WEBVTT - How the Longest Government Shutdown Is Impacting the Economy

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>The US is now on day thirty seven of its

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<v Speaker 2>longest government shutdown ever.

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<v Speaker 3>Food banks around the country are seeing increased demand as

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<v Speaker 3>people look to replace federal food benefits that were cut off.

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<v Speaker 4>Tens of thousands of additional federal workers have joined hundreds

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<v Speaker 4>of thousands already furlough.

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump's Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announcing the FAA will

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<v Speaker 1>cut flight capacity by ten percent, which experts say means

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<v Speaker 1>thousands of flights will be canceled.

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<v Speaker 5>The longer it goes on. And we see this in

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<v Speaker 5>the polling that the numbers creep up in terms of

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<v Speaker 5>number of Americans who say that this shutdown is impacting

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<v Speaker 5>them personally.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's White House reporter Gregory Cordy.

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<v Speaker 5>And that's because there's a lot of monthly things that

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<v Speaker 5>the government does. If you're renewing a passport, if you

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<v Speaker 5>rely on any kind of assistance over time, you're going

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<v Speaker 5>to start to notice that your government's not responsive to

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<v Speaker 5>your needs.

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<v Speaker 4>Certainly, we are coming up against to the Thanksgiving holiday

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<v Speaker 4>and just a few weeks.

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<v Speaker 2>Here, Bloomberg's Congress editor Megan Scully.

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<v Speaker 4>And we're seeing flight delays due to groundstops because of

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<v Speaker 4>staffing shortages, particularly among air traffic controllers. Food prices have

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<v Speaker 4>been a problem for many Americans now for the last

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<v Speaker 4>several years, and with the shutdown comes uncertainty about the

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<v Speaker 4>immediate future of snap benefits.

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<v Speaker 5>Every shutdown is a little different. We and Washington have

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<v Speaker 5>gotten used to this as a symptom of our political dysfunction,

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<v Speaker 5>and to some extent, there's a script. But every shutdown,

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<v Speaker 5>the political context is different, the timing is different. The

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<v Speaker 5>government just does different things at different times of the year,

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<v Speaker 5>and so yeah, leading into the holidays, and with the

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<v Speaker 5>background of this affordability crisis, it's a perfect storm of

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<v Speaker 5>issues all coming together with this shutdown.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News Today on the show, the longest government shutdown

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<v Speaker 2>in American history, Who it's impacting most, and what it

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<v Speaker 2>means for the economy long term. The US's prolonged shutdown

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<v Speaker 2>started on October first, after negotiations over the government's spending

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<v Speaker 2>package broke down. Democrats couldn't get Republicans to agree to

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<v Speaker 2>include subsidies for Affordable Care Act healthcare plans in the bill.

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<v Speaker 2>Without them, the average healthcare premium is expected to double.

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<v Speaker 2>And as the weeks have dragged on, the consequences of

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<v Speaker 2>the shutdown and the stakes of reopening have become more

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<v Speaker 2>and more urgent.

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<v Speaker 5>Without a federal budget to pay for a whole variety

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<v Speaker 5>of programs, One of the casualties of that is the

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<v Speaker 5>Food Assistance program.

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<v Speaker 2>That's my colleague Gregory Cordy, who covers the White House

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<v Speaker 2>and the Budget.

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<v Speaker 5>Formerly we knew as for food stamps. Now we call

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<v Speaker 5>it SNAP, And as we get into the second month

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<v Speaker 5>of the shutdown, the benefits well is running dry. This

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<v Speaker 5>foodstamp program is funded on a month to month basis,

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<v Speaker 5>but it costs about eight billion dollars eight or nine

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<v Speaker 5>to fund food stamps for a month.

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<v Speaker 2>SNAP has only been funded through October, and Bloomberg's Congress

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<v Speaker 2>editor Megan Scully says the question of what happens to

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<v Speaker 2>SNAP funding in November has been at the center of

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<v Speaker 2>an ongoing legal fight.

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<v Speaker 4>We've really seen Trump's priorities here. He has been very

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<v Speaker 4>free with moving money to pay for military salaries, to

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<v Speaker 4>pay for our salaries for law enforcement. But he went

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<v Speaker 4>to court to fight against moving money out of the

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<v Speaker 4>contingency Fund to pay for SNAP. Particularly the SNAP fight

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<v Speaker 4>has been interesting given that this administration, particularly the White

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<v Speaker 4>House Budget Office, has been extremely aggressive about asserting the

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<v Speaker 4>power of the purse, which is really Congress's domain. But

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<v Speaker 4>we saw with a SNAP fight for them, they really

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<v Speaker 4>took a step back and said, no, we cannot legally

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<v Speaker 4>move these funds until they were ordered by a federal

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<v Speaker 4>judge to do so.

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<v Speaker 2>The federal judge ordered the Trump administration to dip into

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<v Speaker 2>the USDA's contingency fund to cover SNAP benefits, but the

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<v Speaker 2>Trump administration says that money isn't enough to cover all

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<v Speaker 2>of the forty two million people who rely on the

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<v Speaker 2>program each month. In a court filing late Wednesday night,

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<v Speaker 2>lawyers for the Department of Justice said they could only

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<v Speaker 2>cover two thirds of recipient's benefits for November, But on Thursday,

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<v Speaker 2>a federal judge in Rhode Island issued a new order

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<v Speaker 2>saying the Trump administration has to find a way to

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<v Speaker 2>pay out the full amount. Food access isn't the only

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<v Speaker 2>thing that could be disrupted by the shutdown. As government

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<v Speaker 2>employees across the country go without pay or are furloughed,

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<v Speaker 2>it becomes harder and harder to pay bills like rents

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<v Speaker 2>and mortgages. Given the length of the disruption, Gregory's team

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<v Speaker 2>has been watching for signals that evictions or foreclosures could

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<v Speaker 2>be on the horizon.

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<v Speaker 5>Usually it takes sixty to ninety days for an eviction

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<v Speaker 5>to work its way through whatever local process there is

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<v Speaker 5>from state to state. But we've seen things like federal

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<v Speaker 5>agencies give letters to their employees that they can then

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<v Speaker 5>take to their mortgage company or their landlord saying, please

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<v Speaker 5>excuse this federal employee from having to pay their rent

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<v Speaker 5>this month because we're in the middle of a shutdown.

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<v Speaker 5>Of course, that letter has no legal bearing. Your bank

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<v Speaker 5>or your landlord is under no legal obligation to honor

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<v Speaker 5>what's essentially an IOU from the federal government. We're going

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<v Speaker 5>to pay this employee when the shutdown ends, Can you

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<v Speaker 5>please let them slide on their rent? Those are the

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<v Speaker 5>kinds of things as the shutdown continues that federal employees

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<v Speaker 5>are feeling the strain, and of course that reverberates through

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<v Speaker 5>the federal government as absenteeism rates go up from federal employees,

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<v Speaker 5>many of whom are doing essential functions but have to

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<v Speaker 5>juggle childcare and rent and other things in their daily

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<v Speaker 5>lives because they're not getting paid.

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<v Speaker 2>Those apps and tea rates can have a huge impact

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<v Speaker 2>on one sector, in particular, air travel. When the government

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<v Speaker 2>is shut down, workers under the Federal Aviation Administration, like

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<v Speaker 2>air traffic controllers, have to work without pay, so do

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<v Speaker 2>Transportation Security Administration workers TSA agents.

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<v Speaker 4>We are seeing their apps and tee rates begin to

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<v Speaker 4>tick up, resulting in flight delays and groundholds at airports

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<v Speaker 4>around the country. Just last week, when the Senate was

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<v Speaker 4>leaving town for a long weekend, the air traffic controllers

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<v Speaker 4>at Reagan National Airport, the airport that most Senators used

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<v Speaker 4>to leave DC, the closest airport to downtown Washington. Several

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<v Speaker 4>air traffic controllers did not show up to work, and

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<v Speaker 4>they had to do a ground stop, delaying traffic out

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<v Speaker 4>of DC and delaying the center's ability to go home.

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<v Speaker 2>With Thanksgiving only a few weeks away, a holiday where

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<v Speaker 2>millions of Americans fly, the prospect of snarled airports and

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<v Speaker 2>stranded tray travelers is another factor that could push Congress

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<v Speaker 2>toward a shutdown resolution. On Tuesday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy,

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<v Speaker 2>stuck with the White House's position, blaming Democrats for the shutdown,

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<v Speaker 2>and he warned that soon things could get even worse.

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<v Speaker 3>So if you bring us to a week from today, Democrats,

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<v Speaker 3>you will see mass chaos. You will see mass flight delays,

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<v Speaker 3>you'll see mass cancelations, and you may see us close

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<v Speaker 3>certain parts of the airspace because we just cannot manage it,

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<v Speaker 3>because we don't have air traffic.

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<v Speaker 2>Then, on Wednesday, Duffy announced that the FAA would order

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<v Speaker 2>airlines across forty major US airports to cut their flight

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<v Speaker 2>capacity by ten percent, set to start on Friday. Airlines

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<v Speaker 2>have started publishing updates about possible cancelations on their websites. So,

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<v Speaker 2>with pressure mounting, what could get Congress to agree on

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<v Speaker 2>a reopening plan, And even after the government shutdown ends,

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<v Speaker 2>what could the lingering economic consequences be. That's after the break.

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<v Speaker 2>We're nearing the close of the thirty seventh day of

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<v Speaker 2>the US government shutdown. Every day it continues, Congress is

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<v Speaker 2>under more and more pressure to come to a compromise

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<v Speaker 2>that would end it. Tuesday's elections around the country swung

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<v Speaker 2>in Democrats' favor, which some Republicans took as a signal

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<v Speaker 2>that the shutdown could have lasting political consequences. Trump has

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<v Speaker 2>repeatedly called for abolishing the filibuster in the Senate, an

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<v Speaker 2>extreme move that would allow Republicans to force through a

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<v Speaker 2>partisan budget on a simple majority vote, But Republicans in

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<v Speaker 2>the Senate are wary of how Democrats could leverage that

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<v Speaker 2>in the future and don't seem to have an appetite

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<v Speaker 2>to do it. My colleagues, Congress editor Megen Scully and

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<v Speaker 2>White House reporter Gregory Corre, have been at the White

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<v Speaker 2>House and at the Capitol looking for signs of when

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<v Speaker 2>the stalemate might thaw. Here's Megan on the state of play.

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<v Speaker 4>I think what we're seeing now is, particularly in the Senate,

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<v Speaker 4>we are seeing some softening among Senate Democrats on the

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<v Speaker 4>hardline that they've taken on the shutdown. They had demanded

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<v Speaker 4>that Affordable Care Act subsidies be addressed before they would

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<v Speaker 4>vote to reopen the government. There are some moderates who

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<v Speaker 4>are in talks with Republicans who are saying, just give

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<v Speaker 4>us the promise of a vote down the road. Any

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<v Speaker 4>kind of bipartisan deal has not come out yet, has

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<v Speaker 4>not come to the floor. We're paying attention to the

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<v Speaker 4>Senate right now because the Senate has the filibuster still

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<v Speaker 4>in place, which we've heard President Trump certainly complain about

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<v Speaker 4>in recent days. But that means that at least eight

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<v Speaker 4>Senate Democrats need to sign on to this stopgap spending

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<v Speaker 4>bill to get it through that chamber. It cannot pass

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<v Speaker 4>as of right now on a simple majority.

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<v Speaker 2>Can you characterize the Democrats' strategy versus the republicans strategy

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<v Speaker 2>right now? Gregory? How are each side of the aisle

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<v Speaker 2>sort of thinking about ending the shutdown?

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<v Speaker 5>Well, I think both sides are keeping a close eye

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<v Speaker 5>on the polling on this, which has favorite Democrats. If

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<v Speaker 5>you look at the history of the modern shutdown back

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<v Speaker 5>through the gingrid shutdowns of the nineties, generally voters view

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<v Speaker 5>Republicans as the aggressors on these shutdowns, even if the

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<v Speaker 5>shoes on the other foot, And so the pulling this

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<v Speaker 5>time around shows maybe a slightly narrower difference between the

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<v Speaker 5>two parties, but that voters blame Republicans more than Democrats.

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<v Speaker 5>So Democrats have that at their backs. They also have

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<v Speaker 5>the elections this week, which they did very well on

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<v Speaker 5>up and down the ballot.

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<v Speaker 2>And do you think the shutdown and the chaos at

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<v Speaker 2>the federal government level had anything to do with those wins.

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<v Speaker 5>President Trump certainly thinks so. He was out very early

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<v Speaker 5>even on election night, blaming the shutdown for what happened.

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<v Speaker 5>But I think both sides are taking stocks their wins

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<v Speaker 5>and losses and trying to see if there is a

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<v Speaker 5>new way forward on this that will require both sides

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<v Speaker 5>to swallow a little bit of their pride and look,

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<v Speaker 5>compromise is a dirty word in Washington these days. It

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<v Speaker 5>gets harder and harder to do these deals with each

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<v Speaker 5>successive shutdown, with each successive.

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<v Speaker 4>Budget fight, each shutdown is different. And aside from the

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<v Speaker 4>length of this shutdown, what has struck me about this

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<v Speaker 4>is the lack of negotiations. Each day in the capital.

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<v Speaker 4>We've gotten into a routine where Speaker Johnson has a

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<v Speaker 4>ten o'clock press conference, Hakem. Jeffreys has one, a little

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<v Speaker 4>while later, Chuck Schumer has one, John Thune has one.

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<v Speaker 4>We're seeing letters being sent in the actual mail to

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<v Speaker 4>people who work down the hall from each other. They're

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<v Speaker 4>talking to the press, they're reiterating talking points over and

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<v Speaker 4>over and throughout the day, but they're not talking to

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<v Speaker 4>each other at all.

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<v Speaker 5>There used to be not that long ago. These gangs

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<v Speaker 5>of senators right that would work across the island. There

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<v Speaker 5>would be a gang of eight or a gang of six,

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<v Speaker 5>or or whatever number they needed to find the middle

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<v Speaker 5>ground to reach a compromise. And that just doesn't happen anymore.

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<v Speaker 2>On Thursday, House Speaker Mike Johnson said he's not optimistic

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<v Speaker 2>about a quick end to the shutdown. Senate Democrats, emboldened

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<v Speaker 2>by Tuesday's election results, spent much of the morning hunkered

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<v Speaker 2>down in Chuck Schumer's capital office weighing their own next steps.

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<v Speaker 2>But whenever the shutdown does end, things won't go back

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<v Speaker 2>to normal overnight.

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<v Speaker 5>When the shutdown ends. Whenever it ends, be that this

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<v Speaker 5>week or Thanksgiving or the end of the year, or whenever,

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<v Speaker 5>the question is going to be what starts back up

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<v Speaker 5>again in what has been dormant for so long during

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<v Speaker 5>the shutdown that we might not see it ever come back.

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<v Speaker 4>So typically during a government shutdown, we lose about fifteen

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<v Speaker 4>billion dollars a week is the sort of agreed upon

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<v Speaker 4>general estimate that is typically recovered though the end of

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<v Speaker 4>the shutdown, when all federal employees, including those who are

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<v Speaker 4>essential and furloughed, get their back pay. And they can

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<v Speaker 4>pay their bills, and they can do their Christmas shopping

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<v Speaker 4>and all of that. Typically, not everything, but most economic

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<v Speaker 4>activity is recovered. What's different about this one? There are

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<v Speaker 4>a few things that are different about this one. One,

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<v Speaker 4>Trump has threatened not to pay furloughed federal employees back,

0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:31.320
<v Speaker 4>which has created a level of uncertainty among that population

0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:35.439
<v Speaker 4>of people. The other one is lingering concerns about long

0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:39.080
<v Speaker 4>term layoffs and what happens. So far, the layoffs have

0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:43.480
<v Speaker 4>been targeted and have been relatively small. But this comes

0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:47.000
<v Speaker 4>on the heels of cuts made by Elon Musk's Doge

0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:51.040
<v Speaker 4>Group earlier this year, by federal employees who have chosen

0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:55.760
<v Speaker 4>to quote take the fork and received essentially a buyout

0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:59.040
<v Speaker 4>for resigning their positions. It's just one more layer of

0:13:59.080 --> 0:14:01.040
<v Speaker 4>complexity to this workforce.

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<v Speaker 5>Certainly, I think what the Trump administration has already done

0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:11.360
<v Speaker 5>is looked at what areas that Congress hasn't funded and said, okay, look,

0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:13.720
<v Speaker 5>if Congress has determined that these aren't things that we

0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:16.920
<v Speaker 5>really have to do during a shutdown, then maybe we

0:14:16.920 --> 0:14:18.040
<v Speaker 5>don't have to do them. Ever.

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<v Speaker 4>But in addition to the federal workforce, you have forty

0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:25.520
<v Speaker 4>two million Americans who get snap benefits who are financially

0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:29.280
<v Speaker 4>constrained more so than usual during the shutdown. And then

0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:32.160
<v Speaker 4>you have another twenty four million Americans who are getting

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:35.600
<v Speaker 4>notices now and have to decide whether or not to

0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:39.920
<v Speaker 4>continue their Affordable Care Act insurance into next year. So

0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:42.880
<v Speaker 4>there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty. And this is

0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:46.000
<v Speaker 4>not a small portion of the population. It's a pretty

0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:48.280
<v Speaker 4>big swath of the US economy.

0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:52.880
<v Speaker 2>Measuring the true economic impacts of the shutdown and its

0:14:52.960 --> 0:14:57.040
<v Speaker 2>aftermath will pose its own challenge. The agencies that collect

0:14:57.080 --> 0:15:01.800
<v Speaker 2>economic statistical data have also gone dark. September reports went out,

0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:04.880
<v Speaker 2>but no October data has been collected or shared.

0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:08.840
<v Speaker 5>We've already missed a month's worth of price data. We

0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:12.480
<v Speaker 5>are missing employment data. We might be able to fill

0:15:12.480 --> 0:15:15.000
<v Speaker 5>in the gaps of some of those going backwards. It's

0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:17.600
<v Speaker 5>really hard to collect prices if you're not doing it

0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:21.520
<v Speaker 5>in real time. The Census Bureau is almost entirely shut down.

0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:26.480
<v Speaker 5>So not only is this shut down impacting basic government services,

0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:28.920
<v Speaker 5>but it's also creating a huge hole in our knowledge

0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:33.200
<v Speaker 5>of exactly what the state of the economy is. And

0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:36.800
<v Speaker 5>many of these statistics will take years to sort of

0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:40.720
<v Speaker 5>recover and find its new baseline, and along with the

0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:45.200
<v Speaker 5>Trump administration's cuts to statistical agencies, again, some of those

0:15:45.360 --> 0:15:47.520
<v Speaker 5>statistics that we take for granted here at Boomberg may

0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:48.200
<v Speaker 5>never come back.

0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:54.040
<v Speaker 2>I pose the hardest question to Megan. She's covered Congress

0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:57.280
<v Speaker 2>for years, so I asked her when she thinks the

0:15:57.320 --> 0:15:58.640
<v Speaker 2>shutdown might end.

0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:02.080
<v Speaker 4>I think we are starting to see some early shoots

0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:06.080
<v Speaker 4>of compromise that could bring an end to this shutdown

0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:09.400
<v Speaker 4>by the middle of next week. That will require not

0:16:09.480 --> 0:16:12.440
<v Speaker 4>just a deal in the Senate, but Mike Johnson agreeing

0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:16.840
<v Speaker 4>to whatever the Senate decides and bringing those four hundred

0:16:16.840 --> 0:16:19.880
<v Speaker 4>and thirty five members back to Washington to vote, and

0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:24.000
<v Speaker 4>of course Donald Trump agreeing to the deal as well.

0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:27.600
<v Speaker 4>But I should also note that even when we get

0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:31.160
<v Speaker 4>to the end of this shutdown, the clock is just

0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:34.920
<v Speaker 4>starting to what might be the next shutdown. We're looking

0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:40.760
<v Speaker 4>at delaying this debate over federal appropriations into December or January,

0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:44.960
<v Speaker 4>not indefinitely, so there will be celebration when the government

0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:48.800
<v Speaker 4>reopens and federal workers are paid and TSA and air

0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:52.240
<v Speaker 4>traffic controllers are fully staffed. But we could be going

0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:55.160
<v Speaker 4>through this all over again in just a month or two.

0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:59.600
<v Speaker 2>Wow. So this government shutdown is the longest in history,

0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:01.720
<v Speaker 2>but it might not be the.

0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:02.760
<v Speaker 4>Last, certainly not.

0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:08.840
<v Speaker 2>This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder.

0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:11.760
<v Speaker 2>To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access

0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:15.679
<v Speaker 2>to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg

0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:19.320
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0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:22.040
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0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:24.640
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0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:27.480
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.