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Speaker 1: Michigan is a key swing state for next year's presidential election,

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Speaker 1: and despite Democrats controlling the state's legislature and holding the

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Speaker 1: governor seat, Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: in the latest Bloomberg News Morning Consult poll. Michigan is

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Speaker 1: a competitive state. It might help decide who wins in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, and while the presidential election is still

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Speaker 1: a year away, what voters there have to say right

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Speaker 1: now counts.

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Speaker 2: Today.

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Speaker 1: On the show, we'll dive deep into fresh polling data

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Speaker 1: from Michigan to see whether it's the economy, the auto

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Speaker 1: workers strike, or foreign policy that has soured voters on

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Speaker 1: the Biden administration. This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Seleiah Moson with a special report from Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C. You can find our full polling coverage on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com. But right now I have two colleagues

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Speaker 1: with me to talk about mission. Wendy Benjaminson is senior

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Speaker 1: editor in DC overseeing our polling coverage, and Jeff Green

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Speaker 1: is a reporter based in Michigan. Thank you both for joining.

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Speaker 2: Me, Thanks for having us.

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Speaker 1: Good to be here, Wendy, I want to come to

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Speaker 1: you first. Donald Trump is pulling ahead of Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: in Michigan. How big of a lead does he have.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's a tiny lead right now. It's barely outside

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Speaker 2: the margin of error of our poll in Michigan. However,

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Speaker 2: it's the biggest news in our polling this month because

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Speaker 2: for the very first time, Trump has moved ahead of

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden in all seven of the swing states we

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Speaker 2: are polling now in December, after Joe Biden went to

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Speaker 2: the picket lines for the UAW striking workers, after he's

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Speaker 2: made this big pitch on Biden nomics, Trump pulls ahead

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Speaker 2: and that struck us as real news in this poll.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so forty six percent of Michigan voters said they

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Speaker 1: would vote for Trump and two percent said they would

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Speaker 1: vote for Biden. We have a really tight race.

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Speaker 2: It's an incredibly tight race. But remember that in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty Biden won Michigan with fifty point six percent of

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Speaker 2: the vote. Trump won with forty seven point eight So

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Speaker 2: Michigan is always tight. And right now, with eleven months ago,

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Speaker 2: Trump is ahead in Michigan.

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Speaker 1: So given all of that, I want to give one

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Speaker 1: more qualifier to this poll. One that should come with

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Speaker 1: every pole. This data simply tells us what people are

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Speaker 1: feeling right now, not necessarily how they're going to vote

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Speaker 1: on election day.

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Speaker 2: That is absolutely right, Wendy.

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Speaker 1: As you sifted through the data that you got, what

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Speaker 1: did you learn about the mood among voters.

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Speaker 2: The mood among voters, in one word, is sour. They

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Speaker 2: are not happy with the current administration's foreign policy, They

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Speaker 2: are not happy with domestic policy. They are not yet

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Speaker 2: feeling the effects of the accomplishments of the Biden administration

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Speaker 2: in terms of slowing inflation, in terms of keeping US

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Speaker 2: out of a deep recession, the US out of a

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Speaker 2: deep recession, and they are looking once again to Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump to try to fix things.

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Speaker 1: Jeff, I want to turn to you. One place where

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Speaker 1: we recently saw Trump and Biden trying to woo Michigan

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Speaker 1: voters was when the auto workers went on strike. The

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Speaker 1: President joined them on the picket line, and Trump visited

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Speaker 1: some non union shops. You live and work in Michigan, Jeff,

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Speaker 1: tell me, how is that key demographic showing up in

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Speaker 1: our polling data.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's kind of one of the surprises, and I

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Speaker 3: mean it's hard to know for sure, but directionally. It

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Speaker 3: does look like Trump is starting to get more sort

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Speaker 3: of ooped with the autoworkers. And you know, a lot

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Speaker 3: of it's, like Wendy said, dependent on the economy. I

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Speaker 3: talked to Brian Pennevicker, who is part of the group

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Speaker 3: Auto Workers for Trump, and he kind of sums up.

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Speaker 3: He thinks Biden is starting to lose some ground with

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Speaker 3: the autoworkers.

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Speaker 4: Auto workers are more in tune with Donald Trump's policies

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Speaker 4: in terms of energy and the economy, and that's what

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Speaker 4: they're going to vote on Donald Trump's policies. And they've

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Speaker 4: had a chance now to see Joe Biden in action,

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Speaker 4: and I don't think they like what they see.

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Speaker 3: And one of the things to keep in mind mentioning

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Speaker 3: energy is ev Electric vehicles is a big, big transition

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Speaker 3: happening in the state. There's a lot of people concerned

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Speaker 3: we're rushing it. Maybe we're going to weaken the auto companies.

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Speaker 3: It's a mandate and not necessarily popular with all the

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Speaker 3: rank and file. However, it does seem like the kind

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Speaker 3: of thing that will work itself out eventually when the

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Speaker 3: union gets more engaged.

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Speaker 1: That's interesting to me. After all, we have a president

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Speaker 1: right now, who's often referred to as union Joe. He's

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Speaker 1: been a big backer of labor. In September, he became

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Speaker 1: the first US president to ever join the picket line.

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Speaker 1: Here's what he had to say when he was there.

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Speaker 5: Talking about her, is that you guys, uaw, you've saved

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Speaker 5: the autobile industry. Back at two of how they and

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Speaker 5: the floors made a lot of sacrifices, gave up a lot,

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Speaker 5: and the companies were in trouble. But now they're doing

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Speaker 5: incredibly well. And guess what you should be doing incredibly

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Speaker 5: well too, say.

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Speaker 1: Biden has his reputation of being the average Joe, the

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Speaker 1: guy who takes trains and supports union workers. But looking

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Speaker 1: at the polling numbers that we've just gotten, that doesn't

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Speaker 1: seem to resonate in Michigan with these auto workers. Jeff,

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Speaker 1: I'm curious, why do you think that is?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think it comes down to a lot of things.

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Speaker 3: We're looking at inflation. It doesn't matter that inflation is

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Speaker 3: moderating because it doesn't mean prices are going down. Autoworkers

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Speaker 3: are just like everyone else at Michigan. What they want

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Speaker 3: is a better economy with lower prices and they're concerned

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Speaker 3: that maybe Biden isn't bringing them that, and Trump does

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Speaker 3: really well with sort of his populous message, you know,

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Speaker 3: make it in America. A lot of the things he said,

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Speaker 3: he took away some of the thunder from Joe Biden

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Speaker 3: when he said a lot of the same things. He

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Speaker 3: went after NAFTA, which is the North American Free Trade Agreement,

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Speaker 3: things that the autoworkers didn't like. They are kind of

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Speaker 3: a fickle bunch. I mean, they tend to as an

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Speaker 3: organization at the top go for a Democrat, but the

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Speaker 3: members can go either way. We talked to the Michigan

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Speaker 3: Democratic Chair, Levora Barnes, and she kind of summed up

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Speaker 3: what she thinks will ultimately happen as this develops.

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Speaker 6: When the UAW turt that focused, when labor unions all

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Speaker 6: turn their focus on this election, they'll remember that this

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Speaker 6: is the president who has stood with them and stood

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Speaker 6: by them year after year and will continue to and

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Speaker 6: they will come to Democrats.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure of that, Wendy.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious about your reaction to that.

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Speaker 2: Oh, you saw me shaking my head. The trouble is

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Speaker 2: that that has been the message for Democrats all along,

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Speaker 2: that at some point everyone will suddenly realize all the

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Speaker 2: great things Biden did for them and they will vote

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Speaker 2: for him. The trouble is, biden messaging is landing flat.

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Speaker 2: He's been to Michigan, he has talked about biden nomics,

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Speaker 2: which actually started off as an insult by Republicans, and

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Speaker 2: now he has adopted it much the way Obama did

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Speaker 2: with Obamacare. But it is not working as well as

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Speaker 2: it did for Obama. But every time he tries to

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Speaker 2: sell his accomplishments to people, they just don't seem to

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Speaker 2: give him credit for it. He's not getting credit for

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Speaker 2: the student loan cancelation of one hundred and twenty seven

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Speaker 2: billion dollars. He's not getting credit for the Inflation Reduction Act,

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Speaker 2: or for the economy that is getting better. And if

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Speaker 2: Democrats want to win, I think they will have to

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Speaker 2: try a new message because so far, with plenty of

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Speaker 2: time to rebuild that message, this message isn't working well.

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Speaker 1: On that note, we're going to take a quick break.

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Speaker 1: Then we'll hear more about what's on the mine of

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Speaker 1: Michigan voters and what this swing state can tell us

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Speaker 1: about how the rest of the country might vote. We're

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Speaker 1: back with my Bloomberg colleagues Wendy Benjaminson in Washington and

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Speaker 1: Jeff Green in Michigan, and we're talking about the latest

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Morning consult poll. It showed that Trump has pulled

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Speaker 1: ahead of Biden among prospective voters in the state. Wendy Jeff,

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Speaker 1: you both mentioned how important the economy is in Michigan.

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Speaker 2: Our poll shows that.

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Speaker 1: It's the top issue for voters. It also finds that

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Speaker 1: voters trust Trump more than Biden when it comes to

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Speaker 1: the economy, by a fourteen point margin, even as inflation

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Speaker 1: continues to slow and the US keeps adding jobs. What

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Speaker 1: do you think is behind that, Well.

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Speaker 3: It's maybe nostalgia. There was a couple references to looking

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Speaker 3: at where things were prior to twenty nineteen, prior to COVID,

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Speaker 3: and that's when Trump was president.

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Speaker 2: And they are thinking about a pre COVID world when

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump was running the country, and that was a

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Speaker 2: time when inflation was low and the economy was humming along. Yes,

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Speaker 2: but Biden was taking the country out of the COVID economy.

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Speaker 2: And even though that is doing well by all the

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Speaker 2: statistics that we hear at Bloomberg follow very closely, voters

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Speaker 2: are not feeling it yet, and that is what is

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Speaker 2: going to affect people when they get to the voting both.

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Speaker 3: Also, Michigan's inflation rate is a bit above the country

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Speaker 3: and a bit above the Midwest, so I think people

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Speaker 3: are feeling it a little bit more here.

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Speaker 1: But when it comes to the economy and gender, our

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Speaker 1: poll found that eight out of ten women in Michigan

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Speaker 1: think the economy is on the wrong track.

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Speaker 3: I did talk to an economist at the University of Michigan,

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Speaker 3: Sarah Miller, and she had some thoughts on why women

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Speaker 3: who are supporting Trump in rural and suburban areas more

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Speaker 3: so than Biden, might be seeing this as a more

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Speaker 3: important issue than in other parts of the country.

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Speaker 7: Women in particular are saying they're more concerned about prices

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Speaker 7: and inflation prices rising, and in particular, they're more likely

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Speaker 7: than men to say they're concerned about food prices, household

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Speaker 7: supply prices, utility prices, whereas men tend to say they're

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Speaker 7: more worried than women when it comes to gas prices,

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Speaker 7: the prices of restaurants, parsus of entertainment, and so I

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Speaker 7: I think some of this can reflect just a different

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Speaker 7: division of labor in the household. And just to be clear,

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Speaker 7: you know, it's not that men weren't concerned about food,

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Speaker 7: it was just that women were even more concerned than men.

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Speaker 7: Both groups are very concerned, but it was a bit

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Speaker 7: higher on the women's side.

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Speaker 1: So it seems like Biden might have lost women in Michigan.

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Speaker 1: But I was at a party last week in Washington

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Speaker 1: and there were a lot of ex Trump officials there.

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Speaker 1: They were giving me a sense that there was the

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Speaker 1: same concern for Trump that he also has not won women,

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Speaker 1: particularly suburban women. Wendy, what do you think about that?

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Speaker 2: I think Trump has always had trouble gaining the support

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Speaker 2: of suburban women, but this time he has taken what

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Speaker 2: seems to be a very smart self marketing strategy in

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Speaker 2: hitting on one issue that suburban women see as important

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Speaker 2: besides the economy, and that is the importance of abortion.

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Speaker 2: We've seen in one Republican state after another, even Republican

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Speaker 2: voters voting in favor of referenda that allow abortion access

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Speaker 2: in their state. And so Trump, who has always campaigned

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Speaker 2: as a devotee of the evangelical Christian right, has taken

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Speaker 2: a very moderate or more to the point vague stance

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Speaker 2: on where he stands on abortion rights, and I believe

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Speaker 2: that is a strategy to capture suburban women.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to dig into the broader picture with you, Wendy.

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Speaker 1: You've covered eight elections. What does Michigan tell us about

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Speaker 1: what's happening in the rest of the country.

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Speaker 2: Michigan is a good lab for what's happening in the

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Speaker 2: rest of the country because it has such a mix

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Speaker 2: of people. You have, you know, the big city of Detroit,

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Speaker 2: which is a majority minority city in the sense that

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Speaker 2: most people who live there are not white. Then you

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Speaker 2: have the rural areas where Trump has a tremendous amount

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Speaker 2: of support, and you have a sort of solid Midwestern attitude.

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Speaker 2: Michigan is a blue state now, but it swings back

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Speaker 2: and forth and is a must win, as you might call.

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Speaker 2: In twenty sixteen, Hillary Clinton did not win Michigan, and

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Speaker 2: we see what happened. Trump won the election. In twenty twenty,

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Speaker 2: Biden did win Michigan, and now he's president. Whoever wins

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Speaker 2: Michigan wins the presidency.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Jeff, the final word goes to you, why do

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Speaker 1: you think that your state, the state of Michigan is

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Speaker 1: so important to our national elections.

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Speaker 3: I think a lot of people remember we're the home

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Speaker 3: of the Reagan Democrats. I mean, we are the state

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Speaker 3: that swings. We swing, and we tend to have it.

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Speaker 3: Like Wendy said, we tend to have an influence on

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Speaker 3: who wins. And there's also some other unique aspects we

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Speaker 3: talked about. The United Auto Workers labor is a big

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Speaker 3: part of the state and if Biden loses ground there

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Speaker 3: that doesn't bode well. We do have a significant ari

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Speaker 3: ofb American population here in the war between Israel and

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Speaker 3: Hamas is playing poorly for Biden here among Palestinians. So

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Speaker 3: all those things are factors that could show up in

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Speaker 3: the general election that we have to think about. But

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Speaker 3: I think at the end of the day, Michigan tends

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Speaker 3: to have a big say and who becomes president.

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Speaker 1: Thank you both so much, Thanks for having us, Thanks

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Speaker 1: for having us, Thanks for listening to the Big Take

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Speaker 1: from Bloomberg News. I'm Seleiah Mosen. This episode was produced

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Speaker 1: by Anamazarakis and Naomi Shaven. It was fact checked by

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Speaker 1: Julia Press. It's part of a special series from our

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Speaker 1: DC newsroom. Blake Maples is our mix engineer. Our story

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Speaker 1: editors are Caitlin Kenney and Mike Shephard. Sage Bauman is

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Speaker 1: our executive producer and head of Podcasts. Thanks for tuning in.