1 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:11,040 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the 2 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: COVID global economy to you. And I'm sorry to say 3 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: this is the last episode in this series of Stephanomics, 4 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 1: but I do hope to be back in a few months. 5 00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 1: When this run began back at the start of April, 6 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 1: we were just getting our heads around this virus what 7 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 1: it could mean for people and economies around the world. 8 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: I think we've done our best to pull together the 9 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 1: pieces of that story in the past few months, with 10 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,199 Speaker 1: reports from Wuhan to Atlanta and Stockholm to Johannesburg. I've 11 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: also got into what it means for policy now and 12 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:45,560 Speaker 1: in the future with top economists such as Joseph Stiglitz 13 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 1: and Stephanie Kelton. This week, I wanted to try to 14 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 1: piece together some of what we've learned with two of 15 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: my favorite economists well known to Stephonomics, Adam Posen, former 16 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 1: interest rates center at the Bank of England, now president 17 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: of the Peterson Institute for International Economic and Stephen King, 18 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:05,839 Speaker 1: former chief economist now senior advisor for HSBC, the author 19 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 1: of multiple books on the future of the world. Adam, 20 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,120 Speaker 1: I might start with you because we spoke right at 21 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: the start of the series about economist understanding of this crisis, 22 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: and we were surprised then at how difficult it had 23 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:30,680 Speaker 1: been in the early days for everyone to grasp the 24 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 1: magnitude and the pace of COVID's impact on the global economy. 25 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:39,960 Speaker 1: Do you think that as a profession we economists have 26 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 1: can have done better since then? Have we managed to 27 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: sort of stay on top of what was happening? I 28 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 1: think yes, Stephanie. I think the economists, in terms of 29 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 1: their immediate policy advice, in terms of the relative unanimity 30 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 1: and being borne out by events, have done surprisingly well. 31 00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 1: And it's reflected by the odd irony that central bankers 32 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 1: like j Palell and Christine Legard are basically getting away 33 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: with huge public support, while doctors and epidemiologists are the 34 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 1: ones being attacked. And if you had told me three 35 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:15,520 Speaker 1: months ago central bankers would be more trusted than doctors, 36 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 1: I would have been pretty surprised. But I think when 37 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:22,080 Speaker 1: we look to the longer term, meaning just in today's world, 38 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 1: just a few months down the road, I think we 39 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 1: may be reaching the limit of the economist success for 40 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 1: three reasons. First, we're getting to the really hard question, 41 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 1: which is when we get back to say, of recovery, 42 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 1: what do you do with all the people in hospitality, tourism, 43 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 1: local services, how do you restructure the economy? And then 44 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:49,919 Speaker 1: the old ideological and genuine uncertainty divides among economists come back. Second, 45 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:52,839 Speaker 1: I think we're in a world where politics is much 46 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 1: more powerful than it used to be, even though sort 47 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 1: of banks are getting away with stuff. As you and 48 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,639 Speaker 1: I have discussed and you've discussed on this podcast, there's 49 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 1: an awful lot of politics, as we just saw with 50 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 1: the European deal, in in making any kind of judgment, 51 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 1: let alone the public health in the US. And the 52 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 1: economists can't predict that. And and so the question is 53 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 1: how do you get past that, not past that, overriding it, 54 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 1: past that makes sensible sense of it. The third difference, 55 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 1: which I think is really interesting intellectually and terrifying personally, 56 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 1: is the extent of essentially irrationality in large parts of 57 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 1: the American public and some other publics with respect the 58 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: mass and social distancing. The economist view borne out recently 59 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 1: in Western Europe and East Asia is it's not really 60 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: the lockdowns that shut down the economy, it's people's fear 61 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 1: of getting the disease, which is why there's a lot 62 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 1: of evidence Bloomberg's reported on about like it didn't really 63 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: matter that much whether you were Sweden or Denmark in 64 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 1: terms of the economy, even though it mattered a lot 65 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 1: in terms of the disease. But in the US, the 66 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 1: assumption I've made, and most economis made is even if 67 00:03:56,240 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 1: Trump messes everything up eventually, most Americans would really is, 68 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: oh my god, I'm going to die or someone I 69 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: know is going to die if I don't pull back 70 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: and we're not seeing that happening yet, and if that continues, 71 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: that is just both horrifying from a part counter sective, 72 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: but impossible to model. To put it very well, Stephen, 73 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I put a similar question to you, 74 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: but also whether you whether you agree with those some 75 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:25,040 Speaker 1: of those three points that Adams made. I mean, where 76 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 1: where do we stand in terms of our understanding of 77 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,039 Speaker 1: the impact on the economy and what are the key 78 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 1: unanswered questions that we may find ourselves unable to find 79 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 1: a solution to. So one thing that I do think 80 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: has come through as a topic that I find puzzling 81 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 1: in many ways is the idea of the v shape 82 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 1: recovery the idea that people have confidence that everything is 83 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 1: coming back, largely in the back of I guess Google 84 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: activity data over the last two months. It's trask me 85 00:04:57,760 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 1: being very odd to argue that you can predict what's 86 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 1: going to happened in the future on the basis of 87 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:03,840 Speaker 1: activity over the last two months, when lockdowns in some 88 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:06,839 Speaker 1: cases have come to an end, and inevitably things have 89 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:10,720 Speaker 1: improved a certain degree. The second thing where I think 90 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: I absolutely agree with Adam is still the sense of 91 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: this idea of scarring, this idea that we don't know 92 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: quite what's going to happen over the next few quarters. 93 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 1: As national lockdowns come to an end, you can be 94 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 1: more optimistic, but we also know it's gonna an awful 95 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: lot of what I described as external lockdowns, that countries 96 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 1: cannot relate to each other because they're in different stages 97 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:36,719 Speaker 1: of dealing with the virus outbreak. And I also think 98 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 1: that there's a potential difficulty with regard to not so 99 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 1: much public debt, but corporate and personal debt in a 100 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 1: situation where incomes are so much more depressed than people 101 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,279 Speaker 1: had expected six months or a year ago, and I 102 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 1: wonder whether that has an impact in terms of the 103 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:57,479 Speaker 1: functioning of the financial system later this year until next year, 104 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: which itself could be a major drag on the of me. 105 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:03,279 Speaker 1: So I think we all as economist had a pretty 106 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 1: good record over the last few months and understanding what 107 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 1: lockdowns and changes in social behavior would due to the economy. 108 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 1: I think there are huge puzzles for the next few 109 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:18,599 Speaker 1: months and quarters. We have had a very sharp bounce 110 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 1: back in many places, certainly on continental Europe and also 111 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 1: in parts of parts of the US. In Europe, particularly 112 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:31,600 Speaker 1: where we seem to have broken the link between economic 113 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:35,040 Speaker 1: activity and the virus coming back maybe in a more 114 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:38,160 Speaker 1: effective way than we have in the US. Is it 115 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 1: is it plausible that we could continue to have a 116 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 1: v shaped recovery or do you think just inevitably we've 117 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: had the best of it in the last couple of 118 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 1: months as lockdowns were removed. Well, the removal of lockdowns 119 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 1: has clearly been enormously helpful in getting a rebound and 120 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 1: activity coming through. I think it's also fair to say 121 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 1: that track and trade systems are much better than they 122 00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 1: would have been just a handful of weeks ago, let 123 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 1: alone months, So that's also good news. But I think 124 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: there are also difficulties that exist which would really be 125 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 1: on Europe's control. I mean, obviously we're talking about the 126 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 1: world whereby even though Europe is looking better, many other 127 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 1: parts of the world looking a whole lot worse. And 128 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 1: when it comes to trade flows of capital business flowing 129 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: in different directions around the world, I think a lot 130 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 1: of that will still be heavily constrained in the months ahead. 131 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 1: And alongside that, even with the rebound that we've seen, 132 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: there could be lots of areas of activity that are 133 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 1: likely to be permanently depressed. Whether it's retail, restaurants, air 134 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 1: travel and all these things are likely to be more 135 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 1: depressed they have been for really quite some time. So 136 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 1: it can be pockets of economy that we permanently weaker 137 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 1: and permanently scarring the economy as a whole in the 138 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: months and quarters ahead. I mean, Adam, you mentioned that 139 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: as one of the key challenges. I mean, we clearly 140 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: are at a different stage in terms of policy making 141 00:07:55,960 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 1: in places where the governments are gone from trying to 142 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 1: put a floor under the economy to actually try to 143 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 1: help it grow, but grow in a world that still 144 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: has to deal with covid um. I wrote something the 145 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: other day which talked about this trade off or the 146 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 1: decision that governments have to make about how much can 147 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 1: be protected and how much needs to be reinvented. Does 148 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 1: anyone have a good handle on how to approach that uncertainty? Right? 149 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: I'm gonna be slightly more optimistic than Stephen, I think, 150 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: but against a very grim baseline. I think the top 151 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 1: end of companies and people employed in those companies, top end, 152 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 1: not in quality and size and revenue, in market share, 153 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 1: they're going to be fine. And we've seen that with 154 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 1: the Fang companies and other companies, and we've seen that 155 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 1: even in airlines that as grim as it is for airlines, 156 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: they're successfully extracting bailouts from from the government's I think 157 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 1: the very micro businesses, people running very small restaurants they're 158 00:08:57,120 --> 00:09:00,679 Speaker 1: suffering is very real. But I also think that to 159 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:03,959 Speaker 1: sound sort of dickenzie In or Milton Friedman, those are 160 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 1: people who are in those businesses because they had to adapt. 161 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 1: They were trying to make a living for their for 162 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 1: their for their families, their entrepreneurial they're used to having 163 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: business failures, frankly, and they're used to having to change jobs. 164 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 1: And I think their resilience. It's very sad, but I 165 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 1: think the resilience is going to surprise people. What I 166 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 1: think gets caught are the sort of mid the employment 167 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 1: in the middle tier, the employment in in those that 168 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 1: are not political or big enough to get the support 169 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:34,839 Speaker 1: and that are too big to be just sort of 170 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 1: no capital, no reputation, just move on to the next thing. 171 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 1: And I think at some point very soon government support 172 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 1: for those people, if they got any and those businesses 173 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 1: is going to run at um. But the place where 174 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 1: I get to be more optimistic is that I think 175 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 1: the governments that did a better job, like in Western 176 00:09:56,760 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 1: Europe and East Asia in dealing with the pandemic, will 177 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 1: also be more resilient going forward because they'll have more 178 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 1: faith from people and investors that that the situation can 179 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:13,199 Speaker 1: be stabilized and vice versa. The US, Brazil, possibly India, 180 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,079 Speaker 1: places that have really messed it up the UK to 181 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: orser degree but still real may suffer an ongoing penalty 182 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 1: that people are just less trusting the government can put 183 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 1: a flora under things. Is that going to affect how 184 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 1: investors look at the world. I mean, we've had we've 185 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 1: had this disconnect for some months now with you know, 186 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 1: there's a stock market acting as if basically the last 187 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 1: seven months has not happened, having gone way down, but 188 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 1: also now where up, but also betting on the US 189 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 1: relative to Europe. I think on the grounds that the 190 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:50,559 Speaker 1: US is just in your words, Adam has just been 191 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 1: more resilient in the past, has been more able to 192 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: make these kind of adjustments. Um, if you're right, then 193 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 1: that might be wrong and we should actually be expecting 194 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 1: Europe to come out falster than this. I I thank 195 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 1: you for picking up on that, Stephanie, and I think 196 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: that is a direct implication of what I'm saying. Um 197 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 1: I I I am able to rationalize the stock market 198 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 1: generally for all the reasons that you've talked about with 199 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 1: others on this program and are well rehearsed. I think 200 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: the most important thing is to recognize in the U 201 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 1: S stock markets, in the in the UK stock markets, 202 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 1: and a lot of advanced economy stock markets, this is 203 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 1: a very particular section of the economy. This is mostly 204 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 1: multinational companies are large companies. It's the ones that happened 205 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 1: not to have been taken private. It's not represented the 206 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:40,959 Speaker 1: economy as a whole. So in some ways they are, 207 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 1: knowing that they've survived, that they have political access, that 208 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 1: they're going to have more market power, frankly because some 209 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:49,960 Speaker 1: of the competition is being driven out, that there's going 210 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 1: to be less wage pressure because so many people are 211 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:56,080 Speaker 1: going to be unemployed. You can rationalize, frankly why the 212 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: stock market is up. But the rotation as it were, 213 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: between US versus Europe, I think, and frankly China and 214 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 1: East Asia is the right thing to consider. And and 215 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 1: one of the things I've most reconsidered over the last 216 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 1: three months is my general assumption that the US always 217 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 1: wins the least ugly contest. Um. I'm beginning to think 218 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 1: for obvious reasons, but I don't think the markets and 219 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: the currency markets in particular put this together yet that 220 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 1: the US is actually getting ugly or faster and Europe 221 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 1: has managed to get a little good plastic surgery in. 222 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:37,839 Speaker 1: Now we should lift our sites a little bit to 223 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 1: the longer term picture. And we've had quite a few 224 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:44,079 Speaker 1: debates on the economics over the last few months about 225 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:47,960 Speaker 1: whether things that had happened as a result of COVID, 226 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 1: possibly the acceleration of some trends we've had in the 227 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 1: past could end up forcing positive change in the world 228 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:57,679 Speaker 1: or instead sort of set us on further on faster 229 00:12:57,800 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 1: on the path to doom as we had newer Rabini 230 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,440 Speaker 1: he definitely believed. But Stephen, you've spent quite a lot 231 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,439 Speaker 1: of time over the years thinking about the long term 232 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 1: prognosis for the world and some of these deep structural changes. 233 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 1: What are you currently thinking about how COVID interacts with those. Well, 234 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 1: I had a dream the other night which is all 235 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 1: about the World Health Organization being treated as a new 236 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 1: important international institution that would be respected by all comers 237 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:33,080 Speaker 1: and would set new health protocols for every country around 238 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 1: the world, and we could suddenly trust each other in 239 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 1: ways that weren't plausible brieviously, and I woke up and 240 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 1: actually spotted the reality, which of course is fundamentally different, 241 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 1: with the U S having removed its funding of the 242 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 1: World Health Organization and the w h O effect of 243 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 1: being caught in a kind of US Sino spat. Actually 244 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 1: it's more than the spack now, of course, but that 245 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 1: basically is what has happened. And I fear that the pandemic, 246 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 1: although it's led to you know, huge amounts of scientific 247 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:07,839 Speaker 1: cooperation around the world which is a glorious site to behold. Really. 248 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 1: There's also lead, I think to new language begining to 249 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: emerge in terms of national champions, strategic industries, the kind 250 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 1: of language we have seen back of the nineteen fifties 251 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 1: and nineteen sixties, perhaps, but it's kind of re emerging. 252 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 1: There are new questions about how fragile global supply chains are, 253 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 1: and that a lot of things I think are in 254 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 1: one sense being used as an opportunity to grab more 255 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 1: in the way of a nationalist agenda and isolationist or 256 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 1: protectionist agenda that was already there. But I fear at 257 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 1: the moment it is likely to become worse rather than 258 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 1: better in the years ahead. Adam, how are you thinking 259 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: about the future? And I guess one aspect there's one aspect, 260 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: which is about is this going to reverse globalization or 261 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 1: merely accelerate some of the things that we're already seeing 262 00:14:56,120 --> 00:15:00,080 Speaker 1: in the way of automation m for example. But I 263 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 1: think another side of that is doesn't change our attitude 264 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 1: to government in a lasting way. No, I think that's right, Stephanie. 265 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 1: The you know, so, I think about trends that were 266 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 1: accelerated or reinforced by the pandemic and the response. And 267 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 1: I think I think in terms of as I think 268 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 1: we've discussed the corrosion of globalization, rather than it rolling 269 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 1: back or forward, that that it becomes more brittle, more uneven, uh, 270 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 1: certain kinds of connections free, but it advances in other way. 271 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: So you know, you can have the EU of all 272 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 1: places putting on restrictions on exports and medical equipment at 273 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 1: the same time that the CPTPP nations are creating a 274 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 1: safe zone. So it's less even across the world, but 275 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 1: deeper in some places. I think the types of political 276 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 1: backlash we're talking about are likely but still to play 277 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 1: for Frankly, Um, when you see the economic nationalists like Bolson, 278 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 1: Arrow and Trump and Johnson and their Air Dowan and 279 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 1: do air Day not having a good run of it 280 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 1: dealing with the disease, that may in the end make 281 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 1: a difference, and that goes to the more positive side. Again, 282 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 1: I'm in the odd position of sounding more optimistic than many, um, 283 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: which just goes back to something you and I talked 284 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:20,760 Speaker 1: about in the first episode, which is the there may 285 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 1: be greater demand for a European style economy, UM, particularly 286 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:31,440 Speaker 1: in the Commonwealth countries and in East Asia than had 287 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 1: been seen previously. It's partly that the cost benefit of 288 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 1: being a free market totally lays a fair which exaggerates obviously, 289 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: but anyway, the more American Anglo American style hasn't prevented 290 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 1: either the crisis of two thousand eight or the bad 291 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 1: response of two thousand twenty. But it's also partly that 292 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 1: we're seeing in fact with the French and the Germans 293 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 1: and the Danes and the even the Italians and the 294 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 1: Greeks are doing is having pretty good results in terms 295 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 1: of keeping people back in employment and keeping firms open. 296 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: And then there's the issue, of course, that is my 297 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: colleague at Peterson Olivable and Chart has led the charge 298 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 1: on not exaggerating the the constraints on fiscal room, not 299 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 1: exaggerating the debt risks. Again, that's not a MMT carte blanche, 300 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:26,159 Speaker 1: but it is it goes with this, and so I 301 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 1: do think there is a possibility that we we see, 302 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 1: if you're about performs, we see some shift to greater 303 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:39,480 Speaker 1: acceptance of a demand for the European style state. I'm interested, Stephen, 304 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: do you think that's plausible. I think it's plausible in 305 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 1: the sense that What does emerge from this crisis is 306 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: the idea that countries regions that have a sense of 307 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 1: social responsibility supposed to individual freedom have tended to do 308 00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 1: to date rather better than those that have oft the 309 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:04,359 Speaker 1: focus on individual freedom. Certainly from a a sort of 310 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 1: British perspective, observing the debate in the US about wearing masks, 311 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 1: it strikes me as being a pretty odd debate, but 312 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:15,680 Speaker 1: it's something that seems to be uniquely American perhaps rather 313 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: than European um. And when you've got those kinds of 314 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 1: differences in behavior, then perhaps it's not so surprising was 315 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 1: seeing differences in terms of outcomes with regard to the 316 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 1: virus UM. The difficulty, of course, is that it may 317 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 1: well be that Europe has a good crisis, but it 318 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,439 Speaker 1: is also the case that Europe over a much longer 319 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:36,280 Speaker 1: period of time has not really delivered an awful lot 320 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 1: of economic growth, and there are plenty of countries around 321 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 1: the world who would like to see more growth than 322 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:44,200 Speaker 1: Europe itself has delivered. UM. So I think a big 323 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,240 Speaker 1: question here is whether coming out of this crisis, Europe, 324 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: through these new fiscal packages and so on, can deliver 325 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 1: something which actually makes a monetary union at the fiscal 326 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:57,080 Speaker 1: union work together in a politically sustainable fashion, and that 327 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:58,919 Speaker 1: I think is still a very very big challenge for 328 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,000 Speaker 1: the for the years ahead. I guess one final thing 329 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:05,159 Speaker 1: is just about when we think about long term impacts, 330 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 1: often one is surprised by how behavior changes in response 331 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 1: to this kind of experience. And we all know, you know, 332 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,120 Speaker 1: the evidence that suggests the big financial crisis can really 333 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 1: change people's attitude to too savings or to the kind 334 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 1: of financial assets they might might want. Is there a 335 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:26,879 Speaker 1: possibility that this crisis does pave the way for inflation 336 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 1: down the road, not because of the sort of short 337 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 1: term impact of the money being pumped into the economy, 338 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:37,880 Speaker 1: but because of a change in attitude towards borrowing and spending. 339 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 1: I mean, it could be that people from now on 340 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,400 Speaker 1: just will not listen to politicians who tell them that 341 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 1: there are constraints on spending and borrowing, because they've seen, 342 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:51,720 Speaker 1: when push comes to shove, that they can spend any 343 00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:54,000 Speaker 1: amount of money to get themselves out of a hole. 344 00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:56,159 Speaker 1: I don't know who, what, Stephen, do you think this 345 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 1: is when historians look back? Is this paving the way 346 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:04,120 Speaker 1: for inflation? I'm let me go first, because I think 347 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:12,640 Speaker 1: Stephen will very different. I'm inflating myself, um, I think 348 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 1: I think there's two opposing forces, Stephanie. On the one hand, 349 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,200 Speaker 1: as you say, sort of the the the wolf has 350 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 1: been called out, and it doesn't mean that there's no 351 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:27,439 Speaker 1: fiscal limit, but it means it matters a lot on 352 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,359 Speaker 1: context what the fiscal limit is, and it matters a 353 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:34,040 Speaker 1: lot on what you spend it um and both of 354 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 1: which have been largely absent from the discussion of fiscal 355 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 1: hawks and fiscal hawk politicians. And so I do think 356 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 1: there will be this sense of liberation, as it were. 357 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 1: But as we've seen with Japan and as we've seen 358 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 1: with Italy, you can have very long term accumulation of 359 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,320 Speaker 1: a lot of debt and it doesn't necessarily lead to inflation. 360 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 1: And I think the countervailing force is large economic. Going 361 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:04,560 Speaker 1: back to behavioral changes, is people save more, are more 362 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:06,960 Speaker 1: risk averse in this kind of situation. I mean, think 363 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 1: about your children are too young, but maybe Stephen's children. 364 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 1: You know that they've seen their contemporaries and their peers 365 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:18,080 Speaker 1: go through two rounds of large unemployment and two rounds 366 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 1: of setback, and they're going to like our grandparents in 367 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 1: the thirties, they're going to be more cautious and there's 368 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 1: fewer things to invest in. The risk adjusted investment propositions 369 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,480 Speaker 1: are so and the one in private savings are going up. 370 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 1: At the second time public savings may be loosened, so 371 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:36,920 Speaker 1: that battle I'm not sure how it works out. I 372 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,919 Speaker 1: see both forces. But the political angle, and this is 373 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,159 Speaker 1: why I made reference to Carter and the seventies is 374 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 1: you know, I have a a very retrograde vision of 375 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:50,360 Speaker 1: inflation in the sense that it it's associated with political breakdounds. 376 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:54,680 Speaker 1: It's associated with UK in the seventies and only the seventies, 377 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 1: Argentine in the eighties, when people lose faith that there 378 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:03,040 Speaker 1: can be agreement that the government can raise taxes if necessary, 379 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,359 Speaker 1: and even if they don't, you need that sort of 380 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: threat that they can raise taxes to establish credibility. And 381 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,400 Speaker 1: if you have social political breakdown, you can't do that. 382 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 1: And that's when people start from the outside and inside 383 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 1: looking abroad. And so to me, that's really going to 384 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:21,159 Speaker 1: be the determined of inflation. How much political division and 385 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:25,119 Speaker 1: inoperability of government of legislatures we get, and then you 386 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 1: might get back to the us once again, it's not 387 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 1: really being attractive to people in a kind of fundamental way. Stephen, 388 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:36,440 Speaker 1: And when I say Stephen, I mean Stephen, Thanks Stephanie, 389 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,880 Speaker 1: Thanks Adam. Um So, I think one thing that has 390 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 1: emerged from this whole crisis is a sense of a 391 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: generational divide. And this is very unfortunate and probably quite 392 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,320 Speaker 1: a sensitive topic to talk about, but the reality is 393 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 1: that the majority people who are particularly vulnerable to COVID 394 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:57,159 Speaker 1: nineteen are relatively mature. The majority of people who are 395 00:22:57,160 --> 00:23:00,159 Speaker 1: particularly vulnerable to the economic consequences of lockdown and so 396 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 1: on are relatively young. And I'd also observed that although 397 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:09,199 Speaker 1: Adam is absolutely right about the ability to have government 398 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,320 Speaker 1: debt rising a lot further than we've seen so far, 399 00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,679 Speaker 1: we also know from wartime going back over two hundred 400 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 1: years or so, that when debt levels get to these 401 00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:21,480 Speaker 1: very high amounts, they eventually do find a way of 402 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 1: coming back down again. And they come down either because 403 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 1: you're very lucky to have very strong income growth that 404 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 1: denominators rising very quickly, as was the case from the 405 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:35,439 Speaker 1: nineteen late forties nine fifties onwards, or it's because of 406 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:39,880 Speaker 1: inflation has happened to particularly buy my Republic and Austria 407 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 1: and so on after World War One. Or it's higher 408 00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:46,159 Speaker 1: taxes of one kind or another, which is what William 409 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 1: Pitt the younger introduced in in order to fund the 410 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:54,680 Speaker 1: Napoleon it was, And I just wonder whether we should 411 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 1: think about the inflation debate, not so much in terms 412 00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,119 Speaker 1: of whether inflation comes along almost by a mistake, but 413 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:04,240 Speaker 1: rather it is one option to redistribute income from those 414 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 1: who have got wealth to those who are in debt. 415 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:09,879 Speaker 1: You can do us through a wealth tax, but wealth 416 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:14,000 Speaker 1: taxes themselves are a tricker to implement, often deeply unpopular, 417 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:16,959 Speaker 1: and so on. So inflation actually is a mechanism by 418 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 1: which you could redistribute income and wealth from the older 419 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 1: generation to the younger generation. Of course, the problem with 420 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 1: us is that with boomers and the seventies and above, 421 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,639 Speaker 1: the older generation is not going to really vote for this. 422 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 1: But there may come a time, and may come a 423 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,399 Speaker 1: point what actually this does begin to come through. An 424 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,520 Speaker 1: inflation could be, at least in the short run, an 425 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,919 Speaker 1: easier option to take than trying to impose nasty taxes 426 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,000 Speaker 1: and people who really want to resist them. Well, Stephen, 427 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 1: as well as giving us our insights. You have given 428 00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:49,480 Speaker 1: me an idea for a cracking new podcast series about 429 00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 1: economists and their dreams, which I will invite you on. 430 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:57,400 Speaker 1: Economists talk about the interesting dreams that they have had. 431 00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,920 Speaker 1: Now that was all. That was all excellent, and I 432 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 1: appreciate you helping me reach the end of our Stephonomics series. 433 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 1: Adam Posen, Stephen King, thanks for listening to this last 434 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,119 Speaker 1: in the current series of Stephanomics. We'll be back in October, 435 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:16,359 Speaker 1: I think, and do keep an eye on this feed 436 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,080 Speaker 1: because if I talked to anyone really interesting before that, 437 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 1: we'll put it out as a special episode. Who knows 438 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,160 Speaker 1: what the world will look like in a few months time. 439 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,679 Speaker 1: But you can always find us on the Bloomberg terminal, website, 440 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 1: app or wherever you get your podcasts. And for more 441 00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 1: news and analysis during the week from Bloomberg Economics, just 442 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 1: follow at Economics on Twitter. This entire series was masterfully 443 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:43,120 Speaker 1: and patiently produced my Magnus Hendrickson, with help from executive 444 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 1: producers Scott Lammon and Lucy Meekin special thanks this week 445 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:50,439 Speaker 1: too to Stephen King and Adam Posen. The head of 446 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:52,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcast is Francesca Leaving