Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
Speaker 2: source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and
Speaker 2: whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now,
Speaker 2: here's your host, Paul Charchian.
Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. I'm Paul Charchian. Co host
Speaker 1: today Kent Wyrock.
Speaker 3: Hey, Kent, Hey, how are we doing? Paul Well?
Speaker 1: I spent last weekend at Circa Swim in Las Vegas
Speaker 1: for the Scott Fishbowl, the first drafts len of the
Speaker 1: Scott Fish Bowl season. And as much as I love Minnesota,
Speaker 1: and as much as I love the Minnesota event, it
Speaker 1: ain't the same as being at Stadium Swim at Circa.
Speaker 3: Let me tell you, Kent, oh, one hundred percent. I've
Speaker 3: been there for a different fantasy draft actually, and I
Speaker 3: was out there with some buddies, so we had a
Speaker 3: lot of fun. And man, it's it's that plays down
Speaker 3: in the downtown is like nothing else that that's around it.
Speaker 1: It's yeah, it's the oasis of downtown.
Speaker 3: Isn't Circa Fremont Street and all the man that's going
Speaker 3: on there, And then down at the end you got
Speaker 3: circa just lighten up the city.
Speaker 1: All right now, since we're talking about Fremont Street, and
Speaker 1: I don't want to go old man and everybody shaking
Speaker 1: his fist in the front lawn. But Fremont Street has
Speaker 1: got people bring their kids all the time to Fremont Street. A.
Speaker 1: You shouldn't be bringing your kid to Fremont Street. It's
Speaker 1: like every twelfth person is smoking a doobie. There's a
Speaker 1: you know, barely clothed people. There's all the all the
Speaker 1: weed shops, there's these all these T shirt places that
Speaker 1: have got really really deeply disturbing T shirts and just
Speaker 1: stuff that no kids should have to have, that you
Speaker 1: know should have that, in my opinion, have all of
Speaker 1: that input on them. And so I got two the
Speaker 1: two problems with the parents and some of them I
Speaker 1: think don't know how bad it's going to be until
Speaker 1: they get there. And then I just don't think Las
Speaker 1: Vegas should should have that stuff in such in an
Speaker 1: area that is where you know you're going to track families.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that stuff shouldn't exist. I just think
Speaker 1: it shouldn't be somewhere where you know it's swarming with families.
Speaker 3: But Paul, what about the guys wearing the twelve year
Speaker 3: old Ninja turtle costumes asking you for money?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Getting sure friendly, Well right exactly. That that bugs
Speaker 1: me too, is you know, like every fifteen feet there's
Speaker 1: some performer trying to shake you down for money.
Speaker 3: Oh, big time. It's a shakedown city. I mean, if
Speaker 3: we're being honest, well.
Speaker 1: It's certainly become a shakedown city. But I had the
Speaker 1: first I had the six pick of the Scout fish Bowl.
Speaker 1: And this new weird scoring system Kent is basically anybody
Speaker 1: with a ball in their hand a lot is worth
Speaker 1: a lot. Tight ends are still at a premium. And
Speaker 1: so with pick six overall, I took the second tight
Speaker 1: end off the board in Trey McBride.
Speaker 3: I was gonna say it was Bowers one, huh and
Speaker 3: then McBride second.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yep. He prow was the first to go, and
Speaker 1: then McBride. And honestly, I don't I don't necessarily have
Speaker 1: a problem with that. In round two, I got to
Speaker 1: Pukinnakua was there in the middle of round two, so
Speaker 1: I'm like, okay, I'll do that. A lot of quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: There were five quarterbacks taken in the first round and
Speaker 1: just yeah and yeah, and so I decided I didn't
Speaker 1: intend to, didn't go into the draft planning to slough quarterback,
Speaker 1: but I did, and I ended up later taking Drake May,
Speaker 1: Jordan Love, Gino Smith, and now I may take a
Speaker 1: couple more stabs at quarterback later. But you know, we
Speaker 1: don't have anything to go by. We were the very
Speaker 1: first draft to go off the board, so we don't
Speaker 1: have any Scott fish Bowl ADP. We don't have a president.
Speaker 1: We're not you know, we didn't crack open the scoring
Speaker 1: system necessarily the way people are going to later on.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there were some people doing some mock drafts out there.
Speaker 3: You can, you can find a little bit of information
Speaker 3: if you want. But what I've found over the years
Speaker 3: that when you get to the real deal, people pull
Speaker 3: out the strategies that they've keeping up their sleeves even
Speaker 3: through the mock draft season. So, uh, it's pretty tough
Speaker 3: to get a good read on Scott Fishful stuff before
Speaker 3: it happens, because it's different every year. It's always something
Speaker 3: new with Scott and and it's great. I love that
Speaker 3: because it you know, it's a good reason for me
Speaker 3: to kind of go through the numbers a little bit.
Speaker 3: See how it affects things like are people going to
Speaker 3: be asleep at the wheel going through their normal routines
Speaker 3: or are they going to be prepared to know what's
Speaker 3: a little bit more valuable in this type of scoring.
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's a lot of fun Two because it's
Speaker 1: all flex this year. There are no mandatory positions at all.
Speaker 1: One of our teams went seven straight running backs to
Speaker 1: open the draft, and one of them went six straight
Speaker 1: wide receivers to open the draft, and that's this is
Speaker 1: the only time you're ever going to do that.
Speaker 3: I was gonna say that that's funny to me because
Speaker 3: I don't know if I'm want to be drafting any
Speaker 3: wide receivers. If I'm being honest, you don't find out. Yeah, yep, Yeah,
Speaker 3: it's it's a weird scoring system, for sure.
Speaker 1: It is. And some people have got are going to
Speaker 1: have some real advantages if they if they cracked the
Speaker 1: code early on it for sure. Speaking of drafting a
Speaker 1: a lot of receivers early today, you and I are
Speaker 1: going to talk about do the opposite. Now Kent, longtime
Speaker 1: listeners are familiar with do the opposite because we've been
Speaker 1: talking about it on this show for almost twenty years,
Speaker 1: and then some guy put his own spin on it,
Speaker 1: while it's not his own spin, he took, he took
Speaker 1: our spin, called it zero running Back, and he had
Speaker 1: a bigger platform than this podcast did, apparently, and the
Speaker 1: thing took off. But we're talking about fundamentally the same thing.
Speaker 1: It originated here on this show and in the print
Speaker 1: versions of Fantasy Football Weekly, and we still call it
Speaker 1: do the opposite because we know that we were first
Speaker 1: by a decade and we're not a Johnny come Lately
Speaker 1: to this concept. The IgA idea Kent, as you probably know,
Speaker 1: is that running backs have the highest injury rate and
Speaker 1: the highest failure rate. So we shouldn't be spending our first,
Speaker 1: our most valuable picks at the top of the draft
Speaker 1: on the most dangerous position, and we should put that
Speaker 1: risk into the middle of our draft and go with
Speaker 1: other other position players quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends.
Speaker 1: And you know, running backs obviously get hurt constantly because
Speaker 1: they get tackled constantly, and it's all kinds of contact
Speaker 1: for them, in high speed contact. And the other part
Speaker 1: is they just they just come and go so fast.
Speaker 1: Ken I'm gonna give you from just two. We're just
Speaker 1: two seasons removed from these players being top ten EIGHTP
Speaker 1: running backs two seasons.
Speaker 3: Jeremy I don't like this, but let's go for it running.
Speaker 1: Back two, Austin Eckler running back four, Nick Chubb running
Speaker 1: back seven, Romandre Stevenson running back, nine, Najie Harris running back, ten,
Speaker 1: Travis Etn. All of them are outside of the top
Speaker 1: thirty running backs now just two years later. Meanwhile, Kent,
Speaker 1: here's the here's the wide receivers were from the same year,
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. Top ten wide receivers by ADP, Justin Jefferson,
Speaker 1: Lamar Chase Tyreek Hill, Cooper Cup, Stefan Diggs, Ceedee lamb,
Speaker 1: aj Brown, I'm on Ross Saint Brown, DeVante Adams, Garrett Wilson,
Speaker 1: and Jalen Waddle. Almost all of.
Speaker 3: Them essentially all still in the mix, right up to.
Speaker 1: All of them at least partially in the mix, and
Speaker 1: most of them, most all of them going inside the
Speaker 1: top thirty, unlike Eckler, Chubbs, Stevenson, Harrison, etn. And it
Speaker 1: tells you about just the volatility and the drop off
Speaker 1: cliff for running backs. And by the way, quarterbacks. Just
Speaker 1: as a side note, only two of the of the
Speaker 1: top ten quarterbacks from a couple of years ago are
Speaker 1: outside of the top ten this year. Otherwise it's the
Speaker 1: same eight guys. Eight of the ten of the are
Speaker 1: still in the top ten ADP. Right now, there's so
Speaker 1: much stability at the quarterback position.
Speaker 3: So yeah, we kind of went through a banner change
Speaker 3: around that time from the old guard of like the
Speaker 3: Philip Rivers, Ben Rotha Burger era, and now we're in
Speaker 3: this kind of new standard era. So that's going to
Speaker 3: last for a long time.
Speaker 1: I think I want to tell you one of those
Speaker 1: ten quarterbacks that were in the top ten two years ago,
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson. Now, yeah, those dumbasses, and I remember at
Speaker 1: the time, I'm like, you guys are crazy, you don't
Speaker 1: know what you're doing. And I think everybody's optimistic they
Speaker 1: were going to get the old Deshaun Watson in Cleveland,
Speaker 1: but it did not obviously did not work out that way.
Speaker 1: So for do the opposite, we essue running backs for
Speaker 1: five rounds. That was where I drew the line in
Speaker 1: the sand. You get to decide if you want it
Speaker 1: to be four, you wanted to be seven, or eight,
Speaker 1: however far you want. But I for me, I go
Speaker 1: five rounds. And let me tell you. If we were
Speaker 1: to just draft Kent, you and I were going to
Speaker 1: draft right through the middle of every round. Right now,
Speaker 1: Let's go through five rounds without taking a running back,
Speaker 1: and I'll tell you what your team would look like
Speaker 1: picking guys by today's ADP as we're recording from the
Speaker 1: middle of every round, and what your what your roster
Speaker 1: would look like heading into round six. And then you
Speaker 1: and I are going to reveal the running backs that
Speaker 1: we would take beginning round six. So here's my here's
Speaker 1: my sample draft. And obviously you could do your you
Speaker 1: could do your own variations on these, and you might
Speaker 1: be picking at the beginning of the first round, the
Speaker 1: beginning of the first round, whatever, But we're just gonna
Speaker 1: go through the middle. Your first five rounds could look
Speaker 1: like ce d Lamb, Brock Bowers, Davante, Adams, or Terry McLaren. Kent.
Speaker 1: You make the pick you want, Adams or mclauren. I
Speaker 1: still like Adams there Adams to me too, Lamb, Bowers, Davante, Adams,
Speaker 1: Jade and Daniels in the fourth round, and I'll go
Speaker 1: Zay Flowers in the fifth round. So, Kent, how do
Speaker 1: you feel about this team of CD Lamb, brock Bowers,
Speaker 1: Davante Adams, Jaden Daniels, and Zay Flowers through five?
Speaker 3: Well, I'll tell you what I'd be I'd be pretty
Speaker 3: happy with that. If we can, you know, find some
Speaker 3: running backs here that either can out outperform a or
Speaker 3: if we get a little lotto ticket kind of on
Speaker 3: the back end of the draft, we'll be fighting our
Speaker 3: way into the playoffs maybe, but then by the time
Speaker 3: we get there, we're gonna be crushing everyone. That's that's
Speaker 3: that's the whole idea.
Speaker 1: That is the whole idea. It's you just either you
Speaker 1: get just competent running backs who stay upright and you know,
Speaker 1: just help you fill out your roster and let these
Speaker 1: other superstar receivers go be great, or you hit a
Speaker 1: lottery ticket with one of these picks and now you've
Speaker 1: already got awesome receivers who are probably going to be fine.
Speaker 1: And there we go. All right, I'm gonna let you
Speaker 1: go first, Ken, So we've gone through five rounds, give
Speaker 1: me your do the opposite first, do the opposite running
Speaker 1: back you can get round six or later.
Speaker 3: Yeah. So the first one I'm gonna go with here
Speaker 3: is Tony Pollard. And you know, depending on where you
Speaker 3: look with ADP, like I looked at NFFC, he was
Speaker 3: seventy two, so technically that last fifth round pick. But
Speaker 3: we'll just say you can get him in the early
Speaker 3: sixth round most likely. He's got three straight years of
Speaker 3: thirteen hundred scrimmage yards and at least five touchdowns. That's
Speaker 3: someone who's a running back too. That's someone who's you're
Speaker 3: gonna throw in your lineup. You're gonna be fine with it.
Speaker 3: You're gonna play the lotto tickets later and then get
Speaker 3: someone who can have a little bit more upside than him, maybe,
Speaker 3: but he's rock solid. Last year he was RB twenty
Speaker 3: three points per game. He's never played fewer than fifteen
Speaker 3: games in his six NFL seasons, which is a little
Speaker 3: bit shocking to me. It's just rare to find a
Speaker 3: running back these days that is, you know, always not
Speaker 3: always healthy, but the best ability is availability.
Speaker 1: So yeah, and I think that's key to do. The
Speaker 1: opposite is we just alluded to this some minutes ago. Ken,
Speaker 1: Just give me running backs who are going to be
Speaker 1: healthy and just get me some decent point. Give me,
Speaker 1: you know, ten PPR points on a weekly basis, and
Speaker 1: that's all right, because we're talking round six, round seven,
Speaker 1: round eight, round nine, round ten. Give me tech double
Speaker 1: digit PPR points and that's a win in this. In this,
Speaker 1: do the opposite format absolutely. And I know a lot
Speaker 1: of people like to call this like the unning back
Speaker 1: dead zone. It's a place where you don't want to
Speaker 1: touch running backs because they're kind of, you know, still starters,
Speaker 1: but not quite good enough to be the elite tier.
Speaker 3: And I disagree. I think totally Pollard is pretty solid.
Speaker 3: He's had positive rushing yards above expectation and every year
Speaker 3: except twenty twenty three, so five out of six seasons.
Speaker 3: It's pretty good. He was fifth among all running backs
Speaker 3: in fifteen plus mile an hour rushes per game last year.
Speaker 3: He's got the juice. And it's important that you find
Speaker 3: guys that you know, a lot of this stuff can
Speaker 3: come down to scheme and offensive line block and stuff
Speaker 3: like that. So when they get their holes open to
Speaker 3: them and available, they got to just you know, fly
Speaker 3: through and pick up the yards and get the offense moving.
Speaker 3: And I think Tony Poler is a guy who's capable
Speaker 3: of that. He's not the most elusive of backs, but
Speaker 3: he's someone who if you give him a good hole,
Speaker 3: he's going to just run right through a real heart.
Speaker 3: So he was doing these fifteen mile hour runs on
Speaker 3: twenty two percent of his attempts last year. Where his
Speaker 3: backup co running back whatever you want to call him,
Speaker 3: to Jay Spears, he was only a fourteen percent of
Speaker 3: that metric. So he's got a little bit more juice
Speaker 3: where Spears might be a little bit more elusive, might
Speaker 3: you know, force more mistackles. But Tony Pollard's the starter,
Speaker 3: and yeah, we're just gonna We're gonna like that. So
Speaker 3: you know, they added Kevin Zeeler to this offensive line.
Speaker 3: They were twenty first in run block win rate last year,
Speaker 3: So yeah, I really like it. I think that he's
Speaker 3: going to do just good.
Speaker 1: Kent. Let's take a quick break and when we come back,
Speaker 1: more of the do the opposite running backs we are
Speaker 1: targeting in the middle rounds of your draft. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with Tyrone Tracy, the running back from the Giants.
Speaker 1: You can get him in the ninth round so we
Speaker 1: don't have to use like sixth round equity here. Currently
Speaker 1: ADP is one hundred and three. There are few, if
Speaker 1: any starting running backs being drafted lower than Tyrone Tracy.
Speaker 1: He's running back thirty three as of this writing. Not
Speaker 1: a special talent in my opinion, Kent, but I think
Speaker 1: he can be helpful enough that he can validate a
Speaker 1: ninth round pick. Giants offense should be better this year. Right,
Speaker 1: last year we were going to work with Daniel Jones
Speaker 1: and Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito. We got to half
Speaker 1: a game out of Tim Boyle Oh boy Right. Malik
Speaker 1: Neighbors threw one pass incomplete for the Giants last year.
Speaker 1: I think he's the best passer on the team last season.
Speaker 1: So now we get Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston. Those
Speaker 1: are sizeable upgrades. The Giants offense should be better. It's
Speaker 1: not gonna be great, but it's going to be better
Speaker 1: than it was last year. But the real thing for
Speaker 1: me on Tyron Tracy where he gets interesting not a
Speaker 1: lot of competition. Cam Scattabo is not going to be
Speaker 1: in every down back. He's going to be a situational back,
Speaker 1: and now as a sophomore, Tracy could be dramatically improved. Ken.
Speaker 1: I know you know this, and some of our listeners do.
Speaker 1: He's a converted wide receiver who is only a starting
Speaker 1: running back one season in college and then last year,
Speaker 1: so totally learning on the job the nuances of the
Speaker 1: ring back position last year, and even with all the
Speaker 1: disadvantages we talked about Tim Boyle and Drew Lock and
Speaker 1: everything else, the average four point four yards per carry
Speaker 1: in a backwards offense with a broken offensive line. So
Speaker 1: I think Tyrone Tracy's the kind of guy that can
Speaker 1: help you do the opposite approach.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I was I was coming here actually expecting
Speaker 3: to disagree with you, but I liked some of his
Speaker 3: advantaged metrics too, considering he was a late convert, he's
Speaker 3: really picked it up quickly. And if they can put
Speaker 3: together any kind of offense, he's in a good spot.
Speaker 1: He isn't a good spot. Who is your second do
Speaker 1: the opposite runner?
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're going with Isaiah Pacheco. And you know, this
Speaker 3: one's a little bit unfortunate because last year was really
Speaker 3: disappointing compared to his first two years in the league.
Speaker 3: But again, he's going in the sixth round. You know
Speaker 3: that the health concerns are valid. It's kind of based
Speaker 3: on his aggressive running style. You know, last year he
Speaker 3: had a fractured fibula and that was the reason that
Speaker 3: he went on ir We two came back, tried to play,
Speaker 3: didn't look so good, and the Chiefs really leaned on
Speaker 3: cream Hunt instead, even all the way through the playoffs,
Speaker 3: which might fear, you know, make some people afraid to
Speaker 3: be drafting Pacheco here. But personally, I think that if
Speaker 3: he can bounce to any kind of form like he
Speaker 3: was in his first two seasons, that he's in a
Speaker 3: good spot. First two year prior he was tenth to
Speaker 3: success rate, fourth and success rate, and then in rushing
Speaker 3: yards over expectation per attempt eighth and thirteenth, so not
Speaker 3: bad number the efficiency metrics going for him. If he
Speaker 3: can just get healthy of a good long off season.
Speaker 3: They brought back Kareem Hunt on a cheap deal. I
Speaker 3: think he's just going to be an insurance case. You know,
Speaker 3: he really wasn't that good last year. He had some
Speaker 3: pretty rough metrics and he's turning thirty. He was tied
Speaker 3: for second worst yards after contact per attempt too. The
Speaker 3: only one worse was Javonte Williams, So that's telling you
Speaker 3: something great.
Speaker 1: That that is, and we'll actually mentioned him later in
Speaker 1: passing Kareem Hunt. By almost any metric you can think of,
Speaker 1: was the worst running back in the NFL at his
Speaker 1: number of carries last season. Yep, my second do the
Speaker 1: opposite running back Denver's JK Dobbins currently going off the
Speaker 1: board round twelve. Now, there could be some It could
Speaker 1: be that he's he's sneaking higher, and we haven't seen
Speaker 1: a lot of the ADP lists sort of adjust since
Speaker 1: his signing, but that was two weeks ago. I mean
Speaker 1: I think by now, I think he's settling into round twelve.
Speaker 1: And I found out due to research on JK. Dobbins
Speaker 1: his full name ja kaaln Jay apostrophe Kaylin and that's
Speaker 1: the JK in JK. Dobbins never knew that. Yep, God
Speaker 1: bless him. He's had an ACL, an MCL, and an
Speaker 1: achilles rupture and has no earthly business being an NFL
Speaker 1: running back at this point with all those injuries. But
Speaker 1: he's only twenty six years old and Kent. Let's remember,
Speaker 1: Dobbins was on pace to be the comeback player of
Speaker 1: the Year. Through ten games. He was like the money
Speaker 1: line Vegas leader and then he suffered an mcl' sprain.
Speaker 1: He missed a month and then came back at the
Speaker 1: bitter end of the season and didn't do very much
Speaker 1: after this after the knee injury, But through those ten
Speaker 1: games through Week eleven, he averaged four point eight yards
Speaker 1: per carry of seventy two rushing yards per game and
Speaker 1: almost a full touchdown per game. He had eight touchdowns
Speaker 1: and eight in ten games, and his twenty one percent
Speaker 1: broken tackle rate ninth best during those first eleven weeks
Speaker 1: of the season for JK. Dobbins. So Denver signs him.
Speaker 1: We all know that they also drafted RJ. Harvey, and
Speaker 1: it was very excited about that because RJ. Harvey had
Speaker 1: this clear path to a bunt to a starting job.
Speaker 1: I think JK. Dobbins at a minimums is going to
Speaker 1: be the starter for a month or two Kent, Yeah.
Speaker 3: And you know with RJ. Harvey what he did last
Speaker 3: year and the year before. We're both very good collegiate seasons,
Speaker 3: don't get me wrong, but it's always a little bit
Speaker 3: sketchy when it requires you being a few years older
Speaker 3: than the guys you're playing against in terms of you know,
Speaker 3: these guys are you know, still growing in physicality and
Speaker 3: athleticism and stuff. So if you need to have those
Speaker 3: bonus years of growth in order to put up these numbers,
Speaker 3: I get a little sketched out. What he did was great,
Speaker 3: But Jigie Dobbins is getting a deal that could be
Speaker 3: worth up to five point something million. And I joked
Speaker 3: on Twitter X whatever you want to call it, that
Speaker 3: that's more than the rest of the running back room
Speaker 3: combined in Denver right now. Probably, I don't think they're
Speaker 3: not going to use him. I think they're going to
Speaker 3: let him hit the field plenty.
Speaker 1: I think so too. The fact that Dobbins they you know,
Speaker 1: they drafted Harvey, they got some looks at him in OTAs,
Speaker 1: and then they signed JK. Dobbins, And I think, to me,
Speaker 1: it just it's screams that Harvey's not going to be
Speaker 1: ready for a sizeable workload early in the season. I
Speaker 1: think that person's going to be JK. Dobbins. All right,
Speaker 1: let's go to your third and final do the opposite player, Kent?
Speaker 3: All right, we're going with Isaac Garrindo over in the
Speaker 3: Santa Francisco forty nine ers.
Speaker 1: There's your lottery ticket right there.
Speaker 3: Baby, Yeah, No, kidding twelfth rounder right now, so certainly
Speaker 3: you don't have to invest a lot of capital into him.
Speaker 3: And he is a handcuff. He's not a guy you're
Speaker 3: going to be flexing on any given week or anything
Speaker 3: like that unless they change up their style. But Kyle
Speaker 3: Shanahan has always seemed to lean into one player getting
Speaker 3: the majority of the workload. So I really should have
Speaker 3: just labeled my selection here. Whoever the handcuff is on
Speaker 3: a Kyle Shanahan team, that's really all you need to
Speaker 3: draft in the later rounds and you'll be okay. You know,
Speaker 3: Christian McCaffrey, we all hope that he plays a full season.
Speaker 3: I know I will, but you know he's only played
Speaker 3: two complete one since twenty twenty. And you know last year,
Speaker 3: of course, they went through four running backs and then
Speaker 3: you know, Grendo came in after Jordan Mason went down,
Speaker 3: and he did pretty good. He was thirty one attempt,
Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty five rushing yards, two touchdowns, and
Speaker 3: in those two games caught six targets for sixty eight
Speaker 3: receiving yards. He was solid. So I don't think that
Speaker 3: Patrick Taylor is any kind of a competition. They drafted
Speaker 3: a sixth or fifth rounder who's not going to be
Speaker 3: competition for them. He's just a really solid handcuff in
Speaker 3: an offense that I think is going to bounce back
Speaker 3: in a big way. They have a really easy strength
Speaker 3: of schedule right now for the twenty twenty five years.
Speaker 3: So you know, this San Francisco team, they're good. And
Speaker 3: if you get the good running back on a good team.
Speaker 3: And unfortunately, if Christian McCaffrey were to go down, I
Speaker 3: think Gorendo's gonna pick up a lot of fantasy points
Speaker 3: later in the year.
Speaker 1: Maybe the biggest lottery ticket there is in fantasy football
Speaker 1: is Grendo. If anything happens with Christian McCaffrey again, and
Speaker 1: he's missed significant time in three the last six seasons,
Speaker 1: and if Grendo can himself stay healthy after CMC goes down,
Speaker 1: which has been an ongoing issue for Isaac Garndo.
Speaker 3: Actually, this was funny part of part of my research.
Speaker 3: Real quick here. It was you know, he had his
Speaker 3: lineal issues in terms of health, and the rest of
Speaker 3: the running back room did too. I checked the NFLPA
Speaker 3: report card for training staff. San Francisco twenty fifth out
Speaker 3: of thirty two. That's not gonna come to a shotgun.
Speaker 3: So maybe we need to shy away from all running
Speaker 3: backs down there. But I just thought that was funny.
Speaker 1: That is good, all right. My final do the opposite player,
Speaker 1: and I hate to keep beating the same drum over
Speaker 1: and over again, so I'm gonna keep this short. But
Speaker 1: not everybody listens to every word I say in every
Speaker 1: podcast can as much as I'd like to think that
Speaker 1: everybody is so dialed in that they are transcribing every
Speaker 1: word we say. Some people haven't heard me bang the
Speaker 1: drum for Jordan Mason yet, but I think I think
Speaker 1: it's starting to change. I'm not saying I'm personally moving
Speaker 1: the needle on him, but Jordan Mason's ADP has gone
Speaker 1: up four rounds in the last six weeks. And I've
Speaker 1: been banging the drum for Jordan Mason in Minnesota all
Speaker 1: off season since the trade, and especially in the last
Speaker 1: couple of months when the Vikings didn't make any changes
Speaker 1: through the draft at running back. As I've said many times,
Speaker 1: he's going to be the goal line guy. It's going
Speaker 1: to be closer to a fifty to fifty split in
Speaker 1: Minnesota than people believe Aaron Jones is still a good back,
Speaker 1: but he's also an aged back at year thirty. With
Speaker 1: the miles that he's got. He managed to stay upright
Speaker 1: for seventeen games last year, but they used him a
Speaker 1: lot more than they want to. And at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, especially Jordan Mason can't catch, but he's
Speaker 1: going to offset what he can't catch through touchdowns. He
Speaker 1: could be easily sitting on a ten touchdown season, I believe,
Speaker 1: and most a double digit touchdown season for Jordan Mason,
Speaker 1: to me, is is very plausible.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And you know we've talked about this before, of course,
Speaker 3: and I actually went and looked at it Aaron Jones
Speaker 3: to see if he had any kind of a falloff
Speaker 3: inefficiency because he was used more than he was in
Speaker 3: previous seasons at Green Bay. But honestly, he still looked
Speaker 3: pretty good for last year. And I know he's getting
Speaker 3: older and I know he's had a lot of touches
Speaker 3: over the course of his career. But at rising price
Speaker 3: on Jordan Mason, boy, I hope he stays cheap enough
Speaker 3: to extract the value from it. That's my only concern.
Speaker 1: Now going in the eighth round and it's the gap
Speaker 1: between him and Aaron Jones. It used to be like
Speaker 1: a five round gap. Now Jones is going down, Mason's
Speaker 1: going up. But in a do the opposite scenario, I
Speaker 1: I'd rather have Jordan Mason and you could draft both
Speaker 1: if you wanted to. Maybe you you know, you just go, Hey,
Speaker 1: Viking's gonna be up to the backfield. Lock up the
Speaker 1: backfield if you want to do that one guy gets hurt,
Speaker 1: whatever you got, or she could start both on a
Speaker 1: pinch if you needed to. Notable by his absence, Javonte Williams,
Speaker 1: neither one of you, neither one of us chose Dallas,
Speaker 1: the Dallas starting running back. Even at ADP one hundred
Speaker 1: and thirteen. You and I aren't on Javonte Williams. He's
Speaker 1: the being the lowest drafted clear starting NFL running back.
Speaker 1: He's not. I don't believe he's really locked into any
Speaker 1: kind of a duel for the starting job. I believe
Speaker 1: that's his job. Tell me a little bit about Kent,
Speaker 1: why you didn't choose to Javonte Williams, and then I'll
Speaker 1: explain some of my rationale too.
Speaker 3: I wanted to. Honestly, I really did. I I liked
Speaker 3: him when he was coming into the league, and I
Speaker 3: tried to stick with him as he was kind of
Speaker 3: going down in value and usage, and unfortunately he just
Speaker 3: kept going down. And unfortunately, I think that trend is
Speaker 3: going to continue. It is probably his backfield. I just
Speaker 3: worry that they're going to do like a three way
Speaker 3: deployment between him Miles Sanders. Unfortunately is you know, still there.
Speaker 3: He's Miles Sanders isn't going to take the lead job,
Speaker 3: but he's going to be a thorn in your side.
Speaker 3: I think that's the best way to describe Sanders these days.
Speaker 3: And then Jayden Blue, you know who, granted doesn't have
Speaker 3: a huge resume on the collegiate side of things, I
Speaker 3: think they like him, and I think a lot of
Speaker 3: people that I've seen and you know, the prospect Space
Speaker 3: has really enjoyed his film. So you know, he's got
Speaker 3: an opportunity with two, you know, so to speak, deadbeat
Speaker 3: running backs ahead of him. What reason is there for
Speaker 3: him to not jump ahead. That's That's kind of where
Speaker 3: I'm at right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just just a little bit part of it
Speaker 1: was eye test on Javonte Williams in broken tackle rate
Speaker 1: last year. He was forty first forty first round among
Speaker 1: running backs that's not starting running back territory territory. He
Speaker 1: averaged three point seven yards per carry. You know, there's
Speaker 1: just there were no metrics that made you feel good
Speaker 1: about Javonte Williams. And he's two years off the ACL
Speaker 1: ken So I just think that, you know, there's a
Speaker 1: point at which you go, Okay, if you were going
Speaker 1: to come back from the ACL in a really meaningful way,
Speaker 1: it probably would have already happened, didn't. And last last
Speaker 1: metric I'll give you on Javonte Williams yards yards after contact,
Speaker 1: which I think is a is a really really important
Speaker 1: stat for running backs. Javonte Williams dead last among runners
Speaker 1: with at least one hundred series.
Speaker 3: I just can't get away from these metrics. Man, It's
Speaker 3: just always been going down with him, and it's it's
Speaker 3: hard to justify. You know, he doesn't even have the
Speaker 3: volume locked up. I would. I would say he's the
Speaker 3: leader right now, but he's not like locked into the
Speaker 3: workhorse role. So if you don't even have the efficiency
Speaker 3: to justify it, I don't know. I couldn't bring myself.
Speaker 1: To do it. Same talk to me. Was there was
Speaker 1: there anybody else on your short lift list that just
Speaker 1: you know, you didn't quite couldn't quite make the cut
Speaker 1: into your three do the opposite running backs?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I considered Rushad White. I know, you know, you
Speaker 3: have your Bucky Irving I go on repeat season. So
Speaker 3: I think, you know, in the eleventh round, he's probably
Speaker 3: someone who in PPR league of any style, you're probably
Speaker 3: going to be able to flex him occasionally as a
Speaker 3: fill in player, but he does still have the handcuff status.
Speaker 3: I don't think Sean Tucker is going to be a
Speaker 3: guy to up in in front of Rashad White. And
Speaker 3: when Rashad White was the leader, even though he was
Speaker 3: a ho hum runner and wasn't the most electric guy,
Speaker 3: he was running back fourteen in points per game when
Speaker 3: he was by himself. So I think he's you know,
Speaker 3: this is a good offense. You know, you got Baker
Speaker 3: coming back, you got the receivers coming back, you have
Speaker 3: a new receiver in town. They're gonna be scoring a
Speaker 3: lot of points. And you know, again a handcuff situation,
Speaker 3: but you might be able to sneak a flex here
Speaker 3: or there.
Speaker 1: Just a handcuff to me, But I you know, that's
Speaker 1: I'm just, I just I can't go with you on
Speaker 1: the Rashad White journey because Bucky's a good pass catcher.
Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna yield automatically yield those third downs.
Speaker 1: And I think Bucky's a sneaky candidate for like two
Speaker 1: thousand total yards, So I can't do it.
Speaker 3: Potentially, what if I told you that from week eleven on?
Speaker 3: So this is after the buye and I don't know
Speaker 3: if you recall, but Bucky got hurt in week six,
Speaker 3: so I was gonna look at that first and then
Speaker 3: went to the buy which would be even more in
Speaker 3: Bucky's favor. Yeah, the snap percentage split was only fifty
Speaker 3: percent to Bucky Irving forty. Wow.
Speaker 1: That does surprise me.
Speaker 3: That more balanced than I think I was expecting to.
Speaker 1: So, but that's okay, that snaps, right, that snaps. I'm
Speaker 1: guessing Rashad White was in on passing downs and that
Speaker 1: does not represent his touches. He's probably a better blocker
Speaker 1: and guessing and I'm guessing that that was that was
Speaker 1: part of It's just my just a hunch there, but
Speaker 1: I don't you know. Yep, Yeah, good job to take
Speaker 1: Ken there's a ton of fun. Do the opposite. This
Speaker 1: is a you know, this is a it's a time tested,
Speaker 1: proven you know, in years past we've done really deep
Speaker 1: dives and do the opposite. We show all the data
Speaker 1: and we show you, you know, the dangers of of
Speaker 1: you know, running backs of the last five years. Here's
Speaker 1: the failure rate, here's the failure rate and receivers, stuff
Speaker 1: like that. Honestly, we've gone away from it a little
Speaker 1: bit just because zero running back has become so popular.
Speaker 1: People write are writing about it and talking about it,
Speaker 1: and you know, I just, you know, I don't feel
Speaker 1: like we have to justify the existence of do the opposit,
Speaker 1: said Ken, as much as we used to.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's certainly shifted year to year two. I
Speaker 3: think people kind of react a little bit too much
Speaker 3: to the prior season. And so if you just keep
Speaker 3: with a steadfast kind of system year in year out,
Speaker 3: you're probably gonna end up with more wins than losses.
Speaker 1: Agreed. Agreed. And if you do get your lottery ticket
Speaker 1: comes in, and typically half of the top ten running
Speaker 1: backs will come from outside of round six or below.
Speaker 1: If your lottery ticket does come in and you're sitting
Speaker 1: with Ceed Lamb and Brock Bauers and Devonte Adams and
Speaker 1: Jaden Daniels and Za Flowers. Bang, that's it. You've got it. Now,
Speaker 1: you have it right, You've got an absolute juggernaut team.
Speaker 1: So and do we know if it's gonna be JK.
Speaker 1: Dobbins or Tony Pollard or Tyrone Tracy. You know, we
Speaker 1: don't know who it's going to be. But odds are
Speaker 1: one of those guys is gonna pop for any of
Speaker 1: the reasons that we gave.
Speaker 3: I was gonna say, my last thing is here is
Speaker 3: you know, maybe your league pays out through third place
Speaker 3: or whatever, but essentially speaking, fourth through last place are
Speaker 3: equal to me. I'm I'm swinging for the fences first
Speaker 3: place if I can do it, obviously, and if anything
Speaker 3: other than that, I don't care. That the strategy should
Speaker 3: really be about maximizing your upside going for that trophy.
Speaker 1: Yes, this isn't a guillotine league. We're trying to reduce risk.
Speaker 1: This is your regular league where you have to be
Speaker 1: the best out of twelve teams. And the place to
Speaker 1: put the place to put your risk is that middle
Speaker 1: is the middle of the draft. In my mind, because
Speaker 1: if any of those guys pop your set at the
Speaker 1: other positions. Now I'm repeating myself. I agree, Yeah, you
Speaker 1: agree that I'm repeating myself. Appreciate that. Kat, great job today,
Speaker 1: Thank you for listening, everybody. We'll be back next week
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