WEBVTT - Biden's Polling Dilemma; The Powell Pivot

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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<v Speaker 2>stories we're following today.

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<v Speaker 3>We want to bring you fresh data now. In the

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<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty four presidential race, a new Bloomberg News Morning

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<v Speaker 3>Consul poll shows former President Donald Trump now ahead of

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<v Speaker 3>President Biden in all seven of the swing states that

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<v Speaker 3>are likely to decide next year's election. Trump leads forty

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<v Speaker 3>seven to forty two percent across those states. That is

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<v Speaker 3>outside this poll's margin of error of one percent. The

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<v Speaker 3>survey finds President Biden failing to gain traction among suburban

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<v Speaker 3>women in Michigan, young voters, and union households. He trails

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<v Speaker 3>Trump in Michigan forty six to forty two percent. As

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<v Speaker 3>concerns over inflation ride high. Council of Economic Advisor's chair

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<v Speaker 3>Jared Bernstein tells Bloomberg that sentiment should improve as we

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<v Speaker 3>get closer to election.

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<v Speaker 4>If we continue to maintain our progress lower prices, not

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<v Speaker 4>just in the things I mentioned where they're actually coming

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<v Speaker 4>down eggs, milk, toys, TVs, but also in areas of healthcare.

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<v Speaker 4>That's the path that we need to stay on. We're

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<v Speaker 4>not there yet, We're moving in the right direction. But

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<v Speaker 4>how do we know that. Well, one thing we really

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<v Speaker 4>need to see is for some of these sentiment indices

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<v Speaker 4>to reflect that.

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<v Speaker 3>Progress, and Jared Bernstein with the Council of Economic Advisors

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<v Speaker 3>admits those sentiment indices have not gotten better yet.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Nathan, another demographic that's expressing concern is Generation Z.

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<v Speaker 2>The Bloomberg Morning Console poll also finds many young voters

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<v Speaker 2>in swing states don't think Biden is doing enough on

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<v Speaker 2>student loan payments. However, Around University professor Wendy Schiller thinks

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<v Speaker 2>former President Trump's support could wane as he re enters

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<v Speaker 2>the spotlight.

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<v Speaker 5>As he comes back into the limelight and independence are

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<v Speaker 5>reminded of why they have not voted for Trump or

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<v Speaker 5>Trump's surrogates in the last three elections. That's where I

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<v Speaker 5>think the polling becomes more favorable, if you can put

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<v Speaker 5>it that way, for Biden, in the sense that he

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<v Speaker 5>is a chance to win those voters back into the

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<v Speaker 5>Democratic camp at least at the.

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<v Speaker 2>Present and Brown Universities. Wendy Schiller also says Democrats will

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<v Speaker 2>need to improve their messaging to get Biden re elected

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<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty four.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, another complication for the president, Karen the House has

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<v Speaker 3>voted along party lines to formally authorize the impeachment inquiry

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<v Speaker 3>into President Biden. This sets up a high profile clash

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<v Speaker 3>with the White House over the investigation that's focused on

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<v Speaker 3>Biden family finances and business dealings. House Oversight Chair James

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<v Speaker 3>Comer spoke after the vote.

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<v Speaker 2>We have a simple question that I think of no

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<v Speaker 2>blooming majority of Americans have. What did the Bidens do

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<v Speaker 2>to receive the tens of millions of dollars from our

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<v Speaker 2>enemies around the world.

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<v Speaker 3>Despite those accusations from Republican James Comer, Democrat Jamie Raskin says,

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<v Speaker 3>the attacks on the president are baseless.

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<v Speaker 1>They understand there's no real evidence to support any presidential

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<v Speaker 1>offense here.

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<v Speaker 6>They haven't even named what they think the crime is.

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<v Speaker 3>House Democrat Jamie Raskin says the impeachment inquiry is purely

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<v Speaker 3>about next year's election.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we turn to the markets now, Nathan and the

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<v Speaker 2>monetary pivot that traders have been waiting for. After keeping

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<v Speaker 2>interest on hold, the FED gave its clearest signal yet

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<v Speaker 2>that its historic policy tightening campaign is over, projecting rate

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<v Speaker 2>cuts in twenty twenty four, Fed heire J Powell's News

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<v Speaker 2>Conference United, one of the biggest post meeting rallies in

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<v Speaker 2>recent memory. The down closed at a record and the

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<v Speaker 2>S and P gained one point four percent, but Powell

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<v Speaker 2>did not entirely rule out tightening.

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<v Speaker 7>Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come

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<v Speaker 7>without a significant increase in unemployment. That's very good news,

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<v Speaker 7>but inflation is still too high ongoing progress and bringing

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<v Speaker 7>it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain.

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<v Speaker 2>Chairman Powell reiterated that the FED remains data dependent, but

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<v Speaker 2>former Atlanta FED President Ans Lockhart says the Fed's tentatively

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<v Speaker 2>DUBBSH stance, as he puts it, is appropriate at this time.

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<v Speaker 8>It's clear that they're going into twenty twenty four with

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<v Speaker 8>the idea that they will be cutting rate, and the

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<v Speaker 8>summary of economic projections showed to range among fifteen of

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<v Speaker 8>them from two cuts to four cuts, so it's not

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<v Speaker 8>a really tight census yet.

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<v Speaker 2>And former Atlanta FED President Dennis Lockhart says markets are

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<v Speaker 2>reacting positively to Powell's stands, and the FED gets more

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<v Speaker 2>data this morning with retail sales do at at eight

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<v Speaker 2>thirty am Wall Street Time.

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<v Speaker 3>Well Karen traders may be helping for smoother sailing on

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<v Speaker 3>the NASDAG today. A system error forced some stock orders

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<v Speaker 3>on the exchange to be canceled yesterday. Sources tell us

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<v Speaker 3>Nasdaq's investigating an order entry issue that caused inaccuracies and delays.

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<v Speaker 3>Although it did not resolve the issue before the end

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<v Speaker 3>of trading yesterday, the Nasdaq says it will be ready today.

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<v Speaker 2>Nathan, overseas, we get two major rate decisions from the

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<v Speaker 2>Bank of England and European Central Bank. Bloomberg's Ewan Pots

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<v Speaker 2>joins us from London with a preview. Good morning, Ewan, Good.

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<v Speaker 9>Morning Karen, Nathan. They're calling it super Thursday with rate

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<v Speaker 9>decisions from key central banks right across Europe. We've already

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<v Speaker 9>had a surprise rate hike from Norway. Up next announcements

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<v Speaker 9>from the ECB and the BOE. The risk of recession

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<v Speaker 9>in the euro Area will be front of mind for

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<v Speaker 9>Presidents Christine Legarde. We're here from the ECB at eight

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<v Speaker 9>fifteen am Eastern time. But first up the Bank of England.

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<v Speaker 9>Way's sticky inflation with a very sluggish economy. That UK

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<v Speaker 9>right decision comes in two hours time in London. I'm

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<v Speaker 9>Une Pots, Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 3>Radio okay you and thank you. Elsewhere in Europe, UBS

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<v Speaker 3>is stepping up efforts to recoup hundreds of millions in

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<v Speaker 3>cash bonuses that Credit Sweeze paid to retain deal makers

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<v Speaker 3>before it's collapse. Sources say UBS has contacted hundreds of

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<v Speaker 3>bankers and offered some multi year payment plans as it

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<v Speaker 3>tries to claw back a chunk of the one point

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<v Speaker 3>two billion Swiss francs and restricted cash bonuses. One source

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<v Speaker 3>says UBS is seeking to recover less than six hundred

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<v Speaker 3>and fifty one million Swiss francs.

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<v Speaker 2>Meanwhile, in Russia, Nathan President Vladimir Putin is speaking at

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<v Speaker 2>his annual end of year news conference. He says inflation

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<v Speaker 2>in Russia's running between seven and a half to eight

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<v Speaker 2>percent and that Russian companies are paying back their foreign loans.

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<v Speaker 2>Putin added his war aims in Ukraine remained the same

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<v Speaker 2>and he does not expect to mobilize a second wave

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<v Speaker 2>of troops right now. And it is time now for

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<v Speaker 2>a look at some of the other stories making news

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<v Speaker 2>around the world, and for that we're joined by Bloomberg,

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<v Speaker 2>John Tunker, johncinb Morning.

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<v Speaker 10>Good Morning. Care in the House and Senate have agreed

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<v Speaker 10>to a massive defense bill. The story in this report

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<v Speaker 10>from Washington and Bloomberg's Amy Morris.

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<v Speaker 11>The House passed an eight hundred and eighty six billion

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<v Speaker 11>dollar defense bill after bipartisan negotiations between the House and Senate.

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<v Speaker 11>Hard right Republicans had tried to attach restrictions on abortions,

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<v Speaker 11>transgender care, and diversity initiatives, but those didn't make it

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<v Speaker 11>into the final bill. Republicans did score some victories, like

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<v Speaker 11>requiring all promotions to be merit and performance based, outlawing

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<v Speaker 11>the flying of the LGBTQ flag on military basis, and

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<v Speaker 11>the teaching of critical race theory and drag show performances

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<v Speaker 11>will also be banned on bass. Military personnel will also

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<v Speaker 11>get a five point two percent pay increase in.

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<v Speaker 6>The new bill.

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<v Speaker 11>Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 10>Negotiators continue to make progress on a border deal. The

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<v Speaker 10>key negotiators have been meeting with the Department of Homeland

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<v Speaker 10>Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorcis. Senator Chris Murphy if Connecticut been

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<v Speaker 10>leading negotiations for the Democrats.

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<v Speaker 3>As a real complicated set of law, but there's still

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<v Speaker 3>no reason that we can't finish this by the time

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<v Speaker 3>we wrap up.

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<v Speaker 6>For the year.

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<v Speaker 10>Lawmakers are scheduled a head out of town as soon

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<v Speaker 10>as tomorrow. The US working with allies to create a

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<v Speaker 10>multinational effort to protect ships passing through the Red Sea.

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<v Speaker 10>It's an effort to stem a surgeon attacks by hootie

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<v Speaker 10>fighters that has provoked unease about commercial trade passing through

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<v Speaker 10>one of the world's most vital waterways. A federal judge

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<v Speaker 10>granted Donald Trump's request to pause the twenty twenty election

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<v Speaker 10>obstruction case scheduled for trial at March well he presses

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<v Speaker 10>a claim for sweeping immunity against criminal charges. US District

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<v Speaker 10>Judge Tanya Chunkin at Washington pause the hearings and upcoming

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<v Speaker 10>deadlines in the case while Trump appeals her earlier ruling

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<v Speaker 10>denying him immunately from prosecution over events that took place

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<v Speaker 10>while he was president. Industry regulators say California's risk of

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<v Speaker 10>power shortfalls and blackouts has fallen as more renewable energy

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<v Speaker 10>and batteries are added to its electric grid, but at

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<v Speaker 10>the same time, they and such threats in New York

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<v Speaker 10>have risen thanks to higher electricity demand and new restrictions

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<v Speaker 10>on gas fire power plants. Global News twenty four hours

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<v Speaker 10>a day and whenever you want it With Bloomberg News Now,

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<v Speaker 10>I'm John Tucker and this is Bloomberg Karen.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, John, thanks what we do bring you news

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<v Speaker 2>throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio. Just as John said,

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<v Speaker 2>but now you can get the latest news on demand,

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<v Speaker 2>and that means you can get it whenever you want it.

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<v Speaker 2>Just subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest

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<v Speaker 2>Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com plus Apples, Spotify,

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<v Speaker 2>and anywhere else you get your podcasts. It is time

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<v Speaker 2>now for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John stash Hour, John.

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<v Speaker 12>Karen and Milwaukee on a night for the buckstar Jannis

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<v Speaker 12>onto the Compo. He poured in sixty four points. That's

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<v Speaker 12>as previous career high of fifty five. It's a Bucks

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<v Speaker 12>team rerecord. They beat Indiana one forty to one twenty six.

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<v Speaker 12>Jana's twenty of twenty eight from the field and twenty

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<v Speaker 12>four of thirty two from the free throw line. He's

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<v Speaker 12>the first player in NBA history to have twenty or

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<v Speaker 12>more from both and shoot seventy percent or better in both.

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<v Speaker 12>There was an incident after the game. Giannis went into

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<v Speaker 12>the Pacers locker room to try to get the game ball,

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<v Speaker 12>and there was apparently some kind of a melee that

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<v Speaker 12>broke out. Wizards lost at home by twenty New Orleans one,

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<v Speaker 12>with Brandon Ingram scoring forty, and the Wizards are now

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<v Speaker 12>three and twenty. Lakers won only by three in San Antonio,

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<v Speaker 12>when the Spurs have now lost eighteen games in a row.

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<v Speaker 12>The NBA has suspended Raymond Green indefinitely, citing his repeated

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<v Speaker 12>history of incident. Ruins lost in overtime at New Jersey

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<v Speaker 12>two to one. It's the Chargers and Raiders tonight, kicking

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<v Speaker 12>off Week fifteen, both teams with only five wins on

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<v Speaker 12>the season a lot of injuries. Chargers without their quarterback

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<v Speaker 12>Justin Herbert for the rest of the season in their

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<v Speaker 12>top whiteout, Keenan Allen won't play tonight due to a

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<v Speaker 12>foot injury. The Raiders have decided to stick with rookie

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<v Speaker 12>quarterback Aidan O'Connell.

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<v Speaker 6>Whiteout.

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<v Speaker 12>Devonte Adams was questionable with an illness. The NFL has

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<v Speaker 12>gave me Super Bowl sixty to Los Angeles. That's where

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<v Speaker 12>the first Super Bowl was played, and the NFL says

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<v Speaker 12>there'll be a regular season game played next year in

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<v Speaker 12>South Paolo Brazil. John Stashewer Bloomberg Sports.

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<v Speaker 13>From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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<v Speaker 13>Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Sirius Exam, the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 13>Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 13>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. As we head into a

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<v Speaker 13>twenty twenty four re election campaign for President Biden, he

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<v Speaker 13>has been struggling to show voters that the policies that

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<v Speaker 13>he's put forward, whether it's by partisan infrastructure, it's the

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<v Speaker 13>Inflation Reduction Act and student debt relief, are working for

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<v Speaker 13>the voters that he needs to win reelection. Those struggles

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<v Speaker 13>are reflected in the latest Bloomberg News Morning Consult poll

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<v Speaker 13>of swing states, just out this morning, and here with

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<v Speaker 13>us to discuss it as Bloomberg News Politics reporter Gregory Cordy. Gregory,

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<v Speaker 13>it's great to have you with us this morning. We

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<v Speaker 13>just saw these numbers cross the Bloomberg terminal moments ago.

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<v Speaker 13>I know this is an update right of the swing

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<v Speaker 13>state pole that we conducted just a couple months ago.

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<v Speaker 6>So what did we find. Yeah, actually, this is the

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<v Speaker 6>third iteration of this pole. We've been doing it monthly

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<v Speaker 6>and we're going to continue to do it monthly through

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<v Speaker 6>the election next November. And what we're seeing is a

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<v Speaker 6>slow but unmistakable movement in former President Donald Trump's direction

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<v Speaker 6>in each of these seven swing states, or I should

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<v Speaker 6>say these swing states collectively. But now for the first

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<v Speaker 6>time in this poll every one of these seven swing states,

0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:53.359
<v Speaker 6>Trump is now leading in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:56.560
<v Speaker 6>Michigan was the one that was tied the first two

0:11:56.559 --> 0:11:59.400
<v Speaker 6>times we did this poll. Now President Trump is leading

0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:02.760
<v Speaker 6>by four and so this is a pretty good poll

0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:05.920
<v Speaker 6>for him, and it shows how President Biden continues to struggle,

0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:09.959
<v Speaker 6>as you said, to convince voters that his economic policies

0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:10.880
<v Speaker 6>are working. Yeah.

0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:16.319
<v Speaker 3>To see the turnaround in President Biden's disfavor in Michigan

0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:20.319
<v Speaker 3>is particularly notable when you think about how he's put

0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:23.560
<v Speaker 3>himself out there as the most pro union president ever.

0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:26.400
<v Speaker 3>He was the first president to walk a picket line

0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:29.480
<v Speaker 3>in Michigan, and it doesn't seem at least from this

0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:31.800
<v Speaker 3>polling that that's worked out for him thus far.

0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:36.400
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, we took a particular interest in Michigan this month

0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:40.960
<v Speaker 6>in part because it had been so close and now

0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:44.600
<v Speaker 6>it seems to be leaning Trump. And you're absolutely right.

0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:48.120
<v Speaker 6>It's a state that Biden absolutely needs to win. It's

0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:50.679
<v Speaker 6>one of those blue wall industrial states that we talk

0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:54.880
<v Speaker 6>about that are so important for Democrats, and it shows

0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:59.960
<v Speaker 6>that Biden's really not improving among those union voters. Now.

0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:04.160
<v Speaker 6>The unions themselves are pretty happy with Biden. Biden claims

0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:06.520
<v Speaker 6>to mean it's pro union president in history. He walked

0:13:06.559 --> 0:13:09.679
<v Speaker 6>the picket line with workers back when the United Auto

0:13:09.679 --> 0:13:15.040
<v Speaker 6>Workers were on strike earlier this year, and that political

0:13:15.080 --> 0:13:17.920
<v Speaker 6>support from the White House helped the UAW get a

0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:22.800
<v Speaker 6>pretty good contract. But rank and file auto workers aren't

0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:26.160
<v Speaker 6>necessarily listening to their union leadership on this, and we've

0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:29.960
<v Speaker 6>seen union workers more willing to vote for Donald Trump,

0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:33.840
<v Speaker 6>especially on these issues of trade and competition with China

0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:38.520
<v Speaker 6>and immigration and other issues other than collective bargaining. President

0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:39.679
<v Speaker 6>Trump has made inroads on.

0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:44.400
<v Speaker 3>It is fascinating to see how the former president continues

0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:48.240
<v Speaker 3>to make inroads on these economic issues when we go

0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:51.400
<v Speaker 3>by the data every day here on Bloomberg, and we're

0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:56.800
<v Speaker 3>seeing the signs of improvement in the US economy pretty steadily.

0:13:57.640 --> 0:13:58.920
<v Speaker 6>What does that say.

0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:02.320
<v Speaker 3>About this disconnect that we're seeing between the way the

0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:06.400
<v Speaker 3>economy is going and how it's working out for this

0:14:06.559 --> 0:14:09.359
<v Speaker 3>current president in his polling numbers.

0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:12.760
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, you've absolutely put your finger on one of the

0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:16.800
<v Speaker 6>central questions and frankly, one of the big riddles of

0:14:16.840 --> 0:14:19.520
<v Speaker 6>this election year, as you say, the economic indicators are

0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:23.400
<v Speaker 6>doing well, and yet Biden isn't getting credit for that.

0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:26.320
<v Speaker 6>We see when we ask people how is the national

0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:31.000
<v Speaker 6>economy doing, overwhelming numbers say that it's doing poorly in

0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:34.840
<v Speaker 6>the seventy percents. But then when we ask people how

0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:37.680
<v Speaker 6>their local economy is doing, how their state economy is doing,

0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.400
<v Speaker 6>people are saying it's doing much better. And we're really

0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:44.560
<v Speaker 6>trying to understand that disconnect between vote voter perceptions because

0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:49.480
<v Speaker 6>the real that local economy is what people more often experience,

0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:52.720
<v Speaker 6>and what they're saying is, yeah, I've got a job

0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:56.240
<v Speaker 6>unemployment as low prices are coming down, wages are going up,

0:14:56.680 --> 0:14:59.080
<v Speaker 6>and yet they look at the national economy and they

0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:02.440
<v Speaker 6>still think that it's heading in the wrong direction. What

0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:08.280
<v Speaker 6>that reflects is that they are continuing to associate present

0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:11.920
<v Speaker 6>Biden with inflation being still too high compared to where

0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:15.440
<v Speaker 6>we were before the pandemic, and people not exactly happy

0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:17.920
<v Speaker 6>with where we are and continuing to be a little

0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:19.920
<v Speaker 6>uncertain about which direction we're heading.

0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:22.200
<v Speaker 3>I think about thirty seconds left here, Greg gree But

0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:24.840
<v Speaker 3>are there any positive signs for President Biden in this polling?

0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:28.720
<v Speaker 6>Well, inflation expectations continue to come down. We see that

0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:30.080
<v Speaker 6>in a number of different poles, and we see it

0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:34.920
<v Speaker 6>in this poll. We see people saying that the concerns

0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:36.960
<v Speaker 6>about inflation are ebbing a little bit. And then we

0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:39.160
<v Speaker 6>ask people, would you say that the prices that you

0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:43.200
<v Speaker 6>paid for everyday goods like groceries and gas and so forth,

0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:45.960
<v Speaker 6>are they going up or they going down? And fewer

0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:48.720
<v Speaker 6>people say that they're going up. The people are seeing

0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:51.280
<v Speaker 6>them starting to come down. It's probably not as much

0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:54.360
<v Speaker 6>as the president would like to see, but some of

0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:57.080
<v Speaker 6>these indicators are slowly heading in the right direction.

0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:03.200
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