1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:04,240 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. 2 00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 2: Better than Most, Better than Most, Better than Most. 3 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:24,560 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. This is our Best 4 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 3: Bets episode for the twenty twenty five PGA Championship team 5 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 3: off this week at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. 6 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 3: I'm your host, Mike Calabres, and today I'm joined by 7 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 3: a pair of brilliant minds in the golf betting space. 8 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:38,879 Speaker 3: First up, returning to the show at two time Fantasy 9 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 3: Sports Writer Association Golf Writer of the Year, a senior 10 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 3: PGA analyst at rhoda bowler, and co host of the 11 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:47,599 Speaker 3: new draftcast, King of the Draft. You can find him 12 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 3: online at teof Sports. Welcome back to the show, Spencer Aggyar. 13 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me, Michael, I look forward to doing 14 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 2: this today. 15 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 3: Now we're going to consult your model, hopefully define you know, 16 00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 3: the biggest edges that you're seeing this week at Quail. 17 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 3: But before we do, let's also intro my colleague from 18 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 3: roto Grinders, a golf expert and one of the most 19 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:08,759 Speaker 3: talented data modelers in the game. You can follow him 20 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:12,119 Speaker 3: over on x at k murr DFS. It's Kyle Murray. 21 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 3: How you doing buddy, Mike. 22 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 1: You're trying to make me blush. You would see it 23 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 1: more how in so sunburn, But I do appreciate the 24 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 1: kind words. Looking forward to talking a fun major championship event, 25 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 1: he decided to talk some golf with you guys. 26 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 3: Now before we tee off here, guys, there's plenty of 27 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:28,319 Speaker 3: people that listen to the show that may be casual 28 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:30,120 Speaker 3: golf betters. So if you can do a bit of 29 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 3: table setting in terms of what makes the PGA Championship 30 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:35,960 Speaker 3: so special, both from just a viewing perspective but also 31 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 3: from a bet modeling perspective. Let's start with you Spencer. 32 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:43,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a very interesting major because I can't 33 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:46,279 Speaker 2: recall a time that we have seen aboard this top heavy. 34 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 2: We always have one or two choices that are near 35 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 2: the top in that sub twelve to one sort of range. 36 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 2: But if you look at the market and where the 37 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 2: market has been moving, it's been extremely aggressive when it 38 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 2: comes to Scottie Scheffler, Rory McElroy and Bright Deshambo. If 39 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 2: you believe the winner comes from outside of that group, 40 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 2: and we're talking about value in a betting tournament, I 41 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 2: could probably write you a novel. Michael about all the 42 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 2: reasons why this is a great betting tournament. With that, 43 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 2: you get pricing that should be deemed too aggressive at 44 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 2: the top. Value is gonna get enhanced further down the board. 45 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 2: There's also this natural answer that most slates will rarely 46 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 2: be anywhere near proper. When you have two names that 47 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 2: are going to be five to one in Scotty and Rory, 48 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 2: and then the next in Bryson, that's become this sub 49 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 2: ten to one choice. As everybody knows who bets all 50 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 2: the time, books always naturally skew in favor of the 51 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 2: favorites because that's more of where the square money ends 52 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:42,079 Speaker 2: up landing. If enhancement happens elsewhere, that's typically a very 53 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:45,360 Speaker 2: good thing. Now, all of that sounds good on paper, 54 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 2: but I don't know that it's that cut and dry 55 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:50,799 Speaker 2: this week. Like I stand by the fact that there 56 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 2: has to be reduced prices at the top because we 57 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 2: do have too much whole percentage that's happening there. But 58 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 2: the way that this board laid out from, and I'm 59 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 2: interested to see where Kyle lands on this as we 60 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 2: move forward, this was an extremely top heavy production output 61 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 2: inside of my model when we look at quell hollow, 62 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 2: and I'll keep this very short. When we look when 63 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 2: it played here in twenty seventeen for the PGA Championship, 64 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 2: you got this extremely fiery, fast Bermuda putting surface. It's 65 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:23,679 Speaker 2: still going to have some speed to it. I think 66 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 2: one of the narratives in the space that's been a 67 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 2: little bit overblown in my opinion, is and we'll talk 68 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:30,919 Speaker 2: about it as this show moves on. It is wet 69 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 2: and it's rainy there there is a subair system. That's 70 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 2: one of the things that most people have not been 71 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 2: talking about. But I think the bigger issue of what 72 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 2: comes into play when I looked at this tournament is 73 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 2: you have overseating on the grass this go around compared 74 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 2: to that last major. So when you throw that into 75 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 2: the mix, historical data tells me inside of my model. 76 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 2: Whether you look at the Wells Fargo Championship, which is 77 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 2: what hosts Kulhalla hosts that tournament every single year, or 78 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 2: you look at these majors President's Cup, all of these 79 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 2: big events that have been played there, there's usually about 80 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 2: a forty five percent strokes gained output when you have 81 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 2: a flat stick in hand. 82 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: If you have this. 83 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:12,119 Speaker 2: Overseated Bermuda that's going to give you this much purer surface. 84 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 2: I think you might be able to ramp that up 85 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:16,840 Speaker 2: a little bit. And then the other problem that comes 86 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 2: into play that's even more of that is we can 87 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 2: talk about the subair system and how that's going to 88 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 2: help a little bit with the wet conditions, but you're 89 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 2: still not going to be able to avoid Friday and 90 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 2: Saturday where there's rain in the forecast. So you know, 91 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 2: carry distance is always the number one answer for me 92 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 2: at quill Hollow, So club head, speed, carry distance, those 93 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 2: answers just so heavily pushed in the favor of the 94 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 2: three favorites of this tournament, and it was really hard 95 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:46,920 Speaker 2: for me from a win equity standpoint for my model. 96 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 2: And we can discuss what fear pricing is for each 97 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 2: one of them, but I did have each one of 98 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 2: them as sub ten to one being proper. So you know, 99 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 2: that's kind of my long winded two cent take to this. 100 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 2: But it's it's an interesting betting board because it's either 101 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 2: do you trust the top or do you want to 102 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 2: take value elsewhere? 103 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 4: Question? 104 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 3: To get you involved here, Kyle, this is obviously the 105 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,480 Speaker 3: second major of the year, the first one being the Masters. 106 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 3: It's the same course every single year. There's small modifications, 107 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 3: you know, from year to year, but for the most part, 108 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 3: you know exactly what you're getting. You know which players 109 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 3: game kind of molds properly to the course gives them 110 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,679 Speaker 3: a leg up, whereas the PGA, obviously it's a different 111 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 3: course every single year. So in terms of your modeling, 112 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:32,359 Speaker 3: do you start there in terms of course analysis or 113 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:36,039 Speaker 3: do you look at historical performance or momentum by the 114 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:37,559 Speaker 3: particular golfers in this field. 115 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think this year, particularly for the PGA Championship, 116 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 1: it's a little bit of unique spin on things, just 117 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 1: because we have a course that has hosted the PGA 118 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 1: Championship before in twenty seventeen, and then obviously it hosts 119 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:50,280 Speaker 1: the Wells Fargo every single year. I do think the 120 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 1: course is obviously going to play a little bit different. 121 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 1: They're going to set it up differently. As Spenser mentioned, 122 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 1: they add a little bit length to it as well. 123 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 1: I think the wet conditions also play a factor in 124 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 1: things here, but it doesn't least provide us a little 125 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 1: bit more of a head start in terms of, you know, 126 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 1: the course analysis compared to you know, going to a 127 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 1: place with you know, a fresh start, or you know, 128 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:10,960 Speaker 1: very little data and sometimes even no data for some 129 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 1: of these majors. So I think that is a unique 130 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 1: spin on this particular event. You know, when looking at 131 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:19,559 Speaker 1: some of the data from Quail Hollow at Wells Fargo 132 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,839 Speaker 1: compared to that twenty seventeen event, obviously a very small sample, 133 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,719 Speaker 1: only one tournament, but obviously they were able to make 134 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,159 Speaker 1: the misfairway penalty a little bit, a little bit higher, 135 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 1: a little bit gater, obviously growing out the rough and whatnot, 136 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: and obviously set up things throughout the course. But I 137 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: do think at least having a little bit of data 138 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 1: and a little bit of knowledge as to how guys 139 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:38,840 Speaker 1: play this course and how well they play it at 140 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 1: least gives us a little bit of a head start 141 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: there and for this particular event. I love the point 142 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:45,280 Speaker 1: that Spencer made about the cluster up at the top 143 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 1: with these three top prices and Rory, Scotty and Bryson. 144 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:51,480 Speaker 1: I do think he made a great point right off 145 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:53,479 Speaker 1: the rip saying that if you believe that you can 146 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 1: find a winner outside of those three, it opens up 147 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 1: tremendous value because obviously a lot of this money is 148 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 1: gravitating to those top three guys, and rightfully so, right 149 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 1: all these guys are playing extremely well. They're clearly, you know, 150 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 1: amongst the top golfers that we've seen over the last 151 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 1: decade or so, and their form is all, you know, 152 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 1: pretty impenetrable when you look at their current resume coming 153 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: into this event. However, whenever you have a case like this, 154 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,239 Speaker 1: and this has been the case outside of major events 155 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: as well, you know, you look at you know, odd 156 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 1: ball tournaments like you know, the Mexico Open, where you 157 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 1: have one golfer who is dominating such a hold on 158 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: the market and such a low number in the betting markets, 159 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: it just opens up value throughout the rest of the field. 160 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 4: So I do think that. 161 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 1: Brings a very interesting dynamic to me personally, the way 162 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 1: my model sees it is. Obviously it does like these 163 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: top three guys, as you know, the clear cut favorites 164 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 1: for the winner to come from this group. But for me, 165 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 1: I'm gonna be looking for some value, you know, a 166 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 1: little bit outside, you know, longer, for longer numbers, you know, 167 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 1: in the market here for some players in that top 168 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 1: ten or so. 169 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 3: You both mentioned the three golfer cluster at the top. 170 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 3: Let's expand that a bit to let's call it the 171 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 3: top ten of the world rankings. Right now, in terms 172 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 3: of golfers you like to potentially win this tournament, you 173 00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 3: have Rory fresh off his Grand Slam career Grand Slam, 174 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 3: I should say, does he play better with that monkey 175 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 3: off his back or is that pressure bringing out the 176 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 3: best in him? That's a question we're going to find 177 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 3: out this week. And then you have Scotti Scheffer, currently 178 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 3: the number one golfer in the world, but he's never 179 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 3: played Quayle Hollow on his own ball. Although he did 180 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 3: play in the President's Cup year in twenty twenty two, 181 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 3: he didn't play all that well. He went three to one, 182 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 3: gaining just a half point for the US team in 183 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 3: their victory over the international squad. So, Spencer, I'll kick 184 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:28,239 Speaker 3: it to you first. In terms of those top golfers, 185 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 3: as I said, let's expand that three player pod to 186 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 3: the top ten golfers in the world, anyone there from 187 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:36,079 Speaker 3: a value perspective that you expect to win this tournament. 188 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 2: When we saw this board open up, this has kind 189 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 2: of been my blueprint to this is where you have 190 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 2: Scotty and Rory at we'll call it five to one, 191 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 2: just to give a very basic number here. Bryson was 192 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:52,719 Speaker 2: the one name that had drifted out a little bit. 193 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:54,680 Speaker 2: He was sixteen to one last week. He dropped the 194 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 2: fourteen to one. He opened up Monday at eleven to one. 195 00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 2: I thought any of those totals were extremely better. I 196 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:03,439 Speaker 2: had Rory and Scotty Moore in that six and a 197 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 2: half seven and a half to one sort of range. 198 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 2: I had Bryson at eight to one. So it's a 199 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 2: very even split for the most part between those three 200 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,320 Speaker 2: big names. And there was one name that drifted a 201 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:15,319 Speaker 2: little bit further than the rest of them. And now 202 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 2: the market has corrected itself. There's square and sharp money 203 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:20,959 Speaker 2: probably alike. That bet Bryson when this last week and 204 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 2: it opened up this week. One name I do want 205 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 2: to throw out outside of Bryson, though that I realize 206 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 2: that if you look at what he's done this year, 207 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 2: it's been a slow start, sat out a handful of 208 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 2: months due to injury. We're still talking about the defending 209 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 2: champion though, at Xander Shoftley, and that number has been 210 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:40,679 Speaker 2: as high at as twenty five to one at some books. 211 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 2: Like I said, very slow start to the season, but 212 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 2: and we haven't seen him post to top five finish 213 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 2: in seven tournaments, but a lot of the metrics that 214 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 2: I care about for this venue are starting to trend 215 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 2: in that direction for him. Of what we were seeing 216 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 2: last year, four top eighteen finishes in a row, a 217 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 2: putter last week that finally showed some life again, game 218 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:03,920 Speaker 2: plus three point six at the Truest Championship. That's the 219 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 2: highest total output that we've seen from him since August. 220 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:09,559 Speaker 2: So if you look at his history at Kwalhalla, back 221 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 2: to back second place finishes, and then you look at 222 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 2: this profile from him, that shows him inside my model 223 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 2: to be third place or third place great for me. 224 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:21,200 Speaker 2: With proximity outside of two hundred yards, that's a bucket 225 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 2: and a range there that generates almost forty one percent 226 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 2: of second shots. I think you do have a really 227 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 2: elite skill set from him, and this is a name 228 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 2: to where he is the forgotten star of this group. 229 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 2: If you don't have this slow start in injury at 230 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 2: the beginning of the year, you're probably looking at this 231 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 2: number right into like just above that single digit ranging, 232 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 2: you probably would have four superstar golfers in the minds 233 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 2: of the public. But I really like that Xander price 234 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:47,080 Speaker 2: s at twenty five to one. 235 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 3: Kyle, let's start with Rory and Scotty both going off 236 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 3: at plus four fifty. Do you have any interest in 237 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 3: playing them at that price point? Maybe perhaps looking at 238 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 3: them to be a first round leader or some kind 239 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:01,079 Speaker 3: of other exotic or head to head. Any interest in 240 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 3: Rory or Scotty here? 241 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it's hard to say that I have 242 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 4: no interest in them. 243 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: I guess the one thing that I've been doing over 244 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 1: the past couple of years is someone who does play 245 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:10,560 Speaker 1: a lot of golf dfs as well, is I'll try 246 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 1: to get my money in on those guys in the 247 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 1: DFS streets and you know, look. 248 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 4: For more value in the betting markets. 249 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 1: I know that's not super uh, you know, great advice 250 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:22,840 Speaker 1: for a you know, primarily betting show, but that's personally 251 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 1: how I do it. And I typically have a rule 252 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,240 Speaker 1: where I don't, you know, very often bet you know, 253 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 1: guys that are lower than ten to one in golf terms. 254 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 1: I just think that, you know, my model doesn't typically 255 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 1: project guys to be in those kinds of ranges, and 256 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: I and that leads to me finding more value throughout 257 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 1: the you know, at the back end or of the 258 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 1: you know that top tier or even mid range. But 259 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 1: obviously both of these guys are incredible. I have no 260 00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 1: problem with anybody wanting to bet these guys and you know, 261 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 1: thinking that they are the favorites to win. I do 262 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 1: think that I have no problem looping in Bryce and 263 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 1: right there with the lights of Rory and Scotty because 264 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 1: I do think that you know, distance and particularly ball 265 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,320 Speaker 1: striking is going to be very very very important here, 266 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 1: especially with the wet conditions. I think that's actually going 267 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:05,839 Speaker 1: to help with Gualy Bryson. You know, Spencer mentioned the 268 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 1: carry numbers there, but I also think it's going to 269 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:10,439 Speaker 1: help with his approach play in terms of just being 270 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:12,719 Speaker 1: able to hold greens easier, and I think that's going 271 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:14,200 Speaker 1: to go a long way in terms of, you know, 272 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 1: giving him more scoring chances. So I have no problem 273 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:19,080 Speaker 1: in you know, looping in Bryson with those top two. 274 00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 1: If I had to rank those top three, I would 275 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 1: probably be ranking them Rory, Scotty and then Bryson. But 276 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 1: I think all of these guys are you know, more 277 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,920 Speaker 1: than deserving of those numbers, just probably not going to 278 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 1: be numbers I'm chasing here. I think if you were 279 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 1: able to get a Bryson number early on, like Spencer 280 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 1: mentioned that that fourteen or even sixteen to one, I 281 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 1: think those are incredible values. But for me, I'm probably 282 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 1: not going to be chasing here. You know, at nine 283 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: to one, I think the currently nine and a half 284 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 1: to one for Bryson or the five to one for 285 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: Rory and Scotty. 286 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 3: Let me pick your brain on some mid tier and 287 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 3: long shot golfers that you'd like to overperform in this field. 288 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:56,559 Speaker 3: Let's start with Ludvig Oberg. He's tremendous off the tea. 289 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 3: Would that be enough to entice you at twenty five 290 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 3: to one? And let me mention one other golfer as well, 291 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 3: perhaps a step Straka who's lethal inside of one hundred 292 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 3: yards and second in strokes gained when approaching the green. 293 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 3: He's going off at a tantalizing seventy one. Either of 294 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 3: those Oberg or Straka, are they on your card in 295 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 3: any way, shape or form. 296 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:17,200 Speaker 1: I did take a good hard look at both these guys. 297 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 1: Obviously Straca coming off the wind, and then Oberg always 298 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 1: worth a look here, especially in these thoughts where distance 299 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 1: is you know, very important. Obviously, he ranks in the 300 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 1: top ten in terms of driving distance. 301 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 4: He's in the top. 302 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: Twenty four in terms of your better numbers, So I 303 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 1: think he has the ability to go out here and 304 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:38,440 Speaker 1: compete in an event like this. I just like i'd 305 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: like guys in these two price tires a little bit 306 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 1: more so for Blude Big, like you mentioned twenty five 307 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 1: to one, I have a Xander ticket out there. I 308 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 1: prefer him at He's at twenty two to one right 309 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 1: now per FanDuel over on Fando all the things that 310 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 1: Spencer mentioned. 311 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:52,960 Speaker 4: I kind of second there for Xander. 312 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:54,600 Speaker 1: And you know, a lot of people talk about this 313 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 1: being Rory's course he's dominated in years past, but over 314 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,080 Speaker 1: the last five years is actually Xander who has the 315 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:03,120 Speaker 1: best strokes gained numbers here at Quail Hollow in that 316 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 1: five year time frame, ranking first in total strokes gain, 317 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 1: first and stroke skin T degree and fifth off the t, 318 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: second in approach in ball striking. 319 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:12,319 Speaker 4: So Xander looks great here. 320 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:15,079 Speaker 1: I do think he's trending back from that injury as well, 321 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 1: with that top ten finished at the Masters last month, 322 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 1: So I like him in that price range over Ludwig 323 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: and then for se Straca you mentioned seventy to one. 324 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: I like Corey Connor's at that seventy to one number. 325 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 1: So again no problem with Straca, he does look awfully 326 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 1: strong as well. But just I like this number here 327 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 1: for Connors is that's seventy to one over on fandle 328 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 1: right now, but other books are offering it as low 329 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 1: as fifty to one, So I do think there's some 330 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 1: value on that seventy to one number. You always got 331 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 1: a wonder, you know, does Corey Connors have the upside 332 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 1: to go out there and finish a tournament, a big 333 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 1: tournament like this, I suppose, But I do think that's 334 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 1: seventy to one value is going to offer you a 335 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 1: nice number there, And in my opinion, when looking at 336 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 1: his numbers, I have no doubt that he'llow at least 337 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: be in the mix, you know, looking at his stroke 338 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 1: skin numbers over the last six months, thirteenth in total 339 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 1: strokes gain ninth and ball striking fourteenth and off the 340 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 1: tee and eleven strokes gain t degree. So I love 341 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 1: the numbers here for Corey Connors. Again, inequity is a 342 00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: little bit of a tough number. So also like betting 343 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 1: that top ten or top twenty number for Connors, but 344 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 1: at seventy one, definitely think there's some value there in 345 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 1: the mid range for Corey Connors. 346 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 3: You can absolutely do huge damage in the mid tier 347 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 3: in long range space, whether it's to win outrights, top tens, 348 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 3: you know, head to heads. Who are you targeting in 349 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 3: this price range, Spencer, I. 350 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 2: Really like the call from Corey Connors from Kyle there. 351 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 2: I think he's one of the prime examples of what 352 00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 2: we were talking about early in this show of a 353 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 2: golfer where the top of the board gets you know, 354 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 2: they're all sub ten to one, and then you're gonna 355 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,480 Speaker 2: get drift elsewhere. Connors for me, inside of my model 356 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 2: top five at both strokes gain total long long courses 357 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 2: and strokes gain total at heart scoring courses. Also a 358 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 2: top ten projected player for me in wait to proximity 359 00:15:57,680 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 2: for this course. So I think there's a lot to 360 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 2: like with him. The name I'm gonna throw out on 361 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 2: this show, and this is as boom or busts as 362 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 2: you're gonna get. If you look at the recent form 363 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 2: with this, it's bottom of the barrel. If if you 364 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 2: do bet them outright, this is one of those situations 365 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 2: you could wake up on Thursday, look at the bottom 366 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 2: of the board and seat at the outright ticket stead 367 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 2: Like I want to warn everybody about that. But when 368 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 2: I make outright bets, I'm always looking for win equity 369 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 2: over the safety return on it. I like minwou Lee 370 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 2: at one hundred to one. You know, I talked a 371 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 2: little bit about the recent poor form that he's had. 372 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 2: He won in Houston. That was a bet that I 373 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:35,320 Speaker 2: had him at. One of the reasons why I took 374 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 2: him there was because of the same carry distance answer 375 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 2: and the putting acumen that he brings into these events. 376 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 2: So it's gonna take the right outcome for him to 377 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 2: be able to find success. But when we were trying 378 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 2: to find or I was trying to find golfers inside 379 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 2: of my model that possessed that high ceiling sort of 380 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 2: an output in that triple digit zone. There, Min Wu 381 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 2: checked a lot of boxes. It's just you're gonna need 382 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 2: the perfect outcome from him to be able to beat 383 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 2: the high end guys. So for me, this is one 384 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 2: of those things that if I'm betting him, I'm doing 385 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:10,880 Speaker 2: it as to win top five, top ten, and I'm 386 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 2: avoiding any of the safer markets, like I have no 387 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:14,879 Speaker 2: interest in him as a matchup. I have no interest 388 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 2: with him to make a cut. It is the boom 389 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:18,719 Speaker 2: or bust outlook that I'm looking for him. 390 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 4: There. 391 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 3: Do you ever watch sports and find yourself wishing that 392 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 3: there was a way to get into the game, While 393 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:26,639 Speaker 3: with Underdog, there's finally a way to make picks on 394 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 3: sports without leaving the house. The game is in your 395 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 3: hands to play. Choose whether a player will go higher 396 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 3: or lower on a specific stat like touchdowns, strikeouts, points scored, 397 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 3: and more. They've got all your favorite leagues, teams and 398 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,159 Speaker 3: stars to choose from. You can create entries with all 399 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 3: baseball picks or mix and match across sports. You can 400 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:44,959 Speaker 3: play it with as little as one dollar, and if 401 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:46,280 Speaker 3: you get everything right, you can win up to a 402 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 3: thousand times your money, so you can turn that one 403 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:51,560 Speaker 3: dollar into a thousand dollars just with your sports knowledge. 404 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 3: I've been playing an underdog to spice up those afternoon 405 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 3: games in the bigs. Special thanks to Dance by Swans 406 00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 3: Swanson for helping my bankroll with four dingers this month already, 407 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 3: and that's the bade of Underdog. You can ride the 408 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,679 Speaker 3: hot hand in any sport, from the NBA and NHL 409 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 3: playoffs to Major League Baseball. Every day of the week, 410 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 3: Underdog has you covered. Download the Underdog app and sign 411 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,639 Speaker 3: up now using Promo Code Action Network to unlock a 412 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:16,919 Speaker 3: special offer for up to one thousand dollars in bonus 413 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 3: cash when you make your first deposit. Join in on 414 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 3: the fund when you sign up with Promo Code Action Network, 415 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 3: claim your special offer and get up to one thousand 416 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 3: dollars in bonus cash instantly upon your first deposit. Must 417 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:31,120 Speaker 3: be eighteen plus nineteen plus in Alabama, Nebraska, nineteen plus 418 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 3: in Colorado for some games, twenty one plus in Massachusetts 419 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 3: and Arizona, and present in a state where Underdog Fantasy operates. 420 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 3: Term supply concerned with your play, called one eight hundred Gambler, 421 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:44,919 Speaker 3: or visit NCP Gambling dot Org. In Arizona, call one 422 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:49,480 Speaker 3: eight hundred next step or text next step two five three, 423 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:52,000 Speaker 3: three four to two. In New York, call the twenty 424 00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 3: four to seven hopeline at one eight seven seven eight 425 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 3: Hope and why or text hope and why. All Right, guys, 426 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:01,680 Speaker 3: I'm sure there's a few more plays on your card. 427 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 3: So if there's any additional bets you want to add, 428 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,720 Speaker 3: whether it's top ten, top fives players to miss the cut. 429 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 3: I know that you've talked a lot about Xander Schaffley, 430 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 3: how great he's been playing, and the potential value he 431 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:13,679 Speaker 3: has at twenty two to one. He's also seven to 432 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 3: two to miss the cut. Any interesting plays like that 433 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 3: in your card, I'll go to you first, Kyle. 434 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 1: I don't have too many make or miss the cut 435 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:24,639 Speaker 1: plays out there yet, but I do have a couple 436 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,359 Speaker 1: of additional outrights that I'll mention real quick. I also 437 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,679 Speaker 1: bet John Rahm at eighteen to one, and then Jakie 438 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 1: Neeman and Hideki Matsuyama as well. So those are a 439 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:35,120 Speaker 1: couple other outrights that I have, and then some long 440 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,679 Speaker 1: shot guys that I'm looking at in the top twenty market. 441 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 1: Don't mind taking sprinkles in the outright if you wanted 442 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 1: to throw a couple of bucks on it, but a 443 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:44,760 Speaker 1: couple of long shots that I have for top twenties 444 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 1: or top ten. I also like minually for a top 445 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 1: ten at plus six fifty, so I love that call. 446 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 1: Alex Spencer mentioned bay boom or bust, but again I'm 447 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: loving the kind of the archetype of guys who have 448 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 1: tons of distance, but you might struggle typically with the 449 00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 1: iron player, at least competing in an elite way with 450 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: the iron play, because I do think that distance is 451 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 1: going to you know, help even out that that weakness 452 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:07,840 Speaker 1: or that maybe that lack of strength there and then 453 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 1: obviously being able to hold screens a little bit easier, 454 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:11,159 Speaker 1: I think is going to go a long way with 455 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 1: the wet conditions there. So finally, top ten plus six 456 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 1: fifty I like that one. Keith Mitchell at a top twenty. 457 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:19,879 Speaker 1: Another very boomer busk guy. I mean, talk about a 458 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 1: guy who can easily be you know, twelve over by 459 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 1: the by the eighth hole if things go poorly and 460 00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 1: then you wake up thinking he's at the very bottom 461 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:29,880 Speaker 1: of the scoreboard. Another guy just like that, Top twenty 462 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: plus three fifty. Like that number for Mitchell. Again, lots 463 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 1: of distance, lots of variance here with him. But for 464 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,080 Speaker 1: these these long shot guys, I actually like to lean 465 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 1: into that variance a little bit, like Kegan for a 466 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:42,679 Speaker 1: top twenty at plus four hundred, and then finally Davis 467 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,879 Speaker 1: Thompson for a top twenty, also at plus four hundred. 468 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,440 Speaker 1: Again Thompson is one of those guys with the distance 469 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:50,919 Speaker 1: and his strokes. Skin putting does not look good, but 470 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,160 Speaker 1: he is one of those guys who can definitely get 471 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,320 Speaker 1: hot with the flat stick. And again, I do think 472 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 1: his ball striking is trending in a good direction with 473 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,200 Speaker 1: his irons, and we know that he has the the 474 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 1: off the team play to sort of compete with a 475 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 1: lot of this top end drivers of the golf ball. So, 476 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,200 Speaker 1: like all those names for long shot guys to potentially 477 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 1: have their name in the mix, there come Sunday, all. 478 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 3: Right, Kyle has signed a scorecard. He's in the clubhouse. Spencer, 479 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,400 Speaker 3: you're walking up eighteen, take us home. 480 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,120 Speaker 2: I will say this, Kyle and I are in lockstep 481 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:21,919 Speaker 2: with a lot of the answers that we've given on 482 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 2: this show. So I mean, that's a that's an interesting 483 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 2: out put that things to consider. 484 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 4: There. 485 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 2: I'm gonna I'll give you one head to head bet 486 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 2: that I really like, and then I'll give you an 487 00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 2: additional player outside of the Keith Mitchells of the world 488 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,919 Speaker 2: that Kyle just talked about. If I don't think you 489 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,640 Speaker 2: have win equity with this answer, this is probably more 490 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,680 Speaker 2: of the top forty at two to one I've seen 491 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:46,920 Speaker 2: some interesting numbers on this golfer to make the cut, 492 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,879 Speaker 2: but thorbi aren't Olison was a name for me that 493 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,760 Speaker 2: was very surprisingly within the top thirty of my win 494 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:56,120 Speaker 2: equity model. He lacked any of the truly high end 495 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 2: marks that I would want to see for him to 496 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 2: actually be able to win this at that three three 497 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 2: hundred to plus one range. But that is a name 498 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 2: that I will try to get exposure to this week, 499 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,439 Speaker 2: and then the matchup that I will give out on 500 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:12,640 Speaker 2: here is I took Bud Cawley minus one twenty over 501 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 2: Lucas Glover. It's a really weird profile from Glover in 502 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,480 Speaker 2: my model because a lot of what I try to find, 503 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 2: and I've done a lot of Action Network shows that 504 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 2: if you've listened to me in the past, one of 505 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:25,399 Speaker 2: the things that you know that I try to find 506 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 2: is miscut equity. I'm always trying to find a golfer 507 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 2: that I'm looking to oppose more even than what I'm 508 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:35,119 Speaker 2: looking to back, and Glover does have some safety in 509 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 2: the profile. Top approach player in this tournament, top forty 510 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 2: around the green. Those two metrics in particular, when you're 511 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 2: looking at upside versus safety. It's the approach play in 512 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,719 Speaker 2: the around the green metrics that usually give you more 513 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 2: of a potential to make the cut. When you're looking 514 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,679 Speaker 2: for upside to actually win this, it comes down to 515 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 2: carry distance and your ability to make putts on this, 516 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:03,200 Speaker 2: and that is where I worry about Glover's overall profile here. 517 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 2: He ranked an extremely paltry one hundred and fifty second 518 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 2: out of one hundred and fifty six golfers for me 519 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 2: in that pure carry distance answer. When you look at 520 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 2: a wet setting, then he was also outside of one 521 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:17,480 Speaker 2: hundredth when looking into courses that demanded bogie avoidance from 522 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:20,880 Speaker 2: a longer distance. None of that necessarily means that he's 523 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:22,960 Speaker 2: going to miss the weekend, because he does have safety 524 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,800 Speaker 2: built into the profile to some extent. But Cally was 525 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 2: a golfer for me that top twenty five in safety, 526 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,640 Speaker 2: much higher than the market seemed to be on Callie. 527 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 2: So I like this as a spot of a golfer 528 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:36,680 Speaker 2: that I was looking to back in Callie. There are 529 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,520 Speaker 2: some negative marks if we're looking from just pure carry distance, 530 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 2: but I think this is a nice spot that if 531 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:43,960 Speaker 2: it goes for four days, I like where we stand 532 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 2: with it and The goal is to avoid one of 533 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,440 Speaker 2: those situations where Glover gets through the weekend and Callie doesn't, 534 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,120 Speaker 2: because I think if we can get four days out 535 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,359 Speaker 2: of this, I like where we stand with Bud Cally. 536 00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,919 Speaker 3: That's a wrap on our Best Best episode here for 537 00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 3: the twenty twenty five PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Special 538 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 3: thanks to Spencer and Kyle for their analysis. Our next 539 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,439 Speaker 3: episode will feature Sean Zerrilla and Mike Conti covering the 540 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,119 Speaker 3: action at the Preakness Stakes, So if you're interested in 541 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:11,120 Speaker 3: the ponies, make sure to update and refresh your podcast 542 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,199 Speaker 3: feeds so you don't miss that as soon as it drops. 543 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 3: A special thanks to our sponsor, Underdog Fantasy. Best of 544 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 3: luck to all your bets, and we'll see you back 545 00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 3: here next time on the Action Network podcast. Action Network 546 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:29,480 Speaker 3: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you 547 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 3: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty 548 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 3: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler