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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough.

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Speaker 2: They're all for running a game.

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Speaker 1: So smooth, so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 3: Sixteen just glorious text procution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 3: is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 4: How shot with that shot with kind, good buddy, And

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Speaker 4: that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous a mount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody piction them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 4: The love is left to one of the wide eyed,

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Speaker 4: drilled fibused.

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Speaker 3: How old Earth picked up?

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Speaker 1: Happens?

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Speaker 2: Helloy one.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to Wondergal soccer betting podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: My name is Michael Liebough and I am licking my

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Speaker 1: wounds after getting bageled match week one. Pretty hard to do,

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Speaker 1: but who better to lick my wounds with than my

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Speaker 1: co hosts BJ Cunningham and Anthony the Bundo. But before

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Speaker 1: I bring these two gentlemen in to break down the

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Speaker 1: upcoming weekend at soccer, we'll go game by game in

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Speaker 1: the Premier League, touch on the Bundesliga, Harry Kane's new home,

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Speaker 1: La Liga Sigh, give out our infamous three leg underdog

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Speaker 1: parlay and this week is an absolute doozy and also

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Speaker 1: give out our favorite bets in the Premier League. But

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Speaker 1: before we get to all that, a reminder that Wonder

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Speaker 1: Goal is presented to you by Bet three sixty five,

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Speaker 1: the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code

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Speaker 1: Action to get Bet three six fives exclusive sign up offer.

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Speaker 1: Bet one dollar on any game, get two hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: in bonus bets. Must be twenty one or older. The

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Speaker 1: offer is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and

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Speaker 1: BJ's native Iowa in the United States. If you have

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Speaker 1: a gambling problem where you know anyone with a gambling problem,

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Speaker 1: please call our text one eight Andred Gambler. Okay. Nine

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Speaker 1: Premier League matches to talk about. Lutontown and Burnley can't

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Speaker 1: play this weekend because of the renovations undergoing at Luton's home,

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Speaker 1: Kenilworth Road. That means we'll start this podcast because we

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Speaker 1: probably were going to start with that one as the headliner,

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Speaker 1: but now the new headliner is man City hosting Newcastle

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Speaker 1: a title six pointer. City's minus one sixty three at

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Speaker 1: home Newcastle plus four twenty five. The Jaws plus three twenty.

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Speaker 1: These odds, of course, are from our friends at Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. City is going to be without Kevin

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Speaker 1: de Bruyne, it seems for quite some time. They are

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Speaker 1: also going to be on short rest here after playing

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Speaker 1: Sevilla in the Super Cup in I think it was

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Speaker 1: in Greece and that match went into a into penalty kicks.

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Speaker 1: It does feel like we're going to see a lot

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Speaker 1: of action on Newcastle here and I don't hate it,

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Speaker 1: so BJ you be leaning that way I saw on

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Speaker 1: our show notes. But do you think the numbers too short?

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Speaker 1: I don't know if it is.

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Speaker 4: I mean City opened around minus two thirty here before

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Speaker 4: this happened, and then obviously Newcastle had an unbelievable performance

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Speaker 4: at home against aston Villa, City loses de Bruyna and

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Speaker 4: then they have to going shar rest and now we're

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Speaker 4: sitting around, you know, City minus one fifty five, which

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Speaker 4: is I mean, if we seen them this short at

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Speaker 4: home against somebody in the Premier League other than you know,

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Speaker 4: maybe two matches against Liverpool in the past, I'm not

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Speaker 4: so sure. So you know, Newcastle the first time they

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Speaker 4: played City was kind of interesting because they they weren't

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Speaker 4: the Newcastle that we knew and know now. And they

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Speaker 4: actually blitzed City multiple times in transitions, scored three goals

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Speaker 4: at Saint Chance's Park, but then when they went back

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Speaker 4: and played at the EETIAD City controlled a lot of

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Speaker 4: that possession. Newcastle didn't really create a lot of chances

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Speaker 4: in transition. And that's where it comes down to me,

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Speaker 4: is City is so good defensively, like I know they

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Speaker 4: considered the header today to insari, but they're so good

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Speaker 4: defensively essentially playing five center backs, that it makes it

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Speaker 4: very very hard for me to see how Newcastle's physicality

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Speaker 4: and press is going to beat them up and create

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Speaker 4: those transitional opportunities that they're so good at doing against

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Speaker 4: other teams. You know, I had City projected at minus

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Speaker 4: one point thirty two, so I was you know, I'm

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Speaker 4: kicking myself for not getting Newcastle plus one and a

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Speaker 4: half early. Now I would really like that number, and

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Speaker 4: if it was that number, I would be coming to

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Speaker 4: the window to bet that. But now we're getting too short.

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Speaker 4: Where I'm where ats you know, Newcastle plus one and

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Speaker 4: minus one twenty I don't want to pay minus one

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Speaker 4: twenty one a plus one like that's an expensive price

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Speaker 4: to pay, especially going up against the defending champions.

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Speaker 2: So the point is obviously a huge loss.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Bernardo silv can slot into that role, and

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Speaker 4: you know City will I think will be okay. But

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Speaker 4: City should be able to build up against Newcastle. I

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Speaker 4: don't see them coming to their press, and once you

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Speaker 4: get past the Newcastle press, are they really going to

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Speaker 4: be able to stop Holland and company once they get

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Speaker 4: that open space going forward? I'm not so sure. So

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Speaker 4: this is a pass for me. I don't think we'll

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Speaker 4: see any more City steam, but I agree the spot's

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Speaker 4: not great for City, and Newcastle looked the most oppressive,

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Speaker 4: i'd say.

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Speaker 2: Of anybody in match week one.

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Speaker 4: So I think what you're getting here is just your

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Speaker 4: classic overreaction to what happened in the match Week one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, if you ask a lot of NFL betters,

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Speaker 1: they always talk about how week two is their favorite

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Speaker 1: week to bet because you can buy against the overreaction.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I generally think that this one

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Speaker 1: falls into that bucket. I know that the line crashed,

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Speaker 1: but I think a lot of that is, you know,

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Speaker 1: the de Bruyne gets hurt, and City going to play

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Speaker 1: a European match on Wednesday today as we're recording this,

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Speaker 1: so I understand what and obviously the Newcastle performances, like

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Speaker 1: I understand why the line is moving towards the Magpies,

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Speaker 1: but I also think it's that this is just who

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Speaker 1: they are. I think we can all learn to accept

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Speaker 1: that Newcastle is just a really good Premier League team

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Speaker 1: at this point playing on song like they all seem

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Speaker 1: to have really gotten into Eddie Howe's philosophy and tactics.

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Speaker 1: And I mean even even Anthony Gordon looked really good

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Speaker 1: he did the other Yeah, he was, he was, He

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Speaker 1: was really good for them. But it's it's a three

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Speaker 1: o'clock kick on on Saturday, so I'll have time. But

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Speaker 1: I'm having a tough time envisioning myself not betting Newcastle.

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Speaker 1: I think this is part of you know, I say

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Speaker 1: this a lot on the show. Newcastle's good enough that

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Speaker 1: when they get to this number, no matter who they're

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Speaker 1: playing and where they're playing, it's it's just going to

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Speaker 1: be tempting there, just in that depth bracket. Now, Anthony,

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Speaker 1: what are your thoughts here? Well?

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Speaker 3: Uh, first off, won my first bet involving City unders

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Speaker 3: this season today, so I should retire on top. But

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Speaker 3: I thought it was really interesting because you know, I

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Speaker 3: lost a lot of money betting against City because you

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Speaker 3: had noticed last season. But I thought it was really interesting.

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Speaker 3: Pep Guardy his post match comments about the short turnaround,

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Speaker 3: he said, we want to thank the Premier League for

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Speaker 3: giving us a Saturday game instead of a Sunday and Monday.

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Speaker 3: He's already started whining, and that was in a match

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Speaker 3: in which he made no real rotation to his starting

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Speaker 3: eleven and no subs until the final minute of the game.

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Speaker 3: So you know, there's some real fatigue potential here for

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Speaker 3: City as they kind of get their way into this

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Speaker 3: season and they kind of figure out what they're going

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Speaker 3: to do tactically, because what worked for Cities so well

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Speaker 3: last year is that they got ridiculous levels of production

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Speaker 3: from Mares, Dobrana and Grealish and then of course Holland,

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Speaker 3: and they didn't really need to send many numbers forward.

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Speaker 3: They were very passive and didn't really you know, overwhelmed

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Speaker 3: teams by sending huge numbers of forward, and that's what

150
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Speaker 3: made them so dominant defensively. They attacked with four maybe

151
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Speaker 3: five spend especially once Gundwan kind of had that late

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Speaker 3: season surge and goals as like the fifth man at

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Speaker 3: the end of the penalty area. Well, now they lose Gundwan,

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Speaker 3: they lose Mares, they lose Kevin de Brna, and I

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Speaker 3: just don't think that Palmer Foden and Alvarezer is good.

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Speaker 3: And I think that there's going to be some drop

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Speaker 3: off and probably a considerable one in you know, not

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Speaker 3: just the service into Holland, but the production around Holland.

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Speaker 3: I mean, as good as he was, you do need

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Speaker 3: other goals to sustain your attack and to really get

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Speaker 3: margin from these teams. So, you know, Kevin Debrona in

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Speaker 3: twenty two minutes, I wrote this today in the Sevilla preview.

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Speaker 3: In twenty two minutes, he had three passes and two

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Speaker 3: crosses into the box, which is insane. Now they don't

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Speaker 3: have him, Like, who's the guy that's playing the balls

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Speaker 3: into the box for the city team into Holland. You know,

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Speaker 3: I like Bernardo Silva. He just signed a contract, but

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Speaker 3: what does his preseason look like because he's been looking

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Speaker 3: for a move for a while. Uh And you know

170
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Speaker 3: Covid chic as the replacement isn't quite the same as

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Speaker 3: Gundwan or Debrona. It's a different kind of player, so

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Speaker 3: I have my doubts about them. I agree that the

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Speaker 3: market has moved pretty solidly toward Newcastle, and I think

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Speaker 3: that's as the you know, it was a bad look ahead.

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Speaker 3: I mean, minus two thirty is a bad number. I

176
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Speaker 3: would have loved Newcastle. I think we're all agreement there.

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Speaker 3: If this gets up to about you know, plus one

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Speaker 3: minus one ten, I will fire on the Magpies. But

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Speaker 3: Pj's right at the minus one twenty one twenty five

180
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Speaker 3: they have to lay right now. It's a little bit

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Speaker 3: steep for me, but I mean Newcastle opening day, I

182
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Speaker 3: mean it played out almost exactly like the friendly did

183
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Speaker 3: against Villa, where they just got in behind over and

184
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Speaker 3: over and over again. Es sox creativity and and you know,

185
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Speaker 3: the defense showed a couple of cracks, but I thought

186
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Speaker 3: they played over over overall pretty well. Tonali getting forward

187
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Speaker 3: to adding some more goals to make up for you know,

188
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Speaker 3: not starting Callum Wilson and bring him off the bench,

189
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Speaker 3: which I thought was interesting too. So I lean toward

190
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Speaker 3: the Magpies for sure here, but I have not bet all.

191
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Speaker 1: Right, let's let's skip to Friday, then we'll skip back

192
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Speaker 1: to Friday. So that's that three pm start between City

193
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Speaker 1: and Newcastle on Saturday. So the Premier League did give

194
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Speaker 1: Pep a little bit of breathing room to quiet him

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Speaker 1: a bit. Yeah, a couple of hours, you know, if

196
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Speaker 1: it's it was clap. I mean, I don't even know

197
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Speaker 1: if Liverpool would play this game, they probably would protest

198
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Speaker 1: it and to get it on. Yeah, all right, Friday

199
00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:06,080
Speaker 1: afternoon two forty five kickoff between Nottingham Forest and Sheffield United.

200
00:10:06,280 --> 00:10:10,600
Speaker 1: A relegation six pointer here forrest odds on at home

201
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Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, minus one eighteen Sheffield United plus three fifty,

202
00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:18,920
Speaker 1: That draws plus two fifty. We spoke a lot about

203
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Speaker 1: force home and away splits last year minus thirty three

204
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Speaker 1: goal differential overall, minus thirty on the road, plus three

205
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Speaker 1: at home, the expected goles minus eight at home and

206
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Speaker 1: minus twenty six or so overall, so they were a

207
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Speaker 1: little bit, you know, lucky at home, but it was

208
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Speaker 1: a distinct home field advantage. We'll see if that carries over.

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Speaker 1: Sheffield United looked abject against Crystal Palace, but they signed

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Speaker 1: Tom Davis, so all there, all their woes are all

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Speaker 1: their woves have been fixed by the handsome lad from Liverpool.

212
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Speaker 1: I can't look away from this price. It's like you can't,

213
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Speaker 1: you can't, you can't make Forest by this what Atena

214
00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:08,439
Speaker 1: gets anybody? Maybe Luton, maybe Luton Town, I don't even

215
00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:10,080
Speaker 1: know what's that.

216
00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:12,720
Speaker 4: They never were this high at all last season and yeah,

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Speaker 4: this is match. I went through every single lot. The

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Speaker 4: highest they closed as a favorite was towards the end

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Speaker 4: of last season. They closes an even money favorite against Southampton,

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Speaker 4: who I believe at the time was very like it

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Speaker 4: was the last match before they were relegated or it

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Speaker 4: was pretty much like a foregone conclusion and it wasn't official,

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Speaker 4: so they were getting like a huge bump because.

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Speaker 1: And you know what I probably said during that match

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Speaker 1: was you can't make Forest an even money favorite against

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Speaker 1: any team really exactly.

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Speaker 2: I mean this is crazy. I mean what are we?

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Speaker 4: I mean Forrest like okay, yeah, they won the Expectacles

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Speaker 4: in its arsenal, like big deal.

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Speaker 1: They were down to nothing after thirty minutes exactly.

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Speaker 4: And and the thing about Forrest was this last season,

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Speaker 4: like the only good thing they had going for them

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Speaker 4: offensively is they like kind of created some big scoring

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Speaker 4: cham It is here and there, but they were dead

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Speaker 4: last and final third entries, dead last in box entries,

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Speaker 4: dead last and crosses completed in the penalty area, and

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Speaker 4: dead last and expected threat. Other than Alaga, they haven't

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Speaker 4: made any significant additions to their offense other than getting

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Speaker 4: Allen Awi healthy. So now there's supposed to be an

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Speaker 4: odds on favorite against a Sheffield United team that yes

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Speaker 4: has sold to players and like, yes, their offense is

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Speaker 4: pretty inept at this point. But this is the Sheffield

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Speaker 4: United defense that last season only allowed er point eight

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Speaker 4: to nine expected goals per ninety in the Championship. They

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Speaker 4: play five at the back, they play very compact. They're

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Speaker 4: also this stat here really caught me when I was

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Speaker 4: going through Sheffield United, especially their performances in the Championship

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Speaker 4: over because obviously in the Championship you played forty six matches.

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Speaker 4: Over forty six matches, they only conceded nine total expected

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Speaker 4: goals off of set pieces. They are a really really

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Speaker 4: so palid compact defense. And yes they did concede one

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Speaker 4: point nine expected goals to Crystal Palace, but it was

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Speaker 4: really just one mistake inside the six yard box that

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Speaker 4: Edward put in that shot at an xt rating a

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Speaker 4: point sixty four. Christ Palace took twenty three other shots

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Speaker 4: beyond that one and only created one point two.

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Speaker 2: Six expected goals for the rest of the match.

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Speaker 4: So it wasn't like, you know, Crystal Palace had created

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Speaker 4: a bunch of chances, like they took a ton of shots,

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Speaker 4: a ton of them were low quality, and United just

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Speaker 4: made one mistake at the back.

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Speaker 2: So I agree, Michael, I.

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Speaker 4: Have Nottingham Forest projected at plus one forty two. I

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Speaker 4: think it's insane that they're this high. I get that

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Speaker 4: they're at home, and I get that United doesn't really

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Speaker 4: have much of an offensive threat right now, but come on,

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Speaker 4: like this is this is crazy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm I'm gonna bet Sheffield United right after I

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Speaker 1: passed this to Anthony here and so you'll see you'll

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Speaker 1: get even a better number on United if you wait,

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Speaker 1: because with the way my betting went last week, the

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Speaker 1: book makers are going to say, up Lee buff he's

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Speaker 1: he's on the blades, take them six to one. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: just I mean, these there's just not just wide of

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Speaker 1: a gap between these two teams, especially in the second

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Speaker 1: week of a season, Like we're not talking about a

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Speaker 1: team being scrapped for depth or anything like that. Like

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Speaker 1: this is a different beast from a February game where

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Speaker 1: maybe Sheffield United's in a little bit of trouble because

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Speaker 1: of their their budget. But are they going to score?

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Speaker 1: Like are they going to be able to create? I

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Speaker 1: don't know, like it, I like them.

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Speaker 3: Half minus ride fifteen at home is like not that

284
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Speaker 3: crazy to me for this match. Yeah, Sheffield, like Forrest,

285
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Speaker 3: came into the league as the second worst team last year.

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Speaker 3: There are now worst teams I think, and look, we

287
00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:41,480
Speaker 3: could be wrong, like Sheffield United. We need more data

288
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Speaker 3: on them, looton we need more data, like we can't

289
00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:48,600
Speaker 3: have a direct opinion that's particularly strong power rating at

290
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Speaker 3: this moment, so there certainly is some variants in that.

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Speaker 3: But they did give up a ton of shots to

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Speaker 3: the Palace. The Palace didn't get over twenty shots. They

293
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Speaker 3: had one time all of last season they got over

294
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Speaker 3: twenty shots and it was against Leicester and we all

295
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Speaker 3: know what happened with them. They didn't get over nineteen

296
00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:11,320
Speaker 3: any other match. Sheffield completed sixty percent of their passes.

297
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Speaker 3: Every other team in the league was at least sixty seven.

298
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Speaker 3: So like it was, it was really bad. They were

299
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Speaker 3: home first match, Like that's a great spot against against

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Speaker 3: a Palace team that we have all been kind of

301
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Speaker 3: down on saying like well, you know they lost Zaha Elist,

302
00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,240
Speaker 3: they didn't play like they have no attack, how are

303
00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:29,720
Speaker 3: they going to score? And they went out and just

304
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Speaker 3: like lived in the Sheffield penalty area. So yeah, I

305
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Speaker 3: have no interest here. I'm not laying it with Forth,

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Speaker 3: but I think that the line's right.

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Speaker 1: Coming into the season. Uh this this was basically the

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Speaker 1: second and third favorite for relegation, like these aren't these

309
00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,040
Speaker 1: aren't good? Premier League was a big yeah between them. Yeah, no,

310
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Speaker 1: there is, but and there still is. Like you look

311
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Speaker 1: at you look at the odds right now, Sheffield Unit,

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00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:55,320
Speaker 1: it's like minus two twenty now to be relegated after

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Speaker 1: one match, and you know Noding Force is two to one,

314
00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:02,080
Speaker 1: maybe a little bit north of two to one. So

315
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Speaker 1: I get that there's a gap, but it's.

316
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Speaker 3: As didn't play well. Again, they played well quote unquote

317
00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:10,600
Speaker 3: against Arsenal because their back line actually did a really

318
00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:13,360
Speaker 3: nice job like defending under a lot of pressure. But

319
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Speaker 3: they weren't like to Arsenal on any point in that match,

320
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Speaker 3: Like it was a lot of just defending and pray

321
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Speaker 3: and they did some really good last dis defending. But

322
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Speaker 3: again it's like you know, Tywo comes on scores like

323
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Speaker 3: when he's on the pitch, they're not bad.

324
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Speaker 1: I mean Brendan Johnson had a chance that he's terrible

325
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Speaker 1: early on, but he is horrible. He is.

326
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Speaker 3: I mean they need somebody, who is it that's in

327
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Speaker 3: for him for oh west Ham are offering forty plus

328
00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:44,800
Speaker 3: mineon for Redford for him too. That that is a

329
00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:47,360
Speaker 3: little crazy to me too. But yeah, Brandon Johnson like

330
00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:49,240
Speaker 3: played all of last year and was just not good.

331
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Speaker 1: Uh yeah, all right, so little disagreement here. I just

332
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Speaker 1: I can't I'm with you, Michael, Yeah, I can't see

333
00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,840
Speaker 1: this number being like this Fulham and Brentford. Now ten

334
00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:06,520
Speaker 1: AM's on Saturday. There's no semi thirty because City's playing

335
00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:09,840
Speaker 1: at three pm Eastern time. BJ super Bowl, Yeah this

336
00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:11,359
Speaker 1: is uh.

337
00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:18,119
Speaker 4: I have I have many Super Bowls throughout the season, Anthony.

338
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,160
Speaker 1: This is a full plus one seventy at home born

339
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:24,160
Speaker 1: with a slight slight, slight road favorite plus one sixty

340
00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:26,479
Speaker 1: two and the drop plus two forty. We'll talk more

341
00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:27,879
Speaker 1: about it when we get to Everdon. But it was

342
00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:30,000
Speaker 1: the same song and dance for Fulham. Yeah, I mean,

343
00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,679
Speaker 1: I feel like this does happen too. We'll like target

344
00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:36,640
Speaker 1: a team, will have them circled as a regression candidate

345
00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:39,000
Speaker 1: for the next season, and then the first game. I

346
00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,159
Speaker 1: feel like they always just come out and catch all

347
00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:43,400
Speaker 1: the breaks and the other team can't finish and then

348
00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:46,159
Speaker 1: eventually does catch up to him. It's I mean, it's

349
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Speaker 1: Brentford or nothing here, and I just was wishing for

350
00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:51,879
Speaker 1: a little bit of a bigger number. But I'll probably

351
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,520
Speaker 1: still do it. Bees BJ what about you?

352
00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:55,320
Speaker 2: Yep? Bees John?

353
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Speaker 4: I bet mis one twelve. This is about as simple

354
00:17:57,480 --> 00:18:01,320
Speaker 4: as it gets on this podcast. I mean, listen, it's

355
00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,280
Speaker 4: a long season, like these things are gonna happen. I'm

356
00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:06,280
Speaker 4: not gonna sit here and just berate Fulham because I

357
00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:08,879
Speaker 4: got unlucky because I had Everton. I mean, it is

358
00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:10,600
Speaker 4: what it is. They've They've done this to me before.

359
00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:13,720
Speaker 4: They'll continue to do it. Con See the two point

360
00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:17,040
Speaker 4: seven expected goals. Everton somehow couldn't score any of them

361
00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:20,919
Speaker 4: for some reason. Michael Leno just spilled the ball in

362
00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,200
Speaker 4: the penalty area, but somehow it was a foul even

363
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:27,040
Speaker 4: though they put it in. Yeah, Oulham gets a big

364
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:30,200
Speaker 4: scoring chance, they convert it and uh yeah, that's about

365
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,000
Speaker 4: how it goes. Everton took ten of the first eleven

366
00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,719
Speaker 4: shots in that massing match and created three big scoring chances.

367
00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:39,760
Speaker 2: So what are you gonna do? Fulham still without Paulinya.

368
00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:44,439
Speaker 4: That's massive for them, as we've seen throughout many times

369
00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:48,720
Speaker 4: last year and the match against Everton Brentford, you know,

370
00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,120
Speaker 4: they smashed them at the Brentford Community Stadium last season.

371
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:53,240
Speaker 4: Mitrovich was on the pitch for all ninety minutes there.

372
00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:56,159
Speaker 4: As of today, it looks like Mitrovich is off to

373
00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:59,960
Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia, which means that it's gonna be the Ralejomene

374
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:02,040
Speaker 4: show up top for Fulham.

375
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,720
Speaker 1: He looked ok which really he was pretty good.

376
00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:09,720
Speaker 4: Yeah he's okay, but he got you know, one shot

377
00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,200
Speaker 4: and one one aerial duel, you know, hit the post.

378
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:16,199
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, maybe not the best, but you know, with

379
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:19,360
Speaker 4: him up top, you know, if we'll see what kind

380
00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 4: of production they get over fall season. But the one

381
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,200
Speaker 4: big advantage they had here is Brentford does allow a

382
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,679
Speaker 4: lot of crosses in their penalty area. That's something Fulham

383
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:28,760
Speaker 4: obviously was very good at last season because they had

384
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:32,000
Speaker 4: Metrovich well. With Autumn Rajhuman is up top, they might

385
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 4: take away the one big advantage that they have. Fulham

386
00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,720
Speaker 4: was also bottom three and defending step pieces, which is

387
00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 4: always bad news when you're facing Brentford. This is just yeah,

388
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 4: I mean, Anthony's probably gonna tll you the market's getting

389
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 4: a little drunk on Brentford here, and it kind of is.

390
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 2: But I have Brentford projected at plus one twenty four,

391
00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:52,359
Speaker 2: so I'll take them drawn a bed at mine one twelve.

392
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, being Brentford played well against Spurs. I thought they

393
00:19:55,640 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 3: were pretty even game, you know, Tottenham, you know, I

394
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,480
Speaker 3: think in a way, you know, we talked about Brentford

395
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:04,520
Speaker 3: at home and how good they've been. Brentford going on

396
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:06,040
Speaker 3: the road and sitting in there kind of like rest

397
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 3: defense and then waiting for Fulham to give the ball

398
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 3: away and then destroying them in transition like is a

399
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:16,359
Speaker 3: decent path to success. And with Fulham they did sign

400
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 3: crossing legend Dontreiray, so it's true I forgot to look

401
00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:22,680
Speaker 3: out for him as like an eightieth minute super sub

402
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:24,919
Speaker 3: to score two quick goals when the Bees are at

403
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,520
Speaker 3: one nil. But yeah, I mean, you know the meetings

404
00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:29,879
Speaker 3: between these two teams last year, Brentford clearly with the

405
00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:32,359
Speaker 3: better team and every category you can possibly imagine, but

406
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:35,360
Speaker 3: you know, pick him on the road. The question you're

407
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,479
Speaker 3: asking is like, is that worth? Is that about? Does

408
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 3: home field advantage account for the gap and the two teams?

409
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:43,920
Speaker 3: You could maybe tell me that it's not big enough,

410
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 3: like what BJ said, and that it should just still

411
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:49,120
Speaker 3: be the Bees. You could also tell me that it's

412
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,119
Speaker 3: about right, so it would be Bees or nothing. I

413
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 3: imagine if Metro's out, this line does start to move.

414
00:20:56,080 --> 00:21:00,360
Speaker 3: But he did play, you know, off the bench and

415
00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 3: and isn't sold yet, so we will see on his front. Yeah,

416
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 3: I mean they just got destroyed.

417
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:07,439
Speaker 2: Yeah.

418
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 4: According to our friend Leno, yeah, gosh, three.

419
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,119
Speaker 3: Point three goals saved based on post shot expected goals.

420
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,320
Speaker 3: The second best in the prem was point nine, so

421
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,920
Speaker 3: he was almost four times better than every other goalie

422
00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 3: in the league. And of course Neil Mape.

423
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:25,400
Speaker 2: Yeah.

424
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 4: As of our our good friend Fabrizzi Romano that Al

425
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:35,159
Speaker 4: Halal are finalizing a move for Alexander Mitrovic today, so

426
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 4: looks like it's done.

427
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:41,399
Speaker 1: And like everybody else who's come on this show, Fabrizio

428
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 1: tells No Lives No Liverpool and Bournemouth home opener for

429
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 1: the Reds Anthony's Reds at Anfield. They are minus four

430
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 1: fifty at bet three six fy Bournemouth ten to one

431
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 1: on the money line and the draw is plus five

432
00:21:55,960 --> 00:22:00,159
Speaker 1: point fifty. Chelsea Liverpool, I think Spurs and Brentford was

433
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 1: like this too. That the crazy first half, a lot

434
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 1: of fun, and then things kind of petered out as

435
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 1: they tried to kind of manage the game a little

436
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:08,719
Speaker 1: bit more. It seemed like Liverpool looked like they were

437
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 1: going to run away and hide in those first fifteen

438
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:16,120
Speaker 1: minutes and then things started to go awry defensively, especially

439
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 1: they've become undone. Like this team comes undone, I feel

440
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:24,120
Speaker 1: like very simply, you know, one one quick ball over

441
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 1: the top and it's like it's almost like they they

442
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 1: dare you to. They're unimpressed by you know, Route one

443
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 1: football and if they think it should be like illegal

444
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:36,359
Speaker 1: or something, because you can unlock this defense with one

445
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 1: decent ball twenty yards up the pitch and that's what

446
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 1: Chelsea started to do a little bit. And both teams

447
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,359
Speaker 1: you know, had some var stuff and whatever, but it

448
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 1: was a fun match. I thought I came away being

449
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:51,879
Speaker 1: a little bit more impressed with Chelsea and a little

450
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 1: kind of questioning Liverpool's defense. And I think they could

451
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 1: be in a little bit of trouble here, Anthony yore

452
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:02,440
Speaker 1: Red's for the season.

453
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 3: Or in this match or both.

454
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:05,640
Speaker 1: No, I mean generally, I think in the season they'll

455
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 1: they'll be they'll get it sorted. But I think this match, like,

456
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 1: I just think it's gonna take a little bit of time.

457
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 1: Like there's a lot of turnover here, especially in the

458
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 1: middle of the field, Like there's a lot of experience

459
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 1: that's walked out of this this team, and a lot

460
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 1: of kind of you know, guys who played together for

461
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 1: forever under the same manager that now being replaced. And

462
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 1: I think that's that shows up early in the season here.

463
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 1: And I actually don't mind taking a shot here on

464
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 1: the Cherries.

465
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:31,680
Speaker 2: I agree.

466
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 3: If you follow me in the Action Network cap the

467
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 3: award winning Action Network gap, then you know I already

468
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 3: bet Bournemuth plus two point twenty five before a ball

469
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 3: was kicked this season. I still like them at plus two.

470
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:42,920
Speaker 3: At plus one point seventy five, I would no longer

471
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 3: bet the Cherries. But look, you can already see the

472
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 3: impact of Aiola. In one match last season, Bournemuth had

473
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 3: the second lowest or highest rather pass completion rate allowed,

474
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 3: so only west Ham allowed a higher pass completion rate.

475
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 3: They were very passive out of possession. They did not

476
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 3: really press at all eighty two percent. One match. It

477
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,360
Speaker 3: is one match. It's west Ham, so you know west

478
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 3: Ham withot decland Rice, Okay, I don't think they're gonna

479
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 3: be second by the season's end. But Bournemouth was the

480
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 3: second lowest pass completion rate allowed sixty seven percent. And

481
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 3: that is everything that Ariola did at Viacano that made

482
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 3: them a thorn in the side of every top team.

483
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 3: They played over and over again, whether it was Barsa

484
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 3: or Real, especially those two. They beat Barsa multiple times,

485
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 3: beat Real a couple of times, played some crazy back

486
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 3: and forth with them. They make it a very frenetic

487
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 3: game and Liverpool's comfortable playing that pace. But Liverpool's going

488
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 3: to be vulnerable in transition, very much so. And Bournemouth,

489
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 3: you know, they showed the seeds of it last year

490
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 3: with their fun attacking group. I think they can do

491
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 3: this again. I think they probably lose this game, but

492
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:54,160
Speaker 3: I could see very much like a two to one

493
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:55,880
Speaker 3: to three to two kind of game here that Liverpool

494
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 3: struggles to separate because their defense is so vulnerable. I

495
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,639
Speaker 3: had spot Circle before the season, the unique press that

496
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 3: they play, it's hard to game plan for. It's you know,

497
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 3: most teams. You know, you see Bournemouth on the calendar,

498
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 3: you're not expecting that. You see Ryo Viocano on the calendar,

499
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 3: You're not expecting that. I do think Bournemouth can give

500
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 3: them a game this weekend. I like the plus two

501
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 3: and wouldn't be shocked if they pulled off an upset

502
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 3: at anfield.

503
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: Anything for you here, b J.

504
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm I'm passing. I'm staring at both teams to

505
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 4: score right now. It's just it's, you know, you can

506
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 4: find it with little right now as much minus one

507
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 4: twenty eight.

508
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, Bournemouth was minus one forty five to score here.

509
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 4: So yeah, so that's a very interesting price for me

510
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 4: looking at that. If anything, that's where I'd go, or

511
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,439
Speaker 4: a Bournemouth to score. Yeah, I mean Anthony mentioned so

512
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:47,920
Speaker 4: the problems that Liverpool have now is that, especially playing

513
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 4: a team like Bournemouth that can really wreck you and transition,

514
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:56,919
Speaker 4: which they did last season at Vitality Stadium. They did that,

515
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 4: they scored against them and the match handed one nothing.

516
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 4: But the thing what's happening with Liverpool is that since

517
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 4: they don't have a defensive midfielder and because they keep

518
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,639
Speaker 4: wanting to invert Trent Alexander Arnold into the middle of

519
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:13,160
Speaker 4: the pitch, well now they're playing a back three with Konnat,

520
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 4: who is great at ball covering, he's probably their most

521
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 4: versatile defender, Van Daik who's old and can't cover like

522
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,880
Speaker 4: he used to, and Andy Robertson, who's not really a defender,

523
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:24,959
Speaker 4: he's more of like a left mid who's playing as

524
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 4: a left back right now. Because you know, obviously Alexander

525
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 4: Arnold Robertson, why they've been so good over the years

526
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 4: is those guys getting foured down the wings and creating

527
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,119
Speaker 4: chances to be a crosses. So when you put Trent

528
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 4: Alexander Arnold in the middle of the pitch, well, if

529
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 4: Konat is sitting in the back and he wants to

530
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 4: go out from that back three and try to defend

531
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 4: somebody out wide in transition, well the person who's got

532
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 4: to drop is Trent Alexander Arnold. He's just not a

533
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:50,639
Speaker 4: good defender. So Liverpool's got this weird conundrum. And against Chelsea,

534
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 4: you know, they said a lot of pressing traps. They

535
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 4: didn't just all out blitz them or press high because

536
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 4: they were playing McAllister as a six, which is kind

537
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 4: of concerning to see when you're sitting back there.

538
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,439
Speaker 2: Cody Gakba was playing as like a left wing back

539
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 2: for a little while.

540
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 4: It's just kind of moving part. I don't know, it's

541
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:08,400
Speaker 4: not a mess, but it's just kind of moving parts.

542
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 4: Now with Liverpool that makes them kind of vulnerable defensively,

543
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 4: So I I agree with Anthony. I mean I might

544
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 4: sprinkle little bit on the Borne with money line. I

545
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:16,959
Speaker 4: think they definitely have a chance here to pull off

546
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:17,439
Speaker 4: an upset.

547
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 1: All three of us on the Bourne myth money line.

548
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:23,640
Speaker 3: I have a feeling it was my nine like last year.

549
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know they will, It's it's absolutely possible.

550
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:31,159
Speaker 1: Uh Onto, Wolves and Brighton.

551
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 3: Markets had fun with this one.

552
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 1: Oh boy. Wolves are plus two eighty at the time

553
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 1: of recording, Brighton odds On on the road minus one

554
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 1: ten to draw us to seventy five. After Brighton's game,

555
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 1: the line, uh shot up. I bet it right before

556
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 1: Wolves and you know I had played because I started

557
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 1: to get nervous even though I knew and that Wolves

558
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 1: would give United a game. Uh so I got au

559
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:58,879
Speaker 1: won that oneally should have won. And I think that's

560
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 1: the point I was gonna make, is it. I think

561
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 1: of almost every team. I think Newcastle number one came

562
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:08,360
Speaker 1: out of match week one as the team that kind

563
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 1: of got the most accolades and uh.

564
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 3: Top of the table.

565
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:15,399
Speaker 1: Number number two was probably Brightened, and then I think

566
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 1: number three is actually Wolves in a losing effort against United.

567
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 1: Uh they they were really good. I thought it was

568
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 1: like it was a swashbuckling performance from Wolverhampton. We'll see

569
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 1: what they. I mean, they gotta add to the squad

570
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,479
Speaker 1: because it's it's like one thing when the team is

571
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 1: like I know, like it's one thing if you could

572
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 1: do it when you're you have your best eleven. But

573
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 1: like I was saying earlier, when we get towards the

574
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 1: colder months and people are heard and stuff like, that's

575
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: when it's gonna really start to trickle, uh for for Wolves.

576
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 1: And then obviously the line comes back down after that

577
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 1: Wolves performance. So Brighton's back at minus one ten, which

578
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: is about what they were when we recorded last week,

579
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 1: when you guys are saying, you know, bet Brighton now,

580
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 1: I still believe in that, even despite the Wolves performance,

581
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 1: I think that Brighton's a good bet here at minus

582
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 1: one ten. I think even if they catch a little

583
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 1: bit of that steam back that they saw in between

584
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 1: their matches in match week one, I would still bet

585
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 1: the Seagulls. This is a I don't I just still

586
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 1: don't don't believe that this Wolves team is going to

587
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 1: be able to do that again. And all credit to them,

588
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: like that was a a front foot like we'll go

589
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 1: toe to toe with Manchester United, but it was at

590
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 1: Old Trafford under the lights, like a little bit of

591
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 1: a different situation. No, they did not score. I mean

592
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 1: they should have had a penalty. They hit crossbar. It's

593
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 1: it was. It was a good it was a good show.

594
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 3: Yeah from Wolves.

595
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: I mean not that it wasn't It wasn't like that

596
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 1: usually it was usually you.

597
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 3: Know they were usually that good, like two years ago

598
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 3: and finishing again.

599
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was like remember we remember we bet Wolves

600
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 4: the time, like two years ago, United and Tottenham and

601
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 4: then yeah.

602
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 3: And it was the same thing. It was we're not

603
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 3: gonna have the ball. We're gonna wait for our transitions

604
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 3: and then we're gonna have like these fun guys like

605
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 3: Pedro Netto was like the best player in the league yep,

606
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 3: for a brief period of time and now it's like, well,

607
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 3: then they went to low Patagy ball and even Brunolage

608
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 3: ball and it was like nothing and that was terrible.

609
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 3: But here's the thing. They had sixteen high turnovers against

610
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 3: Manchester United in that match at all Trafford. If Anthony Garnacho,

611
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 3: I mean Anthony Garnachio and Rashford could not have played worse.

612
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 3: Like there were so many times where they just had

613
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 3: the ball and when they should have passed they dribbled

614
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 3: them when the should have dribbled, they passed, and when

615
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 3: they should have shot they didn't or they you know,

616
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 3: like everything was awful with man United the front three

617
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 3: and yet like we'll still give up two xg like

618
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 3: looked really under the cash against the press for large

619
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 3: stretches when they broke through. Yes, they were very good,

620
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 3: but Brighton I think is one better than men United.

621
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 3: I've been saying this all year and two I agree

622
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 3: with the first market move. I think minus one thirty

623
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 3: one thirty five is about right. I don't think minus

624
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 3: one oh five minus one ten is so I'm gonna

625
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 3: take the goals. Who had the most attacking, penalty area

626
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 3: touches the most expected goals. Ferguson came on, looked amazing.

627
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 3: Metoma was Metoma. They could have had more than four

628
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 3: if they finished better. Uh, I know it was Lowton Town.

629
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 3: But like, do we really think Wolves are gonna replicate this,

630
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 3: because like we've seen Wolves have these kind of games before.

631
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 3: I thought that had more to do with United than Wolves,

632
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 3: even though I like Kunya and Pedro Netto are like

633
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 3: fun dribbler.

634
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 1: Players, but like, yeah, the last time I saw Wolves

635
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 1: look that impressive was every time they play evert In.

636
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 1: They're just dominating. They do finish, but they always finished.

637
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 1: They always finish. It gets everted, Yeah, they always finished.

638
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 3: That was the last away when they beat Yeah and.

639
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 2: Stoppage time.

640
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 1: BJ. You're also on Brighton here.

641
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,959
Speaker 4: So yeah, So here's the conundrum that Wolves is in

642
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 4: right now, because like I agree like with Anthony that yes,

643
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 4: like they succumb to the United's press pretty pretty easily.

644
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 4: But so when you face Brighton, you have one of

645
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 4: two options. You can either play really aggressively try and

646
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 4: blitz them and try to create high turnovers when they

647
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 4: try to obviously bait you in because they are so aggressive,

648
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 4: or you can sit back and you can play very

649
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 4: passive and sit in a low block and try to

650
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 4: defend all of their attackers.

651
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 2: For ninety minutes.

652
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 4: I mean, either one of them is very difficult. You know,

653
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 4: you have to be an elite pressing team like Newcastle

654
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 4: to beat up Brighton or you have to be an

655
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 4: elite low block team to actually keep them out.

656
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 2: Wolves is neither of those.

657
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 4: They last season they were bottom half of the league

658
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 4: and every single pressing category that you can imagine. Brighton

659
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 4: was the number one team in offensive passes per defensive action,

660
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 4: meaning they were the best team at playing through pressure

661
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 4: in the Premier League. And then you look at how

662
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 4: Wolves defended in a low block thirteenth and expected goal

663
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 4: is allowed, sixteenth, in shots, sixteenth, in box entry is

664
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 4: allowed fifteenth and final third to box entry conversion rate

665
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 4: aloud along with being very average at defending set pieces.

666
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 4: And then you also coupled that with the fact that

667
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 4: they sold Nathaniel Collins and they're starting Craig Dawson in

668
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 4: their back line. All of it is just a really

669
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 4: really bad combination if you're trying to defend the top

670
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 4: four offense. And Deservey and Gary o'nial played each other

671
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 4: twice when O'Neill was at Bournemouth, and Brighten created four point.

672
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 2: Zine expected goals in those two matches and.

673
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 4: Really just completely pinned them in for the full ninety

674
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 4: minutes and just created a chance after chance after chance.

675
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 2: So I'm with you, guys. I like Brighton minus one ten.

676
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 1: Okay, Spurs and United. We just kind of alluded to

677
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 1: what United did against Wolves in that last conversation. Nonetheless,

678
00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 1: they're still a road favorite plus one thirty seven, right

679
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 1: going to Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium.

680
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,080
Speaker 3: Market hed f. I with this one too, Spurs plus.

681
00:33:59,880 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 1: One eighty seven that draw plus two seventy five, Anthony,

682
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: You Spurs are your your second or third team now,

683
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 1: it's hard to keep track. You got a Brentford avatar

684
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 1: on x dot com. You are die hard Liverpool Urgen

685
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 1: clopp Truther and you got your Crystal Palace scarf on.

686
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 1: But you also say you're a Tottenham fan.

687
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 3: Don't forget Brighton.

688
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 2: It's true.

689
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, so there's a lot going on here. What are

690
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 1: your thoughts?

691
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 3: You know, I thought Spurs played pretty well against Brentford.

692
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 3: I wasn't sure what to expect going into the match.

693
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 1: We told you exactly what to expect, and I was right.

694
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 1: They're gonna be good, Michael, No, They're just gonna be good.

695
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 1: They were gonna be a really good fun team to

696
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:48,919
Speaker 1: watch and look like positive. It was classic BRD moving

697
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:49,479
Speaker 1: the ball quick.

698
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, and and Van Derven played really well. Romero going

699
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 3: off with the concussion hurts because I can't imagine he

700
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 3: turns around and plays in this match. They're gonna need

701
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:02,320
Speaker 3: him that, you know, makes me a little concerned, especially

702
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,399
Speaker 3: because they're going to try to play out from the back.

703
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,400
Speaker 3: This this match is the first real test. Because we

704
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 3: talked about Brentford and like Brentford is very passive defensively,

705
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:15,359
Speaker 3: they pretty much sat off the second half entirely and said, Okay,

706
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,240
Speaker 3: we're gonna let you have the ball, do your little passing.

707
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:19,879
Speaker 3: You're just not gonna get into our final third and

708
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:21,920
Speaker 3: you're not gonna get into our penaltaria. And that's what happened.

709
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 3: I mean, Spurs finished the match with seventy four passes

710
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 3: into the final third just six into the penaltyaria. So

711
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,280
Speaker 3: the attacks were breaking down consistently against Brentford because Brentford

712
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 3: that's what they do. This is an entirely different setup.

713
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 3: United is going to press, and if they press as

714
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 3: effectively as they did against Wolves, there's going to be

715
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 3: high turnovers because Sanchez and Dicey and the fullbacks are

716
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 3: not great passers. And I have my concerns about that,

717
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:49,360
Speaker 3: and that's why I bet the over two and a half.

718
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 3: It's been juiced up a little bit, may come back

719
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 3: toward game time, but if you can get you know,

720
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 3: one forty one fifty or better, I think two and

721
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 3: a half is just too low for this total, and

722
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 3: andovers are going to be a thing, and at least

723
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 3: until the market adjusts.

724
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 1: Then.

725
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 3: On the other side, like I'm concerned about United because

726
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:08,839
Speaker 3: Casimiro played like the worst match maybe I've ever seen

727
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:14,400
Speaker 3: him play. That was stunning transition defense, like they Martinez

728
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 3: kept Alessania. Martinez kept getting pushed up the pitch as

729
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 3: a part of like a possession thing, and then when

730
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 3: they lost the ball, if they got by him, it

731
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 3: was just free run at the at the goal, I mean,

732
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 3: there was nothing else, so United allowed the second most

733
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 3: touches in the penalty area of any team in the

734
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:31,839
Speaker 3: league this year. They ran out of gas. They were

735
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 3: totally out of gas in the last ten minutes. I

736
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 3: mean they had they literally sent a supporter on the

737
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 3: pitch try to try to add an extra man in

738
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 3: final five minutes and then the penalty. We don't have

739
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 3: to talk about it because obviously we can all agree

740
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 3: it was but whatever, it's penalty. They were barely defending

741
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 3: for their lives, like barely hanging on against a Wolves

742
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:55,359
Speaker 3: team that has like no actual attacking quality. So you know,

743
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:58,760
Speaker 3: there are concerns about United defensively that we have echoed

744
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 3: on this show repeatedly and said, like, they can't possibly

745
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 3: be rated as high defensively. They're not a good defense.

746
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 3: They were not a good defense last year. And I

747
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 3: think Tottenham, you know, Tottenham is figuring some things out.

748
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 3: Saw that wide and the system didn't look great. So

749
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 3: maybe they move him centrally. With Charlottson played badly, maybe

750
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 3: they you know, there are things they can do to

751
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 3: tweak this. Get les celso maybe in there for skip

752
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 3: move koule Sevsky inside. I think you're gonna see some

753
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 3: tweaking with Ange as he tries to figure out what

754
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:27,840
Speaker 3: the best way to break down teams is. But this match,

755
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 3: it's kind of similar to Liverpool Chelsea with me with like,

756
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 3: the midfields are just gonna kind of be there and

757
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 3: and Tottenham is going to give the ball away high

758
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 3: a lot and be exposed out wide and then they're

759
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 3: going to break through United a bunch and get their chances. So,

760
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 3: you know, I don't think United's good enough to be

761
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 3: a road favorite Spurs, So I like Tottenham, pick them,

762
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 3: and I like the over as well. I think this

763
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 3: is a you know, two to one to two two

764
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 3: kind of game.

765
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean brevity is the essence of wit, right,

766
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 1: And I think your last statement there is all I'll

767
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 1: need to say is that United is just not good

768
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,799
Speaker 1: enough and they showed it match week one to be

769
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:02,279
Speaker 1: a road favorite against the team that I think is

770
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 1: still a bye Like the Spurs team is a play

771
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 1: on team and nothing that I saw him in UH

772
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:13,320
Speaker 1: on Sunday changes that I think they'll give up goals

773
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,800
Speaker 1: but they're gonna score in James Madison.

774
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 3: Maybe Madison looked awesome. Yeah, I was impressed by them,

775
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 3: and you know, Brentford Away is a really tough fixture.

776
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:23,360
Speaker 3: There's a reason nobody wins there.

777
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 1: No, it was and and also just the way the

778
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:28,320
Speaker 1: game went right like you go up then you go down,

779
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 1: you know, I thought Vicario was playing like a sociopath

780
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 1: and goal Uh.

781
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 3: I think that's kind of scary though. Like United, they

782
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 3: can press and turn them over.

783
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:40,440
Speaker 1: But I like even if if if Spurs, if Spurs

784
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 1: go down early in this game, I think it's a

785
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 1: great live bet as well. Like I I think that

786
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 1: I think Spurs have a have a profile of a

787
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:51,920
Speaker 1: team that is uh going to be a live better stream,

788
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 1: especially against teams like United and another you know of

789
00:38:56,600 --> 00:39:00,879
Speaker 1: the Big eight as we'll call him now, the.

790
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 3: The uh you know, Liverpool kind of profiles this way too.

791
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,080
Speaker 3: This is like very Liverpool early clop when they didn't

792
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 3: have a defense and they were just kind of crazy.

793
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 3: And I think the Sands team could be similar. I

794
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 3: do worry a little bit about like what the atte

795
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 3: output looks like, but yeah, and has already won me

796
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 3: over the uh you know, the the defensive flaws existed,

797
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 3: but the game was you know, relatively even we you know,

798
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 3: dominated the shots and they had better chances because they're Brentford.

799
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 3: But it was good, good, good match entertaining too, which I.

800
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 1: Forgot to bet we sat any time goalscorer too, which

801
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 1: united Cottenham.

802
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 3: Last year when Tottenham was like the low of Low's.

803
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 3: It was right after they got destroyed by Newcastle. They

804
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 3: were down like eight zero at halftime and Tottenham went

805
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 3: down too nil early and then came storming back and

806
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 3: like dominated the second half. And that was, you know,

807
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 3: the similar situation. Nobody wanted to bet Totten and they

808
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:51,720
Speaker 3: were a home dog and they got the draw.

809
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 2: BJ three for three here oh yeah, of course. So

810
00:39:57,719 --> 00:39:59,479
Speaker 2: here's I have a trivia question for you guys.

811
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,440
Speaker 4: Against the top nine teams away from home, how many

812
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:04,320
Speaker 4: points did Manchester United have last season?

813
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:04,880
Speaker 2: Five?

814
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:06,759
Speaker 1: Say less, it's less than ten?

815
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,760
Speaker 3: Two jeez at Spurs and at Chelsea.

816
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 4: At Chelsea every other match they lost and they had

817
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 4: a minus twelve expectacles.

818
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:19,879
Speaker 1: They kept the close at Endfield, right, kept the close

819
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 1: at Newcastle.

820
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:23,240
Speaker 2: He closed at Newcastle, kept it close, very.

821
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 3: Competitive at Manchester City.

822
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 2: Very competitive. Yeah. I mean this has just happened.

823
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:31,240
Speaker 4: Time and in time and time and time and time again,

824
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 4: and yet now they're still a road favorite, And I mean,

825
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 4: here's the problem, and Anton kind of the nail on

826
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 4: the head is that Tanag wants his team. You know,

827
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 4: his I X teams were always the most possession dominant,

828
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 4: build up style teams that could just counterpress their way

829
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 4: through the year de VSA and nobody really could build

830
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,280
Speaker 4: out from them. Well, now he's trying to play that style.

831
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 4: He adds Mason. He plays Mason Mount alongside Bruno Fernandes.

832
00:40:56,360 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 4: Neither of them are good counterpressers. So once you get

833
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 4: by that first line of defense, it's Cassamiro and that's

834
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 4: it until you get to the back line of the defense.

835
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 2: And guess what.

836
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 4: Casimiro is kind of getting old and he makes one

837
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 4: bad step in boom. That's what you see is Wolves

838
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:15,680
Speaker 4: just has chance after chance in transition. So if Wolves

839
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 4: is able to create two point two expected goals get

840
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 4: eighteen penalty box touches, what do you think Tottenham is

841
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:23,319
Speaker 4: going to be able to do?

842
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 1: I get it.

843
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 4: Are I agree with Anthony that it is a little

844
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 4: bit scary that Toddam's trying out this new build up

845
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 4: style that it will eventually, I think, become very very

846
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 4: good and they'll be a consistent top sixteen, but you

847
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 4: know it's it's how can you beck United on the

848
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 4: road here, especially as a favorite? So I like Tottenham

849
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:46,400
Speaker 4: drawn a bet at plus one fifteen. I do project

850
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:48,960
Speaker 4: this match dead on at a pick them, you know,

851
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,760
Speaker 4: obviously using priors without making really much adjustments.

852
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:56,320
Speaker 1: So three for three, three for three on Brighton, three

853
00:41:56,719 --> 00:42:00,120
Speaker 1: for three on Spurs maybe will make it three for

854
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 1: three on this next team two you'd like that evident?

855
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:03,919
Speaker 2: Yep.

856
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 1: Traveling to aston Villa, and what better time than right

857
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 1: before we talk about Everden to introduce you to Caldera Lab.

858
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 1: It's a skincare routine that I like to do in

859
00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 1: the morning, right before I brush my teeth. And look,

860
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:22,480
Speaker 1: when you're betting on as many terrible soccer teams as

861
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 1: we all are, you're gonna want to have a decent

862
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:28,879
Speaker 1: skincare routine. And that's exactly what Caldera Lab is. It's

863
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:31,359
Speaker 1: just three products, the clean slate, the base layer, and

864
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 1: the good. The clean slate is a face wash, the

865
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 1: bass layer is the moisturizer, and the good is a

866
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 1: serum I use at night to reduce my visible wrinkles,

867
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 1: most of which are caused by betting on Everton, the

868
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:45,279
Speaker 1: team we're about to talk about next and just for

869
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 1: our audience, you are wonderful wonder goal listeners. We have

870
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00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:10,120
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875
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 1: look younger and like you don't bet on soccer, so

876
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 1: that's what you want. You don't want people knowing that

877
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 1: you're gonna betting. Everdon skincare is important.

878
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:21,240
Speaker 3: Because I do a lot of sweating before ten am Eastern,

879
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 3: so I got a clean slate for the day after

880
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 3: soccer's over, my first Everton bet of the year. I'm

881
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 3: so excited. I missed out on that last weekend. I

882
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 3: felt really low.

883
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 2: Oh my god, and I watch a.

884
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 3: Game and I'm like, oh no.

885
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:38,920
Speaker 1: Here's here's a quick anecdote. So so Everden is traveling

886
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 1: to Villa this weekend. Villa's minus want fifty. Everdon four

887
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 1: to one on the three way line in the draws

888
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:48,399
Speaker 1: three to one. My brother, my older brother, Dave, he's

889
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:52,360
Speaker 1: a a big Spurs guy invited me over so that

890
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:56,279
Speaker 1: our daughters can can play well. We watched Everton and

891
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 1: I texted him back yes, only because I think that

892
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:00,919
Speaker 1: they're gonna win, Like I actually feel really good about

893
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 1: this game. Don't want Isla to see me when Everton is.

894
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,759
Speaker 1: She's already seen me, like, you know enough when they're

895
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:10,839
Speaker 1: losing games to Wolves and Bourn myths and stuff, So

896
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 1: I don't she already knows her dad's a loser. I

897
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:15,920
Speaker 1: don't want to keep reminding her, especially on a beautiful

898
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: summer morning. Neil Mopie missed that first shot. It was

899
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:23,320
Speaker 1: a great take for a shot from just outside the box,

900
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 1: and I was like, damn, they look good. And then

901
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 1: they proceeded just to kick the ball burn Leno, mostly

902
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 1: off the foot of Neil Mopie, and my brother got

903
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:37,360
Speaker 1: bless him. Just kept reminding me they're they're gonna score it,

904
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 1: like they're they're right there, They're right on the doorstep,

905
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:42,400
Speaker 1: and I agreed with him. I was like, yeah, this

906
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:45,879
Speaker 1: is there, the goal is coming. And then Michael Keene

907
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:48,880
Speaker 1: scores a goal that gets disallowed and I'm in the

908
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,760
Speaker 1: other room and I hear him clap and he comes

909
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 1: in He's like, Keene just scored one nothing, and I

910
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:57,880
Speaker 1: was like, picked up ilid come back in and she

911
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 1: she was doing some some bullshit, so I couldn't even

912
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 1: see the replay or anything. And I'm so, I'm I

913
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 1: just assumed that evidence up one nil at this point

914
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 1: for like four minutes. And then I look up at

915
00:45:07,040 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 1: the score where I say it's nil nil, and I'm like,

916
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 1: what happened. He's like, yeah, they choked it off or

917
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 1: whatever left at halftime, and I got to see me

918
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:19,760
Speaker 1: just have an absolute meltdown in the second half because

919
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 1: it couldn't have been more obvious. And I know better,

920
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 1: Like I know, I know so much better than to

921
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 1: think that a Neil Malpie missed chance four minutes into

922
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 1: a game from outside the box is a hardbringer of

923
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:34,320
Speaker 1: good things to come.

924
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:36,400
Speaker 2: Against Fulham, of all seems Michael.

925
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:38,799
Speaker 1: What was I thinking? I have no idea. Anyways, I'm

926
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 1: on Everden here. I think it's they played well, they

927
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:43,279
Speaker 1: can't score. Neil Malpie will be leading the line again

928
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:46,959
Speaker 1: most likely. And I what happened to dcl He was hurt,

929
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 1: got hurt again, and hurt again, and hurt again. And

930
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 1: Sean Ditch said that he uh, his rehab, he's not

931
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,920
Speaker 1: done with his rehab. I think they want him. They

932
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 1: don't want him coming back for you know, thirty minute

933
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 1: stint and then getting hurt again. They want they want Yeah,

934
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:05,399
Speaker 1: they want him ninety minutes because they know they're gonna

935
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:07,359
Speaker 1: get three games out of him, so they better all

936
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,439
Speaker 1: be three nineties. But good news is that they brought

937
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 1: in a striker from Sporting who's a nineteen year old

938
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 1: project for the future, so he'll he'll definitely help him.

939
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 1: But most expected goals created by Everden If you went

940
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 1: back to last year, no team created more expected goals

941
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:29,360
Speaker 1: without scoring a goal than they did against Fulham on Saturday.

942
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:30,719
Speaker 1: How can you not bet them here?

943
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 2: It's a great spot. I mean, I also like the

944
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 2: over two and a half.

945
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 1: You're not gonna score, but Villa the prize score three.

946
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:41,720
Speaker 4: Tyrone Mings is now gonna be out for an extended

947
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 4: period of times. That means it's gonna be Powa Torres

948
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:45,880
Speaker 4: back there, which yes, is going to be great for

949
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 4: Astonville in their build up play.

950
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 2: But he's not a great defender.

951
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 4: He's not a physical defender, he's not great in the air,

952
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 4: He's not great defending inside the box. And that's something

953
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 4: that Tyrone Mings really provided for aston Villa. He was

954
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 4: their best last day defender, blocking shots, defending inside the

955
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 4: penalty area, being one of the best aerial dual winners

956
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:06,960
Speaker 4: in the Premier League. Losing that is going to be

957
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 4: incredibly key for them and aston Villa as well. I mean,

958
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 4: who Namory is kind of limiting his team because he

959
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 4: just wants to play out of the back. He doesn't

960
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:18,239
Speaker 4: really want to try and even play in transition. It's

961
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 4: just have to build out of the back to build

962
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:21,279
Speaker 4: the back, and that's what kind of what you saw

963
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:24,319
Speaker 4: against Newcastle is they just beat them up. They forced

964
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:26,799
Speaker 4: a bunch of high turnovers and got in transitional opportunities

965
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:27,480
Speaker 4: and that was that.

966
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:30,920
Speaker 2: Michael. Do you know who.

967
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:34,399
Speaker 4: Created the second most high turnovers other than Manchester United.

968
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 2: In match Week one?

969
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 1: Everton?

970
00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:40,320
Speaker 4: Everton forced fourteen high turnovers against Fuld.

971
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 1: They were so good except for the most important thing.

972
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 4: He's not a low block guy anymore. We've said this

973
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:51,239
Speaker 4: a million times, but he's going to come out, he's

974
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:53,399
Speaker 4: going to press you. He's going to make this thing

975
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:56,960
Speaker 4: high event style, back and forth, and that's exactly what

976
00:47:57,000 --> 00:48:00,799
Speaker 4: he did to aston Villa on February twenty fifth last year.

977
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 4: I don't know if you remember that match, but Everton

978
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 4: won the expected goals battle. They were by far the

979
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:08,600
Speaker 4: better team, and then aston Villa makes a penalty, they

980
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:11,640
Speaker 4: convert a transitional opportunity and they win the match to nothing,

981
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 4: despite you know, losing on non penalty expected goals one

982
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 4: point nine two point nine. So yeah, I remember that match. Yeah, No,

983
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:23,959
Speaker 4: I love Everton here. I love Over two and a half.

984
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 4: Sean Ditsche matches since he took over last season averaging

985
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:31,440
Speaker 4: well over three expected goals. In Miami matches since he

986
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 4: took over on November first are averaging two point seven

987
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 4: expected goals, so a total of two and a half

988
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 4: just sitting at minus one ten for a match that

989
00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 4: is most likely going to be very up and down

990
00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:44,480
Speaker 4: for an aston Villa team that wants to build it out

991
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:46,319
Speaker 4: of the back, for an Everton team that's gonna press

992
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 4: them high, it's going to create a lot of chaos.

993
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:50,520
Speaker 4: So like Over two and a half, and I like

994
00:48:50,520 --> 00:48:51,239
Speaker 4: Everton as well.

995
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 1: I'm I think part of what's made dische kind of

996
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:01,799
Speaker 1: embrace some more hostile defensive press is that when when

997
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:04,799
Speaker 1: Everdon win the ball. Like they've got great progressors like

998
00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:12,239
Speaker 1: Woby's awesome. So like they they they I think in

999
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:15,879
Speaker 1: the center, they're they're center of their defense. Can can

1000
00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 1: still be a headache with especially with Michael Keinson. But

1001
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:24,080
Speaker 1: everything was working Ashley Young maybe uh, maybe he can

1002
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:26,000
Speaker 1: earn an England call up to to euro if he

1003
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:28,479
Speaker 1: keeps playing as well as he did as a thirty

1004
00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 1: nine year old. But everything was working. But then the

1005
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 1: ball and it's on on Neil Mopi's foot and look,

1006
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 1: I'm rooting for the guy, I obviously, and it's just

1007
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:39,760
Speaker 1: you just sit there and you wonder how it's harder.

1008
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:41,560
Speaker 1: It's it's got to be harder at this point for

1009
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:45,040
Speaker 1: this guy to missing these chances than to banking them.

1010
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 1: But like I said, Everdon plus plus four, they're as

1011
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:49,319
Speaker 1: high as plus four fifty.

1012
00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:54,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, Villa no Bundia for a while. Ming's out, Ramsey.

1013
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:54,799
Speaker 1: Out, Ramsey's out.

1014
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:57,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like it's a lot of losses to that midfield

1015
00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:01,279
Speaker 3: to attacking group that like wasn't that good last year,

1016
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:04,160
Speaker 3: Like they were fine, but I think Everton turns them

1017
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 3: over a bunch and is live here. So I agree, all.

1018
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 1: Right, let's finish up the Premier League section. With these

1019
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:12,760
Speaker 1: last two matches west Ham and Chelsea. The Hammers plus

1020
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:16,360
Speaker 1: three hundred at home, they drew Bourne, myth won one.

1021
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:19,759
Speaker 1: Chelsea might as well ten to Joss plus two sixty. Ah,

1022
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:22,279
Speaker 1: this is an easy pass for me. I'm I'm I'm

1023
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 1: not going near it.

1024
00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 3: Jay, I'm curious, Like, do you have west Ham favorite here?

1025
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 1: No?

1026
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:29,720
Speaker 2: I made huge I made massive adjustments to Chelsea.

1027
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:30,880
Speaker 3: Oh you did all right?

1028
00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:32,160
Speaker 1: You just went off.

1029
00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:35,760
Speaker 2: I made massive astments. I could Chelsea plus one thirty,

1030
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:37,400
Speaker 2: so we'll see.

1031
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is if you just s went off of

1032
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:43,360
Speaker 3: like last year's data. This is a crazy line for

1033
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:44,560
Speaker 3: Chelsea to be a real favorite.

1034
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I mean it's an interesting conversation to have,

1035
00:50:48,239 --> 00:50:50,319
Speaker 1: is like how far does it go in favor of Chelsea?

1036
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 3: Like is Moyes cacedo? That's good? Is he the best

1037
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:55,720
Speaker 3: player in the league? They still can't score at west Ham.

1038
00:50:56,160 --> 00:50:58,080
Speaker 3: I didn't think they played well against Bournemouth at all.

1039
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:01,319
Speaker 3: Couldn't stream together passes. They had a couple of good transitions,

1040
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:05,240
Speaker 3: they had, you know, a couple of moments, but couldn't

1041
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:07,880
Speaker 3: control the game. Like just I mean, you gave up

1042
00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:12,000
Speaker 3: sixty percent of the Bottlemorren Withuth. You know, it was fine,

1043
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 3: really impressed. So yeah, I kind of want to pass

1044
00:51:16,239 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 3: here and just watch this match, and I think we'll

1045
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:18,760
Speaker 3: learn a lot about both teams.

1046
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:21,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, if I mean, if you're looking for spots.

1047
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 3: I mean maybe I mean Chelsea. You know we talked

1048
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:29,319
Speaker 3: about their lack of shots and west Ham's lack of shots. Yeah,

1049
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:30,920
Speaker 3: it's so hard.

1050
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:35,319
Speaker 4: I mean west hamas they're bad and it looks like

1051
00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 4: Pacata's gone. I don't know if maybe if he sticks

1052
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:43,400
Speaker 4: around for this match for one more Swan song, maybe

1053
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:46,239
Speaker 4: maybe you could talk me into west Ham. But I

1054
00:51:46,239 --> 00:51:48,560
Speaker 4: have Chelsea projected at plus one thirty, and that's after

1055
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 4: making some pretty sizable bumps for them for their transfer

1056
00:51:53,680 --> 00:51:56,200
Speaker 4: market activity and new manager and everything like that.

1057
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:58,000
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, like Anthony said, if you're just

1058
00:51:58,040 --> 00:51:59,320
Speaker 2: going purely unexpected.

1059
00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:03,960
Speaker 4: Gold eventual from last seas, I mean, this line is insane.

1060
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:04,840
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1061
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:10,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Chelsea Chelsea Spurs are probably the two

1062
00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:14,239
Speaker 1: teams that I would say I'm outside of the newly

1063
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:16,600
Speaker 1: promoted side said like, I think you can kind of

1064
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:20,280
Speaker 1: punt the numbers from from last year a little bit. Yeah,

1065
00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 1: because it's just so hard to work in these adjustments,

1066
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:25,880
Speaker 1: a lot of pencil and paper handicapping. And I think

1067
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:27,719
Speaker 1: it was John Champion who was calling their gam against

1068
00:52:27,719 --> 00:52:31,560
Speaker 1: Liverpool who used the word insipid to describe Chelsea last year.

1069
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:33,399
Speaker 1: And they're just not going to be insipid this year.

1070
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:35,600
Speaker 1: So it's hard to take the data from an insipid

1071
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:38,959
Speaker 1: season and put it and apply it to a team

1072
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:41,880
Speaker 1: that should improve drastically.

1073
00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:45,680
Speaker 3: It's true, but also minutes half of their minutes half

1074
00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 3: they're actually.

1075
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 4: Gone, yeah exactly. But then they also look at this

1076
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:50,919
Speaker 4: and you but then you have to look at the line.

1077
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:55,319
Speaker 4: You say Chelsea minus one twelve and you just sit

1078
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:57,480
Speaker 4: there and you look at that, and you say, obviously

1079
00:52:57,480 --> 00:52:58,680
Speaker 4: they're way way better.

1080
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:00,400
Speaker 2: But how far we go?

1081
00:53:01,120 --> 00:53:04,000
Speaker 1: Right? If this was April first, like we'd all be

1082
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:05,359
Speaker 1: we'd beat tough.

1083
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:06,640
Speaker 2: Chelsea were like.

1084
00:53:06,640 --> 00:53:09,279
Speaker 3: Minus one tenant Wolves last year I bet it and

1085
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:11,719
Speaker 3: they lost. Like how is this? I mean, how's that

1086
00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:14,480
Speaker 3: right now? That makes more sense? Chelsa you might as

1087
00:53:14,480 --> 00:53:15,040
Speaker 3: one ten at.

1088
00:53:14,920 --> 00:53:17,360
Speaker 1: West Ham It's like whoa, yep, yeah.

1089
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:19,720
Speaker 3: Market's very down on the Hammers too, which is interesting.

1090
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:20,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, they I mean.

1091
00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:22,319
Speaker 3: Given that line at Bourne, myth I thought we'd get

1092
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 3: a better number, and I thought we'd get a better

1093
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:25,319
Speaker 3: number here, all.

1094
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:28,120
Speaker 1: Right, so passed for us. Let's wrap it up here

1095
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:34,440
Speaker 1: with your Arsenal bj ah Man Monday at football at

1096
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:39,799
Speaker 1: Cellars Park, Palaces plus five hundred. Roy Hodgson, baby trying

1097
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:42,080
Speaker 1: to fight people. God love the man.

1098
00:53:42,960 --> 00:53:44,240
Speaker 3: It's just is that what happened?

1099
00:53:44,880 --> 00:53:52,279
Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, he didn't like it, which hey I wouldn't either. Roy.

1100
00:53:54,200 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 1: Arsenals minus won seventy five on the road to draw

1101
00:53:56,120 --> 00:54:01,399
Speaker 1: is three to one. We uh remember this fixture from

1102
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:04,799
Speaker 1: last year because it's the opening fixture in Palace. Ran

1103
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:08,920
Speaker 1: the show. But we're very unlucky right against Arsenal in

1104
00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:12,160
Speaker 1: a two nil loss. I think that this number looks right.

1105
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:15,520
Speaker 1: It's another pretty easy pass, which is unfortunate Jerry and

1106
00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 1: Timber for Arsenal is out for the season.

1107
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:22,440
Speaker 3: Ye, so much for that defensive depth that PJ was hyping.

1108
00:54:22,600 --> 00:54:25,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, now we got Tomys back, We're okay.

1109
00:54:25,480 --> 00:54:26,480
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1110
00:54:26,520 --> 00:54:29,279
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts away from one?

1111
00:54:29,320 --> 00:54:32,919
Speaker 3: I'm on the the Eagles at home one point two five.

1112
00:54:33,000 --> 00:54:36,120
Speaker 3: I'm all over the Eagles minus one fifteen ish, I

1113
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:40,759
Speaker 3: bet it right now the way it's sitting. Yeah, I mean, look,

1114
00:54:40,760 --> 00:54:44,080
Speaker 3: we talked about Arsenal like, if Soccer and Martinelli run

1115
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:45,719
Speaker 3: this good all year like they did last year, they're

1116
00:54:45,719 --> 00:54:47,560
Speaker 3: going to be really really good again. If they progress

1117
00:54:47,560 --> 00:54:48,880
Speaker 3: at all, then they're in the top four race. I

1118
00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:53,120
Speaker 3: think it's you know, Palace are still going to be

1119
00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:55,279
Speaker 3: a very difficult defensive team to break down. They're just

1120
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:57,200
Speaker 3: not gonna be able to score against any good teams

1121
00:54:57,640 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 3: PJ pretty much.

1122
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:01,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that's I mean, I don't really see a

1123
00:55:01,960 --> 00:55:05,240
Speaker 4: path here for Crystal Palace scoring. You know, Timber Losing

1124
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:09,799
Speaker 4: Timber obviously hurts. But Arsenal, they have they have death,

1125
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:10,920
Speaker 4: they have keywar, they have.

1126
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:12,000
Speaker 2: They thought it.

1127
00:55:12,040 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 4: Ben White into a right center back position, played Thomas

1128
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:16,440
Speaker 4: Party as a right back so that he could invert

1129
00:55:16,920 --> 00:55:20,920
Speaker 4: alongside Declan Rice, which gives them more solidity and transitional defending.

1130
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:23,239
Speaker 4: So it's gonna be very difficult for Crystal Palace to

1131
00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:25,719
Speaker 4: actually score here if they want to play a transitional

1132
00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:28,759
Speaker 4: type match. So, but yeah, the number looks about right

1133
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:30,640
Speaker 4: for me. I had Arsenal projected of minus.

1134
00:55:30,360 --> 00:55:31,000
Speaker 2: One thirty three.

1135
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:34,000
Speaker 4: So if I had to bet anything, and if I

1136
00:55:34,080 --> 00:55:36,640
Speaker 4: was neutral, I guess you could make a case that,

1137
00:55:37,239 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 4: you know, the number one Palaces maybe has a little

1138
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:41,759
Speaker 4: bit of expected value, but again, I don't really want

1139
00:55:41,800 --> 00:55:43,560
Speaker 4: to get anywhere near the palace attack.

1140
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:46,320
Speaker 3: BJ showing value against his gunners regularly is always.

1141
00:55:46,040 --> 00:55:49,680
Speaker 2: Finn I am because my projections are unbiased, like unlike.

1142
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:51,720
Speaker 3: Because they overperformed their members badly.

1143
00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:56,120
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, Anthony Sprinkle's in the Liverpool adjustment automatically. Okay, Yeah,

1144
00:55:56,200 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 1: let's let's move on. That's that's a Premier League doune

1145
00:55:58,200 --> 00:56:00,239
Speaker 1: and dusted. Uh, we'll get back to it at the

1146
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:03,640
Speaker 1: end of the show with our favorite bets to Germany

1147
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:08,359
Speaker 1: now Harry Kane. Harry Kane at Bayern Munich. I think

1148
00:56:08,680 --> 00:56:11,160
Speaker 1: my favorite bet for for this weekend and the Bundesliga

1149
00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 1: is going to be probably Bremen to beat, to beat

1150
00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:18,160
Speaker 1: Kane or to score first. He's minus two fifty is

1151
00:56:18,160 --> 00:56:21,120
Speaker 1: at any time goals scorer, by the way, has.

1152
00:56:20,880 --> 00:56:23,520
Speaker 4: Has won every one of these fixtures on this Friday

1153
00:56:23,560 --> 00:56:24,839
Speaker 4: opener six nothing for.

1154
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 1: Like, yeah, seven years that went against gdbox was that

1155
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:30,439
Speaker 1: Wait a second, A couple of a couple of years

1156
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:32,239
Speaker 1: ago destroyed them.

1157
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 3: It was the Joe scally game.

1158
00:56:33,680 --> 00:56:35,560
Speaker 1: Joe Joe Scalley, Right, I was gonna say it was

1159
00:56:35,600 --> 00:56:36,600
Speaker 1: the Philly kid.

1160
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:39,319
Speaker 4: I feel like they played Shaka every opening Friday and

1161
00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:40,480
Speaker 4: just beat them six nothing.

1162
00:56:40,719 --> 00:56:43,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't remember last year. I do remember the

1163
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:48,280
Speaker 3: Bayern Gold Box. Yeah, the just Electric too, maybe Electric Factory,

1164
00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:50,520
Speaker 3: and it was we had like three X game we

1165
00:56:50,560 --> 00:56:51,640
Speaker 3: should have won. Yeah, it was great.

1166
00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:55,080
Speaker 1: Yep uh yeah. I'm gonna try to play against Byron

1167
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:57,000
Speaker 1: here somehow and play against Kane, but.

1168
00:56:57,520 --> 00:56:59,320
Speaker 3: Maybe Bremen to score first, I don't.

1169
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:02,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, or Kane to get red carded.

1170
00:57:02,840 --> 00:57:05,320
Speaker 3: We'll have more conversation Top in Bundesliga and Byron in

1171
00:57:05,360 --> 00:57:07,399
Speaker 3: the future when we when we didn't run super long

1172
00:57:07,440 --> 00:57:10,520
Speaker 3: on the Premier League discussion because we're running along here,

1173
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 3: but Byron Undertookle have just not been good.

1174
00:57:12,960 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 2: They have to have.

1175
00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 1: All right, Anthony was your favorite bet in Geremany?

1176
00:57:15,760 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean what a matchup to start the season

1177
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:22,000
Speaker 3: Uno and Berlin against Mines Mines plus a half minus

1178
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:25,040
Speaker 3: one ten. I mean we had this conversation. I think

1179
00:57:25,080 --> 00:57:26,920
Speaker 3: I bet at both fixtures last year. I bet the

1180
00:57:27,120 --> 00:57:28,880
Speaker 3: team on the road plus a half and just was like,

1181
00:57:28,960 --> 00:57:30,720
Speaker 3: this match ends in a draw more often than any

1182
00:57:30,720 --> 00:57:33,080
Speaker 3: other fixture in the Bundesliga because of how low event

1183
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:35,360
Speaker 3: these two teams are they had the same goal difference,

1184
00:57:35,360 --> 00:57:38,959
Speaker 3: same XG difference. Mines has a more valuable transfer team.

1185
00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:41,640
Speaker 3: You know, we like both managers. We think they both

1186
00:57:41,720 --> 00:57:43,400
Speaker 3: kind of get more out of their talent than what

1187
00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:46,840
Speaker 3: the talent suggests. But like, yeah, I mean cool in

1188
00:57:46,840 --> 00:57:49,040
Speaker 3: the Champions League, they finish fourth last year, they ran

1189
00:57:49,200 --> 00:57:51,960
Speaker 3: unbelievably well to do it. You look at the way

1190
00:57:52,000 --> 00:57:54,040
Speaker 3: these squads project this year. They're not that much different

1191
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:55,720
Speaker 3: from each other. So I'm gonna take the half goal

1192
00:57:55,760 --> 00:57:57,120
Speaker 3: and probably ends in a draw.

1193
00:57:57,480 --> 00:57:58,439
Speaker 1: BJ What about you?

1194
00:57:58,520 --> 00:58:01,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Leipzig Drono Bett plus swindle four.

1195
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:04,960
Speaker 4: Why are they an underdog against Leverkusen given what we

1196
00:58:05,000 --> 00:58:07,480
Speaker 4: saw last season? Like, I get that Leipzig has had

1197
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:10,000
Speaker 4: a bunch of turnover and they've lost Siba sly and

1198
00:58:10,000 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 4: they've lost in Cucku. But we've talked to me and

1199
00:58:12,080 --> 00:58:14,240
Speaker 4: Anthony talked about this in our European preview, is that

1200
00:58:14,320 --> 00:58:17,640
Speaker 4: they've pretty much retooled and gotten been about the same offensively,

1201
00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 4: adding cessco as, adding Obenda, adding Shabi Simones. They're just

1202
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:24,280
Speaker 4: as good offensively as they were last season. And yes,

1203
00:58:25,160 --> 00:58:28,520
Speaker 4: Gavardioli leaving to Manchester City obviously hurts their defense, but

1204
00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:30,680
Speaker 4: they still have a solid back line. I mean, under

1205
00:58:30,720 --> 00:58:32,840
Speaker 4: Marco Rosa, they were one of the best defensive teams

1206
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:35,440
Speaker 4: across Europe last season. That's not just going to completely

1207
00:58:35,520 --> 00:58:38,680
Speaker 4: drop off just because they lose one defender. And if

1208
00:58:38,720 --> 00:58:40,600
Speaker 4: you look at the underlying metrics, I mean, they were

1209
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:45,680
Speaker 4: miles better than Leverkusen. So I'm really not so sure

1210
00:58:45,680 --> 00:58:48,040
Speaker 4: that a lever Couson team that's not gonna have Patrick Shick,

1211
00:58:48,200 --> 00:58:50,040
Speaker 4: that's gonna be without one of their main defenders, that's

1212
00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:54,000
Speaker 4: gonna be without that obviously has lost Mussa Diabi should

1213
00:58:54,040 --> 00:58:54,760
Speaker 4: be even a.

1214
00:58:54,720 --> 00:58:56,720
Speaker 2: Home favorite here against Leipzig, so I like them. Drown

1215
00:58:56,760 --> 00:58:59,120
Speaker 2: O bet h plus four.

1216
00:58:59,560 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 3: Abi was the great equalizer because he was so good

1217
00:59:01,800 --> 00:59:03,440
Speaker 3: at getting in behind and just like scoring a goal

1218
00:59:03,520 --> 00:59:05,800
Speaker 3: out of nothing. They losing him I think is pretty

1219
00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:06,640
Speaker 3: important for this team.

1220
00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:09,919
Speaker 1: Hard to replace uh La Liga. It's just you BJ.

1221
00:59:10,120 --> 00:59:12,840
Speaker 1: You're on an island, not Mayork, but an island.

1222
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:17,040
Speaker 4: Oh well, Athletico rial bettis over two and a half

1223
00:59:17,040 --> 00:59:19,120
Speaker 4: goals at plus one twenty. We can't keep hanging these

1224
00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 4: over two and a halfs at plus money with Athletico

1225
00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 4: Michael Diego Simoni. I've said this many times, he's changed.

1226
00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:27,040
Speaker 4: He's a changed man.

1227
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:28,560
Speaker 1: Sew Detsch.

1228
00:59:28,720 --> 00:59:30,560
Speaker 2: They two low block.

1229
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:34,880
Speaker 4: It is high event foot on the pedal, attacking football

1230
00:59:35,320 --> 00:59:39,080
Speaker 4: from Diego Simeoni. Since the beginning of March, he switched

1231
00:59:39,120 --> 00:59:42,120
Speaker 4: this formation to a five three to two, three, five

1232
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:45,400
Speaker 4: to two whatever to provide more with you know, attack

1233
00:59:45,440 --> 00:59:47,400
Speaker 4: in the wide areas, create more space in the middle

1234
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:51,760
Speaker 4: for Greasman Marata, Memphis to Pi. His matches since that

1235
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:54,640
Speaker 4: beginning of March first are averaging three point three seven

1236
00:59:54,720 --> 00:59:58,640
Speaker 4: expected goals. That's insane and we saw it in the

1237
00:59:58,640 --> 01:00:01,040
Speaker 4: first match against Gernada. They scored three goals, created about

1238
01:00:01,120 --> 01:00:04,760
Speaker 4: three expected goals. Rio Bennis is, you know, a very

1239
01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:07,640
Speaker 4: very average La League team in terms of they like

1240
01:00:07,640 --> 01:00:08,880
Speaker 4: to build out of the back. They like to play

1241
01:00:08,920 --> 01:00:11,800
Speaker 4: kind of slow possession. But with Athletico's new style, we

1242
01:00:11,840 --> 01:00:14,680
Speaker 4: can't keep haying these over two and a half's at

1243
01:00:14,720 --> 01:00:18,120
Speaker 4: plus one twenty. So I'm gonna keep betting them until

1244
01:00:18,280 --> 01:00:19,280
Speaker 4: the market adjusts.

1245
01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:20,960
Speaker 1: Syria eyes back.

1246
01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:22,880
Speaker 2: It is welcome back Italy.

1247
01:00:23,120 --> 01:00:24,840
Speaker 1: What do you got? What do you get? Oh?

1248
01:00:24,840 --> 01:00:25,160
Speaker 2: I got a?

1249
01:00:25,280 --> 01:00:29,040
Speaker 4: I mean we can't kick off European season without a

1250
01:00:29,080 --> 01:00:32,760
Speaker 4: both team to score no right Leche Latzio both teams

1251
01:00:32,760 --> 01:00:37,920
Speaker 4: to score no minus one ten. Lecha worst offensive team

1252
01:00:38,040 --> 01:00:40,760
Speaker 4: in Syria LA season point eight three non penalty expected

1253
01:00:40,800 --> 01:00:45,240
Speaker 4: goals for ninety but did only allow around one expected

1254
01:00:45,280 --> 01:00:48,120
Speaker 4: goal for ninety defensively, so a very very good defensive outfit,

1255
01:00:48,240 --> 01:00:51,000
Speaker 4: very very good at defending their penalty area. Latzio just

1256
01:00:51,080 --> 01:00:54,000
Speaker 4: lost Milinkovich Savage, who is their best ball progressor best

1257
01:00:54,040 --> 01:00:58,360
Speaker 4: guy passing to Serra Mobili for him to overperform. Lotzio

1258
01:00:58,480 --> 01:01:01,680
Speaker 4: was a middling offensive team in Syria. Ab I expected

1259
01:01:01,680 --> 01:01:05,320
Speaker 4: goals that obviously we've moaned about them over and over again.

1260
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:10,080
Speaker 4: They overperformed offensively like crazy. So minus one ten I

1261
01:01:10,080 --> 01:01:11,840
Speaker 4: think is too short. I have a predicted at minus

1262
01:01:11,840 --> 01:01:16,320
Speaker 4: one seventy. So both teams have scored no and Leche and.

1263
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:19,440
Speaker 1: Lazio Anthony, you are also going to ring in a

1264
01:01:19,480 --> 01:01:22,200
Speaker 1: new Seria season with a bit yeah.

1265
01:01:22,120 --> 01:01:24,800
Speaker 3: Bologna plus a half against AC Milan. I have my

1266
01:01:24,880 --> 01:01:27,760
Speaker 3: question marks about Milan's midfield. They brought in some fun

1267
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:30,240
Speaker 3: signings and I think they could end up better in

1268
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:34,160
Speaker 3: the long run as a result, but in the signings

1269
01:01:34,200 --> 01:01:39,280
Speaker 3: being unus musa Christian Pulisic, Samjuan Chaquees, some fun wingers,

1270
01:01:39,320 --> 01:01:42,120
Speaker 3: especially Pulisics, should start out wide on the right for

1271
01:01:42,200 --> 01:01:45,600
Speaker 3: them this weekend. But the midfield is just kind of

1272
01:01:45,600 --> 01:01:47,800
Speaker 3: a mess. They lost to Nali, they haven't realplaced him.

1273
01:01:47,880 --> 01:01:51,080
Speaker 3: I'm really not still sold on Musa. He's not expected

1274
01:01:51,120 --> 01:01:54,040
Speaker 3: to start here. It could be a kru nitch at

1275
01:01:54,080 --> 01:01:56,680
Speaker 3: the base of midfield. He's kind of light and ball winning.

1276
01:01:56,720 --> 01:01:59,200
Speaker 3: Benisse Ara is injured and they, like I said, they

1277
01:01:59,200 --> 01:02:01,280
Speaker 3: lost Tonali, so I think there's gonna be some growing

1278
01:02:01,320 --> 01:02:04,560
Speaker 3: pains from Melan here and as a road favorite pretty

1279
01:02:04,640 --> 01:02:06,280
Speaker 3: much even you know, minuts a half on the road,

1280
01:02:06,280 --> 01:02:08,479
Speaker 3: I like Bolowna plus a half catching that half goal

1281
01:02:09,440 --> 01:02:11,520
Speaker 3: because I think that Milan is going to grow into

1282
01:02:11,560 --> 01:02:14,520
Speaker 3: this season. I think they're gonna struggle early. Meanwhile, Daru,

1283
01:02:14,600 --> 01:02:16,440
Speaker 3: by the way, still getting over three shots FORER ninety,

1284
01:02:16,440 --> 01:02:19,040
Speaker 3: which is crazy. He is thirty five. So the clip

1285
01:02:19,040 --> 01:02:20,960
Speaker 3: could coming to any time for Olivier, although I'm not

1286
01:02:21,000 --> 01:02:23,440
Speaker 3: betting against that happening because he's timeless and.

1287
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:28,439
Speaker 1: Ageless, incredibly good looking. All right, legal real quick? Uh,

1288
01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:29,600
Speaker 1: BJ you can go first.

1289
01:02:29,840 --> 01:02:32,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is kind of shocking for me, but I

1290
01:02:32,080 --> 01:02:35,960
Speaker 4: like PSG minus won forty five to lose, and Bape's

1291
01:02:36,040 --> 01:02:37,919
Speaker 4: back looks like they've squashed the beef.

1292
01:02:37,920 --> 01:02:40,880
Speaker 2: He's going to be back in the selection. So this

1293
01:02:41,520 --> 01:02:43,320
Speaker 2: Amar goes Amar is gone.

1294
01:02:44,320 --> 01:02:47,120
Speaker 4: This number is just really really too low for a

1295
01:02:47,160 --> 01:02:49,080
Speaker 4: team that's now going to have him Bapa, And I

1296
01:02:49,120 --> 01:02:52,160
Speaker 4: think the PSG signings over the summer, I think it's

1297
01:02:52,160 --> 01:02:54,320
Speaker 4: going to help them in the long run defensively, but

1298
01:02:54,360 --> 01:02:56,439
Speaker 4: they needed in Bape offensively, like, we can't be playing

1299
01:02:56,440 --> 01:02:58,760
Speaker 4: a front three of Asensio and Sala Ramos and Kenyon

1300
01:02:58,840 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 4: Lee if you're going to compete for the Champions League.

1301
01:03:01,600 --> 01:03:04,320
Speaker 4: So bringing Babe back really makes them better to lose.

1302
01:03:04,760 --> 01:03:07,400
Speaker 4: Lost to of their best midfielders in the transfer window

1303
01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:12,000
Speaker 4: and didn't really replace them, and PSG hammered them in

1304
01:03:12,080 --> 01:03:15,920
Speaker 4: both meetings last season. So I think minus one forty

1305
01:03:15,960 --> 01:03:18,640
Speaker 4: five is far far too short for a PSG team

1306
01:03:18,640 --> 01:03:21,320
Speaker 4: that's going to have in Bope this weekend on the

1307
01:03:21,400 --> 01:03:22,040
Speaker 4: road to lose.

1308
01:03:22,480 --> 01:03:25,440
Speaker 1: All right, Anthony, look, in betting we talk about the

1309
01:03:25,480 --> 01:03:26,080
Speaker 1: post hype.

1310
01:03:26,560 --> 01:03:30,160
Speaker 3: Strasburg two years ago was a good team plus point

1311
01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:33,120
Speaker 3: three extra difference. They were so good that bjn I

1312
01:03:33,160 --> 01:03:34,880
Speaker 3: bought in like suckers and thought they could make a

1313
01:03:34,920 --> 01:03:35,760
Speaker 3: run out of top four.

1314
01:03:35,960 --> 01:03:36,360
Speaker 2: We did.

1315
01:03:36,760 --> 01:03:39,720
Speaker 3: They had a Murphy's loss season of which I am

1316
01:03:39,760 --> 01:03:42,240
Speaker 3: now willing to throw out and say that you need

1317
01:03:42,280 --> 01:03:45,480
Speaker 3: to stop caring about everything they went wrong last year

1318
01:03:45,480 --> 01:03:48,640
Speaker 3: with this team, because they've retooled. They both up the midfield,

1319
01:03:48,680 --> 01:03:51,560
Speaker 3: improved the defense, and hired a manager that we all

1320
01:03:51,600 --> 01:03:53,720
Speaker 3: I think like here in Patrick Vieira, and had a

1321
01:03:53,880 --> 01:03:58,200
Speaker 3: very impressive showing at home against Leone last weekend. I

1322
01:03:58,240 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 3: know they got out shot in the end. I think

1323
01:03:59,880 --> 01:04:02,080
Speaker 3: it was like twenty three to twenty eight to seven,

1324
01:04:02,160 --> 01:04:05,480
Speaker 3: but fifteen of those shots came after they were up

1325
01:04:05,480 --> 01:04:08,760
Speaker 3: to nil and they were winning on next year, winning

1326
01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:11,400
Speaker 3: on shots, out playing them in their first eighty minutes,

1327
01:04:11,680 --> 01:04:13,240
Speaker 3: and then it was just a barrage from Leon at

1328
01:04:13,240 --> 01:04:16,440
Speaker 3: the end. Now they are plus a half at Monaco,

1329
01:04:16,680 --> 01:04:20,320
Speaker 3: who ran really well defensively last year and really has

1330
01:04:20,360 --> 01:04:23,520
Speaker 3: some real holes. And I really don't think there's that

1331
01:04:23,520 --> 01:04:24,960
Speaker 3: big of a gap between these two teams when you

1332
01:04:24,960 --> 01:04:27,680
Speaker 3: look at their underlying numbers anymore and their talent level.

1333
01:04:27,760 --> 01:04:32,920
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take Strasburg plus a half at Monaco all.

1334
01:04:32,840 --> 01:04:35,480
Speaker 1: Right now at the moment, we all look forward to

1335
01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:40,080
Speaker 1: a week our three like underdog parlay BJ, You're gonna

1336
01:04:40,080 --> 01:04:43,520
Speaker 1: go first, I'll go second. In the name Anthony's gonna

1337
01:04:43,960 --> 01:04:47,000
Speaker 1: bring us home with a doozy here. This parlay is

1338
01:04:47,000 --> 01:04:49,280
Speaker 1: gonna pay out three hundred and six or three hundred

1339
01:04:49,280 --> 01:04:50,320
Speaker 1: and seven to one.

1340
01:04:50,360 --> 01:04:51,600
Speaker 3: Oh and three last weekend.

1341
01:04:52,240 --> 01:04:54,520
Speaker 1: Yeah no, so not only not only is a three

1342
01:04:54,600 --> 01:04:57,440
Speaker 1: hundred and seven to one, but we're due and I

1343
01:04:58,640 --> 01:04:59,160
Speaker 1: love this thing.

1344
01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:01,600
Speaker 2: Ye kick it out, I got. I got the shortest

1345
01:05:01,680 --> 01:05:04,760
Speaker 2: leg of this parlay. Claremont for the worst team and

1346
01:05:04,800 --> 01:05:05,480
Speaker 2: the worst.

1347
01:05:07,760 --> 01:05:10,240
Speaker 4: Claremont Foot plus three thirty on the road against Dodd

1348
01:05:10,320 --> 01:05:13,960
Speaker 4: the Reems post World Cup. These two had literally the

1349
01:05:14,000 --> 01:05:16,720
Speaker 4: exact same expected goal differential, and that was a Reams

1350
01:05:16,800 --> 01:05:20,080
Speaker 4: team with Florian Balagoon. They've lost him, which means you

1351
01:05:20,120 --> 01:05:23,840
Speaker 4: have to downgrade them significantly offensively. Claremont Foot did the

1352
01:05:23,840 --> 01:05:26,800
Speaker 4: double over Reams last season. One won both meetings one

1353
01:05:26,840 --> 01:05:29,360
Speaker 4: and early on in the season, and then one later

1354
01:05:29,360 --> 01:05:32,480
Speaker 4: where they also won the expected goals battle on the

1355
01:05:32,560 --> 01:05:36,000
Speaker 4: road against Reems. So I think for two teams that

1356
01:05:36,120 --> 01:05:39,720
Speaker 4: are essentially even, plus three thirty is an insane price.

1357
01:05:40,840 --> 01:05:44,640
Speaker 1: Going with Everton plus four fifty. Uh on the road

1358
01:05:45,040 --> 01:05:47,920
Speaker 1: at Acid Villa. That's I mean, I don't even want

1359
01:05:47,960 --> 01:05:49,680
Speaker 1: to talk about it any further than that. It's it.

1360
01:05:49,680 --> 01:05:52,840
Speaker 1: They're gonna They're gonna lose two to one or not

1361
01:05:52,920 --> 01:05:56,960
Speaker 1: probably one Niling and post one point eight x G.

1362
01:05:57,920 --> 01:05:59,600
Speaker 1: But you just got to be encouraged with what you saw,

1363
01:06:00,120 --> 01:06:01,600
Speaker 1: or try to be encouraged with what you said of

1364
01:06:01,640 --> 01:06:05,000
Speaker 1: Everton in match week one. Meanwhile, Phil is going to

1365
01:06:05,000 --> 01:06:08,520
Speaker 1: be missing Ming's Emmy, Buni is probably up for the season.

1366
01:06:08,720 --> 01:06:10,840
Speaker 1: This looks like a team on kind of on solid footing.

1367
01:06:11,240 --> 01:06:13,720
Speaker 1: A lot of us expected Villa to be pretty stable.

1368
01:06:14,720 --> 01:06:16,120
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's going to be the case

1369
01:06:16,120 --> 01:06:17,560
Speaker 1: here in those first few weeks. This is a team

1370
01:06:17,560 --> 01:06:19,800
Speaker 1: I want to play against. Unfortunately, I'm going to have

1371
01:06:19,800 --> 01:06:21,720
Speaker 1: to use Everden to do it. So plus four to

1372
01:06:21,760 --> 01:06:25,160
Speaker 1: fifty on the Toffees. Come on you, Blues, Anthony. Usually

1373
01:06:25,200 --> 01:06:28,280
Speaker 1: I'm the one giving out fourteen to one losers, but

1374
01:06:28,360 --> 01:06:29,480
Speaker 1: this time it's you.

1375
01:06:29,840 --> 01:06:30,080
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1376
01:06:30,120 --> 01:06:32,960
Speaker 3: Bournemouth twelve to one against Liverpool. We talked about this

1377
01:06:33,000 --> 01:06:35,440
Speaker 3: in the section when we discussed Ariola and how he

1378
01:06:35,480 --> 01:06:40,040
Speaker 3: impacts the way teams play and Bournemouth pressing more, taking

1379
01:06:40,040 --> 01:06:44,520
Speaker 3: away possession time, forcing turnovers, attacking and transition, all the

1380
01:06:44,520 --> 01:06:46,919
Speaker 3: things that I think can really rattle this Liverpool team

1381
01:06:46,920 --> 01:06:49,440
Speaker 3: that still does not have a defensive midfielder. Look, the

1382
01:06:49,480 --> 01:06:52,160
Speaker 3: Reds have so much attacking firepower they could just run

1383
01:06:52,200 --> 01:06:55,080
Speaker 3: away and hide and win this game easily. But on

1384
01:06:55,120 --> 01:06:57,600
Speaker 3: the off chance that the Cherries are as dangerous as

1385
01:06:57,640 --> 01:07:00,240
Speaker 3: they showed they can be in the past and played

1386
01:07:00,320 --> 01:07:03,160
Speaker 3: decently well against west Ham, they are alive to pull

1387
01:07:03,200 --> 01:07:05,240
Speaker 3: off an upset here. They're good on set pieces too,

1388
01:07:05,280 --> 01:07:07,280
Speaker 3: which has been an issue for Liverpool and was again

1389
01:07:07,280 --> 01:07:09,680
Speaker 3: an issue last week. So give me the Cherries twelve

1390
01:07:09,760 --> 01:07:12,240
Speaker 3: to one on the road at Anfield.

1391
01:07:12,640 --> 01:07:15,360
Speaker 4: This kicks off the parlay too, so if this hits,

1392
01:07:15,720 --> 01:07:18,280
Speaker 4: we go to Sunday Michael with you and I believe

1393
01:07:18,320 --> 01:07:19,160
Speaker 4: around the same.

1394
01:07:18,960 --> 01:07:23,200
Speaker 1: Time Born with Claremont foot and Everton three hundred and

1395
01:07:23,240 --> 01:07:26,360
Speaker 1: six to one or they'reabouts. So have some fun with

1396
01:07:26,440 --> 01:07:31,040
Speaker 1: us this weekend, all right? I do our favorite bets

1397
01:07:31,040 --> 01:07:34,000
Speaker 1: for match week two in the Premier League BJ, What

1398
01:07:34,080 --> 01:07:34,480
Speaker 1: do you got?

1399
01:07:34,560 --> 01:07:34,760
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1400
01:07:34,760 --> 01:07:36,640
Speaker 4: I like aston Villa Everton over two and a half

1401
01:07:36,680 --> 01:07:39,640
Speaker 4: goals at minus one ten. Astonville is gonna without Tyrone

1402
01:07:39,680 --> 01:07:41,280
Speaker 4: Mings for an extended period of time. He is their

1403
01:07:41,280 --> 01:07:44,440
Speaker 4: best penalty box defender, their best aerial ball winner. Now

1404
01:07:44,440 --> 01:07:46,240
Speaker 4: they're going to have to play Powo Torres and play

1405
01:07:46,240 --> 01:07:48,560
Speaker 4: a more build up style, which is what Uniamori demands

1406
01:07:48,560 --> 01:07:52,120
Speaker 4: from his team. But Everton is a fantastic high pressing team.

1407
01:07:52,160 --> 01:07:55,960
Speaker 4: Forced fourteen high turnovers against Fulham in match week one,

1408
01:07:56,000 --> 01:07:59,200
Speaker 4: and that's something Sean Ditsche really emphasizes with this team

1409
01:07:59,240 --> 01:08:01,240
Speaker 4: since he took over. Since in the in the middle of

1410
01:08:01,320 --> 01:08:04,560
Speaker 4: February last year, his matches at Everton are averaging well

1411
01:08:04,560 --> 01:08:08,080
Speaker 4: over three expected goals. They created almost three expected goals

1412
01:08:08,080 --> 01:08:10,120
Speaker 4: against Fulham, couldn't put one in the back of the net.

1413
01:08:10,440 --> 01:08:13,600
Speaker 4: But they continue this type of offensive prowess against Nason Villa,

1414
01:08:13,680 --> 01:08:16,800
Speaker 4: the defense that was very, very vulnerable. In transition to

1415
01:08:16,840 --> 01:08:19,439
Speaker 4: match week one against Newcastle, we could get a very

1416
01:08:19,479 --> 01:08:22,080
Speaker 4: high event style match like we did the last time

1417
01:08:22,080 --> 01:08:24,400
Speaker 4: these two teams played last season.

1418
01:08:24,479 --> 01:08:25,799
Speaker 2: So like over two half goals.

1419
01:08:25,680 --> 01:08:30,439
Speaker 1: Of minus one ten Tottenham plus one eighty seven hosting

1420
01:08:30,760 --> 01:08:35,040
Speaker 1: Manchester United. I'm not totally sure why United is a

1421
01:08:35,400 --> 01:08:38,360
Speaker 1: road favorite. We had question marks about this team coming

1422
01:08:38,360 --> 01:08:40,400
Speaker 1: into the season, thought they're a little overvalued in the

1423
01:08:40,439 --> 01:08:42,320
Speaker 1: betting market. I think everybody thought that this was just

1424
01:08:42,360 --> 01:08:45,080
Speaker 1: going to be a linear progression for Manchester United. They

1425
01:08:45,080 --> 01:08:49,360
Speaker 1: finished third last year, win an EFL Cup trophy, qualify

1426
01:08:49,439 --> 01:08:52,720
Speaker 1: for Champions League, all that, and it doesn't look like

1427
01:08:52,760 --> 01:08:55,240
Speaker 1: it's going to be that simple for this team. They

1428
01:08:55,280 --> 01:08:57,280
Speaker 1: still have some serious defensive flaws. That's not a good

1429
01:08:57,280 --> 01:09:01,519
Speaker 1: thing against a Tottenham Hotspur team that looks live going

1430
01:09:01,560 --> 01:09:05,679
Speaker 1: forward under new manager and Pustic Coglu. Spurs can give

1431
01:09:05,800 --> 01:09:09,600
Speaker 1: this United team a whole host of issues going the

1432
01:09:09,640 --> 01:09:11,840
Speaker 1: other way, So this line just doesn't make sense to me.

1433
01:09:12,080 --> 01:09:16,640
Speaker 1: I'll take Spurs as a home dog. Ange gets his

1434
01:09:16,720 --> 01:09:20,720
Speaker 1: first Premier League win, Anthony, that makes you happy, take us.

1435
01:09:20,720 --> 01:09:22,680
Speaker 3: Almost as happy as a Brighton win would make me

1436
01:09:22,920 --> 01:09:25,280
Speaker 3: because they were my best bet last week minus one

1437
01:09:25,360 --> 01:09:27,400
Speaker 3: and a half and for the second straight week I

1438
01:09:27,439 --> 01:09:30,000
Speaker 3: will be backing the Brighton Seagulls, this time on the

1439
01:09:30,000 --> 01:09:32,640
Speaker 3: money line minus one oh five against the Wolves.

1440
01:09:32,920 --> 01:09:33,160
Speaker 1: Look.

1441
01:09:33,360 --> 01:09:36,160
Speaker 3: I appreciated Wolves's performance at man United. It was a

1442
01:09:36,160 --> 01:09:40,800
Speaker 3: good showing. They look lively in transition, but Brighton has

1443
01:09:40,880 --> 01:09:44,559
Speaker 3: a ton more talent. They had the most box entries,

1444
01:09:44,600 --> 01:09:48,960
Speaker 3: most penalty area touches, completely ran over Luton toown. Looked

1445
01:09:48,960 --> 01:09:51,479
Speaker 3: like they did not miss a beat in that match.

1446
01:09:51,680 --> 01:09:54,280
Speaker 3: And I know that Wolves are clearly better than Luton Town,

1447
01:09:54,360 --> 01:09:57,080
Speaker 3: but Wolves have a ton of turnover issues they're going

1448
01:09:57,120 --> 01:09:58,760
Speaker 3: to continue to have all year because they are not

1449
01:09:58,800 --> 01:10:01,000
Speaker 3: playing how they used to plan their look Taggi. And

1450
01:10:01,040 --> 01:10:03,360
Speaker 3: there are take backs and drawbacks to playing how they're

1451
01:10:03,360 --> 01:10:05,599
Speaker 3: playing now. And one of the big ones is they're

1452
01:10:05,600 --> 01:10:07,479
Speaker 3: going to give away the ball high and Brighton will

1453
01:10:07,479 --> 01:10:10,120
Speaker 3: turn that into goals and win this match. So give

1454
01:10:10,120 --> 01:10:10,360
Speaker 3: me the.

1455
01:10:10,280 --> 01:10:12,840
Speaker 1: Goals, all right? That does it for this episode. Match

1456
01:10:12,840 --> 01:10:15,639
Speaker 1: Week two preview in the Premier League of Wonder Goal.

1457
01:10:16,400 --> 01:10:18,680
Speaker 1: Thank you to our sponsors Bet three sixty five and

1458
01:10:18,720 --> 01:10:22,160
Speaker 1: cal Tara Lab. Thank you to our audio and video

1459
01:10:22,200 --> 01:10:25,400
Speaker 1: producers David Payne and Hunting Jackson. Thank you to you,

1460
01:10:25,640 --> 01:10:28,200
Speaker 1: dear listener. Good luck this week. Remember to put in

1461
01:10:28,240 --> 01:10:30,679
Speaker 1: that parlay three hundred and six to one Clairemont Foot,

1462
01:10:30,920 --> 01:10:35,439
Speaker 1: Everton and Bourne myth. Maybe all of us can celebrate

1463
01:10:35,560 --> 01:10:38,040
Speaker 1: together next week for b J. Cunningham and Anthony Dunda.

1464
01:10:38,120 --> 01:10:42,360
Speaker 1: Michael leebof We will see you again next week.

1465
01:10:47,439 --> 01:10:51,960
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or

1466
01:10:52,000 --> 01:10:54,760
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is

1467
01:10:54,800 --> 01:10:57,960
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler