WEBVTT - Gary Cohn Talks Fed Chair, US Economy

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Well begin this out with stocks extending their sell off

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<v Speaker 2>as President Donald Trump's push to take control of Greenland

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<v Speaker 2>is sending fresh volatility into markets worldwide. The IBM Vice

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<v Speaker 2>chairman and former Any Seat director Gary Cohne joined us

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<v Speaker 2>Now for more. Carrie, good to see you, good, Thanks

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<v Speaker 2>for having me. Hey, you had the weybeup in the program.

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<v Speaker 2>There seem to be a concrete ideology when you were

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<v Speaker 2>alongside the president in his first term or how would

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<v Speaker 2>you describe this moment? What is this all about?

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<v Speaker 3>No one knows for sure, but I think what we've

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<v Speaker 3>seen evolve in the Trump presidency is this desire to

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<v Speaker 3>negotiate and get a deal.

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<v Speaker 1>So ultimately is Greenland all about getting a deal.

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<v Speaker 3>We know that the North Atlantic is becoming much more

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<v Speaker 3>of a sought after territory from a military stic standpoint,

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<v Speaker 3>so I understand the presidence concern to have a military

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<v Speaker 3>presence and protection of the North Atlantic is if we

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<v Speaker 3>want to expand our air defense. Is Greenland is a

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<v Speaker 3>pretty strategic spot, so I understand what the President's interest is.

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<v Speaker 1>They also have rarers, which is.

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<v Speaker 3>Something that we in the United States can't supply to ourselves.

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<v Speaker 3>So the question is is this a negotiating posture to

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<v Speaker 3>get a deal with Greenland, to get more rarers, to

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<v Speaker 3>get a larger naval and air force presence, and it

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<v Speaker 3>maybe it does seem like that's on the table and

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<v Speaker 3>this may all evolve in a place where the United

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<v Speaker 3>States ends up in a very good strategic position.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you think that's the way the business world sees

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<v Speaker 2>it coming into the world eCOM before him this week?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, I think the business world's split on it.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, you've he's got a European presence here in

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<v Speaker 3>the US presence here. I think the US presence is

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<v Speaker 3>a little bit more optimistic that this is going to

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<v Speaker 3>end in the right place, and we've seen this before.

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<v Speaker 3>I think the European contingency is a little more leary

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<v Speaker 3>and say, look, you.

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<v Speaker 1>Know, maybe you're confident this ends well. We don't like

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<v Speaker 1>being in the middle of this right now, which is a.

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<v Speaker 4>Reason why in European hours treasures are selling off much

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<v Speaker 4>more of the dollar was much lower, and as the

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<v Speaker 4>US wakes up, people are.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming in and buying it.

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<v Speaker 4>How much is the sell America trade real and how

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<v Speaker 4>much is it a perception based on these moments, the

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<v Speaker 4>ones that we saw.

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<v Speaker 1>On Liberation Day, there is some sell America going on

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<v Speaker 1>right now.

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<v Speaker 3>I've met with a couple of different asset managers this morning,

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<v Speaker 3>so that global funds are reallocating a little bit out

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<v Speaker 3>of the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>So you see that.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, interest rates are higher, so people selling bonds

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<v Speaker 3>rates go higher. People are repatriating currency back home. They're

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<v Speaker 3>selling dollars to buy local currency, they're selling stock market

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<v Speaker 3>they've got to repatriate currency.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think we're seeing a little bit of that.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think that's what's driving the overall market right now.

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<v Speaker 3>It doesn't feel like we've got a liquidate in America.

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<v Speaker 3>It feels like we've got a trim around the edges

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<v Speaker 3>in asset allocation models going on.

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<v Speaker 4>This goes back to the wrestling match we were describing

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<v Speaker 4>AI on one side. You've got politics on the other,

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<v Speaker 4>and they're facing off and sort of sell America until

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<v Speaker 4>AI rears its head miss get into the lead.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's where we're sell America until the light turns

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<v Speaker 3>green and everyone has to buy America. Because in the

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<v Speaker 3>real reality, if you look at the US economy, what's

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<v Speaker 3>going on. We've got one of the strongest economies.

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<v Speaker 1>In the world today. You know, we're growing at five

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<v Speaker 1>plus percent and growth.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, we've got a pretty good tail wind going

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<v Speaker 3>on behind us. I mean, right now, the only thing

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<v Speaker 3>stopping is all this geopolitical risk. If and when, and

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<v Speaker 3>I say, when this geopolitical risk settles down, the market's

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<v Speaker 3>probably going to take off again.

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<v Speaker 1>That's been the history of this pattern.

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<v Speaker 5>Settles down Gary. Two and a half weeks ago, we

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<v Speaker 5>captured Nicholas Medora.

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<v Speaker 1>It feels like a decade ago.

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<v Speaker 5>Now we're sitting in Davos talking about Greenland. You think

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<v Speaker 5>you to settle down under administration two.

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<v Speaker 3>Weeks Yeah, we're going to settle down. I think that

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<v Speaker 3>there's a.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a couple of balls up in the air right now.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, this two show pass.

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<v Speaker 3>We can go back in the last eight twelve years,

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<v Speaker 3>and there's been periods of time where we've had these,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, highly volatile geopolitical moments. We're in a highly

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<v Speaker 3>valuable geopolitical moment right now. And by the way, I'm

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<v Speaker 3>not sure it's a coincidence that Davlas is right in

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<v Speaker 3>the middle.

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<v Speaker 5>All right, interesting, I want to ask you about the

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<v Speaker 5>FED chair race, because you are in the room with

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<v Speaker 5>the president in Trump won when he decided to go

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<v Speaker 5>for J.

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<v Speaker 2>Powell.

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<v Speaker 5>What kind of questions do you think he's lobbing at

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<v Speaker 5>these individuals and in the end, who do you think

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<v Speaker 5>is going to come down to?

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<v Speaker 1>Look, the President's in an enviable position right now.

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<v Speaker 3>He's got what we know, He's got four really highly

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<v Speaker 3>qualified candidates.

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<v Speaker 1>Any one of those four could do a really good

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<v Speaker 1>job in there.

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<v Speaker 3>I think the President at this point is trying to

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<v Speaker 3>understand the sort of mindset of the person he's going

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<v Speaker 3>to put into the position. The President clearly has a

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<v Speaker 3>view on what interest rate policy should be. The problem

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<v Speaker 3>or the opportunity with the fat job is once he

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<v Speaker 3>appoints someone into that job, they're an independent agency and

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<v Speaker 3>he loses.

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<v Speaker 1>His day to day contact with that person.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think the president learned in the first administration

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<v Speaker 3>that it's very important to who he puts in that

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<v Speaker 3>job and that he should make sure that he's very

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<v Speaker 3>comfortable with their policy mandate before he appoints them.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you think it's become even more important now that

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<v Speaker 2>that individual needs to have the ability to persuade the

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<v Speaker 2>rest of the committee in a way that maybe a

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<v Speaker 2>few years ago that wasn't as relevant. There's just a

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<v Speaker 2>sense on Wall Street that the president's approach in the

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<v Speaker 2>last twelve months has galvanized the rest of the committee

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<v Speaker 2>to dig in.

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<v Speaker 3>Look, I think the committee structure is going to be

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<v Speaker 3>the committee structure. I'm not sure if the chairperson can

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<v Speaker 3>ultimately sway the committee that far. Could they sway one

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<v Speaker 3>vote or two votes potentially? But you've got some very

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<v Speaker 3>strong regional bank presidents. You've got some very strong governors

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<v Speaker 3>in the FED. I think the FED, ultimately, at the

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<v Speaker 3>end of the day, is going to be a tough

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<v Speaker 3>group to persuade. I think they'll come out in the

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<v Speaker 3>right place. I mean, historically the FED has done a

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<v Speaker 3>very good job.

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<v Speaker 1>Have they been a little bit late?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, they were late in the transitory inflationary problem of.

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<v Speaker 1>COVID, but they've caught up. They've gotten to the right place.

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<v Speaker 3>I think if you look at the FED through the cycle,

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<v Speaker 3>they end up getting to the right place.

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<v Speaker 2>You were diplomatic about the four candidates. Can I just

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<v Speaker 2>talk about some of them individually? You can, Governor Chris

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<v Speaker 2>wall You can too, Governor Chris Waller. I believe you

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<v Speaker 2>were part of that process, right, Vice check clarity. You

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<v Speaker 2>were part of that process too. What was the president's

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<v Speaker 2>approach to that process back then? Was he as involved

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<v Speaker 2>as he appears to be now?

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<v Speaker 1>He was not as involved then.

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<v Speaker 3>But you remember he was a first term president who

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<v Speaker 3>was an outsider to Washington.

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<v Speaker 1>That was part of his mystique.

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<v Speaker 3>As he was an outsider to Washington, he knew he

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<v Speaker 3>had to put someone into the FED char's role, and.

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<v Speaker 1>He approached it.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think now, understanding the importance of interest rate

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<v Speaker 3>policy and understanding his view of interest rate policy, he's

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<v Speaker 3>taking considerably more time talking to the navarious candidate.

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<v Speaker 2>I asked you a question might get even trouble. Is

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<v Speaker 2>Kevin washer chameleon?

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<v Speaker 1>Is he a hawk?

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<v Speaker 2>Is he a dove? Is he whatever it takes to

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<v Speaker 2>get the job? Why didn't you get the job last time?

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<v Speaker 1>Look, Kevin is highly qualified, without doubt.

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<v Speaker 3>Kevin has served in the FED without a doubt. Kevin

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<v Speaker 3>was there during some of the toughest days of the

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<v Speaker 3>FED during the financial crisis. Was dealing with Kevin on

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<v Speaker 3>an hourly basis as we were trying to figure out

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<v Speaker 3>what was going on in the United States financials system.

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<v Speaker 3>Kevin was an active participant in the outcome that we

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<v Speaker 3>all benefited from, and without Kevin's wisdom, I'm not sure

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<v Speaker 3>we would have ended up in the same place. He's

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<v Speaker 3>a highly qualified candidate.

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<v Speaker 2>It sounds like the four that's who you'd like to

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<v Speaker 2>stay in the seat. Based on that strong defense of

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<v Speaker 2>Kevin Wolf.

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<v Speaker 3>I think Kevin hasse It's a great quality candidate. I

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<v Speaker 3>worked with Kevin Hasset when I was in the White House.

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<v Speaker 1>He was the CEA director, Show your thoughts, Kevin. Kevin

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<v Speaker 1>Hasseid was an excellent CEA.

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<v Speaker 2>Let me tell you what some people say about Kevin Hasseid,

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<v Speaker 2>But if he's appointed, that's a puppet of the President

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<v Speaker 2>of the United States who'll sit there, smile and do

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<v Speaker 2>whatever it takes.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that unfair? You know?

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<v Speaker 3>You and I both know whoever gets appointed, there will

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<v Speaker 3>be people that are disappointed and will.

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<v Speaker 1>Have negative things to say about him.

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<v Speaker 3>On the flip side, there will be people that'll be

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<v Speaker 3>very happy with whoever one of those four gets appointed.

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<v Speaker 3>And if it's if it's a fifth candidate we haven't

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<v Speaker 3>seen yet, they'll be equally as happy.

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<v Speaker 1>With that one.

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<v Speaker 4>There is a sense of whoever's going to be there

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<v Speaker 4>they're going to cut rates. How much is the entire

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<v Speaker 4>build out of AI, which is what you spend most

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<v Speaker 4>of your time time talking about here, based on the

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<v Speaker 4>idea that the FED is going to be easy policy no.

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<v Speaker 3>Matter what the AI buildout in rates their link, but

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<v Speaker 3>they're not in a strictly link.

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<v Speaker 1>This AI buildout.

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<v Speaker 3>Is being built because there's demand, there's forward demand, and

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<v Speaker 3>the AI companies feel like they are behind the curve

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<v Speaker 3>and being able to facilitate the needs of their clients.

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<v Speaker 1>They are going to build these data centers.

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<v Speaker 3>The only question that rates have is what is the

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<v Speaker 3>ultimate all in cost to build these things?

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<v Speaker 1>And interest rates are going to be important.

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<v Speaker 3>These are big, huge capex expenditures with thirty year lives,

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<v Speaker 3>so you know the amount of interest you're going to

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<v Speaker 3>pay to finance win these centers is important. So twenty

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<v Speaker 3>five or fifty basis points has a lot to do

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<v Speaker 3>with these decisions. But I will caution you, like I

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<v Speaker 3>always do, the FED only controls FED funds. They control

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<v Speaker 3>overnight rates. You've been talking all morning about the tenure,

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<v Speaker 3>the ten years at four to thirty where these data

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<v Speaker 3>centers are going to be financed. They're going to be

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<v Speaker 3>financed to the medium to the long to the very

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<v Speaker 3>long end of the curve. It's going to be a

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<v Speaker 3>combination of duration. FED funds is not going to affect that,

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<v Speaker 3>So FED funds could possibly go down.

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<v Speaker 1>In the interest rate to financing, a data set could

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<v Speaker 1>be unchanged.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you miss the trident floor?

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<v Speaker 1>Of course you missed the trading floor.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I missed the tread and floor. Can you imagine

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<v Speaker 2>how scary things were back at GOLM back in the day.

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<v Speaker 2>But that's when the first year round list. Gary's walking

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<v Speaker 2>the trident floor.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think that you have.

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<v Speaker 3>But John, that's when they really were trading floors, Like

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<v Speaker 3>you actually stood up and talked on phones and smoked

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<v Speaker 3>each other.

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<v Speaker 1>And did it prepare now now it's machines. Now it's machines.

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<v Speaker 5>Did it prepare you for the West Wing?

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<v Speaker 1>It did? It? Did it very much? Did in what way? Gary?

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<v Speaker 1>Just I think.

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<v Speaker 3>The ability to be watching five different things going on

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<v Speaker 3>at the same time and be listening in five places.

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<v Speaker 3>People in the in the in the White House were

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<v Speaker 3>always amazed that I could be like having conversation over

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<v Speaker 3>here and talking to someone behind me because I heard

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<v Speaker 3>them talking. But when you grew up in a trading floor,

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<v Speaker 3>and you grew up in a trading environment. Your eyes

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<v Speaker 3>and ears have to see everything.

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<v Speaker 2>With one im JG booze this morning as well. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you, it's good to see it. Thank you, thanks

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<v Speaker 2>for sharing somebody for experience. That was Gary Cone there,

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<v Speaker 2>the IBM Vice Chairman,