WEBVTT - 4/29/26: Epstein Peter Thiel Plot Exposed, AOC Humiliates Trump Crony, Big Tech Israel Crackdown, Professor Pape On Iran War

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<v Speaker 1>Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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<v Speaker 4>We're joined now by Branco March Titch. He is a

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<v Speaker 4>staff writer at Jacobin. He's the author of yesterday's man,

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<v Speaker 4>The Case against Joe Biden, and is out with a

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<v Speaker 4>truly fantastic deep dive in Deep Dive into Jeffrey Epstein's

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<v Speaker 4>relationship with Peter Teal in Jacomin. Jacobin cannot recommend this

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<v Speaker 4>piece highly enough.

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<v Speaker 5>This is d one.

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<v Speaker 4>When we can put the tear sheet up on the screen,

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<v Speaker 4>you absolutely must go check it out over at Jacobin.

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<v Speaker 4>The headline here Jeffrey Epstein encouraged Peter Teal's pull it

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<v Speaker 4>up journey. So Branco, let's just start with the highlights.

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<v Speaker 4>After spending so much time piecing together these emails between

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<v Speaker 4>Peter Tiel and Jeffrey Epstein, of which there are many,

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<v Speaker 4>what can you tell us about how close the relationship

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<v Speaker 4>was and why?

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<v Speaker 5>Over what types of issues did they bond?

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, well, thanks for having First of all, they were

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<v Speaker 6>extremely close. There's some people that I've written about in

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<v Speaker 6>the context of Epstein, billionaires and you who you know,

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<v Speaker 6>They say, well, just because they were mentioned in emails

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<v Speaker 6>by Epstein doesn't mean that they actually had any kind

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<v Speaker 6>of relationship with them. You can safely say that is

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<v Speaker 6>not the case with Peter tel Teal is all over

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<v Speaker 6>these emails. They are communicating very frequently over the course

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<v Speaker 6>of years. They're having fun calls, they having meetings face

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<v Speaker 6>to face. Epstein is introducing him to, you know, people

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<v Speaker 6>that he seems to think will be particularly useful and influential.

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<v Speaker 7>Fatill t Nar.

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<v Speaker 6>So you know, Epstein is also showering him with all

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<v Speaker 6>kinds of gifts. He's offering to fly into his island

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<v Speaker 6>and his helicopters. He's offering him at one point fifty

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<v Speaker 6>million to one hundred million dollars to invest. He's giving

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<v Speaker 6>him tax advice. He's in turn soliciting investment advice from Teal.

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<v Speaker 6>A Teal at one point introduces Epstein to some of

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<v Speaker 6>his valor co founders and he suggests to put in

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<v Speaker 6>ten million to twenty million dollars into a new fund

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<v Speaker 6>their starting At one point, Epstein even suggests, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>Teal can use one of his top sleep doctors in

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<v Speaker 6>New York. He says, I want you to stay alive.

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<v Speaker 6>So it was a very close relationship and the kinds

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<v Speaker 6>of things they bonded over. I mean, there's a variety

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<v Speaker 6>of things that they talked about, you know. But I

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<v Speaker 6>think that the most pertinent thing to me and looking

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<v Speaker 6>through his emails, is the way that Epstein seems to

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<v Speaker 6>be very interested in Teal's kind of budding involvement and

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<v Speaker 6>interest in politics and geopolitics, and how he seems to

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<v Speaker 6>want to develop and encourage that by kind of introducing

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<v Speaker 6>him to a wide variety of influential players around the

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<v Speaker 6>world and in the context of the US.

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<v Speaker 8>And what I think is so interesting about Epstein and

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<v Speaker 8>who he was connected to, and also Teel aside from

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<v Speaker 8>the obvious is both of these guys were kind of

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<v Speaker 8>on the pioneer of where the kind of Davos world was.

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<v Speaker 8>I don't even even the more extreme weird wing of

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<v Speaker 8>the Davos world almost was headed, particularly when it comes

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<v Speaker 8>to kind of eugenics, when it when it comes to

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<v Speaker 8>mass surveillance and you deploying technologies like Palanteer, that deal

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<v Speaker 8>was developing to usher in kind of new world. Also,

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<v Speaker 8>bitcoin and AI like Epstein Teel like, they were both

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<v Speaker 8>talking about that stuff so much earlier. You know then

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<v Speaker 8>you know, either the public or even kind of other

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<v Speaker 8>people in their set. So what do you make of

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<v Speaker 8>that kind of the ability that they had to see

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<v Speaker 8>where their kind of social set was heading and also

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<v Speaker 8>to kind of drive it in that direction a little bit.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned cryptocurrency because that is a

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<v Speaker 6>big theme I think in Epstein's emails in general, but

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<v Speaker 6>particularly with his relationship with Teal. Epstein kind of suggests

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<v Speaker 6>in one early email when he's trying to get in

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<v Speaker 6>touch with Teal, and by the way, he is really

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<v Speaker 6>before they've become friends. He is really trying to meet

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<v Speaker 6>Teal and to forge a connection with him. You know,

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<v Speaker 6>I think I counted something like ten different times of

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<v Speaker 6>the course of two years that he is emailing people

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<v Speaker 6>trying to set up some kind of meeting with him.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, he says that one of the things that

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<v Speaker 6>is interesting him that he hopes they can connect with

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<v Speaker 6>Teal of is this idea of creating a new financial

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<v Speaker 6>system and alternative financial system.

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<v Speaker 7>Some of that sounds a bit silly.

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<v Speaker 6>He kind of envisions Facebook being the kind of basis

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<v Speaker 6>for a new financial system where you trade favors instead

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<v Speaker 6>of currency. But when you read through the emails, it's

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<v Speaker 6>clear that Epstein's interest in cryptocurrency was a big part

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<v Speaker 6>of this, and you know, I think he hoped to

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<v Speaker 6>use the Teal connection to try and usher this new

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<v Speaker 6>world into into existence. I think there's another aspect where,

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<v Speaker 6>you know, the fact that these guys are both incredibly

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<v Speaker 6>wealthy and that they kind of feel themselves that are

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<v Speaker 6>removed from the rest of humanity. I think both gives

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<v Speaker 6>them the kind of impulse to embark on what might

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<v Speaker 6>look to us like almost wacky schemes. But you know,

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<v Speaker 6>the ones that they're very serious about, and ones obviously

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<v Speaker 6>have very far reaching implications. And you know, in terms

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<v Speaker 6>of the idea of kind of extending lifespan and you know,

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<v Speaker 6>kind of going beyond the limits of normal human existence.

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<v Speaker 6>I would also point to this didn't make it into

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<v Speaker 6>the piece, but there's a exchange that they have where

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<v Speaker 6>it's very brief. Epstein asked Teal, as he does many times,

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<v Speaker 6>whether he's going to come to New York, and Teal

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<v Speaker 6>responds with something like, you know, I don't have any

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<v Speaker 6>interest in coming.

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<v Speaker 7>To the zoo.

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<v Speaker 6>This week or something, and Epstein replies, you know, well,

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<v Speaker 6>sometimes it's fun to look at animals. There's a I

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<v Speaker 6>think that exchange kind of betrays a certain way that

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<v Speaker 6>these guys look at the rest of the world. You know,

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<v Speaker 6>they're so far removed from everyone else that I think

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<v Speaker 6>they kind of view the world as in the rest

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<v Speaker 6>of humanity is is almost kind of a Petri dish

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<v Speaker 6>for for themselves to kind of play around and and

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<v Speaker 6>and re re forge in the in the vision that

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<v Speaker 6>they see.

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<v Speaker 4>For Yeah, a couple of things that stood out to me.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, there's a lot that stood out, but a

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<v Speaker 4>couple of other things they seem to be trying to

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<v Speaker 4>Epstein seems to try to be brokering relationships between Teal

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<v Speaker 4>and the intelligence community. Also people like ultra wealthy both

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<v Speaker 4>businessman like Tom Barack. If I'm remembering correctly, who's what

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<v Speaker 4>our current ambassador.

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<v Speaker 5>To the UAE. He was UAE now he's yeah, but

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<v Speaker 5>he was Trump one UAE, right, Ryan.

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<v Speaker 8>He would know he was doing illegal lobbying for a right.

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<v Speaker 4>Not so he was sort of an ambassador in one

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<v Speaker 4>sense or the other. But he's trying to I can't

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<v Speaker 4>tell if you I'm curious if you read it this

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<v Speaker 4>way as well. Branco, that's he's almost trying to like

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<v Speaker 4>curry favor with Epstein by doing favors for him.

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<v Speaker 5>It seems like he's going out of.

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<v Speaker 4>His way to try to help Teal, that Epstein's going

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<v Speaker 4>out of his way to try to help Teal make

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<v Speaker 4>all of these introductions, and then he's advising him on

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<v Speaker 4>his speech at the r NC. It just knowing how

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<v Speaker 4>much Epstein hates Trump and communicates how much he hates

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<v Speaker 4>Trump to others.

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<v Speaker 5>His relationship with Steve.

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<v Speaker 4>Bannon as much kind of more frank about that, whereas

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<v Speaker 4>with Teal, it's almost like he's trying to imply it

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<v Speaker 4>a Teal that he's fully on board with Trump there's

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<v Speaker 4>just some weird undercurrents.

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<v Speaker 6>I My sense from looking at probably this one thousands

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<v Speaker 6>of these emails is that Epstein did have this falling

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<v Speaker 6>out with Trump, and he was very disdainful towards Trump.

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<v Speaker 6>He did not think very highly of him. But I

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<v Speaker 6>think he understood that Trump was obviously a very influential

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<v Speaker 6>and increasingly powerful person.

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<v Speaker 5>And could be bought in some ways.

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<v Speaker 9>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, and I think Epstein understood that it was probably

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<v Speaker 6>in his interest to have some kind of in with

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<v Speaker 6>Trump release his administration, and Teal I think was.

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<v Speaker 7>Was his end.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, when Epstein finds out that Teal is a

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<v Speaker 6>Trump delegate, that's when he starts sending him these emails

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<v Speaker 6>trying to help him kind of increase his influence within

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<v Speaker 6>Trump's circles, trying to advise him on how to you know,

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<v Speaker 6>not pass off Trump basically and get himself kind of

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<v Speaker 6>kicked out of the in a circle. I mean, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>he tells him, Hey, I heard that you met with

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<v Speaker 6>Tom Barack, and he basically says to him, I can

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<v Speaker 6>I can you know, make that meeting happen? You should

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<v Speaker 6>know him if you if you can kind of have

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<v Speaker 6>your advice listen to by him, You'll be able to

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<v Speaker 6>increase your influence within Trump's Trump's world.

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<v Speaker 7>Later on, yeah, he broke as a meeting between them.

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<v Speaker 6>He reads a BuzzFeed article where Teal is quoted saying

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<v Speaker 6>some unflattering things about Trump, and he tells him, hey,

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<v Speaker 6>be careful.

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<v Speaker 7>You know Trump is very vindictive. You don't want.

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<v Speaker 6>To anger him and kind of get kicked out of

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<v Speaker 6>the clubhouse. And sure enough, from what I could see

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<v Speaker 6>after that that email assent, Teal does not say anything

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<v Speaker 6>negative about Trump up to He's very careful to always

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<v Speaker 6>say positive things. So I think there was a was

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<v Speaker 6>a realization by Epstein similar to the interest he took

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<v Speaker 6>in Steve Bannon, where he similarly tried to introduce him

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<v Speaker 6>to many many powerful and influential people. You gave him

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<v Speaker 6>advice and so on and so forth. I think he realized,

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<v Speaker 6>these two guys are going to be important power players.

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<v Speaker 6>They're going to be influential within the Trump presidency and

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<v Speaker 6>whatever comes after it, and it's probably better for me

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<v Speaker 6>to have a good relationship with him and to have

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<v Speaker 6>a kind of in and you know, the intelligence side

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<v Speaker 6>of things.

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<v Speaker 7>The the some of the other people that he introduced

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<v Speaker 7>him too. I think there's a similar thing going on.

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<v Speaker 6>The names that come up when when Epstein was trying

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<v Speaker 6>to introduce Teal to people includes Bill Burns, who became

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<v Speaker 6>the CIA director under Biden. At the time he was

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<v Speaker 6>a State Department official. They include Kathy Rumler, who was

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<v Speaker 6>the Abartment White House Council once upon a time. He

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<v Speaker 6>says to her at one point when when he's trying

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<v Speaker 6>to get hit to meet Teal, you know, you should bring.

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<v Speaker 7>Some of your spook friends.

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<v Speaker 6>So Epstein seemed to have a particular interest in kind

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<v Speaker 6>of connecting Teal to the world of intelligence.

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<v Speaker 7>And of course, you know what has happened since.

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<v Speaker 6>Then, a Teal is very much deep in the in

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<v Speaker 6>the world of intelligence. You know, Epstein introduced Teal to Hubbarak.

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<v Speaker 6>Teal now has this major partnership with the Israeli military.

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<v Speaker 6>At the same time, Teal also his companies have increasingly

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<v Speaker 6>aligned themselves with this kind of interventionist, pro war side

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<v Speaker 6>of the political spectrum in the United States. Whereas Teal

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<v Speaker 6>used to be, you know, at the time that he

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<v Speaker 6>was had first met Epstein, he was someone who described

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<v Speaker 6>himself as a non interventionist, and he was against the

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<v Speaker 6>US fighting all these wars. So you know whether it's

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<v Speaker 6>what role Epstein played in that. You know, we we

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<v Speaker 6>can only speculate, but Epstein's desire to have it kind

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<v Speaker 6>of have a teal. It's more politically involved and you know,

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<v Speaker 6>a list of us to war. I think has worked

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<v Speaker 6>out for him, even if he didn't live to see

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<v Speaker 6>it happen.

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<v Speaker 8>Well, Bronco, great reporting. Really appreciate you being here.

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, thanks for having I.

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<v Speaker 8>Just encourage everybody to check out his piece. Bronco Marsh,

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<v Speaker 8>teacher of Jackoman magazine. EPA administrator Lee Zelden came to

0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:28.640
<v Speaker 8>Capitol Hill yesterday appeared before the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee

0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:32.320
<v Speaker 8>on the Environment, where he was grilled by AOC over

0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:37.080
<v Speaker 8>glyphasate and exposing what is a kind of fascinating rift

0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:40.560
<v Speaker 8>developing between Trump and the MAHA movement.

0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:42.040
<v Speaker 1>This is a longer.

0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:45.160
<v Speaker 8>Exchange than we usually play from hearings like this, but

0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:47.319
<v Speaker 8>I think after you watch it, you're going to agree

0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:49.920
<v Speaker 8>that the entire thing was worth including let's.

0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:50.840
<v Speaker 10>Roll that now.

0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:54.720
<v Speaker 11>Secretary Kennedy was here a couple of weeks ago and

0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:58.160
<v Speaker 11>when he was asked about glyph estate and the rollbacks

0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:01.760
<v Speaker 11>against protections against toxic chemical. He said that we would

0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:06.120
<v Speaker 11>quote have to ask Lee Zelden about that. So you're

0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:11.840
<v Speaker 11>here before us today, Administrator Zelden. Have you ever participated

0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:15.400
<v Speaker 11>in a meeting with Bayer where you discussed the legal

0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:18.840
<v Speaker 11>or litigation issues that the company was facing.

0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:19.280
<v Speaker 10>No?

0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:22.800
<v Speaker 12>I never did, okay, I have My meeting with them

0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:24.880
<v Speaker 12>was very brief and that topic did not come up.

0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:28.560
<v Speaker 11>All right, I do. Are you aware of any outreach

0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:30.440
<v Speaker 11>that they would have in your agency about this?

0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:35.440
<v Speaker 12>I could say that I directly had a brief meeting, okay,

0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:37.960
<v Speaker 12>but it was a brief meet and greet and that

0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:38.920
<v Speaker 12>topic did not come up.

0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:43.680
<v Speaker 11>Thank you, mister chair. I'd like to submit EPA visitor

0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:49.920
<v Speaker 11>logs from July seventh, twenty twenty five to the committee with.

0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:51.240
<v Speaker 10>That rejection ordered.

0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:56.320
<v Speaker 11>And you're certain they didn't bring up anything regarding.

0:13:55.960 --> 0:14:00.400
<v Speaker 12>Your work, I'm telling you one hundred percent absolutely. I

0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:03.480
<v Speaker 12>maybe there was some brainstorming that was done beforehand of

0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:04.120
<v Speaker 12>potential talk.

0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:05.480
<v Speaker 10>Are you aware of any topic?

0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:09.640
<v Speaker 11>Are you aware of anything brought up to any members

0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:10.920
<v Speaker 11>of your staff or your team?

0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:13.920
<v Speaker 12>I am not aware of that now.

0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:17.880
<v Speaker 11>In this internal email in your EPA, it says that

0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:23.080
<v Speaker 11>Beyer was specifically seeking to and discussing Supreme Court action.

0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:29.240
<v Speaker 11>They will want an update on EPA's regulatory review and that, interestingly,

0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:34.120
<v Speaker 11>Beyer will provide a small thanks for updating the Glypha

0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:38.080
<v Speaker 11>Sate web page from the EPA and work on MAHA.

0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:40.320
<v Speaker 11>Do you have any idea what they might have been

0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:41.520
<v Speaker 11>referring to in this email?

0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:45.720
<v Speaker 12>Well, first off, as I mentioned a few minutes ago,

0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:49.280
<v Speaker 12>it's possible that the team was doing brainstorming of potential topics. Okay,

0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:50.960
<v Speaker 12>as somebody who actually attended to thank you.

0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:52.800
<v Speaker 11>I'm sorry, I just have forty seconds. I'm not trying

0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:56.520
<v Speaker 11>to be rude. This Glypha Sate update that they're referring

0:14:56.520 --> 0:15:00.120
<v Speaker 11>to seems to be correlated to the EPA agency with

0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:04.440
<v Speaker 11>drawing its support for California's cancer warning on Glynphy Say. Now,

0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:07.760
<v Speaker 11>this is important because five days after the EPO this year,

0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:12.120
<v Speaker 11>Beyer filed their opening brief to the Supreme Court, citing

0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:16.160
<v Speaker 11>the Trump's executive order and hinging their case on the

0:15:16.200 --> 0:15:21.080
<v Speaker 11>EPA's warnings or lack thereof of glyphassay. So we have

0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:25.440
<v Speaker 11>internal emails from your agency saying that Beyer wanted to

0:15:25.560 --> 0:15:31.240
<v Speaker 11>thank you and your agency for removing support for California's

0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:35.200
<v Speaker 11>warning because their court their their case before the Supreme

0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:40.200
<v Speaker 11>Court right now, hinges on you not warning the American

0:15:40.240 --> 0:15:43.520
<v Speaker 11>people and withdrawing your support on Glyphys. Do you understand

0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:47.080
<v Speaker 11>the conflict of interest that is before the American people

0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:50.960
<v Speaker 11>right now? Mister Secretary, thank you.

0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:55.680
<v Speaker 12>The gentleman may respond, Okay, So right now EPA is

0:15:56.280 --> 0:16:02.720
<v Speaker 12>completing a an assessment do in twenty twenty six, and

0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:06.800
<v Speaker 12>I understand this is a very important topic for many

0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:09.920
<v Speaker 12>people in this country. This review that the EPA is

0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:14.600
<v Speaker 12>being conducted. My guidance two dedicated career staffers and then

0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:16.480
<v Speaker 12>we have people who've been there for twenty thirty years.

0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:18.160
<v Speaker 12>Is that I don't want to.

0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:21.200
<v Speaker 11>Preach taking a while, Secretary Zone, because let me ask,

0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:23.160
<v Speaker 11>the Supreme Court is going to be making decisions this

0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:26.160
<v Speaker 11>week and Congress is voting this week on legal immunity.

0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:29.920
<v Speaker 12>You made your point. Now I'm asking do you? I answer,

0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:31.480
<v Speaker 12>this is an important part of this and I'm sure

0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:32.040
<v Speaker 12>you also.

0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:35.240
<v Speaker 11>And I think the timing is also very important, Secretary Zone.

0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:36.760
<v Speaker 1>The general aged time has expired.

0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:41.080
<v Speaker 8>Thank you, So before we break down that exchange, let's roll.

0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:46.120
<v Speaker 8>Thomas Massey, Republican Congressman, giving the kind of Maha angle

0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:46.480
<v Speaker 8>on this.

0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:49.560
<v Speaker 13>One of the things in the farm belob still trying

0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:52.960
<v Speaker 13>to get out of it. Was successful in getting this

0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:56.960
<v Speaker 13>out of prior bills is immunity for a German company

0:16:57.000 --> 0:17:00.400
<v Speaker 13>called Bear that makes blyfe to say this is to

0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:04.120
<v Speaker 13>grant farmers immunity. This is to grant corporation immunity if

0:17:04.119 --> 0:17:08.360
<v Speaker 13>they give farmers. If farmers contract a form of cancer

0:17:08.520 --> 0:17:12.960
<v Speaker 13>or non Hodgson salamphoma from this chemical, if this makes

0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:14.080
<v Speaker 13>it into the farm belt.

0:17:13.920 --> 0:17:14.520
<v Speaker 10>Won't be able.

0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:16.399
<v Speaker 13>You won't be able to sue for that. And I

0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:19.600
<v Speaker 13>know they're dealing with some similar legislation at the state level.

0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:23.600
<v Speaker 8>One of the things that I liked about that AOC's

0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:26.920
<v Speaker 8>element Exchange is that she's been a pretty loyal kind

0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:33.119
<v Speaker 8>of Democratic Party figure fairly and hasn't done a huge

0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:36.920
<v Speaker 8>amount of kind of reach out to particularly to say

0:17:37.040 --> 0:17:40.000
<v Speaker 8>Mago or Maha, even though there are a lot of

0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:44.040
<v Speaker 8>positions that she has that can be very appealing to

0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:51.840
<v Speaker 8>people in those coalitions. This is a perfect example of it.

0:17:51.000 --> 0:17:53.239
<v Speaker 1>What did you make of a substance of the back

0:17:53.320 --> 0:17:53.880
<v Speaker 1>and forth too?

0:17:54.560 --> 0:17:58.960
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean this is Lee Zelden in the I

0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:01.840
<v Speaker 4>mean when he was picked for EPA, it was obvious

0:18:01.920 --> 0:18:05.520
<v Speaker 4>there was going to be significant tension between him and

0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:08.200
<v Speaker 4>Maha because he's in the position of being a Trump

0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:13.240
<v Speaker 4>loyalist and Republicans are totally in the pocket of these

0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:16.600
<v Speaker 4>big AG companies, Like in they both parties have their

0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:17.760
<v Speaker 4>kind of big.

0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:20.119
<v Speaker 5>Benefactors.

0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:22.919
<v Speaker 1>For Republicans, what do they share, Yeah.

0:18:22.800 --> 0:18:24.720
<v Speaker 4>They share a lot of them, but for Republicans based

0:18:24.760 --> 0:18:26.320
<v Speaker 4>on the states that they come from, of course, like

0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:29.679
<v Speaker 4>one of them is his AG. It's it's a huge,

0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:32.720
<v Speaker 4>huge lobby. And so Zelden's in this position of being

0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:35.240
<v Speaker 4>a loyalist to Trump trumps all of these rich friends.

0:18:35.280 --> 0:18:37.280
<v Speaker 4>In fact, it's why people believe he's not doing a

0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:41.720
<v Speaker 4>lot of workforce immigration enforcement is that AG guys call

0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:44.520
<v Speaker 4>up and be like, I can't afford to lose all

0:18:44.560 --> 0:18:47.840
<v Speaker 4>of these workers if you start implementing e Verify or

0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:51.480
<v Speaker 4>the like. And they're very influential on Donald Trump. And

0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:53.920
<v Speaker 4>Trump doesn't need to get reelected again, but he does

0:18:53.960 --> 0:18:57.200
<v Speaker 4>like to keep people that he knows happy and basically

0:18:57.240 --> 0:18:59.239
<v Speaker 4>these responsive to people who pick up the phone. And

0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:03.359
<v Speaker 4>Zelden is a pretty normy Republican who also now because

0:19:03.359 --> 0:19:06.760
<v Speaker 4>he's an EPA, has to be a Trump loyalist. It

0:19:06.800 --> 0:19:09.359
<v Speaker 4>actually might have been interesting to see Bobby Kennedy at

0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:11.480
<v Speaker 4>EPA and not at HHS.

0:19:11.480 --> 0:19:11.840
<v Speaker 5>I don't know.

0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:15.800
<v Speaker 4>Obama considered Bobby Kennedy for EPA and ultimately decided he

0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:19.560
<v Speaker 4>was kind of too radical. At the time, someone posted

0:19:19.600 --> 0:19:24.119
<v Speaker 4>this fascinating magazine cover from the late two thousands. I

0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:27.360
<v Speaker 4>want to say it was like Vanity Fair with Julia Roberts,

0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:32.439
<v Speaker 4>George Clooney and Bobby Kennedy warning about climate change.

0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:36.200
<v Speaker 8>It's just like, yeah, he was a leading environmental attorney

0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:38.200
<v Speaker 8>for decades.

0:19:40.359 --> 0:19:41.960
<v Speaker 5>Well a far cry from Lee's Eldon.

0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:47.320
<v Speaker 8>Basically, yeah, exactly. The substance of it is truly incredible.

0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:52.200
<v Speaker 8>So effectively Lee's Alden went and changed the EPA's public

0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:58.000
<v Speaker 8>positioning when it came to round up. The fact that

0:19:58.040 --> 0:20:01.800
<v Speaker 8>he changed that public positioning was then extremely useful to

0:20:01.840 --> 0:20:06.280
<v Speaker 8>them as they moved through the courts trying to fend

0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:10.760
<v Speaker 8>off all of the various challenges from all the destruction

0:20:10.880 --> 0:20:13.800
<v Speaker 8>that the ground up is causing. They then meet with

0:20:13.880 --> 0:20:18.320
<v Speaker 8>him to thank him for doing that, and he denies

0:20:19.359 --> 0:20:22.640
<v Speaker 8>that it remotely came up, and AOC has him kind

0:20:22.640 --> 0:20:23.560
<v Speaker 8>of caught red handed.

0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:27.840
<v Speaker 1>And I was a little angry.

0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:29.440
<v Speaker 8>I'm like, hold on, this is we're supposed to be

0:20:29.480 --> 0:20:31.840
<v Speaker 8>doing the foyas and breaking this news.

0:20:32.040 --> 0:20:35.600
<v Speaker 4>Excuse me, Actually, it's oversight.

0:20:35.720 --> 0:20:37.600
<v Speaker 5>Is her job, that's the point of the committee.

0:20:37.640 --> 0:20:38.080
<v Speaker 1>That's true.

0:20:39.119 --> 0:20:41.560
<v Speaker 8>No, and also nothing stopping us from doing it, So

0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:43.040
<v Speaker 8>it's on us where we failed.

0:20:43.680 --> 0:20:46.439
<v Speaker 1>She got there first. Kudos for the kudos for the

0:20:46.440 --> 0:20:48.760
<v Speaker 1>scoop you can put up E four.

0:20:49.760 --> 0:20:53.520
<v Speaker 8>This is not a remotely a Republican issue.

0:20:54.160 --> 0:20:55.080
<v Speaker 5>This story is awesome.

0:20:55.200 --> 0:20:57.760
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, tell us about tell us about this one. So

0:20:58.040 --> 0:20:58.879
<v Speaker 1>are you sharing some of it?

0:20:58.960 --> 0:21:05.160
<v Speaker 4>Yesterday Halverson went out into a bunch of California wilderness

0:21:05.400 --> 0:21:11.040
<v Speaker 4>and discovered just mass use of roundup, you know near

0:21:11.600 --> 0:21:15.600
<v Speaker 4>I think also in National park space because they're using

0:21:15.640 --> 0:21:18.960
<v Speaker 4>the space essentially as tree farms. Right, you can log

0:21:19.119 --> 0:21:22.760
<v Speaker 4>and grow trees faster if you use glaphy sate and

0:21:22.960 --> 0:21:27.240
<v Speaker 4>just I was gonna say, napalm the National Park Service

0:21:27.800 --> 0:21:31.520
<v Speaker 4>or National Parkland with glaphy sate and that's essentially what's happening.

0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:34.080
<v Speaker 4>So check out that story. There's a video that goes

0:21:34.080 --> 0:21:36.919
<v Speaker 4>along with it. Also a little note in the story,

0:21:38.080 --> 0:21:43.959
<v Speaker 4>Gavin Newsom made it easier to do this. Glafa sa

0:21:44.080 --> 0:21:47.480
<v Speaker 4>Galvin Sagas called greasy Gavin, but I think glyph of

0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:50.359
<v Speaker 4>sake Gavin maybe has a better punch to it.

0:21:51.080 --> 0:21:51.399
<v Speaker 1>Yes.

0:21:52.280 --> 0:21:56.280
<v Speaker 8>So another exchange that Zelden had that was going viral

0:21:56.920 --> 0:22:04.240
<v Speaker 8>on the right I saw was with Rosa Delorots, who

0:22:05.320 --> 0:22:06.080
<v Speaker 8>she's eighty plus.

0:22:06.119 --> 0:22:06.880
<v Speaker 1>I believe.

0:22:08.160 --> 0:22:09.000
<v Speaker 5>She's been around forever.

0:22:10.240 --> 0:22:11.200
<v Speaker 1>Let's play a little.

0:22:10.960 --> 0:22:15.440
<v Speaker 8>Bit of This is not on the same issue, but.

0:22:15.880 --> 0:22:17.040
<v Speaker 5>This is the Clean Air Act.

0:22:17.160 --> 0:22:18.920
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so let's roll E.

0:22:18.960 --> 0:22:21.760
<v Speaker 12>Three following the law Section two O two of the

0:22:21.760 --> 0:22:23.679
<v Speaker 12>Clean Air Act. Where is the same thing about fighting

0:22:23.680 --> 0:22:29.000
<v Speaker 12>global climate change? Loper Bright Supreme Court case. You're familiar

0:22:29.000 --> 0:22:29.280
<v Speaker 12>with it?

0:22:29.960 --> 0:22:32.760
<v Speaker 7>No, I maybe others are not. But let me ask.

0:22:32.840 --> 0:22:35.240
<v Speaker 12>But that's really important. As a member of Congress, Loper

0:22:35.240 --> 0:22:38.520
<v Speaker 12>Bright says that we as as an agency don't have

0:22:38.600 --> 0:22:41.119
<v Speaker 12>the authority to get creative if section two two of

0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:41.880
<v Speaker 12>the Clean Air Act.

0:22:42.160 --> 0:22:43.879
<v Speaker 1>No, no, but you don't have excuse me.

0:22:44.119 --> 0:22:46.960
<v Speaker 14>You do not have the right to say climate change

0:22:47.119 --> 0:22:49.760
<v Speaker 14>does not exist, that it's a hoax. And that's where

0:22:49.800 --> 0:22:50.520
<v Speaker 14>this administration.

0:22:51.080 --> 0:22:51.560
<v Speaker 10>You're upset.

0:22:51.640 --> 0:22:53.000
<v Speaker 12>You don't know what Loper Bright is? Do you know

0:22:53.000 --> 0:22:54.320
<v Speaker 12>what the major policies doctrine?

0:22:54.400 --> 0:22:55.919
<v Speaker 1>Except I'm upset because.

0:22:55.640 --> 0:22:58.119
<v Speaker 12>You know what the Major Policies doctrine is. You're a

0:22:58.160 --> 0:23:00.639
<v Speaker 12>member of Congress, you should know can tell you what

0:23:00.680 --> 0:23:03.240
<v Speaker 12>the two biggest SIP report cases are the last few

0:23:03.280 --> 0:23:07.880
<v Speaker 12>years Michigan verse EPA, West Virginia versyp No, you're.

0:23:07.720 --> 0:23:10.159
<v Speaker 14>Here because you need money from us, So halt for

0:23:10.200 --> 0:23:13.520
<v Speaker 14>the second and wait for the questions and answer the question.

0:23:13.640 --> 0:23:16.000
<v Speaker 12>I answered your question. Do you didn't like my answer

0:23:16.000 --> 0:23:18.320
<v Speaker 12>because you don't know what Loperbride is? Because you don't

0:23:18.320 --> 0:23:19.840
<v Speaker 12>know what the major Policies doctrine is.

0:23:20.200 --> 0:23:22.159
<v Speaker 14>What you want to do is to deny You want

0:23:22.200 --> 0:23:22.359
<v Speaker 14>to know.

0:23:22.440 --> 0:23:24.440
<v Speaker 1>I actually read the law. I do my homework.

0:23:24.840 --> 0:23:27.840
<v Speaker 12>Really, you're just somebody who likes to have the microphone on.

0:23:27.920 --> 0:23:30.000
<v Speaker 12>You know what I have to do. I read the law,

0:23:30.200 --> 0:23:33.680
<v Speaker 12>I read the Supreme Court cases. And we should do

0:23:33.760 --> 0:23:36.760
<v Speaker 12>for your constituents is actually read statue. How are folks

0:23:36.760 --> 0:23:38.160
<v Speaker 12>that the EPA is that you wanted to.

0:23:38.080 --> 0:23:40.840
<v Speaker 14>Fund us BS?

0:23:41.480 --> 0:23:42.880
<v Speaker 10>Do you think I made up these cases?

0:23:43.520 --> 0:23:46.400
<v Speaker 8>Deloro there kind of gave it away when she's when

0:23:46.440 --> 0:23:49.800
<v Speaker 8>she acknowledged that she didn't know what that. I'm surprised,

0:23:50.720 --> 0:23:54.840
<v Speaker 8>but you know, one she's super old, but two I'm

0:23:54.840 --> 0:23:57.160
<v Speaker 8>sure she does. I'm sure she remembers it from the time.

0:23:57.240 --> 0:24:00.320
<v Speaker 8>That's the case that we covered here that rid of

0:24:00.320 --> 0:24:04.600
<v Speaker 8>the quote unquote Chevron doctrine, which the Chevron doctrine was,

0:24:05.200 --> 0:24:08.919
<v Speaker 8>if federal law is somewhat ambiguous, we will defer in

0:24:08.960 --> 0:24:13.919
<v Speaker 8>a common sense way to the administrative state, basically to

0:24:13.960 --> 0:24:17.200
<v Speaker 8>the EPA or whoever is tasked with writing the rules,

0:24:17.200 --> 0:24:20.920
<v Speaker 8>and as long as it's reasonable, then that's fine. Courts,

0:24:21.720 --> 0:24:24.680
<v Speaker 8>the Court, the Supreme Court, our right wing Supreme Court,

0:24:24.760 --> 0:24:27.440
<v Speaker 8>said no, we're going to take that power, like the

0:24:28.320 --> 0:24:32.960
<v Speaker 8>judges are going to do that instead of instead of them.

0:24:33.000 --> 0:24:37.960
<v Speaker 8>And then the other ones that he's referring to said, well,

0:24:38.000 --> 0:24:42.360
<v Speaker 8>you basically you can't have carbon. You know, they got

0:24:42.400 --> 0:24:45.240
<v Speaker 8>rid of allowing carbon to apply underneath under the Clean

0:24:45.280 --> 0:24:45.640
<v Speaker 8>Air Act.

0:24:46.040 --> 0:24:49.639
<v Speaker 1>The Clean Air Act was very clear that, like we are.

0:24:49.760 --> 0:24:53.600
<v Speaker 8>The the Drug Control Act did the same thing. Drug

0:24:53.600 --> 0:24:56.240
<v Speaker 8>Control Act said, these are the drugs that are illegal

0:24:56.359 --> 0:25:00.199
<v Speaker 8>right now, but people are making new drugs constantly.

0:25:00.760 --> 0:25:02.439
<v Speaker 1>You know, LSD will be tweaked, it will become a

0:25:02.480 --> 0:25:02.840
<v Speaker 1>new thing.

0:25:03.200 --> 0:25:05.760
<v Speaker 8>And if the if the scientists that work for the

0:25:05.800 --> 0:25:08.840
<v Speaker 8>DEA determined that that drug is very similar to LSD,

0:25:09.640 --> 0:25:11.879
<v Speaker 8>then that one is also then banned.

0:25:11.960 --> 0:25:14.280
<v Speaker 1>Under the Controlled Substances Act as well.

0:25:15.160 --> 0:25:17.040
<v Speaker 8>You don't have to go back to Congress and ban

0:25:17.160 --> 0:25:19.240
<v Speaker 8>every little single variation.

0:25:18.880 --> 0:25:19.600
<v Speaker 1>Of a new drug.

0:25:20.240 --> 0:25:22.000
<v Speaker 8>The Clean Air Act was the exact same way that

0:25:22.160 --> 0:25:24.919
<v Speaker 8>they would say, we want clean air, and we want it,

0:25:25.320 --> 0:25:27.679
<v Speaker 8>we want we want to protect clean air from pollutants.

0:25:28.040 --> 0:25:30.800
<v Speaker 8>We use of the known pollutants at the time. As

0:25:31.240 --> 0:25:35.280
<v Speaker 8>new pollutants emerged through the industrial process. We're not asking

0:25:36.320 --> 0:25:38.840
<v Speaker 8>the Executive to come back to Congress every single time.

0:25:39.520 --> 0:25:42.920
<v Speaker 8>Just in coordination with the public and public comment periods

0:25:43.000 --> 0:25:47.040
<v Speaker 8>and through your scientific expertise, just add new pollutants. And

0:25:47.080 --> 0:25:53.560
<v Speaker 8>obviously some things are pollutants at all. Pollutants basically are

0:25:53.680 --> 0:25:56.880
<v Speaker 8>safe at some level for the climate and for the world,

0:25:57.480 --> 0:26:02.600
<v Speaker 8>and unsafe at higher levels. And so the EPA, you know,

0:26:02.640 --> 0:26:05.520
<v Speaker 8>through its process, declared that you know, it had the

0:26:05.520 --> 0:26:09.200
<v Speaker 8>authority to regulate carbon, which was in place for many,

0:26:09.200 --> 0:26:13.280
<v Speaker 8>many years, and then the Supreme Court came in and said, no,

0:26:13.320 --> 0:26:17.280
<v Speaker 8>you don't have that authority. So he What frustrated me

0:26:17.320 --> 0:26:21.120
<v Speaker 8>about that clip is that he was trying to take

0:26:21.160 --> 0:26:25.920
<v Speaker 8>what is really a political disagreement and refashion it as

0:26:26.000 --> 0:26:27.560
<v Speaker 8>you just don't know what you're talking about.

0:26:27.680 --> 0:26:30.600
<v Speaker 4>Yes, but I also think that because again we covered

0:26:30.600 --> 0:26:33.000
<v Speaker 4>this at the time, Loper Bread is a really interesting

0:26:33.080 --> 0:26:35.880
<v Speaker 4>case that gets to I think an issue.

0:26:35.640 --> 0:26:37.520
<v Speaker 1>About the fishermen or something right, lobstermen.

0:26:37.960 --> 0:26:40.359
<v Speaker 4>If I'm remember incorrectly, that it actually does get to

0:26:40.400 --> 0:26:44.160
<v Speaker 4>an interesting issue that I think, what Rossa Dolora is Connecticut,

0:26:44.240 --> 0:26:48.440
<v Speaker 4>so I assume her district is some coastline I would assume,

0:26:48.480 --> 0:26:52.680
<v Speaker 4>so I don't know that for sure, but it wass yes,

0:26:53.200 --> 0:26:58.919
<v Speaker 4>bureaucrats in DC basically making rules that were controlling like

0:26:59.280 --> 0:27:02.520
<v Speaker 4>minute details of what these guys were doing off the

0:27:02.520 --> 0:27:04.360
<v Speaker 4>coast of a I want to say it was main

0:27:05.119 --> 0:27:09.199
<v Speaker 4>in Loper Bright. So I also think that something that like,

0:27:09.320 --> 0:27:11.119
<v Speaker 4>first of all, Rosa Dolo should be prepared to make

0:27:11.160 --> 0:27:13.199
<v Speaker 4>the argument that the Clean Air Act, which is at

0:27:13.200 --> 0:27:17.760
<v Speaker 4>the center of Loperbright, should be used differently and like

0:27:17.800 --> 0:27:22.080
<v Speaker 4>it absolutely needs to be guided by Washington for reasons X, Y,

0:27:22.080 --> 0:27:23.600
<v Speaker 4>and Z, so like she should be. If I were

0:27:23.600 --> 0:27:26.160
<v Speaker 4>a Connecticut voter, I'd be like, maam, like get back,

0:27:26.200 --> 0:27:28.919
<v Speaker 4>like let's go, Like this is a very obvious talking

0:27:28.920 --> 0:27:31.159
<v Speaker 4>point against Zelden. But I remember at the time Rain

0:27:31.160 --> 0:27:34.560
<v Speaker 4>and we were talking about how part of the problem

0:27:34.840 --> 0:27:38.640
<v Speaker 4>with Chevron, for example, is that you get these lobbyists

0:27:38.920 --> 0:27:41.760
<v Speaker 4>coming through, or you get the revolving door where you

0:27:41.760 --> 0:27:44.760
<v Speaker 4>have people who were then going to go lobby revolving

0:27:44.800 --> 0:27:47.119
<v Speaker 4>through the door of the EPA, and then they're the

0:27:47.119 --> 0:27:50.320
<v Speaker 4>ones that are empowered to make some of these decisions

0:27:50.320 --> 0:27:53.239
<v Speaker 4>about minute things and you could see somebody from I mean,

0:27:53.280 --> 0:27:56.560
<v Speaker 4>it's happened. You could see people from the industries working

0:27:56.640 --> 0:27:59.560
<v Speaker 4>at EPA making decisions that benefit the industries and then

0:27:59.560 --> 0:28:03.359
<v Speaker 4>getting nice, big fat paychecks. It's really like my dispute

0:28:03.359 --> 0:28:05.159
<v Speaker 4>with it is that I think it's it's anti democratic

0:28:05.200 --> 0:28:09.359
<v Speaker 4>in some ways. So that's to me an interesting for

0:28:09.800 --> 0:28:13.320
<v Speaker 4>democratic to judges. No, I'm not saying that they are,

0:28:13.400 --> 0:28:16.639
<v Speaker 4>but that's like, it's also not a solution to just

0:28:16.720 --> 0:28:19.919
<v Speaker 4>have people who have worked at the EPA and then

0:28:20.000 --> 0:28:22.359
<v Speaker 4>are going over to maybe it's Bear. It's like we

0:28:22.359 --> 0:28:24.119
<v Speaker 4>should actually look up and see how many people who

0:28:24.160 --> 0:28:26.480
<v Speaker 4>have worked at Bear we're here at the EPA now

0:28:26.560 --> 0:28:28.480
<v Speaker 4>or have. But it's I don't think it's a good

0:28:28.520 --> 0:28:29.520
<v Speaker 4>situation either way.

0:28:30.960 --> 0:28:33.119
<v Speaker 8>Well, you got to you have to have some mechanism

0:28:33.160 --> 0:28:37.119
<v Speaker 8>to actually implement what Congress passes. And if to me,

0:28:37.160 --> 0:28:42.479
<v Speaker 8>if Congress says, and all right, so let's uh, let

0:28:42.680 --> 0:28:46.320
<v Speaker 8>when when Democrats, if they come back into power, fine,

0:28:46.760 --> 0:28:51.320
<v Speaker 8>like maybe they need to in every single bill enumerate say.

0:28:52.400 --> 0:28:54.200
<v Speaker 1>We explicitly allow.

0:28:55.160 --> 0:28:58.440
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, but that that has been the assumption right from

0:28:59.240 --> 0:29:03.680
<v Speaker 8>Congress because that's been the settled law for decades and

0:29:03.760 --> 0:29:06.320
<v Speaker 8>the Supreme Court just got rid of it because they

0:29:06.320 --> 0:29:10.840
<v Speaker 8>don't like it. So okay, I guess if Democrats take

0:29:10.880 --> 0:29:14.160
<v Speaker 8>control again, they can come back and say, okay, we

0:29:14.720 --> 0:29:17.400
<v Speaker 8>want to be very clear here carbon is included.

0:29:18.240 --> 0:29:20.760
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, on and on. I think that's good.

0:29:22.000 --> 0:29:25.720
<v Speaker 8>But yeah, anyway, we thought it was useful to play

0:29:25.720 --> 0:29:28.800
<v Speaker 8>both back to back because it also we looked at

0:29:28.960 --> 0:29:34.440
<v Speaker 8>Deloro's eighty three. Oh well and AOC's what thirty seven,

0:29:36.000 --> 0:29:40.800
<v Speaker 8>and so we like people who are fighting, you know,

0:29:41.320 --> 0:29:42.200
<v Speaker 8>for the environment.

0:29:43.480 --> 0:29:45.280
<v Speaker 1>You know, we need people at their best, like.

0:29:45.800 --> 0:29:47.200
<v Speaker 5>Come on, that's a really good point.

0:29:47.200 --> 0:29:48.920
<v Speaker 4>And also I think it was useful to play clips

0:29:48.920 --> 0:29:51.880
<v Speaker 4>back to back because as much as we probably disagree

0:29:51.920 --> 0:29:55.360
<v Speaker 4>with Zelden on a number of issues, like he's slippery's

0:29:55.640 --> 0:29:58.720
<v Speaker 4>he's an effective defender. This is where you're trying like

0:29:58.800 --> 0:30:02.840
<v Speaker 4>he's possibly one of the names for DOJ successor to

0:30:02.920 --> 0:30:07.680
<v Speaker 4>Pambondi because Trump really likes Lee Seldon exactly over clips

0:30:07.680 --> 0:30:09.360
<v Speaker 4>like that. So the other thing I wanted to mention

0:30:09.480 --> 0:30:14.040
<v Speaker 4>Ryan is this was from Politico last month. They had

0:30:14.040 --> 0:30:16.280
<v Speaker 4>a little blurb in their Influence newsletter, which is a

0:30:16.320 --> 0:30:18.560
<v Speaker 4>great window into Washington, better than playbook.

0:30:18.920 --> 0:30:19.320
<v Speaker 5>They wrote.

0:30:19.400 --> 0:30:22.760
<v Speaker 4>Behind Beyar's success, biotech company Behar scored a massive win

0:30:22.920 --> 0:30:25.480
<v Speaker 4>last month when President Donald Trump signed an executive order

0:30:25.480 --> 0:30:28.480
<v Speaker 4>boosting domestic production of the active ingredient in round Up

0:30:28.480 --> 0:30:30.800
<v Speaker 4>weed killer. That was for national security purposes.

0:30:30.880 --> 0:30:31.640
<v Speaker 5>Keep that in mind.

0:30:32.640 --> 0:30:36.840
<v Speaker 4>Back in February, in a new report political Rights, our

0:30:36.840 --> 0:30:38.920
<v Speaker 4>colleagues Marshall Brown and Shan has a little pull back

0:30:38.960 --> 0:30:41.160
<v Speaker 4>the curtain on how the company made its case in Washington.

0:30:41.400 --> 0:30:44.640
<v Speaker 4>Bears CEO met with top Whitehouse officials last year and

0:30:44.640 --> 0:30:47.120
<v Speaker 4>so the company could absorb billions of dollars in litigation

0:30:47.240 --> 0:30:49.440
<v Speaker 4>costs from lawsuits a legend that Clive Is said the

0:30:49.440 --> 0:30:52.080
<v Speaker 4>active ingredient and Roundup caused cancer. I think they've already

0:30:52.080 --> 0:30:55.239
<v Speaker 4>paid twelve billion dollars in settlements over that point. This

0:30:55.280 --> 0:30:57.120
<v Speaker 4>is in the mother Drones article we talked about earlier.

0:30:57.160 --> 0:31:00.000
<v Speaker 4>But twelve billion in settlements. They always settle, They never

0:31:00.200 --> 0:31:03.680
<v Speaker 4>let it go through court. They settle. So take that

0:31:03.720 --> 0:31:06.440
<v Speaker 4>for what you will, but it couldn't also face down

0:31:06.480 --> 0:31:09.200
<v Speaker 4>the regulatory uncertainty. And what Executive saw is the prospect

0:31:09.240 --> 0:31:11.960
<v Speaker 4>of a government ban. It might leave the US market,

0:31:12.200 --> 0:31:14.200
<v Speaker 4>Bahyar told the White House, taking with it one of

0:31:14.240 --> 0:31:18.240
<v Speaker 4>the most blessed, widely used products on US farmland. The

0:31:18.320 --> 0:31:21.560
<v Speaker 4>President ultimately sided with the agriculture industry, taking Bear's threat

0:31:21.640 --> 0:31:24.480
<v Speaker 4>to leave seriously enough to sign an executive order that

0:31:24.520 --> 0:31:26.760
<v Speaker 4>caused us a lot of political heartburn, said a White

0:31:26.760 --> 0:31:29.400
<v Speaker 4>House official. They know that their own voters are not

0:31:29.440 --> 0:31:32.120
<v Speaker 4>happy with this. The official, however, insisted that the administration

0:31:32.240 --> 0:31:34.440
<v Speaker 4>was concerned with protecting the supply chain for all kinds

0:31:34.440 --> 0:31:37.960
<v Speaker 4>of critical minerals irrespective of Bear's lobbying. The arguments the

0:31:37.960 --> 0:31:40.240
<v Speaker 4>company made, the official said, were already being made inside

0:31:40.240 --> 0:31:43.680
<v Speaker 4>the admin well before Beyer made any demands. They have

0:31:43.760 --> 0:31:49.360
<v Speaker 4>also spent a truly incredible amount of money lobbying. That's

0:31:49.640 --> 0:31:51.600
<v Speaker 4>I'm sure that's not surprising to anybody, but here I

0:31:51.600 --> 0:31:54.160
<v Speaker 4>have the numbers in front of me. During twenty twenty five,

0:31:54.200 --> 0:31:58.520
<v Speaker 4>they spent more than nine million dollars lobbying the federal government.

0:31:58.720 --> 0:32:02.200
<v Speaker 5>So that's what nine million dollars by you here in.

0:32:02.200 --> 0:32:07.280
<v Speaker 8>Washington, DC up Next, leaving Mohammed, former TikTok official, joins

0:32:07.360 --> 0:32:13.000
<v Speaker 8>us to talk about his several years of experience there

0:32:13.000 --> 0:32:17.840
<v Speaker 8>dealing with congressional pressure trying to get TikTok to stop

0:32:17.920 --> 0:32:20.200
<v Speaker 8>letting the American and global public.

0:32:19.920 --> 0:32:24.440
<v Speaker 1>Know what was going on in Gaza over the weekend.

0:32:24.440 --> 0:32:28.000
<v Speaker 8>In a surprising upset in Utah's first congressional district, the

0:32:28.000 --> 0:32:31.440
<v Speaker 8>Democratic Party there endorsed Leban Mohammad, a kind of newcomer

0:32:31.840 --> 0:32:34.440
<v Speaker 8>to the race for the party's endorsement. Doesn't mean the

0:32:34.440 --> 0:32:36.760
<v Speaker 8>primary is over. It's a kind of a weird system

0:32:37.400 --> 0:32:40.320
<v Speaker 8>that they've got there. But interestingly, we had already booked

0:32:40.800 --> 0:32:43.120
<v Speaker 8>Leban to come on the show to talk about his

0:32:43.280 --> 0:32:49.600
<v Speaker 8>previous experience serving on the Congressional affairs team over at TikTok,

0:32:49.880 --> 0:32:54.160
<v Speaker 8>which he quit in order to run for Congress. And

0:32:54.200 --> 0:32:58.000
<v Speaker 8>apparently now you know, a serious content, not just a

0:32:58.040 --> 0:33:01.040
<v Speaker 8>serious contender, but you know, may be with Nate Blewin

0:33:01.160 --> 0:33:04.640
<v Speaker 8>and Brian McAdams Ben McAdams Brian or Ben McAdams, the

0:33:04.640 --> 0:33:07.120
<v Speaker 8>former Academy former Ben McAdams, a former member of Congress,

0:33:08.440 --> 0:33:10.400
<v Speaker 8>we got a serious race on our hands. But so Levan,

0:33:10.920 --> 0:33:12.400
<v Speaker 8>thanks so much for joining us.

0:33:12.880 --> 0:33:16.440
<v Speaker 15>Thank you. This is one of my favorite shows. Congrats

0:33:16.440 --> 0:33:20.960
<v Speaker 15>on getting two million subscribers. You're killing it. It's a

0:33:21.000 --> 0:33:23.600
<v Speaker 15>testament to the great reporting work that you're all doing,

0:33:24.520 --> 0:33:28.200
<v Speaker 15>and you know, the highlighting the opinions that need to

0:33:28.200 --> 0:33:28.720
<v Speaker 15>be heard.

0:33:28.960 --> 0:33:31.400
<v Speaker 8>No, you know, we we appreciate it. We're going to

0:33:31.480 --> 0:33:34.320
<v Speaker 8>have Robert Pape on next. He always loves to glaze

0:33:34.320 --> 0:33:36.280
<v Speaker 8>our our audience.

0:33:38.360 --> 0:33:41.760
<v Speaker 4>For sagging show that it's like a cabinet meeting here.

0:33:42.240 --> 0:33:42.880
<v Speaker 12>It's a great way.

0:33:43.080 --> 0:33:44.920
<v Speaker 1>It's a great way to start, no doubt about it.

0:33:45.920 --> 0:33:48.760
<v Speaker 1>So well. But first of all, if you would have told.

0:33:48.600 --> 0:33:50.400
<v Speaker 8>Me when we were talking last week the week before

0:33:50.440 --> 0:33:52.320
<v Speaker 8>that you're like, yeah, I think I'm gonna actually win

0:33:52.360 --> 0:33:55.160
<v Speaker 8>the Democratic Party endorsement, I would be like, Okay, this

0:33:55.240 --> 0:33:58.800
<v Speaker 8>guy's kind of uh, this guy's kind of losing it

0:33:58.800 --> 0:33:59.280
<v Speaker 8>a little bit.

0:33:59.640 --> 0:34:01.720
<v Speaker 1>How how did you pull this off?

0:34:01.840 --> 0:34:02.120
<v Speaker 10>Was there?

0:34:02.400 --> 0:34:04.560
<v Speaker 8>Did you come in with an organized support base or

0:34:04.680 --> 0:34:06.600
<v Speaker 8>do you think that you swayed a lot of people

0:34:06.720 --> 0:34:07.560
<v Speaker 8>at the convention.

0:34:08.800 --> 0:34:12.920
<v Speaker 15>I think a little bit of both. We organized, but

0:34:12.960 --> 0:34:15.920
<v Speaker 15>not in a typical way that politics is organized. We

0:34:16.120 --> 0:34:20.240
<v Speaker 15>just organized with real community leaders who are on the ground,

0:34:20.560 --> 0:34:23.319
<v Speaker 15>typically not in the political process, but are the true

0:34:23.360 --> 0:34:28.640
<v Speaker 15>service providers doing the real implement implementation work, working with

0:34:28.680 --> 0:34:33.239
<v Speaker 15>our homeless community, our displaced communities, working with our refugee communities.

0:34:34.320 --> 0:34:37.160
<v Speaker 15>Something about the Salwake Valley in this district is the

0:34:37.200 --> 0:34:41.880
<v Speaker 15>west side is basically an area that consolidates a lot

0:34:41.880 --> 0:34:46.359
<v Speaker 15>of our marginalized groups and has been long underrepresented not

0:34:46.440 --> 0:34:49.520
<v Speaker 15>only on the federal level but across our government positions.

0:34:49.560 --> 0:34:54.120
<v Speaker 15>And this new district flipped from plus twenty points Republican

0:34:54.239 --> 0:34:57.480
<v Speaker 15>to plus twenty four percentage points Democrat, and it presents

0:34:57.480 --> 0:35:00.600
<v Speaker 15>a new opportunity to have a leadership that reflects perspective

0:35:00.640 --> 0:35:04.799
<v Speaker 15>as well the progressive perspective, the working classes perspective. So

0:35:04.840 --> 0:35:07.840
<v Speaker 15>there was a lot of excitement on the ground for

0:35:08.000 --> 0:35:10.799
<v Speaker 15>our candidacy. And the way that we got this done

0:35:10.920 --> 0:35:14.319
<v Speaker 15>ultimately is showing up with the message that they want

0:35:14.360 --> 0:35:17.680
<v Speaker 15>to hear, which is fighting for affordability and showing a

0:35:17.800 --> 0:35:20.239
<v Speaker 15>character that they can trust and believe in.

0:35:20.880 --> 0:35:24.000
<v Speaker 8>And so we'll cover this race more down down the road.

0:35:24.040 --> 0:35:26.080
<v Speaker 8>For now, I wanted to get a little bit of

0:35:26.120 --> 0:35:33.160
<v Speaker 8>your story on TikTok and so October seventh, happens, you

0:35:33.200 --> 0:35:36.120
<v Speaker 8>know, and I were talking about this before, so October seventh happens.

0:35:36.440 --> 0:35:38.759
<v Speaker 8>You were actually So you're working for TikTok at the

0:35:38.800 --> 0:35:43.439
<v Speaker 8>time in their kind of congregional affairs office, and you're

0:35:43.520 --> 0:35:48.799
<v Speaker 8>in Mecca on a pilgrimage with Palestinian friends. So talk

0:35:48.840 --> 0:35:52.759
<v Speaker 8>about what that experience was like while you're and I

0:35:52.840 --> 0:35:56.120
<v Speaker 8>assume that TikTok was like, yeah, you need to you

0:35:56.160 --> 0:35:58.839
<v Speaker 8>need to check in too now because like this this

0:35:58.920 --> 0:36:00.840
<v Speaker 8>is a major world shaping development.

0:36:00.920 --> 0:36:02.440
<v Speaker 1>So what was that? What was that?

0:36:02.640 --> 0:36:05.439
<v Speaker 8>Like, that's that's got to be an experience that you're

0:36:05.440 --> 0:36:06.240
<v Speaker 8>never going to forget.

0:36:06.840 --> 0:36:10.680
<v Speaker 15>Yeah, absolutely it was. It was one of the most

0:36:10.680 --> 0:36:16.719
<v Speaker 15>pivotal moments in my life and in my perspective. So

0:36:17.000 --> 0:36:20.560
<v Speaker 15>quick background context. My promo role is I used to

0:36:20.760 --> 0:36:24.520
<v Speaker 15>manage the business's responses to congressional investigations and political vestigations

0:36:24.560 --> 0:36:27.040
<v Speaker 15>at large. What that means is, anytime they want to

0:36:27.040 --> 0:36:30.440
<v Speaker 15>send a letter, there's a briefing request, testimony request for

0:36:30.480 --> 0:36:33.440
<v Speaker 15>an executive, I was the one either writing their responses,

0:36:33.480 --> 0:36:37.839
<v Speaker 15>of providing their responses, or preparing sent an executive for

0:36:37.920 --> 0:36:41.800
<v Speaker 15>those engagements. So I just answered questions all the time,

0:36:42.520 --> 0:36:47.800
<v Speaker 15>and I was in this new position as some colleagues

0:36:47.840 --> 0:36:51.960
<v Speaker 15>of my want to on maternity leave, another one left

0:36:52.120 --> 0:36:54.319
<v Speaker 15>the team, and it was just kind of me and

0:36:54.360 --> 0:36:59.040
<v Speaker 15>I'm just learning. And after October seventh happened, I was

0:36:59.080 --> 0:37:02.960
<v Speaker 15>with Palestinian family who have known since I was just

0:37:03.640 --> 0:37:08.439
<v Speaker 15>a small child, and they were telling me in real

0:37:08.520 --> 0:37:13.880
<v Speaker 15>time as things are unfolding, their childhood home blown to pieces.

0:37:15.000 --> 0:37:16.279
<v Speaker 15>It was a father and a son that was with

0:37:16.360 --> 0:37:22.719
<v Speaker 15>particularly the son his wife's entire family killed. And to

0:37:22.920 --> 0:37:29.319
<v Speaker 15>experience something like that in real time as people that

0:37:29.360 --> 0:37:37.720
<v Speaker 15>you love and care about are finding the news.

0:37:34.040 --> 0:37:34.120
<v Speaker 7>It.

0:37:36.320 --> 0:37:39.440
<v Speaker 15>Was a moment that I truly internalized what the apartheized

0:37:39.440 --> 0:37:42.960
<v Speaker 15>state of Israel really is, what they're capable of, and

0:37:43.040 --> 0:37:46.840
<v Speaker 15>what that means in the ordinary people's lives. I've always

0:37:47.040 --> 0:37:50.440
<v Speaker 15>known what the issue is. I've always been a pro Palestinian,

0:37:50.480 --> 0:37:52.799
<v Speaker 15>but it's different when it becomes real and you see it.

0:37:53.680 --> 0:37:58.080
<v Speaker 15>And my job at TikTok, we're getting all these inquiries

0:37:59.400 --> 0:38:05.920
<v Speaker 15>from different like the officials Pro Israeli or lobbying organizations

0:38:06.000 --> 0:38:08.400
<v Speaker 15>you know, I think a d L and all of those,

0:38:09.400 --> 0:38:11.880
<v Speaker 15>and I'm the person that has to respond.

0:38:14.520 --> 0:38:17.719
<v Speaker 8>Frankly, how did they like that? When you would show

0:38:17.800 --> 0:38:19.200
<v Speaker 8>up at these meetings.

0:38:19.400 --> 0:38:21.239
<v Speaker 4>But I was also going to ask what, just like,

0:38:21.480 --> 0:38:23.440
<v Speaker 4>help us understand, you know, from the position that you

0:38:23.480 --> 0:38:26.959
<v Speaker 4>were in how quickly this was obviously a huge, maybe

0:38:26.960 --> 0:38:30.640
<v Speaker 4>the biggest political challenge that TikTok faced in its entire existence.

0:38:30.760 --> 0:38:34.279
<v Speaker 4>After it happened, probably no exaggeration to say that this

0:38:34.400 --> 0:38:38.440
<v Speaker 4>is what led to ultimately the Trump administration selling TikTok

0:38:38.560 --> 0:38:42.160
<v Speaker 4>to American companies. So talk to us about the pressure

0:38:42.360 --> 0:38:44.800
<v Speaker 4>on the inside. And then Ryan's question of how people

0:38:44.840 --> 0:38:48.200
<v Speaker 4>reacted when when you shared your vantage point at some

0:38:48.280 --> 0:38:49.560
<v Speaker 4>of these meetings.

0:38:49.200 --> 0:38:54.320
<v Speaker 15>As well, great question. So the pressure was unbelievable. Words

0:38:54.360 --> 0:38:57.920
<v Speaker 15>can I describe the amount of pressure that existed, and

0:38:57.960 --> 0:39:01.280
<v Speaker 15>it became the number one head and for the company

0:39:01.800 --> 0:39:04.839
<v Speaker 15>that could result in the lack of its existence in

0:39:04.880 --> 0:39:08.600
<v Speaker 15>the largest consumer market in the entire world. We were

0:39:08.600 --> 0:39:12.399
<v Speaker 15>getting inbound inquiries and this is public information. You could

0:39:12.400 --> 0:39:16.000
<v Speaker 15>see a lot of these letters online, I mean every

0:39:16.000 --> 0:39:21.880
<v Speaker 15>few days, every other day from probally lobbying organizations, from

0:39:22.600 --> 0:39:28.600
<v Speaker 15>Israel perspective legislators, and the company was just being inundated.

0:39:29.120 --> 0:39:32.279
<v Speaker 15>But what's really interesting is the lack of questions and

0:39:32.320 --> 0:39:37.520
<v Speaker 15>investigators and inquiries coming from the pro Palestinian perspective, and

0:39:37.600 --> 0:39:40.800
<v Speaker 15>this experience actually made me understand exactly how this influence

0:39:40.840 --> 0:39:45.000
<v Speaker 15>really works. It's more than money. It's persistence, it's sophistication

0:39:45.160 --> 0:39:49.160
<v Speaker 15>behind their lobbying efforts, and they make you feel like

0:39:49.200 --> 0:39:51.239
<v Speaker 15>you're in a bubble, that their perspective is the only

0:39:51.280 --> 0:39:54.359
<v Speaker 15>perspective that exists because of the volume that you're dealing with,

0:39:54.800 --> 0:39:58.880
<v Speaker 15>and everybody knows in the company what it is the

0:39:58.920 --> 0:40:01.440
<v Speaker 15>pressure that exists, and you have to feel like you're

0:40:01.440 --> 0:40:03.520
<v Speaker 15>walking on eggshells because you know, at the end of

0:40:03.560 --> 0:40:07.000
<v Speaker 15>the day that the ultimate purpose of this business, like

0:40:07.040 --> 0:40:10.320
<v Speaker 15>any other business, is to make profit, and the biggest

0:40:10.400 --> 0:40:13.279
<v Speaker 15>risk to wish profit at the current moment is is

0:40:13.360 --> 0:40:18.080
<v Speaker 15>real perspective threatening to participate in the efforts to ban

0:40:18.200 --> 0:40:21.920
<v Speaker 15>the platform. So it was very difficult, but it was

0:40:21.960 --> 0:40:24.759
<v Speaker 15>a fulfilling experience because we were honestly fighting back for

0:40:24.800 --> 0:40:27.359
<v Speaker 15>a long time up until the bill passed and even

0:40:27.360 --> 0:40:31.120
<v Speaker 15>for a little while after that and not capitulating. And

0:40:31.160 --> 0:40:36.239
<v Speaker 15>the reason we didn't capitulate is because of polarity. I

0:40:36.280 --> 0:40:40.120
<v Speaker 15>think people underestimate the benefit polarity has in our geopolitical

0:40:40.200 --> 0:40:41.560
<v Speaker 15>environments when it comes to tech.

0:40:42.719 --> 0:40:45.200
<v Speaker 8>Explain what you mean by that, Yes, I think it's

0:40:45.200 --> 0:40:49.240
<v Speaker 8>an interesting point. What do you mean by polarity, Yes,

0:40:49.560 --> 0:40:51.840
<v Speaker 8>so you have the United States of America, which is

0:40:51.840 --> 0:40:54.040
<v Speaker 8>the largest consumer market in the world, and not only that,

0:40:54.239 --> 0:40:58.719
<v Speaker 8>they also produce the most volume of content on the

0:40:58.719 --> 0:40:59.520
<v Speaker 8>global scale.

0:41:00.080 --> 0:41:03.600
<v Speaker 15>Ability for the business to be able to generate profit

0:41:03.680 --> 0:41:06.080
<v Speaker 15>even outside of the United States is reliant on the

0:41:06.160 --> 0:41:09.240
<v Speaker 15>volume and quality of the content creators and the content

0:41:09.280 --> 0:41:11.800
<v Speaker 15>that's being reade here. At the same time, the parent

0:41:11.840 --> 0:41:16.120
<v Speaker 15>company has a number of subsidiaries in China that are

0:41:16.480 --> 0:41:19.120
<v Speaker 15>making a immense amount of money doing really well. So

0:41:19.360 --> 0:41:22.520
<v Speaker 15>if the company capitulates to the US perspective, while, they're

0:41:22.560 --> 0:41:24.799
<v Speaker 15>going to risk their interest in China. And if they

0:41:24.920 --> 0:41:28.879
<v Speaker 15>capitulate to the Chinese perspective, well, they're going to risk

0:41:28.920 --> 0:41:31.239
<v Speaker 15>their interests in the US. So the business for a

0:41:31.280 --> 0:41:34.279
<v Speaker 15>long time was incentivized to do the only thing that

0:41:34.520 --> 0:41:37.799
<v Speaker 15>was justifiable, which is the right thing. At the end

0:41:37.840 --> 0:41:40.279
<v Speaker 15>of the day, they're not a nation state, and if

0:41:40.360 --> 0:41:43.680
<v Speaker 15>a country is coming after you, it's quite difficult to

0:41:43.719 --> 0:41:47.520
<v Speaker 15>defend yourself. And so for a while, I believe that's

0:41:47.560 --> 0:41:50.320
<v Speaker 15>the reason why they were not capitulating and the propolacy

0:41:50.360 --> 0:41:54.959
<v Speaker 15>and movement and progressive causes were able to be really

0:41:55.000 --> 0:41:58.920
<v Speaker 15>successful on the platform. But now that polarity has been

0:41:58.920 --> 0:42:01.880
<v Speaker 15>stripped with the acquisition. And this is part of the

0:42:01.920 --> 0:42:05.399
<v Speaker 15>reason why I decided to leave the company and run

0:42:05.480 --> 0:42:10.160
<v Speaker 15>for Congress, because I just didn't feel comfortable anymore that

0:42:10.760 --> 0:42:13.560
<v Speaker 15>the motives of the new ownership would be in the

0:42:13.640 --> 0:42:17.600
<v Speaker 15>right place, not because of any evidence specifically, but just

0:42:17.719 --> 0:42:20.960
<v Speaker 15>the rhetoric and the intention is that seemed to be clear.

0:42:21.680 --> 0:42:23.600
<v Speaker 1>And so back to my earlier question.

0:42:23.640 --> 0:42:25.880
<v Speaker 8>Let's say the ADL comes in from meeting, or you

0:42:26.360 --> 0:42:28.800
<v Speaker 8>get told you got to go visit the ADL.

0:42:29.160 --> 0:42:32.040
<v Speaker 1>Or one of these other groups. What was the reaction?

0:42:32.960 --> 0:42:34.440
<v Speaker 8>You know, I think, you know, they're ready to pressure

0:42:34.520 --> 0:42:37.759
<v Speaker 8>TikTok into, you know, capitulating on whatever particular issue. What

0:42:37.840 --> 0:42:44.480
<v Speaker 8>was the reaction when lead m Muhammed walks into the room.

0:42:44.560 --> 0:42:46.320
<v Speaker 15>I think the last thing they would want as a

0:42:46.360 --> 0:42:49.080
<v Speaker 15>person like myself to be the one answering the questions

0:42:49.920 --> 0:42:52.040
<v Speaker 15>at the end of the day, the policies of the policies,

0:42:52.040 --> 0:42:54.839
<v Speaker 15>and I was answering things in an unbiased way, and

0:42:55.520 --> 0:43:00.840
<v Speaker 15>ultimately the company was operating in an unbiased manner. The

0:43:00.880 --> 0:43:03.320
<v Speaker 15>fundamental issue of their concern was the volume of content.

0:43:03.360 --> 0:43:05.200
<v Speaker 15>And the volume of content has nothing to do with

0:43:05.239 --> 0:43:08.759
<v Speaker 15>the business. It's a reflection of the people TikTok and

0:43:08.800 --> 0:43:11.960
<v Speaker 15>these other platforms. It's not only a TikTok issue. They're

0:43:11.960 --> 0:43:13.520
<v Speaker 15>not putting a camera in front of your face saying

0:43:13.680 --> 0:43:19.560
<v Speaker 15>I make this piece of content. But these people wanted

0:43:19.680 --> 0:43:22.000
<v Speaker 15>to address that and the only way to do that

0:43:22.080 --> 0:43:24.440
<v Speaker 15>is throttling, and the company was not.

0:43:24.400 --> 0:43:25.120
<v Speaker 10>Willing to do that.

0:43:26.360 --> 0:43:29.799
<v Speaker 4>And Ryan, can you set up this situation of what

0:43:29.840 --> 0:43:32.200
<v Speaker 4>we know about Ryan Crystal and soccer.

0:43:33.160 --> 0:43:36.760
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so let's this is kind this is kind of interesting.

0:43:36.800 --> 0:43:37.360
<v Speaker 1>It is interesting.

0:43:37.400 --> 0:43:39.560
<v Speaker 8>I think it's legitimately, and it's related a little bit

0:43:39.600 --> 0:43:42.200
<v Speaker 8>to the way that the politics inside kind of TikTok

0:43:42.239 --> 0:43:48.680
<v Speaker 8>are are are evolving. We started Crystal Eyed, started doing

0:43:48.760 --> 0:43:53.200
<v Speaker 8>soccer took We started doing TikTok a little while ago.

0:43:54.080 --> 0:43:58.000
<v Speaker 8>And then I in particular, there's several accounts that started

0:43:58.040 --> 0:44:01.160
<v Speaker 8>like impersonating me and I'm like, okay, whatever, that's fine,

0:44:01.200 --> 0:44:03.319
<v Speaker 8>like in personally just stripping the videos and like doing

0:44:03.360 --> 0:44:06.200
<v Speaker 8>an account that's like very similar to me.

0:44:06.239 --> 0:44:07.640
<v Speaker 1>There's one, there's one up there now.

0:44:07.640 --> 0:44:11.359
<v Speaker 8>It's like at Ryan w grimm underscore, like they throw

0:44:11.360 --> 0:44:15.200
<v Speaker 8>an underscore at the end. And I started getting bothered

0:44:15.239 --> 0:44:18.239
<v Speaker 8>when they started dming people like you want to like

0:44:18.320 --> 0:44:21.720
<v Speaker 8>rip off my content? Fine, like whatever, but they started

0:44:21.760 --> 0:44:24.600
<v Speaker 8>dming people pretending to be me. I'm like, oh, this

0:44:24.719 --> 0:44:27.319
<v Speaker 8>is actually not good, Like this could go in very

0:44:27.400 --> 0:44:31.960
<v Speaker 8>dark direction fast, if like somebody wanted to do something

0:44:32.120 --> 0:44:35.160
<v Speaker 8>you know, gross or something. It's plain with me. So

0:44:35.200 --> 0:44:38.120
<v Speaker 8>I reached out to TikTok and they're like, well, we

0:44:38.120 --> 0:44:40.200
<v Speaker 8>can't do anything, you know. And a bunch of people

0:44:40.239 --> 0:44:44.000
<v Speaker 8>were reporting this account and they're like, well, they're not

0:44:44.120 --> 0:44:47.600
<v Speaker 8>impersonating anybody because this person's a nobody because they're not verified,

0:44:48.000 --> 0:44:50.520
<v Speaker 8>so you can't impersonate nobody. I was like, oh, okay,

0:44:50.560 --> 0:44:53.719
<v Speaker 8>so let me apply for verification. That's been a like

0:44:53.760 --> 0:44:56.879
<v Speaker 8>more than six month process. Now at this point where

0:44:56.880 --> 0:44:59.239
<v Speaker 8>they originally they were telling me that the articles that

0:44:59.280 --> 0:45:02.520
<v Speaker 8>I was submitting about me were not from reputable news outlets,

0:45:02.560 --> 0:45:04.000
<v Speaker 8>even though they were like the New York Times in

0:45:04.040 --> 0:45:06.000
<v Speaker 8>the Washington Post. I'm like, okay, that's kind of funny.

0:45:06.400 --> 0:45:09.560
<v Speaker 8>TikTok doesn't find them credible. I don't either, But who

0:45:09.680 --> 0:45:11.480
<v Speaker 8>then is credible if you don't think the times in

0:45:11.520 --> 0:45:15.319
<v Speaker 8>posts are so, then lev On, you would talk to

0:45:15.360 --> 0:45:18.799
<v Speaker 8>some colleagues internally and try to help Crystal and me

0:45:18.840 --> 0:45:22.160
<v Speaker 8>get going. Crystal, by the way, a former federal candidate

0:45:22.200 --> 0:45:24.640
<v Speaker 8>for office, like there's a rule that basically any federal

0:45:24.680 --> 0:45:27.680
<v Speaker 8>candidate is supposed to get verified, and they still are like, no,

0:45:28.320 --> 0:45:31.279
<v Speaker 8>if you we're not going to verify you. So just

0:45:31.440 --> 0:45:35.040
<v Speaker 8>imposters go so like as somebody who's been involved in

0:45:35.080 --> 0:45:37.839
<v Speaker 8>this kind of verification process, like why do they care?

0:45:37.920 --> 0:45:40.839
<v Speaker 1>Why do they care so much? Like it wasn't when

0:45:40.880 --> 0:45:41.280
<v Speaker 1>I applied.

0:45:41.280 --> 0:45:42.759
<v Speaker 8>It was like not even big deal, just like trying

0:45:42.800 --> 0:45:46.440
<v Speaker 8>to get these imposter accounts not to be doing these

0:45:46.560 --> 0:45:49.120
<v Speaker 8>like fake accounts. But it seems like it's much more

0:45:49.120 --> 0:45:53.400
<v Speaker 8>important to them that Crystal and I not be verified

0:45:53.560 --> 0:45:56.399
<v Speaker 8>than it is dust to get verified. I'm not even

0:45:56.480 --> 0:45:59.360
<v Speaker 8>using the platform as much anymore, Like what, like, is

0:45:59.480 --> 0:46:00.400
<v Speaker 8>what is going on here?

0:46:00.400 --> 0:46:02.680
<v Speaker 1>What's your sense of the politics internally?

0:46:03.360 --> 0:46:06.800
<v Speaker 15>Yeah, it's difficult for me to be able to speculate

0:46:06.840 --> 0:46:11.719
<v Speaker 15>the rationale behind why you or Crystal were not verified.

0:46:12.200 --> 0:46:15.520
<v Speaker 15>I do believe that they're still reviewing your verification applications

0:46:15.800 --> 0:46:18.760
<v Speaker 15>and hopefully they go well, I will say in my opinion,

0:46:19.920 --> 0:46:24.200
<v Speaker 15>it's quite obvious that you guys both and Sagar are

0:46:24.200 --> 0:46:28.480
<v Speaker 15>included far beyond me the threshold of requirements that are

0:46:28.640 --> 0:46:31.560
<v Speaker 15>necessary to be able to receive a verification. And you

0:46:31.600 --> 0:46:35.600
<v Speaker 15>are correct. There is a policy, the acronym is G

0:46:35.760 --> 0:46:39.919
<v Speaker 15>triple PA. But under that there is a requirement for

0:46:40.320 --> 0:46:45.239
<v Speaker 15>government and political accounts, including a credibal congressional candidate, to

0:46:45.360 --> 0:46:49.319
<v Speaker 15>be verified. However, there's a great area that's unclear if

0:46:49.360 --> 0:46:53.320
<v Speaker 15>that applies to retroactively since she's no longer a candidate.

0:46:53.560 --> 0:46:57.560
<v Speaker 15>So I'm unsure there, but we'll see. I will say though,

0:46:57.920 --> 0:47:02.799
<v Speaker 15>as you're somebody that was nominated for a uh yeah,

0:47:02.880 --> 0:47:03.920
<v Speaker 15>what was it? A Plitzer?

0:47:04.000 --> 0:47:07.839
<v Speaker 1>Right, Well, we used to be in the mix for those.

0:47:07.920 --> 0:47:11.120
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I'm sorry, we run one the iHeart radio or

0:47:11.600 --> 0:47:12.920
<v Speaker 4>actually does that mean nothing?

0:47:13.360 --> 0:47:16.040
<v Speaker 1>That's true iHeart radio podcasts.

0:47:16.760 --> 0:47:19.000
<v Speaker 15>I'll say this, if any of our old colleagues who

0:47:19.000 --> 0:47:22.919
<v Speaker 15>were watching this help about they deserve it. They're good

0:47:22.920 --> 0:47:26.480
<v Speaker 15>people who are advocated for the right thing. Ultimately, definitely

0:47:26.520 --> 0:47:29.840
<v Speaker 15>me all of the requirements that are necessary, So I

0:47:29.880 --> 0:47:33.080
<v Speaker 15>encourage you to do that, and I'm quite confident that

0:47:33.080 --> 0:47:35.880
<v Speaker 15>they haven't violated any community guidelines and if they have,

0:47:37.080 --> 0:47:40.400
<v Speaker 15>you should be able to demonstrate that to them. And ultimately,

0:47:41.239 --> 0:47:43.120
<v Speaker 15>what I really like to talk about as well as

0:47:43.360 --> 0:47:44.719
<v Speaker 15>this campaign, just.

0:47:44.920 --> 0:47:46.319
<v Speaker 8>Before you go, I wanted to ask you, I don't

0:47:46.320 --> 0:47:48.120
<v Speaker 8>want to ask you one one camp, kind of a

0:47:48.120 --> 0:47:51.399
<v Speaker 8>strategic question about the campaign. So Nate Lewin is kind

0:47:51.400 --> 0:47:54.560
<v Speaker 8>of well, there were two progressive candidates before you got in.

0:47:54.640 --> 0:47:56.160
<v Speaker 1>One of them seems to have kind of.

0:47:56.160 --> 0:48:01.640
<v Speaker 8>Torture campaign over some like wild like sexual like me

0:48:01.760 --> 0:48:05.280
<v Speaker 8>too stuff. I don't know if she's still a serious

0:48:05.560 --> 0:48:08.800
<v Speaker 8>candidate any anymore, but Nate Blewin has that you're backed

0:48:08.800 --> 0:48:12.120
<v Speaker 8>by ilhan Omar and also the I saw that the

0:48:12.160 --> 0:48:15.520
<v Speaker 8>minority leader, the Democratic State minority leader was at the

0:48:15.560 --> 0:48:18.040
<v Speaker 8>convention also endorsing you, so that that that gives you

0:48:18.080 --> 0:48:20.960
<v Speaker 8>an interesting kind of stretch of endorsements. Nate Blewin's got

0:48:20.960 --> 0:48:24.359
<v Speaker 8>Bernie Sanders endorsement. So one thing I wanted to ask you,

0:48:24.800 --> 0:48:27.600
<v Speaker 8>there's there's so much splitting of the vote among kind

0:48:27.600 --> 0:48:30.160
<v Speaker 8>of progressive candidates that it that it often leads to

0:48:31.840 --> 0:48:33.839
<v Speaker 8>the kind of the more centrist, kind of corporate back

0:48:33.840 --> 0:48:37.760
<v Speaker 8>to candidate winning. So I'm curious would you commit if

0:48:38.280 --> 0:48:42.520
<v Speaker 8>within what what should the threshold be two weeks of

0:48:42.719 --> 0:48:46.080
<v Speaker 8>the mail in ballots dropping if if you're no longer

0:48:46.719 --> 0:48:50.399
<v Speaker 8>kind of a seriously viable candidate, and I guess we've

0:48:50.400 --> 0:48:52.839
<v Speaker 8>got to figure out how to buy decide that would

0:48:52.880 --> 0:48:58.160
<v Speaker 8>you withdraw and endorse the kind of leading populist candidate.

0:48:58.920 --> 0:49:02.920
<v Speaker 15>Yeah, my answer to that question is quite simple. I

0:49:02.960 --> 0:49:05.920
<v Speaker 15>think I believe I prove that I am the viable

0:49:06.000 --> 0:49:11.120
<v Speaker 15>candidate that is able to consolidate the support and beat

0:49:11.239 --> 0:49:14.840
<v Speaker 15>Ben McAdams. Ben McAdams is backed by APAC, he is

0:49:15.239 --> 0:49:20.719
<v Speaker 15>centris at that I would say basically a Republican, and

0:49:21.320 --> 0:49:24.640
<v Speaker 15>Nate Bloomin didn't be Ben McAdams Ben B. Nate believe

0:49:24.640 --> 0:49:27.480
<v Speaker 15>Ben B Ben. So I think that is answer to

0:49:27.520 --> 0:49:32.840
<v Speaker 15>that question. There's some controversies around him. I'm not gonna

0:49:33.280 --> 0:49:36.399
<v Speaker 15>ridicule him for that. I believe in forgiveness and trying

0:49:36.440 --> 0:49:38.920
<v Speaker 15>to see a path forward for him to come back

0:49:38.920 --> 0:49:40.840
<v Speaker 15>from this. He's been doing a lot of great work

0:49:41.560 --> 0:49:44.200
<v Speaker 15>since then, and I commend him on that. But what's

0:49:44.239 --> 0:49:46.239
<v Speaker 15>also true is most voters are going to get that

0:49:46.280 --> 0:49:48.839
<v Speaker 15>ballot in the mailbox and they're going to do their

0:49:48.920 --> 0:49:52.160
<v Speaker 15>little five minute Google church, and it would be a

0:49:52.239 --> 0:49:56.239
<v Speaker 15>shame that in the most progressive open seat in the

0:49:56.400 --> 0:50:00.520
<v Speaker 15>entire nation, that we lose a working class movement because

0:50:00.960 --> 0:50:03.480
<v Speaker 15>we can't pass that Google search tests because of a scandal.

0:50:03.800 --> 0:50:05.600
<v Speaker 15>We need a person with the track record of both

0:50:05.640 --> 0:50:09.239
<v Speaker 15>integrity and results that's advocating for the right things. And

0:50:09.280 --> 0:50:14.279
<v Speaker 15>those are benchmarks that I believe I uniquely meet and

0:50:14.360 --> 0:50:17.000
<v Speaker 15>I am capable of doing even more than that, which

0:50:17.040 --> 0:50:19.120
<v Speaker 15>is bringing new people into the process, which is going

0:50:19.160 --> 0:50:22.239
<v Speaker 15>to be paramount to be able to be bemic Adams.

0:50:22.440 --> 0:50:24.200
<v Speaker 15>So the answer to your question is, yes, I do

0:50:24.280 --> 0:50:29.640
<v Speaker 15>believe in consolidation of the progressive ideology and movement, but

0:50:29.719 --> 0:50:32.120
<v Speaker 15>I believe that it needs to be behind the person

0:50:32.440 --> 0:50:36.080
<v Speaker 15>that can survive, you know, a negative ad campaign, and.

0:50:36.080 --> 0:50:38.400
<v Speaker 8>We'll ask we'll end up we'll ask Nate the same question.

0:50:38.440 --> 0:50:40.480
<v Speaker 8>If people are curious. I think the thing you're referring

0:50:40.480 --> 0:50:43.480
<v Speaker 8>to is there some old comments of his bashing Mormons.

0:50:45.200 --> 0:50:49.400
<v Speaker 15>Well more In the comments he admitted to a hit crame,

0:50:50.320 --> 0:50:53.640
<v Speaker 15>defecating on the place of worship of the predominant faith

0:50:54.400 --> 0:50:57.840
<v Speaker 15>and our state and a number of other things.

0:50:58.080 --> 0:51:00.680
<v Speaker 1>But I'm not going to that's a tough one to overcome.

0:51:01.320 --> 0:51:02.799
<v Speaker 15>Yeah, I don't know if that's going to be a

0:51:02.960 --> 0:51:04.319
<v Speaker 15>survived to Google search test.

0:51:04.400 --> 0:51:04.560
<v Speaker 10>Right.

0:51:04.560 --> 0:51:06.799
<v Speaker 15>We need somebody that's going to make sure that we

0:51:06.840 --> 0:51:10.319
<v Speaker 15>have healthcare as a human right, housing that for her

0:51:10.360 --> 0:51:12.399
<v Speaker 15>own the house, and make sure that we can get

0:51:12.400 --> 0:51:14.080
<v Speaker 15>that as a human rights. Somebody that's going to fight

0:51:14.239 --> 0:51:17.359
<v Speaker 15>to abolish ice and build an immigration system that's rooted

0:51:17.480 --> 0:51:21.080
<v Speaker 15>in our shared humanity. Somebody that's going to fight to

0:51:21.120 --> 0:51:23.680
<v Speaker 15>stop funding endless wars and the genocide of our brothers

0:51:23.719 --> 0:51:26.840
<v Speaker 15>in Sinces and Rosa. Fundamentally, somebody that's going to focus

0:51:26.880 --> 0:51:30.560
<v Speaker 15>on American diplomacy abroad and our own dignity at home,

0:51:30.960 --> 0:51:35.520
<v Speaker 15>and that cannot be jeopardized simply because the character of

0:51:35.560 --> 0:51:38.680
<v Speaker 15>the individual is not able to meet the mark to

0:51:38.719 --> 0:51:42.399
<v Speaker 15>be elected. This is more than just a person. It's

0:51:42.600 --> 0:51:46.960
<v Speaker 15>about the movement and we need somebody that can create

0:51:46.960 --> 0:51:48.000
<v Speaker 15>it and meet it.

0:51:49.280 --> 0:51:52.400
<v Speaker 8>All right, Well, Leban, appreciate you coming on. We'll be

0:51:52.440 --> 0:51:54.759
<v Speaker 8>following this right. This is a This is a really

0:51:54.760 --> 0:51:56.640
<v Speaker 8>interesting one. Thanks thanks for joining us.

0:51:57.520 --> 0:52:00.640
<v Speaker 15>Thank you Ryan, and thank you Emily. This is interesting

0:52:00.680 --> 0:52:03.040
<v Speaker 15>conversation and I hope you guys get your verifacation.

0:52:04.600 --> 0:52:05.960
<v Speaker 5>No mean, I'm not on TikTok. I'm one of the

0:52:06.000 --> 0:52:09.239
<v Speaker 5>good ones that get all right. Thank you even you

0:52:09.360 --> 0:52:10.240
<v Speaker 5>take care bye.

0:52:12.800 --> 0:52:15.480
<v Speaker 4>We're joined once again by Professor Robert Pape over at

0:52:15.520 --> 0:52:17.960
<v Speaker 4>the University of Chicago, also the author of the Escalation

0:52:18.080 --> 0:52:21.920
<v Speaker 4>Trap substack is just escalation trap dot substack dot com,

0:52:21.920 --> 0:52:24.880
<v Speaker 4>where he has been covering the Iraq War from his

0:52:25.000 --> 0:52:29.000
<v Speaker 4>the Iran War from his expert perspective, having spent years

0:52:29.920 --> 0:52:32.839
<v Speaker 4>actually writing about a scenario such as this.

0:52:33.120 --> 0:52:35.719
<v Speaker 5>So Professor Pape, welcome back to breaking points.

0:52:36.200 --> 0:52:38.520
<v Speaker 9>Thank you very much for having me, and have no

0:52:38.600 --> 0:52:42.000
<v Speaker 9>fear we're soon gonna forget about that minor thing called

0:52:42.040 --> 0:52:42.799
<v Speaker 9>the Iraq War.

0:52:43.040 --> 0:52:46.360
<v Speaker 4>Oh, it's so depressing. It's so very depressing to think about.

0:52:46.880 --> 0:52:49.840
<v Speaker 4>Let's just start with the Opek news big news yesterday,

0:52:49.840 --> 0:52:53.320
<v Speaker 4>opeku u a out of Opek by may one.

0:52:54.000 --> 0:52:56.520
<v Speaker 5>What did you make of that? And doesn't fit into.

0:52:56.840 --> 0:52:58.200
<v Speaker 10>Well, yeah, absolutely.

0:52:58.239 --> 0:53:03.520
<v Speaker 9>This is part of a large picture that happened this week.

0:53:04.640 --> 0:53:06.440
<v Speaker 10>This is the week.

0:53:06.560 --> 0:53:11.640
<v Speaker 9>That the United States has truly lost control of the

0:53:11.640 --> 0:53:12.440
<v Speaker 9>Iran war.

0:53:13.800 --> 0:53:15.160
<v Speaker 10>This has all happened.

0:53:15.239 --> 0:53:18.440
<v Speaker 9>It's been building and I've been talking about this, but

0:53:18.600 --> 0:53:20.120
<v Speaker 9>you can now see it.

0:53:21.400 --> 0:53:22.120
<v Speaker 10>This week.

0:53:23.120 --> 0:53:28.839
<v Speaker 9>Iran is negotiating without the United States. So Iran's going

0:53:28.840 --> 0:53:31.480
<v Speaker 9>to Pakistan, it's going to Russia, it's about to go

0:53:31.520 --> 0:53:36.080
<v Speaker 9>to Oman. But it's not about meeting with the United States,

0:53:36.680 --> 0:53:41.040
<v Speaker 9>our allies, at least maybe our former allies, our allies

0:53:41.400 --> 0:53:48.400
<v Speaker 9>say the German leader is publicly saying that America is

0:53:48.640 --> 0:53:51.200
<v Speaker 9>humiliated on the world stage.

0:53:51.680 --> 0:53:53.200
<v Speaker 10>Just think about that for a moment.

0:53:53.760 --> 0:53:56.760
<v Speaker 9>And the global system, the region, and the global system

0:53:56.840 --> 0:54:00.880
<v Speaker 9>is essentially moving on without the United States.

0:54:01.600 --> 0:54:04.279
<v Speaker 10>And that's where the UAE comes in.

0:54:05.040 --> 0:54:09.040
<v Speaker 9>So I definitely understand that it's it's it's a data point,

0:54:09.200 --> 0:54:11.960
<v Speaker 9>and it's thought of as a soda straw, but it's

0:54:12.080 --> 0:54:15.719
<v Speaker 9>much more than that. So what I have been explaining

0:54:15.760 --> 0:54:19.080
<v Speaker 9>on your show on the substack for weeks now is

0:54:19.560 --> 0:54:25.719
<v Speaker 9>that Iran is emerging as the fourth center of world power.

0:54:25.800 --> 0:54:28.319
<v Speaker 9>In fact, you got the exclusive first, even before the

0:54:28.360 --> 0:54:32.399
<v Speaker 9>New York Times. And what that is going to have

0:54:32.719 --> 0:54:37.719
<v Speaker 9>major consequences, And it doesn't unfold all at once, It'll

0:54:37.760 --> 0:54:42.360
<v Speaker 9>fold unfolds over time now within the region. And I

0:54:42.560 --> 0:54:44.400
<v Speaker 9>said this in print and on your show. What this

0:54:44.560 --> 0:54:47.680
<v Speaker 9>is going to mean is that Iran, as it gets

0:54:47.840 --> 0:54:53.000
<v Speaker 9>powerful and as America loses control here and everybody sees

0:54:53.080 --> 0:54:59.520
<v Speaker 9>that this is going to fragment the GCC countries. This

0:54:59.600 --> 0:55:03.319
<v Speaker 9>is not They're not going to all respond in a

0:55:03.360 --> 0:55:08.640
<v Speaker 9>wave or in unison to these changes. What you're going

0:55:08.719 --> 0:55:12.799
<v Speaker 9>to see is each of them increasingly is going to

0:55:12.920 --> 0:55:16.160
<v Speaker 9>act on their own. Think of them as they were

0:55:16.360 --> 0:55:20.080
<v Speaker 9>part of a group and they had group interests. Well,

0:55:20.200 --> 0:55:23.759
<v Speaker 9>now that America is not there to serve as a

0:55:23.800 --> 0:55:27.440
<v Speaker 9>real anchor, and it's now all clear for everyone to see,

0:55:27.520 --> 0:55:31.640
<v Speaker 9>America's just lost control, not losing, but lost control.

0:55:32.440 --> 0:55:34.600
<v Speaker 10>It's no surprise they're fragmenting.

0:55:35.520 --> 0:55:39.560
<v Speaker 9>Earlier, a few weeks ago, Iraq started to move toward

0:55:40.080 --> 0:55:44.160
<v Speaker 9>positions of Iran and started to become increasingly critical of

0:55:44.400 --> 0:55:48.640
<v Speaker 9>American presence in Iraq. This was the beginning of this fragmentation.

0:55:49.480 --> 0:55:53.240
<v Speaker 9>Now what you're seeing is the UAE. They're not moving

0:55:53.280 --> 0:55:55.959
<v Speaker 9>toward Iran. That's not what they're what they're doing because

0:55:55.960 --> 0:55:58.839
<v Speaker 9>they're pretty terrified Iran's about the top going to want

0:55:58.840 --> 0:56:02.759
<v Speaker 9>to topple their government. What they're doing is they're fragmenting.

0:56:02.880 --> 0:56:07.520
<v Speaker 9>They're not going to let Opek or Saudi Arabia, who

0:56:07.600 --> 0:56:11.319
<v Speaker 9>really is the main driver in Opek, just run them

0:56:11.360 --> 0:56:15.320
<v Speaker 9>into the ground. So that's why they are moving away,

0:56:15.760 --> 0:56:18.960
<v Speaker 9>and what they're doing is moving away from a concerted

0:56:19.160 --> 0:56:24.640
<v Speaker 9>counterbalancing coalition that the United States has been trying to

0:56:24.680 --> 0:56:30.439
<v Speaker 9>build for years now with the Abraham Accords counter balancing Iran. Well,

0:56:30.520 --> 0:56:34.319
<v Speaker 9>this is all now just fragmenting. It's falling apart, and

0:56:34.680 --> 0:56:38.200
<v Speaker 9>this is you're only seeing the beginning of the fragmentation.

0:56:38.880 --> 0:56:42.440
<v Speaker 9>This is likely going to get worse, and America can't

0:56:42.480 --> 0:56:47.759
<v Speaker 9>stop it. Notice nobody's even bothering to consult President Trump

0:56:47.840 --> 0:56:50.640
<v Speaker 9>here to say, well, do you think you could change

0:56:50.640 --> 0:56:51.600
<v Speaker 9>the uee's mind.

0:56:51.640 --> 0:56:54.000
<v Speaker 10>What do you think about this? They don't care.

0:56:54.680 --> 0:57:00.120
<v Speaker 9>And that's really devastating for America's interests, America's role in

0:57:01.040 --> 0:57:03.960
<v Speaker 9>the world. And it's kind of hard I think for

0:57:04.040 --> 0:57:07.000
<v Speaker 9>a lot of people to imagine. Although I've been saying

0:57:07.040 --> 0:57:09.799
<v Speaker 9>to expect this, I think now the reality is just

0:57:09.880 --> 0:57:13.200
<v Speaker 9>kind of hard to accept here that it really is

0:57:13.280 --> 0:57:16.840
<v Speaker 9>the case that this is all tragic, but it was

0:57:16.920 --> 0:57:20.880
<v Speaker 9>predictable and you've got basically the decisions of one guy

0:57:20.960 --> 0:57:24.880
<v Speaker 9>in the world. President Trump has enormous power, and he's

0:57:24.960 --> 0:57:30.840
<v Speaker 9>used that power to devastatingly negative consequences for America, the

0:57:30.920 --> 0:57:35.440
<v Speaker 9>region of much of the world's economy, and to the

0:57:35.600 --> 0:57:38.840
<v Speaker 9>growing power of America's leading rivals.

0:57:39.120 --> 0:57:41.360
<v Speaker 5>It puts those reports that the Saudis were pushing for

0:57:41.400 --> 0:57:44.000
<v Speaker 5>Theiron War behind the scenes and interesting context too.

0:57:44.200 --> 0:57:49.600
<v Speaker 8>Indeed, so when we started this program, Brent crude prices

0:57:49.600 --> 0:57:52.320
<v Speaker 8>we're at I think one hundred and fourteen dollars a barrel.

0:57:52.640 --> 0:57:55.240
<v Speaker 8>They're now, as we're kind of getting towards the end

0:57:55.240 --> 0:57:57.760
<v Speaker 8>of the show, up to one hundred and seventeen dollars

0:57:57.760 --> 0:58:01.720
<v Speaker 8>a barrel. That's despite an enormous amount of you know,

0:58:02.200 --> 0:58:06.000
<v Speaker 8>American pressure to keep the prices down, both both through

0:58:06.160 --> 0:58:09.400
<v Speaker 8>kind of deliberate attempts at kind of spreading you know,

0:58:09.480 --> 0:58:13.919
<v Speaker 8>nonsense about their rodians are headed to Islamaba, they're about

0:58:13.920 --> 0:58:16.280
<v Speaker 8>to capitulate, you know, they said they're collapsing. Maybe we

0:58:16.360 --> 0:58:21.120
<v Speaker 8>want they want to open the straight plus actual material

0:58:21.440 --> 0:58:25.920
<v Speaker 8>manipulation using the power of the you know, US Treasury

0:58:26.000 --> 0:58:29.320
<v Speaker 8>to actually get into the markets and play with the numbers.

0:58:30.800 --> 0:58:35.800
<v Speaker 8>What it as you do your kind of forecasting, What

0:58:35.840 --> 0:58:40.080
<v Speaker 8>does one hundred and seventeen dollars barrel oil due to

0:58:40.160 --> 0:58:44.040
<v Speaker 8>those calculations, and what does it say about what what

0:58:44.040 --> 0:58:45.520
<v Speaker 8>what room Trump has to maneuver?

0:58:46.120 --> 0:58:49.720
<v Speaker 9>Well, Well, what we are seeing and I we've talked

0:58:49.760 --> 0:58:54.960
<v Speaker 9>about this before, is there is a trajectory here with

0:58:55.080 --> 0:58:58.560
<v Speaker 9>the straight of horror moves being closed down and everybody

0:58:58.600 --> 0:59:01.160
<v Speaker 9>now knows closed down eight percent of the world's oil,

0:59:01.200 --> 0:59:04.440
<v Speaker 9>thirty percent fertilizer dot dot dot. But the trajectory is

0:59:05.080 --> 0:59:08.040
<v Speaker 9>in the first forty five days and we're nowaday sixty.

0:59:08.400 --> 0:59:11.840
<v Speaker 9>The first forty five days it was simply price rising

0:59:12.000 --> 0:59:16.560
<v Speaker 9>and price rising notably, but in anticipation of stage two,

0:59:16.760 --> 0:59:21.320
<v Speaker 9>which started about actually two weeks ago. It's this middle

0:59:21.400 --> 0:59:28.000
<v Speaker 9>stage where shortages, actual shortages are appearing, and that has

0:59:28.040 --> 0:59:30.840
<v Speaker 9>been recorded here. You know the worry about the jet

0:59:30.880 --> 0:59:34.200
<v Speaker 9>fuel Europe, and this is just the beginning of all this.

0:59:34.800 --> 0:59:38.080
<v Speaker 9>But that is what you are seeing now, and this

0:59:38.320 --> 0:59:43.440
<v Speaker 9>is going to get worse because the all the ships

0:59:43.640 --> 0:59:46.840
<v Speaker 9>that were in transit over the last couple of months,

0:59:46.840 --> 0:59:50.320
<v Speaker 9>it could possibly still have some oil in them, they've

0:59:50.360 --> 0:59:54.640
<v Speaker 9>all hit dry dock, they've all been there. The storage areas,

0:59:54.680 --> 0:59:58.600
<v Speaker 9>the storage bends that are full here have now started

0:59:58.640 --> 1:00:01.440
<v Speaker 9>to be suck dry. So what you were getting now

1:00:01.800 --> 1:00:06.960
<v Speaker 9>is the true shortage period starting, and it actually started

1:00:07.040 --> 1:00:09.600
<v Speaker 9>about ten days ago. And we've talked a bit about this,

1:00:10.000 --> 1:00:12.920
<v Speaker 9>and this is why now the price of oil. Is

1:00:13.200 --> 1:00:16.000
<v Speaker 9>it's not like prices just went up once and then

1:00:16.280 --> 1:00:19.400
<v Speaker 9>they stopped once the shortage is actually hit. It's not

1:00:19.440 --> 1:00:22.640
<v Speaker 9>a probability, it's a reality. And that's what you're seeing

1:00:22.800 --> 1:00:27.200
<v Speaker 9>with the price of oil. And this is, unfortunately something

1:00:27.320 --> 1:00:30.400
<v Speaker 9>that's going to go on because as shortages occur, it's

1:00:30.480 --> 1:00:35.400
<v Speaker 9>supply and demand. There's still demand for this, but there's

1:00:35.600 --> 1:00:39.120
<v Speaker 9>less of it, so the price of what's left must

1:00:39.360 --> 1:00:42.840
<v Speaker 9>go up. That's the only way to sort that out.

1:00:43.320 --> 1:00:46.200
<v Speaker 9>And so that's why the price is going to go up.

1:00:46.240 --> 1:00:49.760
<v Speaker 9>And this was fully predictable. This is not a you know,

1:00:49.880 --> 1:00:53.160
<v Speaker 9>the markets may have tried to pretend. Donald Trump may

1:00:53.200 --> 1:00:56.720
<v Speaker 9>have tried to pretend, but you know, reality has a

1:00:56.760 --> 1:01:01.080
<v Speaker 9>way of coming in and showing its ugly head, and

1:01:01.120 --> 1:01:05.280
<v Speaker 9>that's what you were seeing. And unfortunately, May is going

1:01:05.400 --> 1:01:09.640
<v Speaker 9>to be this period where the real shortages and those

1:01:09.680 --> 1:01:11.880
<v Speaker 9>effects are going to be start to be felt. And

1:01:11.920 --> 1:01:15.680
<v Speaker 9>then by the middle of May, probably the end of May,

1:01:15.920 --> 1:01:21.600
<v Speaker 9>you will see actual contraction occurring. You'll liftimes announce for example,

1:01:21.640 --> 1:01:24.360
<v Speaker 9>a week ago it would lay off or not lay

1:01:24.560 --> 1:01:27.360
<v Speaker 9>it would have twenty thousand flights canceled, These short haul

1:01:27.440 --> 1:01:30.480
<v Speaker 9>flights canceled well, this is probably.

1:01:30.080 --> 1:01:32.640
<v Speaker 10>Then going to lead to in a month, a few

1:01:32.640 --> 1:01:34.000
<v Speaker 10>weeks later layoffs.

1:01:34.440 --> 1:01:37.840
<v Speaker 9>That is, you will start to see in the middle

1:01:37.880 --> 1:01:40.440
<v Speaker 9>of May, end of May, you're going to start to

1:01:40.440 --> 1:01:46.560
<v Speaker 9>see rising inflation. The prices going up equals inflation, and

1:01:46.600 --> 1:01:50.600
<v Speaker 9>you'll see the beginning then side by side of rising unemployment.

1:01:50.920 --> 1:01:54.120
<v Speaker 9>This is just the beginning. This is the first ninety days.

1:01:54.120 --> 1:01:56.280
<v Speaker 9>Now as we get into one hundred and twenty days,

1:01:56.640 --> 1:02:00.560
<v Speaker 9>these things will simply get worse. That's what happened in

1:02:00.600 --> 1:02:04.320
<v Speaker 9>the nineteen seventies. It was called the misery index. We

1:02:04.400 --> 1:02:06.880
<v Speaker 9>haven't used that term since I was a kid. I

1:02:06.960 --> 1:02:09.800
<v Speaker 9>was a kid, and that term was really quite common

1:02:09.800 --> 1:02:12.400
<v Speaker 9>because it went on for years, and it got worse

1:02:12.560 --> 1:02:15.120
<v Speaker 9>well before it got better. It didn't just get better

1:02:15.800 --> 1:02:18.840
<v Speaker 9>and went on for years. Interest rates on holmes went

1:02:18.920 --> 1:02:21.880
<v Speaker 9>up to sixteen percent. My grandparents had to pay to

1:02:21.880 --> 1:02:26.120
<v Speaker 9>buy a home at one point. And so what you're

1:02:26.160 --> 1:02:29.560
<v Speaker 9>seeing is that's the trajectory we're on, and it'll start

1:02:29.600 --> 1:02:32.680
<v Speaker 9>to be called again. I suspect the misery index, maybe

1:02:32.720 --> 1:02:33.960
<v Speaker 9>the Trump misery Index.

1:02:34.480 --> 1:02:37.720
<v Speaker 4>Well, and there were dueling reports in the New York Times,

1:02:37.720 --> 1:02:38.280
<v Speaker 4>the Wall Street Drow.

1:02:38.280 --> 1:02:38.919
<v Speaker 5>They weren't really doing.

1:02:38.960 --> 1:02:42.480
<v Speaker 4>They're basically saying, actually that what the rub is right

1:02:42.520 --> 1:02:46.160
<v Speaker 4>now is Iran has said they will come to the

1:02:46.200 --> 1:02:50.480
<v Speaker 4>table on the straight if Trump agrees to table the

1:02:50.560 --> 1:02:54.360
<v Speaker 4>nuclear negotiations. Donald Trump just last night at the State

1:02:54.400 --> 1:02:59.480
<v Speaker 4>dinner said we have defeated Iran militarily. So, Professor Paip,

1:03:00.000 --> 1:03:01.840
<v Speaker 4>we're all trying to do our best here to learn

1:03:01.920 --> 1:03:05.479
<v Speaker 4>to speak fluent Trumpies and understand what exactly he's saying

1:03:05.520 --> 1:03:09.520
<v Speaker 4>and projecting or attempting to project. So what do you

1:03:09.560 --> 1:03:12.120
<v Speaker 4>make of where these negotiations are right now? Because I

1:03:12.160 --> 1:03:16.240
<v Speaker 4>could see someone saying, Professor Iran is willing to come to.

1:03:16.200 --> 1:03:17.960
<v Speaker 5>The table and reopen the straight.

1:03:18.120 --> 1:03:21.040
<v Speaker 4>Does this not undermine your argument that we are headed

1:03:21.040 --> 1:03:23.200
<v Speaker 4>to a potential catastrophe worse than a round.

1:03:23.240 --> 1:03:27.120
<v Speaker 9>Yes, we just need to peel the a little bit

1:03:27.280 --> 1:03:28.520
<v Speaker 9>under that phrase.

1:03:28.720 --> 1:03:31.000
<v Speaker 10>What does the word open mean?

1:03:31.680 --> 1:03:34.560
<v Speaker 9>And by the way, I'm going to define it the

1:03:34.600 --> 1:03:40.280
<v Speaker 9>way Secretary Rubio did just yesterday, just recently yesterday where

1:03:40.320 --> 1:03:44.600
<v Speaker 9>he explained that what Iran means by the word opening

1:03:44.680 --> 1:03:48.920
<v Speaker 9>the strait is that chips can pass through the strait

1:03:49.400 --> 1:03:53.080
<v Speaker 9>as long as they coordinate with the Iranian military in

1:03:53.200 --> 1:03:58.479
<v Speaker 9>advance and as long as they pay the toll, which

1:03:58.560 --> 1:04:01.400
<v Speaker 9>I believe is currently set imagine to be about two

1:04:01.720 --> 1:04:06.360
<v Speaker 9>million dollars a ship a ship to pass one time.

1:04:07.040 --> 1:04:09.640
<v Speaker 9>So if you have say one hundred ships, that's two

1:04:09.720 --> 1:04:13.840
<v Speaker 9>hundred million dollars a day that Iran would be bringing in.

1:04:14.320 --> 1:04:19.440
<v Speaker 9>That's sixty billion dollars a year. That would be also

1:04:19.720 --> 1:04:24.320
<v Speaker 9>over and above that much or more that Ron would

1:04:24.400 --> 1:04:24.920
<v Speaker 9>make on.

1:04:25.000 --> 1:04:26.200
<v Speaker 10>Selling its own oil.

1:04:26.920 --> 1:04:30.280
<v Speaker 9>So this is why Secretary Rubia, this is not really

1:04:30.320 --> 1:04:34.760
<v Speaker 9>an open This this not open. So what Iran is

1:04:34.840 --> 1:04:38.640
<v Speaker 9>doing is going through it's ten points that it delivered

1:04:38.640 --> 1:04:41.680
<v Speaker 9>to Trump. Remember when we started the ceasefire, Trump agreed

1:04:41.720 --> 1:04:44.680
<v Speaker 9>to the ten point plan as a basis for negotiation.

1:04:45.160 --> 1:04:49.480
<v Speaker 9>All Iran is doing is literally going through the ten points.

1:04:49.800 --> 1:04:52.960
<v Speaker 9>And the first point is they get to keep the

1:04:53.000 --> 1:04:56.840
<v Speaker 9>straight that is, they will they're gonna keep a tight

1:04:56.960 --> 1:05:00.960
<v Speaker 9>fist on the jugular of the world's economy, and they

1:05:01.000 --> 1:05:05.640
<v Speaker 9>will extort costs here from the world, which is two

1:05:05.920 --> 1:05:09.440
<v Speaker 9>million dollars a ship. And then also they want their

1:05:09.440 --> 1:05:14.280
<v Speaker 9>own oil to be sold, and so they're perfectly going

1:05:14.320 --> 1:05:16.840
<v Speaker 9>to be happy at manipulating the price of oil. So

1:05:16.880 --> 1:05:19.760
<v Speaker 9>what also that means just to be also what The

1:05:19.800 --> 1:05:22.960
<v Speaker 9>implication here is is that if Iran wants to keep

1:05:23.000 --> 1:05:24.960
<v Speaker 9>the price of oil at one hundred bucks a barrel,

1:05:25.400 --> 1:05:28.040
<v Speaker 9>they know how to do that. They can regulate what

1:05:28.240 --> 1:05:32.480
<v Speaker 9>happens across the strait. They can optimize, in other words,

1:05:32.960 --> 1:05:38.760
<v Speaker 9>their financial earnings from controlling the Straight. Now, the second

1:05:38.760 --> 1:05:44.960
<v Speaker 9>point is the nuclear negotiation. So notice that before this

1:05:45.560 --> 1:05:49.080
<v Speaker 9>we're kicked off on February twenty eight, Iran and the

1:05:49.160 --> 1:05:53.240
<v Speaker 9>United States, we're in negotiations on the nuclear material. That's

1:05:53.240 --> 1:05:56.440
<v Speaker 9>what was being discussed. What Iran is simply saying is

1:05:56.480 --> 1:05:59.000
<v Speaker 9>that's off the table now. They're just not interested in

1:05:59.040 --> 1:06:01.200
<v Speaker 9>that now. They're not saying at all when that will

1:06:01.200 --> 1:06:05.400
<v Speaker 9>come back. So what that tells me is Iran is

1:06:05.440 --> 1:06:07.880
<v Speaker 9>not giving up this power of the Straight of Horror

1:06:07.880 --> 1:06:12.720
<v Speaker 9>moves anytime soon. And Iran is probably starting to lay

1:06:12.760 --> 1:06:17.360
<v Speaker 9>the groundwork for developing nuclear weapons over the next maybe

1:06:17.480 --> 1:06:21.080
<v Speaker 9>year or so. And that would also dovetail with why

1:06:21.120 --> 1:06:25.240
<v Speaker 9>they're talking with Pakistan, a nuclear weapons state that helped

1:06:25.280 --> 1:06:29.960
<v Speaker 9>Iran with centrifugees have started its program in the first place,

1:06:30.640 --> 1:06:34.800
<v Speaker 9>and also Russia, another nuclear weapons state that's been a

1:06:34.800 --> 1:06:38.920
<v Speaker 9>military ally of Iran. So if Iran is going to

1:06:38.960 --> 1:06:43.400
<v Speaker 9>pursue this very aggressive agenda to truly emerge as the

1:06:43.440 --> 1:06:48.280
<v Speaker 9>fourth center of world power with nuclear weapons. It needs allies,

1:06:48.440 --> 1:06:50.920
<v Speaker 9>and it looks like it's working with its allies, and

1:06:50.960 --> 1:06:53.800
<v Speaker 9>it's certainly working with its allies better than we're working

1:06:53.840 --> 1:06:54.320
<v Speaker 9>with ours.

1:06:54.640 --> 1:06:56.200
<v Speaker 8>Well, well, I think what Iran is saying here is

1:06:56.240 --> 1:06:59.160
<v Speaker 8>that they're not going to discuss the nuclear issue until

1:06:59.240 --> 1:07:01.560
<v Speaker 8>the naval block of the Strait is lifted. But at

1:07:01.560 --> 1:07:04.480
<v Speaker 8>that point, I think there is real willingness to discuss

1:07:04.520 --> 1:07:05.880
<v Speaker 8>it now whether well.

1:07:05.760 --> 1:07:07.920
<v Speaker 9>I would just be I guess we maybe have a

1:07:07.920 --> 1:07:11.760
<v Speaker 9>slight difference of you here. They say if they will

1:07:11.760 --> 1:07:15.800
<v Speaker 9>not enter face to face negotiations with America at all

1:07:16.520 --> 1:07:19.959
<v Speaker 9>unless America lifts the naval blockade. So I think that's

1:07:20.040 --> 1:07:22.360
<v Speaker 9>my understanding of this. Now, you may be right, I

1:07:22.720 --> 1:07:25.080
<v Speaker 9>want to not get into it, but it is the

1:07:25.120 --> 1:07:28.960
<v Speaker 9>case that they've said that now multiple.

1:07:28.520 --> 1:07:30.760
<v Speaker 1>Times and again this.

1:07:31.240 --> 1:07:35.960
<v Speaker 9>Issue of postponing the nuclear negotiations here, I guess I

1:07:36.080 --> 1:07:39.400
<v Speaker 9>just have the view I'm reading it that they really

1:07:39.440 --> 1:07:45.440
<v Speaker 9>are working with others along the trajectory of gaining power.

1:07:45.960 --> 1:07:48.960
<v Speaker 9>And also I just want to point out that this

1:07:49.120 --> 1:07:51.880
<v Speaker 9>is going to have global consequences.

1:07:52.000 --> 1:07:54.560
<v Speaker 10>Even beyond the Iran War.

1:07:54.800 --> 1:07:59.760
<v Speaker 9>So Russia here is going to want something from a

1:08:00.080 --> 1:08:05.480
<v Speaker 9>on and that may be tighter coordination as Russia tries

1:08:05.520 --> 1:08:10.880
<v Speaker 9>to gain power over Europe, not just in the battle

1:08:10.960 --> 1:08:15.880
<v Speaker 9>space of Ukraine and Iran and Russia together control now

1:08:16.000 --> 1:08:19.120
<v Speaker 9>thirty percent of the world's oil, so.

1:08:19.040 --> 1:08:20.639
<v Speaker 10>We need to keep our eye on that.

1:08:20.800 --> 1:08:23.360
<v Speaker 9>And then also we need to look over at Asia,

1:08:23.840 --> 1:08:27.320
<v Speaker 9>so we shouldn't forget that. All the estimates now that

1:08:27.360 --> 1:08:30.439
<v Speaker 9>are coming out of the Pentagon is we have spent

1:08:31.320 --> 1:08:35.759
<v Speaker 9>fifty percent roughly of our patriot arsenal, our that arsenal,

1:08:36.360 --> 1:08:41.760
<v Speaker 9>a number of our very important precision interceptor arsenals, and

1:08:41.800 --> 1:08:48.160
<v Speaker 9>that means we're leaving Taiwan essentially naked here or virtually naked,

1:08:48.840 --> 1:08:52.479
<v Speaker 9>and that opens all kinds of possibilities for President She

1:08:52.920 --> 1:08:58.600
<v Speaker 9>to want some concessions, either tacitly or explicitly vis a

1:08:58.680 --> 1:09:02.760
<v Speaker 9>v US relations with Taiwan. So I just point out

1:09:02.800 --> 1:09:06.400
<v Speaker 9>that this is a when I say Trump, the United

1:09:06.439 --> 1:09:10.000
<v Speaker 9>States has lost control of the Iran War, and it's

1:09:10.040 --> 1:09:15.400
<v Speaker 9>having global implications. It actually has global implications even beyond

1:09:15.560 --> 1:09:19.320
<v Speaker 9>the price of what's happening to the world economy and

1:09:19.360 --> 1:09:21.439
<v Speaker 9>the price of gasoline here at home.

1:09:21.880 --> 1:09:25.160
<v Speaker 8>And on the nuclear point, the trip that Raji took

1:09:25.240 --> 1:09:29.599
<v Speaker 8>to Russia could also you can imagine well in which

1:09:30.720 --> 1:09:32.559
<v Speaker 8>wells to back up in twenty As you know, in

1:09:32.600 --> 1:09:35.760
<v Speaker 8>twenty fifteen, Russia was part of the Iran nuclear deal,

1:09:36.360 --> 1:09:41.240
<v Speaker 8>and Iran, through that deal, agreed to ship and did

1:09:41.280 --> 1:09:44.280
<v Speaker 8>in fact ship. And I don't think most people know this,

1:09:44.800 --> 1:09:50.120
<v Speaker 8>twenty five thousand pounds of enriched uranium to Russia. Let

1:09:50.160 --> 1:09:52.840
<v Speaker 8>me talk if it's okay, and they now less than

1:09:52.880 --> 1:09:54.800
<v Speaker 8>a thousand, but go ahead.

1:09:54.680 --> 1:09:56.679
<v Speaker 9>Let me talk, if it's okay, just for a minute

1:09:56.720 --> 1:10:00.720
<v Speaker 9>about the JCPOA and how it came about, because I'm

1:10:00.760 --> 1:10:03.559
<v Speaker 9>pretty familiar with this, and what of your listeners may

1:10:03.600 --> 1:10:06.160
<v Speaker 9>not know that. Part of the other area I've been

1:10:06.200 --> 1:10:13.439
<v Speaker 9>studying for thirty years is economic pressure, economic sanctions, blockades, etc. Well,

1:10:13.520 --> 1:10:15.840
<v Speaker 9>one of the things it's important to know is that

1:10:16.240 --> 1:10:20.360
<v Speaker 9>the Obama administration had economic sanctions on Iran and then

1:10:20.400 --> 1:10:23.240
<v Speaker 9>we got the nuclear deal. Well, why did that economic

1:10:23.320 --> 1:10:28.800
<v Speaker 9>pressure work? It worked because Russia and China, these are

1:10:28.880 --> 1:10:36.280
<v Speaker 9>the military allies of Iran, joined in that America's coalition

1:10:36.600 --> 1:10:41.680
<v Speaker 9>against Iran. In fact, Russia stops selling their SSAY three

1:10:41.800 --> 1:10:44.599
<v Speaker 9>hundreds to give you a very specific point.

1:10:44.760 --> 1:10:46.479
<v Speaker 10>But then let's back it up a little further.

1:10:46.840 --> 1:10:49.680
<v Speaker 9>Why did Russia do this out of the goodness of

1:10:49.720 --> 1:10:52.240
<v Speaker 9>its heart? Well, in two thousand and eight, I was

1:10:52.320 --> 1:10:56.679
<v Speaker 9>part of Obama's primaries teams, and I had an idea,

1:10:57.640 --> 1:11:00.280
<v Speaker 9>and I was on one team and got my name

1:11:00.280 --> 1:11:02.400
<v Speaker 9>of Sean Kay was on the NATO team, And I

1:11:02.439 --> 1:11:05.280
<v Speaker 9>said to Sean on a phone call, you know the

1:11:05.400 --> 1:11:07.840
<v Speaker 9>number one issue here that we should really worry about

1:11:07.880 --> 1:11:10.040
<v Speaker 9>for the Middle East, because I was on the Middle

1:11:10.040 --> 1:11:13.400
<v Speaker 9>East team, was really a nuclear weapon by Iran. It

1:11:13.400 --> 1:11:16.120
<v Speaker 9>would set off all kinds of issues. But in order

1:11:16.200 --> 1:11:19.200
<v Speaker 9>to stop it, we need Russia because if you could

1:11:19.200 --> 1:11:22.479
<v Speaker 9>get the military ally of Iran on board.

1:11:22.720 --> 1:11:25.520
<v Speaker 10>But how do you do that? We should trade.

1:11:25.600 --> 1:11:29.400
<v Speaker 9>Missile defense US missile defense in Eastern Europe to get

1:11:29.520 --> 1:11:35.439
<v Speaker 9>Russia's concession to go along with Obama's plan to get

1:11:35.439 --> 1:11:39.960
<v Speaker 9>a counterbalancing coalition against Iran. Well that's exactly what Obama did.

1:11:40.280 --> 1:11:42.960
<v Speaker 9>So Sean wrote that up, send it up the chain

1:11:43.040 --> 1:11:45.200
<v Speaker 9>on the NATO team, and well.

1:11:45.000 --> 1:11:48.880
<v Speaker 10>And behold, Obama wins. And what does he do.

1:11:49.240 --> 1:11:54.640
<v Speaker 9>He trades directly with putin US national missile defense to

1:11:54.680 --> 1:11:59.840
<v Speaker 9>get Putin's work. I mean agreement to be part of

1:11:59.880 --> 1:12:04.000
<v Speaker 9>the coalition against Iran, and that's how you've got the JCPOA.

1:12:04.000 --> 1:12:08.400
<v Speaker 9>That's actually now, how would you recreate that? Well, that

1:12:08.479 --> 1:12:13.320
<v Speaker 9>means the United States would have to really give major

1:12:13.479 --> 1:12:15.559
<v Speaker 9>concessions here to Putin.

1:12:16.000 --> 1:12:17.840
<v Speaker 10>What would those concessions look like?

1:12:18.720 --> 1:12:21.680
<v Speaker 9>They would have to be much more than simply don't

1:12:22.240 --> 1:12:26.280
<v Speaker 9>send aid to Ukraine because that's already going way down.

1:12:26.680 --> 1:12:30.040
<v Speaker 9>You're probably going to have to work to undermine European

1:12:30.280 --> 1:12:34.479
<v Speaker 9>support for Ukraine in a direct way if you want

1:12:34.520 --> 1:12:38.879
<v Speaker 9>Putin here to even think about the idea of joining

1:12:38.880 --> 1:12:41.519
<v Speaker 9>the naval blockade, and what we would be talking about

1:12:41.800 --> 1:12:44.760
<v Speaker 9>would be Putin sending a Russian ship to join the

1:12:44.880 --> 1:12:49.080
<v Speaker 9>US naval blockade. Now, that would change things. But this

1:12:49.160 --> 1:12:51.559
<v Speaker 9>is the level at which we're talking about. We're not

1:12:51.680 --> 1:12:56.479
<v Speaker 9>talking about minor cosmetic issues. That's not what brought Russia

1:12:56.560 --> 1:12:59.559
<v Speaker 9>in with Obama, and that's not what's going to bring

1:12:59.640 --> 1:13:03.599
<v Speaker 9>Russia in to help with this situation. They're simply not

1:13:03.640 --> 1:13:07.680
<v Speaker 9>going to bail out the United States because Russia. Levrof

1:13:07.720 --> 1:13:10.679
<v Speaker 9>just gave this big speech a few days ago where

1:13:10.680 --> 1:13:14.400
<v Speaker 9>he explained that from Russia's perspective, they're at war against

1:13:14.400 --> 1:13:16.400
<v Speaker 9>the West. Well, what do you do when you're at war?

1:13:16.520 --> 1:13:20.240
<v Speaker 9>You want to crush your opposition. And now you have

1:13:20.320 --> 1:13:24.080
<v Speaker 9>Iran in Russia meeting. What are they talking about. I

1:13:24.120 --> 1:13:27.840
<v Speaker 9>think they're talking about how to do things against their

1:13:27.920 --> 1:13:28.759
<v Speaker 9>common enemy.

1:13:30.360 --> 1:13:34.799
<v Speaker 1>Sounds right, Professor Pape, always a pleasure. Thank you spoking,

1:13:35.000 --> 1:13:35.439
<v Speaker 1>and I'm.

1:13:35.280 --> 1:13:37.479
<v Speaker 9>Sorry I don't give you a very many ways out

1:13:37.479 --> 1:13:39.240
<v Speaker 9>of the escalation trap.

1:13:39.080 --> 1:13:39.639
<v Speaker 5>To the point.

1:13:41.320 --> 1:13:45.360
<v Speaker 4>Glad, that's right, that's right, and the escalation trap is

1:13:45.400 --> 1:13:48.280
<v Speaker 4>over on sub stack. You can follow Professor PAP's work there.

1:13:48.560 --> 1:13:49.599
<v Speaker 4>Thank you so much again.

1:13:49.680 --> 1:13:51.320
<v Speaker 10>Professor Yeah, thank you very much.

1:13:51.400 --> 1:13:55.920
<v Speaker 9>Always a pleasure and very smart questions and interjections, very smart.

1:13:56.320 --> 1:13:59.200
<v Speaker 5>Ryan will take it right, Thank.

1:13:59.000 --> 1:14:00.759
<v Speaker 10>You, bye bye.

1:14:01.479 --> 1:14:01.639
<v Speaker 1>Ran.

1:14:01.680 --> 1:14:04.400
<v Speaker 4>I think what we've learned today is that you run

1:14:04.800 --> 1:14:06.599
<v Speaker 4>guest segments like a Trump cabinet.

1:14:06.600 --> 1:14:10.920
<v Speaker 1>Me start with a lot of praise and continue the

1:14:10.960 --> 1:14:11.760
<v Speaker 1>praise throughout it.

1:14:11.920 --> 1:14:12.160
<v Speaker 5>Yep.

1:14:12.280 --> 1:14:13.200
<v Speaker 1>Then the interview is going to.

1:14:13.200 --> 1:14:16.679
<v Speaker 4>Go well, the praise is its own escalation trap, right

1:14:16.760 --> 1:14:17.679
<v Speaker 4>once you start.

1:14:19.520 --> 1:14:23.160
<v Speaker 1>Ry, well, you were an incredible interview or.

1:14:23.520 --> 1:14:27.880
<v Speaker 4>You know, questions smart question I mean I have to

1:14:27.920 --> 1:14:29.400
<v Speaker 4>agree your questions are very smart.

1:14:29.439 --> 1:14:36.880
<v Speaker 8>So and we have the greatest comments, so our YouTube commenters, nobody.

1:14:36.320 --> 1:14:39.800
<v Speaker 4>Smarter, greatest everything all around. Well, thank you everyone for

1:14:39.920 --> 1:14:42.360
<v Speaker 4>tuning in today. As a reminder, Ryan's going to be

1:14:42.840 --> 1:14:44.559
<v Speaker 4>live in a debate with Scott Jennings on the After

1:14:44.560 --> 1:14:48.400
<v Speaker 4>Party Channel tonight nine pm on Yeah It's it's an

1:14:48.400 --> 1:14:50.599
<v Speaker 4>interesting one. The students had great questions. Actually, it would

1:14:50.600 --> 1:14:52.000
<v Speaker 4>have been great if the students just asked you guys

1:14:52.120 --> 1:14:54.000
<v Speaker 4>questions for like two hours. That would have been wild.

1:14:54.600 --> 1:14:57.280
<v Speaker 4>But anyway, Breakingpoints dot coms where you can go to

1:14:57.320 --> 1:15:00.840
<v Speaker 4>get a premium subscription. Otherwise, Chris and Soccer, we'll see

1:15:00.880 --> 1:15:13.720
<v Speaker 4>you back here tomorrow. We'll see you Friday.