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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Julian Emmanuel with us with Evercore SI right now. I love this phrase endgame elements. What's an endgame element? And then get well?

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Speaker 3: First of all, the endgame is to thank you at to start out for after a month plus of World Cup, you have refocused the country on I have sports rivalry, the sports rivalry of all time, the one that really matters Yankees. Ready, that's the endgame of the world Joy.

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Speaker 2: Last night to listen to I think w E and Boston will in the team and nobody was pulling a jersey, nobody was stepping up somebody's ankle. You know, they have their moments, but it was great. Continue. What's an endgame element?

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Speaker 3: So the question is is that in this environment where we know that AI is dominating as an investment theme, where we know we're on course for political change in the fall, where we know that earnings have been unprecedentedly strong.

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Speaker 4: Is there.

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Speaker 3: How does the endgame develop? And a lot of the questions that we've been fielding is does this have to end like it ended in Y two K And our answer is decidedly it doesn't because earnings are good and oh, by the way, you look at this year, value is out performing growth, the stock market is very strong, and the economy is solid.

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Speaker 5: So, Julian, we're getting into the teeth here of the second quarter earnings.

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Speaker 2: First quarter earnings were.

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Speaker 5: Just extraordinary across the S and P of five hundred. Bar's pretty high for the second quarter as well. How do you feel about earnings?

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Speaker 3: It's going to be great again? Okay, okay, we know that, which is why essentially as the season has started, you've had mixed reactions to earnings reports, and that's actually been a feature of the majority of this ball market. But ultimately, for us, what we think investors will likely do is refocus on the stocks and the areas that have been sort of laggereds and that are going to report great earnings. And oh, by the way, that's large cap tech.

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Speaker 2: Large cap tech.

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Speaker 5: So where in large cap tech, I mean Tom and I we talk about the software stocks all the time, like a Microsoft down twenty percent. You just you rarely see that type of performance over any meaningful period of time.

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Speaker 2: How about so many software names?

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Speaker 3: What software is going to be picked too? Okay, okay, but but broadly, uh, you know, when you think about the mag seven, they have been punished already for what we're going to find out this uh, this reporting period, that free cash flow because of the AI build out is likely to cross below the zero line stocks of discount.

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Speaker 2: I just want everybody worldwide to know that all three of us have what I call air conditioned throat, which is in the summer, and you were saying this, this room is very cool because of all the electronic equipment that and then you go home where missus Keene has an Iceberg and then you get the Uber where it's you know, can be hit or miss Iceberg, and none of us can speak this morning in advance apologize, I'm looking at Amazon. Paul Sweeney taught me how to do this. You can see on page two of the dees screen the description screen. Tom Sekunda taught me how to use the screen. The institutional ownership, the evercourt nails this are they under owned? Are the mag seven? You know when you look at percentages of index funds and all that. Are they under owned by the long only by side?

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Speaker 3: They are, There's no question about it. And not only are they undernwoned by the long only by side, they also have been reasonably active shorts from the hedge funds. And we all know that it's very frequently the case. Certainly it was the case at the beginning of April that the most vigorous rallies start with short covering, and we think we're going to see that this earning season.

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Speaker 5: What are we going to see from the Federal Reserve? We've heard mister Warsh a couple of times down public inflation is quote unquote intolerable from his perspective, So it seems like the focus is on inflation.

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Speaker 2: What do you guys expect from the Fed?

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Speaker 3: So we don't think you're going to get anything next week. But the problem for Warsh is twofold number one. The escalation with Iran has sent oil to a level that's ninety a barrel brent cruise right exactly. And then you mentioned it at the top of the hour, the ten year yield is getting to an uncomfortable place. Uh, And it looks to us like you know, actually the US has been best behaved, but it looks like you're on the verge of another global breakout higher in long term meal, it's and that's a problem for across America.

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Speaker 2: This morning, Julian Emmanuel joins us ever court, I s I thank you for listening to what you choose to listen to us on YouTube, building growing each and every day. Humbled by the length of listening on YouTube. What Colum of the Twins told me, people have it on their phone. They're listening to YouTube while they're driving, and they turn the phone over so they can't peak, and they just listen to my lousy voice, perfect perfect. You know, it's it's you know.

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Speaker 6: That's how we roll.

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Speaker 2: It's how we roll. Paul Sweeney with Julian Emmanuel.

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Speaker 5: Julian, what screen for you guys, whether it's a sector or a factor, what's the screening off for you guys these days?

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Speaker 3: So what's fascinating again is we are in one of these rare environments where value stocks are outperforming growth in a tape where the index is up on the year, and that is rare. But for us, what's even more fascinating is that within that there are a universe of stocks which we refer to as negative beta. They're mostly value, but day in and day out, they've been correlating inversely to the S and P five hundred. And it is in a world where AI has become a predominant investment theme, truly portfolio of diversification.

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Speaker 2: I want you to talk about what you put your name at the top, but it's Michael Chu, Barack Hurwitz and Stephen Vendozi doing all the work you ever report folks get it from Evercore Isi. It's the best thing on the street. Earning's edge and it's a big long paragraph here. What's the tone so far? Is it a revenue edge? Is it a down the income statement edge? What's the distinction so far that you publish in that doc.

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Speaker 3: Well, the distinction again is that both both revenue and you know, and earnings are just absolutely unprecedented. And again I referred to this idea that we're going to find out that hyperscalers will probably cross the zero line in terms of free cash flow. But guess what the rest of the S and P five hundred continues to move towards record free cash flow.

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Speaker 2: Julian Emmanuel, thank you so much, really really appreciate it. Ever for isi stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or what us Live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Barbara during jus right now with a really interesting pedigree in Wall Street, BDA Capital Partners here in wealth management, but also lots of work over time with, among others, Laban Thought and Lehman Brothers is as well. Barbara, what are you doing with alternative investments? I mean, Paul and I are observing another fear missing out pop the nansdack up one point two percent on futures. Are people in general feel locked into alternatives?

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Speaker 6: In terms of alternatives if you mean private equity, yes, I mean there's liquidity issues there, but there's also alternative investments include hedge funds and other things. But I don't know if they feel locked in. I think right now the issue in the markets, you're at a twenty two times pe. You're seeing incredible volatility as rotation out of some of the high flyers and then back again because their profit profile is strong, you know, is going to gettinue, and also worries about when the Fed hikes and what happens with earnings. And I think right now, even though last week, for instance, you saw very strong earnings from the banks, the United air was talking about premium pricing. Today you had GM people are holding up, but a lot of this is largely discounted. So I think you're going to see continued volatility here in the market. So people are looking at alternative investments is a different correlation and perhaps less volatility in the short run.

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Speaker 5: Barbara, what if for your clients, what do you think is a reasonable allocation to alternatives, Well, it.

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Speaker 4: Depends what kind of returns you're looking for.

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Speaker 6: If your clients are really looking to build, you know, for the highest maximum return, I think stocks really are long term the way to be. But if you're looking for low correlation aspects, it's got to be in the alternative investments. And so it depends, you know, on the size of the client, but it can be anywhere from fifteen to twenty five percent.

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Speaker 5: So we're in alternative I mean, you know, it used to be just kind of hedge funds, maybe a little private equity, but now private credits become such a big part of the alts market real assets as well. Where do you think in the alternative space offers the best maybe rich reward for your clients.

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Speaker 4: Well, private credit and private loaning.

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Speaker 6: It's been around now since the eight when the banks had to get out of that business, and so the returns are down, but they're still higher than what you can get, say in treasuries, So I think you still have to be there. I think in private you know, in venture capital funds or private equity funds, those got to be a long term lock up and so it really depends on the client profile there. But I think you have to continue to look at private credit. Hedge funds, it depends, you know. Again, hedge funds had their heyday long short you know, in the in the nineties, and so if you want low, low correlation and decent returns, still hitche funds.

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Speaker 2: Paul, can you just one more adult responsible question, because I have so many other questions.

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Speaker 5: From what role does fixing complay for you and your clients these days? Because some of the coupons just in the treasury market look great, and if you want to take some credit risk even better than that.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, because in the credit risk area even you know, some of the junk bond or the low credit because there's been such load default rates. So you can go you know, further down and take a little bit more risk what seems to be risk in the credit area. Because of that, I think you've got you can get higher yields five to six percent.

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Speaker 4: So again it can be a ballast.

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Speaker 6: To an equity portfolio, which equities are always going to be more volatile in the short run, and so it could be a way to stabilize a portfolio and so that you have this constant, steady returns.

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Speaker 2: Barbara, there is a magical door on a side street in Manhattan, and if you stumble into it, as I did once on a summer's day, you are sitting in the history of the Explorers Club. You've just been named the president of one of the most prestigious organizations in science in exploration in the world. Give us an update there on the Explorers Club. That goes back to Neil Armstrong, and I would guess back to Teddy Roosevelt as well.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know Teddy Roosevelt, you know, wasn't member.

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Speaker 6: In fact, The funny thing that we always chuckle thatot is in his application to the club. You know, he was giving his exploration cred and President of the United States was well down, you know, on the application. But the club actually started in nineteen oh four, and it was started by what you think it was, the classical explorer type, see.

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Speaker 4: The polar in the north, north Pole, the South Pole, those guys who were the first to get there.

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Speaker 6: And they started as a way to have camaraderie and talk and share their experiences. And so at that time though they established you know, incorporated or whatever the legal structure was then, but said their mission was to support general exploration, share that knowledge, focus on library and archives, but also to develop camaraderie, and as they said at those days, to develop the bonds of good fellowship, which is what we try to do today.

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Speaker 4: You know all that that mission is very much intact.

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Speaker 2: Are there bonds of good fellowship at Penn State? D one? Lacrosse? I mean you were all American and lacrosse back on the sport was just exploding into side. Give us, as a former member of the board of Trustees of Penn State, give us an update on their athletics.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, the big change for us.

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Speaker 6: You know, we're part of the Big Ten Football conference and obviously Penn State's a big football school. In fact, we have one of the largest stadiums. You know, we're proud of that, one hundred and nine thousand, you know people. But the big change last fall was the football coach and that's a big deal. And so you know, we're all waiting to see what happens because it came at an awkward time in terms of recruiting and that sort of thing, you know.

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Speaker 4: But the athletics department, of course, nil.

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Speaker 6: And there's major changes of college sports, which I think a lot of We're still a lot of schools are working out. It's really changing the complexion and you're seeing everybody fighting the money can Certainly it's a question about women's sports, you know, who gets what shared?

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Speaker 2: Exactly? Can you imagine Paul the nil Barbara dura off back you would have would have taken down in lacrosse and field hockey, you know exactly.

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Speaker 4: So well, I'm not so sure those sports would have gotten a lot. But you do see women's basketball, oh yeah.

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Speaker 6: You know, really getting a major share even you know, Penn stated women's basketball has not been one of the top teams. Hopefully we have a new coach and we'll get there. But some of those players are making some pretty have.

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Speaker 5: To absolutely staying in college as opposed to going pro. Barbara, what's the What's the question you're getting from your clients these days? Is it that wait, the market's so high, so fast, and I'm concerned here or I feel like I've missed out what what's the question you're getting from your clients?

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Speaker 6: No, you you know, it's very interesting you asked that because just a few days ago out a client, you know, right, and say, hey, you know, it seems that high pees and all these hipheline stocks.

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Speaker 4: What do you think you know?

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Speaker 6: My response there was, you know that this the stock market, Yes, is the twenty two.

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Speaker 4: It was at twenty three at year end. But a lot of these high flyers.

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Speaker 6: We've seen this the last two years where you know, the NVIDIAs of the world get knocked down periodically profit taking, you know, which makes sense. They run up, you know, beyond where they you know, may be in the short term and rotat into laggards, into value stocks. But then because the growth profile is very much attacked, the money starts to come back, and certainly you saw that in spades this last week or so.

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Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 6: One of the things that was interesting when the SpaceX, you know, IPO is coming. I had a number of inquiries you know, about that and how can they participate in My recommendation uniformly was do not get into that. You know, when you see that massive size and also the amount allocated to retail, you know, and also when you look at the fundamental profile and how long it will take to make money in the cashflow, and also all the lack of stock that's coming out. I said, way, I have one client who insisted, and so I'm not saying a word.

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Speaker 2: But anyway, Barbara, thanks you think so much, and particularly your public service as president of the Explorers Club. Barbara during with Us year this morning, Folks, CEO of BD eight Capital Partners, stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

00:16:26
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch US Live on YouTube.

00:16:38
Speaker 2: Is with that question, the research Note of the day. I'm sorry, Julian Mmanuel drob Sack and knocking off the pedestal here. He's a pagim and it is a shockingly terse note on three rate increases. You don't mince words. You think consensus is just flat out wrong.

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Speaker 7: Yeah. I mean, when we look at in Fleah, which is really what's driving Fed policy, all the fundamentals to us point toward upside risks to inflation. You have above trend GDP growth, we have a labor market we think is heating up. We have a range of supply side challenges energy but also in trade, labor, all these things where you think are going to keep inflation elevated.

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Speaker 2: And the Fed hawk I quoted Orzag and Posen I think it was in January maybe my note of the year, but they are with you. Looking for sustained lift is because of labor market pulling in to the Orzag Posen wage growth that gets us there.

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Speaker 7: That is part of it. You know, one of the most concerning parts of inflation are what we're seeing in non shelter services. That's the majority of core PCE, which is what the Fed's looking at, and that's running at high levels, shown no progress over the last year, and we think the labor market is tightening, wage growth is going to feel upside pressure. That's going to put more pressure on those sticky inflation numbers. That's why I think some Fed officials are starting to talk about with the backdrop that we have now, we can't be confident we're going to trend back to a two point zero percent inflation rate more like the mid twoes maybe or high twos. But we need some rate hikes here do we think to bring inflation back to target.

00:18:11
Speaker 5: So last week's soft CPI and to a lesser extent PPI data, was that more a function of energy prices coming down during the initial days of kind of this memorandum of understanding kind of thing.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, energy prices were a big part of it. I mean, admittedly that report was much softer than we were expecting. It looks very unusual. You know, there were some big downside movers that month. If you look at something like the Cleveland Feds median CPI that was up closer to twenty basis point month over month. You know, course CPI fell in the official reports. That's a bit odd. Historically, we don't think it's going to repeat. We think it's more of an anomaly, and we're looking for firmer inflation numbers in the next few months.

00:18:49
Speaker 6: Now.

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Speaker 7: If we get a few more months of very soft numbers, we'll have to reconsider our FED call. But we think it's an anomaly, not the new rule.

00:18:57
Speaker 5: You mentioned that labor markets heating up. What is your view of the US labor marketer. It feels like we've been at and continue to be pretty dark close to full employment here.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean we're looking at payrolls growth over the last few months. You know, we had some downward revisions, a downside miss a bit in the last report, but we're running over one hundred thousand jobs per month. We think that's well above the break even rate to keep the unemployment rate constant, given that we're having no or very weak labor supply growth and that's putting downward pressure on the unemployment rate. I think companies, that's very consistent with the above trend GDP growth that we're seeing this year.

00:19:31
Speaker 2: How do your managers respond to the prima down and walks in the room and says three rate increases, which is priced down.

00:19:39
Speaker 7: Yield up I think, you know, we have pretty we have a lot of debates at.

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Speaker 2: Work, but Greg Peters going at it.

00:19:47
Speaker 4: Yeah, we have pretty great debates.

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Speaker 7: But I think we're aligned on this view that when you look at inflation over the last several years, you've see that's been well above target and these fundamental drivers are going to keep it there. And when we hear from Chairman Warsh but the broader FED, they all sound quite hawkish, even after that soft June CPI, you know, the tone across the board we think is reaching a hawkish critical mass. And that's another way of saying we think the bar for rate hikes is relatively low and it's only going to take you know, somewhat firmer inflation data to get them to move.

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Speaker 5: Do you think that? What do you take away from Chairman Warsh's comments that we've had, we spak, you spoken Portugal, he had his.

00:20:31
Speaker 2: One meeting FED meeting.

00:20:34
Speaker 5: Can he really go on a rate hiking policy here given maybe some of the political pressures.

00:20:40
Speaker 2: Yes, well, you know.

00:20:41
Speaker 7: I would say two things. One, you know, my number one takeaway from all of Chairman Warsh's commons so far is this idea of getting inflation back to two point zero percent without rounding, not in the vicinity of target, but getting inflation back down to target. And that is why, you know, major reason we think they're going to high greets. Now, on the political front, you're remarkably calm there so far. We haven't seen much response from the administration, and I, you know, everything that we're seeing and hearing is that A. Warsh is going to be independent and B you know that the administration doesn't seem too perturbed with his communication so far, which has been quite longish.

00:21:23
Speaker 2: This has been brilliant. Can come back tomorrow at least next week. Next week's the FED meeting. Right next week to the FED meeting. I got a pencil to the Fed decides yes exactly. We'll have to see on that second. Pigi, thank you so much. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

00:21:49
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple, Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or just live on YouTube.

00:22:01
Speaker 2: We're going to take time out now for an article that this summer has come out of the screen. The mirage of China's military edge panic is misguided and counterproductive. And what matters is the author is Dennis Blair, with his service to the nation and the Navy on the Pacific rim and also as former Director of National Intelligence. Dennis, thank you so much for joining us. Your article is absolutely riveting. Is this like our misjudgment of the Soviet Union intelligence in eighty seven eighty eight into eighty nine? Do we misjudge China?

00:22:43
Speaker 8: I think that the there are big differences between the situation with the Soviet Union. Our information on China is much more clear. It's more of an out in the open debate. And the problem is that it has not been put in terms of the real military tasks involved. Most of the commentary on it has been just look how many ships China's building, Look how many Look how many airplane missiles and nuclear weapons? And that means that they are going to overtake the United States. And what I try to do is put it in the context of the very tough military missions that faced China due to a number of factors.

00:23:30
Speaker 5: What is I guess for most Americans, we think about China one of the key flash points in areas of people do focus on is Taiwan. What's the current situation with China, Taiwan and the United States.

00:23:43
Speaker 8: Oh, that's a very complicated question. I mean, ever since, ever since the China won the Civil War, that ever since the Chinese Communist Party won the Civil War back in nineteen forty one and the Communists under Chanka fled to Taiwan, set up their defensive defenses there, their system there. China has wanted to end the finished the civil war by capturing what they see as the last remaining rebel holdout. And this has been true from now Dung Chouping all the way to the to the recent side. So this has been a long standing, a long standing ambition of China, and in fact, China's regime has put a lot of its legitimacy on doing that. But in the meantime, Taiwan has been able to defend itself. It's become a vibrant democracy, it's become a very important economic power in its own and its own right, drawn closer to the United States. So it's basically a case of thwarted Chinese ambition, Taiwan's development, and the United States sticking with its long term policy of not allowing another potentially hostile power in Asia to become so powerful that it dominates the region. And that's all been playing out in various tactical instantiations.

00:25:14
Speaker 5: President g is scheduled to come to the US and me with President Trump in September. What do you think the US I don't know positions should be visa of EA China today.

00:25:26
Speaker 8: I think the position should be that there will be no It was pretty well laid out in the Taiwan Relations Act, which was passed back in nineteen seventy nine by the Congress. Is produced. It has been enormously useful and enduring policy. It says basically that there won't be a change in the status of Taiwan by force. That's American policy. So the United States is perfectly willing, perfectly willing to compete economically, to compete diplomatically on values and so on. But it just says that China will not use military force. And that's a good policy, and I think the President should continue it.

00:26:11
Speaker 2: Admiral Blair, you were the follow on to what I know of Nimit's inspruance with your ability to control the Pacific Command for the United States Navy, your work as a Rhodes scholar, and of course coming out of Annapolis with great respect, I have to ask your opinion of the officer selections in non selections by our Secretary of Defense. It's a sensitive issue that you have more experiences than anybody I think I know, except that young Buckstravitis.

00:26:46
Speaker 8: Right right, yeah, now, Dad Mustavidas is a fine officer, and I think that the I think that the interference in the promotion system is terrible by the current administration led by the Secretary of Defense. It's applying criteria which are not the most important ones, which are how well officers have done in their operational jobs and how much potentially have for the future that's best known by their peers who make up the selection boards that choose them. And to take the results of those selection boards and arbitrarily change them for reasons that are never explained or announced. Both gives us a politicized, less competent senior officer corps and discourages the many people of talent but diverse backgrounds, which has always been the American strength. So I think I think it's a very bad thing, and I look forward to it being reversed by a future administration, and we're.

00:27:57
Speaker 5: All focused on the Straight of core Moves here. I think we're all kind of learning at the same time how important that straight. The administration has said that they our military forces have decimated the Iranian navy, yet it seems like Iran still controls the Strait of hor Moves. How do you square those two things here? What's going on with the just the naval operations in that part of the.

00:28:21
Speaker 8: World, well, the Iranian navy that is, ships and aircraft and so on, it's not what controls the Strait. What controls the Straight are these irregular maritime forces, speedboats, short range missiles, and drones being fired from the from hidden and protected sites. So, because the Straight of hor Moves runs so close to Iranian territory, you don't need a big navy to control it. To cause damage to ships going through it, you just need missiles and drones and speedboats coming out of caves and rocks and protected ports along that along that extended Iranian coast.

00:29:11
Speaker 4: So the.

00:29:15
Speaker 8: What the United States must do is go to traditional straight opening tactics, which is escorting, escorting merchant ships through just continuing to destroy these irregular forces that threatened threaten them and keep this rate open by force, which we are very capable of doing.

00:29:37
Speaker 2: Admiral Blair, I have fourteen more questions, Paul has twelve. You've got to come back. Av Roll Blair. Thank you so much for your public service, driving all of our Pacific Room for the Navy years ago and an incredibly terse important essay in Foreign Affairs magazine full disclosure. I'm a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, Paul. That was just extraordinary. Yep.

00:30:00
Speaker 5: Absolutely, and it's you know, putting to focus a little bit back on China because again, if we're going to have a president she coming to the US, and you know, obviously all focus has been on the Middle East and the Ukraine. But Admiral Blair asking us to kind of make sure you don't forget about China and what's going on there, and assessing.

00:30:17
Speaker 2: Well, I don't think we've got any We're not showing the flag in the Pacific Room because everything's over in the Indian Ocean and all the rest of it. This is what we're trying to do, folks, is to give you the best in conversation we can with people with real real experience. We thank edmone Mi Stavetis for leading our military coverage over the many years. Dennis Blair in the Foreign Affairs magazine.

00:30:43
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