Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast, brought
Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is
Speaker 1: week nine. It is time to talk about our best
Speaker 1: bets for the weekend. And to do that with me
Speaker 1: is Andrew Cayley, senior betting analyst over at Covers. Find
Speaker 1: him at Twitter at Underscore. No wait, sorry, Saratt, what's
Speaker 1: your Twitter handle? And I totally messed up Covered?
Speaker 2: Kley is out Underscore, Kaylee.
Speaker 1: I totally messed it up. I totally messed it up
Speaker 1: Covers Underscore Kaylee c A l e Y. We're off
Speaker 1: to a brilliant start, Andrew, despite me mangling your Twitter handle?
Speaker 3: How are you? Thanks for joining me.
Speaker 2: I'm doing very well. I'm happy that I could figure
Speaker 2: out all my technology. I was away for a couple
Speaker 2: of weeks from from the betting boards for my wedding
Speaker 2: and a little honeymoons. So ready to get back into
Speaker 2: the action right now. So hopefully I don't disappoint a
Speaker 2: little rusty.
Speaker 3: Yeah, apologies again.
Speaker 1: I know you had me asked me to be your
Speaker 1: best man.
Speaker 2: I couldn't make it.
Speaker 1: I'm really sorry, a very busy weekend for me just
Speaker 1: with the NFL, you know, so well, it's great to
Speaker 1: have you back. Congratulations like getting married. I'm kidding, obviously,
Speaker 1: I'm kidding. And again, you know we've got some Aaron
Speaker 1: Rodgers drama. Last time you were here back in probably
Speaker 1: week two, and we were doing it during the Monday
Speaker 1: night football game and before things turned around, which they
Speaker 1: ultimately did in that game. While we were watching, they
Speaker 1: looked like they were about to lose again and it
Speaker 1: was the Is Rogers tanking. And now we have the
Speaker 1: whole thing with him going to miss this game with
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen. So this might be your last time on
Speaker 1: the podcast if our Green Bay fans.
Speaker 3: Had anything to do with it, because they're going to
Speaker 3: be pretty pick Yea.
Speaker 2: I guess I'm unlucky. I'm sorry, I'm sorry.
Speaker 1: No, no, no, it's all right, it's all right, don't
Speaker 1: worry about it. All right, So let's get to it.
Speaker 1: Three best bets of the weekend for each of us,
Speaker 1: whether we're doing spreads, totals, teamed totals, money line, whatever
Speaker 1: we want. Then we'll very quickly run through the remaining
Speaker 1: spreads and just talk about if we have a lean
Speaker 1: or if it's a total stay away for both of us.
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Speaker 3: All right, very quickly, let's run through last week.
Speaker 1: Our guest Ryan Noonan had a nice week two and
Speaker 1: one hit on the Cowboys, getting one and a half
Speaker 1: from the Vikings the Rams team total over thirty and
Speaker 1: a half, but he did miss on the Bucks slaying
Speaker 1: five and a half to the Saints.
Speaker 3: I went one and two again.
Speaker 1: Unfortunately, I did hit on the Steelers, getting three and
Speaker 1: a half from the Browns, which was my favorite bet,
Speaker 1: but I missed on both my totals, the under fifteen
Speaker 1: and a half in the Bucks and the Saints and
Speaker 1: the under fifty one on the Colts and Titans. That
Speaker 1: puts me at fourteen and ten on the season fifty
Speaker 1: eight percent. So that's fine, but let's do better this time.
Speaker 1: Remember I'm going to be using the Betting prosconsensus line
Speaker 1: bettingpros dot Com consensus lines that'll show you lines available
Speaker 1: at all the various books, but also the aggregate of
Speaker 1: all the lines that are there. You can fade us,
Speaker 1: you can follow us, you can do whatever you want.
Speaker 1: Let's get started. Andrew, you are our guests. Please your
Speaker 1: first selection.
Speaker 2: I am going with the Chiefs team total over twenty
Speaker 2: seven and a half. I'd take it over twenty eight.
Speaker 2: That's a juice to about minus one depending on the book.
Speaker 2: I know the Chiefs look broken right now. It's it's
Speaker 2: as a guy. I have many shares in Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 2: in my Dynasty Fantasy football leagues, and it's been a
Speaker 2: little iffy recently. But there's no Aaron Rodgers this week,
Speaker 2: and the total immediately dropped from about fifty five and
Speaker 2: a half to forty eight and a half forty eight ish,
Speaker 2: So a better touchdown he's worth a better touchdown. But
Speaker 2: I'm trying not to look at what the Rogers being
Speaker 2: gone will mean to the game overall, and I'm just
Speaker 2: going to try to focus on the Chiefs and that
Speaker 2: makes it a little easier for me. Like as they said,
Speaker 2: the Chiefs obviously look broken on offense, but I'm going
Speaker 2: to give them a little bit more faith for at
Speaker 2: least one more week. The Packers have already lost several
Speaker 2: key guys on defense this year, and that's a defense
Speaker 2: that rings twenty second in Dvoa right now. And now
Speaker 2: they have the several more guys who are questionable over
Speaker 2: Elier this week, and now we get the Jordan Love experience,
Speaker 2: and I'm not sure what we're gonna get out of
Speaker 2: the pan. If we get I expect him to give
Speaker 2: the Chiefs at least one, if not multiple short fields,
Speaker 2: So I think that could help their scoring a bit
Speaker 2: in this game as well, And I think they're going
Speaker 2: to want to show that they're not broken anymore. But
Speaker 2: what I've seen My biggest issue from what I've seen
Speaker 2: from the Chiefs right now is that Pafrick Mahomes is
Speaker 2: me moving out of the pocket too quickly right now.
Speaker 2: And I understand why. I get it. That offensive line
Speaker 2: has been pretty terrible, but it's been so terrible to
Speaker 2: point now. He's moving before the pressure gets there, and
Speaker 2: he's running around and he's forcing frozy. He's always forced
Speaker 2: throw tea shut and he has that ability and he
Speaker 2: trusts his arm a little too much at times, but
Speaker 2: it's been to the extreme at this point. So I
Speaker 2: think that the Packers aren't going to get much of
Speaker 2: a pass rush on him in this game, so he'll
Speaker 2: be able to settle down a little bit more and
Speaker 2: just trust his arm a bit, and they'll be able
Speaker 2: to show that there's still a team that needs to
Speaker 2: fear on offense this week. So we're gonna go over
Speaker 2: twenty seven and a half team total.
Speaker 3: I can't try you on this one.
Speaker 1: And really, I well, here's the thing. Why didn't they
Speaker 1: show it this week? I mean a Monday night football
Speaker 1: game at home against the Giants. That seems like the shot, right,
Speaker 1: That seems like this is where they're gonna get, right,
Speaker 1: this is what they're gonna do, and they looked as
Speaker 1: broken as ever. I mean, is this just the you know,
Speaker 1: the Packers don't get a great pass rush the Giants
Speaker 1: zone either generally speaking, but the Packers don't get a
Speaker 1: great pass rush and they're injured, and you just kind
Speaker 1: of expect, because you have so much faith in what
Speaker 1: they've done in the past, that they're just gonna happen
Speaker 1: to get right in this.
Speaker 2: But the Leonard Williams is that's the type of thing
Speaker 2: that the Bucks did well. You go right up the
Speaker 2: middle and you get them, you get them out of
Speaker 2: the pocket right away. And I agree, yes, they probably
Speaker 2: should have done it against the Giants as well, but
Speaker 2: this is I think this is just a spot where
Speaker 2: this is a get right spot for them, and I
Speaker 2: think they'd do it. And I it's still trust what
Speaker 2: I see in the talent on that team. I still
Speaker 2: think they're well coached. I think Andy Reid is kind
Speaker 2: of like overthinking things a little bit with some of
Speaker 2: these goal line plays at times that that does trouble
Speaker 2: me a little bit. Like they'll be running these draws
Speaker 2: on first and goal from the nine where they get
Speaker 2: zero yards and then they do a trick play and
Speaker 2: then you're like, oh, it's just a regular pass, Like,
Speaker 2: just do your regular play. Sets in the goal to
Speaker 2: go situation and they'll be fine. That they have the
Speaker 2: talent they have that they can do it. They just
Speaker 2: have to trust themselves a little more, and I think
Speaker 2: I think they do that well.
Speaker 1: I certainly hope you are correct. I'm going to be
Speaker 1: watching this from the sidelines. I'd like the Chiefs to
Speaker 1: get right, and again I have faith that they will eventually,
Speaker 1: like because Mahomes is too good, Read.
Speaker 3: Is too good.
Speaker 1: But for now, I'm just going to watch it from
Speaker 1: the sidelines. But I am really interested to see what
Speaker 1: this game looks like right now. I think the spread
Speaker 1: has jumped from one and a half to seven and
Speaker 1: a half when the move is made there at the quarterback,
Speaker 1: So I look forward to watching. I'm going to take
Speaker 1: a game that I know you were on as well,
Speaker 1: so you know, I feel good that I took it,
Speaker 1: except for the fact that the spread is moving in
Speaker 1: a crazy fashion, which isn't surprising given the injuries. So
Speaker 1: I will take where the consensus line is at the
Speaker 1: time that we make this pick, which is the.
Speaker 3: Forty nine ers. Now laying two to the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: Now, I will tell you that I have so much
Speaker 1: action on this game because it was originally the Cardinals
Speaker 1: laying two and a half to the forty nine Ers.
Speaker 1: So I have teased the forty nine ers up already
Speaker 1: twice in two different teasers to eight and a half.
Speaker 1: Then when it went to one and a half, I
Speaker 1: tease them up to seven and a half. Now, when
Speaker 1: I was doing this this morning, it was the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers laying one. The consensus line is now two.
Speaker 1: There are still some ones out there, some one and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 3: It's at two.
Speaker 1: That's fine. I'm willing to do it, but it takes
Speaker 1: away my money line bet. So again it's moving because
Speaker 1: of the injury concerns. I'm sure again we're doing this
Speaker 1: on Thursday, before the Thursday night football game. Neither Kyler
Speaker 1: Murray nor DeAndre Hopkins practice this week. There was a
Speaker 1: report earlier in the week did they expect Kyler Murray
Speaker 1: to go? But even if he goes, he's going to
Speaker 1: be extremely limited. But even without that, okay, like take
Speaker 1: that away, give them full strength. I still kind of
Speaker 1: think the forty nine ers are going to win this game. Regardless. First,
Speaker 1: they should have beaten them last game, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: that's the thing. They had Trey Lance right starting his
Speaker 1: first start. They almost scored, you know, they got stuffed
Speaker 1: at the goal line. They couldn't convert a fourth down.
Speaker 1: They were very close throughout that. They wound up losing
Speaker 1: seventeen to ten, but easily a game that they could win.
Speaker 1: The forty nine ers are getting healthier. Everything I've seen
Speaker 1: suggest that George Kittle is going to be able to
Speaker 1: make it back for this game, which not only helps
Speaker 1: their passing game, but also helps their running game because
Speaker 1: he's such a good blocker. Elijah Mitchell returned to practice today.
Speaker 1: Deebo Samuel is still working on the side, but again
Speaker 1: he was battling the calf thing last and last week,
Speaker 1: and he did play. Jim and Garoppolo look good. Brandon
Speaker 1: Ayukuz coming along a little bit more so. I think
Speaker 1: their offense here is just getting better and there is
Speaker 1: regression coming for the Cardinals, and we started started seeing
Speaker 1: it last week. JJ Watson jury actually is you know,
Speaker 1: does have an impact, especially on the run. Cliff Kingsbury
Speaker 1: entire his entire career is based around tanking in the
Speaker 1: second half, like you look at his college career, look
Speaker 1: at his pro career. This is what his teams do.
Speaker 1: It's like, all right, we're just gonna basically play, you know,
Speaker 1: you know, a three you know, win one out of
Speaker 1: every three games down the stretch here and then we
Speaker 1: But again, the injury concerns are really massive, because even
Speaker 1: if I thought Somer Francisco was going to win this game, regardless,
Speaker 1: it's not as much Hopkins.
Speaker 3: I think that's a big deal.
Speaker 2: A J.
Speaker 1: Green's obviously on the COVID list. We don't know if
Speaker 1: he's gonna play, but it's Murray, and it's the fact
Speaker 1: that it's his ankle, and if you take away Murray's mobility,
Speaker 1: that's worth so many points in a spread, which is
Speaker 1: why it's moving so significantly. So you know, for me,
Speaker 1: this is a spot where it just feels like the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers are gonna kind of go on a
Speaker 1: mini run here. They got the Rams next week, so
Speaker 1: who knows, But it just feels right now like the
Speaker 1: bill is coming due a little bit for the Cardinals
Speaker 1: and with a bang up Murray, as long as it
Speaker 1: stays under a field goal, please come on.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going on the bad side of doubtful Murray.
Speaker 2: I mean, and it's just the backup I believe is
Speaker 2: still a little inside of it is Chris Streveler, the
Speaker 2: former CFL quarterback and the last he is. He was
Speaker 2: on the Gray Cup champion Winnipeg Blue Bombers before Kingsbury
Speaker 2: signed him. But he's like he has a big arm,
Speaker 2: but he's mostly they used him on the goal line
Speaker 2: to like rush in touchdowns and he had twelve touchdowns
Speaker 2: in Uh. Is it still is McCoy the number two listed?
Speaker 3: Okay, I think it's I was just chelling.
Speaker 1: I was like, oh god, I had it wrong because
Speaker 1: I thought it was Colt McCoy.
Speaker 3: He is on the team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I I I don't know.
Speaker 3: Actually, to be fair, I guess that's true.
Speaker 1: I don't know whether or not.
Speaker 3: That's true.
Speaker 1: But regardless, I think we can safely say that it's
Speaker 1: a minor downgrade from Kyler Murray. Whoever it is. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's really what it is. And again, yeah, I was
Speaker 1: I mean.
Speaker 3: His his week.
Speaker 1: His injury was originally called like a one to three
Speaker 1: week thing. So the fact that they thought he was
Speaker 1: going to play is fine. And if you're the Cardinals,
Speaker 1: really because you're seven and one, this is a spot
Speaker 1: to rest him, I think, even against the divisional opponent.
Speaker 1: I know you want to hold off the Rams, but
Speaker 1: you've got long term plans here. This isn't the spot
Speaker 1: I think where you let that defensive line go after
Speaker 1: him and possibly injure him more.
Speaker 3: So if he sits.
Speaker 1: But even if he plays at this point, you know
Speaker 1: he's not going to be anywhere close to one hundred percent.
Speaker 1: So if you were listening to this and the spread
Speaker 1: is still under a field goal pounded and again God
Speaker 1: helped me. If the forty nine ers lose this game
Speaker 1: now with yeah, I have and if they lose it
Speaker 1: badly because I have so many teasers Andrew that I
Speaker 1: got just past when it was until it got past one,
Speaker 1: I was like, give me seven, give me them getting
Speaker 1: seven and a half, give me them an eight and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 2: Another one that I know we discussed a little bit
Speaker 2: off there that we were both on the same side here.
Speaker 2: So I'm going Chargers and I I have it down
Speaker 2: as minus too because it's the same thing less than
Speaker 2: a field goal. But now I'm seeing minus one a
Speaker 2: lot of places. I don't know if that okay, Yeah,
Speaker 2: it's still too okay. But I have been hearing that
Speaker 2: Sharps have been all over the Eagles the last few weeks,
Speaker 2: and it seems like the trend is continuing this week
Speaker 2: because I just saw the line. I saw it too,
Speaker 2: and I was like, that seems wrong to me. It
Speaker 2: just it just felt wrong. The Chargers are the better
Speaker 2: coach team by a mile. I think I have no
Speaker 2: way to Nick Sirianni at all when it comes to
Speaker 2: leading that team. They have a better quarterback than Justin Herbert. Yes,
Speaker 2: he's been struggling, I give him a little pass. Like
Speaker 2: the Phil Checks just seems to have the Chargers number,
Speaker 2: and he just knows how to deal with young quarterbacks
Speaker 2: better than most, or at least coaching against young quarterbacks
Speaker 2: better than most. And I think this is another guy
Speaker 2: who's gonna get a bit of a get right spot
Speaker 2: against an Eagles defense that I think is a little
Speaker 2: overrated and also a little banged up. At the same time,
Speaker 2: the Chargers also don't even have to deal with the
Speaker 2: West Coast. Hey, we've got to play early, and we
Speaker 2: have a morning game that it's in the late time slot,
Speaker 2: so it's a normal two pm start for them. Sort
Speaker 2: of thing, so I don't really get it. So obviously
Speaker 2: it's a very square play, and I've seen a lot
Speaker 2: of early public people on it. Call me square, I guess,
Speaker 2: but I just love this number. I think the Chargers
Speaker 2: win it by by at least a fuel goal, so
Speaker 2: I'm happy. I'll happily take the minus two minus one.
Speaker 2: Whatever you're gonna give me, I'll take it with them.
Speaker 1: It strikes me as just kind of a very very
Speaker 1: classic Bilo sell high. Right, everybody's off the Chargers because
Speaker 1: they look bad last week against New England. The Eagles
Speaker 1: finally dominated a game, you know, against the Lions. So look,
Speaker 1: that's right, it's got to count as half a win
Speaker 1: at best. I like the Eagles, I always have. I
Speaker 1: feel like they should be better. It was nice to
Speaker 1: see them win. But yeah, this is very simple, and
Speaker 1: you're right. I mean the four o'clock time, you know,
Speaker 1: the start for that. It's a pretty big deal because
Speaker 1: it is a thing for West Coast teams a lot
Speaker 1: of times to come east and take a one o'clock game.
Speaker 1: Their internal clocks just aren't right. This makes it a
Speaker 1: little easier, and I do think that the Chargers are
Speaker 1: just a better team. And again they're four and three.
Speaker 3: That's fine.
Speaker 1: They've lost a couple here, but Staley's great and he
Speaker 1: has them playing the right way. So you know, I
Speaker 1: don't think that the Eagles defense is strong enough to
Speaker 1: kind of, you know, make Herbert uncomfortable. So I think
Speaker 1: with that, I do think that they win by more
Speaker 1: than field goal. I agree, as long as it's thunderfield goal,
Speaker 1: I would have taken it. Yeah, the way it works,
Speaker 1: I've told everybody, like I get from our guests ever
Speaker 1: since week one, where Sean was sort of doubling up
Speaker 1: on all the same picks. I get the guests just
Speaker 1: today three, so I don't have it. And then when
Speaker 1: you get we can tell the public. I mean, were
Speaker 1: you were gonna take Miami laying six and a half,
Speaker 1: But then, of course we learned that Tarrod Taylor is
Speaker 1: going to start.
Speaker 3: That changed the equation.
Speaker 1: So in between I said, all right, well you were
Speaker 1: gonna change I said, all right, well I'm taking San
Speaker 1: Francisco and I saw that one from you. But you
Speaker 1: did mention this, and I would have taken this as well,
Speaker 1: So we are on the same side. I'm interested in
Speaker 1: hearing your thoughts on my next pick, because this one
Speaker 1: was something where when I first saw the line, I
Speaker 1: was on the other side, and then I dug into
Speaker 1: it a little bit and I came out with the
Speaker 1: Browns getting two and a half from the Bengals. This
Speaker 1: feels like the line is out there begging you to
Speaker 1: take the Bengals right Like maybe they think that the
Speaker 1: public's going to be a little off the Bengals because
Speaker 1: they lost to the Jets, but I feel like it's
Speaker 1: much more about how can anybody want to back the
Speaker 1: Browns right now because of all the drama they lost
Speaker 1: to the Steelers and you've got the Odell Beckham junior
Speaker 1: stuff going on. So this strikes me as if you're
Speaker 1: giving a team like the Bengals, who I think the
Speaker 1: public's really excited about despite the Jets loss and laying
Speaker 1: less than field goal to the Browns who are in disarray,
Speaker 1: it's just begging you to take the Bengals. And that's
Speaker 1: why I'm gonna take the rounds. I'm gonna wait because
Speaker 1: I mean, it's not gonna move anywhere. I'm gonna hope
Speaker 1: that it gets to three. I don't think it will.
Speaker 1: But if I'm gonna wait, so if you're in on this,
Speaker 1: I would wait.
Speaker 2: So if they're I haven't seen. I haven't seen the
Speaker 2: actual betting numbers, so these are for These are free
Speaker 2: play numbers for anyone who doesn't know. So it's not actual,
Speaker 2: it's not actual money wagers, but it's still a gauge.
Speaker 2: Like we have a pretty advanced, advanced community, and I
Speaker 2: would say an intelligent betting community, and they're they're on
Speaker 2: the Bengals right now. But it was something I noticed
Speaker 2: about the Bengals and that losses that they did not
Speaker 2: actle very well in that Jets game, and I expect
Speaker 2: that the Browns are just say here you go, Nick
Speaker 2: Chubb and let them let him do.
Speaker 1: His You are, you're doing my work for me, man,
Speaker 1: I love it well.
Speaker 3: I will say that again.
Speaker 1: We have the bet analyser over at Betting Pros as well,
Speaker 1: and we've got a bunch of people from around the
Speaker 1: industry who make picks and submit picks, including me, and
Speaker 1: they're right in line with what you have from covers,
Speaker 1: which is seventy six percent are taking the Bengals. So
Speaker 1: I don't mind that.
Speaker 3: I don't mind being there.
Speaker 1: But again, there's no reason not to wait, like it's
Speaker 1: not going anywhere. It's it's certainly not going down. Maybe
Speaker 1: it gets to three. So again, wait and if it
Speaker 1: gets to three, that's gonna be my official player, right
Speaker 1: because I have said that you should wait everybody for
Speaker 1: the record. It's on there, and if I tell you
Speaker 1: if it goes down to two, that'll be my wherever
Speaker 1: it is by the time we close, That's where I'm
Speaker 1: gonna take it. But I think what it is is
Speaker 1: I think the Bengals are overrated, man like that. That's
Speaker 1: what it boils down to. I think the Browns just
Speaker 1: as a whole, like looking at the entire team versus
Speaker 1: the entire team, I think the Browns are a better team.
Speaker 1: And you look at just DVOA, right, not the be
Speaker 1: all end all, but the total overall DVA Browns are
Speaker 1: six and the Bengals are twenty first. And then you know,
Speaker 1: so the Brown's a had a lot of injuries that
Speaker 1: they've dealt with for most of the season, but they're
Speaker 1: getting a lot healthier. I think their offense plays well,
Speaker 1: you mentioned it, you know, I think that you know,
Speaker 1: the Bengals have issues tackling. I think that they're going
Speaker 1: to be a lot of Nick Chubb here as he's
Speaker 1: healthier after coming back last week. And I think I
Speaker 1: don't want to put too much stock into like the
Speaker 1: mental part of it, but Odo Beckham Junior is not
Speaker 1: going to play here.
Speaker 3: It's been a huge distraction.
Speaker 1: It strikes me as a rallying cry for a team
Speaker 1: that's very good and needs sort of a point to
Speaker 1: come together, and that kind of is what I think
Speaker 1: we're going to see here.
Speaker 3: And again, I backed the Steelers correctly.
Speaker 1: Against the Browns last week, and one of the big
Speaker 1: things I had was that the Steelers are able to
Speaker 1: get pressure without blitzing. That is something that really messes
Speaker 1: up Baker Mayfield. You've just seen it throughout his career.
Speaker 1: That's not what the Bengals do. The Bengals don't get
Speaker 1: a ton of pressure. Twenty four point nine percent pressure rate,
Speaker 1: that's like middle of the road. And again, with the
Speaker 1: Browns getting a little healthier on the offensive line, at least,
Speaker 1: I think their offense is going to do well. Conversely,
Speaker 1: again selling the Bengals a little bit, you know, I
Speaker 1: think really their you know, their record is good obviously,
Speaker 1: but I think their reputation is inflated a little bit
Speaker 1: because of that beatdown of the Ravens. They've lost to
Speaker 1: the Jets, they beat the Jaguars by three, and they've
Speaker 1: lost to the Bears. Okay, this is not a dominant
Speaker 1: team by any means. And Burrow is sort of like
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield, by the way, is that he struggles when
Speaker 1: you get pressure without blitzing, sort of, you know, like
Speaker 1: I figured the Steelers would. The Browns are pretty much
Speaker 1: the same. Twenty seven point eight percent pressure rate that's
Speaker 1: fifth in the league, but just a twenty one point
Speaker 1: seven percent blitz rate that's eleventh lowest in the league.
Speaker 1: So that's how you get to Burrow. Javian Clowney didn't practice.
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's gonna play, but Miles Garrett
Speaker 1: is gonna play, and that's really what you need to
Speaker 1: get the pressure. So I don't know, man, this is
Speaker 1: a spot for me for the Browns. The money line
Speaker 1: is plus one fifteen. It's you know whatever. I'll probably
Speaker 1: sprinkle on that because if you're going to take a
Speaker 1: short dog, you might.
Speaker 3: As well sprinkle the money line. But I'm gonna go
Speaker 3: with the Browns.
Speaker 1: And I realize, like you said, I'm in the minority here,
Speaker 1: but I don't know, man, After looking at it for
Speaker 1: a while, I actually think the Browns escape here. And
Speaker 1: again the homefield advantage, by the way, it doesn't really
Speaker 1: mean anything when it's Cincinnati versus Cleveland in the divisional game.
Speaker 3: So anyway, so.
Speaker 2: I'm going to money football and I am We've you
Speaker 2: talked a bit about the Steelers there a second ago,
Speaker 2: and I'm actually going to fade the Steelers this week. Again,
Speaker 2: I think these are two okay teams. That's a good
Speaker 2: way to do. I think the Steelers are a little
Speaker 2: more okay than the Bears at this point. Obviously, the
Speaker 2: Steelers got their big win last week, but their big
Speaker 2: win it's the stead of them scoring to fifteen points
Speaker 2: and he's on his He's said it looked to me
Speaker 2: it looks like his arms hanging by a thread for
Speaker 2: the most part. And I just don't see them covering
Speaker 2: six and a half points they've been at the Sealers
Speaker 2: have been a terrible bet as a favorite so far,
Speaker 2: and I expect that to continue against a team like
Speaker 2: the Bears. And while they do get the Steelers do
Speaker 2: get good pressure. Some One who can handle pressure is
Speaker 2: a guy like Justin Fields, who can improvise and make
Speaker 2: things happen with his legs like we saw last week.
Speaker 2: And I expect this to be another low scoring game. Obviously,
Speaker 2: the total is only forty, so it's expected to be
Speaker 2: a low scoring game, and will them there is Obviously
Speaker 2: it's not a double digit. But you're getting almost a feel,
Speaker 2: almost a touchdown with the Bears, and that's pretty much
Speaker 2: as simple as it as it is for me. I
Speaker 2: like getting all these points with the Bears. I like
Speaker 2: the dynamic play of Justin Fields. I'm a big Justin
Speaker 2: Fields guy. I really hope they start. Oh I was.
Speaker 2: I was really big coming with him coming into the draft.
Speaker 2: I thought he should have been the number two guy
Speaker 2: taken after after Lawrence. But hopefully I didn't mind not
Speaker 2: seeing Maggie on the sideline. I think he would benefit
Speaker 2: from a little another guy who would benefit from a
Speaker 2: different head coach as well. But if they just let him,
Speaker 2: I think so as well. But if they just kind
Speaker 2: of like let him loose, I think he can do
Speaker 2: do enough against this Steelers defense to keep this one
Speaker 2: close and to cover that six and a half point spread.
Speaker 2: So I just don't have it mostly a Steelers offense thing. Don't.
Speaker 2: I don't see them being able to cover a six
Speaker 2: and a half point spread at this point. So that's
Speaker 2: why I'm on the dogs in this one.
Speaker 3: I'm not on the other side.
Speaker 1: I will promise you that there's no way you can
Speaker 1: back the Steelers as six and a half point favorites.
Speaker 3: I mean, follow Mike Tomlin.
Speaker 1: That's not a spot you back a Mike Tomalin mud
Speaker 1: Steelers team, for sure. And I agree they can't score,
Speaker 1: you know, and the Bears still have a passable defense.
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a close game here,
Speaker 1: and I like the under as well. Like I understand
Speaker 1: the unders low, I'm not betting it, but at forty
Speaker 1: I still think it's going to be low.
Speaker 3: And you're right. Whenever you see a spread that's creeping
Speaker 3: up towards.
Speaker 1: A touchdown with a total that low, something is off there,
Speaker 1: and I agree with you there. So if I had
Speaker 1: to pick a side, I would go with the Bears
Speaker 1: for sure, and again hopefully even with naggy back, they
Speaker 1: continue to roll out fields and let him use his
Speaker 1: legs because the game plan last week was a game
Speaker 1: changer for him and clearly accentuated his strength. So I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna run away from it. I'm going to a
Speaker 1: total for my last one. It's not exciting, but I've
Speaker 1: been recommending a lot of unders on this podcast, as
Speaker 1: our our listeners remind me, So I am going to
Speaker 1: go over, and I missed a couple in a row,
Speaker 1: so I'm going to go with an over one here,
Speaker 1: and it's the Vikings and the Ravens over forty nine
Speaker 1: and a half. This whole thing just strikes me as
Speaker 1: a high scoring game when I looked into it. The
Speaker 1: Ravens should put up a ton of points after the bye.
Speaker 1: They're always good under Harbaugh after a bye, the offense
Speaker 1: getting healthier. Rashad Bateman is fully there. I guess Sammy
Speaker 1: Watkins probably will come back, and the Minnesota defense, and
Speaker 1: this is really what doesn't for me.
Speaker 3: They're just absolutely destroyed by injuries, like they're.
Speaker 1: Just forget about how how poorly they had played. Regardless
Speaker 1: no Daniel Hunter. That's a huge loss for them, obviously.
Speaker 1: Patrick Peterson already on I don't think Cam Downson is
Speaker 1: going to suit uphu miuspractice again today. Michael Pierce may
Speaker 1: still not play. They're just they're devastated. I see the
Speaker 1: Ravens basically being able to score almost at will. And
Speaker 1: the Vikings obviously had a tough game offensively, you know,
Speaker 1: last week there, but this is sort of a good
Speaker 1: matchup for them because the one thing that Kirk Cousins
Speaker 1: really does well is he does very well against the blitz.
Speaker 1: That's just kind of his m O. And the Ravens
Speaker 1: they don't really care. They're not going to stop blitzing
Speaker 1: because a quarterback does well. They blitz all the time,
Speaker 1: fifth highest clip in the league. And this is sort
Speaker 1: of when I buy Kirk Cousins and the Vikings when
Speaker 1: they look like crap the week before and it looks
Speaker 1: like they can't do anything, and then they're gonna come
Speaker 1: up and they're gonna put up thirty two points. So
Speaker 1: not taking them against spread, but I think there's a
Speaker 1: lot of scoring in this one, So I'm going to
Speaker 1: go with the over forty nine and a half.
Speaker 3: There are some fifties out there.
Speaker 1: I'm okay with fifty as well, but my official play
Speaker 1: is forty nine and a half.
Speaker 3: All right, quickly, what do you think of that one?
Speaker 2: He's instant pressure on a team for a team, and
Speaker 2: it's just it's really tough to see that, and while
Speaker 2: I am not a Kirk Cousins guy, that's the numberson
Speaker 2: saying that he's been at least okay, this is yearlight,
Speaker 2: so yeah, and this is not the Ravens defense we've
Speaker 2: been we've been accustomed to over there, So if you
Speaker 2: had to make me take a bed here, it'd probably
Speaker 2: be the over.
Speaker 3: I am making you take a bet, and you are
Speaker 3: taking the over, so we're good, all right. Very quickly,
Speaker 3: let's recap.
Speaker 1: You've got the Chiefs team total over twenty seven and
Speaker 1: a half, the Chargers laying two to the Eagles, and
Speaker 1: the Bears getting six and a half from the Steelers.
Speaker 1: I'm taking the forty nine Ers now laying two to
Speaker 1: the Cardinals, which just keeps moving right now, the Browns
Speaker 1: plus two and a half against the Bengals, but again,
Speaker 1: if it goes to three, I get it because I'm
Speaker 1: not betting it yet. And the Vikings and Ravens over
Speaker 1: forty nine and a half. Very quickly, let's run through
Speaker 1: the remaining spreads. How do you feel about the Bills
Speaker 1: laying fourteen and a half to the Jaguars in Jacksonville?
Speaker 2: Probably have to take the flour or lay the points. There.
Speaker 2: Jacksonville is a complete stay away from me, like you
Speaker 2: can Faye Jacksonville, I think can just be pretty happy
Speaker 2: with that to the way the situation is going there.
Speaker 2: I just no faith in what the Jags are doing
Speaker 2: right now. So and the Bills, I think, obviously Josh
Speaker 2: Allen is going to try to make a little noise
Speaker 2: about whether or not he should actually be the MVP
Speaker 2: of the league this year. So you see a big
Speaker 2: game from Josh Allen, I expect.
Speaker 3: I'm in agreeing with you.
Speaker 1: There's no way I could back the whereas under any circumstances.
Speaker 1: I will also say that eighty nine percent of our
Speaker 1: experts are taking the Bills laying the points. So there
Speaker 1: you go, Tennessee visiting the Rams on Monday night football.
Speaker 1: I believe no Sunday Night football seven and a half
Speaker 1: the Rams are laying What.
Speaker 2: Do you think there is another one of these weird ones,
Speaker 2: Like I don't think the Titans will be able to
Speaker 2: stop the Rams, but I still think it's too many
Speaker 2: points of probably getting more than a touchdown. The team
Speaker 2: that I think is probably better than that, Like I'll
Speaker 2: probably I'll side with the underdog here. Well, I'll just
Speaker 2: say it. We're taking the underdog plus seven and a half.
Speaker 2: I like more than the touchdown in this spot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it when it first came out. It
Speaker 1: with seven and I had the rams there and more
Speaker 1: in a touchdown. I need to dig into it. Just
Speaker 1: that Titans have some magic man. Even without Derek Henry,
Speaker 1: they managed to keep things close. So I'm going to
Speaker 1: sit out for now on it. I need to rethink.
Speaker 1: But more than a touchdowns really hard to refuse. He
Speaker 1: already talked about the Chargers and the Eagles. We already
Speaker 1: talked about the Browns and the Bengals. How about an
Speaker 1: interesting one. It's a lot tough because we don't know
Speaker 1: who's going to be a quarterback. But the Patriots are
Speaker 1: visiting the Panthers, and the Patriots are laying three and
Speaker 1: a half points.
Speaker 2: Probably the pass Darnald just has, even if he is
Speaker 2: able to go in this game, he has taken. He
Speaker 2: has reverted to your Sam Donald of the Jets, and
Speaker 2: as it looked so great to the last I still
Speaker 2: don't understand why they don't try to get Robbie Anderson
Speaker 2: the ball more. Obviously, Tuba Hubbard is not Christian McCaffrey
Speaker 2: and that hurts, and they've had some injuries on defense
Speaker 2: as well. So the Patriots are playing well, they're gonna
Speaker 2: have a shot out of playoff spot, so it would
Speaker 2: probably be the past. I'd like it to be three.
Speaker 2: I'd prefer three, and I think it was three at
Speaker 2: one point. Yeah, but some paths was come in obviously,
Speaker 2: so a little less happy about that. Yeah.
Speaker 3: I mean, if it's p J.
Speaker 1: Walker, I can't back that. I mean, really, how much
Speaker 1: of a downgrade could he be from Donald at this point?
Speaker 3: But I think I lean towards the Panthers.
Speaker 1: I think just their defense right now, well as it's
Speaker 1: getting so much healthier. I really think it's going to
Speaker 1: be tough for the page. I mean, I wouldn't mind
Speaker 1: the under. It's a low total, obviously, but I think
Speaker 1: if I had to pick, I might just take the
Speaker 1: hook with the Panthers. But it's it's certainly a stay
Speaker 1: away from me. We didn't talk about the side on
Speaker 1: this one, but Baltimore laying six to.
Speaker 2: The Vikings, I'd stay away.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would stay away as well. And this could
Speaker 1: strike me as a game that the Vikings could keep close.
Speaker 1: It's going to be high scoring, that's the one thing
Speaker 1: I think, so we'll go with that. Dallas is laying
Speaker 1: ten points to the underdog.
Speaker 2: There's I know, I know the Broncos have been a
Speaker 2: bit of a disaster in the in the second month season.
Speaker 2: But the Cowboys, I guess the Cowboys, I know they're good,
Speaker 2: and I know Dak is back, and it's just I
Speaker 2: don't have faith in them to cover a double digit spread.
Speaker 2: So we're gonna go with the underdogs. And I know
Speaker 2: the they just got rid of Bond Miller. The Broncos
Speaker 2: got rid of von Miller, but.
Speaker 3: And Bryce Calaan is injured.
Speaker 1: But still, I just think it's too many points.
Speaker 3: I don't want to have to take them.
Speaker 1: I probably won't, but it's a hold your nose and
Speaker 1: take the Broncos, right, Yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, This one's an interesting one.
Speaker 1: The Raiders, who obviously, you know, are dealing with everything
Speaker 1: that they've got there visiting the Giants and they're laying
Speaker 1: three points to the Giants.
Speaker 2: Do you think that brings them together? They have kind
Speaker 2: of a bringing together move for the team, Like obviously
Speaker 2: they're not trying to win it for Henry Ruggs or
Speaker 2: anything like that, but it could gell them a bit
Speaker 2: and the Giants obviously a bit of a letdown. They're
Speaker 2: coming up a bit of a letdown, almost beating the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: and then you come home. Sometimes that's the spot where
Speaker 2: you kind of get spanked. I probably side with the
Speaker 2: Raiders here. They have played well since or played better
Speaker 2: again since Gruden's been gone, so I probably lean that way.
Speaker 3: I'm surprised. I mean, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I didn't you didn't know how the Raiders were going
Speaker 1: to react when Gruden left, and they rallied so they
Speaker 1: could rally here. But are a much better team than
Speaker 1: the Giants. I mean, that's the bottom line. Giants are
Speaker 1: in a short week, and regardless of who is or
Speaker 1: is not healthy, I mean, we assume Saquon Barkley's not
Speaker 1: gonna be able to play this game regardless.
Speaker 3: So I have to go with their Raiders.
Speaker 1: But it does feel a little bit like a trap,
Speaker 1: Like I feel like the spread should be more like
Speaker 1: four or four and a halfs, So I feel like
Speaker 1: it's asking us to take the Raiders. But I'm gonna
Speaker 1: walk into the trap. It's fine if I have to.
Speaker 1: H What do you think about the Saints at home?
Speaker 1: Link six and a half to the Falcons.
Speaker 2: I'm actually looking at the under there. This was the
Speaker 2: other one I was tossing up before, and I was like,
Speaker 2: you were saying all your unders, though, I was like this, Oh,
Speaker 2: I was wondering if he was gonna take this one
Speaker 2: because I don't know what. The Saints weren't exactly electric
Speaker 2: with Jamis Wilson under which with Jameis Winston under center,
Speaker 2: and now it's it sounds like Taysom Hill is gonna
Speaker 2: be the guy obviously. I mean, played pretty well last
Speaker 2: week in their win against the Bucks, but I'm not
Speaker 2: expecting that to really continue. And Matt Ryan as obviously,
Speaker 2: that's no Calvin Ridley for him anymore. It's the Falcons
Speaker 2: offenses has been an absolute mess. So I think this
Speaker 2: is like a twenty to seventeen kind of game, and
Speaker 2: I will happily take the under.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't argue with that. I don't want any
Speaker 1: piece of this of the side at all. I'm staying
Speaker 1: far away from it. What do you think about the
Speaker 1: Chiefs link seven and a half to the Jordan Love
Speaker 1: lead Packers been.
Speaker 2: Just such a bad bath. It's so terrible, like they
Speaker 2: should like they should cover, they should have covered last
Speaker 2: week we did. We were talking about this. I don't
Speaker 2: I would stay away from this. I'll maybe u I'll
Speaker 2: maybe put a few chiefs teezers, like.
Speaker 1: You got to tease it down, exactly, you got it's
Speaker 1: begging you to tease it down. I don't care. I've
Speaker 1: got to tease it down, which I have in several
Speaker 1: spots I've teased it down. Ah, the Dolphins laying I
Speaker 1: think it's our last game. Yeah, the Dolphins like five
Speaker 1: and a half now with with Torod Taylor there to
Speaker 1: the Texans in that.
Speaker 2: Like you mentioned, I liked the Dolphins when it was
Speaker 2: gonna be Davis Mills there because the exits haven't been
Speaker 2: defending the pass that well recently. And two was actually
Speaker 2: thrown the ball well against bad teams. When he has
Speaker 2: not played the Bills of the Patriots this year, he's
Speaker 2: played fairly well, and I thought he would have kind
Speaker 2: of a nice like comeback game for him. But with mister,
Speaker 2: I think Tyron's covered eight straight games that he started
Speaker 2: and you're giving him all those points. He lost a
Speaker 2: couple there, but it's a weird. The Dolphins now give
Speaker 2: me a weird feeling, and it's a big stay away
Speaker 2: for me.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm staying away from it too.
Speaker 1: I like some props in this game, like I've got
Speaker 1: the over Devonte Parker receiving props. That's where I think
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go, Oh yeah, we didn't.
Speaker 3: Talk about that.
Speaker 1: Did you want to give a prop? Because I know
Speaker 1: we had said, oh do we want to? We want
Speaker 1: to stay away from it right now.
Speaker 2: I don't think I didn't dive deep enough into any
Speaker 2: of this year to really to really get ones that
Speaker 2: I feel really confident about.
Speaker 1: If you want more props, okay, if you want props,
Speaker 1: I do as video that I recorded earlier today with
Speaker 1: my five favorite props at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.
Speaker 3: Go ahead and subscribe. And also I give Matt Perolt.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be able to be on the Betting
Speaker 1: Pros livestream on Sundays at eleven this week.
Speaker 3: I've got to do a Fantasy Pros one.
Speaker 1: Sorry about that, but I will give Matt a couple
Speaker 1: of my favorite player props. But Devonte Parker receiving yards prop,
Speaker 1: that's the over that you want on that one? All right,
Speaker 1: very good? I like your picks. Let me recap them
Speaker 1: one more time, just so everybody has everything together.
Speaker 3: You've got the Chiefs team total over.
Speaker 1: Twenty seven and a half, the Chargers laying two to
Speaker 1: the Eagles, and the Bears getting six and a half
Speaker 1: from the Steelers. I've got the forty nine Ers laying
Speaker 1: two to the Cardinals, the Browns getting two and a
Speaker 1: half from the Bengals, and the Vikings.
Speaker 3: And the Ravens over forty nine and a half.
Speaker 1: Andrew, you have a very busy Thursday night football ahead
Speaker 1: of you, as I know, so just very quickly tell
Speaker 1: everybody where they check out all your great work, and
Speaker 1: then let's schedule another time where we want Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 1: to have some sort of drop perfect.
Speaker 2: You can find me on Twitter at Covers Underscore Kaylee.
Speaker 2: Lots of football at this point obviously, and some Raptors
Speaker 2: stuff as well. And I'm covering the Raptors pretty exclusively
Speaker 2: from a betting perspective as well. So if you if
Speaker 2: you're into the NBA and the Raptors, I'm gonna be
Speaker 2: your guy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's too bad I'm missing out on all your
Speaker 1: Blue Jays bets, but that was a favorite part of
Speaker 1: my baseball season. In the meantime. Congratulations so much on
Speaker 1: getting married and your honeymoon. Again, very sorry I missed it.
Speaker 1: I hopefully you know I can be there when you
Speaker 1: need a.
Speaker 3: Godfather for your future child. You're on the short list,
Speaker 3: all right, my friend.
Speaker 1: I love it of course. Again, thank you for joining us.
Speaker 1: Everybody again. Check out the live stream on Sunday morning,
Speaker 1: eleven am to noon Eastern on YouTube dot com slash
Speaker 1: Betting Pros. Until then, I'll talk to you again on
Speaker 1: Monday when we look at the early week ten NFL lines.
Speaker 3: I will talk to you though
Speaker 2: It is