1 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 1: On this episode of Each World. On Sunday, May nineteenth, 2 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: a helicopter crashed and killed Iran's president, Ibrahim Raisi and 3 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: foreign minister was Saint Amir Abdulian. They were traveling from 4 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: Iran's border with Azerbaijan after inaugurating a dam project when 5 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 1: their helicopter went down the mountainous area near the city 6 00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: of Yofa. The US State Department, in a press briefing said, quote, 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 1: we have been quite clear that Abraham Rahisi was a 8 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:38,559 Speaker 1: brutal participant in the repression of the Iranian people for 9 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: nearly four decades. Some of the world's worst human rights 10 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:46,560 Speaker 1: abuses occurred during his tenure as president, especially the human 11 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: rights abuses against the women and girls of Iran. So 12 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 1: what is next for Iran and what impact will Iran's 13 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 1: future have on the Middle East. I'm really pleased to 14 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 1: welcome my guest, Trita Pars, Executive Vice President of the 15 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:20,039 Speaker 1: Quincy Institute for Responsible state Craft. Treda, welcome and thank 16 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:20,840 Speaker 1: you for joining me. 17 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 2: On this world my pleasure. 18 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: Let me start by just asking about your own background. 19 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 1: How did you end up studying all this? 20 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,839 Speaker 2: So? I was born in Iran in the mid nineteen seventies. 21 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:38,679 Speaker 2: My father was a university professor who ended up jailed 22 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 2: twice during the time of the Shaw simply for having 23 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 2: expressed some criticism against the Shaw and then later on 24 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 2: reforded revolution. My family fled to Sweden. No one knew 25 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 2: exactly what was going to happen in the country. My 26 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 2: father had an opportunity to be a guest scholar at 27 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 2: the University of Sala in Sweden, so he took that 28 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 2: opportunity after coming out of jail the second time. While 29 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 2: we're there, the revolution happens. It takes an Islamic turn, 30 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 2: and my dad's name is actually put on the list 31 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 2: of folks that would be executed on the spot if 32 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 2: he returned, accusing him of having been a collaborator with 33 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 2: the Shaw Secret Service, which was not true. He had 34 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 2: been tortured by them. My dad does go back, however, 35 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 2: to clear his name in order to avoid the revolutionaries 36 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 2: executing a family member instead, which unfortunately was a common 37 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 2: thing at the time, and he ends up being jailed 38 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 2: again a third time, but this time in the Iatola's jail, 39 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 2: but does manage to get out of that thanks to 40 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 2: the fact that the people running the jail were actually 41 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: twenty year olds, many of them his former students, and 42 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 2: knew of his criticism of the Shaw he got out. 43 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 2: He's never been back since I grew up in Sweden. 44 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 2: That was four four and a half when this happened, 45 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:55,839 Speaker 2: So it was quite a bit of a trauma, and 46 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 2: I think it shaped my interest in politics and what 47 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 2: was happening around the world, but particularly of course in Iran. 48 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 2: And then I studied it at Johns Hopkins Sis. And 49 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 2: I wrote my dissertation on Israeli Iranian relations on the 50 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 2: Francis Fukuyama, which. 51 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 1: Is in itself could be an entire topic. I mean, 52 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 1: the complexity of that dance is kind of remarkable. Let's 53 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: go back to the immediate event that sort of attracted attention. 54 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: What do we think that we know about the helicopter 55 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 1: crash itself. 56 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 2: Well, we do know that there were three helicopters that 57 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 2: left pretty much at the same time. That the weather 58 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 2: was pretty okay at the time of them leaving, but 59 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 2: then it got really bad. Two of the helicopters made it, 60 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 2: the one with the President and the fore Minister, and 61 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 2: a few others did not. It crashed on the very 62 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 2: bad weather conditions, and the rescue workers could not even 63 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 2: locate for almost a day. By the time they got there, 64 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 2: there were no survivors. I think at this point it's 65 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 2: not entirely clear whether everyone died as a result of 66 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 2: the crash or whether they died during the freezing night 67 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 2: in the storm. At least one person seems to have 68 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:18,359 Speaker 2: survived the crash initially but died later on. Whether that 69 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 2: was also true for the president or the foreign Minister 70 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:28,359 Speaker 2: is not entirely clear. The government insists that there was 71 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 2: no foul play, that there was not an assassination but 72 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 2: rather an accident. I think a lot of evidence points 73 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 2: in that direction. But we should also be clear on 74 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 2: the fact that the government actually has an interest in 75 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 2: downplaying any rumors or speculation that it may have been 76 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 2: foul play, because particularly if it would lead to or 77 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 2: point a finger towards Israel, which otherwise the running government 78 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:02,799 Speaker 2: would be happy to blame under the current circumstances, after 79 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 2: they had an exchange of fire just a month ago 80 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 2: in which the Iranians assert that they restore the de 81 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 2: terrence against Israel if it turns out that the Israelis 82 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 2: actually were behind this attack, which again there's no evidence 83 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 2: for that would mean that the Iran's effort to restore 84 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 2: the terrence was an utter failure. Because the Israelis then 85 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 2: escalated by taking out the president and the foreign minister. 86 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:27,839 Speaker 2: This would be deeply embarrassing for the government. It would 87 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,040 Speaker 2: also put the government in a position in which they 88 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 2: would have to do something about it, which they clearly 89 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 2: do not want to do. So. I think while there 90 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 2: is no evidence at this point, at least convincing evidence 91 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:41,599 Speaker 2: that there was any foul play, we should also be 92 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,480 Speaker 2: clear that this time around the government has an interest 93 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 2: in playing down any speculation about foul play rather than 94 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 2: playing it up, which is perhaps the reverse case under 95 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 2: normal circumstances. 96 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,840 Speaker 1: But of course, if I understand it correctly, this is 97 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 1: a forty five year old helicopter. 98 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:03,919 Speaker 2: It was It was an American helicopter bought by the 99 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 2: Iranians towards the end of the Shaw's reign. Most of 100 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:14,599 Speaker 2: Iran's fleet are old American helicopters and airplanes, and because 101 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 2: of US sanctions, they have not been able to service them. 102 00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:19,359 Speaker 2: This is part of the reason why the Iranians have 103 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 2: probably the highest rate of plane crashes. As part of 104 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 2: the Iran nuclear deal. Boeing was actually supposed to service 105 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 2: those planes. But Boeing, as I understand, and made a 106 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 2: trip to Iran in the midst of those talks, looked 107 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 2: at the planes that decided that it refused to do 108 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:41,479 Speaker 2: so because if it serviced those planes, it would be 109 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 2: liable for whether they would crash, and it was not 110 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 2: willing to take that risk because the planes were in 111 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 2: such a bad shape. 112 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:51,960 Speaker 1: So they're flying the number two guy in the country 113 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: around and a forty five year old plane with bad 114 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 1: spare parts. 115 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 2: They're flying everyone around with those circumstances. Is not just 116 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 2: the number two guy. 117 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 1: Now, I think it's helpful because it's complicated for Americans. 118 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 1: The president's actually not the top person. The top person 119 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: is the supreme leader, who is always I guess an 120 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 1: iatola by definition because it's a religious theocracy. But can 121 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 1: you walk through a little bit of that. 122 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 2: Given the fact that his title is supreme, perhaps he 123 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 2: shouldn't be that difficult for us to understand that he 124 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 2: is the top guy. But they have a system in 125 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 2: which they do have a president, and at times, I 126 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 2: think in Washington we have tried to downplay the role 127 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 2: of the president as if he has no influence at all, 128 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 2: I think that is an exaggeration. I think you're absolutely correct. 129 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 2: The president is not the top person. The Supreme Leader 130 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 2: clearly is. But the presidents have actually at times been 131 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 2: very decisive. If you take a look at Mahmatkotemi, the 132 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 2: reformist president, who constantly clashed with the Supreme Leader, but 133 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 2: with the same ferocity, for instance, that Ahmadinejad did later on, 134 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 2: and then you had Rohani coming afterwards, who tried to 135 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 2: work with the Supreme Leader. But it was very much 136 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 2: thanks to Rohani that Vanians really went in the direction 137 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 2: of nuclear negotiations with the United States. So take the 138 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 2: presidents out of the picture and you would actually see 139 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 2: that they actually did have an impact, but they don't 140 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 2: have the decisive impact or the ultimate impact as the 141 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 2: Supreme Leader does, because at the end of the day, 142 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 2: at most the number two. In the case of Raisi, however, 143 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 2: I think we have to be clear that he had 144 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 2: very little impact by design. He was the pick of 145 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 2: the Supreme Leader because the Supreme Leader did not want 146 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 2: to have another president with the will of his own, 147 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 2: with an agenda of his own, with a mind of 148 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 2: his own. He wanted a pliant conservative, and that's what 149 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 2: he got in Raisi. That's why it's really difficult to 150 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 2: pinpoint any particular policy as of in which he was 151 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 2: the driving force of it, and that without him, those 152 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 2: policies would not have been pursued. For instance, if you 153 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 2: put a hypothetical in front of us and say that 154 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 2: what if Rohani, the previous president, had died in a 155 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 2: helicopter crash, I think that would very likely have ended 156 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 2: the nuclear negotiations because it was a critical force behind that. 157 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 2: But there is no policy you can point to in 158 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 2: which you can say, because Racy is now out of 159 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 2: the picture, that policy will no longer continue. 160 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:54,199 Speaker 1: Is the Ayatola cominy committed to getting nuclear weapons and 161 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 1: therefore opposed to negotiations? What was the tension between the two. 162 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:03,319 Speaker 2: The tension is not necessarily whether Kamene wants to get 163 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:07,320 Speaker 2: nuclear weapons from Wuhani didn't. In fact, this will probably 164 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 2: be quite surprising to American ears, but a lot of 165 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 2: people in Iran right now view Khamene as being the 166 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 2: main obstacle for them weaponizing their nuclear program. There's a 167 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 2: very strong, growing group of people there who believe that 168 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,960 Speaker 2: with Trump walking out of the nuclear deal, Biden failing 169 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 2: to go back in it, and Yran still having all 170 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 2: of those sanctions on it, and given a new geopolitical 171 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 2: situation in which the United States is tied up in Gaza, 172 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 2: tied up in Ukraine, tied up in Taiwan, Iran actually 173 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:41,439 Speaker 2: should weaponize. But the person that is the biggest obstacle 174 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 2: to that in this assessment is actually Kamene himself, who 175 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 2: strongly opposes weaponization. I think the Irani has really pursued 176 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 2: a nuclear program as a bargaining chip with the United States. 177 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 2: They need the energy aspect of it, and that program 178 00:10:56,640 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 2: was already started under the time of the shop the weaponization. 179 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 2: As a comparison, the Pakistanis went from nothing to a 180 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 2: nuclear weapon in nine and a half years. The Iranians 181 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 2: have had a nuclear program since nineteen sixty eight, much 182 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 2: thanks to the United States Atoms for Peace program and 183 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:19,839 Speaker 2: the efforts by Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld in the 184 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:24,679 Speaker 2: nineteen seventies to sell Yvonne Westinghouse reactors, if the Yranians 185 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 2: really wanted, really really were committed to a nuclear weapon 186 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 2: in the same way as the Pakistanis were, in which 187 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 2: they said we rather eat grasp but we will have 188 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 2: a nuclear weapon. One has to explain how come they've 189 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 2: managed to have a nuclear program since nineteen sixty eight 190 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,600 Speaker 2: and still not weaponized it. So I think their calculations 191 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:45,000 Speaker 2: are more complex. It doesn't mean that there aren't people 192 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 2: there that don't want it. It doesn't mean that there 193 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,719 Speaker 2: aren't factors that may not push them towards getting it 194 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 2: in a very bad scenario on my view. But it's 195 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 2: more complex than thinking that they're dead set on getting 196 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 2: it and that the only thing that could stop them 197 00:11:57,559 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 2: is just making sure that they don't have access to 198 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 2: uranium et cetera, et cetera for. 199 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 1: The purpose of a limited program. They have more than 200 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 1: enough access, don't they. 201 00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 2: At this point following Trump leaving the Iran nuclear Deal. 202 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 2: During the nuclear deal, the Iranias never had above three 203 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 2: hundred kilos of lower rich uranium on their own soil. 204 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 2: That was part of the deal. In fact, they kept 205 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 2: themselves below two fifty. They need twelve hundred kilos of 206 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 2: low and rich uranium that they need to re enrich 207 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,160 Speaker 2: several times, all the way above ninety percent to be 208 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 2: able to have enough material for one bomb. And that's 209 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 2: assuming that everything goes well. Which at the first round 210 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 2: it probably won't. Now they have several thousands not only 211 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:46,080 Speaker 2: of lower richeranium, they have twenty percent in richeranium, and 212 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 2: they have also now a small but very crucial stockpile 213 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 2: of sixty percent in rich uranium. So they're much much 214 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 2: closer to having the material for a weapon than they 215 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:02,440 Speaker 2: were during the JCPOA. During the JCPA, they would never 216 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 2: be closer than a full year away from having the 217 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 2: material for a nuclear weapon with a combination of several 218 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,680 Speaker 2: different factors. Currently, the assessment of the US intelligence, at 219 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 2: least what is out publicly known, is that there are 220 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 2: about eight days away. If they make a decision to 221 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 2: have the material for a bomb, the ready material for 222 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 2: the bomb, they'll have it in eight. 223 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 1: Days wow, which is virtually nothing. 224 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 2: Virtually nothing. Now. Of course, having the material and having 225 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 2: a bomb is two different things. They would probably still 226 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,080 Speaker 2: be a year to two years away from having a 227 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 2: bomb once they have the material, which is only eight 228 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 2: days away. But it is nevertheless a very very concerning situation, 229 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 2: and one frankly, and you and I may disagree on it, 230 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 2: but we would not be in this situation if the 231 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 2: JCPA was in place. 232 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 1: I don't know enough to be authority, But I gather 233 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 1: that you believe that they would have deliberately followed a 234 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 1: very limited program man would have been willing to be 235 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 1: held accountable. 236 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 2: Well. For the two and a half years or so 237 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 2: that the US was in the deal, they lived up 238 00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 2: to the agreement fully. For another eleven or so months 239 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:18,840 Speaker 2: after Trump left, they still stuck to the deal, and 240 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 2: after that they started to violate key provisions of the deal, 241 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 2: such as the stockpile, the level of enrichment, etc. But 242 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:32,479 Speaker 2: there were fourteen reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency, 243 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 2: which is essentially the referee on this fourteen consecutive reports 244 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 2: that stated that the Iranians are living up to all 245 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 2: of the provisions of the deal. Twice did even the 246 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 2: Trump administration certified. The Trump administration State Department certified that 247 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 2: the Iranians were sticking to the dealer. We will never know, 248 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 2: of course, whether they would have done so indefinitely, but 249 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 2: the track record in the beginning was actually a very 250 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 2: promising one, and perhaps surprise a lot of people in 251 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 2: Washington who thought that they would never live up to 252 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 2: it if they had violated it without the US having 253 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 2: first left. Given the level of inspections we would have 254 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 2: found out within twenty four hours, and we would have 255 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 2: had the majority, vast majority, probably including the P five 256 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 2: on our side in terms of repercussions for the Iranians 257 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 2: if they violated the deal. That was a key reason 258 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 2: as to why I think they lived up to the 259 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 2: deal as well. 260 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: Given their hesitation and given the almost sixty year track 261 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 1: record and not quite getting there, how do you think 262 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 1: their own thinking is evolving in terms of if it's 263 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: not a bargaining chip, what does it become. 264 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 2: That's a great question, because that is kind of the 265 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 2: situation they're in right now. I think they really, I 266 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 2: mean they need a nuclear program. I mean, put yourself 267 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 2: in their shoes. They have all of this gas, and 268 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 2: they have all of this oil, but they're running out 269 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 2: of oil because of sanctions. Also, they cannot sell all 270 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 2: to a lot of different places. We have been telling 271 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 2: a lot of other countries you've got to think about 272 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 2: your future once the oil runs out, and you need 273 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 2: to make sure that you have an economy that can stand. 274 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 2: This is what the Shaw started in nineteen sixty eight. 275 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 2: He wanted to make sure that he would sell the 276 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 2: oil and the gas externally and then use nuclear energy 277 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 2: internally makes a lot of financial and energy security sense. 278 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:32,680 Speaker 2: So just as much as we don't want to be 279 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 2: dependent on oil, the Iranians, if they are in a 280 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 2: position to be able to avoid that, it is logical 281 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 2: for them to avoid that. Now, on top of that, 282 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 2: because of the fact that they did experiment with things 283 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 2: that are much closer to weaponization and they lost the 284 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 2: confidence of the international community, they did not live up 285 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 2: to all of the aspects of the NPT, they were 286 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 2: put on their sanctions, and then the JCPA negotiation was 287 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 2: essentially a negotiated period in which they would have to 288 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:07,240 Speaker 2: prove their positive non desire to go in the military 289 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 2: direction before all sanctions could be fully lifted. They ended 290 00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 2: up using the nuclear escalation as a counter Tos's sanctions escalation. 291 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:20,360 Speaker 2: Just as much as we view the sanctions as our 292 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 2: leverage in that negotiation, they view the number of centrifuges 293 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 2: the stockpile as part of their leverage in the negotiation. 294 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 2: But what's the value of that if there isn't a negotiation. 295 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 2: What's the value of that? If you are in the 296 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:38,640 Speaker 2: current position they're in, in which they believe, rightly or wrongly, 297 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:44,119 Speaker 2: that the US is incapable of providing sustained sanctions relief 298 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 2: to you because of domestic political reasons here in the 299 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 2: United States. Even if a president signs a deal, the 300 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,399 Speaker 2: next one will tear it up and as a result, 301 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 2: the US cannot provide sustain That means that suddenly a 302 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 2: deal with the US is no longer particularly attractive, and 303 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 2: then you're sitting on all this leverage that you cannot use. 304 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 2: And that's part of the reason why I think for 305 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 2: the last year you're seeing that the growth in their 306 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:14,400 Speaker 2: program has kind of started to taper off, because what's 307 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:17,159 Speaker 2: the point of getting that close to a bomb if 308 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 2: you're not going to weaponize and you're not going to 309 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:21,680 Speaker 2: be able to use it as a leverage. In fact, 310 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 2: if you get too close to a bomb, you actually 311 00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:28,159 Speaker 2: undermine your own leverage if there is a future negotiation, 312 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 2: because the United States is likely not going to negotiate 313 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:35,320 Speaker 2: with you if you have that much leverage. It's a 314 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 2: calibration that is very imprecise. It depends not just on 315 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 2: how much they do, but also what the thinking and 316 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 2: calculations and political outlook is here in the United States 317 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,199 Speaker 2: with future presidents. So in some ways they're stuck with 318 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:53,159 Speaker 2: a nuclear program, it's larger than it should be, larger 319 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:55,880 Speaker 2: what they needed to be, not large enough for them 320 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 2: to actually have a bomb. And again we can go 321 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 2: into why there actually would be a lot of nets 322 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 2: for them to have a bomb, but also perhaps too 323 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:05,880 Speaker 2: large to be able to be used as that leverage 324 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 2: as they initially thought. Because take a look at one 325 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,479 Speaker 2: thing that I think is really fascinating. Back in the 326 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 2: Obama days, the Iranians were approaching fifteen hundred kilos of 327 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 2: LU and the media here was talking about it as 328 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 2: if they were reaching some sort of point of no return, 329 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 2: as if they were about to get a nuclear wipeout. 330 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,120 Speaker 2: They have tens of thousands of kilos of it now 331 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 2: of higher enrich uranium, not tens of thousands of the 332 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 2: higher ridge, but they have so much enriched uranium now 333 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 2: that they're much much closer and we're almost not talking 334 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 2: about it at all. So suddenly, if they were using 335 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:43,000 Speaker 2: it as a scarecrow to get negotiations and have leverage 336 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:45,640 Speaker 2: in the negotiation, it is not particularly effective right. 337 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 1: Now, given all this sort of tension about what they're 338 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:52,800 Speaker 1: going to do, how they're going to do it. How 339 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:57,239 Speaker 1: does the death of President Raizia affect all that and 340 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 1: what will the circumstances be in which they pick a successor. 341 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:07,119 Speaker 2: So on the first part of your question. Because Racy 342 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,840 Speaker 2: was not decisive on this file, it does not have 343 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 2: an impact on that file directly. This is not affecting 344 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 2: Iran's nuclear policy. However, because of what his death may 345 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:26,879 Speaker 2: mean for the future broader trajectory of Iran internally and externally, 346 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 2: it may end up having an effect on the nuclear 347 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:36,639 Speaker 2: program depending on who comes next. Much indicates that Commenee 348 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:40,159 Speaker 2: wanted Racy to be the next Supreme Leader and that 349 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 2: there was a lot of conservative backing for that. There 350 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 2: were other contenders as well. Now that is not going 351 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,360 Speaker 2: to happen. Now they also have to pick a new president. 352 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 2: The population by and large have stopped participating in the 353 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 2: elections because they have lost faith that change can come 354 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 2: through the ballot box. This loss of faith is directly 355 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 2: related to the fact that the Conservatives have increasingly This 356 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 2: allowed non conservatives to even run in the last election 357 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 2: when Raisi was running, it was just a few Conservatives 358 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 2: and one token reformers that was allowed to run, and 359 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 2: election participation dropped to forty seven percent, whereas in previous elections. 360 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:26,879 Speaker 2: The Iranians had participation rate in the presidential elections between 361 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 2: seventy five and eighty percent, as a dramatic loss because 362 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 2: people lost faith in that. In the parliamentary elections that 363 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:37,879 Speaker 2: were held just a few weeks ago, participation was forty 364 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:45,439 Speaker 2: two percent nationwide, seven percent in Tehran seven percent. And 365 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 2: it tells you something about you know, people don't think 366 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,360 Speaker 2: it matters any longer, and they've given up on that, 367 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 2: and that's again because they were not offered real choices. 368 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 2: Now there's some pressure from conservatives and as well as 369 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 2: from others of course, that they have to allow a 370 00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:08,719 Speaker 2: much more broader set of candidates to participate. I personally 371 00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,160 Speaker 2: don't think that is likely to happen. I think what 372 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,639 Speaker 2: you may end up seeing is that it will be 373 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 2: broader in the sense that there will be viable moderate 374 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:24,160 Speaker 2: conservatives and viable hardline conservatives. But that is the spectrum. 375 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,920 Speaker 2: In the last election, it was just hardline conservatives, not 376 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:31,680 Speaker 2: even moderate conservatives, which I don't know if that will 377 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:35,480 Speaker 2: be enough to generate any enthusiasm in the public to 378 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 2: think that they actually have a real choice. It may 379 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:41,200 Speaker 2: even in twenty thirteen, by the way, there was almost 380 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 2: no energy in the presidential campaign until the last seven 381 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:50,480 Speaker 2: to ten days. Then suddenly something changed and Rohani, who 382 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:52,919 Speaker 2: most people didn't think that much of, suddenly managed to 383 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,480 Speaker 2: get a tremendous amount of support just in the last 384 00:22:55,520 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 2: couple of days. Something similar could potentially happen, but we 385 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 2: simply don't know. But if that happened, let's say that 386 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,479 Speaker 2: you actually do have a bit of a shakeup and 387 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:10,400 Speaker 2: you get at least some moderate conservatives in it could 388 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:15,399 Speaker 2: have an impact because right now Iran has gone deep 389 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:20,879 Speaker 2: into the direction of allying itself with Russia and China, 390 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,440 Speaker 2: and while there is strong support for that amongst conservatives, 391 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 2: there are also others who believe that closing the door 392 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 2: entirely on the West may not be the smartest thing 393 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 2: to do. Back when you were in Congress, mister speaker, 394 00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 2: I remember the debate that was held in the United 395 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:44,240 Speaker 2: States about the sanctions that the Clinton administration imposed on Iran, 396 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:48,120 Speaker 2: you know, the Executive Orders ninety four ninety five. Some 397 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,439 Speaker 2: of the arguments in the debate then not much of 398 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 2: a debate, but a couple of editorials that were written 399 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 2: about it warned that if we went down that path 400 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 2: of just sanctioning Iran. Eventually we would push Iran into 401 00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,320 Speaker 2: the arms of Russia and China. That may not at 402 00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 2: the time have been a very effective argument, because Russia 403 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,359 Speaker 2: and China were not at all what they are today. 404 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,160 Speaker 2: But I think roughly thirty years later we can see 405 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,680 Speaker 2: that that argument actually proved to be entirely true. 406 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,200 Speaker 1: You do now have sort of a de facto alliance. 407 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 2: Well the facto is the key word there, because there 408 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:26,640 Speaker 2: is no treaty alliance between them, but they are acting 409 00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 2: as allies, and they're acting as allies largely because of 410 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:36,119 Speaker 2: an opposition to the United States or a US led order. 411 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,680 Speaker 2: For instance. I do not personally believe that the Iranians 412 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 2: would be so deeply supporting Russia in Ukraine if the 413 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 2: JCPA was still alive, because they would actually have had 414 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,320 Speaker 2: something to lose at this point. They at least their 415 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:52,359 Speaker 2: calculation is that they don't have much to lose. There's 416 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,680 Speaker 2: no trade with the US, there's no trade with Europe. 417 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 2: The Europeans stopped buying Iranian oil, gas, nothing, even when 418 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 2: the JCPA was still technically in place. But Trump was 419 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 2: there and they stopped those sales. So the only purchases 420 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 2: of Irani know at this point is essentially China and 421 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,480 Speaker 2: the Ukraine War gave the Irani's opportunities to strengthen their 422 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:17,879 Speaker 2: ties with Russia. So as much as this is a 423 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 2: regime that has a tremendous amount of ideological facades, and 424 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 2: you know, I'm not dismissing that their ideology is important, 425 00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:30,200 Speaker 2: it is also very reality politique oriented, and real politique, 426 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,119 Speaker 2: given the circumstances that they have right now, has pushed 427 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,800 Speaker 2: them in this direction, a direction I don't think necessarily 428 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:52,159 Speaker 2: would have been their choice. 429 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 1: Explain the real politique of their support for the Huthis 430 00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:03,240 Speaker 1: and the Hesibala and Homa, and their continuous support for 431 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:07,080 Speaker 1: faring missiles at American bases in American ships. I mean, 432 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:09,480 Speaker 1: at one level, that's pretty. 433 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:14,440 Speaker 2: Aggressive, certainly, so we do need to differentiate all between 434 00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:19,680 Speaker 2: these different organizations. Hespola is of course the closest partner 435 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,800 Speaker 2: Iran has. The Irani has played a key role in 436 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:28,160 Speaker 2: creating Hezbola in nineteen eighty two. This was primarily born 437 00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,239 Speaker 2: out of the fact that when the Iranians had their 438 00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 2: revolution in nineteen seventy nine and the revolutionary government took over, 439 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:40,160 Speaker 2: like many other revolutionary governments. Their number one agenda point 440 00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 2: was to spread their revolution. So Iran in the nineteen 441 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:48,720 Speaker 2: eighties was this regime change oriented country. It wanted to overthrow, 442 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:54,120 Speaker 2: particularly the monarchies in the region, and it had next 443 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,800 Speaker 2: to zero success. Of course, the only area, and we'd 444 00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 2: had some success was countries with law Shia minorities or majorities. 445 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:06,080 Speaker 2: Lebanon of course is one of them. And the Iranian 446 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,680 Speaker 2: relationship with Hesbola or with Lebanon, of course goes back 447 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:14,280 Speaker 2: centuries because of the Shia ties, and Yvan invested in that. 448 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:17,960 Speaker 2: They did the same thing in Bahrain, but utterly unsuccessful. 449 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 2: They did the same thing in Iraq, and that was 450 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:23,320 Speaker 2: unsuccessful until the United States overthrew Saddam Hussein, and it 451 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 2: turned out that the very Shia politicians and movements that 452 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:29,280 Speaker 2: Yvon had invested in for decades became the winners of 453 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:35,359 Speaker 2: that war. But with Hezbola, it's a very very tight relationship, 454 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,480 Speaker 2: and it started off with their desire to spread their revolution, 455 00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:41,840 Speaker 2: which ultimately, of course was unsuccessful, but ended up becoming 456 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 2: a strong partner with Iran. Relationship with Huti's is much 457 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,440 Speaker 2: much newer. It's no more than ten fifteen years old. 458 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,240 Speaker 2: And it became partly as a result of Ivan's rivalry 459 00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,159 Speaker 2: with Saudi Arabia, in which the Saudis have been supporting 460 00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:59,920 Speaker 2: Baluchi separatists in Ivan's Baluchistan region, including al Qaeda relay 461 00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,720 Speaker 2: organizations there, and the Irani has invested in the Hutis. 462 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,720 Speaker 2: What's very different between them and the Jutis, and I 463 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,000 Speaker 2: think this is between Hutis and Hezbola. Hez Bola would 464 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:19,760 Speaker 2: never act in two areas without clear coordination with Iran, 465 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 2: any major attack escalation on Israel and any major attack 466 00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:29,440 Speaker 2: on the United States. The Hutis, however, do their own thing. 467 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:34,520 Speaker 2: They publicly criticize Iran. They claim that yvon is not 468 00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:38,960 Speaker 2: being tough enough against Israel, and US intelligence has picked 469 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,440 Speaker 2: up several times that Vanians are telling the Huties to 470 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,040 Speaker 2: do X or not do X, and the Hutis do 471 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 2: it anyways. So they're a very independent organization. And again 472 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,040 Speaker 2: it goes back to the fact that this is a 473 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,040 Speaker 2: much newer relationship. It's not at all with the same 474 00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:56,360 Speaker 2: depth as you have with as well. I frankly don't 475 00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 2: think even if Ivani has really really wanted to press 476 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 2: the Huties to stop the tax against ships, in the 477 00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:03,960 Speaker 2: Red Sea that the Hoodies would actually listen to Iran 478 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,120 Speaker 2: on that front as well as a different story. Hamas 479 00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:10,320 Speaker 2: is also a different story. Iran and Hamas's relationship was 480 00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,720 Speaker 2: actually very negative from the outset. Hamas comes out of 481 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:18,800 Speaker 2: the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, a very strong Sunni fundamentalist organization 482 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:22,200 Speaker 2: that had a very negative view of Shia and of 483 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:28,000 Speaker 2: Shia Iran. Moreover, Hamas supported Saddam Hussein in Saddam Hussein's 484 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:31,320 Speaker 2: war with Iran in the nineteen eighties. The only thing 485 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,840 Speaker 2: that actually brought Hamas in Iran closer together was the 486 00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:38,760 Speaker 2: peace process, the Oslo process, in which both Hamas As 487 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,080 Speaker 2: a rejectionist organization in Iran, would be left out, and 488 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:43,960 Speaker 2: they saw it as a threat to their own power. 489 00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 2: That brought them together, but it's been a tense relationship 490 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,800 Speaker 2: and they had many fallouts. One of the major fallouts 491 00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:53,920 Speaker 2: that they had or the war in Syria, in which 492 00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:57,480 Speaker 2: Iran was supporting Asad and Hamas was supporting the opposition, 493 00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,880 Speaker 2: because the core of the opposition in Syria was coming 494 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 2: from the Brotherhood as well from the Muslim Brotherhood as well. 495 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 2: They only made up a couple of years ago I 496 00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 2: think it was in twenty seventeen. In twenty eighteen. What 497 00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,959 Speaker 2: Yran has done with these organizations, however, is that they 498 00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,400 Speaker 2: have armed and trained them. Part of the reason why 499 00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 2: they're much much more effective firing forces and much more 500 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:22,880 Speaker 2: technologically advanced with the major missiles and other forms of 501 00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,720 Speaker 2: weaponry is thanks to the support that the Iranians have 502 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:29,520 Speaker 2: provided at very very low cost compared to many other 503 00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,800 Speaker 2: types of operations that could have taken place. What is 504 00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:36,200 Speaker 2: binding them all together ultimately is that they don't want 505 00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,880 Speaker 2: to see a Middle East that is dominated by the 506 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 2: United States or Israel. So this is why they're calling 507 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:48,160 Speaker 2: themselves the resistance from the resisting US domination in the region, 508 00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:53,320 Speaker 2: Israel's occupation of Palestine. And what's also fascinating in all 509 00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:57,040 Speaker 2: of this is increasingly in Washington, there's also been this 510 00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,600 Speaker 2: thinking that, hold on, what is the value of US 511 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 2: dominating the Middle East? Anyways? If, for instance, many in 512 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:07,600 Speaker 2: Washington believe that China is the real challenge, why are 513 00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 2: we continuing to waste a lot of energy trying to 514 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:13,880 Speaker 2: dominate the Middle East. There's an interesting dynamic in which 515 00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:18,080 Speaker 2: at times I find actually the US side being far 516 00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:22,680 Speaker 2: more confused about what it actual strategic objectives are than 517 00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:25,040 Speaker 2: the Resistant. From the Resist has a very clear idea 518 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:26,479 Speaker 2: what their strategic objectives are. 519 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,160 Speaker 1: I think that is a very mild critique of the 520 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:37,000 Speaker 1: level of confusion which Washington currently has to suggest an 521 00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,680 Speaker 1: orderly dialogue that doesn't currently exist. One of the questions 522 00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,080 Speaker 1: I've always tried to ask people who know a great 523 00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:46,600 Speaker 1: deal more than I do about Iran. When the Iranian 524 00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:51,360 Speaker 1: parliament chant death to Israel and death to America, how 525 00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:52,880 Speaker 1: are we supposed to interpret that? 526 00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:58,040 Speaker 2: On the one hand, it is a clear declaration of 527 00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:03,160 Speaker 2: hostile intent, and we should not be little that or 528 00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,920 Speaker 2: take it lightly. On the other hand, we should also 529 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:09,600 Speaker 2: not pursue a foreign policy based on what slogans others use. 530 00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,560 Speaker 2: We should follow up foreign policy that is based on 531 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,959 Speaker 2: our interest and make sure that we're maximizing our interests 532 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,680 Speaker 2: and not let the other side decide what we do 533 00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:22,360 Speaker 2: by deciding to do the opposite of what they want. 534 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:24,840 Speaker 2: And I think oftentimes we have ended up in the 535 00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:28,480 Speaker 2: latter category. We're reacting someone doesn't like us in the 536 00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:31,600 Speaker 2: Middle East, so we're opposing them without actually questioning should 537 00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 2: we be there? Do we have an interest here? Are 538 00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,720 Speaker 2: we sacrificing the American life for something that actually is 539 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,320 Speaker 2: of particular value to us? Is this a vital interest? 540 00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:42,280 Speaker 2: Those are the core questions that I think are rarely 541 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,720 Speaker 2: being asked in Washington. Instead, we're being very reactive, and 542 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:48,800 Speaker 2: it's easy to be reactive. You know, the huties chance 543 00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:52,360 Speaker 2: death to America as well. But what is reality? Reality 544 00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:56,760 Speaker 2: is that before the Saudi invasion of attack on Yemen, 545 00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:00,880 Speaker 2: guests who are the fact that partners were in Yemen 546 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:05,040 Speaker 2: against al Qaeda? It was the Hooties, the Houties was 547 00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 2: the strongest force against al Qaeda. And reality is this 548 00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,720 Speaker 2: The Houties had never attacked the United States. Now, they 549 00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,120 Speaker 2: may have it shot at some ships at this point, 550 00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:16,880 Speaker 2: but back then they never attacked the United States. They 551 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:20,200 Speaker 2: were focused on very interest in Yemen, and they wanted 552 00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:23,160 Speaker 2: to get al Qaeda out. Al Qaeda killed three thousand 553 00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,720 Speaker 2: Americans on nine to eleven. Al Qaeda attacked our embassies 554 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:31,000 Speaker 2: in Africa. We ended up siding with the Saudist beating 555 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,840 Speaker 2: up the Hooties and setting aside the ones that actually, 556 00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:38,520 Speaker 2: beyond slogans, actually killed Americans. That's why I think your 557 00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,360 Speaker 2: question is a good one, because we have to get 558 00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:43,640 Speaker 2: into the space in which we're not basing our foreign 559 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,360 Speaker 2: policy on the slogans of others. 560 00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:52,320 Speaker 1: You have a very subtle and sophisticated knowledge of the region, 561 00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:55,400 Speaker 1: and I'd like to invite you to think about maybe 562 00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:59,720 Speaker 1: doing a podcast sometime were we sort of just put 563 00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,240 Speaker 1: up a mental map of the region and go through 564 00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:05,960 Speaker 1: all the different people who hate and try to kill 565 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:10,360 Speaker 1: each other for reasons that have nothing to do with 566 00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,600 Speaker 1: the United States or the West. Some of them are 567 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:18,200 Speaker 1: eight hundred or thousand year old inheritance, others are personality, 568 00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,880 Speaker 1: others are geographic. And you know, in a place like 569 00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:28,560 Speaker 1: Iraq or Syria, the number of threads of hostility and 570 00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,600 Speaker 1: of self identity and of self interest that are so 571 00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:36,840 Speaker 1: astonishingly complex, and we try to summarize them all for 572 00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:38,280 Speaker 1: three minutes on the evening TV. 573 00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:42,480 Speaker 2: You're absolutely right, that would be an interesting exercise. Just 574 00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:44,520 Speaker 2: let me know when you want to do it. But 575 00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:47,359 Speaker 2: I think the final outcome of that, if we were 576 00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:53,759 Speaker 2: to just cut to the chase, is to conclude that 577 00:34:53,800 --> 00:35:00,160 Speaker 2: we really have committed a major mistake by entangling ourselves 578 00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:03,680 Speaker 2: in conflicts that have nothing to do with us, that 579 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:08,520 Speaker 2: do not touch our interests, doesn't matter to us who 580 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:12,239 Speaker 2: is in control in this or that government. We don't 581 00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:16,640 Speaker 2: need to have that level of influence or control over 582 00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:22,680 Speaker 2: region that whose strategic significance has significantly dropped in the 583 00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,279 Speaker 2: last forty years, because the importance of oil is not 584 00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:27,759 Speaker 2: at all what it was forty years ago. The United 585 00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:31,680 Speaker 2: States is self reliant, self sufficient on all at this point. 586 00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:34,319 Speaker 2: Doesn't mean that oil isn't important. It certainly will be 587 00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:37,200 Speaker 2: in the future as well, but not to the point 588 00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:40,200 Speaker 2: in which we need to entangle ourselves and everyone else's 589 00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:45,480 Speaker 2: conflict and make their conflicts our conflicts. And that's the 590 00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:47,600 Speaker 2: part that I think, at a minimum we have to 591 00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:48,360 Speaker 2: stop trying. 592 00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:53,440 Speaker 1: As you know, the supremely riot Eli Commune is now 593 00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,400 Speaker 1: eighty five the longest serving head of the state in 594 00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,040 Speaker 1: the Middle East, and at least by some reports and 595 00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:03,279 Speaker 1: declining health, what do you think happens in terms of 596 00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:04,759 Speaker 1: his successor. 597 00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:09,880 Speaker 2: So the secession in Iran is going to be probably 598 00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:16,759 Speaker 2: the most important event in the Islamic Republic's history. The 599 00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:20,200 Speaker 2: first one was, of course, after Komeni died in nineteen 600 00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:26,600 Speaker 2: eighty nine. That was obviously extremely challenging for them, given 601 00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:30,840 Speaker 2: that Komeni essentially an interview had reached the status of 602 00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:35,080 Speaker 2: a mom essentially a prophet. But the second secession in 603 00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:39,960 Speaker 2: some ways may be trickier because the type of uniting 604 00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:46,440 Speaker 2: all authoritative person that Komiani was for that system hominy 605 00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:51,200 Speaker 2: hasn't failed to be so the system is much more divided, 606 00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:55,080 Speaker 2: much more at its own throat than it was in 607 00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:58,000 Speaker 2: nineteen eighty nine. So this is going to be the 608 00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,600 Speaker 2: biggest challenge. This is part of the reason and why 609 00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:05,160 Speaker 2: I think Kameny himself had settled for Aisi because he 610 00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:08,520 Speaker 2: was an uncontroversial figure and it would be easier for 611 00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:13,239 Speaker 2: most factions to probably find something acceptable with him, and 612 00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,680 Speaker 2: they wanted everything to be under control. That's part of 613 00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:19,480 Speaker 2: the reason why I personally am skeptical that at least 614 00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,960 Speaker 2: the leading faction in Yvon had anything to do with 615 00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:25,560 Speaker 2: his death, because this has been a big blow to 616 00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:29,800 Speaker 2: them the next person. Of course, another reason as to 617 00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:33,280 Speaker 2: why it's so important. He's likely going to live another 618 00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,600 Speaker 2: thirty forty years, which is kind of similar to the 619 00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:38,759 Speaker 2: situation you have with Saudi Arabia. This is part of 620 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,640 Speaker 2: the reason why MBS. You know, there's a lot of 621 00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:44,120 Speaker 2: stake with MBS, because he's going to be king for 622 00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:46,000 Speaker 2: forty years. All of the other kings that have come 623 00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:48,879 Speaker 2: in Saudi Arabia for the last twenty years were very 624 00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:52,080 Speaker 2: old when they became king, and as a result, no 625 00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:54,480 Speaker 2: one expected him to last more than five to ten years. 626 00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:58,640 Speaker 2: With NBS, he's going to last forty years, if not more, unless, 627 00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:01,040 Speaker 2: of course he gets killed by someone. The same is 628 00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:02,960 Speaker 2: true for the next Supreme Leader of Iran. So you 629 00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:06,719 Speaker 2: can really set the direction of Iran in a very 630 00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:11,560 Speaker 2: very decisive way, much more important than these presidential elections. This, 631 00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:14,799 Speaker 2: of course, all assumes that the regime survives, that there 632 00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:17,960 Speaker 2: isn't an overthrow of it, which of course absolutely can 633 00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:22,480 Speaker 2: happen given how tremendously unpopular the government is the regime 634 00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:23,240 Speaker 2: as a whole. 635 00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:27,600 Speaker 1: Is when you said only seven percent of Tehran had voted, 636 00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:30,279 Speaker 1: if I were in power, that would strike me as 637 00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:34,560 Speaker 1: a very ominous indication of unhappiness. 638 00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:37,319 Speaker 2: Particularly mindful of the fact that the government or the 639 00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:41,919 Speaker 2: regime as a whole often pointed to very high participation 640 00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,960 Speaker 2: rates in the elections as a sign of their legitimacy, 641 00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,720 Speaker 2: and now they have the opposite. I think the reason 642 00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,560 Speaker 2: why they impose it right now is because they want 643 00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:55,040 Speaker 2: to get through the secession and then try to rebuild 644 00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:58,680 Speaker 2: whatever idea of legitimacy they have, but the secession is 645 00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:01,120 Speaker 2: so crucial for them actually want the people to be 646 00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:01,920 Speaker 2: out of the equation. 647 00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:05,560 Speaker 1: Fascinating, But I want to thank you for joining me. 648 00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:09,040 Speaker 1: This turned out to you very interesting conversation and I 649 00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,600 Speaker 1: want to mention to our listeners that they can find 650 00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:15,319 Speaker 1: more details on your website for the Quincy Institute for 651 00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:21,320 Speaker 1: Responsible state Craft at Quincyinstitute dot org. That's QUINCYI inst 652 00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:25,040 Speaker 1: dot org. And I really appreciate Treaty You're taking this 653 00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:25,640 Speaker 1: time to be. 654 00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:28,080 Speaker 2: With me my pleasure. Thank you so much anytime. 655 00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,400 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, Treta Parsi. You can learn 656 00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,759 Speaker 1: more about Iran and their upcoming elections on our show 657 00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:43,400 Speaker 1: page at newsworld dot com. Newsworld is produced by Gingward 658 00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:47,680 Speaker 1: three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guarnsey Sloan 659 00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:51,960 Speaker 1: and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the 660 00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:56,279 Speaker 1: show Who's created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the 661 00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,440 Speaker 1: team at Gingward three sixty. If you've been enjoying Newsworld, 662 00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:02,799 Speaker 1: hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and both rate us 663 00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:06,280 Speaker 1: with five stars and give us a review so others 664 00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:09,440 Speaker 1: can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of 665 00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:13,480 Speaker 1: Newtworld consign up for my three free weekly columns at 666 00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:18,400 Speaker 1: gingristhree sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. This 667 00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:19,360 Speaker 1: is Newtworld