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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day. If Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot com, the radio plus mobile app and on your radio.

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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow.

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Speaker 1: This updates brought to you by National Realty Returns on

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Speaker 1: cash and rented real estate. Find them at n r

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Speaker 1: i a dot net. Today we are watching earnings Visor,

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Speaker 1: CBS Health, and Haliburton, all reporting profit that beat. Analysts

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Speaker 1: estimates the dollar falling to its weakest level in almost

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Speaker 1: a year, stocks declining. We checked the markets every fifteen

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Speaker 1: minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg SNP EVENI futures

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Speaker 1: down fourteen points to now EVENY futures down one fourteen,

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Speaker 1: nazdac emuny futures down thirty one decks. In Germany's down

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Speaker 1: one point seven percent. Ten year treasury of seventeen thirty seconds,

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Speaker 1: the yield one point eight one percent yield on the

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Speaker 1: two year point seven five percent. NIMEX crud oil down

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Speaker 1: nine tenths percent, or forty one cents to forty thirties

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Speaker 1: seven of barrel comex school little change down eighty cents

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Speaker 1: to twelve ninety five an ounce. The Euro at a

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Speaker 1: dollar fix teen seventy nine, the end one oh five

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Speaker 1: point eight seven and the au Sea dollar points seven

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Speaker 1: five six seven. That's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and

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Speaker 1: Mike Cara Mosco, thank you very much. Has been quite

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Speaker 1: a morning, Tom, with all kinds of things going on

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Speaker 1: in the markets. We have the European Commission UM lowering

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Speaker 1: the forecast for growth and inflation in Europe, and then UH,

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Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank of Australia lowering interest rates, and of

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Speaker 1: course here in New York it is pouring rain, which

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Speaker 1: reminds us that commodities and the global economy are affected

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Speaker 1: by the weather as much as everything else. Jim Romer

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Speaker 1: is with this, our official surveillance commodities weather man from

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Speaker 1: Best Weather, and Jim, you've been noting to me for

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Speaker 1: the last week or so that we are ELNO is

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Speaker 1: sort of fading away, but the results are still with us.

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Speaker 1: But surely yeah, we talked. I guess it's been about

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Speaker 1: two months Mike, and UM we've seen UH commodity prices

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Speaker 1: sore about fifteen and some of the other non weather

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Speaker 1: related markets like crude oil and gold because of a

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Speaker 1: weaker dollar and the ideas that maybe we will not

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Speaker 1: be raising interest rates anytime soon before a weather perspective,

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Speaker 1: it's really Southeast Asia they get the prize of the

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Speaker 1: main effects of Almenio with droughts all across Vietnam and

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Speaker 1: also Thailand affecting sugar production. We've rises cigar over the

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Speaker 1: last UH four to six weeks and UH the some

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Speaker 1: of the rivers are the lowest levels in over a

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Speaker 1: hundred years. As Almenio weekends, we don't see that's a

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Speaker 1: deligion proving right away. So some of the commodities like

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Speaker 1: robusto coffee, UM sugar are really having the leaders in

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Speaker 1: the act sector as well as also soybeans over the

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Speaker 1: last two weeks because of flooding and Argentina. Yeah, we

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Speaker 1: pay a lot of attention to soybeans and corn here

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Speaker 1: in the United States, and prices exploded recently. They really have.

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Speaker 1: And UM, I think we've had a lot of funds

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Speaker 1: short the last two or three years. We're getting an

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Speaker 1: inflow of commodity money uh from the investors have been

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Speaker 1: in the sidelines for months, uh and part of that

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Speaker 1: because of a week or dollar. We were also the

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Speaker 1: stronger Brazilian reels heading to the UM Olympics coming up

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Speaker 1: this summer, I think they would be really could actually

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Speaker 1: strengthen and what that doesn't make products more expensive down

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Speaker 1: in South Americas exports to the United States. But some

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Speaker 1: of the main reasons have, of course been a flooding.

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Speaker 1: Argentina the third biggest producer of soybeans in the world.

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Speaker 1: They've lost about five million metric tons maybe about temperas

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Speaker 1: now the crop ls four to six weeks, which we

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Speaker 1: predicted the clients about six or seven weeks. Again, what

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Speaker 1: is improving there right now? But now now what is

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Speaker 1: depend of the marketIn be looking at the U S

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Speaker 1: weather and what happens this summer with Alma. That's what

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be looking after this. The conversation to me,

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Speaker 1: do a great extension is about normal commodity weather betting

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Speaker 1: and weather speculation. In that overlay on this what we

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Speaker 1: see in not all but some articles about climate control,

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Speaker 1: global warming and such. Are these, in any way structural

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Speaker 1: changes in commodity price dynamics or is its cyclicality due

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Speaker 1: to just normal weather patterns. That's a very good question.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I I continue to believe and a lot

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Speaker 1: of people don't, but I guess ninety scientists actually do

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Speaker 1: believe that climate change. Global warming has an impact on cycles,

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Speaker 1: and it has changed our ocean currents. It makes long

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Speaker 1: range forecasting more difficult. I have a product right now quickly.

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Speaker 1: I'm developing with an ELM from m I going back

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Speaker 1: fifty to sixty years, which are the icons and history

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Speaker 1: is really nothing in the planets are two and a

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Speaker 1: half billion years old, sixty years of data. Trying to

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Speaker 1: recreate long range weather forecasting. It's difficult when you have

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Speaker 1: things like climate change and ninety three degrees in Florida

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Speaker 1: right now, record breaking heat, So to go back and

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Speaker 1: look at the pattern to recreate animal it's it's more

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Speaker 1: difficult than it used to be. I just put out

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Speaker 1: like you mentioned corn, I just put out the corn shot.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio Plus. It's a very elegant chart. We've

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Speaker 1: broken out of a two year trend right up to

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Speaker 1: where my moving averages. It's an arbitrary assessment. Are you

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Speaker 1: able to call bull market like we are? You know

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Speaker 1: gold is a big debate as well, But are you

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Speaker 1: able to call bull bull market on something like corn

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Speaker 1: or do you need to see murder data to give

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Speaker 1: you that confidence? Let me let me explain it. For

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Speaker 1: a second in quotas rallied because we've had a weaker dollar.

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Speaker 1: There's worries about elmenyo dying. When elmenyo dies typically you

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Speaker 1: see drafts in the summertime maybe seventy percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: So sticklers are jumping on board, and you know we're

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Speaker 1: gonna have a hot, dry summer, lower corn yields, that's possible.

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Speaker 1: The bazilion crop has been hurt by dry weather recently,

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Speaker 1: so a lot of it has been weather related. But

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Speaker 1: right now, for the next few weeks, we're planting corn

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Speaker 1: at a at a record pace. A lot of people

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Speaker 1: now call along the market, so I actually see the

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Speaker 1: weather things. Someone bearish for corn right now over the

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Speaker 1: next few weeks has been go into planting season. Uh,

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Speaker 1: come Junior July, we have a hot, dry summer. There's

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Speaker 1: more than enough time to buy corn un draft. But

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Speaker 1: right now, But what is really I think there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of psychological speculation going on right now, some of

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Speaker 1: these commodities that that maybe is not warranted. The soft

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Speaker 1: come out of is a thought. Cocoa sugar, coffee, robuster

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Speaker 1: coffee has definitely severe weather play is going on in

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Speaker 1: Southeast Asia right now. That that's definitely bullish. Well, just

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Speaker 1: a minute left here, What is the forecast for this

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Speaker 1: summer as farmers start to plan and I'm still working

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Speaker 1: on it, and you know, and you book a little

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Speaker 1: for a second ago, how the kind of change maybe

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Speaker 1: change some of the cycles. You know. Um, I'm thinking

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Speaker 1: we're gonna have some hot to weather the summer. Typically

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Speaker 1: we have all the warmest winters on record. Natural gas

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Speaker 1: prices dropped below two dollars. As you know, we talked

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Speaker 1: about this back in November or December. That would happen.

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Speaker 1: And when you have warm, dry winters, about SEMy percent

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Speaker 1: of the time, at least one or two months is

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Speaker 1: hot during the summer in the Midwest and east. That

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Speaker 1: could put a fluord. Not right now but another month

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Speaker 1: or two. And natural gas prices with riggs coming down

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Speaker 1: that you know, we're just broken out for all the reasons.

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Speaker 1: Maybe natural guests is the next top thing that comes

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Speaker 1: up this summer, and we may have a cold intern

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Speaker 1: next year. With Almeno dying for the grain market, it's cut. Um.

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Speaker 1: I think we was possible have bolognomial yields, but I

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Speaker 1: want to see how made weather bears out first before

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Speaker 1: making a crediction for July and also August, the time

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Speaker 1: of the year for the grain market. Jim Romer, whether

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Speaker 1: this will come back with a lot of speculation and

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Speaker 1: what the weather is gonna do. I looked at the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg and just to uh, not to give an opinion

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Speaker 1: on corn, but the technical indicator a d X d

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Speaker 1: M I confirms Mr Rohmer's weight and see on corn

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Speaker 1: futures negative thirteen. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance is

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Speaker 1: brought to by Mercedes Ben's outstanding offers are in full

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Speaker 1: Bloomedge Mercedes Bens Tri State dealers take advantage of limited

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Speaker 1: time LISA and Finance programs on select models this spring season.

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Speaker 1: Visit m b USA dot com for details. Today broadcasting

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Speaker 1: live to New York, Bloomberg eleventh to Washington, d C,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, BLUEMBERG twelve hundreds to San Francisco, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: to the Country Series Exam General one ninety and around

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Speaker 1: the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus Happen Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning at seven thirty on

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Speaker 1: Wall Straight I Michael McKee along with Tom Keene. Along

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Speaker 1: with everything else going on today, Lots of earnings out there,

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Speaker 1: bad news from euro P out of the bank's ubst

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Speaker 1: decline in profit. Commerce Bank profit down in a fifty percent,

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Speaker 1: shares off eight point three percent right now, while actually

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Speaker 1: Commerce Bank now down nine percent, it is UBS shares

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Speaker 1: that are down by about eight and a half percent.

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Speaker 1: Haliburton first quarter loss two point four billion dollars profit

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Speaker 1: of seventh cents to share, higher than the four cent

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Speaker 1: average of analysts estimates. Of course, they called off their

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Speaker 1: merger with Banker Hughes on Sunday. Fiser, though beats sixty

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Speaker 1: seven cents a share cents was the average estimate, also

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Speaker 1: raising its full year adjusted earnings and sales forecast CBS beats,

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Speaker 1: helped by higher prescription claims dollar eight team compared with

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Speaker 1: the dollar sixteen forecast. This headline just crossing the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Professional Service Biogen reporting it's intend to spit off its

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Speaker 1: hemophilia business. Keep an eye on Biogen shares today. Now

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Speaker 1: let's check out with Michael Marr and get the latest

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Speaker 1: world of national headlines. Michael, well, thank you. Today it

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Speaker 1: could be a pivotal day for Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz.

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Speaker 1: Front runner Donald Trump is strongly favored in today's Indiana primary,

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Speaker 1: and a Trump win would make his path easier to

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Speaker 1: win the Republican nomination. For the Democrats, front runner Hillary

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Speaker 1: Clinton is just two eighteen delegates short of the number

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Speaker 1: she needs to clinch the nomination. Officials say an American

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Speaker 1: serviceman has been killed in her bill Iraq while fighting

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Speaker 1: the Islamic State Army. General Curtis scap Scoparanti takes comman

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Speaker 1: end of the US forces in Europe today. He replaces

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Speaker 1: General Philip Breedlove as commander of US European Command. Defense

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Speaker 1: Secretary Ash Carter, speaking during the change of command ceremony

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Speaker 1: and stood guard Germany praise breed Love's achievements as commander

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Speaker 1: the NATO Force. The General breed Love leaves behind is

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Speaker 1: stronger than the one he inherited. Global News twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours a day, powered by our twenty four hundred journalists

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Speaker 1: and more than a hundred fifty news bureaus from around

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Speaker 1: the world. Michael Barr, Thank you, Michael. Time now for

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg NBC Sports update. Here's John Stessher. Thanks Mike.

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Speaker 1: NBA could use A competitive playoff series between high level

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Speaker 1: teams Oklahoma City and San Antonio figured to provide it,

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Speaker 1: but the Spurs one game won by thirty two points,

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Speaker 1: whole lot closer last night in a while finish, the

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Speaker 1: reps admit a push off foul should have been called

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Speaker 1: and wasn't. I couldn't score thunder one seven Russell Westbrooks

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Speaker 1: day nine points. Kevin Duran had twenty eight. LaMarcus aldred

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Speaker 1: four and forty one for the Spurs, but the series

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Speaker 1: tied to one. Cleveland now five and on the postseason,

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Speaker 1: taking Game one from Atlanta one oh four nine. NHL

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh again top Washington three two for a two one

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Speaker 1: series lead. Islanders and Tampa Bay tonight in Brooklyn Game three,

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Speaker 1: another city field win for the match. This one decided

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Speaker 1: very early. Mets had three home runs and a four

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Speaker 1: nothing lead still in the first inning. Didn't score again,

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Speaker 1: didn't need to. They beat Atlanta four to one. His

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Speaker 1: bar Tolo Cologne Herald eight scoreless innings English Premier League

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Speaker 1: soccer when Tottenham failed to beat Chelsea. That meant Leicester

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Speaker 1: City clinched the title first time and it's one hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty two year history when the season began, the

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Speaker 1: odds on Leicester City winning the title five thousand to one.

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Speaker 1: With the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update, I'm John stash Award,

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Speaker 1: Thank you, John. Well. With everything that's going on out there,

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Speaker 1: investors are spooked to the A S and P futures

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Speaker 1: down by fifteen in Europe, the SUCK six hundred is

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Speaker 1: off by six points one point seven percent. The foot

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Speaker 1: Sea in London down seventy seven points right now. One

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Speaker 1: concerns after the p m I manufacturing index there fell

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Speaker 1: into contraction, territory, concerns about Brexit going forward. This is

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio, and this is Bloomberg Surveillance. I Michael McKee

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Speaker 1: along with Tom Keane. As I mentioned a down day

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Speaker 1: in futures, markets were also seeing down, down, down goes.

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Speaker 1: The dollar index ninety two now two point to eight five.

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Speaker 1: The euro rises to one one five seven nine. It

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Speaker 1: was over one sixteen earlier today, the end one oh

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Speaker 1: five eight one. These are not numbers those central banks

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Speaker 1: want to see. We'll talk about that later in the program,

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Speaker 1: but first we're gonna bring you the Bloomberg n j

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Speaker 1: I t STEM Report, brought to by New Jersey Institute

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Speaker 1: of Technology, investing more than a hundred and ten million

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Speaker 1: dollars a year in applied research to solve problems that

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Speaker 1: improved life. Learn more stories of innovation dot n J

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Speaker 1: I T dot E, DU, Here is move and Michael,

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Speaker 1: Good morning to you. Here's what's making news in science, technology, engineering,

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Speaker 1: and math. Fiat Chrysler and Google are teaming up to

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Speaker 1: create autonomous vehicles, according to people familiar with the matter,

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Speaker 1: with plans to develop several dozen self driving prototypes based

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Speaker 1: on the Carmakers PACIFICA minivan. Those people say the companies

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Speaker 1: would remain free to cooperate in drivalless technology with other partners.

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Speaker 1: We're hearing in agreement could be signed as early as today.

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Speaker 1: Attention mid level Wall Street workers, Your computer is coming

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Speaker 1: to get you. That's been the warning from several panelists

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Speaker 1: at the Milken Institute's Global Conference. They say the world

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Speaker 1: of finance is being transformed by emerging technologies. Ahead of

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Speaker 1: one company that provides data analytics to banks, says software engineers,

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Speaker 1: whole technology departments, and anyone who's moving numbers from one

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Speaker 1: spreadsheet to another is going to get decimated. And scientists

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Speaker 1: around the world are revved up with excitement as the

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Speaker 1: world's biggest atom smasher starts turning out data that making

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Speaker 1: firm cautious hints of an entirely new particle. Experts say

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Speaker 1: such a discovery would all but upend the most basic

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Speaker 1: understanding of physics. The European Center for Nuclear Research, or

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Speaker 1: c r N by its French acronym, has been beefing

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Speaker 1: up the machinery in a seventeen mile underground circuit along

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Speaker 1: the French Swiss border known as the Large Hadron Collider.

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Speaker 1: The project was temporarily delayed by a weasel, which invaded

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Speaker 1: a transformer that helps power the machine and set off

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Speaker 1: an electrical outage. That's this morning's bloomberg. N J I

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Speaker 1: t stem a weasel A weasel, all right, We'll we'll

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Speaker 1: have to get the door against weasels coming into the studio.

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Speaker 1: Jim Romer is when us. He's from Best Weather, he's

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Speaker 1: our surveillance commodities meteorologists, and Jim was talking about the

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Speaker 1: possibility of a m at this point hotter summer and

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Speaker 1: then a colder winter. And I wanted to go there, Jim,

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Speaker 1: because the there is talk out there in the weather

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Speaker 1: community of what they call a La Nina, the opposite

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Speaker 1: of El Nino, where the water temperatures off the coast

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Speaker 1: of Pru get colder. What is that likely? Well, first

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Speaker 1: of all, is it likely to happen? And what does

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Speaker 1: that likely mean for us weather going into the fall

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Speaker 1: and winter. Well, if I'm wrong, I'm gonna be called

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Speaker 1: the weasel or something much worse than that. I hope not. Uh. Typically,

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Speaker 1: this Almenio is being affected also by your warm emotions,

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Speaker 1: including climate change amount I certainly do to some extent.

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Speaker 1: The Almenia may decay more slowly, and then some people

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Speaker 1: are thinking, which means the onset of Lamnia may her

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Speaker 1: maybe this fall and winter, not this summer. And the

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Speaker 1: basic bottom line is the more quickly we see Almenia demise,

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Speaker 1: the hotter the summer will be. So um, there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be probably these one buckets gonna be hot this summer.

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Speaker 1: If Almenia week is much more quickly totally Menia, we

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Speaker 1: can have June July at August off hot and that's

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Speaker 1: where guests press explode. I don't think that's going to happen,

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Speaker 1: but we have to remember the Earth's in the warmert

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Speaker 1: and like a hundred twenty years this last six or

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Speaker 1: eight months, and that's also having some of an impact.

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Speaker 1: So the bottom line is we're gonna have some hot

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Speaker 1: water this summer. I think maybe some put options way

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Speaker 1: out in natural gas six nine months from now, with

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Speaker 1: potentially somewhat positive summer being hot and then Lainia coming

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Speaker 1: out in the cold winter. It's probably a very conservative

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Speaker 1: safe play right now. When when would we know whether

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Speaker 1: or not we're going to have this cold winter or

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Speaker 1: at least in Ninia coming that could happens, not just

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Speaker 1: uh where will we know? Well, you know, most of

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Speaker 1: the computer models are predicting this, and we also have

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Speaker 1: something we have very low sense productivity right now, and

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Speaker 1: then low solar activity increases what's caused what it's called

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Speaker 1: cosmic glidies are getting too scientific about it. Um this

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Speaker 1: would end up pooling the oceans quite a bit as

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Speaker 1: we get into the fall and winter, at least along

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Speaker 1: the equator. Uh So, I would think that we will

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Speaker 1: have a lunnia, probably because the most sense of productivity,

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Speaker 1: probably because of the computer models. Whether it happened in

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Speaker 1: in in August or October, I'm not quite sure, but

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Speaker 1: you know, the odds would probably favors someone cold the

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Speaker 1: weather again next year, and but s after the kind

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Speaker 1: of experience we had back in the seventies and eighties,

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Speaker 1: I think that we've had the climate climate warming, you know. So,

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Speaker 1: But what Jim Andy Wilder in Futures magazine begs the question,

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Speaker 1: can you make money trading weather patterns? And can you

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Speaker 1: make money trading in futures? Can you make money trading

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Speaker 1: el nino, el nania, el makio, whatever it is. I

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's so great, But can you make money

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Speaker 1: doing this? Absolutely? You know? And and uh I have

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Speaker 1: and hopefully my clients have. I mean, here we had

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Speaker 1: a major collapse in com money prices a lit the

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Speaker 1: last two years. A lot of headspunks about on a business.

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Speaker 1: Part of the reason was because people were on the

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Speaker 1: wrong side of the krudeo market and everything else. But

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Speaker 1: a little bit happened with sugar and coco splouting, you

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Speaker 1: know fifteen or the last few months. That was mainly

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Speaker 1: a weather plan. Southeast Asia buying into the fear buying

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Speaker 1: the panic was a smart play when everybody's selling, and

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Speaker 1: as I had the short position. And here the weather

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Speaker 1: turns and we have some of the worst drouts in history,

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Speaker 1: affecting sugar production and things like that. So yes, there

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Speaker 1: are some great place we're a betterst natural gas back

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Speaker 1: in October. November one of the warmest dissembers in history

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Speaker 1: based with natural gas back in November. Uh, you know

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Speaker 1: the market, so there are lots of plays in the

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Speaker 1: weather and absolutely opportunities to make money, no question. Jim

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Speaker 1: Rumor a C T A. That's an important designation, linking

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Speaker 1: meteorology into the trading of commodities. That is what if

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Speaker 1: you do if you're in that world. James Rumor is

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Speaker 1: with best best weather I think as well. Very always interesting,

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Speaker 1: controversial as well, no controversy about data. It's important this morning,

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Speaker 1: we'll do extra data checks through this morning. Futures negative sixteen,

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Speaker 1: Dow futures at negative one twenty three in deteriorating. This

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance qut to by Ancient Block

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Speaker 1: and Ancient named the best accounting firm in North America

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Speaker 1: for the sixth year in a row by hedgeweek dot com.