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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough?

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Speaker 2: No, we're running again, so smoothe so sweet, slipid.

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Speaker 1: Sixteen just glorious extrocution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 1: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that?

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Speaker 1: Shop with mind? Good buddy, and that's why.

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Speaker 2: You see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the

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Speaker 2: most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The love is left too, the wide eyed, drilled bibus

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Speaker 3: how old Earth?

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Speaker 1: Pick that happens? Helloyone and welcome back to Wondergol, the

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Speaker 1: soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. My name is

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Speaker 1: Michael Lee Buff and joining me for this midweek edition

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Speaker 1: of the show are Anthony Dubundo and bj Cunningham. Together

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Speaker 1: the three of us are going to go through off

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Speaker 1: ten Premier League matches coming our way Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday,

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Speaker 1: we'll look at some European Cup matches if if we

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Speaker 1: want maybe tiptoe in and out of those, then we'll

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Speaker 1: give out our our favorite bets for the week ahead.

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Speaker 1: The midweek matches. We're not going to do an underdog parlay.

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Speaker 1: This weekend we went on in three over, or this

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Speaker 1: week we went owing three over the weekend. Anthony and

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Speaker 1: bjfs not to do it. I had two in the

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Speaker 1: holster and they still asked not to do it. So

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Speaker 1: if when Sheffield United and Lowtontown win this weekend and

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Speaker 1: you think and the tweets go out, oh, if you

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Speaker 1: parlay these two teams together, you would have gotten this part.

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Speaker 2: You would have retired on the spot.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you can blame those two guys. But before we

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Speaker 1: get into some serious business, here a reminder that wonder

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Speaker 1: than anyone else. Every day they power up the odds

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Speaker 1: on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to

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Speaker 1: win more. Bet three six five boost specific markets, your

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Speaker 1: winnings and even parlays, and they don't stop there. Keep

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Speaker 1: the incredible super boost. Check out the boosts and see

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Speaker 1: why it's never ordinary. Bet three six five. You must

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Speaker 1: be twenty one or older and president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia or eighteen and older

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Speaker 1: in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Please, if you have a gambling problem,

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Speaker 1: please call whenne hundred gambler or one hundred bets off

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Speaker 1: in Iowa terms, conditions and restrictions apply. Okay, we didn't

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Speaker 1: hit the underdog parlay over the weekend, but we had

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Speaker 1: a pretty good weekend as a podcast because of the

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Speaker 1: City Arsenal match ending nil nil. So that was great.

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Speaker 1: And let's start with the Let's start with one of

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Speaker 1: those teams that's Manchester City minus four hundred at home

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Speaker 1: hosting Aston Villa. They're coming in at nine to one.

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Speaker 1: The draw here is plus five point fifty. Anthony, you,

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Speaker 1: how many times do you think you've bet on man

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Speaker 1: City this season? Because it looks like you're going to

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Speaker 1: be walking down that path here going against Munaiamory and

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Speaker 1: the boys.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I just don't really think Villa is well equipped to

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Speaker 2: play a defensive style that they're going to need to

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Speaker 2: play in this matchup against City. And you know, obviously

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Speaker 2: they're not going to come out and press and play

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Speaker 2: a high line. And as a result of that, they're

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Speaker 2: going to be sitting deeper and I really don't think

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Speaker 2: the DNA of this Villa team is designed to play

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Speaker 2: that way. I think there's a reason that Emery has

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Speaker 2: kind of built them to play this high line to

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Speaker 2: you know, condensed midfield space. It's the lack of midfield

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Speaker 2: ball winning and defending quality in the team, and given

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Speaker 2: the current injury situation, I think it only gets excentuated

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Speaker 2: accentuated by that fact. So you know, a lot of

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Speaker 2: people will go back and look at that first meeting

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Speaker 2: where at Villa City played a lineup that was so

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Speaker 2: unbelievably narrow and without so much key players that it

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Speaker 2: was like not really the real City team, and you know,

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Speaker 2: they didn't take a shot after the fifteenth minute. It

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Speaker 2: was a deserved win for Villa. I think we had

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Speaker 2: Villa that game, Michael. But this is a different animal

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Speaker 2: now because we're dealing with the City team. You know,

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Speaker 2: there's some defensive injuries, but offensively they're they're firing at

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Speaker 2: a very different level with everybody healthy now. I think,

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Speaker 2: and you know, throw today's match out whatever regardless, I

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Speaker 2: think they kind of con cruise to a multiple goal

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Speaker 2: victory here at home and We have seen Villa really

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Speaker 2: struggle in other matches to kind of punch up against

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Speaker 2: Liverpool even you know Tottenham, you know, beating them pretty

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Speaker 2: comfortably in that second half a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: Like you're seeing these defensive issues. John McGinn is still

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Speaker 2: suspended for this match. This will be the last match

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Speaker 2: of his suspension and then Kamara you done for the year.

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Speaker 2: Kind of where you see. I think the issues they

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Speaker 2: have in defense come to fruition. You know, they played

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Speaker 2: and we laid them against Wolves on Sunday or Saturday.

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Speaker 2: That was a Wolves team without any of their quality attackers,

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Speaker 2: and really in terms of the flow of the match,

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Speaker 2: I thought Wolves looked dangerous at times like Villa were

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Speaker 2: not able to control it. And I think they're going

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Speaker 2: to really struggle defensively here to keep City out from

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Speaker 2: scoring multiple times. So City for me laying it and

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Speaker 2: laying some favorites this week, which is always scary in

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Speaker 2: these midweek matches, but I think it's City in a

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Speaker 2: pretty comfortable win here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So I do agree with the Anthony's sentiment that

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Speaker 3: I think we'll see a different type of line up

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Speaker 3: here from City. You know, in the previous match. They

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Speaker 3: started foting on the left Silva on the right, and

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Speaker 3: like you said, they just were trying to dominate the

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Speaker 3: center part of the pitch and Villa just wasn't letting

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Speaker 3: them do that, and for whatever reason, City just weren't

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Speaker 3: able to play balls and over the top. Well, now

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Speaker 3: Kevin Debrun's back, so that obviously changes everything for City.

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Speaker 3: They actually have that ball playing central midfielder that can

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Speaker 3: distribute and play balls over the top of the line

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Speaker 3: since there's really not going to be any space in

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Speaker 3: between those lines. It was funny, I was, I was

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Speaker 3: going through everything before last night, and uh, I was

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Speaker 3: just like, what's the everybody holds serve parlay right? The

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Speaker 3: arsenal Liverpool City parlay like the chalkiest thing that you

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Speaker 3: can possibly do. It's actually not as bad as the

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Speaker 3: price as I thought. It's about minus one sixty ish,

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Speaker 3: which I was like, yeah, maybe, like that's not that's

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Speaker 3: not bad. But I know Michael will tell us in

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Speaker 3: the podcast how Sheffield's going to be Liverpool, but this

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Speaker 3: is the past for me. I actually do show a

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Speaker 3: little bit of value on Villa, but without Kamara, it's

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Speaker 3: a it's a little bit of a dangerous game. And

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Speaker 3: I really don't like Backingville on the road, especially in

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Speaker 3: these type of spots against these really good teams, because

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Speaker 3: they have struggled basically in any scenario that they've been

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Speaker 3: on the road against a really good team. So it's

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Speaker 3: pass for me.

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Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, you know I was looking at this too,

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Speaker 2: not the parlay of the three favorites, but I was

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Speaker 2: looking at you know, is City going to be laying

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Speaker 2: less than a goal the rest of this season? I

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Speaker 2: kind of think the answer is that they're going to

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Speaker 2: be laying a goal in every match the rest of

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Speaker 2: the season. Minimum. That's where we're at now. Like they go,

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Speaker 2: they'll go to Tottenham, they'll go to Brighton. Other than that,

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Speaker 2: that's pretty much I mean, not counting Champions League, which

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Speaker 2: you know obviously could change, but in the Premier League

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Speaker 2: they're gonna be laying a goal in every match. So

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Speaker 2: that's kind of where we're at now with City, where

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Speaker 2: it's like a lot it's going to have to go

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Speaker 2: wrong for them to lose or even drop points. You know,

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Speaker 2: I'm sure they will in the final nine matches, but

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Speaker 2: you know, now we're in we're in chase mode. Can

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Speaker 2: Liverpool hold off the chasing pack. That's going to be really.

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Speaker 1: Fun, tricky matchup for them this weekend.

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Speaker 2: The same is not true for Liverpool and Arsenal, by

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Speaker 2: the way, who will have matches where they are shorter

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Speaker 2: favorites than that. Liverpool goes to United and they go

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Speaker 2: to Villa, Arsenal goes to Spurs, et cetera. Arsenal goes

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Speaker 2: to Brighton. I think they're laying three quarters this weekend,

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Speaker 2: so there are going to be more more chances for

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Speaker 2: the teams in front to slip.

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Speaker 1: Given each teams as has nine matches left was eight

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Speaker 1: nine matches left piece right, So I do wonder what

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Speaker 1: the over under would be set on combined points dropped

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Speaker 1: from from this point on, just because they don't none

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Speaker 1: of them playing each other anymore. I think Tottenham is

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Speaker 1: really the.

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Speaker 3: The tea when anyone schedule friends that bet three six

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Speaker 3: five to maybe get that booked and on the on

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Speaker 3: the site, that'd be an interesting one.

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Speaker 1: I guess I would put it somewhere in the teens.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, City is going to be like five and a half,

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Speaker 3: so you know, I probably could I probably could go

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Speaker 3: ahead and project that out if I really you know,

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Speaker 3: if you really.

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Speaker 2: Wanted to discuss that ahead of the Thursday episode.

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Speaker 3: Maybe some some stat logging, some projecting for the next podcast.

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Speaker 1: Okay, but for now we'll we'll leave it there. Nothing

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Speaker 1: for me in that match at all. I do think

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Speaker 1: it's it's a fun, fun couple of weekends here to

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Speaker 1: watch City because I think like they they've got to

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Speaker 1: make up some ground of the gold difference. Man. So

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Speaker 1: I do think that Anthony, the way you're betting dismatch,

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Speaker 1: I think if City is ahead in these matches and

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Speaker 1: they feel like comfortable, maybe it's like two nil. I

183
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Speaker 1: do think that you're gonna look at a team that's

184
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Speaker 1: gonna want to step on, you know, put put the

185
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Speaker 1: pedal to the metal more than we were used to

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Speaker 1: seeing from them, because they've gotta they've got to make

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Speaker 1: up some ground. Uh in goal difference with h with

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Speaker 1: Liverpool and Arsenal. They are trailing Liverpool by five goals

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Speaker 1: and Arsenal by eleven. So probably not catching Arsenal, but

190
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Speaker 1: at least Liverpool. So just keep having money.

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Speaker 3: Well you say that, and do you know who the

192
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Speaker 3: City has the weekend?

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Speaker 1: That's what Yeah, that's what I'm saying. The luten Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's like Luten and they got you know, Palace and

195
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Speaker 1: some other one. So it's just something to keep in

196
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Speaker 1: mind with City if you're watching them, and you know,

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Speaker 1: don't don't think that you know, if they've they've they're

198
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Speaker 1: up three, nail out a team with in this in

199
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Speaker 1: the thirtieth minute that they're gonna be just shutting down shop.

200
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Speaker 1: Uh all right, Next up, let's talk Chelsea and Manchester United. Uh,

201
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Speaker 1: both teams coming off hilarious draws for very different reasons

202
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Speaker 1: over the weekend. I'lsee two two against Burnley in which

203
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Speaker 1: they probably should have scored four. I think if we're

204
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Speaker 1: being fair United.

205
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Speaker 2: What's that it was like three point three x G

206
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Speaker 2: in total?

207
00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:14,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think if you if you wanted,

208
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Speaker 1: they deserve the win in pretty clearly. Uh, they are

209
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Speaker 1: minus one of six hosting United plus two fifty and

210
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Speaker 1: the draws plus three hundred. Then United one one against

211
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Speaker 1: Brentford and Brentford I mean United should have conceded three

212
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Speaker 1: or four. So they both get out with the draw

213
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Speaker 1: to two for Chelsea one to one United, and now

214
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Speaker 1: they meet at Stanford Bridge. I have no interest in

215
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Speaker 1: betting Chelsea here. I think that a lot of people

216
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Speaker 1: will be looking at you over here. I think I know,

217
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Speaker 1: I'm I'm not laying that had this team I don't trust,

218
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Speaker 1: I would I honestly would bet rather bet United here

219
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Speaker 1: like I'm not betting it. I think this is these

220
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Speaker 1: are two psycho teams going at it, and in that case,

221
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Speaker 1: I don't want to be laying laying juice, like come on,

222
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Speaker 1: So I'm happy to sit this one out, uh and

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Speaker 1: pass it over to you, Anthony.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I took some over three and a half

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Speaker 2: plus one ten. I project this right around three point

226
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Speaker 2: six just blind numbers. I have no problem betting overs

227
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Speaker 2: on either of these teams either. I trust my numbers

228
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Speaker 2: that say that United gives up twenty shots every time

229
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Speaker 2: they get off the bus. It's just at this point

230
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Speaker 2: in the season, we know what they are. I think

231
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Speaker 2: they held Liverpool to nineteen BJ in regulation, so that

232
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Speaker 2: was big for them. Nice job to this, but also

233
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Speaker 2: still conceded twice in over two XG in that match,

234
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Speaker 2: like it was, you know, and that was a whole match.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean Newtontown Brentford gets to thirty you know,

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Speaker 2: every match now, regardless of who they're wolves, you know,

237
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Speaker 2: whether they're ahead, whether they're behind, no matter of the

238
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Speaker 2: game state, you can just pen someone in the other

239
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Speaker 2: team to put up twenty plus shots, you know, even Everton,

240
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Speaker 2: who really have been struggling to create chances twenty three,

241
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Speaker 2: So just kind of consistent barrages on their net. And

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Speaker 2: Chelsea's got the opposite problem where you know, they're getting

243
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Speaker 2: a lot of defensive miscues. They have a lot of

244
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Speaker 2: young players, they're they're relying on their young players to

245
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Speaker 2: consistently perform and it hasn't really worked out because young

246
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Speaker 2: players are inconsistent and that's the result of the situation.

247
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Speaker 2: They're not conceding a ton of shot volume, but whenever

248
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Speaker 2: they do, it tends to get really broken open and

249
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Speaker 2: they tend to you know, obviously, like the first goal

250
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Speaker 2: against Burnley was kind of fluky, the Desaci own goal

251
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Speaker 2: in the FA Cup, Like they've had a lot of

252
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Speaker 2: dumb goals go against them. But also it's a lot

253
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Speaker 2: of switching off and you see that a lot when

254
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Speaker 2: you watch them play. They don't look like they can

255
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Speaker 2: you know, stay focused for the full ninety without conceding.

256
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Speaker 2: So I like over three and a half anything plus money,

257
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Speaker 2: I think it's good. But I'm also intrigued by like

258
00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:38,560
Speaker 2: a fun prop angle here, Like what about like a

259
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Speaker 2: both teams to score, yes, but also a draw parlay

260
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Speaker 2: you know, Like this game to me, you know, whoever's ahead,

261
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Speaker 2: I don't trust them United. We've just discussed Chelsea, like

262
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Speaker 2: we've seen them blow so many leads this year and

263
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Speaker 2: then both attacks are capable from behind as well. Like

264
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Speaker 2: this game to me feels like they're just gonna go

265
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Speaker 2: until eventually it's like two two or three three, and

266
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Speaker 2: then they're just gonna call it. So to me, like

267
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Speaker 2: that's probably a way to look at this. Another draw

268
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Speaker 2: is three to one, so if you throw like both

269
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Speaker 2: teams a score in there, you can probably get up

270
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Speaker 2: to like plus three seventy five. That is another potential

271
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Speaker 2: angle to look at for this game if you're trying

272
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Speaker 2: to get more creative. And I just think that like

273
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Speaker 2: neither team will be out of this game at any point,

274
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Speaker 2: even at two goal deficit. We've seen both teams erase

275
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Speaker 2: and blow at various points of the season.

276
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm taking Chelsea team total over one and a

277
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Speaker 3: half minus one forty. I would even lay over two

278
00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:28,840
Speaker 3: and a half. I want to readout some stats from

279
00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:31,719
Speaker 3: the Brentford game really quick, if you don't mind, three

280
00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:35,720
Speaker 3: point two expected goals, thirty one shots, nineteen passes into

281
00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:39,040
Speaker 3: United's penalty area, and the biggest one of all eighty

282
00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:43,640
Speaker 3: five touches from Brentford in United's penalty area. That is

283
00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:46,880
Speaker 3: the most Premier League team has had in a single

284
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Speaker 3: match over the last five years. That's like, think about that.

285
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Speaker 3: That's insane. So this is a relegation level defense and

286
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Speaker 3: United's not going to change anytime soon. What you saw

287
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Speaker 3: in that Brentford match is just a manager that is

288
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Speaker 3: incredibly stubborn in his way. Is because United continues to

289
00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:04,600
Speaker 3: get the results. So he says, why should I change

290
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Speaker 3: what kept happening? And it's the same thing that happens

291
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Speaker 3: every week is United pressed with all of their front attackers.

292
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Speaker 3: The fullbacks did not come aid in the press. Brentford

293
00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:15,720
Speaker 3: found the easy outlet ball out wide and they just

294
00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:18,439
Speaker 3: had acres of space to run at United over and

295
00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,880
Speaker 3: over and over and over again. Chelsea is a good

296
00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:24,280
Speaker 3: enough build up team to exploit that time and time

297
00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:26,040
Speaker 3: and time again. But like Ynthey said, I don't trust

298
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Speaker 3: Chelsea's defense at all, Like they can get exploited but

299
00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,720
Speaker 3: here by United in transition, even though United hasn't been

300
00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:34,240
Speaker 3: that good offensively, I mean United's bottom five and big

301
00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,160
Speaker 3: scoring chances created, Like it seems like any goal they

302
00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:39,880
Speaker 3: actually score is just like some Rashford banger from outside

303
00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:43,720
Speaker 3: the box or you know, like even against Brentford, like

304
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Speaker 3: they didn't really create anything and then they just got

305
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Speaker 3: one little, nice little passed amount and boom it was goal.

306
00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:49,400
Speaker 3: And that was like, that was it. That was all

307
00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:53,520
Speaker 3: they did against Brentford. So yeah, I have Chelsea projected

308
00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:56,040
Speaker 3: for about two point two goals here, so over one

309
00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:58,120
Speaker 3: and a half minus one forty, and I'd play it

310
00:14:58,160 --> 00:14:59,560
Speaker 3: up to minus one fifty if you want to play

311
00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:02,320
Speaker 3: over too and half. I think anything you know plus

312
00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:03,800
Speaker 3: one fifty are better is good.

313
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Speaker 1: There.

314
00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:07,520
Speaker 3: I just I mean, I'm waiting for shot props to

315
00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:10,680
Speaker 3: come out. Anything under twenty I'm taking on Chelsea. Haven't

316
00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:15,080
Speaker 3: seen any yet, but I just ten even said in

317
00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:17,360
Speaker 3: his press conference, like we're getting results, Like why should

318
00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,360
Speaker 3: I change my philosophies even though they're completely flawed?

319
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Speaker 2: It's really stupid. Yeah, it's very We have plandered United

320
00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:25,480
Speaker 2: so much on this pod that I almost feel bad

321
00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:27,040
Speaker 2: if you're a fan of United and you listen to

322
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Speaker 2: this every week, you probably hate us, but like, you

323
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Speaker 2: guys watch the games too, right, Yeah, it's funny because

324
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Speaker 2: this is a common thing that we get a lot.

325
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Speaker 2: I think it's like, oh, you guys just care about

326
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Speaker 2: the stats and the spreadsheets. You don't even watch the games.

327
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Speaker 2: I'm sorry, Like, do people watch United and think they're.

328
00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:44,800
Speaker 3: Good because they're not.

329
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Speaker 2: You know, it's very nauseating to me when I hear like,

330
00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:50,560
Speaker 2: watch the games and then I'm sitting here watching the game,

331
00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:54,200
Speaker 2: which I do, and then I'm like, oh, that was

332
00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:57,120
Speaker 2: almost another goal against them. Oh they almost conceded again. Oh,

333
00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:00,120
Speaker 2: it's like, well they almost did. Okay, sure, let's try

334
00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,480
Speaker 2: this tight type rope act for another year. I mean,

335
00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:04,520
Speaker 2: it's it's kind of insane. On one hand, I'm kind

336
00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,400
Speaker 2: of rooting for United. I tweeted this right after mount scored.

337
00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:09,720
Speaker 2: It's like, if the United's gonna keep getting these crazy

338
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:11,600
Speaker 2: results to keep tenhag around, we just get to keep

339
00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:14,040
Speaker 2: fading them. I know. I don't even think it's just

340
00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:17,000
Speaker 2: a manager. You know, people have blamed injuries with United.

341
00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:19,000
Speaker 2: I meant Martinez on the pitch at the end of

342
00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:21,480
Speaker 2: that match. They had pretty close to a full strength

343
00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:24,440
Speaker 2: team in that match against Redford. Hoylan was back, had

344
00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:27,400
Speaker 2: an okay game, but he does make their attack better,

345
00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:30,080
Speaker 2: so again helps my over but I think that like

346
00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:32,400
Speaker 2: this defense is pretty close to full strength and still

347
00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:33,280
Speaker 2: can't stop anything.

348
00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:36,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Casimiro is completely washed and they're just putting

349
00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:38,600
Speaker 3: all of their hopes in Maine, who is very good,

350
00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:40,680
Speaker 3: Like you know, he is a very good young midfielder,

351
00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:44,000
Speaker 3: but just putting everything and saying, here, carry us a

352
00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:44,680
Speaker 3: tight game.

353
00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:46,760
Speaker 1: Next to him.

354
00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:49,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just like Mount Mount is something, you know.

355
00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:53,120
Speaker 2: Maybe maybe that's the key, But I'm not believing anything

356
00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:56,000
Speaker 2: will change until its sustained period of change.

357
00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:59,240
Speaker 1: Okay, Uh yeah, I think Anthony's on the right path.

358
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:02,080
Speaker 1: They're like, if you want to bet into this game being.

359
00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:04,160
Speaker 2: Plus three fifty best number I found for you. Yeah,

360
00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:06,920
Speaker 2: you want, let's go team to score and draw, you know.

361
00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:10,040
Speaker 1: A game where everybody leaves upset. Probably think about that

362
00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:10,879
Speaker 1: and then bet into that.

363
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,000
Speaker 2: Chelsea goes up two nil first half, United storms back

364
00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:15,480
Speaker 2: to too exactly.

365
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:19,640
Speaker 1: Praise a million minutes, yeah, exactly eighteen The live drawed

366
00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:22,000
Speaker 1: eighteen to one, and like the eighty ninth minute and

367
00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:22,639
Speaker 1: yeare we go?

368
00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:25,159
Speaker 3: Okay, I feel that have been something.

369
00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:29,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's let's uh, let's move on to Newcastle and

370
00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:34,760
Speaker 1: Everdon next, which is an astonishing, astonishing match. To break

371
00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:39,439
Speaker 1: down Newcastle's odds on at home, we're looking at basically

372
00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:41,840
Speaker 1: the same odds as we saw for Chelsea and United.

373
00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:43,879
Speaker 1: Might just want a six for Newcastle plus two sixty

374
00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:47,800
Speaker 1: for Everton the Druws plus two eighty. Everdon has not

375
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:51,320
Speaker 1: won a match in twenty twenty four. They haven't won

376
00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:55,119
Speaker 1: a match. It was a December sixteenth. They are they

377
00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:57,800
Speaker 1: found in that way? Michael, Yeah, well that's where I was.

378
00:17:57,840 --> 00:17:59,240
Speaker 1: I was going to get into that. I think that

379
00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,119
Speaker 1: there's something that said about that, like and and with

380
00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:04,959
Speaker 1: the news that came out about like the team's finances

381
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,120
Speaker 1: being even just more greed just this year than they

382
00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:11,840
Speaker 1: were in previous seasons. So there, I think that stuff

383
00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:15,760
Speaker 1: does matter when when you are talking about teams and

384
00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 1: handicapping and such, But it's still I don't think it

385
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:23,280
Speaker 1: matters enough to keep me away from Everdon. Once again, I.

386
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:25,720
Speaker 2: Guess that not doing it anymore?

387
00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:28,680
Speaker 1: Why like now it's a look.

388
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:30,760
Speaker 2: Nope, you guys both got them. Last week had like a.

389
00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:33,240
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean it was an even match and

390
00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:35,920
Speaker 1: it went exactly how we expected it to go. Yeah,

391
00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:39,640
Speaker 1: just want his own and like, look.

392
00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:41,440
Speaker 2: It's just not fun anymore. It was fun for a

393
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:43,199
Speaker 2: while and now I got really tired of it and

394
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:48,120
Speaker 2: come out. I'm so it was fun. I enjoyed it,

395
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:49,919
Speaker 2: and look, maybe I'll be back in again at some

396
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,040
Speaker 2: point in the near future. But for the for this week,

397
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 2: last week, who do they have this weekend?

398
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:55,080
Speaker 3: Who do you think they have?

399
00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:56,960
Speaker 2: Don't tell me they have Liverpool.

400
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 3: They have Liverpool.

401
00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:00,920
Speaker 2: The Mercyside Darby is on this weekend.

402
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,040
Speaker 3: No, it's oh sorry, it's not THEO.

403
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,760
Speaker 1: Now they have the next they No, they have Liverpool

404
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 1: April twenty fourth, So we got our time. Yeah, it's okay,

405
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,600
Speaker 1: I really have It's it's Burnley in a in a

406
00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:13,360
Speaker 1: relegation past.

407
00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:18,000
Speaker 3: Six like minus one thirty against them.

408
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,199
Speaker 1: Let me see one of my next you'll bet them

409
00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:22,320
Speaker 1: at the next then their next matches against Chelsea, so

410
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,199
Speaker 1: you'll you'll be on them against Chelsea and you'll be

411
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 1: on them against Liverpool.

412
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,880
Speaker 2: Away to Chelsea. They'll be catching more than a goal there,

413
00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:31,119
Speaker 2: that's that's about. Yeah, it's a home to Forest. No,

414
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:34,639
Speaker 2: home to Liverpool. I mean, yeah, so I got like

415
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 2: I got, I got like a little more in me.

416
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 3: Here.

417
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 1: Look at this scouts a nice little you have a

418
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,040
Speaker 1: nice break obviously because they were off for three weeks

419
00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,679
Speaker 1: before this match. And as I said, it went exactly

420
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,639
Speaker 1: as you expect, like they they're playing okay, and in

421
00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:50,680
Speaker 1: basically stoppage time, Seamus coleman Chess went into his own

422
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 1: goal and from like a very unthreatening.

423
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:54,119
Speaker 3: Nobody was even in the box.

424
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:57,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah it was like that. Yeah, if it was,

425
00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,639
Speaker 1: it was bizarre. But I didn't re to it, like

426
00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 1: I'm obviously pretty numb to it at this point, like

427
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,760
Speaker 1: it's just what happens. But yeah, I mean that's not enough.

428
00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 1: This Newcastle, everdon can't score, Like they can't finish any chances.

429
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:15,840
Speaker 1: I believe that since their last win, they have played

430
00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 1: twelve matches, no wins, five draws, seven losses. They've scored

431
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 1: in those matches, they scored eight goals, and they're expected

432
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 1: goals by understatus close to twenty And I get that

433
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 1: a lot of people think that their underlying numbers are inflated.

434
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,960
Speaker 1: But even if you want to chop chop off, like

435
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,880
Speaker 1: twenty five percent of them. That's still insane. What's going

436
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:40,440
Speaker 1: on here?

437
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:43,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, but we're not even getting that much of a discount.

438
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 2: To me, it's the same price that Newcastle played west

439
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 2: Ham last week. And like we don't think much of west.

440
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 1: Ham, but you think Everdon is better than west Ham

441
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 1: were worse than.

442
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:55,959
Speaker 3: You know, west Ham just finished is better. That's all

443
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:57,400
Speaker 3: it is. That's the only thing they do better.

444
00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:01,439
Speaker 2: Yes, true, Everton is certainly better defensive. I think attack

445
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 2: wise they're worse. They're they're a little two set piece reliant.

446
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:08,600
Speaker 1: But they yeah, but they should they shouldn't they should.

447
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,240
Speaker 1: They are too they have good play like they're their

448
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,879
Speaker 1: strikers should be like more clinical than this. Yes, I

449
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,440
Speaker 1: don't think it's like I don't. This isn't like Neil

450
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 1: Malpey when they had Neil Malpey playing at the top

451
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 1: and we're like, wait for.

452
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:22,880
Speaker 2: Cow reliable dominque Caward low.

453
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 3: Scored.

454
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 1: I mean Ato's on the board now, man, so look

455
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:28,120
Speaker 1: out who.

456
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,640
Speaker 3: He scored against Newcastle the last time too. And here's

457
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 3: the point I want to make. And then I'm sure

458
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:34,399
Speaker 3: people are just like sick of this and they probably

459
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 3: just mute this part. And that's people just skip over

460
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 3: the pod and that's fine. I don't really care.

461
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 2: It's fun. I mean, I'm I think we we have

462
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 2: to open ourselves up to a different thought, right because

463
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,159
Speaker 2: we do the same dance and I love it and

464
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 2: I'm happy to do it. And like obviously, over the

465
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:52,680
Speaker 2: course of a thirty eight match season, they're going to

466
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 2: be certain teams we bet because we disagree with the

467
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 2: market on how good they actually are, and we're gonna

468
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:01,399
Speaker 2: bet them like fifteen times. But you know, when I

469
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 2: see this XG per shot numbers continuing to dwindle and

470
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 2: I see this just how much they're getting from set

471
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 2: pieces versus open play, you know how I feel about

472
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 2: relying exclusively on set pieces to make your attack work.

473
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 1: And set pieces it just feels, it.

474
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 2: Feels very not sustainable sometimes. Arsenal Today, Arsenal.

475
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 1: Got sustainable about not winning a game for since December.

476
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 1: There's nothing like to sustained.

477
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:27,160
Speaker 2: That's the point.

478
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 1: There's nothing to the opposite.

479
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 2: You have no plan B, Like Everton goes down and

480
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:34,200
Speaker 2: they have no they have no.

481
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 1: Way, they don't have any other there's no possibility for

482
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,119
Speaker 1: a plan BE because they don't have any players behind,

483
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,160
Speaker 1: like they're thirteen fourteen guys that they play, that's.

484
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 2: True, but yeah that's against them.

485
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 1: Well I don't think, but right now they're they're not

486
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,879
Speaker 1: like dealing with any injuries and stuff. This is this

487
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 1: should be a team that.

488
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:52,639
Speaker 3: Should be mid table.

489
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:53,360
Speaker 1: Yeah.

490
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 2: Yeah. There were two matches for me that kind of

491
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,640
Speaker 2: just like scared me, which were the Spurs match, which

492
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 2: you know, they created almost everything from set play and

493
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 2: they were awesome. They clearly identified a weakness with Vicario.

494
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 2: They were hammering that edge. They kept getting set pieces

495
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 2: because Spurs can't control a match, and they got the

496
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 2: late equalizer. But I watched the match and I was like, well,

497
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:11,639
Speaker 2: every time the ball was an open play, they couldn't

498
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: do anything against Tottham defense. It's not very good. And

499
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,719
Speaker 2: then the following week they played Palace. It was that

500
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 2: one to one draw on a Monday night game and

501
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 2: it was some of the worst football you'll watch all year.

502
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:24,160
Speaker 2: And then the crowd would roar every time they got

503
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 2: a set piece, and they created a one point five

504
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:30,360
Speaker 2: XG about one point three of it was from set pieces,

505
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,360
Speaker 2: and I'm just like, yeah, but like what happens they

506
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 2: don't get this? What happens if the set pieces go

507
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,639
Speaker 2: against them for a match like the United match, a

508
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 2: couple of dumb tackles and now you're out of it.

509
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 2: So it just feels flimsy given that the market is

510
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 2: still giving them a lot of respect. If the market

511
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 2: was treating them like a shit team, I'd be more

512
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 2: inclined to back them. In this case, the market still

513
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 2: prices them like the Thirteenthish team twelfth. I don't know

514
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,679
Speaker 2: that seems probably fair given what we said about them.

515
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 2: Now we have to kind of readjust down in the

516
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 2: last two months where they still have that won a

517
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 2: match since since football season was in the American football

518
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 2: was playing.

519
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 3: I get all that, and that's wonderful, but let's look

520
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 3: at who they're actually playing in this match. Because Newcastle

521
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 3: can't stop anybody that's transition, Like I know, Everton can't

522
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 3: get anything from open play. But if there is a

523
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 3: team that they could get something against, it's Newcastle ye,

524
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 3: which is lost of sales as well. So now they're

525
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 3: down to really just one true center back. I mean,

526
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 3: they can slot Dan Byurn in there if they really

527
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 3: need to, but it's a makeshift back line. It's a

528
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 3: defense that's going to play a high line and if

529
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 3: you watch some of the goals that they can see

530
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 3: it against west Ham and they's just simple stuff. Like

531
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 3: the first goal that they conceded to west Ham was

532
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 3: just like a very simple ball over the top that

533
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 3: they just miscommunicated on and it was just like a

534
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 3: very easy goal for Antonio, who has been claimed to

535
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 3: be washed on this podcast by somebody and correct, yeah,

536
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 3: no he still is. But and you know, and then

537
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 3: Kudus just kind of dribbles to their entire team and

538
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,440
Speaker 3: you know, essentially off of a set piece, they get

539
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 3: a transition break and there's just one guy back there defending,

540
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 3: like they're like Newcastle's playing so so aggressively that I mean, Everton,

541
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 3: if they were ever going to get chances, they could

542
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 3: do it here and maybe in Newcastle. The last time

543
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 3: they played them, three nothing and all three goals came

544
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,880
Speaker 3: in transition. So I'm doing it again, I don't. I mean,

545
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna I'm probably you know, I'm probably the

546
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 3: definition of insanity at this point, But I don't.

547
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,639
Speaker 1: Another another coin in the slot machine. Baby, let's go.

548
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just another I'm only doing They got a draw, Yeah,

549
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 3: I'm only doing plus a half here, Okay, just get

550
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:27,640
Speaker 3: it like all they need is to draw.

551
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 2: Like I'm gonna say the same thing I said last week,

552
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 2: which is this game screams one one and I was

553
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 2: ready to take my you know, say like, oh look

554
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 2: it ended one one until Seam has decided to have

555
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 2: it not.

556
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 3: People don't understand what he was doing. I just one

557
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 3: mast thing. Newcastle is seventeenth. The next sheep per set

558
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 3: piece allowed. Yeah, Everton's gonna have massive.

559
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 1: Pieces don't count. They just don't don't count.

560
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:51,919
Speaker 2: Part right, just just feels flimsy to me.

561
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:57,160
Speaker 1: Okay, enough of that. We'll be back on Everton again

562
00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 1: next week or this weekend. Forest and Fulham up next.

563
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 1: This one is close to pick them. Forest plus one

564
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 1: fifty at home, Fulham traveling as a slight dog plus

565
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 1: one eighty and the draws plus two forty. Here it

566
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 1: looked like, I know, maybe we got got with the

567
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 1: with Fulham a bit over over the weekend, you know,

568
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 1: shame on us. But I and you guys want to

569
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 1: go the other way. I mean that that was that

570
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 1: was a crazy match. So I don't know, even if

571
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 1: you want to read too much into it, Forrest is

572
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:33,880
Speaker 1: just going to be looking to shut down. It looks

573
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 1: like they're trying to do with PEPs how Pep and

574
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 1: are Teta we're trying to play on Sunday, which is like,

575
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 1: let's just shut everything down, scratch out as many points

576
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 1: as we can. We'll we'll nickel w in here there.

577
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 1: If teams can break us down, we'll tip our caps.

578
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: We'll move on to the next week and continue that

579
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 1: that you know plan. As they try to fight to

580
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 1: stay up and I don't know, Fulham is like, you know,

581
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 1: all that's gonna be all that different here, Like this

582
00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 1: one really feels like a little bit of a rock fight.

583
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:02,400
Speaker 1: I don't think the jaw is bad a bad look

584
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 1: here or if I you know, the nil nil came

585
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,439
Speaker 1: through for us in City Arsenal. If I had to

586
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:08,680
Speaker 1: pick one nil nil special on this tour and it would

587
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,400
Speaker 1: end up being this one, what say you, Anthony?

588
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:13,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, So we just talked about set pieces. Let's talk

589
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 2: about set pieces again. So notam Forrests have conceded eighteen

590
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 2: goals off set pieces this year. That is three more

591
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 2: than every other team. They have conceded that off of

592
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 2: nine point seven xg. That's from the analyst. Fulham this

593
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:31,680
Speaker 2: year have conceded four goals from set pieces. That's comparable

594
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:35,359
Speaker 2: to west Ham arsenal Man City, second lowest in the league.

595
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 2: Only City has conceded fewer, but they've conceded ten point

596
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 2: one x g. So if you're just basing it off

597
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 2: of the shots you're allowing from dead ball situations, Fulham

598
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,639
Speaker 2: has been worse defensively set piece wise than Forrest, but

599
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 2: because set pieces tend to be highly variable, Forest has

600
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 2: run horrendously and I think it has inflated the market

601
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 2: price on Fulham and I like Forrest at Home John

602
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:02,239
Speaker 2: Obett minus one eighteen. I have them closer to what

603
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,640
Speaker 2: they were last week honestly, which they closed plus one twenty.

604
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:07,679
Speaker 2: They're sitting like plus one fifty five one sixty on

605
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 2: the money line. I have them closer to plus one

606
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 2: thirty here. So you know, we've liked Fulham. Fulham had

607
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,439
Speaker 2: some dumb goals they gave away. They were certainly overinflated

608
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 2: in that market price against Sheffield, but we were like, eh,

609
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,399
Speaker 2: we don't really want to back Sheffield because have you

610
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 2: seen them play. I think Forest at Home is a

611
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 2: bye here as long as you can you don't have

612
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,959
Speaker 2: to lay anything like I would not be laying half

613
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 2: or a quarter, but even money minus won eighteen best

614
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 2: price John no Bett, it's good for me.

615
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. You know. The thing about it is

616
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 3: is that Fulham, like we've said, have been more willing

617
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 3: to not play the way that Forest is playing right now,

618
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 3: Like that's how they were playing in the beginning of

619
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 3: the season, and now they're starting to come out, they're

620
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 3: starting to press, they're trying to play out of the

621
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 3: back a little bit more, and that generally leaves you

622
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 3: open to a team like Forest that has paced going

623
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 3: forward in transition that now has narrow threaded. Chris Wood,

624
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 3: by the way, that was an incredible goal against Chris Palace,

625
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 3: like the backwards header. Incredible stuff. Yeah, Anthony hit the

626
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 3: nail on the head. It's just like you know, and

627
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 3: this is kind of just a larger point of just

628
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 3: like relying on like actual goals scored from whatever situation

629
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 3: it is. It's always tends to be a little flimsy

630
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 3: if you don't know what the underlying data is, right,

631
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 3: and we can always tell a story like you know,

632
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 3: I'm not I'm not just gonna sit here and say

633
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 3: the underlying data is like the end all be all,

634
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 3: because there definitely is some weird fluky things that happen

635
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 3: within it. But something so drastic like that with Nottingham

636
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 3: Forrest is you know the reason why is because of

637
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 3: bad goalkeeping play. Essentially, you know, Sales has been okay

638
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 3: in that I guess like he hasn't been terrible. He

639
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 3: hasn't been catastrophic like Turner or the other keeper, but

640
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 3: the most lackademos. Yeah, sorry his name is escaping me.

641
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 3: But yeah, no, I like Forest here Drawno bet again,

642
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 3: like I wouldn't lay anything minus one twenty on the

643
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 3: drama bet line more than that. But yeah, Forest, who's

644
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 3: played much better at home. We actually have been pretty

645
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 3: good UNDERNW No, you know has a positive non penalty

646
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 3: XG diffrench, which is saying something, you know, for a

647
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 3: relegation fodder team. So yeah, I like Forest Ronald bet Here.

648
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 2: Yeah here's the thing, right, So I mean you could

649
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 2: go back and watch every goal. I mean it's hard

650
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 2: to pull up. It's like they've played twenty eight matches.

651
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 2: If you did a compilation of every goal scored against Forrest,

652
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 2: I have a pretty good feeling you'd be like Wow,

653
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 2: what an amazing finish. Wow, what an amazing finish a

654
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 2: lot of times and that can happen. I mean, how

655
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 2: many times do we see a team have awful set

656
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 2: piece defense The guy gets a freeheader at the six

657
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 2: and then he just skies it over the bar and

658
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 2: we're like, oh, got off with that one? Well, I

659
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 2: mean that can happen a bunch of times to a

660
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 2: team or the opposite, Like the Newcastle match to me

661
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 2: sticks out Newcastle played Forest. I think we both bet

662
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 2: the over sailed over ended three to two. Newcastle wins

663
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 2: the match, but they scored two ridiculous set piece finishes.

664
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 2: I'm like, low quality chances where it wasn't even the

665
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 2: goalies fault. It was just like, holy shit, that's a

666
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 2: great finish. You know, in traffic a lot of bodies

667
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 2: found its way to a corner. That can happen to

668
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 2: a team.

669
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 1: For a year.

670
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 2: We saw with Lester last year how bad did they

671
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 2: run on set pieces? You know until late and you

672
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 2: know we do the they conceded so many goals I

673
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 2: mean x gly wise, they were below average, but they

674
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,719
Speaker 2: weren't historic like the goal rates they were giving up.

675
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 2: So you know, set plays you know, can you get

676
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 2: off with the guy having a day kicking the ball

677
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 2: into the box. It's way way more variable. So I

678
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:18,239
Speaker 2: love love Forest here.

679
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 3: I think we should title this episode the Week of

680
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 3: set Pieces.

681
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 1: I know, right, we at.

682
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 3: Talked about a guess.

683
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 2: All right, well we should hire a set piece analyst

684
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 2: as a guest. We should, like all the teams are

685
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 2: hiring now.

686
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 1: Okay, on to Bournemuth and Crystal Palace. The draw here

687
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 1: is plus two eighty, Palace plus three hundred and born

688
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 1: with minus one eighteen at home bourn myth. By the way,

689
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 1: if you go back to December eighteenth, by expected points

690
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 1: at understat are fourth in the table. Since that they've

691
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,479
Speaker 1: they played one more than most but even by like

692
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 1: expected point pre match right there and top six, so

693
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 1: they've been They've been really good for quite a bit.

694
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 1: They of course had a pretty lucky break against Everden,

695
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 1: but uh, I think easy. You know, it was a

696
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 1: win that both of those both if whatever side won

697
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,719
Speaker 1: that match, could have taken and said that they deserved

698
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 1: it or draw whatever Bourne ends up getting the break.

699
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 1: Now they take on a Palace team that is coming

700
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 1: off of a you know, pretty low event draw against uh,

701
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 1: not in a force and like the Lowtontown match Palace,

702
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 1: the attack looked a little bit better. But since even

703
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 1: since glassers taken over, like when you look at the

704
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 1: numbers they've put up, it's it's not been against impressive opposition,

705
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 1: So I think that against a Bournemouth team it's a

706
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: little bit of a struggle. That said, like, I think

707
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 1: this looks a little too high on Bournemouth, so I'd

708
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 1: rather play Palace. But not rushing to bet it here

709
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 1: at all anything for you bj No, I.

710
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:00,959
Speaker 3: Think this line is generally right. Palace have been kind

711
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 3: of interesting under glassner. I don't think we really truly

712
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 3: know what they are, the identity that we think they're

713
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 3: going to be, especially going into next year. But this

714
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 3: line is about right for me. I mean Bournemouth minus

715
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 3: one ten at home, yeah, I mean the think what

716
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 3: Bournemouth was is like they you know, even that match

717
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 3: against Everton, they went when Solanke scored which was just

718
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 3: a mini miscommunication between the two center backs on the header,

719
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 3: which was again the only big scoring chance they had

720
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 3: in the match. They didn't take a shot for the

721
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 3: remainder of the match after they scored that, so I

722
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 3: think you could poke some holes here with Bournemouth, like

723
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 3: there's a world where Palace beats them in transition a

724
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 3: few times and maybe in knicks a goal. But yeah,

725
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 3: I think this line is about right.

726
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I mean this for me is the

727
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 2: most likely zero zero. Like you could see a world

728
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 2: where Bournemouth's strategy of trying to play long balls doesn't

729
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 2: really work against a Palace defense that's just like going

730
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 2: to be ready for those types of situations. You could

731
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 2: see a world where Bournemouth is sending in a tone

732
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 2: of crosses and Palace is like pretty well equipped to

733
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 2: defend those. They tend to struggle when teams are able

734
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 2: to enter play in the middle, especially because they don't

735
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 2: really have like their midfield ball winning anymore to cover

736
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 2: the space. So that's not really where moremans best. They're

737
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 2: just going to swing crosses in all day, and you know,

738
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 2: if it doesn't work, this game could get ugly. So

739
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 2: I agree with all of you and that we're not

740
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 2: going to bet this one.

741
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 1: Okay, we were all looking to bet Burnley in this

742
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,280
Speaker 1: next one, but to me, the number is just too short.

743
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 1: Now the Clarts are plus one eighty at home Wolverhampton

744
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 1: traveling at plus one forty banged ub Wolverhampton and that

745
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 1: draws plus two sixty Anthony. Because it's still is there

746
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 1: still a shred of value left on the all of

747
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 1: a sudden live to stay up Clarets and Vincent Company.

748
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 1: They've gotten some help from the financial fair play GUIDs,

749
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 1: but yeah, they're still in it with a couple more

750
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 1: results and they still play some teams around them. But

751
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 1: how are you betting this one between Burnley and Wolves.

752
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you look at Burnley schedule. You mentioned it.

753
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 2: They're still going to host for us. They're still going

754
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,720
Speaker 2: to go to Burnley or go to Sheffield, go to Everton.

755
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 2: You know, they could make it work maybe, but the

756
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,279
Speaker 2: attack is trended up right, so you don't want to

757
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 2: just believe in like a mirage of a short sample.

758
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 2: But the attack has scored six and three games and

759
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:15,839
Speaker 2: that's notable to me. I mean a couple of them

760
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:19,759
Speaker 2: were outside of the penalty area, banger type finishes. They

761
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 2: got a gift of an own goal from west Ham,

762
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 2: you know, so there there has been some like voodoo

763
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 2: in the in the improvement, but they also have changed

764
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 2: how they're playing and I think that makes them pretty

765
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:34,279
Speaker 2: live in this matchup against Wolves, who we kind of

766
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 2: saw it. It's just like the attacking quality is so

767
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 2: poor for them right now with all their preserves, and

768
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:42,839
Speaker 2: it's not even just the three attackers. Kunya maybe back here.

769
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 2: We thought he'd be back for the weekend, he wasn't.

770
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 2: Bella guard being out and Craig Dawson like, it's essentially

771
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 2: five starters are out for Wolves, and the market has

772
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 2: taken notice of this. They keep taking money against Wolves.

773
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 2: Villa got steamed up from minus one sixty one to

774
00:35:57,600 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 2: fifty five when we recorded, all the way up to

775
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:02,879
Speaker 2: minus one ninety and Burnley has been steadily coming down here.

776
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 2: And the problem is now that it kind of has

777
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 2: come past the point where I want to bet them,

778
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 2: but it would certainly be Burnley or nothing for me.

779
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:11,879
Speaker 2: Don't hate them on a money line shout you're gonna

780
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:14,759
Speaker 2: use them as an underdog parlay piece. But kind of

781
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 2: like the rest of the slate, they got bet down

782
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 2: too low. It's basically a pick them now, and we

783
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 2: don't really love any other dogs. So I'm going to

784
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:23,479
Speaker 2: pass here with a lean toward Burnley and consider them

785
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 2: if Wolves comes in here. Maybe Cooney gets in the lineup,

786
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:28,439
Speaker 2: they take some money. I would take Burnley plus a quarter.

787
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 1: Okay, on to Tottenham traveling to west Ham to take

788
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 1: on the Hammers. West Ham is a home underdog plus

789
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 1: two ten Spurs plus one to ten. The jaw is

790
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 1: three to one. I like Spurs here.

791
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:40,840
Speaker 2: I was.

792
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 1: I know that they're a pretty short underdog considering where

793
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:48,239
Speaker 1: these two teams are in the table right Tottenham in

794
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 1: fifth place and west Ham put two spots behind them

795
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 1: in seventh with one more match played. But we know

796
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 1: that this west Ham team, I mean, we just were

797
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 1: having a conversation if we thought ever was a better

798
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 1: team than them, and evertten they are terrible and will

799
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 1: ruin your life. So that should tell you where the

800
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 1: You know, the sentiment that we have for for west

801
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 1: Ham is as a as a team. You look at

802
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,759
Speaker 1: the underlying numbers, they're ugly. The only three teams with

803
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 1: fewer expectacles against the season and those three teams are

804
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 1: Newton Town, Sheffield United and Burnley. It's not getting much

805
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:25,280
Speaker 1: better obviously that the match this weekend against Newcastle United

806
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 1: was a bit of an indictment on the defense. They

807
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 1: had a decent showing I think against Aston Villa Saint

808
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 1: Patrick's Theay weekend. But before that, I mean a two

809
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 1: to two draw against Burnley, not much going on there,

810
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 1: and then having nobody's gonna right home about a three

811
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 1: to one win against Everton right now? Is we all know?

812
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 1: So I think Spurs have every chance to just run

813
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 1: rampant here and turn this thing into a bit of

814
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 1: a track meet, and west Ham just doesn't have the

815
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,320
Speaker 1: horses to keep up. So I think Spurs at plus

816
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:55,720
Speaker 1: money is fine, Anthony.

817
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 2: You don't think they have the horses not to do.

818
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 2: That's my thing. West Ham is not defending anymore. We

819
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 2: can acknowledge that. You watch the match against Newcastle, no

820
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:07,839
Speaker 2: defense none, But like if they get into a back

821
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:12,320
Speaker 2: and forth battle with Spurs, two positive great shot stoppers

822
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 2: and like I don't know, Kudis Bowen and Pakatav versus

823
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:21,400
Speaker 2: Werner's son Madison Richie's probably still out, so Brendan Johnson,

824
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 2: I mean, are they that much worse?

825
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 1: I believe so. I think they're they're to make up

826
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 1: for their defensive misgivings. I think they're gonna have to

827
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 1: go a little bit further here than Spurs. In my mind,

828
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 1: but also like they're at.

829
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 2: Home and they're pretty solid, dog, I just can't I

830
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 2: can't trust Spurs defensively enough to lay it here. I

831
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 2: think Spurs are you know, if they're down, maybe consider

832
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:47,359
Speaker 2: a live bet. That's That's kind of how I've been

833
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:49,319
Speaker 2: with Tottenham this year. They keep scoring coming out of

834
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 2: half every match, within the first ten minutes. It's kind

835
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 2: of amazing.

836
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 3: Just to tot them to score next coming in a

837
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 3: half of time exactly.

838
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 2: That's what I in the second half I.

839
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 3: Taught them at half against Lutontown because like they're just

840
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 3: they're so good out a halftime. It's crazy.

841
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 1: I mean, when you hear and you know, just say

842
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:09,479
Speaker 1: wonderful things about you for fifteen minutes in the middle

843
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:11,359
Speaker 1: of a of a soccer match, it must be nice.

844
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 1: He just he comes in strokes. Everybody's ego tells him.

845
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 1: You know, I asked about their kids and their families, I'm sure,

846
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 1: and then they go, you're feeling good about yourself, you

847
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 1: go back out there. You want to you want to

848
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:22,880
Speaker 1: you want to perform. So I think it makes some

849
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 1: sense anything for you here, BJ.

850
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:26,759
Speaker 3: I'm thinking, as we're in this is kind of just

851
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 3: as we're recording. This just kind of popped in my

852
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 3: mind a little. Both teams to score. Parlay this match

853
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 3: and the Chelsea United match. You both are sitting around

854
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 3: minus two fifty, so you can get you know, a

855
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 3: decent parlay number just betting both of those matches, both

856
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 3: teams to score, because I actually do like, I only

857
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,040
Speaker 3: project three point six goals for this and over three

858
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 3: and a half is about it even money, So I

859
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 3: can't really play over three and a half here. But

860
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 3: this match, especially with how open it's gonna be, in

861
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:54,680
Speaker 3: how end to end style it is. I mean, I

862
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:56,360
Speaker 3: just really want to back both teams to score, but

863
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna play minus two sixties. So parlaying that

864
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:02,919
Speaker 3: with United Chelsea I think might might be a way

865
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 3: to go to actually get you know, at least smacking

866
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:05,839
Speaker 3: on this match.

867
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:07,879
Speaker 2: What about a first half under?

868
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:13,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe it's kind of tempting. I'll say this, if

869
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:15,839
Speaker 3: for Charleston plays, I will bet him to score a goal.

870
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, yeah, I mean first half under live over

871
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 2: off a slow start, maybe live Tottenham. Maybe there's all

872
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:24,239
Speaker 2: kind of different ways think about this. I I just

873
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:25,759
Speaker 2: don't really want to force a bet.

874
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's more, it's a it's a live betting game.

875
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 3: If if anything, I agree with Anthony.

876
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:33,280
Speaker 1: All right, we could quickly go through Arsenal and Lowtontown

877
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 1: here laying it yep, nine hundred for Arsenal.

878
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 3: Saw the light.

879
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's Anthony's in, He's in. He's in Arsenal betting

880
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 1: them to win the Champions League final.

881
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:49,120
Speaker 3: It finally believes. Yeah, it's nice, it's nice.

882
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 1: Here's those footsteps coming.

883
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 2: We are two points ahead on on Liverpool right, Liverpool's

884
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 2: two points ahead with nine to play, and my Liverpool

885
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 2: above Arsenal ticket, which has been one of the more

886
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:03,839
Speaker 2: fun sweats honestly for a minus one ten season long future.

887
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:05,319
Speaker 2: I probably could have just bought a bitcoin and we

888
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 2: made more, made way more money on that investment. But yeah,

889
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:13,359
Speaker 2: Liverpool two points clear and Arsenal will win this game

890
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 2: by however many they want. Yep, the first meeting one

891
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 2: of the more misleading final scorers you'll ever see. Talk

892
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:22,720
Speaker 2: about set piece variants, by the way, Yeah, because louton

893
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:25,320
Speaker 2: Town like got across and then put it in the corner,

894
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 2: and then got another cross and then put it in

895
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 2: the corner. I think one of them was a set

896
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:31,760
Speaker 2: piece maybe both uh and then Arsenal you know, wins

897
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:35,360
Speaker 2: it in Arsenal time, but like the match was not

898
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 2: entirely uncompetitive otherwise total domination from Arsenal. They played pretty

899
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 2: poorly I thought in the final third and still got

900
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:44,439
Speaker 2: to two x two plus x G. And now they're

901
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 2: at home and we have seen Lowton Town go for it,

902
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 2: go for it, go for it, and they have some

903
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 2: paddlings coming their way.

904
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 3: Mm hmm, yeah, I think the thing is gonna get paddled.

905
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:56,440
Speaker 2: By City too, Like, yeah, we talked about a lost week.

906
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 2: It's like championship level defenders.

907
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then they all got hurt another what's the

908
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 3: over under of goals conceded between them then? And Luton

909
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:08,720
Speaker 3: Town's well, I guess they're gonna play Bournemouth in between

910
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 3: the City and Arsenal matches.

911
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:12,319
Speaker 2: They just blew a three no lead to Bournemouth too,

912
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 2: talking about a motivation spot for them, I know, kind

913
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 2: of languishing in the mid table. Luton Town just blew

914
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 2: a three goal lead against them two weeks ago. We're

915
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 2: gonna bet looton this weekend.

916
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 3: I don't think I'm bet the over o.

917
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:27,879
Speaker 2: But three it's three and a half.

918
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:29,879
Speaker 3: It's it's they're up to three and a half now

919
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 3: like plus one twenty. No, I might be short. Yeah.

920
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 3: The thing about it is is like, okay, if you

921
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 3: the match I want to point to is when Lutontown

922
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 3: played Manchester City when they really tried to go for it,

923
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 3: when they really tried demand a man everything, and you

924
00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:47,560
Speaker 3: just watched City just make like simple runs off the

925
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 3: back line. I mean it's like it's simple stuff, it's

926
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 3: not even hard. So that was what's that?

927
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:56,280
Speaker 2: Wasn't that at Luton in the f I was at Louton.

928
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:58,919
Speaker 3: Yep, six to two was the final score. I think

929
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 3: the funny, like, the the biggest question is like does

930
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:03,800
Speaker 3: Louton score in this match? I think it's very interesting

931
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 3: because they keep they keep scoring like the Scordians Liverpool,

932
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:09,359
Speaker 3: the Scordian City where the three gets Arsenal. They can't

933
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 3: just score Spurs and both team score. No is like

934
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:14,400
Speaker 3: minus one ten and I'm actually projecting value on that,

935
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 3: but I'm not gonna play it. But yeah, no, laying

936
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 3: with Arsenal minus two and a half. I just don't

937
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 3: really see a world where Loutontown even like stops them

938
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:24,800
Speaker 3: you know, if you want to look for like a

939
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:27,920
Speaker 3: comparison match, like go look at what Arsenal did to

940
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:30,880
Speaker 3: Sheffield United at Sheffield because like that's the level of

941
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 3: what we're at right now with Lutontown. They are the

942
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:35,359
Speaker 3: worst defense in the Premier League. They've conceded twenty two

943
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 3: expected goals in their last nine matches. That's like two

944
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:40,839
Speaker 3: and a half per ninety. So yeah, Arsenal can't pick

945
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 3: what they want.

946
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 2: Arsenal have done a better job of running up scores,

947
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 2: that was and they need to.

948
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:48,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, Arteta.

949
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:51,319
Speaker 2: Has become less of a the game is over, let's

950
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:53,399
Speaker 2: just pass the ball around guy. In the second half,

951
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:55,920
Speaker 2: they have gone for the juggular and actually run up

952
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:58,359
Speaker 2: the score on some ship teams. Pallas five nil even

953
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:00,760
Speaker 2: though like all of them were set pieces, west Ham

954
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 2: six nil, and then of course the Sheffield I don't

955
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 2: even know how many scored they match. I've I already

956
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 2: forgot six black out of my mind. The I think

957
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 2: it was six by half or five by half.

958
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 3: Yeah it was five, it was five, and like the first.

959
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 2: Fortunate to me this is like yeah, maybe Luton nicks

960
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:18,319
Speaker 2: one and like we could we could lose three to one.

961
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:20,759
Speaker 2: That's like the only scenario where I think we're in

962
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:21,879
Speaker 2: deep shit.

963
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 3: Yeah. So the one thing I want to mention before this,

964
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 3: because if Luton Town's gonna go man to man the

965
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,879
Speaker 3: way Arsenal plays with, I'm dropping avert and node guards

966
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:31,879
Speaker 3: so deep and build up like it's just gonna create

967
00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 3: so much space and then they're just gonna play easy

968
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:35,879
Speaker 3: balls like it and that's gonna happen over and over

969
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 3: and over again. So Arsenal, pick your score. If you

970
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 3: want to lay three and a half, four and a half,

971
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:40,920
Speaker 3: five and a half, go ahead.

972
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 1: And do it. Yeah, even money, right and a half.

973
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:44,920
Speaker 2: I actually projected a two point six to one.

974
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:48,520
Speaker 1: Let's talk Uh, let's talk about Brentford and Brighton. This

975
00:44:48,600 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 1: would be the podcast Darby if it was a couple

976
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 1: of years ago. I still obviously have a lot of

977
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 1: love for these these two teams, for the way they've

978
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:59,200
Speaker 1: they've treated us over the years. Pretty much pick them.

979
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 1: It's at brent draw is plus two eighty. Uh. Yeah.

980
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 1: I actually find this to be a pretty uninteresting match

981
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 1: in terms of betting wise, which is I guess that's

982
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:12,880
Speaker 1: what happens when when when these two teams meet I

983
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 1: don't really have many thoughts. I mean, we know that

984
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:20,720
Speaker 1: this Brentford team is should be better than the results.

985
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 1: They looked great today in a in a one will

986
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 1: in a one to one draw that was coming on

987
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 1: the heels of a run where they didn't look all

988
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:31,839
Speaker 1: that encouraging, So maybe they've they've kind of turned a

989
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:35,799
Speaker 1: corner here. But then you tossed Brighton in the mix

990
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:41,400
Speaker 1: and I thought, fine performance and against Liverpool at at Anfield,

991
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:43,479
Speaker 1: But I don't know, man, like bj you you seem

992
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 1: to have more conviction than Anthony or myself, so we'll

993
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 1: just turn it over to you.

994
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm leaning towards Brentford in this match. I've generally

995
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:54,480
Speaker 3: just kind of I don't know if like I've soured

996
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 3: on Deservey. I just think that he's kind of run

997
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:59,839
Speaker 3: his course at Brighton and like the playbooks out and

998
00:45:59,880 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 3: he doesn't really have a plan B and he's not

999
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:05,839
Speaker 3: and he's too stubborn to do anything else because and

1000
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 3: you know, with Brentford obviously having in Buemo back, he

1001
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:11,840
Speaker 3: came off the bench against United, even Wesa was amazing

1002
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 3: against United, so you know, Brentford does have outlets going forward,

1003
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:17,720
Speaker 3: and I know we over you know, it's been overblown

1004
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 3: a little bit Brighton's transition to defense, but they're still

1005
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:24,839
Speaker 3: nineteenth and final third box entry conversion rate. Brentford's number

1006
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:27,239
Speaker 3: one in that category. So like Brentford has a good

1007
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 3: advantage there. And even if you just look through you

1008
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 3: know what Brighton has done. If you remove so Brighton

1009
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 3: basically over their last eleven matches, they had one match

1010
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:43,000
Speaker 3: where they just routed Sheffield United for five nothing. If

1011
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:45,560
Speaker 3: you just look at their other ten matches, he give

1012
00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 3: me left eleven matches. So if you just look at

1013
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:50,319
Speaker 3: their previous their other ten matches, they've only created ten

1014
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 3: expected goals in those matches. Like the offense, I mean, Tom,

1015
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:55,800
Speaker 3: I think I've said the quote every podcast, but Thomas

1016
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:58,319
Speaker 3: Frank just said, you gotta get Brighton what they want

1017
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 3: or you just got to sit back. He knows the

1018
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:02,960
Speaker 3: playbook on them, he knows what to do. It's Brentford

1019
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 3: at home. They've played much better at home. They're died.

1020
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 3: I mean, they're so not only desperate but overdue for

1021
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:12,840
Speaker 3: a positive result that I'm not really sure they should

1022
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:16,040
Speaker 3: be underdogs here at home. So I'm probably gonna end

1023
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:18,479
Speaker 3: up taking Brentford. If I can get drawn no bett

1024
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:19,959
Speaker 3: at anything plus money.

1025
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:20,799
Speaker 2: How do we not like the under?

1026
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 3: I know that's interesting, right.

1027
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:25,799
Speaker 2: Because yeah, we just talked about this two weeks ago

1028
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:28,360
Speaker 2: with Brighton. They go under again today. They got a

1029
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:30,759
Speaker 2: little lucky there, but the attack created nothing at Landfield,

1030
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 2: I mean, well by get that nice banger to burn

1031
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:35,440
Speaker 2: my first half under in the game. Stayed under, but

1032
00:47:35,840 --> 00:47:39,399
Speaker 2: they created nothing. And then against Forrest, a team who

1033
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:41,840
Speaker 2: you know, gave Brighton the ball and sat very deep,

1034
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 2: they got nothing. Brighton is actually a decent defense compared

1035
00:47:45,520 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 2: to like the Brentford opponent from last weekend. It's totally

1036
00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 2: sitting at three to me like that seems high and

1037
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:53,839
Speaker 2: I know what that means in the year of twenty

1038
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:55,919
Speaker 2: twenty four in the prem Yeah, this is my under.

1039
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 3: It means two stoppage time goals, That's what it means.

1040
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 2: But yeah, three and a half three even money is

1041
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 2: good by me.

1042
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 1: All right, Let's let's round out this part of the

1043
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 1: show with a another massively lapsided line, this one taking

1044
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:15,239
Speaker 1: place at Anfield, Liverpool minus fourteen hundred against.

1045
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 3: Cheff Please please, for the love of God.

1046
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:24,040
Speaker 1: Twenty five to one and the draw it's twelve to one. Yeah,

1047
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 1: I mean it's four. It's it's ugly obviously.

1048
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 3: And now yeah, we have the highest total level.

1049
00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:31,000
Speaker 1: You can I can I say what you know, it's

1050
00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:36,839
Speaker 1: crazy when Brentford, like when Brentford was nineteen to one

1051
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:39,000
Speaker 1: against City and beat them and Palace was like twenty

1052
00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 1: to one? Was that the year before that and beat City?

1053
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 1: Like those those were like adequate size, right, like like

1054
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 1: Brentford was obviously really good and you were getting dealt.

1055
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 2: It was like the thirteenth place Palace team and.

1056
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 1: Like, yeah, exactly like you were getting dealt with Benford team.

1057
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:55,760
Speaker 1: You were getting dealt twenty to one on these teams

1058
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 1: and they were they were basically wolves, right like where

1059
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:01,919
Speaker 1: wolves are this in? And now we're looking at this number,

1060
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 1: like this number should be a lot higher.

1061
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was going to ask BJ So I was

1062
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 2: gonna say, where do you have this? I'm kind of

1063
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:12,719
Speaker 2: curious you're lower.

1064
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:15,759
Speaker 3: A little a little smidge under twenty five to one,

1065
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 3: twenty four point nine, I guess you could say.

1066
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:18,759
Speaker 1: So.

1067
00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, so Liverpool do have some extra variance in there

1068
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:23,399
Speaker 2: because their defense isn't as elite as like, yeah, those

1069
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 2: usual City teams are but I have this at twenty

1070
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 2: nine to one.

1071
00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:30,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it just seems to score anybody, see,

1072
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:33,719
Speaker 1: I like I think betting, So anyway, I do have

1073
00:49:33,760 --> 00:49:35,440
Speaker 1: a bet like in this match, I should say it,

1074
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 1: and it is going with in Sheffield United. It's corner.

1075
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 1: I like them to score first.

1076
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:43,520
Speaker 3: There we go, which happens? Going for it right?

1077
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:45,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean yeah exactly, they're going for it like

1078
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:49,759
Speaker 1: we see it from Liverpool quite a bit. I don't

1079
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 1: know if like why why we see it from Liverpool.

1080
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 1: They seem to be a team that used to just

1081
00:49:57,200 --> 00:50:00,799
Speaker 1: like come out gang Buster is in there in like

1082
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 1: their salad salad days. But now like the past, it's

1083
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:07,360
Speaker 1: not just the season two like we've we've seen it

1084
00:50:07,360 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 1: a few times. So I don't know, why wouldn't you

1085
00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:13,319
Speaker 1: Why wouldn't you bet that? If if anything in this match,

1086
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:15,600
Speaker 1: I think it's I mean you could you could still

1087
00:50:15,680 --> 00:50:18,439
Speaker 1: you can bet Liverpool minus whatever minus three and a half,

1088
00:50:18,440 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 1: minus four and a half and they could still give

1089
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:23,239
Speaker 1: up that first goal. You can cast your Sheffield United

1090
00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:25,719
Speaker 1: to score first and still you know, get the weirdest

1091
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:30,360
Speaker 1: middle of all time, uh with uh with United Sheffield

1092
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 1: units still scoring first. So I don't know.

1093
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:33,280
Speaker 2: Liverpool will win from behind.

1094
00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:36,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, like Liverpool from behind. I think it's fine.

1095
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:39,959
Speaker 2: How how does Liverpool lose this match or even tie

1096
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:40,440
Speaker 2: this match?

1097
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:43,840
Speaker 1: I should say Sheffield units the four and a half to.

1098
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:49,440
Speaker 2: Vintage uns I think is the only way where they

1099
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 2: just miss hit the post four times.

1100
00:50:50,680 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 1: It's supposed a bunch because.

1101
00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 2: Klop is playing a style that yes, like they're not

1102
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:57,360
Speaker 2: defending as much as the Arsenal and City. But you

1103
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:00,040
Speaker 2: know we're talking this off air bj mm hm in

1104
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:01,919
Speaker 2: front of the pod. John McKenzie tweeted this like they're

1105
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:04,920
Speaker 2: just going for it and just betting they're gonna outscore everybody,

1106
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:07,879
Speaker 2: and it's been pretty effective. Sheffield did a nice job

1107
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 2: in the first meeting, held them two. One came in

1108
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:13,960
Speaker 2: stoppage time. But again, I guess where this match is

1109
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:14,680
Speaker 2: being played.

1110
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 3: Place where nobody wins.

1111
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:18,319
Speaker 2: The fortress and it is stuck. I mean it is

1112
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:21,400
Speaker 2: the largest delta between home and a road is Liverpool,

1113
00:51:21,440 --> 00:51:23,160
Speaker 2: and I think they might get picked off on the road,

1114
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:25,080
Speaker 2: but it's hard for me to see them dropping any

1115
00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:26,399
Speaker 2: points at anfield the rest of the season.

1116
00:51:26,520 --> 00:51:29,600
Speaker 3: Yes, Sheffield is plus four fifty to score first for.

1117
00:51:29,520 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 1: Everybody else yeah, and Liverpool's plus five fifty to win

1118
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:35,520
Speaker 1: from behind. So I think, actually, if you're gonna if

1119
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 1: you're gonna play one, if you're gonna play one, you

1120
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 1: might as well just play both. Like you know, I

1121
00:51:39,239 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 1: don't think I've led you parlay that, but they won't

1122
00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:43,120
Speaker 1: let your parlay. But like you could just split your

1123
00:51:43,120 --> 00:51:45,280
Speaker 1: stake almost like exactly.

1124
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:50,120
Speaker 3: Sheffield Sheffield sixteen to one money line said the first

1125
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 3: ten minutes, first ten minute money line Jesus.

1126
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:54,800
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean that's the way to go. I

1127
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 1: think that's the way to go.

1128
00:51:56,280 --> 00:52:00,399
Speaker 3: I think I mind Sheffield Sheffield sixteen to one. Uh,

1129
00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 3: you can do it on about three sixty five. It's

1130
00:52:02,520 --> 00:52:06,120
Speaker 3: under the minutes tab ten minute result Sheffield money Line

1131
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:06,839
Speaker 3: sixteen to one.

1132
00:52:07,120 --> 00:52:08,200
Speaker 2: I'll pass.

1133
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 3: I'm gonna throw. I'm gonna throw some money on that.

1134
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 1: I think.

1135
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:12,560
Speaker 2: I think the score first win from behind is the

1136
00:52:12,560 --> 00:52:16,880
Speaker 2: best interesting. It's it's at least interesting. This is not

1137
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:19,399
Speaker 2: a Norge team total over situation from the old days

1138
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:21,319
Speaker 2: against Liverpool, but pretty close.

1139
00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 3: Well, team to score is plus money right now, it's

1140
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:25,319
Speaker 3: like you know plus yeah.

1141
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:28,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, So all right, Well, I think we actually did

1142
00:52:28,680 --> 00:52:30,359
Speaker 1: a pretty good job of coming up with a way

1143
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:32,120
Speaker 1: to get some action on that match.

1144
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:36,000
Speaker 3: Sheffield has a couple of strikers now right, Yeah, Baron,

1145
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:40,000
Speaker 3: Bernie Archer, Like there's they've had all the.

1146
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:43,840
Speaker 2: Barrenton, They've had McBurnie and Archer all year. They just

1147
00:52:44,040 --> 00:52:44,439
Speaker 2: know what state.

1148
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 3: Well mc burnie has been hurt for it quite a bit.

1149
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, Mcburney's just just a all three healthy, right yeah, okay,

1150
00:52:51,680 --> 00:52:54,120
Speaker 1: all right, good, good job. I'm proud of of the

1151
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:57,279
Speaker 1: three part of us for doing that. All right, quick,

1152
00:52:57,360 --> 00:53:01,440
Speaker 1: let's just be real quick with the Cup matches in Germany,

1153
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:05,600
Speaker 1: France and Italy. If you have anything here, bj anything

1154
00:53:05,640 --> 00:53:05,799
Speaker 1: on the.

1155
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:10,719
Speaker 3: Street, I'll do Adelanta on the road against Fiorentina just

1156
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:13,000
Speaker 3: generally not a lot of team that is playing much

1157
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 3: much better. They just got a wonderful three no result

1158
00:53:16,200 --> 00:53:19,400
Speaker 3: against Napoli over the weekend. Fiorentina obviously a team that

1159
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:22,040
Speaker 3: has overformed their expected metrics, a team that is good

1160
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:23,480
Speaker 3: at getting the ball in the final third, but once

1161
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 3: they get there things tend to really fall apart. And

1162
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:29,759
Speaker 3: Adelanta is a really good stolid defense. And how about Scamaka.

1163
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:32,040
Speaker 3: He's been incredible this season for Autlanta. He's had this

1164
00:53:32,120 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 3: big resurgence, actually become a really good striker, probably going

1165
00:53:35,160 --> 00:53:37,280
Speaker 3: to start up top for Italy honestly at the Euros

1166
00:53:37,320 --> 00:53:41,120
Speaker 3: this season. So you know, Adelanta, I think they're generally

1167
00:53:41,120 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 3: a way better team than Florentina, and right now you

1168
00:53:42,760 --> 00:53:46,320
Speaker 3: can get them as a short dog on the road

1169
00:53:46,440 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 3: in the first leg of Copo Italia. So I'll go

1170
00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:49,680
Speaker 3: out Alanta.

1171
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:52,320
Speaker 2: At Alanta visits anfield in about ten days.

1172
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 3: I know Sheffield United, Adelanta Parlay.

1173
00:53:56,600 --> 00:54:01,879
Speaker 1: Anybody there you got anything on these three or no?

1174
00:54:01,920 --> 00:54:03,920
Speaker 2: Nothing? Say tune of the discord. I'll post anything that

1175
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:06,839
Speaker 2: I actually bet h haven't had a ton of time

1176
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:09,000
Speaker 2: to go through it with the holiday today, so I'm

1177
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 2: gonna get gonna get around to that ahead of the

1178
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:14,400
Speaker 2: head of the matches on Tuesday, all right, Solbroucking is

1179
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:17,920
Speaker 2: an action for what it's worth. So the pocal amazing

1180
00:54:18,200 --> 00:54:20,200
Speaker 2: and they're barely a dog. So we could get like

1181
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:22,680
Speaker 2: a Levercuzen Sourbrucking final the Electrich.

1182
00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 1: That would be fun. Okay, that brings us we, Like

1183
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 1: I said, we are skipping our three like underdog Parlay.

1184
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:34,360
Speaker 1: Thanks to Anthony pj.

1185
00:54:34,719 --> 00:54:39,880
Speaker 2: Not one likes Everton at three to one. Yeah, Sheffield

1186
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:44,560
Speaker 2: United at twenty eight to one. Yep, and don't bet them,

1187
00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:46,080
Speaker 2: maybe Everton, don't bet Jeffield.

1188
00:54:47,560 --> 00:54:49,520
Speaker 1: Okay, So that brings us the best bets for the

1189
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:52,840
Speaker 1: mid week matches Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Anthony, you can go first.

1190
00:54:53,040 --> 00:54:57,120
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Nottingham Forest drawn no bet minus

1191
00:54:57,120 --> 00:55:00,840
Speaker 2: one eighteen at home against Fulham. And I think that

1192
00:55:00,960 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 2: the set piece variants has played a major role in

1193
00:55:04,040 --> 00:55:06,560
Speaker 2: the perception of these teams. It has inflated Fulham a

1194
00:55:06,560 --> 00:55:08,920
Speaker 2: little bit in the market and most importantly, it's underrated

1195
00:55:09,160 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 2: Nottingham Forest in the market. We just saw Forest play Palace,

1196
00:55:12,520 --> 00:55:14,920
Speaker 2: a team that I don't think is particularly worse than

1197
00:55:14,920 --> 00:55:17,160
Speaker 2: Fulham overall. I think a lot, you know, a lot

1198
00:55:17,200 --> 00:55:18,879
Speaker 2: of those teams are in that same kind of tier.

1199
00:55:19,560 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 2: And they closed plus one fifteen. Now we're getting them,

1200
00:55:22,680 --> 00:55:26,200
Speaker 2: you know, plus one fifty on the money line against Fulham.

1201
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 2: And as much as Fulham's been resurgent, they've improved. They

1202
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:32,960
Speaker 2: have conceded more from open play and they've created less

1203
00:55:33,000 --> 00:55:35,600
Speaker 2: from open play than Forrest this season. I think that

1204
00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:37,400
Speaker 2: kind of gets to the point here. These two teams

1205
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:40,400
Speaker 2: aren't all that different, and the market says that Fulham's

1206
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:43,200
Speaker 2: a lot better. Thus we get Forest at home as

1207
00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 2: a pick them. I like them in this matchup.

1208
00:55:45,160 --> 00:55:49,239
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm going to go with your boys Spurs as

1209
00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:52,319
Speaker 1: a plus one ten road favorite at west Ham. I

1210
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:54,800
Speaker 1: know you guys are a little bit lukewarm on the

1211
00:55:54,880 --> 00:55:57,320
Speaker 1: idea here, but I think that the west Ham defense,

1212
00:55:58,440 --> 00:56:00,640
Speaker 1: the west Ham attack has a lot more work to

1213
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:03,440
Speaker 1: do to make up for their defensive misgivings than the

1214
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:08,200
Speaker 1: Tottenham attack has to do with their defensive risky defensive play,

1215
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 1: Spurs are seemed to be firing on cililators. I like

1216
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:13,320
Speaker 1: the way that they're trending just generally as well. I

1217
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:16,839
Speaker 1: think that this west Ham team continues to be one

1218
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:20,280
Speaker 1: that I want to go against when they're facing competent attacks.

1219
00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:23,239
Speaker 1: So I think that you know, this is a fine

1220
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:25,040
Speaker 1: time to bet Spurs man. I know that they've had

1221
00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:28,120
Speaker 1: a couple of wonky results in the past few weeks,

1222
00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:30,759
Speaker 1: but I like generally where they're going, the fact that

1223
00:56:30,800 --> 00:56:35,120
Speaker 1: they basically sat inside the top six seven and have

1224
00:56:35,440 --> 00:56:37,840
Speaker 1: a good chance at top four. Still, this is a

1225
00:56:37,880 --> 00:56:40,319
Speaker 1: really good team that deserves more credit than I think

1226
00:56:40,360 --> 00:56:44,640
Speaker 1: that they get because of their flaws defensively, so give

1227
00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:45,839
Speaker 1: me Spurs here plus one ten.

1228
00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:48,360
Speaker 3: Yeah. I like Chelsea team total over one and a

1229
00:56:48,400 --> 00:56:51,359
Speaker 3: half goals a minus one forty. Manchester United right now

1230
00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:55,400
Speaker 3: is a relegation style defense. With the way they're playing.

1231
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:58,040
Speaker 3: Eric ten Hogg is not going to change his philosophy

1232
00:56:58,040 --> 00:57:01,160
Speaker 3: because they keep getting results. You saw it against Brentford.

1233
00:57:01,320 --> 00:57:03,520
Speaker 3: When United decides to just press with all of their

1234
00:57:03,520 --> 00:57:05,799
Speaker 3: attackers and not have their fullbacks come up and aid

1235
00:57:05,840 --> 00:57:07,880
Speaker 3: in the press, there's always a free man and there

1236
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:11,200
Speaker 3: is always space out wide for the ball to go there,

1237
00:57:11,239 --> 00:57:13,320
Speaker 3: and then there's just eight years of space going forward

1238
00:57:13,560 --> 00:57:16,160
Speaker 3: for teams to create chances. Chelsea's a good build up team,

1239
00:57:16,200 --> 00:57:18,960
Speaker 3: like they can absolutely do that to United. United's coming

1240
00:57:19,000 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 3: off a game against Brentford where they allowed eighty five

1241
00:57:21,840 --> 00:57:24,000
Speaker 3: touches in their own penalty area. That's the most in

1242
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:27,040
Speaker 3: a Premier League match in the last five seasons. Chelsea's

1243
00:57:27,040 --> 00:57:28,800
Speaker 3: coming off a match they probably should have won against

1244
00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:31,880
Speaker 3: Burnley where they created north of three expected goals. So

1245
00:57:32,400 --> 00:57:34,840
Speaker 3: this is a really good spot for Chelsea's offense. Now,

1246
00:57:34,840 --> 00:57:36,880
Speaker 3: I don't really trust Chelsea's defense because they've had some

1247
00:57:36,880 --> 00:57:39,960
Speaker 3: transition defense issues. They've made a lot of mistakes, so

1248
00:57:40,480 --> 00:57:42,440
Speaker 3: and they can seal it over four expected goals against

1249
00:57:42,520 --> 00:57:44,880
Speaker 3: United in the previous meeting, so instead I'm just going

1250
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:47,200
Speaker 3: to target the Chelsea offense here projected them closer to

1251
00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:48,800
Speaker 3: two point two goals, so like over one and a

1252
00:57:48,840 --> 00:57:51,240
Speaker 3: half goals for the Blues and minus one.

1253
00:57:51,280 --> 00:57:54,480
Speaker 1: Forty lovely stuff. That does it for us for this

1254
00:57:54,680 --> 00:57:57,760
Speaker 1: midweek edition of Wonder Goal. We will be back with

1255
00:57:57,840 --> 00:58:02,440
Speaker 1: our normal Premier League and European preview for Thursday morning,

1256
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:03,959
Speaker 1: but until then, best of luck with all your bets.

1257
00:58:03,960 --> 00:58:06,720
Speaker 1: Hopefully we can put some more money in your pocket

1258
00:58:06,720 --> 00:58:09,040
Speaker 1: as we head down the stretch here. It's a good weekend,

1259
00:58:09,120 --> 00:58:12,000
Speaker 1: last weekend for us, so we'll hopefully continue the momentum

1260
00:58:12,600 --> 00:58:16,160
Speaker 1: the Premier League season reaches a climax and then it's

1261
00:58:16,160 --> 00:58:18,440
Speaker 1: the Euro so we're not going anywhere for Anthony for

1262
00:58:18,480 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 1: bj Michael, thank you to our producer No and thank

1263
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:22,080
Speaker 1: you to bet three sixty five.

1264
00:58:30,160 --> 00:58:34,680
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1265
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:37,480
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1266
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:40,640
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler