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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you agree? N five dollars? This is a rattle company tackleship.

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Speaker 1: One man, you're.

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Speaker 2: Saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 1: Humans need fantasy to be my goodness, that's good.

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Speaker 3: I suppose it's the best, relentless refusing to give up.

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Speaker 4: All right, hit that horn, baby less day.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's good everybody, and welcome to the Fantasy Flex

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Speaker 2: Divisional Round Props Podcast, presented by Price Picks. I'm your host,

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Speaker 2: Chris Raybon. Joint is always by my dude, Sean Curner. Sean,

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Speaker 2: what's going on?

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Speaker 4: What's up?

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Speaker 3: Pump for this weekend's games? Pump to get to watch

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Speaker 3: some of the games with you. This Sunday, We're gonna

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Speaker 3: get to watch the Rams, Bucks and what I'm considering

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Speaker 3: the game of the year, Bill's Chief.

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Speaker 4: So can't wait.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the best weekend in sports, and I

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Speaker 2: kind of schedule the games. You know, those two Sunday

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Speaker 2: games should be I mean, it's really anyone's game and

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Speaker 2: both of those, you know, the Saturday games have the

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Speaker 2: two bigger favorites of the weekend, but those Sunday games.

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Speaker 2: I mean seeing Brady against Aaron Donald in the early game,

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Speaker 2: and uh, you know, then Bill's Chiefs, which I think

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Speaker 2: is the true toss up late.

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Speaker 1: That's gonna be awesome.

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Speaker 2: Yeah and yeah, so looking forward to it, and we'll

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Speaker 2: sweat out some of these props that we're about to

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Speaker 2: talk to. We'll obviously have the write up on Action

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Speaker 2: network dot com as well, but Sean's start us off

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Speaker 2: with your first of what I think is going to

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Speaker 2: be two quarterback crops this week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so my first ones Jimmy G to go over

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Speaker 3: two hundred and thirty and a half passing yards. I

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Speaker 3: actually got this one. It was two nineteen and a half.

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Speaker 3: I loved it then I still like it. I think

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Speaker 3: it should be closer to two forty because you know,

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Speaker 3: the Fortyniners are six point underdogs and I think this

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Speaker 3: is one of those games where I think they're going

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Speaker 3: to be forced into more of a pass heavy game.

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Speaker 4: Script.

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Speaker 3: We've seen Jimmy G you know, like in his losses

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Speaker 3: this season, his median is two hundred and ninety nine

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Speaker 3: passing yards where he his meetiing is just two hundred

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Speaker 3: and thirty two passing yards in their wins. So I

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Speaker 3: think it's pretty clear that if the fy Anders are

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Speaker 3: gonna be training this, we're gonna see Jimmy G throw

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Speaker 3: it a lot more. I mean, we've seen George Kittle's

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Speaker 3: usage go down the past couple of games because they've

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Speaker 3: been able to lean on the run. But this is

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Speaker 3: a spot where Jimmy G's probably gonna to lean on

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Speaker 3: guys like Kittle Deebo in the passing game, and IU

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Speaker 3: so love Jimmy G over two thirty and.

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Speaker 4: A half passing yards here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think the biggest issue here is uh,

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Speaker 2: you know, obviously his.

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Speaker 1: Health, but he is practicing.

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Speaker 2: I think if Kyle Shanayan had his way, Jimmy G

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Speaker 2: would be nowhere near this number. Body practicing full yeah

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Speaker 2: on Wednesday, you know. So he's kind of pulling the

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Speaker 2: Roethlisberger where he's like, yeah, everything hurts, but it looks

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Speaker 2: like he's going to be good to go. And yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think I think the Packers are going to come

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Speaker 2: out with with a pretty good game plan on their

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Speaker 2: side of the ball, so the Niners may be forced

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Speaker 2: to throw it a little more than usual. For my

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Speaker 2: quarterback problem, I'm staying in the same game. I know,

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Speaker 2: it's bad weather, which is which also may explain why

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Speaker 2: some of these numbers are a little bit low. But

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Speaker 2: I like Aaron Rodgers over two hundred and fifty five

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Speaker 2: and a half passing yards as well. San Francisco's defense

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Speaker 2: is number two in DVOA against the run, just sixteenth

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Speaker 2: against the pass, so they set up as a pass funnel.

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Speaker 2: I think Rodgers is, you know, at the line of scrimmage,

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Speaker 2: he knows that he's going to get him into some pass,

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Speaker 2: easy pass looks, you know, maybe some short passes. Is

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Speaker 2: an extension of the run game to the perimeter with

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Speaker 2: Devonte Adams and the like. He had two sixty one

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Speaker 2: against the Niners in the first matchups, not way over,

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Speaker 2: but still sixty six yards over. But you look at

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers at his twenty playoff starts, he averages two

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Speaker 2: hundred and eighty four passing yards per game and his

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Speaker 2: that's he goes up a significant margin from his regular

84
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Speaker 2: season average in the playoffs. So that's been especially true

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Speaker 2: over the last few years. He's also had this two

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Speaker 2: sixty one plus in nine to fifteen, or sixty percent

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Speaker 2: of his full game started this year, not counting the

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Speaker 2: one where he left early in the season for now

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Speaker 2: he So I like this up to two sixty and

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Speaker 2: a half here, I think he gets to at least

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Speaker 2: his two sixty one that sixty percent mark.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm with you here.

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Speaker 3: I'm projecting a culture at two seventy and yeah, it's

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Speaker 3: it's supposed to be freezing, but I don't see any

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Speaker 3: like major wins or snow or anything like that. And

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Speaker 3: we saw Josh Allen he was just fine in the

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Speaker 3: freezing tempt. I think Rogers will be just fine. And

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Speaker 3: you know, the Niners don't really have anybody that can

99
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Speaker 3: slow down DeVante Adams, so I think just he and

100
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Speaker 3: Adams will just fire off in this game.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I love the over two to fifty five

102
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Speaker 4: as well.

103
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Speaker 2: All right, where you going with your first rushing prop.

104
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Speaker 2: I think it's a I'm guessing it's a quarterback here.

105
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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a QB, but it's a rushing prop. So

106
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Speaker 3: I'm betting the rules a little bit here. But it's

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Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes over seventeen and a half rushing yards, so

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Speaker 3: he's gone over this in five of the past six games,

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Speaker 3: and we've seen him be more willing to scramble when

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Speaker 3: it comes to must win games playoffs. So this is

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Speaker 3: a game where I think, especially since the Bill's defense

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Speaker 3: leads a league and QB pressure eight, we could see

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Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes leave the pocket a bit. He's averaging eight

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Speaker 3: and a half yards per scramble win due to pressure

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Speaker 3: according to Sports Info solutions, So this is a matchup

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Speaker 3: where we could see him scramble a lot more. We

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Speaker 3: certainly saw it in their Week five matchup when he

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Speaker 3: rushed eight times for sixty one yards. And this Bill's

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Speaker 3: defense has actually allowed six straight quarterbacks to go over

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Speaker 3: the rushing prop. So this is just a smash spot

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Speaker 3: I think for Patrick Mahomes in the running game. I'm

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Speaker 3: projecting this coaster like twenty five yards, So love Patrick

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Speaker 3: Mahomes over seventeen and a half rushing yards here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and the Bill to a place some man coverage,

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Speaker 2: so that's always good for a scramble or two from

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Speaker 2: the opponent as you get the defenders backs turned in

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Speaker 2: coverage at least if there's no spy, sou and you know,

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Speaker 2: it's a lot to deal with on the Chiefs, so

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Speaker 2: probably won't be a spy.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 2: For my first running back prop, I'm going to aj

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Speaker 2: Dillon under forty two and a half rushing yards. I

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Speaker 2: already mentioned it, but San Francisco's number two in run

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Speaker 2: defense DVA.

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Speaker 1: Last week they held Ezekiel.

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Speaker 2: Elliott and Tony Pollard to a combined forty five yards

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Speaker 2: on sixteen carries. And you know, if you've kind of

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Speaker 2: watched Green Bay's telecast this year, they've talked about it,

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Speaker 2: you know, when when the commentators meet with the coaching staff,

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Speaker 2: they've been saving Aaron Jones and trying to keep them,

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Speaker 2: you know, healthy for the postseason run. And that's why

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Speaker 2: Dylan was getting so much work, even split and sometimes

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Speaker 2: getting more work in the backfield as the year went on.

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Speaker 2: But I still think Aaron Jones is going to be

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Speaker 2: the leader of this backfield, and in this particular matchup,

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Speaker 2: I think it just suits Jones better because he's more

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Speaker 2: of the dynamic pass down back. I don't think he's

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Speaker 2: just gonna slam Dylan in between the tackles. And it's

149
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Speaker 2: a top two run defense. So I like this down

150
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Speaker 2: to about forty beer AJ Dillon under forty two and

151
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Speaker 2: a half rushing yards.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I like this as well as you know,

153
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Speaker 3: certainly a pass funnel matchup and I think this correlates

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Speaker 3: nicely with your Aaron Rodgers Rogers over.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I like.

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Speaker 3: The idea of, you know, mixing this in with some

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Speaker 3: builds with your Aaron Rodgers over because I think they

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Speaker 3: do correlate nicely.

159
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Speaker 2: All Right, we're you going with your second running bat.

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Speaker 1: We got one here.

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Speaker 3: It's a running back crop, but it's a receiving yard prop.

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Speaker 3: So I'm going with Joe Mixon over sixteen and a

163
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Speaker 3: half receiving yards. So the Bengals were, you know, pretty

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Speaker 3: run heavy team weeks one through fifteen. They had the

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Speaker 3: twelfth highest run rate over that stretch, but the passer

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Speaker 3: games were the you know, the starters have played, they've

167
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Speaker 3: had the fourth highest passing rate. So I think it's

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Speaker 3: no surprise to see Joe Mixon has gone over this

169
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Speaker 3: number in three straight games. He's ran a route over

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Speaker 3: sixty percent of Joe Burrows dropbacks each of the past three.

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Speaker 3: At the point of the season, we're not holding him back,

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Speaker 3: they're not having Samaje kurryin and Chris Evans mixing in

173
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Speaker 3: as much. So I just think this is a trend

174
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Speaker 3: that I see continuing, and I'm projecting, you know, mixing

175
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Speaker 3: closer to like twenty five and a half for Seni yards,

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Speaker 3: So I like the over sixty and a half for

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Speaker 3: sen yards quite a bit here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's been over this the last few games, if

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Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken. It's just kind of one of those

180
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Speaker 2: things where early in the year he was down. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: I have it at about twenty three and a half

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Speaker 2: as well, So yeah, I'm good seven yards over this

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00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:34,240
Speaker 2: number here For my second running back prop. This one's

184
00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:36,559
Speaker 2: a little riskier, but I still think the number is

185
00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:38,880
Speaker 2: too low. It doesn't correlate as well with the others.

186
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Speaker 2: But Elijah Mitchell over seventy one and a half rushing yards.

187
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Speaker 2: He's had eighty five or more and eight out of

188
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Speaker 2: his twelve games this year, Green Bay is still twenty

189
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Speaker 2: seventh and run defense DVOA compared to fifteenth versus the past.

190
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Speaker 2: So I still think Mitchell is involved early in the

191
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Speaker 2: game and just kind of hoping for you know, a

192
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Speaker 2: big chunk runner two to get him to this number.

193
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Speaker 2: You know, despite being an underdog, I still think the

194
00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:07,920
Speaker 2: game plan is going to center around Mitchell for as

195
00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:11,040
Speaker 2: long as it can. So I would still bet this

196
00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:12,800
Speaker 2: up to seventy nine and a half. I think he

197
00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:16,840
Speaker 2: gets his eighty yards either way. This number is just

198
00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:20,439
Speaker 2: so low considering he's gotten to eighty five plus in

199
00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:23,200
Speaker 2: two thirds of his game. I know that the Niners

200
00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:25,920
Speaker 2: are underdogs here, but you know, I think Mitchell is

201
00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:27,160
Speaker 2: still going to be heavily involved.

202
00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:29,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm with you here, I'm projecting your coasture to eighty.

203
00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:33,120
Speaker 3: But I'd be careful with then this one, mixing it

204
00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,520
Speaker 3: in with like a yeah, my Jimmy G prop or something.

205
00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:38,000
Speaker 4: Just be careful of the correlations.

206
00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:40,160
Speaker 3: But certainly, I think the first half the forty and

207
00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:42,480
Speaker 3: Ers are absolutely going to still try to stick with

208
00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:45,000
Speaker 3: this run heavy game plan to keep the Packers off

209
00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:47,640
Speaker 3: the field. So I still like Elijah Mitchell to go

210
00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,480
Speaker 3: over this even if the Niners lose. Just he gets

211
00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:54,840
Speaker 3: you know, every single carry outside of Deebo Samuel. So yeah,

212
00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:57,080
Speaker 3: I do like this as well, but I just be cautious,

213
00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,280
Speaker 3: you know, Mexican with some of these other props.

214
00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:01,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you project's did a good job of

215
00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:05,040
Speaker 2: kind of you know, bumping down all the players with

216
00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:08,679
Speaker 2: the correlations, but it kind of resulted in everyone's number.

217
00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:11,400
Speaker 2: A lot of people, a lot of the Niners numbers

218
00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:13,880
Speaker 2: on that being too low on their side of the ball.

219
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Speaker 1: But yeah, it's all about the correlations.

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Speaker 2: Like I think, you know, Jimmy and Rogers with the

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Speaker 2: doing under correlate and then you know Mitchell is kind

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Speaker 2: of more of a Mitchell and the Rogers one probably

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Speaker 2: the best one too. If you're going, if you're going

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Speaker 2: with the overs, all right, where are you going for

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Speaker 2: your first receiving prop?

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Speaker 3: So this one, you know, I'm taking a little bit

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Speaker 3: of a risk here, but Allen is aard under forty

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Speaker 3: and a half receiving yards, so you know he's been

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Speaker 3: on fire. He's gone over this in four of his

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Speaker 3: past five games. Basically he stepped up when both MVS

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Speaker 3: and Randal Kobb went down. But you know, with the

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Speaker 3: Packers having the first round by they've been able able

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Speaker 3: to rest up a lot of their players are going

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Speaker 3: to be healthy coming this game. I expect MVS to

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Speaker 3: be closer to one hundred percent randall Cobb is expected

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Speaker 3: to return, so you know, Thozard's target share could take

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Speaker 3: a hit here. And like I said, the freight Nums

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Speaker 3: don't really have anybody that can shut down Davante Adams.

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Speaker 3: So if anything, you know Davante Adams could just go

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Speaker 3: off here at the expense of allenaz Ard. So despite

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Speaker 3: you know, going over this quite a bit in the

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Speaker 3: past five games, I'm going with Allenazard under forty and

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Speaker 3: a half receiving yards. I'm projecting this coaster like thirty

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Speaker 3: five and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. The only thing I would watch here is actually MVS.

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Speaker 2: It looks like he was limited on Tuesday, but then

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Speaker 2: mispractice altogether Wednesday, So I mean, we don't know if

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Speaker 2: that was just a maintenance dake because they've had so

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Speaker 2: long the rest or not. If not Dick, because then

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Speaker 2: it's a little then it does become risky because then

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Speaker 2: I think Wizard is like a full time player regardless,

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Speaker 2: So you just have to monitor what's going on here

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Speaker 2: with the MVS.

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Speaker 1: Uh Okay, for my.

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Speaker 2: First receiving prop, this might be my favorite one of

256
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Speaker 2: the weekend, but I'm going nick Us brook Akina under

257
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Speaker 2: twenty six and a half receiving yards. He's had twenty

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Speaker 2: five or fewer in nine of seventeen games.

259
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Speaker 1: And remember a lot of those.

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Speaker 2: Games came with one or both of Julio Jones and

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Speaker 2: aj Brown out, and both of those guys are healthy

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Speaker 2: Derek Henry should be back and Tennessee's favored, so I

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Speaker 2: think that means you're going to see a lot of

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Speaker 2: double tight end sets. I know Michael Prewitt is out,

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Speaker 2: but you still have Swayman Ferkser, who are the top

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Speaker 2: two tight ends anyway, So I just don't think we

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Speaker 2: see a lot of three wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: In this game.

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Speaker 2: Cincinnati's also twelfth in DVOA against non number one number

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Speaker 2: two receivers, but twenty fourth against tight end, so the

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Speaker 2: way to attack them is with heavy personnel. You know,

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Speaker 2: Westbrook Akina would see a lot of Mike Hilton and

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Speaker 2: the slot A Woozia is also a very good or

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Speaker 2: has been very good this year, So two of the

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Speaker 2: three pop potential matchups he could face at corner would

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Speaker 2: be pretty tough. And I just you know, the Titans

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Speaker 2: of the second biggest face favorite of the weekend, so

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Speaker 2: there's a good chance that they just don't need to

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Speaker 2: be you know, lining up and spread out formations and

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Speaker 2: throwing it around late in the game here to Westbrook Aquinas,

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Speaker 2: So I think I think it will still be out

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Speaker 2: there over Chester Rogers. I mean, you would hope he

283
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Speaker 2: would be out there if you're a Titans fan. But

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Speaker 2: I just don't think this is a game where he's

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Speaker 2: going to be needed much. I wouldn't be surprised if

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Speaker 2: he plays like something like fifty sixty percent of snaps

287
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Speaker 2: and only sees like one or two targets. He's averaging

288
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Speaker 2: twelve and a half yards per catch, so I think

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Speaker 2: two catches is probably is median, regardless of how you

290
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Speaker 2: slice it.

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Speaker 5: So I would bet this to twenty five and a

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Speaker 5: half here. Yeah, yeah, I like this. I like your call.

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Speaker 5: That could be using a little bit less eleven personnel.

294
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Speaker 5: I still love my Anthony Firks are under twenty five

295
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Speaker 5: and a half receiving yards either way, but I do

296
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Speaker 5: like this.

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Speaker 4: I think it correlates nicely with my final prep there too. Well.

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Speaker 2: First of all, Anthony Firks there is down to like

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Speaker 2: seventeen and a half. Yeah, we were on that, we

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Speaker 2: were on early.

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Speaker 3: I got something. Would you still take under seventeen and

302
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Speaker 3: a half? I would consider it.

303
00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:08,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's more in line like I have them swam

304
00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:12,680
Speaker 2: pretty similarly. Our boy stuck he loves the over on

305
00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:14,800
Speaker 2: swam at eleven and a half, which which you know

306
00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:16,079
Speaker 2: what I mean. It's kind of like one of those

307
00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:18,520
Speaker 2: things where now it's it's in line. I did our

308
00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:21,520
Speaker 2: interesting ferks or tidbit though I think I read this

309
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Speaker 2: on Reddit.

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00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:23,920
Speaker 1: It may have been The Athletic, but I think it

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00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:24,440
Speaker 1: was Reddit.

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00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:28,800
Speaker 2: So Ferkser gets a thousand dollars every time he pancake

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Speaker 2: blocks somebody on a chip. Okay from uh from Taylor

314
00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:35,200
Speaker 2: to want I believe it is. Uh So that's it. Yeah, so,

315
00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:38,720
Speaker 2: uh you know ferks there, he'll he'll, uh he'll he'll

316
00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:40,600
Speaker 2: be doing some blocking two even though he's a receiving

317
00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:42,520
Speaker 2: tight end. But yeah, I think I think now the

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00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:45,480
Speaker 2: best value is Westbrook Akina, just because he can simply

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Speaker 2: just not be on the field.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 2: You know, we see that in the playoff games. You

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00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,080
Speaker 2: just kind of go at your best lineup and uh

323
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Speaker 2: probably the two tight ends, especially with Henry Back.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, where are you going with h your second?

325
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Speaker 3: Uh So, like I said this, I think this correlates

326
00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,760
Speaker 3: nicely with your West prop. And it's Julio Jones over

327
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Speaker 3: thirty five and a half for siving yards. I realize

328
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Speaker 3: I'm rolling the dice on Julio here. He's had a

329
00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:10,480
Speaker 3: really you know, a difficult season. Constantly you know, getting

330
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Speaker 3: hurt in game, but you know, I think after running

331
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Speaker 3: eighty five percent of the routes run per drop back

332
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Speaker 3: in Week eighteen and having the first round by this

333
00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,320
Speaker 3: has to be the healthiest he's been all season. So

334
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Speaker 3: you know, this is this is a game where I'm

335
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Speaker 3: willing to kind of invest in Julio going over thirty

336
00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:31,000
Speaker 3: nine and a half. I think having Derrick Henry return

337
00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:33,600
Speaker 3: is going to help boost this passing offense, Dick and

338
00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:35,440
Speaker 3: you know, bank on the play action little bit more.

339
00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:37,800
Speaker 3: Just this is the time to kind of buy in

340
00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:40,840
Speaker 3: on Julio Jones. Granted, fingers crossed, he doesn't have an

341
00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:43,400
Speaker 3: end game setback. I think he'll go over this pretty easily.

342
00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:45,880
Speaker 3: I'm projecting him Coase are about forty seven and a

343
00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:49,120
Speaker 3: half receiving yards, So like, let go on Hulio over

344
00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:50,760
Speaker 3: thirty nine and a half for stveing yards.

345
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Speaker 2: Here, yea PRICETICKX needs like a Julio Jones hamstring roulette

346
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:58,600
Speaker 2: game where it's like you just parlay his quarter by quarter, Yeah,

347
00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:02,040
Speaker 2: over over these things in the game or not.

348
00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:03,720
Speaker 4: It's just yeah, I get like.

349
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:08,120
Speaker 3: I would buy some Julio insurance, right, yeah, yeah, you know,

350
00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:10,640
Speaker 3: a little bit more vague, just to ensure that I

351
00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:13,040
Speaker 3: get a full game. But that's that's part of the fun.

352
00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,280
Speaker 3: And uh, you know attacking these Julio props.

353
00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:17,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Julio insurance, Like he divide his yardage into

354
00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:22,560
Speaker 2: his snaps and multiply by whatever, you exactly, if he

355
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:23,680
Speaker 2: plays eight quarters.

356
00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:26,240
Speaker 1: He might have enough snaps. Like yeah, no, I'm over

357
00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:28,480
Speaker 1: this number two. It's you know, I think the only

358
00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:31,360
Speaker 1: reason the number is so low is because of that

359
00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:32,280
Speaker 1: injury risk.

360
00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:34,520
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, I saw that eighty five percent route

361
00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:37,480
Speaker 2: participation number in the last game, and I would think,

362
00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:38,960
Speaker 2: you know, if there's any game where they're kind of

363
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,600
Speaker 2: going to kind of unleash him, you know, it's going

364
00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:43,680
Speaker 2: to be here. So I expect them to kind of

365
00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:47,120
Speaker 2: plan for him to play most of the snaps, and

366
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:50,240
Speaker 2: if he doesn't, that will probably both of these will

367
00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:50,880
Speaker 2: probably be toast.

368
00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:54,360
Speaker 1: Julio Anda Yep, all right.

369
00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:59,480
Speaker 2: For my second, I'm going with George Kittle over forty

370
00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:03,280
Speaker 2: five and a half receiving yards. He's surprisingly you know,

371
00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:05,560
Speaker 2: because he's he was having a pretty big season, but

372
00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:09,399
Speaker 2: he's only been over this in seven of fourteen. Jimmy

373
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:13,480
Speaker 2: Garoppolo starts However, he's still averaging sixty two yards per game,

374
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:15,840
Speaker 2: so he's had some really bad games, kind of like

375
00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:18,280
Speaker 2: the one last week. But I think the difference here

376
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,320
Speaker 2: is you have a green Bay defense that likes to

377
00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,399
Speaker 2: play a lot of zone coverage. Dallas is a pretty

378
00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:27,480
Speaker 2: man heavy team, and Kittle's yards per route run increases

379
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:30,520
Speaker 2: almost a full yard against zone compared to man coverage.

380
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:32,600
Speaker 1: That's true of the whole forty nine ers team.

381
00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:34,760
Speaker 2: I thought I was kind of nervous about them last week,

382
00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:36,480
Speaker 2: but of course Dallas, you know, found a way to

383
00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:40,879
Speaker 2: give him a win there. But Greenbay is also twenty

384
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:44,320
Speaker 2: eighth in DVOA against tight ends seventh versus number one

385
00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,880
Speaker 2: wide receivers and could get Jiro Alexander back seventh versus

386
00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:51,399
Speaker 2: number two wide receivers, third versus other receivers.

387
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,880
Speaker 1: So it's kind of a tight end funnel matchup.

388
00:17:54,480 --> 00:18:00,800
Speaker 2: The coverage scheme suits Kittle and he's averaging two points.

389
00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,640
Speaker 2: He led the all tight ends during the regular season

390
00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:06,159
Speaker 2: with two point sixty seven yards per route versus zone,

391
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:08,200
Speaker 2: and he's still at two point five to four even

392
00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,800
Speaker 2: after that Dallas game with when you only had the

393
00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:12,240
Speaker 2: one cat.

394
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:15,280
Speaker 1: So like Kittle here to go over forty five and

395
00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:18,119
Speaker 1: a half. I bet this up to about fifty.

396
00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:19,240
Speaker 4: Yeah.

397
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,199
Speaker 3: Like I said, this correlates perfectly with my Jimmy g

398
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,960
Speaker 3: Over prop. This is just a matchup where they might

399
00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:27,919
Speaker 3: get forced in a pass heavy game scrip. They've been

400
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,800
Speaker 3: able to use George Kittlemore as a blocker the past

401
00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 3: two games, but that you know, he's probably gonna have

402
00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,040
Speaker 3: to be needed in the passing game here, So love

403
00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:36,000
Speaker 3: love the over as well.

404
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:38,960
Speaker 2: Next up here on the Fantasy Flex is a segment

405
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:42,040
Speaker 2: we call Elite Entries, where Sean and I dive into

406
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 2: the Prize Picks app and compare our player projections to

407
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:48,639
Speaker 2: the props to build some entries. Sean, what's your first

408
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,040
Speaker 2: Prize Picks Elite entry for today?

409
00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,359
Speaker 3: So I go with Joe Mixon over sixteen and a

410
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:58,359
Speaker 3: half receiving yards. The Bengals have become a really pass

411
00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:00,760
Speaker 3: heavy team of late. They have the fourth high pass

412
00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 3: right over the past three games, they've been using Joe

413
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:06,040
Speaker 3: Mixon in the passing game a lot more that. It's

414
00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,440
Speaker 3: three straight games now where he's ran around on over

415
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:10,960
Speaker 3: sixty percent of Joe Burrow's drop back. So I don't

416
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,000
Speaker 3: think they're holding back Joe mix ran a. Now they're

417
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,960
Speaker 3: in the playoffs, it's must win time, so I don't

418
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,119
Speaker 3: think it's any surprise. We've seen him go over this

419
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,840
Speaker 3: number in three straight games, and I think we see

420
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:22,280
Speaker 3: it continue in the playoffs.

421
00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 4: Here.

422
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 3: I'm projecting at this you know, closer to twenty four

423
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:28,480
Speaker 3: to twenty five, So love the over Joe Mixon to

424
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:30,360
Speaker 3: go over sixty and a half for Senior yard Tier.

425
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,360
Speaker 2: My first prize pick Weed entry for today, I'm going

426
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:39,240
Speaker 2: Nick Westbrook Akina under twenty six and a half receiving yards.

427
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 1: He's been under this in ten of seventeen games this.

428
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:46,879
Speaker 2: Year, and that's a lot with AJ Brown or Julio

429
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,879
Speaker 2: Jones out of the lineup. In this matchup, I simply

430
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:51,440
Speaker 2: think you're going to see a lot of two tight

431
00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:55,960
Speaker 2: ends sets AJ Brown Julio Jones healthy plan almost every snap,

432
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 2: and then you're just going to be running it with

433
00:19:57,880 --> 00:20:01,639
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry and the The Titans are favorite, so you

434
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,119
Speaker 2: don't expect them to be throwing from behind using a

435
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 2: lot of three wide receiver.

436
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:07,880
Speaker 1: Personnel in this game.

437
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,639
Speaker 2: So going Westbrook Akina under twenty six and a half

438
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:14,440
Speaker 2: receiving yards. Sean, where are you going with your second

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00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:17,240
Speaker 2: Price Picks Elite entry for.

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00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:21,159
Speaker 3: Today, So I'm going Patch Mahomes over seventeen and a

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00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,679
Speaker 3: half rushing yards. He's gone over this in five of

442
00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 3: the past six games we've seen him in the past.

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00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:29,399
Speaker 3: He's much more willing to scramble in must win games,

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00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 3: playoff games, so I think that you know that trend's

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00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,480
Speaker 3: going to continue here. And the Bills defense leads the

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00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 3: league in QB pressures. We've seen Mahomes average eight and

447
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 3: a half yards per scramble due to pressure, so I

448
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,439
Speaker 3: think this just sets up as a good matchup for

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00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,119
Speaker 3: Holmes in the running game. And no surprise, you know,

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00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,320
Speaker 3: we saw him run for sixty one yards in their

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00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 3: Week five matchup. And the Bills defense, they've they've allowed

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00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:54,239
Speaker 3: six straight quarterbacks to go over their rushing prop so

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00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:55,160
Speaker 3: just I love.

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Speaker 4: Multiple angles on this.

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Speaker 3: I'm projecting Mahomes culture to twenty five rushing yards here,

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00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,400
Speaker 3: So love patrim Holmes overventeen and a half rushing yards

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00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:03,400
Speaker 3: against the Bills.

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Speaker 2: And I'm going George Kittle over forty five and a

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00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,680
Speaker 2: half receiving yards against the Packers for my second Prize

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00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 2: pix Lead entry for today.

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00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 1: Kittle was not very.

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00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:17,639
Speaker 2: Involved against the Cowboys, but they're a man coverage team.

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00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 2: Kittle was the tight end leader in yards per route

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00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 2: against zone, but his average drop nearly a full yard

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00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 2: per route against man coverage. So now he's facing the Packers,

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00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 2: which is a scheme that is more conducive to him

467
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 2: going off. The Packers are also twenty eighth and DVOA

468
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 2: against tight ends, but their top seven against wide receivers,

469
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:40,439
Speaker 2: so this is kind of a pass funnel matchup to

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00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 2: the tight end as well here. So I think, you know,

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00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 2: after a quiet week, I think George Kittle gets back

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00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 2: to it and goes over forty five and a half

473
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 2: receiving yards against the Green Bay Packers. That is going

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00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,440
Speaker 2: to do it for our prize picks a Leit entry

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00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 2: for today. As a recap, Shawn, He's going with Joe

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00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 2: Mixon over sixteen and a half res receiving yards and

477
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:04,360
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes over seventeen and a half rushing yards. I'm

478
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,719
Speaker 2: going Nick Westprobkina under twenty six and a half receiving

479
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 2: yards and George Kittle over forty five and a half

480
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 2: receiving yards. As a reminder, price pix markets do move,

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00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 2: so you want to get on it quickly in order

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00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 2: to lock in the best numbers. If you have not

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00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 2: created a Prize Picks account yet, check out the link

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00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:24,400
Speaker 2: in our episode description. They will match your first deposit

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00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 2: up to one hundred dollars. Or you can visit pricepicks

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Speaker 2: dot com and use.

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00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 1: The promo code action ten.

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00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 2: That's actio n one zerom Okay, now back to the show.

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Speaker 1: All right, that is going to do it for our

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00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 1: props again.

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00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:43,640
Speaker 2: You guys can check out actionnetwork dot com for all

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00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:48,919
Speaker 2: of our content in terms of props and fantasy and betting,

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00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 2: and Fantasy Labs dot com for our DFS content, tools

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00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 2: and models. You can find Sean on Twitter at the

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00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 2: Underscore Odds Maker, you can find me at Chris Raybon,

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00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 2: and you can find us at those same handles in

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00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 2: the free award winning Action Network app.

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00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 1: Be sure to leave us

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00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 2: A five star rating air review on Apple or Spotify,

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00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 2: and we'll be back next week with our main slate

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00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 2: show on Wednesday, Let's cut this money