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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by a hard rock bet

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Speaker 1: We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is

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Speaker 1: the betting show that makes the Square sharper and makes

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Speaker 1: the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Nolman. I

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Speaker 1: am joined as always by my co host, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my Cabadre professional Better, my bff, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon Chad.

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Speaker 2: How are we doing, dude?

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Speaker 1: We're doing pretty awesome.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, life is good.

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Speaker 1: It is pretty good. I just want you to know

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Speaker 1: I have you know, one of my kids goes to

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Speaker 1: school in Philly. He goes to Drexel. He's a senior.

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Speaker 1: He's not a sports fan at all, but I have

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Speaker 1: completely indoctrinated him into Phillies baseball. The passion, the glory,

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Speaker 1: the fan base, the excitement, everything about Phillies baseball. I'm

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Speaker 1: sending him you know. You know how much I love Phillies. TikTok.

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Speaker 1: I sent Bryce Harper just did a video on a video,

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Speaker 1: a hype video for October baseball for the Phillies. I

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Speaker 1: sent it to them. We're fully engaged. We are all

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Speaker 1: on your side for the Phillies. I just want you

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Speaker 1: to know that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was pretty well the Phillies had. It's basically

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Speaker 2: a fake game. Last night. I went to it with

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Speaker 2: a couple buddies, and I couldn't believe how many people

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Speaker 2: were there, how rowdy it was. And then you know

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Speaker 2: there's rumors going throughout the crowd that there was like

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Speaker 2: I think it was the Dodgers didn't sell out their

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Speaker 2: game last night, and there's something else. Maybe it was

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Speaker 2: another team, maybe it was the Guardians. Riever, it was

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Speaker 2: just Phillies fans owning that being like, you see what

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Speaker 2: the people are here, and it's just like, Okay, calm down,

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Speaker 2: it doesn't matter. But I would be lying to if

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Speaker 2: I didn't say I wasn't nervous about this Dodgers team

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Speaker 2: just watching them, all the names, all of it. I

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Speaker 2: think I saw some crattats the first time the Phillies

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Speaker 2: have played the Dodgers in the playoffs since two thousand

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Speaker 2: and nine. So yeah, I'm excited as a Phillies fan.

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Speaker 2: But like I said, Baseball, it's very random. They've changed it.

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Speaker 2: It's not seven games anymore, it's only five games in

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Speaker 2: this round. So yeah, I'm I'm thinking of all the

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Speaker 2: ways it could go wrong. But like the vibes like

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Speaker 2: last night in the stadium, it's so high. I just

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Speaker 2: really do think the players that love playing in Philly,

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Speaker 2: the atmosphere, all of that'll it'll lift them up hopefully

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Speaker 2: this upcoming series against La because man, that team, that

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Speaker 2: team is loaded.

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Speaker 1: Care of the day. All right, this is our Thursday,

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Speaker 1: week five episode. We're gonna narrow down the options on

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Speaker 1: our quest to find five picks we agree on for

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Speaker 1: the week. We are going to do something special this week,

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Speaker 1: Simon says. On Tuesday was the Texans plus three and

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Speaker 1: a half against the Ravens. I would say our show

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Speaker 1: had been live for about an hour before that moved

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Speaker 1: all the way to the Texans minus two and a half.

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Speaker 1: As we're leaked that Lamar Jackson his status was up

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Speaker 1: in the air for the weekend's game against against the Texans.

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Speaker 1: So we're gonna add a new Simon says today since

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Speaker 1: that one was unavailable so quickly quickly. We're also switching

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Speaker 1: up the format of our Rock and a Hard Place bet.

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Speaker 1: We're finding that on Sunday mornings when we do our

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Speaker 1: Sunday morning show so often that fifth game is the

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Speaker 1: game that we're having a hard time that we want

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Speaker 1: to put into our final five. So we're going to

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Speaker 1: make that our Rock and a Hard Place bet of

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Speaker 1: the Week from Hard Rock when we talk about it

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Speaker 1: on Sunday. So we'll add that on Sunday. Reminder, subscribe

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Speaker 1: to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your pods. We've had a lot of games on

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Speaker 1: Tuesday in which you said you were going to get

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Speaker 1: some calls about. So let's get into this thing. It's

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Speaker 1: time forward, sharp.

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Speaker 2: Calls, half the answer this phone all.

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Speaker 1: Right, rain range, telephone range, somebody say it maybe what

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Speaker 1: you do.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's run through just the games that obviously we

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Speaker 2: talked about and that they agree with us. On professional side,

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Speaker 2: no doubt about it. The Rams people have seen that number.

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Speaker 2: It's ballooned obviously up to nine now at a couple

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Speaker 2: of books. So we'll talk about that one. Miami. Shockingly,

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Speaker 2: we're on the Panthers. There are a lot of pros

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Speaker 2: I know they're on the Miami side. They like Miami side. Interesting, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: Cowboys another pro side. Talked to a lot of pros

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Speaker 2: that really liked that side. The Saints, no doubt about it,

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Speaker 2: tons of pro love for that side. Seahawks which is shocking.

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Speaker 2: I'm still dugging on the Bucks, but we can break

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Speaker 2: down that one if you want some more. Very shocked

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Speaker 2: here a little bit of love for this knowing the

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Speaker 2: Patriots side, and once again I think I'm gonna stand

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Speaker 2: the other side. Think I'm gonna be on the Bills,

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Speaker 2: but I know some really smart guys who like that side.

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Speaker 2: They love Jag the Jags, So Chad definitely nailed that one.

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Speaker 2: Pros are all over that Jag side, that number three

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Speaker 2: and a half half, No threes, but three and a

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Speaker 2: half's definitely in the professional side and a game that

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Speaker 2: I'm just I got a blind spot too. I can't

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Speaker 2: get a read on it. Vegas. Talked to a bunch

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Speaker 2: of pros that really like Vegas. They like the trends,

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Speaker 2: they like the number, they like the spot, they like

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Speaker 2: the situation. I am still dug in on the Colts.

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Speaker 2: If you can get the minus six minus six and

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Speaker 2: a half, I still think that's a prefer side for me.

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Speaker 2: But maybe they've talked me out of even think I'm

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Speaker 2: put in our contest because it is once again very

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Speaker 2: respected money on that Raiders side right now.

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Speaker 1: Wow, there's a lot of differences between what we had

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Speaker 1: talked about on Tuesday and where I think we were leaning,

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Speaker 1: and what professional betters that you're hearing from are talking

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Speaker 1: about a lot of hate, a lot of hate this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's I mean, that's gambling. Man.

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Speaker 1: That's interesting. All right, here we go. I want to

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Speaker 1: talk about Thursday night just for just for a few minutes.

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Speaker 1: I know a lot of people are going to hear

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Speaker 1: this after the Thursday night game, but it has moved

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Speaker 1: so much. Look, this line was three and a half

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, and on Tuesday when we talked about it,

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Speaker 1: it was five and a half. Now you mentioned nine,

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Speaker 1: it's at eight and a half. Most places, the line

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Speaker 1: moves have been crazy, mainly because of the Brock Party news.

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Speaker 1: But then last night it came out Purty's not going

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Speaker 1: to be playing Juwan Jennings, not going to be playing

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Speaker 1: Ricky Pearsol, not going to be playing Nick Bosa obviously

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Speaker 1: already out. So you're not getting the Niners super Bowl

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Speaker 1: caliber roster that you thought you might be getting in

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Speaker 1: a division matchup on Thursday night. So that's why the

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Speaker 1: number has moved so much. I know for us, like

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Speaker 1: I'm going to play the Rams and survivor in one

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Speaker 1: of my Survivor pool contests, and I know that when

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Speaker 1: we think about contest for our contest, we're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to play the Rams because that line locked at five

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Speaker 1: and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and luckily we talked about it on Tuesday show

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Speaker 2: and people were able to get that line. The five

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Speaker 2: and a half in the six. Did not see it

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Speaker 2: going all up to what it's become, right, that is

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Speaker 2: because they're down. They're number one, number two receiver and

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Speaker 2: now you have Mac Jones at third and eight with

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Speaker 2: two guys on McCaffrey now having to make plays to

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Speaker 2: practice players and backups like they're they're in a really

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Speaker 2: tough spot this week the forty nine ers, and surprisingly

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Speaker 2: Shanahan he's actually awful in these spots. So I think

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Speaker 2: your position to take the Rams and survivor, you know,

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Speaker 2: a little scare because is a Thursday game, but I

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Speaker 2: think it's warrant to hear where in this exact spot

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Speaker 2: when Shanahan's a huge dog like this. I believe in

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Speaker 2: his career he's one in eighteen straight Upah. So you

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Speaker 2: look at those type of numbers and you think yourself, Okay,

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Speaker 2: it's already a bad matchup, and then you look at

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Speaker 2: the ATS records. You know, short week McVeigh has always

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Speaker 2: been good between you know, his early years with the

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Speaker 2: Rams and now later in his career. He's seventeen and

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Speaker 2: seven against the spread on short weeks. So it's a

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Speaker 2: huge number. I probably have it right at seven and

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Speaker 2: a half. So if you're someone that's out there and

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Speaker 2: you haven't bet at all and you're like, I want

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Speaker 2: to be on the forty nine ers side, I guess

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Speaker 2: you can take the nine. That's the only number I

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Speaker 2: would touch, even though my model has that as a

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Speaker 2: much better value. I just I don't think it understands

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Speaker 2: how tough this is gonna be. Have a matchup for

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Speaker 2: this team, and you know, first half is a divisional

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Speaker 2: game this season. Could be a ten to ten, seven

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Speaker 2: to seven game going to half. But once the teams

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Speaker 2: make adjustments, I think the Rams will be able to

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Speaker 2: move the ball and the forty Nineers just won't in

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Speaker 2: the second half. So yeah, I'm glad we're locked in

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Speaker 2: on this being in our contest. It's a good good

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Speaker 2: way to start the week, especially this week where I

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Speaker 2: have games I really like. Not a ton of love

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Speaker 2: from my side honestly, So this is one of the

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Speaker 2: few games I love, love that we're getting a great

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Speaker 2: number in. Yeah, just man, we need the Rams show

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Speaker 2: up here because this is just a horrible matchup with

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Speaker 2: four ninders team. I just don't see how they move

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Speaker 2: the ball offensively. They just have so many devastating injuries.

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Speaker 1: Look, I hope people were paying attention. I did better

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday at five and a half. And there's been

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Speaker 1: a couple of games this week. We're going to go

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Speaker 1: through them where we talked about them on Tuesday and

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Speaker 1: saying we liked the lines at certain numbers, and they

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Speaker 1: got to those numbers or you had to bet them

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Speaker 1: right away, and we were saying, go bet this number.

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Speaker 1: So hopefully people were paying attention. All right, Rams, it's

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Speaker 1: getting out getting it's getting out of hand. I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: betting the Rams now, but hopefully everyone was able to

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Speaker 1: get that Rams five and a half. I do want

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Speaker 1: to talk about the Sunday morning game for a second,

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Speaker 1: because since we talked about it Minnesota and Cleveland in England.

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Speaker 1: Cleveland is a three and a half point underdog. We

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Speaker 1: talked about it on Tuesday and the question we had

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Speaker 1: was why is Joe Flacco still the starting quarterback for

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Speaker 1: this team, and we said Kevin Stefanski had been noncommittal,

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Speaker 1: so there was a hint that he might change his mind.

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Speaker 1: Dylan Gabriel has since been announced as the starting quarterback.

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Speaker 1: There is one four and a half out there. I'm

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Speaker 1: tempted to take the Browns at four and a half

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Speaker 1: at three and a half. I don't know if you

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Speaker 1: have an opinion on this, if it hasn't changed at

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Speaker 1: all with Dylan Gabriel, like it's basically been painted three

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Speaker 1: and a half everywhere. So you got a call here

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Speaker 1: like I think I lean. Let me tell you why

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Speaker 1: I leen Browns before you give me your opinion. I

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Speaker 1: Leen Browns because the Vikings offensive line is truly terrible

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Speaker 1: right now, like in real massive injury deficit. So you're

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Speaker 1: gonna get You're gonna get Miles Garrett, who's playing like

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Speaker 1: a defensive Player of the Year, if not an MVP.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna get Mason Graham, who's playing like a defensive

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Speaker 1: rookie of the year. You're gonna get that kid, Carson Schwessinger, Swearinger,

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Speaker 1: what his name it? The linebacker who might be defensive

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Speaker 1: rookie of the year. I guess a really bad offensive

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Speaker 1: line and against the Carson Wentz who still can't seem

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Speaker 1: to figure out how to get beyond his first read.

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Speaker 1: I think that's potential here is keep this game really

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Speaker 1: close and for the Vikings, like, don't let Carson Wentz

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Speaker 1: screw it up. So it feels like there's a possibility

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Speaker 1: here for it to be a low scoring, close game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it stinks. I was on the Browns. I really

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Speaker 2: wanted to be Flacco because to me, the biggest deal

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Speaker 2: is this is a Flora's defense. I could not believe

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Speaker 2: of all the games to put a rookie for his

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Speaker 2: first start, you couldn't honestly pick the worst matchup for Dan.

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Speaker 2: This is gonna be I Like I said, that stuff

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Speaker 2: Flora shows you he's never seen anything like, especially in

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Speaker 2: college football, where they don't These kids don't even get

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Speaker 2: coached to learn and read defenses right, They're just reacting

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Speaker 2: to their own offense, let alone the other team's defense.

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Speaker 2: So bad spot I wanted to be on the Browns.

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Speaker 2: They're the super public side. People are kind of leaving

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Speaker 2: the Vikings for dead here, and we've learned in European games,

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Speaker 2: these favorites, they tend to do well. But even more

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Speaker 2: so the chalk like whatever where the public is betting,

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Speaker 2: tends to do on. Right now, the public side is

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Speaker 2: this Browns team, So I'll probably end up just holding

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Speaker 2: my Browns bets I already made early in the week

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Speaker 2: because I did think it was going to be Flacco.

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Speaker 2: To me, the sharp side, we've already missed the value,

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Speaker 2: which was the under. Like they've taken this down now

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Speaker 2: from basically forty one to thirty six and a half

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Speaker 2: thirty five and a half at some books. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's that's crazy because it's again it's an international game,

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Speaker 2: tends to lean towards the over, so yeah, just put

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Speaker 2: a bone in it. I guess I'm on the Browns.

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Speaker 2: I guess I'll keep keep my under ticket alive. But

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Speaker 2: if people just want to tease this one, like tease

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Speaker 2: the Browns up to whatever ten or you know, nine

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Speaker 2: and a half and tease the under up or do

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Speaker 2: whatever something like that, I get it. I just this

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Speaker 2: game has so many unknowns now with those switch to Flacco,

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Speaker 2: and like Chad said, the all the injuries to the

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Speaker 2: Vikings offensive line, I'm I'm I'm with you on the

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Speaker 2: brown side. It's just not a game I'm been confidently.

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Speaker 1: Miami at Carolina. Carolina is now half point underdog. I

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Speaker 1: feel a little regretful because when we did the show

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday there were one and a half point favorites.

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Speaker 1: It had flipped. Now it's flipped back to them being underdogs.

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Speaker 1: This would have been a Chad Loves potentially if the

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Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers had been underdogs on Tuesday. It's two really

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Speaker 1: bad teams, let's face it. And like, I still would

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Speaker 1: rather be betting on the Panthers right than betting on

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins in a situation where they've just lost Tyreek

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Speaker 1: Hill and the Panthers they're not a very good team,

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Speaker 1: we know that. But this Dolphins team is trash, really trash.

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Speaker 1: And I don't think that they were as good as

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Speaker 1: anyone thinks they were in the Monday night game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah maybe, now that was honestly a perfect matchup for them,

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Speaker 2: and like you know, the Jets being the Jets kept

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Speaker 2: turning the ball over. That's really what decided that game.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, and the penalties.

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Speaker 2: My fear here with Panthers is Cuba Hubbard. They're number

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Speaker 2: one back to me is one of the more underrated

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Speaker 2: running backs in all of football. Doesn't get the credit

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Speaker 2: respected deserves from general public. He's honestly a stud. This

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Speaker 2: was gonna be a great match for him. He's banged up.

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Speaker 2: He has a practice shit this week. On the flip side,

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Speaker 2: you go through the injuries to their line, their defense.

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Speaker 2: The Panthers are just going through a lot, like a

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Speaker 2: lot of teams are on football right now. And I

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Speaker 2: know this is a huge discussion just in the football community,

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Speaker 2: Like I talk to different scouts, different guys and organizations.

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Speaker 2: This whole next collective bargain agreement. I think they're gonna

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Speaker 2: bring back more padded practices and just more contact with

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Speaker 2: people because you get early in the year here, all

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Speaker 2: these guys are all getting banged up, and it just

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Speaker 2: feels like it's all these different teams, and the Panthers

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Speaker 2: are part of that list. So it is Miami, right.

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Speaker 2: You just said Tyreek Hill. As big of a deal

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Speaker 2: it is to lose Tyreek Hill. He's honestly, statistically, he

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Speaker 2: was one of the better receivers this year. He's like

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Speaker 2: win rate, getting open, all that stuff. That's gonna be

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Speaker 2: a big deal. But I can't stop and think about

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Speaker 2: how this is the exact matchup to a thrives in,

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Speaker 2: which is zero pass rush, and he's gonna have guys open,

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Speaker 2: and he just does well against bad teams. You go

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Speaker 2: through his historical data, he always beats upon bad teams

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Speaker 2: and just gets ruined by good teams on the road. So, yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's a game I was with chat. I'm I was

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Speaker 2: confident on the Panthers, still gonna be on the Panthers,

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Speaker 2: especially at plus one and a half, but just knowing

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Speaker 2: the respecting money that is on Miami, their reasoning their

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Speaker 2: position while they're taking on this Miami team. I get

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Speaker 2: it because I did go back and watch the Bryce

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Speaker 2: Young tape and it's like, even at Atlanta win, he

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Speaker 2: didn't look that good honestly, So I'm worried about him, schuad.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie like. He just doesn't look right

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Speaker 2: yet mentally all of it. And yeah, Bryce Young slowly

305
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Speaker 2: puts surely he's playing himself out of the NFL, especially

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Speaker 2: the way he's been playing this year.

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Speaker 1: Isn't that amazing? Yeah, number one overall pick.

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Speaker 2: That he just showed something last year. I thought that

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Speaker 2: would carry into this year and just not at all.

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Speaker 1: Well, chances are very good that we finally might bet

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Speaker 1: the Carolina Well.

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Speaker 2: We got lucky they this season because I'm sure people

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Speaker 2: have seen those stats like they haven't one are covered

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Speaker 2: as a favorite in like four years or three years.

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Speaker 2: I think it was since like twenty three totally. And yeah,

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Speaker 2: they've just been a disaster in this exact spot. I mean,

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Speaker 2: they're just I know, the owner's trying to hire a

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Speaker 2: bunch of nerds and he thinks that's going to help,

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Speaker 2: but it isn't. You need I don't even know, you

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Speaker 2: need to just blow it all up. They just need

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Speaker 2: to start from the ground up. It's it feels like

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Speaker 2: everything they do is wrong and there are pieces to

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Speaker 2: like on this on this Panthers team, But like I

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Speaker 2: just said, between all the injuries chat, I just I'm

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Speaker 2: a little uneasy about this game, all right.

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Speaker 1: New York Giants at New Orleans Saints. You mentioned this

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Speaker 1: from sharp Calls. I was honestly going to leave this

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Speaker 1: one out because the line had moved so much from

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Speaker 1: Saints plus two on Sunday night when we did like

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Speaker 1: it to minus two, it seemed to me the value

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Speaker 1: was gone. We were texting earlier this morning about some games.

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Speaker 1: You brought this one up. Could we conceivably responsibly professionally

333
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Speaker 1: bet on Spencer Rattler as a two point home favorite?

334
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Speaker 1: Is there something that makes us comfortable giving away four

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Speaker 1: points of value?

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Speaker 2: It was three points, right, it's minus one and a half.

337
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Speaker 2: It was there plus one and a half.

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Speaker 1: But they were plus two on Sunday night. There are

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Speaker 1: places where the rhine.

340
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Speaker 2: Is too and that helps no one here. Don't talk

341
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Speaker 2: about that line because again I got that, but who cares.

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Speaker 2: I put a penny on that. So did our listeners

343
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Speaker 2: if they've ben bet it. But to me, this is

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Speaker 2: the line people are gonna bet. I really think it's

345
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Speaker 2: really about me thinking Spencer Ratler is much better that

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Speaker 2: people think. I believe it was. Pro Football Focus had

347
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Speaker 2: him as their eighteenth graded highest quarterback right now this season,

348
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Speaker 2: like he's actually played really well and the numbers bear

349
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Speaker 2: that out, not only using his legs, but he's been

350
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Speaker 2: really effective on third down. And this is really about

351
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Speaker 2: the spot and on Jackson Dart what I do like

352
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Speaker 2: what he's doing with his legs, and I did think

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Speaker 2: he had some good throws. They've lost the guy. They

354
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Speaker 2: lost Malik neighbors. I don't think we can understand how

355
00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:15,280
Speaker 2: big of a deal that is. Where this guy was

356
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Speaker 2: basically their offense. If they needed just a prayer on

357
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:21,560
Speaker 2: third down, that was the guy they would turn to

358
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Speaker 2: every play. And then you factor in that this is

359
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Speaker 2: Dart's second start now after a win, and now he's

360
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Speaker 2: on the road, and I think we both agree with

361
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Speaker 2: the Saint suck. That's a pretty tough environment to play

362
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Speaker 2: indoors in that dome. So let's go into the numbers.

363
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:40,920
Speaker 2: So QB's making their you know, first couple starts the

364
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Speaker 2: last five years, so this is a second career start

365
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:48,040
Speaker 2: on the road in this spot these young quarterbacks thirteen

366
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Speaker 2: to thirty four straight up, so historically a really bad

367
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Speaker 2: spot for these guys to be in. You know, Dart,

368
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Speaker 2: I'll give him, like I said, the credit. You can

369
00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,119
Speaker 2: use his legs. That is a weapon that will fit

370
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Speaker 2: him against a Saints team that they do have a

371
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,600
Speaker 2: lot of holes in their defense, especially at the linebacker

372
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Speaker 2: position that you know, even if they're trying to QB

373
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Speaker 2: spy Dart, I don't know if they have a guy

374
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Speaker 2: that can really take that away. He's injured. Like I

375
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,040
Speaker 2: saw a thing about a guy that he's wearing like

376
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,240
Speaker 2: it's his type of sleeve on his leg that basically

377
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,840
Speaker 2: keeps your leg warm for bad hamstring. So does he

378
00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:23,560
Speaker 2: have an injury here? I think he does, so I

379
00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:25,120
Speaker 2: don't think I'm able to use his legs, which again

380
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:28,880
Speaker 2: another advantage to us with the Saints side, and this

381
00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 2: would be I side that no one's gonna bet by professionals,

382
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:33,760
Speaker 2: chet like this is going to be. The public is

383
00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:35,280
Speaker 2: going to come into the Giants. No one's bet in

384
00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,200
Speaker 2: the Saints. Like we said Spencer Rattler, he's never won

385
00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:39,880
Speaker 2: a game of his career. He's oh for tennis career,

386
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 2: and he's now a favorite. The Saints viewed as the

387
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 2: from the public as the worst team of football, because

388
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:46,359
Speaker 2: you know they're bad. They're zero to four. They are

389
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,280
Speaker 2: a favorite at home here. So I love that the

390
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,200
Speaker 2: publics on the other side of this. I'm with you. Obviously,

391
00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:54,080
Speaker 2: I wish this was still plus two. This would have

392
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,320
Speaker 2: been a no brainer, would have forced it into our

393
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,160
Speaker 2: contest at one and a half. I get your hesitation

394
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 2: because that with that teams you do want the best

395
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 2: of the number. But I love this spot for the

396
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 2: Saints team, for this matchup and just them being desperate.

397
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:10,840
Speaker 2: I can't talk about enough people with sports being desperate,

398
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 2: especially as a professional. It's a real thing. Like I

399
00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 2: I don't know, if you watch the Ben Johnson's speech

400
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,479
Speaker 2: after that Raiders game, he talked about that the hell

401
00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:23,040
Speaker 2: desperate both teams were, and you could sense it. And

402
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:25,240
Speaker 2: that's why that that's such a huge win because it's

403
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:28,160
Speaker 2: like you need it, you're dying for. There's another thing

404
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,520
Speaker 2: worse is competitive than losing week in and week out.

405
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,160
Speaker 2: So I just can't help but feel like the Giants

406
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 2: are gonna be feeling themselves, are gonna be feeling good

407
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,359
Speaker 2: about a huge win against the Chargers now going against

408
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 2: the Saints team that every week for the most part,

409
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,239
Speaker 2: other than that Seahawks game, they've been close. They've been

410
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:45,200
Speaker 2: in these games, and they've been hungry. So I'm I'm

411
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 2: pitching it to your heart. I want you to come

412
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,080
Speaker 2: on the Saint side. But I'm where the fans are

413
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,679
Speaker 2: like you, They're just like this is so gross. I

414
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,679
Speaker 2: don't trust rather as a favorite. But I'm telling you

415
00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:55,760
Speaker 2: it's a good number. This should be two and a half,

416
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 2: should be close to the three. I think we're getting

417
00:20:57,840 --> 00:20:58,440
Speaker 2: a good deal here.

418
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 1: On the same side, I don't need that much convincing

419
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 1: on the Saints, like I've wanted to be on them

420
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:06,200
Speaker 1: the whole week and and just bummed about the number

421
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 1: more than I am about Spencer Rattler, And you know,

422
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 1: we just get burned in these situations. So I'm feeling

423
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 1: a little bit s.

424
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 2: Guy swing the other way though. There's it's it's been

425
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:17,920
Speaker 2: You're right this year. It's it's been going the one

426
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 2: sided very heavily. Whenever it flips, the favorites again burned.

427
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 2: But that's that's an anomaly, Honestly, that's been It's been

428
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,120
Speaker 2: very flucish, where like every that game that keeps laying

429
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:30,919
Speaker 2: on one and the team that became the favorite loses

430
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 2: on the one. So I'm with you, it's been weird.

431
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,440
Speaker 2: But I'm trying not to overreact too much to it

432
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,879
Speaker 2: because it has been so flucish.

433
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,439
Speaker 1: I'm not afraid of it. I'm not afraid. I'm not

434
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:47,119
Speaker 1: afraid of this bet at all. Just telling you right now, Uh,

435
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,959
Speaker 1: Houston at Baltimore. This was Simon says, we still owe

436
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,560
Speaker 1: people and New Simon says, we owe people of brass balls.

437
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 1: We're getting to those but it was, Simon says, when

438
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 1: it was Texas three and a half. And like I

439
00:21:58,080 --> 00:21:59,919
Speaker 1: said in the intro, I don't think the show had

440
00:21:59,960 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 1: been up for more than an hour before this flipped

441
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 1: because of the Lamar Jackson speculation. So I wanted to

442
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 1: ask you you were so adamant that this was Simon says,

443
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 1: it was almost like you knew something. Did you have

444
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:19,639
Speaker 1: an inkling? Had you been hearing something like give me

445
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 1: the background here?

446
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:24,240
Speaker 2: Again, I didn't know what to say, because it's tough, Chad.

447
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:27,439
Speaker 2: I do have another job. That's why all these picks

448
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 2: are free. And as much people want to bitch by

449
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 2: the show, it's seven seasons free picks, and yeah, I

450
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,160
Speaker 2: have a duty to the people I work for to

451
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 2: get the best of the number. For that, and again,

452
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,200
Speaker 2: why I feel comfortable giving out on the show is

453
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 2: I've been betting it since Monday, and yeah, like the

454
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 2: that's the hardest part too, though, what to trust because

455
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 2: you hear all these crazy rumors, but that one I

456
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 2: thought I had some really good info, was really pounding

457
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 2: the table about it. And now that it has moved,

458
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:58,119
Speaker 2: you know, people if they did get that number and

459
00:22:58,119 --> 00:22:59,880
Speaker 2: they want to play the other side, I don't hate

460
00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 2: it because it's quickly becoming a Ravens line. And you

461
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 2: know Cooper Rush, he is a downgrade. But this was

462
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 2: nine and a half. So you know, ten points, eleven points,

463
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 2: what is Lamar worth of this team? It is probably

464
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 2: close to that number, So at some point it will

465
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 2: become a Cooper Rush line. You know, with him, Derrick

466
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,440
Speaker 2: Henry Zave Flowers, you know he does have weapons to use.

467
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 2: To me, the reason I'm not pound on the table

468
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 2: about backing the Ravens here and I'm still comfortable with

469
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,160
Speaker 2: Houston on their side, is just I can't get over

470
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 2: how banged up that Ravens defenses and how this Houston

471
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 2: team will be able to move the ball and defensive

472
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 2: they will be able to get stops. Like we said,

473
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 2: this is a historically great defense in Houston, and I

474
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,200
Speaker 2: think they set a record or tied a record for

475
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:47,160
Speaker 2: at least amount of points allowed through the first four

476
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:51,680
Speaker 2: games with fifty one points. Like they've been dominant. So yeah,

477
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,639
Speaker 2: it's painful. I love Chad. The show is about me

478
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 2: giving Chad the best of the number. That's why when

479
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 2: I texted you, I was like, Okay, probably should get

480
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 2: another Simon says, because how many people were able to

481
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 2: get that three and a half? Literally people are fans

482
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 2: hit it. And then the news came out like an

483
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 2: hour after the show, and all of a sudden, it

484
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 2: really moved about two and a half on this Houston team. So,

485
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,120
Speaker 2: like we said, there's been buyback. You know, professional money

486
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 2: is obviously come on this raven side. To me, if

487
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 2: you have Houston, I think you have a good side

488
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:22,879
Speaker 2: at the three and a half. Obviously, I wouldn't do

489
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:24,639
Speaker 2: anything if I have to pick a side now with

490
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 2: this number, I'll be patient. See if you get the

491
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 2: Ravens back up to two and a half. To me,

492
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 2: that's that's where the value would be, just because I

493
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 2: do think obviously there it's a bad matchup for them

494
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 2: in Cooper Rush. But we've seen it. These backups that

495
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 2: come in that first game, especially this year, they've all

496
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,399
Speaker 2: done well like that. Whatever it is, but the defense

497
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 2: and I be able to have tape on them. I

498
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 2: know they have tape from Cooper Rush from previous years

499
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 2: in Dallas. You don't know what he's gonna run here

500
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 2: for this Ravens team. So yeah, I'm I'm again happy

501
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:53,919
Speaker 2: again in our contest, it's most likely gonna be three

502
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 2: and a half. That's gonna be an easy decision to

503
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,159
Speaker 2: take Houston there. I don't know about forcing Houston and

504
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 2: at minus one and a half. I just it feels

505
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 2: like we're forcing a betting here.

506
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 1: That totally right, Okay, Yeah, I only wanted to bring

507
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: it up because it felt like having done this with

508
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 1: you for a long time, I listened to the show

509
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 1: on Tuesday after the Lamar news and it felt like

510
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: a not just Simon says, Simon knows, and.

511
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 2: I wish it was that much. But yeah, I just

512
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 2: I had a very very very very reliable source where

513
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 2: it's like, holy shit, he might be really banged up.

514
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 2: And you saw like an hour after our show got posted.

515
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, Schefty and all these guys came out with it.

516
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:39,399
Speaker 2: So that's the toughest part doing our show. It's like

517
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 2: we got to do it and then post it. I

518
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,439
Speaker 2: know it's tough. There's two hours in there that's wasted

519
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 2: and only Chad's benefiting from it. But I know it's

520
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:48,120
Speaker 2: it's tough.

521
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:53,920
Speaker 1: People Denver at Philly, when we talked about this the

522
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 1: other day, it was it four and a half.

523
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 2: It's moved.

524
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 1: It's when we like Denver, it moved to three and

525
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:02,640
Speaker 1: a half. And like I'd say, the last forty eight hours,

526
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 1: I've dug into this game pretty aggressively trying to figure

527
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 1: out do I have an opinion. I can mostly find

528
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 1: reasons not to like either team. And so you know,

529
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: like Denver's defense is great, but they're blitz in a

530
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:21,159
Speaker 1: crazy amount to get all the pressure that they're getting.

531
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 1: The problem is the Eagles, like their offensive line is

532
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: banged up. Pass certain can probably lock down aj Brown

533
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:35,439
Speaker 1: on Eliminade, the primary weapon that Jalen Hurts would go

534
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 1: to under any kind of pressure. Saquon Barkley has not

535
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 1: been getting the yardage that he obviously got last year.

536
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:47,440
Speaker 1: And defensively, like there's a lot of holes for this defense,

537
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 1: especially in pass coverage. So my biggest fear, ultimately, my

538
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 1: biggest fear in backing the Broncos, which I will do,

539
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 1: is Bonicks Bonix against good teams. How is Bonix gonna

540
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 1: get over the hump against a good team.

541
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 2: That's as my biggest fear with this, That's what I'm saying, Yeah,

542
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 2: Denver side, it's Bonnicks has struggled as a dog I

543
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:16,360
Speaker 2: think he's four and seven his career against the spread,

544
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 2: nine and two as a favorite, so he's done very

545
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:21,679
Speaker 2: well as a favorite in his young career and he

546
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 2: struggled as a dog Historically. Denver coming to Philly bad spot.

547
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,120
Speaker 2: I think they're one in six lifetime. The one win

548
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 2: was John Elway. Which when did he retire, Chad, like

549
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 2: ninety nine or two thousand, so it's been a long time.

550
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 1: I think I covered John Elway's last game, which was

551
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 1: that Super Bowl. I'm not I'm not even joking.

552
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 2: So like it, it's a weird spot for this Denver team,

553
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 2: and it really is. I love the line. I even

554
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 2: had doctor Nick hit me up being like this is

555
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 2: my favorite game the luck rankings and loves Denver here,

556
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,919
Speaker 2: and I agree with him. The Eagles have been very lucky.

557
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 2: And that's why I couldn't get over the media this

558
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 2: week what they were gonna do with this Eagles team,

559
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,959
Speaker 2: because it's just it's what they dream of. It's nonsensical

560
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,119
Speaker 2: talk about a four and zero team, and they're just

561
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 2: looking for reasons to pick it apart. Like I love

562
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 2: that Saquin hasn't broken one hundred yards yet, cause it's like, well,

563
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 2: I thought we were only good orgin was only good

564
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 2: Causeaquon was good. I mean, what's the excuse now this

565
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 2: year or you know, the defense. They have weaknesses obviously,

566
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 2: but you've seen that this these guys and how he's

567
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 2: drafted for this Eagles team. Quannon Mitchell a guy I

568
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 2: gave out, you know, early in the year to be

569
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 2: defensive play of the Year. He was incredible last week.

570
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 2: Kuberty Jean quickly become one of the best tacklers in

571
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 2: all of football. Like, this kid is incredible, and this

572
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 2: should be a good matchup for this Eagles team. But

573
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 2: I think Chad and nailed it. Like the the weakness.

574
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 2: What everyone's not talking about to me is just that

575
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 2: interior line of this Eagles team that Dickerson's been banged up.

576
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 1: The Lane Johnson.

577
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, Lane Johnson's been come in out of games. It's

578
00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 2: the first four weeks and it's unstable right now. And

579
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 2: that's what's been the issue with their team is that

580
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 2: when everyone's in and the guys are in rhythm, their

581
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 2: offense clicks, and all of a sudden, a guy goes

582
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 2: out or something one of the guys you know, doesn't

583
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 2: isn't feeling right. In the second half and you just

584
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 2: see their whole offense stumble because they just can't They

585
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 2: can't block right now. So this Eagles team keeps getting

586
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 2: away with it, like they got away the last week.

587
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 2: We should not have covered last week. I keep saying

588
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 2: that the line reflects that this line should be two

589
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 2: and a half. Three. We're getting good value in Denver,

590
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 2: but we're both walking right into it this Eagles team.

591
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 2: That's how football is some down these teams that are

592
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 2: underperforming a general public, they're winning games and in the

593
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 2: big moments, their team steps up in those type of moments.

594
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 2: So if you can get the four and a half,

595
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 2: I would go grab it. There was one still out there,

596
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 2: But like Chad said, this, this is gonna be three

597
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 2: and a half. Every pro I know is taking the

598
00:29:56,360 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 2: Denver side. Everyone agrees the Eagles are overvalued to the public.

599
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 2: They will come in on this Eagle side. This will

600
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 2: be another I mean probably will be in our money

601
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 2: line around Robin Like, it's a good spot historically for

602
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 2: this Eagles team to win outright, But it's that number

603
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 2: with the hook they're sucking me in. There's a couple

604
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 2: of games this week with that where it's like I

605
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 2: can't help it. I can't help it with the hook

606
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 2: still three and a half. I want it, I've always

607
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 2: wanted it. They're they're they're keeping it there chat so

608
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 2: I think we're getting a good number. I do like

609
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 2: this Denver side, and like you said, it's it's scary

610
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 2: because we're we're lying a lot on bon nixt year.

611
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 2: But I think there's other ways, especially with that run

612
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:32,800
Speaker 2: game with Dobbins, that they can attack this Eagles defense.

613
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 1: This game has a rock and a hard plays feel

614
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 1: to me.

615
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 2: It does. I can I go, honestly see it being hard,

616
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 2: debate different.

617
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: I just feel like we're gonna I feel like ultimately

618
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 1: we're gonna be on the Broncos. And by the way,

619
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 1: I was just looking back at my notes, I forgot

620
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 1: I did bet the Broncos at four and a half.

621
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 1: And like you said, there is still one place out

622
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 1: there with a four and a half, ye shup around

623
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 1: so you can you can find it. But I feel

624
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 1: like it's gonna be It's gonna be a hard one.

625
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 1: It really is.

626
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 3: Uh Dallas at the New York j e ts je

627
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 3: Jets Jets plus two and a half. Guess what Simon,

628
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 3: The New York Jets are going to be our brass.

629
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 1: Balls better the week.

630
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 2: You know what it takes.

631
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 1: It takes brass balls, Listen. I wanted this at three.

632
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 1: This could have been at Chad Loves I wanted a three.

633
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,120
Speaker 1: It didn't get there until after our show on Tuesday.

634
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 1: I did bet it at three, even with some extra juice,

635
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 1: just because I wanted that insurance on the Jets. I

636
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 1: feel like the Jets are going to be in our

637
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 1: money line underdog round Robin parlay. You know it's clearly

638
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 1: the sharp shot or the New York Jets. You know

639
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 1: you can eat. Like, here's my questions for you. Are

640
00:31:58,800 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 1: you ready?

641
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 2: Yeah?

642
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 1: What would you say has been the strength of the

643
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys this year?

644
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 2: Easy? Dak.

645
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,479
Speaker 1: Do you know how many points a game they are scoring?

646
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: Thirty twenty nine, twenty eight and a half, fifth in

647
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 1: the league.

648
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, that sounds right.

649
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 1: Two forty point games this season. Do you know how

650
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 1: many games Justin Fields has won when the opponents scores

651
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 1: more than twenty one points?

652
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 2: I mean, going back to his Bears year is probably

653
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 2: zero zero. Yeah, that sounds right.

654
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: I think he is Ozero and twenty four when the

655
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 1: opponents score twenty one points. Here's why this is our

656
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: brass balls better the week. The Jets have given up

657
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 1: this year thirty four to thirty, twenty nine, and twenty

658
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 1: seven the good news. The good news is that they

659
00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 1: are giving up fewer and fewer points every week. So

660
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 1: could be the week where they get a team to

661
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 1: score less than twenty points. I don't know, but they're

662
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 1: gonna be our brass balls better the week.

663
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 2: Yeah. And it's a unique spot for this Jets team

664
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 2: that they're going against a defense that is, like Shadda said,

665
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 2: is as bad as their own defense. And they're inflated

666
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 2: Dallas right now like this, the public is gonna have

667
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 2: a love affair with them. They're gonna be all all

668
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 2: in on Dak, loving Dak for good reason. Like I talk,

669
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 2: we talked about coming in the year, everyone had forgotten

670
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 2: about Dak left over dead. I was the one down

671
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 2: on the table saying, this guy is still a really

672
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 2: high level guy. I get the pieces around him are

673
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 2: very bad, but they're gonna steal games this year. They're

674
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 2: gonna be a competitive team just because that Pickens, add

675
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 2: to me, is one of the bigger sneaky ads of

676
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 2: the whole year where it's like what he does really

677
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 2: well is some of Dak's favorite balls, those tight end,

678
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 2: those tight throws on the sideline. Dak loves and is

679
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 2: really good at throwing them. That's like pickens money, Like

680
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 2: he's so good in the small windows. So you know

681
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 2: a guy that is gonna have a good matchup against

682
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 2: this defense of the Jets, because I think we could

683
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 2: both agree Sauce is not now whatever that was and

684
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 2: they paid him. It's like the fear of every owner.

685
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 2: He just has. Whatever is going on with him off

686
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:15,359
Speaker 2: the field has to has to have been affected him

687
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:17,240
Speaker 2: on the field because we know the raw talent is there,

688
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,880
Speaker 2: like he has got the skills, he's just not that

689
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 2: player anymore. So that's that's scary part is that he

690
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 2: will be on pickings. But thank god now CD here

691
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 2: and that to me is a big deal where you know,

692
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 2: Ferguson has really excelled this year their tight end for Dallas,

693
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:33,839
Speaker 2: and that's gonna be another way for this Dallas team

694
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 2: to attack. But I think the fact that we can

695
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 2: have Sauce on a number one and now the game's

696
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:40,840
Speaker 2: gonna be forced to a tight end in the middle

697
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 2: that's gonna benefit this Jets team and offensively wen't even

698
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 2: talked about it. I love this matchup for fields and

699
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 2: this run game, and like you said, I like it. Yeah,

700
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 2: that that game against Miami, if they could just hold

701
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 2: onto the ball, they would have won that game. I

702
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,240
Speaker 2: feel like like, especially once that defense Miami got tired,

703
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 2: it was over. That's the thing with He'll wear you out,

704
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:04,399
Speaker 2: especially with that run game. They have to win this game.

705
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,320
Speaker 2: Like we said, this is another desperate team and at desperate spot.

706
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 2: And we have no doubt the Jets were of the

707
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,320
Speaker 2: worst teams of football. Like I before the year, I clisemized,

708
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 2: I could see see how they could do it. They

709
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 2: could win games this year and they could be a team.

710
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:18,720
Speaker 2: And they've had the opportunities, right, they could be easily

711
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 2: be two and two. Like they've had games that they've

712
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 2: could have stolen in won and you know, I guess

713
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 2: we should have known. Like that Pittsburgh game Week one,

714
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 2: that sums up these two teams, right, Tomlin would ever

715
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 2: magical win. Jets found a way to lose that game,

716
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 2: and that's what they've done this year. They're same little Jets.

717
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 2: So two and a half, three this is a Jets number,

718
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 2: you know, like Chet said, this is gonna be the

719
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:43,840
Speaker 2: professional side. The square side is no doubt the Dallas side,

720
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 2: And like I said on Sunday Show, I don't know

721
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 2: if Dallas can be favored against bad teams anymore. To me,

722
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:51,320
Speaker 2: they are just simply a bad team. This should be

723
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 2: close to a pick scary bet. Like Chad said, this

724
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 2: is our brass balls bet. You need to just like

725
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,279
Speaker 2: last week, we said, when we're taking these bets, you

726
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 2: gotta have some some balls here for people to take them.

727
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:03,800
Speaker 2: So I love that we're all line on the side.

728
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 2: Give me the Jets plus two and a half. You

729
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 2: got some balls, my friend.

730
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 1: This is the prime time tie bump for the Dallas Cowboys,

731
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 1: not the win. The best they can get is a tie.

732
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 1: And everyone's all in on the Dallas Cowboys because they

733
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 1: did something against a team that a lot of people

734
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 1: think can go to the super Bowl. So I think

735
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 1: we said this on Tuesday, this is the ultimate Pilo

736
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 1: Sell high spot because we had back to back primetime

737
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:34,359
Speaker 1: teams looking as good as one can look and as

738
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 1: bad as one can look. Jets, Jets, Jets, Jets, brass

739
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 1: balls bet of the Week. Today's show is brought to

740
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 1: you by our new presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet. Week

741
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 1: five kicks off tonight with a California showdown between San

742
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:55,799
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746
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:06,680
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747
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:11,439
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Speaker 1: like tonight Rams, money line and the under stafford passing

760
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766
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769
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771
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772
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773
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774
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Tampa Bay Box. Going

775
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:46,360
Speaker 1: across the country visiting the Seattle Seahawks. The bucks are

776
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 1: three and a half. You've sort of dug in on

777
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 1: the box. I haven't bet this game. I kind of

778
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 1: lean Seattle, and I think this defense is just so good.

779
00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 1: And I don't think you can discount the fact of

780
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 1: how good they are getting pressure without ever blitzing. We

781
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 1: talked about the Broncos. The Broncos are great at getting pressure,

782
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:12,440
Speaker 1: but the Broncos need to blitz to get the pressure.

783
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:17,800
Speaker 1: And like the Seahawks, and I'm talking about overall statistically,

784
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 1: like the Broncos are blitzing more than anyone else in football.

785
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:26,359
Speaker 2: And though, right, what's that? Like Patrick is so good

786
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 2: at one on one shut down corner, they can use

787
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:30,440
Speaker 2: that fifth guy to blitz. They don't need to have.

788
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 2: That's true. That's true.

789
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 1: The Seahawks are only rushing four, They're like They're blitzer

790
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 1: rate is the second lowest in the league. And so

791
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 1: isn't that What usually gives Baker a hard time is

792
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 1: when they're not blitzing because it's everybody is covered downfield.

793
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:52,760
Speaker 1: So I worry about that. I worry about Bucky Irving.

794
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:57,399
Speaker 1: I like betting on good defenses. I think they are

795
00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 1: safe and reliable. You know, I got I don't love

796
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:01,760
Speaker 1: the Bucks. Here is what I'm saying.

797
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's someone that loves the Seahawks. You know,

798
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:08,879
Speaker 2: I get where you're coming from. To me, though, this

799
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:11,239
Speaker 2: is a Baker spot in a cell spot on the

800
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 2: Seahawks team. And this would be a bigger bet of

801
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 2: mind if, like you said, it wasn't for the injuries,

802
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:18,439
Speaker 2: because I do think Bucky Iring is a huge deal.

803
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:20,879
Speaker 2: Like this guy is electric. Every time he touches the ball,

804
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 2: he could break it for seventy years. One of the

805
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 2: best weapons of football. But like I said, this is

806
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 2: a Baker number, a Baker spot. I had to go

807
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:34,360
Speaker 2: try to find the numbers. Shout to my got Evan Abrams.

808
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 2: He put it all on one nice spot for me

809
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 2: because I was like, what is Baker's career as a dog,

810
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 2: And I think I was going too far back where

811
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 2: I just really need to focus on what he's been

812
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 2: with this Bucks team. So as an underdog in the spot,

813
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 2: Baker fifteen and eight against the spread as an underdog

814
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 2: covering by five and a half points per game. So

815
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 2: that's what I think is like built into me. It's

816
00:40:58,120 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 2: like Baker has been so good to me in these

817
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 2: exact spots, and how can you not want to sell

818
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 2: a Seahawks team that they are good. This is no

819
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 2: doubt the best defense they've faced all year. Like people

820
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 2: are gonna start realizing this secondary like the cover corners.

821
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 2: I know the Eagles got shut down. They got some

822
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 2: young studs on that on that team down in Tampa,

823
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 2: like Todd Bowles is coaching these young kids up, and

824
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:26,839
Speaker 2: they're scrappy, Like I loved going back watching that game

825
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:29,799
Speaker 2: where even when it wasn't even when it was a

826
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 2: tight window, they're very handsy, very physical receivers, and I

827
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 2: think that's where you need to be with the Seahawks team.

828
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 2: And you know Jsn, a guy I gave out the

829
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,280
Speaker 2: lead the league in receiving yards. I think he's second

830
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 2: right now. He's been dominant for the Seahawks. He's been

831
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 2: one of the best receivers in football. On him and

832
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:45,320
Speaker 2: Sam Donald of a real connection right now. So I

833
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:46,840
Speaker 2: think it's gonna be interesting to see what they do

834
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 2: when you got Vitave taking again, taking away their run game,

835
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:53,399
Speaker 2: and you have some really good secondary options taking out

836
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:57,400
Speaker 2: JSN and that attacking offensive Seahawks. Like again, I like

837
00:41:57,440 --> 00:42:00,040
Speaker 2: the under in this game more than anything else, but

838
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 2: I think you're getting good value on this. This Bucks

839
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 2: team of three and a half, where again they should

840
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,719
Speaker 2: have covered. In my opinion last week, this line's moved

841
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:09,320
Speaker 2: too much based on the injuries. It was two and

842
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 2: a half, it did open two and a half, and

843
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:13,160
Speaker 2: now it's moved up to three and a half. But

844
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 2: like I said, if you just want to avoid it,

845
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:18,319
Speaker 2: I get it. The professionals I know that I've talked

846
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:20,359
Speaker 2: to you. They like the Seahawks side. Not finding too

847
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:22,359
Speaker 2: many guys like me that love this Buck side. So

848
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:25,440
Speaker 2: maybe I'm not reading this one correctly, and that's why

849
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 2: I'm being a little hesitant with it. But yeah, once again,

850
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 2: just like Denver, they're getting me with the hook. I

851
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 2: just can't believe it's it's three and a half. I

852
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 2: just this game should be three. In my opinion, they

853
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 2: desperately need money and some other people to bet this

854
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 2: Bucks team, clearly because this hook has just been up

855
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:43,799
Speaker 2: for three days now. So pretty pretty interesting line here

856
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 2: with a Seahawks Bucks game.

857
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 1: Well, as John Popper once said, the hook will bring

858
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 1: you back.

859
00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:51,280
Speaker 2: That's true.

860
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 1: By the way, you shout it out. Evan Abrams, greatest

861
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:58,120
Speaker 1: researcher of all time all the time. You also mentioned

862
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 1: doctor Nick, Doctor Nick Giffen, who created the Luck rankings

863
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 1: over at Action, which we love, and I do believe

864
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:14,759
Speaker 1: that this is sort of the Eagles and the Broncos

865
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 1: game is like the Marquee Luck matchup in the Luck

866
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 1: Rankings this week in favor of the Broncos. If we need,

867
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 1: if we're looking something to tip the scales rock in

868
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 1: a hard place, Detroit at Cincinnati. We talked about this

869
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 1: a little bit before we came on the air. Cincinnati

870
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 1: is at ten and a half, seven and a half,

871
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:38,560
Speaker 1: eight and a half, nine and a half, ten, ten

872
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 1: and a half. When's it going to stop, Simon, And like,

873
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 1: here's another exciting staff for you. Also from our pal

874
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. In the first three months of the season.

875
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:52,919
Speaker 1: I saw Evan tweet this in the first three months

876
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 1: of the season. Zach Taylor, So September, October, November is

877
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:03,919
Speaker 1: and sixteen without Joe Burrow his quarterback, Okay, like he's

878
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 1: clearly terrible with anyone but Joe Burrow as a coach.

879
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 1: Here's the other thing. According to Killer Sports, home underdogs

880
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:14,759
Speaker 1: ten plus points in the NFL. Of ten plus points

881
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:18,320
Speaker 1: in the NFL since nineteen eighty nine, fifty four percent

882
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 1: underdogs of ten plus points off a blowout of twenty

883
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 1: five or more fifty four percent. That is the history.

884
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:32,839
Speaker 1: Full disclosure, I have not bet this yet. I don't

885
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 1: want to bet this. I know you're on the Lions, yeah,

886
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:39,919
Speaker 1: but I feel like we should bet the Bengals.

887
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 2: I know. Now I'm on the lines, and I'll hit

888
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 2: you with a bunch of stats like I've I really

889
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:46,080
Speaker 2: dove into this one.

890
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 1: Because because you know, I want to bet the Bengals, and.

891
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 2: I'm trying to find reasons why I want to be

892
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 2: on the Bengals, but I cannot find it. And you know,

893
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:55,360
Speaker 2: these just all these stats are just so alarming, Like

894
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 2: you said, a ton of them on social media. People

895
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:59,320
Speaker 2: want to find them. But my fair one I saw

896
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:02,680
Speaker 2: was it the Bengals. In their last two games, they've

897
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:05,280
Speaker 2: lost by twenty five points. Crazy.

898
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 1: Yep.

899
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 2: They had under two hundred total yards, they had under

900
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 2: sixty rushing yards, and they were out rushed by one

901
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 2: hundred yards and gave up three plus sacks.

902
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:15,840
Speaker 1: It's terrible.

903
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:18,480
Speaker 2: No team in NFL history, in the Super Bowl era,

904
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:21,239
Speaker 2: has ever done that in a two game stretch. This

905
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:22,759
Speaker 2: is a train wreck.

906
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 1: They are They are awful. Like we've talked about this

907
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:29,719
Speaker 1: on Tuesday. The Bengals are one of the lowliest, losingest,

908
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 1: most undirect, undecorated franchises in the history of the NFL,

909
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:38,960
Speaker 1: and the past two weeks of games have been the

910
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 1: worst they have been in their entire franchise history. Truly terrible.

911
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I got you know, we got lucky. Obviously.

912
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 2: We were on this team being bad this year and

913
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:55,040
Speaker 2: failing and the Joe Burrow injury takes it up to

914
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 2: another level, right, And I said it before the season.

915
00:45:57,600 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 2: I thought this would happen because they were built like

916
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:02,799
Speaker 2: a sixteen year old built this team. It's like, let's

917
00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 2: pay the receiver, let's pay the quarterback, let's pay a

918
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 2: d end. The rest will just fill it out, like

919
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:10,080
Speaker 2: just fill it out with random guys, and that's never

920
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:12,120
Speaker 2: gonna work. You have to be smart with your money,

921
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:14,520
Speaker 2: manage your right, pay guys early, do all that stuff.

922
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 2: When you're a bad team like they are. They did

923
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 2: the opposite. They paid all their guys late, and they didn't.

924
00:46:19,160 --> 00:46:22,440
Speaker 2: They haven't drafted well. And I'll go back to it,

925
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:25,279
Speaker 2: you know, the same reason we loved this Detroit team.

926
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:27,239
Speaker 2: I mean, it's been two straight weeks I've been on

927
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 2: them as Big Talk favorites. Detroit. Campbell. We saw it.

928
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 2: He won by you know, huge win last week by

929
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:39,600
Speaker 2: more than six points twenty three and six against the spread.

930
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 2: When he wins by seven plus and more than seven

931
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:45,279
Speaker 2: points twenty and five against the spread in the next game.

932
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:50,360
Speaker 2: So they're the anomaly historically, you go back to the data,

933
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 2: there's never been teams like this. This has been the

934
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:55,200
Speaker 2: most epic run ever. You know, we should on the

935
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:57,680
Speaker 2: Tennessee Titans, the most epic run ever if you fade them.

936
00:46:58,040 --> 00:47:01,640
Speaker 2: Since Dan Campbell has taken over this team, this Detroit team,

937
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 2: they're seventy against the spread. I think it's like the

938
00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 2: greatest run since some Viking team from back in the day.

939
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 2: It's like truly historical what we're on right now, this team.

940
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:15,440
Speaker 2: So Chad's reasoning is right. If this was Week nine

941
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:20,800
Speaker 2: and this Bengals team had been as often as they've looked,

942
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 2: I'd been like, well, Detroit has a bunch of injuries

943
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 2: to their defense, Chase will be able to get open.

944
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:27,200
Speaker 2: He's gonna be bitching all week. He's gonna get the ball.

945
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:30,239
Speaker 2: This is the matchup for this Bengals team. But even

946
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 2: if they get that seven on that drive, are they

947
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:35,239
Speaker 2: gonna get to twenty one? Are they gonna get to

948
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:36,959
Speaker 2: twenty eight? Because I feel like that's what they're gonna

949
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 2: need to do against this Lion's team. I just I

950
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 2: don't see their defense getting stops. They don't have the guys,

951
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:47,400
Speaker 2: so Aden Hutchinson he's gonna do his thing in this game.

952
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 2: And offensively, I just I can see them rolling. I mean,

953
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:54,800
Speaker 2: it must have insane going for the Browns last week

954
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:57,279
Speaker 2: trying to run the ball and all the contact they

955
00:47:57,280 --> 00:47:59,680
Speaker 2: were getting to this week, it's gonna be like running

956
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:02,520
Speaker 2: through paid. It's going to be unreal for this Lions team.

957
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:04,480
Speaker 2: So that's why this number is what it is. The

958
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 2: books don't want to be up this high. Like I

959
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,319
Speaker 2: told Chad, if you can find the nine and a half,

960
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:10,680
Speaker 2: I'd grab it. I just think this will be ten

961
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:15,080
Speaker 2: and ten and a half. The professional side, sure is

962
00:48:15,120 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 2: the Bengals, but I know just as many pros like

963
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:21,439
Speaker 2: me on this Lion side, So it's it's a split game.

964
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's gonna be one of my

965
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:26,839
Speaker 2: five I'll make us forced income Sunday, but I could

966
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 2: get it.

967
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 1: I don't think it.

968
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:29,959
Speaker 2: I don't think, yeah, again you're on the other side.

969
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:32,759
Speaker 2: But I can't get over how bad this Bengals team

970
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 2: is and you're simply betting. It's just because of the

971
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:35,360
Speaker 2: number of the spot.

972
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:38,880
Speaker 1: And how often do we say you bet the number,

973
00:48:39,400 --> 00:48:40,279
Speaker 1: you bet the.

974
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:42,280
Speaker 2: Spot number the Why isn't this thirteen?

975
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 1: This is the I don't know, it's too well, well,

976
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:49,359
Speaker 1: that's the handicap then, like, but at ten and a half,

977
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:54,280
Speaker 1: it's still a massive, massive number that historically everyone says,

978
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:57,480
Speaker 1: everything says, you bet the number, you bet the spot.

979
00:48:57,760 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 1: That's it. It doesn't matter if it's thirteen or ten

980
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:02,400
Speaker 1: and a half, it's double digits, it's a huge number,

981
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:06,080
Speaker 1: like you bet the spot. I don't feel like I'm

982
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:08,000
Speaker 1: looking at our list right now. I don't feel like

983
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:10,439
Speaker 1: it's going to crack into the top five. I think

984
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:13,360
Speaker 1: we've got four settled, and I think right now Denver

985
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 1: and Philly is sort of the rock and a hard

986
00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 1: places decision with some other games coming up. But interesting,

987
00:49:20,760 --> 00:49:26,800
Speaker 1: interesting game from a handicapping perspective versus a philosophical don't

988
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 1: look at the teams bet the number perspective. So I'm

989
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:33,200
Speaker 1: excited to see how that one goes, I haven't bet

990
00:49:33,239 --> 00:49:35,239
Speaker 1: it yet. I haven't bet it. I'm afraid to pull

991
00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 1: the trigger. Washington plus two and a half the Los

992
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:42,920
Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers. This is when we told people to grab

993
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, expecting Jayden and Daniels to play. It did

994
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:48,399
Speaker 1: get to three at some point on Tuesday. It's back

995
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 1: down to two and a half. He was cleared he's

996
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:52,040
Speaker 1: going to be playing. I just wanted to raise it

997
00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 1: because the number had moved and we now know who

998
00:49:54,080 --> 00:49:58,399
Speaker 1: the quarterback is. Doesn't feel like it's getting into our

999
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 1: top five unless you feel more strong.

1000
00:50:01,080 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 2: Simon says, give me this commander's team.

1001
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:08,279
Speaker 1: Wow, call me, Simon, what do you want?

1002
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:09,720
Speaker 2: I want to play a game?

1003
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:11,200
Speaker 1: What kind of game?

1004
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 2: Simon says, yeah, love, love, love this game. Love this spot.

1005
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 2: Was really just waiting for it to be Daniels, even

1006
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 2: though Mariota has been good, still would have been on it.

1007
00:50:21,040 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 2: But in my mind this probably would have got the

1008
00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:25,760
Speaker 2: three and a half if it was Mariota. The movement

1009
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:28,920
Speaker 2: to me is right. Had this game honestly is a

1010
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 2: pick and it is because of the injuries's Chargers team

1011
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 2: and I got some numbers about this Chargers now and

1012
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 2: it's it's been kind of glaring, and it sucks that

1013
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:44,680
Speaker 2: I got I didn't get it. I should have covered.

1014
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:47,680
Speaker 2: We should have covered with that Denver game. That was

1015
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 2: just Herbert pull a rabbit that hat like he made

1016
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:52,480
Speaker 2: a throw the way he buy his position. That Denver game,

1017
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:55,359
Speaker 2: that throw he made, it's like in the end zone. Yeah,

1018
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:57,799
Speaker 2: it's like two guys other than him in NFL history

1019
00:50:57,800 --> 00:51:01,000
Speaker 2: can make that throw up balanced. It's it's why people

1020
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:03,600
Speaker 2: love Herbert. But when I dive into it, it's like, Okay,

1021
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 2: this is historically a bad spot for Herbert and you

1022
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 2: can actually throw herball in that. So shockingly, when an

1023
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:14,239
Speaker 2: East Coast team comes West, harrball, he's one and two

1024
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:16,960
Speaker 2: straight up with this Chargers team, which, again small sample,

1025
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:21,280
Speaker 2: Herbert eight nine straight up in this exact spot. Now, okay,

1026
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:23,680
Speaker 2: that doesn't mean much. Now let's dive into Herbert this

1027
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 2: season under pressure. Okay, Herbert again, I say it all

1028
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:29,960
Speaker 2: the time. He is a great quarterback when things are

1029
00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:31,959
Speaker 2: going right with him, right, when his offensive line is good.

1030
00:51:32,239 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 2: He's got the weapons on the outside, just like most

1031
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:36,399
Speaker 2: guys would be. If you give him time, Herbert will

1032
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:40,360
Speaker 2: crush your teams. Know that. So this year He's faced

1033
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:43,000
Speaker 2: sixty nine drop back pressures, so that's the second most

1034
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:46,399
Speaker 2: and all football, behind Joe Flacco. That's alarming. You don't

1035
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:48,600
Speaker 2: want to be in the same category as Joe Flacco

1036
00:51:48,640 --> 00:51:50,560
Speaker 2: this season. And so it's like, all right, let's dive

1037
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:53,200
Speaker 2: in those numbers this last three weeks. Right, So the

1038
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:55,799
Speaker 2: last three weeks where his offensive line's been banged up,

1039
00:51:56,640 --> 00:52:00,120
Speaker 2: he's fifteen of forty two thirty six percent passing. He's

1040
00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:05,320
Speaker 2: under pressure, one touchdown, two picks. So I have these numbers.

1041
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 2: I'm some douche in Jersey. The Washington Commander's gonna have

1042
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:11,760
Speaker 2: these numbers. And they've been blits heavy this year because

1043
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:13,480
Speaker 2: they need to be. They don't have the corners to

1044
00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:17,239
Speaker 2: shut teams down. They have really bad corners. And their

1045
00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:19,160
Speaker 2: front seven, though, has been really good this washingt team.

1046
00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:20,719
Speaker 2: I know last week they got ran on, but that's

1047
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 2: actually been pretty good for them, this front seven. So

1048
00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:26,000
Speaker 2: it's like, Okay, that's the way they can attack this

1049
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:28,919
Speaker 2: Chargers team. They just gotta get pressure on Herbert. Now

1050
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:32,239
Speaker 2: you're factoring I like this matchup for Daniels where they

1051
00:52:32,239 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 2: don't they have injuries themselves as Chargers team to their defense,

1052
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:37,759
Speaker 2: they don't have linebackers or guys that can keep up

1053
00:52:37,840 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 2: or spy Daniels. This is a bad match for them.

1054
00:52:40,120 --> 00:52:42,880
Speaker 2: And what I've read is he could have probably played

1055
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:45,799
Speaker 2: last week. Daniels. They really wanted to get him right.

1056
00:52:45,800 --> 00:52:48,719
Speaker 2: They didn't want the party situation right. Party came back

1057
00:52:48,760 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 2: to really reinjury. The injury. I love that they were

1058
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:53,600
Speaker 2: patient with him and now he's coming back fully healthy

1059
00:52:53,600 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 2: in this matchup. So I know the publics, I think

1060
00:52:56,800 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 2: is a bounce back spot for the Chargers team, and

1061
00:52:59,400 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 2: you know this, Washington just got blown out, So I

1062
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:04,799
Speaker 2: just feel like this is going to be a pro spot, Like, no,

1063
00:53:05,600 --> 00:53:07,879
Speaker 2: the public is not gonna be betting this commander spot. They're

1064
00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:10,360
Speaker 2: gonna be back in the Charters team, which just a

1065
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 2: week ago, Chad was asking me if they're better than

1066
00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:14,839
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, if I trust them were in the Chiefs,

1067
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:16,319
Speaker 2: which other time I was like, I get where you're

1068
00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:19,279
Speaker 2: coming from. It's this is a team that's performed way

1069
00:53:19,320 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 2: above and my expectations coming to the season. How can

1070
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:25,359
Speaker 2: we not overact to the Joe Joel injury, Like this guy,

1071
00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:30,120
Speaker 2: you're losing your number one, number two tackles and they

1072
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 2: are down you know more in tier offensive lineman. That's

1073
00:53:34,280 --> 00:53:35,719
Speaker 2: gonna be a killing heels of this team they have.

1074
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:37,839
Speaker 2: It sucks too because Herbert's got the weapons, right Keen,

1075
00:53:37,880 --> 00:53:41,200
Speaker 2: Allen's turned back the clock. Lad's been bad honestly, like

1076
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:46,360
Speaker 2: he's been outplayed by Johnson. Yeah, that's been bad. And

1077
00:53:46,440 --> 00:53:48,799
Speaker 2: Johnson's been a stud. Like. They have three receivers that

1078
00:53:48,840 --> 00:53:52,279
Speaker 2: are all really good, maybe the best three in the

1079
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:53,040
Speaker 2: history of football.

1080
00:53:53,120 --> 00:53:56,600
Speaker 1: ChIL oh, No, you're not pulling that on, chesting that

1081
00:53:56,719 --> 00:53:57,600
Speaker 1: out again.

1082
00:53:58,280 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 2: But yeah, I just it's about the number. I love

1083
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:02,879
Speaker 2: this match o for this Commander's team. I think they're

1084
00:54:02,880 --> 00:54:06,799
Speaker 2: being undervalued in this Chargers team still being there's still

1085
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:09,440
Speaker 2: got that glossy lens on like they did when they

1086
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:11,480
Speaker 2: beat that Chiefs team, which I was a sucker for

1087
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:13,480
Speaker 2: it too. It's like this team was fully healthy right

1088
00:54:13,480 --> 00:54:16,800
Speaker 2: here at two and a half. All over this Chargers

1089
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:18,719
Speaker 2: team that is not. They're being priced like they're that

1090
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:21,319
Speaker 2: team that beat the Chiefs. This is not that same team.

1091
00:54:21,360 --> 00:54:24,200
Speaker 2: This is a banged up team. So yeah, trusting the

1092
00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:28,279
Speaker 2: number here, trusting the spot. Hold your nose, people, this

1093
00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:30,360
Speaker 2: is a gross one. Give me this Commander's team plus

1094
00:54:30,360 --> 00:54:31,400
Speaker 2: two and a half all right.

1095
00:54:31,440 --> 00:54:33,799
Speaker 1: That's why I was sort of I'm surprised to hear this.

1096
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:35,839
Speaker 1: I was going to pass it because the number had moved.

1097
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:38,239
Speaker 1: And now we know Daniels, so you're saying take don't

1098
00:54:38,320 --> 00:54:41,319
Speaker 1: like it? All right, then it's going on the list. Now.

1099
00:54:41,360 --> 00:54:43,840
Speaker 1: I feel like we're gonna have a rock and a

1100
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:48,879
Speaker 1: hard place between Denver Eagles and Commanders and Chargers. Last

1101
00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:53,360
Speaker 1: game Kansas City at Jacksonville. I like the Jacksonville Jaguars

1102
00:54:54,120 --> 00:54:57,319
Speaker 1: at three and a half. They are the underdogs at

1103
00:54:57,360 --> 00:55:00,400
Speaker 1: home on Monday night. It hasn't moved to read, but

1104
00:55:00,520 --> 00:55:03,319
Speaker 1: it is headed that way. The wise guys agree with me,

1105
00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 1: as you noted in sharp calls, you really love the

1106
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:12,759
Speaker 1: chiefs here. Well, oh oh, all of a sudden, All

1107
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:15,759
Speaker 1: of a sudden. The other day you were all over it,

1108
00:55:15,800 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 1: but today a little bit less confident.

1109
00:55:18,280 --> 00:55:20,200
Speaker 2: No, would just be trying to talk to you off it.

1110
00:55:20,360 --> 00:55:22,080
Speaker 2: I was like, can I get chat off this game?

1111
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 2: Because this is gonna have to be in our contest now,

1112
00:55:24,200 --> 00:55:24,760
Speaker 2: which sucks.

1113
00:55:24,800 --> 00:55:26,839
Speaker 1: It's like now I have By the way, it doesn't

1114
00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 1: I don't think it does. Here's why I don't think

1115
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:32,839
Speaker 1: it does. I don't think it does. Because there are

1116
00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 1: so many games this week where lines are fluky, we're

1117
00:55:35,120 --> 00:55:37,359
Speaker 1: going to be able to take advantage. I think that

1118
00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:39,919
Speaker 1: takes precedent to me over do we have to put

1119
00:55:39,960 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 1: in a hard game like this? Obviously I bet it.

1120
00:55:42,800 --> 00:55:45,360
Speaker 1: I definitely bet the Jags at plus three and a half.

1121
00:55:45,600 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 1: But do I feel better about choosing the Jags over Denver,

1122
00:55:50,120 --> 00:55:53,239
Speaker 1: which I also bet, or choosing the Commanders, which I

1123
00:55:53,280 --> 00:55:57,680
Speaker 1: also bet, Like I don't feel obligated to make this

1124
00:55:57,760 --> 00:56:00,160
Speaker 1: be a game that I am. I am demanding we

1125
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:00,920
Speaker 1: put in the contest.

1126
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:05,279
Speaker 2: Chad not up. Take a stand here. You you love

1127
00:56:05,320 --> 00:56:07,719
Speaker 2: this team. This was your love's lovel on Tuesday. Like

1128
00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:10,560
Speaker 2: you're all in? Be all in, brother, I get what

1129
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:13,120
Speaker 2: you're hesitant. I mean that's why I was hesitant here.

1130
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:16,880
Speaker 2: And I'm like, I see Spags Love licking his chops

1131
00:56:16,880 --> 00:56:20,080
Speaker 2: in this matchup against Trevor Lawrence. Word once again, they're

1132
00:56:20,120 --> 00:56:24,279
Speaker 2: winning despite him. They're it's really about the run game

1133
00:56:24,320 --> 00:56:26,320
Speaker 2: of the turnovers. Like you go through all the numbers,

1134
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:29,319
Speaker 2: I think they've already had more turnovers this season they

1135
00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:34,520
Speaker 2: did all last season. So you know, this Jaguars team

1136
00:56:34,560 --> 00:56:36,440
Speaker 2: that just might be their defense. Like we say all

1137
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:38,600
Speaker 2: the time a new team's gonna make the playoffs. The

1138
00:56:38,719 --> 00:56:40,640
Speaker 2: CHaGS fit that description right now.

1139
00:56:40,880 --> 00:56:42,920
Speaker 1: By the way, did you call them the CHaGS because

1140
00:56:42,920 --> 00:56:44,960
Speaker 1: I love them so much? Or was that just a slip?

1141
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:50,200
Speaker 2: I just yeah, I can't get over it. It's like you said,

1142
00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:52,520
Speaker 2: it's the pros. The Pros are on it with Chad,

1143
00:56:52,680 --> 00:56:56,399
Speaker 2: and when we got done our show, I put it in.

1144
00:56:56,520 --> 00:56:58,120
Speaker 2: Like I've been known every week, I try to put

1145
00:56:58,160 --> 00:57:00,520
Speaker 2: it in R five right away and then try to

1146
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:03,840
Speaker 2: make minimum changes on it, maybe one or two tops

1147
00:57:03,920 --> 00:57:06,799
Speaker 2: out of those five because, like we said, our early

1148
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:08,680
Speaker 2: reads tend to be the right reads, and we overthink

1149
00:57:08,680 --> 00:57:11,560
Speaker 2: it comes Sunday, so it's gonna be hard for me, honestly,

1150
00:57:11,600 --> 00:57:13,359
Speaker 2: take them out now because I have them in there.

1151
00:57:13,880 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 2: I see your reasoning, and this is going to be

1152
00:57:16,840 --> 00:57:20,200
Speaker 2: shaping up to be one of the big public sides.

1153
00:57:20,200 --> 00:57:23,200
Speaker 2: Like I talked to multiple book makers in different states.

1154
00:57:23,640 --> 00:57:25,160
Speaker 2: That's a big thing for me. I like hearing from

1155
00:57:25,200 --> 00:57:27,520
Speaker 2: all different states because I don't want to just be regional.

1156
00:57:28,280 --> 00:57:30,640
Speaker 2: It's all chiefs money. Everyone's thinking like I am, like,

1157
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:34,040
Speaker 2: this is such a Spags matchup against Trevor. This is

1158
00:57:35,320 --> 00:57:38,240
Speaker 2: a Jaguars team that's been very fortunate they've gotten away

1159
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 2: with it. But I view it as you know, maybe

1160
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:43,360
Speaker 2: I'm overrating too much of that Chiefs offense against that

1161
00:57:44,040 --> 00:57:46,720
Speaker 2: Ravens defense. This is a good defense, this Jaguars team,

1162
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:49,560
Speaker 2: which I'm coming around on, and there are ways to

1163
00:57:49,600 --> 00:57:52,240
Speaker 2: attack Spags defense right now because they do have injuries

1164
00:57:52,280 --> 00:57:54,240
Speaker 2: and they are slower than they've been in the past.

1165
00:57:54,280 --> 00:57:57,920
Speaker 2: So the pros love Chad's number, they love the three

1166
00:57:57,960 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 2: and a half, and that to me is the key here.

1167
00:58:00,040 --> 00:58:01,840
Speaker 2: If you're getting the three and a half with the hook,

1168
00:58:02,720 --> 00:58:04,560
Speaker 2: I get it. Maybe I won't be betting this one,

1169
00:58:04,560 --> 00:58:06,760
Speaker 2: but I we'll support your bet in this Jaguar.

1170
00:58:06,560 --> 00:58:08,920
Speaker 1: Side, then we're probably gonna have to put it in

1171
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:15,200
Speaker 1: because I'm nutting up. No one challenges my ability to

1172
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:17,320
Speaker 1: nut up. You gotta Simon.

1173
00:58:18,680 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 2: So if you're right, your genius. If you're wrong, you're

1174
00:58:20,760 --> 00:58:21,520
Speaker 2: a fucking idiot.

1175
00:58:22,560 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 1: Isn't that everything?

1176
00:58:23,320 --> 00:58:23,560
Speaker 2: Though?

1177
00:58:24,360 --> 00:58:28,640
Speaker 1: That's how I live my life. So right now we

1178
00:58:28,680 --> 00:58:30,360
Speaker 1: know we're going to put the Rams in. It's Thursday,

1179
00:58:30,480 --> 00:58:32,720
Speaker 1: just so people know we're putting the Rams in. Probably

1180
00:58:32,720 --> 00:58:34,800
Speaker 1: going to put the Texans in because in our contest

1181
00:58:34,800 --> 00:58:36,560
Speaker 1: the line is at three and a half. We understand

1182
00:58:36,560 --> 00:58:40,360
Speaker 1: you're not going to get that. We gave incredible discourse

1183
00:58:40,440 --> 00:58:44,040
Speaker 1: on that game. Sunday, we're going to talk about the Saints.

1184
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:45,680
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about the Jets. We're going to talk

1185
00:58:45,680 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 1: about Denver Commanders, and I mean the Jags are going

1186
00:58:48,640 --> 00:58:50,760
Speaker 1: to be in. So I'm not sure who we're going

1187
00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:52,600
Speaker 1: to get out. We'll have to we'll have to figure

1188
00:58:52,600 --> 00:58:57,680
Speaker 1: that out on Sunday. Simon, give me your biggest bets.

1189
00:58:58,520 --> 00:59:02,080
Speaker 2: All the work, all the talk, all the handicapping is done.

1190
00:59:02,280 --> 00:59:05,720
Speaker 2: It's time for histories. It's not gonna help people much

1191
00:59:05,720 --> 00:59:08,040
Speaker 2: because it was I mean, the Rams obviously Houston are

1192
00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:11,040
Speaker 2: part of it. So we'll throw those two out, I

1193
00:59:11,080 --> 00:59:13,560
Speaker 2: would say the other ones. I'm like heavily betting into

1194
00:59:13,600 --> 00:59:16,480
Speaker 2: rate now Commanders. I mean, it's so gross, but it's

1195
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:21,360
Speaker 2: true Saints, and you know, I'm probably gonna have more

1196
00:59:21,440 --> 00:59:23,000
Speaker 2: on it. Like again, it was the four and a half.

1197
00:59:23,080 --> 00:59:24,840
Speaker 2: I did bet the Denver, but I've been patient on

1198
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:27,120
Speaker 2: that one. If they get back to four and a half,

1199
00:59:27,160 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 2: where it gets back to four, they'll probably another one

1200
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:32,520
Speaker 2: of my bigger bets. So yeah, for right now, definitely Commanders.

1201
00:59:33,680 --> 00:59:35,520
Speaker 2: I've really taken a strong position on that one, and

1202
00:59:35,560 --> 00:59:38,760
Speaker 2: I can't believe it. The Saints. I just they have

1203
00:59:38,840 --> 00:59:41,360
Speaker 2: to if this has to be the one winner, you know,

1204
00:59:41,360 --> 00:59:42,800
Speaker 2: if they get two wins this year, this has to

1205
00:59:42,800 --> 00:59:45,480
Speaker 2: be the one that they get. I just can't get

1206
00:59:45,480 --> 00:59:47,439
Speaker 2: over this spot against a rookie on the road here

1207
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:50,880
Speaker 2: once again, Spencer Rattler, not as bad as we perceive.

1208
00:59:51,600 --> 00:59:53,880
Speaker 1: And you're betting into it even with them as favorites.

1209
00:59:54,600 --> 00:59:56,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, now, I've been even in them as favor been

1210
00:59:56,480 --> 00:59:58,560
Speaker 2: betting it. Like to me, it's the two that's been

1211
00:59:58,800 --> 01:00:00,600
Speaker 2: I've been staying away from. Like there's a couple of

1212
01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 2: books I've gotten to the Saints at two. I'm not

1213
01:00:03,200 --> 01:00:04,840
Speaker 2: I have zero twos, but I do have a ton

1214
01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:06,160
Speaker 2: of one and a half on the Saints team.

1215
01:00:06,400 --> 01:00:11,040
Speaker 1: Got it all right? Money line round robin, underdog parlay.

1216
01:00:12,960 --> 01:00:17,200
Speaker 1: My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks my dog?

1217
01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:26,280
Speaker 1: I would say. Panthers, Broncos, Jets, Broncos. Well, I'm six lifetime, Okay,

1218
01:00:26,280 --> 01:00:30,320
Speaker 1: how about I'm just throwing out some names you correct.

1219
01:00:30,040 --> 01:00:31,560
Speaker 2: How they're gonna win, just because I have doubt on

1220
01:00:31,600 --> 01:00:32,400
Speaker 2: it exactly.

1221
01:00:33,000 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 1: Panthers, Broncos, Jets commanders, who else do we want to

1222
01:00:36,600 --> 01:00:38,920
Speaker 1: put in there, Jags.

1223
01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:43,560
Speaker 2: Oh my god, that's fair.

1224
01:00:43,840 --> 01:00:45,800
Speaker 1: Let's go all in.

1225
01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:49,440
Speaker 2: I'm off that one I would do. I mean, I

1226
01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:52,160
Speaker 2: have to do it. We gotta go what is it?

1227
01:00:52,280 --> 01:00:56,160
Speaker 2: Plus one point eighty? Here the Cleveland Browns. Okay, gotta

1228
01:00:56,240 --> 01:00:59,320
Speaker 2: throw that in there. I mean, it's a gross game,

1229
01:00:59,320 --> 01:01:01,880
Speaker 2: but it's like that, such a coin flip game. I

1230
01:01:01,920 --> 01:01:05,840
Speaker 2: obviously know the Vikings are gonna be, you know, the

1231
01:01:05,920 --> 01:01:08,200
Speaker 2: professional side and the public. Like I said, they're all

1232
01:01:08,200 --> 01:01:11,920
Speaker 2: over the Browns. But we've seen historically the chalky, chalky

1233
01:01:11,920 --> 01:01:14,240
Speaker 2: public side has done well international. So I'll just get

1234
01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:15,560
Speaker 2: them in. And I don't know if we got the

1235
01:01:15,640 --> 01:01:17,040
Speaker 2: Jets in there. The Jets are up.

1236
01:01:17,120 --> 01:01:19,480
Speaker 1: We got the Jets. Here's the here's the teams we

1237
01:01:19,560 --> 01:01:22,040
Speaker 1: have now. I took the Broncos out. So our money

1238
01:01:22,040 --> 01:01:31,320
Speaker 1: line round rob round robin, Underdog Parlay, Panthers, Jets, Commanders, Jags, Browns.

1239
01:01:31,720 --> 01:01:44,040
Speaker 1: Let's go round robin, money line favorite Parlay, Cardinals, Cardinals, Colts, Bills.

1240
01:01:45,360 --> 01:01:47,640
Speaker 2: Shoot the bills are bills are Yeah, we can throw

1241
01:01:47,640 --> 01:01:49,400
Speaker 2: them in. They're minus two forty five. If you want

1242
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:52,240
Speaker 2: to do the Bills minus two and a half. People

1243
01:01:52,280 --> 01:01:54,400
Speaker 2: in your round Robin that's that's probably better value. I just,

1244
01:01:55,160 --> 01:01:57,160
Speaker 2: I honestly think they're gonna roll the Patriots there, But

1245
01:01:57,320 --> 01:02:01,000
Speaker 2: just to be safe, I know, Mac or I shouldn't

1246
01:02:01,000 --> 01:02:03,480
Speaker 2: say that. Drake May he's two and zer against the

1247
01:02:03,480 --> 01:02:05,760
Speaker 2: spreading his career against the Bills, so he's kept a

1248
01:02:05,840 --> 01:02:08,560
Speaker 2: close new Spots. But like me and Chad both agree

1249
01:02:08,640 --> 01:02:11,200
Speaker 2: this is we didn't talk a much about it. I

1250
01:02:11,240 --> 01:02:14,960
Speaker 2: love that Patriots game so much because if the Patriots

1251
01:02:15,000 --> 01:02:17,800
Speaker 2: win it, this could be the starter of something for

1252
01:02:17,840 --> 01:02:20,560
Speaker 2: them as a fan where it's like you beat the

1253
01:02:20,560 --> 01:02:23,640
Speaker 2: big bad wolf, like that is this is your dream

1254
01:02:23,680 --> 01:02:26,760
Speaker 2: snare Drake May, who people are being like, this guy's

1255
01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:28,840
Speaker 2: the greatest quarterback ever. You've seen his dats through three

1256
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:31,840
Speaker 2: four weeks. All that is just noise and bullshit. This

1257
01:02:31,960 --> 01:02:35,800
Speaker 2: is truly defining career season type of game for Drake

1258
01:02:35,880 --> 01:02:39,120
Speaker 2: May where he steals this game. Oh my god, even

1259
01:02:39,120 --> 01:02:40,920
Speaker 2: pundits like me are gonna have to give them a

1260
01:02:40,960 --> 01:02:43,440
Speaker 2: ton of credit. But this should be a Josh Allen

1261
01:02:43,480 --> 01:02:45,880
Speaker 2: beats the shit, yes out of this Patriots team. So

1262
01:02:45,920 --> 01:02:47,600
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I like I like them throwing them

1263
01:02:47,600 --> 01:02:48,120
Speaker 2: in there.

1264
01:02:47,920 --> 01:02:52,800
Speaker 1: And Cardinals, Bill's Lions Colts and I put in the Seahawks.

1265
01:02:53,320 --> 01:02:54,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, I'll do that.

1266
01:02:55,000 --> 01:03:10,000
Speaker 1: Money line round Robin Cardinals, Bill's Lions, Seahawks survivor Arizona Cardinals.

1267
01:03:10,200 --> 01:03:12,640
Speaker 2: Yep, don't think about it. What daring it. I'm probably

1268
01:03:12,640 --> 01:03:15,400
Speaker 2: gonna be on Arizona's number two. It's I know it's

1269
01:03:15,400 --> 01:03:17,320
Speaker 2: a minus seven and a half, but yeah, I'm uh.

1270
01:03:18,040 --> 01:03:19,800
Speaker 2: I just the more I watch this Tennessee team, they

1271
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:21,200
Speaker 2: look totally checked out.

1272
01:03:21,400 --> 01:03:24,320
Speaker 1: All right, sharp versus square? You won last week? You

1273
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:28,000
Speaker 1: had the Rams, I had the Niners. This so you

1274
01:03:28,040 --> 01:03:30,240
Speaker 1: get to go first? Who are you gonna take?

1275
01:03:31,160 --> 01:03:33,720
Speaker 2: Just going all in on the on the Saints. I'm

1276
01:03:33,720 --> 01:03:37,120
Speaker 2: gonna go to the Saints. Wow, I know I hate it,

1277
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:38,960
Speaker 2: but it's I can't do Commanders again. I just gave

1278
01:03:39,000 --> 01:03:39,240
Speaker 2: him out.

1279
01:03:39,240 --> 01:03:41,760
Speaker 1: Simon says, so right, I was gonna say, Simon.

1280
01:03:41,840 --> 01:03:43,320
Speaker 2: Season a week has kind of sent me back a

1281
01:03:43,320 --> 01:03:45,320
Speaker 2: little bit because I can use my second favorite bet

1282
01:03:45,320 --> 01:03:47,240
Speaker 2: for this. But I'll go my third favorite bet. Give me,

1283
01:03:47,480 --> 01:03:48,200
Speaker 2: give me the Saints.

1284
01:03:49,200 --> 01:03:52,400
Speaker 1: Interesting, I will go with if we're gonna go bad.

1285
01:03:52,840 --> 01:03:54,920
Speaker 1: If you're gonna go with the Saints, I'm gonna go

1286
01:03:54,960 --> 01:03:55,800
Speaker 1: with the Jets.

1287
01:03:56,640 --> 01:03:57,840
Speaker 2: There you go, so.

1288
01:03:57,800 --> 01:04:01,200
Speaker 1: There we go Sharp versus Square this week and Saints.

1289
01:04:01,200 --> 01:04:03,200
Speaker 1: I thought we were going to do Chiefs versus Jags,

1290
01:04:03,200 --> 01:04:04,680
Speaker 1: but it feels like you've walked away from that a

1291
01:04:04,720 --> 01:04:05,120
Speaker 1: little bit.

1292
01:04:06,160 --> 01:04:07,640
Speaker 2: And we can. But I don't want to have the

1293
01:04:07,720 --> 01:04:10,439
Speaker 2: Jugs in our contest and then have to sure bet

1294
01:04:10,560 --> 01:04:12,240
Speaker 2: and now I'm like rooting against it. I'm not sure.

1295
01:04:12,520 --> 01:04:14,000
Speaker 2: That's that's very chat. That's not me.

1296
01:04:14,640 --> 01:04:15,640
Speaker 1: I don't do that at all.

1297
01:04:15,760 --> 01:04:16,760
Speaker 2: You do it all the time.

1298
01:04:17,120 --> 01:04:19,880
Speaker 1: I hate that feeling. I hate all of the feelings.

1299
01:04:20,240 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 1: You know this, Every feeling makes me uncomfortable. Other than

1300
01:04:25,280 --> 01:04:29,800
Speaker 1: unadulterated joy and optimism that ignores all bad news and

1301
01:04:29,920 --> 01:04:34,080
Speaker 1: anything that is uncomfortable. I don't want any other feelings

1302
01:04:34,520 --> 01:04:35,880
Speaker 1: in life or in betting.

1303
01:04:37,040 --> 01:04:40,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, got one more step before we go. I just

1304
01:04:40,560 --> 01:04:43,880
Speaker 2: I love someone. Just text me this stat forty nine

1305
01:04:43,960 --> 01:04:48,040
Speaker 2: ers pressure rate last week without Nick Bosa, thirty second

1306
01:04:48,120 --> 01:04:50,080
Speaker 2: in the league. It's not good, not good.

1307
01:04:50,480 --> 01:04:54,160
Speaker 1: No bueno. All right. This has been Sharper Square, part

1308
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:56,360
Speaker 1: of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on

1309
01:04:56,400 --> 01:05:00,320
Speaker 1: Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. As you eavesdrop an

1310
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:04,120
Speaker 1: intimate conversation between me and Simon in which we will panic,

1311
01:05:04,520 --> 01:05:09,120
Speaker 1: make utterly human decisions and regret the rest of the day.

1312
01:05:09,920 --> 01:05:13,400
Speaker 1: Then will we will be back on Sharper Square YouTube

1313
01:05:13,400 --> 01:05:16,440
Speaker 1: Sunday night, seven point thirty ish as soon as the

1314
01:05:16,560 --> 01:05:22,680
Speaker 1: late afternoon games end. To recap all that misery, watch

1315
01:05:22,760 --> 01:05:24,919
Speaker 1: or listen on YouTube a Sharper Square like this video.

1316
01:05:24,960 --> 01:05:27,600
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the channel. Also down from Spotify, Apple Pods,

1317
01:05:27,600 --> 01:05:30,680
Speaker 1: wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe. Webus five

1318
01:05:30,680 --> 01:05:33,120
Speaker 1: stars say whatever you want. Feedback is the gift. Until

1319
01:05:33,160 --> 01:05:34,880
Speaker 1: next time, Love you,