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Speaker 1: On this episode of News World. Should we be concerned

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Speaker 1: about North Korea and Kim Jongun's recent missile launches? On

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Speaker 1: October fourth, North Korea fired intermediate range ballistic missiles that

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Speaker 1: flew over Japan. In the North Korea launch would appear

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Speaker 1: to be two more short range ballistic missiles on Thursday morning,

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Speaker 1: the latest sign that it is intensifying its weapons program.

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Speaker 1: The launches marked the twenty fourth time this year that

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Speaker 1: North Korea has conducted missile test. The missile fired on

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Speaker 1: Tuesday was the first from North Korea to fly over

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Speaker 1: Japan in five years, triggering alarms across Japan's northern regions.

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Speaker 1: North Korea launched two short range of ballistic missiles that

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Speaker 1: landed on Thursday outside Japan's economic exclusion zone, according to

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Speaker 1: Japan's Defense Mindustry. They were launched from near Pyongyang, the

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Speaker 1: North Korean capital, toward the waters off the east coast,

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Speaker 1: according to the South Korean military. Here to discussed North

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Speaker 1: through his recent actions, I'm really pleased to welcome my guests,

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Speaker 1: David King. He is a non resident fellow at the

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Speaker 1: Quincy Institute and Maria Crutcher Professor of International Relations at

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Speaker 1: the University of Southern California. He's also director of the

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Speaker 1: USC Korean Studies Institute and vice chair of the Political

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Speaker 1: Science and International Relations Deplotment. David, you must be very busy.

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Speaker 1: It's fine, right. It gets more busy when something happens

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Speaker 1: with North Korea. So thanks for having me so. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we've been sort of living with the enigma of North

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Speaker 1: Korea since the armistice was signed in nineteen fifty three,

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Speaker 1: and sometimes it's quiet and sometimes it's active, and to

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Speaker 1: the best of my knowledge, nobody has any clue what

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Speaker 1: to do about unlocking it. And I'm curious for your stample.

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Speaker 1: What got you interested in North Korea? What to do

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Speaker 1: and why I'm interested are two different things. Why I'm

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Speaker 1: interested my father's actually from North Korea. He was born

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Speaker 1: in the northern part of Korea before it was divided,

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Speaker 1: and was one of the original refugees from the communist

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Speaker 1: regime in the late nineteen forties when it came south.

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Speaker 1: So I've always wanted to see where my father was

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Speaker 1: born and wondered about unification of the peninsula. Have you

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Speaker 1: been able to get access to North Korea. I've been

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Speaker 1: to Quisson, which is the city right across the border,

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Speaker 1: but I haven't gone any more than that, unfortunately. Was

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Speaker 1: that part of the industrial zone that they tried to develop, Yes,

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Speaker 1: that was when it was when the cooperation for about

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Speaker 1: I don't know, fifteen years, there was an industrial zone

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Speaker 1: that was put right across the demilitary zone between North

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Speaker 1: and South Korea. For a while, I had like five

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Speaker 1: hundred South Korean companies and so I was able to

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Speaker 1: go during the time when they were actively cooperating. North

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Speaker 1: shut it down a couple of years ago. Why do

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Speaker 1: you think they did that? Because I think it was

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Speaker 1: economically profitable. Yeah, it was working really well. My guess

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Speaker 1: is that the North Koreans were saying, we'll suffer any

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Speaker 1: kind of costs. We don't need this. It was viewed

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Speaker 1: as on our side, on the sort of American South

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Speaker 1: Korean side, this was viewed as the beginnings of capitalism

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Speaker 1: in North Korea. South Korean capital and companies using North

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Speaker 1: Korean labor, and they literally were having to help the

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Speaker 1: North Koreans learn what a modern bank is, how to

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Speaker 1: do banking, how to do transfer. So in many ways,

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Speaker 1: the whole goal was to expand markets in Korea, and

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Speaker 1: the North Koreans made a fair amount of money from it.

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Speaker 1: But I think that when the tensions began to rise

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Speaker 1: up under of late twenty sixteen twenty seventeen, and then

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Speaker 1: with a lot of stuff that went on in the

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Speaker 1: last couple of years, they decided that this was We'll

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Speaker 1: show you that we can suffer even these costs. We're

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Speaker 1: not going to let you push us around. It's a

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Speaker 1: real shame. I was struck a couple of years back

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Speaker 1: talking with people about the Northwest Territory in Pakistan, which

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Speaker 1: they have a proposal one point did build roads into it,

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Speaker 1: and the local leadership was bitterly, deeply opposed because they

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Speaker 1: understood the modernity would dissolve their world. It ceased to

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Speaker 1: be the world they controlled. And to some excent I

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Speaker 1: got to say, so, we keep trying to find a

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Speaker 1: way to get Kim jong gun to be like us,

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Speaker 1: and that ain't going to happen. What do you think

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Speaker 1: when he gets up in the morning, what's motivating him? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think when Kim Jong un wakes up in the morning,

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Speaker 1: I think he's completely focused on survival of his family

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Speaker 1: in the regime. The people in North Korea don't matter

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Speaker 1: to him. He wants the regime to survive, which means

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Speaker 1: basically his family. Beyond that, it is fairly clear that

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Speaker 1: Kim jong un wanted to take a different line from

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Speaker 1: his father. Kim Jong il, was very much about isolating

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Speaker 1: North Korea and keeping out any of these types of

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Speaker 1: Western or particularly capitalist ideas. Kim Jong un said in

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Speaker 1: one of his first New Year's Day speeches, which is

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Speaker 1: a big time for North Korean leaders to make po

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Speaker 1: he said North Korean shouldn't be hungry. He said they

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Speaker 1: shouldn't have to tighten their belts, and he wanted to

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Speaker 1: do both. He wanted a strong country nuclear weapons and

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Speaker 1: economic development, and it's very clear he tried that. But

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Speaker 1: it's also very clear that he's going to keep control

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Speaker 1: over that economic development, and that's where we see the

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Speaker 1: sort of step forward, step back, step forward, step back

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Speaker 1: in terms of economic opening in North Korea. In the

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Speaker 1: last administration, I would spend some time talking with the

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Speaker 1: various national security people, including the people at the CIA

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Speaker 1: who worked on North Korea, and it struck me as

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Speaker 1: listen to people talk part of the problem he has,

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Speaker 1: and I'd be curious to say if you think this

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Speaker 1: is accurate, if I'm totally off base here. But there

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Speaker 1: are a substantial number of people around him who have

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Speaker 1: dedicated their lives to achieving a formidable nuclear capability and

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Speaker 1: who have sacrificed large parts of the country in terms

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Speaker 1: of quality of life, people starving to death, having running

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Speaker 1: a police state, and were he to try to dramatically

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Speaker 1: change their policy, he actually would have an entire leadership

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Speaker 1: a leader around him that would be appalled because it

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Speaker 1: would be a repudiation of their lifetime of work. I mean,

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Speaker 1: does that make sense? In part? The part that I

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Speaker 1: agree with that is that there's way more domestic politics

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Speaker 1: in North Korea than we think. This is not simply

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Speaker 1: a ruler on top of twenty five million undifferentiated slaves.

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Speaker 1: There are bureaucracies and interests, and there is a ruling coterie,

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Speaker 1: and there are different beliefs about what they should do,

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Speaker 1: and that absolutely goes on. So he's not able to

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Speaker 1: necessarily just simply dictate things. He needs to make sure

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Speaker 1: that he's got very support and that there's a substantial

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Speaker 1: support for what he wants to do. That said, what

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Speaker 1: he clearly is trying to do is balance out those

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Speaker 1: various intrats. Much of what he's done in like we think.

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Speaker 1: Let me give you an example. We think the way

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Speaker 1: that the national Day or particularly came out sung his

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Speaker 1: grandfather's birthday. They have a big parade in Pyongyang. We

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Speaker 1: call those military parades because we focus on the twenty

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Speaker 1: minutes when they roll missiles by, or we look at

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Speaker 1: the tanks and the soldiers. But those parades are about

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Speaker 1: two hours long, and much of that has floats and

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Speaker 1: everything else about economic development. They're not military parade. It's

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Speaker 1: smart like the rose Bowl, where there's a bunch of

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Speaker 1: different things. So if you watch the whole parade, you

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Speaker 1: see what he's trying to tell his citizen, which is partly,

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Speaker 1: we're a strong country and we're not going to give

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Speaker 1: in to the Americans, particularly the Americans, but also we're

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Speaker 1: trying to move forward on economic reform because everybody realizes

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Speaker 1: that in North Korea. I mean, there's fair amount of

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Speaker 1: evidence that the North Korean leadership realizes that their country

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Speaker 1: is incredibly poor. I mean, everybody knows that. The question

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Speaker 1: is how you can have some kind of growth or

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Speaker 1: reform while retaining control. And what I find so interesting

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Speaker 1: about that is on the outside, we tend to believe,

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Speaker 1: as you just said, right we think that adding in

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Speaker 1: modernity markets more information about the outside world is dangerous

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Speaker 1: to the regime. If that's the case, we shouldn't be

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Speaker 1: sanctioning them. We should be pushing that stuff over the border. Right.

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Speaker 1: We shouldn't be the one stopping economic interaction with North Crew.

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Speaker 1: We should force them to be doing it instead of

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Speaker 1: doing it ourselves. If somebody once said that they years

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Speaker 1: and years ago, and this may have been apocryphal, it

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Speaker 1: was in Reader's Digest, but that the years and years

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Speaker 1: ago in Panama, they had a period where the workers

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Speaker 1: had bought everything they thought they needed, and so there

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Speaker 1: was a real drop off and participation rate, And so

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Speaker 1: they sent Sears Roebuck catalogs, and six months later the

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Speaker 1: workforce was dramatically more intense, and they had found a

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Speaker 1: whole new generation of things they wanted to buy. Do

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Speaker 1: you think if we followed a prosperity strategy that they

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Speaker 1: would in fact put the brakes on in the North

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Speaker 1: because they would realize that was dissolving and undermining the

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Speaker 1: intensity of the system. I think that there are limits

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Speaker 1: to that. I certainly think that there is a way

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Speaker 1: that we can affect positively the human rights in North

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Speaker 1: Korea by having more economic interaction with them, by expanding markets,

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Speaker 1: and by helping the poorest people. As you said, they're

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Speaker 1: the ones that are suffering from the regime. Right, doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter how much we squeeze North Korea. This small elite

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Speaker 1: is probably going to be fine, as it is in

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Speaker 1: any country. So in many ways, I think expanding that

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Speaker 1: type of trade can only help the lives of ordinary

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Speaker 1: North Korean citizens. I'm more skeptical though, over time, I

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Speaker 1: become much more skeptical that this will lead to a

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Speaker 1: radical awakening of political descent in North Korea, because on

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Speaker 1: the outside, we tend to think that, as you said,

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Speaker 1: buying stuff from Sea's Roebuck leads to this set of

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Speaker 1: decisions or thoughts in people that's I want more stuff.

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Speaker 1: My government can't get me more stuff. They must be bad.

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Speaker 1: Therefore I want to get rid of them. And that's

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Speaker 1: a lot of steps to go right. A lot of

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Speaker 1: times it can become I want to become rich. I

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Speaker 1: want more than I have. Now, this is great, we

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Speaker 1: want to expand markets. But he's still a good leader

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Speaker 1: or I don't care about he keeps us safe. Those

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Speaker 1: two I think can exist, and so I would still

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Speaker 1: advocate for doing everything we can to expand trade and

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Speaker 1: particularly information in North Korea. I think it's a little

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Speaker 1: bit less likely or would take a lot longer for

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Speaker 1: that to translate into actual political dissent, But I still

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Speaker 1: think we should be doing it candidly. Being part of

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Speaker 1: my view would be not so much too convince them

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Speaker 1: towards liberalization. Has to just give them a higher incentive

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Speaker 1: not to have a nuclear war. And that's also totally

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Speaker 1: the case right right now. Stability on the cran Peninsula

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Speaker 1: arrests purely on military deterrence. So they shoot these missiles,

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Speaker 1: as you said, twenty four this year. I think the

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Speaker 1: highest number they ever tested was like fifty six in

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Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, something like that, right, like one a week, poo.

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Speaker 1: And then we do stuff like we just sent an

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Speaker 1: aircraft carrier through the EC right to the east of

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Speaker 1: Korea as a show of strength. We fly our bombers

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Speaker 1: b two bombers. This is all shows of force and

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Speaker 1: muscle flexing. You better watch out. In many ways, that's

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Speaker 1: a thin type of stability. Though if it's founded on

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Speaker 1: much deeper integration with world markets, there's a lot more

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Speaker 1: reason for North Koreans to be cautious about upsetting that,

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Speaker 1: and we barely got started. The Kesong Industrial Complex was

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Speaker 1: a step in that direction, but it barely got started.

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Speaker 1: I mean that was very peripheral. It was very closed off.

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Speaker 1: The North Koreans had a fence around it on their side,

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Speaker 1: so this was very controlled on the North Korean side,

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Speaker 1: and it didn't actually expand to the whole country. Hi,

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Speaker 1: nation on Earth. Here's a special offer for my podcast listeners.

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Speaker 1: Slash book To order your copy now, Order it today

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Speaker 1: at gingwishtree sixty dot com slash book. If the purpose

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Speaker 1: of their nuclear program, which is very impressive and which

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Speaker 1: I think has probably helped the or Indians and others,

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Speaker 1: if the purpose is to protect their survival, it's one

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Speaker 1: kind of system. If the purpose is to ultimately enable

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Speaker 1: them to conquer the South, it's a very different kind

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Speaker 1: of system. In your analysis, to what extent are they

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Speaker 1: essentially defensive and to what extent do we have to

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Speaker 1: really worry that they might come south given how close

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Speaker 1: they are to the I mean souls only an hour's

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Speaker 1: drive from the border, thirty miles or so. Yeah, here's

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Speaker 1: the thing about that. It's always put as an either

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Speaker 1: or I think it's actually both. And what I mean

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Speaker 1: by that is both North and South Korea would like

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Speaker 1: to unify the whole peninsula, make it one Korea again.

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Speaker 1: The South Koreans would like to do it. They're just

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Speaker 1: not willing to start a war to do it. If

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Speaker 1: it sort of happens, we can talk about that later.

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Speaker 1: But you know, there's all this discussion about whether the

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Speaker 1: South Koreans want unification or not. That's not a choice

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Speaker 1: it's not like anyone's giving them a choice. If North

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Speaker 1: Korea collapses, South Korea will take it, right, but they're

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Speaker 1: not willing to start a war. So of course North

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Speaker 1: would like this. As I said, it should be one country, right,

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Speaker 1: it was one country for since like six hundred eighty.

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Speaker 1: I should be able to fly into Soul, get in

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Speaker 1: a car, drive two hours and see where my father

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Speaker 1: was born. So both sides would like it. The question

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Speaker 1: is is it worth the cost of trying to start

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Speaker 1: a second Korean war? I think right now the North

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Speaker 1: has very little actual belief that they could start a

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Speaker 1: war and conquer the South. The military balance that the

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Speaker 1: North Korean military is so old what we're seeing right now,

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Speaker 1: and here's a good example of that. Right. Nuclear coercion

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Speaker 1: is not helping Russia with Ukraine very much. Nukes aren't

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Speaker 1: good for coursing people are conquering things. They're really only

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Speaker 1: good for deterring other countries from using them against you,

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Speaker 1: which is why we're very careful about getting involved in

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Speaker 1: the war with Russia. So I don't think that helps

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Speaker 1: them conquer the South. And even if they had them,

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Speaker 1: their conventional military is way poor. Older they're using tanks

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Speaker 1: from the nineteen fifties, So I don't think it's realistic

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Speaker 1: that they're sitting there thinking is today the day we

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Speaker 1: go over the border. It does help them protect from

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Speaker 1: against what they think is a pushy or a bully.

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Speaker 1: They know Americans would like regime change. We would. I'd

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Speaker 1: love for it to change. We're just not willing to

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Speaker 1: start a war. As I said, we're not willing to

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Speaker 1: start a war because we know how bloody it would be.

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Speaker 1: So the deterrence is what keeps them there, the stability.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think that they could use that or

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Speaker 1: are thinking to use that to somehow. Next year they're

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Speaker 1: going to try and make a play for soul. Well,

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Speaker 1: to some extent, the failure of the Russian military they

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Speaker 1: also been a very sobering reminder that the stuff's really hard.

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Speaker 1: We make it look sort of easy, but it's really hard, yes,

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Speaker 1: especially when they're using Russian equipment. Right. But along the

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Speaker 1: same line, I was told at one time that when

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Speaker 1: the South Korea has looked at the cost to West

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Speaker 1: Germany of absorbing and modernizing East Germany, and then they

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Speaker 1: looked at how much bigger North Korea would be as

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Speaker 1: a challenge than East Germany was that there was sort

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Speaker 1: of a hope they actually didn't want the regime to

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Speaker 1: collapse because they didn't want to screw up their own

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Speaker 1: prosperity by having to absorb all their relatives who, as

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Speaker 1: you point out, don't know how to do banking, don't

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Speaker 1: know how to operate in the modern world, and that

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Speaker 1: it would be really expensive to try to modernize North Korea. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: every pole that you do in South Korea says, you know,

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Speaker 1: if they say do you want unification or whatever, it's

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Speaker 1: it overwhelmingly they're like, no, put it off, too expensive.

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Speaker 1: The thing about that is, as I said, I said briefly,

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Speaker 1: like you know, that's not the question they'll ever be asked.

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Speaker 1: And so the real question they should ask, and I've

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Speaker 1: wanted somebody to do this for an opinion poll, is

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Speaker 1: like if North Korea collapse, And what they mean by

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Speaker 1: that as well, is that so the South Korean government

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Speaker 1: is working to prepare for unification, you know, it has planned,

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Speaker 1: but is not actively trying to undermine the North Korean regime,

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Speaker 1: I mean their limits. But the real question that needs

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Speaker 1: to be asked is if North Korea collapses, who gets

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Speaker 1: it because the only way realistically now that there's going

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Speaker 1: to be unification is that somehow the North Korean regime implodes,

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Speaker 1: because the South isn't going to start a war, you know,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think there's a negotiated settlement. And this

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Speaker 1: is the way that poll should be done. You ask

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Speaker 1: all the South Koreans, if North Korea collapses, who should

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Speaker 1: get it? A China, be Japan, you see Russia or

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Speaker 1: d South Korea. I guarantee you everyone will say, well,

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Speaker 1: we'll take it. Right if you ask South Koreans a

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Speaker 1: draw map, like if you ask children to draw map,

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Speaker 1: what does the Korean peninsula look like? It goes the

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Speaker 1: whole way up to the Yalu River. They don't cut

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Speaker 1: it off, right, they know that's Korea. And that's the question.

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Speaker 1: It's like if it collapses, they don't want the Chinese together,

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Speaker 1: They certainly don't want the Japanese together. They say, we'll

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Speaker 1: take it. And the thing is, I used to be

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Speaker 1: a lot more optimistic that the regime would collapse. I

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Speaker 1: didn't think the regime could survive Kim Il sung's death,

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Speaker 1: the grandfather's death, and then they just kept going. And

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Speaker 1: then I thought, well, maybe Kim Joe l he and

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Speaker 1: his son might once he died. And then this young,

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Speaker 1: untrained guy, and you know he's in what twelve He's

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Speaker 1: been ruining for twelve years now, So I'm a lot

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Speaker 1: less optimistic. I guess that the regime is going to collapse.

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Speaker 1: I was in Korea in August and went back to

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Speaker 1: the War Museum, which I think is an astonishing facility,

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Speaker 1: and it reminds you that it's all of Korea. You

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Speaker 1: go back to medieval Korean history. They're fighting the Japanese

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Speaker 1: on one front, the Chinese on the other front, and

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Speaker 1: there's a real sense of being the hermit kingdom that

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Speaker 1: they don't want these two countries gobbling them up. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and in that sense, I think probably binds a sense

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Speaker 1: of Korean nous, both North and South. I've been told,

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Speaker 1: and i'd be hereciate your reaction. I've been told that

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Speaker 1: the Chinese actually have much less influence than we think

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Speaker 1: they do. In fact, I've had Chinese government officials tell

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Speaker 1: me you guys are delusional. They don't pay any attention

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Speaker 1: to us either. What's your sense of that? Absolutely right,

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Speaker 1: China has more influence on North Korea than any other country.

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Speaker 1: And it has far less influenced than we think it does.

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Speaker 1: And a good example it's just the twentieth Chinese Communist

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Speaker 1: Party meeting is happening now essentially, and North Korea shot

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Speaker 1: off a bunch of missiles. That is, you know, almost

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Speaker 1: a direct slap in the face to Shijinping or the

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Speaker 1: Chinese Communist Party. Probably the best way that I think

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Speaker 1: about North Korea is they're Koreans first and foremost. We

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Speaker 1: always say is that a communist regime is a communist monarchism.

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Speaker 1: They're Korean. They view themselves as the real Korean who

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Speaker 1: are protecting what it means to be Korea. They even

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Speaker 1: use their name. The Korean name is Chosun, which is

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Speaker 1: the name of the old dynasty that was from thirteen

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Speaker 1: nine two to nineteen ten. They would draw direct link

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Speaker 1: we're the Koreans and we're willing to suffer a little

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Speaker 1: bit if that's what it takes. The South Koreans are

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Speaker 1: the ones that sold out just to get rich for

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Speaker 1: thirty pieces of silver, but we're willing to fight. So

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Speaker 1: they viewed themselves very much as a nationalist country, and

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Speaker 1: the South and North tend to agree on a bunch

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Speaker 1: of things like those disputed islands. Those are Korean, right,

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Speaker 1: you know, Toko, you know with Japan, right, they view

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Speaker 1: them very similarly. And China. You know, Korea existed next

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Speaker 1: to China since the sixth century, so for a thousand,

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Speaker 1: three hundred years, and they existed thereby being able to

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Speaker 1: get along with China and by pushing back on China.

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Speaker 1: And both of those exist at the same time. And

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Speaker 1: the North Koreans are very very good at that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: So China does have, you know, some influence, but not

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Speaker 1: nearly the type that we think that they do. I

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Speaker 1: have a sense that they've always been repaired to fight

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Speaker 1: if they had to, but they would rather pay tribute,

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Speaker 1: which is how they dealt with the Chinese on a

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Speaker 1: regular basis. I'm curious about your view of the regime.

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Speaker 1: As you said, I mean, it was purely an accent

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Speaker 1: of history that was divided after World War Two, and

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Speaker 1: then it was to some extent an accent of history

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Speaker 1: that we responded when they attacked in nineteen fifty. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you can imagine easily a circumstance where we did not

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Speaker 1: respond and that had all sorts of secondary impacts, including

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Speaker 1: our relationship with Mauzi Dung and Communis China. But I'm curious,

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Speaker 1: do you see the family regimes surviving beyond Kim Jong

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Speaker 1: un or do you see a larger structural power that

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Speaker 1: surrounds him that would survive even without the family. I

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Speaker 1: actually don't know as he married and does they have kids? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: oh yeah. Every now and then his wife shows up.

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Speaker 1: We don't know that much about her. So there are

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Speaker 1: successors to be trained, ostensibly sort of the Prince Charles

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Speaker 1: of the North Korean dictatorship. Here's a little bit about

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Speaker 1: how I try and explain the North Korean regime, because

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Speaker 1: when I say it's a Korean regime or it's a

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Speaker 1: Korean country up there, it is a Klan based society.

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Speaker 1: Korea is clan based. All the big South Korean companies

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Speaker 1: like Samsung, Kia, LG, they're all family based, and they're

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Speaker 1: all by now on their third generation. Right. So this

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Speaker 1: is a multi billion dollar company, Samsung, it's got stocks

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Speaker 1: and everything else. But it's unthinkable that someone from the

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Speaker 1: family is not in charge. And ej Young is the

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Speaker 1: grandson of the founder. I mean, this is a very

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Speaker 1: Korean trade. So the North Koreans are now in the

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Speaker 1: third generation is not different. It's deeply Korean that way, right,

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Speaker 1: So that's how they view things. One of the differences

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Speaker 1: between him and his father, Kim Joe Mill is Kim

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Speaker 1: Joe Mill was clearly sort of an introvert. He didn't

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Speaker 1: like appearing in public. If there's photos a video of

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Speaker 1: him at like a state dinner and like he's not talking,

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Speaker 1: he's sort of pushing the peas around on his play.

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Speaker 1: His son is very much like his grandfather, who was

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Speaker 1: a charismatic Most politicians are charismatic leaders. They love people, right,

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Speaker 1: and he was determined to show difference. We never saw

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Speaker 1: Kim Jong il's wife or blah blah blah. He would

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Speaker 1: walk around with his wife, he would waves. We have

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Speaker 1: photos of Kim Jong un hugging you know, his generals

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Speaker 1: or whatever. Like he was really charismatic. His wife appeared

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Speaker 1: and then she disappeared to one and there was so

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Speaker 1: many rumors about North Korea round but like he hated her.

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Speaker 1: He put her in exile, and you know, a week

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Speaker 1: later she shows up again. Right, we don't know almost

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Speaker 1: anything about that family, but they clearly have a family.

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Speaker 1: And you know, Kim Yo jong, his sister is clearly powerful.

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Speaker 1: So there's a ton of speculation about what would happen

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Speaker 1: if he does have a heart attack. I mean, that

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Speaker 1: guy needs to go on and diet. He's actually done better.

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Speaker 1: But didn't his father actually send him to Switzerland for

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Speaker 1: finishing school. He was in Switzerland sometime in I think

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Speaker 1: middle school for a couple of years or something like that.

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Speaker 1: I remember talking to somebody who had known him or

429
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 1: had seen him there, and they said he always had

430
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 1: handlers around him, he always was at school. And then

431
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:13,919
Speaker 1: they pulled him away, right, And so a lot of

432
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 1: the belief that being westernized would change him again, that

433
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 1: shows the limits of that. He loves basketball. We all

434
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: joke about Dennis Rodman going, but he had initially reached out,

435
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 1: as I understand, and he wanted just regular NBA stars

436
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 1: to come in. Rodman was the only one who would come.

437
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 1: I've talked to Franklin Graham, who has run a very

438
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 1: big food program in North Korean. He said, I just

439
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 1: loves basketball. Yeah, right, you can love Western culture and

440
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 1: still thumb your nose in America. It didn't really change it.

441
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:49,959
Speaker 1: That's a little bit like the same from the Producers,

442
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 1: where the guy says you know Hitler was a great dancer,

443
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,679
Speaker 1: has no meaning in the real world. Why do you

444
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 1: think they've suddenly gone through this cycle in the last

445
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 1: few weeks of sort of showing off. I would put

446
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 1: it in a slightly larger context, which is there's three

447
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 1: various causes that tend to play into when North Korea

448
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 1: does tests. We tend to focus only on the first one,

449
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 1: which is they're sending some kind of a message to

450
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 1: the outside world, like how dare they do it before

451
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,360
Speaker 1: the twentieth Card Party Congress, etc. Are they're showing something

452
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 1: to the United States? That's one. The second one is

453
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 1: there's internal politics where they will do tests or do various,

454
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 1: you know, actions for domestic politics of some type. And

455
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 1: then the third reason is simply the technical pace at

456
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,639
Speaker 1: which you get these things ready to go right. In

457
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 1: other words, one thing that we tend to ignore. South

458
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:47,200
Speaker 1: Korea tried to send off a ballistic missile in response

459
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,120
Speaker 1: to show what they can do, and it failed miserably.

460
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 1: I shouldn't laugh. It went backwards and almost killed people. Right.

461
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 1: That's why we do it, and that's why they do it.

462
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:58,159
Speaker 1: You want to test these things. There's a technical reason

463
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 1: why you want to test your missiles and make sure

464
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,919
Speaker 1: they'll do what you want them to do. And that

465
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 1: isn't something you just do want to spur the moment.

466
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 1: You have to set it up and you know, something

467
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: happens and then they say, Okay, why did it fail

468
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 1: this way? Why did it fail that way? And then

469
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 1: they try and get better. So there's three things going

470
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 1: on at the same time. We have been expecting a

471
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 1: seventh nuclear test for I've been hearing about that all year.

472
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 1: Everyone says, oh, are they going to test? They're going

473
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 1: to test a seventh nuclear device just to show the Americans.

474
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 1: I say, maybe, right, maybe they talk right now, they're

475
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 1: all ready to go. The satellite photos look at the

476
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,640
Speaker 1: place we think they would test a nuclear bomb, and oh,

477
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 1: they're ready to go. Maybe there's a technical reason they

478
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 1: want to test. Then they probably have a political reason

479
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 1: for domestic and then there's what they're sending to us.

480
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 1: So my sense is this doesn't strike me as that

481
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 1: much different than they're testing a whole bunch of these mentals.

482
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 1: I've been saying, well, sure, maybe for the last year.

483
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 1: I've been saying they're going to test a seventh nuclear

484
00:26:56,040 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 1: At least theill haven't done it. So we talk about

485
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 1: whether or not we have a nuclear presence in Korea

486
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 1: and all that. It is twenty eight minutes from minut

487
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:28,159
Speaker 1: North Dakota to Pyongyang. As long as we invest in

488
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 1: our strategic capabilities, we have a permanent presence without having

489
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 1: to have anything in South Korea. And I just find

490
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 1: it fascinating that we get trapped into these bureaucratic fights

491
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 1: that I think don't necessarily fit the real world or

492
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 1: make much sense. You know, there've been this long period

493
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 1: of you don't want to make the North Korean dictatorship

494
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,360
Speaker 1: feel good, you don't want to honor them, etc. Then

495
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,199
Speaker 1: Trump comes along and has three different meetings with Kim Tonga.

496
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:03,400
Speaker 1: In retrospect, was that a reasonable gamble on Trump's part

497
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 1: or was that a mistake He should have done it.

498
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,640
Speaker 1: That was a massive missed opportunity. Let me first say

499
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 1: something about the nukes thill, because I've been saying that forever. Right,

500
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 1: even for the B two bombers, they take off somewhere

501
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:21,639
Speaker 1: in like Iowa, refuel over the Pacific fly past, the DMZ, turnaround,

502
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 1: refuel and go home. It's extraordinary the amount of a

503
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 1: military might the United States has and the North Koreans know,

504
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,360
Speaker 1: they're not like, well, they don't have nukes right here

505
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 1: that we can get away with it. It's extraordinary the

506
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 1: amount of power the American can bring to bear if

507
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 1: we need to right on the Trump's summit and here,

508
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:41,479
Speaker 1: I guarantee you know more about what actually went on

509
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 1: than me. That was a massive missed opportunity. It shows

510
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 1: that the North Koreans are willing, or Kim Jonan is

511
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 1: willing to try and negotiate with the United States if

512
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 1: he thinks there's a realistic chance that the US will

513
00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 1: change what happened was. If you want to talk about

514
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 1: the domestic politics, imagine when he says to all those people,

515
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 1: I'm going to try and make an agreement with the Americans,

516
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 1: and they'll be like, you mourn, We've done it a

517
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: dozen times. They're totally untrustworthy. The Americans will always change

518
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: their minds. They don't. They are out to get bubble,

519
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 1: you know. Imagine how much political capital he had to

520
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 1: put out to go and potentially be humiliated to try

521
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 1: and make it kind of a deal. But he did it.

522
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 1: By the time we got to Vietnam, the Hanois Summit,

523
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 1: here was the thing what was on tap. And again

524
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 1: I'm sure you know more about what went on the

525
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 1: inside than me from the outside. On tap or on

526
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 1: the menu, was a small deal some sanctions relief from

527
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 1: the US side for the Young Gun nuclear facility, which

528
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 1: is symbolic and actually functionally important because they are making

529
00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 1: bumbs from Young Gun today. It's not just symbolic, right,

530
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 1: And they were going to shut that down, and we

531
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 1: were going to give some sanctions relief, and that was

532
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: the question. It was so far down the path that

533
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:04,239
Speaker 1: we were going to be dismantling Young Gun that I

534
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 1: know some people at the nuclear labs in Livermore and

535
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 1: loss Alamos and they were asking the physicists. They were saying, look,

536
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:14,040
Speaker 1: you guys, think about it, because we're going to need

537
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 1: people to go for combat pay for three to six

538
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 1: months at a time, so let's get ready to do

539
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 1: this to dismantle that facility. That's how far the American

540
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 1: side was down the track. At Hannoy, somebody went big.

541
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 1: Somebody said no, no, not small for small, and let's

542
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 1: go in the right direction and build from there. I

543
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 1: want it all. I've heard some people say that Kim

544
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: came in and said no, I want all sanctions relief,

545
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 1: and that I've heard other people say, you know, the

546
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 1: whole Bolton thing, blah blah blah, go for it all.

547
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,479
Speaker 1: You've got the leverage, get him to give it all up.

548
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 1: I don't know, but if we had done small for small,

549
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 1: we would be in such a different place today. There

550
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 1: would be Americans there right now in young gun dismantling.

551
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 1: And you know young gun is dangerous, not just because

552
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 1: they can make fistile material out of it, it's an

553
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 1: environmental health hazard for the entire region. I would say

554
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 1: I am very much in favor of moving the right

555
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 1: direction as opposed to the wrong direction. Right, should Biden

556
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 1: be prepared to come back at so as president a

557
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 1: dictator because as you know, the State Department bias against

558
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 1: that is enormous. Yes, there is. Everybody was against it.

559
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 1: There is a DC blobs or everybody was opposed except me.

560
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 1: I was out there cheering on right, Like, here's what

561
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 1: I would have done different than Trump. I would have

562
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: been way more prepared, right, but whatever, you know, that's quibbling, right, Yes,

563
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 1: there's only two ways that this is going to get resolved.

564
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 1: One is we're going to start a war, or you know,

565
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 1: they're going to collapse something lucky or unlucky, or there

566
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 1: will be some type of negotiated settlement. There's only two things.

567
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,959
Speaker 1: Either you're gonna figure out a way to get some

568
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 1: better relationship with his regime and move in the right direction,

569
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 1: or you're just going to sit here. We are in

570
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 1: the same place today that we were in nineteen forty five.

571
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 1: There is no change except they have some nuclear weapon, right.

572
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 1: And the contrast, just a brief contrast here with Taiwan

573
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 1: China is no matter what you think about Taiwan China,

574
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 1: it is so much more stable. They're flying back and forth,

575
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 1: they're investing, you can call, you can visit their two

576
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 1: million tourists a year. They have made progress in China

577
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 1: Taiwan that is completely absent in Korea, and that is

578
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 1: a tragedy. But it may also be harder to do

579
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 1: with the very structure of the North Korean dictatorship. Unfortunately. Yes,

580
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 1: and that's why I think it was a mistake, because

581
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 1: he was willing to meet, He was even willing to

582
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: go out of Korea. I thought that was astonishing. Yeah.

583
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 1: Do you think that Trumps symbolically stepping over the line

584
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 1: had any meeting in the North. Oh, absolutely right. These

585
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 1: things are super important that they would show in many

586
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 1: ways treating North Korea like a real country. You know,

587
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 1: come on, right, We deal with a lot of countries

588
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 1: we don't like, but we can still actually treat them

589
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 1: as a country. We think South Korea is a real country.

590
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:11,479
Speaker 1: It has a flag, it's got a leader. North Korea

591
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 1: is a real country. They have a government in people,

592
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: and we should deal with them as a country. And

593
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 1: I don't see the slightest problem with that. Let me

594
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 1: go back to one thing you'd said earlier, because I

595
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 1: want to draw a parallel to a point you'd made

596
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 1: about how Pyongyang would see yourself as defending Korean nous

597
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: as its relatives to the South sellout and are corrupted

598
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 1: if you listen to Putin, if you listen to the Ayatollah,

599
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 1: if you listen to the Taliban. I think as America

600
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 1: as we tend to forget that our concept of a

601
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 1: liberal rule of law, capitalist culture that is wide open

602
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 1: and permitting individual behaviors is actually seen as an enormous

603
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 1: threat by huge sections of the planet. Not something they

604
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:02,959
Speaker 1: want to migrate to, but something they're terrified of because

605
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 1: it literally would dissolve their world. I mean, does that

606
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 1: make sense to you? Yes? Absolutely right. I show the

607
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:12,840
Speaker 1: symbolism of this for your listeners. If they google Korean

608
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:17,720
Speaker 1: Workers Party, up will come the insignia. The communist insignia

609
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 1: like every Chinese communist party soviets all have a hammer

610
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 1: and a sickle, right, the hammer is industrial and sickle

611
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 1: is like the peasants. The North Korean insignia has three things.

612
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 1: It doesn't have two. It's got the hammer in the sickle,

613
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 1: and it's got this third thing. And I always tell

614
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 1: when I do a talk, I'll say, what is that

615
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:37,840
Speaker 1: third thing? And people it looks like a candle, it

616
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 1: looks like a spear, And I say, eventually we get around.

617
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 1: It's a Confucian scholars brush. There is nothing more about

618
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 1: traditional Korea than a Confucian scholar writing poetry and studying

619
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 1: the classics. And it's right there in the communist insignia.

620
00:34:55,280 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 1: It's huge. They are saying we are traditional Korea. We're

621
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 1: also communists, but we're a traditional Korean. It's right there,

622
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 1: and that's not just propaganda. That's how they view themselves

623
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:12,880
Speaker 1: sort of big Korean, small communist. Yes, yes, it's right there,

624
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,360
Speaker 1: and If you understand that, you can see the worldview

625
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:18,319
Speaker 1: and you can see why people may not like that

626
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:20,879
Speaker 1: government particularly, but they're still proud to be Korean. They're

627
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 1: incredibly proud to be Korean. You know so much and

628
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 1: you're so current, David. I want to thank you for

629
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 1: joining me and helping all of us who are listening

630
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 1: understand the nature of North Korea and the challenges of

631
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 1: North Korea. I hope in the future, as this continues

632
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 1: to evolve, we can continue this conversation someday that would

633
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 1: be delightful. Thank you so much for having me. This

634
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 1: is really really enjoyable. Thank you, Thank you to my guests,

635
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 1: David Kang. You can learn more about North Korea's recent

636
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 1: missile launches on our show page at newsworld dot com.

637
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 1: News World is produced by Gingwish Street sixty and iHeartMedia.

638
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 1: Our executive producers Garnsey Sloan, Our producer is Rebecca Howell,

639
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 1: and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the

640
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:10,319
Speaker 1: show was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the

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