WEBVTT - Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson Talks Market Uncertainty

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>We're back with Morgan Stanley, CIO and chief US equity

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<v Speaker 2>strategist Mike Wilson. And Mike, you've been on a world tour.

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<v Speaker 2>You've been traveling a lot for work to see clients.

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<v Speaker 2>It's interesting to me that US strategists, even you, who

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<v Speaker 2>are kind of a known bear, think we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>still go up to sixty five hundred. All these European banks,

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<v Speaker 2>Barkley's and Ubs cutting their targets HSBC double downgrade. Did

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<v Speaker 2>they just see it differently than we do here?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I would say their path has been different, right,

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<v Speaker 3>So once again, I think majority of strategists and clients

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<v Speaker 3>came into the year probably too bullish about the kind

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<v Speaker 3>of the trajectory. And look, we overshot all of our

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<v Speaker 3>base case targets into last year. We talked about sixty

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<v Speaker 3>one hundred as our bowlcase. We were bullish at first

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<v Speaker 3>of all. We were bullish in the second fl last

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<v Speaker 3>year for very different reasons than most people. Most people

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<v Speaker 3>were bullish because everybody's saying, oh, the economy is great,

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<v Speaker 3>earnings are wonderful. No, what was going on was the

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<v Speaker 3>FED was cutting interest rates, Okay, there's an election that

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<v Speaker 3>we had a clean result in which caused a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of shortcovering and hedging coming off, and we had a

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<v Speaker 3>recession getting priced out from the summer, so we just overshot,

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<v Speaker 3>and then we have all these growth headwinds. So what

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<v Speaker 3>I what I view is I think this that I

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<v Speaker 3>think a lot of people are just catching up to

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<v Speaker 3>what's happened, and so now of course they're marking themselves

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<v Speaker 3>to market. We always had a fifty five hundred to

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<v Speaker 3>sixty one hundred target for the first half of the range.

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<v Speaker 3>For the first half of the year, we get the

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<v Speaker 3>low end of that range. So we've got to be

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<v Speaker 3>true to our original call. Once again. We can take

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<v Speaker 3>out fifty five hundred in a hard landing. Okay, we're

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<v Speaker 3>not there yet. I would say the risk of that

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<v Speaker 3>has gone up. It's probably thirty thirty five percent now,

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<v Speaker 3>is probably more like ten to twenty percent at the

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<v Speaker 3>beginning of the year. So that's what we're watching. We're

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<v Speaker 3>we're just being more tactical, I think than most people.

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<v Speaker 3>Once again, you know, clients right now don't care about

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<v Speaker 3>year end. They care about is making money in the

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<v Speaker 3>next quarter or two. That's our job, and so we've

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<v Speaker 3>been in the right sectors. We've been in the right

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<v Speaker 3>you know, factors for the most part, really for the

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<v Speaker 3>last year. And I'd like to say proof is in

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<v Speaker 3>the pudding, right. The numbers don't lie. Like our focus

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<v Speaker 3>list is up seven percent year to date, right, so

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<v Speaker 3>I mean that's pretty good. And over the last seven

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<v Speaker 3>years it's up eighty percent relative to the S and

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<v Speaker 3>P five hundred, So you know, those are the numbers, right,

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<v Speaker 3>The numbers don't lie, And because we had had the

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<v Speaker 3>right call and that's just in the last twelve months,

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<v Speaker 3>but really over the last seven years understanding what's really

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<v Speaker 3>going on in the economy and earnings, and understand policy

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<v Speaker 3>and the impact on valuation.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned that you're being tactical, and I want to

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<v Speaker 1>talk about how tactical you're actually being, because there was

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<v Speaker 1>a really interesting noteut from Julian Emmanuel from Evercore overnight.

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<v Speaker 1>He says, to buy options when the vix is low,

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<v Speaker 1>stocks when the vix is high. Are you that short

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<v Speaker 1>term that seems like a very specific narrow you have

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<v Speaker 1>to be quick on your feet there or are you

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<v Speaker 1>looking out when you say tactical maybe.

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<v Speaker 3>A month or two? Well, It depends on the client, right,

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<v Speaker 3>So most of our interaction now is with institutional clients

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<v Speaker 3>who have you know, timeframes from one day to two months.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, most people don't have month. I mean, they're

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<v Speaker 3>not trading their portfolio turning it over that much, but

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<v Speaker 3>they are looking to make money every month, and so

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<v Speaker 3>that's how we gauge it. So it's usually a thirty

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<v Speaker 3>day kind of window. And you know, we made this

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<v Speaker 3>call two weeks ago when we hit fifty five hundred.

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<v Speaker 3>Actually we got literally to the number, and since then

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<v Speaker 3>we have rallied to I think we could maybe rally

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<v Speaker 3>fifty nine hundred they or take. I don't think we

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<v Speaker 3>can go to new highs. You know, we're on record

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<v Speaker 3>saying it's going to be really hard for us to

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<v Speaker 3>go to new highs until Earning's revision breath not only

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<v Speaker 3>bottoms but actually gets in positive territory again. And I

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<v Speaker 3>think that's going to be challenging in the first half

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<v Speaker 3>of this year. Now, as I mentioned earlier, I think

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<v Speaker 3>in the second half, as investors have to look forward

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<v Speaker 3>to twenty twenty six, we could see revision factors start

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<v Speaker 3>to reaccelerate, and that will be when we could potentially

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<v Speaker 3>make new high sixty five hundred. Maybe it's the end

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<v Speaker 3>of the year, maybe it's early next year. Timing is

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<v Speaker 3>going to be uncertain, Mike.

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<v Speaker 4>My question is who's buying because the reality is s

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<v Speaker 4>and P five hundred is still down more than three

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<v Speaker 4>percent this year, the nasdack down almost six percent for

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<v Speaker 4>the year. Hedge fund across the street have been clobbered

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<v Speaker 4>through March, so I'm not quite sure what money they

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<v Speaker 4>have to buy, and so is there really dry powder

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<v Speaker 4>on the sidelines to buy into these dipths with conviction

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<v Speaker 4>when you still could be worried that you break under

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<v Speaker 4>that fifty five hundred.

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<v Speaker 3>So asset owners remain very active, whether that's retail pension funds.

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<v Speaker 3>In fact, there's a rebalancing going on this week. One

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<v Speaker 3>of the drivers for this rally in the last two

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<v Speaker 3>weeks has been rebalancing from bonds back towards stocks. So

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<v Speaker 3>and of course corporates are probably been the single biggest

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<v Speaker 3>buyer of stocks. And there hasn't been much supply, as

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<v Speaker 3>you know, the IPO calendar, equity calendar has been pretty light,

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<v Speaker 3>so we still have kind of a good supply and

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<v Speaker 3>demand balance that will change, like when would the asset

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<v Speaker 3>owners sell. The asset owners will sell when they think

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<v Speaker 3>there's a major trajectory change ie recession. Okay, I e.

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<v Speaker 3>The FED has to raise rates again because inflation is

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<v Speaker 3>really coming back. Neither one of those conditions is in

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<v Speaker 3>place yet. But those are your risks, right, That's what

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<v Speaker 3>we'll get the asset owner client to sell stocks. Is

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<v Speaker 3>you get hard landing or you get the AT having

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<v Speaker 3>to raise rates again.

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, so I always ask the same question

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<v Speaker 2>shanally because we always talk about retail is fully invested.

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<v Speaker 2>Foreign ownership of US stocks is at an all time high.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think it's a good point that corporates will

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<v Speaker 2>buy in this administration. They'll embrace that as opposed to

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<v Speaker 2>the previous administration. And we were talking during the break

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<v Speaker 2>about retail clients used to have sixty forty, right, forty

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<v Speaker 2>being bonds and now you're seeing more like seventy thirty

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<v Speaker 2>thirty being cash.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, well it's not seventy, it's low sixties. It's like

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<v Speaker 3>sixty two. The big loser has been bonds. So retail

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<v Speaker 3>investors who get a bad wrap are not that dumb.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, they basically have been letting their long duration

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<v Speaker 3>portfolio roll off, as bonds have been by far the

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<v Speaker 3>worst asset for the last several years. Now, could they

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<v Speaker 3>buy bonds again at some point, yeah, potentially, But.

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<v Speaker 2>Or they can buy stocks. Right if you look at

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<v Speaker 2>money market funds, we always pull up MMFA index on

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<v Speaker 2>the Bloomberg terminal. It's up and to the right. And

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<v Speaker 2>you know, any sucker can get four and a half

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<v Speaker 2>percent now in a Marcus account or whatever.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, So they have a barbelle they have. They are overweight,

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<v Speaker 3>they're a little bit higher than normal on stocks, okay,

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<v Speaker 3>and they're higher weight on short duration fixed income i e.

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<v Speaker 3>Cash in two years and in that sounds pretty smart

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<v Speaker 3>to me, like that that's been the right barbell high

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<v Speaker 3>quality stocks, okay, and short duration fixed income because you're

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<v Speaker 3>getting paid a real rate of return now for the

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<v Speaker 3>first time in like what fifteen twenty years. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>it's not bad. It's not a bad barber. And then

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<v Speaker 3>of course they're doing stuff in alternatives, whether it's private credit,

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<v Speaker 3>which you're getting a pretty good return still, maybe some

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<v Speaker 3>private equity, and of course they're in real estate.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't really have time for another question, but I

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<v Speaker 1>just don't understand the pitch to go out into bonds

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<v Speaker 1>when cash you're earning four percent what the ten year

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<v Speaker 1>treasure yield is at four and a half four point

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<v Speaker 1>three percent. I just I don't It doesn't make sense

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<v Speaker 1>why you would move out at all.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, our strategies are bullish on bonds now because growth

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<v Speaker 3>is slowing. The fat eventually will be cutting more and

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<v Speaker 3>that will work its way in. So we could see

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<v Speaker 3>we could see yields below four percent, maybe three and

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<v Speaker 3>a half, even without or sent And of course if

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<v Speaker 3>you get a recession, it's a great place to have

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<v Speaker 3>some some duration.

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<v Speaker 4>Mike, super nice to have you in studio today. That

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<v Speaker 4>is Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson