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Speaker 1: All right, welcome to tonight. You're at the volume hoop
Speaker 1: all of you guys. They're having a great week today.
Speaker 1: We are going through our contender rankings like we do
Speaker 1: every single year. Usually we have Sam Vassini on, but
Speaker 1: we had a scheduling conflict this week and we couldn't
Speaker 1: make it work, but I still wanted to give you
Speaker 1: guys my contender rankings before the playoffs starts. So today
Speaker 1: we're gonna be listing the top ten contenders in the NBA,
Speaker 1: and then I have about five or six little kind
Speaker 1: of like follow up points to make about why I
Speaker 1: have teams ranked in specific spots, so you guys can
Speaker 1: understand my reasoning. You guys are the jow before we
Speaker 1: get started, subscribe to the Hoops and O YouTube channels.
Speaker 1: You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Underscore JCNLTS. You guys don't miss you announcements.
Speaker 1: So forget about a podcast feed wherever you get your
Speaker 1: podcasts under Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you
Speaker 1: leave a rating in a review on that front. We
Speaker 1: also have social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook
Speaker 1: where Jackson's doing incredible work this year. Make sure you
Speaker 1: guys follow us there and the last not at least
Speaker 1: kee dropping mail back questions and YouTube comments so we
Speaker 1: can keep getting to them throughout the remainder of the season.
Speaker 1: So upfront, important context, This is not just a ranking
Speaker 1: of the best teams in the NBA. There are teams
Speaker 1: that I have on this list that are lower than
Speaker 1: teams that I don't think are as good at basketball
Speaker 1: as them. However, the sole purpose of this list is
Speaker 1: to rank the teams based on what I think is
Speaker 1: their chance to win the title. So matchups can play
Speaker 1: a role, which conference you're in, health can play a role,
Speaker 1: So many different things can go into it can be
Speaker 1: factored in when we're talking about strictly hoisting the trophy. Now,
Speaker 1: about a week ago, I did a list for the
Speaker 1: Nerd Sash guys. This is what it looked like at
Speaker 1: that point in time. Celtics at one, Thunder at two,
Speaker 1: Lakers at three, Calves at four, Warriors at five, Timberwolves
Speaker 1: at six, Pacers at seven, Nuggets at eight, Clippers at nine,
Speaker 1: Knicks at ten. Now, after having another week's worth of
Speaker 1: high leverage games, I would make two tweaks. I would
Speaker 1: move the Clippers up to five, meaning everyone else is
Speaker 1: going to slide down from there. I just thought they
Speaker 1: were really impressive in their win in Golden State, and
Speaker 1: Kawhi just looks so fantastic that I think they're a
Speaker 1: little bit more dangerous as a four round win type
Speaker 1: of team. But I'm keeping everyone else in order from there,
Speaker 1: and then the other draw a kind of change that
Speaker 1: I'm making. I had the Knicks at ten. I'm dropping
Speaker 1: the Knicks off the list, and I'm moving the Bucks up.
Speaker 1: I actually had twelve teams with the Bucks in the
Speaker 1: Rockets being the too off the list, but I'm moving
Speaker 1: the Bucks up and I'm moving the Knicks down. I
Speaker 1: will explain my reasoning there for a minute. So the
Speaker 1: final list that I'm going with into the playoffs this
Speaker 1: year is Celtics at one, Thunder at two, Lakers at three,
Speaker 1: Calves at four, Clippers at five, Warriors at six, Timberwolves
Speaker 1: at seven, Pacers at eight, Nuggets at nine, Bucks at ten.
Speaker 1: One other detail before we get into some of the specifics.
Speaker 1: I think there's a drop off after six that one
Speaker 1: through six. I view, as you know, that's how I
Speaker 1: would rank those teams, and I think those are the
Speaker 1: six teams that have the best chance to get this done.
Speaker 1: I think there's a pretty considerable drop off down from there.
Speaker 1: I think all those teams at big strengths, but their
Speaker 1: weaknesses are very big, and it just seems inevitable to
Speaker 1: me that other six teams will eventually run into a
Speaker 1: team that can exploit that weakness and eliminate them. That
Speaker 1: seven through twelve, so the Timberwolves, Pacers, Nuggets, Bucks, and
Speaker 1: then the Knicks and the and the Knicks and the Rockets.
Speaker 1: I view all those teams as more or less on
Speaker 1: the same level that I'm less concerned about where they're
Speaker 1: specifically ranked. I feel pretty strongly about those top six teams, though,
Speaker 1: So let's get into some specifics. Why is Boston over OKAC?
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City, last I checked, was still the favorite to
Speaker 1: win the title. Why do I have Boston over Oka See? Well,
Speaker 1: to put it simply, I think that their age has
Speaker 1: caused them, relative to OKAC to have a somewhat less
Speaker 1: successful statistical performance in the regular season, and I think
Speaker 1: that that's not necessarily an accurate representation of those two
Speaker 1: teams in their ceilings. I've said this a bunch of
Speaker 1: times on the show. Alex Cruso is the only guy
Speaker 1: in the core playoff rotation for the Thunder that's over
Speaker 1: the age of twenty six. Jason Tatum is the only
Speaker 1: guy in the Celtics actual playoff rotation that's twenty six
Speaker 1: or younger. That whole team is older, considerably older than Okay. See,
Speaker 1: they're not going to bring the night to night effort
Speaker 1: that Okase did, and yet they were still a dominant
Speaker 1: regular season team that still looked excellent on most nights.
Speaker 1: So I don't think the regular season data is as
Speaker 1: revealing of a gap between OKAC and Boston as everyone
Speaker 1: else thinks. From there, I just think they're more experienced,
Speaker 1: and I think they're more versatile. I think that makes
Speaker 1: them more reliable to be at their ceiling as they
Speaker 1: get into higher leverage games. I can count on Drew Holliday,
Speaker 1: Derek White, Al Horford in a different way than I
Speaker 1: feel like I can count on chet Holmgren, Lou Dort,
Speaker 1: and Jalen Williams to consistently well when the stakes go
Speaker 1: up to their highest. Do I think Okaye can win,
Speaker 1: of course, and I have them at number two, But
Speaker 1: I think the Celtics for me, deserve the nod as
Speaker 1: the most likely team to win the championship this year.
Speaker 1: Why are the Lakers over the Cavaliers. This is the
Speaker 1: first example of what I talked about earlier in terms
Speaker 1: of a team potentially being better than the team that's
Speaker 1: above them, but me dropping them because I don't think
Speaker 1: they're as likely to hoist the trophy. The Calves are
Speaker 1: a better basketball team than the Lakers. They've demonstrated that
Speaker 1: pretty much from start to finish this season. However, I
Speaker 1: think the Lakers are more equipped to upset the Oklahoma
Speaker 1: City Thunder than the Calves are to upset the Boston Celtics.
Speaker 1: I think the Calves have a real chance to beat Boston.
Speaker 1: I think their wins, though, showed that things worked for
Speaker 1: them best in crunch time when guys were out of
Speaker 1: the lineup. A lot of attacking Sam Hauser, a lot
Speaker 1: of matchups in crunch time that Donovan Mitchell was able
Speaker 1: to go at. That just won't be there when they
Speaker 1: end up in a postseason series with Boston. When they
Speaker 1: end up in a postseason series with Boston. I know
Speaker 1: Tatum can score on Evan Mobley, I've seen him do it.
Speaker 1: I know Tatum can score on Jared Allen. I've seen
Speaker 1: him do it. I know Tatum can consistently generate good
Speaker 1: shots against Darius Garland. I've seen him do it. I
Speaker 1: think the Celtics just have more advantages that they can
Speaker 1: exploit over the course of a real life play series
Speaker 1: and not these regular season meetings that they have. I
Speaker 1: think Boston is just a much much better team than
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Cavaliers, and I think they'll show it when
Speaker 1: they get into the postseason. The Lakers specifically present a
Speaker 1: matchup problem for OKC. They are too big on the
Speaker 1: perimeter for okc's smaller perimeter players. Lebron and Luke are
Speaker 1: too comfortable. They have the ability to on defense, load
Speaker 1: up on Shay and on offense spread them out and
Speaker 1: pick them apart. I thought they demonstrated that pretty clearly
Speaker 1: in their two game set that they played earlier this season.
Speaker 1: I think the Lakers are more likely to upset OKC
Speaker 1: and get into the finals than the Calves are to
Speaker 1: upset Boston and get into the finals. Therefore, the Lakers
Speaker 1: are more likely to win the championship this year than
Speaker 1: the Calves, even though the Calves are a better team.
Speaker 1: And so that's why I put the Lakers at three
Speaker 1: on the championship contender list. Why did you drop the Warriors?
Speaker 1: The Warriors have been a really hard team for me
Speaker 1: to get a read on over the course of the
Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, because they looked unbelievable there for
Speaker 1: a long time after the dead line. But then they
Speaker 1: just in several high leverage games in a row, the
Speaker 1: Houston game on Sunday, the Spurs game, the Blazers game,
Speaker 1: the Clippers game, the Grizzlies game. They just didn't look
Speaker 1: like the same type of, you know, world beating, championship
Speaker 1: contending type of team that they looked before. They lost
Speaker 1: that game to Houston. They lost that game to San Antonio.
Speaker 1: They beat Portland, but then they lost that game to
Speaker 1: the Clippers, and they were in danger of losing that
Speaker 1: game to the Grizzlies. And like, those teams are all good,
Speaker 1: but none of them are among the teams that we
Speaker 1: have in the top tier of this list, except for
Speaker 1: the Clippers. And they lost that game. And so I'm
Speaker 1: a little bit lower on Golden State than I was
Speaker 1: before because they look a little worn down. The role
Speaker 1: players look a little less confident. They've got what appears
Speaker 1: to be a shooting problem that has risen to the surface.
Speaker 1: I'm a little concerned about Golden State. That's why I
Speaker 1: ended up dropping them, but I do still have them
Speaker 1: on that tier. Big believer in their defense. I think
Speaker 1: Jimmy has looked fantastic in these last two super high
Speaker 1: leverage games. Still a believer in the Warriors, But to me,
Speaker 1: the Clippers did more at the tail end of the
Speaker 1: season to demonstrate to me that they had a championship
Speaker 1: ceiling than the Warriors. So that's why I moved them.
Speaker 1: Why are the Nuggets solow? I'm a huge believer in
Speaker 1: Nikola Jokic. I think he's the best player in the world.
Speaker 1: I think he's the best offensive player I've ever seen.
Speaker 1: But I don't think their defense is anywhere near good
Speaker 1: enough to win four playoff rounds. I think it's a
Speaker 1: death sentence. I think they're high risk to lose in
Speaker 1: round one. I think they're high risk to lose, like
Speaker 1: their high risk to lose in every single round because
Speaker 1: of their defense. And so I just would be stunned
Speaker 1: if Denver ended up winning the title this year. For me,
Speaker 1: I dropped him way down because I just think there's
Speaker 1: a lot of teams playing much better basketball than them
Speaker 1: right now. And then, lastly, why did I drop the
Speaker 1: Knicks for the Milwaukee Bucks? Really just comes down to Giannis.
Speaker 1: Over the course of the tail end of the season,
Speaker 1: I was just so blown away by this work that
Speaker 1: Giannis has been doing as an on ball shot creator
Speaker 1: without Dame. I said this on my show the other day,
Speaker 1: But over his last six games of the season, where
Speaker 1: he went six to OHO, the team actually went eight
Speaker 1: to OH their last dight, but Yanna sat out two
Speaker 1: of those games. In those six wins, Giannas averaged thirty
Speaker 1: two to twelve and twelve on over sixty percent from
Speaker 1: the field, over forty percent from three on over two
Speaker 1: attempts per game, and over seventy percent from the line.
Speaker 1: He legitimately has been like two way Luka Doncic over
Speaker 1: the course of the last month or so of the season.
Speaker 1: I think that is a huge wild card going into
Speaker 1: a postseason run. That makes the Bucks a substantially more
Speaker 1: dangerous team than they looked earlier in the season than
Speaker 1: when they were playing so much more through Dane. Also,
Speaker 1: there's a version of this where Dame doesn't play and
Speaker 1: they lean more into their defensive personnel. I think that
Speaker 1: the Bucks have just a little bit more of a
Speaker 1: puncher's chance to make some noise than the Knicks two
Speaker 1: on the strength of Giannis Antennacumbo, and so that's why
Speaker 1: I move them up to ten. But to put it frankly,
Speaker 1: I don't think the Knicks or the Bucks really have
Speaker 1: that much of a chance this year. All Right, that's
Speaker 1: all I have for my top ten contender rankings. Again,
Speaker 1: as always, I appreciate you guys for supporting me and
Speaker 1: supporting the show. Super excited for this playoff run. Super
Speaker 1: excited to get into the chess match in every series.
Speaker 1: I will see you guys on Saturday. What's up guys?
Speaker 1: As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
Speaker 1: OOPS tonight. They would actually be really helpful for us
Speaker 1: if you guys would take a second and leave a
Speaker 1: rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys
Speaker 1: supporting us, but if you could take a minute to
Speaker 1: do that, I'd really appreciate it. The volume