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Speaker 3: Caro, we are so fortunate.
Speaker 4: I feel like here at Bloomer did we get to
Speaker 4: speak to so many really totally smart and experienced investors
Speaker 4: that have managed, you know, billions of dollars of assets
Speaker 4: on behalf of their clients and have seen everything. They've
Speaker 4: seen different cycles, different sector moves. Our next guest is
Speaker 4: right at the top of that list, Karen Murphy, CIO
Speaker 4: of Kestra Investment Management. I don't know what Kester Investment
Speaker 4: Management is, but she's worked all over Wall Street her
Speaker 4: entire career. It's just amazing we get to speak to
Speaker 4: some of these people. So, Cara, thanks again for joining
Speaker 4: us here. I mean, Karen and I have been talking
Speaker 4: about today. You know, we got that retail sales number today.
Speaker 4: I'm not sure the FED needs to do anything and
Speaker 4: I think I'm okay if they don't do anything in November.
Speaker 4: How are you viewing this economy and this market right here.
Speaker 5: I think you're right to be really marveling at these
Speaker 5: strong retail sales numbers.
Speaker 6: You know, earlier this year, when we were.
Speaker 5: Looking at not nominal retail sales, but real retail sales,
Speaker 5: there was a concern because those had turned negative for
Speaker 5: a little while. But over the last few months we
Speaker 5: have seen a very definitive turn in both nominal and
Speaker 5: real retail sales to going positive. And it's a bit
Speaker 5: of a head scratcher because when we look at the
Speaker 5: consumer confidence numbers, they continue to be in recessionary territory.
Speaker 5: But when we look at what consumers are doing with
Speaker 5: their actual dollars, they're out there spending like the economy
Speaker 5: is doing really, really well. So I think the FED.
Speaker 6: Should feel pretty comfortable about that.
Speaker 5: And I don't think that the house is on fire
Speaker 5: and the FED needs to come in with a bunch
Speaker 5: of rate cuts. I think they'll continue cutting rates, but
Speaker 5: they can take their time.
Speaker 7: Hey, Caren, you guys work with independent financial advisors. You're
Speaker 7: giving them some advice, you're giving them guidance, And I'm
Speaker 7: just curious, what is it that they are most concerned
Speaker 7: about right now? In this environment.
Speaker 6: Everybody's talking about the election.
Speaker 5: So for the next couple of weeks, it's going to
Speaker 5: be really hard to focus on anything else, and so
Speaker 5: a lot of what we're doing is trying to hold
Speaker 5: hands and tell people that we don't think that whoever
Speaker 5: ends up in the White House is going to have
Speaker 5: a big impact on the medium trajectory of the market.
Speaker 5: So you need to kind of sit through this in
Speaker 5: near term volatility. But then coming out of that just
Speaker 5: a couple of weeks from now, hopefully crossmakers. I think
Speaker 5: the focus will then return to earnings, which is really
Speaker 5: going to be the driver of the market. And there too,
Speaker 5: I think we're seeing pretty good trends.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I kind of wanted to go there.
Speaker 4: I mean, we've just had a some of the big
Speaker 4: banks report. I mean, we've got most of the rest
Speaker 4: of the S and P to come over the next
Speaker 4: couple of weeks. But the bank earnings, Karen and I
Speaker 4: were talking at the opening here this morning, they look
Speaker 4: pretty solid across the board.
Speaker 6: Quite solid.
Speaker 5: And again, if we have the FED continuing to cut
Speaker 5: at a modest rate, a more normal yield curve, activity
Speaker 5: is picking up in a lot of their core areas.
Speaker 5: Credit's okay, so they have a lot of things to
Speaker 5: be really positive about. And then when you look in
Speaker 5: particular at some of those small cat banks, they're the
Speaker 5: ones who are particularly interest rate sensitive, and we'll start
Speaker 5: to benefit from this new interest rate environment.
Speaker 7: Hey, Cara, one of the things too, Paul and I
Speaker 7: were as we were gearing up for you to join us.
Speaker 7: Your background is just way cool. You've worked in a
Speaker 7: lot of well known firms, whether it's Gold, mid Sax,
Speaker 7: whether it was AIG funds. But what's interesting is you
Speaker 7: go kind of way back before you tapped into the
Speaker 7: investment industry. You were an analysts covering international political and
Speaker 7: economic risk and you focused on Eastern Europe and Russia.
Speaker 7: One of the things that Paul brought up, which I
Speaker 7: thought was really brilliant, is that this idea that we
Speaker 7: have another headline that Israel saying hamas chief may have
Speaker 7: been killed in Gaza attacks, and yet the markets seem
Speaker 7: to take that in stride, or even if we see
Speaker 7: a blip, seems to recover quickly. What is going on
Speaker 7: in investment markets where geopolitical risks seems to be they
Speaker 7: kind of just take it in and kind of don't
Speaker 7: seem to overreact. Investors don't.
Speaker 5: It is quite remarkable, and you have to go deep
Speaker 5: into my resume to find that, but we did.
Speaker 3: We did.
Speaker 5: I find international politics incredibly interesting, and these types of
Speaker 5: things that you're talking about are really really important, but
Speaker 5: I don't talk about them all that often simply because
Speaker 5: US markets over time have shown us again and again
Speaker 5: that they can remain very well insulated from geopolitical risk.
Speaker 5: And that's a great benefit from being in the United States,
Speaker 5: which has you.
Speaker 6: Know, an ocean on either side.
Speaker 5: And if you look back in fact to when Russia
Speaker 5: in Vada, Ukraine at the time, I mean, there was
Speaker 5: a lot of concern war in Europe for the first
Speaker 5: time since World War Two, concerned about grains and other
Speaker 5: commodity prices oil, and very quickly, you know, within a
Speaker 5: couple of weeks or months, that risk started to feed
Speaker 5: from markets.
Speaker 6: And we've seen the same in the Middle East.
Speaker 5: And usually the big way that these geopolitical risks sort
Speaker 5: of transition from wherever they start to US markets is
Speaker 5: through oil. And interestingly, over the last twelve months, we've
Speaker 5: seen oil come down, I think driven by some softer demand,
Speaker 5: particularly in China, but that transmission mechanism has not really
Speaker 5: reared its ugly head, and so US markets are able
Speaker 5: to really shrug it off.
Speaker 4: Caro, how about the fixed income space. I can sit
Speaker 4: into your treasury and get four percent here?
Speaker 3: Is that okay? Or should I be taking some credit risk?
Speaker 3: Do you think so?
Speaker 5: We actually think corporate, so high quality credit is pretty
Speaker 5: attractive here.
Speaker 6: So you have nice nominal yields.
Speaker 5: You know, spreads are narrow, but not terribly narrow, and
Speaker 5: we'd actually rather be in a corporate space and be
Speaker 5: leaning into credit risk as opposed to duration risk right here. Now,
Speaker 5: once you get out the credit curve into high yield,
Speaker 5: that's where I start to get a little bit more worried,
Speaker 5: simply because if the FED rate cutting cycle takes a
Speaker 5: little bit longer in than what the market's currently expecting,
Speaker 5: some of those companies are not going to get the
Speaker 5: reliefs that they're really hoping for. And credit spreads are
Speaker 5: about at historic lows, so you're not getting paid to
Speaker 5: take a lot of that risk. But if you're in
Speaker 5: that sort of core credit, high quality borrowers, we think
Speaker 5: that's a really nice place to be.
Speaker 4: All right, how about one of the things I want
Speaker 4: to ask, given your great experiences alternatives. How do you
Speaker 4: guys allocate to alternatives? I was at a recently some
Speaker 4: talking to some retail investment advisors and they put a
Speaker 4: lot of allocation to alternatives.
Speaker 8: How do you think about that?
Speaker 5: So, I mean, alternatives can be a great addition to
Speaker 5: a diversified portfolio. I don't think you have to have
Speaker 5: alternatives to build wealth, and so we work with a
Speaker 5: lot of very high networks clients who do really really
Speaker 5: well over time with the simple stock bond Strategyously, I feel.
Speaker 7: Like every time I talk to a wealth manager, they
Speaker 7: are like, my clients want they want different ways. They
Speaker 7: want to they want to tap the private credit markets.
Speaker 7: They want to be they want that alpha, Like that's
Speaker 7: what they're asking about. So continue because I'm just kind
Speaker 7: of blown away. Yeah, it seems like everybody, but.
Speaker 6: So I would say some are.
Speaker 5: But once you start to get into the complexity and
Speaker 5: the sort of idiosyncrasies of some of those strategies, that's
Speaker 5: where it starts to become a little bit more tricky.
Speaker 5: And look, as we think about both credit and equity,
Speaker 5: because of you know, regulatory environment, a lot of different reasons,
Speaker 5: a fair amount of investment opportunities have been moved to
Speaker 5: those private markets. That said, there's a huge amount of complexity.
Speaker 5: There's you know, liquidity tie ups, there's paperwork that you
Speaker 5: have to do, and again a lot of idio idiosyncrasies
Speaker 5: where you have to work much harder to get a
Speaker 5: diversified alt portfolio. So we generally recommend keep it a
Speaker 5: small portion of your portfolio, keep it diversified by assea
Speaker 5: class and by manager, and that will protect you as
Speaker 5: you might get into rockier environments.
Speaker 4: All Right, Kerr, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 4: Always appreciate getting a few minutes of your time. Karen Murphy,
Speaker 4: she's the CIO at Kestre Investment Management, getting her thoughts
Speaker 4: on these markets.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 4: Our next guest, he clearly has a view on us,
Speaker 4: Matt Siegel. He said of digital assets research at Vanek, Matt,
Speaker 4: what are the smart people in crypto talking about today?
Speaker 4: What are the next things that we need to be
Speaker 4: thinking about going forward with crypto.
Speaker 9: Yeah, we're we have strong conviction that we're on the
Speaker 9: cusp of a high volatility rally in bitcoin. That would
Speaker 9: be a similar pattern to what happened around the twenty
Speaker 9: twenty election. So when you look at the volatility profile
Speaker 9: of FX fixed income equities, they're all at the high
Speaker 9: end of their range over the last year. Bitcoin stands
Speaker 9: out for trading at the low end of its volatility range.
Speaker 9: Now we're starting to see that change, and some of
Speaker 9: that is the market starting to price in the higher
Speaker 9: odds that Trump has in the election, and some of
Speaker 9: it is just seller's exhaustion. We had a lot of
Speaker 9: large sellers over the summer. They've kind of wrapped up,
Speaker 9: so the backdrop is looking pretty strong. There's also not
Speaker 9: much leverage in the space right now, so that is
Speaker 9: something that could emerge with a bit more optimism.
Speaker 7: Would you rather see a Trump White House versus a
Speaker 7: Harris White House based on maybe some of his comments
Speaker 7: on the crypto space?
Speaker 9: One hundred percent. The current administration has spent four years
Speaker 9: attacking this industry in every agency house house.
Speaker 3: So is it mister Gensler at the SEC or is
Speaker 3: it more than that?
Speaker 9: Well Biden put out an executive order in the first
Speaker 9: few months of his administration instructing all federal agencies to
Speaker 9: take a maximum enforcement approach towards this industry. Do you
Speaker 9: think because they want maximum control over the financial system,
Speaker 9: I want to be able to track and see every
Speaker 9: transaction and don't have a great respect for privacy, would
Speaker 9: be my take on it.
Speaker 7: I would counter, why not shouldn't they because bitcoin was
Speaker 7: initially kind of set up to be the anti establishment,
Speaker 7: right in terms of the financial industry, and yet you
Speaker 7: guys all want to now play kind of with the
Speaker 7: traditional environment and investors, now you know what I mean.
Speaker 7: So shouldn't there be some oversight to protect investors?
Speaker 9: Well, that's what the etf rapper did. And we've seen
Speaker 9: twenty billion dollars of flows into these spot bitcoin ETFs
Speaker 9: since their launch in January.
Speaker 7: And what we've noticed necessarily mean like I mean, investors
Speaker 7: want to play.
Speaker 9: With it, right, Yeah, So what we've noticed is that
Speaker 9: the weekly inflows into these bitcoin ETFs have been predictive
Speaker 9: of the next week's returns. So, yes, institutions do want
Speaker 9: access to this asset. It's a anti doll It's a
Speaker 9: fixed scarce asset with a predictable monetary policy, which is,
Speaker 9: you know, not what the FED has been following. And
Speaker 9: we can see that hedge fund holdings of the bitcoin
Speaker 9: ETFs were up forty percent in Q two. The number
Speaker 9: of public companies that now own bitcoin on their balance sheet,
Speaker 9: that number is also up forty percent year over year.
Speaker 9: It's approaching fifty different companies.
Speaker 3: So why would companies do is that? Why are they.
Speaker 9: They want to make money, it's the best performing asset class.
Speaker 7: Want to do it as a tiny slice to be
Speaker 7: fair even in a portfolio. If somebody comes on they
Speaker 7: say it's a tiny slice.
Speaker 9: You mean the listed companies who are adding bitcoin for
Speaker 9: micro strategy. It's not a tiny slice for block It's
Speaker 9: not a tiny slice for Reddit, It's not a tiny slice.
Speaker 9: These are meaningful allocations. If you look at crypto's correlations
Speaker 9: over the last ten years, the strongest correlation has been
Speaker 9: positive with money supply. So what is your last guest set?
Speaker 9: The FED is cutting rates, Let's get out of short
Speaker 9: term fixed instruments, Let's get into risky assets. This is
Speaker 9: where bitcoin has historically shined is when money supplies accelerating
Speaker 9: and the dollar is weak. So what's the election likely
Speaker 9: to solidify former years of irresponsible money printing. I just
Speaker 9: saw that Moody's has put a number of countries on
Speaker 9: warning for sovereign downgrades. They're on the lookout for when
Speaker 9: a country's tax revenue deficits and so on. Yeah, deficits, right,
Speaker 9: So they're looking at at scenarios where interest payments are
Speaker 9: more than twenty percent of federal revenues. In the US,
Speaker 9: it's twenty four percent right now. So we think that
Speaker 9: the market will refocus on this fiscal unsustainability after the election,
Speaker 9: and that will turbocharge bitcoin and cryptos performance.
Speaker 4: At vandeck, the flows coming into the crypto who are
Speaker 4: those people who like is it retail institutional?
Speaker 3: What are the fun flows that you guys see?
Speaker 9: Yeah, so not all of the ETF holders need to
Speaker 9: report their positions. So what we have observed is that
Speaker 9: hedge funds have been the largest purchasers of the bitcoin ETFs.
Speaker 9: Rias have been smaller, but they are growing. And even
Speaker 9: some public pension plants like Wisconsin, Michigan, Jersey City.
Speaker 8: Nice, there you go, you own it, Carol.
Speaker 9: And I think one of the most striking things about bitcoin.
Speaker 7: Gearing into Jersey City politics or their budget.
Speaker 9: One of the most striking things this year has been
Speaker 9: the transformation in the mainstream media around bitcoin's energy intensity.
Speaker 9: We've looked at some research analyzing the natural language models
Speaker 9: is how the media is treating bitcoin, and really that
Speaker 9: negativity has evaporated many you know, there's been a lot
Speaker 9: of peer reviewed research that's come out that has proven
Speaker 9: that bitcoin can help incentivize the renewable build out by
Speaker 9: acting as this economic battery. And it's been very encouraging
Speaker 9: to see that transformation. And because of that, Bitcoin and
Speaker 9: AI are now inextricably linked. Both require vast of energy.
Speaker 9: Bitcoin miners are beginning to pivot and transition some of
Speaker 9: their electricity to serve the AI market. And those bitcoin miners,
Speaker 9: the publicly traded ones that have pivoted their stocks have
Speaker 9: massively outperformed. So we think there's going to be more
Speaker 9: of that convergence between bitcoin and AI, and President Trump
Speaker 9: certainly understands not so.
Speaker 7: Bitcoin companies now are just saying, wait a minute, I've
Speaker 7: got a new revenue stream. I'm helping out the AI
Speaker 7: guys who need access to data sent.
Speaker 9: Yeah, the bitcoin miners traded about four million dollars per
Speaker 9: megawat of power that they control. The data center companies
Speaker 9: trade at forty million dollars per megawatt, so there is
Speaker 9: an enormous arbitrage. It takes a bit of capex to
Speaker 9: repurpose these facilities. You need redundant power, you need better
Speaker 9: fiber connections, more water. But once you do, the economics
Speaker 9: are highly compelling, and those are the stocks that are outperforming.
Speaker 4: Cryp crypt Go gives you a launch pad monitor for
Speaker 4: all that crypto stuff that Bloomberg's got it. What else
Speaker 4: besides Bitcoin should I be focusing on in the crypto space.
Speaker 9: Yeah, well, we like these smart contract platforms. These are
Speaker 9: the automated open source databases that act like an open
Speaker 9: source app store. So Solana and Ethereum would be among
Speaker 9: the most prominent. We've got regulators in the in the
Speaker 9: US and the EU suing all of big tech for monopoly.
Speaker 9: It's head scratching to me that the regulators don't incentivize
Speaker 9: growth in these open source app stores that can take
Speaker 9: margin away provide competition to the closed walled garden app stores.
Speaker 9: So Ethereum, Solana, these also look quite strong to us.
Speaker 3: Matt.
Speaker 7: Maybe I'm just stupid, like I still try to understand bitcoin, cryptocurrencies,
Speaker 7: what will be their role longer term? And I kind
Speaker 7: of understand blockchain in terms of putting some important documents
Speaker 7: and so on and so forth. I think that can
Speaker 7: cut out a lot of middleman and be efficient and
Speaker 7: understanding ownership. But tell me, like, what is still like?
Speaker 7: I don't go shopping with bitcoin, I don't pay bills
Speaker 7: with bitcoin trans to do that? He tried, and he
Speaker 7: still tries, Right, But I don't, right. And I understand
Speaker 7: we're going to get the emerging markets application, but it
Speaker 7: isn't widespread. So what is ultimately the endgame with bitcoin?
Speaker 7: And I asked that with pure respect of trying to
Speaker 7: understand where this goes.
Speaker 9: At its heart, this is an emerging market asset class
Speaker 9: that provides an alternative to the US monetary policy. And
Speaker 9: when we look at surveys around the world, the countries
Speaker 9: that are most optimistic about bitcoin tend to be the
Speaker 9: youngest countries Nigeria, the Philippines. The countries that are least
Speaker 9: optimistic about bitcoin are the oldest countries Germany, France. So
Speaker 9: we think of it as a way to get exposure
Speaker 9: to emerging markets in a one percent position. What it
Speaker 9: might take you a five percent position and an emerging market.
Speaker 9: It's fun to do. And meanwhile, that five percent position
Speaker 9: is thirty percent China. We're not seeing a lot of
Speaker 9: demand for that specific allocation from our clients.
Speaker 8: Great chat YEP.
Speaker 3: Also, pretty much everything I know from crypto I know
Speaker 3: from this guy.
Speaker 4: Matt Siegel, head of Digital assets research at van Neck.
Speaker 4: Of course he's originally from Bloomberg. That's the highlight of
Speaker 4: his career. We appreciate him coming in and giving us
Speaker 4: some thoughts on the whole crypto space.
Speaker 3: It really is helpful.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 4: Nineteen days, nineteen days the Election, David gerw you do
Speaker 4: the podcast thing this?
Speaker 3: I don't know what do we do?
Speaker 4: Nineteen days The Baby's Take Podcast, The Big Take Podcast.
Speaker 8: If you're either Kennedy, what do you do with nineteen
Speaker 8: days left?
Speaker 10: I guess I've got a piece of paper my desk,
Speaker 10: just noting where each of these candidates is over the
Speaker 10: next few days, and it's hard to keep track of
Speaker 10: because they are traveling a ton. But I think what
Speaker 10: we've seen in the last couple of days is them
Speaker 10: trying to reach out to this very small sliver of
Speaker 10: the population that remains. So you had former President Trump
Speaker 10: going to Miami to do this town hall with Univision.
Speaker 10: You had Vice President Harris sitting down in Pennsylvania with
Speaker 10: Brettbeer of Fox News. I think that her goal for
Speaker 10: that interview was to reach Republican women voters. And as
Speaker 10: I watched that interview unfold, it was interesting. There are
Speaker 10: no questions about reproductive rights, no questions about abortion. That's
Speaker 10: really what the Harris campaign has been focusing on to
Speaker 10: try to get some of those women to support her
Speaker 10: campaign didn't come up over the course of that interview.
Speaker 7: When it comes to seventeen days, I mean, what do
Speaker 7: voters want to hear? And I'm just curious what really
Speaker 7: sways them and makes them either change their mind or
Speaker 7: decide to kind of you get up and actually vote.
Speaker 10: It's interesting. I'd like to hope that it has to
Speaker 10: do with policy, and I think that if you look
Speaker 10: at the conversation that our college John Micklethwaite had with
Speaker 10: former President Trump earlier this week. That was a very
Speaker 10: policy heavy conversation. I'm not sure that that's going to
Speaker 10: sway voters at this point. And I'm as flummoxed as anyone,
Speaker 10: I think, by those who have been living through this
Speaker 10: campaign that has gone on for so long and still
Speaker 10: haven't made up their minds about who they're going to support.
Speaker 7: How long though for Kamala, and I wonder if that's
Speaker 7: a dissent advantage or advantage. I think I feel like
Speaker 7: there's some debate on that.
Speaker 10: It's a great question, and I think, you know, going
Speaker 10: back to that Fox News interview, I think there are
Speaker 10: a lot of people who haven't been exposed to her
Speaker 10: a ton don't know what she stands for, still have
Speaker 10: questions about her platform and her background, and I think, yes,
Speaker 10: there was that effort to reach out to those voters
Speaker 10: kind of on certain issues, but I think it was
Speaker 10: also just a moment for her to introduce herself to
Speaker 10: people who might not hear from her outside of soundbites
Speaker 10: on that network in particular.
Speaker 4: And David, I guess what I hear from a lot
Speaker 4: of the political pros is it's really going to be
Speaker 4: a story about turnout, and I guess how both sides
Speaker 4: thinking about turnout is a higher turnout and advantage for
Speaker 4: one versus the other.
Speaker 10: We know a lot more about the ground game that
Speaker 10: the Harris campaign has constructed, and of course, I think
Speaker 10: one of the more astonishing and interesting things about that
Speaker 10: transition that took place in July is that Kamala Harris
Speaker 10: inherited the campaign almost wholesale from President Biden, the staff,
Speaker 10: the whole apparatus. And so we know that they've raised
Speaker 10: an incredible amount of money billion dollars and they're deploying
Speaker 10: that on advertising, digital and TV advertising, traditional advertising, but
Speaker 10: also on the ground game as well. So in the
Speaker 10: memos that the campaign management puts out, they emphasize a
Speaker 10: lot how many volunteers, how much staff they have across
Speaker 10: the country, particularly in those swing states. We know less
Speaker 10: about the Trump campaign, but Trump campaigns raised a lot
Speaker 10: of money as well, has a lot of support from packs.
Speaker 10: Elon musk Is set up camp in Pennsylvania. So they
Speaker 10: are less clear about sort of how they're deploying that money.
Speaker 10: But I think you're right, Paul, that the ground game
Speaker 10: is crucial here in both candidates understand that, hey, there's.
Speaker 7: Early voting, though, David already in several states, and I'm
Speaker 7: just curious. I've been hearing it feel like it sounds
Speaker 7: like a lot of early voting happening, and I'm not
Speaker 7: sure what that is as an indicator.
Speaker 10: You know, I think it's a sign that people are
Speaker 10: engaged and that every vote is going to count and
Speaker 10: no candidate is taking votes for granted, any of these places,
Speaker 10: I think, you know, as from North Carolina and have
Speaker 10: been following through of what's been going on there with
Speaker 10: their fallout from the hurricane that hit.
Speaker 8: That they'll be able to vote.
Speaker 10: They will be able to vote, and you saw changes
Speaker 10: made both by the state election board and by the
Speaker 10: legislature as well to make it so that you could
Speaker 10: pick up your ballot in one place deposited in another.
Speaker 10: So I think that officials in that state in Florida
Speaker 10: as well, almost to the same extent, recognize the fact
Speaker 10: that this is something that's really friend of mine to
Speaker 10: a lot of people, and don't they don't. They don't
Speaker 10: want to make people have to be unable to vote obviously,
Speaker 10: or have difficulty voting. They're trying to make it more
Speaker 10: possible for them. I think Florida the hitches, there was
Speaker 10: a push for Governor Ron DeSantis to extend how you could,
Speaker 10: like you could register to vote. He hasn't budged on that.
Speaker 10: In North Carolina has been some flexibility there October.
Speaker 4: I mean, is there anything that could move this needle
Speaker 4: here one way or the other?
Speaker 3: Do you think? I mean October surprises. I'm not sure.
Speaker 3: We've had hurricanes and guy, so I'm not sure what
Speaker 3: that is.
Speaker 10: I think, barring that, I mean, going back to that
Speaker 10: Fox News interview, there has been some speculation could there
Speaker 10: be another debate. It's it's getting now pretty close to
Speaker 10: the election day and it seems like that's.
Speaker 3: Not going to happen. The erecting on the table could
Speaker 3: could be.
Speaker 10: I mean, it's possible they could, they could build together.
Speaker 3: I think that the betting.
Speaker 10: Odds have gotten reduced over these last these last few days.
Speaker 10: But see TV, as they used to say, yeah, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 10: but you know, barring that, I think we're going to
Speaker 10: see a few more moments like the one that we
Speaker 10: saw last night, not exactly frass exactly, you know, I
Speaker 10: think that we'll see a few more moments like we
Speaker 10: saw last night that is each candidate kind of doing
Speaker 10: maybe more town hall with just themselves and a news anchor,
Speaker 10: we're doing a sit down interview. I think, you know,
Speaker 10: if you look at the way that the Harris campaign
Speaker 10: has pivoted over these last few weeks, you know, they
Speaker 10: went from taking a lot of flak for not doing
Speaker 10: interviews to doing a ton of them and really the
Speaker 10: gamut of them. So it started out with these kind
Speaker 10: of friendlier sit downs appearance on late night shows. Now
Speaker 10: this Kamala Harris sitting down with this kind of very
Speaker 10: kind of adversarial network where she's had a lot of trouble,
Speaker 10: I think it's harder for the Trump campaign to kind
Speaker 10: of make the argument that she hasn't approached the media
Speaker 10: or done these kind of serious interviews.
Speaker 7: On the Bloomberg you can pull up all the different
Speaker 7: polling and stuff. It kind of is mind blowing. I know,
Speaker 7: we've all learned lessons about polls aren't always correct, So
Speaker 7: how do you read it? It looks like a very close race.
Speaker 7: I'm looking at one poll general election Kamala Harris forty
Speaker 7: nine point three, Donald Trump forty seven point seven. But
Speaker 7: there's another poll that will show the opposite. So is
Speaker 7: there a smart thought about that too.
Speaker 10: I think it's to kind of look at the poles broadly.
Speaker 10: So you bring up a few of them, you bring
Speaker 10: up these averages. I mean, we're being inundated with them,
Speaker 10: and there'll be a new Bloomberg Morning Console poll before
Speaker 10: long as well. I think what it gives us is
Speaker 10: kind of an insight into what's happening at a more
Speaker 10: granular level at a state level. I think back on
Speaker 10: the last Bloomberg Pole that we did, and we kind
Speaker 10: of saw movement at the state level in those swing states.
Speaker 10: Also highlights what the issues are that matter to voters.
Speaker 10: So I said at the top, Kamala Harris wasn't able
Speaker 10: to speak much about reproductive rights. You did talk a
Speaker 10: lot about immigration. And the way that Brett Bear set
Speaker 10: it up at the top of that interview is to say, look,
Speaker 10: you look at all of these poles that you mentioned,
Speaker 10: Economies at the top, immigration's right below it. So I
Speaker 10: think that there hasn't been a whole lot of movement
Speaker 10: in that. I think that that's kind of what voters
Speaker 10: have coluster and those are the things that matter for them.
Speaker 10: But again, as I look at the polling. I'm looking
Speaker 10: for again averages, and I'm looking for sort of what
Speaker 10: stands out in terms of topics or sort of how
Speaker 10: each candidate might be seeing some movement in terms of
Speaker 10: how voters perceive they're able to do on those particular issues.
Speaker 10: Still close, then incredibly close, and it will be and
Speaker 10: I mean just to be candidate, I mean planning for
Speaker 10: what election day, election night's going to be like. I
Speaker 10: think I think all of us are building in some flexibility.
Speaker 10: Shall we say, sort of how long it takes to
Speaker 10: get results and sort of what comes after that? And
Speaker 10: I'll just put a quick plug in for the podcast today.
Speaker 10: My colleagues lay most news based in DC is doing
Speaker 10: an episode SI on all of the litigation that we've
Speaker 10: seen since the twenty twenty election and sort of what
Speaker 10: that portends for this the fact that the courts are
Speaker 10: likely to be busy, I think, depending on on how
Speaker 10: this election turns out.
Speaker 7: Oh wait, so the lawyers win again.
Speaker 10: Winner breaking no news here, but yes, the lawyers always.
Speaker 4: All right, David, you're going to be co hosting surveials tomorrow,
Speaker 4: Yes with you? Yes, yeah, absolutely that David. He is
Speaker 4: the host of the Big take podcast for Bloomberg News. Uh,
Speaker 4: he's just following up on all things on this race
Speaker 4: here and again the presidential race that down ballot impacts.
Speaker 3: Here, you know, where does Congress go?
Speaker 4: It's gonna be a fascinating issue. And again, as David
Speaker 4: was suggesting, Carroll, I don't think we're going to know
Speaker 4: it nine or ten o'clock.
Speaker 7: Remember that last time around, like kuoha, right, and it
Speaker 7: drigged down for a little while.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think that's the new world order.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
Speaker 2: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 3: I still read the newspapers, the.
Speaker 4: Journal and the Times. I've been doing it since nineteen
Speaker 4: eighty six. I'm not going to stop. That's the way
Speaker 4: I start every day.
Speaker 7: Do you still really read yeah?
Speaker 3: Every day?
Speaker 8: That's really cool.
Speaker 3: The Journal.
Speaker 8: Do you have an app?
Speaker 7: You?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 8: You do that.
Speaker 3: I'm actually digital now.
Speaker 8: Yes, I don't have the ink on the hands off.
Speaker 4: When you get into the office at least, Mitey, what
Speaker 4: do you got for us today.
Speaker 6: Right, Financial Times.
Speaker 8: Okay, you talked about him.
Speaker 1: Okay, this was in the Financial Times. Another perk to
Speaker 1: ozembic similar products glp ones. A study shows that it
Speaker 1: cuts opioid alcohol abuse by up to half. Now, this
Speaker 1: was published in the journal Addiction. So they took an
Speaker 1: analysis of more than five hundred thousand people with a
Speaker 1: history of opioid use disorder, and it showed that more
Speaker 1: than eight thousand who were separately perscribe GLP one drugs
Speaker 1: had a forty percent lower rate of opioid overdose than
Speaker 1: those who did not. So it's kind of showing this
Speaker 1: other side. You've been hearing about these different perks that
Speaker 1: glp ones can do, but this is another side to
Speaker 1: it because you have the opioid epidemic and now this
Speaker 1: adds to it.
Speaker 6: This is so cool.
Speaker 7: It has to do with like the brain's reward system, right,
Speaker 7: and you're wondering, like it's triggering off something. I feel
Speaker 7: like every time we talk with our Madison Muller who
Speaker 7: covers it, this is the drug that is going to
Speaker 7: solve everything that ails us. It's unbelievable.
Speaker 4: It's unbelievable. I have some first hand experience with these
Speaker 4: GLP one man, they work. Yeah, I mean I've seen
Speaker 4: it too, but the nausea is unbelievable. Once they figure
Speaker 4: out to get rid of the nausea side effect, this
Speaker 4: thing is going and put in an oral thing. We
Speaker 4: just take the pill.
Speaker 3: This thing can be everybody's can be doing I think crazy.
Speaker 3: And then you add this to it. Yep, exactly, Can
Speaker 3: I explode?
Speaker 7: Right?
Speaker 3: What else?
Speaker 5: All?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 1: So do you feel like your body takes a little
Speaker 1: bit longer to bounce back? Yes, Okay, there's a scientific
Speaker 1: reason behind this. It's called biological resilience. Okay, this is
Speaker 1: what it's called. But this was in the Wall Street journals.
Speaker 1: So it basically shows different things parenting, work changes, and
Speaker 1: exercise habits, menopause, all of these stuff add up a
Speaker 1: lot of stress on your body, and as you get
Speaker 1: older it gets worse. You lose muscle masks while you age,
Speaker 1: so you have a greater risk at injury, like all
Speaker 1: of these different things. So what they say you're supposed
Speaker 1: to do is eat fewer calories to maintain weight. But
Speaker 1: they also say as you have more medications, side effects
Speaker 1: affects you more. But they pointed out something they said
Speaker 1: at two ages. This was another thing. Between forty four
Speaker 1: and sixty those two marks were like the ones that
Speaker 1: hit you the hardest.
Speaker 3: So the one that hit.
Speaker 8: Me the hardest, literally was on my birthday when I
Speaker 8: turned sixty.
Speaker 3: So that was the one sixty Yeah, and.
Speaker 8: I say this, you look really good. Yeah, but my knees.
Speaker 3: I'm not going with my doctor and he's like, dude, you're
Speaker 3: just old man. It's the knees that's not the ratest
Speaker 3: on your knees.
Speaker 4: I'm like, no, way, I have arts, but you are
Speaker 4: we arms today is what do we do?
Speaker 1: Like?
Speaker 7: Okay said, I listen to you guys all the time.
Speaker 3: You are like unbelievable. She's a beast.
Speaker 1: But it's harder to even say, like, you know how
Speaker 1: I used to wake up when you were younger after
Speaker 1: a night of drinking and it was hot and you
Speaker 1: just bounce back. They say, the reason you can't bounce
Speaker 1: back that much now is because your body's more dehydrate.
Speaker 1: It dehydrates faster as you get older.
Speaker 6: We can't win.
Speaker 7: I just I just think what the telltale sign is
Speaker 7: like as you move and you like make those noises
Speaker 7: like wake up, I do that when you.
Speaker 1: Were younger, okay, Chick fil A looking for a big
Speaker 1: plan for chicken domination in Asia.
Speaker 3: They want Chick fil A.
Speaker 6: You've never gotten it, No, I don't.
Speaker 7: I don't get the idea.
Speaker 4: Chick Matt Miller brings it in like he'll go when
Speaker 4: he was back before it down the block.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he would bring it for everybody.
Speaker 1: So but it is no, it's moving, it's moving. Plants
Speaker 1: open in Singapore late twenty twenty five. It's this ten
Speaker 1: year long, seventy five million dollars investment into Singapore. But
Speaker 1: they also what they're doing too, is there depending on
Speaker 1: application to be the island's first independent Chick fil A
Speaker 1: franchise owner. So that's a separate thing too.
Speaker 8: But there's other people.
Speaker 1: Out there's other brands. You have Shake Shack, Tim Horton,
Speaker 1: Cinnebun over in Singapore already.
Speaker 6: So Cinnebun that's another one.
Speaker 7: I mean, they smell great right in the airport, but man,
Speaker 7: once you eat them twenty minutes later.
Speaker 3: And may well say, here's the airport. Cinea.
Speaker 4: It used to be my excuse for the once in
Speaker 4: a while McDonald's or Wendy's.
Speaker 8: But you can't find the fast food anymore.
Speaker 3: These airports, they are all gone off these high ends, right,
Speaker 3: thing like that.
Speaker 4: I mean like even in Newark, you know, which is
Speaker 4: my home base, you can't find I was in ternal
Speaker 4: A yesterday.
Speaker 8: You can't find any.
Speaker 3: New Jersey void.
Speaker 8: Don't make fun of Newark Terminal.
Speaker 1: Come ont okay. So lastly, Nike, they've been on this
Speaker 1: hunt for new growth revenues, right so they think they
Speaker 1: finally found it. Bloomberg got their hands on this memo
Speaker 1: to employees and it said that they're turning to a
Speaker 1: global push for its outdoor business. It's called All Conditions Gear,
Speaker 1: so hiking gear, things like waterproof boots, these certain jackets,
Speaker 1: zip off skirts, day packs. China is going to be
Speaker 1: a focus for them, which is kind of interesting in
Speaker 1: that way.
Speaker 6: But it's just like a crowded area.
Speaker 3: I mean, you have Pad, you.
Speaker 1: Have north Face, Like is this going to work for them?
Speaker 7: I love how things are named like ACG All Conditions Gear. Yes,
Speaker 7: it's just outside things. It's hiking boots and all that
Speaker 7: kind of stuff.
Speaker 4: We get Derek Jeter and the guy who does the
Speaker 4: untucked shirts in Oh yes, interviewing. I don't know if
Speaker 4: you guys have we had the money yes, they were fabulous,
Speaker 4: and they were talking about entering this business, and I
Speaker 4: was looking. I was like, aren't there a million like
Speaker 4: great companies already doing this stuff this at leisure? It
Speaker 4: just seems like such a crowded market with like really good.
Speaker 7: Stuff, yes and yes, and that everybody's trying to go
Speaker 7: for like the best kind of feeling products. But I
Speaker 7: also do think when you throw a celebrity like Derek Jeter,
Speaker 7: like those are brands that get noticed. Whether he wears them,
Speaker 7: his friends wear them, and we shall see. But I
Speaker 7: agree with you it's a super crowded market.
Speaker 6: But more people doing the outdoor stuff.
Speaker 7: You know, what do you wear when you wear work
Speaker 7: work out?
Speaker 1: I go to like not to get personal, no like gap.
Speaker 9: I go to like old Baby.
Speaker 3: I don't spend the whole like you don't.
Speaker 6: I don't do the Lulu lemon.
Speaker 3: Alice doesn't do the little pair of leggings.
Speaker 8: Is that crazy?
Speaker 3: No comments.
Speaker 7: I also do buy when they're on sale. They don't
Speaker 7: go on sale a lot, but I do buy some things,
Speaker 7: but you can get it on.
Speaker 3: Sale very good. That is our newspaper segment with at
Speaker 3: least my tail.
Speaker 8: Do you work out?
Speaker 4: Please come on you know, you know during the pandemic,
Speaker 4: Peloton I own. We have the Peloton bike and we
Speaker 4: have the Peloton uh walking thing.
Speaker 8: Yes, the treadmill, the treadmill, the walking thing.
Speaker 3: Walking. Now, my girlfriend's all into it.
Speaker 4: She's like ten thousand rides or something crazy like that,
Speaker 4: and they all everybody the Peloton knows.
Speaker 3: Her and everything.
Speaker 4: So but during the during the lockdown, I did do
Speaker 4: it a lot. Yeah, and then I'll start a community.
Speaker 8: What happened?
Speaker 3: I started community? You know, so I walked the Penn station.
Speaker 7: You know, wait, what was that story that second story
Speaker 7: you did about it's harder between a certain age.
Speaker 9: Yes, exactly.
Speaker 3: There there you go. It all ties together, doesn't it? Exactly?
Speaker 8: All?
Speaker 5: At least?
Speaker 8: Thank you very much on the newspaper stuff.
Speaker 2: Here is the Bloomberg's Availlance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
Speaker 2: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
Speaker 2: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg terminal