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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you Welcome into the first of the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty six college basketball season episode of our weekly College

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Speaker 2: Basketball Picks podcast. My name is Matt Perelt. Now normally

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Speaker 2: you guys see me on other betting pro shows, including

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast. If you've never seen them before.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for tuning in for the first time this program.

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Speaker 2: This show will come out on Tuesday midday most Tuesdays

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Speaker 2: for the rest of the college basketball season, not next

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Speaker 2: week because I have a pre planned vacation, but we're

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Speaker 2: starting it today. We'll be off next week and then

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Speaker 2: back for the rest of the college basketball season, taking

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Speaker 2: you all the way to the National Championship and the

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Speaker 2: Final Four. So quick background on me, if you guys

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Speaker 2: haven't actually heard or seen me before, I've been with

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Speaker 2: betting pros in July of twenty twenty hosting the Daily

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Speaker 2: Juice podcast. I've been doing a variety of things with

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Speaker 2: betting pros over the last six years. But I am

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Speaker 2: a twenty five year sports talk radio personality, sports gambling

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Speaker 2: content creator. For the last seven or eight years in

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Speaker 2: the full time rain right before COVID hit and then

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Speaker 2: got going into the full time rank. We've done The

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Speaker 2: Daily Juice, which is every single day for three hundred

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Speaker 2: and sixty five days now since July of twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: Now we're branching out here to bring you college basketball

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Speaker 2: picks and plays. I know a lot of you are

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Speaker 2: coming over from the Daily Juice. So here are plays

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Speaker 2: for today, three of them that we've got going on,

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Speaker 2: including a hard rock bed of the day that I'm

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Speaker 2: going to give you guys coming up here. So these

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Speaker 2: lines are as of taping, so things do move. Lines

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Speaker 2: do move during the day, So hopefully you're going to

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Speaker 2: get the same lines that I got before we started

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Speaker 2: recording this. But that's how it goes. I know some people,

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Speaker 2: you guys need to get used to that. But when

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Speaker 2: this drops, those are the numbers that I have jumped

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Speaker 2: in on and played. If you are coming over from

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice, remember these plays do not count on

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Speaker 2: the record for the Daily Juice. We're starting its own situation,

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Speaker 2: its own podcast here for us today on this Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: the seventeenth of February. So where are we in college basketball? Well,

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Speaker 2: it's a very different type of year. We have blue bloods,

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Speaker 2: but not the normal blue bloods. Michigan Purdue Big Ten powers.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of talent in the Big Ten Conference.

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Speaker 2: Nebraska has been somewhat of a surprise. They play Iowa today.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot going on in the SEC where we

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Speaker 2: thought Florida was going to be really one of the

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Speaker 2: elite teams, and they have been very much up and down.

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Speaker 2: Alabama has shown some signs of being a team that

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Speaker 2: maybe coming up in March that we're going to watch.

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Speaker 2: Auburn has been a team at times that has shown

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Speaker 2: some prowess. Kentucky, my gosh, where are they? They're all

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Speaker 2: over the place right now with coach Pope as they

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Speaker 2: go forward, So don't know what to make of that.

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Speaker 2: How about the mid majors. Miami plays at UMass my

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Speaker 2: a La Mater coming up here today. They're twenty five

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Speaker 2: and oh, could a team that goes and loses in

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Speaker 2: the conference tournament be left out? If the MAC is

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Speaker 2: not won by Miami, could Miami wind up being left

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Speaker 2: out of the tournament. That's a big question going on

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Speaker 2: right now. What do you make of some of the

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Speaker 2: mid majors. We'll talk about Saint Louis in their game

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Speaker 2: against Rhode Island coming up here today. So that's a

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Speaker 2: play I'm gonna talk about. So there are a ton

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Speaker 2: of things and we will go through the college basketball

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Speaker 2: season together for the rest of the year. We'll watch this,

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Speaker 2: we'll give you picks, plays and thoughts as we head

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Speaker 2: towards the conference tournaments. But this is the crunch time.

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Speaker 2: This is when things really get going here in college basketball.

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Speaker 2: So very exciting times. Good to be here and thank

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Speaker 2: you for watching. So let's talk quickly about some business

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Speaker 2: for you guys. Have you guys downloaded the Betting pros

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Speaker 2: and jump in with that.

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Speaker 1: There it is. I was looking for the right slide.

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Speaker 2: dot Com slash Juice twenty. Okay, let's start with what's

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Speaker 2: going to happen here in the game of the day.

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Speaker 2: It is Purdue, it is Michigan. This is going to

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Speaker 2: be a really fun basketball game, and I'm psyched to

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Speaker 2: watch it. And look, I think there are some games

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Speaker 2: that are great measuring stick games, and I think this

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Speaker 2: is one of them, the Boilermakers. You start looking at

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Speaker 2: some of these numbers here for adjusted tempo for these

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Speaker 2: two teams, and there's a lot to like about what

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Speaker 2: these two teams will do. Purdue is second in the

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Speaker 2: country and are going to kempom for adjusted offensive tempo,

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Speaker 2: and Michigan is not that far right behind them. I

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Speaker 2: think these numbers are a little bit depressed at the

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Speaker 2: moment here because of what Michigan and Purdue, who they

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Speaker 2: have played recently.

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Speaker 1: So You've got an Iowa.

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Speaker 2: Team for Purdue where it was one forty two and

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Speaker 2: a half and the game went under by seven and

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Speaker 2: a half points. You have a UCLA team for Michigan

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Speaker 2: the number was one fifty five and a half and

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Speaker 2: the game went under by thirteen and a half points.

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Speaker 2: Both UCLA and Iowa do not play up tempo. However,

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Speaker 2: in the last road game for Michigan against Northwestern, it

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Speaker 2: was one fifty four from a total perspective, game went

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Speaker 2: over by eight points. Against Ohio State, the game went

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Speaker 2: under by eighteen and a half points, but the Michigan

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Speaker 2: State game went over at one fifty and a half.

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Speaker 1: The last two, the last home.

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Speaker 2: Game against Oregon and against Well. Against Oregon it was

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Speaker 2: one forty three and a half the game went under

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Speaker 2: by eleven and a half points for Purdue, but then

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Speaker 2: against Illinois it was one fifty four and a half

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Speaker 2: and the game went over by fifteen and a half points.

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Speaker 2: Michigan is favored in this game. And while I do

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Speaker 2: think Michigan should win this game, I'm not jumping up

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Speaker 2: and down at Michigan here. I think Michigan do they

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Speaker 2: cover two and a half. I'm not exactly sure of this,

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Speaker 2: but we do know that possession length. Michigan wants to push.

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Speaker 2: They really want to get to the shot quickly. Their

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Speaker 2: you know, average possession length of fifteen seconds is seventh

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Speaker 2: in the country. Purdue is a little bit slower at

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Speaker 2: two fifty eight, but they do look to push tempo.

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Speaker 2: This is the number one or sorry, number one adjusted

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Speaker 2: defensive team in Michigan and the number two offensive adjusted

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Speaker 2: efficiency team in Purdue. This is the number two team

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Speaker 2: in effective field goal percentage defensively for Michigan and the

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Speaker 2: number thirteen effective offensive field goal percentage team in perdue

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Speaker 2: Michigan's offense. On the flip side, their offensive efficiency fourth,

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Speaker 2: their offensive effective field goal percentage seventh. They are second

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Speaker 2: in the country in two point shooting sixty three percent.

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Speaker 2: They do take their threes, but they get half their

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Speaker 2: points from inside the arc, which is good for overs

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Speaker 2: because we get a team that can hit their shots,

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Speaker 2: and they're highly efficient with the shots they take, and

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Speaker 2: they take quick shots, so we're going with an opportunity

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Speaker 2: to score and score quickly here from Michigan. Michigan is

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Speaker 2: seven and five to the under on the road this year,

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Speaker 2: and they're nine and six to the under in the

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Speaker 2: Big Ten, while Purdue is seven and seven but they're

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Speaker 2: eight and five to the over at home. And I

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Speaker 2: think tempo really does dictate here who we're playing and

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Speaker 2: how we're going to play. I think Michigan in Purdue,

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Speaker 2: this number opened up at one fifty one and a

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Speaker 2: half and it's been straight bet to the over. I

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Speaker 2: know I'm probably getting a worse number than what we

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Speaker 2: should have gotten involved with, but I think this number

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Speaker 2: at one fifty seven, I think we get this here.

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Speaker 1: I think these numbers wind up. I think we go

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Speaker 1: over here.

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Speaker 2: Then we get into the one sixties between Michigan and Purdue.

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Speaker 2: I think Michigan wins. But I like tempo in this game.

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Speaker 2: I like speeding this game, and I think the steam

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Speaker 2: is correct. I think the number was way too low

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Speaker 2: because of the recency bias for both Purdue and Michigan

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Speaker 2: as to who they have played. Now they get a

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Speaker 2: dance partner, and now we get to go up tempo

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Speaker 2: and have a really fun basketball game. We're going over

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Speaker 2: one fifty seven for Michigan and Purdue here today in

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Speaker 2: the Big Ten. Let's talk a little Saint Louis basketball

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Speaker 2: and slew as they're fund they called is a team

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Speaker 2: that might be looking at a bubble situation that they

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Speaker 2: don't really love. Now they should be in the tournaments,

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Speaker 2: but they have to finish strong. They're probably going to

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Speaker 2: be six, seven, eight, somewhere in that range if they

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Speaker 2: don't win the A ten. They are two and zero

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Speaker 2: with their Quad one records. They have no Quad one

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Speaker 2: opportunities ahead of them unless they get les VCU can

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Speaker 2: stay in the top.

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Speaker 1: Fifty and they meet in the A ten tournament.

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Speaker 2: You know, Stanford Saint Louis is twenty five and oh

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Speaker 2: they're twenty four and one. They have the second best

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Speaker 2: effective field goal percentage in the country. They have the

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Speaker 2: best effective field goal percentage defense in the country. This

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Speaker 2: is a very good basketball team that people are finding

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Speaker 2: out about. Kenpom has the list at twenty third in

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Speaker 2: the country. And here they are on the road against

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Speaker 2: Rhode Island as ten point favorites. Here, Rhode Island is

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Speaker 2: a turnover machine. Rhode Island is a team that can't

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Speaker 2: hit a three to save their life. They're three hundred

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Speaker 2: and tenth and three point shooting now. They're decent inside

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Speaker 2: the arc. They're sixty firsts with two point shooting. But

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Speaker 2: we're talking about one of the best offensively effective teams

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Speaker 2: in the entire country who bombs threes. Saint Louis hits

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Speaker 2: forty one point five percent of their three point shots,

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Speaker 2: that's second best in the country. They hit sixty percent

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Speaker 2: of their two point shots, that's ninth best in the country.

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Speaker 2: And we talked about their effective field goal percentage. Defensively,

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Speaker 2: Saint Louis is number one in that category. They're the

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Speaker 2: number one effective field goal percentage team and they are

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Speaker 2: number two in offensive effective field goal percentage. They do

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Speaker 2: it all.

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Speaker 1: They're the best.

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Speaker 2: Team right now in the A ten in my mind,

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Speaker 2: and they're a team that you have to look at

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Speaker 2: going forward as they hit the tournament. Nobody is going

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Speaker 2: to want to see this team. No one's gonna want

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Speaker 2: to see Saint Louis with the way that they have

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Speaker 2: been playing. They've won eighteen consecutive games. That's the second

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Speaker 2: largest longest streak in college basketball at the moment. They're

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Speaker 2: just crushing people like they're not just beating people, they're

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Speaker 2: crushing people and it's a lot of fun to watch

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Speaker 2: them play because they are so efficient both on offense

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Speaker 2: and defense.

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Speaker 1: Saint Louis on the.

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Speaker 2: Road this year, obviously, they've been tremendous from a straight

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Speaker 2: up perspective. They're eight and one on the road, the

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Speaker 2: only loss to Stanford, But you know, they beat Layla

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Speaker 2: Chicago by twenty seven, they beat Lesal by twenty four,

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Speaker 2: they beat Davenson by nine, they beat Dayton by thirty one.

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Speaker 2: The number is ten, and we've got a Ryland team

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Speaker 2: that I just don't think is that good. I don't

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Speaker 2: think they're going to be able to handle and I

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Speaker 2: don't think per Saint Louis can take the foot off

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Speaker 2: the gas at all.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 2: They're fifteen seven and two ats, they're eight three and

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Speaker 2: one in the A ten ats Yes, and they got

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Speaker 2: a team in Rhode Island. This loss back to back

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Speaker 2: games against George Washington and against Fordham. These are games

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Speaker 2: where the public and people start watching you. We've hit February.

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Speaker 2: What will Saint Louis look like? They cannot rest? This

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Speaker 2: number has come down a bit, It opened up a

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Speaker 2: ten and a half, it's been bet down to ten.

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Speaker 2: Kempom has it as a ten point win for Saint Louis.

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Speaker 2: I think SLU goes in there and puts up a

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Speaker 2: number here. They can't take their foot off the gas.

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Speaker 2: I like Saint Louis lay the ten points with Saint Louis.

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Speaker 2: I know it's double digits, but I like them to

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Speaker 2: make a statement here on the road against Rhode Island.

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Speaker 2: So we're going over one point fifty seven for Michigan

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Speaker 2: and Purdue Saint Louis minus ten. That takes us to

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Speaker 2: our hard Rock bet of the day. If you guys

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Speaker 2: don't know, hard Rock sponsors pretty much everything we do

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Speaker 2: here on betting pros, and they know they're hoops. They

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Speaker 2: are the partner of both the Orlando Magic and the

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Speaker 2: Miami Heat in the NBA. They've got tons of options

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Speaker 2: here for college basketball heads that you want to take

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Speaker 2: a look at. This is the only book available in Florida,

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Speaker 2: But if you are in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado,

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Speaker 2: and Michigan, the hard Rock Bet app is available to

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Speaker 2: you hard Rock Bet with new promos offering daily. So

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Speaker 2: go and download the hard Rock Bet app and make

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Speaker 2: your first deposit. Today, let's talk North Carolina and North

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Speaker 2: Carolina State.

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Speaker 1: So I've been burned here.

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Speaker 2: I was riding the North Carolina overs for I don't

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Speaker 2: know a bit, and the last two times I've bet it,

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Speaker 2: I've been burned. I'm going to go back to the

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Speaker 2: well for a third time here NC State. It's an

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Speaker 2: eighty one seventy eight loss. According to Ken Pom, it's

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Speaker 2: a six point number. So maybe you take Carolina plus

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Speaker 2: the points. That's not a horrible.

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Speaker 1: Idea to do that.

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Speaker 2: But we're talking about two teams that look to push tempo.

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Speaker 2: We're talking about two teams that want to run, and

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Speaker 2: I think with adjusted offensive efficiency you've got an opportunity

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Speaker 2: here with NC State at twenty one in North Carolina

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Speaker 2: at twenty four, much like the Purdue in Michigan game.

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Speaker 2: Michigan game. We talked about these are about dance partners.

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Speaker 2: We've got dance partners here. We got a chance to

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Speaker 2: watch these guys go up and down the court together.

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Speaker 2: And I think Carolina the last three games going under

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Speaker 2: has spooked betters when it comes to the total, we've

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Speaker 2: gone too high. But Carolina is still six and four

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Speaker 2: to the over on the road this year. They're still

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Speaker 2: eight and four to the over in the ACC. And

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Speaker 2: NC State is nine and four to the over in

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Speaker 2: the ACC. And while they're seven and six at home

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Speaker 2: this year, their last game against VA Tech went over

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Speaker 2: by three points. Their last game before that against Syracuse

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Speaker 2: went over by four and a half points. So they've

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Speaker 2: gone over in what in four of the last five

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Speaker 2: and eight of the last ten games for NC State,

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Speaker 2: they've gone over. The last three games Duke, Miami, and

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Speaker 2: Pitt have all gone under for North Carolina.

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Speaker 1: I think maybe it's.

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Speaker 2: Just a rut, and now they get a chance to

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Speaker 2: bust out of this rut, and we have a chance

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Speaker 2: to get a kind of a depressed number where we've

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Speaker 2: seen these totals be a lot at some point higher here,

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Speaker 2: even for NC State, where the Louisville game two games

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Speaker 2: ago was one sixty one and a half. Last game

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Speaker 2: against Miami was one fifty eight. SMU was one fifty.

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Speaker 1: Nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: We get a lower number here for NC State and

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Speaker 2: North Carolina because of what's happened recent recently, So there's

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Speaker 2: some recency bias. I think that comes into this maybe

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Speaker 2: the third time I get burned again. But I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: go ahead and jump in here, and I like the

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Speaker 2: over over one fifty eight and a half for North

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Speaker 2: Carolina and North Carolina State. Here. I think we get tempo.

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Speaker 2: I think we run up and down. We're going over

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Speaker 2: one fifty eight and a half for the hard rup

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Speaker 2: bet of the day for North Carolina and North Carolina States.

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Speaker 2: So for our plays here today, we are taking over

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Speaker 2: one fifty seven Michigan and Purdue. We're laying the ten

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Speaker 2: with Saint Louis on the road against Rhode Island, and

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Speaker 2: we're going with the over one fifty eight and a

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Speaker 2: half for North Carolina and North Carolina State. Let's get

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Speaker 2: off to a good start. I don't normally bet favorites

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Speaker 2: and overs. This is a little bit of a unique

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Speaker 2: card for me. Normally I like dogs and unders. Excuse me,

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Speaker 2: but you know, the cards are what the cards are,

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Speaker 2: The plays are the place, so let's see how we

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Speaker 2: wind up doing. I'll recap this on the Daily Juice

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Speaker 2: podcast coming up for tomorrow. My name is Matt Perrault.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for watching, Thank you for being here. Every Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: not next Tuesday, but every Tuesday for the rest of

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Speaker 2: the college basketball season. It will be the Betting Pros

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Speaker 2: College Basketball Podcast, same

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Speaker 1: Se