1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcasts podcast. All right, 2 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: here we go spreading the corn ten seconds of annas 3 00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: the just go show. 4 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: Under the basket, Under the basket, it's the troop for 5 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 2: the wind. 6 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:22,440 Speaker 3: God make go amarracle. 7 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 4: I'm just toop the water. Hit that one from the 8 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:28,880 Speaker 4: parking lot. 9 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 5: Shuck it all. 10 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 4: It's codge basketball. 11 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 2: It's not the size on the dog in the fight. 12 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 2: It's the size of the fight in the dog. 13 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 4: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets 14 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 4: on Campus Podcast. This is the Sweet sixteen Betting Preview, 15 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 4: Part one. I'm stucky in joining me to preview Thursday's 16 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 4: car are the gentlemen from the Three Man Weave, Matt Cox, 17 00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 4: Kimiccewan and Jim Root. Gentlemen, have you fully covered from 18 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 4: your Vegas weekend for the first two rounds? 19 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 6: I'd say I'm close. I wouldn't say my voice is 20 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:09,119 Speaker 6: at one hundred percent, but you know it's it's kind 21 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 6: of more of the dulcet tones. It's a little bit raspy. 22 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 6: It's good. Maybe it makes for a better radio voice, 23 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 6: to be quite honest. Matt Uley's just got back to Chicago. 24 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I think I need some more tenor 25 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 5: in my voice, so I'm actually glad that the raspiness 26 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 5: is sort of permeating to this week. 27 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 2: Kay, how are you feeling. 28 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 7: Fully back bodily? But my voice is also struggling, stucky. 29 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 7: Hopefully we can get through the whole podcast with you though. 30 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 4: Well, four games, so we shouldn't be that long, but 31 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 4: we're going to go into all four and we'll go 32 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,400 Speaker 4: in chronological order without further ado. Let's just jump right 33 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 4: into it. The first game on Thursday on CBS seven 34 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 4: and nine Eastern Arkansas the four seed against Gonzaga, the 35 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 4: one seed. Chalk held here, Gonzaga eight and a half nine, 36 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 4: starting to creep up nine, nine and a half point 37 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 4: favorite over under, sitting in a pretty high one fifty five. 38 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 4: The interesting thing coming into this is that I think, 39 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 4: you know, Arkansas barely escaped to double digit seeds, didn't 40 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 4: look that convinceding doing so. And you might say, look, 41 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 4: Gonzaga wasn't the strongest performance for one, but in my opinion, 42 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 4: Gonzaga got shafted like they played a fourteen as a 43 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 4: sixteen seed, and then obviously he's a late twenty one 44 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 4: nothing run. Thankfully, Georgia State hold up for the cover, 45 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 4: and then they played a Memphis team that you could 46 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 4: argue as the top ten team in the country right 47 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 4: now and playing like it with top ten talent, So 48 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 4: really like they they weren't they didn't have a true 49 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 4: path have a number one seed. So Gonzaga's here nine, 50 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:38,800 Speaker 4: nine and a half point favorite. I think that in 51 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,079 Speaker 4: order for Arkansas to have a shot here, because there's 52 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:42,639 Speaker 4: there's a couple of things I just don't like from 53 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 4: a matchup perspective. They need the good JD. Note, They 54 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 4: need him to go for like twenty eight or thirty, 55 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:49,799 Speaker 4: and he's been silent of late. You probably need a 56 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 4: mood out to hit a bunch of threes because look, 57 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:54,519 Speaker 4: but it's not a grey three point shooting team, and 58 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 4: you're not gonna get much of the room against Gonzaga. 59 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:59,519 Speaker 4: And if Arkansas is taking wild shots because they're not 60 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,360 Speaker 4: getting at long, Gonzaga doesn't really fail. It's you know, 61 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:05,399 Speaker 4: Gonzaga is going to get theirs in transition, Like, it's 62 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 4: hard for me to see Arkansas stealing this one. I mean, 63 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 4: Jalen Williams taking a couple charges on like Chet or Timmy. 64 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 4: He's the charge back. Maybe that can swing the game, 65 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 4: but that doesn't necessarily mean that the line there might 66 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:22,839 Speaker 4: be idue in Arkansas on the spread. Jim, I'll start 67 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 4: with you. What do you see here? 68 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 6: Yeah, this is a difficult matchup for Arkansas. I think 69 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:31,080 Speaker 6: we saw Gonzaga struggle with the front court size and 70 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 6: debt that Memphis could throw it down with Williams and 71 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 6: Dandridge and Durham. I don't really see Arkansas with that. 72 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 6: Jalen Williams is a solid big as you mentioned the 73 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 6: charge master, He's only in the forty fourth percentile as 74 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 6: a post defender percentergy. And we saw Drew Timmy wake 75 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 6: up and be kind of like the ultimate version of 76 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 6: Timmy last year. That was like toying with Evan Mobley, 77 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 6: that kind of guy down the stretch against Memphis, he 78 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 6: was in his turbo mode. I think he has a 79 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 6: monster game here, potentially getting Williams in foul trouble. And 80 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 6: then you go to you know, Trey Wade and Kamani Johnson, Like, 81 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 6: I think those guys are going to get absolutely destroyed 82 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 6: by Gonzaga's front line. But on the other hand, I'm 83 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 6: not very high on the Zags perimeter defenders. They're not 84 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:19,279 Speaker 6: very stout. They don't have those big three and D 85 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:21,920 Speaker 6: kind of wings that can keep guys in front play 86 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 6: physical with with guards and wings. So I think no 87 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 6: Ta can get in the lane. I think Devo Davis 88 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 6: can get in the lane. Likes even if he plays 89 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 6: can you get into that mid range jump where he's 90 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 6: actually pretty deadly. So I think there's a decent amount 91 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 6: of points in this one. Neither team really wants to 92 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 6: slow it down leaning towards the over. Ever, so slight 93 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 6: lean to Arkansas on the side, just because I feel 94 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 6: like maybe it could be a single digit game, but 95 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 6: it's not super strong on the side. It's more of 96 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 6: an overtake for me here. 97 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, I might you could also look at You could 98 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 4: also look live, Jim. I mean, Arksas comes out slow, 99 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 4: they're pretty shaky. You know, is going to have their runs. 100 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 5: But back ahad Oh yeah, I think there's actually a 101 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:04,719 Speaker 5: few live betting opportunities in these matchups both Thursday and Friday. 102 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 5: You mentioned the note factor five of thirty from three 103 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 5: his last five games, fifteen turnovers. 104 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 2: I know he had eight steals in that last game. 105 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 5: It's in Mexico State, which by the way, was the 106 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:17,280 Speaker 5: first Arkansas game that's gone under I believe in the 107 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 5: last ten or something, So there was a massive overstreak 108 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 5: I think coinciding with just how well that offense was 109 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:25,840 Speaker 5: ho humming, but slowly overlapping with that recent demise has 110 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 5: been Note's erraticness, which I think is more of the 111 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 5: true Note. 112 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 2: And I think this is all. 113 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:33,280 Speaker 5: About him because, as you mentioned, Gonzaga's primter defenders are 114 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 5: vulnerable and Nottae is the guy that can really take 115 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 5: advantage if he's on. He just hasn't been and I 116 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,359 Speaker 5: think people have game planned and devised against him, and 117 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 5: just in general, like did we ever really buy Note 118 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:45,159 Speaker 5: is like an All American candidate? Like the two months 119 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 5: in what he was playing like that I never did 120 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 5: the high Archay knuckleble. So I word that this Arkansas 121 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 5: team is starting to kind of trend back toward the 122 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 5: more mortal version we saw in the first half of 123 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 5: the year, not the invincible version we saw the second half. 124 00:05:57,480 --> 00:05:59,159 Speaker 2: But I think the truth being somewhere in the middle. 125 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with you on Note, but his ceiling, 126 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 4: like his ceiling is like All America when he plays 127 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 4: at his absolute best. But the variants is extremely high, 128 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:11,600 Speaker 4: and you mentioned his steals. Obviously, very aggressive defender can 129 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 4: get a lot of steels, but that also can lead 130 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:16,599 Speaker 4: him into foul trouble. Another angle to watch here with 131 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:20,479 Speaker 4: fouls is Musselman's kind of like cal PARI kind of 132 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 4: like who guard and would sit like a lot of 133 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 4: these some of these coaches that are so conservative when 134 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 4: someone gets two fouls. I mean, I've seen note who 135 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 4: gets in foul trouble quite a bit. He gets like 136 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 4: his second foul seventeen minutes and a half and he's 137 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 4: sitting the rest of the half, like you can't do 138 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 4: that here, I don't think, but we'll see anything that. 139 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 7: Yeah. I mean, I am, of course worried about no 140 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 7: Ta getting in the lane, but I'm not too worried 141 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 7: about him scoring down there. I'm not worried about any 142 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 7: of the guards scoring. This is the number one two 143 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 7: point field gro percent his defense in the country. Gonzaga 144 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:53,720 Speaker 7: they don't mind if guards get in the lane. They 145 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:56,279 Speaker 7: stop it all day. With Timmy and Holmgren. And you 146 00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 7: mentioned stucky Arkansas struggle with a thirteen to twelve sey 147 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 7: their own two against the spread tournament, I don't think 148 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 7: they have enough juice to handle Gonzaga. I don't think 149 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:07,159 Speaker 7: they can stop them. Gonzaga seven turnovers against Georgia State 150 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 7: and seven and it's Memphis. 151 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 2: That's incredible. 152 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 7: I don't think they're gonna be bothered by Arkansas's half 153 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 7: court pressure. I really like Gonzaga here. 154 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's really a really excellent point is that Memphis 155 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 4: can obviously turn you over. And I thought to myself 156 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 4: going into that game that Memphis might be able to 157 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 4: pressure Gonzaga's guards into some turnovers that because I mean, 158 00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 4: you look at Kenzaga's turnvers numbers, they're excellent, but they 159 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 4: don't really face a ton of teams throughout the course 160 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 4: of the season they're going to pressure them. So it's 161 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 4: kind of like conjecture on my part. But they played 162 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 4: Georgia State and Memphis, two teams that can pressure. They 163 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 4: didn't turn it over at all, So, I mean, and 164 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 4: that's one of the routes that Arkansas has to get offenses, 165 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 4: like turning thim's over, getting to the line, all these 166 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 4: things that Gonzaga just doesn't do. So you don't think 167 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 4: there's any pressure concern here from Arkansas and not taking 168 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 4: company Jim, do. 169 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 6: You I don't. I also just kind of like a 170 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 6: weird intrinsic thing with with Gonzaga. And this could be 171 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 6: totally my perception in and not anything based in reality, 172 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 6: but I think there's gonna be some uplift to surviving 173 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 6: a game like the Memphis one. They're down ten at halftime. 174 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 6: I think they felt their backs against the wall. Timmy 175 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 6: especially seemed like I'm not doing this again. We came 176 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 6: up short last year and he took control himself. Credit 177 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 6: to him. So I think surviving a really difficult matchup 178 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 6: like that against a talented team, like you said, it's 179 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 6: probably underseeded based on how they've been playing, I almost 180 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 6: think that could be kind of like a release for them. 181 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:30,960 Speaker 6: And now they come out with just an absolute home 182 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 6: run performance against a team that's gonna let them run. 183 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:36,200 Speaker 6: And you can't let Gonzaga run. That's bad news. 184 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, letting Gonzager get in a transition usually is going 185 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 4: to end in disaster. By the way, Unfortunately, see Memphis 186 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 4: leave the tournament having to play against the number one 187 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:48,440 Speaker 4: overall seed there because they were playing such good basketball 188 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 4: and they really could have made a deep run. And 189 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 4: thanks for giving us a good game too, because there 190 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 4: was not many thrilling games late, and that was one 191 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 4: of the better games of the first round. All right, 192 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 4: let's move on to the second game that'll tip. I 193 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 4: think about twenty minutes after Arkansas at Zaga, and that's 194 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 4: Michigan Villanova. Michigan the eleven seed. I think they've evanced 195 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 4: to a five or six straight Sweet sixteens taking on 196 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 4: the two seed Villanova. Villanova is a five point favor 197 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 4: here over under his tick down about a point point 198 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:22,439 Speaker 4: after one thirty five odds tidbit. I don't mean to 199 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 4: know if this is true, but I think I saw 200 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,559 Speaker 4: Michigan and Villanova women's playing, which is was it eleven 201 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 4: two or eleven three yesterday? I think I saw that. 202 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 4: Maybe I'm wrong, Lady cats, Jim, I'll kick it to 203 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 4: you first. Really fascinating matchup. You have the obviously the 204 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 4: excellence of the Villanova I guess, just their whole team 205 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:43,840 Speaker 4: and their guards, Colin Gillespie leading the way. And then 206 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 4: you got Hunter Dickinson inside. How much damage can he do? 207 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 4: Kind of fascinating and break this down for many ways. 208 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 4: But where are you looking here? 209 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm looking at the over. I think that kind 210 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 6: of Dickinson is the ultimate swing factor that I think 211 00:09:56,120 --> 00:10:00,080 Speaker 6: sets up a pretty positive look for the over. He 212 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 6: can get his inside, and I kind of think Jay 213 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 6: Wright's largely okay with that. They'll dig when when you 214 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 6: post up, but they're not a hard double team. They're 215 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 6: usually they're kind of thinking their offense can out efficient 216 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 6: a post score like I do. I don't think Jay 217 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:18,080 Speaker 6: Wright respects the post as like a every single time 218 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 6: down option, scoring over the top of Dixon, scoring over 219 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 6: the top of Samuels. So I think he's going to 220 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 6: let Dickinson get his. Then on the other end, Villanova's 221 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:30,200 Speaker 6: going to move him around, put Dickinson in ball screens, 222 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 6: spread out the floor with Dixon. I mean, he had 223 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 6: two huge threes against Ohio State, and I think that's 224 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 6: just a statement of purpose that he can do that 225 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 6: if you're not going to guard him to the perimeter 226 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 6: and Dickinson does not want to get out there. I 227 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:46,959 Speaker 6: like the over a lot here. It's not really a 228 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:50,000 Speaker 6: tempo based over, and I'm concerned that there might not 229 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:52,959 Speaker 6: be a ton of possessions, but I think efficiency is 230 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 6: going to be really high because both teams have clear 231 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 6: routes to scoring against the other defense here. 232 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, obviously both tames here, especially Leanov, but don't want 233 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 4: to play particularly fast. But yeah, if the efficiency's there, 234 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 4: could sneak over or something else. To keep in mind, 235 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:11,080 Speaker 4: if you are laying the points with Villanova and it's 236 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 4: close late and you think that Novah's just a tad 237 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 4: a bit better, there's no better team you want in 238 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 4: your back pocket to cover four to five points. If 239 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 4: you're gonna let it, then Villanova, who never misses free 240 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 4: throws almost always, but especially in the last two minutes 241 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 4: of a game. They have guards that are like ninety percent, 242 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 4: and they're just gonna if they're up three, they're gonna 243 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 4: go make two, go up five. Teams three, they're gonna 244 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 4: go up seven. So three, all of a sudden it's nine. 245 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 4: So you have that working for you if you are 246 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 4: thinking about backing Villanova, Kyle, go to you any thoughts here. 247 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:43,000 Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm kind of nervous about fading Michigan here because 248 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:44,319 Speaker 7: you mentioned they have been to a lot of sweet 249 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 7: sixteens lately, and I don't think Juwan Howard's ever not 250 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 7: been to the lead eight as a player or a coach, 251 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 7: so he has presence of getting to the next round. 252 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 7: It feels a bit short if I'm looking at it 253 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 7: from a pure okay Villanova Michigan perspective and not the 254 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 7: randomness of the tournament. Michigan's defense not great. We saw 255 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 7: Nova slice up Ohio State pretty easily one point two 256 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 7: points per possession of that game. And Villanova's wings their 257 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 7: size or switchability that could be a big issue for Brooks, 258 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 7: Collins Jones all around six foot sixty one. It does 259 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:16,679 Speaker 7: feel a bit low here. I'm leaning towards Michigan and 260 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:20,000 Speaker 7: that plus five with Juwan Howard on the sidelines. 261 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 4: Matt, I'll thok to you of your thoughts and then 262 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 4: also let me know if have you changed any of 263 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 4: your and I'll get the other thoughts to the other 264 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 4: guys too on this. Have you changed any of your 265 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 4: thoughts on this conferences as a whole after the first weekend, 266 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 4: like we saw the ace, it's like all of a sudden, Okay, 267 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 4: maybe the ACC wasn't as bad as we thought. And 268 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:39,840 Speaker 4: again we're talking to small sample size to so you 269 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:41,599 Speaker 4: have to just take a leap of faith sometimes in 270 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 4: these You know, the Big twelve showed itself pretty well 271 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 4: and then you had the big ten struggle. The SEC 272 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 4: top teams had some struggles, So does that weigh into 273 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:53,199 Speaker 4: anything that you're looking at this week. 274 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 5: No, I like to shun the conference narratives, and maybe 275 00:12:56,559 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 5: that's short sighted given now we've seen two straight years 276 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 5: of Big Ten under achieve I think your point's tucky 277 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:05,559 Speaker 5: about the Big Twelve being a good bet on conference 278 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:08,440 Speaker 5: because of the similarities of the defenses they see within 279 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 5: that league, just the gauntlet of defensive squads that you 280 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 5: have to go through. 281 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 2: You get out of that, and. 282 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:14,840 Speaker 5: I think you see offenses open up, almost like a 283 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 5: brush of a breath of fresh air. That's the one 284 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 5: I really buy into, is the Big Twelve thing, But 285 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:22,560 Speaker 5: I guess for this game obviously not relevant. 286 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 2: Jim mentioned the over. I also like the over too. 287 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:27,560 Speaker 5: The more I've looked at it, though I'm starting to 288 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 5: I'm concerned that I didn't really look at the how 289 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,959 Speaker 5: much Nova's really slow the pace down the last four 290 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 5: or five games. Like they always play methodical, obviously, but 291 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:39,959 Speaker 5: just like they have no interest in even attacking a 292 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:43,319 Speaker 5: moderate to minor advantage in transition. Last I think or 293 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:45,840 Speaker 5: six or seven games, only one's gone over sixty six 294 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 5: possessions they're four and one to the under in their 295 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 5: last five. On the other side of the coin, Michigan, 296 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 5: they're playing Frankie Collins a lot more. You know, DeVante 297 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,400 Speaker 5: Jones had that concussion, He comes back, he starts. He 298 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 5: only played twelve minutes last game, though Colin's got the 299 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:58,960 Speaker 5: bulk of those minutes. I think he's reed as the 300 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 5: best can cuss the game just again, that's right, Okay, yeah, yeah, 301 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 5: But I think Collins is really I think proven he's 302 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 5: worthy of that spot. His defense and while his offense 303 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 5: is still kind of work in progress, you can see 304 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 5: the upside there. 305 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 2: So I think those are some concerns. 306 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 5: I guess looking to back be Over, I mean, all 307 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 5: of these totals for Thursday have really stayed pretty stagnant, 308 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 5: so I think that, you know, both sides of the 309 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 5: market are staying up. Dover is pretty sharp one thirty five, 310 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 5: one thirty five and a half in a few shops. Again, 311 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 5: I think the Trump cars that this does play to 312 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 5: a pretty highly efficient game, and I do still lean 313 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 5: the over. 314 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, I would be concerned about a couple of things 315 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 4: here with Michigan's defense. I mentioned this with Nova. I 316 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 4: thought a potential matchup with Tennessee, we could see this 317 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 4: and I have the same concerns Theanova guards backing them 318 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 4: down in the post with the inverted offense, and then Lellanova. 319 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 4: Both these teams run a lot of pick and roll. 320 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:49,240 Speaker 4: Villanova runs at a top fifteen rate in the country, 321 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 4: obviously elite at executing in that sense. They're in the 322 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 4: ninety seventh percentile for synergy. Michigan's perimater defense has struggled 323 00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 4: in that aspect, and they aren't just in the seventh 324 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 4: percentile nationally against ball handlers and pick and roll and 325 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 4: the flip side. Villanova is a lot better defending pick 326 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 4: and role action. So those two things concerned me a bit. 327 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 4: So I would have a slight lead to Villanova. I'd 328 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 4: like to get maybe a little better number live, but again, 329 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:18,760 Speaker 4: like if they're up three to four, it's so easy 330 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 4: for them to extend at the line. Having said that, 331 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 4: that means like Gillespie's gonna miss two free thurs to 332 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 4: cover I pad doesn't advance anyone back in Nova. And 333 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 4: by the way, to go back to what you mentioned 334 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 4: about the Big twelve narrative that's going to lead into 335 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 4: our next game, something that really strengthened my thoughts on it, 336 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 4: but I'm probably gonna go against it because I like Miami. 337 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 4: Just on the matchup Iowa State, who's in the sweet sixteenth, 338 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 4: I didn't think that, you know. I mean, granted, they 339 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 4: played Wisconsin at the Hepburn got hurt, they played a 340 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 4: LSU team was just a mess. But Iowa State, like 341 00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 4: remember there at remember before conference play, like they couldn't lose. 342 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 4: They were beating everybody, and then you know, then they 343 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 4: obviously hit a wall on the Big twelve. But if 344 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 4: you just isolate their non conference results, it's a night 345 00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 4: and debt. But let's get into the next game, the 346 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 4: first of the late games, and we're gonna talk a 347 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 4: Big twelve team. Three seed Texas Tech chalkout here got 348 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 4: taking on Duke, the two seed. Both teams survived late, 349 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 4: survived scares Duke against Michigan State, Texas Tech against Notre Dame. 350 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:21,800 Speaker 4: Texas Tech one point favored here over under one. P 351 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 4: thirty seven. I'm gonna throw this to Kai to start 352 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 4: us off and get the discussion going. What are you 353 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 4: seeing here with Duke Texas Tech? Really fascinating matchup. 354 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 7: I'm seeing Texas Tech with the number one defense in 355 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 7: the country, and I've watched the team play several times 356 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 7: in the tournament. They're just so intimidating and Duke. We'ld 357 00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 7: have heard the naress before about Coach K's let's say, 358 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 7: offensive game planning ability, but it's mostly Duke can just 359 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 7: go out and out talent and out athlete teams when 360 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 7: they're on the floor. I don't think you can do 361 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 7: that against Texas Tech. They're too disciplined. They're way too 362 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 7: good defending in the paint. So I think Duke really 363 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 7: struggles here you're on the offensive end. I think Mark 364 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:04,640 Speaker 7: Adams is a better coach than Coach K. I kind 365 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 7: of trust him more in this matchup. A Texas Tech 366 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 7: has its own issues offensively, but I am going with 367 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,440 Speaker 7: the superior defensive team. That is the superior coach team 368 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 7: here in taking Texas Tech. 369 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:16,359 Speaker 4: Do you agree. 370 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:18,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, I've watched you plenty of this year. I know 371 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:18,919 Speaker 2: what their issues are. 372 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,439 Speaker 5: They they drive the ball relentlessly into gaps, and if 373 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 5: you can't defend that, you have a tough time stopping them. 374 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 5: The Texas Tech is the best gap protecting defense in 375 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,200 Speaker 5: the country. Barn, that's what That's what mister Adams does. 376 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,639 Speaker 5: That's his whole DNA. That's how that's how he's designed 377 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:33,720 Speaker 5: that defense. Now Duke can make shots over the top. 378 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:35,959 Speaker 5: We've seen them do that at times too. That's just 379 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 5: a less reliable, a less stable path to points. And 380 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 5: just given this year apathy in which coach k is 381 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 5: game planned against these types of matchups this season, I 382 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,400 Speaker 5: think he's just relied on the talent to overcome. Does 383 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 5: not give me the warm and fuzzies against the Texas 384 00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 5: Tech team that looks awesome right now, and I know 385 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:54,440 Speaker 5: they came back down to earth a little bit offensively 386 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 5: against Notre Dame, but Duke's defense can be shredded in 387 00:17:58,000 --> 00:17:59,920 Speaker 5: pick and rell action. I think the Notre Dames and 388 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:03,600 Speaker 5: more cohesive defensive structure that forced text Tech to get 389 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:06,480 Speaker 5: tougher shots. I think Duke, while though they had the 390 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 5: propensity to be a great defensive team when they're locked 391 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:11,159 Speaker 5: in and engaged, they also have some structural flaws that 392 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 5: again I expect Mark Adams, but four or five days 393 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 5: to a prep to exploit. So I think the price 394 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,159 Speaker 5: is a little bit shaded too much in Tech direction. 395 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:19,960 Speaker 5: I think Duke should be favored by a point but 396 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:22,800 Speaker 5: the matchup angles are too strong. I'm leaning Tech here 397 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 5: pretty hard. 398 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, there's there's a part of me that says, maybe 399 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 4: the key to this game and this is I was 400 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 4: bricked o on the Summers. I didn't expect to have 401 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 4: this take at all, But is it? Is it Texas 402 00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:37,440 Speaker 4: Text transition offense and I was looking Texas Tech transition 403 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 4: offense is let me see what they're they're exter Let's see. 404 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 4: Hold on, I gotta look, so ninety seventh percentile inefficiency 405 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:47,640 Speaker 4: and their half court offense obviously is anywhere close to that. 406 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 4: Can they get out and transition against the Duke defense 407 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:53,880 Speaker 4: that's in the thirty first percent of they struggle defending 408 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 4: in transition because I don't know if Texas Text offense 409 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 4: is going to have much success in the half court, 410 00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 4: Like you can't really score at the rim against due 411 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 4: they you know, they don't foul, and I don't think 412 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 4: Texas tex offense can exploit some of the issues that 413 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,439 Speaker 4: we've seen with Duke's defense down the stretch. So this 414 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 4: and Duke obviously is great in transition offensively with their 415 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 4: athletes shout, but Texas Tech's great transition defense. They also 416 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 4: are good on the offensive glass, So I don't know 417 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 4: how many opportunities Duke's can have. So does it come 418 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,879 Speaker 4: down to just Okay, is Duke making their outside shots 419 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:22,840 Speaker 4: and they have the outside shooters. That's how you have 420 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,119 Speaker 4: to beat this Texas Tech defense, right they give up 421 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 4: the fifteenth post three attempts in the country. You have 422 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,400 Speaker 4: to just beat this no middle ish defense from over 423 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 4: the top. But if you're not making those shots, are 424 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,680 Speaker 4: their long rebounds? And is that where Texas Tech actually 425 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,400 Speaker 4: finds some offense? But you know, part of me thinks 426 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 4: that Duke has the just they have the individual talent 427 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,200 Speaker 4: to make enough plays, and again that I think is 428 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:46,359 Speaker 4: going to be ugly. I love the under here, It's 429 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,639 Speaker 4: probably my favorite bet tomorrow. I just don't think the 430 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 4: Texas Tech's offense, which can't really shoot, don't see them 431 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 4: getting a lot at the rim. And I think Duke's 432 00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:56,880 Speaker 4: athletes can defend them here individually. So you know, maybe 433 00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,400 Speaker 4: if Texas Tech's getting out and running a little bit, 434 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 4: be great for the under Maybe that's their best path 435 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 4: to offense. But I think this is going to be 436 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 4: a close one, and maybe it's like there was a 437 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,400 Speaker 4: game if these two teams played each other two years 438 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 4: ago and on a neutral DWO point sixty nine fifty eight. 439 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 4: Tech I think didn't score, didn't hit a shot in 440 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 4: the last eight minutes ended sixty nine fifty eight. They 441 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 4: scored it like both at like point eight points per possession. 442 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 4: I wouldn't be shocked if we see something similar here. 443 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 4: Jim curious to get your thoughts. Yeah, that's that's kind 444 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 4: of the way I'm leaning too with the under. But 445 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:31,640 Speaker 4: I'm with Kai. I like Texas Tech. 446 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 6: There's two big numbers that I think are huge for 447 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 6: this matchup. Texas Tech has played twenty four unique opponents 448 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 6: this year, obviously a couple of teams twice in Big 449 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 6: twelve play. But of those twenty four, seventeen have their 450 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,959 Speaker 6: lowest points in the paint total against Texas Tech. I mean, 451 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 6: that's just that's what they do. Like Matt said, they 452 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 6: keep you out of gaps. They will double the post 453 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 6: if they have somebody that think can really score in there. 454 00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,640 Speaker 6: They keep you outside, force you to shoot over the top. 455 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 6: They're big positionally, every guy is strong up and down 456 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 6: the lineup, so it's a tough team to drive on. 457 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,360 Speaker 6: And then the other number we talked about Duke's defensive struggles. 458 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 6: I don't know if it's just documented how pathetic it's 459 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 6: been for them recently. Since March first, Duke's played seven 460 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,760 Speaker 6: games you filter Bart Torvet for since March first. Their 461 00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,640 Speaker 6: defense is one hundred and ninety first in the country. 462 00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 6: Like they haven't stopped anybody, including Syracuse without Buddy Beheim, 463 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 6: like Fullton's the only team they held below one point 464 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 6: per possession, and it was not that far below. I 465 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,440 Speaker 6: think Texas Tech will find some route to points here, 466 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:38,120 Speaker 6: mostly just because Duke has lapses mentally. They just lose 467 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 6: focus sometimes, and I think they can be in with 468 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 6: cuts in some precision type offense. But yeah, I like 469 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,159 Speaker 6: Texas Tech. I agree with the under but I'll be 470 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,960 Speaker 6: on Texas Tech minus one. I just don't think this 471 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:52,160 Speaker 6: Duke team has it right now. 472 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 4: Man, you watch Duke a lot, maybe as much as anyone. 473 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 4: Is that all it is on defense? Is it a 474 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 4: scheme issue? Is it just we're young and we're missing 475 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:06,440 Speaker 4: assignments off ball and the communication is just off. Does 476 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:09,080 Speaker 4: it come down to coaching now? Is it fixable to 477 00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 4: make a run at a national title here? Or is 478 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 4: that just gonna be their downfall? As we've been saying 479 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 4: for the past month. 480 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 5: Yea, I think the stats that Jim brings up irrelevant, 481 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 5: that there are real structural issues, like just they can't 482 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 5: really defend pick and roll it. Sometimes they get lost 483 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 5: on the help set, like when the ball gets reversed, 484 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,679 Speaker 5: like the guy rolling is usually left and it leaves. 485 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 5: You know, the teams can pull guys like Mark Williams 486 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 5: lay from the basket if they run smart, you know, 487 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,360 Speaker 5: effective action on the perimeter. I think the key thing 488 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,640 Speaker 5: that the Gym's also brought though in the past games 489 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 5: are about to so I think they have the ability 490 00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 5: to flip on the switch and that you know, you 491 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 5: turn up the you know, the pressure cooker to a 492 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 5: we're all in on this game type of effort. Not 493 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 5: that they weren't last game against Michigan State, but I 494 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 5: do think that can negate some of their structural flaws, 495 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:55,679 Speaker 5: some of the mental laps that we see. 496 00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 2: But also Jeremy Roach too. 497 00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 5: I mean, I think he's been a key impetus on 498 00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 5: both ends of the floor and he's gonna obviously play 499 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,040 Speaker 5: big mints in this game. His usage has spiked pretty 500 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:07,400 Speaker 5: substantially last you know, five six games. I think he's 501 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 5: a ballhawk. He's a disruptor on the defensive end as well. 502 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 5: So I guess you're looking to back. You're probably looking 503 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 5: at the ascension of Jeremy Roach is a big reason why. 504 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 4: Well, since I know you love your Zags, Zago, assume 505 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 4: Zago wins is gonna be a rematch no matter what 506 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:24,520 Speaker 4: say you have, someone has a Gonzaga future out there, 507 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,239 Speaker 4: or you just want you want your Zags to win 508 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 4: it all? Who would you rather face? And by the way, 509 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 4: the Duke. Gonzaga lost to Duke on a neutral eighty 510 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,399 Speaker 4: four eighty one earlier this year, and they beat Texas 511 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 4: Tech on a neutral sixty nine fifty five. Terren Shannon 512 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,639 Speaker 4: didn't play it's worth doting for Texas Tech there. So 513 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:46,000 Speaker 4: who if you're rooting for Gonzaga, you have a Gonzaga future, 514 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:48,960 Speaker 4: who would you rather see for that one? 515 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,119 Speaker 6: If you're Gonzaga, I think I'd rather see Texas Tech. 516 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,680 Speaker 6: Mostly because of the final point Matt made where Duke 517 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 6: has that level that they can get to and they 518 00:23:58,040 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 6: showed it against Gonzaga the first time. I think they 519 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 6: took advantage of the Gonzaga perimeter defenders like Keels and more. 520 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,879 Speaker 6: We're just bullying the Gonzaga wings. The smaller guards, like 521 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,640 Speaker 6: was your Bolton got targeted relentlessly in that game. They 522 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,160 Speaker 6: got to the rim quite a bit. I think chet 523 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,440 Speaker 6: Holgren's a different player than he was in that game. 524 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,520 Speaker 6: But Williams handled Timmy on the block and those other 525 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,160 Speaker 6: those guards got into the paint. So despite that, Gonzaga 526 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 6: is one of those seventeen teams that at season low 527 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 6: in point paint points. Against Texas Tech, they could not 528 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 6: score against Gonzaga's defense, that number one two point percentage defense. 529 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 6: So I think you'd rather see Texas Texas because their 530 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,120 Speaker 6: ceiling is not as high as what Duke can throw 531 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:38,399 Speaker 6: at you. 532 00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,880 Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to the fourth and final 533 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 4: Sweet sixteen game on Thursday, and I mean, man, it's 534 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:47,560 Speaker 4: a hell of a night. I mean, you don't get 535 00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:49,880 Speaker 4: a ton of upsets in the first two rounds, which means, 536 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,119 Speaker 4: like Thursday, you get blockbuster matchups, like you get a 537 00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,159 Speaker 4: lot of the chalk and your double digit seat on 538 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:59,159 Speaker 4: Thursday's Michigan. So every matchup year is mouthwatering. I just 539 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:00,439 Speaker 4: can't wait for this one. This is the one I'm 540 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,959 Speaker 4: looking forward to the most Houston, a five seed by 541 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:05,639 Speaker 4: the way, five seed of the market, which is a 542 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,359 Speaker 4: one and a half point underdog, got a neutral to 543 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 4: the one seed Arizona. Although this is it's pretty close, 544 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:13,399 Speaker 4: it's in the game will be played in Texas, but 545 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 4: Arizona will have a lot of fans there and hopefully 546 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 4: we get the back and forth banter that we did 547 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 4: with Arizona and the TCU fans and man, that was 548 00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,119 Speaker 4: just a great atmosphere. But Arizona is a one and 549 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:30,200 Speaker 4: a half point favorite here over under one and a half. Matt, 550 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 4: I'll kick it to you to kick things off here. 551 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:32,919 Speaker 4: What are you seeing? 552 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:37,480 Speaker 5: I think Gonzaga and Arizona both obviously they played very 553 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,720 Speaker 5: similar stylistically given the two coaches there. I just the 554 00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 5: spot in which they're both in. I think people will 555 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 5: overreact or maybe overreacting to what they saw last round. 556 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 5: Where the case of Gonzaga, they just got faced off 557 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 5: with a team that people don't realize was are you'll 558 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:53,119 Speaker 5: be a top ten team with how well they've been 559 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,720 Speaker 5: playing in Memphis, and then TC's been playing a top 560 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 5: twenty team in the past few weeks. Just a juggernaut 561 00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 5: of a light bulb flick that turned onto the Jamie 562 00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 5: Dixon there, and I think they that was a good 563 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 5: litmus test for them, a good pretest to this physical 564 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 5: Houston team. You can argue they struggle in that matchup, 565 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 5: and that's maybe a bad omen for what's to come here. 566 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 5: I look at this more from a I'm wanting to 567 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 5: back Arizona in a sort of a bi Lo spot 568 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 5: if that's possible at Arizona, and that TCU game is 569 00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,280 Speaker 5: sort of a good tune up for what I think 570 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 5: is a good spot to back the Cats here, although 571 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,439 Speaker 5: I am worried you look at some of the personal issues. Man, 572 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 5: it's basically a two man team that beat TCU, so 573 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:32,400 Speaker 5: they're gonna need other guys to step up. Way too 574 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:36,639 Speaker 5: inconsistent or way too much inconsistency from the supporting cast. Still, 575 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:38,120 Speaker 5: I think minus one and a half is too cheap. 576 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:39,119 Speaker 5: I'm taking Arizona. 577 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:39,440 Speaker 2: Yeah. 578 00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,960 Speaker 4: You can look at that from each side. You could say, Okay, 579 00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 4: it's a good tune up. Or you can say, look, 580 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,200 Speaker 4: Arizona they want to run right, and then they're a 581 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,320 Speaker 4: little vulnerable in the offensive glass and then you have 582 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 4: like coming into the tournament, it was TCU and Houston 583 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:58,120 Speaker 4: were tied number one in the country an offensive rebounding rate, 584 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:00,960 Speaker 4: So you know, you can argue that Houston does it 585 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 4: a little bit better. I mean, they've done it for years. 586 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,600 Speaker 4: But those are the two best offensive rebound in teams 587 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,760 Speaker 4: in the country, two teams that just have men that 588 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 4: relentlessly attack the glass off missus. You saw tc You 589 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:14,199 Speaker 4: get twenty offensive rebounds and without a late three. You know, 590 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,200 Speaker 4: TC wins that game. So now Houston is a little 591 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,960 Speaker 4: better than TCU. The next time you say, Okay, we 592 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 4: got to tune up, let's make some adjustments to here, 593 00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:24,800 Speaker 4: which I think they might. I think they might go 594 00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,840 Speaker 4: a little bigger here, which I think lends itself to 595 00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,720 Speaker 4: an under I like the under here as well. I 596 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 4: think that Houston's gonna grind this down to a halt. 597 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:34,840 Speaker 4: Arizona wants to run, but I think that they have 598 00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:36,399 Speaker 4: to know that they can't just get dominating on the 599 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,520 Speaker 4: offensive glass again, so I think that they have to 600 00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:42,160 Speaker 4: go bigger. Don't two bells didn't play because he was 601 00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 4: was Mike Miles was like swatting his shots. They apparently 602 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:46,440 Speaker 4: he did. They just didn't think he was physical enough. 603 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 4: But I think Arizona has to make it a point 604 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 4: to get on the defensive glass. They're gonna have to 605 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,400 Speaker 4: go bigger, which obviously is going to hurt their transition. 606 00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,960 Speaker 4: It also hurt Houston's opportunities a second chance looks, and 607 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,040 Speaker 4: then make it more of a half court game. So 608 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,720 Speaker 4: that's the way that I think it plays out. It's 609 00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:07,360 Speaker 4: scary betting in Arizona under. Yeah, I mean my two 610 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,679 Speaker 4: recommendations are in Arizona under and a Duke under. So 611 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:14,440 Speaker 4: I apologize if those you know, completely sideways, but that's 612 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 4: the way I'm looking at it. But I like that point. 613 00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 4: It's a it's a it's a great test before Houston 614 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,800 Speaker 4: to play TCU Ken in Arizona, make the necessary adjustments 615 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,000 Speaker 4: and then kark Kris. What's he going to look like? 616 00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,479 Speaker 4: Because he was horrendous. Kyle, throw to you, what are 617 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:27,000 Speaker 4: your thoughts here? 618 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,159 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure Arizona solves it's boxing 619 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,600 Speaker 7: out issues in four days. That that seems to be 620 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,400 Speaker 7: intuitively who they are. I know they're well coaching Tommy Lloyd, 621 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 7: but I don't think that's something to get better at 622 00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:42,000 Speaker 7: over over a one game sample. Houston is, for my money, 623 00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,160 Speaker 7: the best coach team in the entire country. I think 624 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,840 Speaker 7: Samson is right up there number one coach. I mean, 625 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 7: look at their number two in kim Pum. With two 626 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,560 Speaker 7: of the best players out for the entire year. This 627 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:55,240 Speaker 7: team's awesome. They're going to defend the interior like crazy. 628 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 7: They're going to force Arizona to shoe bad jumpers, and 629 00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:00,440 Speaker 7: we know the Arizona Cards want to do that. You 630 00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:02,920 Speaker 7: mentioned Crease that he was like one for ten Dalan 631 00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:06,240 Speaker 7: Terry took terrible shots. I think Arizona does that quite 632 00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:08,120 Speaker 7: a bit against Houston. They're not going to give an 633 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,000 Speaker 7: inch inside. He saw how how much they hounded Kofey 634 00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:13,040 Speaker 7: Kober when he touched the ball. I think it's gonna 635 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,040 Speaker 7: be the same story here. I think he's the two disciplined, 636 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:19,160 Speaker 7: too well coached. I'm taking Houston, Jim, you want to say, Page. 637 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,920 Speaker 6: I'm very torn. I think both these guys have stronger 638 00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,600 Speaker 6: opinions one way or the other than I do. One 639 00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:29,040 Speaker 6: thing that I think is beneficial for Arizona here, Houston 640 00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 6: really tore apart Illinois in ball screens. They just put 641 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,920 Speaker 6: Kofee in ball screens. They went drop and Jamal shed 642 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,800 Speaker 6: hit jumper after jumper. Yep, he was sensational at like 643 00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 6: the elbow jumper. Coloco is way more mobile. He can 644 00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 6: actually switch that screen if Arizona wants to. Obviously, that 645 00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 6: then leaves you with a guard guarding a big man 646 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 6: and you're exposed in some of the offensive rebounding situations. 647 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:56,000 Speaker 6: But I am begging Tommy Lloyd to play more ballo 648 00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 6: in this game. I thought that was going small against TCU. 649 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 6: I thought was a major oversight. I didn't agree with 650 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 6: it at all. I thought that was when the big 651 00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,520 Speaker 6: run happened for TCU late. The on off numbers from 652 00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:10,680 Speaker 6: that game speak very well to Ballow's impact. The one 653 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:14,240 Speaker 6: other surprising thing from the on off numbers so Arizona's 654 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:15,320 Speaker 6: way better with crease on. 655 00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:17,479 Speaker 4: The floor, was plus twenty seven. I don't know how 656 00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:18,240 Speaker 4: that was possible. 657 00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:20,280 Speaker 6: It didn't that show up with the eye test at all. 658 00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 6: But I think they just need a shoot, the threat 659 00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:24,760 Speaker 6: of a shooter. I know he was one for ten, 660 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 6: but when he's not out there, there's just nobody that 661 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,600 Speaker 6: the defense is going to respect. And he's got four 662 00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:34,200 Speaker 6: more days to get healthier. The defensive issues, He's got 663 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:35,400 Speaker 6: to figure that out. He's got to be a little 664 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,640 Speaker 6: more explosive, but I think he'll make a few more 665 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,640 Speaker 6: shots than this one. I just think he'll be a 666 00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,400 Speaker 6: little healthier. So I'm leaning to Arizona because of the 667 00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:46,280 Speaker 6: I don't want to overreact what we saw this past weekend, 668 00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:49,240 Speaker 6: but man, I'm concerned about the offensive glass. 669 00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, he was getting beat every time down defensively, and 670 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 4: then he was one of ten from three for three 671 00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 4: points and a plus twenty seven being broken. To any shock, 672 00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,800 Speaker 4: body winner lose his Providence is going to win the 673 00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:06,000 Speaker 4: national title. Nothing makes sense anymore. Jim any thoughts on 674 00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 4: the total. Am I crazy for looking at an Arizona 675 00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 4: under thinking that this game is going to be played 676 00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:13,520 Speaker 4: more in the half court than most Arizona games. 677 00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 6: No, I'm with you. I think that, like you said, 678 00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 6: they got to play bigger. I'm begging for more ballow 679 00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 6: you get to seven foot not plotters, because Colloco can 680 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,520 Speaker 6: really move, and then Balot is more mobile than I'm 681 00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,520 Speaker 6: probably giving him credit for. But yeah, I think that's 682 00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:30,040 Speaker 6: what we see. Arizona's going to try to get going 683 00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,360 Speaker 6: in transition, but Houston won't, so I think we'll probably 684 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,240 Speaker 6: come in a little bit below the tempo, projection and 685 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,720 Speaker 6: efficiency probably won't be ultra high as well. So yeah, 686 00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:40,760 Speaker 6: I'm with you on the under. 687 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,640 Speaker 4: Yeah. I mean, Cris is a wild card because he's 688 00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:45,600 Speaker 4: gonna fight. If he's in there, he'll be firing up shot. 689 00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:47,760 Speaker 4: So if he's if he goes seven to ten for three, 690 00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:49,959 Speaker 4: obviously it could swing the game in the total. 691 00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:51,880 Speaker 3: By the way, so a couple people are asking why 692 00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:55,040 Speaker 3: does he have Carr on his jersey. That's because it's 693 00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:58,120 Speaker 3: a it's an abage to I know, it's a Steve 694 00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 3: Karr who played for Arizona, number twenty five. They actually 695 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:03,120 Speaker 3: unretired his number he requested and then he wears it, 696 00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,480 Speaker 3: and that he puts his first name car on his jersey. 697 00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 3: And his first name Car is actually because his Estonian 698 00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:10,959 Speaker 3: parents named him after Steve Caerr who played at Arizona. 699 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:12,800 Speaker 3: Now he's playing at Arizona wearing his jersey with his 700 00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:13,520 Speaker 3: name on the back. 701 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,520 Speaker 4: Of his jersey. It's a pretty crazy story, all right. 702 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,880 Speaker 4: Let's uh, I'm gonna go around the horn right now 703 00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,120 Speaker 4: and see if what we're gonna go. I don't know 704 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:22,920 Speaker 4: if if I told you guys, it's just one he 705 00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,320 Speaker 4: had a bike one bet for tomorrow, what would it be? 706 00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:26,040 Speaker 2: But before. 707 00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:28,920 Speaker 4: We'll give you a minute to think about it. Exercise 708 00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:30,520 Speaker 4: right now, you could just say I've not changed. This 709 00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 4: is what I'm thinking, Jim. I'll start with you as 710 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,080 Speaker 4: of right now, looking at the bracket, just based on 711 00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 4: what we've seen so far. Your prior is what you 712 00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:42,440 Speaker 4: were thinking before National champion and Championship matchup heading into 713 00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:43,240 Speaker 4: this weekend. 714 00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:45,719 Speaker 6: I will go with the two teams I had in 715 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,840 Speaker 6: the final at the pre tournament, Gonzaga and Arizona. The 716 00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:53,480 Speaker 6: master meets the apprentice in the coaching realm, and I 717 00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:57,800 Speaker 6: will go with Arizona in a narrow edge over Gonzaga, 718 00:32:57,800 --> 00:32:59,960 Speaker 6: mainly because I didn't think we'd see crease of back 719 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 6: as soon as we did, and I know he was bad, 720 00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:03,680 Speaker 6: but just the fact that he was able to get 721 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:05,520 Speaker 6: out there is a lot closer to being healthy than 722 00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:07,400 Speaker 6: I thought he would be at this point. I think 723 00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 6: he'll get closer as we go. I will go with 724 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,280 Speaker 6: Arizona narrowly over Gonzaga. 725 00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:17,360 Speaker 7: Okay, I'm sticking with my pre tournament bracket as well here. 726 00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:21,400 Speaker 7: I'm going with Gonzaga over Kansas in the National championship game. 727 00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,000 Speaker 7: It's high time Mark Few finally got it done. 728 00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:26,280 Speaker 4: By the way, yeah, you guys are I'm sticking with 729 00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:29,400 Speaker 4: my pre tournament, but my my finals matchup was gone 730 00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:32,840 Speaker 4: in day one, so I don't have that luxury of 731 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:37,320 Speaker 4: saying I'm sticking with mine. I'm gonna I'm gonna go. Man, 732 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,360 Speaker 4: there's something that tells me we're gonna get a duke run. 733 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,880 Speaker 4: But I'm gonna go Gonzaga, and I'm gonna go with you. 734 00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:47,680 Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with Kansas. I mean, they got they 735 00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:49,320 Speaker 4: have providence. I think it's gonna give them a game. 736 00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:51,440 Speaker 4: But then you know, they got winner of Iowa State 737 00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:55,480 Speaker 4: Miami Arizona. It's looked a little more vulnerable than I thought, 738 00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:58,000 Speaker 4: and if that game up and down, Kansas can play 739 00:33:58,000 --> 00:33:59,400 Speaker 4: with them. In an up and down game, that's where 740 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,560 Speaker 4: they thrive. I'm gonna I'm gonna say Kansas makes a 741 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,440 Speaker 4: Gonzago wins it. Matt, close this out here. What we got. 742 00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 5: I think I'm sticking with the Gonzaga Arizona My initial 743 00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:10,560 Speaker 5: take with Kenzaga cutting down the nets, but I think 744 00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:12,800 Speaker 5: you brought up the right Pointzon has like vulnerable. I 745 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,239 Speaker 5: think we need to maybe take a second look at 746 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,239 Speaker 5: what's going on with those front court rotations just sort 747 00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:21,640 Speaker 5: of the mini demise of two ballis lately and also bollow. 748 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:24,279 Speaker 5: I'd argue the three best teams, the most three most 749 00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:26,520 Speaker 5: likely teams, teams most capable of winning it all are 750 00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:28,879 Speaker 5: in the West right now, with Gonzaga, Duke in Texas Tech. 751 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,200 Speaker 5: If Duke or Texas Tech were on the opposite side, 752 00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,719 Speaker 5: I'd probably take them over Arizona right now. But the 753 00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,520 Speaker 5: racket is the way it is, so I'm sticking with Gonzaga. 754 00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:38,280 Speaker 5: Ver Zone at Gonzaga cutting down the nets. 755 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:43,880 Speaker 4: Kansas probably has the easiest path, which I'm factoring in 756 00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:47,080 Speaker 4: as well. But all right, let's go one round of 757 00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,160 Speaker 4: best bets. You just have to make one bet for tomorrow. 758 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,680 Speaker 4: Lines are tight, could be, it could be a live look, 759 00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:54,680 Speaker 4: could be a future art, wherever you want to go 760 00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:56,520 Speaker 4: with it. Jim, I'll start with you. 761 00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:00,200 Speaker 6: I think it's Texas Tech minus one for me. Just 762 00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:01,920 Speaker 6: I know Duke can get to the level that that 763 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,000 Speaker 6: we've discussed, and they had that high ceiling, but they 764 00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:08,200 Speaker 6: haven't faced the top forty defense since Gonzaga in November, 765 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:10,160 Speaker 6: and I think that's really going to be a rude 766 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:11,600 Speaker 6: awakening for a young team. It's used to kind of 767 00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,640 Speaker 6: getting what they want just via talent. I think they 768 00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,000 Speaker 6: will be really frustrated by that Texas Tech defense. So 769 00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:17,319 Speaker 6: Red Raiders minus one for me. 770 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,360 Speaker 5: Matt go in Arizona. I'll continue the theme of cautious 771 00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:24,759 Speaker 5: best bets. We cided the concerns of Arizona at nauseum, 772 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:26,440 Speaker 5: but I think that price is too cheap. I think 773 00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,200 Speaker 5: we're going to we all are snoozing on Arizona after 774 00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:29,799 Speaker 5: the TC game. 775 00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:30,880 Speaker 2: So Arizona minus one and. 776 00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:32,960 Speaker 4: A half cautious best bets if it wins. 777 00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:37,040 Speaker 2: That's right, we told you, we told you. 778 00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:38,399 Speaker 4: Cover your basis. Kai. 779 00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,719 Speaker 7: I'm with Jim, Texas Tech minus one. I think they 780 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:44,000 Speaker 7: can get it done against Duke. Love the short spread. 781 00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:46,799 Speaker 4: I'm gonna go. I'm gonna throw two out there, and 782 00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:51,480 Speaker 4: just because why not torture yourself all Thursday with two 783 00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:55,880 Speaker 4: unders Duke Texas Tech under I think the Duke's defense, 784 00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,200 Speaker 4: Duke's defense. I don't think that their issues, and I've 785 00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:00,359 Speaker 4: been yelling about them, are going to be completely here 786 00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:03,080 Speaker 4: by a Texas Tech offense that'll just go through many droughts. 787 00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:05,520 Speaker 4: And I don't think Duke's offense, but they have some talent. 788 00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:07,640 Speaker 4: They're gonna make some individual plays. They're gonna have to 789 00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:09,640 Speaker 4: make some threes, but they're gonna run into some walls. 790 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:11,479 Speaker 4: I think there's gonna be some big droughts in this game, 791 00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:16,160 Speaker 4: and I just don't see many paths to offense for both. 792 00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:18,200 Speaker 4: I think this turns into a half courk grinder. And 793 00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,759 Speaker 4: then on the other I'm gonna go Houston Arizona under 794 00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,160 Speaker 4: as well. I think the Houston will crawl this no 795 00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,440 Speaker 4: matter what. I think Arizona's gonna have to have more 796 00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:28,040 Speaker 4: focus on the offensive lets. They're gonna go bigger, They're 797 00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:31,200 Speaker 4: not gonna be as deadly in transition. I think Calvin 798 00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:34,120 Speaker 4: Sampson have a great game plan here. I think both 799 00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:37,000 Speaker 4: of those are half courk grinders. Sprinkle a little on 800 00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:41,120 Speaker 4: the first half under sweet sixteen. You could have either one. 801 00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:42,800 Speaker 4: I mean, these are it's not a fifteen points, but 802 00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,279 Speaker 4: these are gonna be close games. Most likely you could 803 00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:47,239 Speaker 4: get a lot of fouls late, so I always like 804 00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:50,359 Speaker 4: to protect us with a little bit sanity as well. 805 00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:53,880 Speaker 4: First half under. But yeah, two unders on Thursday night, 806 00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:57,040 Speaker 4: lots of fun. All right, that'll do it for us. 807 00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:00,800 Speaker 4: We will be back. I'll be back in short while 808 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:04,719 Speaker 4: for Part two with BJ County Game Colum Wilson Mike Calaberasy. 809 00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,600 Speaker 4: We'll preview the four Friday night games. But thanks to 810 00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:10,680 Speaker 4: the crew from Three Men Weave, Matt Cox, Comic Cue, 811 00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:13,600 Speaker 4: and the Jim Root for joining me to preview Thursday's games. 812 00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,880 Speaker 4: Make sure you follow them on Twitter. What's the what's there? 813 00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,880 Speaker 4: What I always forget? Everyone's underscores? There underscores in there, three. 814 00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:25,400 Speaker 6: MW underscore CBB is the main crew handle. That's the 815 00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:26,640 Speaker 6: main one to worry about. 816 00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:28,680 Speaker 4: Make sure you give them a follow, check out all 817 00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:31,160 Speaker 4: their great content and it's always Make sure you download 818 00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:34,080 Speaker 4: the orbiting action of our gap Big Bets on campus 819 00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:37,000 Speaker 4: wherever you listen to your podcast. Thanks for listening, Good 820 00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,240 Speaker 4: luck with your wagers, enjoy the rest of the madness 821 00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:41,319 Speaker 4: and let's get some puzzer beaters. Well, catch you all, 822 00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:47,600 Speaker 4: ad and cheers.