WEBVTT - Goldman Sach's Robert Kaplan Talks Monetary Policy

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>He is absolutely unique as a president, president, former president, governor,

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<v Speaker 2>vice chairman and chairman of the FED, and that no

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<v Speaker 2>one in the multiple years I've been covering it synthesized

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<v Speaker 2>Wall Street business and economics like Robert Kaplan. He was

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<v Speaker 2>at the Dallas FED with a real sense of the

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<v Speaker 2>border political economics, the heritage of the Dallas Fed around

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<v Speaker 2>Robert McTeer and the Georgia School, their research capabilities, and

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<v Speaker 2>were thrilled he could join us this morning for an

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<v Speaker 2>extended conversation. It's been way too long, Robert. Let me

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<v Speaker 2>cut to the chase. The definitive series, which Jerome Powell

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<v Speaker 2>speaks of. Is the Dallas trim mean? You are expert

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<v Speaker 2>on that with your research staff. Does the Dallas trim

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<v Speaker 2>mean for Robert Kaplan? Does it indicate a vector of

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<v Speaker 2>disinflation or a new worry back to the time of

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<v Speaker 2>say Wayne Angel and a higher inflation rate.

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<v Speaker 3>It probably suggests inflation is a new word sticky, meaning

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<v Speaker 3>it's kind of going sideways.

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<v Speaker 4>And we're not making improvement.

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<v Speaker 3>And I would guess that if prices edge up a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit, it's going to be more supply side issues

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<v Speaker 3>from here than demand side issues.

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<v Speaker 2>What I'm looking at, Robert Kaplan, is the ambiguity, the swirl,

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<v Speaker 2>if you will, of American economics with our politics. Is

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<v Speaker 2>the sum total of what our listeners and viewers understand

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<v Speaker 2>on this Friday. Is it towards a depressed real GDP

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<v Speaker 2>because of policy uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah. So there are five big structural changes going on.

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<v Speaker 3>That's a very unusual and just tick off. We're restructuring

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<v Speaker 3>the way we do fiscal spending and it's going to

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<v Speaker 3>have some jarring effect, but we're going to have less

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<v Speaker 3>fiscal spending. If they succeed, that would tend to lower growth.

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<v Speaker 3>We're going to do a regulatory review in every industry

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<v Speaker 3>to try to produce more productivity growth That actually might

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<v Speaker 3>be helpful. There's going to be an effort to control

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<v Speaker 3>the workforce. Obviously, no more people coming in across the

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<v Speaker 3>border entering the workforce, and we're going to deport That

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<v Speaker 3>tends to lower growth unless we have an effort to

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<v Speaker 3>revitalize legal immigration. And then we're going to try to

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<v Speaker 3>restructure the energy ecosystem in this country to lower costs.

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<v Speaker 4>That's probably helpful. And then the last thing is.

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<v Speaker 3>The tariffs, and the tariffs have a price effect, but

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<v Speaker 3>I would guess these terraffs and the uncertainty with them

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<v Speaker 3>on margin lower growth.

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<v Speaker 4>So you've got a bunch of.

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<v Speaker 3>Cross currents, and I would guess the net of it

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<v Speaker 3>all is I would guess, yeah, growth is probably slowing

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<v Speaker 3>a little bit right now, and the uncertainty as well

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<v Speaker 3>as when you cut government spending and you reduce workforce

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<v Speaker 3>growth or you reduce the growth of it, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>you limit you limit GDP growth. The effort is I

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<v Speaker 3>don't know if that's that concerning, and that I think

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<v Speaker 3>the effort of this administration is to try to create

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<v Speaker 3>more organic, more private sector growth, less government led growth,

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<v Speaker 3>so quote unquote healthier growth, but top line growth probably

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<v Speaker 3>is going to be somewhat weaker, I would guess, so.

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<v Speaker 1>Robert, giving that backdrop in the five big structural changes

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<v Speaker 1>that you just outlined, if I'm the Federal Reserve, do

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<v Speaker 1>I just sit on the sidelines and kind of let

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<v Speaker 1>it all play out because the market is kind of

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<v Speaker 1>suggesting that the Fed's not going to do a lot

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<v Speaker 1>this year.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, yeah, I think the right thing.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the FED is quietly drifting state left, and that's Okay.

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<v Speaker 3>The center stage is structural changes, executive branch changes away

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<v Speaker 3>from the FED, and in a period like this, I

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<v Speaker 3>think the wisest thing the FED could do, yes is

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<v Speaker 3>be comfortable standing pat be careful about what they say,

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<v Speaker 3>because I think commenting too definitively on how these structural

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<v Speaker 3>changes are going to play out, it's too early to

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<v Speaker 3>do it. Tariffs is a good example. We don't need

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<v Speaker 3>to know what the tariffs are going to be. And

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<v Speaker 3>so yeah, I think the Fed will do less. I

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<v Speaker 3>think that's fine, and I think Jay Palell's communication on

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<v Speaker 3>that has been good recently, where he's made clear we're

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<v Speaker 3>in no hurry.

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<v Speaker 4>And people should be prepared.

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<v Speaker 3>Their focus should be more on what's going on the

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<v Speaker 3>executive branch.

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<v Speaker 4>And second comment I'd make, if.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a rate I'm focused on, I'm much more focused

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<v Speaker 3>on the ten year treasury rate than i am the

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<v Speaker 3>Fed funds rate.

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<v Speaker 1>Interesting. So, Robert, as we sit back here and we

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<v Speaker 1>think about the economic backdrop.

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<v Speaker 4>Here, how do you view the consumer right here?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we've heard about and talked about and noticed

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<v Speaker 1>in the data this K shaped economy.

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<v Speaker 4>How do you think about the consumer. There's two big groups.

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<v Speaker 3>It's confusing because there's two big groups, probably unlike maybe

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<v Speaker 3>anything I've seen in my career. There's one group that's

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<v Speaker 3>sixty five that's rough numbers, sixty five seventy million workers

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<v Speaker 3>that make fifty five grand a year or less, and

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<v Speaker 3>they are struggling to make ends meet. They've lost at

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<v Speaker 3>least twenty five percent purchasing power. They don't tend to

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<v Speaker 3>own financial assets. That group is spending, but they're watching

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<v Speaker 3>every dollar they're going to McDonald's and they're agonizing over

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<v Speaker 3>even McDonald's trading down. That's sixty five to seventy million

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<v Speaker 3>workers and consumers. There's another sixty five to seventy million

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<v Speaker 3>consumers fifty five and older, own their home, have a

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<v Speaker 3>fixed rate mortgage, half financial assets, and this recent period

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<v Speaker 3>has been pretty good. Yes, there's infliction, but their financial

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<v Speaker 3>appreciation their financial.

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<v Speaker 4>Assets is offset it.

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<v Speaker 3>And because their mortgage is fixed, they're really not that

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<v Speaker 3>sensitive to higher rates, and they are spending much more aggressive,

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<v Speaker 3>I guess, aggressively on services and other products. And that's

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<v Speaker 3>why when you see corporate earnings reports, it's confusing.

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<v Speaker 4>Which of these two groups are you serving.

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<v Speaker 3>If you're serving that first group, you're likely seeing a

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<v Speaker 3>much more challenging business. If you're serving the second group,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, business looks better to you.

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<v Speaker 2>Robert Kaplan with us, of course, the vice chairman of

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<v Speaker 2>Golden Sachs, with far More's relationship with the Dallas Fed,

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<v Speaker 2>all sorts of academics through the year, his Harvard. We're

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<v Speaker 2>thrill these with us, and we said good morning to

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<v Speaker 2>you on YouTube in your home, at your office, all

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<v Speaker 2>of gold and Sacks tuned in on YouTube. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>you know that's happening right now. Robert Capplin I got

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<v Speaker 2>in the New Foreign Affairs last night. It's a very

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<v Speaker 2>strong issue, folks in these tumultuous times. Marianna Mazakata, who

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<v Speaker 2>Robert Kaplan is not on the same page with the

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<v Speaker 2>esteemed left economist, huge economic history student Marianna Mazacato with

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<v Speaker 2>a wonderful essay.

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<v Speaker 4>Of where we need to go.

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<v Speaker 2>And Robert Caplan. I'm sure you don't agree with all

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<v Speaker 2>that Professor Mazacata wrote up in the New Foreign Affairs.

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<v Speaker 2>But the one thing she talked about, you're the most

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<v Speaker 2>qualified person I know is the financialization that we've seen

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<v Speaker 2>in the last ten, twenty, even thirty years, even before

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<v Speaker 2>the Great financial crisis. How do you explain the financialization

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<v Speaker 2>of the American culture and the winners you just described

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<v Speaker 2>in the millions of losers out there that are a reality.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, so I'll put it. I'll put it this way.

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<v Speaker 3>And you've heard me talk about this before. I listen,

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<v Speaker 3>I work on an a firm now, and we run

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<v Speaker 3>a business, and I've run other businesses. Human capital is

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<v Speaker 3>the most important asset you have. And that's true for

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<v Speaker 3>the United States, it's true for the state of Texas

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<v Speaker 3>and so on. And early childhood literacy, secondary education, skills, training,

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<v Speaker 3>a digital divide, allowing people to be more productive that

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<v Speaker 3>is key to a growing middle class in building the economy.

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<v Speaker 3>And what we're seeing a little bit in the last

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<v Speaker 3>number of years is a divergence financially between that I

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<v Speaker 3>just mentioned.

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<v Speaker 4>Those two groups working people.

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<v Speaker 3>That don't take government money have probably been employed, done

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<v Speaker 3>everything right their whole career, but they don't have a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of savings. They may not own their home, and

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<v Speaker 3>they're reading in the newspaper about another group of people

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<v Speaker 3>out there who are rising by bounds in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>their financial wealth and financial assets. And it seems like

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<v Speaker 3>capitalism isn't quite working for them, and I think education

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<v Speaker 3>is one of the vehicles to try to address this.

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<v Speaker 3>But one of the issues with decelerating workforce growth is

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<v Speaker 3>education tends to be paid for at the state level

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<v Speaker 3>and city level. If you're a growing city or state,

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<v Speaker 3>you got the money to spend on getting affordable childcare,

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<v Speaker 3>full day versus half day, pre K.

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<v Speaker 4>All these critical things.

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<v Speaker 3>But if you're in a state which is probably forty

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<v Speaker 3>plus states whose populations are flat.

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<v Speaker 4>To down, you may not have the money.

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<v Speaker 3>And then philanthropy, which I'm actively involved in, can help

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<v Speaker 3>pick up the slack. But but I think we should be

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<v Speaker 3>focusing more on our human capital and a little less

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<v Speaker 3>on financial er and Paul.

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<v Speaker 2>That's the common ground between Mazocato and Kaplin, no question

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<v Speaker 2>about that. The individual education effort.

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<v Speaker 1>Robert, I know in your role as vice chairman of

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<v Speaker 1>Goldman Sachs, who speak to CEOs around the world, what

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<v Speaker 1>is their view of I don't know, the ability to

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<v Speaker 1>take risk to maybe think about M and A as

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<v Speaker 1>a growth scenario. Where are they in terms of how

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<v Speaker 1>they feel about their business and their ability to take

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<v Speaker 1>risk over the next couple of years.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, So on the positive side, I think the prospect

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<v Speaker 3>of a more balanced regulatory environment, more cost benefit analysis,

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<v Speaker 3>more in their words, more sensible regulation. They're they're okay

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<v Speaker 3>with tough regulation, but there has to be a rationale

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<v Speaker 3>for it. I think they're excited about that. On the

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<v Speaker 3>other hand, they're dealing with another They're dealing with the

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<v Speaker 3>Trey uncertainty. And if you're going to domicile more manufacturing,

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<v Speaker 3>for example in the United States, you really need the

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<v Speaker 3>corridor of Mexico and Canada for integrated supply.

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<v Speaker 4>Chains and logistics.

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<v Speaker 3>And when they see threat of tariffs on for example, Mexico,

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<v Speaker 3>which they hope doesn't happen, which could undermine logistics and

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<v Speaker 3>supply chains, it gives them pause and makes them want

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<v Speaker 3>to just slow down a little bit and be more careful.

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<v Speaker 3>And the other big thing is AI and technology. Now

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<v Speaker 3>we've had technology innovation for years, but if you're a

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<v Speaker 3>CEO right now, you've got to spend on AI in

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<v Speaker 3>your business. You're not sure which use cases will work

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<v Speaker 3>and which won't, but you got to do it. And

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<v Speaker 3>so I think you're going to see though a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of merger activity by companies who feel that, boy, if

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to take scheer in the years ahead. If

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to grow in the years ahead, we're more

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<v Speaker 3>likely to have to take share, and we're gonna have

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<v Speaker 3>size and scale, and the ability to ford AI investment

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<v Speaker 3>is more important than its ever and I think you're

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<v Speaker 3>going to see a desire for many companies bigger to

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<v Speaker 3>try to deal with that.

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<v Speaker 2>I gotta squeeze this in too important. There seems to

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<v Speaker 2>be another threat happens every two, three, five years. It's

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<v Speaker 2>not specific to mister Trump on FED independence. How does

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<v Speaker 2>the institution of the Fed, mister Kaplan protect itself and

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<v Speaker 2>stay independent versus the McChesney Martin challenges decades ago.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>So the thing that's always challenging at the FED, and

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<v Speaker 3>this isn't new, is regulatory supervisory policy at the FED

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<v Speaker 3>is not politically independent and has not been independent. The

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<v Speaker 3>tilt of it changes whether it's Obama to Trump, then

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<v Speaker 3>back to Biden, now back to Trump. And that you'll

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<v Speaker 3>see on setting the FED funds rate though, and the

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<v Speaker 3>stance of monetary policy. I think it's critical of this

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<v Speaker 3>country that stay political independent. Now the president can jawbone

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<v Speaker 3>and pressure and that's not new. May be more intense

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<v Speaker 3>right now, and the FED will do its job and

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<v Speaker 3>should to try to extent. They can't ignore that make

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<v Speaker 3>decisions only. The biggest threat to the FED, I actually

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<v Speaker 3>think sometimes is not from outside. Then you have to

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<v Speaker 3>be careful as a governor or a president. Don't try

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<v Speaker 3>to say things publicly you think might go over better,

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<v Speaker 3>or worry about the pressure. Just do what you think

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<v Speaker 3>is right. And as long as they manage themselves, I

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<v Speaker 3>think they'll go through this in an independent way.

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<v Speaker 2>Out of time, Robert Kaplin, next time you're on, We're

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<v Speaker 2>doing a complete hour on do.

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<v Speaker 4>We need the docks?

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<v Speaker 2>Robert Kaplan of the Dallas Fed, always in forever and

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<v Speaker 2>now vice chairman of his Goldman Sachs