Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: He is absolutely unique as a president, president, former president, governor,
Speaker 2: vice chairman and chairman of the FED, and that no
Speaker 2: one in the multiple years I've been covering it synthesized
Speaker 2: Wall Street business and economics like Robert Kaplan. He was
Speaker 2: at the Dallas FED with a real sense of the
Speaker 2: border political economics, the heritage of the Dallas Fed around
Speaker 2: Robert McTeer and the Georgia School, their research capabilities, and
Speaker 2: were thrilled he could join us this morning for an
Speaker 2: extended conversation. It's been way too long, Robert. Let me
Speaker 2: cut to the chase. The definitive series, which Jerome Powell
Speaker 2: speaks of. Is the Dallas trim mean? You are expert
Speaker 2: on that with your research staff. Does the Dallas trim
Speaker 2: mean for Robert Kaplan? Does it indicate a vector of
Speaker 2: disinflation or a new worry back to the time of
Speaker 2: say Wayne Angel and a higher inflation rate.
Speaker 3: It probably suggests inflation is a new word sticky, meaning
Speaker 3: it's kind of going sideways.
Speaker 4: And we're not making improvement.
Speaker 3: And I would guess that if prices edge up a
Speaker 3: little bit, it's going to be more supply side issues
Speaker 3: from here than demand side issues.
Speaker 2: What I'm looking at, Robert Kaplan, is the ambiguity, the swirl,
Speaker 2: if you will, of American economics with our politics. Is
Speaker 2: the sum total of what our listeners and viewers understand
Speaker 2: on this Friday. Is it towards a depressed real GDP
Speaker 2: because of policy uncertainty.
Speaker 4: Yeah. So there are five big structural changes going on.
Speaker 3: That's a very unusual and just tick off. We're restructuring
Speaker 3: the way we do fiscal spending and it's going to
Speaker 3: have some jarring effect, but we're going to have less
Speaker 3: fiscal spending. If they succeed, that would tend to lower growth.
Speaker 3: We're going to do a regulatory review in every industry
Speaker 3: to try to produce more productivity growth That actually might
Speaker 3: be helpful. There's going to be an effort to control
Speaker 3: the workforce. Obviously, no more people coming in across the
Speaker 3: border entering the workforce, and we're going to deport That
Speaker 3: tends to lower growth unless we have an effort to
Speaker 3: revitalize legal immigration. And then we're going to try to
Speaker 3: restructure the energy ecosystem in this country to lower costs.
Speaker 4: That's probably helpful. And then the last thing is.
Speaker 3: The tariffs, and the tariffs have a price effect, but
Speaker 3: I would guess these terraffs and the uncertainty with them
Speaker 3: on margin lower growth.
Speaker 4: So you've got a bunch of.
Speaker 3: Cross currents, and I would guess the net of it
Speaker 3: all is I would guess, yeah, growth is probably slowing
Speaker 3: a little bit right now, and the uncertainty as well
Speaker 3: as when you cut government spending and you reduce workforce
Speaker 3: growth or you reduce the growth of it, you know,
Speaker 3: you limit you limit GDP growth. The effort is I
Speaker 3: don't know if that's that concerning, and that I think
Speaker 3: the effort of this administration is to try to create
Speaker 3: more organic, more private sector growth, less government led growth,
Speaker 3: so quote unquote healthier growth, but top line growth probably
Speaker 3: is going to be somewhat weaker, I would guess, so.
Speaker 1: Robert, giving that backdrop in the five big structural changes
Speaker 1: that you just outlined, if I'm the Federal Reserve, do
Speaker 1: I just sit on the sidelines and kind of let
Speaker 1: it all play out because the market is kind of
Speaker 1: suggesting that the Fed's not going to do a lot
Speaker 1: this year.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I think the right thing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the FED is quietly drifting state left, and that's Okay.
Speaker 3: The center stage is structural changes, executive branch changes away
Speaker 3: from the FED, and in a period like this, I
Speaker 3: think the wisest thing the FED could do, yes is
Speaker 3: be comfortable standing pat be careful about what they say,
Speaker 3: because I think commenting too definitively on how these structural
Speaker 3: changes are going to play out, it's too early to
Speaker 3: do it. Tariffs is a good example. We don't need
Speaker 3: to know what the tariffs are going to be. And
Speaker 3: so yeah, I think the Fed will do less. I
Speaker 3: think that's fine, and I think Jay Palell's communication on
Speaker 3: that has been good recently, where he's made clear we're
Speaker 3: in no hurry.
Speaker 4: And people should be prepared.
Speaker 3: Their focus should be more on what's going on the
Speaker 3: executive branch.
Speaker 4: And second comment I'd make, if.
Speaker 3: There's a rate I'm focused on, I'm much more focused
Speaker 3: on the ten year treasury rate than i am the
Speaker 3: Fed funds rate.
Speaker 1: Interesting. So, Robert, as we sit back here and we
Speaker 1: think about the economic backdrop.
Speaker 4: Here, how do you view the consumer right here?
Speaker 1: I mean, we've heard about and talked about and noticed
Speaker 1: in the data this K shaped economy.
Speaker 4: How do you think about the consumer. There's two big groups.
Speaker 3: It's confusing because there's two big groups, probably unlike maybe
Speaker 3: anything I've seen in my career. There's one group that's
Speaker 3: sixty five that's rough numbers, sixty five seventy million workers
Speaker 3: that make fifty five grand a year or less, and
Speaker 3: they are struggling to make ends meet. They've lost at
Speaker 3: least twenty five percent purchasing power. They don't tend to
Speaker 3: own financial assets. That group is spending, but they're watching
Speaker 3: every dollar they're going to McDonald's and they're agonizing over
Speaker 3: even McDonald's trading down. That's sixty five to seventy million
Speaker 3: workers and consumers. There's another sixty five to seventy million
Speaker 3: consumers fifty five and older, own their home, have a
Speaker 3: fixed rate mortgage, half financial assets, and this recent period
Speaker 3: has been pretty good. Yes, there's infliction, but their financial
Speaker 3: appreciation their financial.
Speaker 4: Assets is offset it.
Speaker 3: And because their mortgage is fixed, they're really not that
Speaker 3: sensitive to higher rates, and they are spending much more aggressive,
Speaker 3: I guess, aggressively on services and other products. And that's
Speaker 3: why when you see corporate earnings reports, it's confusing.
Speaker 4: Which of these two groups are you serving.
Speaker 3: If you're serving that first group, you're likely seeing a
Speaker 3: much more challenging business. If you're serving the second group,
Speaker 3: you know, business looks better to you.
Speaker 2: Robert Kaplan with us, of course, the vice chairman of
Speaker 2: Golden Sachs, with far More's relationship with the Dallas Fed,
Speaker 2: all sorts of academics through the year, his Harvard. We're
Speaker 2: thrill these with us, and we said good morning to
Speaker 2: you on YouTube in your home, at your office, all
Speaker 2: of gold and Sacks tuned in on YouTube. I mean,
Speaker 2: you know that's happening right now. Robert Capplin I got
Speaker 2: in the New Foreign Affairs last night. It's a very
Speaker 2: strong issue, folks in these tumultuous times. Marianna Mazakata, who
Speaker 2: Robert Kaplan is not on the same page with the
Speaker 2: esteemed left economist, huge economic history student Marianna Mazacato with
Speaker 2: a wonderful essay.
Speaker 4: Of where we need to go.
Speaker 2: And Robert Caplan. I'm sure you don't agree with all
Speaker 2: that Professor Mazacata wrote up in the New Foreign Affairs.
Speaker 2: But the one thing she talked about, you're the most
Speaker 2: qualified person I know is the financialization that we've seen
Speaker 2: in the last ten, twenty, even thirty years, even before
Speaker 2: the Great financial crisis. How do you explain the financialization
Speaker 2: of the American culture and the winners you just described
Speaker 2: in the millions of losers out there that are a reality.
Speaker 3: Well, so I'll put it. I'll put it this way.
Speaker 3: And you've heard me talk about this before. I listen,
Speaker 3: I work on an a firm now, and we run
Speaker 3: a business, and I've run other businesses. Human capital is
Speaker 3: the most important asset you have. And that's true for
Speaker 3: the United States, it's true for the state of Texas
Speaker 3: and so on. And early childhood literacy, secondary education, skills, training,
Speaker 3: a digital divide, allowing people to be more productive that
Speaker 3: is key to a growing middle class in building the economy.
Speaker 3: And what we're seeing a little bit in the last
Speaker 3: number of years is a divergence financially between that I
Speaker 3: just mentioned.
Speaker 4: Those two groups working people.
Speaker 3: That don't take government money have probably been employed, done
Speaker 3: everything right their whole career, but they don't have a
Speaker 3: lot of savings. They may not own their home, and
Speaker 3: they're reading in the newspaper about another group of people
Speaker 3: out there who are rising by bounds in terms of
Speaker 3: their financial wealth and financial assets. And it seems like
Speaker 3: capitalism isn't quite working for them, and I think education
Speaker 3: is one of the vehicles to try to address this.
Speaker 3: But one of the issues with decelerating workforce growth is
Speaker 3: education tends to be paid for at the state level
Speaker 3: and city level. If you're a growing city or state,
Speaker 3: you got the money to spend on getting affordable childcare,
Speaker 3: full day versus half day, pre K.
Speaker 4: All these critical things.
Speaker 3: But if you're in a state which is probably forty
Speaker 3: plus states whose populations are flat.
Speaker 4: To down, you may not have the money.
Speaker 3: And then philanthropy, which I'm actively involved in, can help
Speaker 3: pick up the slack. But but I think we should be
Speaker 3: focusing more on our human capital and a little less
Speaker 3: on financial er and Paul.
Speaker 2: That's the common ground between Mazocato and Kaplin, no question
Speaker 2: about that. The individual education effort.
Speaker 1: Robert, I know in your role as vice chairman of
Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs, who speak to CEOs around the world, what
Speaker 1: is their view of I don't know, the ability to
Speaker 1: take risk to maybe think about M and A as
Speaker 1: a growth scenario. Where are they in terms of how
Speaker 1: they feel about their business and their ability to take
Speaker 1: risk over the next couple of years.
Speaker 3: Okay, So on the positive side, I think the prospect
Speaker 3: of a more balanced regulatory environment, more cost benefit analysis,
Speaker 3: more in their words, more sensible regulation. They're they're okay
Speaker 3: with tough regulation, but there has to be a rationale
Speaker 3: for it. I think they're excited about that. On the
Speaker 3: other hand, they're dealing with another They're dealing with the
Speaker 3: Trey uncertainty. And if you're going to domicile more manufacturing,
Speaker 3: for example in the United States, you really need the
Speaker 3: corridor of Mexico and Canada for integrated supply.
Speaker 4: Chains and logistics.
Speaker 3: And when they see threat of tariffs on for example, Mexico,
Speaker 3: which they hope doesn't happen, which could undermine logistics and
Speaker 3: supply chains, it gives them pause and makes them want
Speaker 3: to just slow down a little bit and be more careful.
Speaker 3: And the other big thing is AI and technology. Now
Speaker 3: we've had technology innovation for years, but if you're a
Speaker 3: CEO right now, you've got to spend on AI in
Speaker 3: your business. You're not sure which use cases will work
Speaker 3: and which won't, but you got to do it. And
Speaker 3: so I think you're going to see though a lot
Speaker 3: of merger activity by companies who feel that, boy, if
Speaker 3: we're going to take scheer in the years ahead. If
Speaker 3: we're going to grow in the years ahead, we're more
Speaker 3: likely to have to take share, and we're gonna have
Speaker 3: size and scale, and the ability to ford AI investment
Speaker 3: is more important than its ever and I think you're
Speaker 3: going to see a desire for many companies bigger to
Speaker 3: try to deal with that.
Speaker 2: I gotta squeeze this in too important. There seems to
Speaker 2: be another threat happens every two, three, five years. It's
Speaker 2: not specific to mister Trump on FED independence. How does
Speaker 2: the institution of the Fed, mister Kaplan protect itself and
Speaker 2: stay independent versus the McChesney Martin challenges decades ago.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: So the thing that's always challenging at the FED, and
Speaker 3: this isn't new, is regulatory supervisory policy at the FED
Speaker 3: is not politically independent and has not been independent. The
Speaker 3: tilt of it changes whether it's Obama to Trump, then
Speaker 3: back to Biden, now back to Trump. And that you'll
Speaker 3: see on setting the FED funds rate though, and the
Speaker 3: stance of monetary policy. I think it's critical of this
Speaker 3: country that stay political independent. Now the president can jawbone
Speaker 3: and pressure and that's not new. May be more intense
Speaker 3: right now, and the FED will do its job and
Speaker 3: should to try to extent. They can't ignore that make
Speaker 3: decisions only. The biggest threat to the FED, I actually
Speaker 3: think sometimes is not from outside. Then you have to
Speaker 3: be careful as a governor or a president. Don't try
Speaker 3: to say things publicly you think might go over better,
Speaker 3: or worry about the pressure. Just do what you think
Speaker 3: is right. And as long as they manage themselves, I
Speaker 3: think they'll go through this in an independent way.
Speaker 2: Out of time, Robert Kaplin, next time you're on, We're
Speaker 2: doing a complete hour on do.
Speaker 4: We need the docks?
Speaker 2: Robert Kaplan of the Dallas Fed, always in forever and
Speaker 2: now vice chairman of his Goldman Sachs