel Brown. That trio has created forty

1430
01:11:27,800 --> 01:11:30,760
Speaker 1: five missed tackles each of them averaging between three point

1431
01:11:30,800 --> 01:11:33,920
Speaker 1: four to four point two yards after first contact. This

1432
01:11:34,160 --> 01:11:37,240
Speaker 1: ground game for Yukon is for real. Wake Forest can't

1433
01:11:37,280 --> 01:11:39,439
Speaker 1: defend it, and I don't think wake Forest cares about

1434
01:11:39,439 --> 01:11:41,479
Speaker 1: this game. So give me Yukon here in our fourth

1435
01:11:41,520 --> 01:11:42,080
Speaker 1: down attempt.

1436
01:11:42,600 --> 01:11:43,920
Speaker 3: All right, Donald, do it for us. Let's take a

1437
01:11:43,960 --> 01:11:45,760
Speaker 3: quick look at the board. No head to heads this week?

1438
01:11:46,240 --> 01:11:49,519
Speaker 1: No he pick a Friday night game. You'll beat me?

1439
01:11:49,800 --> 01:11:52,400
Speaker 3: Please? Will you please? Bet dude? Give me a bet duke, please,

1440
01:11:52,439 --> 01:11:55,000
Speaker 3: bet duke. Here's the board. I agree. We're ten and one,

1441
01:11:55,400 --> 01:11:59,280
Speaker 3: so started tracking on agrees this week Oak State Kentucky

1442
01:11:59,760 --> 01:12:08,360
Speaker 3: or in state ECU Maryland, Charlotte, Arkansas. Yeah, so we

1443
01:12:08,479 --> 01:12:12,600
Speaker 3: got seven degrees the trash just five and one for

1444
01:12:12,720 --> 01:12:14,439
Speaker 3: me one and oh for con just four from me

1445
01:12:14,600 --> 01:12:17,920
Speaker 3: EASTU Charlotte, Ball State Western Michigan. That'll know for us,

1446
01:12:18,720 --> 01:12:21,760
Speaker 3: hopefully leads as winners. Thanks for tuning in. Thanks to Colin,

1447
01:12:21,760 --> 01:12:23,240
Speaker 3: as always, thanks to our producer Mat Mitchell in the

1448
01:12:23,240 --> 01:12:24,519
Speaker 3: back end. Most poorly, thanks to all of you for

1449
01:12:24,560 --> 01:12:27,439
Speaker 3: tuning in. Make sure you subscribe on subscribe, subscribe, Tell

1450
01:12:27,479 --> 01:12:29,640
Speaker 3: a friend, tell an enemy, leave a review. You know

1451
01:12:29,720 --> 01:12:32,920
Speaker 3: the deal. Group of five guys. Our episodes already out

1452
01:12:33,000 --> 01:12:35,920
Speaker 3: live show ten thirty EM Eastern on Saturday. Recap episode

1453
01:12:36,000 --> 01:12:38,680
Speaker 3: will be out Monday. Make sure you call it the

1454
01:12:38,760 --> 01:12:40,800
Speaker 3: voicemail nine to five nine bad Beat scream at us

1455
01:12:40,840 --> 01:12:43,360
Speaker 3: for all of our bad takes. I'm sure we're gonna

1456
01:12:43,360 --> 01:12:45,479
Speaker 3: hear about it of Army and Navy cover. Oh boy.

1457
01:12:47,040 --> 01:12:49,800
Speaker 3: So thanks for tuning in again. Let's keep it rolling

1458
01:12:50,080 --> 01:12:53,160
Speaker 3: in week eight. See you all on Saturday. Cheers.

1459
01:12:53,560 --> 01:13:05,639
Speaker 1: Peace Out Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1460
01:13:05,720 --> 01:13:08,280
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1461
01:13:08,600 --> 01:13:11,200
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1462
01:13:11,280 --> 01:13:12,040
Speaker 1: hundred gambler