Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Well begin this out with stocks extending their sell off
Speaker 2: as President Donald Trump's push to take control of Greenland
Speaker 2: is sending fresh volatility into markets worldwide. The IBM Vice
Speaker 2: chairman and former Any Seat director Gary Cohne joined us
Speaker 2: Now for more. Carrie, good to see you, good, Thanks
Speaker 2: for having me. Hey, you had the weybeup in the program.
Speaker 2: There seem to be a concrete ideology when you were
Speaker 2: alongside the president in his first term or how would
Speaker 2: you describe this moment? What is this all about?
Speaker 3: No one knows for sure, but I think what we've
Speaker 3: seen evolve in the Trump presidency is this desire to
Speaker 3: negotiate and get a deal.
Speaker 1: So ultimately is Greenland all about getting a deal.
Speaker 3: We know that the North Atlantic is becoming much more
Speaker 3: of a sought after territory from a military stic standpoint,
Speaker 3: so I understand the presidence concern to have a military
Speaker 3: presence and protection of the North Atlantic is if we
Speaker 3: want to expand our air defense. Is Greenland is a
Speaker 3: pretty strategic spot, so I understand what the President's interest is.
Speaker 1: They also have rarers, which is.
Speaker 3: Something that we in the United States can't supply to ourselves.
Speaker 3: So the question is is this a negotiating posture to
Speaker 3: get a deal with Greenland, to get more rarers, to
Speaker 3: get a larger naval and air force presence, and it
Speaker 3: maybe it does seem like that's on the table and
Speaker 3: this may all evolve in a place where the United
Speaker 3: States ends up in a very good strategic position.
Speaker 2: Do you think that's the way the business world sees
Speaker 2: it coming into the world eCOM before him this week?
Speaker 3: You know, I think the business world's split on it.
Speaker 3: You know, you've he's got a European presence here in
Speaker 3: the US presence here. I think the US presence is
Speaker 3: a little bit more optimistic that this is going to
Speaker 3: end in the right place, and we've seen this before.
Speaker 3: I think the European contingency is a little more leary
Speaker 3: and say, look, you.
Speaker 1: Know, maybe you're confident this ends well. We don't like
Speaker 1: being in the middle of this right now, which is a.
Speaker 4: Reason why in European hours treasures are selling off much
Speaker 4: more of the dollar was much lower, and as the
Speaker 4: US wakes up, people are.
Speaker 1: Coming in and buying it.
Speaker 4: How much is the sell America trade real and how
Speaker 4: much is it a perception based on these moments, the
Speaker 4: ones that we saw.
Speaker 1: On Liberation Day, there is some sell America going on
Speaker 1: right now.
Speaker 3: I've met with a couple of different asset managers this morning,
Speaker 3: so that global funds are reallocating a little bit out
Speaker 3: of the United States.
Speaker 1: So you see that.
Speaker 3: You know, interest rates are higher, so people selling bonds
Speaker 3: rates go higher. People are repatriating currency back home. They're
Speaker 3: selling dollars to buy local currency, they're selling stock market
Speaker 3: they've got to repatriate currency.
Speaker 1: So I think we're seeing a little bit of that.
Speaker 3: I don't think that's what's driving the overall market right now.
Speaker 3: It doesn't feel like we've got a liquidate in America.
Speaker 3: It feels like we've got a trim around the edges
Speaker 3: in asset allocation models going on.
Speaker 4: This goes back to the wrestling match we were describing
Speaker 4: AI on one side. You've got politics on the other,
Speaker 4: and they're facing off and sort of sell America until
Speaker 4: AI rears its head miss get into the lead.
Speaker 3: And that's where we're sell America until the light turns
Speaker 3: green and everyone has to buy America. Because in the
Speaker 3: real reality, if you look at the US economy, what's
Speaker 3: going on. We've got one of the strongest economies.
Speaker 1: In the world today. You know, we're growing at five
Speaker 1: plus percent and growth.
Speaker 3: You know, we've got a pretty good tail wind going
Speaker 3: on behind us. I mean, right now, the only thing
Speaker 3: stopping is all this geopolitical risk. If and when, and
Speaker 3: I say, when this geopolitical risk settles down, the market's
Speaker 3: probably going to take off again.
Speaker 1: That's been the history of this pattern.
Speaker 5: Settles down Gary. Two and a half weeks ago, we
Speaker 5: captured Nicholas Medora.
Speaker 1: It feels like a decade ago.
Speaker 5: Now we're sitting in Davos talking about Greenland. You think
Speaker 5: you to settle down under administration two.
Speaker 3: Weeks Yeah, we're going to settle down. I think that
Speaker 3: there's a.
Speaker 1: There's a couple of balls up in the air right now.
Speaker 1: But you know, this two show pass.
Speaker 3: We can go back in the last eight twelve years,
Speaker 3: and there's been periods of time where we've had these,
Speaker 3: you know, highly volatile geopolitical moments. We're in a highly
Speaker 3: valuable geopolitical moment right now. And by the way, I'm
Speaker 3: not sure it's a coincidence that Davlas is right in
Speaker 3: the middle.
Speaker 5: All right, interesting, I want to ask you about the
Speaker 5: FED chair race, because you are in the room with
Speaker 5: the president in Trump won when he decided to go
Speaker 5: for J.
Speaker 2: Powell.
Speaker 5: What kind of questions do you think he's lobbing at
Speaker 5: these individuals and in the end, who do you think
Speaker 5: is going to come down to?
Speaker 1: Look, the President's in an enviable position right now.
Speaker 3: He's got what we know, He's got four really highly
Speaker 3: qualified candidates.
Speaker 1: Any one of those four could do a really good
Speaker 1: job in there.
Speaker 3: I think the President at this point is trying to
Speaker 3: understand the sort of mindset of the person he's going
Speaker 3: to put into the position. The President clearly has a
Speaker 3: view on what interest rate policy should be. The problem
Speaker 3: or the opportunity with the fat job is once he
Speaker 3: appoints someone into that job, they're an independent agency and
Speaker 3: he loses.
Speaker 1: His day to day contact with that person.
Speaker 3: So I think the president learned in the first administration
Speaker 3: that it's very important to who he puts in that
Speaker 3: job and that he should make sure that he's very
Speaker 3: comfortable with their policy mandate before he appoints them.
Speaker 2: Do you think it's become even more important now that
Speaker 2: that individual needs to have the ability to persuade the
Speaker 2: rest of the committee in a way that maybe a
Speaker 2: few years ago that wasn't as relevant. There's just a
Speaker 2: sense on Wall Street that the president's approach in the
Speaker 2: last twelve months has galvanized the rest of the committee
Speaker 2: to dig in.
Speaker 3: Look, I think the committee structure is going to be
Speaker 3: the committee structure. I'm not sure if the chairperson can
Speaker 3: ultimately sway the committee that far. Could they sway one
Speaker 3: vote or two votes potentially? But you've got some very
Speaker 3: strong regional bank presidents. You've got some very strong governors
Speaker 3: in the FED. I think the FED, ultimately, at the
Speaker 3: end of the day, is going to be a tough
Speaker 3: group to persuade. I think they'll come out in the
Speaker 3: right place. I mean, historically the FED has done a
Speaker 3: very good job.
Speaker 1: Have they been a little bit late?
Speaker 3: Yeah, they were late in the transitory inflationary problem of.
Speaker 1: COVID, but they've caught up. They've gotten to the right place.
Speaker 3: I think if you look at the FED through the cycle,
Speaker 3: they end up getting to the right place.
Speaker 2: You were diplomatic about the four candidates. Can I just
Speaker 2: talk about some of them individually? You can, Governor Chris
Speaker 2: wall You can too, Governor Chris Waller. I believe you
Speaker 2: were part of that process, right, Vice check clarity. You
Speaker 2: were part of that process too. What was the president's
Speaker 2: approach to that process back then? Was he as involved
Speaker 2: as he appears to be now?
Speaker 1: He was not as involved then.
Speaker 3: But you remember he was a first term president who
Speaker 3: was an outsider to Washington.
Speaker 1: That was part of his mystique.
Speaker 3: As he was an outsider to Washington, he knew he
Speaker 3: had to put someone into the FED char's role, and.
Speaker 1: He approached it.
Speaker 3: But I think now, understanding the importance of interest rate
Speaker 3: policy and understanding his view of interest rate policy, he's
Speaker 3: taking considerably more time talking to the navarious candidate.
Speaker 2: I asked you a question might get even trouble. Is
Speaker 2: Kevin washer chameleon?
Speaker 1: Is he a hawk?
Speaker 2: Is he a dove? Is he whatever it takes to
Speaker 2: get the job? Why didn't you get the job last time?
Speaker 1: Look, Kevin is highly qualified, without doubt.
Speaker 3: Kevin has served in the FED without a doubt. Kevin
Speaker 3: was there during some of the toughest days of the
Speaker 3: FED during the financial crisis. Was dealing with Kevin on
Speaker 3: an hourly basis as we were trying to figure out
Speaker 3: what was going on in the United States financials system.
Speaker 3: Kevin was an active participant in the outcome that we
Speaker 3: all benefited from, and without Kevin's wisdom, I'm not sure
Speaker 3: we would have ended up in the same place. He's
Speaker 3: a highly qualified candidate.
Speaker 2: It sounds like the four that's who you'd like to
Speaker 2: stay in the seat. Based on that strong defense of
Speaker 2: Kevin Wolf.
Speaker 3: I think Kevin hasse It's a great quality candidate. I
Speaker 3: worked with Kevin Hasset when I was in the White House.
Speaker 1: He was the CEA director, Show your thoughts, Kevin. Kevin
Speaker 1: Hasseid was an excellent CEA.
Speaker 2: Let me tell you what some people say about Kevin Hasseid,
Speaker 2: But if he's appointed, that's a puppet of the President
Speaker 2: of the United States who'll sit there, smile and do
Speaker 2: whatever it takes.
Speaker 1: Is that unfair? You know?
Speaker 3: You and I both know whoever gets appointed, there will
Speaker 3: be people that are disappointed and will.
Speaker 1: Have negative things to say about him.
Speaker 3: On the flip side, there will be people that'll be
Speaker 3: very happy with whoever one of those four gets appointed.
Speaker 3: And if it's if it's a fifth candidate we haven't
Speaker 3: seen yet, they'll be equally as happy.
Speaker 1: With that one.
Speaker 4: There is a sense of whoever's going to be there
Speaker 4: they're going to cut rates. How much is the entire
Speaker 4: build out of AI, which is what you spend most
Speaker 4: of your time time talking about here, based on the
Speaker 4: idea that the FED is going to be easy policy no.
Speaker 3: Matter what the AI buildout in rates their link, but
Speaker 3: they're not in a strictly link.
Speaker 1: This AI buildout.
Speaker 3: Is being built because there's demand, there's forward demand, and
Speaker 3: the AI companies feel like they are behind the curve
Speaker 3: and being able to facilitate the needs of their clients.
Speaker 1: They are going to build these data centers.
Speaker 3: The only question that rates have is what is the
Speaker 3: ultimate all in cost to build these things?
Speaker 1: And interest rates are going to be important.
Speaker 3: These are big, huge capex expenditures with thirty year lives,
Speaker 3: so you know the amount of interest you're going to
Speaker 3: pay to finance win these centers is important. So twenty
Speaker 3: five or fifty basis points has a lot to do
Speaker 3: with these decisions. But I will caution you, like I
Speaker 3: always do, the FED only controls FED funds. They control
Speaker 3: overnight rates. You've been talking all morning about the tenure,
Speaker 3: the ten years at four to thirty where these data
Speaker 3: centers are going to be financed. They're going to be
Speaker 3: financed to the medium to the long to the very
Speaker 3: long end of the curve. It's going to be a
Speaker 3: combination of duration. FED funds is not going to affect that,
Speaker 3: So FED funds could possibly go down.
Speaker 1: In the interest rate to financing, a data set could
Speaker 1: be unchanged.
Speaker 2: Do you miss the trident floor?
Speaker 1: Of course you missed the trading floor.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I missed the tread and floor. Can you imagine
Speaker 2: how scary things were back at GOLM back in the day.
Speaker 2: But that's when the first year round list. Gary's walking
Speaker 2: the trident floor.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that you have.
Speaker 3: But John, that's when they really were trading floors, Like
Speaker 3: you actually stood up and talked on phones and smoked
Speaker 3: each other.
Speaker 1: And did it prepare now now it's machines. Now it's machines.
Speaker 5: Did it prepare you for the West Wing?
Speaker 1: It did? It? Did it very much? Did in what way? Gary?
Speaker 1: Just I think.
Speaker 3: The ability to be watching five different things going on
Speaker 3: at the same time and be listening in five places.
Speaker 3: People in the in the in the White House were
Speaker 3: always amazed that I could be like having conversation over
Speaker 3: here and talking to someone behind me because I heard
Speaker 3: them talking. But when you grew up in a trading floor,
Speaker 3: and you grew up in a trading environment. Your eyes
Speaker 3: and ears have to see everything.
Speaker 2: With one im JG booze this morning as well. Yeah,
Speaker 2: thank you, it's good to see it. Thank you, thanks
Speaker 2: for sharing somebody for experience. That was Gary Cone there,
Speaker 2: the IBM Vice Chairman,