WEBVTT - Beating The Book: Warren Sharp, 2020 NFL Strength of Schedule Analysis 0:00:01.120 --> 0:00:11.440 Uh, check it down, man, now down. Then it's the 0:00:11.480 --> 0:00:15.920 Beating the Book Podcast. Still at rand Warren Sharp is 0:00:15.960 --> 0:00:18.720 the guest today kind enough to join us as he 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:20.560 does each and every year right about this time, to 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:24.320 talk about strength of schedule in the upcoming National Football 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:26.920 League season. We'll talk about the easiest and the toughest 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:30.479 overall schedules, the easiest and the toughest starts, and a 0:00:30.560 --> 0:00:33.559 whole bunch of different details, whole bunch of different angles 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:38.080 within the scope of the National Football League schedule. Think 0:00:38.080 --> 0:00:40.120 you'll enjoy this, A lot of good tidbits to file 0:00:40.159 --> 0:00:44.320 away for when, if, and when we have the National 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:52.120 Football League season. Warren Sharp, enjoy Welcome back to a 0:00:52.240 --> 0:01:00.160 numbers game with Jill Alexander. It is our number two 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:02.240 of a numbers game right here at Visa the sports 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:05.080 betting network, Gil Alexander Serious x M Channel two oh four, 0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:08.759 Visa dot Com, the Visa app, Bobos Link Game plus First. 0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:11.360 This is always a treat. We do this about this 0:01:11.440 --> 0:01:14.120 time every year with this gentleman. Uh. You can find 0:01:14.160 --> 0:01:17.759 him on Twitter at sharp football, but really the sites 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:20.800 are great. Sharp football stats dot Com, Sharp football Analysis 0:01:20.840 --> 0:01:23.720 dot Com puts out a preview guide every year for 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:26.480 the National Football League season. But it's the strength of 0:01:26.520 --> 0:01:28.679 schedule this time of year that we always have him 0:01:28.680 --> 0:01:30.479 come in on and he is kind enough to do so. 0:01:30.600 --> 0:01:33.679 Yet again, it's our buddy, Warren Sharp. Good morning, Warren. 0:01:33.680 --> 0:01:36.760 How are you doing man? I'm doing great. You know 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:40.400 how are you? I'm doing well. We have a beautiful 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:41.920 photo of you. I know you get a lot of 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:44.760 a lot of flak for the mustache, but I appreciate 0:01:44.800 --> 0:01:49.080 the fact that you're still rocking it. Still rocking it, um, 0:01:49.280 --> 0:01:52.200 enjoying it. Uh, you don't see it if I'll leave 0:01:52.240 --> 0:01:54.320 the house with my map. You don't see it if 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:56.880 I leave the house with my mask on. But that's 0:01:56.880 --> 0:01:59.160 why I don't leave the house. Technically, I'm staying right 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:02.080 here and say, can sound inside? Yeah, I don't know 0:02:02.080 --> 0:02:06.720 if that mustaches is quality pandemic germ prevention care if 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:08.280 you know what I mean. You might have to shave 0:02:08.320 --> 0:02:11.600 that down. Just yeah, well that's as long as you 0:02:11.639 --> 0:02:13.760 as long as you keep it under the mask. Um, 0:02:13.800 --> 0:02:15.519 it's not a factor. But yeah, if you take the 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:17.799 mask off, you know it definitely stuff can get get 0:02:17.800 --> 0:02:19.440 in there and you don't want to have to deal 0:02:19.480 --> 0:02:21.960 with that. Okay, Well, I'm glad we got that taken 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:23.680 care of. Here. Here is we have so much to 0:02:23.680 --> 0:02:26.040 get to that I want to get started here, Warren. Uh. 0:02:26.080 --> 0:02:29.120 And let's just start with the with the statement that 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:31.000 we should always start with, which is that you know, 0:02:31.160 --> 0:02:33.400 for years and years and years, the mainstream media has 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:37.280 always done a very lazy hack about strength of schedule. 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:41.120 They use the wind lost percentages of teams from projected 0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:44.200 forward when the schedule comes out, and you have been 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:48.000 one of the loudest voices in saying that's crap. It 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:51.880 should be done. Perhaps the best barometer is by NFL 0:02:51.960 --> 0:02:55.880 season win totals established in the betting market. Uh. And 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:59.600 so through that prism, let's just let's just start with 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:02.480 your fist overall, let's start there that we'll work our 0:03:02.480 --> 0:03:07.440 way down. Okay. The toughest schedule by far is the 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:11.040 Atlanta Falcons. And there's a couple of interesting quirks for 0:03:11.120 --> 0:03:14.480 the Atlanta Falcons, but they definitely face the most difficult 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:17.720 schedule of opposing teams this year. And it's not easy 0:03:17.760 --> 0:03:20.040 at the beginning, it's not easy at the end. At 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:22.880 the beginning, they're going up against the four straight teams 0:03:22.880 --> 0:03:26.079 that are gonna be fighting for wild card contention at 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:29.120 worst in the NFC if we're talking about the Seattle 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:31.839 Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys, the Chicago Bears and the Green 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:35.400 Bay Packers um and in a division as difficult as 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:38.520 the NFC South is this year, with both the Saints 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:41.440 and the Bucks in a virtual arms race for acquiring 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:44.960 talent over the offseason to bring in there, it's gonna 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:47.240 be hard to win that division. Wild card might be 0:03:47.760 --> 0:03:51.520 the best bet for the Falcons, and you can't take 0:03:51.560 --> 0:03:53.800 any of these games to start the season lightly because 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:55.640 those teams are gonna be buying for the wild card 0:03:55.960 --> 0:03:57.680 as well. The good news for them as they play 0:03:57.720 --> 0:04:00.680 the Carolina Panthers a couple of times, but the bad 0:04:00.720 --> 0:04:03.320 news is Carolina can't be as bad as they were 0:04:03.440 --> 0:04:05.880 last year without really a quarterback at all. They have 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:08.760 Teddy Bridgewater there this year. They're improved on defense, So 0:04:08.840 --> 0:04:11.600 I still think that those are winnable games for the Falcons. 0:04:11.640 --> 0:04:14.280 But other than that, their schedule really is not all 0:04:14.320 --> 0:04:16.640 that easy at all. No real teams that you can 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:20.120 tell all this is a slam dunk terrible team besides Carolina, 0:04:20.240 --> 0:04:23.240 maybe Detroit throwing them in there. You've got everybody else 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:25.920 the seven and a half wins or more most teams 0:04:25.960 --> 0:04:28.840 are forecasted to be above five hundred that they're going 0:04:28.880 --> 0:04:32.320 to face. That's a brutal schedule. Yeah, look at that. 0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:35.920 It's it's Seattle at Dallas, Chicago at Green Beata start 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:39.720 uh New Orleans at the Chargers, the Bucks at the 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:42.760 Chiefs at the Bucks to close the West Coast trip 0:04:43.120 --> 0:04:46.680 throw it in. That is just brutal for the Atlanta Falcons. 0:04:46.680 --> 0:04:48.680 Who's two through five real quick, we don't have to 0:04:48.680 --> 0:04:51.760 dive into him. But who's second to fifth toughest by 0:04:51.800 --> 0:04:55.320 your Yeah, so the second toughest, we're going up to 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:58.479 New York and we're hitting the Giants at second toughest, 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:01.000 and the Jet the third toughest. And the interesting nugget 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:03.560 here on the Jet is that last year, although it 0:05:03.600 --> 0:05:05.479 doesn't seem like it because they didn't have a great 0:05:05.520 --> 0:05:09.120 overall season, part of their wins were probably helped by 0:05:09.120 --> 0:05:12.080 the fact that they played the fifth easiest schedule. They've 0:05:12.080 --> 0:05:15.520 got the third toughest schedule this year, so they move 0:05:16.000 --> 0:05:18.520 the easiest to the worst in terms of shifting ends 0:05:18.520 --> 0:05:21.000 of the spectrum. There. Then you've got the fourth toughest 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:24.279 is your Las Vegas Raiders making their first season in 0:05:24.480 --> 0:05:27.520 Las Vegas. They or the fourth toughest and the fifth toughest. 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:30.520 Another team from the a f C West, the Denver Broncos. 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:34.479 To round it out, tough sledding for all five of 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:37.960 those teams, specifically the Falcons Gil Alexander Warren sharp it 0:05:38.080 --> 0:05:40.039 is a numbers game right here, at least in the 0:05:40.160 --> 0:05:43.720 sports betting network. Uh And you make the point often Warren, 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:45.840 and it should be stated that when you go through 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:49.120 these if if someone says it's the thirteenth toughest schedule 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:52.400 versus the seventeenth toughest, not that big a deal. The 0:05:52.440 --> 0:05:57.320 extremes are what matters, right absolutely, because at the end 0:05:57.400 --> 0:05:59.640 of the day, any type of strength of schedule this 0:05:59.720 --> 0:06:02.640 time of the year, with so many unknowns, is not 0:06:02.760 --> 0:06:05.960 going to be perfect. Right Like last year, I predicted 0:06:05.960 --> 0:06:08.800 the five easiest schedules, and by the end of the 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:11.600 year the five easiest schedules. I did nail three of 0:06:11.680 --> 0:06:13.880 the five teams. In terms of the teams that were 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:16.479 the five easiest, But you're going to have a lot 0:06:16.480 --> 0:06:19.080 of variants in the middle of the pack, and so 0:06:19.279 --> 0:06:22.640 exactly you said, the difference between thirteenth and nineteenth or 0:06:22.680 --> 0:06:26.240 sixteenth at the end of the day is relatively meaningless. Um, 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:28.039 it's not going to make a difference as to whether 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:31.560 these teams actually have good or bad seasons. So it's 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:34.600 not really emphasizing that too much. It's definitely the outliers 0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:37.360 or the extremes. Yeah, and we're throwing this and we're 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:39.000 throwing this up at Visa dot com and the Visa 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:42.480 app right now. And this is sort of portending right 0:06:42.520 --> 0:06:44.880 now when we get into the easiest schedules. But you 0:06:44.960 --> 0:06:46.800 make the point in one of your tweets here at 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:50.240 sharp Football. UH note small differences between teams are irrelevant, 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:51.839 just like the example you game. But we talked about 0:06:51.880 --> 0:06:56.600 Atlanta five games versus teams rejected UH sub five hundred 0:06:56.920 --> 0:07:01.960 nine against nine plus win season win total teams. The 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:05.240 converse of that the Indianapolis Colts, which I'm guessing will 0:07:05.279 --> 0:07:08.960 be your easiest schedule. Then they play eight games versus 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:13.040 teams projected UH to be sub five meaning win total 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:15.119 of less than eight games, a fewer than eight games 0:07:15.480 --> 0:07:19.560 eight wins rather and only four in the nine plus range. 0:07:20.000 --> 0:07:24.600 Is Indianapolis your easiest overall schedule. Yes, they are. As 0:07:24.640 --> 0:07:27.120 you mentioned, they're just very fortunate with some of the 0:07:27.160 --> 0:07:30.160 opponents that they face. Who knows what the Jacksonville Jaguars 0:07:30.160 --> 0:07:31.920 are actually going to be doing this year from a 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:35.040 football perspective, but they get to go against them weeks 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:37.680 one and week seventeen, So hopefully you get the season 0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:40.360 started off well and then you host them week seventeen 0:07:40.720 --> 0:07:43.559 in between the toughest games that you're going to play. 0:07:43.760 --> 0:07:47.160 Take a look at this, there are three non division 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:49.200 games that you're going to play that they're the toughest 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:52.400 on your schedule. Uh, You've got the Minnesota Vike games, 0:07:52.440 --> 0:07:57.320 the Baltimore Ravens, and the Green Bay Packers. All three 0:07:57.320 --> 0:08:00.440 of those games are home games for the Indianapoli Cold. 0:08:00.520 --> 0:08:03.800 So home field, as I'm sure you've discussed before, probably 0:08:03.840 --> 0:08:06.480 not as big as a factor this season Number one, 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:10.080 Number two. As I've studied predicted heading into last year, 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:14.600 home field is not as big even regard regardless of 0:08:14.600 --> 0:08:17.080 the pandemic, it hasn't been as big of a factor 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:20.280 as it once was. Um, but not having to travel 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:23.560 to those opponents, Uh, it's just a slight benefit that 0:08:23.640 --> 0:08:25.880 any team who gets to play at home is going 0:08:25.920 --> 0:08:27.680 to benefit from. And so you're playing three of the 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:31.080 toughest non division opponents and you get to host all 0:08:31.080 --> 0:08:33.679 of those games. That's a factor here as well, but 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:36.280 just in terms of the overall strength of those opponents, 0:08:36.559 --> 0:08:40.480 it's definitely looking good for the Indianapolis Colts. Yeah. Look 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:44.680 that the single toughest game on that schedule, arguably, maybe 0:08:44.720 --> 0:08:47.840 maybe not arguably is the home game in week night 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:51.360 against the Ravens after a by and a game against 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:54.280 the Lions. So like it couldn't even be more favorable 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:55.959 than that, right, I mean, they get they catch a 0:08:56.000 --> 0:08:59.320 break in every single way. It seems like who's two 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:03.840 through five of easiest behind the Colts. So number two 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:06.280 is another a f C South team that's play the 0:09:06.360 --> 0:09:09.720 Jags twice, and that's the Tennessee Titans. Number three the 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:12.679 Cleveland Browns. And they're really interesting one at number three 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:15.680 because we know they didn't live up to expectations last season. 0:09:15.720 --> 0:09:18.880 But last season they played the tenth toughest schedule of 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:21.920 opposing teams and now they get to play the third 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:25.880 easiest schedules. So that's a big uh. It's the largest 0:09:25.920 --> 0:09:30.880 in fact, moved from hardest to easiest over one off season. 0:09:31.160 --> 0:09:34.000 They have a new coaching staff. They're doing things a 0:09:34.000 --> 0:09:38.320 lot differently with this staff in terms of bringing heavier personnel. 0:09:38.480 --> 0:09:42.440 They've added an extra tight end, better alignment through the draft. 0:09:42.480 --> 0:09:45.400 They brought in a fullback in free agency. Uh, They're 0:09:45.440 --> 0:09:48.160 going to do some things I think that accentuate what 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:51.319 Baker Mayfield does well. Baker does so much better when 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:53.680 he thinks everything is going to be blocked up. When 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:57.960 he is worried about his protection. His passing numbers dropped precipitously. 0:09:58.120 --> 0:10:01.280 So they're a big team that's moved up. The Baltimore 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:04.160 Ravens are the fourth easiest schedule, one of the best 0:10:04.200 --> 0:10:06.360 teams in the league, it's not the best, gets to 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:09.640 play a much easier schedule this upcoming season. Now, they 0:10:09.640 --> 0:10:11.920 had the eighth easiest schedule last year, so it's not 0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:14.880 a big jump in terms of ease of schedule for them, 0:10:14.880 --> 0:10:16.800 but they do get to face the top five easiest 0:10:16.800 --> 0:10:20.400 schedule and then the Chargers play the fifth easiest schedule 0:10:20.480 --> 0:10:25.360 this upcoming season. M interesting, uh and Cleveland. I think 0:10:25.360 --> 0:10:27.840 when you go at sharp football stats dot Com, you 0:10:27.880 --> 0:10:30.040 can see you you break them down and you do 0:10:30.080 --> 0:10:33.840 it so well and with visual graphics of the units 0:10:33.880 --> 0:10:36.120 that they're facing, and I think with with Cleveland, you 0:10:36.160 --> 0:10:40.000 pointed out a third easiest overall, they go from facing 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:43.240 a really difficult schedule last year to really easy one 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:46.600 this year. But specifically it's the past defenses as well 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:49.040 that I think turn on it said, don't they were? Baker, 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:52.160 Mayfield and company get to face a much easier group 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:57.720 of those Yes, absolutely, um. Last season they played the 0:10:57.840 --> 0:11:00.880 number one toughest defenses as a whole, and the number 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:05.040 three toughest past defenses virtually by any metric. Where they're 0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:07.080 gonna look at efficiency, where they're gonna look at yards 0:11:07.120 --> 0:11:09.800 for pass attempt, whether you're gonna look at these teams 0:11:09.880 --> 0:11:14.480 again defending explosive passes, how many explosive passing games? Just 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:17.240 looking at that particular metrics, they faced the third toughest 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:20.520 schedule in all of those metrics. This year, they get 0:11:20.559 --> 0:11:23.520 to play the number one easiest schedule of past defenses, 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:26.880 and the teams that were the worst against explosive passing 0:11:26.920 --> 0:11:30.040 in terms of defending big gains of twenty pluss yards, 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:33.200 they faced the easiest schedule of those past defenses as well. 0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:36.960 So I'm really expecting Kevin's defense. You come in here 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:40.160 and make the changes required to make things easier on 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:43.600 Baker Mayfield and improve the ceiling of this passing attack. 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:46.920 And when you factor in that, he's moving from number 0:11:47.000 --> 0:11:51.719 three most difficult to number one easiest. Inherently, even if 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:54.760 you did nothing, Baker is gonna look better this year 0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:56.960 based on the from the schedules of teams that he's 0:11:57.000 --> 0:11:59.480 going to play, and you factor in all these coaching 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:02.199 change is that are going to be occurring in player 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:05.720 improvement in terms of protections. It's definitely going to raise 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:10.000 the ceiling for Baker Mayfield in and might have some 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:13.520 sick fantasy implications for those who are thinking fantasy football 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:15.640 right there for a guy like Baker Mayfield as well. 0:12:16.080 --> 0:12:19.360 UM talking to Warren Sharp of course at sharp Football 0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:23.520 on Twitter. What's the name of the podcast, Lauren, what's 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:27.040 your podcast that you're doing these days? Well, we just 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:29.400 started one up. I actually took a hiatus from all 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:32.920 podcasting last year in terms of hosting UM and and 0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:36.640 was guesting on others. But this year we're doing the 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:39.240 Sharp Angles podcast. At least what we're doing for the 0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:41.920 time being UM to kind of control some of the 0:12:41.920 --> 0:12:43.560 stuff we get out there, so you can subscribe to 0:12:43.600 --> 0:12:46.360 that on virtually any platform. We also have a fantasy 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:50.120 only podcast, uh called Priestnap Motion where we've got a 0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:54.200 couple of fantasy guys talking talking fantasy football and how 0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:56.160 that relates to real football and that sort of thing. 0:12:56.200 --> 0:13:00.320 But um, yeah, podcasting is great. I haven't had time 0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:02.040 an opportunity to do as much as I would have 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:04.120 liked to in the in the past couple of years, 0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:07.160 but um you know when I when I get the opportunity, 0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:10.680 I certainly like talking football. So alright, So one of 0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:13.360 the things that I do now with NFL seasons just 0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:16.520 from a football betting standform, from his fan standpoint, we 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:18.960 all like to know what teams. It's one thing to 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:21.240 talk about the overall schedules, but we're all focused in 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:24.920 on tough and easy starts as well. I know one 0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:27.480 of the one of the most fun and I always 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:29.559 talk about this through the years on my podcast being 0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:32.040 the Book Podcast and here on a numbers game at Visa. 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:35.280 One of the greatest betting vehicles I'm ever involved in 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:38.480 is this sort of off the grid football stock market things. 0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:41.520 So for that I love to know the ebbs and 0:13:41.600 --> 0:13:44.600 flows of the season. Just starting just talking about the 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:48.120 starts of NFL seasons, who which teams were in have 0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:51.679 the toughest scheduling starts, let's say over the first quarter 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.600 of the season, and then what what teams have the 0:13:54.640 --> 0:14:00.040 easiest starts? Yeah, and and look, I love that. I 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:03.160 think it's a big factor in terms of figuring out, 0:14:03.200 --> 0:14:06.000 you know, when quarterbacks, like rookie quarterbacks might be getting 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:08.400 to start. I love the fact that you get to 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:10.559 see which teams might get off hot, which siems might 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:13.680 get off cold. A team that's really had some changes 0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:16.720 this offseason was the Houston Texans in terms of like 0:14:16.840 --> 0:14:19.680 a perineal playoff team that hasn't had any success in 0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:23.920 the postseason, has hasn't been lucky in some certain situations 0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:27.160 in terms of, uh, some of the games that they've played, uh, 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:30.160 blowing some leads and whatnot. But if you look at 0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:33.480 their schedule, they play the number one toughest schedule to 0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:35.920 start the season and it's number one toughest bike bar 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:38.800 and they're doing it without DeAndre Hopkins, now their best 0:14:38.840 --> 0:14:41.960 wide receiver. They're playing at Kansas City to open the 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:44.760 season Week one on Thursday night. Then they have to 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:47.120 host the Baltimore Ravens, So you've got the two best 0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:49.360 teams in the a f C possibly all of football 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:51.480 weeks one and two. Then you have to go on 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:54.240 the road to play the Pittsburgh Steelers after you play 0:14:54.280 --> 0:14:56.920 the Ravens, and then you have to host the Minnesota Vikings, 0:14:56.960 --> 0:15:01.120 another very difficult opponent that's certainly stacked. So, I mean, 0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:03.320 if you look at if you look at one to 0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:07.680 thirty two, it's pretty much a consistent line that goes 0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:09.560 down in terms of just looking at how these teams 0:15:09.560 --> 0:15:11.280 are ranking if you're doing it visually, and then the 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:14.760 Texans are off the charts much harder than anybody else, 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:17.680 a huge gap between them and number thirty one, So 0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:20.440 they're by far the most difficult. And I will know 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:23.720 gil that it's really interesting this season as you compare 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:27.400 it to prior years with how this season, let's pretend 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:31.160 we're starting Week one, but how these teams are going 0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:34.080 to be able to prepare themselves for the season at 0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:36.160 this time of the year. Some of the coaches that 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:39.760 I speak with their typically working on their pass game. 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:42.520 They're doing a lot of seven on seven's, They're perfecting 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:44.800 their pass game right now. And when it gets to 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:47.320 pads and you're in training camp, that's when you're working 0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:49.080 a little bit more on the run game. Well, some 0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:52.160 of this uh timing and figuring out what you're gonna 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:55.720 do from a passing perspective that is being lost. Right 0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:58.520 you're doing films sessions, you're doing classroom sessions right now 0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:01.320 on zoom and other poor olds, but you're not being 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:03.800 able to work with that passing attack quite as well. 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:06.040 So one of the things I look at is you 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:07.760 know which teams are going to come out with the 0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:12.680 most difficult schedule of run defenses or past defenses, and 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:16.040 which teams might have the easiest schedule of run defenses. 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:19.600 And like the Baltimore Ravens, for example, are very fortunate 0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:22.280 they're playing the first five weeks they play the number 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:25.600 one easiest schedule of run defenses in the NFL. They 0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:29.280 literally play five straight opponents that ranked bottom ten in 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:32.560 terms of run defense last year. So I mean, the 0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:34.800 team that already wants to be able to run the 0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:38.080 football is getting a really easy slate and should be 0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:39.680 able to get off to a really good start in 0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:43.280 this upcoming season as a result of that. Yeah, Baltimore, 0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:45.000 which by the way, guys back in the studio, we 0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:47.760 have a tweet from Ward about Baltimore specifically, easiest run 0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:51.000 d schedule over the first five weeks, easiest schedule of 0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:54.040 run defenses is weren't just pointed out Cleveland at Houston, 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:58.480 Casey at Washington, Cincinnati as if Lamar Jackson needed that 0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:01.800 help to start the season, and uh Ravens running attack. 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:05.120 And then the easiest overall schedule over the last five 0:17:05.200 --> 0:17:09.440 weeks Dallas at Cleveland on eleven days, rest Jacksonville, the 0:17:09.480 --> 0:17:12.080 Giants at Cincinnati. Back to the to the Texans who 0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:15.240 have the easiest excuse me, the hardest start, the toughest 0:17:15.280 --> 0:17:19.760 start at Casey, Baltimore at Pittsburgh Minnesota. I mean, that's brutal. 0:17:20.000 --> 0:17:22.520 And you point out thirty one, which is the Redskins 0:17:22.560 --> 0:17:24.960 not even close, Like the next toughest start is not 0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:27.159 even close to a start as to as tough as 0:17:27.200 --> 0:17:30.320 the Texans start. Is. Just to give people a sense 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:32.119 if you look at those first four games and you 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:34.320 do the whole win loss, win lost thing, all right, 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:37.960 let's give the Texans a win there in some in 0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:40.240 in one of those four games. Let's say they go 0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:43.879 one in three, which is you know, realistic when you 0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:47.360 have that tough of a start uh eight dot com. 0:17:47.600 --> 0:17:51.600 You start the season one in three Warren fourteen percent 0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:55.520 of teams that start one in three get into the postseason. 0:17:55.880 --> 0:18:01.359 That's why that matters so much. Yeah. Absolutely, I think 0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:05.199 a lot of people overall overlook UH schedule. You know, 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:08.320 it's it's so crazy because in in college football we 0:18:08.359 --> 0:18:10.879 talk about schedule all the time late this season because 0:18:10.880 --> 0:18:14.600 we're trying to pick the four most qualified teams to 0:18:14.680 --> 0:18:17.800 make the playoffs. Right, But in the NFL, since everything's 0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:21.439 done automatically and automated based upon you know, how you 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:24.680 fall out in tiebreakers and whatnot, we never really discussed 0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:28.040 strength of schedule in pro football. But as we know, 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:32.200 these schedules are determined except for two games, they're determined 0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:35.439 years in advance, and they vary between one year to 0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:38.240 the next in terms of team a versus team being 0:18:38.280 --> 0:18:40.800 a different conference. In those limitsed opponents you're playing in 0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:44.080 those sixteen games, there's a wide disparity in terms of 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:46.080 what your strength of schedule is actually going to be 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:48.919 from one year to the next. Um and then you 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:51.439 throw in the fact that the fourth place team plays 0:18:51.440 --> 0:18:53.680 a fourth place schedule in the first place team two 0:18:53.680 --> 0:18:56.760 more games against most difficult opponents that they could play 0:18:56.760 --> 0:18:59.919 in those respective divisions. Strength of schedule is a factor 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:02.840 when you're playing these teams is a factor, um, and 0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:06.480 it definitely doesn't get the airtime that it deserves. UH. 0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:08.560 And you also point out another tweet that we have 0:19:08.840 --> 0:19:10.760 the Raiders face. If you were to extended out to 0:19:10.760 --> 0:19:14.480 the first eleven weeks, they've got the toughest schedule first 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:16.679 eleven weeks, but then that turns on its head, second 0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:20.560 easiest from weeks twelve through seventeen. So it varies obviously 0:19:20.880 --> 0:19:23.359 depending on what range of games you're talking about. So 0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:27.679 no gifts for the Las Vegas Raiders there, um. Just 0:19:27.720 --> 0:19:30.760 to wrap this up, the easiest start to a schedule 0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:35.639 would be, UH. Number one is the Arizona Cardinals. And 0:19:35.640 --> 0:19:38.800 then you've got the Indianapolis Cold to have another easy schedule. 0:19:39.400 --> 0:19:43.120 We talked about them before their whole season isn't isn't tough. Um. 0:19:43.520 --> 0:19:46.080 You've got the Buffalo Bills clocking in at number three, 0:19:46.560 --> 0:19:49.800 the Jacksonville Jaguars number four, and the Chicago Bears at 0:19:49.880 --> 0:19:52.640 number five. And one note on the Chicago Bears, Uh, 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:55.800 they had the I think it's the eighth toughest schedule 0:19:55.920 --> 0:19:58.240 last year. They have the sixth easiest this year, so 0:19:58.240 --> 0:20:00.359 we didn't get a chance to mention them after the 0:20:00.720 --> 0:20:03.080 l A Chargers, but they do fall in there as 0:20:03.119 --> 0:20:06.919 the sixth easiest. So they have the second easiest swing 0:20:07.040 --> 0:20:10.440 from twenty of any team, and they have the fifth 0:20:10.520 --> 0:20:14.520 easiest in the first month of the year. So interesting. 0:20:14.560 --> 0:20:17.639 And and again, since we did this with Houston and 0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:20.960 the toughest start, UH, let's take Arizona, which you said 0:20:20.960 --> 0:20:24.520 had the easiest start first five weeks at San Francisco, 0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:26.960 So that's difficult. No one's saying that's not. But then 0:20:27.040 --> 0:20:30.440 after that Redskins at home, Lions at home, at Panthers 0:20:30.480 --> 0:20:33.880 at Jets. Uh, don't get much easier than that. So 0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:37.240 going back to the five dot com stats, if you 0:20:37.320 --> 0:20:40.280 go four in one, and I'm not saying Arizona is, 0:20:40.320 --> 0:20:43.000 but let's just say they do because they have winnable games. 0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:45.000 If you go four and one to start a season, 0:20:45.040 --> 0:20:49.920 seventy of those teams get in the playoffs, per dot Com. 0:20:49.960 --> 0:20:53.280 So you know, the starts matter, and they matter for 0:20:53.359 --> 0:20:58.480