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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some.

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Speaker 2: Of today's best minds, and.

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Speaker 1: Judge Wan Marshan has told Trump's legal team that they

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Speaker 1: are quote losing all credibility.

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Speaker 2: We have such a great show for you today.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinions Jonathan Levin stops by to make sense of

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Speaker 1: what's going on with the American economy and insurance prices.

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Speaker 1: Then we'll talk to Volts' own David Roberts about the

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Speaker 1: Biden administration's progress on fighting climate change. But first you'll

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Speaker 1: hear from MSNBC columnist and contributor the One, the Only,

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Speaker 1: Charlie Sykes. Welcome back to Fast Politics, Charlie Sikes.

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Speaker 3: Hey, good to be back with you. Molly.

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Speaker 1: I am so glad to have you here because I

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Speaker 1: wanted to talk to you first about there's bipartisan legislating

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Speaker 1: happening on the Hill right now, and I was reading

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Speaker 1: Punchbowl just a minute ago out how Mitch McConnell and

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Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer are both just so thrilled with this foreign

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Speaker 1: aid package that they finally got through, Like we forget

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Speaker 1: that this is actually the goal of government.

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Speaker 4: It is a remarkable moment. No, I don't want to

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Speaker 4: downplay this. I mean, first of all, you know you

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Speaker 4: had that vanishingly rare glimpse of political courage. Speaker Mike Johnson,

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Speaker 4: the last person on Earth you'd expect to do it,

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Speaker 4: was willing to put his speakership on the line. And yeah,

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Speaker 4: you actually do have a Congress that seems to have

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Speaker 4: taken a break from dysfunction. It's sort of like you

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Speaker 4: look at it and go, this is the way it used

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Speaker 4: to be, right, It's kind of like the before times.

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Speaker 2: I was so struck by it, and just like the fundamentals.

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Speaker 1: That Schumer and McConnell really do agree that this money

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Speaker 1: spent now will save lives and money later for all

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Speaker 1: of these different countries.

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Speaker 4: And also I think the margins are so revealing the

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Speaker 4: fact that it was what was the vote on the

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Speaker 4: Ukraine package, It was like three hundred and twelve votes

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Speaker 4: in favor of it. I mean, this is overwhelming, This

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Speaker 4: is not this is not a narrow margin here. It

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Speaker 4: was one of those moments where Republicans behaved in a

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Speaker 4: way that Ronald Reagan might have actually recognized. But also

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Speaker 4: Tip O'Neil, the old days when when Democrats and Republicans

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Speaker 4: sat down and actually in the end did the right thing. Now,

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Speaker 4: as you know, though, I do think there is that,

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Speaker 4: you know, I have to take a deep breath because

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Speaker 4: we've kind of been here before, right, And I did

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Speaker 4: sort of compare this to a Fada morgana a mirage

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Speaker 4: that it really looks impressive. It looks like the flying

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Speaker 4: Dutchman up there. But keep in mind, this is still

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump's party. It's like this massive gravitational field out there,

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Speaker 4: and all of these folks are going to bow the

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Speaker 4: knee and they're going to kiss the ring and other

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Speaker 4: things later this year and support Donald Trump for the presidency.

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Speaker 4: And we know what that means for Ukraine, Russia, our

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Speaker 4: place in the world, and that hasn't changed. So this

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Speaker 4: is a great moment. But I kind of wonder whether

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Speaker 4: it's sort of parenthesis of sanity amid all of the

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Speaker 4: other everything else.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, as this is happening, right, the House is out,

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Speaker 1: Republicans are campaigning against each other in primaries in like

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Speaker 1: four different states, and then there's this enormous criminal trial

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Speaker 1: which is happening in New York of Donald Trump and

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Speaker 1: Stormy Daniels and the first witness today. This podcast drops tomorrow,

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Speaker 1: so we will have had I think maybe all.

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Speaker 2: Of David Pecker's testimony.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and it actually turned out to be pretty interesting,

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Speaker 4: pretty compelling. Now you and I probably both remember, I'm having,

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Speaker 4: you know, flashbacks to twenty sixteen when David Pecker and

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Speaker 4: National Enquirer were flooding the zone with smears against other Republicans.

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Speaker 4: And I just want to connect the dots here. So

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Speaker 4: you do have this maga on maga violence going on

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Speaker 4: where Republicans are attacking one another, they're posing one another,

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Speaker 4: they're calling each other scumbags on national television. But back

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Speaker 4: in in twenty sixteen Gimmember, when Donald Trump was smearing

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Speaker 4: Ted Cruz, when he was putting bogus stories out about

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Speaker 4: Marco Rubio and Ben Carson. And it's worth remembering, you know,

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Speaker 4: how vicious and dishonest those attacks were, and that Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump has never apologized for any of that, has never

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Speaker 4: because this is again, this is the world, you know,

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Speaker 4: and you know, he smears, he attacks, and yet what

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Speaker 4: is the result. Everybody caves in, Everybody comes around, everybody

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Speaker 4: pulls the floor, tugs on the forelock and says, you know, yes, sir,

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Speaker 4: with the.

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Speaker 2: David Pecker staff. You know, he was the editor of

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Speaker 2: the National Enquirer.

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Speaker 1: This is like the end of print magazines, right, National

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Speaker 1: a Choirer is this is like the last gasp of

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Speaker 1: print magazines.

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Speaker 2: It's the thing you read in the checkout line.

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Speaker 1: And they basically, and he basically admits during the testimony

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Speaker 1: that he wanted every story about Trump to go through him.

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Speaker 1: He wanted to run stories. I mean, he signed a

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Speaker 1: non prosecution agreement, so the prosecution knew that everything he

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Speaker 1: was going to say he had to sign this so

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Speaker 1: he didn't go to jail.

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Speaker 2: Right. But everything he said.

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Speaker 1: I was struck by was like absolutely, now you're supposed

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Speaker 1: to do at all, Like journalism is not at all

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Speaker 1: supposed to Like you know, I was reading in real

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Speaker 1: time and I was like kind of mouth agape and horror.

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Speaker 4: Well, it is the National Inquirer.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know how shagrin.

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Speaker 4: Should be about all of this, but the degree to

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Speaker 4: which they hoard themselves out for Donald Trump's campaign, and

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Speaker 4: I thought that was the interesting thing is that he

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Speaker 4: made it very very clear that this was to support

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Speaker 4: the campaign, which is really central to this entire case.

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Speaker 4: And I keep coming back, and you know, I.

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Speaker 3: Said this yesterday.

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Speaker 4: I just remember so distinctly how Trump's entire life and

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Speaker 4: campaign was on a knife's edge after the excess Hollywood

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Speaker 4: video came out. I mean, things could have gone either way.

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Speaker 4: I was texting back and forth with mine's previous the

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Speaker 4: chairman of the National Republican you know, the RNC, and

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Speaker 4: he was telling me Charlie, I'm in tears about all

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Speaker 4: of this. We now know that he told Donald Trump,

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Speaker 4: you know, that he should drop out of the race.

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Speaker 4: If more shoes would have dropped in those few days afterwards,

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Speaker 4: the history of the last decade would have been profoundly different.

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Speaker 4: Perhaps we will never actually know, but I think that

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Speaker 4: that's important to sort of keep the context. Why Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump was so anxious to cover this story up, to

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Speaker 4: make these payoffs, why it was so super confidential, and

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Speaker 4: why ultimately this case, even though it's the most I

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Speaker 4: suppose trivial of the cases, why it still matters in

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Speaker 4: this whole story of our weird, crazy and same times.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's such an interesting question.

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Speaker 1: I often think about this because I think about, like

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Speaker 1: Nicki Haley, there was so much anxiety on the Democratic

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Speaker 1: side that Nicki Haley.

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Speaker 2: Might be the nominee.

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Speaker 1: And you know, in my mind, I was like, you, guys,

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Speaker 1: Nicki Haley is the nominee. I sleep well at night,

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Speaker 1: you know, because I know that American democracy does not

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Speaker 1: and if she wins, correct, you know, And so I

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Speaker 1: mean do I love her?

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Speaker 3: No?

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Speaker 1: Personally as an opinion columnist, it's my opinion that I

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Speaker 1: don't agree with a lot of her ideas. But you know,

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Speaker 1: the dream is that the Republican Party will someday go

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Speaker 1: back to running people like Nikki Haley.

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Speaker 2: And they had this moment.

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Speaker 1: I mean, had Mitch McDonald voted to convict, I mean,

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Speaker 1: none of us would be here right now.

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Speaker 4: None of us would be here right now. I mean

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Speaker 4: there's so many you know, would it could have here?

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Speaker 4: Would it could as you know, as a as a

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Speaker 4: og never Trumper, I keep thinking of all of the

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Speaker 4: various soft ramps that were there and how it was

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Speaker 4: all so predictable. It was like, this is Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: You know what this is going to do? And I

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Speaker 4: think this whole, this whole saga, though, is just is

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Speaker 4: a reminder that Donald Trump is Donald Trump. He was

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Speaker 4: who we thought he was. What has been remarkable has

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Speaker 4: been the way he's transformed the party, how the party

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Speaker 4: has changed, not just its ideological position, not just its

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Speaker 4: position on you know, free trade and things like that,

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Speaker 4: but but the in the character of the party. I mean,

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Speaker 4: the fact that one Republican after another is coming out saying, yeah,

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Speaker 4: we don't care if he's a convicted felon. We talk

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Speaker 4: about being numbed and normalized too much, but you know,

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Speaker 4: up until five minutes ago, nobody would have supported a

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Speaker 4: literally convicted felon for the presidency. And now that's become

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Speaker 4: Republican orthodoxy. And that's, you know, part of this whole

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Speaker 4: process of watching the Republicans look at Donald Trump and

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Speaker 4: going okay, we'll accept that. Okay, we'll accept that. I

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Speaker 4: suppose we'll accept that too. And the price TAK keeps

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Speaker 4: going up and up and up, and they keep paying it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I know, it's not chocking.

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Speaker 1: The thing that I always found chocking was that people

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Speaker 1: kept thinking like, at some point Trump might do the

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Speaker 1: right thing. You know. I remember the first time someone

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Speaker 1: said to be like, Trump will get in the White House,

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Speaker 1: he'll see how small and it is, and then you'll leave.

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Speaker 2: And I'm like, no, we won't I'm like, this is

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Speaker 2: the best thing that ever happened.

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Speaker 3: M Okay.

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Speaker 4: So there is a strain of wish casting I think

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Speaker 4: among the observers that I try to push back on

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Speaker 4: because people always have this, well this will happen, and

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Speaker 4: then it'll be okay, well this will happen. I mean,

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Speaker 4: at this point, and you know, as we're getting to

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Speaker 4: the end of April twenty twenty four, we had to

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Speaker 4: realize there are no Donald Unicorns that are gonna come

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Speaker 4: and save us from this. Donald Trump is not going

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Speaker 4: to wake up and go you know what I would

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Speaker 4: rather you know, have you know, stan Mario Lago, I

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Speaker 4: don't want to be president anymore. I'm going to give

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Speaker 4: it up. But I will say this is not just

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Speaker 4: Democrats who believe this. There were a lot of Republicans,

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Speaker 4: you know, going back to twenty sixteen. I think the

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Speaker 4: Paul Ryan slash Mike Pence wing of the party honestly

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Speaker 4: believed that Donald Trump would be more interested in you know,

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Speaker 4: putting in the you know, the golden toilets in the

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Speaker 4: White House, and that he would leave policy to them,

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Speaker 4: that they would basically be running the country while Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump would be doing his bullshit thing they you know,

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Speaker 4: engage in some wish casting. And obviously I think even

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Speaker 4: people like Welln de Santis engaged in wish casting when

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Speaker 4: he assumed that, you know, Donald Trump is actually indicted

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Speaker 4: on a whole bunch of felonies, or if he's convicted

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Speaker 4: of a whole bunch of villonies, I mean, surely Republicans

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Speaker 4: will break away from him, right, I mean they're not

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Speaker 4: going to do that, right, And it's like, damn, man, no,

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Speaker 4: you misread that one too.

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Speaker 1: I shouldn't laugh because it's so horrendous, and like, I'm

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Speaker 1: not laughing. It's funny because it is American democracy. But

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Speaker 1: I do think that there were so many times when

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Speaker 1: we really did and that's the thing, even like I

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Speaker 1: think people who voted for him were wishcasting, you know,

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Speaker 1: they were saying, well, he used to be a Democrat,

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Speaker 1: he comes from New York, he's probably paid for, you know.

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Speaker 2: I mean, people didn't know what he was.

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Speaker 1: They just knew he was famous, so they could really

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Speaker 1: put their own desires and fantasies on the kind of

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Speaker 1: president he would be.

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Speaker 4: And they're still doing that. I mean, if you listen

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Speaker 4: to people like Christan who who you know, in the

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Speaker 4: back of his head, whatever's going on there is the Okay,

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Speaker 4: he's going to go in there and we will be

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Speaker 4: able to somehow manipulate him. We will be able to

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Speaker 4: contain him and control him. And I think that, you know,

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Speaker 4: the in the annals of wish casting, this may be

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Speaker 4: one of the most naive forms because you know, Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump has shown us over and over and over again

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Speaker 4: who he is and what he is prepared to do,

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Speaker 4: and that Donald Trump in the White House is going

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Speaker 4: to be very angry. He's not only going to be angry,

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Speaker 4: he's going to know how to do things in a

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Speaker 4: way that he did not know the first time around.

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Speaker 4: And I think people really need to think that one through.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that is I think a really good point too.

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Speaker 1: You know, if you go to true social right now,

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Speaker 1: like where he's gone is very dark, and it's a

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Speaker 1: lot of stuff about the judge, which you were, a

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Speaker 1: normal criminal defendant in a normal criminal case would never ever,

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Speaker 1: i mean, you know, tweet about the judge. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's just he is sort of untethered by the laws

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Speaker 1: of physics that ground the rest of us.

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Speaker 4: Well, that's right, and he's getting away with things that

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Speaker 4: no other criminal defendant would get away with. And I

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Speaker 4: do think that that's important to keep underlining that point,

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Speaker 4: especially when he talks about the two tier justice system.

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Speaker 4: But I also think that people need to understand that

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Speaker 4: there is a there is a method to this madness.

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Speaker 4: And I've always reluctant to say that about Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: But it's not just that he is trying to, you know, politically,

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Speaker 4: spin these cases in a way that's advantageous for him politically,

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Speaker 4: but it's also part of this longer term project that

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Speaker 4: he has to discredit the entire criminal justice system. I mean,

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Speaker 4: if you are a sociopath, if you are breaking the laws,

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Speaker 4: you basically need to destroy the entire moral framework that

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Speaker 4: might hold you accountable, the legal framework. So he does

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Speaker 4: want to discredit not just Judge Marshawn in New York,

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Speaker 4: he wants to discredit the entire system of justice that

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Speaker 4: at some point will say no, you're not above the law. Now,

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Speaker 4: if he succeeds in doing that, if he succeeds in

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Speaker 4: persuading tens of millions of Americans that you know, there's

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Speaker 4: no legitimacy to the courts, the juries, the prosecutions, the judges,

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Speaker 4: then even if he loses the presidency, the damage to

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Speaker 4: our constitutional order is going to be profound and long lasting.

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Speaker 1: And that I think really is such an important point

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Speaker 1: and it's something I think a lot about. And it's

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Speaker 1: what happened with the election right in twenty twenty. You know,

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Speaker 1: he said it was reg and then now he has

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Speaker 1: a good portion of Republicans following along with that, so

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Speaker 1: we have like, he'll have damage first, you know, the elections,

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Speaker 1: the election integrity, democratic values. Now he's going for law

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Speaker 1: and order in the courts. I mean, you know, and

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Speaker 1: remember me, we had the pandemic, right and well, the media, though,

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Speaker 1: I feel like was a longer term project, but the

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Speaker 1: pandemic was such an interesting one too, because Trump even

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Speaker 1: you know, he said you should get vaccines, and then

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Speaker 1: he realized his people didn't like it, so he went

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Speaker 1: along with them.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you start lining up all of these things that

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Speaker 4: he has managed to delegitimize, you know, and again you're

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Speaker 4: right about the media being a longer term process. But

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Speaker 4: he's created this alternative reality in which he can push

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Speaker 4: these lines. And then you know, it's hard to imagine

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Speaker 4: Trump being the successful unless he had these alternative reality

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Speaker 4: silos that would amplify his points and then cover other

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Speaker 4: things up his success and delegitimize or his attempt to

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Speaker 4: delegitimize elections science the courts. Again, this is not just

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Speaker 4: I'm trying to say, not normal, but is more than

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Speaker 4: the normal political give and take. And that's what makes

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Speaker 4: what's happening in Congress sort of nostalgic. It's like, this

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Speaker 4: is what politics used to be like at least this moment,

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Speaker 4: this mirage of give and take and debate and amendments

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Speaker 4: and then you have votes and things like that. Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump is functioning in a completely different moral political universe.

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Speaker 4: He is trying to tear down all of these institutions.

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Speaker 4: Now it's not because he has some great ideological agenda.

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Speaker 4: It's all in service of his incredibly damaged, narcissistic personality.

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Speaker 4: But the damage is still very, very real. And how

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Speaker 4: then the question is, ten twenty years from now, what

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Speaker 4: are the consequences of that going to be? I mean,

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Speaker 4: if Americans think the criminal justice system is bogus, if

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Speaker 4: they think Congress is bogus, if they think elections are bogus,

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Speaker 4: I think the courts are bogus, what's left? What goes

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Speaker 4: into that vacuum, and it's not going to be something pretty,

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Speaker 4: it's not going to be something that we want, right.

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Speaker 1: I think what's so dangerous about this whole thing is

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Speaker 1: he got here by accident. Right, He ran for president

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Speaker 1: again because he knew it was going to get indicted.

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Speaker 1: I mean that's what Will Hurd said, right. So, I

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Speaker 1: mean he did these things, like and the pandemic was

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Speaker 1: not you know, just happened. But the combination of all

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Speaker 1: three of them is this perfect storm of undermining basically

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Speaker 1: all we have.

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Speaker 4: Well, that's right, And this takes place at a time

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Speaker 4: when you know, the entire way that we get information

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Speaker 4: is changing. I mean, this is this is something I'm

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Speaker 4: thinking about a lot, Molley. Is the way in which

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Speaker 4: the rules have completely changed. I think that a lot

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Speaker 4: of the reasons we continue to be shocked and surprised

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Speaker 4: by things that happen is that we're continuing to apply

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Speaker 4: the rules of say, the nineteen nineties to this era

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Speaker 4: of the thunderdome. Is it newspaper editorials mattered and things

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Speaker 4: like that, that the facts and logic actually mattered. Think

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Speaker 4: about the pandemic though we had more than a million

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Speaker 4: Americans die, and it's like it's dropped into the memory hole.

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Speaker 4: This isn't happened twenty years ago, This isn't happened three

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Speaker 4: years ago. This we all remember it, and yet Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump has managed to do this weird mind trick, like

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Speaker 4: now it did not happen. You don't remember when I

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Speaker 4: was talking about injecting bleach into your body. This is

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Speaker 4: something different, and the degree to which he's successful is

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Speaker 4: amazing until we realize that something else has happened to

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Speaker 4: the American mind and the way that we process information.

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Speaker 4: And I don't know that that gets fixed after the

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Speaker 4: election either.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think that's totally right, and I think really important.

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Speaker 2: I want to read the book you write about this.

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Speaker 1: But one other thing which I think as you're talking

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Speaker 1: about this and made me think of it, is that

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Speaker 1: it is about Trump, but it's also about this weird

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Speaker 1: shift in American media and sort of connecting with people.

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Speaker 1: But my one question for you, and again tell me

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Speaker 1: this might be wish casting, is that maybe MAGA voters

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Speaker 1: like he killed he didn't kill.

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Speaker 2: That's not fair.

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Speaker 1: He spread disinformation, right, and misinformation. Let's give him credit,

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Speaker 1: misinformation that caused the death of a million people. So

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Speaker 1: there is I just wonder how much voters like you know,

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Speaker 1: that's a sort of unpollable statistic. But you know, if

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Speaker 1: your grandfather died of COVID, you know, and you never

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Speaker 1: because you didn't believe it was airborne, and you didn't

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Speaker 1: believe it was airborne because you listen to a conservative

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Speaker 1: media outlet. I wonder if ultimately that makes you a

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Speaker 1: lower propensity voter not.

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Speaker 4: To mention the number of supporters who were dead and

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Speaker 4: not able to know you would think so, But I

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Speaker 4: don't know. So this may seem a little bit off.

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Speaker 4: But and bear with me here, because yes, in a

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Speaker 4: rational universe that would happen, people would remember that, they

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Speaker 4: would be upset about it. He would pay a very

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Speaker 4: significant price for all of that, right, because if you've

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Speaker 4: lost a loved one, that's something that you can't spin away.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 4: There's no true social post or ad that's going to

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Speaker 4: make you forget about that or not care about that.

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Speaker 4: And yet you know, on Earth Date earlier this week,

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Speaker 4: I think you know, President Biden put out something about

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Speaker 4: climate change. Scott Walker, who I know knew at one

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Speaker 4: time pretty well, former Republican governor of Wisconsin, puts out

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Speaker 4: a tweet saying, yeah, these are the same experts that

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Speaker 4: told us to take vaccines during the pandemic, and they

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Speaker 4: said that you wouldn't get sick if you had if

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Speaker 4: you took the vaccine, which was bullshit piled on bullshit.

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Speaker 4: But also it's like, what is your go to thing

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Speaker 4: about the pandemic? It's to attack the effectiveness of vaccines.

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Speaker 4: That's really where your brain is at. So the way

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Speaker 4: in which they have turned this on its head is amazing,

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Speaker 4: And the degree to which Republicans have dumbed themselves down

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Speaker 4: on all of this, it's just now, maybe Scott Walker

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Speaker 4: in retrospect did not have a long way to go

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Speaker 4: to dumb himself down, but it was still like, Scott,

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Speaker 4: what the fuck are you talking about me? So I

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Speaker 4: don't know, Republicans have talked themselves into thinking that, yeah,

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Speaker 4: you know, the real lesson of the pandemic is you

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Speaker 4: scientists didn't know what you were talking about. Those vaccines

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Speaker 4: didn't really protect this, and wow, how is that going

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Speaker 4: to play out the next time we have a pandemic?

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Speaker 4: Just leaving aside the politics for a minute, unbelievable.

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Speaker 2: Charlie Sikes, thank you so much for joining us. I

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Speaker 2: went long because it's so much fun to talk to you.

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Speaker 4: It's always fun.

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Speaker 3: Mollie, thank you.

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Speaker 1: Spring us here, and I bet you are trying to

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Speaker 1: look fashionable, So why not pick up some fashionable all

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00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:29,919
Speaker 1: new Fast Politics merchandise. We just opened a news store

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00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:34,520
Speaker 1: with all new designs just for you. Get t shirts, hoodies, hats,

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00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:39,840
Speaker 1: and top bags. To grab some, head to fastpolitics dot com.

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Speaker 1: Jonathan Levin is a columnist focused on US markets at

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Speaker 1: Economics for Bloomberg Opinion.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to Fast Politics.

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Speaker 5: John, Thank you for having me.

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Speaker 1: Mollie, very excited to have you so explain it is,

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Speaker 1: what the hell.

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Speaker 2: Is going on here?

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Speaker 1: Because the economy is waring bad, but it's also has

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Speaker 1: some problems.

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Speaker 6: Right, Yeah, Well, you know there's this thing in economics,

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Speaker 6: like if you take an economics one O one class

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Speaker 6: in undergrad there's this idea that you want the economy

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Speaker 6: to be good, but not too good because if it's

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Speaker 6: too good, then you have inflation. Right, So that's where

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Speaker 6: some of the critics of this economy are coming from.

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Speaker 6: And so basically people are obsessed about inflation again. Inflation

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Speaker 6: shot up in twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two. It's

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Speaker 6: one of these things that takes a long time to

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Speaker 6: get the genie back in the bottle once it's out.

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Speaker 5: And twenty twenty three was kind of great.

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Speaker 6: It was like what they like to call the Goldilocks

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Speaker 6: period on Wall Street. We had sort of great growth,

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Speaker 6: unemployment was low, and inflation was coming down anyway, defying

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Speaker 6: all of the doomsayers. We had an absolutely awesome run

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Speaker 6: at the end of twenty twenty three, like six or

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Speaker 6: seven months of fan pastic inflation reports.

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Speaker 1: Inflation going down, but economy growing, jobs numbers, really solid,

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Speaker 1: just everything you want.

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Speaker 5: One percent, one hundred percent.

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Speaker 6: And then here we are in the beginning of twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty four and we get a series of three inflation

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Speaker 6: reports that economists on Wall Street don't love, and the

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Speaker 6: Fed doesn't exactly love either, and so this narrative has

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Speaker 6: come back. That's like, see, we told you the economy

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Speaker 6: is too good. We're not doing the responsible thing to

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Speaker 6: put the genie back in the bottle. And my sort

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Speaker 6: of message is like, hold your horses, We absolutely don't

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Speaker 6: know that inflation in March came in at three point

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Speaker 6: five percent year on year. What the quote unquote experts

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Speaker 6: and the folks at the Fed one is something on

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Speaker 6: the order of two percent, so we're not super far.

436
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 6: We come in at three point five percent. This report

437
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 6: in March that caused everybody to absolutely freak out.

438
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 5: What constitutes a.

439
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:08,919
Speaker 6: Really bad report in the world of like finance journalism.

440
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,960
Speaker 6: We missed the mark by one tenth of a percentage point.

441
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 5: That's really what it boils down.

442
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 6: To, and that has created, you know, this snowball effect,

443
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:26,400
Speaker 6: the deleterious economy is too hot narrative is back Wall

444
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:31,159
Speaker 6: Street has gotten a little bit rocky recently. Everybody's saying,

445
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 6: you know, interest rates are going to stay high forever again, and.

446
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 5: I totally think it's an oval reaction, is the bottom.

447
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:43,240
Speaker 1: Line, right, Because what happened with this little bit of hotness,

448
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 1: this inflationary hotness, which was pretty minor, as you're saying,

449
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,159
Speaker 1: it was a sign that the Fed wasn't going to

450
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 1: cut interest rates, And all anyone wants is for the

451
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,879
Speaker 1: Fed to cut interest rates because it will then justice

452
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 1: the economy more.

453
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, I mean, and to be.

454
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:02,879
Speaker 6: Sure, there are certain parts of the economy that have

455
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 6: really been suffering right right. Home sales exactly, potential new

456
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,639
Speaker 6: home home buyers who have been on the sidelines for

457
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 6: a long time. We all know that there is this

458
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,360
Speaker 6: massive cohort of millennials that are trying to get their

459
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 6: foot in the door, and they absolutely can because the

460
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 6: numbers don't make any sense. Mortgage rates in many cases

461
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 6: are over seven percent, and with home prices high, they

462
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,480
Speaker 6: just can't make the numbers work. So that's extremely frustrating

463
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:29,639
Speaker 6: for a lot of Americans, and some folks are saying, like,

464
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 6: let's get on with it.

465
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 5: And frankly, you know, the Fed's position.

466
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 6: Which I don't think is an entirely unreasonable one, is like, look,

467
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:42,959
Speaker 6: we're not among the doomers. This is I'm paraphrasing Jerome

468
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 6: pal here.

469
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going to say the doomers, I feel like,

470
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:49,120
Speaker 1: is not a Jerome pal Yes, paraphrasing Loose.

471
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 3: I like it.

472
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 2: Yes, continue J.

473
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,680
Speaker 6: Powell is definitely not among the doomers. But he has

474
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 6: said we're sort of a conservative technocratic institution. We want

475
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:03,639
Speaker 6: to see the evidence in the numbers before we start

476
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,439
Speaker 6: cutting rates. And so what I think that translates into

477
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 6: is like, give me another three good inflation reports and

478
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 6: you'll start to see your cuts.

479
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 3: Right.

480
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 6: So, best case scenario, that means we're going nowhere fast

481
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 6: before like July. There's no meeting in August, so it's

482
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 6: either July or you're looking at late September, right before

483
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 6: the election.

484
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 1: Which will make Trump furious because it will juice the economy.

485
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,360
Speaker 1: And then he'll say, even though he put Jerome Powell

486
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 1: in the job.

487
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 6: He absolutely did, he absolutely did. I mean, I think

488
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 6: Jerome poll is a good guy first off.

489
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 2: And he's done a great job. I mean, relatively speaking.

490
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 6: He's done a great job. I think he's a straight shooter.

491
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 6: He's extremely transparent with the American people. If you were

492
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 6: motivated to get on the Trump conspiracy theory, you will say, well,

493
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:59,160
Speaker 6: look how bad Trump was to Jerome Pwll during his presidency.

494
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 6: Jerome power al must want revenge. And that is certainly

495
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 6: true in the sense that Trump was very, very bad

496
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 6: to Jerome Palell. But I think that Jerome Palll is

497
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:11,199
Speaker 6: such a good guy that he still just wants to

498
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 6: do the right thing.

499
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, who even knows what lurks in his heart.

500
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:17,880
Speaker 1: But the point is if he does raise I mean,

501
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:19,640
Speaker 1: I think the central tension that we need to talk

502
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 1: about is that if he cuts rates too fast, he's

503
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,400
Speaker 1: worried that inflation will boomerang back. Right.

504
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 5: That's the general idea here.

505
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 6: But the key point that I also sort of want

506
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 6: to drive home is when you talk to the inflation

507
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,440
Speaker 6: eistess or when you listen to somebody like Larry Summers

508
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 6: talk about this, the reason that they think we might

509
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 6: have a durable inflation problem is because they're trying to

510
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 6: make this link between excess demand and inflation. And I

511
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 6: have not seen evidence in the numbers like over the

512
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 6: last nine months that are telling me that this really

513
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 6: is primarily a demand problem. It's still these funky supply

514
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 6: shan problems that are working themselves out right. So in

515
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 6: the beginning, for instance, it was like the used cars

516
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 6: and the car parts that started causing everything, and people say, okay,

517
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 6: well that was an idiosyncratic thing and it's been worked out,

518
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:19,399
Speaker 6: So why isn't the inflation better right now? So the

519
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 6: number one reason why inflation was too hot versus expectations

520
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 6: in March was because of auto insurance. That's still the

521
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 6: lagged effect of the weird stuff that happened in the pandemic. Right,

522
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 6: auto prices shot up, and now auto insurers who are

523
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 6: ensuring a price you're underlying good. They want to jack

524
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,400
Speaker 6: up your rates. You know, it stinks for all of us,

525
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 6: but that's the way it works. And that process has

526
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 6: a lot of latency because the auto insurers have to

527
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 6: go to the state regulators and they have to say, please,

528
00:26:55,600 --> 00:27:00,160
Speaker 6: may we raise auto insurance rates, and initially some states

529
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 6: like California and New Jersey say no, and so like,

530
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:07,240
Speaker 6: even though the underlying inflation really happened in twenty twenty

531
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,200
Speaker 6: one and twenty twenty two, we're still feeling the effects

532
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 6: and seeing them in the consumer price index reports. But

533
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 6: that to me, like, that's an issue with regulatory latency.

534
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 6: That's not a problem with supply and demand. That is

535
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 6: telling me like, oh my god, we can't cut interest

536
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 6: rates later in the year.

537
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 2: And now I want to talk to you about insurance. Okay,

538
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 2: let's do it. You got me excited about insurance.

539
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 1: You know, I'm not not allowed, but I don't spend

540
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 1: that much time talking about the economy, and I'm so

541
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 1: interested in it, and then when I get someone in.

542
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 2: Here to talk about it, I'm so excited.

543
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:48,119
Speaker 1: But you happen to also live in Miami and Florida

544
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 1: is having an insurance inflationary shit show.

545
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 2: So explain to us.

546
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:57,360
Speaker 1: And I feel like, if we're going to talk about

547
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:01,360
Speaker 1: inflation and we're going to talk about out the causes

548
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 1: of it, insurance is a big one, and it dovetails

549
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:09,439
Speaker 1: with climate change and also my incredible dislike of DeSantis,

550
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: so it's a sweet spot for me, So talk to us, Okay.

551
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 5: Yeah.

552
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:16,679
Speaker 6: So there are a number of dynamics going on across

553
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:21,159
Speaker 6: the insurance landscape, and the very first issue is the

554
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:25,920
Speaker 6: most obvious one. The underlying price of stuff went up, right, So,

555
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 6: like you buy an insurance policy, you're basically buying a

556
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 6: promise to fix your stuff if it gets broken. And

557
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 6: the cost of stuff and the cost of fixing.

558
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 5: Have all gone up over the past two years.

559
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 6: That's like the most near term and sort of principal

560
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 6: reason why stuff has gone up in many homeowners' markets.

561
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:53,959
Speaker 6: That's compounded, of course by the fact that we have

562
00:28:54,080 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 6: climate change, which introduces long term uncertainty. It's bringing more

563
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 6: storms through places like South Florida. That is further compounded

564
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:09,480
Speaker 6: by the fact that we have an out of control

565
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 6: litigation scene here in South Florida.

566
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 5: Like you drive up and down ninety.

567
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 6: Five and all you see is are these billboards for

568
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 6: the plaintiff's attorneys saying like, we can get you three

569
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 6: million dollars, and it turns out that that can be

570
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 6: kind of problematic for a healthy and predictable insurance market

571
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 6: as well. Obviously, the biggest long term issue is climate change.

572
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 6: It's challenging because the insurance landscape is very kind of

573
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 6: like old school and old economy, and they need to

574
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 6: do a lot to reform their sort of models and

575
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 6: understand the new risks that we're facing so that they

576
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:55,479
Speaker 6: can effectively price that risk. Otherwise you end up with

577
00:29:55,720 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 6: these showdowns in places like Florida where insurance companies say

578
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 6: we want to jack up insurance prices a lot, and

579
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 6: then the regulators say, well, no, you can't jack up

580
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 6: the prices that much, and then the insurance companies say, aha,

581
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 6: we will just leave Florida then, and that becomes an

582
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 6: even bigger problem.

583
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 3: Right.

584
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 6: So it takes some maturity and some understanding of basic economics,

585
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 6: both on the side of the regulators and on the

586
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 6: side of the insurance companies. But the bottom line is,

587
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 6: if you want to live in a place like coastal Florida,

588
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 6: you're going to have to pay for the risk that's

589
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 6: not going away.

590
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 1: Part of what's happened is there is a certain kind

591
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 1: of regulatory problem in Florida.

592
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 2: Right.

593
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 1: It's almost like there's really only sort of one insurer.

594
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 1: The capitalism hasn't had the regulations that would make it, right.

595
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 1: I mean, people just have left, and then you have

596
00:30:56,720 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 1: this sort of the FEMA insurance, right, I mean, can

597
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:02,840
Speaker 1: you explain to us sort of how it works. The

598
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 1: pricing isn't competitive anymore because there's only like one insurer

599
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 1: in the state.

600
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 2: Right.

601
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 6: There are still some private insurers, like the big guy

602
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 6: is the big national players. A lot of them haven't

603
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 6: been here, and a lot of them haven't been here

604
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 6: for a long long time. There was a big exodus

605
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 6: of insurers after Hurricane Andrew way back in the nineties,

606
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 6: and some of them just never came back. And because

607
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 6: Florida is this sort of weird economic thing that depends

608
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 6: so much on the real estate industry, they created effectively,

609
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 6: they call it an insurer of last resort, but sadly

610
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 6: it's become an insurer first resort for many many homeowners here.

611
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 6: You know, they operate independently, but they're implicitly backed by

612
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 6: the state of Florida and it's exactly as you say, Molly.

613
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 6: You know, they're in there basically offering insurance for lower

614
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 6: than what the true market price of that risk should

615
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 6: cost in some cases, and they need to get away

616
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 6: from that. They need to wean themselves off of that,

617
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 6: because that is not a liability that is sustainable for

618
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 6: the state government of Florida, right. You know, there's there's

619
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 6: some concern, frankly, on a federal level that if things

620
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 6: were to get terrible enough that Florida couldn't bear to

621
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 6: deal with it, that it would ultimately become a federal liability.

622
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 6: That's a problem too. But the bottom line is, like

623
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 6: we're living in this age of climate change and we

624
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 6: need to start to tell people if you want to

625
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 6: live like on a Barrier Island community next to the beach,

626
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 6: I one hundred percent, you know, respect everybody is lifestyle choices.

627
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 6: I love living in South Florida. I do not live

628
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 6: on the beach by the way. I try and seek

629
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 6: out the high ground. But if people want to make

630
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 6: those lifestyle choices, they're welcome to do it, but they

631
00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 6: need to assume the true cost of that risk. Government

632
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 6: should not be subsidizing, you know, people's five million dollar

633
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 6: lifestyles or whatever.

634
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is kind of incredible that government is subsidizing

635
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 1: wealthy people's speech ases. And it does speak to the

636
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 1: it does speak to the craziness of all of this, right, yeah.

637
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 5: One hundred percent.

638
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 6: I mean, you know, look, I'm a Bloomberg guy. I've

639
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 6: been at Bloomberg News forever, so like I tend to

640
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 6: buy into this argument that.

641
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 1: Market I'm not saying that you should be a socialist here,

642
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 1: but this does seem like not a place the federal

643
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 1: government needs to be involved.

644
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 5: No, one hundred percent.

645
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 6: I mean basically what I was getting at was market forces.

646
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 6: I think eventually are going to work this out. But

647
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 6: it can happen in sort of like an orderly fashion,

648
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 6: or it can happen the hard way, right, But one

649
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 6: way or another, market forces are going to come in

650
00:33:58,760 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 6: and set this right.

651
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that is such an important point. Let

652
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 1: me just ask you right now, what are you watching

653
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 1: for and sort if you are in the Biden administration,

654
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 1: what do you hope happens now?

655
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 6: Inflation really is the key thing, right, Maybe it's too

656
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 6: much to ask for, but if you do get and

657
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 6: I think it's totally possible given the idiosyncratic nature of

658
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 6: some of the stuff that's going on under the hood

659
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 6: of these inflation reports. If you get three or four

660
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 6: better inflation reports, I think it's totally possible that the

661
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:37,439
Speaker 6: FED is looking to cut in September. And the way

662
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 6: markets work, you know, if the FED is starting to

663
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 6: plan for a September cut, then they're going to start

664
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 6: signaling that much earlier, and bond yields are going to

665
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:50,240
Speaker 6: start coming down, and mortgage rates are going to start

666
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 6: coming down, and that is going to make Americans.

667
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:54,760
Speaker 5: Feel a lot better.

668
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 6: Another thing that I think could potentially make Americans feel

669
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 6: a lot better is just an improvement in the news

670
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 6: cycle on inflation. Right, So, like you sort of get

671
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:10,800
Speaker 6: stuck in this inflation news doom cycle. The cover story

672
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:15,840
Speaker 6: doesn't really care that much about what the underlying forces

673
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 6: are behind the number. The headline says inflation came in

674
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 6: hotter than expected, and that ultimately drives inflation expectations. It

675
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 6: can become a self fulfilling prophecy, and that's just not

676
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 6: a place that the Biden administration wants to be heading

677
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 6: into November.

678
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:37,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, And it is really I think quite a good

679
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 1: point that it's something we haven't dealt with in such

680
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 1: a long time.

681
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 2: We're just not used to it.

682
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 6: Yeah, forty years forty year is basically living without serious inflation.

683
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 6: So it has been a shock to the system. It's

684
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 6: been unsettling. It has absolutely affected real wage growth in

685
00:35:56,120 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 6: terms of people's actual purchasing power. That wages have gone up,

686
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 6: but after adjusting for inflation, they have not gone up

687
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:05,800
Speaker 6: very much.

688
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 5: That's frustrating.

689
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:07,879
Speaker 3: I get it.

690
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:11,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you so much, thank you, thank you.

691
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,760
Speaker 5: Thank you so much for having me on, Molly.

692
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 1: David Roberts is the editor of the newsletter of Volts

693
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:22,800
Speaker 1: Welcome Back, Too Fast Politics, Doctor Volts.

694
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 2: I know your real name is David Roberts, but I

695
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:26,720
Speaker 2: like doctor Voltz.

696
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 3: Hi there, y'all.

697
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 2: We're so happy to have you. And Monday was Earth Day?

698
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:31,960
Speaker 3: Oh was it?

699
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 2: I think it was Jesse was Monday?

700
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 3: We need a fact check here, I'm kidding. I have

701
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,840
Speaker 3: an inbox and I'm an environmental reporter. It's been a

702
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:40,359
Speaker 3: hell week.

703
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 2: I mean, is Earth Day your election day?

704
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 5: No?

705
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 3: No, it's just it's more like, you know how everybody

706
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 3: else on the internet feels about April Fools. They're just like,

707
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:57,320
Speaker 3: oh god, here it comes like Domy pitches bad jokes.

708
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 3: We can we can get through this. That's how we

709
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 3: all feel about Earth Day. It's just like the brands.

710
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,480
Speaker 3: They come out of the woodwork and say dumb things.

711
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 1: Right, the brands have terrible ideas on how to capitalize

712
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 1: on climate change, but one of the good things. And again,

713
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 1: I feel like people find this annoying about me, but

714
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 1: I actually think that this administration has done incredible things

715
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 1: on climate and maybe not. I mean, they're still not

716
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 1: going to hit what they're supposed to, but they have

717
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 1: a lot of Earth Day initiatives, and the Inflation Reduction

718
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:35,360
Speaker 1: Act has been I think great.

719
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 2: Am I wrong?

720
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 3: It is simply a fact that this administration has done

721
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 3: extraordinary things on climate change. How you feel about that

722
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 3: relative to what's needed is always up to you. But

723
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 3: it is absolutely true that they have done extraordinary things.

724
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 3: And it is also absolutely true that the vast bulk

725
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:56,320
Speaker 3: of Americans do not seem aware of that fact.

726
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 2: So talk us through some of them.

727
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 3: IRA's the big one, And the problem is it's like

728
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 3: discussing IRA as one thing is a little bit deceptive, since, yeah,

729
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 3: it was a basket of a bunch of stuff which

730
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 3: has been rolled out piece by piece by piece, you know.

731
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 3: So it's just a couple of weeks ago. They spent

732
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 3: seven billion dollars on industrial decarbonization. That is the biggest thing.

733
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:20,879
Speaker 3: Like I had some guests on my podcast to talk

734
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 3: about it, and the very first thing they said was,

735
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 3: this is the biggest thing that has ever happened in

736
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:28,719
Speaker 3: industrial decarbonization, which is, these are the parts of the

737
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,800
Speaker 3: economy that were that not long ago everybody was calling

738
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 3: difficult to decarbonize, Like this is the dilemma. Even if

739
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 3: we decarbonize electricity and transportation, we still have you know,

740
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 3: steel and concrete. These are the problem areas. And here's

741
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 3: along comes. The administration has been seven billion dollars on

742
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 3: like first of a kind project's demonstration projects, R and D.

743
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,760
Speaker 3: All this stuff is in and of itself a huge development,

744
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 3: and it just sort of whisked by last week. And

745
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 3: I won't even notice.

746
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 1: For those of us who are not environmental reporters, what

747
00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 1: does decarbonization mean and what is that life like?

748
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 3: Sure? So right now, I mean just thinking about industry

749
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,360
Speaker 3: right now, the way we make stuff generally and factories,

750
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 3: and this is mostly about steel and concrete. Those are

751
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:12,800
Speaker 3: the two big ones, but also just every factory, potato

752
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 3: chip factory, whatever, they all almost all use combustion of

753
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 3: fossil fuels to get the heat they need. Almost all

754
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:23,280
Speaker 3: industrial processes do that, and we can't do that anymore.

755
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 3: We can't burn fossil fuels anymore. So we've got to

756
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 3: figure out how to make all those things without fossil fuels.

757
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:30,840
Speaker 3: And this is something that's kind of been hasn't gotten

758
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 3: as much attention as some of the other high profile

759
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 3: items like electricity, clean electricity. You know, everybody knows about

760
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 3: clean cars, evs, everybody's up on that, but industry is

761
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 3: just not something a lot of people think about. So

762
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 3: it's been a little bit neglected. And the administration has

763
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 3: smart people in it and they realized this and they

764
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 3: said about doing something about it. So now we have

765
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:57,359
Speaker 3: this huge rocket boost for industrial decarbonization in the US,

766
00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:00,319
Speaker 3: which is going to involve new factories open being the

767
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 3: first new aluminum smelter in the US in decades.

768
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 1: I need you to explain what smelting aluminium is for

769
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 1: the people on this podcast who are not my dad,

770
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 1: who actually does know about smelting aluminum.

771
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:14,960
Speaker 3: All you need to know about smelting aluminum is that

772
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:17,839
Speaker 3: it requires extremely high temperatures.

773
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 2: What are you smelting it for?

774
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 3: It gets using all sorts of things. You have to

775
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:23,839
Speaker 3: make a purified form of it. I mean, you're a.

776
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 1: Little defensive when we're talking about the aluminum smelting.

777
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 3: But again I continue, yes, yes, I love aluminum smelting.

778
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 3: I mean aluminum too. Aluminum is very difficult to decarbonate

779
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 3: because you know, the dilemma has always been how do

780
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 3: you get these high heats out of renewable energy? And

781
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 3: this is a problem that is being solved by engineers

782
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 3: as we speak. And then this week or was it

783
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 3: last week, they're all running together. It was twenty billion

784
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 3: out the door in the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund. So

785
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 3: that's a that's a fund created by the ERA that

786
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:58,840
Speaker 3: the EPA is sending out to disadvantaged communities directly funding

787
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 3: clean energy and decarbonization projects in the communities that need

788
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 3: it most. That's twenty billion dollars, a very big deal.

789
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 3: And then yesterday seven billion dollars went out the door

790
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 3: as what's called the Solar for All Program, also created

791
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:20,160
Speaker 3: by IRA. That's seven billion dollars specifically for disadvantaged communities,

792
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 3: specifically to create rooftop solar and community solar in the

793
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 3: communities where energy costs are the biggest burden, and that

794
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 3: also is a big deal. Like if any one of

795
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 3: these things had been passed individually, they would be seen

796
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:38,720
Speaker 3: as a big deal. And instead there's like two dozen

797
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 3: of them shoved under the rubric of the Inflation Reduction Act,

798
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 3: which no one understands that name, no one understands what

799
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 3: it is. So so I understand why maybe people don't get

800
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 3: the scale of what's happening here. And then on Thursday,

801
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 3: the EPA is announcing new rules pollution rules for power plants,

802
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 3: which are also going to be a very big deal.

803
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 3: So there's just like big deals on climate policy happening

804
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 3: right and left, and they're not getting the press they deserve.

805
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 3: But I do feel like democrats at least should know

806
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 3: about them. I do feel like at least climate activists

807
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 3: ought to know about them. I feel like and even

808
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 3: they don't seem to get it. So it's a little

809
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 3: bit maddening. But yes, there's lots happening.

810
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:26,720
Speaker 2: I'm laughing to keep from crying.

811
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 1: I'm not laughing because I don't think this is a

812
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 1: big deal, Because I do think it's a big deal. Now,

813
00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 1: one of the things I was hoping we could do

814
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 1: a few minutes talking about was the electric car chargers. Right.

815
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:44,320
Speaker 2: Part of the problem is you buy an electric car.

816
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 1: And you might not be able to charge it anywhere, right,

817
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 1: I mean it's not like gas stations.

818
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 2: So can you talk about that.

819
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:54,920
Speaker 3: Well, that's one of the problems that's currently being solved

820
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 3: being work talking. I mean, there's a lot of money

821
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 3: being plowed into chargers. I think the last report I

822
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 3: saw there's now one public charger for every fifteen gas stations,

823
00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:06,759
Speaker 3: which is one way of marketing progress. Like, as a

824
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:10,240
Speaker 3: matter of fact, on my pod next week, I'm talking

825
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:13,279
Speaker 3: to a guy who's leading a team in Department of

826
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 3: Energy who's doing nothing but thinking about how can people

827
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 3: who don't have home chargers write a garage or something

828
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 3: to charge in. How can people who live in apartments

829
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 3: or you know, multi family residences or whatever, how can

830
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:29,879
Speaker 3: they charge? Like there's literally a team in Dewey that's

831
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 3: doing nothing but beavering in on that. So there's going

832
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:35,880
Speaker 3: to be community chargers, there's going to be curbside charging.

833
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:39,239
Speaker 3: There's all sorts of solutions for this, and it's just

834
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 3: This is one of those things. Is just a matter

835
00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 3: of time. We're just going to have to build a

836
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 3: bunch of them, and in the next few years a

837
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:47,919
Speaker 3: lot of people are going to complain about the lack

838
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 3: of them, and that problem is going to solve itself.

839
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 3: This is just not something I feel like people need

840
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 3: to worry about.

841
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 2: I mean, all I like to do is worry. But yes,

842
00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 2: I know there.

843
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:00,560
Speaker 3: Are so many legitimate things to worry. I think you

844
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:02,520
Speaker 3: can strike this one from your list. Like it's going

845
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:04,359
Speaker 3: to take a while to build as many as we need,

846
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 3: but we'll get there.

847
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 2: I Mean.

848
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 1: The thing that sort of saves us, not to get

849
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 1: put too fine a point on it here, is that

850
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 1: the solar just is still so cheap, and that everything's

851
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 1: becoming so cheap that it's.

852
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 2: All going to sort of save us from dying in

853
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 2: a heat inferno. Or am I overly optimistic here?

854
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 3: Things are getting cheap, Yes, solars getting cheaper and cheaper,

855
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:29,840
Speaker 3: cheaper than anybody thought it would get, and it's still

856
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:32,640
Speaker 3: got tons of runway. And the even sort of better

857
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:36,720
Speaker 3: news is that batteries now alongside solar are getting cheaper

858
00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 3: and cheaper and cheaper, and we're hitting milestones on there.

859
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 3: Even wind, even though it's got to have a lot

860
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 3: of bad headlines lately, are getting cheaper. Even evs, which

861
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:48,359
Speaker 3: also have got a lot of bad headlines lately, are

862
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:52,319
Speaker 3: getting cheaper. It's all just about timing, right, I mean,

863
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 3: the consensus target of the UN, of the countries involved

864
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:58,920
Speaker 3: in the UN process was two degrees with you know,

865
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 3: with efforts to limited to one point five degrees above

866
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:06,839
Speaker 3: pre industrial temperatures. We've already blown one point five. We're

867
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 3: headed to two. So that's already bad news. It's already bad,

868
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 3: like it's already happening and bad. This is all of

869
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:16,239
Speaker 3: climate change is just about how bad does it get?

870
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:18,799
Speaker 3: How much do you limit it? And so I you know,

871
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 3: so there's these two contrasting forces. On the one side,

872
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:25,719
Speaker 3: you have politics, which are slow and frustrating and incumbents

873
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,719
Speaker 3: have a ton of power to slow things down and

874
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 3: muddy the waters. And on the other hand you have technology.

875
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 3: Technology is like unstoppably moving forward at this point. So

876
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 3: it's just how those two balance out, and it's you know,

877
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:39,320
Speaker 3: it's hard to predict.

878
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 1: But I also do think, like what you were saying

879
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:46,319
Speaker 1: just now is that we are in a moment where

880
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 1: there's a lot of exciting stuff happening. This summer is

881
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:52,799
Speaker 1: going to be another really hot summer. I mean, like

882
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 1: the effects of climate change are happening now.

883
00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 2: I mean, are we at a place where it can't

884
00:45:57,560 --> 00:46:00,200
Speaker 2: be reversed? And can you just talk about it?

885
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 3: Sort of looks like in the day to day this

886
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:06,720
Speaker 3: is sort of the aspect of things that climate people

887
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:11,320
Speaker 3: don't really enjoy talking about because it's not it's not great,

888
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:15,720
Speaker 3: But like the next call it ten to twenty thirty

889
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 3: years of warming are more or less built in. Like,

890
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 3: there are some things we can do to affect warming

891
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 3: in the short term, mainly methane. This is something that

892
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:29,440
Speaker 3: should stick in people's minds. Methane. It's a greenhouse gas.

893
00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 3: It is more potent at trapping heat than CO two,

894
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:37,760
Speaker 3: but stays in the atmosphere much less time. It falls

895
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:39,839
Speaker 3: out on its own relatively quickly.

896
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:41,320
Speaker 2: But it makes it hot fast.

897
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 3: Yes, so if we can cut methane emissions substantially quickly,

898
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 3: then you can have a relatively quick effect on temperatures.

899
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:51,799
Speaker 3: But I don't mean bring temperatures down. I just mean

900
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 3: have them go up more slowly.

901
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 2: It's so bad.

902
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 3: Temperatures are not going to stabilize. I mean, this is

903
00:46:58,200 --> 00:47:00,160
Speaker 3: the basic math of climate change that everybody but they

904
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:03,200
Speaker 3: need to understand. Temperatures are not going to stabilize until

905
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:07,560
Speaker 3: we hit net zero, until we stop sending greenhouse gases

906
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 3: into the atmosphere. So until that happens, temperatures are going

907
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 3: to grow and grow, and effects are going to get

908
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 3: worse and worse. And some of that is built in already,

909
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 3: Like I don't think we're not going to see like

910
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:21,680
Speaker 3: these wildfires. We're not going to see that trend reversed

911
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:26,439
Speaker 3: in our lifetime, especially us olds best case scenario, best

912
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 3: case scenario that's a century or two away, after we've

913
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 3: you know, stabilized, stopped emitting greenhouse gases, then started sequestering

914
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:36,400
Speaker 3: a bunch of them, so we're actually lowering the amount

915
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:39,879
Speaker 3: of CO two in the atmosphere, and then scientists think

916
00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 3: maybe over decades temperatures might come might start coming back

917
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 3: down again. But like that's our kids kids, maybe best

918
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:50,080
Speaker 3: case scenario that are going to experience that For us

919
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:53,120
Speaker 3: in our lifetimes, temperatures are just going to go up

920
00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:55,239
Speaker 3: and the effects are just going to get worse. That's

921
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:56,759
Speaker 3: just the rude truth of it.

922
00:47:57,160 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 1: One other thing that we don't really know too much about,

923
00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:09,840
Speaker 1: but they're certainly hints is cancer and chemicals and environmental contaminating.

924
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:11,479
Speaker 2: Like, I mean, is.

925
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 1: There more of a suggestion that these two things are,

926
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:20,000
Speaker 1: you know, the environmental the pollution and the chemicals and

927
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:23,240
Speaker 1: carcinogens and cancer rates rising?

928
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:24,719
Speaker 2: Can you talk about that?

929
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 3: There are connections, and some of them are a little

930
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:30,960
Speaker 3: bit counterintuitive. Like the obvious connection is plastics, So like,

931
00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 3: plastics are awful, They cause all sorts of awful health problems,

932
00:48:34,719 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 3: they cause all sorts of awful environmental problems, and they

933
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:43,319
Speaker 3: use tons of fossil fuels, and we don't have good

934
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 3: ways of decarbonizing them, Like we do not yet have

935
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:51,200
Speaker 3: good scalable alternatives to fossil fuel based plastics. Like if

936
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 3: you want to really get depressed, read up about plastics

937
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:58,719
Speaker 3: and plastic policy. Like that's like it's just all all grim.

938
00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:03,280
Speaker 3: Another and more counterintuitive connection is the kind of particulate

939
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 3: air pollution that is worst for us, worst for our health,

940
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 3: is in part created by burning fossil fuels. But it

941
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:16,960
Speaker 3: also that very same pollution shields us from the sun

942
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:19,600
Speaker 3: a little bit like shields us from some of the

943
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 3: effects of climate change. So as we start cleaning up

944
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 3: and burning fewer fossil fuels, there's going to be less

945
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:29,440
Speaker 3: of that particulate pollution, and so temperatures are actually gonna

946
00:49:29,600 --> 00:49:33,239
Speaker 3: counterintuitively spike a little bit when we clean up that

947
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 3: air pollution. So that means we have to reduce sort

948
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:38,480
Speaker 3: of twice as fast as we think we do to

949
00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 3: get the beneficial effects. This is what you know. When

950
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 3: people talk about geoengineering, they talk about spraying particles up

951
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 3: into the atmosphere to shield us from the sun. That's

952
00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:49,399
Speaker 3: basically what we're doing by burning fossil fuels, only we're

953
00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:52,360
Speaker 3: doing it in an extremely unhealthy way. And that's what

954
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 3: geoengineering is talking about, just doing that in a less

955
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 3: unhealthy way. But you clean up pollution, in some sense,

956
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:00,720
Speaker 3: you make climate change worse, at least in the short term.

957
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:04,320
Speaker 1: The polling on climate change depending on how you ask

958
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 1: and talk about that.

959
00:50:06,200 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 3: The way I'd summarize it is, I think most people,

960
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:13,359
Speaker 3: average people, normies, people on the street just don't have

961
00:50:13,640 --> 00:50:17,520
Speaker 3: deep opinions about climate change at all, or deep feelings

962
00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 3: or really deep beliefs about it. They're very shallow, you know.

963
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:23,279
Speaker 3: They have a couple of things that have lodged in

964
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 3: their minds, which means you can get them to say

965
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:27,719
Speaker 3: almost anything on a pole. You can get them to

966
00:50:27,760 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 3: say yes it's important. You can get them to say

967
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 3: no it's not important, just depending on how you word

968
00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:35,080
Speaker 3: the question. They're just very shallow and can be easily

969
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:38,239
Speaker 3: pushed this way and that generally what you find though,

970
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:41,279
Speaker 3: is people will say, yes, I think climate change is

971
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:43,080
Speaker 3: the problem. Yes, we should do something about it. No,

972
00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 3: I do not want to personally pay much more to help.

973
00:50:46,080 --> 00:50:48,200
Speaker 3: That's what people will say on polls. But I don't

974
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:50,920
Speaker 3: know if that's a very good guide to the politics.

975
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:53,600
Speaker 3: I just don't think issue polls are worth the paper

976
00:50:53,640 --> 00:50:56,840
Speaker 3: they're printed on, obviously. And what's frustrating to me that

977
00:50:56,880 --> 00:50:59,000
Speaker 3: I'd like to get out while we're talking here is

978
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 3: this is frustrating me forever, the conflation of sort of

979
00:51:02,080 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 3: climate change, the damage of climate change, all that stuff

980
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:09,160
Speaker 3: with the clean energy transition. The clean energy transition is

981
00:51:09,280 --> 00:51:11,839
Speaker 3: going to help with climate change, for sure, but it's

982
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:15,480
Speaker 3: also going to be awesome for a bunch of other reasons.

983
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 3: It's going to create jobs, it's going to clean up

984
00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:21,279
Speaker 3: our air and improve our health almost immediately, it's going

985
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:24,759
Speaker 3: to create energy security. These are the industries that are

986
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,759
Speaker 3: going to dominate the twenty first century. So it's you know,

987
00:51:27,840 --> 00:51:31,279
Speaker 3: it's economic competitiveness. Like there are a million reasons to

988
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 3: do the clean energy transition that have nothing to do

989
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:35,239
Speaker 3: with climate change, and so I would love it if

990
00:51:35,239 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 3: we could like start talking about that as a separate

991
00:51:37,960 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 3: thing and polling it separately and not conflating those things

992
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:44,960
Speaker 3: because climate change has become kind of a culture war thing.

993
00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:48,800
Speaker 3: It's been coded with all this weird culture war baggage.

994
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 3: But if you just talk with people about, like would

995
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:55,319
Speaker 3: you like a car that goes way faster and does

996
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:58,400
Speaker 3: not poison you when you're driving it, Like, you know,

997
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:01,319
Speaker 3: there are lots of reasons to go for that new

998
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:03,800
Speaker 3: car that just have nothing to do with climate change.

999
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:06,120
Speaker 3: So I would just love to get people excited about

1000
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:08,440
Speaker 3: the clean energy transition in and of itself.

1001
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:15,000
Speaker 1: Yeah me too, man, meat too. I mean, just so insane.

1002
00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:18,000
Speaker 1: Doctor Voltz, thank you so much. I know your name

1003
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:21,640
Speaker 1: is really David Roberts, but I really appreciate you.

1004
00:52:21,840 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 2: And that was great.

1005
00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:29,279
Speaker 3: Thank you, awesome, happy to be here, No moment full.

1006
00:52:30,120 --> 00:52:34,840
Speaker 7: Jesse Cannon, Molly Jong Fast Marjorie Taylor Green is having

1007
00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 7: fantasies and delusions yet again. This time it's about Trump

1008
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 7: being in prison, which I thought was saved for the left.

1009
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 1: Here's the quote. They want to lock him up in

1010
00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 1: jail for the rest of his life, so he dies

1011
00:52:45,600 --> 00:52:50,160
Speaker 1: in jail. She told Jones, a conspiracy theorist who owes

1012
00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 1: the victims of Sandy Hook one point five billion dollars.

1013
00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know.

1014
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 1: Is there a more cursed paragraph and American political discourse

1015
00:52:59,080 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 1: than that?

1016
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:03,439
Speaker 2: And that curse paragraph is our moment of fuck Ray.

1017
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:07,799
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

1018
00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:11,080
Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to hear the best minds

1019
00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:14,320
Speaker 1: in politics makes sense of all this chaos. If you

1020
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:17,120
Speaker 1: enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to a friend

1021
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:20,720
Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks for listening.