Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea and we're going to keep it short today.
Speaker 2: The news flow here just absolutely extraordinary. Is you know,
Speaker 2: you come in on a Wednesday before Christmas is sort
Speaker 2: of like you know, okay, there's CPI great service sector
Speaker 2: was a little bit higher. Excuse me, thank you Ira
Speaker 2: Jersey of Bloomberg Intelligence. There you know, like two minutes out,
Speaker 2: he's got the key statistics. Service sector inflation is running
Speaker 2: at a four and a half percent level. What else
Speaker 2: do you need to know? And you know it's great
Speaker 2: to see in the market lift here off of Apple
Speaker 2: and Broadcommon, the distraction of a grocery merger blowing up
Speaker 2: and to the as we tape this, I'm not sure
Speaker 2: if Mandoleese is going after Hershey Pennsylvania. I don't maybe
Speaker 2: they get the Hershey bears it as well. That's a
Speaker 2: hockey team for my childhood. Anyway, it's crazy day, so
Speaker 2: let's get to it quickly. Here Andrew Sheets joined from
Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley, and you know, to me, the great vector
Speaker 2: is is inflation flat. Good morning, Jim biarn'co. Brilliant call.
Speaker 2: Good morning, Lindsay Pieg's a brilliant call, Good morning, Mohammed Alarian,
Speaker 2: brilliant call. Or do we have a vector of disinflation
Speaker 2: Ander Sheets of Morgan Stanley.
Speaker 3: We do see disinflation in place, although you know not
Speaker 3: yet you know inflation is still holding up through the
Speaker 3: end of the year. Where we, I think are are
Speaker 3: a little bit more optimistic on inflation than the consensus
Speaker 3: is next year, where we see inflation coming down and
Speaker 3: I think importantly it's really coming down in the first
Speaker 3: half of the year, where for the incoming Trump administration,
Speaker 3: we think it's going to be a case where policy
Speaker 3: has kind of fast announcement but slow implementation. You don't
Speaker 3: get the inflationary effects of tariffs of immigration changes until
Speaker 3: kind of in the back half of twenty twenty five,
Speaker 3: and in the first part of the year. We think
Speaker 3: that a lot of inflation which is being driven by
Speaker 3: shelter auto insurance, that that can come down, that those
Speaker 3: series are running well ahead of where the real economy
Speaker 3: markets for those are, and that some of the difficult
Speaker 3: seasonality in January in February, which previously is boosted inflation,
Speaker 3: we think that actually sets an attractive bar that might
Speaker 3: make it a little bit easier for inflation to be
Speaker 3: a little bit better than expected. So we do see
Speaker 3: inflation coming down. We see that disinflation the first half
Speaker 3: of the year, and we think that will mean that
Speaker 3: the FED cuts not just this month but in January
Speaker 3: as well.
Speaker 2: Andre Sheets and Morgan Stanley with their call, and there's
Speaker 2: like eighteen other calls out there as well. But to
Speaker 2: Iira Jersey's point, I just am absolutely fascinated on an
Speaker 2: easy rate cut December eighteenth. Then what for the Fed
Speaker 2: is a huge opening question. It was great to have
Speaker 2: in the studios today Jay Brison of Wells Fargo Economics.
Speaker 2: Doctor Bryson was really really tentative given the uncertainties that
Speaker 2: are out there with a Wells Fargo call again looking
Speaker 2: for disinflation as well. She has been silent for I'm
Speaker 2: going to say three even four years. Elizabeth Economy is
Speaker 2: definitive on China. She has done public service for America
Speaker 2: with the Department of Congress, with Gina Romando being her
Speaker 2: important Asia advisor. Doctor Economy is now at Stanford University.
Speaker 2: It was great to get an update with her on
Speaker 2: the new revolution that is China.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not sure that there's really a way
Speaker 1: to buy at the line.
Speaker 4: I think there's a way to ensure that the United States,
Speaker 4: you know.
Speaker 1: Is the dragon.
Speaker 4: I guess in the sense that you know, what I
Speaker 4: think our message should be is that we're still looking
Speaker 4: toward US leadership on the global stage, right and US
Speaker 4: technological leadership and military leadership.
Speaker 1: I think, to me, what we want to do is
Speaker 1: to run faster. I sometimes worry that we over index
Speaker 1: on our defensive tools, and so that would be a concern.
Speaker 1: I think with President Trump and you know, sort of
Speaker 1: the approach of just letting more tariffs, I'd like to
Speaker 1: see US invest more, you know, in science and technologies.
Speaker 1: We're still waiting to see the science rart of the
Speaker 1: the Chips Act. I think that, to me is what
Speaker 1: the United States needs to do, and not simply say
Speaker 1: we don't want China to do this, stop China from
Speaker 1: doing that.
Speaker 2: Elizabeth Economy can't say enough about it work the Third Revolution.
Speaker 2: I read it cover to cover. It was I think
Speaker 2: my book of the Summer a couple of years ago
Speaker 2: is still very fresh on President Gee. Can't say enough
Speaker 2: about doctor Economy's work. Now it's Stanford. I thought it
Speaker 2: would be somewhat quiet today. I was wrong, wrong, wrong,
Speaker 2: please stay with us through the week and up to
Speaker 2: December eighteen FED meeting. I don't know what happens December nineteenth.
Speaker 2: Maybe we just roll up and go away, but I'll
Speaker 2: tell you it is really something to behold. Right now
Speaker 2: we are out on YouTube podcast. This is a single
Speaker 2: best idea sen