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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros m LB. This is

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It is me Joey P joe

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Speaker 1: P Zapia, and today we're gonna continue on our Ultimate

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Speaker 1: Guide series and pitching is such a big position we

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Speaker 1: have to chop it up into a couple halfs. So

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Speaker 1: today we're gonna talk about the top fifty guys, maybe

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Speaker 1: top forty five, with one of the best in the business.

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Speaker 1: Ino Sarah's from the Athletic is joining us, and the

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Speaker 1: Welsh is here too. The boys are gonna debate some

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Speaker 1: starting pitchers here in the top forty five, some guys

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Speaker 1: that they like, some guys that they hate, and some

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Speaker 1: guys that we have to have some bigger discussions about

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Speaker 1: before we get to all that. Make sure you subscribe

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Speaker 1: to the channel, subscribe to the podcast feed. We love

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Speaker 1: hearing from you too. Drop your picks here for your

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Speaker 1: favorite pittures this year in twenty twenty six. Eno, I

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Speaker 1: know it's a busy time of year for you, but

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Speaker 1: hope springs eternal here. I know early going, the pitchers

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Speaker 1: are always ahead of the hitters. We always say that, right,

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Speaker 1: But any standouts for you and some of the early

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Speaker 1: coverage as you're starting to peel back the layers of

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Speaker 1: that first weekend of spring games.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know how much we can learn from

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Speaker 2: the first week or so of games. I'm just happy

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Speaker 2: when somebody gets a shot. You know, it means something

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Speaker 2: when JR. Ritchie in Braves Camp gets two innings because

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Speaker 2: they're hurting right now. They just lost two guys to

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Speaker 2: elbow surgery. And just in terms of like who gets

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Speaker 2: the who gets the innings, sometimes early on it's who's

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Speaker 2: getting a shot, who's being stretched out. That's almost as

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Speaker 2: important as anything else, because the debt tells you what

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Speaker 2: the organization thinks, which you know they have more information

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Speaker 2: than us, even.

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Speaker 3: On the prospect side too. Just to throw out Homer

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Speaker 3: Diamondback here, but like Cole Drake and Mitch Bratt with

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Speaker 3: the Diamondbacks both got early looks and they've got absolute

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Speaker 3: bullpen worries. They might be moving, you know, an Eduardo

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Speaker 3: might have to come off of there. So just to

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Speaker 3: kind of like tail on to that, it's hard to

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Speaker 3: read into anything, but when you see these opportunities, they

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Speaker 3: could lead to like really good bullpen stuff, or it

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Speaker 3: could end up being spot stars or if we have injuries,

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Speaker 3: you know, we keep having these shocking injuries to go out.

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Speaker 3: Cole Drake has looked good, Mitch Bratt kind of command demon.

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Speaker 3: You also had a guy on the padres Tristan McKenzie,

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Speaker 3: throwing harder than he had ever thrown before. So yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 3: have to pay attention to But yeah, I agreed, like

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Speaker 3: what can we fully pull out of a lot of

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Speaker 3: these pictures right now? On top of like WBC is

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Speaker 3: going to take guys. It's a really weird time. But

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Speaker 3: thankfully we don't have at least I don't think knock

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Speaker 3: on what Everyone's be pissed now that I'm going to

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Speaker 3: say this, but we have as many of the pitching

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Speaker 3: pitching woes I guess as we've had with the hitting

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Speaker 3: woes as Pablo goes down and others and hopefully know others.

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Speaker 1: Please. Yeah, it's been a rough start already for some

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Speaker 1: of the pitchers, and we barely got to games before

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Speaker 1: we lost a couple guys for possibly the year. Yay,

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Speaker 1: good times. That's all right, there's plenty more guys in draft.

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Speaker 1: We're going to talk about all of them before we do.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you drop your comments below and when you

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel. You could win the Fantasy Baseball

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Speaker 1: Championship Belt from Trophy Smack, the number one destination for

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Speaker 1: epic fantasy sports hardware. And this is your moment. It's bold,

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Speaker 1: it's six pounds of golden glory and it can be yours.

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Speaker 1: How you win it again, drop your comments, subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the channel. That's it. That's all you do, and don't

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Speaker 1: forget to ring the belt till it goes dings so

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Speaker 1: you never miss a show here on the program, and

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Speaker 1: we can let you know if you're the winner of

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Speaker 1: the Trophy Smack Fantasy Baseball Championship Belt giveaway. I love

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Speaker 1: this one. You wear it around your house, you can

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Speaker 1: wear it out to open school night, you can wear

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Speaker 1: it to you know, the kids, little league gamis. Look,

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Speaker 1: the more you wear it, the more you get the

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Speaker 1: use out of it. I'd say, nothing like.

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Speaker 3: Going spending parent night with your championship belt and trying

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Speaker 3: to explain to you, what is your husband a wrestler? No, no, no, no,

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Speaker 3: he manages fantasy teams.

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Speaker 1: That's right, it's a whole jobs. John c Riley taught

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Speaker 1: us that in Step Brothers. It's a whole other side job.

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Speaker 1: All right. So, obviously, on the rankings of fantasy pros,

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Speaker 1: the elephant in the room here is the show Tany

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Speaker 1: ranking obviously has one entity. He is the number one

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Speaker 1: overall guy. Some leagues still break him up. You know,

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Speaker 1: where do you have show Hey in your pitcher ranks?

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Speaker 1: Before we kind of get into the top fifteen.

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Speaker 2: Here, I'm around twenty where I have other pictures that

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Speaker 2: I really like that I don't know how many innings

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna get out of him. Showho Tani and Blake

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Speaker 2: Snell are right next to each other. I have one

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Speaker 2: hundred and twenty innings from Shoho Tani with a threeh

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Speaker 2: eight projection in era, So you know, that's a lot

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Speaker 2: of goodness. You know, Hunter Green last year, with one

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Speaker 2: hundred and seven innings of great ratios, was still a

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Speaker 2: top twenty five pitcher. I just think that it keeps

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Speaker 2: him from being kind of a top five, top ten pitcher,

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Speaker 2: because those guys you want one hundred and fifty, one

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Speaker 2: hundred and sixty hundred and seventy innings from them. One

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Speaker 2: hundred and twenty would be a little bit short for that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. The cover boy of The Fantasy Black Book twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six on Amazon show Aotani, but as a pitcher only, well,

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Speaker 1: sh where's he in your rankings?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got him at nineteen. I've got him actually, right,

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Speaker 3: I think I have George Kirby one spot ahead of him.

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Speaker 3: Kirby's a guy, some inconsistencies, but it's the innings, you know,

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Speaker 3: And it's like six man rotation is facing us with

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Speaker 3: the Dodgers, the Dodgers or the Lakers of what the

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Speaker 3: last five years where it's like they're really playing for

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Speaker 3: the playoffs, are going to be super comfortable with pushing

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Speaker 3: guys and you know, skip starts and whatnot. But you know,

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Speaker 3: clearly the rank even though I know we're looking at

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Speaker 3: SP just so everybody knows, as Joe said, when you

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Speaker 3: look under SP rankings, Otani is at the top because

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Speaker 3: that is the value, the overall value of them. But

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Speaker 3: as a pitcher alone, we're talking to Yahoo here, then

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Speaker 3: that would be like, you know, SP nineteen twenty. I

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Speaker 3: mean I think you know just said twenty. So somewhere

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Speaker 3: in that general vicinity is like a good spot for

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Speaker 3: him as a starting pitcher alone.

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Speaker 1: All right, and we are going to go through these

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Speaker 1: top fifteen here you can find them on the rankings

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Speaker 1: the expert consensus over on fantasypros dot com. Just click

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Speaker 1: on the MLB page look for the rankings there and

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Speaker 1: you'll find it right away. Obviously, Turk scoobl at the top.

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Speaker 1: Otani is number two, but again that's because of the

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Speaker 1: weird consensus thing that happens with him, because he's such

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Speaker 1: an incredible all round player. Paul Skeens is three, Garrit

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Speaker 1: Crochet is four, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who just pitches every single

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Speaker 1: day apparently after the World Series, which is just still incredible.

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Speaker 1: I can't get over it, you know, I still can't

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Speaker 1: get over they came out and pitched in Game seven

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Speaker 1: that way. Chris R. Sanchez is six, one of Welsh's

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Speaker 1: favorite guys with the last couple of years. They have

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Speaker 1: Hunter Brown at seven, Chris Sale at eight, who's season

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Speaker 1: got derailed, but before the injury he was having cy

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Speaker 1: Young caliber performance. Then Logan Gilbert at nine, Brian Wu

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Speaker 1: at ten. Those are the top ten. I want to

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Speaker 1: talk about the teammates for a second here, Gilbert and Wu.

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Speaker 1: Gilbert is over Wu here. Do you agree, you know

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Speaker 1: with that ranking? Do you have him reversed? Or farther

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Speaker 1: apart from each other.

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Speaker 2: I'm right next to each other, just about there where

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Speaker 2: they are going. The only difference for me from between

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Speaker 2: them and the guys that go above them is I

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Speaker 2: see a fair amount of injury risk for both those guys.

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Speaker 2: Logan Gilbert had a forearm strain that is a precursor

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Speaker 2: to Tommy John and Brian Wu had Tommy John already

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Speaker 2: and has had a sort of various ailments to his

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Speaker 2: hamstrings and back and stuff like that. He had a

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Speaker 2: peck issue that cut his season short at the last year.

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Speaker 2: So I really liked them. And you know, Gilbert when

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Speaker 2: he's on looks great. I don't think we have too

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Speaker 2: much worry. I know the last time we saw Gilbert,

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Speaker 2: he didn't look at his best. He looked a little

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Speaker 2: gassed at the end of that season. But it be healthy.

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Speaker 1: He's great.

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Speaker 2: I just see a little bit of health risk there.

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Speaker 2: That's why I think it's they go right with Sale.

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Speaker 2: I put them ahead of Sale because I I kind

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Speaker 2: of they're younger. I kind of expect maybe a few

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Speaker 2: more innings, but they're all kind of in this group

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Speaker 2: of you know, I'm jumping ahead. But Jacob de Gram

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Speaker 2: comes next. You know, it's like there's this group here

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Speaker 2: of really excellent pictures with ace like upside and injury downside.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I mean that sounds like picture in a nutshell.

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Speaker 1: Brian Wu last year one hundred and ninety eight strikeouts,

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Speaker 1: the thirty six walks, two eighty four ERA A point

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Speaker 1: nine to two whip. Logan Gilbert, on the other hand,

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Speaker 1: here one hundred and seventy three strikeouts. He had one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty one innings, so less innings than Wu

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Speaker 1: last season three five zero ERA A one point zero

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Speaker 1: three whip. Between those two guys are on the board, Welsh,

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Speaker 1: where would you go between the two of them?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Gilbert here. Love both of

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Speaker 3: these guys. I actually, like, you know, was saying, like

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Speaker 3: that tier where it's like the sales and the de

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Speaker 3: grams are there, there is some injury risk. I kind

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Speaker 3: of like that territory because then I don't have to

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Speaker 3: have the really high investment on sps. You can get

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Speaker 3: these guys in like the third, fourth, maybe even someone

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Speaker 3: slipping into the fifth and like a twelve team. So

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Speaker 3: these are probably a little bit more of my targets.

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Speaker 3: But between these two guys. Brian wu made the adjustments

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Speaker 3: that you wanted. We dreamed on him the year prior.

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Speaker 3: We're like, oh, he doesn't walk anybody. If he only

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Speaker 3: could strike out more guys, And he did that and

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Speaker 3: he had some significant innings with the injury at the

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Speaker 3: end of the season. But I love Logan Gilbert. Logan

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Speaker 3: Gilbert actually pitched today as we're recording this first spring

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Speaker 3: outing looked good. Velo was up. He was dominating guys

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Speaker 3: with his splitter, and that's what you want to see.

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Speaker 3: And last year he had no over thirty percent K percentage.

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Speaker 3: He's still not walking guys. And both of these guys

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Speaker 3: had close to expected era's right in the same general range.

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Speaker 3: So this is a really popular guy. I remember Derek

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Speaker 3: Carty one of his favorite bets last year was Logan

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Speaker 3: Gilbert to lead the league in strikeouts because he would

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Speaker 3: get massive innings. He's got really great stuff, the strikeout

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Speaker 3: abilities going up, and then he was just hampered by

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Speaker 3: some injuries. For all intentsive purposes, he looks like he's

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Speaker 3: in a great spot this year. I can't worry too

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Speaker 3: much about the I don't think he's in the injury

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Speaker 3: prone territory and anything like that with Logan Gilbert and

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Speaker 3: if you're gonna invest in any high end pitching, you're

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Speaker 3: dealing with this anyways. I like Gilbert over Brian Wu.

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Speaker 1: Right now.

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Speaker 3: I think it is generally close. But I do think

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Speaker 3: there's like a big clump of guys that I'm I'm

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Speaker 3: probably going to be choosing from in the Wu's to

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Speaker 3: de Grams in all of them all.

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Speaker 1: Right, before we get out of the top ten, I

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Speaker 1: know Hunter Brown is a target of EMO. So let's

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Speaker 1: talk about Hunter Brown. Twenty seven years old. Last year,

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Speaker 1: two hundred and six strikeouts, fifty seven walks, a two

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Speaker 1: four to three ERA, and a one zero three whip

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Speaker 1: over thirty one starts for the Astros. You know, obviously,

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Speaker 1: Hunter Brown, you know, had some struggles earlier in his career,

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Speaker 1: but recent seasons has really blossomed, I think into the

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Speaker 1: picture that the Houston Astros really envisioned him to become.

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Speaker 1: So what's next year for Hunter Brown? Why is he

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Speaker 1: a target of yours in twenty twenty six?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really interesting to think about what's next because

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Speaker 2: he's a little bit like Brian Wu. And then he

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Speaker 2: does all of this with a four seam and a

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Speaker 2: two seam. There's a lot of fastballs, and that's the

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Speaker 2: big adjustment that he made in the past. He out

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Speaker 2: of the two seam and he kind of came into

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Speaker 2: focus and became the brand we know now. People are

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Speaker 2: making a lot of the fact that in the second

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Speaker 2: half his strikeout minus walk rate went down, But I'm

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Speaker 2: not as concerned because I'm focused on what he's going

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Speaker 2: to do next. As you mentioned, So when I look

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Speaker 2: at the fact that his era was the same in

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Speaker 2: the first half as the second half, what I see

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Speaker 2: is he did not have the impetus I think himself

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Speaker 2: to make a change. So I'm thinking this is a

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Speaker 2: little bit of a psychological aspect to it. But I'm like,

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Speaker 2: if you have if you still have like a two

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Speaker 2: four era, and your coach comes to you and says, ah, well,

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Speaker 2: your strikeout minus walk rate is down, you say stuff

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Speaker 2: at it in the locker nerd you know, like, I'm not,

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Speaker 2: I'm just kidding, but like you you kind of say, like,

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Speaker 2: I don't know how worried I should be about this,

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Speaker 2: you know, like, I'm still still getting the results. So

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Speaker 2: what I think is the next time he does run

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Speaker 2: into a situation where the results aren't there for him.

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Speaker 2: He has weapons he hasn't gone to as much anymore,

249
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Speaker 2: which is the breaking balls. The breaking balls rate really well.

250
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Speaker 2: He buy stuff models. They have been real weapons for

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Speaker 2: him in the past, and he doesn't throw them that much.

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Speaker 2: So I think if he runs into something where hitters

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Speaker 2: find some sort of adjustment against his basketball heavy approach,

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Speaker 2: he has another wrinkle. He has another way to be

255
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Speaker 2: So I love that. Plus in terms of injury risk,

256
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Speaker 2: not a whiff so far. So I just feel like

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Speaker 2: this is a horse. He'll get you a ton of

258
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Speaker 2: innings and there's a little bit more left if it needs.

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Speaker 2: There needs to be.

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Speaker 1: Welsh, you're so tall. I imagine being a nerd just

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Speaker 1: out and about was easy for you because you're way

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Speaker 1: too big to be stuffed than a locker.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, they can definitely hurt me all they want,

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Speaker 3: but I'm not moving. No one's getting in any locker.

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Speaker 3: I look like the guy that's put him in the lockers.

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Speaker 3: But I'm like, let's talk about you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah you are, but like there's no locker that can

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Speaker 1: hold the Welsh. I can tell you that right now.

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Speaker 1: He's way too big of a human when we took

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Speaker 1: those pics. Every time we take picture together, they're like,

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Speaker 1: is Joe that shorten as well? Sh that tall? And

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Speaker 1: I'm like, yes, yes.

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Speaker 3: The amount of times, the amount of times I'm told like, hey,

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Speaker 3: bend down a little bit, so I'm like.

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Speaker 1: Oh, it's all of us too. And everybody this company

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Speaker 1: is so damn tall too, Like you know, I'm at

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Speaker 1: best average height, but like everybody's.

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Speaker 3: A channel's pretty tall though, too.

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Speaker 1: I don't think you know, you know, and I eve

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Speaker 1: a hung out in person.

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Speaker 3: A leader of nerds is definitely not putting eno in

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Speaker 3: any locker.

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Speaker 1: That's right.

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Speaker 2: Six you gotta be. I'm six two, you gotta be.

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Speaker 2: You gotta be above six foot to hang out with pitchers, man,

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Speaker 2: you know. Yeah, that's fair.

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Speaker 1: That's fair, unless you're a catcher the way I was too,

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Speaker 1: which case, you wear all that gear and you say

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Speaker 1: shut up and just do what I tell you. That's right,

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Speaker 1: That's what I all. Right. So at number eleven you

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Speaker 1: mentioned Jacob deGrom. Then at twelve is logan web. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna pause there for a moment because logan web, the

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Speaker 1: model of consistency, well, you know, I think it gets

294
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Speaker 1: underappreciated every single year going back to twenty twenty two,

295
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Speaker 1: one hundred nine two innings, two hundred and sixteen innings,

296
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Speaker 1: two hundred four innings, two hundred and seven inings. He

297
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Speaker 1: just takes the ball every fifth day. He is consistent.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna give an era somewhere in the midtal o threes.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna be whipped somewhere around one point to something.

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Speaker 1: And in terms of strikeouts, actually made a jump last

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Speaker 1: year from one seventy two and two hundred and four

302
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Speaker 1: to two hundred and twenty four and two hundred and

303
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Speaker 1: seven innings. So Logan Web another guy too. Like the

304
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Speaker 1: strikeout to walk ratio is always solid. It's a good

305
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Speaker 1: ballpark factor. I feel like annually he gets overlooked and

306
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Speaker 1: I don't know why, and I don't know when people

307
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Speaker 1: are going to wise up and realize what a great investment,

308
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Speaker 1: especially in those auction formats howerycap formats. He's such a

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Speaker 1: good investment because he costs less than the other guys

310
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Speaker 1: typically in this range, yet he consistently gives you productivity

311
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Speaker 1: somewhere in that exact same range, but at a fract

312
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Speaker 1: no fractionally costs, but it' certainly a discount of the

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Speaker 1: very top guys.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and by the way, I'm like one of the

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Speaker 3: highest one Hunter Brown, so I'm know rankings at least,

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Speaker 3: so I completely agree with the Hunter Brown one. The

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Speaker 3: problem is is like it kind of comes back to

318
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Speaker 3: my philosophy this year of how I want to draft,

319
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Speaker 3: Like I'm just not super interested in the high investment.

320
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Speaker 3: So you start to look at these tiers and buckets

321
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Speaker 3: and it's like Scooball and schemes probably belong in their

322
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Speaker 3: own and then there's like this like sub one that's

323
00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:50,360
Speaker 3: only Crochet, and then if you want to make an

324
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Speaker 3: argument that it's like Yamamoto Sanchez Brown. But then there's

325
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Speaker 3: this big bucket. So those are guys cost a lot,

326
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Speaker 3: and I want to be drafting hitters in there. So

327
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Speaker 3: then there's this giant bucket of these pictures from the

328
00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,720
Speaker 3: Chris Sales down and that's where I stop at Logan

329
00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:04,960
Speaker 3: Web and I go, this is the guy that I want.

330
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Speaker 3: I'm not really taking any big risks because I'm not

331
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Speaker 3: having early investment in pitching, so I also kind of

332
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Speaker 3: don't want to take these big crazy shots on upside,

333
00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:16,719
Speaker 3: like a guy in the fourth or fifth round that yes,

334
00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:18,680
Speaker 3: he's got the second round upside, but that has like

335
00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,120
Speaker 3: a lot of volatility. I want steady Eddies. And that's

336
00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:23,320
Speaker 3: where comes back to Logan Web. Like Logan Web is

337
00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:26,720
Speaker 3: exactly that does he eat innings? Sure does three straight

338
00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:30,120
Speaker 3: years of two hundred plus innings, great whip numbers under

339
00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:33,320
Speaker 3: three and a half era he consistently does. This past year,

340
00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,600
Speaker 3: we also saw the case take a giant leap almost

341
00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:40,240
Speaker 3: six percentile points from twenty to twenty six PERCENTK percentage

342
00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:43,160
Speaker 3: because what he decided to do was up the sweeper.

343
00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:46,480
Speaker 3: He went sinker sweeper change up and that was just

344
00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:49,120
Speaker 3: lowering the change up usage. It just made everything more effective.

345
00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:52,240
Speaker 3: And it's in a super hitter friendly environment. And like

346
00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:55,240
Speaker 3: I love everything that he does. He's got some great

347
00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:58,520
Speaker 3: offensive support them bringing in Rafael Devers over there. I

348
00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:01,480
Speaker 3: love the ballpark and I think the cost is really great.

349
00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:03,920
Speaker 3: You can make arguments that, like Cole Reagan's upside is

350
00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:06,480
Speaker 3: so much better if there's some injury stuff Hunter Green,

351
00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:09,520
Speaker 3: there's some like Logan Webb is the steady Eddy.

352
00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:10,880
Speaker 2: So it's like that this is a guy.

353
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Speaker 3: I'm gonna own a ton of and that's really more

354
00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:14,040
Speaker 3: of what I'm going to target because I think we

355
00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,400
Speaker 3: can look at some guys like Reagans and Hunter Green

356
00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:18,040
Speaker 3: and we can go, my god, the stuff. They could

357
00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:20,920
Speaker 3: be top five, But like, Logan Web is gonna go

358
00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:23,520
Speaker 3: after majority of the time all of these guys. And

359
00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,400
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have him on so many teams this year

360
00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,160
Speaker 3: because I think he's a great anchor to my rotation

361
00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:31,040
Speaker 3: and if and I personally want to take my risky

362
00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:33,040
Speaker 3: shots a little bit later because I think there are

363
00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:37,080
Speaker 3: some really really great starting pitchers that have some risk

364
00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,320
Speaker 3: attached to them with incredible upside, and Logan Web is

365
00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:41,880
Speaker 3: just gonna fit all my team Molts.

366
00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:43,840
Speaker 1: There's a sweet spot for me with those guys. Was

367
00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:46,080
Speaker 1: coming up sooner than later. But this first tear Hunter

368
00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:48,560
Speaker 1: Green at thirteen, Cole Reagan's at fourteen, the Max Reid

369
00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,360
Speaker 1: rounds us out at fifteen. You know, Cole Reagan's for you.

370
00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:53,600
Speaker 1: I kind of a weird season last year. Are you

371
00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:55,520
Speaker 1: in or out on him on his current ADP?

372
00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:58,920
Speaker 2: You know, it's really interesting because the only complaint I

373
00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,480
Speaker 2: have about Logan Web is in some formats you have

374
00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:04,160
Speaker 2: a innings cap, and if you have an innings cap

375
00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:08,240
Speaker 2: and Logan Webs, strikeout ry goes back down. Then, you know,

376
00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:10,840
Speaker 2: having a guy like Cole Reagan's who may only throw

377
00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,400
Speaker 2: one hundred and forty innings but get one hundred and

378
00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:15,600
Speaker 2: eighty k's and one hundred and forty or whatever it is,

379
00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:18,560
Speaker 2: you know, there's different ways to get your strikeouts. And

380
00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:21,120
Speaker 2: you know, when you don't have an innings cap, then

381
00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:23,440
Speaker 2: you want Logan web because you can just pile up

382
00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:25,840
Speaker 2: those innings and you get to you know, two hundred

383
00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:28,200
Speaker 2: k's with two hundred and twenty innings or whatever or

384
00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:31,480
Speaker 2: whatever it's going to be for him, whereas Cole Reagan's

385
00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:33,240
Speaker 2: in it. In a situation where you have an innings cap,

386
00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:38,400
Speaker 2: you may prefer him because you know, like that I've.

387
00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:39,600
Speaker 3: Played had a conversation.

388
00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:41,160
Speaker 2: I'm the kind of guys just like tell me the

389
00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:42,000
Speaker 2: rules and I'll win.

390
00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:46,280
Speaker 1: But you know, look at this guy, spoken like a

391
00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:47,120
Speaker 1: six to two man.

392
00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:54,880
Speaker 2: But no, I get that, I get the reasoning. But

393
00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:57,600
Speaker 2: you know what I don't like, actually are k nine leagues,

394
00:16:57,600 --> 00:16:59,840
Speaker 2: which is a way that is another way of kind

395
00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:03,280
Speaker 2: of doing this, because King, if you do use strikeouts

396
00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:06,560
Speaker 2: for nine as a category, you really turf starting pitchers.

397
00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,840
Speaker 2: It's really hard. There's only like thirty pitchers starting pitchers

398
00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,560
Speaker 2: that are really worth it, you know, in that in

399
00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:15,760
Speaker 2: those leagues, and then you become you basically push everyone

400
00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:18,600
Speaker 2: to kind of a reliever strategy because relievers strikeout rates

401
00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:21,480
Speaker 2: are so much higher. So, you know, I'm okay with

402
00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:23,520
Speaker 2: innings caps because I get I get what you're trying

403
00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:25,520
Speaker 2: to do, but I don't like K nine. And there's

404
00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:29,040
Speaker 2: some similarity there with Colt Reagan's in particular, the stuff

405
00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:31,240
Speaker 2: was back when he when he came back from injury,

406
00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,000
Speaker 2: which is something I'd like. So when you're buying somebody

407
00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:36,520
Speaker 2: who has injury risk and was largely injured last year,

408
00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:39,440
Speaker 2: I much rather he pitched some at the end of

409
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 2: the season because it just proves to you that they

410
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:43,879
Speaker 2: came all the way back and there's not going to

411
00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:46,920
Speaker 2: be like an update that's like, oh well it didn't

412
00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:50,359
Speaker 2: take or oh well type of surgery. Right like, you know,

413
00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:52,359
Speaker 2: he came back and he showed us that the stuff

414
00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,760
Speaker 2: was there, the stuff that we all love. And I

415
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:57,720
Speaker 2: you know, I don't have a ton of innings written

416
00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:01,240
Speaker 2: down for him. I've got cold Reagan's a little bit

417
00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:05,560
Speaker 2: lower than this. I've got him at seventeen. I have

418
00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,160
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty two innings written down for him.

419
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:10,560
Speaker 2: But you know, with a three three eer and a

420
00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:13,399
Speaker 2: twenty nine percent strikeout rate. So if you can stomach

421
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:15,160
Speaker 2: the risk, he belongs to this group.

422
00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:18,159
Speaker 3: And only one thing to add is a guy like

423
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,080
Speaker 3: Logan Web, which really interesting. If you don't want to

424
00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,399
Speaker 3: have an investment in the top ten pitchers, you can

425
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,439
Speaker 3: pair Logan Web and Logan Rag and Cole Reagans. I

426
00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:26,320
Speaker 3: think that's like a really interesting pairing if you want

427
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:28,440
Speaker 3: to do so. I do find myself doing this sometimes

428
00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:31,560
Speaker 3: where I might go three rounds maybe four hitting, and

429
00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:33,560
Speaker 3: then I want to start tapping some pitching. Maybe do

430
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,400
Speaker 3: three rounds of hitting. You could go Reagan's Web back

431
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:38,080
Speaker 3: to back and you kind of mitigate a little bit

432
00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:39,520
Speaker 3: of the risk if you end up wanting to do that.

433
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:40,200
Speaker 3: Did you do that?

434
00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:43,679
Speaker 2: Well? Listeners of rates and viarrels will know what I

435
00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:46,600
Speaker 2: call this. I call this the yolo yo yo.

436
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:49,200
Speaker 3: Yes, absolutely, I love it.

437
00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:49,359
Speaker 1: Yo.

438
00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 2: You go yolo with one of your picks. The Cole

439
00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:54,960
Speaker 2: Reagan's is the yolo and you only live once. And

440
00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:58,159
Speaker 2: then the other side is the yo yo where you

441
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 2: kind of pair him with somebody that you know has

442
00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:04,040
Speaker 2: a high floor and should give you innings. So I

443
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:07,560
Speaker 2: like doing that because it gives you multiple ways to succeed.

444
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:09,760
Speaker 2: And if you lean all the way into injury risk

445
00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:11,399
Speaker 2: and you just take five guys in a row that

446
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:13,880
Speaker 2: are injury risk and four of them go down for surgery,

447
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:14,760
Speaker 2: then you're in trouble.

448
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,119
Speaker 1: All right. We have rounded out the top fifteen guys.

449
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 1: And of course, if you want to practice how to

450
00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,120
Speaker 1: get these guys on your rosters, whether it's the hope

451
00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,960
Speaker 1: I get it right, the yolo yo yo yoo yo,

452
00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:29,960
Speaker 1: want to practice that out, you gotta work on the title.

453
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:31,040
Speaker 3: I couldn't say it's the first time.

454
00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:33,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you need something simpler from my simple

455
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:36,680
Speaker 1: brain here. But the mock draft simulator that's simple enough

456
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,040
Speaker 1: and effective. You should use it test out your pitching

457
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,879
Speaker 1: strategies right now. Go to fantasyfros dot com slash draft Wizard.

458
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,240
Speaker 1: You can run twenty mock drafts in an hour, back

459
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:48,000
Speaker 1: and forth. Use the robots to make your pick the

460
00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:49,679
Speaker 1: other picks around you. You can set it to your

461
00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:52,760
Speaker 1: league specific settings, all the roster configurations, all the bells

462
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:56,040
Speaker 1: and whistles, everything's there. You can undo draft picks, continue on.

463
00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:58,120
Speaker 1: You could restart the draft as many times as you want,

464
00:19:58,160 --> 00:19:59,439
Speaker 1: and of course at the end you get all the

465
00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:03,680
Speaker 1: back end analytics, the expert consensus, the things you could

466
00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:05,680
Speaker 1: have done better than you did. Very well with all

467
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 1: that stuff is there for you. Download the Draft Wizard

468
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:09,919
Speaker 1: app for MLB wherever you get your apps, or go

469
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 1: to Fantasypros dot com slash Draft Wizard today. That way

470
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:15,199
Speaker 1: you can practice your mock drafts. And while you're at it,

471
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:16,399
Speaker 1: you might as well figure out where to play your

472
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:18,760
Speaker 1: leagues as well and how many innings limits you want.

473
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 1: You can basically do whatever you want over on fan Tracks.

474
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,400
Speaker 1: There's no limit because it runs three hundred and sixty

475
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 1: five days a year. You have offseason trades for all

476
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 1: your dynasty leagues, real time updates, seamless player transactions as well.

477
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,480
Speaker 1: You could trade draft picks as well over on fan

478
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 1: Tricks and unique scoring systems too. So, however you want

479
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 1: to create your fantasy for baseball, you can do it

480
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:39,960
Speaker 1: over on fan Tracks. So bring your fantasy baseball league

481
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 1: to fan Tracks today for an unbeatable user experience. Sign

482
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 1: up today at fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros. That's

483
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,199
Speaker 1: fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros. All right. Next grouping

484
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,000
Speaker 1: here in the second tier, we're gonna start off with

485
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:55,160
Speaker 1: Freddy Peralta, who at sixteen annually. I mean, I think

486
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:58,719
Speaker 1: another grossly underrated product the three straight seasons of two

487
00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 1: hundred bus strikeouts, is playing in a contract a year

488
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 1: for the New York Mets. He seems like a happy

489
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 1: camper so far in camp. Joe Ryan Deal with a

490
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 1: back issue at number seventeen, will keep it on that ranking.

491
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 1: George Kirby at eighteen, Dylan Ceese at nineteen. I want

492
00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 1: to pause there on Dylan Cees for a moment. Dylan

493
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:13,160
Speaker 1: see is a bit of an enigma last year another

494
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 1: guy too, who takes the ball every fifth day. Durability

495
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:18,679
Speaker 1: is the best ability. He has fluctuated a little bit

496
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:21,400
Speaker 1: sometimes with that walk right from time to time. Last year,

497
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,439
Speaker 1: I think a lot of us who dug into the

498
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 1: deeper numbers on fangrafts consistently we're saying, well, but the

499
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,960
Speaker 1: expected DRA is better than the ERA, and the x

500
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 1: FIP is better than the RA. I mean, eventually, this

501
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 1: is gonna get right right, Like everything's gonna be okay,

502
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 1: and that just never did so now he's in Toronto,

503
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 1: So what does that mean for Dylan Ceason twenty twenty six.

504
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 1: You know, I want to get your take on Dylan Ceason,

505
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 1: his new location, what happened last year in terms of

506
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 1: some of the progress he made the year before and

507
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 1: losing that.

508
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the second half was a little bit better,

509
00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 2: but a four to zero four era is nothing to

510
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 2: write home about for Cease in the second half there. So, yeah,

511
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 2: I think you're right that he's just a guy that

512
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,840
Speaker 2: has a very small arsenal in that fastball and slider

513
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 2: for the most part, and when his command is really good,

514
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,919
Speaker 2: he has the good years, and when his command is

515
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:08,680
Speaker 2: not as good, he has the bad years. I think

516
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 2: last year there's some team factors that also contributed. The

517
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 2: defense was the batting averagon balls and play was the

518
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 2: worst of his career. So there's some reasons that, like,

519
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 2: you would expect him just to be better even if

520
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,359
Speaker 2: he has these flaws. But one thing that I like

521
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:28,199
Speaker 2: about him changing teams is there's another voice here in

522
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 2: particularly the Blue Jays. They have thrown more splitters as

523
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 2: an organization than any other team in baseball in the

524
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 2: minor leagues and the major leagues for the last couple

525
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 2: of years. And I don't know if it's going to

526
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 2: necessarily be exactly a splitter that Sees throws, but that

527
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,239
Speaker 2: just makes me think that if there's some team that

528
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 2: could maybe get him to throw a usable change up,

529
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 2: it might be them. I just want him to throw

530
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 2: one more pitch he can command, and maybe one more

531
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 2: pitch for action. Just widen that arsenal a little bit

532
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,159
Speaker 2: and will it'll take the pre sure off of his

533
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,199
Speaker 2: fastball and a slider, which are excellent. But if you

534
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 2: have such a small arsenal, what you are do get

535
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 2: prone to are home runs and shorter outings, which anybody

536
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 2: who's watched CS knows both of those things have been

537
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:14,400
Speaker 2: a problem for him.

538
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 1: Wels in an era of pictures that you know so

539
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 1: often we talk about injuries, were discussing injuries at the

540
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:22,120
Speaker 1: top of the show when we have any really begun

541
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 1: baseball barely. Dylan Cees is a guy that shows up.

542
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: Dylan Sees is the guy that eats innings, and he

543
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 1: is mostly positive he's gonna give you strikeouts. You know that.

544
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 1: But to some of you know's points too, there has

545
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 1: been some inconsistencies. There's been the good Dylan Seas and

546
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 1: the bad Dylan Seas. Is he a player that's on

547
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 1: your radar at all as current ADP so.

548
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 3: Not really like I definitely could draft him, but he's

549
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 3: not in my draft target and belt the inconsistencies. I

550
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:49,359
Speaker 3: always likened him to like you had to play fantasy

551
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 3: baseball for a long time, but like you remember Justin

552
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 3: Upton and how like inconsistent it be like one he

553
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 3: was like the Upton of like seasons, it'd be like

554
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 3: one half as good, one half as the other. He

555
00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 3: was a little bit better this past year. He can

556
00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 3: have a stretch of ten games that are like phenomenal,

557
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 3: and then he can just kind of fall apart and

558
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 3: blow up, and he's just kind of trying to readjust

559
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 3: and fix himself in the season. I'd love to see

560
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 3: a pitch change as well. You know, one of the

561
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 3: things that's really odd about him is, and I guess

562
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 3: it's always kind of been the case, but this past

563
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 3: year even more. He throws his slider and four seam

564
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,880
Speaker 3: batting average against was worse this year than the previous year.

565
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 3: But when he threw his curve or that sinker. He

566
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 3: got smashed. Three forty four batting average against on the curve,

567
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,879
Speaker 3: three forty five on the sinker. He just got absolutely smashed.

568
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 3: So it would be really great if this team could

569
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 3: be out there helping him in any type of third

570
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 3: pitch adjustment, and I think that could help create some

571
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 3: consistencies and throwing for strikes. Maybe Gossman will end up

572
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 3: being like a really you know, you know a little

573
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 3: just kind of brush off some great.

574
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 2: Gospeins, a new pitch guy too. But somehow I think

575
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,719
Speaker 2: the command has just been great. And you know, one

576
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 2: thing they did with Gossman was they said, hey, throw

577
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 2: some low fastballs, because what you're doing is throwing high

578
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 2: fastballs and splitters, and they're just seeing if it's high,

579
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 2: it's gonna be hard. If it's low, it's gonna to

580
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 2: be the splitter. That makes it very easy to face you.

581
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 2: So just throw some low fast while get some called strikes.

582
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 2: That was literally the biggest adjustment that they made with Gossman.

583
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,120
Speaker 2: Maybe there's something like that for c Yeah, well.

584
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 3: Like like a veteran to pitch pitch. There was this video.

585
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 3: It doesn't maybe mean much anybody, but from Camp a

586
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 3: couple of days ago that and I'm not out there,

587
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 3: so this isn't like me being like, oh, well, who's

588
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,360
Speaker 3: the screws talking? But it was a video someone posted

589
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 3: and it was Gossman walking with Cody Ponce, who I

590
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 3: love this year, and Dylan Cees and they're walking up

591
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 3: a hill and Kevin Gosman is just spitting just information

592
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 3: at them, talking about pitching and talking about location and stuff,

593
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 3: and that's the kind of thing that's in my head.

594
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 3: It's like, maybe that's something that could end up clicking

595
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,239
Speaker 3: for a guy like Dylan Cees because we definitely know

596
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 3: what the good can look like, but the good is

597
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 3: also paired with just inconsistent, consistent inconsistencies, like you just

598
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 3: know there's gonna be a stretch where it's not good.

599
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 3: So I see the upside of Dylan Ce's I know,

600
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 3: like Rico really loves him and stuff like that, but

601
00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:58,679
Speaker 3: I would love like a little bit more of a

602
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:00,880
Speaker 3: discount on him. He's going into the top twenty. He's

603
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 3: not inside the top twenty for me.

604
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 1: Well, I think environment's really important too, especially for a

605
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 1: younger pitchers sometimes, because I mean it's one of the

606
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: reasons why I'm really intrigued by Mackenzi Gore this year

607
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 1: because when all of a sudden that you have an

608
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 1: Evaldi and a Gram sitting next to you, you know,

609
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 1: every day, and you're sitting there on the bench, You'd

610
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 1: be crazy not to pick their brains. These guys have

611
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 1: been in the league a long time and had a lot

612
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 1: of success, Like that's how you get better. I don't

613
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 1: think you could do that on the Nationals last year.

614
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 1: You know, when you go through a rough patches, nobody

615
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:25,440
Speaker 1: there to help you through it.

616
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 3: And also Rangers organization has like completely revamped how they

617
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 3: develop pitching just in general two, so I'd give them

618
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 3: the extra bonus. I'm also a Mackenzi Gore like fan

619
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 3: for this year.

620
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 1: I love him at the ADP, especially what the upside

621
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 1: is all right, number twenty on the list on the rankings.

622
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,439
Speaker 1: As hazus Lozardo, I want to talk about him for

623
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 1: a moment because you know this is one of your targets.

624
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 1: A weird season for him, right, came on like Gangbusters

625
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 1: in April. Then he had a five ERA in May,

626
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 1: in June and July, and then the ERA dropped down

627
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 1: to three for the last two months of the season.

628
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 1: At times he struggled against right handed hitters. It was

629
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 1: just a weird year for hazus Lozardo, despite the fact

630
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 1: that there was a lot of success. So what did

631
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 1: you see in twenty twenty five that makes you excited

632
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 1: about him in twenty twenty six when some of that

633
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 1: up and down that he did.

634
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 2: Experience actually have him as an avoid Oh nothing, excited,

635
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 2: there's nothing.

636
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 1: It's not a target. Oh it's an avoid target. Oh yeah,

637
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,159
Speaker 1: in me pardon me, the target bit that's on me,

638
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 1: my apology.

639
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:19,680
Speaker 3: So why do you hate him?

640
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 2: So?

641
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 1: Yeah?

642
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 3: What about him face makes you hate him?

643
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 2: Well, just the thing is he his velocity has has

644
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:31,120
Speaker 2: has really oscillated, and it's usually plus you know, even

645
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 2: when it's ninety five. That's pretty good, you know, especially

646
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 2: from the left side. But there's this weird thing that

647
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 2: when he has a velocity under ninety six miles an hour,

648
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 2: his ERA is like four and a half on the season,

649
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 2: and when he has over ninety six miles an hour,

650
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,880
Speaker 2: his era is three point six. Last year was ninety

651
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:55,120
Speaker 2: six point four. Aging comes for everybody if it's ninety

652
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 2: six one or ninety five to nine. This year like,

653
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 2: are we getting too close to where he was bad?

654
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 2: Like he was his shapes on his fastballs are not good.

655
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 2: And so when you know, when it gets too close,

656
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 2: when the villa gets too close to the league average,

657
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 2: I think he's not like the sort of the soft

658
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 2: stuff around is not good, Like the command's not that great,

659
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 2: that health that's not that great. And then when his

660
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 2: velo drops, the shapes aren't great. So like, I know

661
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 2: that when he's throwing ninety seven, he looks dominant, and

662
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 2: you know, you're like, oh, all the wins on this

663
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 2: Philly staff and all that, but I just see too

664
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,479
Speaker 2: much where I'm like this, this could go wrong in

665
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 2: lots of different ways. You could get hurt so much better,

666
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 2: you could go down a little bit.

667
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, because you know, I was kind of bashing him

668
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 1: in my intro, So now I feel he was an

669
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 1: avoid of years, all right, So he's an avoid of

670
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 1: twenty I agree with that consensus obviously. From the intro

671
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 1: twenty one. Kyle Brash really interesting, you know, talked about

672
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 1: guys who want to see at the end of the

673
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: year come back and have a little bit to prove

674
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: that they were healthy. Kyle Bresh, he's exactly that guy

675
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 1: for me too. Franber Valdez a twenty two, the number

676
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 1: newest member of the Detroit Tigers. Then Blake Snell at

677
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 1: twenty three. Now, well, this is a guy you're avoiding.

678
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 1: Blake Snell have a history together, lots of pictures taking

679
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 1: in spring training, lots of time hanging out doing curricular activities,

680
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 1: a little extra. So let's talk about Blake Snell for

681
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 1: a second here, because already going into the season, despite

682
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 1: the fact that he did pitch in the postseason and

683
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 1: down the stretch for the Dodgers and pretty effectively of that,

684
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 1: there's been concerns about him starting the season on time.

685
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 1: So is it just as simple as that it's just

686
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: too high of a risk considering already it's it's not

687
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 1: even March and we're already concerned about him starting the

688
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 1: season on time.

689
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, My mine's pretty simplistic. It's not about his stuff

690
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 3: like this is this borderlines the Jacob de grim things

691
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 3: from a couple of years ago in that like, when

692
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 3: Jacob de Graham was out there, he's amazing. So I'd

693
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 3: always find points to defend. I'd be like, well, when

694
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 3: he's out there, he's one of the best pitchers and

695
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:49,479
Speaker 3: blah blah blah, and he'd be hurt. This is simply

696
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 3: about Blake Snell missed a boatload of games last year

697
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 3: to a shoulder issue. He currently has a shoulder issue.

698
00:29:57,000 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 3: There is no actual timeline. Katie Wu reported today that

699
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 3: there is no timeline and that according to Dave Roberts,

700
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 3: times ticking. But like I told him the other day,

701
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 3: Opening Day is not a necessarily a hard or fast

702
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:12,479
Speaker 3: target for US. I just don't want to have early

703
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 3: heavy investment on a pitcher that's got a shoulder injury.

704
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 3: I don't know what that's going to do. How many

705
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 3: times have we gone down this road with Blake Snell.

706
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 3: He is massively talented. But throw in six man rotations,

707
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 3: throw in the lack of need for this team to

708
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 3: be hyper aggressive early because they're so dominant across the board,

709
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 3: and they've got they can throw river you know, the

710
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 3: river ions of the world's out there injury stuff. You know,

711
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 3: they've got guys that they can continuously throw out if

712
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 3: they stretch out Rokie that they just don't need to

713
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 3: push Blake Snell, So they don't need to push them.

714
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 3: They've got six men rotations, they're playing for October, and

715
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 3: he had a shoulder injury that had to miss so

716
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 3: much time last year, So to invest in him in

717
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 3: the top twenty five, it doesn't make sense to me,

718
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 3: even though his stuff is really good. I have taken

719
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 3: based on like my Blake Snell or my look Web

720
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 3: approach earlier. I kind of want whatever safe pitching, whatever

721
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 3: that actually is. I want that a little bit more

722
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 3: early on, and then I'll just take some shots later on.

723
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 3: Really like lower priced players on the upside. So I

724
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 3: just don't like as much as like, as talented as

725
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 3: he is and funny guy, and he's very lovable. I

726
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 3: know ENO's had interactions. He was great with Ino kids,

727
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 3: and I've been around Snake. He was nice with Snell,

728
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 3: He's been really nice with my son, like all of that.

729
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 3: It's all great, But he's got a shoulder injury, and

730
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 3: it's just like, as lovable as he is, I don't

731
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 3: want a draft on Fantasy right now a guy that

732
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 3: has a shoulder injury into the beginning of the year,

733
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 3: no matter what they're doing. So he's kind of a

734
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 3: hard pass for me right now.

735
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 1: All right, So this is the sweet spot coming up

736
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 1: that I really like it. Number twenty four is Nick Bavetta.

737
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: But after that, two guys that I just did a

738
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 1: video here on the channel about Eury Perez at twenty five,

739
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 1: Noel McLain in twenty six. I think both these guys

740
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 1: are being undervalued, underappreciated. Let's start with Uri Perez here,

741
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 1: because Eury Perez, not that long ago, was the guy

742
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 1: that everybody was talking about right before Paul Skeens took

743
00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 1: the world by storm. Was oh my god, look at

744
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 1: this twenty year old Uri Perez, how incredible he is.

745
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 1: And when he came back last year from the Tommy

746
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 1: John he basically through the exact same season he did

747
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 1: two years ago before he got hurt. Statistically speaking, the

748
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: only difference is that Era was actually a little higher,

749
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 1: But if you go dig a little deeper, it should

750
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: have been a little lower. And if you go back

751
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 1: to the rookie season, Eerie was a lower, it should

752
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 1: have been a little higher. So hopefully eventually we get

753
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 1: sort of a I don't like a middling of everything,

754
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 1: where everything just kind of comes back here and we

755
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 1: get a full healthy season from Uri Perez. What does

756
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 1: that look like, Emo in your mind?

757
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 2: I just think there's so much stuff here. I've got

758
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 2: this stat called stuff Plus that I helped develop that's

759
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 2: on fangrafs, and you know, it just looks at the

760
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:39,840
Speaker 2: shapes and vilas of your pitches. And if you look

761
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 2: at last year at pitchers who had a thousand pitches,

762
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 2: and you look at the stuff plus. Among starters, it's

763
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 2: Tek Scoogle number one. Uh, it's Hunter Green number two,

764
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 2: Christopher Sanchez number three, Garrett Crochet number four, Chris Sale five,

765
00:32:55,360 --> 00:33:00,080
Speaker 2: Mazerowski six, Ury Perez seven. He has the kind of

766
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 2: off that you'd expect from a closer, except he's a

767
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 2: starting pitcher. He can do it over and over again.

768
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 2: The only problem he had last year was a home

769
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 2: run problem away from home. I just don't believe that's

770
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 2: going to continue. This guy throws so much heat. You know,

771
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 2: you've got a ninety eight mile hour fastball, You've got

772
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 2: a ninety mile hour changeup that didn't exist when I

773
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 2: was a kid. I'm sure of it. And then ten

774
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 2: mile hour, you got an eighty mine hour curveball and

775
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 2: an eighty five hour slider. It's just a it's a

776
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 2: full arsenal, no real command issues, and the home park

777
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 2: is going to be so nice to him. And I

778
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 2: think he's just going to be dominant this year. I

779
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 2: think that he's got the innings, he should have the

780
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 2: health this year. This is this is going to be

781
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:45,239
Speaker 2: his He's going to leap like Christopher Sanchez into the

782
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 2: top ten.

783
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 1: I like the sound of that. I got it in

784
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 1: my home league. He's a keeper of mine, so very

785
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 1: excited about that prospect. And you know, he knows so

786
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 1: much more impressive than us. Well, she creates real statistics

787
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 1: and we just make them up. A couple of years ago,

788
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 1: we made up one called X plug and let's just

789
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 1: make up of us that, right, and we would have

790
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 1: you know, people on the show and every and now

791
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 1: and then we would just drop it in there. I

792
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:09,359
Speaker 1: remember we asked Justin Mason wants to does this three

793
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 1: eighteen X plug concern you at all? And we tried

794
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 1: to get him yeah, and he just filibustered for like

795
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 1: a good five minutes, and then we let him off

796
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 1: the hook about it. Nick Pollock was like he knew

797
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 1: right away. He's like, that's not a real thing, is it?

798
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:25,399
Speaker 3: I said, no, very funny you say that because it's

799
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 3: the spoiler for the for the starting Pitching Guide Part two,

800
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 3: Our dear friend Nick Pollock said, I'm very excited to

801
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 3: talk about x plug again.

802
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,240
Speaker 1: Remember that that's why you got to watch the Ultimate Guides.

803
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 1: It's funny because you know sometimes we like, you know,

804
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 1: we like to have fun on the show, catch people

805
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 1: off card. We're serious about our baseball, but we're not

806
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 1: serious about ourselves. We try to be a little bit

807
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 1: somewhere between there. The next guy I'm very serious about though,

808
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:52,399
Speaker 1: at number twenty six, Nolan McClain, and not just because

809
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,840
Speaker 1: he's a New York Met. I'm serious about him. I'm serious.

810
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:56,800
Speaker 1: IM still serious about joanah Tong too much later. I

811
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 1: can't wait to talk to Nick on that next one

812
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 1: about him tomorrow when we record that one, because he

813
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:03,839
Speaker 1: showed up the camp looking like Quadzilla too. Like the

814
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 1: lower half much improved in terms physically, but Nolan McLain

815
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 1: last year just dominated throughout Double A, Triple A up

816
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 1: to the Major League. The eight Stars were terrific. The

817
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 1: Mets seem really confident, and I love the Freddy per

818
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:17,360
Speaker 1: Alta edition too because it takes a lot of pressure

819
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 1: off Himler. Look, you don't have to carry the whole rotation.

820
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 1: I think mentally that can really wear on a young pitcher.

821
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 1: Some guys are up for it, Mike Skeans, some guys aren't,

822
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:26,439
Speaker 1: And you know, I just I don't like to throw

823
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,799
Speaker 1: that onto a young pitcher. So Welsh, I know this

824
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 1: is tough for you to talk nice about in New

825
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 1: York mets. So I want to hear all about this.

826
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 1: And you're Noel McClain.

827
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 3: Tay, I've been doing this since November. Actually, Ino was

828
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 3: a part of the show, the live show we did here,

829
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:41,720
Speaker 3: the Fantasy Pro Show, and I talked about Nolan McClain

830
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 3: on that. So I don't mean to like retread, but

831
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:45,799
Speaker 3: I'll tell you one thing. I'm not in love with

832
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:47,719
Speaker 3: this tier of pitching as far as like what my

833
00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:50,880
Speaker 3: targets are. So not that I'm saying I won't draft

834
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 3: some of these guys, but like I think i'm a

835
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:55,839
Speaker 3: little more more begrudging. Like if I have a Tyler Glass, now,

836
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 3: I'm like, okay, if I have a Kevin Goslin, Okay,

837
00:35:58,120 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 3: you know, like a lot of these are just okay.

838
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 3: But Noman McClain is somebody that I do want. I

839
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 3: definitely don't know if he's underrated because the one thing

840
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 3: that has happened since we did that live show at

841
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,840
Speaker 3: First Pitch Arizona to now is he's only just skyrocketed.

842
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:13,360
Speaker 3: But I still think even as SP twenty six, he

843
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:17,280
Speaker 3: still has the stuff to be a top twenty starting pitcher.

844
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 3: And he's a guy you want to own. He was

845
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 3: unphased this past year to era never had one of

846
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,760
Speaker 3: those blow up games as a rookie through ninety five,

847
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:29,359
Speaker 3: his curveball absolutely dominant fifty percent with rate. And as

848
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:31,440
Speaker 3: I cited on that show and I'll cite again, one

849
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 3: of the more eye popping things is if you go

850
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 3: and look on fangrafts at the stuff Plus model, every

851
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 3: single pitch he threw was a one hundred or higher

852
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 3: more impressive. Five of six registered pitches were over a

853
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 3: one hundred. He had a one seventeen stuff Plus. And

854
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,400
Speaker 3: I think the most impressive thing too, that curveball that

855
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:54,080
Speaker 3: I mentioned, and I'm not I didn't sort it right now,

856
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 3: but I did this in November. I believe if qualified

857
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 3: would have been the number one curveball stuff Plus overall

858
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:03,399
Speaker 3: of these guys. That is to also throw in that

859
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 3: this guy doesn't have crazy command issues right now. One

860
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 3: I mean he is a pitching stuff plus monster. He

861
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 3: throws out crazy, crazy spin numbers thirty two hundred rpm.

862
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 3: And by the way, he's only been a full time

863
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:20,439
Speaker 3: pitcher for like three or four years, so I think

864
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 3: everything is moving in his direction. He's going to be

865
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 3: counted on this year. You know, like you are asking

866
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:28,720
Speaker 3: a lot of a young pitcher to get a big,

867
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 3: dominant like one hundred and seventy plus inning season and that,

868
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 3: and he really wasn't phased last year, so like, what

869
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:35,800
Speaker 3: are we in for? But this is the type of

870
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 3: guy that you want to put the risk on. The

871
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 3: stuff plus numbers love him. Everything he did last year

872
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:43,720
Speaker 3: loves him. He's got huge strikeout pitches. I'm just a big,

873
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 3: big fan of Nolan McClain in that thirty percent K percentage,

874
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 3: and as long as there's no big regression, I think

875
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 3: it's to be hard for him to not be a

876
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 3: top twenty five starting pitcher. So regardless of being in

877
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 3: a rookie he is definitely one of my targets for

878
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:55,359
Speaker 3: this year.

879
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 1: All right, let's do lightning round, all right, just kind

880
00:37:57,680 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 1: of yes or no or one like quick hitter on

881
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:02,360
Speaker 1: the last as guys in this tier, Spencer Schrider twenty seven.

882
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 1: Bounce back Eno Yes or no?

883
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 2: No, I don't think so. Usually his stuff comes back

884
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 2: after surgery and his.

885
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:12,359
Speaker 1: Didn't, okay, Welsh Yes or no on Spencer Stryder inter.

886
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:16,359
Speaker 3: Out, I'm gonna say yes, but I don't think full

887
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,280
Speaker 3: so I'm kind of hedging. I'll just say in general,

888
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 3: like i'll target him, so let's just go yes. But

889
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 3: I don't think he'll be like original Strider Tyler Glass.

890
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 1: Now you gotta get fooled again. Welsh No.

891
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,359
Speaker 3: I mean he's fine, but I don't want any part

892
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 3: of it.

893
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 2: You know, I don't know. He's still struck out thirty

894
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 2: percent of the guys he saw last year. I've got

895
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:33,320
Speaker 2: a couple of shares.

896
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,239
Speaker 1: Yes, oh yeah, all right, Well, you know it's easy

897
00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:37,959
Speaker 1: to do when only face about thirty guys he strikes

898
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:41,560
Speaker 1: out out, all right. Kevin Gosman twenty nine. A guy

899
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:43,919
Speaker 1: that Welsh you and I argued quite a bit about

900
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:45,759
Speaker 1: last year ended up turning in a pretty good season.

901
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:47,280
Speaker 1: Interro Out on Kevin Gosman.

902
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,440
Speaker 3: I mean again, it's just a little bit more begrudging.

903
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 3: Like I told you, a lot of these guys are

904
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:53,919
Speaker 3: begrudging to me. But like, I'm fine, I'm fine getting

905
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 3: the innings from him.

906
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 2: He's all right.

907
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:57,959
Speaker 1: Last one here in this tier. Brendan Woodruff for you.

908
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,319
Speaker 1: You know, again, a guy that just could not make

909
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 1: his way back. He had some awful luck there on

910
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 1: his path to recovery, and look a lot is writing

911
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 1: on him in that brew rotation this year.

912
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:10,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a little bit worried just because he didn't

913
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 2: throw his breaking balls at all after surgery, and then

914
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 2: he got hurt in a different way. So I just,

915
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 2: you know, sometimes we think, oh, he fixed the thing

916
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:20,400
Speaker 2: that was hurt, you know, and he did have the

917
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: surgery and it was a big deal surgery and he

918
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 2: came back from it, but then he got hurt another way.

919
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 2: So I'm worried that we're headed into like a often

920
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 2: hurt part of his career and.

921
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 1: The physical breakdown period.

922
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 2: Like just the fact that he didn't throw the sliders

923
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:35,680
Speaker 2: and the breaking balls after he came back, says that, like,

924
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 2: are we sure he's one hundred percent right now as

925
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 2: we speak.

926
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:41,360
Speaker 1: That's scary for the Brewers.

927
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 3: After he was I was at the Brewis camp the

928
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:45,080
Speaker 3: other day and he was around, but he was kind

929
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 3: of hoodiing it and not doing really anything like that's

930
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:48,439
Speaker 3: not good.

931
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,359
Speaker 1: I want to be like he make Dark Joe come back.

932
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 1: Dark joke, Brandon Woodroff never coming back. We had this

933
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 1: bit loud yeah, that would be where I would turn

934
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 1: all the lights off and I was like, Brandon Woodroff. Oh,

935
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 1: Brandon Woodroof's never coming back. Oh what oh, everything is fine?

936
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:08,800
Speaker 1: How about a stray ground ball to the balls? No, Brandon,

937
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 1: You're never coming back. It was a fun bit we

938
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 1: like to do on the show. Here, all right, let's

939
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 1: get to numbers thirty one through forty five. And by

940
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 1: the way, don't forget our sponsor today show is hard

941
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,040
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945
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946
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:32,040
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00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:34,440
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948
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:37,040
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949
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:41,600
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950
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,799
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply.

951
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,359
Speaker 1: Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight three three

952
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 1: play wise. In Indiana. If you are someone you know

953
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 1: is a gambling problem wants help, called one eight hundred

954
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:54,800
Speaker 1: and nine with it gambling problem called one hundred gambler

955
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 1: in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.

956
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 1: All right, thirty one Sunny Gray Now the Boston Red

957
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,080
Speaker 1: Sox Treya Savage. What a year for him? I mean

958
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 1: going all the way up? You know, quick take on

959
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:08,279
Speaker 1: Treya Savage for me too, because I'm curious what you

960
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,399
Speaker 1: make of a guy who had such a meteoric rise

961
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 1: going from Single A to the World Series all in

962
00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:16,000
Speaker 1: the same year and not looking out of place? Do

963
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 1: you see a lot of regression? Do you think this

964
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 1: is the right place for him? What do you make

965
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 1: of Tray Savage's value? Right now?

966
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 2: I'm taking Jacob Miserowski over him because you know, when

967
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 2: I see there's some risk in Trey Savage, which is

968
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 2: that he has such a unique release point and you

969
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 2: know a set of of pitches that maybe it really

970
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:36,400
Speaker 2: worked amazingly the first time through, and then maybe the

971
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 2: second and third time people see this it doesn't work

972
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 2: as well, especially since since he doesn't have great command,

973
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 2: there might be ways that hitters can be like, I

974
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:45,840
Speaker 2: know what to sit on, I know what I'm not

975
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 2: gonna I'm not gonna swing at this. I'm not gonna

976
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 2: swing at this. He is throwing a new curveball in camp,

977
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 2: which would give him something that went sideways that he

978
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:56,960
Speaker 2: does not have. But in general, I just like Miserowski

979
00:41:57,000 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 2: better because miss Erowski had a similar command problem, but

980
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:02,400
Speaker 2: he's fixed it by throwing a ninety two mile on

981
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 2: I slider right in the zone. And I think it's

982
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 2: just hard to hit a ninety two mile on IRIS slider.

983
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:09,920
Speaker 2: So I think Miserowski has figured out a way to

984
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 2: has already sort of pre adjusted, whereas we may have

985
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:15,359
Speaker 2: to wait for you Savage to make an adjustment this year.

986
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 1: Miserowski at thirty three, right after you es savaged a

987
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 1: good conversation there. Nathany Ivaldia thirty four, who had a

988
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 1: great season before his injury. He was absolutely dominanting Cam

989
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 1: Schlitzler at thirty five, another guy who came on like

990
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:29,399
Speaker 1: Gangbusters for the New York Yankees, and a thirty six

991
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 1: Michael King Welsh. Michael King one of our favorite guys.

992
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:34,360
Speaker 1: A couple of years ago, we were on the Michael

993
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 1: King bandwagon. He had a fantastic twenty twenty four. Twenty

994
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 1: twenty five was not quite the follow up. Health had

995
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 1: a lot to do with it. So does he get

996
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:44,839
Speaker 1: a pass from you for last year and what does

997
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 1: it mean that the Padres felt good enough to bring

998
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 1: him back this offseason?

999
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:50,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's like a pseudo pass because you're

1000
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 3: getting I don't I think a pretty good discount outside

1001
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 3: the top thirty five. Like Michael King has got really

1002
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:58,480
Speaker 3: great shapes. I said this lot in the offseason. You know,

1003
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:00,719
Speaker 3: Lance Prasdowski spent a lot of time time talking about

1004
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:02,239
Speaker 3: what a great free agent he'd be in so many

1005
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 3: different markets, specifically the Cubs, because it's like, yeah, the

1006
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 3: results weren't there, but this guy's just got like, really

1007
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 3: really good shapes. He spins the ball a bunch, and

1008
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 3: I think there's still a lot in the tank for

1009
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:15,800
Speaker 3: him if a healthy season can do wonders good offense

1010
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 3: behind Great Ballpark to pitch. I'm a Michael King guy.

1011
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 3: Twenty four percent K percentage close to twenty five that

1012
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 3: I think was just part of the down. This is

1013
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 3: after having a twenty seven and a twenty nine percent

1014
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 3: K percentage. Those are on the higher end. So if

1015
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 3: I can get one hundred and fifty innings out of

1016
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 3: Michael King, I think he's gonna easily beat the top

1017
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:36,280
Speaker 3: thirty five sp So I want to have some shares.

1018
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:38,360
Speaker 1: I can't wait till we get to the busts and

1019
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 1: they must have and the sleepers, because there's gonna be

1020
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 1: some fun debate here with some of these guys we're

1021
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 1: talking about real quick EMO for you, what's your take

1022
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 1: on Michael King in twenty twenty six.

1023
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 2: It's just, you know, it doesn't all.

1024
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 1: I feel like, oh boy, oh boy, that was not good.

1025
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:54,720
Speaker 1: You know, I didn't not care.

1026
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 2: For that long and hot at Michael King. I'm just

1027
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:00,879
Speaker 2: gonna borrow an answer and just be like, I think

1028
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 2: I'm targeting other things around here, because you know, he's

1029
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 2: part of a group of injury risks that we're going

1030
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 2: to get to here. I mean, if you don't mind

1031
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 2: me kind of jumping ahead here, Nick Lodolo, Zach Wheeler.

1032
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:19,719
Speaker 2: You know, you know, there's some injury risks that are

1033
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 2: coming up right here. And I don't know if it's

1034
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 2: the time of the season. Right now, early in the season,

1035
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 2: I'm drafting a lot of draft and holds where it's

1036
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:30,799
Speaker 2: really important to have the innings because you don't have

1037
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:34,879
Speaker 2: the waiver wire. You know, I will I will say

1038
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 2: that if it was in a ten team league with

1039
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,759
Speaker 2: a waiver wire and il slots, then I'm I'm back

1040
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 2: in on these guys because I have a place to

1041
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 2: put them, and I can go to a waiver wire

1042
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 2: and pick guys up. So, you know, a guy who's

1043
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 2: either injured or really good, like a Wheeler or King,

1044
00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 2: you know, I think that's fine. I don't want to

1045
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 2: I don't think he's like ranked really poorly. But I

1046
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,759
Speaker 2: just right now I'm drafting in leagues where innings is

1047
00:44:57,800 --> 00:45:00,520
Speaker 2: everything and I and I don't know how many innings

1048
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 2: he's going to give you.

1049
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:03,440
Speaker 1: I think that's a great piece of advice. Though too

1050
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:05,400
Speaker 1: it was a shallow league, you could take more of

1051
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 1: a chance on guys like this, and look, Wheeler scares

1052
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 1: the academy thoracic outlets syndrome no matter what brand of

1053
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 1: it has not been very kind to a lot of

1054
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 1: majorleague pitchers over the years, So that scares the Heckademy.

1055
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 1: Lodola was thirty seven.

1056
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:18,879
Speaker 3: Hold on real quick on? Can I go back real quick?

1057
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:19,000
Speaker 1: Oh?

1058
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:21,840
Speaker 3: Yes, because I think it's just an interesting thing. You know,

1059
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 3: what do you think of ATC or is like Cardi

1060
00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 3: or Ario putting. They put it almost one hundred and

1061
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:31,920
Speaker 3: sixty innings on Michael King. Yeah, it's just feel optimistic.

1062
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 2: That's yeah. I don't I don't have a number like that.

1063
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:38,799
Speaker 2: I ended up just a hand projecting innings because you know,

1064
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:41,399
Speaker 2: if you use depth charts, projections and stuff like that,

1065
00:45:41,520 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 2: they have they have their own numbers that are done

1066
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 2: by humans for the most part. Some of the systems

1067
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:51,319
Speaker 2: project their own number using data. I just I think that,

1068
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 2: you know, I'm going to do a blend of human

1069
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 2: and data. So I've got a one forty five number

1070
00:45:56,920 --> 00:45:57,279
Speaker 2: for him.

1071
00:45:57,800 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's interesting because he pitched one hundred and seventy

1072
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:02,280
Speaker 3: the year prior as the first season as a starter,

1073
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 3: and you put up one hundred the year before. But

1074
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 3: also just want to point out just as one other

1075
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:10,320
Speaker 3: caveat is this is also a very important deciphering between

1076
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 3: the you know, normal consumer home league type of stuff

1077
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,920
Speaker 3: and the just NFBC type of leagues. Like hold, the

1078
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 3: draft and hold, like the conversation the draft and hold

1079
00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:24,800
Speaker 3: league conversation uh molds into us talking about like people

1080
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 3: that are just doing their home leagues more and more

1081
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 3: than ever because exactly what you know just said, draft

1082
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:32,359
Speaker 3: and hold. Don't want these injured guys run away from

1083
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 3: them with it, you know, wouldn't hit them with a stick.

1084
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 1: That's not it.

1085
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:38,759
Speaker 2: You might want Louis Castillo as boring as Louis Castillo is.

1086
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:42,040
Speaker 2: You might want them over Michael King because you're just like, hey,

1087
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 2: I'll get one hundred and eighty innings. I'll probably use

1088
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:46,399
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty one hundred and forty of those

1089
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 2: at home, and like I'll know what I'm getting. What's

1090
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:51,440
Speaker 2: the saying that you wouldn't.

1091
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 1: Use don't don't know? No, no, no, yeah, that's that's

1092
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 1: what you got to tell me. I got it. It's

1093
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:02,000
Speaker 1: a Welsh ism and and it's we haven't had a

1094
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 1: good one yet.

1095
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 3: I'm trying, I'm trying to get my Welsh plus numbers

1096
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:07,799
Speaker 3: up here, guys try to get to weigh them b

1097
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:12,880
Speaker 3: below home leagues versus like draft and hold. Definitely is

1098
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:14,320
Speaker 3: like an important thing for people to be able to

1099
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:16,600
Speaker 3: decipher when you listen to podcasts, because you know you're

1100
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:18,440
Speaker 3: out there going to draft your twelve team home league,

1101
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 3: and if people are only talking about draft and hold

1102
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:23,319
Speaker 3: like that, the you know, you know just kind of

1103
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:24,800
Speaker 3: was able to do a really good job of decipher

1104
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:26,200
Speaker 3: and say, hey, if I'm playing in a twelve team

1105
00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 3: league and I got i L now wheeler is a spot, Well,

1106
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 3: that's important for you guys to know as you're listening

1107
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:33,400
Speaker 3: to it. And that's where I'm talking about that is

1108
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:35,960
Speaker 3: like a guy with Michael King who's low investment in

1109
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:39,760
Speaker 3: those type of formats. I'm already also going for safer

1110
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:42,839
Speaker 3: guys at the top end of my rotations. So this

1111
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:44,760
Speaker 3: is the range where I'm starting to take those risks.

1112
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:46,439
Speaker 3: But I'm not talking in draft and hold.

1113
00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's another piece of context. Is really interesting. What

1114
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:50,120
Speaker 2: did you do with your first few picks? If you

1115
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:52,719
Speaker 2: took Blake Snell before, you can't you can't take Michael

1116
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 2: Kings Absolutely, Yeah.

1117
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 1: Roster instruction matters. Thirty seven Nick Lidolo, who I actually

1118
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:01,840
Speaker 1: thought you know, is finally starting to emerges. The picture

1119
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:03,319
Speaker 1: we've been waiting for for the last couple of years.

1120
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 1: Andanil Contra thirty eight, hopefully a better year and year

1121
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:08,719
Speaker 1: two from Tommy John recovery. Zach Wheeler. We already talked

1122
00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:10,839
Speaker 1: about him at thirty nine. At forty is Chase Burns, Well,

1123
00:48:11,080 --> 00:48:12,759
Speaker 1: this is one of your targets in this range. Let's

1124
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 1: talk about Chase Burns for you and why you like

1125
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:15,240
Speaker 1: him this season.

1126
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:17,320
Speaker 3: I will shake a stick at Chase Burns.

1127
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 1: I got that free.

1128
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 3: I want Logan Web, I want those safe guys because

1129
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 3: this is where I want to start taking a couple

1130
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 3: of shots, and Chase Burns is a guy I want

1131
00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:28,080
Speaker 3: to take the shot on this year. He is in

1132
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:31,359
Speaker 3: line to do some electric stuff. He's already got this

1133
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:35,839
Speaker 3: absolutely ridiculous fastball average ninety nine last year, twenty five

1134
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:38,919
Speaker 3: percent with rate on the fastball, his slider disgusting over

1135
00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:42,359
Speaker 3: ninety miles per hour. Early spring reports look really good.

1136
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:45,160
Speaker 3: Trying to get that change up up more if a

1137
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:48,160
Speaker 3: three pitch mix with decent command. It's not a great ballpark,

1138
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:50,879
Speaker 3: but they've got a ton of offensive support. I think

1139
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 3: He's gonna be really hard to hit this year. And

1140
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:56,200
Speaker 3: I think Chase Burns has top fifteen spup side his stuff.

1141
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:58,000
Speaker 3: I mean, when you want to start looking at like

1142
00:48:58,040 --> 00:48:59,959
Speaker 3: stuff plus numbers. That was one of the big things

1143
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 3: in that draft. God, I'm forgetting it was Chase Burns

1144
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:07,200
Speaker 3: versus I'm forgetting the Rowski and then but it was

1145
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 3: in that draft it was I'm completely forgetting the picture.

1146
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 3: It was Chase, you love Chase Burns or you loved

1147
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 3: another guy, And Chase Burns was the guy that I

1148
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:17,960
Speaker 3: oh in his actual Yeah, in the MLB draft class

1149
00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 3: Joe probably look it up. It's gonna kill me because

1150
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:22,640
Speaker 3: you had to be on one of the two sides

1151
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:26,319
Speaker 3: of these pictures. And this was the This was the

1152
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 3: argument for Chase Burns was his stuff was absolutely electric

1153
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 3: and it's just and it's developing that way, and early

1154
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 3: spring indications are saying all the right things. He's been

1155
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:38,840
Speaker 3: pushed up to the majors to this big, great degree,

1156
00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 3: and I think he, like I said, I think his

1157
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:43,120
Speaker 3: top fifteen sp upside. So this is a guy that

1158
00:49:43,160 --> 00:49:45,200
Speaker 3: I want to pair with a couple of safe guys

1159
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 3: because like you know, said, I can't do that if

1160
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 3: maybe I've taken like there's some risking Cole Reagan's and.

1161
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:52,240
Speaker 1: I take Hagan Smith Smith.

1162
00:49:52,480 --> 00:49:53,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was Hagen Smith.

1163
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 1: That's it.

1164
00:49:53,719 --> 00:49:55,759
Speaker 3: Hagen Smith was this big thank you. It was this

1165
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:56,840
Speaker 3: big like command.

1166
00:49:56,960 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 1: You know, he got.

1167
00:49:57,440 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 3: Whiffs inside the zone. You know, he lived in that

1168
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 3: accomplished college pitcher versus Chase Burns, who had big stuff,

1169
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:06,080
Speaker 3: and people were arguing in Chase Burns. This was my guy,

1170
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 3: and he looks to be living up to that part.

1171
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 3: And I think he has set for a huge breakout

1172
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:13,919
Speaker 3: this year and he's being under ranked in this range.

1173
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:15,719
Speaker 3: So this is a very important guy that I want

1174
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 3: to have on a lot of teams this year.

1175
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 1: It's an interesting area because if forty have Chase Burns

1176
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:21,960
Speaker 1: and you have boring again Eno called him that iding

1177
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:24,560
Speaker 1: call boring Luis Castillo at forty one, and then you

1178
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:26,719
Speaker 1: have emit she had who was also not boring. I think,

1179
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 1: like Chase Burns, huge upside. Another guy too, coming back,

1180
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:33,680
Speaker 1: had some really strong success. He pitches for the Dodgers

1181
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:37,840
Speaker 1: between glass Now and Blakesnell. Obviously there's going to be

1182
00:50:37,840 --> 00:50:40,399
Speaker 1: some open spots at some point for starts and whether

1183
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 1: or not they go to six man rotation or not.

1184
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:45,839
Speaker 1: So Emma, she had your take on him for this season, Emo,

1185
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:46,399
Speaker 1: what is it?

1186
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 2: I mean, he's got an electric fastball, a really great

1187
00:50:50,200 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 2: elite change up, and so he shouldn't have platoon issues.

1188
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:55,359
Speaker 2: That's one thing I like about him. My model does

1189
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:58,320
Speaker 2: not love his breaking balls, but they you know, batters

1190
00:50:58,360 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 2: hit like one hundred and slug two hundred off at

1191
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 2: last year it's like a ninety two mon hour slider.

1192
00:51:03,239 --> 00:51:06,279
Speaker 2: So as you always had to leave room for the

1193
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:09,239
Speaker 2: model being wrong. Plus he if he's got such an

1194
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:10,880
Speaker 2: elite change up, he can throw some right on right

1195
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:14,760
Speaker 2: change ups. Lastly, the team context I think favors him actually,

1196
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:18,240
Speaker 2: because he's one of the few pitchers on this staff

1197
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 2: and the Dodgers' staff that I think is in a

1198
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:22,319
Speaker 2: position to just pitch as much as he wants to.

1199
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:25,319
Speaker 2: You know, I don't think that they're gonna baby him necessarily.

1200
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:29,359
Speaker 2: He's had the surgery, he's young. These older guys are

1201
00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 2: going to have all these injuries, and I think he'll

1202
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 2: get you know, last year, Yaomoto led the Dodgers of

1203
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:36,440
Speaker 2: one hundred and seventy innings. I could see shean getting

1204
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:38,240
Speaker 2: to that one hundred and sixty five hundred and seventy

1205
00:51:38,239 --> 00:51:41,279
Speaker 2: inning threshold, just because all the guys will get hurt

1206
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:44,360
Speaker 2: around him, you know, And that's sort of the season

1207
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 2: I foresee for him.

1208
00:51:45,520 --> 00:51:46,879
Speaker 1: Yeah. I was such a big Shan guy a couple

1209
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 1: years ago. I remember when he was leading the minor

1210
00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:50,680
Speaker 1: leagues and strikeouts and it was just super exciting and

1211
00:51:50,680 --> 00:51:52,759
Speaker 1: it felt like he was just kind of under the

1212
00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 1: radar a little bit, and then unfortunately just injuries happened,

1213
00:51:55,680 --> 00:51:57,480
Speaker 1: and it's great to see him bounce back though. He

1214
00:51:57,520 --> 00:51:59,520
Speaker 1: looks so good last year when he love him all right,

1215
00:51:59,560 --> 00:52:01,959
Speaker 1: The rest of this grouping here in this tier closing

1216
00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:04,279
Speaker 1: out Ryan Pepio, solid guy. I think it was one

1217
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:06,319
Speaker 1: of ENO's guys last year. If memory served on this show,

1218
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:07,759
Speaker 1: I want to say he was a big Pepio guy.

1219
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:09,279
Speaker 1: Solid season on him.

1220
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 2: Look ahead on the rundown, Oh oh yeah yeah, careful

1221
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:14,240
Speaker 2: about the rundown.

1222
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 1: With these last I would just say the name is

1223
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:20,440
Speaker 1: Bubba Chandler forty four, Robbie Ray at forty five. So

1224
00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:23,879
Speaker 1: let's get to the sleepers here, because that last guy,

1225
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:26,799
Speaker 1: or actually second last guy, number forty four is one

1226
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:29,000
Speaker 1: of your sleepers. Welsh Talk to me about Bubba Chandler.

1227
00:52:29,560 --> 00:52:32,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love again. It comes back to my strategy

1228
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 3: of like, give me some of those boring guys are

1229
00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:36,719
Speaker 3: going to do their things for me. And there we're

1230
00:52:36,800 --> 00:52:40,200
Speaker 3: just ripe with just these great young pitching prospects that

1231
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 3: we can take some shots on, from Chase Burns to

1232
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:47,360
Speaker 3: the guy Ino's going to talk about if you like

1233
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 3: Tribute Savage in here, Bubba Chandler is like the cheapest

1234
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:51,960
Speaker 3: of all of those guys. We want to go back

1235
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 3: and we want to use the stuff plus model on fangrafts. Well,

1236
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 3: guess what one oh nine stuff plus fastball one thirteen.

1237
00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 3: Guess what that's good? Slider one A, Guess what that's good.

1238
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 3: Those are his big primary pitches. And through all the

1239
00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:06,759
Speaker 3: kind of nastiness of the minor leagues, he came out,

1240
00:53:07,120 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 3: he got into relief, and then he fin he got

1241
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:11,279
Speaker 3: blown up in one of the starts when they finally

1242
00:53:11,280 --> 00:53:14,040
Speaker 3: put him as a starter, and then he just settled

1243
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:15,880
Speaker 3: in and he went like five I think the last

1244
00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:18,840
Speaker 3: three twenty five percent K percentage only a three percent

1245
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:20,560
Speaker 3: walk rate. This is a guy that had some walk

1246
00:53:20,600 --> 00:53:22,759
Speaker 3: concerns in the miners. Now I don't think he's gonna

1247
00:53:22,760 --> 00:53:24,520
Speaker 3: be a three percent walk guy. He's not gonna be

1248
00:53:25,040 --> 00:53:27,200
Speaker 3: Brian Wu when he gets to the majors. But part

1249
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 3: of that is he's got this big, powerful, combination fastball slider.

1250
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:34,919
Speaker 3: Spent almost the entire offseason with Paul Skeins. I don't

1251
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:37,200
Speaker 3: hate that. I know that's not like a tangible thing

1252
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:39,240
Speaker 3: that you can put on a piece of paper to justify.

1253
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:41,399
Speaker 3: But I think spending an entiight, like literally like at

1254
00:53:41,400 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 3: his house, like spending that type of time, I think

1255
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:45,920
Speaker 3: that's a good ruboff of a guy that had a really,

1256
00:53:45,960 --> 00:53:49,480
Speaker 3: really good debut. He's being ranked almost outside the top

1257
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:51,799
Speaker 3: forty five, and if he gets a significant amount of

1258
00:53:51,800 --> 00:53:53,800
Speaker 3: innings this year, I think he's gonna do some damage.

1259
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,320
Speaker 3: He's projected on. I know we talked about the projections,

1260
00:53:56,360 --> 00:53:59,040
Speaker 3: but one forty plus on a lot of these, I

1261
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:01,840
Speaker 3: think he's being underrated on his strikeouts, and that is

1262
00:54:01,880 --> 00:54:04,520
Speaker 3: one of the most electric fastballs in baseball. So I

1263
00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 3: think Bubba Chandler is a big sleeper because he is

1264
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:10,640
Speaker 3: the lowest of all of these like rookie pitchers that

1265
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:11,680
Speaker 3: are in that big grouping.

1266
00:54:12,120 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 1: You know, talk to me about Cam Schlittler because that's

1267
00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:16,000
Speaker 1: one of your sleepers here this year.

1268
00:54:16,640 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 2: I just was tooling around on his page and I

1269
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:22,680
Speaker 2: just discovered something I don't love so much, which is

1270
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:28,239
Speaker 2: good about about about Cam Schlittler. What I do love

1271
00:54:28,280 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 2: about him is two really good breaking balls in the

1272
00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:33,520
Speaker 2: cutter in the curve. I would consider his cutter of

1273
00:54:33,600 --> 00:54:37,440
Speaker 2: breaking ball. He developed a sinker, you know, over the

1274
00:54:37,440 --> 00:54:39,319
Speaker 2: course of last year, and now he has a real

1275
00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:42,840
Speaker 2: four pitch mix, all just high v low, blow you away.

1276
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 2: I think that he even has some growth in the

1277
00:54:45,000 --> 00:54:46,880
Speaker 2: breaking balls. He didn't get as many whists as you

1278
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:49,879
Speaker 2: expect give him their shape and velocity, so I think

1279
00:54:49,920 --> 00:54:52,040
Speaker 2: that you know, he's he's got everything he needs to

1280
00:54:52,040 --> 00:54:53,840
Speaker 2: be a great pitcher. I think that the Yankees have

1281
00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:56,480
Speaker 2: him slaughtered a third and he's going to be He's

1282
00:54:56,520 --> 00:54:58,799
Speaker 2: gonna be fine even when Rodin and Coohl her back.

1283
00:54:58,840 --> 00:55:00,719
Speaker 2: He's in that rotation. So those are the things I

1284
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:03,319
Speaker 2: love about him. What I don't love about him, I

1285
00:55:03,520 --> 00:55:06,560
Speaker 2: just realized that he was not sitting ninety eight in

1286
00:55:06,600 --> 00:55:09,000
Speaker 2: the miners. Last year in the miners, he was sitting

1287
00:55:09,080 --> 00:55:11,480
Speaker 2: ninety six six. Then he came up to the big

1288
00:55:11,560 --> 00:55:14,959
Speaker 2: leagues and sat ninety eight off of a ninety nine,

1289
00:55:15,040 --> 00:55:18,200
Speaker 2: nine and nine and a half kind of maximum. So

1290
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:21,240
Speaker 2: he basically got to the major leagues and just started

1291
00:55:21,239 --> 00:55:26,480
Speaker 2: throwing as hard as he could. And I just wanted

1292
00:55:26,480 --> 00:55:28,200
Speaker 2: to say that that makes me a little nervous.

1293
00:55:28,680 --> 00:55:30,520
Speaker 1: All right, Well, then let's talk a little bit more

1294
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 1: about a potential bust of a guy who throws pretty hard.

1295
00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:35,840
Speaker 1: Jacob Mizerowski, who you know you've already professed your love for.

1296
00:55:35,960 --> 00:55:38,200
Speaker 1: But while you have some misgivings about him, what are they?

1297
00:55:38,719 --> 00:55:40,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, part of I'm going to tell you,

1298
00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:42,920
Speaker 3: part of it's about, like I love Chase Spurns. Part

1299
00:55:42,920 --> 00:55:45,319
Speaker 3: of it is about just costs. I mean it is

1300
00:55:45,400 --> 00:55:48,160
Speaker 3: hard to deny. Like Jacob Miserowski's very exciting, you know,

1301
00:55:48,360 --> 00:55:52,920
Speaker 3: just long delivery, good extension. He's got that big power, fastball,

1302
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:56,439
Speaker 3: ridiculous slider. But like, there are some worry stuff in here.

1303
00:55:56,960 --> 00:55:59,440
Speaker 3: Is still trying to shake some of that, like relief,

1304
00:55:59,480 --> 00:56:01,960
Speaker 3: pitcher stuff. I don't think he's completely shake that yet.

1305
00:56:02,080 --> 00:56:04,759
Speaker 3: He had a pretty alarming walk rate eleven percent. That

1306
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:07,080
Speaker 3: kind of puts him in the range of guys like

1307
00:56:07,160 --> 00:56:09,319
Speaker 3: Dylan Seed. I mean, Dylan c Like if you were

1308
00:56:09,360 --> 00:56:11,120
Speaker 3: to just look at the K and walk numbers. If

1309
00:56:11,160 --> 00:56:13,399
Speaker 3: I said thirty two percent K percentage eleven percent walk,

1310
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:15,879
Speaker 3: you'd be like Dylan zees, Like that's the same type

1311
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:20,480
Speaker 3: of stuff. His slider, as ridiculous as it is, he

1312
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:23,080
Speaker 3: throws a slider ninety four miles per hour on average,

1313
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:25,680
Speaker 3: it had a fifteen percent K percentage. You know, So

1314
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:28,640
Speaker 3: like if he is throwing it for more strikes this year,

1315
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:31,239
Speaker 3: then that might lead to some better results. Because his

1316
00:56:31,280 --> 00:56:33,359
Speaker 3: fastball is already a problem and had a thirty two

1317
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:35,080
Speaker 3: percent I think a cancer cutter.

1318
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:36,920
Speaker 2: I think that's why it doesn't get as many whiffs.

1319
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:39,120
Speaker 2: It's like ethnically a fastball.

1320
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:43,399
Speaker 3: And it sets up the velo fastball, and it sets

1321
00:56:43,440 --> 00:56:46,239
Speaker 3: that up for good strikeouts, which is great, But he

1322
00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:48,600
Speaker 3: was also worse than the second half. I don't think,

1323
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:50,839
Speaker 3: and I don't think him throwing that cutter is going

1324
00:56:50,920 --> 00:56:54,120
Speaker 3: to lead to him lowering the walk rate a whole bunch.

1325
00:56:54,239 --> 00:56:56,520
Speaker 3: But he is a super talented guy and he's still developing.

1326
00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:59,759
Speaker 3: But I just don't love the cost based on risk

1327
00:57:00,239 --> 00:57:02,600
Speaker 3: on some of the guys that I like a little bit.

1328
00:57:02,640 --> 00:57:04,919
Speaker 3: I love Emmett Shehan. I want Emmitt Shehan, I want

1329
00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 3: Chase Burns, So I think people are reaching for him.

1330
00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:09,920
Speaker 3: I think there's some volatility in his game, and clearly

1331
00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:12,279
Speaker 3: I have points where I'm trying to avoid volatility. So

1332
00:57:12,320 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 3: it's a little bit about me. But he's my bus

1333
00:57:14,160 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 3: based on his rank range.

1334
00:57:16,440 --> 00:57:18,160
Speaker 1: You know, give me a bust for you in twenty

1335
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:18,880
Speaker 1: twenty six.

1336
00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:22,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Nick Pavetta. And you know, sometimes

1337
00:57:22,600 --> 00:57:25,360
Speaker 2: we throw around some really you know, fancy numbers, and

1338
00:57:25,400 --> 00:57:27,680
Speaker 2: we create new numbers, and we create all these metrics.

1339
00:57:27,720 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 2: But you know, at the very beginning of you know,

1340
00:57:30,520 --> 00:57:33,880
Speaker 2: fantasy pitching analysis, there were a few couple of rock

1341
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 2: solid metrics that we always looked to. We looked at

1342
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:39,080
Speaker 2: batting average on balls and play. Last year, Nick Pavett

1343
00:57:39,080 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 2: had a two thirty five for his career. He's out

1344
00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:43,680
Speaker 2: of two ninety two. That's just more balls are gonna

1345
00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:46,600
Speaker 2: find grass next year. We look at strand rate. That

1346
00:57:46,640 --> 00:57:48,840
Speaker 2: means how many of the runners do leave on base

1347
00:57:49,280 --> 00:57:52,760
Speaker 2: U he left seventy nine percent on base, seventy percent

1348
00:57:52,760 --> 00:57:54,840
Speaker 2: of the league average, So he's gonna more of those

1349
00:57:54,880 --> 00:57:57,960
Speaker 2: runners are gonna score next year. In short, he basically

1350
00:57:58,080 --> 00:58:00,080
Speaker 2: got a little lucky last year. And I know he

1351
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:02,160
Speaker 2: moved to a new park and it was the first

1352
00:58:02,200 --> 00:58:04,240
Speaker 2: time he'd really been in a picture friendly park and

1353
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 2: that that helped him. But I think his numbers are

1354
00:58:07,320 --> 00:58:09,520
Speaker 2: going to look a lot more like his away numbers.

1355
00:58:09,600 --> 00:58:12,280
Speaker 2: Last year. In terms of overall he had a three

1356
00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:14,280
Speaker 2: five five y R. You could say, hey, that's not

1357
00:58:14,360 --> 00:58:17,560
Speaker 2: so bad, but he also had some months with a

1358
00:58:17,920 --> 00:58:19,400
Speaker 2: right that starts with a force. I think in the

1359
00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:21,760
Speaker 2: end he's going to end up like a three nine

1360
00:58:21,960 --> 00:58:26,360
Speaker 2: four e RA guy. It's not going to kill your

1361
00:58:26,560 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 2: your draft, but it's you're looking.

1362
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:31,560
Speaker 1: For meting too at that at that range too, because

1363
00:58:31,560 --> 00:58:34,440
Speaker 1: some of the guys we talked about around Paveta, I

1364
00:58:34,480 --> 00:58:35,840
Speaker 1: just want to go back to that grouping as Yuri

1365
00:58:35,880 --> 00:58:38,760
Speaker 1: Presnol McLain, like two of our favorite pitchers collectively.

1366
00:58:38,760 --> 00:58:41,480
Speaker 2: But you think about, like what we're talking about, what

1367
00:58:41,680 --> 00:58:45,040
Speaker 2: might be in front for McClain and in front for Uri.

1368
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:48,600
Speaker 2: You know, I think we basically just saw Nick Pavetta's

1369
00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:52,280
Speaker 2: career season. So that was you, right. I don't think

1370
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:54,520
Speaker 2: it's going to get any better going forward.

1371
00:58:54,560 --> 00:58:56,600
Speaker 1: All right? Can it get any better? For your must have?

1372
00:58:56,800 --> 00:59:00,560
Speaker 1: Ryan Peppio, I look, I listened to you last I

1373
00:59:00,600 --> 00:59:03,160
Speaker 1: made some Peppio investments. I was very happy with the return.

1374
00:59:03,760 --> 00:59:05,680
Speaker 1: Am I in for an even better twenty twenty six?

1375
00:59:06,920 --> 00:59:09,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean one of the things that's really hard

1376
00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:12,080
Speaker 2: about doing this. And you've listened to us talk about

1377
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 2: how you've got these young guys who have all this

1378
00:59:15,200 --> 00:59:18,720
Speaker 2: like upside but all this downside. You know. You heard

1379
00:59:18,720 --> 00:59:20,680
Speaker 2: me talk about how I love Misrawski, and you heard

1380
00:59:20,720 --> 00:59:22,600
Speaker 2: while I was talking about how he's worried about him,

1381
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:25,280
Speaker 2: and I I'm nodding right along with him, So I understand,

1382
00:59:25,320 --> 00:59:27,880
Speaker 2: you know. And so in the drafts, you either are

1383
00:59:27,920 --> 00:59:30,800
Speaker 2: choosing do I choose this guy with all this upside

1384
00:59:31,040 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 2: or choose this really boring old guy, And I mean

1385
00:59:34,040 --> 00:59:36,800
Speaker 2: Evaldi in this tier, it's like do I take like

1386
00:59:36,920 --> 00:59:40,240
Speaker 2: Evaldi is like right next to Cam Schlittner and Jacob Mazerowski.

1387
00:59:40,360 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 2: That's like like it's enough to give you schizophrenia. You know.

1388
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:46,320
Speaker 2: It's like what I'm gonna take. I'm either gonna take

1389
00:59:46,320 --> 00:59:47,960
Speaker 2: the most boring old guy that can give me a

1390
00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:50,200
Speaker 2: half a good season before he gets hurt, or I'm

1391
00:59:50,200 --> 00:59:52,200
Speaker 2: gonna take one of these young guys that could be

1392
00:59:52,240 --> 00:59:54,720
Speaker 2: an like win the cy young this year, you know,

1393
00:59:55,200 --> 00:59:57,160
Speaker 2: And I think that Pepio is actually just one of

1394
00:59:57,200 --> 01:00:00,000
Speaker 2: these really interesting guys that sort of has elements of both.

1395
01:00:00,520 --> 01:00:02,600
Speaker 2: You know, he didn't have the greatest season last year,

1396
01:00:02,600 --> 01:00:04,920
Speaker 2: so I'm surprised to say to hear you say like

1397
01:00:04,960 --> 01:00:06,240
Speaker 2: thanks for that, No.

1398
01:00:06,200 --> 01:00:09,560
Speaker 1: Because you know why he was solid and he was free. Yeah,

1399
01:00:09,560 --> 01:00:11,120
Speaker 1: I think that's just pretty comminations.

1400
01:00:11,160 --> 01:00:12,360
Speaker 3: Pretty free last year people did.

1401
01:00:12,480 --> 01:00:14,720
Speaker 2: People were really afraid of that ballpark going in, and

1402
01:00:14,760 --> 01:00:17,680
Speaker 2: for a good reason, it destroyed Shane bas and like

1403
01:00:18,040 --> 01:00:19,480
Speaker 2: you know, there were some other people that had some

1404
01:00:19,480 --> 01:00:21,640
Speaker 2: real trouble with that ballpark as a minor league ballpark.

1405
01:00:21,720 --> 01:00:25,120
Speaker 2: He ended up a forty first ranked starting pitcher. Now

1406
01:00:25,240 --> 01:00:29,080
Speaker 2: now he's going forty third. I think that's his floor. Like,

1407
01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:30,920
Speaker 2: I think what he just showed us last year as

1408
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:33,520
Speaker 2: a twenty eight year old was his floor, because that

1409
01:00:33,640 --> 01:00:36,440
Speaker 2: was a really bad park situation. One thing that he

1410
01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:39,480
Speaker 2: told me this year was that when he pitched, he

1411
01:00:39,480 --> 01:00:41,760
Speaker 2: would throw a ball and then he would look up

1412
01:00:41,800 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 2: at the at the ballpark cam, at the at the

1413
01:00:47,120 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 2: jumbo tron, the jumbo tron, and he would look to

1414
01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:52,280
Speaker 2: see what his pitch just did. He would look to

1415
01:00:52,280 --> 01:00:54,320
Speaker 2: see what his movements were, and he said that there

1416
01:00:54,400 --> 01:00:57,200
Speaker 2: was so much wind there, crosswind that was changing the

1417
01:00:57,200 --> 01:00:59,720
Speaker 2: way his pitches moved every year. One thing we found

1418
01:00:59,720 --> 01:01:03,200
Speaker 2: when we studied stuff Plus was Tampa Bay. Stuff Plus

1419
01:01:03,240 --> 01:01:05,640
Speaker 2: loves Tampa Bay. And it's not just because Tampa Bay

1420
01:01:05,640 --> 01:01:09,640
Speaker 2: loves stuff Plus. It's because the ballpark, the TRUP is

1421
01:01:09,720 --> 01:01:13,240
Speaker 2: like a lab. You know, it's a dome. So all

1422
01:01:13,840 --> 01:01:16,919
Speaker 2: pictures there's Stuff Plus plays up in domes because there's

1423
01:01:16,920 --> 01:01:19,960
Speaker 2: no crosswind. There's no what's my pitch going to do today,

1424
01:01:20,120 --> 01:01:23,040
Speaker 2: There's no oh gosh, like this that or the other thing.

1425
01:01:23,080 --> 01:01:25,600
Speaker 2: It's wet, it's dry, whatever it is, it's the same

1426
01:01:25,640 --> 01:01:28,560
Speaker 2: all the time. So you know he has good stuff

1427
01:01:28,800 --> 01:01:30,920
Speaker 2: and it's going to be repeatable this year in a

1428
01:01:30,960 --> 01:01:33,200
Speaker 2: way that he didn't have last year. So I think

1429
01:01:33,280 --> 01:01:35,959
Speaker 2: last year is his floor, and there's some ceiling there.

1430
01:01:36,160 --> 01:01:38,200
Speaker 2: And to have a floor of a guy who is

1431
01:01:38,240 --> 01:01:42,160
Speaker 2: basically where he's being drafted and then have ceiling beyond it,

1432
01:01:42,160 --> 01:01:44,200
Speaker 2: it's kind of one of those things where he's both

1433
01:01:44,240 --> 01:01:46,760
Speaker 2: a veteran that you know what you're getting, but also

1434
01:01:46,880 --> 01:01:48,120
Speaker 2: has a little bit of upside beyond.

1435
01:01:48,200 --> 01:01:50,840
Speaker 1: It's so weird though, because Pepio's homie Ray was actually

1436
01:01:50,880 --> 01:01:53,600
Speaker 1: a run better than his roady ra So you would

1437
01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:56,560
Speaker 1: think that with all the strangeness of that ballpark that

1438
01:01:56,600 --> 01:01:57,960
Speaker 1: it would have been harder for him, and he was

1439
01:01:58,040 --> 01:01:59,560
Speaker 1: checking in on it. I don't maybe you should check

1440
01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:02,280
Speaker 1: in on it Derby Pitch wherever he is.

1441
01:02:03,160 --> 01:02:05,160
Speaker 2: I I hear you. I mean his home run rate

1442
01:02:05,200 --> 01:02:07,680
Speaker 2: was higher, but so is it strike rate. So I

1443
01:02:07,760 --> 01:02:10,360
Speaker 2: just think that, like, if you're living that life, it's

1444
01:02:10,400 --> 01:02:12,720
Speaker 2: a little bit easier when your shitters aren't changing all

1445
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:13,600
Speaker 2: the time, right.

1446
01:02:15,520 --> 01:02:17,880
Speaker 1: For those pictures, Yeah for sure. All right, Well let's

1447
01:02:17,960 --> 01:02:19,720
Speaker 1: get out of here with your must have guy for

1448
01:02:19,760 --> 01:02:20,560
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six.

1449
01:02:20,680 --> 01:02:23,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll be quick on it. I actually had Emma

1450
01:02:23,360 --> 01:02:27,240
Speaker 3: Chihan as that. At one point I settled on Chase Burns.

1451
01:02:27,240 --> 01:02:29,200
Speaker 3: I want both of those guys. I've already talked about

1452
01:02:29,240 --> 01:02:31,920
Speaker 3: Chase Burns, but I'll just add to like I am,

1453
01:02:32,000 --> 01:02:34,000
Speaker 3: I have caveat at a lot of stuff where I'm like, oh,

1454
01:02:34,040 --> 01:02:35,480
Speaker 3: you know the build and what I'm doing, A da

1455
01:02:35,520 --> 01:02:37,800
Speaker 3: da da, just like it kind of doesn't matter to me,

1456
01:02:37,840 --> 01:02:39,440
Speaker 3: Like I just want to be invested in Chase Burns

1457
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:41,840
Speaker 3: this year, and he's coming at low of a cost

1458
01:02:41,920 --> 01:02:44,439
Speaker 3: with the high of a return that I just don't care.

1459
01:02:44,560 --> 01:02:46,680
Speaker 3: Like even if I was a psychopath and I was

1460
01:02:46,720 --> 01:02:49,160
Speaker 3: just like, I'm taking Jacob Graham, and I'm taking Blake

1461
01:02:49,200 --> 01:02:50,960
Speaker 3: Snell and Cole Reagan's and I'm taking all that. I'm

1462
01:02:51,000 --> 01:02:53,720
Speaker 3: still taking Chase Burns. I think Burns is a guy

1463
01:02:53,760 --> 01:02:54,800
Speaker 3: that you want.

1464
01:02:54,520 --> 01:02:57,440
Speaker 2: On all any build and any build.

1465
01:02:57,600 --> 01:02:59,880
Speaker 3: I'm just doing that I would actually throw like I said,

1466
01:02:59,880 --> 01:03:02,560
Speaker 3: I EVM and shehin In here is one of those

1467
01:03:02,600 --> 01:03:05,520
Speaker 3: guys as well, obviously also trying to pair them with

1468
01:03:05,560 --> 01:03:07,800
Speaker 3: some boring guys. But no matter what, in the true

1469
01:03:07,840 --> 01:03:11,120
Speaker 3: must have sense, Chase Burns of our category pictures here.

1470
01:03:11,000 --> 01:03:13,440
Speaker 1: Is the guy that I've got to have, all right, gentlemen.

1471
01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:15,600
Speaker 1: So those are the first forty five pitchers. We've got

1472
01:03:15,880 --> 01:03:19,120
Speaker 1: the second version, Part two of The Starting Pitcher Ultimate

1473
01:03:19,160 --> 01:03:21,000
Speaker 1: Guide coming out later this week, so make sure you

1474
01:03:21,040 --> 01:03:23,400
Speaker 1: check that out. Nick Pollock will be our guest Ino.

1475
01:03:23,680 --> 01:03:25,680
Speaker 1: Always great having you, man. It's so exciting to always

1476
01:03:25,680 --> 01:03:27,160
Speaker 1: talk to you about pitching. We always learned so much.

1477
01:03:27,200 --> 01:03:28,560
Speaker 1: You're one of the best in the business, if not

1478
01:03:28,600 --> 01:03:30,080
Speaker 1: the you know what, you're the best in the business.

1479
01:03:30,200 --> 01:03:32,280
Speaker 1: I don't care. I don't care, and I'll tell Nick

1480
01:03:32,320 --> 01:03:33,960
Speaker 1: Pollock to his face, but I see him that emails

1481
01:03:34,000 --> 01:03:37,000
Speaker 1: the best. You're close, number two, but again, we appreciate

1482
01:03:37,000 --> 01:03:38,440
Speaker 1: you so much making the time for us. We know

1483
01:03:38,560 --> 01:03:40,000
Speaker 1: is a very busy time of year for you when

1484
01:03:40,040 --> 01:03:42,200
Speaker 1: we want to encourage everybody also to check out the

1485
01:03:42,200 --> 01:03:45,120
Speaker 1: rest of the Ultimate Guide series over on our YouTube

1486
01:03:45,160 --> 01:03:48,120
Speaker 1: channel as well. Catch your first, second, third, short All

1487
01:03:48,160 --> 01:03:51,160
Speaker 1: in there already, outfielders in there ready starting pitcher number

1488
01:03:51,160 --> 01:03:54,400
Speaker 1: one down and one more to go. Great stuff as always, gentlemen.

1489
01:03:54,400 --> 01:03:55,760
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, but the story of the

1490
01:03:55,760 --> 01:03:57,760
Speaker 1: game goes on for EEno, Sarahs and the Welsh. I'm

1491
01:03:57,840 --> 01:04:00,760
Speaker 1: Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for

1492
01:04:00,800 --> 01:04:04,080
Speaker 1: listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast. If you

1493
01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:06,520
Speaker 1: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

1494
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Speaker 1: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify,

1495
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1496
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Speaker 1: and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com

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Speaker 1: slash Fantasy Pros MLB