WEBVTT - Smart Talks with IBM: AI & the Productivity Paradox

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<v Speaker 1>Hey everyone, it's Robert and Joe here. Today we've got

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<v Speaker 1>something a little bit different to share with you. It

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<v Speaker 1>is a new season of the Smart Talks with IBM

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<v Speaker 1>podcast series.

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<v Speaker 2>Today we are witnessed to one of those rare moments

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<v Speaker 2>in history, the rise of an innovative technology with the

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<v Speaker 2>potential to radically transform business and society forever. The technology,

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<v Speaker 2>of course, is artificial intelligence, and it's the central focus

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<v Speaker 2>for this new season of Smart Talks with IBM.

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<v Speaker 1>Join hosts from your favorite Pushkin podcasts as they talk

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<v Speaker 1>with industry experts and leaders to explore how businesses can

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<v Speaker 1>integrate AI into their workflows and help drive real change

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<v Speaker 1>in this new era of AI. And of course, host

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<v Speaker 1>Malcolm Gladwell will be there to guide you through the

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<v Speaker 1>season and throw in his two cents as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Look out for new episodes of Smart Talks with IBM

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<v Speaker 2>every other week on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or

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<v Speaker 2>wherever you get your podcasts. And learn more at IBM

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<v Speaker 2>dot com, slash smart Talks.

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<v Speaker 3>Pushkin.

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<v Speaker 4>Welcome, Welcome, Welcome to Smart Talks with IBM.

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<v Speaker 3>Hello, Hello, Welcome to Smart Talks with IBM, a podcast

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<v Speaker 3>from Pushkin Industries. iHeartRadio and IBM. I'm Malcolm Gladwell. This season,

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<v Speaker 3>we're diving back into the world of artificial intelligence, but

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<v Speaker 3>with a focus on the powerful concept of open its possibilities, implications,

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<v Speaker 3>and misconceptions. We'll look at openness from a variety of

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<v Speaker 3>angles and explore how the concept is already reshaping industries,

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<v Speaker 3>ways of doing business, and our very notion of what's possible.

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<v Speaker 3>And for the first episode of this season, we're bringing

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<v Speaker 3>you a special conversation. I recently sat down with Rob Thomas.

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<v Speaker 3>Rob is the senior vice president of Software and chief

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<v Speaker 3>Commercial Officer of IBM. I spoke to him in front

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<v Speaker 3>of a live audience as part of New York Tech Week.

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<v Speaker 3>We discussed how businesses can harness the immense productivity benefits

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<v Speaker 3>of AI while implementing it in a responsible and ethical manner.

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<v Speaker 3>We also broke down a fascinating concept that Rob believes

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<v Speaker 3>about AI, known as the productivity paradox. Okay, let's get

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<v Speaker 3>to the conversation. How are we doing good? Rob? This

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<v Speaker 3>is our our second time. We did one of these

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<v Speaker 3>in the middle of the pandemic, but now it's all

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<v Speaker 3>such a blur now that us can figure out when

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<v Speaker 3>it was.

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<v Speaker 4>I know it's hard to those are like a blurry years.

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<v Speaker 5>You don't know what happened, right.

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<v Speaker 3>But well, it's good to see you, to meet you again.

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<v Speaker 3>I wanted to start by going back. You've been at

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<v Speaker 3>IBM twenty years? Is that right?

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<v Speaker 5>Twenty five in July, believe it or not.

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<v Speaker 3>So you were a kid when you joined.

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<v Speaker 5>I was four.

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<v Speaker 3>W I want to contrast present day Rob and twenty

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<v Speaker 3>five years ago Rob. When you arrive at IBM, what

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<v Speaker 3>do you think your job is going to be? It,

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<v Speaker 3>your career is going? Where do you think the kind

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<v Speaker 3>of problems you're going to be addressing are?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, it's kind of surreal because I I joined IBM

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<v Speaker 4>Consulting and I'm coming out of school, and you quickly realize, wait,

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<v Speaker 4>the job of a consultant is to tell other companies

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<v Speaker 4>what to do. And I was like, I literally know nothing,

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<v Speaker 4>and so you're immediately trying to figure out, so how

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<v Speaker 4>am I going to be relevant given that I know

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<v Speaker 4>absolutely nothing to advise other companies on what they should

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<v Speaker 4>be doing. And I remember it well, like we were

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<v Speaker 4>sitting in a room. When you're a consultant, you're waiting

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<v Speaker 4>for somebody else to find work for you.

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<v Speaker 5>A bunch of us.

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<v Speaker 4>Sitting in a room and somebody walks in and says,

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<v Speaker 4>we need somebody that knows visio.

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<v Speaker 5>Does anybody know visio? I'd never heard of visio.

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<v Speaker 4>I don't know if anybody in the room has. So

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<v Speaker 4>everybody's likes sit around looking at their shoes. So finally

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<v Speaker 4>I was like, I know it. So I raised my hand.

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<v Speaker 4>They're like, great, we got a project for you next week.

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<v Speaker 4>So I was like, all right, I have like three

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<v Speaker 4>days to figure out what visio is, and I hope

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<v Speaker 4>I can actually figure out how to use it now. Luckily,

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<v Speaker 4>it wasn't like a programming language. I mean, it's pretty

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<v Speaker 4>much a drag and drop capability. And so I literally

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<v Speaker 4>left the office.

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<v Speaker 5>Went to a bookstore, bought the first three books.

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<v Speaker 4>On Visio I could find, spent the whole week in

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<v Speaker 4>reading the books, and showed up and got their work

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<v Speaker 4>on the project. And so it was a bit of

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<v Speaker 4>a risky move, but I think that's kind of you

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<v Speaker 4>doing this well. But if you don't take risk, you'll

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<v Speaker 4>never you'll never achieve. And so does some extent. Everybody's

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<v Speaker 4>making everything up all the time. It's like, can you

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<v Speaker 4>learn faster than somebody else. Is what the difference is

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<v Speaker 4>in almost every part of life. And so it was

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<v Speaker 4>not planned, but it was an accident, but it kind

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<v Speaker 4>of forced me to figure out that you're going to

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<v Speaker 4>have to figure things out.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, we're here to talk about AI, and I'm

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<v Speaker 3>curious about the evolution of your understanding or IBM's understanding

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<v Speaker 3>of my AI. At what point in the last twenty

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<v Speaker 3>five years do you begin to think, oh, this is

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<v Speaker 3>really going to be at the core of what we

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<v Speaker 3>think about and work on at this company.

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<v Speaker 4>The computer scientist John McCarthy, he was he's the person

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<v Speaker 4>that's credited with coining the phrase artificial intelligence. It's like

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<v Speaker 4>in the fifties, and he made an interesting comedy said

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<v Speaker 4>he said, once it works, it's no longer called AI,

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<v Speaker 4>and that then became it's called like the AI effect,

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<v Speaker 4>which is it seems very difficult, very mysterious, but once

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<v Speaker 4>it becomes commonplace, it's just no longer what it is.

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<v Speaker 4>And so if you put that frame on it, I

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<v Speaker 4>think we've always been doing AI at some level. And

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<v Speaker 4>I even think back to when I joined I in

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<v Speaker 4>ninety nine. At that point there was work on rules

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<v Speaker 4>based engines, analytics, all of this was happening, So it

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<v Speaker 4>all depends on how you really define that term.

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<v Speaker 5>You could argue that elements of.

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<v Speaker 4>Statistics, probability, it's not exactly AI, but it certainly feeds

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<v Speaker 4>into it.

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<v Speaker 5>And so I feel like.

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<v Speaker 4>We've been working on this topic of how do we

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<v Speaker 4>deliver better insights better automation since IBM was formed. If

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<v Speaker 4>you read about what Thomas Watson Junior did, that was

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<v Speaker 4>all about automating tasks that AI will probably certainly not

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<v Speaker 4>by today's definition, but it's in the same zip code.

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<v Speaker 3>So from your perspective, it feels a lot more like

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<v Speaker 3>an evolution than a revolution.

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<v Speaker 4>Is that a fair statement, yes, which I think most

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<v Speaker 4>great things in technology tend to happen that way. Many

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<v Speaker 4>of the revolutions, if you will, tend to fizzle out.

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<v Speaker 3>Even given that is there, I guess what I'm asking is,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm curious about whether there was a moment in that

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<v Speaker 3>evolution when you had to readjust your expectations about what

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<v Speaker 3>AI was going to be capable of. I mean, was there,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, was there a particular innovation or a particular

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<v Speaker 3>problem that was solved that made you think, oh, this

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<v Speaker 3>is different than what I thought.

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<v Speaker 4>I would say the moments that caught our attention certainly

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<v Speaker 4>casper Off winning the chess tournament Nobody or Deep Blue

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<v Speaker 4>beating casper Off. I should say, nobody really thought that

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<v Speaker 4>was possible before that, and then it was Watson winning Jeopardy.

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<v Speaker 4>These were moments that said, maybe there's more here than

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<v Speaker 4>we even thought was possible. And so I do think

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<v Speaker 4>there's points in time where we realized maybe way more could.

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<v Speaker 5>Be done than we had even imagined.

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<v Speaker 4>But I do think it's consistent progress every month and

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<v Speaker 4>every year versus some seminal moment. Now, certainly large language

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<v Speaker 4>models as of recent have caught everybody's attention because it

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<v Speaker 4>has a direct consumer application, but I would almost think

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<v Speaker 4>of that as what Netscape was for the for the

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<v Speaker 4>web browser. Yeah, it brought the Internet to everybody, but

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<v Speaker 4>that didn't become the Internet per se.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>I have a cousin who worked for IBM for forty

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<v Speaker 3>one years. I saw him this weekend. He's in Toronto.

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<v Speaker 3>By the way, I said, do you work for Rob Thomas?

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<v Speaker 3>He went like this, he goes, He said, I'm five

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<v Speaker 3>layers down. But so I always whenever I see my

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<v Speaker 3>cousin I ask him, can you tell me again what

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<v Speaker 3>you do? Because it's always changing, right, I guess this

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<v Speaker 3>is a function of working at IBM. So eventually he

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<v Speaker 3>just gives up and says, you know, we're just solving problems.

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<v Speaker 3>So what we're doing, which I sort of as a

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<v Speaker 3>kind of frame, And I was curious, what's the coolest

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<v Speaker 3>problem you ever worked on? Not biggest, not most important,

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<v Speaker 3>but the coolest, the one that's like that sort of

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<v Speaker 3>makes you smile when you think back on it.

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<v Speaker 4>Probably when I was in microelectronics, because it was a

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<v Speaker 4>world I had no exposure to. I hadn't studied computer science,

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<v Speaker 4>and we were building a lot of high performance semiconductor technology,

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<v Speaker 4>so just chips that do a really great job of

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<v Speaker 4>processing something or other. And we figured out that there

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<v Speaker 4>was a market in consumer gaming that was starting to happen,

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<v Speaker 4>and we got to the point where we became the

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<v Speaker 4>chip inside the Nintendo, We the Microsoft Xbox Sony PlayStation,

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<v Speaker 4>so we basically had the entire gaming market running on

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<v Speaker 4>ib AND chips.

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<v Speaker 3>And to use every parent basically is pointing at you

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<v Speaker 3>and saying you're the call.

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<v Speaker 5>Probably well they would have found it from anybody.

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<v Speaker 4>But it was the first time I could explain my

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<v Speaker 4>job to my kids, who were quite young at that time,

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<v Speaker 4>like what I did, Like it was more tangible for

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<v Speaker 4>them than saying we solve problems or douce you know,

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<v Speaker 4>build solutions like it became very tangible for them, and

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<v Speaker 4>I think that's, you know, a rewarding part of the

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<v Speaker 4>job is when you can help your family actually understand

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<v Speaker 4>what you do. Most people can't do that. It's probably

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<v Speaker 4>easier for you. They can they can see the books,

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<v Speaker 4>but for for some of us in the business, the

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<v Speaker 4>business world, it's not always as obvious. So that was

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<v Speaker 4>like one example where the dots really connected.

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<v Speaker 3>There were a couple's a couple of stuck about a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit of this into context of of AI love

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<v Speaker 3>because I love the frame of problem solving as a

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<v Speaker 3>way of understanding what the function of the technology is.

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<v Speaker 3>So I know that you guys did something, did some

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<v Speaker 3>work with I never know how to announced it is

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<v Speaker 3>it Sevia, Sevia, Sevia with the football club Sevia in Spain.

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<v Speaker 3>Tell me about Tell me a little bit about that.

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<v Speaker 3>What problem were they trying to solve and why did

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<v Speaker 3>they call you?

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<v Speaker 4>In every sports franchise is trying to get an advantage, right,

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<v Speaker 4>Let's just be that clear. Everybody's how can I use data, analytics, insights,

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<v Speaker 4>anything that will make us one percent better on the

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<v Speaker 4>field at some point in the future. And Sevie reached

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<v Speaker 4>out to us because they had.

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<v Speaker 5>Seen some of that.

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<v Speaker 4>We've done some work with the Toronto Raptors in the

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<v Speaker 4>past and others, and their thought was maybe there's something

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<v Speaker 4>we could do. They'd heard all about generative AI, that

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<v Speaker 4>heard about large language models.

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<v Speaker 5>And the problem, back to your point on.

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<v Speaker 4>Solving problems, was we want to do a way better

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<v Speaker 4>job of assessing talent, because really the lifeblood of a

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<v Speaker 4>sports franchise is can you continue to cultivate talent? Can

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<v Speaker 4>you find talent that others don't find? Can you see

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<v Speaker 4>something in somebody that they don't see in themselves or

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<v Speaker 4>maybe no other.

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<v Speaker 5>Team season them.

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<v Speaker 4>And we ended up building some of them called Scout Advisor,

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<v Speaker 4>which is built on Watson X, which basically just ingests

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<v Speaker 4>tons and tons of data, and we like to think

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<v Speaker 4>of it as finding, you know, the needle in the

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<v Speaker 4>haystack of you know, here's three players that aren't being considered.

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<v Speaker 4>They're not on the top teams today, and I think

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<v Speaker 4>working with them together, we found some pretty good insights

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<v Speaker 4>that's helped them out how What was intriguing to.

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<v Speaker 3>Me was we're not just talking about quantitative data. We're

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<v Speaker 3>also talking about qualitative data. But that's the puzzle part

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<v Speaker 3>of the thing that fastens me. How does what incorporate

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<v Speaker 3>qualitative analysis into that sort of so you just feeding

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<v Speaker 3>in scouting reports and things like that.

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<v Speaker 4>I got to realize think about how much I can

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<v Speaker 4>actually disclose it. But if you think about so, quantitative

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<v Speaker 4>is relatively easy.

0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:13.480
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, every team collects that.

0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.920
<v Speaker 4>You know, what's the forty yard dashable think they use

0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:22.679
<v Speaker 4>that term, certainly not in Spain. That's all quantitative. Qualitative

0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:26.839
<v Speaker 4>is what's happening off the field. It could be diet,

0:13:27.160 --> 0:13:30.960
<v Speaker 4>it could be habits, it could be behavior. You can

0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:33.720
<v Speaker 4>imagine a range of things that would all feed into

0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:38.439
<v Speaker 4>an athlete's performance and so relationships.

0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:41.160
<v Speaker 5>There's many different aspects, and.

0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:44.480
<v Speaker 4>So it's trying to figure out the right blend of

0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:47.720
<v Speaker 4>quantitative and qualitative that gives you a unique insight.

0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:50.720
<v Speaker 3>How transparent is that kind of system? I mean, is

0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:55.080
<v Speaker 3>it telling you it's saying pick this guy, not this guy,

0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:56.920
<v Speaker 3>But is it telling you why it prefers this guy

0:13:56.960 --> 0:13:57.520
<v Speaker 3>to this guy.

0:13:57.520 --> 0:14:00.800
<v Speaker 4>Is that I think for anything the realm of AI,

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:04.480
<v Speaker 4>you have to answer the why question. Otherwise you've fallen

0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:08.840
<v Speaker 4>into the trap of the you know, the proverbial black box.

0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:11.880
<v Speaker 4>And then wait, I made this decision, I'd never understood

0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:14.320
<v Speaker 4>why it didn't work out, So you always have to

0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:15.959
<v Speaker 4>answer why without a doubt?

0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:18.160
<v Speaker 3>And how is why answered?

0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:24.720
<v Speaker 4>Sources of data, the reasoning that went into it, and

0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:28.080
<v Speaker 4>so it's basically just tracing back the chain of how

0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:31.000
<v Speaker 4>you got to the answer. And in the case of

0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:33.680
<v Speaker 4>what we do in Watson X is we have IBM models.

0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:36.760
<v Speaker 4>We also use some other open source models, So it

0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:39.600
<v Speaker 4>would be which model was used, what was the data

0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:41.840
<v Speaker 4>set that was fed into that model, How is it

0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:42.640
<v Speaker 4>making decisions?

0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:45.920
<v Speaker 5>How is it performing? Is it robust?

0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:48.320
<v Speaker 4>Meaning is it reliable in terms of if you feed

0:14:48.360 --> 0:14:50.120
<v Speaker 4>it two of the same data set, do you get

0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:53.080
<v Speaker 4>the same answer? These are all the you know, the

0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:55.080
<v Speaker 4>technical aspects of understanding the why.

0:14:56.160 --> 0:15:00.320
<v Speaker 3>How quickly do you expect all professional sports franchises to

0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:02.480
<v Speaker 3>adopt some kind of are they already there? If I

0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:06.160
<v Speaker 3>went out and pulled the general managers of the one

0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:09.120
<v Speaker 3>hundred most valuable sports franchises in the world. How many

0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:11.760
<v Speaker 3>of them would be using some kind of AI system

0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:13.000
<v Speaker 3>to assist in their efforts.

0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:18.640
<v Speaker 4>One hundred and twenty percent would meaning that everybody's doing it,

0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:20.560
<v Speaker 4>and some think they're doing way more than they probably

0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:24.160
<v Speaker 4>actually are. So everybody's doing it. I think what's weird

0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:29.720
<v Speaker 4>about sports is everybody's so convinced that what they're doing

0:15:29.840 --> 0:15:34.160
<v Speaker 4>is unique that they generally speaking, don't want to work

0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:36.600
<v Speaker 4>with a third party to do it because they're afraid

0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:39.360
<v Speaker 4>that that would expose them. But in reality, I think

0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:42.240
<v Speaker 4>most are doing eighty to ninety percent of the same things.

0:15:43.880 --> 0:15:46.040
<v Speaker 4>So but without a doubt, everybody's doing it.

0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:51.080
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. Yeah. The other I say that I loved was

0:15:51.120 --> 0:15:54.240
<v Speaker 3>there was one but a shipping line tricon on the

0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:57.560
<v Speaker 3>Mississippi River. Tell me a little bit about that project.

0:15:57.640 --> 0:15:58.880
<v Speaker 3>What problem were they trying to solve?

0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:04.680
<v Speaker 4>Think about the problem that I would say everybody noticed

0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:08.280
<v Speaker 4>if you go back to twenty twenty was things are

0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:10.920
<v Speaker 4>getting hold held up in ports. It was actually an

0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:13.200
<v Speaker 4>article in the paper this morning kind of tracing the

0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:17.000
<v Speaker 4>history of what happened twenty twenty twenty one and why

0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:19.640
<v Speaker 4>ships were basically sitting at seas for months at a

0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:23.320
<v Speaker 4>time and at that stage, we just we had a

0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:28.840
<v Speaker 4>massive throughput issue. But moving even beyond the pandemic, you

0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:33.800
<v Speaker 4>can see it now with ships getting through like Panama Canal,

0:16:33.880 --> 0:16:36.640
<v Speaker 4>there's like a narrow window where you can get through,

0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:40.800
<v Speaker 4>and if you don't have your paperwork done, you don't

0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:42.880
<v Speaker 4>have the right approvals, you're not going through and it

0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:44.320
<v Speaker 4>may cost you a day or two and that's a

0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:48.200
<v Speaker 4>lot of money. In the shipping industry and the tricon example,

0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:52.440
<v Speaker 4>it's really just about when you're pulling into a port,

0:16:53.560 --> 0:16:56.840
<v Speaker 4>if you have the right paperwork done, you can get

0:16:56.920 --> 0:17:01.880
<v Speaker 4>goods off the ship very quickly. Ship a lot of food,

0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:06.240
<v Speaker 4>which by definition, since it's not packaged food, it's fresh food.

0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:10.359
<v Speaker 4>There is an expiration period and so if it takes

0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:15.680
<v Speaker 4>them an extra two hours, certainly multiple hours or a day,

0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:17.879
<v Speaker 4>they have a massive problem because then you're going to

0:17:17.920 --> 0:17:20.400
<v Speaker 4>deal with spoilage and so it's going to set you back.

0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:24.400
<v Speaker 4>And what we've worked with them on is using an

0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:28.440
<v Speaker 4>assistant that we've built in Watson X called Orchestrate, which

0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:33.840
<v Speaker 4>basically is just AI doing digital labor, so we can

0:17:34.000 --> 0:17:39.960
<v Speaker 4>replicate nearly any repetitive task and do that with software.

0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:40.600
<v Speaker 5>Instead of humans.

0:17:41.520 --> 0:17:45.000
<v Speaker 4>So as you may imagine shipping industry still has a

0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:48.000
<v Speaker 4>lot of paperwork that goes on and so being able

0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:51.040
<v Speaker 4>to take forms that normally would be multiple hours of

0:17:51.119 --> 0:17:53.160
<v Speaker 4>filling it out. Oh this isn't right, send it back.

0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:57.320
<v Speaker 4>We've basically built that as a digital skill inside of

0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:02.080
<v Speaker 4>WATSONEX orchestrate, and so now it's done in minutes.

0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:06.040
<v Speaker 3>They did they realize that they could have that kind

0:18:06.080 --> 0:18:08.240
<v Speaker 3>of efficiency by teaming up with you? Or is that

0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:12.320
<v Speaker 3>something you came to them and said, guys, we can

0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:14.120
<v Speaker 3>do this way better than you think. What's the.

0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:19.479
<v Speaker 4>I'd say it's always, it's always both sides coming together

0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:22.560
<v Speaker 4>at a moment that for some reason makes sense because

0:18:23.760 --> 0:18:25.560
<v Speaker 4>you could say, why didn't this happen like five years ago,

0:18:25.640 --> 0:18:29.920
<v Speaker 4>like this seems so obvious. Well, technology wasn't quite ready then,

0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:32.600
<v Speaker 4>I would say, But they knew they had a need

0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:36.639
<v Speaker 4>because I forget what the precise number is, but you know,

0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:40.680
<v Speaker 4>reduction of spoilage has massive impact on their bottom line,

0:18:42.680 --> 0:18:44.160
<v Speaker 4>and so they knew they had a need.

0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:48.120
<v Speaker 5>We thought we could solve it and the two together.

0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:50.760
<v Speaker 3>Who did you guys go to them?

0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:50.960
<v Speaker 5>Though?

0:18:51.840 --> 0:18:52.560
<v Speaker 3>Did they come to you?

0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:56.199
<v Speaker 4>I recall that this one was an inbound meaning they

0:18:56.200 --> 0:18:59.520
<v Speaker 4>had reached out to IBM and we'd like to solve

0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:01.359
<v Speaker 4>this problem. I think it went into one of our

0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:04.440
<v Speaker 4>digital centers if I recall it a literary phone.

0:19:04.200 --> 0:19:09.359
<v Speaker 3>Call, but the other the reverse is more interesting to

0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:11.640
<v Speaker 3>me because there seems to be a very, very large

0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:14.520
<v Speaker 3>universe of people who have problems that could be solved

0:19:14.680 --> 0:19:19.480
<v Speaker 3>this way and they don't realize it. What's your Is

0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:22.600
<v Speaker 3>there a shining example of this of someone you just

0:19:22.680 --> 0:19:25.240
<v Speaker 3>can't you just think could benefit so much and isn't

0:19:25.240 --> 0:19:26.160
<v Speaker 3>benefiting right now?

0:19:28.920 --> 0:19:30.359
<v Speaker 5>Maybe I'll answer it slightly differently.

0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:35.320
<v Speaker 4>I'm I'm surprised by how many people can benefit that

0:19:35.400 --> 0:19:38.359
<v Speaker 4>you wouldn't even logically think of. First, let me give

0:19:38.359 --> 0:19:46.200
<v Speaker 4>you an example. There's a franchiser of hair salons, sport

0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:49.520
<v Speaker 4>Clips is the name. My sons used to go there

0:19:49.520 --> 0:19:51.280
<v Speaker 4>for haircuts because they have like TVs and you can

0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:54.080
<v Speaker 4>watch sports, so they loved that they got entertained while

0:19:54.080 --> 0:19:57.080
<v Speaker 4>they would get their haircut. I think the last place

0:19:57.080 --> 0:19:59.600
<v Speaker 4>that you would think is using AI today would be

0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:01.880
<v Speaker 4>a franchiser of hair salons.

0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:05.560
<v Speaker 5>But just follow it through.

0:20:06.640 --> 0:20:09.639
<v Speaker 4>The biggest part of how they run their business is

0:20:09.680 --> 0:20:12.840
<v Speaker 4>can I get people to cut hair? And this is

0:20:12.840 --> 0:20:15.320
<v Speaker 4>the high turnover industry because there's a lot of different

0:20:15.320 --> 0:20:16.840
<v Speaker 4>places you can work if you want to cut hair.

0:20:17.240 --> 0:20:19.359
<v Speaker 4>People actually get injured cutting hair because you're on your

0:20:19.400 --> 0:20:22.879
<v Speaker 4>feet all day, that type of thing. And they're using

0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:28.240
<v Speaker 4>same technology orchestrate as part of their recruiting process. How

0:20:28.240 --> 0:20:32.440
<v Speaker 4>can they automate a lot of people submitting resumes, who

0:20:32.480 --> 0:20:35.800
<v Speaker 4>they speak to, how they qualify them for the position.

0:20:36.560 --> 0:20:39.119
<v Speaker 4>And so the reason I give that example is the

0:20:39.560 --> 0:20:45.000
<v Speaker 4>opportunity for AI, which is unlike other technologies, is truly unlimited.

0:20:46.600 --> 0:20:50.200
<v Speaker 4>It will touch every single business. It's not the realm

0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:53.040
<v Speaker 4>of the fortune five hundred or the fortune one thousand.

0:20:53.840 --> 0:20:54.679
<v Speaker 5>This is the.

0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:57.720
<v Speaker 4>Fortune any size. And I think that may be one

0:20:57.760 --> 0:20:59.639
<v Speaker 4>thing that people underestimate about.

0:21:00.680 --> 0:21:03.399
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, what about I mean I was thinking about education

0:21:03.760 --> 0:21:07.159
<v Speaker 3>as a kind of I mean, education is a perennial

0:21:09.800 --> 0:21:12.320
<v Speaker 3>whipping boy for you guys that are living in the

0:21:12.400 --> 0:21:18.160
<v Speaker 3>nineteenth century, right. I'm just curious about if a superintendent

0:21:18.160 --> 0:21:20.159
<v Speaker 3>of a public school system or the president of the

0:21:20.240 --> 0:21:23.359
<v Speaker 3>university sat down and had lunch with you and said,

0:21:25.000 --> 0:21:27.520
<v Speaker 3>do the university first. My cost are out of control,

0:21:28.200 --> 0:21:34.000
<v Speaker 3>my enrollment is down, my students hate me, and my

0:21:34.080 --> 0:21:40.719
<v Speaker 3>board is revolting help. How would you think about helping

0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:41.680
<v Speaker 3>someone in that situation.

0:21:43.280 --> 0:21:45.240
<v Speaker 5>I spend some time with universities.

0:21:45.280 --> 0:21:48.720
<v Speaker 4>I like to go back and visit Alma Maters, where

0:21:48.720 --> 0:21:50.720
<v Speaker 4>I went to school, and so.

0:21:50.800 --> 0:21:51.680
<v Speaker 5>I do that every year.

0:21:52.560 --> 0:21:55.320
<v Speaker 4>The challenge I have hall of Seeming university is there

0:21:55.359 --> 0:21:58.240
<v Speaker 4>has to be a will. Yeah, and I'm not sure

0:21:58.240 --> 0:22:03.840
<v Speaker 4>the incentives are quite right today because bringing in new technology,

0:22:03.920 --> 0:22:05.720
<v Speaker 4>let's say we want to go after we can help

0:22:05.840 --> 0:22:10.480
<v Speaker 4>you figure out student recruiting or how you automate more

0:22:10.480 --> 0:22:15.160
<v Speaker 4>of your education, everybody suddenly feels threatened that university.

0:22:15.720 --> 0:22:16.800
<v Speaker 5>Hold on, that's my job.

0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:19.720
<v Speaker 4>I'm the one that decides that, or I'm the one

0:22:19.760 --> 0:22:22.800
<v Speaker 4>that wants to dictate the course. So there has to

0:22:22.800 --> 0:22:26.679
<v Speaker 4>be a will. So I think it's very possible, and

0:22:27.560 --> 0:22:30.000
<v Speaker 4>I do think over the next decade you will see

0:22:30.040 --> 0:22:32.400
<v Speaker 4>some universities that jump all over this and they will

0:22:32.440 --> 0:22:34.800
<v Speaker 4>move ahead, and you see others that do not.

0:22:35.680 --> 0:22:37.600
<v Speaker 5>Because it's very possible.

0:22:39.200 --> 0:22:42.159
<v Speaker 3>Where how does when you say there has to be

0:22:42.200 --> 0:22:44.760
<v Speaker 3>a will? Is that the kind of is that a

0:22:44.880 --> 0:22:46.800
<v Speaker 3>kind of thing that that people that I beb to

0:22:46.840 --> 0:22:51.320
<v Speaker 3>think about? Like when in this conversation you hypothetical conversation,

0:22:51.359 --> 0:22:53.880
<v Speaker 3>you might have with the university president, would you give

0:22:53.920 --> 0:22:59.360
<v Speaker 3>advice on on where the will comes from.

0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:01.760
<v Speaker 4>I don't do that as much in a university context.

0:23:01.760 --> 0:23:05.560
<v Speaker 4>I do that every day in a business context, because

0:23:06.320 --> 0:23:08.360
<v Speaker 4>if you can find the right person in a business

0:23:08.359 --> 0:23:12.480
<v Speaker 4>that wants to focus on growth or the bottom line

0:23:13.000 --> 0:23:15.600
<v Speaker 4>or how do you create more productivity. Yes, it's going

0:23:15.600 --> 0:23:19.719
<v Speaker 4>to create a lot of organizational resistance potentially, but you

0:23:19.720 --> 0:23:21.960
<v Speaker 4>can find somebody that will figure out how to push

0:23:21.960 --> 0:23:27.040
<v Speaker 4>that through. I think for universities, I think that's also possible.

0:23:27.320 --> 0:23:30.000
<v Speaker 4>I'm not sure there's there's there's a return on investment

0:23:30.040 --> 0:23:30.720
<v Speaker 4>for us to do that.

0:23:31.040 --> 0:23:38.720
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, yeah, God, let's let's find some terms. AI years.

0:23:39.119 --> 0:23:41.400
<v Speaker 3>I told you'd like to use. What does that mean?

0:23:43.160 --> 0:23:45.879
<v Speaker 4>We just started using this term literally in the last

0:23:45.920 --> 0:23:47.640
<v Speaker 4>three months, and.

0:23:49.320 --> 0:23:51.560
<v Speaker 5>It was it was what we observed.

0:23:51.200 --> 0:23:55.800
<v Speaker 4>Internally, which is most technology you build, you say, all right,

0:23:55.840 --> 0:23:58.480
<v Speaker 4>what's going to happen in year one, year two, year three,

0:23:58.840 --> 0:24:02.400
<v Speaker 4>and it's, you know, largely by a calendar.

0:24:02.880 --> 0:24:04.640
<v Speaker 5>AI years are the idea that what.

0:24:04.760 --> 0:24:07.240
<v Speaker 4>Used to be a year is now like a week,

0:24:08.840 --> 0:24:11.879
<v Speaker 4>and that is how fast the technology is moving. Do

0:24:11.920 --> 0:24:14.280
<v Speaker 4>you give you an example. We had one client we're

0:24:14.320 --> 0:24:18.679
<v Speaker 4>working with. They're using one of our granite models, and

0:24:18.720 --> 0:24:21.280
<v Speaker 4>the results they were getting we're not very good. Accuracy

0:24:21.359 --> 0:24:24.119
<v Speaker 4>was not there, their performance was not there. So I

0:24:24.160 --> 0:24:25.639
<v Speaker 4>was like scratching my head. I was like, what is

0:24:25.640 --> 0:24:30.760
<v Speaker 4>going on? They were Financial services, the bank, So I'm

0:24:30.760 --> 0:24:32.640
<v Speaker 4>scratching my head, like what is going on? Everybody else

0:24:32.720 --> 0:24:36.240
<v Speaker 4>is getting this and like these results are horrible. And

0:24:36.800 --> 0:24:39.120
<v Speaker 4>I said to the team, which version of the model

0:24:39.119 --> 0:24:43.400
<v Speaker 4>are you using? This was in February, Like, we're using

0:24:43.440 --> 0:24:46.560
<v Speaker 4>the one from October. I was like, all right, now

0:24:46.560 --> 0:24:50.280
<v Speaker 4>we know precisely the problem because the model from October

0:24:50.320 --> 0:24:53.200
<v Speaker 4>is effectively useless now since we're here in February.

0:24:53.280 --> 0:24:57.400
<v Speaker 3>Serious, actually useless, completely useless.

0:24:57.560 --> 0:25:00.520
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that is how fast this has changed. And so

0:25:01.000 --> 0:25:05.200
<v Speaker 4>the minute, same use case, same data, you give them

0:25:05.200 --> 0:25:09.760
<v Speaker 4>the model from late January instead of October, the results

0:25:09.800 --> 0:25:10.520
<v Speaker 4>are off the charts.

0:25:11.080 --> 0:25:14.680
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. Wait, so what exactly happened between October and January?

0:25:14.880 --> 0:25:15.960
<v Speaker 5>The model got way better?

0:25:16.520 --> 0:25:18.239
<v Speaker 3>Could dig into that, Like, what do you mean by

0:25:18.280 --> 0:25:18.679
<v Speaker 3>the way.

0:25:18.560 --> 0:25:19.760
<v Speaker 5>We are constant?

0:25:19.800 --> 0:25:24.400
<v Speaker 4>We have built large compute infrastructure where we're doing model training,

0:25:25.040 --> 0:25:27.439
<v Speaker 4>and to be clear, model training is the realm of

0:25:27.600 --> 0:25:31.800
<v Speaker 4>probably in the world. My guess is five to ten companies.

0:25:32.880 --> 0:25:33.240
<v Speaker 5>And so.

0:25:34.760 --> 0:25:37.920
<v Speaker 4>You build a model, you're constantly training it, You're doing

0:25:37.960 --> 0:25:41.480
<v Speaker 4>fine tuning, you're doing more training, you're adding data every day,

0:25:41.520 --> 0:25:45.760
<v Speaker 4>every hour it gets better. And so how does it

0:25:45.800 --> 0:25:48.320
<v Speaker 4>do that. You're feeding it more data, you're feeding it

0:25:48.400 --> 0:25:53.359
<v Speaker 4>more live examples. We're using things like synthetic data at

0:25:53.359 --> 0:25:55.560
<v Speaker 4>this point, which is we're basically creating data to do

0:25:55.600 --> 0:25:58.840
<v Speaker 4>the training as well. All of this feeds into how

0:25:58.920 --> 0:26:00.160
<v Speaker 4>useful the model is.

0:26:00.760 --> 0:26:02.720
<v Speaker 5>And so using the.

0:26:02.680 --> 0:26:06.040
<v Speaker 4>October model, those were the results in October, just a fact,

0:26:06.040 --> 0:26:09.320
<v Speaker 4>that's how good it was then. But back to the

0:26:09.359 --> 0:26:12.840
<v Speaker 4>concept of AI years, two weeks is a long time.

0:26:13.960 --> 0:26:16.960
<v Speaker 3>Does that are we in a steep part of the

0:26:17.000 --> 0:26:19.800
<v Speaker 3>model learning carve or do you expect this to continue

0:26:19.840 --> 0:26:21.560
<v Speaker 3>along this at this pace?

0:26:23.160 --> 0:26:27.399
<v Speaker 5>I think that is the big question and don't have

0:26:27.440 --> 0:26:28.120
<v Speaker 5>an answer yet.

0:26:28.560 --> 0:26:30.520
<v Speaker 4>By definition, at some point you would think it would

0:26:30.520 --> 0:26:33.040
<v Speaker 4>have to slow down a bit, but it's not obvious

0:26:33.080 --> 0:26:35.440
<v Speaker 4>that that is on the horizon.

0:26:35.040 --> 0:26:38.600
<v Speaker 3>Still speeding up. Yes, how fast can it get?

0:26:41.040 --> 0:26:44.199
<v Speaker 4>We've debated can you actually have better results in the

0:26:44.240 --> 0:26:49.000
<v Speaker 4>afternoon than you did in the morning. Really it's nuts, Yeah,

0:26:49.000 --> 0:26:51.760
<v Speaker 4>I know, but that's why we came up with this

0:26:51.840 --> 0:26:53.840
<v Speaker 4>term because I think you also have to think of

0:26:53.920 --> 0:26:55.600
<v Speaker 4>like concepts that.

0:26:57.720 --> 0:26:58.719
<v Speaker 5>Gets people's attention.

0:26:58.920 --> 0:27:02.080
<v Speaker 3>So you basically earning into a bakery, you're like the

0:27:02.119 --> 0:27:04.359
<v Speaker 3>bread from yesterday. You know you can have it for

0:27:04.440 --> 0:27:08.080
<v Speaker 3>twenty five cents. But I mean you do proferential pricing.

0:27:08.119 --> 0:27:12.720
<v Speaker 3>You could say we'll judge you X for yesterday's model,

0:27:13.160 --> 0:27:14.600
<v Speaker 3>two X for today's model.

0:27:16.200 --> 0:27:20.119
<v Speaker 4>I think that's dangerous as a merchandising strategy, but I

0:27:20.119 --> 0:27:20.720
<v Speaker 4>guess your point.

0:27:21.119 --> 0:27:24.240
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, but that's crazy. And this, by the way, so

0:27:24.280 --> 0:27:26.840
<v Speaker 3>this model is the same true for almost You're talking

0:27:26.880 --> 0:27:30.240
<v Speaker 3>specifically about a model that was created to help some

0:27:30.320 --> 0:27:34.600
<v Speaker 3>aspect of a financial services So is that kind of

0:27:34.720 --> 0:27:37.760
<v Speaker 3>model accelerating faster and running faster than other models for

0:27:37.840 --> 0:27:39.240
<v Speaker 3>other kinds of problems?

0:27:39.600 --> 0:27:44.800
<v Speaker 4>So this domain was code. Yeah, so by definition, if

0:27:44.800 --> 0:27:48.359
<v Speaker 4>you're feel feeding in more data some more code, you

0:27:48.359 --> 0:27:49.440
<v Speaker 4>get those kind of results.

0:27:50.400 --> 0:27:51.720
<v Speaker 5>It does depend on the model type.

0:27:52.000 --> 0:27:54.439
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, there's a lot of code in the world, and

0:27:54.480 --> 0:27:57.280
<v Speaker 4>so we can find that we can create it. Like

0:27:57.320 --> 0:28:01.800
<v Speaker 4>I said, there's other aspect x where there's probably less

0:28:01.960 --> 0:28:05.000
<v Speaker 4>inputs available, which means you probably won't get the same

0:28:05.080 --> 0:28:08.200
<v Speaker 4>level of iteration. But for code that's certainly the cycle

0:28:08.240 --> 0:28:09.000
<v Speaker 4>times that we're seeing.

0:28:09.040 --> 0:28:11.639
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and how do you know that Let's stick with

0:28:11.680 --> 0:28:14.320
<v Speaker 3>this one example of this model you have. How do

0:28:14.359 --> 0:28:18.640
<v Speaker 3>you know that your model is better than big company

0:28:18.680 --> 0:28:21.680
<v Speaker 3>B down the street? The client asks you, why would

0:28:21.680 --> 0:28:24.680
<v Speaker 3>I go with IBM as opposed to some the s

0:28:24.880 --> 0:28:27.000
<v Speaker 3>firm in the valley that says, as they have a

0:28:27.000 --> 0:28:31.240
<v Speaker 3>model on this, what's your how do you frame your advantage?

0:28:32.560 --> 0:28:35.719
<v Speaker 4>Well, we benchmark all of this, and I think the

0:28:35.720 --> 0:28:41.000
<v Speaker 4>most important is metric is price performance, not price, not performance,

0:28:41.000 --> 0:28:45.360
<v Speaker 4>but the combination of the two. And we're super competitive there. Well,

0:28:45.920 --> 0:28:48.360
<v Speaker 4>for what we just released, with what we've done in

0:28:48.440 --> 0:28:50.920
<v Speaker 4>open source, we know that nobody's close to us right

0:28:50.960 --> 0:28:53.960
<v Speaker 4>now on code now. To be clear, that will probably change, yeah,

0:28:54.120 --> 0:28:57.120
<v Speaker 4>because it's like leapfrog. People will jump ahead, then we

0:28:57.280 --> 0:29:02.640
<v Speaker 4>jump back ahead. But we're very confident that with everything

0:29:02.680 --> 0:29:04.520
<v Speaker 4>we've done in the last few months, we've taken a

0:29:04.600 --> 0:29:05.640
<v Speaker 4>huge leap forward here.

0:29:05.840 --> 0:29:08.880
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's I mean, this goes back to the point

0:29:08.880 --> 0:29:11.640
<v Speaker 3>I was making in the beginning, so about the difference

0:29:11.680 --> 0:29:16.360
<v Speaker 3>between your twenty something self in ninety nine and yourself today.

0:29:16.680 --> 0:29:21.120
<v Speaker 3>But this time compression has to be a crazy adjustment.

0:29:21.560 --> 0:29:24.640
<v Speaker 3>So the concept of what you're working on and how

0:29:24.680 --> 0:29:28.000
<v Speaker 3>you make decisions internally and things has to undergo this

0:29:28.080 --> 0:29:31.800
<v Speaker 3>kind of revolution if you're switching from I mean back

0:29:31.800 --> 0:29:35.240
<v Speaker 3>in the day, a model might be useful for how

0:29:35.280 --> 0:29:36.640
<v Speaker 3>long years.

0:29:36.440 --> 0:29:40.040
<v Speaker 4>Years I think about you know, statistical models that set

0:29:40.080 --> 0:29:44.360
<v Speaker 4>inside things like SPSS, which is a product that a

0:29:44.360 --> 0:29:45.200
<v Speaker 4>lot of students.

0:29:45.000 --> 0:29:45.640
<v Speaker 5>Use around the world.

0:29:45.680 --> 0:29:47.640
<v Speaker 4>I mean, those have been the same models for twenty

0:29:47.720 --> 0:29:49.959
<v Speaker 4>years and they're still very good at what they do.

0:29:50.760 --> 0:29:54.640
<v Speaker 4>And so yes, it's a completely it's a completely different

0:29:55.520 --> 0:29:58.160
<v Speaker 4>moment for how fast this is moving. And I think

0:29:58.160 --> 0:30:02.120
<v Speaker 4>it just raises the bar for everybody, whether you're a

0:30:02.120 --> 0:30:06.360
<v Speaker 4>technology provider like us, or you're a bank or an

0:30:06.400 --> 0:30:09.960
<v Speaker 4>insurance company or a shipping company, to say, how do

0:30:10.040 --> 0:30:14.360
<v Speaker 4>you really change your culture to be way more aggressive

0:30:15.560 --> 0:30:16.680
<v Speaker 4>than you normally would be.

0:30:18.720 --> 0:30:21.320
<v Speaker 3>Does this means it's a weird question, but does this

0:30:21.360 --> 0:30:25.360
<v Speaker 3>mean a different set of kind of personality or character

0:30:25.400 --> 0:30:28.840
<v Speaker 3>traits are necessary for a decision maker in tech now

0:30:28.880 --> 0:30:30.520
<v Speaker 3>than twenty five years ago.

0:30:33.640 --> 0:30:37.400
<v Speaker 4>There's a book I saw recently, it's called The Geek Way,

0:30:37.720 --> 0:30:42.520
<v Speaker 4>which talked about how technology companies have started to operate

0:30:42.560 --> 0:30:46.840
<v Speaker 4>in different ways maybe than many you know, traditional companies,

0:30:48.280 --> 0:30:55.040
<v Speaker 4>and more about being data driven, more about delegation. Are

0:30:55.080 --> 0:30:58.640
<v Speaker 4>you willing to have the smartest person in the room

0:30:58.640 --> 0:31:00.560
<v Speaker 4>make decisions opposed to the high paid.

0:31:00.360 --> 0:31:01.280
<v Speaker 5>Person in the room.

0:31:01.760 --> 0:31:04.560
<v Speaker 4>I think these are all different aspects that every company

0:31:04.600 --> 0:31:05.280
<v Speaker 4>is going to face.

0:31:05.720 --> 0:31:10.520
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, next term, talk about open. When you use

0:31:10.560 --> 0:31:11.680
<v Speaker 3>that word open, what do you mean.

0:31:14.200 --> 0:31:16.960
<v Speaker 4>I think there's really only one definition of open, which

0:31:17.000 --> 0:31:22.040
<v Speaker 4>is for technology, is open source? An open source means

0:31:22.680 --> 0:31:28.560
<v Speaker 4>the code is freely available. Anybody can see it, access it,

0:31:29.480 --> 0:31:30.320
<v Speaker 4>contribute to it.

0:31:30.600 --> 0:31:33.520
<v Speaker 3>And what is Tell me about why that's an important principle.

0:31:36.760 --> 0:31:39.880
<v Speaker 4>When you take a topic like AI, I think it

0:31:39.920 --> 0:31:43.720
<v Speaker 4>would be really bad for the world if this was

0:31:43.760 --> 0:31:48.320
<v Speaker 4>in the hands of one or two companies, or three

0:31:48.400 --> 0:31:51.680
<v Speaker 4>or four, doesn't matter the number some small number. Think

0:31:51.680 --> 0:31:56.280
<v Speaker 4>about like in history sometimes early nineteen hundreds, the Interstate

0:31:56.360 --> 0:32:00.120
<v Speaker 4>Commerce Commission was created, and the whole idea was to

0:32:00.160 --> 0:32:05.640
<v Speaker 4>protect farmers from railroads. Meaning they wanted to allow free trade,

0:32:06.040 --> 0:32:08.440
<v Speaker 4>but they knew that, well, there's only so many railroad tracks,

0:32:08.440 --> 0:32:11.800
<v Speaker 4>so we need to protect farmers from the shipping costs

0:32:11.800 --> 0:32:15.720
<v Speaker 4>that railroads could impose. So good idea, but over time

0:32:16.040 --> 0:32:19.800
<v Speaker 4>that got completely overtaken by the railroad lobby, and then

0:32:19.800 --> 0:32:23.680
<v Speaker 4>they use that to basically just increase prices, and it

0:32:23.720 --> 0:32:27.800
<v Speaker 4>made the lives of farmers way more difficult. I think

0:32:27.800 --> 0:32:31.240
<v Speaker 4>you could play the same analogy through with AI. If

0:32:31.280 --> 0:32:35.520
<v Speaker 4>you allow a handful of companies to have the technology,

0:32:35.680 --> 0:32:38.240
<v Speaker 4>you regulate around the principles of with those one or

0:32:38.240 --> 0:32:39.040
<v Speaker 4>two companies, then.

0:32:38.920 --> 0:32:41.680
<v Speaker 5>You've trapped the entire world. Think that would be very bad.

0:32:43.040 --> 0:32:46.360
<v Speaker 5>So the danger of that happening for sure.

0:32:46.480 --> 0:32:49.640
<v Speaker 4>I mean there's companies in Watson in Washington every week

0:32:50.120 --> 0:32:54.640
<v Speaker 4>trying to achieve that outcome. And so the opposite of

0:32:54.680 --> 0:32:56.360
<v Speaker 4>that is to say it's going to be an open

0:32:56.360 --> 0:33:01.480
<v Speaker 4>source because nobody can dispute opens because it's right there,

0:33:01.520 --> 0:33:05.640
<v Speaker 4>everybody can see it. And so I'm a strong believer

0:33:05.640 --> 0:33:07.120
<v Speaker 4>that open source will win for AI.

0:33:07.160 --> 0:33:07.880
<v Speaker 5>It has to win.

0:33:08.640 --> 0:33:13.720
<v Speaker 4>It's not just important for business, but it's important for humans.

0:33:14.480 --> 0:33:17.600
<v Speaker 3>On the I'm curious about on the list of things

0:33:17.640 --> 0:33:21.400
<v Speaker 3>you worry about, actually, let me before I ask, let

0:33:21.440 --> 0:33:23.880
<v Speaker 3>me ask this question very generally. What is the list

0:33:23.920 --> 0:33:26.760
<v Speaker 3>of things you worry about? What's your top five business

0:33:26.760 --> 0:33:27.920
<v Speaker 3>related worries right now?

0:33:29.400 --> 0:33:31.720
<v Speaker 5>Tops from those are the first question. We could be

0:33:31.760 --> 0:33:33.400
<v Speaker 5>here for hours for me to answer.

0:33:34.760 --> 0:33:36.680
<v Speaker 3>I did say business related. We could leave you know,

0:33:37.960 --> 0:33:40.240
<v Speaker 3>your kids haircuts got it out of.

0:33:40.120 --> 0:33:45.080
<v Speaker 4>The Number one is always it's the thing that's probably

0:33:45.120 --> 0:33:50.240
<v Speaker 4>always been true, which is just people. Do we have

0:33:50.280 --> 0:33:52.440
<v Speaker 4>the right skills? Are we doing a good job of

0:33:52.480 --> 0:33:55.920
<v Speaker 4>training our people? Are our people doing a good job

0:33:55.960 --> 0:33:59.840
<v Speaker 4>of working with clients? Like that's number one? Number two

0:33:59.880 --> 0:34:06.360
<v Speaker 4>is innovation? Are we pushing the envelope enough? Are we

0:34:06.440 --> 0:34:11.200
<v Speaker 4>staying ahead? Number three is which kind of feeds into

0:34:11.239 --> 0:34:13.200
<v Speaker 4>the innovation one is risk taking?

0:34:13.200 --> 0:34:16.680
<v Speaker 5>Are we taking enough risk? Without risk, there is no growth?

0:34:17.600 --> 0:34:22.080
<v Speaker 4>And I think the trap that every larger company inevitably

0:34:22.120 --> 0:34:27.440
<v Speaker 4>falls into is conservatism. Things are good enough, and so

0:34:27.600 --> 0:34:30.759
<v Speaker 4>it's are we pushing the envelope? Are we taking enough

0:34:30.880 --> 0:34:33.640
<v Speaker 4>risk to really have an impact? I'd say those are

0:34:33.640 --> 0:34:35.400
<v Speaker 4>probably the top three that I spend.

0:34:35.680 --> 0:34:39.239
<v Speaker 3>Last turn to define productivity paradox something. I know you've

0:34:39.400 --> 0:34:40.960
<v Speaker 3>thought a lot about what does that mean?

0:34:42.400 --> 0:34:45.040
<v Speaker 4>So I started thinking hard about this because all I

0:34:45.160 --> 0:34:50.920
<v Speaker 4>saw and read every day was fear about AI, and

0:34:52.000 --> 0:34:55.640
<v Speaker 4>I studied economics, and so I kind of went back

0:34:55.640 --> 0:34:59.480
<v Speaker 4>to like basic economics, and there's been like a macro

0:34:59.600 --> 0:35:03.600
<v Speaker 4>invest formula. I guess I would say it's been around

0:35:03.600 --> 0:35:11.680
<v Speaker 4>forever that says growth comes from productivity growth plus population

0:35:11.800 --> 0:35:18.520
<v Speaker 4>growth plus debt growth. So if those three things are working, you'll.

0:35:18.360 --> 0:35:19.320
<v Speaker 5>Get GDP growth.

0:35:20.600 --> 0:35:22.239
<v Speaker 4>And so then you think about that and you say, well,

0:35:23.120 --> 0:35:26.800
<v Speaker 4>debt growth, we're probably not going back to zero percent

0:35:26.880 --> 0:35:29.400
<v Speaker 4>interest rates, so to some extent there's going to be

0:35:29.400 --> 0:35:30.160
<v Speaker 4>a ceiling on that.

0:35:31.400 --> 0:35:32.080
<v Speaker 5>And then you.

0:35:32.000 --> 0:35:36.960
<v Speaker 4>Look at population growth. There are shockingly few countries or

0:35:37.040 --> 0:35:39.440
<v Speaker 4>places in the world that will see population growth over

0:35:39.480 --> 0:35:42.280
<v Speaker 4>the next thirty to fifty years. In fact, most places

0:35:42.320 --> 0:35:46.560
<v Speaker 4>are not even at replacement rates. And so I'm like,

0:35:46.560 --> 0:35:48.560
<v Speaker 4>all right, so population growth is not going to be there.

0:35:49.880 --> 0:35:51.840
<v Speaker 4>So that would mean if you just take it to

0:35:52.480 --> 0:35:59.920
<v Speaker 4>the extreme, the only chance of continued GDP growth is productivity.

0:36:00.960 --> 0:36:07.040
<v Speaker 4>And the best way to solve productivity is AI That's

0:36:07.040 --> 0:36:09.759
<v Speaker 4>why I say it's a paradox. On one hand, everybody's

0:36:09.800 --> 0:36:13.520
<v Speaker 4>scared after death it's going to take over the world,

0:36:14.040 --> 0:36:18.240
<v Speaker 4>take all of our jobs, ruin us. But in reality

0:36:18.280 --> 0:36:20.200
<v Speaker 4>maybe it's the other way, which is it's the only

0:36:20.239 --> 0:36:21.320
<v Speaker 4>thing that can save us.

0:36:21.600 --> 0:36:23.880
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, and if you believe.

0:36:23.640 --> 0:36:26.600
<v Speaker 4>That economic equation, which I think has proven quite true

0:36:26.640 --> 0:36:29.080
<v Speaker 4>over hundreds of years, I do think it's probably the

0:36:29.120 --> 0:36:30.080
<v Speaker 4>only thing that can save us.

0:36:31.560 --> 0:36:34.680
<v Speaker 3>Actually looked at the numbers yesterday for totally random reason

0:36:35.000 --> 0:36:38.160
<v Speaker 3>on population growth in Europe and receive this is a

0:36:38.160 --> 0:36:40.799
<v Speaker 3>special bonus question. We'll see how smart you are. Which

0:36:40.840 --> 0:36:45.160
<v Speaker 3>country in Europe? Condeently, Europe has the highest population growth?

0:36:46.880 --> 0:36:52.920
<v Speaker 4>It's small continental Europe, probably one of the Nordics, I would.

0:36:52.680 --> 0:36:58.640
<v Speaker 3>Guess, close. Luxembourg. Okay, something that's going on in Luxembourg.

0:37:00.600 --> 0:37:02.680
<v Speaker 3>I feel like, well, all of us need to investigate.

0:37:03.000 --> 0:37:05.000
<v Speaker 3>They're at one point four nine, which in the day,

0:37:05.040 --> 0:37:08.280
<v Speaker 3>by the way, would be a relatively that's the best

0:37:08.320 --> 0:37:11.200
<v Speaker 3>performing country. I mean in the day, you'd countries had

0:37:11.280 --> 0:37:14.560
<v Speaker 3>routinely had two points something, you know, percent growth in

0:37:15.000 --> 0:37:18.480
<v Speaker 3>a given year. Last question, you're writing a book. Now

0:37:18.800 --> 0:37:21.680
<v Speaker 3>we were talking chatting about it backstage, and now I

0:37:21.719 --> 0:37:25.880
<v Speaker 3>appreciate the paradox of this book, which is in a

0:37:26.120 --> 0:37:28.239
<v Speaker 3>universe with a model, is better in the afternoon than

0:37:28.280 --> 0:37:30.080
<v Speaker 3>it is in the morning. How do you write a

0:37:30.080 --> 0:37:33.680
<v Speaker 3>book that's like printed on paper? I expected to reuseful.

0:37:37.400 --> 0:37:41.320
<v Speaker 4>This is the challenge. And I am an incredible author

0:37:41.360 --> 0:37:44.399
<v Speaker 4>of useless books. I mean, most of what I've spent

0:37:44.520 --> 0:37:47.760
<v Speaker 4>time on in the last decade of stuff that's completely useless,

0:37:47.880 --> 0:37:52.160
<v Speaker 4>like a year after it's written. And so when we

0:37:52.160 --> 0:37:53.560
<v Speaker 4>were talking about it, I was like, I would like

0:37:53.560 --> 0:37:56.960
<v Speaker 4>to do something around AI that's timeless.

0:37:56.200 --> 0:37:59.919
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, that would be useful ten or twenty years.

0:38:00.160 --> 0:38:04.400
<v Speaker 4>No, But then to your point, so, how is that

0:38:04.440 --> 0:38:08.759
<v Speaker 4>even remotely possible if the model is better in the

0:38:08.760 --> 0:38:11.600
<v Speaker 4>afternoon and in the morning. So that's the challenge in

0:38:11.640 --> 0:38:14.240
<v Speaker 4>front of us. But the book is around AI value creation,

0:38:14.880 --> 0:38:18.160
<v Speaker 4>so kind of links to this productivity paradox, and how

0:38:18.200 --> 0:38:25.040
<v Speaker 4>do you actually get sustained value out of AI, out

0:38:25.080 --> 0:38:29.600
<v Speaker 4>of automation, out of data science. And so the biggest

0:38:29.640 --> 0:38:31.440
<v Speaker 4>challenge in front of us is can we make this

0:38:31.680 --> 0:38:34.719
<v Speaker 4>relevant that's the day that it's published.

0:38:34.800 --> 0:38:36.040
<v Speaker 3>How are you setting out to do that?

0:38:38.160 --> 0:38:41.160
<v Speaker 4>I think you have to to some extent level it

0:38:41.239 --> 0:38:43.880
<v Speaker 4>up to bigger concepts, which is kind of why I

0:38:43.920 --> 0:38:49.520
<v Speaker 4>go to things like macroeconomics, population geography as opposed to

0:38:49.600 --> 0:38:53.000
<v Speaker 4>going into the weeds of the technology itself. If you

0:38:53.080 --> 0:38:55.759
<v Speaker 4>write about this is how you get better performance out

0:38:55.760 --> 0:38:59.640
<v Speaker 4>of a model, we can agree that will be completely

0:38:59.680 --> 0:39:02.600
<v Speaker 4>useful two years from now, maybe even two months from now,

0:39:03.120 --> 0:39:07.280
<v Speaker 4>and so it will be less in the technical detail

0:39:08.000 --> 0:39:11.520
<v Speaker 4>and more of what is sustained value creation for AI,

0:39:12.200 --> 0:39:14.839
<v Speaker 4>which if you think on what is hopefully a ten

0:39:14.920 --> 0:39:18.520
<v Speaker 4>or twenty year period, it's probably we're kind of substituting

0:39:18.640 --> 0:39:21.520
<v Speaker 4>AI for technology. Now I've realized, because I think this

0:39:21.560 --> 0:39:25.080
<v Speaker 4>has always been true for technology. It's just now AI

0:39:25.160 --> 0:39:28.400
<v Speaker 4>is the thing that everybody wants to talk about. But

0:39:28.440 --> 0:39:30.560
<v Speaker 4>let's see if we can do it. Time will tell.

0:39:31.440 --> 0:39:34.120
<v Speaker 3>Did you get any inkling that the pace that this

0:39:34.239 --> 0:39:37.919
<v Speaker 3>AI year's phenomenon was gonna that things with the pace

0:39:37.920 --> 0:39:40.480
<v Speaker 3>of change was going to accelerate so much because you

0:39:40.560 --> 0:39:43.239
<v Speaker 3>had More's law, right, you had a model in the

0:39:43.280 --> 0:39:48.600
<v Speaker 3>technology world for this kind of exponential increase in so

0:39:48.640 --> 0:39:53.080
<v Speaker 3>were you were you thinking about that kind of accelerate

0:39:53.320 --> 0:39:55.440
<v Speaker 3>similar kind of acceleration in.

0:39:55.440 --> 0:40:00.319
<v Speaker 4>The I think anybody had said they expect did what

0:40:00.320 --> 0:40:05.800
<v Speaker 4>we're seeing today is probably exaggerating. I think it's way

0:40:05.840 --> 0:40:11.560
<v Speaker 4>faster than anybody expected. Yeah, but technologies, back to your

0:40:11.600 --> 0:40:15.520
<v Speaker 4>point at More's Law has always accelerated through the years,

0:40:15.520 --> 0:40:16.040
<v Speaker 4>So I.

0:40:16.040 --> 0:40:19.320
<v Speaker 5>Wouldn't say it's a shock, but it is surprising.

0:40:19.920 --> 0:40:25.440
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, You've had a kind of extraordinary privileged position to

0:40:25.680 --> 0:40:28.359
<v Speaker 3>watch and participate in this revolution, right, I mean, how

0:40:28.360 --> 0:40:33.960
<v Speaker 3>many other people have been in that have ridden this wave.

0:40:33.800 --> 0:40:34.160
<v Speaker 5>Like you have.

0:40:35.520 --> 0:40:38.680
<v Speaker 4>I do wonder is this really that much different or

0:40:38.719 --> 0:40:40.479
<v Speaker 4>does it feel different just because we're here?

0:40:41.520 --> 0:40:43.520
<v Speaker 5>I mean, I do think on one level. Yes.

0:40:44.400 --> 0:40:46.680
<v Speaker 4>So in the time I've been an IBM, internet happened,

0:40:48.239 --> 0:40:54.440
<v Speaker 4>Mobile happened, social network happened, blockchain happened.

0:40:55.000 --> 0:40:56.400
<v Speaker 5>AI. So a lot has happened.

0:40:56.719 --> 0:40:58.080
<v Speaker 4>But then you go back and say, well, but if

0:40:58.120 --> 0:41:03.759
<v Speaker 4>I'd been here between nineteen seventy and ninety five, there

0:41:03.760 --> 0:41:06.640
<v Speaker 4>were a lot of things that are pretty fundamental. Then too, say,

0:41:06.640 --> 0:41:09.840
<v Speaker 4>I wondered, almost do we do we always exaggerate the

0:41:09.880 --> 0:41:10.759
<v Speaker 4>timeframe that we're in.

0:41:13.160 --> 0:41:13.640
<v Speaker 5>I don't know.

0:41:14.080 --> 0:41:17.120
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, but it's a good idea though.

0:41:19.040 --> 0:41:22.040
<v Speaker 3>I think the ending with the phrase I don't know

0:41:22.800 --> 0:41:26.279
<v Speaker 3>it's a good idea though. That's the great way to

0:41:26.320 --> 0:41:32.560
<v Speaker 3>wrap this up. Thank you so much, Thank you, Malcolm.

0:41:32.760 --> 0:41:35.960
<v Speaker 3>In a field that is evolving as quickly as artificial intelligence,

0:41:36.320 --> 0:41:39.160
<v Speaker 3>it was inspiring to see how adaptable Rob has been

0:41:39.200 --> 0:41:43.000
<v Speaker 3>over his career. The takeaways from my conversation with Rob

0:41:43.280 --> 0:41:47.160
<v Speaker 3>had been echoing in my head ever since. He emphasized

0:41:47.280 --> 0:41:50.960
<v Speaker 3>how open source models allow AI technology to be developed

0:41:50.960 --> 0:41:56.399
<v Speaker 3>by many players. Openness also allows for transparency. Rob told

0:41:56.440 --> 0:42:01.360
<v Speaker 3>me about AI use cases like IBM's collaborate with Sevilla's

0:42:01.400 --> 0:42:05.080
<v Speaker 3>football club. That example really brought home for me how

0:42:05.160 --> 0:42:10.360
<v Speaker 3>AI technology will touch every industry. Despite the potential benefits

0:42:10.360 --> 0:42:15.320
<v Speaker 3>of AI, challenges exist in its widespread adoption. Rob discussed

0:42:15.520 --> 0:42:20.520
<v Speaker 3>how resistance to change, concerns about job security and organizational

0:42:20.600 --> 0:42:26.480
<v Speaker 3>inertia can slow down implementation of AI solutions. The paradox, though,

0:42:26.520 --> 0:42:29.040
<v Speaker 3>according to Rob, is that rather than being afraid of

0:42:29.080 --> 0:42:32.720
<v Speaker 3>a world with AI, people should actually be more afraid

0:42:32.719 --> 0:42:36.480
<v Speaker 3>of a world without it. AI, he believes, has the

0:42:36.520 --> 0:42:39.400
<v Speaker 3>potential to make the world a better place in a

0:42:39.440 --> 0:42:43.879
<v Speaker 3>way that no other technology can. Rob painted an optimistic

0:42:44.000 --> 0:42:47.520
<v Speaker 3>version of the future, one in which AI technology will

0:42:47.560 --> 0:42:51.839
<v Speaker 3>continue to improve at an exponential rate. This will free

0:42:51.920 --> 0:42:56.000
<v Speaker 3>up workers to dedicate their energy to more creative tasks.

0:42:56.600 --> 0:43:01.120
<v Speaker 3>I for one am on board Smart Talks with IBM

0:43:01.239 --> 0:43:05.360
<v Speaker 3>is produced by Matt Romano, Joey Fishground and Jacob Goldstein.

0:43:05.760 --> 0:43:09.560
<v Speaker 3>We're edited by Lydia gene Kott. Our engineers are Sarah

0:43:09.560 --> 0:43:14.720
<v Speaker 3>Bruguer and Ben Tolliday. Theme song by Gramscow. Special thanks

0:43:14.719 --> 0:43:17.239
<v Speaker 3>to the eight Bar and IBM teams, as well as

0:43:17.239 --> 0:43:20.799
<v Speaker 3>the Pushkin marketing team. Smart Talks with IBM is a

0:43:20.840 --> 0:43:25.600
<v Speaker 3>production of Pushkin Industries and Ruby Studio at iHeartMedia. To

0:43:25.640 --> 0:43:31.280
<v Speaker 3>find more Pushkin podcasts, listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

0:43:31.400 --> 0:43:36.200
<v Speaker 3>or wherever you listen to podcasts. I'm Malcolm Gladwell. This

0:43:36.280 --> 0:43:39.880
<v Speaker 3>is a paid advertisement from IBM. The conversations on this

0:43:40.000 --> 0:43:52.640
<v Speaker 3>podcast don't necessarily represent IBM's positions, strategies, or opinions.