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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us prout

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Speaker 1: read enough? No, We're running a game so smoothe so sweet,

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Speaker 1: slipid sixteing, just glorious extecution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 1: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that? Shop with mind bog buddy, And.

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Speaker 1: That's why you see yours beautiful tiers. Look at his

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Speaker 1: movements the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying. The love is.

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Speaker 2: Left to of the wide eyed drill bibeus. How old earth.

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Speaker 1: Pick that happens? Hello everybody, and welcome to Wonder Goal,

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Speaker 1: the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. I'm your

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Speaker 1: host today BJ Cunningham, alongside my co host and friend.

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Speaker 1: If you need to bundo, we have reached the quarterfinals

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Speaker 1: of the Women's World Cup. The United States is going home,

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Speaker 1: but the tournament still goes on. Before we get started,

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Speaker 1: Wonder Goal is presented by Bet three sixty five, the

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Speaker 1: world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with the promo code

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Speaker 1: action to get BET three six fives exclusive sign up offer.

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Speaker 1: Bet one dollar in any game, get two hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: in bonus bets must be twenty one years or older.

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Speaker 1: Offers available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa

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Speaker 1: and the United States. If you have a game on problem,

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Speaker 1: please call her text one eight hundred Gambler. Like I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: the United States has gone home in the round of sixteen.

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Speaker 1: We've got to give ourselves a little sad pat on

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Speaker 1: the back for being being right about the United States

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Speaker 1: and the rest of the world is caught up to

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Speaker 1: them in terms of talent. But it leaves a very,

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Speaker 1: very interest interesting tournament going forward. And here are your

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Speaker 1: future odds to win the Women's World Cup. England is

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Speaker 1: your tournament favorite at plus two to seventy five, Spain

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Speaker 1: sitting at plus three fifty, Japan five to one, France

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Speaker 1: five to one, Australia, one of the tournament hosts, is

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Speaker 1: eight to one, Sweden is nine to one, Netherlands is

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Speaker 1: twelve to one, and Columbia is your longest shot at

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Speaker 1: twenty eight to one. But first we will start in

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Speaker 1: the first match, which is Spain against the Netherlands. Spain

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Speaker 1: is your overwhelming favorite here they are sitting at minus

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Speaker 1: one ten on the three way line. Netherlands is sitting

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Speaker 1: at plus three fifty with the draw at plus to

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Speaker 1: twenty five, Spain is minus two twenty five to advance.

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Speaker 1: Netherlands is sitting at plus one sixty two to advance Anthony.

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Speaker 1: Spain was very impressive against Switzerland outside of one of

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Speaker 1: the more shocking own goals I've ever seen in my life.

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Speaker 1: But do you think that Spain now has kind of

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Speaker 1: overcome the bad match against Japan and really should be

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Speaker 1: a bigger favorite here to move on to the quarterfinals.

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Speaker 2: As our colleague Michael Lileeboff likes to say, styles make fights,

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Speaker 2: and Japan was probably the team that was perfect engineered

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Speaker 2: to destroy Spain encounter attacking modes and scored four goals

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Speaker 2: on five shots on target, had just twenty three percent

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Speaker 2: of the ball. The Dutch are really not that team.

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Speaker 2: Swiss was not that team, and the Dutch are not

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Speaker 2: that team. The Dutch want to have possession of the ball.

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Speaker 2: They want to be a technically good side. They want

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Speaker 2: to have defensive possession, work their way through and create

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Speaker 2: high turnovers to keep the ball. But I think Spain

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Speaker 2: is just a better possession side. I think that creates

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Speaker 2: a problem for the Dutch going up against this Spanish group,

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Speaker 2: which has better, much better attacking players who produce a

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Speaker 2: lot more in terms of chances and ball progression, and

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Speaker 2: the Dutch don't have one of their better midfielders. And

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Speaker 2: Vanda Donck, who probably is most famously known for getting

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Speaker 2: into a fight with Lindsay Horan in the USA Netherlands match,

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Speaker 2: or at least a little dust up, and they're good friends,

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Speaker 2: so it's quite interesting, but her absence, you know, the

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Speaker 2: Dutch getting four goals from Joe Roard, who has had

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Speaker 2: a great World Cup, but is not someone who's putting

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Speaker 2: up consistent shot production to the where you'd expect her

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Speaker 2: to keep that up. They really haven't gotten a lot

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Speaker 2: of striker production otherwise, and so I think that there's

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Speaker 2: a real golf in talent here that maybe the market

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Speaker 2: isn't quite picking up on now. Spain has moved from

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Speaker 2: you know, even money to minus one twenty here, so

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Speaker 2: the market has moved solidly in the favor of the Spanish.

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Speaker 2: I still like Spain here. I'm laying the minus one

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Speaker 2: fifteen one twenty. I think that they're the clearly better team.

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Speaker 2: The Dutch looked pretty vulnerable against South Africa.

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Speaker 1: South Africa had a lot of.

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Speaker 2: Good transition moments. The Dutch were immediately vulnerable after losing possession,

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Speaker 2: and I think that's going to be a problem. You know,

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Speaker 2: the United States wasn't able to take advantage of it

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Speaker 2: because they've been so inefficient in their transitionary moments, but

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Speaker 2: Spain is not that. I think Spain's going to have

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Speaker 2: a good time scoring you know, two goals minimum here,

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Speaker 2: So I like the Spanish minus one twenty. That's my

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Speaker 2: probably my favorite bet of the quarterfile me too.

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Speaker 1: When I was coming into this, you know, before I

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Speaker 1: started to dig into the stats, I was like, man

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Speaker 1: Netherlands thirteen to one to win the World Cup. That's

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Speaker 1: seems kind of long. But then when I started to

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Speaker 1: dig into it a little more, you know, you obviously

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Speaker 1: hit the nail on the head that the Netherlands needs

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Speaker 1: to be a team that needs to build out of

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Speaker 1: the back, like they need to have possession, Like, how

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Speaker 1: are they gonna fare when they're only controlling thirty five

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Speaker 1: to forty percent possessional We already saw that against the

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Speaker 1: United States. They were incredibly inefficient after scoring that opening goal. Now,

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Speaker 1: who knows if they were just trying to defend and

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Speaker 1: then hold off the United States and get that draw.

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Speaker 1: But they lead the Women's World Cup with eighty five

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Speaker 1: high turnovers and fifteen shots off of those high turnovers.

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Speaker 1: That's a lot of that obviously came against Vietnam and

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Speaker 1: against South Africa. That's a really dangerous game to play

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Speaker 1: against the best build up team in the world. So

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Speaker 1: Spain is going to be able to control the ball,

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Speaker 1: They're going to be able to build up, and if

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Speaker 1: the Netherlands wants to press them high, that's gonna leave

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Speaker 1: a lot of space in behind for Spain, who has

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Speaker 1: been very good at creating chances. Obviously, you know the

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Speaker 1: match against Japan they were incredibly inefficient, but against Switzerland

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Speaker 1: and Costa Rica and Zambia they have put up a

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Speaker 1: combined over fourteen I believe, over thirteen expected goals. So

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Speaker 1: again I agree with you, this price is really short

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Speaker 1: here on in Spain. If you look at opted, they

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Speaker 1: have Spain at about a sixty five percent chance to advance,

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Speaker 1: which kind of lines up with the minus two twenty five,

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Speaker 1: So it's it's a pretty significant discount just to take

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Speaker 1: them here to win in ninety minutes, as essentially like

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Speaker 1: a twelve or fourteen percent discount, So I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: I like Spain for the ninety minute line. You can

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Speaker 1: find a minus one on one out there as well, so.

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Speaker 2: They have a lot more attacking depth to do, and

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Speaker 2: I think that matters as you get deeper into a tournament,

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Speaker 2: they can they can rotate fresh bodies in there, and

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Speaker 2: as the game starts to wear down and teams get

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Speaker 2: tired and whatnot, then you can see, you know, Spain

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Speaker 2: differentiate itself from the its peers in this group. For

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Speaker 2: my money, they should probably be the favorite for sure.

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Speaker 2: I understand why they're not because England has the easiest

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Speaker 2: quarter final matchup right, But on a neutral if I

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Speaker 2: were honestly power rating these teams right now based on

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Speaker 2: what we've seen in the four games plus our priors, like,

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Speaker 2: I think Spain is playing at the highest level for

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Speaker 2: sure overall.

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Speaker 1: For sure.

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Speaker 2: I know they lost by four goals and it's crazy

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Speaker 2: to say that, but.

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Speaker 1: Like we said, like like nether One's is not a

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Speaker 1: transitional team, like it's not. They don't play the style

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Speaker 1: that Japan plays, Like Japan was not good at just

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Speaker 1: necessarily pressing them high, but they sat deep and then

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Speaker 1: they were good and there.

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Speaker 2: Within the men's team, just Spain in the in the

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Speaker 2: men's World Cup. It was the same.

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Speaker 1: It was exactly the same thing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that has not got effects for like what Japan

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Speaker 2: looks like against a team or they're the favorite. We

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Speaker 2: saw Japan play really well against Norway at times, but

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Speaker 2: also look vulnerable at times. And I think that this

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Speaker 2: Japan team who ran like have run like gods in

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Speaker 2: their first four games, could they get picked off? I

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Speaker 2: think it's it's worthy conversation if they play again. I mean,

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Speaker 2: that would be a really fascinating semifinals. Got Japan again, Well.

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Speaker 1: Let's have that conversation, Anthony, because our next matchup it's

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Speaker 1: Japan versus Sweden. Japan is now a favorite at plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty five, Sweden sitting at plus to thirty with

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Speaker 1: the draw at plus two twenty five, Japan is minus

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Speaker 1: one sixty three to advance in Sweden's plus one twenty

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Speaker 1: OWO advanced these odds as always coming from our friends

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Speaker 1: at bet three six five. You mentioned that Japan has

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Speaker 1: run like us this tournament, Like that's just how it is.

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Speaker 1: You know, if you look at the match against we

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Speaker 1: talked about this match against Spain, Yes, they won four nothing,

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Speaker 1: but they scored four goals on five shots in target

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Speaker 1: and less than one expected goal. Then they go do

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Speaker 1: the exact same thing against Norway. They go down early,

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Speaker 1: but again they go and score three goals off of

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Speaker 1: just one expected So you look at the match against

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Speaker 1: Spain and against Norway like they've just been incredibly inefficient,

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Speaker 1: incredibly efficient with their attacking opportunities and haven't created a

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Speaker 1: big scoring chance in any of those matches. But it's

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Speaker 1: you know, so for my money, I do like a

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Speaker 1: bed on Sweden. Even for the ninety minutes line. I

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Speaker 1: think plus two thirty is a little a little steep

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Speaker 1: for how good Sweden is. Now. Sweden really wasn't that

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Speaker 1: impressive against the United States and the United States was

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Speaker 1: the better team, but again Sweden really limited the United

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Speaker 1: States chances. United States had twenty two shots and only

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Speaker 1: created one point three expected goals, didn't create, you know,

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Speaker 1: a shot with an ext crating over point three. Like

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Speaker 1: that's that's impressive stuff. So, you know, Sweden, I'm interested

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Speaker 1: to see who has more of the ball this my

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Speaker 1: guest will be Sweden, and how good they will be

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Speaker 1: with their build up play and if they get caught

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Speaker 1: with Japan pressing them and creating goals off of those

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Speaker 1: you know, high turnovers. But it's just too to steep

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Speaker 1: of a price. But then I come back to it

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Speaker 1: and I say, Okay, well, Sweden just played one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty minutes in a very emotional, grueling match against

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Speaker 1: the United States. So if I had to pick anything,

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Speaker 1: I would pick Sweden plus two thirty for the ninety

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Speaker 1: minute line, cause I think that's a decent price on

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Speaker 1: a team that, you know, coming into this World Cup

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Speaker 1: was rated higher than Japan. And now you know you

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Speaker 1: mentioned it off air, but like the United States, was

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Speaker 1: the exact same price here against Sweden that Japan is.

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Speaker 1: So are we really going to sit here and say, yes,

200
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Speaker 1: Japan's been incredibly impressive, but coming into the tournament, would

201
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Speaker 1: we really have senned at Japan it's just as good

202
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Speaker 1: as the United States. I'm not so sure. So I'll

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Speaker 1: probably end up taking the price in Sweden a plus

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Speaker 1: two thirty. What do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I largely agree. I think that you know, Sweden

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Speaker 2: came into this tournament with much lower odds to win it.

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Speaker 2: Sweden was you know, eighteen to one. Japan was nearly

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Speaker 2: double that thirty three to one, and now Japan is

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Speaker 2: as big of a favorite as the United States was.

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Speaker 2: Who was the tournament favorite to beat the Sweden team? Now,

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Speaker 2: there's a couple of things that concerned me. The first thing,

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Speaker 2: there's been a lot of talk about how much better

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Speaker 2: the United States was that having possession against Sweden and

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Speaker 2: why that made them better. A lot of that was Sweden,

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Speaker 2: like Sweden was not playing the same tactics that the

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Speaker 2: Dutch and the Portuguese were. We're like, we need to

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Speaker 2: have the ball, defensive possession, defensive possion, defensive possession, do

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Speaker 2: nothing with it. Sweden was like, go ahead, USA, have

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Speaker 2: the ball. We want to be the direct transition, counter

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Speaker 2: attacking team. And that's kind of what Japan wants to

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Speaker 2: be when they're at their best too. So it's a

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Speaker 2: it's a big who will have the ball question in

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Speaker 2: this matchup, and I think that's what creates a really

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Speaker 2: interesting dynamic for this matchup because if Japan is the

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Speaker 2: team that is kind of putting their foot forward has

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Speaker 2: more of the ball, I think that kind of works

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Speaker 2: for Sweden. I don't think Japan's going to create a

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Speaker 2: ton of big chances. I think Sweden will be happy

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Speaker 2: to sit back. But the problem is Sweden has not

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Speaker 2: been good and build up. Most of their good attacking

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Speaker 2: production has come on set pieces and free kicks and

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Speaker 2: dead ball situations, and they have not been that good

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Speaker 2: a bill up. So if they're going to have problems

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Speaker 2: getting out of the press and Japan's gonna get turnovers high,

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Speaker 2: Japan's gonna probably be better than the United States at

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Speaker 2: turning those into good shots and finishing them. So that's

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Speaker 2: the real red flag for Sweden. But again, like true talent,

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Speaker 2: I can't understand how Sweden's a big dog here. So

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Speaker 2: at plus one thirty, I'm going to take the Swedes

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Speaker 2: to advance again deja vu all over again. You know,

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Speaker 2: hopefully they don't need penalties this time. But I think

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Speaker 2: this is a little bit closer to I think Japan's

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Speaker 2: probably rightly a favorite, yeah form, but plus one thirty

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Speaker 2: is a price for the Swedes to advance here.

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Speaker 1: And I hate taking a team coming off one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty minutes, I really do in these international tournaments.

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Speaker 1: But I mean we saw at the Men's World Cup too,

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Speaker 1: Costa Rica. I mean, he's Costa Rica they're just embedded

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Speaker 1: in my brain. Croatia did it time and time again

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Speaker 1: where they were just playing one hundred and twenty minutes

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Speaker 1: over and over again. But yeah, we'll see what happens.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, the price is a little crazy here on sayten,

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Speaker 1: let's move on to the next match. One of your hosts,

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Speaker 1: Australia taking on our French team France. Sitting at plus

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Speaker 1: one ten on the ninety minute line, Australia's plus two

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Speaker 1: seventy with the draw at plus two ten, France is

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Speaker 1: minus one seventy five to advance. With the shraw, Australia

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Speaker 1: is sitting up plus one twenty five. I really have

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Speaker 1: nothing on this match. I think France would be a

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Speaker 1: pretty decent favorite. You know, the what's the conversation around

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Speaker 1: Sam Kerr has been interesting. Australia has been really tight

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Speaker 1: lipped about that. It seems like she's not one hundred

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Speaker 1: percent and I don't think she's gonna be one hundred

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Speaker 1: percent for this match. Is obviously a loss for Australia,

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Speaker 1: but they outside of the mentions Canada, have they really

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Speaker 1: been that impressive at this World Cup? No? And you

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Speaker 1: know France, you know they've had some moments where they've

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Speaker 1: looked a little shaky, but they had a really dominant

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Speaker 1: performance against Morocco. So I'm passing on this. Do you

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Speaker 1: have anything for Australian France.

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Speaker 2: No, nothing for me either, Just going to ride our

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Speaker 2: French tickets, that semi final ticket, that outright ticket, hoping

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Speaker 2: to get both, especially the semi one to the window.

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Speaker 2: I think they're rightly favored. I think if they got

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Speaker 2: to a flat like minus one ten money line, which

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Speaker 2: the market is moving toward, France France open plus one

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Speaker 2: twenty five plus one thirty. Now they're down to plus

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Speaker 2: one ten at most shops. If they were to get

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Speaker 2: to a minus one ten, I'd probably come back on

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Speaker 2: Australia plus a half. I don't know that there's a

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Speaker 2: huge gap, especially on the road, so that that is

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Speaker 2: one question. But I loved France and the way they

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Speaker 2: played against Morocco. I know it's Morocco, but they were

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Speaker 2: so assured in possession. The defensive questions that the kind

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Speaker 2: of emerged because they gave up three to Panama could

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Speaker 2: see a penalty, a couple big chances and a wonder

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Speaker 2: goal free kick. They were kind of quashed with Wendy

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Speaker 2: Arnard back in the lineup. She didn't play in the

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Speaker 2: last match. Eugenie Lesamaier did not play against Panama. The

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Speaker 2: Lessamaire Diani partnership is so perfect as a combination because

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Speaker 2: of Lissa Mayer's ability on the ball and the ability

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Speaker 2: to come short fine space, get on the ball and

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Speaker 2: then they're both good pressers. Like they get so much

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Speaker 2: out of that combination that it's very hard to beat

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Speaker 2: this team with how good they are at center back

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Speaker 2: and strikers. So I think France is the right favorite here.

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Speaker 2: Kerr plays like how fit is she because she didn't

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Speaker 2: play in the group stage. They kept saying she was available,

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Speaker 2: but then they played her for eleven minutes off the

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Speaker 2: bench once it was already two zero against Denmark, and

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Speaker 2: you mentioned it. I mean, the performance against Denmark was fine,

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Speaker 2: but it was not special. The shots were they got

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Speaker 2: out shot XG was you know, one two point six.

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Speaker 2: It was a pretty mediocre showing against the Denmark team

305
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Speaker 2: that I don't really have a strong opinion on them.

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Speaker 2: But that was okay, not great. And the ball progression,

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Speaker 2: the underlying stuff like it wasn't all that great in

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Speaker 2: the group stage either. So the Matilda's are really hard

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Speaker 2: to project, and I said that before the Round of

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Speaker 2: sixteen matchup. I still feel that way. If they, like

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Speaker 2: I said, if they got too plus a half, i'd

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Speaker 2: bet them. But right now I think this is the

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Speaker 2: easier pass on the board and hopefully our French continue

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Speaker 2: to roll into a potential semi final with England. You

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Speaker 2: talked about this. We did a show with Anni Witty

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Speaker 2: where we broke down all four of these games and

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Speaker 2: we got her analysis and we also discussed the US

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Speaker 2: women's national team what went wrong there? You can find

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Speaker 2: those on our YouTube Action Network YouTube. I thought there

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Speaker 2: was some good analysis there, especially from her on kind

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Speaker 2: of the US women's national team future. But you talked

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Speaker 2: about how Australia won one nil against France right before

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Speaker 2: the World Cup, but the underlying numbers were still France France.

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Speaker 1: Yep, so I and Kerr played in that match too, right.

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Speaker 2: So I kind of think France is the right favorite here.

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Speaker 2: But again, it's gonna be a crowd, a wild crowd

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Speaker 2: for this one, sellout their biggest stadium.

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Speaker 1: So it is interesting. You know that match you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: you know Australia won one nothing XG was one point

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Speaker 1: two too point nine favorite of France. They helped fifty

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Speaker 1: eight percent possession. I'll shot them ten to five. So

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Speaker 1: like it was, you know, it was an even match,

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Speaker 1: but like France was, you know, better team, and Australia

334
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Speaker 1: just converted one of their chances. So yeah, I agree,

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Speaker 1: one of the easiest pass on the board. You know,

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Speaker 1: we obviously gave out France to make seventy's a plus

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Speaker 1: one seventy, so we just kind of you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to hedge that ticket. I think that's still

339
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Speaker 1: you know, I mean, there's not really a great hedge

340
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Speaker 1: price here on Australia to do that. So I'm just

341
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Speaker 1: gonna ride that ticket. But if you're somebody does have

342
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Speaker 1: that ticket, you know you can hedge, you know, depending

343
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Speaker 1: on you know, you even try to middle it. You

344
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Speaker 1: can try to middle it as well. And this is

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Speaker 1: a conversation. You know, maybe we'll have.

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Speaker 2: An Australia plus a half if it gets like I said,

347
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Speaker 2: if it gets down there, they get to extra time

348
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Speaker 2: and then France advances. That would be the dream, right

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Speaker 2: it happen. I mean, I but again you have to

350
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Speaker 2: have a reason. You know, we talk about hedging sometimes,

351
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Speaker 2: like you have to have a reason to think that

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Speaker 2: things have changed. And if you've watched France through the

353
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Speaker 2: first four matches, I don't know how you come out

354
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Speaker 2: with them being worse than maybe your pre tournament prior.

355
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Speaker 2: Like you could say that they underperformed early against Jamaica

356
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Speaker 2: and like, but the Pandema game was weird, like they

357
00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:48,640
Speaker 2: really were never in doubt there, so like they've kind

358
00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:51,120
Speaker 2: of just taken their business under control and had had

359
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,400
Speaker 2: a solid showing since since that really awful first half.

360
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Speaker 2: So you know, you're kind of picking knits if you

361
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Speaker 2: don't think France has met your expectations, And there's no

362
00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,720
Speaker 2: way Australia met your expectations pre tournament thus far. I

363
00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:04,840
Speaker 2: know they got here, but like they haven't been nearly

364
00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:07,200
Speaker 2: as good as people thought, So I think that you'd

365
00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:09,960
Speaker 2: have to go with the idea that, like you're hedging

366
00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:13,760
Speaker 2: into a ticket that you weren't planning to hedge pre tournament,

367
00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:17,639
Speaker 2: you head if you got there. So I'm not usually

368
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Speaker 2: team Hedge now, like not either for some reason why

369
00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:23,600
Speaker 2: Lenard was out or if Lsa Aridionni was out, then yeah,

370
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Speaker 2: that's a different conversation. But the way that they've played

371
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Speaker 2: has been impressive.

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Speaker 1: I mean the hedging conversation, you know it, you know

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Speaker 1: this situation specifically, like you mentioned like France is is

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Speaker 1: clearly the favorite to advance here, so you know, essentially

375
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Speaker 1: ride that plus one seventy ticket. You know, Hedging for

376
00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:40,560
Speaker 1: me is always just like how honestly, how much money

377
00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:42,280
Speaker 1: do you have on that ticket? Like if it's if

378
00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:44,479
Speaker 1: it's a substantial amount of money, then like and if

379
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:46,960
Speaker 1: you don't feel comfortable like just riding it out, then yeah,

380
00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 1: maybe take a piece and hedge off of it. But

381
00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,800
Speaker 1: again it's only plus one seventy, So like for me,

382
00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:53,480
Speaker 1: who I just bet you know, one unit on it.

383
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:55,679
Speaker 1: Like I'm just writing that out and just happy to

384
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Speaker 1: be in this position where I have a good where

385
00:17:57,840 --> 00:17:59,480
Speaker 1: I have a plus one seventy on a team that's

386
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Speaker 1: minus one seventy five to advance. So you know, if

387
00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,919
Speaker 1: you have questions about hedging, you know my usual like

388
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,040
Speaker 1: you look at the matchup and see what it is,

389
00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:09,800
Speaker 1: and then because you know, if you have tickets, for example,

390
00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:11,240
Speaker 1: like I have a ticket. I know we both have

391
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:13,760
Speaker 1: a ticket on Sweden to go to the semifinals, and

392
00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:15,919
Speaker 1: there's really no I'm not gonna hedge with Japan, like

393
00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:18,119
Speaker 1: at minus one sixty or whatever it is, I'm just

394
00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,600
Speaker 1: gonna ride that ticket out even if I don't feel

395
00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:24,399
Speaker 1: that confident in it. So but again, it really just

396
00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:26,320
Speaker 1: comes down to, like, you know, how much money do

397
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:28,120
Speaker 1: you have on it? Like would it be a significan

398
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:30,440
Speaker 1: amount of money to you? Like if it's AD's case

399
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:32,560
Speaker 1: and you don't feel comfortable, then yeah, go ahead and hedge,

400
00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:34,119
Speaker 1: Like we're not. Nobody's gonna sit here and judge you

401
00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 1: whatever you do. So it just really comes down to

402
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:40,000
Speaker 1: your risk tolerance of what you see in the given matchup.

403
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,840
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to our final match, England

404
00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:47,840
Speaker 1: taking on Columbia. England is minus one eighty eight on

405
00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:49,800
Speaker 1: the three way money line. Columbia is six to one

406
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:53,040
Speaker 1: the draw sitting at plus two sixty. England is minus

407
00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 1: four fifty to advanced. Columbia is sitting at three to one.

408
00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:57,919
Speaker 1: I'm not vetting it over here. I'm done with these

409
00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:00,920
Speaker 1: Columbia overs, like I just keep losing on that not

410
00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 1: doing it again.

411
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:05,440
Speaker 2: By to warn you, I know you did diabolical game.

412
00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:07,679
Speaker 2: That was no I did not watch it live, but

413
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:09,600
Speaker 2: that was I didn't through all the box score. It

414
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,639
Speaker 2: was like, yeah, I did the three I did the

415
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,240
Speaker 2: three AM, or I did the five am for USA Sweden.

416
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,719
Speaker 2: I did the three am for Nigeria England, and I

417
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:20,399
Speaker 2: was like, you know what it was again, it was

418
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 2: like three am. I was like I can at four am.

419
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 2: I was like, I am not doing Colombia Jamaica at

420
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Speaker 2: four in the morning. I'm going to wake up at seven.

421
00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:29,720
Speaker 2: I'm going to watch my French roll and we'll see

422
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,440
Speaker 2: what happened in the other match, and looking at through

423
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:33,320
Speaker 2: the box score and like reading through how it played

424
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,119
Speaker 2: out and reading some recaps and stuff, like nothing in

425
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 2: that game played out differently than when I thought from Columbia.

426
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 2: They Colombia has one of the four worst shot qualities

427
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:45,000
Speaker 2: per xtually per shot in the CURTAM and that's with

428
00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:47,919
Speaker 2: having Myra and Caceto. Like, they have not been a

429
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:51,159
Speaker 2: good attack I know, they scored some goals some fortune

430
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,760
Speaker 2: against South Korea and a couple of bangers against Germany,

431
00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:55,720
Speaker 2: but like they have not been a good attacking team.

432
00:19:56,359 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 2: They have been okay defensively. England does not have Lauren Jane,

433
00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 2: she suspended for the red card. I'm down on England too.

434
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:05,879
Speaker 2: I mean I don't think they should be the favorite

435
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,720
Speaker 2: to win this. I don't think that they're playing well.

436
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:10,760
Speaker 2: I don't think that they have the depth the team

437
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 2: that won the Euros last year. Half of them are injured.

438
00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 2: They weren't even the best team at the Euros. They

439
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 2: were at home for that. Now they're not. Like there's

440
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,119
Speaker 2: all kinds of things that make me down on England.

441
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,639
Speaker 2: But Nigeria was plus one and a half. Do we

442
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:24,640
Speaker 2: really think Columbia is that much better than England or Nigeria.

443
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,920
Speaker 1: No, but you also have to bake in the fact

444
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,679
Speaker 1: that England just played one hundred and twenty minutes, ran penalties.

445
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:33,720
Speaker 1: So that's where I kind of land and I did

446
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:37,159
Speaker 1: bet Columbia plus one. Here. It's tough, right because I

447
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:38,679
Speaker 1: look at, you know, looking through like you mentioned the

448
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,480
Speaker 1: match against Jamaica and even the previous matches before that,

449
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:45,639
Speaker 1: against Germany and against Morocco, like Columbia hasn't created over

450
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 1: one expected goal, Like they have not turned it Like

451
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 1: they've really not turned out to be the team that

452
00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 1: I thought that I was going to be this aggressive,

453
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 1: you know, high event style team. It just hasn't really

454
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 1: bared it out. And the thing about Columbia though. That

455
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,960
Speaker 1: gives me hope and everything is that they are a

456
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 1: direct transitional type team. They're not a team that needs

457
00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:05,840
Speaker 1: to have the ball, Like even if you look through

458
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 1: a lot of their data, they have just seven ten

459
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 1: plus pass sequences, Like they're like, they're not a team

460
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:16,119
Speaker 1: that needs to control possession. And where is the impressive

461
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:19,639
Speaker 1: result for England here? Like they beat Haiti one nothing,

462
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 1: they really weren't like that much dominant or that much

463
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:24,880
Speaker 1: better than them. They beat Denmark one nothing. Again, really

464
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 1: wasn't that dominant. They had kind of the pressure off

465
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,400
Speaker 1: of them against China and they put six past them

466
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,119
Speaker 1: when they really just needed to draw. So it's a

467
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 1: lot easier to play a match when it's like, oh,

468
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 1: all we need is to draw, so they'll just come

469
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,679
Speaker 1: out and they looked great, but like you mentioned, they

470
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,400
Speaker 1: really weren't the better team against Nigeria, Like they lost

471
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:42,159
Speaker 1: the expected goals at all. They failed to create over

472
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 1: one expected goal over one hundred and twenty minutes. Now now, no,

473
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 1: Lauren James, like, should they really be laying a goal

474
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 1: against Columbia here? I'm I don't think so, So I've

475
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:57,199
Speaker 1: taken Columbia plus one you know, to advance is you know,

476
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,400
Speaker 1: three to one still short for me. I'd need something

477
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:00,879
Speaker 1: a little bit high or something like a four or

478
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 1: five to one to advance. You know, Opta has them

479
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 1: at twenty five percent to advance, so to one. Yeah,

480
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:10,879
Speaker 1: so it's potentially three to one. So yeah, you need

481
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,640
Speaker 1: you need a better price, you need a four plus

482
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 1: four fifty. But I don't think I have a hard

483
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 1: time believing that the market is going to go towards

484
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:21,479
Speaker 1: England here as we get closer to the match. So

485
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 1: Columbia plus one for me for the first ninety minutes,

486
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 1: I do believe that they can. You know, I really

487
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 1: don't think you can should be laying a goal against

488
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 1: Colombia here, especially given what we've seen. So that's where

489
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:32,159
Speaker 1: I've landed on this. Do you have a bet for

490
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,160
Speaker 1: this match? Not yet?

491
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 2: No, I mean it's Columbia or nothing. I'm not laying

492
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 2: the goal with England given how poor they've been. You

493
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:40,880
Speaker 2: mentioned it. They had one great game, they've they've been

494
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 2: mediocre in three of their four games.

495
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:42,640
Speaker 1: Yep.

496
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 2: They got the penalty against Haiti, they won x ye

497
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,880
Speaker 2: against Denmark, less than one against Nigeria. I got a

498
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 2: bar down out situation on a banger from Nigeria. In

499
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,360
Speaker 2: the first half, they could have been down. They were

500
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,160
Speaker 2: not the better team in the first eighty five minutes.

501
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,159
Speaker 2: Then the red card happens. They were hanging on in

502
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 2: actually time. So yeah, it just hasn't been right for

503
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 2: me with this team, and I continue to be unimpressed.

504
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 2: So they may win title looking very unimpressive. Maybe they'll

505
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: win yeah one nil here on like a header and

506
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 2: then beat France on pens and make the final and

507
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,439
Speaker 2: they laugh at us. But I would love love to

508
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 2: get a dog price on Spain in a final against

509
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 2: England or a dog price on France against England in

510
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:28,879
Speaker 2: the Semis. And I think we're going to get it.

511
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 2: I think at least the first, at least the Spain one.

512
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 1: I mean, given even given like the odds right now,

513
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 1: I mean England's obviously you're all one favorite at plus

514
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,119
Speaker 1: two fifty and France's five to one, so that tells

515
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 1: you if everything bears out, you know how it should.

516
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 1: And even if England's not impressive, it only wins like one,

517
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 1: nothing like. I still think they're gonna be like a

518
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 1: plus one twenty five plus one twenty favorite over France,

519
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:50,160
Speaker 1: which is just going to be crazy, so I can't

520
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 1: wait for that. And again, yeah, like you mentioned, you know,

521
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:57,119
Speaker 1: I think the match against Spain will probably be around

522
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 1: to pick them, which I would still take Spain in

523
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 1: that just because Yeah, of.

524
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 2: Course, some of the odds are baking in the fact

525
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 2: that England gets the better of the draws, like they

526
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 2: have the easiest matchup in the quarters. But even after that,

527
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:12,160
Speaker 2: I still think they'd be favored against Spain in France

528
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 2: on a neutral and I don't agree, so I agree. Well,

529
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 2: see if we can. You know, part of me is

530
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 2: reading Freeland to advance here just so we can get

531
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 2: the better spot to bet in the Semis, but also

532
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 2: for our France ticket, Like I'd much rather play Columbia,

533
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 2: So go Columbia. Hopefully they pull it off and we

534
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 2: can have a French party for sure.

535
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, we'll do it for the Women's World

536
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 1: Cup quarterfinals. Thank you all for tuning in. Some programming

537
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 1: notes here. If you're interested in our conversation to Anthony

538
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: mentioned with Antheon Winnie An Witty, go over to our

539
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:45,679
Speaker 1: YouTube page, where you can were we broke down, what

540
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 1: happened we went wrong for the United States and some

541
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 1: of our other quarter final picks. If you're a fan

542
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,239
Speaker 1: of the men's club competition, well, Wonder Goal has been

543
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 1: podcasting NonStop for the past week. We've done our Premier

544
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 1: League Futures episode last week that was an hour and

545
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 1: a half. We did our I Want to a Draft,

546
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 1: our Good Friend a Launchapiro from the FMLFBL pod. Me

547
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 1: and Anthony took a deep dive into the other European leagues,

548
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 1: the Bundesliga, Siria A, La Liga and Legue one and Thursday.

549
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 1: As you're listening to this, on Thursday, our match Week

550
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 1: one preview will be out for the Premier League where

551
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,439
Speaker 1: we give out all our favorite bets, our underdog parlay

552
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,120
Speaker 1: and take a little trip over to Spain and France

553
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 1: as well. So thank you all for listening. Thank you

554
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 1: to our sponsors for Bet, Thank you to our sponsors

555
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 1: at Bet three six five for Anthony Buondo, I'm BJ Cunningham,

556
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:33,920
Speaker 1: Thank you all for listening, and good luck with you.

557
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 2: Wagers Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

558
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 2: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

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