WEBVTT - Betting on the Draft with matt McEwan 0:00:06.040 --> 0:00:10.920 M QAnon. Wow, what great timing. Amazing timing here, So 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:13.159 let's talk about it. 0:00:13.920 --> 0:00:16.520 So first and foremost, yesterday we saw a series of 0:00:16.640 --> 0:00:19.560 unprecedenting swings in the odds for who would go number 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:22.320 one in the draft. In the span of eight hours, 0:00:22.880 --> 0:00:26.639 Jabari Smith went from negative ten thousand, which means for 0:00:26.720 --> 0:00:30.639 every dollar you bet, you get back one penny, to 0:00:30.840 --> 0:00:37.239 plus three hundred to plus three hundred, which means for 0:00:37.440 --> 0:00:42.240 every dollar you bet bet you get back three dollars, 0:00:42.640 --> 0:00:45.040 and then it went back down again. Eventual number one 0:00:45.040 --> 0:00:48.040 pick PLO Ben Carol was plus twenty two hundred, which 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:50.440 means every dollar you get back, you get every dollar 0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:51.760 you bet you get twenty two back. 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:54.480 Ten days ago, never seen anything like this. 0:00:55.440 --> 0:00:58.240 So to help us understand what all happened and how 0:00:58.240 --> 0:01:01.360 it might affect future drafts the league as a whole, 0:01:01.840 --> 0:01:06.280 please welcome Matt McEwan. Matt is editor in chief of 0:01:06.319 --> 0:01:10.200 the Sports Betting Dime. He has been a friend of 0:01:10.240 --> 0:01:14.480 a show for a long time now. He is also 0:01:14.560 --> 0:01:17.480 he has created their futures trackers, score predictors. 0:01:17.080 --> 0:01:21.320 And other betting models. Welcome to the show, Matt, he 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:23.080 so much for having me. 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:26.560 Yeah, thanks for coming on, man, it was what a 0:01:26.720 --> 0:01:30.760 crazy time it is to be a sports betting person 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:31.679 in the business. 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:36.160 I had people even that were people that were. 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:39.240 Newsbreakers who wanted to get my perspective in terms of 0:01:40.000 --> 0:01:42.640 how this blew up on Twitter, you know, not just 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:46.800 gambling Twitter, but NBA Twitter. So I figured, you know, 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:49.160 for the people to get somebody on who does this 0:01:49.240 --> 0:01:51.360 all the time and understands how markets move. 0:01:51.840 --> 0:01:53.160 So I wanted to have you on. 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:59.800 Explain to those maybe who don't bet or don't understand, 0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:03.080 you know, how these things go. How we can get 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:09.160 odds change so rapidly and so wildly in such a 0:02:09.200 --> 0:02:12.080 short period of time, and not just in one direction 0:02:12.440 --> 0:02:16.160 where everything goes and stays, but then in every direction. 0:02:16.960 --> 0:02:21.119 Yeah, so I'm interest it all boils down to money, right, 0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:25.760 And these sports books they aren't you know, they're in 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:29.320 the betting industry, but they're not into making bets themselves. 0:02:29.840 --> 0:02:30.040 Right. 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:35.200 They're not sitting here saying, okay, we're okay if we're 0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:39.840 you know, have this massive liability on Palo to go first. Now, 0:02:40.000 --> 0:02:45.919 their job is to even the money up proportionally. 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:46.359 Right. 0:02:46.880 --> 0:02:49.760 What they want is, again it's not necessarily an equal 0:02:49.760 --> 0:02:52.280 amount of money on each side. But what they need 0:02:52.400 --> 0:02:55.480 is a proportional amount of money on each side, right. 0:02:55.560 --> 0:02:58.280 And I say that because, hey, if you got. 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:01.240 Minus one ten odds on each side, sure you want 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:04.280 equal money on each side. But when we're talking about 0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:06.760 something like you just said there where Jabari Smith was 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:11.160 minus ten thousand, you know that's okay. You you you 0:03:11.240 --> 0:03:14.400 should have a lot more money on Jabari Smith than 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:17.079 you should have on anybody else at that point. Right, 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:21.600 So you know what this this was just very interesting 0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:24.440 to see the money flowing right, And that's exactly what 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:27.240 happened here was you know, and we live in this 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:30.440 age of social media now and it's becoming stronger, and 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:33.960 the insiders and the rumors and and you know, whether 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:39.360 they're real or or fake, they're flowing right. And all 0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:41.880 it takes, as we've seen, is one of them to 0:03:42.000 --> 0:03:45.680 get a ton of people on it willing to say, Okay, 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:48.360 you know, I'm gonna throw some money on this side. 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:51.040 I think it's it's got some value. All of a sudden, 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:53.440 you create some steam. You got a ton of money 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:56.240 coming in there. The book starts saying, we can't have this. 0:03:56.760 --> 0:04:01.240 You know, if this event occurs now we would be 0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:02.720 out a lot of money. 0:04:03.000 --> 0:04:04.880 So what do we have to do. We got to 0:04:04.880 --> 0:04:08.400 start driving some money on the other options, right, So. 0:04:08.320 --> 0:04:10.800 That's where you see this fluctuation happening, and that's why 0:04:10.800 --> 0:04:13.880 you saw it happen so fast, so wildly, Like you 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:17.839 described there, right, there was just this massive flow of 0:04:17.839 --> 0:04:21.640 money that started about seventy two hours ago on Palo there. 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:25.480 And you know, then Wadge sends out his tweet that 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:28.559 it is going to be Jabbari, and all of a sudden, 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:30.800 everybody's back on Jabbari, and so then they've got to 0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:33.480 swing it again because they're all of a sudden liable again. 0:04:33.520 --> 0:04:37.919 They're not in a good position in where the money's lying, right, 0:04:38.080 --> 0:04:41.560 So it was wild and you know, for those who 0:04:41.600 --> 0:04:44.840 are familiar, you know NFL fans as well. 0:04:45.200 --> 0:04:47.200 We saw this happen in the NFL draft too, right 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:50.359 with Aiden Hutchinson and Trevon Walker. We even saw it. 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:52.680 I mean, if you go a little bit further back, 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:55.359 Icky and Evan Neil, all of a sudden were the 0:04:55.360 --> 0:04:58.600 favorites to go first overall, right, and same type of thing. 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:04.160 It didn't happen, you know, as you know, as abruptly 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:09.800 as this one did. But as as more markets come online, right, 0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:13.200 more people are betting, there's more money available to be 0:05:13.200 --> 0:05:17.400 bet and just more rumors going. 0:05:17.279 --> 0:05:20.760 Around, right. So that's that's why it's it's essentially the money. 0:05:22.279 --> 0:05:28.280 So I'm curious what can betters learn from this the 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:32.480 next time it happens, and is there a philosophy because 0:05:33.040 --> 0:05:35.560 it feels like seventy two hours ago there was no 0:05:35.760 --> 0:05:39.760 news that was the reason that Paolo was getting a 0:05:39.800 --> 0:05:42.920 lot of influx of money other than just the value 0:05:43.480 --> 0:05:45.560 of seeing twenty two twenty one. 0:05:45.560 --> 0:05:46.440 To one odds. 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:49.400 Well, So, I mean, if there's a lesson here, and 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:51.800 I mean I think this goes beyond sports, even Tristan, 0:05:52.080 --> 0:05:54.680 I know this is a sports podcast, but I mean, 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:58.200 if there's a lesson, it is you know, understand the 0:05:58.240 --> 0:06:03.640 sources that you're or trusting, right, and it's you know, 0:06:03.760 --> 0:06:11.359 these insiders understand that they don't need firm, credible evidence 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:14.960 to go and put out a report, right, they just 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:17.640 need a rumor and and it's and it's a report. 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:20.599 So you know, if there's a lesson that you had here, 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:24.560 I think it's, uh, it's one, you know, know your sources, 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:29.560 but two, understand that around these drafts, nobody knows anything, 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:34.720 you know, and and the teams themselves are are thrown 0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:36.880 out fake reports to try to throw each other off 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:40.080 of you know, each other's scent, right the I mean, 0:06:40.520 --> 0:06:43.240 you know, nobody, nobody wants to nobody. They they don't 0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:46.240 want everybody else knowing who they're taking first overall, right, 0:06:46.279 --> 0:06:49.479 They they would love they would have loved, you know, 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:52.480 somebody to try to trade up to come get Jabbari 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:55.080 Smith because you know, they wanted Jabbari Smith and that 0:06:55.240 --> 0:06:56.240 was their guy, right. 0:06:56.839 --> 0:06:59.200 So it's it's just knowing. 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:04.560 That these drafts are very unpredictable, and and you know, 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:07.600 when you do see twenty two hundred huts, it is 0:07:07.640 --> 0:07:10.520 worth a little sprinkle. You know, obviously we bet responsibly, 0:07:10.760 --> 0:07:14.600 and you know, don't don't put your life savings on 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:19.200 something like this, but couple bucks at twenty two hundred 0:07:19.280 --> 0:07:21.120 at that point, I mean, you know, obviously you were 0:07:21.160 --> 0:07:24.000 laughing come come draft day, if you if you got 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:24.880 on that train early. 0:07:25.800 --> 0:07:29.360 How does this compare to other drafts that we've seen 0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:33.320 in the NBA, because it feels like most are pretty 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:37.520 consensus number. Like I'm thinking about the Zion draft, there 0:07:37.600 --> 0:07:40.640 was nothing that anyone could do to get me to 0:07:40.760 --> 0:07:43.200 draft any to get me to put money on anyone 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:43.960 but Zion. 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:48.200 And so, so, how does what we saw last. 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:52.920 Night compared to maybe what you've seen in prior drafts? 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:56.200 You are absolutely correct, right, I think this was the 0:07:56.200 --> 0:07:58.520 first draft in a little bit that we have seen 0:07:58.760 --> 0:08:02.680 a little bit of skepticism over, like who who is the. 0:08:02.960 --> 0:08:03.960 True number one here? 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:09.440 Right and there there wasn't any clear sign that it 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:10.360 is this guy. 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:14.200 So no, this, this this was unique. 0:08:15.360 --> 0:08:18.520 This, this wanted to be very honest with you, reminded 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:21.280 me of of certain NFL drafts where there isn't that 0:08:21.400 --> 0:08:24.880 top flight quarterback, right whenever you have the top quarterback, 0:08:26.040 --> 0:08:28.360 you know, you know who's going number one. But this 0:08:28.720 --> 0:08:30.640 reminded me of that where it was all of a sudden, 0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:35.320 you know there. I know Chat didn't really ever see 0:08:35.400 --> 0:08:39.560 like you know, his odds shortened a ton, but. 0:08:39.200 --> 0:08:41.160 I think plus one eighty all the way down to 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:43.520 one ten back up the plus four hundred up to 0:08:43.520 --> 0:08:45.800 twenty two hundred on draft day, So a little. 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:48.800 Some some movement there, right, but he he What I 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:51.200 was saying is essentially he never became a favorite, right 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:54.800 like he there there there wasn't this swing to chat Alveston. 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:57.319 But at the same time, it very well could have 0:08:57.400 --> 0:08:59.079 been Chet as well. Like there there were there were 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:02.160 three guys that really it could have been any one 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:06.160 of these, right, And no, this was truly unique. And 0:09:06.200 --> 0:09:10.440 this is you know, you get these betting opportunities very seldomly, 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:12.720 you know, these these types of things, don't I mean 0:09:12.880 --> 0:09:14.679 the draft itself when it shows up once a year, 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:19.120 and like you said, most are you know, consensus, there's 0:09:19.160 --> 0:09:21.559 a number one. This guy's going, don't waste your money 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:25.640 on anything else, right, So no, I mean to your 0:09:25.679 --> 0:09:28.640 to your point before it's you know, understand when there 0:09:28.720 --> 0:09:31.439 is uncertainty and capitalize. 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:35.240 Do you think this changes how. 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:44.319 Information like the news information business around events like the draft, 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:48.440 Like does this put does this put pressure on maybe 0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:53.280 making these non sporting sporting events illegal nationwide because they 0:09:53.320 --> 0:09:57.280 are so predicated on information and not something that's like 0:09:57.320 --> 0:10:02.000 completely unpredictable, given that there's already five states, including New York, 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:03.000 where it's not legal. 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:07.720 So I personally don't believe we're going to see this 0:10:08.080 --> 0:10:10.720 mass rush to like, hey, let's not offer odds here. 0:10:10.800 --> 0:10:11.680 This is just too much. 0:10:12.200 --> 0:10:15.400 I think the you know, the moves we'll see are 0:10:15.880 --> 0:10:18.360 are likely going to be. You know, there's some states 0:10:18.360 --> 0:10:21.840 that basically shut shut it down, like twenty four hours prior. 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:22.640 Right. 0:10:23.040 --> 0:10:26.400 That's that's one step I think we would see well 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:29.800 before anything like that. The other one is just cap 0:10:29.840 --> 0:10:32.560 in the bets, right, like take you know, and they 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:34.760 already do to an extent. You know, every sportsbook has 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:37.200 the right to refuse any bet that you come to 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:39.959 them with, and they do. You know, if you showed 0:10:40.040 --> 0:10:43.800 up with, you know, half a million dollars on Paalo, 0:10:44.240 --> 0:10:46.120 I don't think any sportsbook would have taken at. 0:10:46.080 --> 0:10:49.319 Twenty two to one. They're like, nah, dog, no chance. 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:51.280 Right, nobody wants that liability. 0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:53.880 Would they let me ask you a quick follow up question, 0:10:53.960 --> 0:10:56.680 would they move the line even if they didn't take 0:10:56.720 --> 0:11:00.720 the bet? Just like say I gets them five, I 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:02.959 want to put five hundred thousand dollars on Palo twenty 0:11:02.960 --> 0:11:05.439 two to one? They turn me away? Do then the 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:09.400 traders go back into a little powwow and say, holy shit, 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:12.679 we there's something that might be Yeah, So. 0:11:13.559 --> 0:11:16.560 That in itself may not move the line right away, 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:21.080 but that's gonna put high alert on that line all 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:23.880 of a sudden and you're gonna have somebody watching that 0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:27.400 line and watching every bet from there out that comes 0:11:27.440 --> 0:11:30.920 in on that line, right and and yeah, your your 0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:34.280 your next bet on that draft is not gonna be 0:11:34.360 --> 0:11:38.240 accepted as quickly as it would have been ten minutes ago. Right, 0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:42.120 So it may not shut it down, but high alert 0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:43.760 that that that's gonna get the attention. 0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:44.079 Right. 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:46.360 So, you know, those are the moves I think we 0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:49.440 would see, right just and and and we already do 0:11:49.480 --> 0:11:50.280 see them to an extent. 0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:52.200 They just may continue moving in that direction. 0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:56.600 Maybe you're you know, they take less, you know, five 0:11:56.679 --> 0:12:00.959 figure bets, four figure bets on these types of events, right, 0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:04.720 I don't think we'll they take They take too much handle, 0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:07.800 you know, for for what it is, like, it's it's 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:08.520 worth it for them. 0:12:08.600 --> 0:12:08.800 Right. 0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:13.920 So, Adrian woj Zanowski, as well as Sham Sharanya to 0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:16.640 the top newsbreakers in the business have been courted. 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:18.880 It's no secret they're being courted by books. 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:22.880 How does this change if woj is working for someone 0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:23.840 like points Bet. 0:12:25.080 --> 0:12:27.240 Yeah, so, I mean that's an interesting one in in 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:30.319 my opinion here, you know, and I think what what 0:12:30.360 --> 0:12:31.800 we all hope. 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:35.320 This means is just that his information goes to the 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:36.199 books first. 0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:39.120 Right, that's what they're paying the seven million dollars or 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:39.920 whatever it is for. 0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:44.240 And and that's it, and it's it's basically before you 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:47.440 go public, it's hey, just let us know so that 0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:51.520 we can put our line either on alert, we can 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:54.360 move it, or we can just take it down. Right, 0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:56.440 And uh so, what what does that do? 0:12:58.840 --> 0:12:59.000 You know? 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:01.840 As a better it gives you less opportunities to expose 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:07.280 a bad line. But again, as we've said, like this 0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:10.960 is only like the informational based betting events too, right, 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:16.160 so you know, sure woes might have an injury to 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:20.600 report ahead of time, right, I feel there's I feel 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:22.840 there's enough people that are you know, privy to that 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:25.679 information that you'll still get it in a reasonable time, 0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:28.960 you know, And when it comes to a single game 0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:30.920 like that, there's enough handle on it that you're not 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:35.960 going to instantly start moving that line. So you know, 0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:40.480 it does though, it will limit your opportunities to expose 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:41.080 a bad line. 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:46.480 Do you think what we saw was good for basketball 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:48.120 or bad for basketball? 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:52.680 I thought it was good, So I mean, I'll be 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:55.280 very honest with you. And and just again from I 0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:58.280 hate to keep calling back to the NFL here. I'm 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:03.840 sure you know I'm a big NFL fan. The NFL 0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:07.920 Draft for me anyways, and I think for most Americans 0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:12.120 as well, is a much bigger event than the NBA 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:16.440 Draft is, you know, And the betting handle says so 0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:21.000 as well. You know, the Johnny Evello was on talking 0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:25.440 about the NFL Draft being at least three times the 0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:28.600 handle of the of the NBA draft, you know. So 0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:32.280 I feel it was good. I feel all this because 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:35.360 I mean, you know, every time someone sees a long 0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:39.080 shot win, right, their head gets filled with that could 0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:42.440 be me, you know next time. Maybe maybe that could 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:45.440 be me. Maybe I could be that lottery winner next time. 0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:45.800 Right. 0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:49.280 So I think it's great for basketball. I think it 0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:52.840 will drive a little more interest in next year's draft 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:56.360 and you know, specifically betting on the draft as well, right, 0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:58.760 which I mean that drives a lot of interest. 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:04.960 We saw a trade before the draft, Christian Wood got 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:08.960 moved based on the perception, the false perception that Jabari 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:11.120 was a lock to go number one, that Carol was 0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:13.160 going to be there for Houston at number three. 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:16.120 Does this. 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:21.960 Does that change like pre draft trades from got from 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:24.840 teams in the lottery perhaps, like, how do you think 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:28.720 this changes I guess how how teams communicate with one another. 0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:32.120 You know what I mean? 0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:34.840 I think that was always a concern, you know, like 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:37.440 that was always a risk that that they were taking 0:15:37.520 --> 0:15:41.760 in doing so right. And I would you be willing 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:44.200 to bet money that this isn't the first time that 0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:47.800 you know, one team maybe fed another team that information 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.720 about what they were doing. You know, I don't think 0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:56.360 that's that's never happened before. So I you know what, 0:15:56.400 --> 0:15:59.160 I I don't I don't think that has any effect. 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:03.040 I think, you know, Houston maybe got burned a little bit, 0:16:03.240 --> 0:16:06.520 but I think they're gonna be okay to borri Ma. 0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:10.560 So I'm looking at odds now. 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:14.240 For Rookie of the Year and I see that Paolo 0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:18.080 ban Cao is the odds on favorite plus three hundred. 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:23.280 Why does this say he's in Detroit. That's so weird. Anyway, 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:27.760 that's strange. Palo ban Caro plus plus three hundred. The 0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:32.360 longest odd that I see on sports betting dime is Jalen. 0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:34.160 Duran at thirty to one. 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:38.560 I'm curious, though, for those who have never bet on 0:16:38.760 --> 0:16:42.760 Rookie of the Year before, what's the smartest strategy to 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:43.560 bet on that. 0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:48.760 So in in my opinion, here from what I've seen, 0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:52.720 and you know, I've I've been tracking these Rookie of 0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:56.760 the Year odds for about six years now, right, It 0:16:56.920 --> 0:17:02.000 ultimately the main factor is points, sadly, right, which you know, 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:05.560 I think a lot of the basketball purists get a 0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:06.520 little upset over this. 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:10.399 You know, there's there's a lot that goes into the game. 0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:14.600 That you know, and points is the sexy stat, right, 0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:18.800 and it's it's points, it's. 0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:19.760 Highlight reel plays. 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:22.600 You know, how how many times are you gonna see 0:17:22.960 --> 0:17:27.120 Jabbari throwing down on on you know, some. 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:28.840 Some big forward. 0:17:30.000 --> 0:17:33.240 As well as there they're recently, what I've seen is 0:17:33.240 --> 0:17:36.280 some team success go into it though, you know, and 0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:42.440 I team team success comes in when there isn't a 0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:50.439 clear cut super sexy point scorer, highlight reel most night player, 0:17:51.400 --> 0:17:53.600 then it defers to and and I mean I think 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:55.760 that's what you saw with Scotti box this this past 0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:57.600 year winning winning Rookie of the Year. Right, you looked 0:17:57.600 --> 0:18:00.719 at the Raptors and said he wasn't really key piece 0:18:00.880 --> 0:18:03.520 in getting them to the playoffs going from you know, 0:18:03.560 --> 0:18:07.680 picking was at four, Uh to up into the playoffs there, 0:18:07.760 --> 0:18:11.320 you know. So, yeah, he played a massive role on 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:13.399 that team, and all of a sudden, I think for 0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:15.200 the first time in a while, we saw that come 0:18:15.240 --> 0:18:17.919 into play. But for the most part, I think you're 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:20.399 looking at which which player is going to be on 0:18:20.480 --> 0:18:22.200 the floor and score. 0:18:23.680 --> 0:18:26.000 I'm betting, I'm betting, yeah. 0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:29.560 So I'm take me through the reason the reasoning for that. 0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:32.200 Jabari obviously on the on the Houston Rocket's going to 0:18:32.240 --> 0:18:37.760 be playing alongside Jalen Green, a noted Chucker. Willing passer, 0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:40.840 but noted chucker can put up you know, ten threes 0:18:41.000 --> 0:18:46.160 a night. Kevin Porter Junior, another noted Chucker on that 0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:48.800 team as well, will shoot from anywhere. 0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:50.280 Not a willing passer. 0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:53.560 So take me through kind of your strategy on how 0:18:53.600 --> 0:18:54.800 you get to Jabbari. 0:18:55.119 --> 0:18:57.840 So right away, look, you know, looking at the favorite 0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:04.520 Paalo there, I don't love him in that offense necessarily, 0:19:04.880 --> 0:19:07.920 and what I mean, I don't love his usage. There's 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:10.960 a lot that like I think Orlando has this idea 0:19:11.000 --> 0:19:14.119 that they're gonna compete this year a little bit, you know, 0:19:14.280 --> 0:19:16.359 which I see you laugh at and I kind of 0:19:16.400 --> 0:19:19.000 do internally too, because it's the Orlando Magic, and we 0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:23.160 haven't seen them really do that in a long time now. 0:19:23.720 --> 0:19:26.399 But there's a lot of players in Orlando that want 0:19:26.480 --> 0:19:28.960 the ball as well, And especially if all of a sudden, 0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:32.840 like Markel Foltz has like a summer where all of 0:19:32.880 --> 0:19:36.160 a sudden he finds himself again and now of a sudden, 0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:39.120 you've got just all these guys that want to get 0:19:39.200 --> 0:19:41.359 their own I mean, that's a full that's a loaded 0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:47.840 roster of young, hungry players there, right. So I'm out 0:19:47.880 --> 0:19:49.560 on him and his ods are just a little little 0:19:49.560 --> 0:19:56.040 too short for me with his situation looking around elsewhere, Chat, 0:19:57.119 --> 0:20:00.679 I have fears over him just in the NBA in general. 0:20:03.119 --> 0:20:05.680 You know, his his weight worries me a little bit 0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:08.760 and and just how yeah, how thin he is, how 0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:13.639 lean he is, So I don't know what that's going 0:20:13.720 --> 0:20:16.879 to look like in the NBA, I have. 0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:20.640 I have some doubts there admittedly, So you. 0:20:20.600 --> 0:20:22.920 Know, look looking basically, I look at those top three 0:20:23.040 --> 0:20:26.560 guys because I think they stand above the rest and 0:20:26.560 --> 0:20:29.720 and and you know those those are, yeah, in my opinion, 0:20:29.760 --> 0:20:31.159 the kind of top tier guys. 0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:34.200 And I do look to Houston, and that's a situation 0:20:34.320 --> 0:20:36.960 where you have a team there that isn't too far 0:20:37.040 --> 0:20:42.800 removed from being championship contenders year in year out right, 0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:46.120 And I think you have a like that that's that's 0:20:46.160 --> 0:20:50.480 still a proud team that wants to get back to competing. 0:20:51.520 --> 0:20:56.720 And I think they've seen they can't do that playing 0:20:56.760 --> 0:20:58.600 basketball the way they did, the way that you just 0:20:58.640 --> 0:21:01.199 mentioned them doing. And I think there's going to be 0:21:01.320 --> 0:21:07.200 a very concerted effort from the coaching staff to get 0:21:07.240 --> 0:21:09.320 the ball into Jabbari's hands and to be a little 0:21:09.359 --> 0:21:13.959 more efficient offensively. You know, it's very efficient throwing down dunks. 0:21:15.640 --> 0:21:19.440 So I think we're gonna see a lot of Jabbari 0:21:19.480 --> 0:21:23.240 this year. I think we're gonna see the offense run 0:21:23.280 --> 0:21:26.199 through Jabbari a little more than some expect because, like 0:21:26.240 --> 0:21:29.399 I said, I know, I mean Jalen Green shot taker. 0:21:31.720 --> 0:21:34.240 I think Houston's I think Houston's gonna do everything. 0:21:34.000 --> 0:21:38.560 They can to put the ball through Jabari's hands, and 0:21:39.600 --> 0:21:42.960 I think he'll be, you know, a little similar to 0:21:43.080 --> 0:21:45.720 Scotti in Toronto, where he's almost like the focal point 0:21:45.880 --> 0:21:48.120 of the offense. He may not score all the points, 0:21:48.800 --> 0:21:50.880 but I think the ball is gonna run through him 0:21:51.119 --> 0:21:52.000 pretty consistently. 0:21:52.800 --> 0:21:59.360 If if Bradley Beal ends up leaving Washington, is there 0:21:59.400 --> 0:22:02.480 a chance that the line moves on Johnny Davis? 0:22:02.720 --> 0:22:07.760 It's plus two thousand now, so wow, yeah, that's a 0:22:07.800 --> 0:22:11.960 great value. So would you take a flyer? 0:22:12.000 --> 0:22:14.639 And also, on top of Johnny Davis, are there any 0:22:14.720 --> 0:22:17.000 other So I guess the two part of question, any 0:22:17.040 --> 0:22:21.920 other long shots that you absolutely love and then long 0:22:22.000 --> 0:22:25.560 shots that you would absolutely stay away from outside of 0:22:25.600 --> 0:22:28.760 maybe Mark Williams and Jalen Durn because of the usage rate. 0:22:30.600 --> 0:22:35.040 So Johnny Davis isn't is a very interesting name there, right, 0:22:35.080 --> 0:22:39.800 And I I just have my concerns like is Bradley 0:22:39.840 --> 0:22:40.760 Beal really leaving? 0:22:40.840 --> 0:22:44.080