Speaker 1: Uh, check it down, man, now down. Then it's the
Speaker 1: Beating the Book Podcast. Still at rand Warren Sharp is
Speaker 1: the guest today kind enough to join us as he
Speaker 1: does each and every year right about this time, to
Speaker 1: talk about strength of schedule in the upcoming National Football
Speaker 1: League season. We'll talk about the easiest and the toughest
Speaker 1: overall schedules, the easiest and the toughest starts, and a
Speaker 1: whole bunch of different details, whole bunch of different angles
Speaker 1: within the scope of the National Football League schedule. Think
Speaker 1: you'll enjoy this, A lot of good tidbits to file
Speaker 1: away for when, if, and when we have the National
Speaker 1: Football League season. Warren Sharp, enjoy Welcome back to a
Speaker 1: numbers game with Jill Alexander. It is our number two
Speaker 1: of a numbers game right here at Visa the sports
Speaker 1: betting network, Gil Alexander Serious x M Channel two oh four,
Speaker 1: Visa dot Com, the Visa app, Bobos Link Game plus First.
Speaker 1: This is always a treat. We do this about this
Speaker 1: time every year with this gentleman. Uh. You can find
Speaker 1: him on Twitter at sharp football, but really the sites
Speaker 1: are great. Sharp football stats dot Com, Sharp football Analysis
Speaker 1: dot Com puts out a preview guide every year for
Speaker 1: the National Football League season. But it's the strength of
Speaker 1: schedule this time of year that we always have him
Speaker 1: come in on and he is kind enough to do so.
Speaker 1: Yet again, it's our buddy, Warren Sharp. Good morning, Warren.
Speaker 1: How are you doing man? I'm doing great. You know
Speaker 1: how are you? I'm doing well. We have a beautiful
Speaker 1: photo of you. I know you get a lot of
Speaker 1: a lot of flak for the mustache, but I appreciate
Speaker 1: the fact that you're still rocking it. Still rocking it, um,
Speaker 1: enjoying it. Uh, you don't see it if I'll leave
Speaker 1: the house with my map. You don't see it if
Speaker 1: I leave the house with my mask on. But that's
Speaker 1: why I don't leave the house. Technically, I'm staying right
Speaker 1: here and say, can sound inside? Yeah, I don't know
Speaker 1: if that mustaches is quality pandemic germ prevention care if
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. You might have to shave
Speaker 1: that down. Just yeah, well that's as long as you
Speaker 1: as long as you keep it under the mask. Um,
Speaker 1: it's not a factor. But yeah, if you take the
Speaker 1: mask off, you know it definitely stuff can get get
Speaker 1: in there and you don't want to have to deal
Speaker 1: with that. Okay, Well, I'm glad we got that taken
Speaker 1: care of. Here. Here is we have so much to
Speaker 1: get to that I want to get started here, Warren. Uh.
Speaker 1: And let's just start with the with the statement that
Speaker 1: we should always start with, which is that you know,
Speaker 1: for years and years and years, the mainstream media has
Speaker 1: always done a very lazy hack about strength of schedule.
Speaker 1: They use the wind lost percentages of teams from projected
Speaker 1: forward when the schedule comes out, and you have been
Speaker 1: one of the loudest voices in saying that's crap. It
Speaker 1: should be done. Perhaps the best barometer is by NFL
Speaker 1: season win totals established in the betting market. Uh. And
Speaker 1: so through that prism, let's just let's just start with
Speaker 1: your fist overall, let's start there that we'll work our
Speaker 1: way down. Okay. The toughest schedule by far is the
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons. And there's a couple of interesting quirks for
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons, but they definitely face the most difficult
Speaker 1: schedule of opposing teams this year. And it's not easy
Speaker 1: at the beginning, it's not easy at the end. At
Speaker 1: the beginning, they're going up against the four straight teams
Speaker 1: that are gonna be fighting for wild card contention at
Speaker 1: worst in the NFC if we're talking about the Seattle
Speaker 1: Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys, the Chicago Bears and the Green
Speaker 1: Bay Packers um and in a division as difficult as
Speaker 1: the NFC South is this year, with both the Saints
Speaker 1: and the Bucks in a virtual arms race for acquiring
Speaker 1: talent over the offseason to bring in there, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be hard to win that division. Wild card might be
Speaker 1: the best bet for the Falcons, and you can't take
Speaker 1: any of these games to start the season lightly because
Speaker 1: those teams are gonna be buying for the wild card
Speaker 1: as well. The good news for them as they play
Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers a couple of times, but the bad
Speaker 1: news is Carolina can't be as bad as they were
Speaker 1: last year without really a quarterback at all. They have
Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater there this year. They're improved on defense, So
Speaker 1: I still think that those are winnable games for the Falcons.
Speaker 1: But other than that, their schedule really is not all
Speaker 1: that easy at all. No real teams that you can
Speaker 1: tell all this is a slam dunk terrible team besides Carolina,
Speaker 1: maybe Detroit throwing them in there. You've got everybody else
Speaker 1: the seven and a half wins or more most teams
Speaker 1: are forecasted to be above five hundred that they're going
Speaker 1: to face. That's a brutal schedule. Yeah, look at that.
Speaker 1: It's it's Seattle at Dallas, Chicago at Green Beata start
Speaker 1: uh New Orleans at the Chargers, the Bucks at the
Speaker 1: Chiefs at the Bucks to close the West Coast trip
Speaker 1: throw it in. That is just brutal for the Atlanta Falcons.
Speaker 1: Who's two through five real quick, we don't have to
Speaker 1: dive into him. But who's second to fifth toughest by
Speaker 1: your Yeah, so the second toughest, we're going up to
Speaker 1: New York and we're hitting the Giants at second toughest,
Speaker 1: and the Jet the third toughest. And the interesting nugget
Speaker 1: here on the Jet is that last year, although it
Speaker 1: doesn't seem like it because they didn't have a great
Speaker 1: overall season, part of their wins were probably helped by
Speaker 1: the fact that they played the fifth easiest schedule. They've
Speaker 1: got the third toughest schedule this year, so they move
Speaker 1: the easiest to the worst in terms of shifting ends
Speaker 1: of the spectrum. There. Then you've got the fourth toughest
Speaker 1: is your Las Vegas Raiders making their first season in
Speaker 1: Las Vegas. They or the fourth toughest and the fifth toughest.
Speaker 1: Another team from the a f C West, the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 1: To round it out, tough sledding for all five of
Speaker 1: those teams, specifically the Falcons Gil Alexander Warren sharp it
Speaker 1: is a numbers game right here, at least in the
Speaker 1: sports betting network. Uh And you make the point often Warren,
Speaker 1: and it should be stated that when you go through
Speaker 1: these if if someone says it's the thirteenth toughest schedule
Speaker 1: versus the seventeenth toughest, not that big a deal. The
Speaker 1: extremes are what matters, right absolutely, because at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, any type of strength of schedule this
Speaker 1: time of the year, with so many unknowns, is not
Speaker 1: going to be perfect. Right Like last year, I predicted
Speaker 1: the five easiest schedules, and by the end of the
Speaker 1: year the five easiest schedules. I did nail three of
Speaker 1: the five teams. In terms of the teams that were
Speaker 1: the five easiest, But you're going to have a lot
Speaker 1: of variants in the middle of the pack, and so
Speaker 1: exactly you said, the difference between thirteenth and nineteenth or
Speaker 1: sixteenth at the end of the day is relatively meaningless. Um,
Speaker 1: it's not going to make a difference as to whether
Speaker 1: these teams actually have good or bad seasons. So it's
Speaker 1: not really emphasizing that too much. It's definitely the outliers
Speaker 1: or the extremes. Yeah, and we're throwing this and we're
Speaker 1: throwing this up at Visa dot com and the Visa
Speaker 1: app right now. And this is sort of portending right
Speaker 1: now when we get into the easiest schedules. But you
Speaker 1: make the point in one of your tweets here at
Speaker 1: sharp Football. UH note small differences between teams are irrelevant,
Speaker 1: just like the example you game. But we talked about
Speaker 1: Atlanta five games versus teams rejected UH sub five hundred
Speaker 1: nine against nine plus win season win total teams. The
Speaker 1: converse of that the Indianapolis Colts, which I'm guessing will
Speaker 1: be your easiest schedule. Then they play eight games versus
Speaker 1: teams projected UH to be sub five meaning win total
Speaker 1: of less than eight games, a fewer than eight games
Speaker 1: eight wins rather and only four in the nine plus range.
Speaker 1: Is Indianapolis your easiest overall schedule. Yes, they are. As
Speaker 1: you mentioned, they're just very fortunate with some of the
Speaker 1: opponents that they face. Who knows what the Jacksonville Jaguars
Speaker 1: are actually going to be doing this year from a
Speaker 1: football perspective, but they get to go against them weeks
Speaker 1: one and week seventeen, So hopefully you get the season
Speaker 1: started off well and then you host them week seventeen
Speaker 1: in between the toughest games that you're going to play.
Speaker 1: Take a look at this, there are three non division
Speaker 1: games that you're going to play that they're the toughest
Speaker 1: on your schedule. Uh, You've got the Minnesota Vike games,
Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens, and the Green Bay Packers. All three
Speaker 1: of those games are home games for the Indianapoli Cold.
Speaker 1: So home field, as I'm sure you've discussed before, probably
Speaker 1: not as big as a factor this season Number one,
Speaker 1: Number two. As I've studied predicted heading into last year,
Speaker 1: home field is not as big even regard regardless of
Speaker 1: the pandemic, it hasn't been as big of a factor
Speaker 1: as it once was. Um, but not having to travel
Speaker 1: to those opponents, Uh, it's just a slight benefit that
Speaker 1: any team who gets to play at home is going
Speaker 1: to benefit from. And so you're playing three of the
Speaker 1: toughest non division opponents and you get to host all
Speaker 1: of those games. That's a factor here as well, but
Speaker 1: just in terms of the overall strength of those opponents,
Speaker 1: it's definitely looking good for the Indianapolis Colts. Yeah. Look
Speaker 1: that the single toughest game on that schedule, arguably, maybe
Speaker 1: maybe not arguably is the home game in week night
Speaker 1: against the Ravens after a by and a game against
Speaker 1: the Lions. So like it couldn't even be more favorable
Speaker 1: than that, right, I mean, they get they catch a
Speaker 1: break in every single way. It seems like who's two
Speaker 1: through five of easiest behind the Colts. So number two
Speaker 1: is another a f C South team that's play the
Speaker 1: Jags twice, and that's the Tennessee Titans. Number three the
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. And they're really interesting one at number three
Speaker 1: because we know they didn't live up to expectations last season.
Speaker 1: But last season they played the tenth toughest schedule of
Speaker 1: opposing teams and now they get to play the third
Speaker 1: easiest schedules. So that's a big uh. It's the largest
Speaker 1: in fact, moved from hardest to easiest over one off season.
Speaker 1: They have a new coaching staff. They're doing things a
Speaker 1: lot differently with this staff in terms of bringing heavier personnel.
Speaker 1: They've added an extra tight end, better alignment through the draft.
Speaker 1: They brought in a fullback in free agency. Uh, They're
Speaker 1: going to do some things I think that accentuate what
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield does well. Baker does so much better when
Speaker 1: he thinks everything is going to be blocked up. When
Speaker 1: he is worried about his protection. His passing numbers dropped precipitously.
Speaker 1: So they're a big team that's moved up. The Baltimore
Speaker 1: Ravens are the fourth easiest schedule, one of the best
Speaker 1: teams in the league, it's not the best, gets to
Speaker 1: play a much easier schedule this upcoming season. Now, they
Speaker 1: had the eighth easiest schedule last year, so it's not
Speaker 1: a big jump in terms of ease of schedule for them,
Speaker 1: but they do get to face the top five easiest
Speaker 1: schedule and then the Chargers play the fifth easiest schedule
Speaker 1: this upcoming season. M interesting, uh and Cleveland. I think
Speaker 1: when you go at sharp football stats dot Com, you
Speaker 1: can see you you break them down and you do
Speaker 1: it so well and with visual graphics of the units
Speaker 1: that they're facing, and I think with with Cleveland, you
Speaker 1: pointed out a third easiest overall, they go from facing
Speaker 1: a really difficult schedule last year to really easy one
Speaker 1: this year. But specifically it's the past defenses as well
Speaker 1: that I think turn on it said, don't they were? Baker,
Speaker 1: Mayfield and company get to face a much easier group
Speaker 1: of those Yes, absolutely, um. Last season they played the
Speaker 1: number one toughest defenses as a whole, and the number
Speaker 1: three toughest past defenses virtually by any metric. Where they're
Speaker 1: gonna look at efficiency, where they're gonna look at yards
Speaker 1: for pass attempt, whether you're gonna look at these teams
Speaker 1: again defending explosive passes, how many explosive passing games? Just
Speaker 1: looking at that particular metrics, they faced the third toughest
Speaker 1: schedule in all of those metrics. This year, they get
Speaker 1: to play the number one easiest schedule of past defenses,
Speaker 1: and the teams that were the worst against explosive passing
Speaker 1: in terms of defending big gains of twenty pluss yards,
Speaker 1: they faced the easiest schedule of those past defenses as well.
Speaker 1: So I'm really expecting Kevin's defense. You come in here
Speaker 1: and make the changes required to make things easier on
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield and improve the ceiling of this passing attack.
Speaker 1: And when you factor in that, he's moving from number
Speaker 1: three most difficult to number one easiest. Inherently, even if
Speaker 1: you did nothing, Baker is gonna look better this year
Speaker 1: based on the from the schedules of teams that he's
Speaker 1: going to play, and you factor in all these coaching
Speaker 1: change is that are going to be occurring in player
Speaker 1: improvement in terms of protections. It's definitely going to raise
Speaker 1: the ceiling for Baker Mayfield in and might have some
Speaker 1: sick fantasy implications for those who are thinking fantasy football
Speaker 1: right there for a guy like Baker Mayfield as well.
Speaker 1: UM talking to Warren Sharp of course at sharp Football
Speaker 1: on Twitter. What's the name of the podcast, Lauren, what's
Speaker 1: your podcast that you're doing these days? Well, we just
Speaker 1: started one up. I actually took a hiatus from all
Speaker 1: podcasting last year in terms of hosting UM and and
Speaker 1: was guesting on others. But this year we're doing the
Speaker 1: Sharp Angles podcast. At least what we're doing for the
Speaker 1: time being UM to kind of control some of the
Speaker 1: stuff we get out there, so you can subscribe to
Speaker 1: that on virtually any platform. We also have a fantasy
Speaker 1: only podcast, uh called Priestnap Motion where we've got a
Speaker 1: couple of fantasy guys talking talking fantasy football and how
Speaker 1: that relates to real football and that sort of thing.
Speaker 1: But um, yeah, podcasting is great. I haven't had time
Speaker 1: an opportunity to do as much as I would have
Speaker 1: liked to in the in the past couple of years,
Speaker 1: but um you know when I when I get the opportunity,
Speaker 1: I certainly like talking football. So alright, So one of
Speaker 1: the things that I do now with NFL seasons just
Speaker 1: from a football betting standform, from his fan standpoint, we
Speaker 1: all like to know what teams. It's one thing to
Speaker 1: talk about the overall schedules, but we're all focused in
Speaker 1: on tough and easy starts as well. I know one
Speaker 1: of the one of the most fun and I always
Speaker 1: talk about this through the years on my podcast being
Speaker 1: the Book Podcast and here on a numbers game at Visa.
Speaker 1: One of the greatest betting vehicles I'm ever involved in
Speaker 1: is this sort of off the grid football stock market things.
Speaker 1: So for that I love to know the ebbs and
Speaker 1: flows of the season. Just starting just talking about the
Speaker 1: starts of NFL seasons, who which teams were in have
Speaker 1: the toughest scheduling starts, let's say over the first quarter
Speaker 1: of the season, and then what what teams have the
Speaker 1: easiest starts? Yeah, and and look, I love that. I
Speaker 1: think it's a big factor in terms of figuring out,
Speaker 1: you know, when quarterbacks, like rookie quarterbacks might be getting
Speaker 1: to start. I love the fact that you get to
Speaker 1: see which teams might get off hot, which siems might
Speaker 1: get off cold. A team that's really had some changes
Speaker 1: this offseason was the Houston Texans in terms of like
Speaker 1: a perineal playoff team that hasn't had any success in
Speaker 1: the postseason, has hasn't been lucky in some certain situations
Speaker 1: in terms of, uh, some of the games that they've played, uh,
Speaker 1: blowing some leads and whatnot. But if you look at
Speaker 1: their schedule, they play the number one toughest schedule to
Speaker 1: start the season and it's number one toughest bike bar
Speaker 1: and they're doing it without DeAndre Hopkins, now their best
Speaker 1: wide receiver. They're playing at Kansas City to open the
Speaker 1: season Week one on Thursday night. Then they have to
Speaker 1: host the Baltimore Ravens, So you've got the two best
Speaker 1: teams in the a f C possibly all of football
Speaker 1: weeks one and two. Then you have to go on
Speaker 1: the road to play the Pittsburgh Steelers after you play
Speaker 1: the Ravens, and then you have to host the Minnesota Vikings,
Speaker 1: another very difficult opponent that's certainly stacked. So, I mean,
Speaker 1: if you look at if you look at one to
Speaker 1: thirty two, it's pretty much a consistent line that goes
Speaker 1: down in terms of just looking at how these teams
Speaker 1: are ranking if you're doing it visually, and then the
Speaker 1: Texans are off the charts much harder than anybody else,
Speaker 1: a huge gap between them and number thirty one, So
Speaker 1: they're by far the most difficult. And I will know
Speaker 1: gil that it's really interesting this season as you compare
Speaker 1: it to prior years with how this season, let's pretend
Speaker 1: we're starting Week one, but how these teams are going
Speaker 1: to be able to prepare themselves for the season at
Speaker 1: this time of the year. Some of the coaches that
Speaker 1: I speak with their typically working on their pass game.
Speaker 1: They're doing a lot of seven on seven's, They're perfecting
Speaker 1: their pass game right now. And when it gets to
Speaker 1: pads and you're in training camp, that's when you're working
Speaker 1: a little bit more on the run game. Well, some
Speaker 1: of this uh timing and figuring out what you're gonna
Speaker 1: do from a passing perspective that is being lost. Right
Speaker 1: you're doing films sessions, you're doing classroom sessions right now
Speaker 1: on zoom and other poor olds, but you're not being
Speaker 1: able to work with that passing attack quite as well.
Speaker 1: So one of the things I look at is you
Speaker 1: know which teams are going to come out with the
Speaker 1: most difficult schedule of run defenses or past defenses, and
Speaker 1: which teams might have the easiest schedule of run defenses.
Speaker 1: And like the Baltimore Ravens, for example, are very fortunate
Speaker 1: they're playing the first five weeks they play the number
Speaker 1: one easiest schedule of run defenses in the NFL. They
Speaker 1: literally play five straight opponents that ranked bottom ten in
Speaker 1: terms of run defense last year. So I mean, the
Speaker 1: team that already wants to be able to run the
Speaker 1: football is getting a really easy slate and should be
Speaker 1: able to get off to a really good start in
Speaker 1: this upcoming season as a result of that. Yeah, Baltimore,
Speaker 1: which by the way, guys back in the studio, we
Speaker 1: have a tweet from Ward about Baltimore specifically, easiest run
Speaker 1: d schedule over the first five weeks, easiest schedule of
Speaker 1: run defenses is weren't just pointed out Cleveland at Houston,
Speaker 1: Casey at Washington, Cincinnati as if Lamar Jackson needed that
Speaker 1: help to start the season, and uh Ravens running attack.
Speaker 1: And then the easiest overall schedule over the last five
Speaker 1: weeks Dallas at Cleveland on eleven days, rest Jacksonville, the
Speaker 1: Giants at Cincinnati. Back to the to the Texans who
Speaker 1: have the easiest excuse me, the hardest start, the toughest
Speaker 1: start at Casey, Baltimore at Pittsburgh Minnesota. I mean, that's brutal.
Speaker 1: And you point out thirty one, which is the Redskins
Speaker 1: not even close, Like the next toughest start is not
Speaker 1: even close to a start as to as tough as
Speaker 1: the Texans start. Is. Just to give people a sense
Speaker 1: if you look at those first four games and you
Speaker 1: do the whole win loss, win lost thing, all right,
Speaker 1: let's give the Texans a win there in some in
Speaker 1: in one of those four games. Let's say they go
Speaker 1: one in three, which is you know, realistic when you
Speaker 1: have that tough of a start uh eight dot com.
Speaker 1: You start the season one in three Warren fourteen percent
Speaker 1: of teams that start one in three get into the postseason.
Speaker 1: That's why that matters so much. Yeah. Absolutely, I think
Speaker 1: a lot of people overall overlook UH schedule. You know,
Speaker 1: it's it's so crazy because in in college football we
Speaker 1: talk about schedule all the time late this season because
Speaker 1: we're trying to pick the four most qualified teams to
Speaker 1: make the playoffs. Right, But in the NFL, since everything's
Speaker 1: done automatically and automated based upon you know, how you
Speaker 1: fall out in tiebreakers and whatnot, we never really discussed
Speaker 1: strength of schedule in pro football. But as we know,
Speaker 1: these schedules are determined except for two games, they're determined
Speaker 1: years in advance, and they vary between one year to
Speaker 1: the next in terms of team a versus team being
Speaker 1: a different conference. In those limitsed opponents you're playing in
Speaker 1: those sixteen games, there's a wide disparity in terms of
Speaker 1: what your strength of schedule is actually going to be
Speaker 1: from one year to the next. Um and then you
Speaker 1: throw in the fact that the fourth place team plays
Speaker 1: a fourth place schedule in the first place team two
Speaker 1: more games against most difficult opponents that they could play
Speaker 1: in those respective divisions. Strength of schedule is a factor
Speaker 1: when you're playing these teams is a factor, um, and
Speaker 1: it definitely doesn't get the airtime that it deserves. UH.
Speaker 1: And you also point out another tweet that we have
Speaker 1: the Raiders face. If you were to extended out to
Speaker 1: the first eleven weeks, they've got the toughest schedule first
Speaker 1: eleven weeks, but then that turns on its head, second
Speaker 1: easiest from weeks twelve through seventeen. So it varies obviously
Speaker 1: depending on what range of games you're talking about. So
Speaker 1: no gifts for the Las Vegas Raiders there, um. Just
Speaker 1: to wrap this up, the easiest start to a schedule
Speaker 1: would be, UH. Number one is the Arizona Cardinals. And
Speaker 1: then you've got the Indianapolis Cold to have another easy schedule.
Speaker 1: We talked about them before their whole season isn't isn't tough. Um.
Speaker 1: You've got the Buffalo Bills clocking in at number three,
Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars number four, and the Chicago Bears at
Speaker 1: number five. And one note on the Chicago Bears, Uh,
Speaker 1: they had the I think it's the eighth toughest schedule
Speaker 1: last year. They have the sixth easiest this year, so
Speaker 1: we didn't get a chance to mention them after the
Speaker 1: l A Chargers, but they do fall in there as
Speaker 1: the sixth easiest. So they have the second easiest swing
Speaker 1: from twenty of any team, and they have the fifth
Speaker 1: easiest in the first month of the year. So interesting.
Speaker 1: And and again, since we did this with Houston and
Speaker 1: the toughest start, UH, let's take Arizona, which you said
Speaker 1: had the easiest start first five weeks at San Francisco,
Speaker 1: So that's difficult. No one's saying that's not. But then
Speaker 1: after that Redskins at home, Lions at home, at Panthers
Speaker 1: at Jets. Uh, don't get much easier than that. So
Speaker 1: going back to the five dot com stats, if you
Speaker 1: go four in one, and I'm not saying Arizona is,
Speaker 1: but let's just say they do because they have winnable games.
Speaker 1: If you go four and one to start a season,
Speaker 1: seventy of those teams get in the playoffs, per dot Com.
Speaker 1: So you know, the starts matter, and they matter for
Speaker 1: so many reasons, some just team unity, psychological reasons, um.
Speaker 1: But it's all very fascinating. The there's so many little
Speaker 1: tidbits that you have here, Warren that will go through
Speaker 1: um because I want to after the break, we'll squeeze
Speaker 1: in a break here, but afterwards, I want to get
Speaker 1: into this notion of West coast travel to play early
Speaker 1: games on the East coast. Conventional wisdom wise, that's been
Speaker 1: this thing that people who UH talk handicapping have always said, Oh,
Speaker 1: that's the that's the worst thing in the world. You
Speaker 1: have a team that debunks that, and you actually have
Speaker 1: a situation, uh in modern day NFL history that is
Speaker 1: far worse than that. Actually, we'll get into that. We'll
Speaker 1: get into this notion of teams that play and the
Speaker 1: teams that this applies to three consecutive road games without
Speaker 1: a buy and how they fare a TS in weeks one, two,
Speaker 1: and three, uh in that situation. And then there's this
Speaker 1: notion of just playing teams two out of three weeks
Speaker 1: this year. Really interesting scheduling quirks, and I mentioned the
Speaker 1: Jets earlier who played the Dolphins, have a buy and
Speaker 1: play the Dolphins again. We'll get into all that with
Speaker 1: a great Warren sharp at sharp football coming back right
Speaker 1: after the break right here exclusively on a numbers game
Speaker 1: at Visa these Sports Betting Network. Welcome back to a
Speaker 1: Numbers game with Jill Alexander, back on a numbers game,
Speaker 1: Gil Alexander, just like the man said, Warren Sharp kind
Speaker 1: enough to join us this morning. We were talking off
Speaker 1: air about these quirks again. The Jets playing the Dolphins
Speaker 1: back to back but with a buy in between, but
Speaker 1: they don't play another team before playing the Dolphins consecutively.
Speaker 1: The Falcons, as mentioned earlier, they play the Saints two
Speaker 1: out of three weeks late in the season and then
Speaker 1: turn around and play the Bucks two out of three
Speaker 1: weeks late in the season. Just really interesting scheduling quirks, Warren.
Speaker 1: Let's let's throw these up rapid fire. And let's start
Speaker 1: with what I teased before the break about the notion
Speaker 1: of teams from the Pacific time zone playing early games
Speaker 1: in the Eastern time zone. And there is a team
Speaker 1: that here's all that talk and just scoffs at it,
Speaker 1: isn't there? Yeah, the Seattle Sea Hawks. Since they drafted
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, they have a league best nineteen and six
Speaker 1: record on the road in the Eastern time zone. They
Speaker 1: just do not seem to get rattled by having to
Speaker 1: play games. And most of these games on the Eastern
Speaker 1: time zone are of course the early one pm kickoff
Speaker 1: games um, and they do extremely well with Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: uh in that time slot. And you were saying, the
Speaker 1: situation that is much more difficult is what is it
Speaker 1: Eastern time zone teams playing prime time West Coast games?
Speaker 1: Is that it yea absolutely And we actually have that
Speaker 1: several times this year because you know, our team like
Speaker 1: the forty Diners and the Rams both are doing well
Speaker 1: and so they've got a lot of primetime games. And
Speaker 1: when these teams host teams from the Eastern time zone,
Speaker 1: it's actually from a Circadian bi rhythm issue actually a
Speaker 1: much bigger deal uh than than people think, um in
Speaker 1: terms of it's more difficult for an East Coast team
Speaker 1: to play a prime time team in the West Coast
Speaker 1: than it is for West Coast team to go to
Speaker 1: the East Coast and play a one pm kickoff. So
Speaker 1: it used to be reversed, but that that East Coast
Speaker 1: playing West Coast is super super difficult. So example week
Speaker 1: for Philadelphia at San Francisco on a Sunday night, like
Speaker 1: those are the real difficulty. Uh, those are the real
Speaker 1: difficult games. Historically. By the way, a lot of what
Speaker 1: we're talking about is going to be baked into lines already,
Speaker 1: but it's little nuggets like that one right there that
Speaker 1: might not exactly be baked in. Because people are so
Speaker 1: concerned about the West Coast teams going to the East
Speaker 1: Coast early. Everybody knows about that, and that's baked in.
Speaker 1: It's those reverse ones that might not be baked into
Speaker 1: the lines. What about the notion of travel miles. We
Speaker 1: always hear all these people talking about, Oh, this team
Speaker 1: has the most travel miles. You have a cautionary note
Speaker 1: about that, Yeah, because nowadays it's probably happened the last
Speaker 1: couple of years. UH, teams are allowed to request us
Speaker 1: from the schedule makers that if they do have to
Speaker 1: play a couple of teams in the same location, like
Speaker 1: whether they're going to the East Coast or whether they're
Speaker 1: going to the West Coast, that they want to be
Speaker 1: able to play those games back to back so they
Speaker 1: don't have to come all the way back across the country.
Speaker 1: And a number of teams have actually requested that of
Speaker 1: the league, and the league has granted it. I think
Speaker 1: almost in every single one of the cases. So there's
Speaker 1: a number of teams, but a couple of examples occur
Speaker 1: between weeks two and three. UH, team like the Rams
Speaker 1: comes out east, a team like the forty comes out East.
Speaker 1: They're playing back to back opponents. In one case, they're
Speaker 1: playing at the same exact stadium. They play the Giants
Speaker 1: and the Jet in back to back weeks. The two
Speaker 1: teams share a stadium, so they're just staying out on
Speaker 1: the East Coast. So if you're looking at data and numbers,
Speaker 1: just like looking at travel miles of where teams located,
Speaker 1: where their opponents are, and just doing the map on that,
Speaker 1: that's not always going to account for the way these
Speaker 1: teams are scheduling their travel. Wait warrant, teams can request that.
Speaker 1: I have never heard that. Yes, that's true, up team,
Speaker 1: it's a true. Teams are able to request that now
Speaker 1: and the league has been pretty much granting it. And
Speaker 1: so there's been teams from the East Coast that has
Speaker 1: to go to the West Coast and play a couple
Speaker 1: of teams out there, like including the Seahawks that this
Speaker 1: season are being allowed to do those in back to
Speaker 1: back weeks and stay out West so um, it's it's
Speaker 1: definitely a thing that's started to happen. Yeah, alright, last thing,
Speaker 1: we got sixty seconds here, Warren U. Four teams play
Speaker 1: three straight row games without a bye this year, Arizona,
Speaker 1: New Orleans, New England, and Washington. Here are your numbers.
Speaker 1: Tell us the A T S on games one, two,
Speaker 1: and three of that subset. Well, just so you know,
Speaker 1: A T S in general of teams on the road
Speaker 1: cover the spread. Here, we've got fifty six percent cover
Speaker 1: in the first game, but in games two and three
Speaker 1: it drops well below the forty six. So what we're
Speaker 1: noting is that that first game, teams know they've got
Speaker 1: a tough road ahead three straight road games. Maybe the
Speaker 1: coach is getting them better mentally prepared, maybe they're doing
Speaker 1: good prep heading into that first road game. They do
Speaker 1: a little bit better in terms of performance. And this
Speaker 1: is over years and years. This isn't just a couple
Speaker 1: of years, so there's good data behind this. But when
Speaker 1: you go to games two and three, that's when it
Speaker 1: does take a toll. Prep falls off a little bit,
Speaker 1: focus in some cases falls off a little bit, and
Speaker 1: these teams end up doing worse than average. Yeah, dips
Speaker 1: from and then fort in weeks two and three. Of
Speaker 1: that's upset, Warren, appreciate it has always been best to
Speaker 1: you in the family, to your little girl at Sharp football.
Speaker 1: Thank you Warrant so much. Hey, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: De'll take care. Two