Speaker 1: Michigan is a key swing state for next year's presidential election,
Speaker 1: and despite Democrats controlling the state's legislature and holding the
Speaker 1: governor seat, Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Joe Biden
Speaker 1: in the latest Bloomberg News Morning Consult poll. Michigan is
Speaker 1: a competitive state. It might help decide who wins in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, and while the presidential election is still
Speaker 1: a year away, what voters there have to say right
Speaker 1: now counts.
Speaker 2: Today.
Speaker 1: On the show, we'll dive deep into fresh polling data
Speaker 1: from Michigan to see whether it's the economy, the auto
Speaker 1: workers strike, or foreign policy that has soured voters on
Speaker 1: the Biden administration. This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Seleiah Moson with a special report from Washington,
Speaker 1: d C. You can find our full polling coverage on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com. But right now I have two colleagues
Speaker 1: with me to talk about mission. Wendy Benjaminson is senior
Speaker 1: editor in DC overseeing our polling coverage, and Jeff Green
Speaker 1: is a reporter based in Michigan. Thank you both for joining.
Speaker 2: Me, Thanks for having us.
Speaker 1: Good to be here, Wendy, I want to come to
Speaker 1: you first. Donald Trump is pulling ahead of Joe Biden
Speaker 1: in Michigan. How big of a lead does he have.
Speaker 2: Well, it's a tiny lead right now. It's barely outside
Speaker 2: the margin of error of our poll in Michigan. However,
Speaker 2: it's the biggest news in our polling this month because
Speaker 2: for the very first time, Trump has moved ahead of
Speaker 2: Joe Biden in all seven of the swing states we
Speaker 2: are polling now in December, after Joe Biden went to
Speaker 2: the picket lines for the UAW striking workers, after he's
Speaker 2: made this big pitch on Biden nomics, Trump pulls ahead
Speaker 2: and that struck us as real news in this poll.
Speaker 1: Okay, so forty six percent of Michigan voters said they
Speaker 1: would vote for Trump and two percent said they would
Speaker 1: vote for Biden. We have a really tight race.
Speaker 2: It's an incredibly tight race. But remember that in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty Biden won Michigan with fifty point six percent of
Speaker 2: the vote. Trump won with forty seven point eight So
Speaker 2: Michigan is always tight. And right now, with eleven months ago,
Speaker 2: Trump is ahead in Michigan.
Speaker 1: So given all of that, I want to give one
Speaker 1: more qualifier to this poll. One that should come with
Speaker 1: every pole. This data simply tells us what people are
Speaker 1: feeling right now, not necessarily how they're going to vote
Speaker 1: on election day.
Speaker 2: That is absolutely right, Wendy.
Speaker 1: As you sifted through the data that you got, what
Speaker 1: did you learn about the mood among voters.
Speaker 2: The mood among voters, in one word, is sour. They
Speaker 2: are not happy with the current administration's foreign policy, They
Speaker 2: are not happy with domestic policy. They are not yet
Speaker 2: feeling the effects of the accomplishments of the Biden administration
Speaker 2: in terms of slowing inflation, in terms of keeping US
Speaker 2: out of a deep recession, the US out of a
Speaker 2: deep recession, and they are looking once again to Donald
Speaker 2: Trump to try to fix things.
Speaker 1: Jeff, I want to turn to you. One place where
Speaker 1: we recently saw Trump and Biden trying to woo Michigan
Speaker 1: voters was when the auto workers went on strike. The
Speaker 1: President joined them on the picket line, and Trump visited
Speaker 1: some non union shops. You live and work in Michigan, Jeff,
Speaker 1: tell me, how is that key demographic showing up in
Speaker 1: our polling data.
Speaker 3: Well, that's kind of one of the surprises, and I
Speaker 3: mean it's hard to know for sure, but directionally. It
Speaker 3: does look like Trump is starting to get more sort
Speaker 3: of ooped with the autoworkers. And you know, a lot
Speaker 3: of it's, like Wendy said, dependent on the economy. I
Speaker 3: talked to Brian Pennevicker, who is part of the group
Speaker 3: Auto Workers for Trump, and he kind of sums up.
Speaker 3: He thinks Biden is starting to lose some ground with
Speaker 3: the autoworkers.
Speaker 4: Auto workers are more in tune with Donald Trump's policies
Speaker 4: in terms of energy and the economy, and that's what
Speaker 4: they're going to vote on Donald Trump's policies. And they've
Speaker 4: had a chance now to see Joe Biden in action,
Speaker 4: and I don't think they like what they see.
Speaker 3: And one of the things to keep in mind mentioning
Speaker 3: energy is ev Electric vehicles is a big, big transition
Speaker 3: happening in the state. There's a lot of people concerned
Speaker 3: we're rushing it. Maybe we're going to weaken the auto companies.
Speaker 3: It's a mandate and not necessarily popular with all the
Speaker 3: rank and file. However, it does seem like the kind
Speaker 3: of thing that will work itself out eventually when the
Speaker 3: union gets more engaged.
Speaker 1: That's interesting to me. After all, we have a president
Speaker 1: right now, who's often referred to as union Joe. He's
Speaker 1: been a big backer of labor. In September, he became
Speaker 1: the first US president to ever join the picket line.
Speaker 1: Here's what he had to say when he was there.
Speaker 5: Talking about her, is that you guys, uaw, you've saved
Speaker 5: the autobile industry. Back at two of how they and
Speaker 5: the floors made a lot of sacrifices, gave up a lot,
Speaker 5: and the companies were in trouble. But now they're doing
Speaker 5: incredibly well. And guess what you should be doing incredibly
Speaker 5: well too, say.
Speaker 1: Biden has his reputation of being the average Joe, the
Speaker 1: guy who takes trains and supports union workers. But looking
Speaker 1: at the polling numbers that we've just gotten, that doesn't
Speaker 1: seem to resonate in Michigan with these auto workers. Jeff,
Speaker 1: I'm curious, why do you think that is?
Speaker 3: Well, I think it comes down to a lot of things.
Speaker 3: We're looking at inflation. It doesn't matter that inflation is
Speaker 3: moderating because it doesn't mean prices are going down. Autoworkers
Speaker 3: are just like everyone else at Michigan. What they want
Speaker 3: is a better economy with lower prices and they're concerned
Speaker 3: that maybe Biden isn't bringing them that, and Trump does
Speaker 3: really well with sort of his populous message, you know,
Speaker 3: make it in America. A lot of the things he said,
Speaker 3: he took away some of the thunder from Joe Biden
Speaker 3: when he said a lot of the same things. He
Speaker 3: went after NAFTA, which is the North American Free Trade Agreement,
Speaker 3: things that the autoworkers didn't like. They are kind of
Speaker 3: a fickle bunch. I mean, they tend to as an
Speaker 3: organization at the top go for a Democrat, but the
Speaker 3: members can go either way. We talked to the Michigan
Speaker 3: Democratic Chair, Levora Barnes, and she kind of summed up
Speaker 3: what she thinks will ultimately happen as this develops.
Speaker 6: When the UAW turt that focused, when labor unions all
Speaker 6: turn their focus on this election, they'll remember that this
Speaker 6: is the president who has stood with them and stood
Speaker 6: by them year after year and will continue to and
Speaker 6: they will come to Democrats.
Speaker 2: I'm sure of that, Wendy.
Speaker 1: I'm curious about your reaction to that.
Speaker 2: Oh, you saw me shaking my head. The trouble is
Speaker 2: that that has been the message for Democrats all along,
Speaker 2: that at some point everyone will suddenly realize all the
Speaker 2: great things Biden did for them and they will vote
Speaker 2: for him. The trouble is, biden messaging is landing flat.
Speaker 2: He's been to Michigan, he has talked about biden nomics,
Speaker 2: which actually started off as an insult by Republicans, and
Speaker 2: now he has adopted it much the way Obama did
Speaker 2: with Obamacare. But it is not working as well as
Speaker 2: it did for Obama. But every time he tries to
Speaker 2: sell his accomplishments to people, they just don't seem to
Speaker 2: give him credit for it. He's not getting credit for
Speaker 2: the student loan cancelation of one hundred and twenty seven
Speaker 2: billion dollars. He's not getting credit for the Inflation Reduction Act,
Speaker 2: or for the economy that is getting better. And if
Speaker 2: Democrats want to win, I think they will have to
Speaker 2: try a new message because so far, with plenty of
Speaker 2: time to rebuild that message, this message isn't working well.
Speaker 1: On that note, we're going to take a quick break.
Speaker 1: Then we'll hear more about what's on the mine of
Speaker 1: Michigan voters and what this swing state can tell us
Speaker 1: about how the rest of the country might vote. We're
Speaker 1: back with my Bloomberg colleagues Wendy Benjaminson in Washington and
Speaker 1: Jeff Green in Michigan, and we're talking about the latest
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Morning consult poll. It showed that Trump has pulled
Speaker 1: ahead of Biden among prospective voters in the state. Wendy Jeff,
Speaker 1: you both mentioned how important the economy is in Michigan.
Speaker 2: Our poll shows that.
Speaker 1: It's the top issue for voters. It also finds that
Speaker 1: voters trust Trump more than Biden when it comes to
Speaker 1: the economy, by a fourteen point margin, even as inflation
Speaker 1: continues to slow and the US keeps adding jobs. What
Speaker 1: do you think is behind that, Well.
Speaker 3: It's maybe nostalgia. There was a couple references to looking
Speaker 3: at where things were prior to twenty nineteen, prior to COVID,
Speaker 3: and that's when Trump was president.
Speaker 2: And they are thinking about a pre COVID world when
Speaker 2: Donald Trump was running the country, and that was a
Speaker 2: time when inflation was low and the economy was humming along. Yes,
Speaker 2: but Biden was taking the country out of the COVID economy.
Speaker 2: And even though that is doing well by all the
Speaker 2: statistics that we hear at Bloomberg follow very closely, voters
Speaker 2: are not feeling it yet, and that is what is
Speaker 2: going to affect people when they get to the voting both.
Speaker 3: Also, Michigan's inflation rate is a bit above the country
Speaker 3: and a bit above the Midwest, so I think people
Speaker 3: are feeling it a little bit more here.
Speaker 1: But when it comes to the economy and gender, our
Speaker 1: poll found that eight out of ten women in Michigan
Speaker 1: think the economy is on the wrong track.
Speaker 3: I did talk to an economist at the University of Michigan,
Speaker 3: Sarah Miller, and she had some thoughts on why women
Speaker 3: who are supporting Trump in rural and suburban areas more
Speaker 3: so than Biden, might be seeing this as a more
Speaker 3: important issue than in other parts of the country.
Speaker 7: Women in particular are saying they're more concerned about prices
Speaker 7: and inflation prices rising, and in particular, they're more likely
Speaker 7: than men to say they're concerned about food prices, household
Speaker 7: supply prices, utility prices, whereas men tend to say they're
Speaker 7: more worried than women when it comes to gas prices,
Speaker 7: the prices of restaurants, parsus of entertainment, and so I
Speaker 7: I think some of this can reflect just a different
Speaker 7: division of labor in the household. And just to be clear,
Speaker 7: you know, it's not that men weren't concerned about food,
Speaker 7: it was just that women were even more concerned than men.
Speaker 7: Both groups are very concerned, but it was a bit
Speaker 7: higher on the women's side.
Speaker 1: So it seems like Biden might have lost women in Michigan.
Speaker 1: But I was at a party last week in Washington
Speaker 1: and there were a lot of ex Trump officials there.
Speaker 1: They were giving me a sense that there was the
Speaker 1: same concern for Trump that he also has not won women,
Speaker 1: particularly suburban women. Wendy, what do you think about that?
Speaker 2: I think Trump has always had trouble gaining the support
Speaker 2: of suburban women, but this time he has taken what
Speaker 2: seems to be a very smart self marketing strategy in
Speaker 2: hitting on one issue that suburban women see as important
Speaker 2: besides the economy, and that is the importance of abortion.
Speaker 2: We've seen in one Republican state after another, even Republican
Speaker 2: voters voting in favor of referenda that allow abortion access
Speaker 2: in their state. And so Trump, who has always campaigned
Speaker 2: as a devotee of the evangelical Christian right, has taken
Speaker 2: a very moderate or more to the point vague stance
Speaker 2: on where he stands on abortion rights, and I believe
Speaker 2: that is a strategy to capture suburban women.
Speaker 1: I'm going to dig into the broader picture with you, Wendy.
Speaker 1: You've covered eight elections. What does Michigan tell us about
Speaker 1: what's happening in the rest of the country.
Speaker 2: Michigan is a good lab for what's happening in the
Speaker 2: rest of the country because it has such a mix
Speaker 2: of people. You have, you know, the big city of Detroit,
Speaker 2: which is a majority minority city in the sense that
Speaker 2: most people who live there are not white. Then you
Speaker 2: have the rural areas where Trump has a tremendous amount
Speaker 2: of support, and you have a sort of solid Midwestern attitude.
Speaker 2: Michigan is a blue state now, but it swings back
Speaker 2: and forth and is a must win, as you might call.
Speaker 2: In twenty sixteen, Hillary Clinton did not win Michigan, and
Speaker 2: we see what happened. Trump won the election. In twenty twenty,
Speaker 2: Biden did win Michigan, and now he's president. Whoever wins
Speaker 2: Michigan wins the presidency.
Speaker 1: Okay, Jeff, the final word goes to you, why do
Speaker 1: you think that your state, the state of Michigan is
Speaker 1: so important to our national elections.
Speaker 3: I think a lot of people remember we're the home
Speaker 3: of the Reagan Democrats. I mean, we are the state
Speaker 3: that swings. We swing, and we tend to have it.
Speaker 3: Like Wendy said, we tend to have an influence on
Speaker 3: who wins. And there's also some other unique aspects we
Speaker 3: talked about. The United Auto Workers labor is a big
Speaker 3: part of the state and if Biden loses ground there
Speaker 3: that doesn't bode well. We do have a significant ari
Speaker 3: ofb American population here in the war between Israel and
Speaker 3: Hamas is playing poorly for Biden here among Palestinians. So
Speaker 3: all those things are factors that could show up in
Speaker 3: the general election that we have to think about. But
Speaker 3: I think at the end of the day, Michigan tends
Speaker 3: to have a big say and who becomes president.
Speaker 1: Thank you both so much, Thanks for having us, Thanks
Speaker 1: for having us, Thanks for listening to the Big Take
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg News. I'm Seleiah Mosen. This episode was produced
Speaker 1: by Anamazarakis and Naomi Shaven. It was fact checked by
Speaker 1: Julia Press. It's part of a special series from our
Speaker 1: DC newsroom. Blake Maples is our mix engineer. Our story
Speaker 1: editors are Caitlin Kenney and Mike Shephard. Sage Bauman is
Speaker 1: our executive producer and head of Podcasts. Thanks for tuning in.