1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Hey everyone, I'm Pat fitz Morris, managing editor of Betting 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: Pros and Fantasy Pros, here to run through my favorite 3 00:00:07,440 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: player props for the Super Bowl. This is the final 4 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: player props video of the NFL season, so let's go 5 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: out with the bang here and we'll get right to it. 6 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:20,640 Speaker 1: Just a reminder first that all lines are courtesy of 7 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: DraftKings as of Thursday afternoons. So I'm going to start 8 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 1: with Patrick Mahomes under three hundred and seventeen point five 9 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 1: passing plus rushing yards. So Mahomes is facing a Philly 10 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:38,599 Speaker 1: defense that gave up an average of two hundred and 11 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: seven passing yards per game during the regular season. Of course, 12 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 1: Mahomes is no ordinary quarterback, but it's just very rare 13 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: for anyone to torch the Eagles through the air. The 14 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 1: only quarterback to have thrown from more than three hundred 15 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: yards against them this season was Dak Prescott, who did 16 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: light them up for three hundred and forty seven passing 17 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 1: yards on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas. But the only other 18 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:06,479 Speaker 1: quarterback to throw for two hundred and fifty or more 19 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 1: yards against the Eagles this season was Kyler Murray of 20 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:13,040 Speaker 1: the Cardinals, who threw for exactly two hundred and fifty yards. 21 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 1: Mahomes averaged three hundred and eight points eight passing yards 22 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:19,760 Speaker 1: per game during the regular season, but he has not 23 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:23,319 Speaker 1: faced a pass defense as good as Phillies this year, 24 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 1: which is the best in the league according to Football 25 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: Outsiders DVA metric. We also know the Eagles have the 26 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 1: best pass rush in the league. They had seventy sacks 27 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: during the regular season, more than any team during the 28 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: regular season since the nineteen eighty four Chicago Bears the 29 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 1: Monsters of the Midway. So this is a nasty pass 30 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: defense that Patrick Mahomes is going to be up against. 31 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna have a lot of time 32 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 1: to sit in the pocket and look for his receivers 33 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 1: deep down field. And the reason I like the passing 34 00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 1: plus rushing yardage bet more than rushing is is for 35 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 1: Mahomes passing alone, his total is two ninety four point five. 36 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 1: Add the rushing, and for some reason on DraftKings it 37 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: vaults up to three hundred and seventeen point five. I'm 38 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 1: not sure why it's twenty three yards higher. Considering that 39 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes is playing on a high ankle sprain and 40 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 1: you know, if you're telling me the over under on 41 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 1: his rushing yardage is twenty three, I am slamming the 42 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 1: under a matt playing on a sprained ankle against the 43 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 1: Bengals and the AFC Championship game, Mahomes ran three times 44 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 1: for eight yards, and you know he's mobile, but he's 45 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: just not a running quarterback. So Patrick Mahomes under three 46 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 1: hundred and seventeen point five passing plus rushing yards. Another chief, 47 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 1: Isaiah Pachecko under excuse me, over forty eight point five 48 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 1: rushing yards. Pachecko over forty eight point five rushing yards. 49 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: He has exceeded this number in nine of his last 50 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 1: eleven games. Has Pachecko evering sixty eight point five rushing 51 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 1: yards a game over that stretch. He's also had double 52 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 1: digit carries in nine of his last eleven games. The Eagles, 53 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: as mentioned earlier, are number one against the pass, but 54 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 1: in DVA they are just twenty first against the run. Now, 55 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 1: granted they have been better lately. They were burned at 56 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 1: mid season quite a bit on the ground, but then 57 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,919 Speaker 1: in November on consecutive days they signed Indama Kong Su 58 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 1: and Linval Joseph. I believe they played their first games 59 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 1: for the Eagles in Week eleven, and then two weeks 60 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 1: after that they got back their first round rookie Jordan Davis, 61 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: the massive three hundred and forty pound defensive tackle from Georgia. 62 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 1: They got him back from a month long injury in 63 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 1: week thirteen, and since Week thirteen they have been number 64 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 1: eight in DVOA against the run. But nevertheless, it is 65 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 1: easier to run against the Eagles than throw against them, 66 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 1: and I think it makes sense for the Chiefs to 67 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: come out with a balanced game plan to help protect 68 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes with that high ankle sprain against this fierce 69 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 1: Philadelphia pass defense. So Andy Reid does not want the 70 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: Eagles to pin their ears back and come after Patrick 71 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 1: Mahomes out game. The Betting Pros prop bet analyzer really 72 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:25,159 Speaker 1: likes this bet too. It projects Pachecko to have fifty 73 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: eight point four rushing yards, which is almost exactly ten 74 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,919 Speaker 1: yards over his total, and it gives this bet a 75 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 1: sixty one percent of hitting Isaiah Pichecko over forty eight 76 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:40,359 Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards. I will get to the 77 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:42,679 Speaker 1: rest of my favorite prop bets for the Super Bowl 78 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 1: in just a minute, but first subscribe to the Betting 79 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channel and comment below in this video, because 80 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 1: when you do, you could win a free upgrade to 81 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: Betting Pros Premium. Whether you're looking for access to exclusive 82 00:04:56,680 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 1: picks or top rated player prop or custom analysis or 83 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,920 Speaker 1: custom analysis of your own betting performance, Betting Pro's Premium 84 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 1: has the tools to help you cash more bats, plain 85 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 1: and simple. Don't want to wait for the giveaway. Sign 86 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: up today at bettingpros dot com, slash upgrade and start 87 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:23,359 Speaker 1: betting smarter, not harder. All right, back to the player props. 88 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 1: Kadarius Tony under twenty six point five receiving yards. Tony 89 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 1: sprain an ankle against the Bengals in the AFC Championship game, 90 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 1: missed some practice time last week, but he says he's 91 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:41,159 Speaker 1: gonna play. He's back at practice still. Tony has really 92 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,480 Speaker 1: only been a part time player for the Chiefs since 93 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 1: joining them, since he's around Kansas City. He has played 94 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 1: more than twenty snaps only one time in nine games, 95 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 1: so twenty snaps are fewer in eight of his nine 96 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: games with the Chiefs, and he has only exceeded twenty 97 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:04,159 Speaker 1: six point five receiving yards in three of those nine games. 98 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,479 Speaker 1: So Tony is going to be facing an Eagles defense 99 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 1: that has allowed the fourth fewest receiving yards to wide 100 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 1: receivers during the regular season, and the Chiefs corners are 101 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 1: excellent or the Eagles corners are excellent. Excuse me, Darius Slay, 102 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:26,599 Speaker 1: James Bradbury, Vonte Maddox in the slot. It's possible two 103 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 1: that Tony reaggravates the ankle injury, or maybe they just 104 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 1: limit his snaps even more than usual because of it. 105 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: I think Tony under twenty six point five receiving yards 106 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 1: is the way to go here. Kenneth Gainwell over eleven 107 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 1: point five receiving yards. Gainwell has caught at least one 108 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,679 Speaker 1: pass in nine consecutive games. He's had more than one 109 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: catch in five of those nine games, and in four 110 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 1: of his last six Gainwell was targeted three times and 111 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: had two catches for twenty six yards against the forty 112 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 1: nine Ers in the NFC Championship Game. And as noted 113 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: by my colleague Derek Brown, the Chiefs gave up a 114 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: lot of receiving yards to running backs during the regular season. 115 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 1: They allow the fourth most receiving yards to rbs during 116 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 1: the regular season and also the most reception so I 117 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 1: like Kenneth gainwell over eleven point five receiving yards. I 118 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:27,560 Speaker 1: also like Noah Gray, the Chiefs number two tight end, 119 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: over twelve and a half receiving yards. I had bet 120 00:07:31,080 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 1: Great to finish with more than eleven and a half 121 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 1: receiving yards in the AFC Championship game. That didn't pan out. 122 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 1: He had one catch for four yards. But I'm jumping 123 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: right back on that train. Gray has topped twelve and 124 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: a half receiving yards in two of his last three 125 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 1: games and nine of his last twelve, and Chiefs running 126 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 1: Chiefs wide receivers Juju Smith Schuster and the aforementioned Kadarius 127 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 1: Tony both a little banged up for this game after 128 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: leaving the AFC champion Chip Game and not practicing last week. So, 129 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: and let's face it, the chief swide receivers just aren't 130 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: very good as a collective group. So Kansas City's tight 131 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 1: ends figure to be heavily involved. I know that mostly 132 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 1: means Kelsey, but I think they're going to sprinkle in 133 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: a little bit of Noah Gray too, so our Betting 134 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 1: Pros content director Matthew Friedman projects Gray for fifteen point 135 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: eight receiving yards in his Super Bowl Player Projections article, 136 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 1: which you can find on bettingpros dot com. I like 137 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 1: Noah Gray over twelve and a half receiving yards, and 138 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 1: since this is the final player props video of the year, 139 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 1: I'm going to throw in one bonus player prop for you. 140 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 1: But here's the catch to this is that it's not 141 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:48,599 Speaker 1: an NFL player. This is a Super Bowl cross sports 142 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 1: special posted on DraftKings that I like. I'm going to 143 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 1: bet that the number of points scored in the first 144 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: half of the Super Bowl will exceed the number of 145 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 1: points scored by Pascal Siakam of the Toronto Raptors against 146 00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 1: the Detroit Pistons on Sunday afternoon, and I have this 147 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 1: bet at plus one point twenty with the total for 148 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,240 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl set at fifty one points on DraftKings. 149 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: Half of that is twenty five point five points, So 150 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: the implied total for the first half of the Super 151 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 1: Bowl twenty five point five points. Pascal Siakam is averaging 152 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: twenty four points seven points per game, and he's had 153 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 1: twenty four points or fewer in eleven of his last 154 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: fourteen Granted, the matchup seems like a good one for Siakam. 155 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 1: The Pistons are Patsy's. They are fourteen and forty two 156 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 1: in the season, and they are giving up one hundred 157 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,079 Speaker 1: and nineteen points seven points per game, the second most 158 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:49,199 Speaker 1: in the NBA. But this could also work in favor 159 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:54,439 Speaker 1: of us if the Raptors are blowing the Pistons doors 160 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:57,559 Speaker 1: off on Sunday afternoon and just decide to sit Siakam 161 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. So I like the first half 162 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:07,319 Speaker 1: total of the Super Bowl versus Pascal Siakams point total 163 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 1: on Sunday, and again you can get plus one twenty 164 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: on that bet. So just to recap, my favorite props 165 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:18,199 Speaker 1: player props for the Super Bowl are Patrick Mahomes under 166 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 1: three hundred and seventeen point five passing plus rushing yards, 167 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:28,599 Speaker 1: Isaiah Piccheco over forty eight point five rushing yards, Kadarius 168 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 1: Tony under twenty six point five receiving yards, Kenneth Gainwell 169 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:37,439 Speaker 1: over eleven point five receiving yards, Noah Gray over twelve 170 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 1: point five receiving yards, and the first half total of 171 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:48,439 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl outpacing Pascal Siakam. Grab that one on 172 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: DraftKings plus one twenty. That is a novelty prop that 173 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 1: I really like, so good luck to all of you, 174 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: eat a lot of guacamole and chicken wings, enjoy the 175 00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: Super Bowl. We'll talk to you again soon. Cheers, S.