1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:13,119 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 3 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:16,160 Speaker 2: top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors 4 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 2: all around the world. Straight Ahead on the program, a 5 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:21,760 Speaker 2: look at earnings from the biggest banks on Wall Street. 6 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:24,440 Speaker 2: What they'll tell us about the health of the US economy. 7 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. 8 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 3: I'm Caroline Hetkin. We away considering how climate change is 9 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 3: hitting Europe the hottest. 10 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 2: Plus this week's fresh record for Goal. What's ahead for 11 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 2: everyone's favorite metal in the final months of the year. 12 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: That's all straight Ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 13 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:46,480 Speaker 1: eleventh three year, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 14 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg ninety two nine, Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, Serrius 15 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: XM one T one, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio, 16 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 1: dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. 17 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 2: Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager, and we begin 18 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:09,400 Speaker 2: today's program with earnings from the biggest banks on Wall Street. 19 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 2: JP Morgan, Chase, Goldman, Sachs, City Group and Wells Fargo 20 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 2: kickoff big bank earning season with Bank of America and 21 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley not too far behind. For more of what 22 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 2: to expect, we're joined by Alison Williams, Senior analyst for 23 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 2: Global Banks and Asset Managers at Bloomberg Intelligence. Allison, thanks 24 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 2: for being with us. Let's just get into it what 25 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 2: to expect, especially now that we've heard some comments from 26 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 2: JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond himself. What are you 27 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 2: looking for from the big banks? 28 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 4: Thanks for having me. Three key things that we're looking 29 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 4: for for the big banks this week. First, the strength 30 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 4: of markets is going to translate into further revenue and 31 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 4: profit momentum, both for the third quarter and the outlook. 32 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 4: We expect this could be a record year for capital 33 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 4: markets revenue and that benefits all of the banks, especially Goldman, 34 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 4: Sachs and Morgan Stanley, but JP Morgan the leader in 35 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 4: absolute revenue. Second, we have the out of tail wind 36 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 4: of improving coordinate interest income as RAY expectations are moving lower, 37 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 4: while loan growth and in particular commercial loan growth is 38 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 4: picking up. Third, credit remains solid and we will see 39 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 4: some provisioning We expect for normalization and loan growth, but 40 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 4: not much change to economic assumptions underlying reserves. So based 41 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 4: on these three core trends, putting them together, we think 42 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 4: their earnings could beat with upward revisions to estimates for 43 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 4: twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six. We are seeing 44 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 4: some estimate increases for the quarter, some positive revisions going 45 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 4: into results, but notably when it comes to trading, which 46 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 4: we think is going to be very strong. Analyst estimates 47 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 4: do tend to be conservative, so we think there is 48 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 4: room for upside there. 49 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 2: Are you looking for any big shifts in market share 50 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,399 Speaker 2: when it comes to trading, because it seems like all 51 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 2: of these banks are really good going after each other 52 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 2: on that front, and we have seen this torrid rally 53 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 2: in the stock market from the April low. 54 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:10,639 Speaker 4: We do think that the big are going to continue 55 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 4: to get bigger. So the ship that we've seen over 56 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 4: time is that, you know, banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, 57 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 4: and JP Morgan have gained share. We've also seen Bank 58 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 4: America and City Group gain over the very long term. 59 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 4: But we think that this is going to be a 60 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 4: quarter where we see outperformance, especially in the equity trading 61 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 4: business from Goldman Sachs, who is the leader in that business, 62 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 4: and absolute revenue Goldman is also the leader in M 63 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:41,960 Speaker 4: and A and we also expect them to have a 64 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 4: quarter in that business. One of the key businesses that 65 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 4: that has been helping the banks is prime brokerage and 66 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 4: some of the larger hedge funds and the asset levels. 67 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 4: You know, when we look at some of the largest 68 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 4: hedge funds and we look at things like record equity 69 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 4: prices around the globe, we do think that there's going 70 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 4: to be some help to that business. We also saw 71 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 4: record trading volume. You know, when we look at the 72 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 4: underlying trends to trading, the equities trading business should be 73 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 4: supported by continued strength and prime brokerage we saw some 74 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 4: record balances last quarter. We think we're going to see 75 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 4: new records this quarter. We also saw a record in 76 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:30,359 Speaker 4: US exchange trading volume, so that's a big business for 77 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:32,839 Speaker 4: the banks. But we're also going to see strength on 78 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 4: the fixed income side of things, both within rates and 79 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 4: spread trading. So really broad based strength at the banks 80 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 4: and we think that that's really going to help all 81 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 4: the competitors. 82 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 2: And what are you looking for when it comes to 83 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:51,479 Speaker 2: commentary from these banks on the resilience of the consumer. 84 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 2: That has been the driver for this economy, even when 85 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,719 Speaker 2: we're starting to see, you know, cracks in the labor market. 86 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 2: When you think about banks like Bank of America and 87 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 2: City Group that have more of a focus on households, 88 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:06,839 Speaker 2: what could they tell us when it comes to credit quality. 89 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 4: To your point, we always do get an eye into 90 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:14,280 Speaker 4: the consumer for these banks. The one interesting thing that 91 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:18,279 Speaker 4: we're seeing at the industry level is the commercial side 92 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 4: of low growth picking up. It really has been the 93 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 4: credit card business that's been driving growth, especially at these 94 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 4: large banks in recent years. But we are seeing a 95 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 4: little bit of a shift to that on the commercial side, 96 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 4: and we do think that that's healthy on the credit 97 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 4: quality side of things. As I said, I do think 98 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 4: that we see some normalization, but we don't expect to 99 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 4: see big changes in economic assumption. So we think that 100 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 4: the reserve building should be relatively modest. 101 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 2: And when it comes to banks with a sort of 102 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:56,239 Speaker 2: a big wealth management focus, I'm thinking of Morgan, Stanley, Goldman, Sachs, 103 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 2: those kind of firms. Is the bar high for them? 104 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 4: The bar is high, but we think that they are 105 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 4: going to deliver on that bar because, as I mentioned, 106 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 4: we've seen global equity prices and global equity market capitalization 107 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 4: hit a new record towards the end of September. We've 108 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 4: seen new highs already in this fourth quarter, and that 109 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 4: is very good for wealth and banking fees, both for 110 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,600 Speaker 4: the third quarter and the outlook going into this quarter. 111 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 2: All right, well, we'll see as that big bank earning 112 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 2: season kicks off early next week. That's Alison Williams with 113 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 2: US senior analysts for global banks and asset managers at 114 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence. Alison, thank you. We move next to earnings 115 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 2: from some of the regional banks, Citizens Financial, First, Horizon, 116 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 2: PNC Financial Services. They're among the flood of lenders opening 117 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 2: their books this week. Let's bring in Herman Chan to 118 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 2: preview those results. Herman's a senior analyst for US regional 119 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 2: banks at Bloomberg Intelligence. These banks have been in the 120 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 2: spotlight Herman. Of course, these results are coming off the 121 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:06,040 Speaker 2: heels of the fifth Third Bank deal for Co America 122 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 2: that we all remember so much about. So should we 123 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 2: be looking for more consolidation chatter when the banks report 124 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:12,239 Speaker 2: this week? 125 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 5: I think that's going to be the top question within 126 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 5: the annas community is which banks are going to be 127 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 5: acquisitive and which banks potentially are you thinking about selling themselves. 128 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 5: We've seen, as you mentioned, the Fifth Third co America deal, 129 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 5: and that comes on the heels of P and C 130 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 5: buying a bank in Colorado, Club First Bank, which really 131 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 5: boosts their Denver presence, and also Huntington, which is an 132 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 5: Ohio based lender that's going into Texas with It's a 133 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 5: very text deal. So there is definitely some consolidation that's 134 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 5: brewing and we'd expect that continue going forward. 135 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 2: And of course Fifth Third and co America are both 136 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 2: going to be among those banks opening their books. What 137 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 2: are you expecting specifically from those results? 138 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, so Fifth Third specifically has talked about some strong 139 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 5: lending trend, so that's great to see, and we'd expect 140 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 5: some further improvement in their top line. What was the 141 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 5: surprise for a lot of the investment community is that 142 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 5: Fifth Third mentioned that they are ensineered in this Tricolor bankruptcy, 143 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 5: so that's going to create a fairly large credit loss 144 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 5: for them, which will hit the third quarter numbers. We 145 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 5: view that as more of a one off issue that 146 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 5: shouldn't reverberate throughout the entire loan book and throughout the industry, 147 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 5: but it is something that will affect their their three 148 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 5: key reporting. In terms of America, co America has been 149 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 5: one of the banks that has taken a bit longer 150 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 5: to recover from the SVB issues a couple of years back, 151 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 5: and so they're they're along the way of trying to 152 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 5: shore up their balance sheet in terms of their deposits 153 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 5: and deposit repricing and growing loans, but that'll be more 154 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 5: steady or going forward, and get the fact that they're 155 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 5: going to do this deal for fifth third, I think 156 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 5: that's going to be less of a priority for a 157 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 5: lot of the analysts and investors. 158 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 2: Are there some other banks reporting this week that could 159 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 2: be in a similar situation as co America and potentially 160 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 2: be acquisition targets themselves. 161 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a good question. That's one of the things 162 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 5: that we'll try to suss out. There are banks that 163 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 5: in our coverage that we think are probably better buyers 164 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 5: than sellers at this point. So banks like Regents, which 165 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 5: operates in the Southeast and has a really strong valuation 166 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:38,200 Speaker 5: multiple that has the currency to really do deals. Another 167 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 5: bank based in Buffalo, New York, M and T Bank 168 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 5: also has a track record of doing deals and has 169 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 5: a strong currency to do deals. So those are the 170 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:50,440 Speaker 5: ones that I think the market's going to focus on 171 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 5: in terms of they're going to be the next to 172 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:55,439 Speaker 5: potentially be inquisitive. 173 00:09:56,000 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 2: You mentioned one earlier, PNC Financial talking about their expansion 174 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:03,559 Speaker 2: plans in the Southwest in particular. Do you expect that 175 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 2: to show up in the results and bolster the balance sheet? 176 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 5: At this point, that deal needs to be closed, But 177 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 5: I think the next question for P and C in 178 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 5: particular is what's next for them. They've been vocal about 179 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 5: potentially doubling their balance sheet to over a trillion dollars 180 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 5: in assets, and this deal, while helpful, it's not going 181 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 5: to get them there anytime soon. So there's going to 182 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:32,679 Speaker 5: be some organic growth, but really there's going to be 183 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 5: more consolidation over the next several years. Where do they 184 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 5: go next. They've done the deal with First Bank, They've 185 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 5: acquired BBVA USA, which really is the jump start for 186 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 5: their south West and Sunbelt expansion into California as well, 187 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 5: and now what's a coast to coast lenders? So where 188 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:54,599 Speaker 5: do they grow from here? That's going to be the 189 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 5: next question. 190 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 2: Interesting Now, one other big I mentioned earlier has been 191 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 2: coming off its own deals as well. What are you 192 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 2: looking for from Citizens? Yeah. 193 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 5: Citizens has done a string of deals over the past 194 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 5: few years. They really filled in their market footprint which 195 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 5: was missing in the New York City metro area with 196 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 5: Investors Bank Corp. And New Jersey and then they acquired 197 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 5: the branches from HSBC in the New York City metro area, 198 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:29,559 Speaker 5: so that really fills out there their traditional Northeast New 199 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:34,839 Speaker 5: England footprint with the mid Atlantic footprint. So they're comfortably 200 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 5: at Wisconsin the northeast. And do they expand more outside 201 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 5: where a lot of the its large competitors have moved 202 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,959 Speaker 5: into the southeast as well, So that's going to be 203 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:48,079 Speaker 5: a top of mind and a good question for them. 204 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:52,839 Speaker 5: There's some scuttle but in the investor community if Citizens 205 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 5: is going to be a seller or a buyer. So 206 00:11:55,440 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 5: that's an ongoing question, particularly as larger banks try to 207 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 5: get bigger to compete with the likes of jpmworking and 208 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 5: ba AA. 209 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:07,680 Speaker 2: All right, well, looking forward to regional bank earning season. 210 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 2: Thank you for this, Herman, Thank you. That's Herman Chan, 211 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 2: senior analyst for US regional banks at Bloomberg Intelligence. Coming 212 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,199 Speaker 2: up on Bloomberg Day Break weekend, we look at how 213 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 2: climate change is hitting Europe the hardest. I'm Nathan Hager, 214 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 2: and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak WEEKND our 215 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 2: global look ahead at the top stories for investors in 216 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 2: the coming week. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. Up later 217 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 2: in our program after a fresh record for gold, what's 218 00:12:44,640 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 2: ahead for bullion heading into November. But first in the 219 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 2: coming days, global climate bankers, forecasters, and government ministers will 220 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:55,000 Speaker 2: gather in London for the annual New Energy Finance Summit. 221 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 2: The number of extreme weather events keeps rising and the 222 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:02,079 Speaker 2: economic damage they cause going up too. With the US 223 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 2: pushing the EU to stop buying Russian gas and to 224 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 2: cut back on green regulation, many are asking if the 225 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 2: continent's green plans for the future are still intact for more, 226 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:14,959 Speaker 2: let's go to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe 227 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 2: anker Caroline Hepger. 228 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:21,199 Speaker 3: Nathan, Europe is getting hotter two point four degrees celsius 229 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:24,319 Speaker 3: hotter than before the Industrial Revolution. That's four and a 230 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 3: half degrees fahrenheit For our US listeners. That means the 231 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 3: continent is warming faster than any other region on Earth, 232 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 3: which in turn is disrupting the continent's weather. It's also 233 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:40,200 Speaker 3: getting harder to predict when power grids need more energy 234 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 3: to cope. That hasn't stopped some European politicians from calling 235 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 3: for the rollback of green pledges as they grapple with 236 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 3: high costs of living. Greg Jackson is chief executive officer 237 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 3: of the UK's largest energy retailer, Octopus Energy. He told 238 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 3: us that's a knock on effect of the shift in America. 239 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 6: You can't ignore what happened in the US. You know, 240 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:08,400 Speaker 6: you went from an administration that passed the ira you know, 241 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 6: one of the biggest commitments to government support for a 242 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 6: specific set of industries in history world changing to an 243 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 6: administration that use the phrase drill, baby, drill. I think 244 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 6: that has really set the tone in a bunch of 245 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 6: European countries, including the UK, where there is now an 246 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,040 Speaker 6: intense debate about our future of energy. 247 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 3: That was October's Energy CEO Greg Jackson there on this 248 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 3: week's Zero podcast, So what does the future of power 249 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 3: look like? Well, in the next few days, the European 250 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 3: Union's Energy Commissioner and Portugal's Energy Minister will be joining 251 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 3: executives right here in London for the annual BNF summit. 252 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 3: Joining me now as Ben Vickers, who is our chief 253 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 3: editor of Bloomberg NEF, and Joe Wurtz, our weather and 254 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 3: climate reporter here in London. Welcome to both the Joe, 255 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 3: can I start with you? Firstly? We're thinking about climate change. 256 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 3: Summers in Europe have seen record breaking heat waves with 257 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 3: really serious consequences. I wonder when you think about your work, 258 00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 3: your job as a weather and climate reporter, how has 259 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:17,360 Speaker 3: that changed? 260 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:19,680 Speaker 7: Well, I mean isn't that the joke right that the 261 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 7: weather is always always changing? You know, my job has 262 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 7: changed quite a bit, you know really as I started 263 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 7: as a climate and environment reporter, and increasingly that became 264 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 7: more and more about extreme weather. And you know, extreme 265 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 7: weather really shapes how people, businesses, you know, power, energy 266 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 7: move across the world. It dictates trade, economy and people's lives, 267 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 7: and that's increasingly you know, the story that that we're 268 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 7: focusing on. 269 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 3: Ben, how are Bloomberg's n EF teams looking at this 270 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 3: changing world? The impact of climate change are kind of 271 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 3: big big thought? 272 00:15:58,080 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 8: Yeah, I was going to say, that's a very very 273 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 8: big question. So, I mean, basically, what we do. We're 274 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 8: a data supplier and we do analysis on the back 275 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 8: of that, and we're looking at the shift in the 276 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 8: economy's worldwide to basically a lower carbon economy for everyone. Now, 277 00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:16,280 Speaker 8: climate adaptation and climate risk have come to the fall, 278 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 8: So we're adding new areas of research to help companies 279 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 8: and policymakers sort of navigate not just the climate risk 280 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 8: and the need for climate adaptation, but also how to 281 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 8: keep businesses going, keep them profitable as we go down 282 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 8: the roots, energy transition. 283 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 3: Really energy transition. 284 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 8: Yeah, it's very much a changing picture as well. It's 285 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 8: not as bad as the weather, but yeah, the shifting. 286 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:42,680 Speaker 3: Well, thinking about that weather element, Joe. In the winter months, 287 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 3: Europe has had in the past fears that a sudden 288 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 3: cold snap would cause gas prices to spike. This in 289 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 3: amidst all of the other kind of energy challenges that 290 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 3: we have, is there also a similar concern about that 291 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 3: this year? 292 00:16:56,000 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 7: Yes, absolutely, We've already seen an early season snap. We 293 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 7: had had a big one in Eastern Europe already, and 294 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 7: you know, traders and governments are really locked in right now. 295 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 7: This is basically like cold snap hunting season for for 296 00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:13,480 Speaker 7: governments and traders there. Their eyes are on the forecasts, 297 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 7: they're they're they're they're watching for any sign that a 298 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 7: drop in temperatures could really throw off balance the sort 299 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 7: of fragile state of the energy markets right now, you know, 300 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 7: increase competition for for for for gas, and so you know, 301 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,160 Speaker 7: any any any deviation there, any any cold snap can 302 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:32,360 Speaker 7: really raise demand and create ripple effects. 303 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 3: And gas storage has also been an issue. It's been 304 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 3: an issue in the UK and across Europe in past winters. 305 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 3: Is it equally bad this time around? 306 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 7: So you know, UPE did a did a good job 307 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:46,439 Speaker 7: stockpiling gas over the summer. It's still that stockpiling was 308 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:50,080 Speaker 7: below what is is historically the summer you know norm 309 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:54,160 Speaker 7: for stockpiling, but it did beat some expectations for that stockpiling. 310 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:57,720 Speaker 7: So they you know, we started the natural gas winter essentially, 311 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 7: which starts in October. So started that's with about eighty 312 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:04,159 Speaker 7: three percent of the stockpiles four which was better than 313 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 7: a lot of people expected, but still not as good 314 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 7: as it could be. But we've already seen with that 315 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 7: first cold snap we had recently in Eastern Europe that 316 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:17,720 Speaker 7: some European countries are already having to tap into that 317 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 7: gas suppli absolutely. 318 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 3: Now, of course, there have been incidents of blackouts in Europe, 319 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,359 Speaker 3: and I think this is going to be quite crucial 320 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 3: when you speak to Portugal's energy minister, who is speaking 321 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 3: actually at the Bloomberg NEF Summit just in the next 322 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 3: few days. I'm sure there'll be a lot of interest 323 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:38,919 Speaker 3: in understanding what she has to say about how the 324 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 3: country dealt with that blackout. It has been blamed both 325 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:45,920 Speaker 3: on the power grid and also on renewable energy, and Ben, 326 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,400 Speaker 3: you're going to be interviewing her, what are you going 327 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 3: to try to ask and find out. 328 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:52,640 Speaker 8: Well, there's a couple of things. There's obviously the human 329 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 8: side to this, because being energy minister and waking up 330 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:56,959 Speaker 8: more morning with the lights off, not just in your 331 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 8: house or down the street, but across the country. It 332 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 8: is probably a nightmare. So there's that personal experience of 333 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 8: finding yourself in the hot seat. And well, three months 334 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:09,200 Speaker 8: after that April twenty eighth blackout, the minister presented thirty 335 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 8: one measures to basically address all the problems they've been 336 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,680 Speaker 8: able to identify, and some of those obviously within her remit, 337 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:17,400 Speaker 8: those are the ones she's trying to address. But there's 338 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:22,120 Speaker 8: a bigger, bigger issue of interconnections basically between European power markets, 339 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:24,400 Speaker 8: and for a long time Spain and Portugal have been 340 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:28,159 Speaker 8: asking France to improve the connections between those countries, and 341 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 8: there's a sort of a little bit of a tift 342 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 8: between them and allegations that their interests for the nuclear 343 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,439 Speaker 8: power plants were able to sell their power rather than 344 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,439 Speaker 8: allowing solar from Spain to come in really cheaply and 345 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,200 Speaker 8: so on, So there's a little bit of EU negotiation 346 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:41,199 Speaker 8: to go on there as well. But they're investing one 347 00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:44,479 Speaker 8: hundred and thirty seven million in their grid to upgrade 348 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,359 Speaker 8: that they're putting in a couple of new power stations 349 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:49,919 Speaker 8: that are going to light up in January, which are 350 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 8: what they call they call them black start stations, which 351 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 8: is basically when everything goes off, these switch on automatically 352 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:56,640 Speaker 8: and sort of a first line of defense. But there's 353 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 8: actually quite a thirty one of these measures. So we're 354 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 8: going to be talking to her a lot about what 355 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 8: the plans are. 356 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 3: What the plans are on what she's delivering and how 357 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 3: quickly and so on. Yes, I think that will be 358 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:10,160 Speaker 3: really fascinating in terms of though the other major theme 359 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:14,080 Speaker 3: surely is about the backlash against green energy. I mean 360 00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:15,960 Speaker 3: a little bit of that comes through in the discussion 361 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 3: around Portugal and the spending required Joe for climate adaptation. 362 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 3: This is a significant issue in the US. It has 363 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 3: also rippled across Europe. Is it gaining traction in particular 364 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 3: parts of Europe or for particular areas in the energy space. 365 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 7: You know, it really seems to be gaining traction in 366 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 7: all sorts of different corners across Europe. The context here 367 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:43,280 Speaker 7: is that Europe's energy grid energy markets are increasingly renewable 368 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 7: and increasingly rely on the weather. They're dependent on how 369 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 7: much sun is shining, how much wind is blowing, and 370 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 7: also comes with all the you know, international competition for 371 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 7: gas and other factors. Geopolitics can influence the supply side 372 00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 7: of that equation. So you know, increased pressure on all 373 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 7: those markets are definitely, uh, you know, raising the stakes. 374 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 7: And in each of these countries, you know, these ambitious 375 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:12,919 Speaker 7: climate targets that they set up have have really been challenged. 376 00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,159 Speaker 7: You know, last month was supposed to be a big milestone, right, 377 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 7: Europe was supposed to get together and come to this 378 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:20,640 Speaker 7: big agreement, this final agreement on their on their long 379 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 7: term twenty forty targets, and and and they kicked that 380 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 7: can down the road, and and now those countries are 381 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:29,640 Speaker 7: fighting about that. There's more domestic spending demands on each 382 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,919 Speaker 7: of these countries. In some cases, these countries are wanting 383 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 7: to siphon off more money for defense spending and things 384 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 7: like that, and and and and more political uh unease 385 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 7: with some of the ambitious spending targets that go along 386 00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:45,639 Speaker 7: with these these green goals. 387 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 3: And if that wasn't enough, you just have to throw 388 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 3: in artificial intelligence, which we have spent months thinking about, 389 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 3: you know, the big build out of our sovision intelligence 390 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 3: the Energy demand ben that is going to also really 391 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 3: underline some of the difficulties in the energy space. How 392 00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:04,959 Speaker 3: do you think that the impact of AI is going 393 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,920 Speaker 3: to affect your forecast when it comes to power demand? 394 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 3: How are you thinking about this oncoming technology. 395 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 8: So there's a mass of amount of interest in the 396 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,119 Speaker 8: impact that AI is going to have on power demand, 397 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:20,160 Speaker 8: on prices more generally as well for consumers. Yeah, we've 398 00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:23,680 Speaker 8: been looking at what the likely development of AI data 399 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:27,679 Speaker 8: centers basically the hyperscals, but we're looking at out to 400 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:30,920 Speaker 8: twenty thirty five the power demand from data centers. We're 401 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 8: expecting to have quadrupled from where it is right now. 402 00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:35,919 Speaker 8: That's only actually four point four percent of all the 403 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,920 Speaker 8: electricity demand worldwide, So it's a small proportion of the 404 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 8: electricity worldwide, but it's where it happens and when it happens, 405 00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,920 Speaker 8: I suppose, which is really important. Now, if in twenty 406 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 8: thirty five you put all the data centers together, they 407 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,879 Speaker 8: would be and to look at them as if they 408 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,480 Speaker 8: were a country, they would be the fourth largest country 409 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:56,680 Speaker 8: in the world, behind the US, China, India. Then there's 410 00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,719 Speaker 8: data centers that sort of a demand center. So it 411 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 8: is good, it is going to be very big. That said, 412 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:05,159 Speaker 8: as one of the one of the ten executives in 413 00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 8: one of the AI compies are saying this week, you know, 414 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:08,679 Speaker 8: if there's only one thing you really need to know 415 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 8: about AI, which is it's changing so fast and we 416 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 8: don't quite know what's going to happen. So so the 417 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 8: forecasting here is going to be is obviously going to 418 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 8: be quite tricky. Yeah, short term, we expect the demand 419 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 8: to be demand for power to be supplied by a 420 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 8: rather traditional sources, so it is going to be cold 421 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,240 Speaker 8: and gas coming in. That's in the short term because 422 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 8: the buildout is so rapid so places in the US 423 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 8: like Virginia and Oregon, Texas and Ohio which have classically 424 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:34,240 Speaker 8: I've been able to have been able to supplied again 425 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,800 Speaker 8: to benefit from the immediate demand, but longer term than 426 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:38,680 Speaker 8: renewables have an opportunity to move in here. 427 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 7: Yeah, and that's that's a turn that we see, you know, 428 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,600 Speaker 7: generally in such a type market like Europe. Is that 429 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,639 Speaker 7: not just with data centers, which are traditional sources of 430 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 7: demand for for for for electricity. When the demand gets 431 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,439 Speaker 7: high and the prices spike or maybe the supplies can 432 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 7: you know, constrained, they switch on the traditional sources of 433 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,440 Speaker 7: of of of power to supplement that grid. That means, 434 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:05,399 Speaker 7: you know, switching on a gas plant and using what 435 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:08,160 Speaker 7: can be switched on more reliably than maybe the wind 436 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 7: or the solar, which you know might not be coming 437 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 7: in the middle of a cold, dark day. 438 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:17,880 Speaker 3: EF's Ben Vickers and Bloomberg's Jay Wurtz thank you so much. 439 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 3: We'll have full coverage of the upcoming bn EF summit 440 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 3: on the fourteenth and fifteenth of October across Bloomberg platforms. 441 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 3: I'm Caroline Hepge here in London and you can catch 442 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 3: us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak you at beginning 443 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 3: at six am in London. That's one am on Wall Street. 444 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:37,920 Speaker 2: Nathan, Thanks Caroline. Then coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, 445 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,679 Speaker 2: Gold retreats from a fresh record, we speak to one 446 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 2: of Wall Street's biggest names about the future for everyone's 447 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:58,159 Speaker 2: favorite metal. I'm Nathan Hagar, and this is Bloomberg. This 448 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 2: is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend Global look ahead at the top 449 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,480 Speaker 2: stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Nathan Hager 450 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,560 Speaker 2: in Washington. This week, gold prices topped four thousand for 451 00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,679 Speaker 2: the first time ever. This year has seen a meteoric 452 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,240 Speaker 2: rise for the precious metal. Year to date, it's up 453 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,919 Speaker 2: a whopping fifty percent, and that gain is catching the 454 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,120 Speaker 2: eye of one of Wall Street's biggest names. Ken Griffin, 455 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 2: the CEO of Citadel, says the surgeon gold could point 456 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 2: to a move away from the dollar, and he says 457 00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 2: that's concerning. Ken Griffin sat down for a wide ranging 458 00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,639 Speaker 2: interview with Bloomberg's Francine Loqua to way in on gold's 459 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:37,160 Speaker 2: future and the prospects for a US recession on the horizon. 460 00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,280 Speaker 2: Let's listen into that conversation now. 461 00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 9: Let's just cut to the chase. 462 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:46,159 Speaker 10: Inflation is substantially about target and substantially above target in 463 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 10: all forecasts for next year. I mean, it's part of 464 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,920 Speaker 10: the reason the dollars depreciated by about ten percent in 465 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,240 Speaker 10: the first half of this year. It's the single biggest 466 00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 10: decline in the US dollars six months in fifty years. 467 00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:06,040 Speaker 10: Gold is that record highs and the appreciation in other 468 00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:12,479 Speaker 10: dollar substitutes, to use that word loosely, and items like 469 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 10: crypto for example, is unbelievable. So we're seeing substantial asset 470 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:23,280 Speaker 10: inflation away from the dollar as people are looking for 471 00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,600 Speaker 10: ways to effectively de dollarize or de risk their portfolios 472 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 10: visa vus sovereign risk. 473 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:29,840 Speaker 11: Are you really seeing that? 474 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,720 Speaker 9: Just check the price of goal. Well, I mean, I 475 00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 9: don't have to look very hard. 476 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,200 Speaker 11: Its own, it's a life of its own. 477 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,760 Speaker 9: Gold, No, but it's a life of its own. 478 00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:44,159 Speaker 10: As you see sovereigns around the world, there's central banks 479 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 10: around the world, as you see individual investors around the 480 00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,719 Speaker 10: world go, you know what, I now view gold as 481 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 10: a safe harbor asset in a way that the dollar 482 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:58,359 Speaker 10: used to be viewed. That's what's really concerning to me 483 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:02,840 Speaker 10: and There's been plenty of published research in recent weeks 484 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:07,520 Speaker 10: months about foreign investors now when they buy US equities, 485 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 10: hedging the returns back to their local currency. So that 486 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,240 Speaker 10: again is a bifurcation of I'm going to bet on 487 00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:18,760 Speaker 10: American business, but I want to immunize some of my 488 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 10: sovereign exposure to the United States. 489 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,240 Speaker 11: Can the previous panels talking about the shutdown, given where 490 00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,760 Speaker 11: we are in the shutdown, can the FED properly do 491 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 11: its job at the end of the month in these 492 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,399 Speaker 11: circumstances where we may not have enough data. 493 00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,480 Speaker 10: I don't think the data over a few weeks should 494 00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 10: really be that determinative to the FED. 495 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 9: I mean, that's sort of over. 496 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,919 Speaker 10: Overgrandized, is what the impact or importance to that data is, 497 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:48,719 Speaker 10: particularly with the sampling errors that's intrinsic in how that 498 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:52,600 Speaker 10: data is produced and compiled for the FED. I just 499 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,640 Speaker 10: think that's a bit of a misplaced warrior concern. 500 00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 11: Do you worry about the shutdown full stop? 501 00:27:58,880 --> 00:27:59,160 Speaker 9: Look? 502 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,080 Speaker 10: Shut down a symbolic of a different problem, which is 503 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:07,080 Speaker 10: the dysfunction between the Republican and Democratic Party on resolving 504 00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:09,920 Speaker 10: issues with respect to the budget of the United States 505 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:14,160 Speaker 10: of America, and to be clear both parties today are 506 00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:17,440 Speaker 10: guilty of just profligate spending. You know, as I said 507 00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 10: at the start, the US fiscal situation is that of 508 00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 10: a nation that's trying to work its way out of 509 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:24,240 Speaker 10: a recession. 510 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 9: Except the reality is we're. 511 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:30,879 Speaker 10: Multiple years into a very high period of growth. This 512 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,680 Speaker 10: is where we should be running a deficit of you know, 513 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,600 Speaker 10: in the Clinton day, as we ran a surplus at 514 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,040 Speaker 10: this point in the business cycle, We're now running a 515 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:42,640 Speaker 10: deficit of close to six to seven percent, depending upon 516 00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:45,800 Speaker 10: on where a number of things land. That is just 517 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:50,480 Speaker 10: completely irresponsible. And so what's amazing is we're having a 518 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:53,280 Speaker 10: shutdown debate over the scheme of things a relatively small 519 00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 10: amount of money, and neither party is stepping up the 520 00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 10: plate to deal with or grapple with the reality that 521 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 10: the United States needs to endure a fair amount of 522 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 10: fiscal reform to be in a path for long term sustainability. 523 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:08,320 Speaker 11: Why is it not being talked about? 524 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:13,240 Speaker 10: It's politically unpopular, and unfortunately politics have gotten shorter and 525 00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:17,480 Speaker 10: shorter and shorter in horizon. You know, can you imagine that, 526 00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:19,600 Speaker 10: like I said, in the Clinton day, as they signed 527 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:23,000 Speaker 10: a budget with a surplus, and yet that was in 528 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:26,760 Speaker 10: our lifetime. It's been a long time since we've seen 529 00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:30,920 Speaker 10: that level of discipline in Washington around managing the affairs 530 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:31,920 Speaker 10: of the US economy. 531 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,480 Speaker 11: You worry a lot about debt, or you worry about debt, 532 00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:36,480 Speaker 11: what's the way I don't. 533 00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:38,440 Speaker 10: I mean you must also, like we all have to 534 00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:39,960 Speaker 10: worry about the level of debt we have in the 535 00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,560 Speaker 10: United States, and the market is pretty. 536 00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 9: Cool about it. The market is we'll look past it 537 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:48,640 Speaker 9: for a few years. 538 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,800 Speaker 10: But if you go out with anybody to talk about 539 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:53,960 Speaker 10: what they worry about. 540 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,440 Speaker 9: With respect to the US economy, the. 541 00:29:56,320 --> 00:30:01,760 Speaker 10: Fiscal situation is almost always top of the So you know, 542 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:03,600 Speaker 10: I think there's one thing to keep in mind, which 543 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:07,240 Speaker 10: is acid prices reflect a level of exuberance that we 544 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:07,840 Speaker 10: see today. 545 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,200 Speaker 9: But I got to tell you, if you're out with. 546 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,000 Speaker 10: With anybody who's the asset manage of business top of 547 00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:19,240 Speaker 10: his concerns, the level of spending in Washington is always 548 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:20,320 Speaker 10: top three, if not. 549 00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 9: Number one, on the list. 550 00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 11: What's the way out? 551 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:27,240 Speaker 9: Well, the way out is we need I mean, first 552 00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:28,080 Speaker 9: and foremost. 553 00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 10: Growth is an important part of the way out, and 554 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,400 Speaker 10: this is where the Trump's administration focus on deregulation is 555 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:39,640 Speaker 10: so important. It's so important in terms of creating an 556 00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:45,480 Speaker 10: environment in which growth can exist, like really important. Unleash 557 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:49,080 Speaker 10: unleashed the animal spirits in America. And the one thing 558 00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 10: about this country different than most countries is the entreal 559 00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:57,440 Speaker 10: class in this country is incredibly ambitious and it's really 560 00:30:57,520 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 10: able to make profound changes happen. 561 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 9: I mean, if you look at if you look across 562 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:03,240 Speaker 9: our investment. 563 00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:07,360 Speaker 10: Portfolios, a substantial portion of all the money we invest 564 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:11,000 Speaker 10: is in business has started in the last fifty years. 565 00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 10: I mean, it's it's remarkable the wealth created in this 566 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 10: country by newly formed businesses. 567 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,400 Speaker 9: It's just stunny. It's the envy of the world. 568 00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:28,480 Speaker 10: And the Trump administration is certainly taking steps to help 569 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:35,040 Speaker 10: encourage that continued American success story. But we also need 570 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:40,120 Speaker 10: to give real consideration to tax policy and to spending policies. 571 00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,360 Speaker 10: And I think that the the how are they rebranding, 572 00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 10: rebranding the Big Beautiful Bill at this point? 573 00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:49,160 Speaker 9: Do you know what the rebranding is going to be? Yet? 574 00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:50,360 Speaker 11: How would you rebrand it? 575 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:51,280 Speaker 9: Well? 576 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,520 Speaker 10: I mean, I don't think there's a nice way to 577 00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 10: put lipstick on that pig. I mean, it's it's a 578 00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,120 Speaker 10: it's a pro cyclical tax cut late in the in 579 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 10: the economic cycle, and you know, everybody in this room, like, 580 00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 10: let's be clear, no one wants to pay more in taxes. 581 00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:10,320 Speaker 10: But if you're not on a sustainable set of tax 582 00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 10: policies in the best of times, what policies. 583 00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:16,440 Speaker 9: Will that unleash in the worst of times? 584 00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,040 Speaker 10: You know, for example, the United States head towards a 585 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:23,760 Speaker 10: wealth tax when the inevitable bills come due, will be 586 00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,840 Speaker 10: head towards tax rates that we last saw in Europe 587 00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:31,280 Speaker 10: sixty seventy eighty percent as the inevitable bills come do, Like, 588 00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:36,200 Speaker 10: what is the long term consequence of these policies. 589 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:36,440 Speaker 9: Right here, right now? 590 00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:38,360 Speaker 10: And I think people are very concerned about what that 591 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:41,800 Speaker 10: might be in ten or fifteen or twenty years. How 592 00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 10: to inheritance taxes have to change in light of the 593 00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:48,760 Speaker 10: tremendous amount of wealth held by the baby boomers and 594 00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:52,040 Speaker 10: the tremendous amount of debt that their generation was a 595 00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,200 Speaker 10: part of. So I think these are going to be 596 00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:58,920 Speaker 10: really interesting policy debates that will merge seven years, ten years, 597 00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,840 Speaker 10: fifteen years down the road, which could have some pretty 598 00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 10: adverse consequences. I mean, particularly for America. Not furialism today 599 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,200 Speaker 10: is not sure. You're like, if I build a great business, 600 00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,080 Speaker 10: I will get to keep a substantial amount of wealth 601 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,520 Speaker 10: I create. If you go back to a world of 602 00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,320 Speaker 10: seventy percent tax rates that we had in this country 603 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 10: in this last century, maybe throwing a wealth tax for 604 00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:22,680 Speaker 10: good measure you may really impact that zeitgeist that is 605 00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,440 Speaker 10: so powerful in terms of our economic prosperity. 606 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:27,800 Speaker 11: And where do you see the animal spirits in the 607 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:31,200 Speaker 11: US Because a lot of chief executives say, look, they 608 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:32,960 Speaker 11: like some of the policies, but there are also a 609 00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,680 Speaker 11: lot of policies it could be visas or others, and 610 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,760 Speaker 11: because they're uncertain where the next one comes from, they're 611 00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:40,480 Speaker 11: a little bit reluctant to spend. 612 00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,080 Speaker 10: Right now, Well, I mean, let's be clear that the 613 00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:44,160 Speaker 10: Trump administration has been able to give us a lot 614 00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:46,880 Speaker 10: that we love and a lot that we hate. Right, 615 00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:53,040 Speaker 10: They're an equal opportunity giver. And on the pro side 616 00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:57,880 Speaker 10: is clearly the push for deregulation is clearly a message 617 00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:02,840 Speaker 10: to American whether it's small business owners or entrepreneurs, that 618 00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:07,840 Speaker 10: this country wants to see our commercial class succeed. That's 619 00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:11,120 Speaker 10: like a foreign language to the Biden administration. I mean 620 00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 10: they had no connectivity with American business. The Trump administration 621 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,719 Speaker 10: is very connected in a very different and profound way. 622 00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:22,520 Speaker 9: But having said that, the terror policy has. 623 00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:26,759 Speaker 10: Had incredibly uneven impacts across the commercial landscape. 624 00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:30,640 Speaker 9: I mean, I really do feel sorry for the small. 625 00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:34,040 Speaker 10: And medium sized businesses that are single source in terms 626 00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,840 Speaker 10: of their goods from from Asia who are now seeing 627 00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,520 Speaker 10: tariffs that are at levels that are unimaginable in the 628 00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,200 Speaker 10: context of their business model. They're really going to be 629 00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:46,279 Speaker 10: in a world of hurt over the months ahead, and 630 00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:50,560 Speaker 10: they're not going to have the flexibility that a large 631 00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:53,080 Speaker 10: conglomerate will have and being able to re architects, supply 632 00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:56,200 Speaker 10: chains and navigate around these issues. 633 00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:57,760 Speaker 9: So that's an. 634 00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:00,960 Speaker 10: Area that's that's quite painful to watch. The impact on farmers. 635 00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:04,239 Speaker 10: I mean that the Chinese have voted very clearly to 636 00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:07,280 Speaker 10: buy their food products from other countries, and it's really 637 00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:11,279 Speaker 10: hitting the American farming community quite hards. That's painful to 638 00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:16,080 Speaker 10: watch play out. The immigration policies, I must say, I 639 00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:22,400 Speaker 10: scratch my head over we as a nation are facing 640 00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:26,280 Speaker 10: a birth rate that's below that required to maintain our population. 641 00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,640 Speaker 10: So unless the United States actually wants to shrink in size. 642 00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,719 Speaker 10: Over the next fifty years, we're going to have to 643 00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:37,600 Speaker 10: permit immigration, and I would think that our policies would 644 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:41,120 Speaker 10: be around trying to encourage the best and brightest around 645 00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:44,320 Speaker 10: the world coming to the United States and building careers 646 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,600 Speaker 10: and building families and building roots in our country. You know, 647 00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:50,680 Speaker 10: I've long said every single student in the United States 648 00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:54,080 Speaker 10: with a STEM degree should get a green card, staple 649 00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:57,840 Speaker 10: that diploma and a path to citizenship. You know, roughly 650 00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,960 Speaker 10: fifty percent of all the Silicon Values startups are started 651 00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:05,920 Speaker 10: by immigrants. I mean, it's just remarkable how this country 652 00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,880 Speaker 10: has won in the global war for talent, and. 653 00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:12,719 Speaker 9: We should continue to pursue that aggressively. And then on 654 00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:14,840 Speaker 9: the millions of people who came. 655 00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:17,160 Speaker 10: Across the borders in the last several years, you know, 656 00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:21,319 Speaker 10: I applauded the President for controlling our borders. It was 657 00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:27,240 Speaker 10: really important to stop that flow of illegal immigration. And unfortunately, 658 00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:29,640 Speaker 10: as you and I both know, a number of countries 659 00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:32,279 Speaker 10: in South and Central America didn't send us their best 660 00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:34,520 Speaker 10: and brightest. They did empty their prisons and send people 661 00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:36,360 Speaker 10: to the United States that we really should not have 662 00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:40,200 Speaker 10: welcomed warmly. So I applaud the President for starting the borders. 663 00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:44,520 Speaker 10: But those who've come to this country, who have placed 664 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:48,040 Speaker 10: roots here, who are working and contributing to our economy, 665 00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,120 Speaker 10: we should find a path for them to be able 666 00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:54,680 Speaker 10: to stay here and continue to contribute. They're important in agriculture, 667 00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:58,440 Speaker 10: they're important construction, they're important in the leisure industries. They 668 00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:00,520 Speaker 10: do a lot of jobs that will be damn near 669 00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:05,920 Speaker 10: impossible for us to fill with American American born labors. 670 00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:07,440 Speaker 9: That's just gonna be really tough. 671 00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,080 Speaker 10: And what gets lost in some of the debate is 672 00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:15,000 Speaker 10: they're not taking jobs from Americans buy and large, they're 673 00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:17,200 Speaker 10: actually playing critical roles at help. 674 00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:19,480 Speaker 9: American businesses thrive and succeed that. 675 00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:22,600 Speaker 10: Allow us to employ more people at higher wages across 676 00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:25,319 Speaker 10: the broader economy. So I think when it comes to 677 00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:28,320 Speaker 10: immigration at large, I think we've come off the rails 678 00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,680 Speaker 10: and we really do need to rethink our policies. 679 00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:35,520 Speaker 2: That's Citadel CEO Ken Griffin speaking with Bloomberg's franc Sine Laqua. 680 00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:39,000 Speaker 2: The conversation was part of this week Citadel Securities conference 681 00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,279 Speaker 2: in Manhattan, and for more you can catch the full 682 00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:44,920 Speaker 2: interview on the Bloomberg Podcasts YouTube channel. And that does 683 00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,759 Speaker 2: it for this edition of Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join 684 00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,640 Speaker 2: us again Monday morning at five am Wall Street Time 685 00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,239 Speaker 2: for the latest DOUN, markets overseas, and the news you 686 00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:56,280 Speaker 2: need to start your day. I'm Nathan Hager. To stay 687 00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:59,200 Speaker 2: with us. Top stories and global business headlines are coming 688 00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:00,279 Speaker 2: up right now.