WEBVTT - Week 9 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 125) 0:00:13.560 --> 0:00:16.640 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast, brought 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:19.640 to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:21.680 Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is 0:00:21.680 --> 0:00:24.160 week nine. It is time to talk about our best 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:26.680 bets for the weekend. And to do that with me 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:29.720 is Andrew Cayley, senior betting analyst over at Covers. Find 0:00:29.760 --> 0:00:34.080 him at Twitter at Underscore. No wait, sorry, Saratt, what's 0:00:34.080 --> 0:00:36.600 your Twitter handle? And I totally messed up Covered? 0:00:36.680 --> 0:00:39.360 Kley is out Underscore, Kaylee. 0:00:40.200 --> 0:00:42.640 I totally messed it up. I totally messed it up 0:00:42.800 --> 0:00:46.000 Covers Underscore Kaylee c A l e Y. We're off 0:00:46.000 --> 0:00:50.120 to a brilliant start, Andrew, despite me mangling your Twitter handle? 0:00:50.440 --> 0:00:51.640 How are you? Thanks for joining me. 0:00:51.880 --> 0:00:54.120 I'm doing very well. I'm happy that I could figure 0:00:54.120 --> 0:00:57.080 out all my technology. I was away for a couple 0:00:57.120 --> 0:00:59.520 of weeks from from the betting boards for my wedding 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:02.480 and a little honeymoons. So ready to get back into 0:01:02.520 --> 0:01:04.960 the action right now. So hopefully I don't disappoint a 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:05.679 little rusty. 0:01:05.959 --> 0:01:08.200 Yeah, apologies again. 0:01:08.640 --> 0:01:10.400 I know you had me asked me to be your 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:10.800 best man. 0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:11.640 I couldn't make it. 0:01:11.760 --> 0:01:14.200 I'm really sorry, a very busy weekend for me just 0:01:14.240 --> 0:01:16.240 with the NFL, you know, so well, it's great to 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:19.360 have you back. Congratulations like getting married. I'm kidding, obviously, 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:22.880 I'm kidding. And again, you know we've got some Aaron 0:01:22.959 --> 0:01:26.720 Rodgers drama. Last time you were here back in probably 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:29.320 week two, and we were doing it during the Monday 0:01:29.400 --> 0:01:32.679 night football game and before things turned around, which they 0:01:32.760 --> 0:01:35.920 ultimately did in that game. While we were watching, they 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:38.160 looked like they were about to lose again and it 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:40.399 was the Is Rogers tanking. And now we have the 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:42.280 whole thing with him going to miss this game with 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:44.600 COVID nineteen. So this might be your last time on 0:01:44.640 --> 0:01:46.880 the podcast if our Green Bay fans. 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:48.480 Had anything to do with it, because they're going to 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:49.360 be pretty pick Yea. 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:52.080 I guess I'm unlucky. I'm sorry, I'm sorry. 0:01:52.720 --> 0:01:54.400 No, no, no, it's all right, it's all right, don't 0:01:54.400 --> 0:01:56.080 worry about it. All right, So let's get to it. 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:57.960 Three best bets of the weekend for each of us, 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:01.160 whether we're doing spreads, totals, teamed totals, money line, whatever 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:04.040 we want. Then we'll very quickly run through the remaining 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:05.680 spreads and just talk about if we have a lean 0:02:05.800 --> 0:02:08.040 or if it's a total stay away for both of us. 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:10.720 But first, our latest offware from bet MGM. New customers 0:02:10.720 --> 0:02:13.760 can bet ten dollars on any team to win an 0:02:13.840 --> 0:02:16.800 NFL game and win two hundred dollars in free bets. 0:02:16.960 --> 0:02:20.399 If the team they bets on scores a touchdown. That's 0:02:20.440 --> 0:02:23.760 it again, bet ten dollars win two hundred dollars in 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:26.800 free bets at the team that you bet on scores 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:30.320 a touchdown. That is available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, 0:02:30.360 --> 0:02:35.880 West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona, 0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:40.560 and Wyoming. The code there is Juice one hundred. That's 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:42.640 the promo code to be able to get that offer again. 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:45.720 Juice one hundred from our podcast, The Daily Juice Daily 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:47.720 every single day with Matt Prault. 0:02:47.919 --> 0:02:49.600 All right, very quickly, let's run through last week. 0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:51.320 Our guest Ryan Noonan had a nice week two and 0:02:51.360 --> 0:02:53.400 one hit on the Cowboys, getting one and a half 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:56.200 from the Vikings the Rams team total over thirty and 0:02:56.240 --> 0:02:58.480 a half, but he did miss on the Bucks slaying 0:02:58.480 --> 0:02:59.760 five and a half to the Saints. 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:01.120 I went one and two again. 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:03.560 Unfortunately, I did hit on the Steelers, getting three and 0:03:03.560 --> 0:03:05.839 a half from the Browns, which was my favorite bet, 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:09.040 but I missed on both my totals, the under fifteen 0:03:09.040 --> 0:03:10.359 and a half in the Bucks and the Saints and 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:12.560 the under fifty one on the Colts and Titans. That 0:03:12.600 --> 0:03:14.760 puts me at fourteen and ten on the season fifty 0:03:14.800 --> 0:03:18.000 eight percent. So that's fine, but let's do better this time. 0:03:18.040 --> 0:03:20.760 Remember I'm going to be using the Betting prosconsensus line 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:23.560 bettingpros dot Com consensus lines that'll show you lines available 0:03:23.760 --> 0:03:26.480 at all the various books, but also the aggregate of 0:03:26.520 --> 0:03:28.240 all the lines that are there. You can fade us, 0:03:28.240 --> 0:03:29.840 you can follow us, you can do whatever you want. 0:03:30.280 --> 0:03:33.600 Let's get started. Andrew, you are our guests. Please your 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:34.440 first selection. 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:40.000 I am going with the Chiefs team total over twenty 0:03:40.040 --> 0:03:42.520 seven and a half. I'd take it over twenty eight. 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:45.760 That's a juice to about minus one depending on the book. 0:03:46.960 --> 0:03:51.200 I know the Chiefs look broken right now. It's it's 0:03:50.840 --> 0:03:53.800 as a guy. I have many shares in Patrick Mahomes 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:57.280 in my Dynasty Fantasy football leagues, and it's been a 0:03:57.280 --> 0:04:01.840 little iffy recently. But there's no Aaron Rodgers this week, 0:04:01.920 --> 0:04:04.640 and the total immediately dropped from about fifty five and 0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:07.920 a half to forty eight and a half forty eight ish, 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:10.440 So a better touchdown he's worth a better touchdown. But 0:04:10.480 --> 0:04:14.920 I'm trying not to look at what the Rogers being 0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:16.919 gone will mean to the game overall, and I'm just 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:18.680 going to try to focus on the Chiefs and that 0:04:18.760 --> 0:04:22.159 makes it a little easier for me. Like as they said, 0:04:22.200 --> 0:04:24.440 the Chiefs obviously look broken on offense, but I'm going 0:04:24.480 --> 0:04:26.680 to give them a little bit more faith for at 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:29.520 least one more week. The Packers have already lost several 0:04:29.600 --> 0:04:33.200 key guys on defense this year, and that's a defense 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:36.040 that rings twenty second in Dvoa right now. And now 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:37.680 they have the several more guys who are questionable over 0:04:37.760 --> 0:04:40.760 Elier this week, and now we get the Jordan Love experience, 0:04:41.080 --> 0:04:44.040 and I'm not sure what we're gonna get out of 0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:46.240 the pan. If we get I expect him to give 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:50.279 the Chiefs at least one, if not multiple short fields, 0:04:50.279 --> 0:04:52.240 So I think that could help their scoring a bit 0:04:52.600 --> 0:04:55.800 in this game as well, And I think they're going 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:58.440 to want to show that they're not broken anymore. But 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:00.599 what I've seen My biggest issue from what I've seen 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:03.720 from the Chiefs right now is that Pafrick Mahomes is 0:05:04.080 --> 0:05:06.360 me moving out of the pocket too quickly right now. 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:09.000 And I understand why. I get it. That offensive line 0:05:09.040 --> 0:05:12.360 has been pretty terrible, but it's been so terrible to 0:05:12.400 --> 0:05:15.160 point now. He's moving before the pressure gets there, and 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:19.280 he's running around and he's forcing frozy. He's always forced 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:21.320 throw tea shut and he has that ability and he 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:23.760 trusts his arm a little too much at times, but 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:26.800 it's been to the extreme at this point. So I 0:05:27.200 --> 0:05:29.159 think that the Packers aren't going to get much of 0:05:29.200 --> 0:05:31.760 a pass rush on him in this game, so he'll 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:33.600 be able to settle down a little bit more and 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:36.560 just trust his arm a bit, and they'll be able 0:05:36.600 --> 0:05:38.200 to show that there's still a team that needs to 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:40.400 fear on offense this week. So we're gonna go over 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:41.839 twenty seven and a half team total. 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:45.200 I can't try you on this one. 0:05:45.800 --> 0:05:49.040 And really, I well, here's the thing. Why didn't they 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:51.640 show it this week? I mean a Monday night football 0:05:51.640 --> 0:05:55.760 game at home against the Giants. That seems like the shot, right, 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:57.760 That seems like this is where they're gonna get, right, 0:05:57.800 --> 0:06:00.160 this is what they're gonna do, and they looked as 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:03.720 broken as ever. I mean, is this just the you know, 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:06.279 the Packers don't get a great pass rush the Giants 0:06:06.360 --> 0:06:09.160 zone either generally speaking, but the Packers don't get a 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:11.400 great pass rush and they're injured, and you just kind 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:13.760 of expect, because you have so much faith in what 0:06:13.800 --> 0:06:15.840 they've done in the past, that they're just gonna happen 0:06:15.880 --> 0:06:16.400 to get right in this. 0:06:16.640 --> 0:06:19.080 But the Leonard Williams is that's the type of thing 0:06:19.120 --> 0:06:20.680 that the Bucks did well. You go right up the 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:22.360 middle and you get them, you get them out of 0:06:22.400 --> 0:06:25.239 the pocket right away. And I agree, yes, they probably 0:06:25.240 --> 0:06:27.880 should have done it against the Giants as well, but 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:30.920 this is I think this is just a spot where 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:32.960 this is a get right spot for them, and I 0:06:33.000 --> 0:06:35.880 think they'd do it. And I it's still trust what 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:37.719 I see in the talent on that team. I still 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:40.039 think they're well coached. I think Andy Reid is kind 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:42.359 of like overthinking things a little bit with some of 0:06:42.360 --> 0:06:45.839 these goal line plays at times that that does trouble 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:49.120 me a little bit. Like they'll be running these draws 0:06:49.240 --> 0:06:51.880 on first and goal from the nine where they get 0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:54.240 zero yards and then they do a trick play and 0:06:54.279 --> 0:06:56.279 then you're like, oh, it's just a regular pass, Like, 0:06:56.320 --> 0:06:59.240 just do your regular play. Sets in the goal to 0:06:59.240 --> 0:07:01.440 go situation and they'll be fine. That they have the 0:07:01.480 --> 0:07:03.400 talent they have that they can do it. They just 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:05.200 have to trust themselves a little more, and I think 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:08.120 I think they do that well. 0:07:08.160 --> 0:07:10.280 I certainly hope you are correct. I'm going to be 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:12.280 watching this from the sidelines. I'd like the Chiefs to 0:07:12.280 --> 0:07:15.480 get right, and again I have faith that they will eventually, 0:07:15.600 --> 0:07:18.360 like because Mahomes is too good, Read. 0:07:18.280 --> 0:07:18.800 Is too good. 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:21.040 But for now, I'm just going to watch it from 0:07:21.040 --> 0:07:23.560 the sidelines. But I am really interested to see what 0:07:23.560 --> 0:07:25.160 this game looks like right now. I think the spread 0:07:25.160 --> 0:07:27.600 has jumped from one and a half to seven and 0:07:27.640 --> 0:07:31.360 a half when the move is made there at the quarterback, 0:07:31.400 --> 0:07:33.680 So I look forward to watching. I'm going to take 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:35.880 a game that I know you were on as well, 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:37.960 so you know, I feel good that I took it, 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:41.040 except for the fact that the spread is moving in 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:45.600 a crazy fashion, which isn't surprising given the injuries. So 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:48.280 I will take where the consensus line is at the 0:07:48.360 --> 0:07:53.520 time that we make this pick, which is the. 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:58.000 Forty nine ers. Now laying two to the Cardinals. 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:01.160 Now, I will tell you that I have so much 0:08:01.200 --> 0:08:04.880 action on this game because it was originally the Cardinals 0:08:05.360 --> 0:08:07.160 laying two and a half to the forty nine Ers. 0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:09.920 So I have teased the forty nine ers up already 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:12.520 twice in two different teasers to eight and a half. 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:14.160 Then when it went to one and a half, I 0:08:14.200 --> 0:08:16.080 tease them up to seven and a half. Now, when 0:08:16.120 --> 0:08:18.400 I was doing this this morning, it was the forty 0:08:18.480 --> 0:08:21.240 nine ers laying one. The consensus line is now two. 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:23.280 There are still some ones out there, some one and 0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:23.600 a half. 0:08:23.960 --> 0:08:24.560 It's at two. 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:27.280 That's fine. I'm willing to do it, but it takes 0:08:27.280 --> 0:08:30.280 away my money line bet. So again it's moving because 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:32.640 of the injury concerns. I'm sure again we're doing this 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:36.160 on Thursday, before the Thursday night football game. Neither Kyler 0:08:36.240 --> 0:08:39.160 Murray nor DeAndre Hopkins practice this week. There was a 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:42.240 report earlier in the week did they expect Kyler Murray 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:44.800 to go? But even if he goes, he's going to 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:47.920 be extremely limited. But even without that, okay, like take 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:50.280 that away, give them full strength. I still kind of 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:54.800 think the forty nine ers are going to win this game. Regardless. First, 0:08:55.280 --> 0:08:57.280 they should have beaten them last game, right, I mean, 0:08:57.320 --> 0:08:59.679 that's the thing. They had Trey Lance right starting his 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:03.080 first start. They almost scored, you know, they got stuffed 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:05.240 at the goal line. They couldn't convert a fourth down. 0:09:05.280 --> 0:09:08.079 They were very close throughout that. They wound up losing 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:10.160 seventeen to ten, but easily a game that they could win. 0:09:10.200 --> 0:09:13.160 The forty nine ers are getting healthier. Everything I've seen 0:09:13.200 --> 0:09:14.960 suggest that George Kittle is going to be able to 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:17.160 make it back for this game, which not only helps 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:20.560 their passing game, but also helps their running game because 0:09:20.559 --> 0:09:23.319 he's such a good blocker. Elijah Mitchell returned to practice today. 0:09:23.520 --> 0:09:25.440 Deebo Samuel is still working on the side, but again 0:09:25.480 --> 0:09:28.200 he was battling the calf thing last and last week, 0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:30.439 and he did play. Jim and Garoppolo look good. Brandon 0:09:30.480 --> 0:09:32.280 Ayukuz coming along a little bit more so. I think 0:09:32.320 --> 0:09:35.200 their offense here is just getting better and there is 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:38.600 regression coming for the Cardinals, and we started started seeing 0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:41.400 it last week. JJ Watson jury actually is you know, 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:44.360 does have an impact, especially on the run. Cliff Kingsbury 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:46.960 entire his entire career is based around tanking in the 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:49.360 second half, like you look at his college career, look 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:51.760 at his pro career. This is what his teams do. 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:54.200 It's like, all right, we're just gonna basically play, you know, 0:09:54.640 --> 0:09:56.719 you know, a three you know, win one out of 0:09:56.760 --> 0:09:59.880 every three games down the stretch here and then we 0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:02.920 But again, the injury concerns are really massive, because even 0:10:02.960 --> 0:10:05.320 if I thought Somer Francisco was going to win this game, regardless, 0:10:05.960 --> 0:10:07.160 it's not as much Hopkins. 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:08.040 I think that's a big deal. 0:10:08.040 --> 0:10:08.240 A J. 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:09.960 Green's obviously on the COVID list. We don't know if 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:12.480 he's gonna play, but it's Murray, and it's the fact 0:10:12.520 --> 0:10:15.679 that it's his ankle, and if you take away Murray's mobility, 0:10:16.679 --> 0:10:19.280 that's worth so many points in a spread, which is 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:22.240 why it's moving so significantly. So you know, for me, 0:10:22.400 --> 0:10:24.720 this is a spot where it just feels like the 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:27.000 forty nine ers are gonna kind of go on a 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:29.000 mini run here. They got the Rams next week, so 0:10:29.040 --> 0:10:32.040 who knows, But it just feels right now like the 0:10:32.080 --> 0:10:34.120 bill is coming due a little bit for the Cardinals 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:36.439 and with a bang up Murray, as long as it 0:10:36.520 --> 0:10:38.880 stays under a field goal, please come on. 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:42.360 Yeah, I'm going on the bad side of doubtful Murray. 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:45.480 I mean, and it's just the backup I believe is 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:48.720 still a little inside of it is Chris Streveler, the 0:10:48.760 --> 0:10:54.080 former CFL quarterback and the last he is. He was 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:58.679 on the Gray Cup champion Winnipeg Blue Bombers before Kingsbury 0:10:58.760 --> 0:11:00.960 signed him. But he's like he has a big arm, 0:11:01.040 --> 0:11:03.560 but he's mostly they used him on the goal line 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:06.920 to like rush in touchdowns and he had twelve touchdowns 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:10.800 in Uh. Is it still is McCoy the number two listed? 0:11:10.840 --> 0:11:13.600 Okay, I think it's I was just chelling. 0:11:13.880 --> 0:11:15.200 I was like, oh god, I had it wrong because 0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:16.240 I thought it was Colt McCoy. 0:11:16.440 --> 0:11:17.280 He is on the team. 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:20.000 Yeah, I I I don't know. 0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:21.760 Actually, to be fair, I guess that's true. 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:22.880 I don't know whether or not. 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:25.000 That's true. 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:27.560 But regardless, I think we can safely say that it's 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:30.800 a minor downgrade from Kyler Murray. Whoever it is. Yeah, 0:11:30.920 --> 0:11:33.040 that's really what it is. And again, yeah, I was 0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:33.480 I mean. 0:11:33.360 --> 0:11:34.199 His his week. 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:37.000 His injury was originally called like a one to three 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:38.800 week thing. So the fact that they thought he was 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:41.160 going to play is fine. And if you're the Cardinals, 0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:43.760 really because you're seven and one, this is a spot 0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:46.280 to rest him, I think, even against the divisional opponent. 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:48.280 I know you want to hold off the Rams, but 0:11:48.320 --> 0:11:50.560 you've got long term plans here. This isn't the spot 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:53.200 I think where you let that defensive line go after 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:54.760 him and possibly injure him more. 0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:55.760 So if he sits. 0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:57.320 But even if he plays at this point, you know 0:11:57.400 --> 0:11:59.200 he's not going to be anywhere close to one hundred percent. 0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:00.679 So if you were listening to this and the spread 0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:04.160 is still under a field goal pounded and again God 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:06.600 helped me. If the forty nine ers lose this game 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:09.040 now with yeah, I have and if they lose it 0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:12.120 badly because I have so many teasers Andrew that I 0:12:12.160 --> 0:12:14.920 got just past when it was until it got past one, 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:17.000 I was like, give me seven, give me them getting 0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:18.280 seven and a half, give me them an eight and 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:18.720 a half. 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:20.920 Another one that I know we discussed a little bit 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:22.560 off there that we were both on the same side here. 0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:25.480 So I'm going Chargers and I I have it down 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:27.440 as minus too because it's the same thing less than 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:31.959 a field goal. But now I'm seeing minus one a 0:12:32.240 --> 0:12:35.520 lot of places. I don't know if that okay, Yeah, 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:38.880 it's still too okay. But I have been hearing that 0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:41.800 Sharps have been all over the Eagles the last few weeks, 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:44.760 and it seems like the trend is continuing this week 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:46.520 because I just saw the line. I saw it too, 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:49.280 and I was like, that seems wrong to me. It 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:52.319 just it just felt wrong. The Chargers are the better 0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:55.760 coach team by a mile. I think I have no 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:59.000 way to Nick Sirianni at all when it comes to 0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:02.600 leading that team. They have a better quarterback than Justin Herbert. Yes, 0:13:02.600 --> 0:13:05.160 he's been struggling, I give him a little pass. Like 0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:07.280 the Phil Checks just seems to have the Chargers number, 0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:10.360 and he just knows how to deal with young quarterbacks 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:13.320 better than most, or at least coaching against young quarterbacks 0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:16.280 better than most. And I think this is another guy 0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:18.760 who's gonna get a bit of a get right spot 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:20.880 against an Eagles defense that I think is a little 0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:26.200 overrated and also a little banged up. At the same time, 0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:29.200 the Chargers also don't even have to deal with the 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:31.760 West Coast. Hey, we've got to play early, and we 0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:34.040 have a morning game that it's in the late time slot, 0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:36.280 so it's a normal two pm start for them. Sort 0:13:36.280 --> 0:13:40.640 of thing, so I don't really get it. So obviously 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:44.080 it's a very square play, and I've seen a lot 0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:48.240 of early public people on it. Call me square, I guess, 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:50.520 but I just love this number. I think the Chargers 0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:52.880 win it by by at least a fuel goal, so 0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:56.360 I'm happy. I'll happily take the minus two minus one. 0:13:56.400 --> 0:13:58.800 Whatever you're gonna give me, I'll take it with them. 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:01.760 It strikes me as just kind of a very very 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:05.760 classic Bilo sell high. Right, everybody's off the Chargers because 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:08.760 they look bad last week against New England. The Eagles 0:14:08.800 --> 0:14:12.760 finally dominated a game, you know, against the Lions. So look, 0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:16.160 that's right, it's got to count as half a win 0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:19.560 at best. I like the Eagles, I always have. I 0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:22.320 feel like they should be better. It was nice to 0:14:22.320 --> 0:14:25.000 see them win. But yeah, this is very simple, and 0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:28.360 you're right. I mean the four o'clock time, you know, 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:31.000 the start for that. It's a pretty big deal because 0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:32.760 it is a thing for West Coast teams a lot 0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:35.920 of times to come east and take a one o'clock game. 0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:38.520 Their internal clocks just aren't right. This makes it a 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:40.840 little easier, and I do think that the Chargers are 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.280 just a better team. And again they're four and three. 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:43.800 That's fine. 0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:46.920 They've lost a couple here, but Staley's great and he 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:49.240 has them playing the right way. So you know, I 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:51.600 don't think that the Eagles defense is strong enough to 0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:54.680 kind of, you know, make Herbert uncomfortable. So I think 0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:57.160 with that, I do think that they win by more 0:14:57.200 --> 0:14:59.120 than field goal. I agree, as long as it's thunderfield goal, 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:00.880 I would have taken it. Yeah, the way it works, 0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:03.600 I've told everybody, like I get from our guests ever 0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:06.360 since week one, where Sean was sort of doubling up 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:08.400 on all the same picks. I get the guests just 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:10.960 today three, so I don't have it. And then when 0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:13.440 you get we can tell the public. I mean, were 0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:17.120 you were gonna take Miami laying six and a half, 0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:18.960 But then, of course we learned that Tarrod Taylor is 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:19.400 going to start. 0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:20.280 That changed the equation. 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:23.080 So in between I said, all right, well you were 0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:24.600 gonna change I said, all right, well I'm taking San 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:26.880 Francisco and I saw that one from you. But you 0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:28.720 did mention this, and I would have taken this as well, 0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:31.440 So we are on the same side. I'm interested in 0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:34.640 hearing your thoughts on my next pick, because this one 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:37.240 was something where when I first saw the line, I 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:38.840 was on the other side, and then I dug into 0:15:38.840 --> 0:15:40.960 it a little bit and I came out with the 0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:45.520 Browns getting two and a half from the Bengals. This 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:47.840 feels like the line is out there begging you to 0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:50.720 take the Bengals right Like maybe they think that the 0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:52.840 public's going to be a little off the Bengals because 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:55.440 they lost to the Jets, but I feel like it's 0:15:55.520 --> 0:15:57.800 much more about how can anybody want to back the 0:15:57.800 --> 0:16:00.520 Browns right now because of all the drama they lost 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:02.520 to the Steelers and you've got the Odell Beckham junior 0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:04.920 stuff going on. So this strikes me as if you're 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:06.400 giving a team like the Bengals, who I think the 0:16:06.440 --> 0:16:09.840 public's really excited about despite the Jets loss and laying 0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:12.160 less than field goal to the Browns who are in disarray, 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:15.800 it's just begging you to take the Bengals. And that's 0:16:15.880 --> 0:16:19.960 why I'm gonna take the rounds. I'm gonna wait because 0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:22.160 I mean, it's not gonna move anywhere. I'm gonna hope 0:16:22.160 --> 0:16:24.080 that it gets to three. I don't think it will. 0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:26.320 But if I'm gonna wait, so if you're in on this, 0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:27.200 I would wait. 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:30.160 So if they're I haven't seen. I haven't seen the 0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:31.880 actual betting numbers, so these are for These are free 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:34.640 play numbers for anyone who doesn't know. So it's not actual, 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:37.840 it's not actual money wagers, but it's still a gauge. 0:16:37.880 --> 0:16:42.360 Like we have a pretty advanced, advanced community, and I 0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:45.560 would say an intelligent betting community, and they're they're on 0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:47.800 the Bengals right now. But it was something I noticed 0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:49.800 about the Bengals and that losses that they did not 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:53.880 actle very well in that Jets game, and I expect 0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:56.880 that the Browns are just say here you go, Nick 0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:59.680 Chubb and let them let him do. 0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:03.200 His You are, you're doing my work for me, man, 0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:04.560 I love it well. 0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:05.960 I will say that again. 0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:08.400 We have the bet analyser over at Betting Pros as well, 0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:10.639 and we've got a bunch of people from around the 0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:13.440 industry who make picks and submit picks, including me, and 0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:15.760 they're right in line with what you have from covers, 0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:19.119 which is seventy six percent are taking the Bengals. So 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:20.159 I don't mind that. 0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:21.359 I don't mind being there. 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:23.520 But again, there's no reason not to wait, like it's 0:17:23.560 --> 0:17:26.200 not going anywhere. It's it's certainly not going down. Maybe 0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:27.840 it gets to three. So again, wait and if it 0:17:27.920 --> 0:17:30.320 gets to three, that's gonna be my official player, right 0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:32.919