1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:05,120 Speaker 1: The most valuable commandity I know of is information. Wouldn't 2 00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:08,959 Speaker 1: you agree? No? Five dollars? This is a ragable lesson 3 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:16,160 Speaker 1: about they tap ship one man. You're saying that humans 4 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:21,279 Speaker 1: need fantasy to make life bearable. Humans need fantasy to 5 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: be human. My goodness, mispeak prone, the best, relentless, refusing 6 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: to give up. 7 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:33,240 Speaker 2: All right, hit that horn, very bless. 8 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:39,200 Speaker 3: What's up everybody, and welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast. 9 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 3: I am your host, Chris Raybon, joined by one of 10 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 3: the top fantasy football rankers in the industry and Sean Perner. 11 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 3: And today we are going to be talking all about props. 12 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 3: We're gonna do our top season long props. We'll give 13 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 3: you twelve in total, uh fore passing for rushing, for receiving. 14 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 3: So should be a good episode. Show what's going on? Yeah, 15 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:03,959 Speaker 3: what's up? 16 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 2: Usually we do our propapalooza like very late in the offseason, 17 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 2: right before the season starts, so this kind of feels like, 18 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 2: uh Christmas in July. This is always my favorite pod 19 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 2: to do player props to. 20 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, and we'll do another one just you know, we'll 21 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: do another one closer the year. 22 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 2: But and I think a whole I'm got to your 23 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,680 Speaker 2: hon wrote wrote, real quick, I think you went like 24 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 2: eleven and one last year in our season props. I 25 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 2: think I did horrible. I went like nine and three 26 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:31,680 Speaker 2: or something, but you crushed it. I think you only 27 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 2: missed one. 28 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 3: I think I remember the one I missed too. I 29 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:36,759 Speaker 3: think it was Nick Chabb under rushing yards of course. 30 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 2: Oh and that's the only one I pushed back. Probably 31 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 2: that probably is right. 32 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: God damn it. 33 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 3: I can't be modeling these motherfucking running back a half 34 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 3: yards for carry. 35 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 2: He's the only guy who got wrong. Yeah. 36 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 3: No, it was a good year for player props, so 37 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 3: hopefully we can we can repeat. 38 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: But we're gonna, yeah, we're just gonna. 39 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 3: We wanted to get kind of some early ones out 40 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 3: there just because the lines are out and they are 41 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 3: gonna change, which is why we'll do another one kind 42 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 3: of to bookend it later in the closer to the season. 43 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: But before we jump into that. 44 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 3: Real quick, every week we take a five star review 45 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 3: and we give you guys a free year of action 46 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:23,640 Speaker 3: pro So this week's winner is b City one thirty eight. 47 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 1: Really appreciate you listening to the pod and leaving the review. 48 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 3: If you want to claim your free year of Action 49 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 3: pro hit Up podcast at actionnetwork dot com for everyone listening. 50 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 3: We do appreciate you, and if you appreciate us, head 51 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 3: over to Apple leave us a five star review. We'll 52 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:47,519 Speaker 3: pick the favorite one for the winner next week. Let's 53 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 3: jump into a question real quick, Sean, before we get 54 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 3: into the actual props. 55 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:55,799 Speaker 1: I just want to know you're kind of. 56 00:02:55,800 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 3: General philosophy as far as betting seasons, especially now when 57 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 3: I think it's still a little bit early. 58 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 1: You know, we still haven't even started preseason. 59 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I mean, obviously it sort of begins and 60 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:13,920 Speaker 2: ends with my player projections. You know, you and I 61 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,080 Speaker 2: we both project every player for the entire season. But 62 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 2: when it comes to season long player props, you just 63 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:23,079 Speaker 2: have to factor in the range of outcomes. And when 64 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 2: it comes to these season long player props, usually the 65 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 2: under has a ton of value because there's so many 66 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 2: outs to hit it. You know, if a guy gets 67 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 2: injured and misses time, I mean, that's usually very good 68 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 2: for the under. Suspensions happen, you know, other things, or 69 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 2: you know, they get leap frog by their backup. So 70 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 2: there are certain players that we'll talk about today that 71 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 2: I think, you know, have that potential. But then, like 72 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 2: I said last year, when when I do like an over, 73 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 2: I I like to look at those markets where it's 74 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 2: like most passing yards, most rushing yards, most receiving yards, 75 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 2: because you know, I want to have some fun and 76 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 2: you know, get in like a fifty to one bet 77 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 2: this time here is usually the way to kind of 78 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 2: invest in somebody's ceiling, because it is hard whenever you're 79 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 2: betting an over on one of these medium projections, you 80 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 2: sort of need a lot of things to go right. 81 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 2: So in general, I think you have sort of the 82 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 2: same philosophy. We're going to be sort of attacking the 83 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:23,599 Speaker 2: unders just because there's so many hidden outs when it 84 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:25,599 Speaker 2: comes to the under. Yeah. 85 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 3: Absolutely, I think that that's kind of my number one 86 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 3: rule with betting the normal season total projections is bet 87 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:37,280 Speaker 3: all unders because yes, injuries are something that you can't predict, 88 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 3: but there's really no upside to think like to saying, Okay, 89 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 3: a guy is going to play the amount of games 90 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 3: I have projected for him or more, you know, because 91 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 3: we usually project players to miss between you know, one 92 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 3: and maybe two and a half games on average, depending 93 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 3: on the position. So you know, there's a lot of 94 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 3: like you said, there's a lot of outs with the 95 00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 3: under where he could play a full season and struggle 96 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 3: to play a full season and lose the job. You know, 97 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 3: we could just have a somewhat of an inefficient year, 98 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 3: like you know, I'll talk about a guy who's I 99 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 3: think is gonna have a great season and still go 100 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 3: under one of his props. And so there's just so 101 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 3: many outs, whereas with the over, you kind of need 102 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 3: a lot of things to go right. You need you 103 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 3: need him to play most of the season, you need 104 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 3: him to be playing well, you need him to be 105 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:25,039 Speaker 3: playing well in that specific stat category. It's just a 106 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 3: lot harder to hit these these overs. And I think 107 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 3: especially now this time of year, it's still puff p season. 108 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 3: You know, there's way too much optimism ye floating around 109 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:37,719 Speaker 3: right now. So we gotta kind of throw a little 110 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 3: wrench in that and. 111 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:40,719 Speaker 1: Bang these unders. 112 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 3: I mean, the books probably love us because they're taking 113 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:46,480 Speaker 3: all over money anyways, though, Yeah, we balanced their books 114 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:49,559 Speaker 3: a little bit with some of the bets where we're taking. 115 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 3: And I hope people out there listening kind of subscribe 116 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:53,359 Speaker 3: to the same notion. 117 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:54,840 Speaker 1: I mean, we talked about this. 118 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 3: We have a podcast out right Now, you know expert 119 00:05:57,880 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 3: series where you and I talk about how we bet 120 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 3: props in season and you made the point of like 121 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:05,040 Speaker 3: that's your number one thing is really just targain it under. 122 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 1: So I think the same applies to season long. Let's 123 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:09,160 Speaker 1: jump right into it. 124 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 3: Who what is your favorite passing prop right now for 125 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:15,280 Speaker 3: twenty twenty two? 126 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 2: So I do like this Baker Mayfield under threey eight 127 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:24,279 Speaker 2: hundred and a half passing yards. He's only clear to 128 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:26,600 Speaker 2: this once in four years. Granted we are playing an 129 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 2: extra game now, but you know the Browns are very 130 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:31,479 Speaker 2: run heavy team and he's going to a very run 131 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:35,279 Speaker 2: heavy team and the Panthers. The Browns ran the ball 132 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:38,360 Speaker 2: at the thirteenth highest rate on early downs last year, 133 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 2: and the Panthers were the eight highest. Right, there was 134 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 2: a stretch there where they were just insanely run heavy. 135 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 2: I remember you were attacking two behovers over during that stretch, 136 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,799 Speaker 2: but it goes to show they were running a ton 137 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 2: even when Christian McCaffrey was down. A lot of that 138 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 2: had to do with masking Sam Darnol, of course, but 139 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 2: either way, this is sort of a run heavy offense, 140 00:06:57,680 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 2: so it's going to be hard to project Baker to 141 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:03,159 Speaker 2: hear this, you know, outside of Dj Moore and Chris McCaffrey, 142 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 2: they don't really have that many weapons. So imagine if 143 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 2: either one of those guys misses time, that's gonna really 144 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 2: ding Baker Mayfield. You know, hopefully Robbie Anderson can bounce 145 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 2: back after just a horrific season, or Terrence Marshall after 146 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 2: just a really at this point rookie season, and Tommy 147 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 2: Trumble and Ian Thomas is arguably be the worst tight 148 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 2: end group in the league. So there's just not much 149 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 2: to like here, right, And there's no guarantee that Baker 150 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 2: is gonna start seventeen games and healthy. I mean, I 151 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:34,160 Speaker 2: would say that's likely, but we could see Sam Darnold 152 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 2: earn a starter to he miraculously. Yeah, like. 153 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 1: A strong word. 154 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 2: They have a camp battle going for the season. We 155 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 2: know who's gonna win. But this this you know, organization 156 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 2: is a dumpster fire. Sorry, Samantha, And you know third 157 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 2: round pick Matt corral Like towards the end of the season, 158 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 2: if they're out of the playoffs, it would not surprise 159 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 2: me if they just let him get a starter or too. 160 00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 2: So that again, that's an out for this under projecting 161 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 2: Baker closer to you know, thirty six hundred third three thousand, 162 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 2: six hundred and fifty passing ards to be exact, but 163 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 2: there he does have a dangerously low flour of not 164 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 2: starting all seventeen games. So that's why I love the 165 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 2: value we're getting on the under here. 166 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: I have a foul up question. 167 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 3: Actually I don't actually know if you know the answer 168 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 3: to this, but I know you have some experience kind 169 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 3: of with book making and dealing with the markets. Is 170 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 3: there is there a reason why they always round to 171 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 3: like the nearest fifty or twenty five is? And have 172 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:33,680 Speaker 3: you ever found value that like because you just like 173 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:35,840 Speaker 3: you just mentioned you have them around thirty six fifty, 174 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 3: which is are you rounding their tour? 175 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 1: Is that just actually where you have them? 176 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:42,200 Speaker 2: I'm just rounding. It's easier to say that and saying 177 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:45,199 Speaker 2: something like three thousand, six hundred and fifty three is 178 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 2: that really adding anything in that three? So sometimes small 179 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:52,320 Speaker 2: edges man, I mean sportsbooks, it's similar, like they just 180 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:56,080 Speaker 2: want clean numbers. They're not trying to you know, use 181 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 2: like you know, three thousand, eight hundred and two, Like 182 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 2: it's just easier to just have clean numbers visually gotcha? 183 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 1: All right, Well, it's. 184 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 2: Kind of like when you harp on me for not 185 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 2: adding the extra half. 186 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,559 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, Well that's important though, because that's the 187 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:14,679 Speaker 3: difference between like a push and a win if you're 188 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 3: talking about you know, certain things. But yeah, I'm gonna 189 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 3: I'm gonna thank you for going with Baker Mayfield' passing yards. 190 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:24,880 Speaker 3: I'm gonna agree with you that I think the market 191 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 3: is too optimistic on Baker now, even if you play 192 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:31,439 Speaker 3: is a full season, and I'm gonna go with Mayfield 193 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 3: under twenty two and a half passing touchdowns. And I 194 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:38,239 Speaker 3: like the touchdowns as well, because I'm looking at Carolina 195 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,199 Speaker 3: last season and they have fourteen passing touchdowns. 196 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: Okay, well the. 197 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:46,079 Speaker 3: Year before, you know, they had a better quarterback and 198 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 3: Teddy Bridgewater, you know, a little more to the level 199 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 3: I think Baker Mayfield is a and they still had 200 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 3: only sixteen passing touchdowns. And remember I think it was 201 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 3: Bridgewaterer that was saying they don't even they weren't even 202 00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 3: like practicing red. 203 00:09:57,360 --> 00:09:59,680 Speaker 1: Zone and red zone drills at one point. 204 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 3: So like, I don't see Baker Mayfield coming here and 205 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 3: throwing twenty three or more touchdowns. 206 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 1: I mean, you look at this team. 207 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 3: In as much as I love DJ Moore, he's their 208 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 3: best receiver. He's eleven hundred plus the rounded yards in 209 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 3: each of the last three seasons, clearly their best receiver. 210 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 1: The man has never caught more than four touchdowns. So 211 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 1: when your. 212 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:27,440 Speaker 3: Best, most highly targeted wide receiver has never equipped four 213 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 3: touchdowns in a season, despite playing fifteen games and catching 214 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 3: you know, eleven hundred plus yards of offense each year, 215 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 3: that tells me it's just going to be hard for 216 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 3: the quarterback to throw a ton of touch of scores. 217 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 3: You know, I know Christian McCaffrey will get a few, 218 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 3: but you mentioned Robbie. 219 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 1: He struggled. Terrence Marshall looks like a bust as of now. 220 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 3: So and the tight ends really aren't guys you expect 221 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 3: to catch even five combined. 222 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 2: Which is tough because you kind of want your tight 223 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 2: ends to be red zone weapons, right, you do? You do? 224 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 1: But yeah, so I just don't see number one. 225 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 3: You know, Mayfield, I know he was hurt last year, 226 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 3: but you know, seventeen and fourteen games with a probably 227 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 3: better offense, I just you know that would have been 228 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 3: on pace for twenty point six and seventeen games. You know, 229 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 3: I'm projecting him more for twenty one twenty one point something, 230 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 3: So I just don't see how Baker Mayfield it gets 231 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 3: to twenty three with any type of you know, fifty 232 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:32,359 Speaker 3: percent or more regularity. 233 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 1: I think that the chances are a lot lower. With you. 234 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 2: I'm with you there. I will say the reason I 235 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 2: passed on this and took the yardage is because I'll 236 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:45,079 Speaker 2: get you later. But I have Christian McCaffrey under eight 237 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 2: and a half rushing touchdown, so that the relation between 238 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 2: the two. But I think we'll both win, win both 239 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 2: these props. 240 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,079 Speaker 3: Yeah, and this is assuming he put like you said, 241 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 3: he even has to play like sixteen seventeen games probably 242 00:11:56,400 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 3: to challenge for this. 243 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:00,040 Speaker 1: All right, Number two we got passing. 244 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 2: So I love this one. It's Davis Mills to lead 245 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 2: the league in interceptions thrown at ten to one, And 246 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 2: I will say I'm the first one to admit that 247 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,560 Speaker 2: Davis Mills was a pleasant surprise last year as a rookie, 248 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 2: especially considering we had five quarterbacks drafted in the first round, 249 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:19,320 Speaker 2: so it was pretty incredible at Mills, you know, a 250 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 2: third round pick out of Stanford ended up being arguably 251 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 2: the second best quarterback in the class last year, I 252 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 2: would say, behind Mac Jones. It was a pretty bad 253 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 2: performance all around by all the rookies. But I read 254 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:36,079 Speaker 2: a very good article on Football Outsiders that broke down 255 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 2: TV's interception rate where they looked at you know, drop 256 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 2: balls by the defense that should have been picked off, 257 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 2: tip balls by wide receivers that probably shouldn't have been 258 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 2: an interception, and they removed hail Mary attempts. And while 259 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:51,520 Speaker 2: Mills had a very you know, he had a decent 260 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 2: interception rate last year at two point six percent, he 261 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 2: hadn't expected interception rate of four point one percent, which 262 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 2: was the second highest among all all returning starters this year. 263 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 2: So I think we could see him struggle in year 264 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:07,720 Speaker 2: two with interceptions. And you know, he had such a 265 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 2: good rookie season that he has the entire season to 266 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 2: audition for, you know, the future. I think if the 267 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,719 Speaker 2: Texans have a top pick next year, they're going to 268 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 2: go with quarterbacks, so they're going to let him start, 269 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 2: I would assume all seventeen games, no matter what is 270 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 2: going on. So even if he's struggling, they might just 271 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 2: keep him in there to go full tank mode. He 272 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 2: only has Kyle Allen backing him up, So I just 273 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 2: think this is a recipe for a very high ceiling 274 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 2: on his interception total this year. I think he should 275 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:38,480 Speaker 2: be the market leader. I think guys like Trevor Lawrence, 276 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 2: Zach Wilson they should only improve this year, where Mills 277 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 2: will probably regress. So I have him right around fourteen 278 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 2: and a half interceptions closer to fifteen, So I'm not 279 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 2: attacking that market. I think the value here is taking 280 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 2: him at ten to one to lead the league. 281 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 1: So this one, I'm not gonna lie. It scares me 282 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 1: a little right now, I would like to. 283 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think it's gonna get much higher, 284 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 3: Like I don't think you're gonna lose a lot of 285 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 3: value by waiting a little bit. But I am hearing 286 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 3: some chatter about the Texas and Jimmy G. I don't 287 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 3: think it makes any sense, But people are saying cause 288 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 3: Nick Cassario, you know, has the Patriots ties, and that 289 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 3: you know when Jimmy G was there, and they might 290 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 3: you know, acquire him. I don't. I don't see why 291 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 3: they would do it, But I rather know for sure 292 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 3: that Mills is gonna be the starter because that you know, 293 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 3: it's kind of what we said, like this is in 294 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 3: essence and over in a you know, in a way. 295 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I would want to check if sometimes these rules 296 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 2: have they have to play in week one for action, 297 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 2: so I's like this this this could be a market 298 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 2: though that's just you know, all bets are action. But 299 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 2: that that is an interesting point, and it's it's annoying 300 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 2: that we still don't know what type of Jimmy g 301 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 2: I'd be surprised personally. I'd be surprised if the Texans 302 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 2: make a move for him. But yeah, certainly if you 303 00:14:57,400 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 2: want to wait for something like this, I don't think 304 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 2: the odds are going to drop or any thing. 305 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. 306 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 2: But assuming he starts week one, I love it at 307 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 2: ten to one. 308 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 3: All right, I'll go with and I this was one 309 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 3: of the ones I'm pretty sure I won last year. 310 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 3: I'm going right back to the well Lamar Jackson under 311 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 3: six and a half rushing touchdowns and you know, when 312 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 3: I pick, I think the number was the same. It 313 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 3: might have been seven and a half last year. I 314 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 3: think it was six and a half, but you know 315 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 3: he was coming off too straight seven touchdown seasons. But 316 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 3: that there's just a lot of regression with these rushing 317 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 3: stats for quarterbacks. Even if you are you know, the 318 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 3: yardage kind of stays consistent, and to carry stay consistent, 319 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 3: it's tough to get to seven rushing touchdowns. And to 320 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 3: kind of put that in perspective, you know, even with 321 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 3: the two seven touchdown seasons, Lamar scored sixteen in his last. 322 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:48,480 Speaker 1: Forty two games started over the past three years. 323 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 3: That's still if you take that per game average and 324 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 3: multiply it by seventeen, that still puts some just short 325 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 3: of six and a half. So remember, you need the 326 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 3: seven to actually win the bet. So I actually have 327 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 3: him projected for around four and a half rushing touchdowns 328 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 3: this season. 329 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 1: I know you have. I think you have him around 330 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 1: four point seven or something like that. 331 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 3: So you know, that's kind of when you just factor 332 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 3: in what a court of running quarterback like Lamar, you know, 333 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 3: the normal touchdown rates that you would expect, and I 334 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 3: do haven't projected right, you know, right around that nine 335 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:23,120 Speaker 3: hundred yard mark that the books have them. But I 336 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 3: just think they're way over estimating his touchdowns because just 337 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 3: because he doesn't have a great receiving corps doesn't automatically 338 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 3: mean that he's just. 339 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 1: Gonna run for more touchdowns. 340 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 3: Especially Lamar, He's never been like a major, major red 341 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 3: zone threat like some of these, like a Josh Allen 342 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 3: for example. So you know, I just think that the 343 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 3: numbers too, and that's before even counting the fact that, 344 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 3: just like we saw last year, he could miss games 345 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 3: and if they do have to rely on him to 346 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 3: run more, then it just increases the injury risk. So 347 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:53,160 Speaker 3: I think you have a lot of outs with Lamar 348 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 3: even playing a full seventeen games. I think you have 349 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 3: a lot of outs with Lamar in terms of the 350 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 3: touchdowns up at six and a half, Yeah, I love it. 351 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:04,520 Speaker 2: And I think you did get seven and a half 352 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 2: last year, which he's never cleared, but maybe they were 353 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 2: factoring in the extra potential game that he'd play, but 354 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 2: he only had two and twelve games. And yeah, they 355 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:17,359 Speaker 2: get JK. Dobbins presumably back by week one, Gus Edwards, 356 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,160 Speaker 2: So yeah, he's not a guy that you'd really expect 357 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 2: for them to lean on when they get to the 358 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 2: red zone. And even he had those two great rushing seasons, 359 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 2: you know, he just barely cleared this at seven. So yeah, 360 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 2: love the outs on the under, and I'm projecting this 361 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 2: yeah closer to five as well, So this is a 362 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:35,119 Speaker 2: smash under for me as well. 363 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 3: I was jumped to running backs. Let's start off, who 364 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 3: you got with your first or favorite running back prop 365 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 3: right now? 366 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 2: So I'm going with Elijah Mitchell under seven and a 367 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:49,840 Speaker 2: half rushing touchdowns. It's at minus one thirty right now. 368 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 2: We always talked about how just you know, Kyle Shanan 369 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 2: is unpredictable when it comes to how he handles running backs. 370 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,439 Speaker 2: Usually the projected Week one starting running back for the 371 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:03,119 Speaker 2: four Niners does not farewell. However, it would shock me 372 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 2: if Mitchell does buck that trend this year. I do 373 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 2: like him. I think he's going to have a good season, 374 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 2: but he does have a lower floor than most backs 375 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,720 Speaker 2: just because of the volatility of the Niners running back situation. 376 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 2: But even if he does start the entire season, he 377 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:21,400 Speaker 2: might not clear this number. He only had five rush 378 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 2: attempts inside the five last year, whereas Jeff Wilson, who 379 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:28,159 Speaker 2: only played six games, had four. We know that Shanahan 380 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 2: loves using Jeff Wilson sort of around the goal line, 381 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 2: so I think that definitely limits Mitchell's upside in this market. Plus, 382 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,160 Speaker 2: you know this season, especially around the goal line, Trey 383 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 2: Lance is going to be an option to run it in. 384 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:47,280 Speaker 2: Even Deebo Samuel now that he's sort of a quasi 385 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 2: running back wide receiver, Mitchell just has a ton of 386 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 2: competition near the goal line, where he's not even in 387 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:54,680 Speaker 2: the game most of the time. So I just love 388 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 2: all the outs, the unpredictability of the foreign airs running 389 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:00,760 Speaker 2: back rotation, and the fact that they don't like using 390 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 2: Mitchell as much around the goal line. I just love 391 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:05,440 Speaker 2: the under seven half rushing touchdowns for him. 392 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, he only had five last year, so. 393 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:10,879 Speaker 3: It's not you know, it's not a really good season, 394 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 3: a very good season, yeah, exactly, So you know, yeah, 395 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:17,639 Speaker 3: I think and then then that doesn't even factor in 396 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 3: the injury risk. 397 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:20,199 Speaker 1: Like I like this under a lot too. 398 00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 3: I think it's just one of those things where you know, 399 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,919 Speaker 3: they're kind of penciling them into the starter, but that 400 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 3: doesn't necessarily mean he has eight plus touchdowns even if 401 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 3: he does play most of the year. All right, For 402 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 3: my top running back prop, another one I believe I 403 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:40,440 Speaker 3: went to last year, but Miles Sanders under six and 404 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 3: a half rushing touchdowns it's at minus one forty. We 405 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 3: all know he had none last year. I don't expect 406 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 3: him to have none again this year. I think that, 407 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 3: you know, there's gonna be some regression. But this has 408 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:54,880 Speaker 3: been the story throughout his career. He hasn't really been 409 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 3: a guy who has fared well in terms of scoring 410 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:02,439 Speaker 3: touchdowns on the ground. He has nine in four hundred 411 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 3: and eighty career carries, and to do some math on that, 412 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:09,639 Speaker 3: that's won every fifty three carries, So he would need 413 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 3: about three hundred and seventy three carries to get to 414 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 3: seven touchdowns. And you look at his yardage line at 415 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:19,119 Speaker 3: the at the books and it's nine hundred and a half. 416 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,639 Speaker 1: So like that's projecting him for a. 417 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 3: Century somewhere between one hundred and seventy five and two 418 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 3: hundred carries, which you know that's going to really stretch it. 419 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 3: And I think that's about right. So I think that's 420 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 3: going to really stretch it. As far as him getting touchdowns, 421 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 3: he still has Jalen Hurts. They do kind of cycle in, 422 00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,479 Speaker 3: you know, two three. We even saw sometimes four backs 423 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,000 Speaker 3: in that backfield last year, and I think they'll be 424 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 3: able to pass every er now that they acquired aj 425 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:44,120 Speaker 3: Brown as well. So you know, last year just ten 426 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 3: carries for four yards and no touchdowns inside the ten 427 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 3: yard line. So I don't think they're gonna slam him 428 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:51,879 Speaker 3: into brick walls, you know, down in close. I think 429 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:53,679 Speaker 3: they're gonna have some other creative things to kind of 430 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 3: do you know, they could even at this point re 431 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 3: sign a guy like Jordan Howard or somebody, just like 432 00:20:58,240 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 3: they did last year. They seem to not want to 433 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 3: give standards, you know, that full full workload. I know 434 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 3: he's kind of clamoring for it, but this is a 435 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:09,119 Speaker 3: guy who's missed three games on average per season in 436 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:12,959 Speaker 3: his three year career. So again and just another player 437 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,119 Speaker 3: with a lot of outs at this number. 438 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:18,479 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he took this last year and like 439 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 2: you said, he had zero rushing touchdowns. Obviously he's due 440 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,199 Speaker 2: for some positive aggression. I think looking at just as 441 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 2: Carrie's inside the five guard line, I think he should 442 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:29,679 Speaker 2: have had around two and a half or three, but 443 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:32,119 Speaker 2: still that won't get to seven. Like he's still going 444 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,479 Speaker 2: to have to and he is sort of a home 445 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 2: run back, but he's going to have to rely on 446 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,320 Speaker 2: longer touchdowns, which is always a good sign to bet 447 00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:41,359 Speaker 2: on the under. But like you said, I think that 448 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 2: he's a Jordan Howard signing away from me projecting him 449 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:47,680 Speaker 2: closer to like four or five. So love the value 450 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,359 Speaker 2: we're getting here on under six and a half. We 451 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,919 Speaker 2: got three second one, so I already mentioned it. But 452 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 2: I have Christian McCaffrey under eight and a half rushing touchdowns. 453 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,640 Speaker 2: He's only clear this once in five seasons, and part 454 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 2: of that is due to him, you know, only playing 455 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 2: ten games in the past two seasons. I'm not banking 456 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 2: on him missing a ton of time this year. I'm 457 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 2: not gonna lie. I think he's a bounce back candidate. 458 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 2: I don't think he's injury prone, but that's always an 459 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:17,119 Speaker 2: out right. We already mentioned that, Like injury risk is 460 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,040 Speaker 2: part of, you know, the reason we do like unders 461 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,160 Speaker 2: when it comes to season long props. But he only 462 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 2: scored one touchdown in nine nine carries last year. He 463 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 2: had three carries inside the five, and all five of 464 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:32,360 Speaker 2: them or all three of them, he got stuffed, and 465 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 2: he combined for minus two rushing yards. The offensive line 466 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:38,440 Speaker 2: is partly to blame for that. It's still going to 467 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,719 Speaker 2: be brutal this year, so you know, He's an elite 468 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 2: passing catching back, so I don't think they're going to 469 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 2: spell him on passing downs. I think one area they 470 00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:50,160 Speaker 2: could spell him with newly signed Deontay Foreman is short 471 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 2: yard situations, potentially goal line situation. So well, McCaffrey's probably 472 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 2: going to rack up a handful of receiving touchdowns. I 473 00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 2: think that's going to cap his upside in the rushing 474 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,200 Speaker 2: touch on department. So I'm projecting him closer to seven 475 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 2: rushing touchdown. So I love the value we're getting here 476 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 2: on under eight and a half. 477 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:10,679 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's one of those things where it's like, 478 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:12,919 Speaker 3: you know, he's done this what you say once in 479 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:14,160 Speaker 3: five years, I mean. 480 00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 2: Smash the theory he did he had what fifteen. 481 00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:19,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, but you know, still I think the numbers too high. 482 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 3: I think that even if you're not projecting him for 483 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 3: a ton of misstime, you know, it's still something that's 484 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 3: like for every running back that's running backs are just 485 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 3: great to take the unders with regardless because you know, 486 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 3: you could see things like the miss games coming to play. 487 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 3: But yeah, he could play a full season and still 488 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 3: not clear this number. You know, if that Panthers offense 489 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,639 Speaker 3: continues to struggle. You know, maybe Baker is not the answer. 490 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:48,199 Speaker 3: So I like that one. For my second, I'll go 491 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 3: with another six and a half, quiet Edwards d Lair 492 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 3: under six and a half. It's a little juice up 493 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 3: at minus one fifty five, but I still like it. 494 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 3: He averages one touchdown every thirty seven and a half 495 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 3: carries for his career, which means he'd need just over 496 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,200 Speaker 3: two hundred and sixty two to get. 497 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 1: To seven touchdowns. 498 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:08,280 Speaker 3: Now, his yardage line at the books for this season 499 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,679 Speaker 3: is only seven hundred and a half, which you know, 500 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 3: if you go by his career average of four point 501 00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,200 Speaker 3: four yards of carry, that equates to about one hundred 502 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,040 Speaker 3: and sixty carries. So that's about a over one hundred 503 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:21,520 Speaker 3: less than he would need to get to seven touchdowns. 504 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 3: I'm projecting him for under six, and he's missed five 505 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 3: games per season. And also, I mean, another thing that's 506 00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:33,200 Speaker 3: worried someome is that they signed Ronald Jones, who probably 507 00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 3: is an upgrade on Daryl Williams at least, you know, 508 00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 3: running the ball and you know, in short yards and 509 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,160 Speaker 3: things like that. And then Jerick McKinnon straight up stole 510 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,720 Speaker 3: his job last year and they McKinnon for a while, 511 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 3: we didn't know, you know what, he resigned, would he not? 512 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 3: But he did, so, Like there's also the possibility of 513 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 3: Jared McKinnon just kind of pulling what he did last 514 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 3: year and playing well, and they you know, they're forced 515 00:24:58,800 --> 00:24:59,640 Speaker 3: to kind of use Edwards. 516 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,119 Speaker 1: Z Lair is part of a three way committee. 517 00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:05,080 Speaker 3: So I think there's just a lot of outs even 518 00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 3: if he misses zero games, which is exactly what I want, 519 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 3: you know, when I'm betting under on touchdowns. Now, I know, 520 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,639 Speaker 3: you know the fact that Tyreek Hill is gone, they 521 00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 3: might get some more rushing touchdowns all around, So that 522 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,720 Speaker 3: does bump it up a little bit. But there's just 523 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:23,720 Speaker 3: no real data anywhere anyway I look at it to 524 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,719 Speaker 3: suggest that he would he's gonna have a you know, 525 00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:29,880 Speaker 3: get to fifth to seven half the time. 526 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,439 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, he's been such a huge disappointment, especially 527 00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:35,960 Speaker 2: after who's a Damian Williams is putting up like RB 528 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,920 Speaker 2: one numbers in this offense. I just thought Clyde Edwards 529 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,359 Speaker 2: Hilaria is gonna be a beast. But yeah, he's been disappointing. 530 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,160 Speaker 2: The one concern I would have is, I guess ryl 531 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 2: Jones is a potential cut candidate. Yeh. As of right now, 532 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:52,920 Speaker 2: I'm projecting THCH for close are in a five rushing touchdowns. 533 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,879 Speaker 2: But if Jones is off the team and it's just 534 00:25:55,960 --> 00:26:00,240 Speaker 2: McKinnon and Isaiah Pacheco, who's a you know, so a 535 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,320 Speaker 2: pass catching back, and Michael Burton, I mean I might 536 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,159 Speaker 2: bump cch Culser to six and now rushing touchdowns. But 537 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 2: like you said, there are a lot of outs on 538 00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:11,320 Speaker 2: the under here, so I still like it, but I 539 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,480 Speaker 2: would just watch out for Roul Jones news. 540 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:14,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good point. 541 00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 3: I mean they've always kind of had that other, you know, 542 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:20,720 Speaker 3: like bigger back in the in the offense. So even 543 00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 3: if they cut Jones, I wonder if they would just 544 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:24,240 Speaker 3: sign somebody else at that point. 545 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:28,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, Like Darrel Williams last year had what fourteen rush 546 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:32,200 Speaker 2: attempts inside the five. Thch only had three, So clearly 547 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,120 Speaker 2: they don't like usingch in that role. 548 00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 1: Yeah. 549 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:36,920 Speaker 3: I mean remember I think it was that first week 550 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 3: of the it was early on in his rookie year. 551 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,840 Speaker 1: I think he had he got stuffed like, yeah seven times, 552 00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,560 Speaker 1: so and that was that. Yeah, it's never it's always 553 00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,120 Speaker 1: been kind of a struggle for Cech. So, like I said, 554 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:48,720 Speaker 1: he's just a guy. 555 00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:51,120 Speaker 3: Even if he plays, even if Jones isn't on the team, 556 00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:51,760 Speaker 3: I wouldn't. 557 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:52,120 Speaker 2: I would. 558 00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:53,600 Speaker 3: I would think there'd be a bunch outs, but I 559 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 3: would wait just because there is some juice on it. 560 00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, so you needed to hit closer to the sixty percent. 561 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:00,120 Speaker 1: All right, we're going for your. 562 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,399 Speaker 2: First receiver prop. So I'm going with keenan Ellen under 563 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:07,520 Speaker 2: seven and a half receiving touchdowns. He's only proved this 564 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 2: twice in his illustrious nine year career. Now he's still 565 00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,200 Speaker 2: a very you know, he's an elite route runner, he's 566 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:20,600 Speaker 2: a possession receiver. He's Justin Herbert's favorite target inside the 567 00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:24,399 Speaker 2: twenties or between the twenties, but he's never been a 568 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 2: real red zone threat. And especially when we get closer 569 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,480 Speaker 2: to the goal line, you know Herbert's gonna be targeting 570 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,440 Speaker 2: Austin Eckler, Mike Williams. He loves targeting the tight end. 571 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 2: So this year that'll be Gerald Everett, possibly you know, 572 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:39,280 Speaker 2: Donald Parham, especially closer to the end zone. So I 573 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:40,879 Speaker 2: think we'll see the same old ke and l And 574 00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 2: you know, you know, twelve hundred receiving yards and six 575 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,240 Speaker 2: touchdowns again this year. But he's on the wrong side 576 00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:47,880 Speaker 2: of thirty, so we are going to start to see 577 00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:50,560 Speaker 2: a decline. You can never bank on him to score 578 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 2: a long touchdown either, So love him like I'm projecting 579 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,720 Speaker 2: him in this six six and a half range. I 580 00:27:57,720 --> 00:27:59,920 Speaker 2: don't think he has a high ceiling in this department. 581 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,280 Speaker 2: So love the value we're getting on the under seven 582 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,200 Speaker 2: and a half receiving touchdowns. 583 00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 1: It'd be cool if you could bet exact I've mearber 584 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,320 Speaker 1: six in five years. 585 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, they would probably offer it like seven to one odds, 586 00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:14,639 Speaker 2: but you know it's a fifty to fifty chance it 587 00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:15,960 Speaker 2: will either six or seven. 588 00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:16,720 Speaker 1: It's happening. 589 00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:23,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, keenan A is not a touchdown guy, So yeah, 590 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 3: eight with eight seems a little high even for him. 591 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,920 Speaker 3: He's a guy, like you said, twelve hundred six touchdowns, 592 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:29,640 Speaker 3: that's what he does. 593 00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:31,359 Speaker 2: For me. 594 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,800 Speaker 3: I'm going with Freyman burks under seven hundred and ninety 595 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 3: five and a half for steving yards at minus one fifteen. 596 00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 1: This is this just seems high. 597 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 3: Like I know everyone's you know, looking at him as 598 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:48,080 Speaker 3: the AJ Brown replacement, and so I know AJ Brown 599 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 3: had a surprisingly, you know relative, So I think the 600 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:56,240 Speaker 3: expectation amazing rookie year, and so you know, I think 601 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,000 Speaker 3: people are saying, Okay, Treymon can come, you know, some 602 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 3: of the way there, he'd get over this number. But 603 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 3: I just don't like the way it's starting out for him. 604 00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 3: You know, he's fallen behind in camp. He's struggled with 605 00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:10,360 Speaker 3: the asthma issues. They're just talking could be the number 606 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:15,400 Speaker 3: three receiver behind Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook Aquina. And 607 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,600 Speaker 3: even if you think, you know, Burks is just your 608 00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 3: you know, solid round one. You know, on an average 609 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:26,600 Speaker 3: round row receiver over the last ten years, just fourteen 610 00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:30,920 Speaker 3: of the forty wide receivers drafted in round one have 611 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:35,000 Speaker 3: cleared this prop numbers. So that's just thirty five percent. 612 00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:37,880 Speaker 3: That is, you know, that puts the odds way in 613 00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:39,880 Speaker 3: your favor. And this one's not even juiced up, you know, 614 00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 3: beyond the normal juice for props. And I think Woods 615 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:45,880 Speaker 3: is going to be healthy enough to go and be 616 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,480 Speaker 3: the that top receiver from day one. And you know 617 00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 3: they should have more than whatever it was, you know, 618 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:52,680 Speaker 3: half a season of Derrick Henry. So I think they're 619 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:56,040 Speaker 3: going to be super run heavy this year, and I 620 00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 3: don't think Burks is going to be quite as good 621 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,000 Speaker 3: as Aja Brown. I think I think Brown could do. 622 00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,360 Speaker 3: It's just a little bit better and was a little 623 00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 3: bit better, you know, to starting off than Burke. So 624 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 3: I'm gonna go under steven ninety five and a half. 625 00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,000 Speaker 3: I have this under by I think a little bit 626 00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,320 Speaker 3: over one hundred yards. So yeah, I love this one. Yeah, 627 00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,520 Speaker 3: I know, No, I like this one as well. He 628 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:19,480 Speaker 3: did like he had one of the best landing spots 629 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,680 Speaker 3: in the draft. He kind of reminded me of AJ 630 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,800 Speaker 3: Brown before the draft, and the fact that they traded away 631 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 3: AJ Brown then drafted him to basically fill that role 632 00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,880 Speaker 3: was good news for him. But he does have a 633 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,480 Speaker 3: wide range of outcomes, So that's what I was saying earlier. 634 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:36,280 Speaker 3: You know, whenever somebody has a wider range of outcomes 635 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,960 Speaker 3: usually helped the under here. And he's had a rough 636 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:43,640 Speaker 3: mini cap conditioning issues. I know he has asthma. 637 00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,960 Speaker 2: So I think that people are just you know, over 638 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 2: projecting him right now because, like you said, Robert Woods 639 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,200 Speaker 2: will probably be the number one target. I think Austin 640 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 2: Hooper is having a solid connection with Ryan Tannhill. That's 641 00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,120 Speaker 2: at least what the earlier ports are saying. So, and 642 00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 2: this is still a run heavy offense, so I love 643 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,400 Speaker 2: of the numerous outs we get on the under if 644 00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:05,040 Speaker 2: he kind of flops as a rookie, He's very talented. 645 00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:08,280 Speaker 2: But this projection is a bit too high. I'm with you, though, 646 00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,520 Speaker 2: this is about one hundred yards higher than when I'm 647 00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,840 Speaker 2: currently projecting him at all. Right, what about your second 648 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:16,320 Speaker 2: So I'm shooting for the moon on this one. I'm 649 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,920 Speaker 2: going with Terry McLaurin to have the most receiving yards 650 00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:24,840 Speaker 2: this year at fifty to one odds, and I hate 651 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:28,320 Speaker 2: that I'm like standing for Carson Wentz, but he is 652 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:32,360 Speaker 2: certainly an upgrade compared to what Terry mccaorn has been 653 00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,800 Speaker 2: dealing with his entire career. I mean, I'm not going 654 00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:37,920 Speaker 2: to go through the carousel of shitty quarterbacks that he's 655 00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 2: had throwing the ball. So while Carson Wentz I wouldn't 656 00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:44,840 Speaker 2: consider him above average, he's closer to average than these 657 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:48,160 Speaker 2: other guys. And last year Carson Wentz was very good 658 00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:52,200 Speaker 2: throwing the ball downfield. On his past attempts that where 659 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 2: the ball traveled at least twenty yards, he was third 660 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,480 Speaker 2: in QB rating, and he had the fourth highest catch 661 00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:00,840 Speaker 2: BAW target rate at seventy six percent. Meanwhile, you know 662 00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 2: Terry McLaurin, he is a downfield threat. He had the 663 00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:07,280 Speaker 2: fourth most targets twenty plus yards downfield, and he only 664 00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,640 Speaker 2: saw fourteen of his twenty one targets were catchable. That's 665 00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 2: forty eight percent. So if Wentz and mcclurn or to 666 00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,240 Speaker 2: connect on you know, more deep balls next year, I 667 00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:20,200 Speaker 2: think it's going to help for this market. Plus, Terry 668 00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:23,400 Speaker 2: doesn't have that much competition for targets. They're still Curtis 669 00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:27,080 Speaker 2: Samuel oh Man if he's healthy, you know, might soak 670 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,720 Speaker 2: up some targets, but that's a big if. Jahan Dotson 671 00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 2: is going to be rookie so and Logan Thomas might 672 00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,160 Speaker 2: not be ready for week one. So I think Terry 673 00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,920 Speaker 2: can dominate in target share here, which is what you 674 00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,080 Speaker 2: want in a market like this. And if you just 675 00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:42,960 Speaker 2: look at like where the guys are ranked, he's twenty 676 00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 2: third among receivers. I'm not sure where you haven't projected 677 00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 2: and receiving yards, but he ranks thirteenth if you sort 678 00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:51,840 Speaker 2: by receivers. So I think we're getting some solid value 679 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:53,400 Speaker 2: here at fifty to one. 680 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the odds. You know, I have my 681 00:32:56,680 --> 00:33:00,760 Speaker 3: reservations about Carson Wentz. Yeah, they kind of you know, 682 00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,520 Speaker 3: force it to Michael Pittman, their number one receiver yep, 683 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,600 Speaker 3: last year. So I think it depends on a few things, 684 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:09,080 Speaker 3: you know. I think Dodson could be the pleasant surprise. 685 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:09,520 Speaker 1: I don't. 686 00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:11,280 Speaker 3: I don't think Sam would be much of a factor, 687 00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:15,320 Speaker 3: to be honest, I just I just don't think he's together. 688 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,440 Speaker 1: But yeah, no, I fifty to one. 689 00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:20,440 Speaker 3: I mean for a guy who's talented, could run routes, 690 00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:25,240 Speaker 3: can catch contested passes, goes downfield, is should be clear 691 00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:27,640 Speaker 3: in a way like the number one target, regardless of 692 00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:29,480 Speaker 3: what's going on behind him. 693 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:30,840 Speaker 1: I think there's definitely a better chance. 694 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:31,280 Speaker 3: Yeah. 695 00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,680 Speaker 2: One real quick thing I forgot to mention is like 696 00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:36,760 Speaker 2: the guys that would typically be you know, really solid 697 00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:40,240 Speaker 2: a market like this, Tyree Kill, DeVante Adams, AJ Brown 698 00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:43,760 Speaker 2: all changed teams and I'm you know, we're all downgrading them. 699 00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:48,560 Speaker 2: DeAndre Hopkins is suspended the first six games. DK Metcalf 700 00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:51,320 Speaker 2: now has Gino Smith and or Drew Locke throwing to him. 701 00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,920 Speaker 2: So a lot of these top guys have reasons not 702 00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,040 Speaker 2: to like him this year, So it's just sort of 703 00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:58,760 Speaker 2: a mixed bag. We're outside of Cooper Cup and Justin Jefferson, 704 00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:04,000 Speaker 2: I think it's wide open. Yeah, absolutely like it. 705 00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 3: And mccari is one of those guys like it's like 706 00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,080 Speaker 3: that year Allan Robinson led the league in targets or 707 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:10,799 Speaker 3: whatever it was a couple of years ago. It's like, 708 00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,399 Speaker 3: he's one of those guys that you could he could 709 00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:14,840 Speaker 3: lead the league in targets, and if you lead the 710 00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:16,879 Speaker 3: league of targets, you always have. 711 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,320 Speaker 1: A chance in these markets. So yeah, I like that one. 712 00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:23,560 Speaker 3: For my second one, I'm gonna go and this this 713 00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:25,320 Speaker 3: is how we do it here. But I'm going to 714 00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:28,400 Speaker 3: go against one of my favorite players, one of the 715 00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:31,720 Speaker 3: best players at the position, at the wide receiver position. 716 00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,160 Speaker 3: I'm going under Jamar Chase under eleven and a half 717 00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:39,399 Speaker 3: receiving touchdowns at minus one fifteen. And the reason being 718 00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:45,960 Speaker 3: is twelve receiving touchdowns is just a massive, massive number. Obviously, 719 00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,000 Speaker 3: any type of injury, even one or two miss games 720 00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:53,200 Speaker 3: could could potentially be the difference here. But you look 721 00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:54,759 Speaker 3: at what Chase did last year when he went he 722 00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:56,879 Speaker 3: got thirteen, So I understand why the line is where 723 00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:59,879 Speaker 3: it is he had thirteen last year. I looked at, 724 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,400 Speaker 3: you know, rookie wide receivers with thirteen or more touchdowns 725 00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:07,960 Speaker 3: in year one, and there's only been three other receivers 726 00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,239 Speaker 3: that have done it. Their average in year two is 727 00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,080 Speaker 3: just eight and a half. None of the three got 728 00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:16,279 Speaker 3: to twelve, not even Randy Moss, who played an entire 729 00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:20,960 Speaker 3: sixteen game season, didn't miss a game, did not get 730 00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:24,000 Speaker 3: to bat, you know, back to over this number a 731 00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:24,399 Speaker 3: year two. 732 00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:26,560 Speaker 1: So I'm projecting him just over nine. 733 00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:31,919 Speaker 3: You know, I think twelve twelve touchdowns is just it's 734 00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:32,920 Speaker 3: just a lot. 735 00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:35,040 Speaker 1: It's a lot, and I think you're gonna win these. 736 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,520 Speaker 3: It's uncomfortable, but I think you're gonna win these kind 737 00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,359 Speaker 3: of ones more often than not because most people just 738 00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:45,440 Speaker 3: don't have the stones to bet Jamar Chase under eleven 739 00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:47,520 Speaker 3: and a half, especially after he went for thirteen a 740 00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:47,960 Speaker 3: year one. 741 00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,959 Speaker 1: But I think this number is two to three too high. 742 00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:54,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, obviously we realized his ceiling is elite 743 00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:58,080 Speaker 2: to understate it going in the season, but I mean 744 00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:00,000 Speaker 2: I'm projecting him for ten and a half and that's 745 00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:04,440 Speaker 2: with a twelve point six percent touchdown rate. So that's 746 00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:06,719 Speaker 2: that's super high, And this is one of those things where, yeah, 747 00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,120 Speaker 2: the value is probably on the under if for some 748 00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:12,400 Speaker 2: reason you wanted to bet the over. If he clears this, 749 00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:15,000 Speaker 2: he's already going to be in contention for the most 750 00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:19,239 Speaker 2: receiving touchdowns in for this season, and he's five to 751 00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:22,080 Speaker 2: one in that market. So instead of betting on just 752 00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:25,080 Speaker 2: you know, over eleven and a half, I would say, 753 00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:28,640 Speaker 2: go check out the most receiving touchdowns market where he's 754 00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,120 Speaker 2: five to one, because that he has such a high 755 00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:33,920 Speaker 2: total where that's that's almost where the league leader will be, 756 00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:36,720 Speaker 2: so that that would be one possible way to hedge 757 00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:39,480 Speaker 2: it if you're nervous has bet the under here and 758 00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:42,080 Speaker 2: then the over on the most receiving yards. But either way, 759 00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,600 Speaker 2: like when it comes to markets like this, like you said, 760 00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:46,560 Speaker 2: there's there's a ton of outs on the under here. 761 00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:49,600 Speaker 2: T Higgins can go off this year. You know, I 762 00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:51,640 Speaker 2: do like Joe Mixon, like I think he has a 763 00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,640 Speaker 2: huge touchdown selling as well. So even though we do 764 00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:57,000 Speaker 2: like Jamar Chase, eleven and a half, is this an 765 00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:58,120 Speaker 2: insanely high number? 766 00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:00,239 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean to put it in perspective and other 767 00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:03,920 Speaker 3: super talent or receiver like Justin Jefferson one hundred and 768 00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:07,440 Speaker 3: sixty seven targets one six hundred and sixteen yards last year, 769 00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 3: and he got ten touchdowns. 770 00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:09,840 Speaker 1: You know, it's it's it's. 771 00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:12,480 Speaker 3: Really hard to start getting up all into those double 772 00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:15,120 Speaker 3: digits and not even just double digits, but you know twelve, 773 00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:17,719 Speaker 3: So you know, these are the kind of bets that 774 00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:19,960 Speaker 3: you that you want to make if you're gonna consistently 775 00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:20,640 Speaker 3: hit these things. 776 00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:22,840 Speaker 1: So Chase under eleven and a half. 777 00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:27,759 Speaker 3: Let me just recap all twelve of the props that 778 00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:32,959 Speaker 3: we gave out. Sean likes Baker Mayfield under thirty eight 779 00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:36,640 Speaker 3: one hundred and a half passing yards and Davis Mills 780 00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:40,319 Speaker 3: most interceptions thrown at ten to one. For quarterbacks, I 781 00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,160 Speaker 3: like Mayfield under twenty two and a half passing touchdowns 782 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:48,120 Speaker 3: and Lamar Jackson under six and a half rushing touchdowns. 783 00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:52,759 Speaker 3: For the running backs, Sean likes Elijah Mitchell under seven 784 00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:56,560 Speaker 3: and a half rushing touchdowns and Christian McCaffrey under eight 785 00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:59,680 Speaker 3: and a half rushing touchdowns. I like Miles Sanders under 786 00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:02,319 Speaker 3: six and a half rushing touchdowns and Clyde Edwards Laire 787 00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:04,839 Speaker 3: under six and a half rushing touchdowns. 788 00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:06,319 Speaker 1: And then for the receivers. 789 00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:12,520 Speaker 3: Sean likes Keenan Allen under seven and a half receiving touchdowns, 790 00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:16,640 Speaker 3: Terry McLaurin most receiving yards. 791 00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:19,360 Speaker 1: In the league at fifty to one. Pretty juicy. 792 00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:22,799 Speaker 3: I like Traylon Burks under seven hundred and ninety five 793 00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:27,240 Speaker 3: and a half receiving yards, and Jamar Chase under eleven 794 00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,440 Speaker 3: and a half receiving touchdowns. 795 00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:33,040 Speaker 1: We'll be back to do this sometime at the end 796 00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:33,399 Speaker 1: of the year. 797 00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:36,440 Speaker 3: Obviously, we'll have our normal episodes for the rest of 798 00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:40,359 Speaker 3: the preseason starting to ramp up here, all right, that's 799 00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:43,960 Speaker 3: gonna do it. Can find Sean on Twitter at the 800 00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:45,040 Speaker 3: Underscore Odds Maker. 801 00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:46,320 Speaker 1: You can find me at Chris Raybond. 802 00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:48,680 Speaker 3: You can find us at those same handles on the 803 00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:53,480 Speaker 3: free award winning Action Network app. Until next time, let's 804 00:38:53,480 --> 00:39:01,120 Speaker 3: get fish money.