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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'mna just mop that action.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go throwing out show spect. We're sitting up

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Speaker 2: to cash to stop.

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Speaker 3: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go just win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible ball. I like to make money. All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kabak.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: My name's Matt Moore. I'm filling in for Brendan Glasheen

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Speaker 3: this week. Brendan's off enjoying his honeymoon a fancy resort

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Speaker 3: Barbados down in the Caribbean. I can see like the

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Speaker 3: open white shirt and just ridiculousness of Glasheen shades on

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Speaker 3: enjoying it in my head right now. Everybody here at

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Speaker 3: Action Network, which is the happy couple, all the best

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Speaker 3: for him taking time during NFL season, because really, what

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Speaker 3: better time than that. Today we got NFL Best Bets

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Speaker 3: for the one only Brandon Anderson for NFL Week five.

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Speaker 3: As a reminder, you can find all of Brandon's picks

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Speaker 3: in the free award winning Action Network app, including any

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Speaker 3: futures or awards bets. And lord knows, he's gonna have

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Speaker 3: some creative ones that are gonna make you cop your

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Speaker 3: head and be like, whats and then you'll read his

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Speaker 3: analysis and be like, I want to bet that now

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Speaker 3: along with all of his great articles. Check it out

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Speaker 3: in the Action Network app. Want to make sure that

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Speaker 3: you check out YouTube dot com Slash the Action Network

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Speaker 3: can catch a video version of this podcast. You can

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Speaker 3: catch our MLB Playoff betting podcast Playoff Pitch. Sean Zarella

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Speaker 3: and the crew do such a great job there. You

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Speaker 3: can catch our NHL podcast Line Change because NHL season

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Speaker 3: is starting, and you can catch Buckets which I host

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Speaker 3: as well as WNBA Buckets for the ongoing WNBA playoffs.

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Speaker 3: Check that out YouTube dot com, Slash the Action Network. Oh, Brand,

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Speaker 3: I've been waiting for this. I love the intro. Okay,

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Speaker 3: without further ado, let's get into some best bets for

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Speaker 3: Week five.

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Speaker 2: Hit the music.

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Speaker 1: This is your best bet, all right?

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Speaker 3: For your first pick, Brandon, you're going bold here, one

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Speaker 3: of the biggest games on the board. It's one of

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Speaker 3: the tightest spreads on the board, and you're gonna go

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Speaker 3: strong on taking a side here.

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Speaker 2: I am.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Bills against the Texans. And yeah,

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Speaker 1: this one is basically a coin flip I'm gonna grab

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Speaker 1: the money line minus want to wait getting money on

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Speaker 1: both sides. For me, this is the one bet this

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Speaker 1: week that I've had in inks and someday this is

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Speaker 1: the team that one I know I believe in. We're

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Speaker 1: buying low on the Bills even after disastrous last week,

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Speaker 1: and just continue to sell on the others. We bet

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Speaker 1: against the Texans last week. I think it was the

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Speaker 1: right play betting against them again. It's the Stefan Diggs

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Speaker 1: revenge game, right, But which side wants revenge here? I'm

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Speaker 1: not so sure that necessarily should give us a direction.

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Speaker 1: So both defenses are good, not great. I would say

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Speaker 1: they're top ten, not top five. That's what the DVA says.

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Speaker 1: Bill's run defense closer to average. We saw that go

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Speaker 1: very badly last week. They didn't have their linebackers out there.

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Speaker 1: Derrick Henry is gashing them. Guess who doesn't have Derrick Henry.

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Speaker 1: Houston has not run the ball well at all. Houston's

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Speaker 1: old line is struggling. The Bills of injuries too. But

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Speaker 1: Laromy Tunsel I think is a big miss for Houston

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Speaker 1: if he's continuing to be out. The Texans run defense

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Speaker 1: is really good. Well, that's pretty good. Buffalo likes to

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Speaker 1: run the ball, but the secondary is beatable there. Buffalo

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Speaker 1: is third DVA in passing and you gotta trust Josh

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Speaker 1: Allen here anything under field goal favorite for Josh Allen

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Speaker 1: twenty five, thirteen and two against the spread for his career,

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Speaker 1: sixty six percent, two whatevery three he covers and really

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Speaker 1: just zoom out. Take the teams away here. This is

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Speaker 1: just a great spot to back a good team after

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Speaker 1: a blowout loss. Here's the stat teams with a sixty

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Speaker 1: percent win Rader better after a twenty point loss, sixty

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Speaker 1: five percent against the spread last two decades on the road,

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Speaker 1: forty twelve and one, seventy seven percent cover rate Buffalo here.

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Speaker 1: So I'll play the bills if you're winning. Why the

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Speaker 1: money line? Why wouldn't I play the money line minus

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Speaker 1: one to eight When you're playing minus one at most

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Speaker 1: books minus one ten, I can win at one instead

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Speaker 1: of pushing. But let's go back to the wall. We're

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Speaker 1: doing escalators today, Matt, you're on with me. We got

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Speaker 1: to do escalator season. So back to an angle that I.

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Speaker 2: Think we should hit.

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Speaker 1: Last week, six of nine Texans losses since the start

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Speaker 1: of last season by double digits, averaging nineteen point three

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Speaker 1: points a game. When they lose, they lose bad. When

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Speaker 1: Buffalo wins seven wins since the start of last season

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Speaker 1: by twenty or more points. So the main bet is

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Speaker 1: the Bill's money line. Let's play the escalator Bills ten

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Speaker 1: point winter better plus three thirty, and let's go for

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Speaker 1: Bills twenty point winner better plus ten sixty. We're going in.

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Speaker 1: The Bill's just lost by that much. How about we

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Speaker 1: get it right back this week?

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Speaker 3: Okay, I am gotta keep it moving, but I do

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Speaker 3: have two quick questions. One, if Joe Mixon suddenly he

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Speaker 3: did not practice, was not seen this week in practice.

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Speaker 3: If he suddenly isn't now as upgraded and he's in,

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Speaker 3: does that worry you at all?

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Speaker 1: It does not worry me. I don't love it, but

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Speaker 1: Mixon doesn't really move the needle for me. The Houston's

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Speaker 1: running game has not gone well with or without him really.

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Speaker 3: Okay, he was awesome early in the season, but I understand.

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Speaker 3: The second one is Texans are ranked tenth and market

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Speaker 3: power ratings at impredictable dot com. Is it fair there?

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Speaker 3: I've heard some discussion on podcasts this week to have

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Speaker 3: the Texans way lower and some that are like right

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Speaker 3: in that area or higher like fourth. Is it accurate

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Speaker 3: to say you're a lot lower on the Texans there.

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't say a lot, but I would definitely say lower.

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Speaker 1: I would say not tenth, probably closer to thirteen to fourteen.

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Speaker 1: Mixon was great Week one. That was more the coolt

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Speaker 1: to run defense. I think Houston has not run.

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Speaker 3: The ball well fair enough, all right? For your second pick,

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Speaker 3: it's the other tidest spread on the board, But that's

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Speaker 3: just because no one wants to trust either team to

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Speaker 3: do anything, and neither team should ever be favored in

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Speaker 3: any contest. Dolphins Patriots a classic that will give new

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Speaker 3: meaning to the phrase bumping uglies. And you have a

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Speaker 3: total play on this one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know I love a good, ugly, nasty under.

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Speaker 1: Let's go under the thirty six and a half. We

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Speaker 1: played the Dolphins under on Monday night. I didn't get

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Speaker 1: to complain because we had to record Sunday night, So

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna complain. We got screwed twenty two to six

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Speaker 1: with under four minutes left. We're at twenty eight points.

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Speaker 1: We are coasting to the underest under that ever undered.

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Speaker 1: Then we get a touchdown, then a safety, then some

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Speaker 1: screwy rule they made up where they kick off from

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Speaker 1: the free kick and with a new kickoff rules, somebody

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Speaker 1: touched it the wrong way and blah blah blah, you

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Speaker 1: get the ball to ten what what is that? Then

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Speaker 1: we get a fourth down, touchdown, forty three points whatever.

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Speaker 1: That isn't under all the way that was the right play.

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Speaker 1: We're going back to the under here for Miami. So

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Speaker 1: here's the numbers for this season. Miami Dolphins, who, by

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Speaker 1: the way, I bet on this podcast to lead the

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Speaker 1: league in points this year. Yeah, go ahead and just

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Speaker 1: throw that ticket away. That's done, that's out. They're averaging

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Speaker 1: eleven point three points a game. And if you take

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Speaker 1: out Week one when they had two of they weren't

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Speaker 1: very good anyways, but you take that one out three games,

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Speaker 1: eight point three points a game when they haven't had

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Speaker 1: twoa for the entire game, they scored ten, three and

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Speaker 1: twelve points. Zooming a little further. Since Tua got injured,

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Speaker 1: Miami has had twenty eight drives. They've scored one touchdown.

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Speaker 1: It's that one I just mentioned with four minutes left

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Speaker 1: of a blowout. They've turned it over nine times, mostly

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Speaker 1: on downs. They can't do anything new. England's defense is

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Speaker 1: pretty good. Tyler Huntley starts again. Tyler Hunley games for

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Speaker 1: his career ten starts under thirty three points a game,

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Speaker 1: not him, both teams. Tyler Huntley is a killer of

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Speaker 1: football that we can watch. The Patriots are thirteen points

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Speaker 1: a game for the season. They're at sixteen, twenty three

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Speaker 1: and thirteen. Neither team has offense here neither. We don't

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Speaker 1: have to watch this time. It's not Monday night. There's

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Speaker 1: other games. There's games on Sunday all day long. We

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Speaker 1: can just let the money happen for us in the background.

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Speaker 1: Both these teams are bottom six run offense, bottom six

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Speaker 1: pass offense. Both defenses are pretty good. And you know

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Speaker 1: the usual trends that we all say here totals thirty

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Speaker 1: eight or blow that dropped four and a half or

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Speaker 1: more from open. This was forty five before the season,

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Speaker 1: sixty three percent to the under. Totals thirty seven are

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Speaker 1: blow since November twenty nineteen, thirty seven thirteen and one

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Speaker 1: to the under seventy four percent. That's three and one

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Speaker 1: this year. The one is the one we just lost

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Speaker 1: on Monday. We're getting it back this week. And man,

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Speaker 1: I have a question for you actually before I make

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Speaker 1: the last pick here, what's the opposite of an escalator?

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Speaker 2: Is like a de escalator? What word do I need?

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Speaker 2: That's the opposite an escalator?

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Speaker 3: You mean in terms of it being slow? Or do

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Speaker 3: you mean being a straight drop down?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Dropped down?

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Speaker 1: If I'm I can't go up, I'm on an under?

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Speaker 1: How can I what's the what's the word for escalating under?

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Speaker 3: It's a mind shaft?

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Speaker 2: All right?

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Speaker 1: Well, let's take the mind shaft under thirty six and

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Speaker 1: a half on the play. But I just gave you

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Speaker 1: that totals thirty seven rounderstat there's fifty one games on

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Speaker 1: that stretch. Thirty of those fifty one games, thirty of

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Speaker 1: them finished at thirty points or below.

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Speaker 2: That's fifty nine percent.

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Speaker 1: We are taking the ugliest alt under under thirty and

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Speaker 1: a half plus two hundred on the mine shaft. Right,

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Speaker 1: that's what we're playing here, mine shaft all the way down.

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Speaker 2: Let's get ugly here.

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Speaker 3: How deep this is? Mine? I will say you don't

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Speaker 3: really love it because you won't watch it like I

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Speaker 3: will watch this game. I will put this I will

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Speaker 3: bet this and I will put this game on on

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Speaker 3: what I will put in the quad box. I won't

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Speaker 3: have it on the original. How long until the Dolphins

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Speaker 3: just give it up and trade for Russell Wilson. That's

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Speaker 3: that's my question. Go get Russ let Russ cook. All right,

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Speaker 3: you got prop play up next, and it's against a

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Speaker 3: team that I cannot stop betting against, no matter how

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Speaker 3: many times they pull a cover out from there took us.

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Speaker 3: So I'm excited for a new way to attack this

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Speaker 3: team in your prop play.

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Speaker 1: Now, I want to go with Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers

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Speaker 1: running back over fifty eight and a half rushing yards.

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Speaker 2: You know it's a one.

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Speaker 1: I have to tell you what team they play for

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Speaker 1: and what.

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Speaker 2: Position he is. I think this game.

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Speaker 1: Look, a lot of people are on Panthers here, Panthers Bears.

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Speaker 1: It's the Bryce Young game. Basically, hopefully no Bryce Young

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Speaker 1: involved here. That's part of the cap. The total is

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Speaker 1: falling a lot of folks in the Panthers. It's a

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Speaker 1: windy game, so I'm not playing the Panthers here. If

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Speaker 1: the Panthers are good in a windy game, how about

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Speaker 1: they run the football. That makes a lot of sense

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Speaker 1: to me, right, If you're ahead, you're protecting the lead.

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Speaker 1: If it's windy, you're running the football. The Bears defense

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Speaker 1: is pretty good, top five in DVA, but they're bottom

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Speaker 1: three against the run so far. That's weird because last

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Speaker 1: year they were great against the run. But so far

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Speaker 1: Tony Pollard sixteen carries eighty two yards against the Bears

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Speaker 1: to mix in played them, got hurt. Jonathan Taylor twenty

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Speaker 1: three for one hundred and ten, Kyvin Williams nineteen for

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Speaker 1: ninety four. Teams are just running the football on Chicago,

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Speaker 1: and I think Carolina will do that.

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Speaker 2: Juba Hubbard, if you look at the.

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Speaker 1: Numbers so far, has been a really big beneficiary of

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Speaker 1: the Andy Dalton switch. Right, everyone has been, but the

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Speaker 1: younger line has played well for Carolina. Why Dalton in

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Speaker 1: the run game, Well, Dalton's not running. Dalton's competent, Right,

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Speaker 1: You move the chains, you keep the football. You're going

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Speaker 1: to run the football when you have the football. It

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Speaker 1: turns out so Hubbard. The first two games with Bryce

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Speaker 1: Young six carries for fourteen yards. That's an entire game

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Speaker 1: stat for him. Ten carries for forty four yards in

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Speaker 1: the other game. Two games since then with Dalton twenty

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Speaker 1: one for one hundred and fourteen eighteen for one hundred

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Speaker 1: and four. The matchups helped a little bit, but Dalton helped.

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Speaker 2: A lot more.

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Speaker 1: Only eight guys in the NFL have multiple hundred yard

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Speaker 1: rushing games. Hubbard's done that both the last two weeks.

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Speaker 1: He's top ten in rushing yards. He's the number six

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Speaker 1: PFF running back, ahead of Alvin Kamara and Bijon Robinson.

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Speaker 1: He's got it yards after contact.

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Speaker 2: I think it's this.

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Speaker 1: It's a line that should be I would honestly put

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Speaker 1: it more like seventy five or eighty. I think just

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Speaker 1: the name recognition's not there yet for Cuba, Hubbard and

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Speaker 1: Carolina so over fifty and a half rushing yards. And

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Speaker 1: again it's escalator day. Eighty plus is plus two forty five.

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Speaker 1: One hundred and ten plus is plus nine point fifty.

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Speaker 1: Watch the app. It's a lot of numbers here. I'll

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Speaker 1: put in what units for different things here. Basically, on

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Speaker 1: an escalator, something like sixty percent of your bet should

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Speaker 1: go on the main thing, twenty five percent on the

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Speaker 1: on the miniature escalator, and then like fifteen percent on

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Speaker 1: the top level. And hopefully with all the way up.

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Speaker 1: Like with Jane Reed Green Bay last week.

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Speaker 3: I've been watching Stranger Things with my kid and so

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Speaker 3: a lot of it's in the mall in season three.

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Speaker 3: I just imagine all the pump hairdos going up the

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Speaker 3: escalator every time you mentioned this. The show is more

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Speaker 3: escalators than all of America. This last one. I knew

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Speaker 3: you would have this game because you I love this

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Speaker 3: maybe strong. You really like this team, I think, even

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Speaker 3: relative to how hard they are on the market, which

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Speaker 3: is pretty strong, and you think the other one is

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Speaker 3: hot garbage and you called it that early in the preseason.

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Speaker 3: What's your last best bet?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, nothing fancy here, just Packers minus three at the Rams.

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Speaker 1: One team that I love, I will say it. One

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Speaker 1: team that I hate. Happy to say that part before

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Speaker 1: the season, part of the cap on the MS. A

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Speaker 1: big part of it was their defense just not being good,

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Speaker 1: and that has played out. They are thirty first in DVAA.

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Speaker 1: They're thirty first against the run, they're thirty first against

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Speaker 1: the pass. There's only thirty two teams. Thirty first is

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Speaker 1: not a great place to live. As it turns out,

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Speaker 1: they've given up at least twenty four points every game

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Speaker 1: so far. Not even against the best competition. The Packers

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Speaker 1: are third on offense by dvaway, top ten run, top

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Speaker 1: five passing, and that despite four games so far, two

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Speaker 1: from Malik Willis, one on an ice rink in Brazil,

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Speaker 1: one with Jordan Love returning from injury. It's a lot

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Speaker 1: of excuses, I know, but because despite all those things,

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Speaker 1: they're still third offensively. Last week, once Jordan Love shook

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Speaker 1: off the rust and settled in twenty nine points and

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Speaker 1: barely over a half. Now he scored zero the first half,

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Speaker 1: that part counts two. But I think twenty nine would

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Speaker 1: get the job done.

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Speaker 2: For us here.

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Speaker 1: So I did consider just the team total, right, why

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Speaker 1: not just go to the team total over twenty five

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Speaker 1: and a half. If this moves off minus three pass

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Speaker 1: that's the key number. I think that's probably a good

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Speaker 1: pivot for you at the key number. I just feel

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Speaker 1: like we have more outs here. Green Bay does play slow,

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Speaker 1: so that could maybe limit the scoring a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Even if they're up ahead. I think they'll run the

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Speaker 1: football a lot. I don't mind green Bay's defense. The

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Speaker 1: secondary is beatable, but the Rams don't have receivers. I

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Speaker 1: like playing the minus three. It's at the key number

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Speaker 1: gives us more outs, right, it gives us the stafford

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Speaker 1: just made some bad plays out give us some other

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Speaker 1: ways to get there, even if Green Bay doesn't score

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Speaker 1: a ton of points. So keep it easy, just taking

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Speaker 1: the better team. It's on the road, Nah, not INLA.

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Speaker 1: There's gonna be Packers fans of that game too.

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Speaker 2: Just keep it easy. Packers minus three.

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Speaker 3: All right, that's Brandon Ashen's best bets for Week five.

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Speaker 3: Mentioned Seawan Zarrillo earlier in the baseball team. They've been

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Speaker 3: absolutely phenomenal. He had another great year Sean did in baseball,

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Speaker 3: finishing the Major League Baseball regular season up more than

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Speaker 3: twenty five units. And with Action Pro, you get instant

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00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:57,840
Speaker 3: notifications every time Zarillo or any of our action experts

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Speaker 3: to make a pit in the Action app. Just visit

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Speaker 3: actionnetwork dot com slash Pro and use the promo code

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00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:07,640
Speaker 3: October for fifteen percent off and Action Pro subscription. That's

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Speaker 3: fifteen percent off at actionnetwork dot com slash Pro with

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Speaker 3: the promo code October, and be sure to check Shan

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Speaker 3: out every week talking Major League Baseball playoffs on the

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Speaker 3: Playoff Pitch podcast. Up next, It wouldn't be a Brandon

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Speaker 3: Anderson episode without long shots. I don't know why we

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Speaker 3: have a long shot segment, considering you've played escalators on

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Speaker 3: everything except Packers. Let's run through your go big or

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Speaker 3: go home plays this week, Brandon.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So first one is give me justin the fields

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Speaker 1: a score touchdown plus one eighty five Sunday night against

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys. I no six pack likes the Steelers here.

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Speaker 1: This is my way of playing the Steelers matchup. I

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Speaker 1: think it's a nice matchup because Dallas is dead last

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Speaker 1: in run defense for the season. Well, Pittsburgh's and Arthur Smith.

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Speaker 1: All they want to do is run the football. Their

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Speaker 1: offensive line has been pretty good this year. We saw

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Speaker 1: that in Atlanta. Wherever he goes, the offensive line outperforms.

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Speaker 1: Why because it's way easier run blocking. You get to

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Speaker 1: go do the thing rather than protecting the thing. So

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Speaker 1: I looked for rushing yards overs here. Honestly, I wanted

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Speaker 1: to play Naji Heiris over sixty nine yards three out

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Speaker 1: of the four games. There's no lines yet we got

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Speaker 1: lots of injuries. We don't know who's going to play

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Speaker 1: a running back?

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Speaker 2: All right?

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Speaker 1: How about a running back quarterback? Just justin fields, Dallas

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Speaker 1: is allowed a quarterback rushing touchdown six of their last

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Speaker 1: fourteen games, Like that is a really high number for

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Speaker 1: a quarterback rushing touchdown almost half of their games. Fields

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Speaker 1: has scored three of Pittsburgh's six offensive touchdowns on the

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Speaker 1: ground this season. So he's got all the rushing touchdowns

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Speaker 1: plus one eighty five. But you know, I was looking

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Speaker 1: at the rushing yards. I talked myself in this one

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Speaker 1: at the last minute.

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Speaker 3: Just a little.

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Speaker 1: Sprinkle, a little sprinkle on or sprinkle. So Fields is

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Speaker 1: yardage is forty three and a half. Eh, I don't

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Speaker 1: need it.

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Speaker 2: He has a fifty five.

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Speaker 1: He has a fifty seven, but he's gone under a

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Speaker 1: couple of times. I don't like the media outcome there.

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Speaker 1: You know what we haven't had for a while. Just

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Speaker 1: a big long fun Justin Field's run right, like, breaks

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Speaker 1: through the coverage, gets scampering sixty yards down the sideline.

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Speaker 1: All right, how about we go for the outlier one

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Speaker 1: hundred yards for Justin Fields. He's done that five times

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Speaker 1: in his career, eleven percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: We get it at twelve to one.

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Speaker 1: We got odds in our favor here, he's at eighty

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Speaker 1: two yards or better rushing and twenty three percent of

371
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Speaker 1: us start, so I think one in four times, maybe more.

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Speaker 1: Because it's Dallas, we're one run away, just one scamper

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Speaker 1: Sunday night. You gotta watch anyways, Steelers Cowboys. You may

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Speaker 1: as well have something fun to do. Justin Field's touchdown

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Speaker 1: plus twenty five sprinkle one hundred yards twelve to one.

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Speaker 3: Twenty five percent of the time. It works every time.

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Speaker 3: Basically how that played out? All right, what's next?

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Speaker 1: Derrick Henry one hundred rushing yards and two scores. I'm

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Speaker 1: mad I'm betting this one. Mad, All is a good

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00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:52,600
Speaker 1: place to come to a bet. We bet this on

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Speaker 1: this podcast in Week two against the Raiders because when

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Speaker 1: they're when Derrick Henry's team win, they get yards and

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Speaker 1: to touchdown. So we got a touchdown, we got eighty yards.

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Speaker 1: We're up ten going to the fourth quarter against the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: They didn't win the game, so we didn't hit our

386
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Speaker 1: bet because that's how the thing is supposed to work,

387
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Speaker 1: so I went away from it. So what happened the

388
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Speaker 1: last two weeks? Derrick Henry one hundred and fifty one yards,

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Speaker 1: two touchdowns. Derrick Henry one hundred ninety nine yards, two touchdowns.

390
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:21,160
Speaker 1: Didn't play it. I'm playing it. I think the Bengals

391
00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,400
Speaker 1: are not the right matchup for the Ravens. Their defense

392
00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:28,800
Speaker 1: is not good. Their bottom ten run, bottom ten pass defense.

393
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Speaker 1: Derrick Henry in his career has twenty games of one

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Speaker 1: hundred yards and two scores. Nobody else since he started

395
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Speaker 1: playing as even half that number. He is something else

396
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:43,440
Speaker 1: entirely and importantly for this play. If you don't think

397
00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:47,560
Speaker 1: Baltimore wins this game, do not play this. I like Baltimore.

398
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Speaker 1: I don't need to play the median outcome, the minus

399
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:53,240
Speaker 1: two and a half. All but two of those one

400
00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:56,800
Speaker 1: hundred yard two touchdown games have been wins for Derrick Henry.

401
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Speaker 1: So minimize the overall number of games. He's got eighteen

402
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Speaker 1: games of one hundred and two in sixty eight wins

403
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Speaker 1: twenty six percent of the time Henry wins a game,

404
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Speaker 1: he hits one hundred yards and two touchdowns. We're at

405
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Speaker 1: plus three hundred, basically where we want that. We're getting

406
00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:15,359
Speaker 1: this at plus six hundred if you get the right

407
00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,440
Speaker 1: book out there. So one hundred yards two scores for

408
00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:19,960
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry, that's the play.

409
00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:23,120
Speaker 3: So wait, wait, but are you including a Ravens money

410
00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:23,440
Speaker 3: line on that.

411
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:27,359
Speaker 1: I'm not including a Ravens' money line only because I

412
00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,080
Speaker 1: get it. I get the face I looked at it. Basically,

413
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:32,119
Speaker 1: books are not giving me any bonus for that. It

414
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:35,399
Speaker 1: moves it up like fifty points or something, and I

415
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 1: just I don't feel like that's worth it. He does

416
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,680
Speaker 1: have other outs to get there, and for that little

417
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:41,800
Speaker 1: bit of bonus on what's already along line, I didn't

418
00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,040
Speaker 1: feel like any of that. Check your book, see what

419
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,120
Speaker 1: the line looks like. If it boosted enough, I think

420
00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:47,160
Speaker 1: it's definitely worth playing.

421
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:50,600
Speaker 3: I've never seen you not be greedy before. That's surprising.

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00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:55,159
Speaker 3: All Right, this next one. I was so excited to

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Speaker 3: do this podcast and then I saw this and I

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Speaker 3: was like, of course he's doing this to me.

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Speaker 1: Go ahead, Yeah, I'm just gonna do them together because

426
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 1: they're both for you, Matt, They're both they're just special

427
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:08,399
Speaker 1: since around here today these are futures bets, but they're

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Speaker 1: proxy bets wrangles.

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Speaker 2: I like this week.

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Speaker 1: I liked Denver at home against the Raiders. I think

431
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Speaker 1: the one good unit in that game is Denver's defense.

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Speaker 1: They're top five at DVA. They're allowing under fourteen points

433
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,200
Speaker 1: a game. I don't really need Denver against the Raiders.

434
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 1: The Raiders are on an eight game win streak, and

435
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,399
Speaker 1: the rivalry it's a minus three. Now at the key number,

436
00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 1: we kind of missed it. But here's how you can

437
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:33,080
Speaker 1: play it. Bronco's Division thirty five to one. I wrote

438
00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:35,280
Speaker 1: about both these teams this week in the two and

439
00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 1: two power rankings. They're both two and two. That means,

440
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 1: let me help you out with the math. One team

441
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 1: is gonna be three and two at the end of Sunday.

442
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 1: Between these two teams. I think it's the Broncos. And

443
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:50,000
Speaker 1: if the Chiefs, with all their missing guys, lose Monday Night,

444
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,200
Speaker 1: Denver is suddenly one game out of the division five

445
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 1: weeks into the year. At thirty five to one, that's

446
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 1: just an insane number. Do I think Denver's gonna win

447
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:01,640
Speaker 1: the division? No Knicks isn't going to win the division,

448
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,879
Speaker 1: But thirty five to one, now we're talking. That's the

449
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 1: play a Denver broncoach. The other play is if you

450
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,679
Speaker 1: think that the Chiefs are vulnerable with all their injuries

451
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:17,399
Speaker 1: on Monday night, Derek Carr MVP eighty to one. Again,

452
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,479
Speaker 1: I don't think Derek Carr is going MVP. This sounds

453
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,440
Speaker 1: like a terrible world to live in. But is he

454
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 1: eighty to one?

455
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:24,679
Speaker 2: I don't know.

456
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:28,080
Speaker 1: He's the number one quarterback in PFF grade right now.

457
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:32,640
Speaker 1: He's fourth in EPA plus CPOE. That is consistently a

458
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 1: good marker for who wins MVP. He's on a friendly

459
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,160
Speaker 1: Kubiak system. And think about this way. The Saints won

460
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:42,159
Speaker 1: two games huge and they lost to put the schedule around.

461
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 1: How would we be thinking about Derek Carr right now?

462
00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 1: If they lost two games and then won two huge games,

463
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 1: one of them against Dallas, we'd be all super high

464
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 1: on the Saints. Then they go to Monday night in Arrowhead,

465
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,360
Speaker 1: where Derek carrs played a lot of games. You beat

466
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 1: the MVP favorite. You're not getting MVP smoke after that.

467
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 1: Just a quarter unit eighty the one. It's a Saints

468
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,879
Speaker 1: money line angle. I think these bets are even play.

469
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I'm betting a little bit against your chiefs.

470
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 3: Here a little bit. You're taking a team quarterback by

471
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,159
Speaker 3: a guy with negative yards at half last week to

472
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 3: win the Division.

473
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 2: Bow next season. The full effect negative yards.

474
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,120
Speaker 3: I mean, don't get me wrong. Down running back one

475
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 3: and wide receiver one and wide receiver two. I get it. Geez,

476
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 3: Broncos thirty five to one. This is more Sean Payton

477
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 3: is good outside of Drew Brees nonsense. Let me ask

478
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 3: you this, if Derek Carr, based off of this season's results,

479
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 3: were to win MVP, would he be more or less

480
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 3: deserving than Lamar Jackson last year?

481
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 2: That is an excellent question asked.

482
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,160
Speaker 1: He would clearly be more deserving because Lamar Jackson should

483
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:49,640
Speaker 1: not have been top five last year.

484
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 3: Just want to ask that one. All right, As always

485
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 3: super valuable part of the show, We're gonna get to

486
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 3: the look ahead for week six. Brandon gives you the

487
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 3: best insights into what tibet now before next week's lines.

488
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 2: Let's look ahead, scoom a shot.

489
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:10,200
Speaker 3: How about next week? Ickut my mind set? Look up

490
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,119
Speaker 3: my mindset?

491
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, last week's look ahead and not looking ahead so great?

492
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 1: Right now? We had the Jets against the Vikings and

493
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 1: the line moved against us. I'm not buying out of that.

494
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:21,640
Speaker 1: I still think it's a good spot for the Jets.

495
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 1: There's a lot of trends on They'm not gonna add

496
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 1: to it, but just commenting on that. Here we like

497
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:27,879
Speaker 1: to get the COLV. We get the minus CLV on

498
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,360
Speaker 1: this one. I feel better about Week six. Week six,

499
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 1: we're gonna go to Dallas to fade Dallas. We're gonna

500
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 1: play the Lions minus two and a half in Dallas

501
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 1: at the Cowboys. We'll love a Sunday afternoon Cowboys let down.

502
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 1: Don't we remember the last time these teams played? Guess

503
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 1: who remembers? Dan Campbell remembers it was Week seventeen last year.

504
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 1: It's twenty nineteen, thirty seconds left. The Lions have just

505
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 1: scored a touchdown. They line up to go for two.

506
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 1: They make the two on a great play call, but nope,

507
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 1: Dan Skipper backup lineman didn't fail or didn't report, so

508
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 1: they took the two points away. Detroit drops out of

509
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 1: the one seed even though Skipper did report. By the way,

510
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,920
Speaker 1: how do I bet any Dan Skipper anytime touchdown next week?

511
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 1: Sign me up for that play next week. I think

512
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 1: the Lions remember that one and I just love this

513
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 1: matchup for them. Dallas might lose Sunday night in Pittsburgh.

514
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 1: They would drop to two and three. This line is

515
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 1: gonna be moving if they do. They're missing Micah Parsons

516
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 1: missing DeMarcus Lawrence. They'ren Bland. Their star corner Brandon Cooks

517
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,959
Speaker 1: is out. Guess who's not missing Guys, Detroit, they're watching

518
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,880
Speaker 1: football this week. They're off the bye week, So Dallas

519
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 1: is ailing. Detroit's home resting road favorites coming off of

520
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 1: bye week sixty percent against the spread. We mentioned this earlier.

521
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,640
Speaker 1: Dallas is the worst run defense in the league. Guess

522
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,719
Speaker 1: who wants to bite kneecaps and run the football. Detroit

523
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:50,679
Speaker 1: might run for three hundred yards in this game, especially

524
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 1: if Frank right now is back. So one book has

525
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 1: the minus two and a half out there, another has

526
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 1: a minus three get it before the key number lines

527
00:24:58,440 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 1: minus two and a half for next week.

528
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 3: All right, So you think they might lose and then

529
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 3: lose the letdown spot two. You think they might lose

530
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 3: the Steelers because they're banged up, And then I think.

531
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 1: That they might lose this week, and then the line

532
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:14,920
Speaker 1: will go past the three and they'll be minus four

533
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 1: next week, and then the Lions will win by three,

534
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: and then we'll win the look Ahead and everyone else

535
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 1: will be on the Lions and they'll lose their bet.

536
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,119
Speaker 2: That's why we play the look Ahead.

537
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:25,680
Speaker 1: Now, I think we should bet against Dallas as often

538
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:26,479
Speaker 1: as we can right now.

539
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 2: They're not that good.

540
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,160
Speaker 3: I mean, when would that happen except every single time

541
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 3: I'm late to tail you on look Ahead? Okay. Interesting,

542
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 3: So if they're gonna be two and four, if you

543
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:38,439
Speaker 3: think that there's a good chance the Cowboys are going

544
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,879
Speaker 3: to be two and four, does that prompt you with

545
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 3: anything on the NFC East.

546
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,199
Speaker 1: I have my eye on not Washington but Philadelphia. The

547
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:51,199
Speaker 1: problem is Washington has a really soft schedule for the

548
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 1: first nine weeks of the season. They've got a couple

549
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 1: of rough weeks here, but then another soft stretch, then

550
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 1: really tough in the back half. So I think that's

551
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: smart to think about fading Dallas. But I am not

552
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,439
Speaker 1: ready to quit Philadelphia. But a lot of the metrics

553
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 1: out there don't love them in the spot where they're at.

554
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 1: I think it's a play like a month from now.

555
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 1: I think we get the dip on Washington first a

556
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 1: game or two, then back up, and then as the

557
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,119
Speaker 1: leaves start to fall and we get to November and

558
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,719
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury remembers it's the second half of the season.

559
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 1: Then my friend, then is when we fade Cliff Kingsbury,

560
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 1: not with Dallas, So maybe some value is gone that

561
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 1: I think becomes the Philadelphia spot. Maybe maybe fade Dallas

562
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 1: if you want, if you can find it out there

563
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 1: at a book. Maybe first coach fired still out there

564
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 1: if they fell to two and four and you know,

565
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 1: Bill Belichick's name just floating out there. I don't know,

566
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: maybe something like that that's more fun to me.

567
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, on the.

568
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,199
Speaker 3: Lions, might as soon have a Cowboys next week. I

569
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 3: think the analysis is really sound because even if Cowboys

570
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 3: were to win, I think that even if this, if

571
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 3: they move this towards Cowboys, I feel like Sharps would

572
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 3: come in and immediately move this back.

573
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, And that's part of too, when I'm looking at

574
00:26:57,880 --> 00:26:59,399
Speaker 1: one of these, like, Okay, what if I'm wrong and

575
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 1: the line moves the other way, how will I feel

576
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 1: We did that with the Jets game, I still feel

577
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 1: okay with it. Like if the line moves a little

578
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 1: bit towards Dallas, I'm effectively still just needing Detroit to

579
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 1: win by field goal here. But if I wait an MS,

580
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 1: I might miss the key number. So I'd rather just

581
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 1: grab it now. I'm sure I will be on the

582
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 1: Detroit side because of the bad run defense.

583
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes sense. I mean, look, I understand Wy

584
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 3: you feel stilleel good about the Jets. I mean, all

585
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,160
Speaker 3: they did was lose to a team with a quarterback

586
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,679
Speaker 3: with negative yards and apf bo. Can you take us

587
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,160
Speaker 3: through the interception in the end zone? Uh yeah, chop

588
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 3: back to the other team.

589
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks for our teaser. By the way, both of

590
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 2: us failing all the Jets.

591
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,400
Speaker 3: On that one. That one hurt this one's week. It's

592
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 3: going to be better and you can have a better

593
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 3: weekend by following all of Brandon's picks in the award

594
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,919
Speaker 3: winning and free Action Network app That's going to do

595
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,960
Speaker 3: it for our NFL Week five best bets here on

596
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast. As a selfish little plug, you

597
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 3: can hear more from Brandon Anderson over on the Buckets podcast.

598
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 3: We did our Elite one hundred, which is the one

599
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 3: hundred most impactful players in the NBA, the most elite

600
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:00,040
Speaker 3: of the elites that we are. You all sorts of

601
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,640
Speaker 3: things on the Friday episode, which you can check out

602
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 3: right now that's live. Also check out the Action Network

603
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 3: Discord server to chop it up with the experts and

604
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 3: fellow gamblers. During these games, you're gonna find a lot

605
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 3: of cool conversation with guys like Sean Kerner and all

606
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:14,880
Speaker 3: the folks in there, like some really smart betters in there,

607
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 3: so go check out that. There's a link in the

608
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 3: description of this podcast. Don't miss our Week five betting

609
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 3: preview episode with Stucky and Ravon, including the Sunday six pack,

610
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 3: also out now, and we'll be back next week with

611
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 3: more best. That's been a off fun filling in this

612
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 3: week for Brendan glas Sheen. Thanks for joining us. We'll

613
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 3: see you guys again next time on the Action Network podcast.

614
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

615
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

616
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one hundred Gambler