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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg instant reaction

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Speaker 2: and analysis from our three thousand journalists and analysts around

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Speaker 2: the world. And just moments ago, we got word from

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Speaker 2: a US appeals court.

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Speaker 3: This is breaking.

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Speaker 2: The court found the President's global tariffs were found to

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Speaker 2: be illegal. The court finding Trump ex seated his authority

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Speaker 2: in imposing the tariffs, upholding an earlier ruling by the

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Speaker 2: Court of International Trade that ruled Trump wrongfully invoked an

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Speaker 2: emergency law to issue the tariffs.

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Speaker 3: This is a major development.

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Speaker 2: At five point thirty pm Eastern time, whether US now

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Speaker 2: to discuss that and more? This evening's political panel Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Politics contributors Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital, are

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Speaker 2: Republican strategist alongside Democratic analyst Genie Shanzano, Democracy visiting fellow

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Speaker 2: at Harvard's Kennedy School's Ash Center. Rick Gie, he didn't

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Speaker 2: know he'd be talking about this, but that's the way

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Speaker 2: it goes around here. The tariffs are illegal. Does Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump care? I think Donald Trump will care. I mean,

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Speaker 2: he likes to wide by the court.

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Speaker 1: He likes to show force right and the emergency powers

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Speaker 1: gave him that, but he does have other mechanisms to

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Speaker 1: implement some portion of those tariffs. He might not be

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Speaker 1: able to do all of them with every country that

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Speaker 1: he had had under a tariff regime, yes, but programs

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Speaker 1: like you know, Section three oh one in others give

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Speaker 1: him the ability alone, you know, the power of the

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Speaker 1: executive branch to implement some of those tariffs. So they'll

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Speaker 1: probably be a you know, new regime put into place.

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Speaker 1: While they appealed this decision.

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Speaker 2: Fair enough, so over the weekend, Genie, these teriffs maybe lift,

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Speaker 2: but in the coming hours, the administration finds an alternative,

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Speaker 2: a different argument because it's the emergency that the court

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Speaker 2: is ruling.

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Speaker 4: On here, that's right, and that was always suspect, and

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Speaker 4: you know, reading the statue, it was very very hard

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Speaker 4: to imagine that the court would support a declaration of

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Speaker 4: an emergency. You know, he talked about an emergency for

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Speaker 4: things like the federal the trade deficit, for instance, but

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Speaker 4: yet that has been going on for decades and decades,

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Speaker 4: hardly constituting an emergency. So it was always an uphill

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Speaker 4: battle for the administration. They will certainly appeal, and of

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Speaker 4: course this is part of what the administration is going

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Speaker 4: to have to contend with and consumers and businesses around

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Speaker 4: the world, countries around the world. This uncertainty as it

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Speaker 4: pertains to tariffs. This is what the President took on

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Speaker 4: when he announced this regime. And we'll have to see

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Speaker 4: what the courts say as this moves forward.

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Speaker 2: So Genie points us back to uncertainty, and that's really

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Speaker 2: what this represents. Right, even if the President finds another

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Speaker 2: way to implement these very same levels of tariffs against countries,

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Speaker 2: we go into it a long weekend now with investors

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Speaker 2: wondering what the heck's going to happen next week.

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Speaker 1: Well, but that's what these tariffs have been like since

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Speaker 1: the day he started the Terifra game, right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: like nobody has really known how long these tariffs would last.

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Speaker 1: We've had delay after delay, We've had changes in tariff rates.

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Speaker 1: So this is just more the same, you know, with

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Speaker 1: this this tariff program. And really other than the period

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Speaker 1: of time when Donald Trump issued the reciprocal tariffs that

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Speaker 1: were really punitive and the market you know, sort of

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Speaker 1: showed him their displeasure. Yeah, you really haven't seen much

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Speaker 1: of a market reaction since then.

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Speaker 2: Well, this is true, Genie, I wonder what the reaction

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Speaker 2: is with our trading partners. Why would Cheson Ping cut

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Speaker 2: a deal with the United States if the court just

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Speaker 2: did his work for him.

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Speaker 3: That's absolutely right.

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Speaker 4: And you look at both our competitors like China, our allies,

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Speaker 4: all of whom have been impacted by this. There's very

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Speaker 4: little incentive now to strike a deal with the court decision.

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Speaker 4: And you know, my friend Rick Davis, he loves to

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Speaker 4: talk about the consumer consumer sentiment, and that came out,

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Speaker 4: and one thing we learned was that consumers are very,

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Speaker 4: very concerned about the impact of these tariffs, much more

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Speaker 4: so than you look at some of the other things

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Speaker 4: that Donald Trump has been doing in the last few

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Speaker 4: months or first eight months.

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Speaker 3: Of his administration.

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Speaker 4: These tariffs, they are deadly afraid that they're going to

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Speaker 4: impact inflation and that they're going to impact employment. So

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Speaker 4: these have had enormous repercussions around the world right here

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Speaker 4: at home, and nobody, to your point now, Jijinping in particular,

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Speaker 4: has a reason to deal until this is resolved.

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Speaker 2: Headline on consumer sentiment, and that, by the way, is

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Speaker 2: your preferred index, Rick Davis, your preferred political indexel ads

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Speaker 2: Liding in August as Americans express heightened concerns about high prices.

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Speaker 2: How long can this go on for before we actually

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Speaker 2: see it in the data.

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Speaker 1: Well, we're down below sixty on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment

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Speaker 1: Index and that's pretty low. And it doesn't surprise me

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Speaker 1: that you now see pulling data also showing that presidential

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Speaker 1: proof of ratings starting to dip. The Schumer sentiment index

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Speaker 1: is a precursor to political popularity, and I would say

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Speaker 1: this has got to be alarming to the White House

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Speaker 1: in advance of the midterm elections.

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Speaker 2: That's got to be true, Genie. You connect the dots

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Speaker 2: on this pretty easily here. And if the president's tariff

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Speaker 2: regime is overturned in court, if the tariffs go away,

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Speaker 2: to consumers respond in the other direction, because we've been

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Speaker 2: talking about fear and uncertainty all year, At what point

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Speaker 2: does this become definitive?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it depends on what the president does next.

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Speaker 4: Does he use some of those other options that Rick

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Speaker 4: was talking about to pursue the same tariff regime?

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Speaker 3: Does he pull back? Hard to believe he.

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Speaker 4: Does, because as we've talked about, he's been committed to

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Speaker 4: tariffs almost his entire adult and certainly political life. But

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Speaker 4: this is, overall, I believe, very good news because the

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Speaker 4: tariff regime was being put in place for reasons that

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Speaker 4: were never clarified by the White House, and they were

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Speaker 4: against not just our competitors but our allies, and the

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Speaker 4: impacts have been tremendous, not to mention the uncertainty. So

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Speaker 4: I think the courts are doing Donald Trump a favor.

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Speaker 4: I doubt the White House is going to see it

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Speaker 4: that way.

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Speaker 2: You've made that point before when the courts have challenged

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Speaker 2: him Genie and in this case again, this is an

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Speaker 2: appeals court upholding a ruling by the Court of International Trade.

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Speaker 2: Does this go to the Supreme Court like everything else?

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Speaker 1: So I don't think the President will even betterny to

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Speaker 1: elevate this to a Supreme court that has really handed

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Speaker 1: him success after success in appeals that he's made to

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Speaker 1: the High Court. So absolutely, I don't think they're going

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Speaker 1: to waste a minute to have the Department of Justice

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Speaker 1: appeal this to the highest court in the land.

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Speaker 2: Would Republicans maybe take this up to codify the president's

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Speaker 2: tariffs and legislation that would change the picture here too

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Speaker 2: when they come back.

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Speaker 1: Well, again, I mean, there already is a set of

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Speaker 1: rules in place in the executive branch that he has

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Speaker 1: options to be able to exert. Pretty much the basic

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Speaker 1: tariffs of fifteen percent across the board would be something

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Speaker 1: he could probably put in place alone. So whether or

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Speaker 1: not he needs additional support, I would say there are

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Speaker 1: a lot of Republicans who've been pretty grumpy about this

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Speaker 1: tariff regime. I mean, even though Genie points out accurately

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Speaker 1: that Donald Trump likes it, there are a lot of

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Speaker 1: Republicans who are not fans of the tariffs.

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Speaker 2: And maybe, like you say, Jeanie, the Court's done a

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Speaker 2: favor for him. But if Donald Trump brings this to

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Speaker 2: the Supreme Court, he could have a more favorable bench. Right,

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Speaker 2: how does this end?

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Speaker 4: He absolutely could, He certainly has the majority on the Court,

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Speaker 4: although I have very much difficulty understanding how they could

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Speaker 4: take what he has said is the emergency and say

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Speaker 4: that it is truly an emergency. A trade deficit going

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Speaker 4: on for fifty years is not an emergency. So you

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Speaker 4: look at all of his public statements once again, can

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Speaker 4: work against him. Had he had an emergency to point

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Speaker 4: to to justify this, it may be different. But I

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Speaker 4: think even a very conservative Supreme Court is going to

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Speaker 4: have trouble overturning these Appellate court.

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Speaker 3: This Appellate Court decision.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting this comes just hours after the deminimus exemption

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Speaker 2: ended here, so people are potentially going to be feeling

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Speaker 2: although even Jared Bernstein himself thought that that was a

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Speaker 2: loophole that should be closed here. I don't know that

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Speaker 2: people who are waiting for their packages from she and

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Speaker 2: are going to see it that way though, are they?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: No, I think they're going to be expecting the worst

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Speaker 1: and they've gotten it already. So I don't think there's

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Speaker 1: an appeal within the process that anybody is going to

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Speaker 1: think is going to matter to them. And so I

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Speaker 1: think certainly those people who have been under these regimes

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Speaker 1: are going to be feeling like, let's just wait see

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Speaker 1: what this comes out. I mean, Genie's right. I don't

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Speaker 1: think anybody's going to come to the table and say, hey,

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Speaker 1: let's renegotiate right now, sure, because they want to see

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Speaker 1: whether or not the president even has this authority going forward.

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Speaker 2: So Genie, trade talks are on ice then, right they are?

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Speaker 4: I mean, I mean, you can't imagine who would be

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Speaker 4: going to the table to talk until some of this

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Speaker 4: is resolved. And again, this is in our national interest

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Speaker 4: that this is on ice, and hopefully, in my view,

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Speaker 4: the Supreme Court keeps it that way if this case

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Speaker 4: does get there. Limited targeted tariffs make sense in certain situations.

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Speaker 4: Blanket tariffs against our allies when we are supposed to

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Speaker 4: be confronting and competing with China make very little sense.

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Speaker 4: And let's just look at what Jijinping is hosting with

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Speaker 4: North Korea, with Russia as we go into next week,

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Speaker 4: we have a competition on our hands.

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Speaker 3: This regime, as much as the.

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Speaker 4: President likes to talk about tariffs, doesn't benefit us when

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Speaker 4: it comes to our long term national security interests.

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Speaker 2: Well, we'll find out where we're going on this one,

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Speaker 2: and it might take some time. Here we've got another

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Speaker 2: potential Supreme Court case on our hands, but we'll go

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Speaker 2: through it with the help of Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzo.

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Speaker 2: Thank you both so much. The Court finding President Trump

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Speaker 2: exceeded his authority in imposing the tariffs, upholding an earlier

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Speaker 2: ruling by the Court of International Trade that said Trump

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Speaker 2: wrongfully invoked an emergency law to issue the tariffs. The

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Speaker 2: president's tariff regime to be clear, can continue as this

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Speaker 2: case proceeds. Mm hmm