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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that Action moms.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go, throwing.

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Speaker 2: Into spec I'm saying it to cash stop.

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Speaker 1: Most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, It's just the ultimate kaba. You want to

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Speaker 1: pass and we are come away? What is up everybody? Nowadays?

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Speaker 1: And welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel.

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Speaker 1: I am your host, Chris Raybond. This is your NFL

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Speaker 1: Week sixteen betting preview where we will talk about our

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Speaker 1: favorite totals, Heezers, underdogs, and of course crack open our

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Speaker 1: weekly Sunday six pack of Against the Spread beats with

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Speaker 1: the help of my co host, the Prime Minister of

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Speaker 1: Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck. What's going on? Happy holidays, man.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Happy Holadays to you and to everyone else out there.

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Speaker 2: It was a small winning week for me. I wish

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Speaker 2: it could have been bigger, man. I mean the this

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Speaker 2: is what happens the NFL in one week. You just

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Speaker 2: have to roll with the bunches sometimes and this some

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Speaker 2: special teams got me this week, which was shocking. I

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Speaker 2: mean I had watched Justin Tucker Missfield goals live to

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Speaker 2: cost me a teaser there. I watched the Bucks who

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Speaker 2: hold the just completely dominate the game statistically. Obviously they

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Speaker 2: fumbled like four times, but they try a fourth and

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Speaker 2: one fake punt with Geo Bernard. I have the Jets,

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Speaker 2: I mean, unfortunately Mike White got ruled out after record

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Speaker 2: of the podcast and by the way that line closed,

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Speaker 2: Jets minus two and a half mine plus one. I

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Speaker 2: should have bought out, but at least the Colts hung

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Speaker 2: on to come like that. I was in a bar

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Speaker 2: in Cleveland. They pushed the game back, NFL game back.

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Speaker 2: We had tickets, you know, we were waiting to go

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Speaker 2: down to the game. We were at a bar right

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Speaker 2: right outside the stadium, and they pushed the game back

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Speaker 2: before they a little bit and then eventually they started it.

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Speaker 2: But I was going to lose it because my biggest

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Speaker 2: loss of all time, my entire life betting twenty plus

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Speaker 2: years was Matt Ryan plus four and a half up

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Speaker 2: twenty eight to three in overtime, loses a coin toss,

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Speaker 2: the team goes down and scores right away. So I

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Speaker 2: was distraught. Thirty three nothing. No one's ever born a

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Speaker 2: thirty three point lead NFL history, and then it goes

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Speaker 2: up too overtime, and I say, I was not going

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Speaker 2: a bet a million dollars that the Viking's gonna win

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Speaker 2: this coin toss. And luckily they did not score a

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Speaker 2: touchdown on the opening drive because and then I'm glad

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Speaker 2: that that got home for your six pack pick, because

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Speaker 2: that was tortures.

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Speaker 1: Bruh like, and you know when you just know, like

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Speaker 1: when they went up thirty three, and I'm like, nah, nothing,

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Speaker 1: nothing in the NFL is this easy, nothing, and betting

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Speaker 1: is this easy, like, And the announcers kind of felt

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Speaker 1: felt it too, like they never really gave up on

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Speaker 1: the game. They were always like, you know, if the

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Speaker 1: Viking could just do this, they can get it, they

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Speaker 1: can get back into game. It was thirty three nothing,

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Speaker 1: I'm like, man.

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Speaker 2: And the Vikings find a way to win another one

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Speaker 2: possession game. But this is your December NFL weekend. There's

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Speaker 2: weather all over the place, which is why you're seeing

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Speaker 2: very low totals. Yeah, it's gonna be cold and windy

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Speaker 2: in a lot of places.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. And while we're on the subject, just some general trends.

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Speaker 1: For whatever reason, I'm not sure if it's just noise

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Speaker 1: or what. But Saturday road teams doesn't matter if you're

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Speaker 1: a favorite or a underdog. Just teams on road teams

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Speaker 1: that play on Saturdays against the spreads since two thousand

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Speaker 1: and four are fifty five and thirty two sixty three percent.

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Speaker 1: And you mentioned the temperatures. When you have freezing or

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Speaker 1: below temperatures, we'll get into the wind and stuff, but

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Speaker 1: just straight up freezing or lower. The under is forty

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Speaker 1: nine and thirty three sixty percent since twenty fifteen. But

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Speaker 1: a lot of these are tricky because I think what

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Speaker 1: happens is the market, you know, when they see a

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Speaker 1: game like that can have weather, I feel like they

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Speaker 1: end up over betting the under, soell a lot of

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Speaker 1: values lost and we ended up seeing that overhit in

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Speaker 1: that Miami game, and then we got to snow at

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Speaker 1: the end, So you gotta be careful with those with

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Speaker 1: those things.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and then not all wind is created equal, like

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Speaker 2: you know, it's just because it's windy, like ten to twelve.

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Speaker 2: Like I think threshold is like fifteen for me. That's

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Speaker 2: when it really starts to matter. Once you get a

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Speaker 2: fifteen and above, then you really start to see the

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Speaker 2: effects and then like once you're sustained and the gusts

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Speaker 2: in the forties, that's when it's like almost impossible to

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Speaker 2: throw the ball consistently and kickfield goals as well.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's jump into the Thursday night football.

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Speaker 3: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 2: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars fresh off their win which you were on

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Speaker 1: against the Dallas Cowboys, now they go to face the Jets. Here.

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Speaker 1: The line has been jumping up and down. It's inside

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Speaker 1: of three, so you can expect that it's not as

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Speaker 1: crazy as it seems. But the Jets, as we record this,

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Speaker 1: are one and a half point favorites. The total is

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Speaker 1: thirty seven and a half, so not expecting great weather here. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence looks like he's gonna go, just what he

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Speaker 1: was on the injury report. Mike White looks like he's

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Speaker 1: not gonna go. It's gonna be Zach Wilson again. What

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Speaker 1: are you thoughts on this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it doesn't look like Mike White's going. So I

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Speaker 2: would make the Jets, you know, I have these teams

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Speaker 2: pretty close to eve and now JAG's have been trending up,

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Speaker 2: and then if you give the Jets, you know, home

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Speaker 2: field advantage short week, I mean close to about a

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Speaker 2: point and a half here, But then I have a

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Speaker 2: couple point downgrade from White to Zach Wilson, who was

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Speaker 2: just terrible last week. I mean, he completed a couple

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Speaker 2: of deep balls, but they were underthrown and it was

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Speaker 2: just like just throwing up as receiver made plays. Some

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Speaker 2: of the throws he missed underneath, some of the throws

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Speaker 2: on he just like threw it up in the air,

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Speaker 2: an awful pick and basically caused him the game himself

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Speaker 2: last night against Pumpkin Golf, who didn't play well. I

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Speaker 2: mean the Lion said, I don't know ten off seven

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Speaker 2: to ten offensive points total, So yeah, I may I

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Speaker 2: would make jecks of a very small favorite here. So

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Speaker 2: I do show a little bit of value the Giants,

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Speaker 2: but it's not enough to get involved. I may end

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Speaker 2: up teasing them. I think that's I think this is

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Speaker 2: a good teaser spot. If you know, now that the

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Speaker 2: light has gone up to minus one and a half

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Speaker 2: on the Jets, you have a really low total here.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be cold out and it's just a really

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Speaker 2: fascinating matchup with you have Zach Wilson, who's horrendous against

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Speaker 2: a bad secondary, and then you have Trevor Lawrence who's

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Speaker 2: playing really well against a good secondary. So it's kind

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Speaker 2: of like strength on strength and weakness on weakness. What's

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Speaker 2: going to ultimately be the difference. We'll see if the

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Speaker 2: Jags can back up a big win at home on

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Speaker 2: the road. Last time we saw them do they beat

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Speaker 2: the Ravens at home and come back fashion, and then

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Speaker 2: they went I think to Detroit and laid a complete egg.

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Speaker 2: Young team and experienced team. A little inconsistent, but this

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Speaker 2: game is pretty big for both teams. The Jags now

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Speaker 2: I think are going to win the division. I have

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Speaker 2: a plus seven fifty and the Titans under nine and

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Speaker 2: a half. It looks like might hit as well. I

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Speaker 2: think the Jags are now favored to win the division,

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Speaker 2: and if they win this game, they're in really good shape.

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Speaker 2: So I think both teams might play a little tight.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be cold early, big game, so you know,

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Speaker 2: I don't know if I could go under this low

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Speaker 2: of a number. I don't show too much value there.

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Speaker 2: But now that the line is ticked up with Zach Wilson.

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Speaker 2: I don't understand why, just like last week, I don't

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Speaker 2: the Jets took you know, the line of three points

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Speaker 2: after Zach Wilson, you know, initially moved back and then

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Speaker 2: it kept moving. But now that you can tease the

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Speaker 2: Jags over a touchdown with a total this low, I

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Speaker 2: think that you have to look at the Jags here,

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Speaker 2: But it's ultimately to me this is a coin flip game.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned that Teryl Lawrence kind of going on a

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Speaker 1: road and struggling. They did have that win against the Titans, obviously,

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Speaker 1: but generally this is where the inconsistency kind of shows

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Speaker 1: up more. He is just four and eleven against the

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Speaker 1: spread on the road, two and five this year. So

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Speaker 1: for whatever reason, these kind of spots have been the

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Speaker 1: ones where they haven't covered and usually he doesn't play

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Speaker 1: as well. So take that for what you may. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I got nothing on this one. You know, I think

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Speaker 1: the Jags are probably the right side. But again, just

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Speaker 1: trel Lawrence seems to struggle on the road and it

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Speaker 1: is a good defense, so it can kind of come

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Speaker 1: down to something silly, like another one of these special

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Speaker 1: team player Zack Wilson doing something like how stupid is

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Speaker 1: what Zack Wilson's gonna do? Is it gonna cost them

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Speaker 1: the game or is it just gonna cost them a drive?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's a lot of great teaser pieces

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Speaker 2: this week. We'll get to them in our teaser section.

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Speaker 2: So if you're looking for action and the reason that

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Speaker 2: you know, there's a lot of dogs around you know, yeah,

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Speaker 2: between one and three with really low totals where points

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Speaker 2: are really going to be at a premium. So if

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Speaker 2: you are looking for some action, I think the best

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Speaker 2: bet here we'll have some prop content out on Action

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Speaker 2: Network app, but is to tease the Jags here up

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Speaker 2: over a touchdown and I will get into potential pieces

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Speaker 2: that you could pair them with and our teaser section

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Speaker 2: later on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and to your point about the under, I am

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Speaker 1: throwing a bunch of trends on the under for what

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Speaker 1: it's worth. You know, Thursday night football unders with a

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Speaker 1: total of forty or less are twenty one and seven

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Speaker 1: over the last couple of decades. Seventy five prime time

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Speaker 1: unders that moved down at least one and a half

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Speaker 1: points are seventy seven and forty eight, sixty two percent

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Speaker 1: since twenty fifteen. A lot of things point to the

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Speaker 1: under as well, but yeah, it's such a low total

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Speaker 1: that I agree. I think if you take the Jags

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Speaker 1: plus up to plus seven and a half, they should

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Speaker 1: be able to keep this one close, even if they

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Speaker 1: don't end up getting a win. All right, let's jump

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Speaker 1: into the week sixteen Sunday six pack Thursday for action.

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Speaker 1: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack. All right, another

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Speaker 1: another suite, so you got more work to do again,

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Speaker 1: sixty to forty six, down by a couple of times.

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Speaker 1: All you need is one good week. But I am

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Speaker 1: also first this week, so to start us off with

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Speaker 1: the first pick of the week sixteen six pack presented

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Speaker 1: by Fan Duel, I'm going with the green Bay Hackers

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Speaker 1: plus three and a half at the Miami Dolphins, and

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Speaker 1: I think green Bay can have some success here on offense.

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Speaker 1: You know, Miami to play man covers. They like the

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Speaker 1: blitz and Aaron Rodgers he still destroys the blitz. Is

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Speaker 1: passer rating jumps from eighty nine when not blitz to

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Speaker 1: one o three when blitzed. The Packers are also they've

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Speaker 1: been a lot better more efficient against man coverage this season.

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Speaker 1: Eight point three yards per targeted pass against man about

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Speaker 1: a yard low over a yard lower against zone coverage.

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Speaker 1: And Rogers has raided his number three against the blitz,

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Speaker 1: so maybe he deters them from blitzing, but they pretty

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Speaker 1: much blitzed everybody. And I think green Bay, you know,

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Speaker 1: with this healthy group of receivers, now, I think they're

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Speaker 1: going to be a little bit better than or a

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Speaker 1: lot better, I should say, than that offense that we

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Speaker 1: saw earlier in the year that was just kind of

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Speaker 1: really a tough watch, to be completely honest. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, they just couldn't really do much. Everything was

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Speaker 1: kind of a few yards at a time, and if

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Speaker 1: they gotten third down, it was just over. But now

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Speaker 1: with Watson here, he can beat man coverage. So if

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Speaker 1: you look at his numbers in yards per route versus

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Speaker 1: man coverage, Christian Watson four point three second in the

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Speaker 1: NFL among ninety six qualified receivers. Allen Zard's also top

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Speaker 1: twenty five as well. So now Green Bay actually has

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Speaker 1: some receivers that can be Man. Dobbs is better against

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Speaker 1: zone and so it is Randall Cobbs, So they got

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Speaker 1: some options for for Aaron Rodgers, I don't think Miami

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Speaker 1: defense is very good. They're a little bit better with

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Speaker 1: with Bradley Chubb, but still not not a strong Miami

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Speaker 1: defense here. And then on the other side, I still

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Speaker 1: think that Tua is not going to kind of recapture

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Speaker 1: that early season form. I know he got a one

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Speaker 1: touchdown against Buffalo, but you look at his last four games,

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Speaker 1: the completion percentage has been down. Defenses is starting to

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Speaker 1: figure out, you know, where the line guys up and

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Speaker 1: kind of deter some of those throws over the middle. Packers.

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Speaker 1: They would love to play zone, sometimes to a fault.

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Speaker 1: So I think though they'll at least have the formula,

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Speaker 1: we'll see how successful they are. But I think they

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Speaker 1: have the ingredients on defense to make a few stops here,

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Speaker 1: and I like their offense to make to score some

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Speaker 1: points as well. So like both sides of the matchup

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Speaker 1: for Green Bay here, they're going to be motivated. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: both teams are gonna be motivated here, And I think

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Speaker 1: Miami's been a little lot luckier than than Green Bay

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Speaker 1: this season. If you check our Action Network luck rankings,

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Speaker 1: Miami is the ninth most lucky team, green Bays twenty seventh.

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Speaker 1: Then when you have a differential of sixteen or more,

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Speaker 1: which that is it's sixteen or more differential thirty three

256
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Speaker 1: and twenty sixty two percent against the spread since we

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Speaker 1: started tracking it in week three. You also have you know,

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Speaker 1: I like to look at just wait in the year,

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Speaker 1: just see what's like week to week, what kind of wins,

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Speaker 1: how the markets pricing things, And it turns out that

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Speaker 1: week sixteen road Dog, and it's they're facing a home

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Speaker 1: favorites that has six to eight wins at this time

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Speaker 1: of the year. So right around five hundred, the road

264
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Speaker 1: dog is forty six twenty four and three sixty six

265
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Speaker 1: percent against the spread and Aaron Rodgers eleven and four

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Speaker 1: against the spread as an underdog in the Matt Lafleur era.

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Speaker 1: Before that, he was actually fifteen seventeen and one going

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Speaker 1: back with McCarthy, Philbin and whatnot. So like the Packers here,

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Speaker 1: haven't bet on them too much this year, but I

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Speaker 1: think this is a good spot for them. I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be surprised if they ended winning the game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, This would have been one of my

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Speaker 2: picks if you didn't take it first. I think twelve

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Speaker 2: and one in Packers games. We've had a good read

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Speaker 2: on them on them this week. This this game's in

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Speaker 2: Miami in December, but it's not gonna feel like it's

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Speaker 2: in Miami in December. It's gonna be cold, just like everywhere,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna be windy, which I think favors Rogers and

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Speaker 2: this offense. And speaking of luck, I was saying, oh,

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Speaker 2: ye're how they were getting very unlucky on like four

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Speaker 2: downs in the red zone, but they were still able

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Speaker 2: to move the ball consistently on the ground through the

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Speaker 2: short passing attack, And how they're healthier wide receiver. I

284
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Speaker 2: think Boctiari has a good shot of playing this week

285
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Speaker 2: as well. And then on the defensive side of the ball,

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Speaker 2: they've had some injuries, but they moved some guys around,

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Speaker 2: specially in the secondary. I like the way that they've

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Speaker 2: been playing recently, and I think they've made some nice

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Speaker 2: adjustments there. And their defense is still vulnerable against the run,

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Speaker 2: but that's okay against Miami. If Miami's going to come

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Speaker 2: out here and run the ball a bunch, I think

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Speaker 2: you would prefer that. But most importantly, Green Bay very

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Speaker 2: good at defending the middle of the field with their

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Speaker 2: specific defensive schemes, and that's what you need to do

295
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Speaker 2: right now against this Dolphins offense. So yeah, I think

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Speaker 2: that these two teams are not that far off. The

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Speaker 2: Miami defense is terrible. I mean, just look at what

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Speaker 2: they've done all season long. And I said, this go

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Speaker 2: back to last year, and that's when they had a

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Speaker 2: much healthier secondary. Miami played I don't know, eight or

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Speaker 2: nine backup quarterbacks last year. Anybody with a pulse this

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Speaker 2: season or last seasons gets to thirty points against them,

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Speaker 2: I mean right around there, twenty eight to thirty points.

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Speaker 2: So I know it's going to be cold, and I

305
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Speaker 2: don't mind that. I actually don't mind this over again.

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Speaker 2: You know, I think that there's lad should be a

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Speaker 2: field goaler below that the Packers might take this, and

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Speaker 2: they're going to be right there in the hunt to

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Speaker 2: ste somehow steel a playoff spot in the NFC if

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Speaker 2: someone slips up and they could potentially get to a

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Speaker 2: game where it's maybe playing your win and you're in

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Speaker 2: against Detroit at home in week eighteen.

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Speaker 1: I was just going to say, you know, Dolwood now,

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Speaker 1: but green Bay number two in offensive DVOA since week ten.

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Speaker 2: Yep, all right. For my first pick and the second

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Speaker 2: overall of the Week sixteen six pack. I'm going with

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Speaker 2: the New England Patriots plus three and a half against

318
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Speaker 2: the Cincinnati Bengals, who seemingly cover every week. I think

319
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Speaker 2: that they're eighteen and four against the spread of the

320
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Speaker 2: past twenty two games, including the postseason. They're on some

321
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Speaker 2: crazy streak right now. But just like last week, you know,

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Speaker 2: I mean I played Tampa plus three and a half.

323
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Speaker 2: I think it close closer to three. Would play that again? Now,

324
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Speaker 2: you know there was four turnovers, a fake punt, you know,

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Speaker 2: everything just kind of went to ship. But you know

326
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Speaker 2: Tampa had four hundred yards since he had two hundred

327
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Speaker 2: and thirty yards for play, five point seven to three

328
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Speaker 2: point eight three point eight yards per play for the Bengals.

329
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Speaker 2: And why was that? Well, there's some injuries that the

330
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Speaker 2: Bengals have. You know, I will t Higgins played. I

331
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Speaker 2: don't know if he's fully healthy, but most importlands on

332
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Speaker 2: the defensive side of the ball. Now you lose Sam Hubbard,

333
00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:25,440
Speaker 2: We'll see if Trey Henderson will play with his broken wrist.

334
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Speaker 2: You have injuries in the secondary, you know, Eden today

335
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Speaker 2: I'm trying to think who popped up with a Eli

336
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Speaker 2: Apple popped up with an ankle issue. Today, you know,

337
00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:39,399
Speaker 2: Mike Hilton's dealing with an issue in the slot. You

338
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,320
Speaker 2: already lost a Woozier. Even Cam Taylor Bread, who I

339
00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:44,240
Speaker 2: think is going to play the rookie, He's been playing

340
00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 2: pretty good. He's bagged up. But you know, the Bengals

341
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Speaker 2: now are laying three and a half on the road

342
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Speaker 2: a week after they beat Tampa. But I downgraded him

343
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Speaker 2: a bit. At Tampa beat themselves, Bengals averaged three point

344
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Speaker 2: eight yards playing two hundred and thirty total yards of offense,

345
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Speaker 2: even with Winfield geting hurt in a couple other Bucks

346
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Speaker 2: getting hurt in that game. Yeah, I didn't upgrade them,

347
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Speaker 2: and I have the Pats is a better team than

348
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Speaker 2: the Pucks right now. And now they're going on their

349
00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,159
Speaker 2: second straight road game in the cold. There's going to

350
00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:11,600
Speaker 2: be wind. I think that favors New England if you

351
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:14,719
Speaker 2: want to neutralize the passing attacks a little bit. Obviously,

352
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Speaker 2: that's going to help the Patriots in this particular matchup.

353
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Speaker 2: And I think with some of the injuries, we'll see

354
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Speaker 2: if Hayden Hurst goes that Cincinnati is dealing with. I

355
00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:28,720
Speaker 2: think that this line is too high. This just like

356
00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:30,639
Speaker 2: last week, I think this line should be under three,

357
00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:35,400
Speaker 2: so I'll gladly take the hook in what I think

358
00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:39,400
Speaker 2: should be a lower scoring game. And this Bengals team

359
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:42,040
Speaker 2: has been a covering machine on a huge winning streak.

360
00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:44,719
Speaker 2: By the time this game starts, it might be have

361
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:46,760
Speaker 2: clinched the playoffs spot. They had the Bills on deck

362
00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,600
Speaker 2: second straight road game, but they've been getting fortunate and

363
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:51,119
Speaker 2: a lot of these games, and I think that this

364
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:52,920
Speaker 2: is just like last week. I think that right now

365
00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,480
Speaker 2: they're at their peak of the market. Everyone wants to

366
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,000
Speaker 2: bet the Bengals, and that's why I think that we're

367
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,320
Speaker 2: getting the hook here over the key number. I would

368
00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:01,119
Speaker 2: bet this up to plus three and a half minus

369
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 2: one twenty. Bengals are over raalued by a bit right now,

370
00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,200
Speaker 2: still legit Super Bowl threats, but dealing with some injuries

371
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,480
Speaker 2: and hopefully at the end of the game ja Kobe

372
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,480
Speaker 2: Myers doesn't throw the ball backwards if it's.

373
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Speaker 1: Tied, Like, honestly, you're braver than me. I don't want

374
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Speaker 1: to bet the Bengals, but I don't want to bet

375
00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:21,560
Speaker 1: against the Bengals right now. Just my only loss betting

376
00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:25,120
Speaker 1: the Panthers against the Bengals. So I'm kind of show

377
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:31,040
Speaker 1: shocked up. That's too but yeah, I mean you and

378
00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:32,720
Speaker 1: all work, Like, what do you think of Mac Jones?

379
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:36,639
Speaker 1: Like I was looking at his numbers from last week

380
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:40,200
Speaker 1: and against a terrible Raiders secondary he.

381
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,800
Speaker 2: Completed he was awful.

382
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:47,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, but like to wide receivers because like listen, like

383
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,480
Speaker 1: they don't use their tight ends and they're talking about

384
00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:53,280
Speaker 1: they can't every pass can't go to a running back,

385
00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:56,440
Speaker 1: but you know, wide receivers. He went four of seventeen

386
00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:01,560
Speaker 1: seventy one yards, like I like against the Raiders, bro

387
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 1: like's I don't know what's going on with him and

388
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:08,480
Speaker 1: Patricia and his offense, but it just completely lost it.

389
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Speaker 1: So I got that does kind of worry me against

390
00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:12,960
Speaker 1: the Patriots because like sometimes they look competent against that

391
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:16,879
Speaker 1: Minnesota team, they looked competent throwing the football, but they

392
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:20,200
Speaker 1: still they also still lost that game by touchdown. So yeah,

393
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Speaker 1: I don't really have a good feel for the Patriots,

394
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:24,120
Speaker 1: to be honest, I never know what I'm gonna get

395
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:25,120
Speaker 1: from from Mac.

396
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Speaker 2: It's a little bit scary, but that's usually a good

397
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,680
Speaker 2: sign in the NFL. And hopefully Patrician does at vomit

398
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 2: all over the field.

399
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:37,280
Speaker 1: Right with uh sop he does, we might have to

400
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 1: go with our coaches, Pep talk to him now, because

401
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 1: we got we get it. We got it with the

402
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,359
Speaker 1: Saturday last week, and I mean he.

403
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:46,880
Speaker 2: Covered Yeah, the Pep talks on a roll.

404
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 1: For my second pick and the third overall of the

405
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:57,719
Speaker 1: week sixteen six pack, presented by FanDuel, I'm going with

406
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:04,639
Speaker 1: the New York Giants plus four and a half at

407
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:10,640
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings. And well, obviously you've talked about this

408
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,880
Speaker 1: the Vikings. This is the time of the year where

409
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 1: you want to fade them. They've just started out incredibly lucky.

410
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 1: But I really like the matchup for the Giants in

411
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 1: this game. So we know that the Giants on defense,

412
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:26,880
Speaker 1: what are they gonna do? They're gonna bwitz even more

413
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:28,919
Speaker 1: than the Lions do, even more than the Dolphins. They

414
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 1: are number one in the league in blitz rate under

415
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:37,120
Speaker 1: wing Martindale, former Ravens defensive coordinator. So because they're first

416
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 1: in witz rate, they're also first in man coverage rate. Well,

417
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:44,160
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins has not been good against the woitz. He's

418
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 1: not been good against man coverage, and Giants are up

419
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:48,880
Speaker 1: to fourth and pressure rate. I mean, I think it's

420
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,360
Speaker 1: probably all Cavon Thibodeau in the span of like three

421
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 1: plays last week. But they're you know, they're first in

422
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 1: blitz rate, but they're also fourth and pressure rates, so uh,

423
00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 1: you know, that's that's a little better than when you're

424
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:02,400
Speaker 1: you know, kind of middle of the packet in pressure

425
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 1: even though you're blitzing so much. So, Giants defense kind

426
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 1: of quietly improve in there with with with the some

427
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 1: of the young guys playing well, and Kirk Cousins passer

428
00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 1: rating drops from ninety eight when he's in a queen

429
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 1: pocket to seventy nine when pressured. His rating his pffth

430
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,160
Speaker 1: grade excuse me against the blitz is a fifty three,

431
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 1: that is thirty six of thirty nine qualified quarterbacks. He's

432
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 1: really at the everyone else in the Cousins range has

433
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 1: already been benched or getting start the year as a starter,

434
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 1: was already a backup. When he's blitzed, his completion rate

435
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 1: drops from sixty eight to fifty six, yard per attempt

436
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,639
Speaker 1: seven and a half to five and a half, and

437
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 1: his passer rating goes from ninety six to eighty. And

438
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 1: you know that that yards per attempt five point six

439
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 1: yards per attempt when blitzed, second lowest after Carson Wentz

440
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:57,679
Speaker 1: this year. The completion rate is fourth lowest, so and

441
00:22:57,880 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 1: he could it could be even worse because he actually

442
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 1: has no thirdrollest drop rate on passes when he's wits,

443
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 1: so he could easily be completing, you know, under fifty

444
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,919
Speaker 1: percent of his passes against the blitz. And this went

445
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 1: the sort of offense. They have one of the greatest

446
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 1: receivers of all time, but and and a lot of

447
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 1: good players at the skill positions. But twenty second and

448
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 1: waded dv Away twentieth in passing offense, twenty sixth and

449
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 1: rs rushing offense. That's after factoring in and waiting more

450
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 1: heavily that game last week against the coach, so they

451
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: put up what over five hundred yards. So this this

452
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 1: offense has just been something's a little off. It's really

453
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 1: weird because talent wise, I feel like they should be better,

454
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 1: but it's it's weak sixteen now, so he can't just say, oh,

455
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 1: you know, these things are gonna like at this point,

456
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 1: this is kind of what they are. Meanwhile, the Giants defense,

457
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 1: you know, not great in certain metrics. They're twenty ninth

458
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 1: and weighted dv AWAY, but because they're so well coached,

459
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 1: they are making plays when it matters in excelling and

460
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 1: situational football. They're fifth on third down and they're fourth

461
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 1: in the red zone and again this week sixteen, So

462
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 1: I do think that that is at least part of

463
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 1: their identity at this point in the season. And then

464
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 1: on the other side, this Minnesota defense not very good.

465
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 1: They finally started to switch up their scheme a little

466
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 1: last week and they played some more man and blitz

467
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 1: more and I think they played some more Cover one,

468
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 1: but it was against the Colts, who were ranked I

469
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,639
Speaker 1: believe it's dead last on offense, so I wouldn't take

470
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 1: too much from that performance last week. This Giant offense,

471
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 1: which this is the craziest thing. I remember I said

472
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 1: the Viking offense twenty second in DVA. The Giant offense

473
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 1: is twelve. So the Giants somehow, with no receivers, tak

474
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 1: one Barkley, Daniel Jones, Ray doesn't even throw touchdowns. They've

475
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 1: somehow and no offensive line for half the year, they've

476
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: managed to be twelfth in DVAWAY and their top fifteen

477
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 1: passing and rushing, ninth in passing DVOA somehow ninth, but no,

478
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 1: justin Jefferson nineteen spots higher than the Vikings. That it's

479
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 1: just ridiculous, like something's so talk about reasons to fade

480
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 1: the Vikings. I something's just a little off. Yet this

481
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 1: team's getting out gained by over forty yards per game. Yes,

482
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 1: the Giants are coming off a bit of a shorter

483
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 1: week than than usual because it's Saturday and they played

484
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,640
Speaker 1: on the night game, but again, Saturday road teams doesn't

485
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 1: matter if you're a favorite or an underdog. Fifty five

486
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: thirty two against the spread sixty three percent and so

487
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:36,120
Speaker 1: four dable underdable. The Giants are six three and one

488
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:39,160
Speaker 1: straight up when they're an underdog, so they they've won

489
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:41,919
Speaker 1: six out of ten games outright when they're an underdog.

490
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 1: And of course they got that tie against Washington and

491
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones fifteen and five against the spread as a

492
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 1: as an underdog, thirteen and five as a road underdog

493
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 1: against the spread, that's seventy two percent, and when the

494
00:25:56,200 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 1: spread is under eight points and he's a road underdog

495
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 1: eleven and one against the spreads. So I'm gonna keep

496
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 1: fading the Vikings until it stops working. And I'm gonna

497
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 1: keep backing Daniel Jonesan and this Giants team that always

498
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 1: finds a way, whether it's refecests or whatever it might be,

499
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 1: they seem to find a way. So give me the

500
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 1: Geman plus four and a half against the Minnesota.

501
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 2: Yeah. I did see that the Vikings did change up

502
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 2: their defense last week, which I thought was refreshing in

503
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 2: that they're willing. Their defense has been bad all year,

504
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 2: so that Dona tell Yeah, it was able like they're gonna, okay,

505
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 2: let's try something new. So we'll see if that translates

506
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 2: into better results, mainly speaking for down the line. But yeah,

507
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 2: they they doubled their man raid and yeah, almost double

508
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:51,679
Speaker 2: their blitz rate. Yeah, I mean a lot of the

509
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 2: Vikings problems on offense has been the pressure that they're

510
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:58,119
Speaker 2: giving up in the interior. That's where I think the

511
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 2: Giants can really focus here. We'll see if I mean, look,

512
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 2: it apparently is Kart Bradbury is way more important than

513
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,479
Speaker 2: I thought, especially for this offense. But ed Ingram has

514
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 2: been really bad. And yeah, yeah, I think we could

515
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 2: Schlotman if if Bradbury can't go. So there's some holes

516
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:20,160
Speaker 2: in that interior, which is where I think the Martindelle

517
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,879
Speaker 2: and company are going to try and blitz. Davideo's playing

518
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 2: really well, but I think that the Giants are just

519
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:27,399
Speaker 2: going to say, look, we're gonna blitz and get pressure

520
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 2: on Cousins and force them the mistakes. And I show

521
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 2: a little bit of value this number as well. And

522
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 2: this is the Giants just ugly up games, find a

523
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,400
Speaker 2: way to keeping close in the road and the Vikings.

524
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 2: But they've won t their last ten wins have all

525
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 2: been by one possession. So, like we said last week,

526
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 2: such a high chance of Vikings win this game by three.

527
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. Kirk Cousins hasn't been great. He's got a

528
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 1: better scheme around him, he's got better he's got a

529
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,920
Speaker 1: good skill players. Kirk Cousins just kind of been laboring

530
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 1: out there, I feel like, and that's why he's like,

531
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 1: you look at he's getting his yards, but his yards

532
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: for completion is I think at a career low point

533
00:27:58,320 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 1: or near it.

534
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 2: He's gonna get so much for coming back from thirty

535
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 2: three nothing against the Colts, but and.

536
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: Why throw for four hundred and that you know that

537
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,120
Speaker 1: was eleven point loss.

538
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 2: Because of their interior is struggling on fourth and one,

539
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,919
Speaker 2: and Cousins isn't a great quarterback sneaker. They like won't

540
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 2: quarterback sneak. And it's costing them. It cost them like

541
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 2: two drives in a row at their own thirty last week,

542
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 2: so that potentially could kill drives. And their special teams

543
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 2: is playing really poor. And yeah, this is just a

544
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 2: blog machine that keeps getting lucky. And I don't mind

545
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 2: taking the g men here on the road, the road Warriors.

546
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,159
Speaker 1: I got, and I you know, I wish there was

547
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 1: like some like because I'm really starting to I know,

548
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 1: we talked about this early in the year and we

549
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 1: kind of, you know, we just took the Giants. We

550
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 1: didn't really hit on it. But like this coaching for

551
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 1: this team, now that we have almost a full season

552
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 1: a sample size, like just looking at some of the things,

553
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 1: like it has to be coaching. You know how the

554
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 1: Patriots would always outperform the Pitzager and win total. Yeah,

555
00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 1: it's like this Giant team is pretty much the top

556
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 1: ten pass offense in dv O A. They have no receivers.

557
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,719
Speaker 1: That's got that's got to be coaching. The defense, you know,

558
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 1: bottom five in DVOA. A lot of you know, bottom

559
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 1: five and against the run almost any any metrics you

560
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 1: look at. But then top five on a third down,

561
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 1: top five in the red zone, like that's that's coaching,

562
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 1: Like it's kind of a third So yeah, I think

563
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 1: that's that's kind of one of the reasons.

564
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 2: Gave All has just really simplified things for him. It's like,

565
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 2: all right, let's let's flood everyone to one side of

566
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 2: the field and then just focus on here, and then

567
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 2: you just have like two layers worth of first look at,

568
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 2: don't worry about trying to progress all the way across

569
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 2: the field. And he's just made it really simple. And

570
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 2: Jones has picked that up, and you know, the play

571
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 2: calling has been great and they kind of are just

572
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 2: working with what they got. You know, next year, that

573
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 2: defense could be really dangerous.

574
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 1: One thing that they do that I think probably has,

575
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 1: if not won them a game, at least like sealed

576
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 1: it for them. But they've done this quite a few

577
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 1: times is you know, late in the game they're in

578
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 1: Quack killing mode and it's hand off the saquon, hand

579
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 1: off the Saquon. They'll hand they'll do the fake handle

580
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 1: to Saquon with Jones just bootlegging out and just running

581
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 1: and he'll get fifteen yards every time they do it

582
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 1: because it's just a perfect play call and when and

583
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 1: every the defense just thinks they're gonna hand the saquon again.

584
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 1: So like simple things like that, I just see the

585
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 1: Giants doing that. I feel like a lot of other

586
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 1: teams can learn from because this team is definitely no

587
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 1: has no business being as successful as it is given

588
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 1: the talent on a roster.

589
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 2: Yep, all right. For my second pick of the fourth

590
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 2: overall the week sixteen Sunday six pack, I'm going with

591
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 2: the Washington Commanders plus seven at the forty nine ers.

592
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 2: This one is painful, yes, but right off the bat,

593
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 2: I show a little bit of value in the line

594
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 2: and I'm catching seven on the road in a game

595
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 2: with a total of what it's down to thirty eight.

596
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 2: How many times we brought up Shanahan at home, how

597
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 2: bad he has been as a home favor, and a

598
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 2: lot of times he's gonna play really conservative esecially when

599
00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 2: they're the superior team, You're gonna see him a fourth

600
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 2: and one, Like perfect examples. I'm pretty got the off

601
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 2: side drew the off sides end of the quarter, come

602
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 2: back and he punts up fourth and one at the

603
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 2: fourth against Seattle, kick and kick a field going forth

604
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 2: one Just there won't be the most optimal decisions to

605
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 2: kind of extend the lead here, and he's kind of

606
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 2: on your side, and the way when you have the

607
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 2: dog Washington, I don't. I mean, look, there's there's word

608
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 2: of maybe Carson Wentz. This this isn't a Carson Wentz podcast.

609
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 2: But the only thing I do like when there's two

610
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 2: quarterbacks who just aren't great, if the coaches, like I

611
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 2: might be thinking about making a change, because he was

612
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:39,960
Speaker 2: maybe gonna make a change last week he said before

613
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,960
Speaker 2: the touchdown drive that Washington had is that if one

614
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 2: quarterback is a disaster, you can have and these two

615
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 2: quarterbacks are just high errants, you can bring the other

616
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 2: one in to see if he has anything. But speaking

617
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 2: of high arrants quarterbacks, we still don't cannot say with

618
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 2: certainty that Rock Party is what Jimmy g was. You know,

619
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 2: it's all been a couple of games. We've seen quarterbacks

620
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 2: including Taylor Heineke, have a lot of success for a

621
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 2: couple of games and then you know, you get film

622
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 2: on them. And Rock Party has been really good. But

623
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 2: he's still missed irrelevant. He's still had about three throws

624
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 2: so far that should have been picks that were either

625
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 2: wide open drops or some terrible penalty call. That that

626
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 2: Bucks game comes to mind. There was a couple in

627
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 2: that game and the Seattle wide open drop when Diggs

628
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 2: basically was thrown right to him. And so he's had

629
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 2: a couple rookie questionable mistakes here and now there's film

630
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 2: on him. We know Washington's run defense is excellent. That's

631
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 2: San Francisco's bread and butter, and I think that they're

632
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:46,719
Speaker 2: gonna make pretty beat them deep and we'll see if

633
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 2: he can do it. No depot Samuel here. San Francisco

634
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 2: clinched the division last week, Washington's playoff hopes on the line,

635
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 2: and we talked about heinike in this Washington team on

636
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,719
Speaker 2: the Giants last week. No, we do not want them

637
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 2: as a favorite, No, absolutely not. But they're the new

638
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 2: Jamis Winston. We could always look Washington as an underdog,

639
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 2: especially catching seven in the game with total thirty eight

640
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 2: and a half against a coach that it's historically been

641
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 2: horrendous at home. As a favorite, especially of seven or more.

642
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 2: The San Francisco defense is playing out of its mind lately.

643
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 2: But I think this is the peak of the market.

644
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, this has been a weird couple of weeks with this,

645
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 1: with this Washington team. I feel like last week somehow

646
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 1: like the Giants were the square side, like, well the

647
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 1: whole everyone in public was betting the Giants, but yeah,

648
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 1: sharps are on Washington. I just didn't get it, like

649
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 1: I'm never going to change a bet or you know,

650
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 1: not make a bet because of you know, public actually

651
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 1: doesn't affect what's going on in the field. And I

652
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 1: just didn't get it. And sure enough, it's just exactly

653
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 1: what we've seen every other week from these two teams.

654
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 1: So and now no one's talking about Washington. No one

655
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 1: wants to touch him. There's seven point underdogs against Brock

656
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 1: Purdy making his what career start? You wanted to take

657
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 1: Washington as four and a half five point favorite against

658
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 1: a team that they didn't cover against two weeks ago,

659
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 1: But now just radio silence. I don't know, I don't

660
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 1: I don't get I think everyone's kind of Washington just

661
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 1: throws people off. It is a weird team, but this

662
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:19,919
Speaker 1: is when you want to invest in in a team

663
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,800
Speaker 1: like this. It's not even just Washington. This is generally

664
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,799
Speaker 1: just I think a good example of just how you

665
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 1: bet the NFL in general. It's, you know, you only

666
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 1: have thirty two teams. You're gonna have to bet on

667
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 1: some teams and players that probably don't like that much.

668
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 2: And you gotta remember the Serrancisca has been great, their

669
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 2: defense has been elite. But I mean, if you look

670
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 2: over the course of their schedule, their schedule overall has

671
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 2: been extremely easy, mainly because that division has been extremely easy.

672
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 2: But the I think the Washington run defense here too.

673
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 2: That can you know, that's what San Francisco wants to do.

674
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 2: They've already won the division. Like you're not getting the

675
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 2: one seed you're going to get. You want to get purty.

676
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 2: Some reps you can't get them hurt, you don't want

677
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 2: to show too much. So, like I this will be

678
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:05,320
Speaker 2: a classic Shanahan conservative game. I think probably it probably

679
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 2: ends up like seventeen thirteen Sara Fan. It's like it's

680
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,479
Speaker 2: on Christmas Eve, Sana for already clinched. It's not gonna

681
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 2: be the greatest home field advantage. It's not gonna be

682
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:17,399
Speaker 2: this raucous crowd on Christmas Eve. Keep out of minds

683
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 2: for this weekend.

684
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: Maybe that's why the road teams cover so much. Maybe

685
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,280
Speaker 1: that's it because a lot of Saturday things are around

686
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 1: this time of year.

687
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, keep out of mind, especially for the really cold games.

688
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,359
Speaker 2: Like in teams it's not a big game. You got

689
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 2: a lot of people like, yeah, you know what, I'm

690
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 2: not going.

691
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, speaking of teams that don't necessarily love betting on.

692
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:40,320
Speaker 1: But sometimes I'm gonna take the plunge. For my third

693
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 1: and final pick, fifth overall of the Week sixteen six

694
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:47,840
Speaker 1: pack presented by fan Due We with the Houston Texans

695
00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. See if you can shop,

696
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 1: maybe get a four to four and a half. But

697
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 1: like this and anything over a field goal against the

698
00:35:55,920 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans, like Malik Willis is the the starter. Listen.

699
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:03,799
Speaker 1: I know if they beat the Texans seventeen to ten,

700
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 1: Texans got ran all over. We'll talk about that why.

701
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 1: I think it could be a little different this time around.

702
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 1: But let's just keep something in mind here. We're talking

703
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 1: about getting more than a field goal for quarterback that

704
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,319
Speaker 1: threw for ninety seven, that led them to ninety seven

705
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:22,280
Speaker 1: net yards passing in two games, ninety seven in two games,

706
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:26,479
Speaker 1: he averaged under fifty yards a pass off per game.

707
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 1: It's twenty twenty two. Like, I don't care who you are.

708
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 1: We just saw this Texan team take the Cowboys to

709
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 1: the wire, one of the best teams in the league,

710
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,919
Speaker 1: and then they come right back and take the Chance

711
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:40,879
Speaker 1: to the wire, one of the best teams in the league.

712
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,680
Speaker 1: So has this Texan team given up? No, That's that's

713
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 1: all I need in a spot like this, Because the

714
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 1: Titans obviously are going to think of this division race,

715
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 1: They're gonna be playing hard. The Texans are playing hard

716
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 1: as well, and the Texans have been hanging with I mean, frankly,

717
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 1: the Texans have been playing better than the Titans in

718
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 1: the last few weeks. So uh, you know, like it

719
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 1: with getting the backup quarterback and getting over a field

720
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 1: goal and Houston's defense. Last time they faced Derrick Henry,

721
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 1: they had the worst run defense in the league. There's

722
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 1: been a few teams that have kind of taken that

723
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,359
Speaker 1: crown at different times. I think the Lions, the Seahawks,

724
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 1: the Bears probably in that category. But Texas are the

725
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:23,280
Speaker 1: worst run defense in the league. Derrick Henry, it couldn't

726
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:28,879
Speaker 1: stop them. Okay, well, Houston's defense generally overall has been

727
00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 1: much improved since then. They are up to fourteenth overall

728
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 1: and weighted DVA. They're sixteen pass and twenty rush. But

729
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 1: since we ten, they're actually tenth in run defense DVA.

730
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:47,240
Speaker 1: So this Houston run defense has essentially improved about thirty

731
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 1: about twenty spots excuse me, from where they were last

732
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:53,759
Speaker 1: time they faced Derek Henry. Now they're still gonna give

733
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 1: up some plays. We saw that with Jared Kinnon. But

734
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 1: generally speaking, this is a better defense all around, better

735
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 1: on the ground. Facing the week Willis. So I don't

736
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 1: I think not only can Houston cover here, I think

737
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 1: they're a live dog. We've seen this before. I think

738
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 1: I want to say you had them either as a

739
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:11,840
Speaker 1: dog or a moneyline dog or just on the spread.

740
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 1: But it was like plus eleven, I think Tyrod Taylor

741
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:17,439
Speaker 1: was starting for Houston or something, and they just spot

742
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 1: out beat Tennessee. Uh in one of those years when

743
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 1: Tennessee was really yeah Tennessee.

744
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 2: Yeah. So yeah, they they were wired to wire easy winner.

745
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:29,839
Speaker 1: Right, So you know this is a division game wait

746
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 1: in the year where they use the team that's playing

747
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:35,799
Speaker 1: very hard and they're I think they're throwing teams off

748
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 1: with this, you know, quarterback platoon and it's kind of

749
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 1: working out. Damian Pierce. Losing him obviously hurts, But remember

750
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 1: the Titans. One thing they still have done well, uh

751
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 1: you know throughout all of this, because even their run game,

752
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 1: it's been up and down this year with Henry, but

753
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:54,239
Speaker 1: they still defend a run well, the number one run

754
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 1: defense evenyway. So you know, losing Damian Pierce in this

755
00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 1: game not a massive deal because as you're still don't

756
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 1: have to cobble together offense with your quarterback platoon and

757
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 1: Mike get some Brandon Cooks back here. But I just

758
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:11,320
Speaker 1: you know, watching Houston play this last couple of weeks,

759
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:13,919
Speaker 1: they just passed the eye test. They're kind of hanging around,

760
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,720
Speaker 1: hanging on here. I think Andy Reid was gushing about

761
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:21,359
Speaker 1: their scheme and their coaching, and you know, I take

762
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 1: his word for it because he's one of the best

763
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 1: to do it, and you don't hear him do that

764
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 1: a lot. So yeah, just give me the Houston Texans

765
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:34,759
Speaker 1: in this spot as divisional dogs late in the year

766
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:38,319
Speaker 1: against this Titan team starting a quarterback that hasn't led

767
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 1: them to one hundred net yards of pass offense and

768
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:43,840
Speaker 1: he's already started two games. And also remember Mike vrabel

769
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:47,880
Speaker 1: Is twenty two and fourteen against the spread as an underdog,

770
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 1: but just nineteen and twenty two is a favorite. So

771
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 1: this is this kind of spot where you do want

772
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 1: to fade this Tennessee Titan team, who you know, they

773
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:02,280
Speaker 1: haven't topped seventeen points yet in a game with Mawik

774
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 1: Willis and his Texan team. I don't know how they're

775
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 1: doing it, but they're doing it. I'm not gonna ask questions.

776
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 1: Just just lose by uh if was by field goal,

777
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 1: or win the game. Houston, I'm taking you against Tennessee.

778
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:17,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, this scares me a little bit. I mean, yeah,

779
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 2: we'll see how they hold off against Henry. That the type.

780
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:22,440
Speaker 2: I mean what's hard for me is the Titans have

781
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:24,839
Speaker 2: so many injuries. Like if they have all these guys out,

782
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 2: then I like it. And we don't know who's gonna play.

783
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 2: I mean you're talking like, is are they gonna get?

784
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:33,319
Speaker 2: You know, Nate Davis, they're starting guard, didn't practice today.

785
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 2: Fulton still didn't practice. Even Dennis Dale he was out there,

786
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 2: he was limited today. Their center Ben Jones is really good.

787
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 2: Didn't practice. Terrence Mitchell, their corner got hurt. He didn't practice.

788
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:48,759
Speaker 2: Tenne Hills out for the year, Denico Autrey Heath was full.

789
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 2: That's big. I think he's important. Trey Avery was limited.

790
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:56,320
Speaker 2: I mean it's I could go on our money, Amoney

791
00:40:56,360 --> 00:41:00,720
Speaker 2: Hooker didn't practice, Petite Ferrer was limited. Jeff Free Simmons

792
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 2: didn't practice. Traylon Burks was full. That helps this. They

793
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 2: have like thirty guys on the injury repoard and like

794
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 2: seven or eight important players that have been playing on defense.

795
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 2: So I don't there's a lot of uncertainty with the injuries,

796
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:17,400
Speaker 2: and it does scare me. What Henry has done against

797
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:20,399
Speaker 2: the the Texans. I mean he's gone these last four games,

798
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:23,799
Speaker 2: He's gone thirty two to nineteen to two thirty four

799
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:27,399
Speaker 2: for two point fifty two touchdowns, twenty two for two

800
00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 2: twelve and two touchdowns, thirty two and two eleven and

801
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:34,399
Speaker 2: three touchdowns. He's ran for two hundred plus and four

802
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 2: straight against them, with multiple touchdowns in every game. So

803
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 2: that does scare me a little bit. Really.

804
00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 1: Alst of those games have been close, though, if I'm

805
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:43,240
Speaker 1: not mistaken, I distinct.

806
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:45,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I mean yeah, they it's I don't mind,

807
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:47,959
Speaker 2: you know, because I had to take it. I would

808
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 2: take the points here. The Titans are a free fall mode,

809
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 2: but uh, you know, cold game in December against you know,

810
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 2: a Dome team and who has nothing to play for

811
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:02,759
Speaker 2: Titans in like inspiration mode after Tannehill went out, so

812
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 2: like the spot scares me with like is Henry just

813
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:09,920
Speaker 2: going to be bouncing off guys the entire game? And

814
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 2: then like do you really trust Davis Mills on the

815
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 2: road outdoors with just throwing it up to Chris Moore?

816
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 1: I mean, after watching it in the last two weeks,

817
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 1: I trust.

818
00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 2: I mean indoors, though indoors Okay, he's been real bad

819
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:24,879
Speaker 2: on the road his whole career. We'll see, all right.

820
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 2: For my third pick in the sixth overall of the

821
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 2: week sixteen to six pack, I'm going with the Dallas

822
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 2: Cowboys minus four and a half at home against the

823
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 2: Philadelphia Eagles. This is kind of a well, first of all,

824
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 2: I do not think that Jalen Hurts is gonna play.

825
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:45,760
Speaker 2: I'm almost doubtful.

826
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:46,279
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure.

827
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 2: That means, yeah, I'm almost positive of that. And I

828
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 2: am making an educated guest here that this might sound crazy,

829
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:56,800
Speaker 2: but I do a lot of crazy things. That the

830
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 2: Eagles are throwing this game, and what I mean might

831
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 2: as they don't care about it and they don't really

832
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 2: want to win it. They don't want to show Dallas anything.

833
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 2: I really don't think that hurts. Well, how was he hurt?

834
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 2: He came back and he looked finey through a seventy

835
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:11,800
Speaker 2: or bomb. I just think they're worried about getting healthy.

836
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 2: They can clinch the division next week at home against

837
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:16,399
Speaker 2: the Saints, and by the way, they want to beat

838
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 2: the Saints because they get their draft pick. I don't

839
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 2: think they're going to show much they don't want to see.

840
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 2: They don't want Dallas to see their defense, I mean

841
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 2: their offense again. So they're probably gonna have to see

842
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 2: Dallas in the playoffs, either them or the forty nine

843
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:29,320
Speaker 2: ers to go to the Super Bowl. So you know,

844
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 2: I don't think they've played Godard. And by the way,

845
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 2: the Eagles have not been good on the road. I

846
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:35,320
Speaker 2: faded them again last week on the road, and I

847
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 2: think they're two and five against the spread now and

848
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 2: this is the Cowboys Super Bowl, and I think that

849
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 2: they'll be able to run the ball and that is

850
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 2: the only time I really trust their offense. And when

851
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 2: the run game is going, they still they still were

852
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:48,279
Speaker 2: up seventeen last week at Jacksonville. I think this is

853
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 2: a good by low spot on Dallas. But Mike and Look,

854
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:53,919
Speaker 2: you don't have Gardner Vinsho playing last year. He played

855
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:56,800
Speaker 2: against the Jets defense, and if you recall the Jets

856
00:43:56,840 --> 00:44:01,360
Speaker 2: defense last year was poverty was so bad. People forget that.

857
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 2: People forget how bad the Jets defense was last week

858
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 2: last year because they're so good. Gardner Minshew doesn't have

859
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:07,920
Speaker 2: the same running ability you know in the read option

860
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 2: in the design runs as jenders, which really makes that

861
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 2: offense so dynamic and so difficult to defend. He's also

862
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 2: a Look hasn't played in a while, and now he's

863
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 2: going up against the defense that can generate a ton

864
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 2: of pressure on the road in a you know, a

865
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 2: stadium that'll be in a frenzy. This is not an

866
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:27,799
Speaker 2: easy test, especially when you consider rip to the goat

867
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 2: Mike Leach like he had a he missed the walkthrough.

868
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:33,120
Speaker 2: He was at Leech's funeral earlier this week, so and

869
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:34,719
Speaker 2: you know, when you have a backup start, you want

870
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 2: to get as many reps you can, especially in a

871
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 2: short week in the second straight road game. So I

872
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 2: think this sets up as Dallas's super Bowl. Be able

873
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:45,279
Speaker 2: to run the ball, be able to get pressure to

874
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 2: backup quarterback, and then it's just snowballs in the Eagles.

875
00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 2: And I think that the Eagles ultimately don't care the

876
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:54,799
Speaker 2: way that Sirianni is, you know, the way that they

877
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:57,399
Speaker 2: just are. Look, we want to focus on the super Bowl.

878
00:44:57,440 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 2: We have bigger aspirations. Let's not show anything here. I think, Look,

879
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 2: but's beat the Saints next week at home, or Dallas

880
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:04,880
Speaker 2: loses at Tennessee.

881
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:06,959
Speaker 1: Oh, it would only be right that that's what would happened.

882
00:45:07,040 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 2: Dallas could lose a Tennessee, by the way, and they

883
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 2: would already know that they clicked the overall one seed.

884
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 2: But I think that they might want to get a

885
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 2: game in. I don't think they want to go a

886
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:16,839
Speaker 2: whole month with that with resting starters. But I don't

887
00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:19,000
Speaker 2: think they bring god Hear back. And I think the

888
00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 2: snowballs early gets away from the Eagles and they say,

889
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 2: I don't care. You know something, They're gonna quit. But

890
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 2: I think they're just gonna go very vanilla. You can

891
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:27,720
Speaker 2: go very vanilla defense. You're gonna have a backup quarterback

892
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:29,759
Speaker 2: in there. You're not running any of your read option

893
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:33,840
Speaker 2: stuff with you know, with Gardner Minshew against Michael Parsons

894
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:36,480
Speaker 2: and company. Look, I played a little bit on the open.

895
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:38,960
Speaker 2: I would play at four and a half. I don't

896
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 2: show a ton of I don't show a ton of

897
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 2: value in the line. But I also I still would

898
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 2: play on up to four and a half. I also

899
00:45:45,600 --> 00:45:48,360
Speaker 2: money line them with the Bucks. We'll talk about that

900
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 2: in Best of the Rest. It's I think all the

901
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:54,400
Speaker 2: Cardinals corners are out Trace McSorley is starting, but I

902
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:56,440
Speaker 2: think the Cardinals second half of the year at home,

903
00:45:56,560 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 2: they lost like twelve straight at home games. So I

904
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 2: think a good money line parlay. So I could be

905
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:02,759
Speaker 2: completely wrong, like Hurt's gonad up playing and this is

906
00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 2: all smokestreen and they like now Now loot. They could

907
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:08,799
Speaker 2: clinch everything by beating Dallas, but that's no guarantee. They

908
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 2: would be an underdogs, and it would be at one

909
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 2: point underdog anyway. So I kind of get the line

910
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 2: of thinking, and I don't necessarily disagree with it. I'm

911
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:17,759
Speaker 2: going with Dallas here in a little bit of a

912
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:18,919
Speaker 2: gutten intuition player.

913
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's actually a good point. I mean, I thought

914
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:24,640
Speaker 1: I saw somewhere that Hurts was doubtful. Looks like he

915
00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 1: still listen as questionable on the official injury report, but

916
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 1: it sounds like he's not going to play. The market

917
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:32,279
Speaker 1: seems to think he's not going to play. So that's

918
00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:34,799
Speaker 1: a really good point. And remember, I'm surprised you didn't

919
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 1: bring this up, but they did something similar to this, yeah,

920
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 1: against Dallas and Minchew. Minchew started against Dallas with like

921
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 1: DeVante Smith, played a few snaps. Everyone kind of started,

922
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 1: but they kind of gave up quick, and Dallas went

923
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:51,000
Speaker 1: fifty eight to twenty one, fifty one to twenty six.

924
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 1: Becuse he's fifty one twenty six that you can see

925
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:57,440
Speaker 1: something like that again. Becausedallas needs this, especially after you know,

926
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:00,760
Speaker 1: blowing a game, uh to Jacksonville tickets.

927
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:02,880
Speaker 2: Just kind of super Bowl verse there, and that's all

928
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 2: it is. So give me the boys.

929
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 1: You make a good point because I'm looking at the

930
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 1: injury report right now, and as you mentioned, you know,

931
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:11,880
Speaker 1: ten got ten starters missing practice just you know, no

932
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:14,799
Speaker 1: non injury just you know, straight up rest day when

933
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 1: you have a backup quarterback that's.

934
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 2: Kind of in the games on Saturday.

935
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:21,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, That's what I mean. It's kind of pe chilliar.

936
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 1: So uh yeah it could be. Uh it's weird though,

937
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:26,480
Speaker 1: because you see, Now this is another one where I

938
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:28,359
Speaker 1: looked in the action app and I see the sharp

939
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 1: signal on Philly. It's like, I just don't get some

940
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 1: of these, uh, some of the sharp plays or quote

941
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:36,800
Speaker 1: unquote sharp players. I should say. Wait, Like I remember

942
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 1: we were both baffled at the why why why they

943
00:47:39,080 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 1: were on the Dolphins minus three and a half against

944
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:45,560
Speaker 1: the charters, and like, yeah, yeah, our intuition was right,

945
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 1: and yeah, I don't know, I don't know what's going on.

946
00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 2: Yeah. The Eagles injury report today, they rested like eleven stars.

947
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:59,920
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, like Kelsey Bradbury, Slay Graham, Sweat Cox, Dickerson, Samalo, Wayne.

948
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:01,719
Speaker 2: John AJ Brown.

949
00:48:02,640 --> 00:48:04,799
Speaker 1: Why everyone else get arrest ded? But the third string

950
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 1: tight end is practicing with a knee, Like why did

951
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 1: he got a practice a fucking knee injury? That's a

952
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:17,359
Speaker 1: spout shit, man. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you're probably right about this.

953
00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:20,359
Speaker 1: That's a very very good call out there. All right,

954
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:24,080
Speaker 1: So that is gonna wrap it for the Week sixteen

955
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:28,840
Speaker 1: six pack stuck. You got the Patriots plus three and

956
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:33,320
Speaker 1: a half, some Matt Jones, some Heinike with Washington plus seven,

957
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:40,000
Speaker 1: and some dak with the Cowboys minus four and a half.

958
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:43,400
Speaker 1: And I got some Aaron Rodgers plus three and a

959
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:47,760
Speaker 1: half with the Pack against Steve Dolphins, got Daniel Jones

960
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 1: plus four and a half at Minnesota. And I don't

961
00:48:51,719 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 1: know who is Davis Mills. Jeff Driscoll won both. I

962
00:48:55,719 --> 00:48:59,880
Speaker 1: was Houston plus three and a half against the Titan.

963
00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into the Week sixteen coaches pep Talk.

964
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:07,320
Speaker 2: This is by far the worst team that has ever sat.

965
00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:08,000
Speaker 1: In this locker room.

966
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 2: You prefer the locker room.

967
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 1: You should be playing without uniform.

968
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 2: There's not one of you, not one of you.

969
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:16,600
Speaker 1: That's learned how to win. All right, This week's coaches

970
00:49:16,640 --> 00:49:19,919
Speaker 1: pep Talk comes to us from the beloved nineteen eighty

971
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 1: nine holiday film National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation. We got it

972
00:49:24,640 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 1: dedicated to Matt Patricia. Yeah, I mean, heck, we can

973
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:31,839
Speaker 1: dedicate it to Belichick too. This whole Patriots crash, yeah right,

974
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 1: all those dudes, man, Hey.

975
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:37,959
Speaker 4: If any of you are looking for any blast minuted

976
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,320
Speaker 4: gift ideas for me, I have one.

977
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 2: I like my boss right here tonight.

978
00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 4: I want him brought from his happy holiday slumber over

979
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:47,680
Speaker 4: there with all the other rich people. And I want

980
00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 4: Tom brought right here with a big ribbon on his head,

981
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 4: and I want to look him straight in the eye.

982
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 4: I don't want to tell him what a cheap lye

983
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:58,520
Speaker 4: no good rotten for flushing, low life, snake looking, dirt

984
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 4: eating and bread over stuff, ignorant, blood sucking, dog kissing, brainless, dickless, hopeless, heartless, fatass,

985
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:10,239
Speaker 4: bug eyed, stiff like it's funny, worm headed sack of

986
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 4: monkey shit he is, Hey, loja, holy shit, where's the title?

987
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:20,399
Speaker 1: All hight we'd jump into our favorite total of both

988
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:22,840
Speaker 1: of our totals missed last week. That my probably the

989
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:24,360
Speaker 1: first time in a while that I think both of

990
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:25,440
Speaker 1: us have missed at the same time.

991
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:27,759
Speaker 2: Checkond time this year. Total's really good. Let's get back

992
00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:32,640
Speaker 2: on track. I'm gonna go with the Ravens Falcons under

993
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:34,640
Speaker 2: thirty five and a half. This numbers come down a

994
00:50:34,640 --> 00:50:38,319
Speaker 2: little bit. I wouldn't go to thirty five, but I

995
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:40,200
Speaker 2: just think that the way this game is gonna play out.

996
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 2: I don't think Lamar is gonna play. We'll see Tyler

997
00:50:43,640 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 2: Huntley's now on the injury report, but look, there's been

998
00:50:48,680 --> 00:50:50,320
Speaker 2: a lot of drop. First of all, this game is

999
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:52,480
Speaker 2: just gonna be two of the most run heavy teams

1000
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 2: in the NFL and weather in the cold. Desmond Ridder

1001
00:50:55,120 --> 00:51:01,560
Speaker 2: looked horrendous last week. I yeah, that was amazing. He

1002
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:05,000
Speaker 2: looked really bad. I don't think that he's gonna have

1003
00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:08,400
Speaker 2: much success on the road in the cold with some

1004
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:12,920
Speaker 2: win against an angry Ravens defense, especially when you consider

1005
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 2: the fact that since Brokewan Smith has arrived in Baltimore,

1006
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:19,879
Speaker 2: they've been number one against the run EPA per rush

1007
00:51:20,280 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 2: I think number two and success right behind the Patriots.

1008
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:26,120
Speaker 2: Their run depense is really good. Like you, you're not

1009
00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:29,000
Speaker 2: gonna Marcus Peters on that side. I don't think it

1010
00:51:29,080 --> 00:51:33,160
Speaker 2: matters with Desmond Ritter here. Ravens ultimately I think will

1011
00:51:33,160 --> 00:51:36,759
Speaker 2: win this game because they can run the ball and

1012
00:51:36,800 --> 00:51:38,839
Speaker 2: the Falcons can't defend the run. So it's like two

1013
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:43,000
Speaker 2: really run heavy teams, limited passing attacks, like no one's

1014
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:44,319
Speaker 2: gonna be able to throw the ball in this game,

1015
00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:48,600
Speaker 2: and one run defense is really good and the other

1016
00:51:48,680 --> 00:51:50,399
Speaker 2: run defense is and I think that's what it comes

1017
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:53,200
Speaker 2: down to. But the clock's gonna be bleeding here. And

1018
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:57,200
Speaker 2: the Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman took a lot of

1019
00:51:57,239 --> 00:52:00,480
Speaker 2: shit last week because then I was in the stands

1020
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:02,360
Speaker 2: yelling this, like why aren't they running the ball? And

1021
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:04,640
Speaker 2: instead of throwing it like at the ten, they only

1022
00:52:04,719 --> 00:52:07,760
Speaker 2: ran it four times, and like the in the fourth quarter,

1023
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:10,319
Speaker 2: they were averaging like nine yards of carry for the game,

1024
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:13,160
Speaker 2: and they stopped running in the second half and they

1025
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 2: were gashing the Browns and you had Bowser put up

1026
00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:23,799
Speaker 2: a tyas Bowser, their slot linebacker, went on Instagram and

1027
00:52:23,840 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 2: like shared like fire fire Greg Roman, and they had

1028
00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:31,839
Speaker 2: like all the all the interviews and uh talk, they

1029
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:34,959
Speaker 2: like made up and hugged apparently, but all the talk

1030
00:52:35,000 --> 00:52:36,879
Speaker 2: has been about this, like why aren't you running the ball?

1031
00:52:37,239 --> 00:52:39,239
Speaker 2: Like we have a backup quarterback. You're on the road

1032
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:41,719
Speaker 2: in the cold, and you have no receivers. Now you

1033
00:52:41,760 --> 00:52:44,120
Speaker 2: have no receivers. Who knows you're gonna be quarterback? This week?

1034
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:46,800
Speaker 2: It's gonna be the same situation here, bad run defense

1035
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:50,280
Speaker 2: in the cold with you know who knows the quarterback?

1036
00:52:50,320 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 2: You have no receivers left, You can bet your ass

1037
00:52:53,000 --> 00:52:56,239
Speaker 2: that the Ravens are gonna run the ball this forty times.

1038
00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:58,000
Speaker 2: And if you look at what the Ravens have done

1039
00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 2: since Huntley has took over, and I I didn't preached

1040
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 2: this for about a month or two, their defense is

1041
00:53:02,120 --> 00:53:04,120
Speaker 2: probably the most underrating NFL right now since they've been

1042
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:06,279
Speaker 2: healthy and they added rokeland Smith and they won't be

1043
00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:08,320
Speaker 2: fully healthy this week, but I don't think it's ultimately

1044
00:53:08,320 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 2: go any matter without Peters and probably Campbell. But look,

1045
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:13,759
Speaker 2: here are their games recently with Huntley. I mean they

1046
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 2: beat the Broncos at home ten to nine, and then

1047
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:20,319
Speaker 2: they won app Pitt sixteen to fourteen, and then last

1048
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:23,120
Speaker 2: week they lost thirteen to three. I mean, these are

1049
00:53:23,120 --> 00:53:26,200
Speaker 2: their games right now with Huntley. It's like really good defense,

1050
00:53:26,840 --> 00:53:29,640
Speaker 2: they can't really move the ball, and then last week

1051
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:31,400
Speaker 2: they kind of abandoned the rum they were running it.

1052
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 4: Well.

1053
00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:33,359
Speaker 2: I think they'll be able to do that now, which

1054
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:36,000
Speaker 2: means like they're gonna sustain drives. Clock's gonna be bleeding.

1055
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:38,000
Speaker 2: And I don't see the Falcons as much of anything.

1056
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 2: I would be shocked if the Falcons get to ten

1057
00:53:43,120 --> 00:53:45,399
Speaker 2: more than ten, I should say so, like I put

1058
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:48,200
Speaker 2: their max at ten, it's probably where they finish, and

1059
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:50,440
Speaker 2: I think the Ravens, I'd be shocked if the Ravens

1060
00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:55,480
Speaker 2: score more than three touchdowns with this offense. Probably a

1061
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:58,600
Speaker 2: lot of field goals, and you know, without some freak

1062
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 2: turnovers flup turnovers, this thing is probably gonna look a

1063
00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:06,640
Speaker 2: lot like those three games that I just mentioned. I'll

1064
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:10,160
Speaker 2: call it Ravens seventeen to ten Final.

1065
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:13,160
Speaker 1: I got something for you. You know you talked about

1066
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:15,400
Speaker 1: you were getting killed by special teams last week. Well

1067
00:54:15,440 --> 00:54:17,319
Speaker 1: I got some special teams. I think it's gonna be

1068
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:21,919
Speaker 1: on your side in this one because Devin Duverney being out,

1069
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:24,520
Speaker 1: he averaged twenty five and a half yards per kickoff

1070
00:54:24,520 --> 00:54:28,040
Speaker 1: return that was second in the NFL. And Justice Hill,

1071
00:54:28,080 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 1: who's conceiving we're gonna take over, averages eighteen point three

1072
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:35,280
Speaker 1: in his career, so that's about a seven yard difference.

1073
00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:40,320
Speaker 1: And then punt returns, Duverney was top five with eleven

1074
00:54:40,320 --> 00:54:43,399
Speaker 1: point nine yards per punt return. The only no one

1075
00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:45,800
Speaker 1: else has returned to punt for the Ravens in two years.

1076
00:54:45,880 --> 00:54:48,279
Speaker 1: Last last guy who did it was James Proche, so

1077
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:50,359
Speaker 1: I'm guessing he would do He's gonna do it again

1078
00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:54,160
Speaker 1: and he averages eight point six, So that's like about

1079
00:54:54,160 --> 00:54:57,160
Speaker 1: three and a half yards different. So yeah, you figure

1080
00:54:57,200 --> 00:54:59,760
Speaker 1: a couple of returns per game. Yeah, it's about twenty

1081
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:02,319
Speaker 1: fifteen twenty yards of field position over the course of

1082
00:55:02,360 --> 00:55:02,640
Speaker 1: the game.

1083
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:05,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I have him as the best return

1084
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:07,319
Speaker 2: of the NFL right now when you consider the entire

1085
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:10,920
Speaker 2: body of work because punt end kick returns also Tucker.

1086
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:13,480
Speaker 2: The Falcons have a good, really good returner as well

1087
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:17,759
Speaker 2: and earn right, but when Tucker plays elite returners, I

1088
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:19,520
Speaker 2: mean he could put it in the end through the

1089
00:55:19,600 --> 00:55:22,400
Speaker 2: end zone ever he wants, or sometimes he like pops

1090
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:24,960
Speaker 2: it up when he wants teams to return so the

1091
00:55:25,040 --> 00:55:28,439
Speaker 2: Ravens can neutralize the Falcons return game. I just don't

1092
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 2: see how it's going to end well for Rinner here.

1093
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:33,840
Speaker 1: I am gonna bet this if I bet you haven't

1094
00:55:33,880 --> 00:55:37,080
Speaker 1: seen it come through yet. It's because a lot of

1095
00:55:37,080 --> 00:55:39,439
Speaker 1: the public is on the over so we might get

1096
00:55:39,760 --> 00:55:42,760
Speaker 1: the hook at some point. Or but going with Carolina

1097
00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 1: Detroit under forty three and a half, seen it at

1098
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:47,480
Speaker 1: forty four at a bunch of spots, and I've even

1099
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:50,200
Speaker 1: seen some forty four and a half earlier, so I'm

1100
00:55:50,239 --> 00:55:53,799
Speaker 1: hoping it gets back to that. But I think both

1101
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:56,360
Speaker 1: of these defenses are a little bit underrated. And of

1102
00:55:56,360 --> 00:56:03,239
Speaker 1: course you have Gared Goff Outdoorsanther's defense is sixth in

1103
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:06,640
Speaker 1: DVOA against the pass since week ten. Always talk about

1104
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:10,000
Speaker 1: how we love j. C. Horn. I think that obviously

1105
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:14,759
Speaker 1: helps against this Lion's offensive suddenly loaded at receiver. But

1106
00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:22,200
Speaker 1: Carolina's sacrate has jumped massively over the past six weeks

1107
00:56:22,320 --> 00:56:23,879
Speaker 1: or so. They have an eight eight and a half

1108
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:26,959
Speaker 1: sack rate since week eight. We know Jared Goff under

1109
00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:29,680
Speaker 1: pressure does not play well. His passer rating drops from

1110
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:33,279
Speaker 1: one thirteen to fifty six from a cleanon pocket to

1111
00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:38,200
Speaker 1: when he is under pressure. And I think that Carolina

1112
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:40,200
Speaker 1: is going to run the ball as they've been doing.

1113
00:56:40,239 --> 00:56:43,480
Speaker 1: They they're calling design runs at you know, half the

1114
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:49,000
Speaker 1: time or more in the Conservatives, right and especially with

1115
00:56:49,080 --> 00:56:52,520
Speaker 1: Darnold too, so they you know they're gonna run the

1116
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:54,120
Speaker 1: ball a lot. You should get a bleeding quack at

1117
00:56:54,200 --> 00:56:57,279
Speaker 1: least on Carolina's side. And you know, I think this

1118
00:56:57,360 --> 00:56:59,799
Speaker 1: is another game where Detroit struggles to score points. I mean,

1119
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:02,520
Speaker 1: I don't think Carolina is quite as good as the

1120
00:57:02,600 --> 00:57:05,480
Speaker 1: Jets defense. But we saw the Jets defense hold Detroit

1121
00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:07,720
Speaker 1: to what ten points you take away the special score

1122
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:09,239
Speaker 1: and even one of those you know, some of those

1123
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:11,799
Speaker 1: points that was like a just a great play call

1124
00:57:11,880 --> 00:57:15,319
Speaker 1: and some bad angles from the Jets defense. I mean

1125
00:57:15,440 --> 00:57:19,200
Speaker 1: they had a backup caliber tight end rumble fifty one

1126
00:57:19,320 --> 00:57:22,280
Speaker 1: yards on fourth and inches, like that's that's an outlier.

1127
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:25,200
Speaker 1: So you could have had the Lions with six points

1128
00:57:25,600 --> 00:57:27,640
Speaker 1: is six points in that game against the Jets. So

1129
00:57:27,760 --> 00:57:30,000
Speaker 1: I'm not saying the panthers of the Jets, but this

1130
00:57:30,160 --> 00:57:35,080
Speaker 1: game is outdoors. The Lions are averaging about ten points

1131
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:38,520
Speaker 1: less outdoors, and you know that's even with some big

1132
00:57:38,560 --> 00:57:41,560
Speaker 1: games coming outdoors. I think they had a big game

1133
00:57:41,600 --> 00:57:44,360
Speaker 1: in Chicago and they courts and points. But uh yeah,

1134
00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:47,040
Speaker 1: this Lions team not as good on not as good

1135
00:57:47,040 --> 00:57:49,960
Speaker 1: outdoors on the road. Carolina runs the ball a lot,

1136
00:57:50,160 --> 00:57:53,720
Speaker 1: and this Lion's defense, remember we talked earlier they were

1137
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:55,520
Speaker 1: one of the worst rundies in the league at one

1138
00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:59,000
Speaker 1: point in the year. Well since Week eight, they're allowing

1139
00:57:59,080 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 1: just three points three three yards per carry the running backs,

1140
00:58:02,320 --> 00:58:05,960
Speaker 1: so they've they've been able to stop the run. And

1141
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:08,720
Speaker 1: that's what Caroline is gonna do. Carolina really has no choice.

1142
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:11,720
Speaker 1: They have DJ Moore and that's really it at receiver.

1143
00:58:11,920 --> 00:58:15,440
Speaker 1: So you know, Detroit, they'll blitz, they'll play man coverage,

1144
00:58:15,440 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 1: just a lot of things that I'm sure Ben McAdoo

1145
00:58:17,720 --> 00:58:19,960
Speaker 1: does not want to see Sam Darnold deal with, though

1146
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:22,480
Speaker 1: he's gonna line up with. They have four tight ends

1147
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:25,760
Speaker 1: active every week, usually gets Carolina. You gonna probably see

1148
00:58:25,800 --> 00:58:27,920
Speaker 1: them use all of them in this game. Let them

1149
00:58:27,920 --> 00:58:30,640
Speaker 1: all upon the line of scrimmage and and just try

1150
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:33,360
Speaker 1: to run the football and probably not be too successful

1151
00:58:33,360 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 1: at it. So give me the under forty three and

1152
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:43,640
Speaker 1: a half in Panthers and Lions. Also, for what it's worth,

1153
00:58:44,160 --> 00:58:47,919
Speaker 1: Sean Hockey been a great underref his entire career forty

1154
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:50,440
Speaker 1: nine to nineteen under fifty nine percent. But when the

1155
00:58:50,480 --> 00:58:52,640
Speaker 1: total when he gets like two of these these kind

1156
00:58:52,680 --> 00:58:57,000
Speaker 1: of middling teams, when the totals under forty five unders

1157
00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:59,920
Speaker 1: are twenty three and five in games that hockey league

1158
00:59:00,200 --> 00:59:02,920
Speaker 1: has a ref. So I haven't dug in fully to

1159
00:59:02,960 --> 00:59:05,440
Speaker 1: the penalty data, but I know it's kind of a

1160
00:59:05,480 --> 00:59:08,840
Speaker 1: little more favorable to the to the defenses, uh than

1161
00:59:08,880 --> 00:59:11,280
Speaker 1: your average ref. So got that working for him as well,

1162
00:59:11,280 --> 00:59:15,320
Speaker 1: and GoF Thunders outdoors Temperabowl forty six and three. So

1163
00:59:15,920 --> 00:59:19,360
Speaker 1: give me the under Panthers Lions. All right, let's jump

1164
00:59:19,360 --> 00:59:20,479
Speaker 1: into our favorite teaser a week.

1165
00:59:21,440 --> 00:59:30,920
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, six point teasers. Don't don't change, don't tease me,

1166
00:59:31,800 --> 00:59:33,040
Speaker 2: try to please.

1167
00:59:38,320 --> 00:59:39,400
Speaker 1: Where are you going this week?

1168
00:59:40,040 --> 00:59:43,200
Speaker 2: Let's keep it really simple here, Saints. I'm gonna go

1169
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:46,840
Speaker 2: with the Saints up. Yeah, plus, so let's call it

1170
00:59:46,880 --> 00:59:48,200
Speaker 2: two and a half up to plus eight and a

1171
00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:52,760
Speaker 2: half and also Raiders from plus two and a half

1172
00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:54,640
Speaker 2: to plus eight and a half. These are very similar

1173
00:59:54,680 --> 00:59:57,160
Speaker 2: games in that you're teasing up from two and a

1174
00:59:57,160 --> 00:59:59,360
Speaker 2: half to eight and a half. Can cover that eight too,

1175
00:59:59,360 --> 01:00:01,840
Speaker 2: which is a little more important now with more teams

1176
01:00:01,880 --> 01:00:05,160
Speaker 2: missing extra points and more teams going for two especially lately.

1177
01:00:05,640 --> 01:00:08,680
Speaker 2: But these totals are both under forty, especially in the

1178
01:00:08,680 --> 01:00:12,080
Speaker 2: Browns game. Now you're at a total thirty two. In

1179
01:00:12,120 --> 01:00:15,720
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh at thirty seven. We have weather low scoring games.

1180
01:00:16,080 --> 01:00:19,240
Speaker 2: I think these are competitive games and every team is

1181
01:00:19,280 --> 01:00:22,000
Speaker 2: like an outside playoff shot. Yeah, I think the Steelers

1182
01:00:22,000 --> 01:00:25,520
Speaker 2: are zero point one percent. But I don't see either

1183
01:00:25,840 --> 01:00:28,360
Speaker 2: any of these teams really getting margin here for what

1184
01:00:28,440 --> 01:00:31,000
Speaker 2: it's worth The Saints Browns game will be really interesting

1185
01:00:31,000 --> 01:00:33,320
Speaker 2: because that's gonna be like forty fifty miles an hour.

1186
01:00:33,680 --> 01:00:36,800
Speaker 2: But they're like it's projected to be down the field.

1187
01:00:37,040 --> 01:00:41,360
Speaker 2: So if you remember that Bill's Patriots game where it's

1188
01:00:41,400 --> 01:00:43,680
Speaker 2: like all the strategy was based on like where you

1189
01:00:43,680 --> 01:00:47,080
Speaker 2: were that quarter. So we'll see how those teams handle it,

1190
01:00:47,160 --> 01:00:50,240
Speaker 2: like because you want to take a time out, maybe

1191
01:00:50,280 --> 01:00:52,520
Speaker 2: the punt it like with in the first quarter, with

1192
01:00:52,520 --> 01:00:55,240
Speaker 2: ten seconds ago in the quarter. Things like that's really interesting.

1193
01:00:55,280 --> 01:00:58,840
Speaker 2: Watch crippling wins here. You're gonna just get tons of runs,

1194
01:00:59,160 --> 01:01:01,600
Speaker 2: but just keep it simple and half and a half

1195
01:01:01,680 --> 01:01:05,400
Speaker 2: on two dogs and totals that are under thirty eight.

1196
01:01:05,880 --> 01:01:07,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going with the Saints as well. Update and

1197
01:01:07,840 --> 01:01:10,960
Speaker 1: a half. Yeah that total was thirty two. I mean

1198
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:14,720
Speaker 1: the Browns. Nick Chubb didn't practice again, so now there

1199
01:01:14,880 --> 01:01:17,560
Speaker 1: is actually a legit question about what's good with him.

1200
01:01:18,040 --> 01:01:20,439
Speaker 1: But you know, this Browns team, they win a game

1201
01:01:20,520 --> 01:01:22,919
Speaker 1: last week. They went, you know a game last week

1202
01:01:22,960 --> 01:01:26,760
Speaker 1: with Deshaun Watson and they scored thirteen points in that game.

1203
01:01:26,800 --> 01:01:30,200
Speaker 1: So this brown we still haven't really seen anything from

1204
01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:34,600
Speaker 1: this Deshaun Watson, Weed Brown's offense outside of the you

1205
01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:37,120
Speaker 1: know that that, I mean they didn't score against the Texas,

1206
01:01:37,160 --> 01:01:39,520
Speaker 1: the defense scored and the special team scored. So I

1207
01:01:40,360 --> 01:01:42,840
Speaker 1: think New Orleans can keep it close here, perhaps even

1208
01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:45,960
Speaker 1: win out right, and I'm gonna go Buffalo down to

1209
01:01:46,280 --> 01:01:48,959
Speaker 1: two and a half year. You know, Chicago is starting

1210
01:01:49,000 --> 01:01:51,640
Speaker 1: to play teams closer. Buffalo isn't winning with margin the

1211
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:54,640
Speaker 1: way they used to kind of last year. But I

1212
01:01:54,640 --> 01:01:57,360
Speaker 1: still think Buffalo takes care of businesses. The Chicago defense,

1213
01:01:57,440 --> 01:02:01,640
Speaker 1: to me, is just it's bad, and I think, you know, stay,

1214
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:03,440
Speaker 1: they kind of kept it close against the Eagles and

1215
01:02:03,560 --> 01:02:07,240
Speaker 1: mentioned the Egles not a great road team, but I

1216
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:09,080
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be I think it's gonna be a

1217
01:02:09,120 --> 01:02:12,760
Speaker 1: little tougher doing now facing another elite team for the

1218
01:02:12,800 --> 01:02:15,280
Speaker 1: second week in row. So I like Buffalo here, but

1219
01:02:15,560 --> 01:02:18,400
Speaker 1: Buffalo just been a little sloppy at times with them

1220
01:02:18,480 --> 01:02:20,360
Speaker 1: with Josh really his whole year, it's been kind of

1221
01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:22,840
Speaker 1: sloppy for them, So I didn't tease them down.

1222
01:02:23,480 --> 01:02:26,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, weather in that game as well. Low total. If

1223
01:02:26,840 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 2: you're looking for other total pieces, like if you want

1224
01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:30,680
Speaker 2: for the Thursday night football, As I mentioned early, don't

1225
01:02:30,720 --> 01:02:33,560
Speaker 2: mind the Ravens going to bring them down just to

1226
01:02:33,600 --> 01:02:36,120
Speaker 2: win the game. I don't mind the Panthers because I

1227
01:02:36,120 --> 01:02:38,240
Speaker 2: agree with you on that under if you wanted to

1228
01:02:38,240 --> 01:02:39,800
Speaker 2: tease the Panthers up from two and a half to

1229
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:41,840
Speaker 2: eight and a half, and then the Rams too, I

1230
01:02:41,840 --> 01:02:43,480
Speaker 2: mean the total thirty six, if you wanted to go

1231
01:02:43,600 --> 01:02:45,400
Speaker 2: up to eight and a half, that wouldn't be bad.

1232
01:02:45,480 --> 01:02:47,640
Speaker 2: There's a lot of good teaser pieces. If you wanted

1233
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:50,160
Speaker 2: to find something else that teas with Thursday Night Football.

1234
01:02:49,960 --> 01:02:52,240
Speaker 1: Box, right, you could tease them down to like one.

1235
01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:54,880
Speaker 2: Teas the box too. Like the Box. Yeah, really like

1236
01:02:54,880 --> 01:02:56,240
Speaker 2: the Bucks too. Teason them from seven and a half

1237
01:02:56,280 --> 01:02:59,360
Speaker 2: down to one and a half with Trace mcsrely.

1238
01:02:59,680 --> 01:03:01,840
Speaker 1: I do like the Bucks pretty much just as much

1239
01:03:01,880 --> 01:03:06,400
Speaker 1: as the Bills and Saints. I probably like the Bucks

1240
01:03:06,440 --> 01:03:09,240
Speaker 1: even a little more than the Saints, just because, you know,

1241
01:03:09,240 --> 01:03:11,080
Speaker 1: I just feel like they're gonna win the game, Whereas

1242
01:03:11,080 --> 01:03:14,200
Speaker 1: like the Saints, you know, something could something silliness could

1243
01:03:14,200 --> 01:03:17,000
Speaker 1: happen and maybe they lose, like ten to nothing or something.

1244
01:03:17,000 --> 01:03:20,200
Speaker 1: Whereas I don't really see the Bucks blowing blowingness, which

1245
01:03:20,360 --> 01:03:22,240
Speaker 1: rangest things have happened. But I do like the season

1246
01:03:22,240 --> 01:03:24,640
Speaker 1: of Bucks down. All right, let's get into our money

1247
01:03:24,680 --> 01:03:26,280
Speaker 1: line underdog parlay.

1248
01:03:29,480 --> 01:03:34,400
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1249
01:03:34,560 --> 01:03:35,880
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

1250
01:03:36,800 --> 01:03:39,640
Speaker 1: All right, Stuck, you're just on fire. What you got

1251
01:03:39,640 --> 01:03:40,320
Speaker 1: for us this week?

1252
01:03:40,440 --> 01:03:41,800
Speaker 2: I'm gonna make a last bit of switch. I was

1253
01:03:41,800 --> 01:03:45,080
Speaker 2: gonna go with Carolina just outdoor golf, Carolina defense, but

1254
01:03:45,720 --> 01:03:48,200
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with you know, with Chubb not practicing

1255
01:03:48,800 --> 01:03:50,480
Speaker 2: watching this on, I'm looking okay, I'm gonna go with

1256
01:03:50,480 --> 01:03:51,960
Speaker 2: the Saints. I think this is closer to a course

1257
01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:53,160
Speaker 2: with my show, a little bit of value in the

1258
01:03:53,160 --> 01:03:56,800
Speaker 2: spread and then throwing the crazy wind and the total.

1259
01:03:57,280 --> 01:04:01,480
Speaker 2: This is just a wild variance game. Like it's like

1260
01:04:01,600 --> 01:04:03,280
Speaker 2: it could depend on like who has the ball where

1261
01:04:03,320 --> 01:04:05,400
Speaker 2: at the end of the first So yeah, happy to

1262
01:04:05,440 --> 01:04:08,840
Speaker 2: take this game of total thirty one. Basically, this is

1263
01:04:08,880 --> 01:04:12,000
Speaker 2: just a coin flip and you're gonna have tons of runs.

1264
01:04:12,320 --> 01:04:14,280
Speaker 2: The same thing vent Rundy that has not been as good,

1265
01:04:14,280 --> 01:04:16,240
Speaker 2: but they're getting healthier the defensive. I was pound out

1266
01:04:16,360 --> 01:04:19,480
Speaker 2: the Browns Runnyca's been bad all year. That could be

1267
01:04:19,600 --> 01:04:22,000
Speaker 2: end up being the difference here. So yeah, give me

1268
01:04:22,000 --> 01:04:24,600
Speaker 2: the Saints on the money line. Ye who By the way,

1269
01:04:24,640 --> 01:04:26,880
Speaker 2: I bet them are our preseager. I bet them to

1270
01:04:26,920 --> 01:04:30,160
Speaker 2: win the division, which somehow still has life if only

1271
01:04:30,200 --> 01:04:33,360
Speaker 2: they didn't blow that game when they're sixteen to three.

1272
01:04:33,680 --> 01:04:35,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have a panther futures, and so I was

1273
01:04:35,720 --> 01:04:38,120
Speaker 1: just as like I could have used them not going

1274
01:04:38,520 --> 01:04:40,800
Speaker 1: I mean game, yeah, but I mean everyone's still alive.

1275
01:04:41,040 --> 01:04:42,960
Speaker 2: Everyone's still alive. No matter what future you have.

1276
01:04:43,480 --> 01:04:48,720
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Rams here at home plus

1277
01:04:48,720 --> 01:04:52,040
Speaker 1: one twenty four against the Broncos. Listen, you know the

1278
01:04:52,040 --> 01:04:55,160
Speaker 1: Broncos finally got to win. It was at home. It

1279
01:04:55,160 --> 01:04:57,080
Speaker 1: came against Trace mcsorry. It came in the game Russell

1280
01:04:57,080 --> 01:05:00,400
Speaker 1: Wilson didn't play. Now Wilson's back. I've just in this

1281
01:05:00,400 --> 01:05:04,240
Speaker 1: movie too many times. Everything's a struggle, like they there

1282
01:05:04,320 --> 01:05:07,080
Speaker 1: probably won't give up more than ten to thirteen points,

1283
01:05:07,080 --> 01:05:09,520
Speaker 1: but they may not score more than ten to thirteen points.

1284
01:05:09,560 --> 01:05:13,160
Speaker 1: And uh, you know Mayfield, obviously, I think it's gonna

1285
01:05:13,320 --> 01:05:16,240
Speaker 1: play a lot better at home like he did in

1286
01:05:16,240 --> 01:05:19,120
Speaker 1: the first meeting, you know, going to Green Bay. I

1287
01:05:19,160 --> 01:05:21,080
Speaker 1: don't think they got two hundred gards their offense last

1288
01:05:21,400 --> 01:05:23,560
Speaker 1: and that Monday night game, so it was not pretty,

1289
01:05:23,600 --> 01:05:26,080
Speaker 1: but if there's any team the Rams can beat, it's

1290
01:05:26,120 --> 01:05:28,880
Speaker 1: a team like this because like their defense is kind

1291
01:05:28,880 --> 01:05:30,280
Speaker 1: of wasted. It's like, what are you gonna do, Like

1292
01:05:30,360 --> 01:05:32,160
Speaker 1: hold the Rams to fewer points than they were already

1293
01:05:32,160 --> 01:05:34,360
Speaker 1: gonna score. If they weren't, they're already not gonna score

1294
01:05:34,440 --> 01:05:36,760
Speaker 1: more than like, you know, ten, thirteen, seventeen points anyway,

1295
01:05:37,080 --> 01:05:41,240
Speaker 1: So ken de Broncos score more. Maybe maybe not. Sometimes

1296
01:05:41,240 --> 01:05:43,080
Speaker 1: they do, sometimes they don't, but it's gonna get a

1297
01:05:43,120 --> 01:05:45,400
Speaker 1: real tense if they have a couple of you know,

1298
01:05:45,480 --> 01:05:48,919
Speaker 1: three and outs or punts with Russell Wilson, there's there's

1299
01:05:48,960 --> 01:05:51,320
Speaker 1: still still that tension on the sidelines. I think the

1300
01:05:51,400 --> 01:05:53,960
Speaker 1: Rams could pull off another another miracle, kind of like

1301
01:05:54,000 --> 01:05:56,200
Speaker 1: they did at the end with the Raiders. That a

1302
01:05:56,280 --> 01:05:58,360
Speaker 1: game I happened to witness a live, So give me

1303
01:05:58,400 --> 01:05:59,040
Speaker 1: the Rams.

1304
01:05:59,600 --> 01:06:01,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna disagree with this one, but I mean

1305
01:06:01,440 --> 01:06:03,920
Speaker 2: the actuldar fault Eve just taking the dog against the

1306
01:06:03,920 --> 01:06:06,160
Speaker 2: Broncos on the road. But what I think this comes

1307
01:06:06,200 --> 01:06:08,800
Speaker 2: down to is like the Rems cannot run the ball.

1308
01:06:09,040 --> 01:06:10,800
Speaker 2: These two tas are really similar in that, like you

1309
01:06:10,880 --> 01:06:14,800
Speaker 2: have quarterbacks who've been inept, they are offensive lines that

1310
01:06:14,800 --> 01:06:17,560
Speaker 2: are just decimated by injury. All receivers that have been

1311
01:06:17,560 --> 01:06:20,200
Speaker 2: decimated by injury, but like the Broncos, at least you

1312
01:06:20,240 --> 01:06:22,880
Speaker 2: have Judy and you can run the ball a little

1313
01:06:22,920 --> 01:06:25,160
Speaker 2: bit and then you have an elite defense. The Rams

1314
01:06:25,200 --> 01:06:29,840
Speaker 2: defense now without Donald it's just average. But the Broncos

1315
01:06:29,880 --> 01:06:32,520
Speaker 2: pass d is so good. I think they're number one

1316
01:06:32,560 --> 01:06:35,840
Speaker 2: now probably assuming DBOA and DPA per play, they can

1317
01:06:35,920 --> 01:06:37,840
Speaker 2: be run on a little bit. But that's why I

1318
01:06:37,920 --> 01:06:40,960
Speaker 2: was on the Rams team total under last week, which

1319
01:06:41,000 --> 01:06:43,520
Speaker 2: I wrote up for Action, is that the Rems can't

1320
01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:45,600
Speaker 2: run the ball, so like if they go up against

1321
01:06:45,640 --> 01:06:47,720
Speaker 2: a really good passy like they did against the Packers,

1322
01:06:47,720 --> 01:06:51,240
Speaker 2: like Baker Mayfield is awful, and he's playing behind an

1323
01:06:51,240 --> 01:06:53,560
Speaker 2: offensive line that also probably you probably don't have your

1324
01:06:53,600 --> 01:06:56,320
Speaker 2: center now. Brian Allen got hurt another injury. He got

1325
01:06:56,400 --> 01:06:59,160
Speaker 2: hurt last week, and like your number one receivers like

1326
01:06:59,280 --> 01:07:03,800
Speaker 2: Van Jefferson, right, I mean so, like even Baker Rayfield

1327
01:07:03,920 --> 01:07:07,000
Speaker 2: was bad and now he's playing with like there's be

1328
01:07:07,000 --> 01:07:10,120
Speaker 2: no home field advantage here. It's what Christmas Day for

1329
01:07:10,360 --> 01:07:13,439
Speaker 2: a corpse team. There's gonna be no one here. Yeah,

1330
01:07:13,440 --> 01:07:15,640
Speaker 2: I actually might bet the Broncos, but this is also

1331
01:07:15,680 --> 01:07:17,040
Speaker 2: just the fate of the Rams for me. I know,

1332
01:07:17,200 --> 01:07:19,680
Speaker 2: I couldn't get behind the Rams right now in Baker Mayfield.

1333
01:07:20,000 --> 01:07:22,280
Speaker 1: I mean maybe maybe it's that witnessing alive. You know,

1334
01:07:22,280 --> 01:07:25,600
Speaker 1: you gotta see Baker Bake. Got to see him Bake

1335
01:07:25,640 --> 01:07:30,160
Speaker 1: up close and personal. Bro, it's life changing. That's going

1336
01:07:30,200 --> 01:07:34,120
Speaker 1: to wrap our money line. Doug so Saints around what

1337
01:07:34,400 --> 01:07:37,320
Speaker 1: under plus one thirty with the Rams around the same,

1338
01:07:37,680 --> 01:07:40,040
Speaker 1: it's about four actual, You get about about four hundred

1339
01:07:40,040 --> 01:07:45,600
Speaker 1: on one bet. All right, get into the best of

1340
01:07:45,640 --> 01:07:47,680
Speaker 1: the rest, which are games we haven't covered in any

1341
01:07:47,680 --> 01:07:51,840
Speaker 1: other segment, but are still, as they say, meaningful to some.

1342
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:55,600
Speaker 4: That's gonna be a touchdown, but that may be meaningful

1343
01:07:55,640 --> 01:07:56,120
Speaker 4: to some of.

1344
01:07:56,080 --> 01:07:59,400
Speaker 1: You, you know what I mean. I first hope we

1345
01:07:59,480 --> 01:08:04,360
Speaker 1: got satto at the Chiefs. Chiefs favored by ten, the

1346
01:08:04,760 --> 01:08:07,840
Speaker 1: total is forty eight and a half. I don't mind

1347
01:08:08,760 --> 01:08:14,440
Speaker 1: Seattle here. The Chiefs with my homes since November twenty

1348
01:08:14,480 --> 01:08:16,799
Speaker 1: twenty are just eight and twenty four against the spread

1349
01:08:16,880 --> 01:08:19,200
Speaker 1: when they are favored by more than a field goal.

1350
01:08:20,360 --> 01:08:22,680
Speaker 1: Don't love the fact that Tyler Lockett is going to

1351
01:08:22,720 --> 01:08:24,120
Speaker 1: be out though, I mean, he was just such an

1352
01:08:24,120 --> 01:08:26,639
Speaker 1: important part of that offense, and you know, would really

1353
01:08:26,640 --> 01:08:28,640
Speaker 1: help if they needed a backdoor cover or just to

1354
01:08:28,680 --> 01:08:31,680
Speaker 1: kind of hang close and score points, which you're going

1355
01:08:31,760 --> 01:08:34,120
Speaker 1: to have to do against the Chiefs. So that's the

1356
01:08:34,160 --> 01:08:36,720
Speaker 1: only reason I didn't end up making it into my

1357
01:08:37,400 --> 01:08:39,200
Speaker 1: pick of six pack picks.

1358
01:08:39,439 --> 01:08:42,400
Speaker 2: But what do you think, Yeah, I would lead in Seahawks. Well,

1359
01:08:42,479 --> 01:08:45,040
Speaker 2: she just don't cover these big spreads. I would lean under. Also,

1360
01:08:45,880 --> 01:08:48,320
Speaker 2: this is you know at home, the chief letters have

1361
01:08:48,320 --> 01:08:52,400
Speaker 2: been money with read when they're fit favorites of seven

1362
01:08:52,439 --> 01:08:55,879
Speaker 2: plus and like you mentioned, they've been bad. Like Seattle

1363
01:08:55,920 --> 01:08:59,479
Speaker 2: wants to establish the run and they want to stop

1364
01:08:59,520 --> 01:09:02,080
Speaker 2: the run. That not been good at if you've just

1365
01:09:02,120 --> 01:09:04,200
Speaker 2: been getting torch on the ground. But that's okay if

1366
01:09:04,200 --> 01:09:07,400
Speaker 2: that happens against Kansas City. And you know, if there

1367
01:09:07,479 --> 01:09:09,639
Speaker 2: is a strength of the Seattle defense, it's their past y.

1368
01:09:10,320 --> 01:09:12,680
Speaker 2: And I think that Seattle can get their running game

1369
01:09:12,720 --> 01:09:14,360
Speaker 2: going a little bit, no matter who it is against

1370
01:09:14,439 --> 01:09:20,519
Speaker 2: Kansas City's run by and that'll help Gino a little bit.

1371
01:09:20,880 --> 01:09:23,040
Speaker 2: But not having locket hurts, but most willing to help

1372
01:09:23,080 --> 01:09:25,519
Speaker 2: the clock run keep them in the game. It's a

1373
01:09:25,520 --> 01:09:27,679
Speaker 2: big number. Chiefs had not been covering these big numbers.

1374
01:09:27,680 --> 01:09:30,480
Speaker 2: I mean, the last couple of weeks it's the Broncos

1375
01:09:30,520 --> 01:09:33,479
Speaker 2: the Texans, So yeah, I think it's I think it's

1376
01:09:33,479 --> 01:09:35,280
Speaker 2: Seattle or nothing. But this is a pass for me.

1377
01:09:35,960 --> 01:09:39,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, just I think the Lockett. The Lockett injury does

1378
01:09:39,360 --> 01:09:43,160
Speaker 1: hurt because it's like you want to have a football

1379
01:09:43,200 --> 01:09:46,360
Speaker 1: reason of like, okay, yeah we want yeah, no that

1380
01:09:46,400 --> 01:09:49,120
Speaker 1: shefs don't cover, but like you still want to be

1381
01:09:49,160 --> 01:09:51,960
Speaker 1: confident in Seattle, and this could be where the gig

1382
01:09:52,040 --> 01:09:53,120
Speaker 1: is kind of up for I mean it's kind of

1383
01:09:53,160 --> 01:09:54,479
Speaker 1: an ending. I mean, what do they lose to the

1384
01:09:54,560 --> 01:09:56,120
Speaker 1: Raiders and the Panthers, So the gig has kind of

1385
01:09:56,120 --> 01:09:58,680
Speaker 1: been up for Seattle. But you know, this could be

1386
01:09:59,040 --> 01:10:00,960
Speaker 1: one of those games where chiefs say, Okay, you know what,

1387
01:10:01,040 --> 01:10:04,360
Speaker 1: let's blow them out and yeah, maybe Mahomes doesn't throw

1388
01:10:04,360 --> 01:10:07,280
Speaker 1: like five red zone picks, so yeah, don't love it.

1389
01:10:07,640 --> 01:10:07,960
Speaker 5: Uh.

1390
01:10:08,200 --> 01:10:12,280
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Arizona the Bucks up to seven and a

1391
01:10:12,320 --> 01:10:14,360
Speaker 1: half point favorites total thirty nine and a half. We

1392
01:10:14,400 --> 01:10:15,800
Speaker 1: talked about this one.

1393
01:10:15,640 --> 01:10:19,240
Speaker 2: The cheezer piece, Bunny one piece. This is the Cardinals

1394
01:10:19,280 --> 01:10:22,840
Speaker 2: are a corpse. It's the Cardinals are always a corpse

1395
01:10:22,880 --> 01:10:25,559
Speaker 2: this time of the year. With Cliff Kingsbury second half

1396
01:10:25,560 --> 01:10:29,200
Speaker 2: of the season, also at home, especially this year, you're

1397
01:10:29,200 --> 01:10:32,080
Speaker 2: down to Trace mcstory at quarterback. I think they're down

1398
01:10:32,120 --> 01:10:35,439
Speaker 2: all their corners. Their offensive line is ravaged by injuries.

1399
01:10:37,439 --> 01:10:40,320
Speaker 2: They don't have any position coaches left, like their position

1400
01:10:40,400 --> 01:10:43,639
Speaker 2: coaches have all been fired, were let go for various reasons.

1401
01:10:43,720 --> 01:10:47,400
Speaker 2: It's it's a disaster. What's going on in Arizona. I'm

1402
01:10:47,400 --> 01:10:49,519
Speaker 2: so happy on our last preview pot we added that

1403
01:10:49,640 --> 01:10:52,559
Speaker 2: under together. Remember that win total under?

1404
01:10:52,640 --> 01:10:55,160
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, that was that. Yeah, that's definitely said.

1405
01:10:55,560 --> 01:10:58,360
Speaker 1: I think yeah, like, uh did end up missing, Like

1406
01:10:58,479 --> 01:10:59,720
Speaker 1: didn't get to put a lot of them in the

1407
01:10:59,720 --> 01:11:02,200
Speaker 1: app The two I put in are that under and

1408
01:11:02,280 --> 01:11:04,519
Speaker 1: Philly to win the eat the division. So my futures

1409
01:11:04,520 --> 01:11:06,840
Speaker 1: are looking pretty good this year in the appen.

1410
01:11:06,640 --> 01:11:09,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, mine looking really good now that Jacksonville might win

1411
01:11:09,439 --> 01:11:13,720
Speaker 2: the division Tennessee that Tennessee could go under. It looks

1412
01:11:13,760 --> 01:11:16,640
Speaker 2: like they should, I mean they should so yeah. This

1413
01:11:16,800 --> 01:11:20,599
Speaker 2: cheeseer piece morning on piece. That's it this game. This

1414
01:11:20,640 --> 01:11:21,960
Speaker 2: is on Christmas, the.

1415
01:11:22,000 --> 01:11:24,559
Speaker 1: Last night game I believe too. Since Sunday eight game.

1416
01:11:24,520 --> 01:11:28,679
Speaker 5: Like Tampa, Arizona was supposed to have real meaning Denver Rams.

1417
01:11:28,800 --> 01:11:31,880
Speaker 5: The Broncos Rams are supposed to have real meaning Packers Dolphins.

1418
01:11:31,880 --> 01:11:34,479
Speaker 5: That's the only one. Thank god the Packers have won recently.

1419
01:11:34,560 --> 01:11:38,360
Speaker 5: Otherwise this Christmas slate would have been of I just

1420
01:11:38,720 --> 01:11:39,680
Speaker 5: the disaster.

1421
01:11:40,160 --> 01:11:42,840
Speaker 1: There should be some prop opportunities with this Cardinal team.

1422
01:11:43,680 --> 01:11:46,519
Speaker 1: And I actually wouldn't at the under on the total

1423
01:11:46,560 --> 01:11:48,720
Speaker 1: in this game because I could see this is like

1424
01:11:49,120 --> 01:11:51,960
Speaker 1: finally the get right spot for the Bucks offense, you know,

1425
01:11:52,080 --> 01:11:54,840
Speaker 1: like like winning like forty one or something like that,

1426
01:11:55,040 --> 01:11:57,400
Speaker 1: and you know the total still goes over. I also

1427
01:11:57,400 --> 01:12:00,400
Speaker 1: think this could be a Rashod White breakout game here.

1428
01:12:00,479 --> 01:12:03,400
Speaker 1: They might actually, you know, be able to run at

1429
01:12:03,400 --> 01:12:05,040
Speaker 1: some point in the game. It seems like every game

1430
01:12:05,360 --> 01:12:07,240
Speaker 1: they're in some type of two minute drive near the end.

1431
01:12:07,280 --> 01:12:09,479
Speaker 1: And Brady's throwing forty forty five passes, so.

1432
01:12:09,560 --> 01:12:12,000
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, especially the Cardinals secondary is all bagged up.

1433
01:12:12,360 --> 01:12:14,240
Speaker 2: It's a it's a mess, all right.

1434
01:12:14,640 --> 01:12:18,000
Speaker 1: That's going to do it for the Week sixteen. Action

1435
01:12:18,360 --> 01:12:24,080
Speaker 1: Network Podcast presented by Fandle. But hope everyone out there

1436
01:12:24,200 --> 01:12:27,360
Speaker 1: has a happy and safe holiday.

1437
01:12:27,800 --> 01:12:30,280
Speaker 3: Hey Chris, this is producer Matt jumping in real quick.

1438
01:12:30,880 --> 01:12:33,559
Speaker 3: Just want to thank all of our listeners for joining

1439
01:12:33,640 --> 01:12:37,400
Speaker 3: us and whether you're betting with your family, betting to

1440
01:12:37,680 --> 01:12:40,920
Speaker 3: escape your family, or if your bets are your family,

1441
01:12:41,120 --> 01:12:43,519
Speaker 3: we appreciate you spending a little bit of your holiday

1442
01:12:43,560 --> 01:12:46,800
Speaker 3: season with us here at the Action Network Podcast, and

1443
01:12:46,840 --> 01:12:49,559
Speaker 3: we want to wish all of you a very happy,

1444
01:12:49,800 --> 01:12:55,400
Speaker 3: very prosperous, and very safe holiday week, even you Cliff Kingsbury,

1445
01:12:55,880 --> 01:12:57,240
Speaker 3: you rat bastard.

1446
01:12:57,760 --> 01:13:00,639
Speaker 1: Be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com and download

1447
01:13:00,680 --> 01:13:03,679
Speaker 1: the free, award winning Action Network app. You can follow

1448
01:13:03,680 --> 01:13:06,559
Speaker 1: Stucky act Stucky two on the app, and you can

1449
01:13:06,600 --> 01:13:10,120
Speaker 1: follow me Actress Raybon and see all of our picks

1450
01:13:10,120 --> 01:13:13,000
Speaker 1: as well as track your own. And we'll be back

1451
01:13:13,120 --> 01:13:15,120
Speaker 1: next week. Let's get this money go.

1452
01:13:15,240 --> 01:13:15,479
Speaker 2: Rid of.

1453
01:13:27,080 --> 01:13:31,479
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1454
01:13:31,520 --> 01:13:34,200
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1455
01:13:34,240 --> 01:13:37,280
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler