1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,720 Speaker 2: Hey Max Schafkin here, co host of elon Inc. You're 3 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:14,520 Speaker 2: about to hear a pilot of a new show that 4 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:17,079 Speaker 2: I've been working on for the past few months. It's 5 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 2: called Everybody's Business. It features me and the great business 6 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 2: and financial journalist Stacy Vanick Smith, plus just a huge 7 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 2: contingent of some of the smartest, most interesting journalists we know. 8 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:36,880 Speaker 2: These include Lucas Shaw, Amanda Maul, brad Stone, Randall Williams. 9 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 2: Each week, we're going to be taking the big business 10 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 2: stories that everyone is talking about and we're going to 11 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 2: spin them forward with fresh reporting, with analysis, with smart takes. 12 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:50,240 Speaker 2: It's a little bit like elon Ink, but a much 13 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 2: broader look at the world. We've been working on it 14 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 2: for months and just having a lot of fun, and 15 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 2: we think you're going to enjoy it too. The show 16 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 2: officially debuts on May sixteen. It'll be in its own 17 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 2: podcast feed, but for now, for the next few weeks, 18 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 2: it'll be here in the e lining feed every Friday, 19 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 2: and we really hope you'll listen and let us know 20 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 2: what you think. 21 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:20,759 Speaker 1: This is Everybody's Business from Bloomberg BusinessWeek. 22 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 3: I'm Max Chafkin and I'm Stacy Vanixsmith. Hey, Stacy, Hello, 23 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 3: I have a question for you, Max. 24 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:27,479 Speaker 1: What is your question? 25 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 4: Fine morning? Are you feeling liberated? 26 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 2: Well, I mean I am, because yesterday was Liberation Day. 27 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: Was liberation now, but I am not sure what I 28 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:38,320 Speaker 1: feel liberated from. 29 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 2: It almost feels like I'm liberated from any sense of normalcy. 30 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:45,199 Speaker 3: Yeah, reality, Yes, I feel like a lot of people 31 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 3: are feeling that way. I think that has to be 32 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 3: the theme of our show this week, liberation, because, of course, 33 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 3: the big economic news like you just said, or maybe 34 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 3: even kind of like an economic bombshell. It felt more 35 00:01:56,320 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 3: like President Trump on Wednesday aka Liberation Day, unveiled our 36 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 3: country's new tariff policy and it was pretty shocking. Markets 37 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 3: are panicking, companies are panicking, countries are panicking. 38 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 4: I am panicking also too. We can talk about that. 39 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 2: I am not panicking, Stacy, but I'll tell you on 40 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 2: the rest of the show, we're going to continue the 41 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 2: liberation theme. 42 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:19,119 Speaker 1: We're going to talk about. 43 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 2: The prospect that TikTok might be liberated from China. 44 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 3: Yet one person's liberation is another person's acquisition. 45 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:32,119 Speaker 2: Indeed, and I've got an underrated story about liberating ourselves 46 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 2: from the constraints of how we think about baseball bats 47 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 2: that has loomed. 48 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:38,639 Speaker 4: So large in my mind for so many years. I'm 49 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:45,360 Speaker 4: glad to know that. But first, of course, you know, 50 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 4: this is everybody's business. 51 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 3: We wanted to see how everybody was feeling about the 52 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 3: tariff news out of the White House this week, so 53 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 3: we had our producer Stacy Wong and Magnus Hendrickson go 54 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 3: out into the streets to ask the people, are you 55 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 3: worried that tariffs are going to cause prices to go up? 56 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 5: I am worried about prices going up. 57 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 6: Yes, I'm very concerned about prices going up. 58 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 1: I think it just feels like out of my control. 59 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 2: On a scale of like one to ten, I'll probably 60 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:12,520 Speaker 2: say like middle of the. 61 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: Pack, five. I haven't really thought of it that much. 62 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: I expect to be surprised. 63 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 5: I'm like, Okay, well, prices are growing up. 64 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 2: I need to make some adjustments in life. 65 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 5: I work in real estate construction. This affects especially like 66 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 5: lives of New Yorkers. Have you been hoarding anything? 67 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:27,399 Speaker 7: Oh? 68 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 1: No, honestly, I've thought about it. 69 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 3: I am currently in the process of planning a wedding, so. 70 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 6: Right now, I don't have a lot of purchasing capacity, and. 71 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 3: Living in New York City, we have very little space 72 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 3: to hoard anything. 73 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 6: Toilet paper, beans, finny fish, the residual pandemic hoarding. 74 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 2: Oh wow, I mean, do you think people people are 75 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 2: really hoarding beans and toilet paper? 76 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: That's crazy. 77 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 3: I mean, if I sort of thought about it, I 78 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 3: started to think about what products I really love that 79 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 3: are from overseas that might get enormously more expensive in 80 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 3: the next couple weeks. 81 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 2: Honestly, like listening to that, I just feel deficient because 82 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 2: I did not make any purchasing changes, no rewarding hallowing 83 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 2: the incredible economic uncertainty, the chaos regime or whatever to 84 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 2: just wash over me. 85 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 4: All right, Max, let's get into it. 86 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 3: Liberation Day tariffs The numbers that got unveiled this week 87 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:41,160 Speaker 3: were pretty shocking, I think, higher than anybody thoughts. 88 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 2: Let's just listen to a snippet from this incredible event, 89 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 2: my fellow Americans. 90 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 7: This is Liberation Day waiting for a long time. April second, 91 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:56,679 Speaker 7: twenty twenty five will forever be remembered as the day 92 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 7: American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed 93 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 7: and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. 94 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:11,840 Speaker 3: L Day, Stacy L Day, A liberation Day, make America 95 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 3: wealthy again. I mean, I hesitate to point this out, 96 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 3: but like we are already the wealthiest country in the world. 97 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 4: I don't even know what to say. I'm at a loss. 98 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 4: I'm at a loss. 99 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 2: Stacy's having trouble articulating here because what is happening is 100 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 2: so weird and so surprising and so outside of the 101 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 2: norms of what somebody who follows the economy, like having 102 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:37,600 Speaker 2: nothing to do with politics, expects out of a government. 103 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 2: It's it's like we've instantly gone back in time. I 104 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:43,040 Speaker 2: don't know what, like one hundred and twenty years or 105 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:43,600 Speaker 2: something to. 106 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 1: Do the time of mercantilism? Is that baby? 107 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 3: So let's take a look at what exactly happened on 108 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 3: Liberation Day. Let's let's look at these numbers. Thirty four 109 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 3: percent tariffs on goods from China, twenty percent tax on 110 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 3: anything from the EU to twenty four percent tax on 111 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 3: goods from Japan. Those are our top trading partners, along 112 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 3: with Canada and Mexico. 113 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, and the other thing, Stacy like, thirty four percent 114 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 2: of good of tariffs on goods from China. But that's 115 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:13,799 Speaker 2: on top of tariffs are already there. So that's fifty 116 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 2: four percent. 117 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 3: Most of the stuff we import from China. That is 118 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:19,919 Speaker 3: fifty four percent tax on a. 119 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 1: Lot okay stuff. 120 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:24,719 Speaker 2: And not only that, but over the past decade or so, 121 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,280 Speaker 2: a lot of companies have moved manufacturing away from China 122 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 2: because they saw this coming. 123 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:31,479 Speaker 1: They moved it to places like Vietnam now there or. 124 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 4: Apple moved a lot of its operations to India. 125 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, big tariffs on those countries as well. So the timing, 126 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:39,479 Speaker 2: it's not immediate immediate, but it's going to happen in 127 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 2: the next couple of weeks. 128 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:44,040 Speaker 1: Basically, yes, I was really, really shook. 129 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 3: I was not expecting the numbers to be as high 130 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 3: as they were. And I've talked to economists of all 131 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 3: political stripes for a lot of years, and I have 132 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 3: to say, no serious economists thinks that like large scale 133 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:01,720 Speaker 3: protects of tariffs are a good idea. 134 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 4: It's bad for an economy. 135 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 3: I mean, it would be like finding a doctor that 136 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:07,359 Speaker 3: said smoking was good for your health, Like it just 137 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 3: doesn't really exist. I think you can find economists say 138 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 3: in certain situations like very targeted tariffs. 139 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 2: But can you just explain quickly why, because like you've 140 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 2: spent a lot of time supporting on the economy, why 141 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 2: are they so against it. 142 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 3: Well, tariffs are at tax essentially, right, I mean, this 143 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 3: is the tax. JP Morgan actually came out saying this 144 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 3: is the largest tax like the USS and since nineteen 145 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 3: sixty eight. So if you think of it like a tax, 146 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 3: it's pretty simple. So basically, you are taxing the things 147 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 3: that we import. Two thirds of our economy is consumer spending. 148 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 3: That is the load bearing beam of the US economy 149 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 3: is you and me buying stuff. So anything that gets 150 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 3: in the way of that really threatens to compromise our 151 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 3: whole economy. So when prices go up by fifty percent, 152 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 3: even twenty percent, thirty percent, we've all been through inflation 153 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 3: from COVID. Those prices go what people buy less, which 154 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 3: means companies sell less, they make less money, They stop expanding, 155 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 3: which means they stop hiring, which means they can start 156 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:06,080 Speaker 3: firing people, which leads to economic contraction. 157 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 4: And then like we're in. 158 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 3: The situation of at least like darkness and dragons, except like, 159 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 3: I'm not sure we can afford dragons. 160 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 4: It's bad. 161 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 1: It's bad, yeah, I mean. 162 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 2: Writing in his Odd Lots newsletter this morning, our colleague 163 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 2: and fellow Bloomberg podcaster Joe Wisenthal said it was one 164 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 2: of the craziest days he could remember. You saw the 165 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 2: stock market kind of tip in real time as they 166 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 2: figured out just how. 167 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: Big Trump had gone. 168 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 2: There had been all these reports kind of over the 169 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 2: last couple of weeks and even beyond that, about is 170 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 2: it just gonna be a little tariff, is this a 171 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 2: negotiating thing. 172 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 4: And is it gonna be kind of vague? 173 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 2: You had all these contingents both within the White House 174 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 2: and maybe on Wall Street, who I think we're kind 175 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 2: of wish casting, right, and of just hoping somehow they 176 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 2: would be able to bring Trump around to the consensus view, 177 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 2: the one that you just expressed, which is that, of course, 178 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:00,719 Speaker 2: tariffs are bad for our economy, as can instructed, it's 179 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 2: like a massive tax on consumers. Trump had this weird 180 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:06,440 Speaker 2: moment during the event where he talked about groceries. 181 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:08,079 Speaker 1: He's like, I love that word groceries. 182 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 5: Oh my god. 183 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 1: It was a very strange. 184 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 4: It was very long. 185 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 1: It's like a policy designed to make groceries. 186 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 4: More expensive moments of poetry. 187 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,439 Speaker 2: Many of these things that are being tariffed are things 188 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 2: we do not grow in the United States. So that's 189 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 2: why everyone was hoping it would be less bad. 190 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 1: And here we are. It's sort of what the normy 191 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 1: business types feared. 192 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,440 Speaker 3: I was watching the announcement here at Bloomberg in the newsroom, 193 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,559 Speaker 3: and here at Bloomberg, everybody's got like five computer screens. 194 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 3: They're all covered in various charts and graphs at all moments. 195 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 3: And I looked out across the newsroom and all the 196 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 3: charts were read, Like as Trump was talking, all the 197 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 3: charts were read. 198 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 4: But this is where I was sort of hoping you. 199 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 3: Could offer a ray of light, Max, because you have 200 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 3: covered the people in this administration Trump, Trump's interactions with 201 00:09:57,400 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 3: business for a long time. And I I thought, maybe, like, 202 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 3: is this typical Trumpian blusters? This is shot across the bow, 203 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 3: throw us some hope. 204 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 2: I'm also just by nature like disagreeable, and my tendency 205 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 2: when like all of these economics are like this is bad, 206 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 2: I'm like. 207 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 1: It must be good. 208 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 2: Then I think there are two ways you can go here, 209 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 2: and but they don't agree with one another. So one 210 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 2: is this contingent I just talked about, which is like 211 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 2: Scott the Scent, the Treasury Secretary, the CEOs of major banks, 212 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 2: probably like many of the business journalists people like us 213 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 2: who write about the economy and share this kind of 214 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 2: consensus view is that Trump is actually not going to 215 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:36,680 Speaker 2: go through with this. Like the stock market is down 216 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 2: as we speak on Thursday morning, but it's not down 217 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:40,719 Speaker 2: that much. 218 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:42,200 Speaker 1: It's like down four or five percent. 219 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:45,079 Speaker 2: You're talking like he just broke the world, and the 220 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 2: S and P five hundred. 221 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:49,079 Speaker 4: It's a little bit that way when I was watching it, Yes. 222 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 1: I know. 223 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 2: So my point is clearly there are many people who 224 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 2: think this is yet another negotiating post. We saw this 225 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 2: with the situation with Mexico and Canada where he announced 226 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 2: these huge tariffs and kind of basically pulled many of 227 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 2: them back. You have people in Trump's inner circle already 228 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:08,319 Speaker 2: signaling that this is sort of a starting point of 229 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 2: a negotiation that is not the ending point of a negotiation. 230 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:13,319 Speaker 4: He's making him an offer they can't refuse. 231 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: And maybe that could work. 232 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 2: The other thing, and this is a sort of different 233 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 2: reason which you might feel optimistic, is like, look, there 234 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 2: are things about this economy that you describe this consensus 235 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 2: view that are very bad, like a world, a world 236 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,960 Speaker 2: where we just buy all this cheap crap and pay 237 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 2: huge sums of money to ship it often by air, 238 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 2: creating huge climate consequences around the world. Like it is 239 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:45,000 Speaker 2: not good for the world. It's arguably like a bad 240 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:47,480 Speaker 2: way for us to go through life. And maybe like 241 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 2: this kind of consensus view did that to us. And 242 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:53,720 Speaker 2: if we were able to like move towards a world 243 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 2: where more of our stuff is made locally, like that 244 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 2: would be a stronger and more sustainable country. I could 245 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 2: almost believe that the problem is that the other point 246 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 2: I just made kind of undercuts it because businesses don't 247 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 2: really believe. 248 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 1: This is going to happen. 249 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 2: Even now, We're not going to see like shoe factories 250 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 2: or whatever open in the United States because no one's 251 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:15,959 Speaker 2: going to invest years and years and years to set 252 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 2: up a whole new supply chain when they could just 253 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:20,000 Speaker 2: wait till the next election or till when you know, 254 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 2: Trump changes his mind. 255 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 3: Also, wages are really high in this country. I read 256 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,439 Speaker 3: a great article in Forbes about how much an iPhone 257 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:29,560 Speaker 3: would cost if it were entirely made inside of the US, 258 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 3: and the estimate was between thirty and one hundred thousand dollars. 259 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 3: So moving manufacturing back to the US and you know, 260 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 3: making everything here, yes, you're right, it would be sustainable, 261 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,959 Speaker 3: but things would get massively more expensive. That's why we've 262 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 3: outsourced in the first place, and it's made all kinds 263 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 3: of goods affordable. I think you make a great point 264 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,960 Speaker 3: that maybe our economy is over dependent on US consumers, 265 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,319 Speaker 3: and in fact, sixteen percent of the global economy is 266 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 3: Americans buying stuff. 267 00:12:58,160 --> 00:12:59,560 Speaker 2: But I just want to say that kind of thought 268 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 2: experiment and you just gave. Even somebody who's for these 269 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 2: tariffs is not like, oh, yeah, we should pay one 270 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 2: hundred thousand dollars for an iPhone. Now, they're just saying 271 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:09,679 Speaker 2: you should pay fifty percent more for some of these components. 272 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 2: You should ask consumers to pay a tax for the 273 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:16,880 Speaker 2: downstream consequences of this supply chain. Like I only, that's crazy. 274 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 2: We talk about that with environmental stuff all the time. 275 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 2: I think a lot of these businesses and economists and 276 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 2: so on don't think the idea of a carbon tax, for. 277 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 1: Instance, is crazy, which also is just a massive drain 278 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 1: on consumer spending. 279 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 3: So yes, but then you put things way out of 280 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,959 Speaker 3: reach of a lot of people, especially lower income people, 281 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 3: middle income people. Suddenly cars and smartphones are out of 282 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 3: reach for them. 283 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 4: That is not a great situation, I would argue, Okay, 284 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:42,079 Speaker 4: I want to. 285 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:43,320 Speaker 1: Stop defending this for a second. 286 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 2: We have to talk about this formula, the science that 287 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 2: produced these tariffs, the. 288 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:52,559 Speaker 3: Science that produce these tariffs. Actually, there was a formula 289 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 3: that was used so that you take the trade deficit 290 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:58,720 Speaker 3: for the US in goods with a particular country, you 291 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:03,559 Speaker 3: divide that by the goods that that country imports. 292 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 2: Wait, yeah, you take it's the train deficit divided by 293 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 2: imports divided by two. 294 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:11,360 Speaker 1: For some reason. 295 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:14,560 Speaker 2: Okay, listeners, if we got that wrong, send us an email. 296 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 2: Everybody's at Bloomberg dot net. But you know this is 297 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 2: weird because number one, they talked about reciprocal tariffs. And 298 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 2: you might think, oh, so that means like, if one 299 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 2: country is charging a twenty percent tax on imports from 300 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 2: our country, will. 301 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 1: Charge yes, twenty percent on theirs. That is not what's happening. 302 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 2: We're basing this on like how much stuff do we 303 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 2: export to them? If we export a lot to them, 304 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 2: the tariff's going to be lower. Yeah, and now maybe 305 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 2: that makes sense from a negotiating perspective, but it's just 306 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 2: kind of crazy because it creates all these weird situations 307 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,720 Speaker 2: where these like very poor countries are gonna have huge tariffs, 308 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 2: gonna be all the harder for them to grow their economies. 309 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 3: And also, like US consumers buying stuff is also like 310 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 3: one of the biggest parts of is economy, Japan's economy, 311 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 3: but also of Vietnam's economy, Mexico's economy. It's going to 312 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 3: be a really tough situation for us and for everyone 313 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 3: in the world. Like I can't think of a country 314 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 3: that's not affecting all right. 315 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 1: One other thing on this formula. 316 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 2: And again this is speculation, but there are people suggesting, 317 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 2: and I think this is plausible that the formula was 318 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 2: created by chat gpt, because we're true. If you plug 319 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 2: like how would you do a tariff into some of 320 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 2: these chatbots, they give like these kind of similar formulations. 321 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 2: And if this is true, which it very well might 322 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 2: may not be, I think that it is maybe the 323 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 2: first step in seeing the limits of AI. 324 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: AI. 325 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, AI should not be setting tariffs, but I did 326 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 3: want to end on the kind of a positive note, 327 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 3: which is I did find a few silver linings in 328 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 3: our tariff situation, and I brought them in to the studio. 329 00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 2: Are these like a good old fashioned American made products 330 00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 2: or what? 331 00:15:57,320 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 4: No, quite the opposite. So one of them is this. 332 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 1: It's a can of coke. It's like a tall boy 333 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: of coke. 334 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 3: It's like it's a can of diy coke. It was 335 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 3: the only one I could find at the Dwayne read. 336 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,480 Speaker 3: President Trump apparently drinks twelve of these a day, twelve. 337 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 3: But there was an exemption on aluminium steel, okay, which 338 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 3: is really good because aluminium steel are literally in everything 339 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 3: from buildings to home appliances to cans of coke. 340 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 4: So that is one silver lining okay. 341 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 3: And then there were a couple when you calculated out 342 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 3: the formula, a couple countries that came out looking pretty okay. 343 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 3: One of them flowers flowers from Columbia. 344 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 1: So Columbia exempt or what ten percent? 345 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:38,400 Speaker 5: Okay? 346 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 3: So these flowers, this is Dwyane Raid, so they're nineteen 347 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 3: ninety nine, so they will you know, we're talking about 348 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 3: like maybe twenty one dollars or twenty two dollars. 349 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 1: Are there any other products, Stacy, Yes, that are are final. 350 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:59,120 Speaker 3: I think you're going to be very excited about this one. 351 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:05,159 Speaker 3: It's a bag of something idiot. It's Eastern candy Cadbury. 352 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:09,120 Speaker 3: So the UK ended up looking okay in all this. 353 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 3: It's like the only moment where Brexit seemed like a 354 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 3: good economic idea was on Liberation Day. Because because they 355 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:20,920 Speaker 3: don't you has like twenty plus percent tariffs, the UK 356 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 3: got off with a ten percent tariff, meaning that chocolate 357 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:28,680 Speaker 3: from Cadbury and products from the UK, the prices will 358 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:30,639 Speaker 3: go up less than the prices for other things. 359 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,400 Speaker 4: We can eat our feelings a little bit. 360 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 1: Drink them and get ourselves flowers. 361 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 2: It's not. 362 00:17:58,920 --> 00:17:59,880 Speaker 1: Okay, Stacey. 363 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 2: Do you remember like when we were younger and more innocent, 364 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 2: like two months ago, and the. 365 00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 1: Big source a couple of days ago of. 366 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 2: Business uncertainty was TikTok, like wood trump band, TikTok, the 367 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 2: very popular, very large social media Well, people probably missed 368 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 2: it with all the excitement of Liberation Day. But two 369 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 2: days from today, as we're recording, this is Liberation Day, 370 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 2: park Dood. 371 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 1: It's the day that TikTok. 372 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:27,439 Speaker 3: I think you have to pay a tax if you 373 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,160 Speaker 3: use friends to sell itself. 374 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 2: It's the deadline for the Chinese owners of TikTok Byte 375 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 2: Dance to sell it assumingly to a US owner. There's 376 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:39,639 Speaker 2: been a lot of news here and I want to 377 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 2: talk about it, but because it's kind of related to 378 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 2: the conversation we had, but also just because this is 379 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,879 Speaker 2: a huge story in its own right. And we have my 380 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 2: favorite technology journalist Bradstone, who also is my boss, the 381 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:51,640 Speaker 2: editor of Bloomberg Business Week. 382 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 1: Yes, indeed here with us virtually today. How are you doing, Brad? 383 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:55,760 Speaker 6: Hi? 384 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 5: Guys happy TikTok almost TikTok. 385 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 2: Liberation Day is part liberation part two? 386 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:02,160 Speaker 1: Is that right? 387 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 5: That sounds right? 388 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,160 Speaker 1: So Brett, just to. 389 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 2: Catch us up, like, where do things stand with TikTok 390 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 2: right now? 391 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 1: So April fifth? What do we expect to happen or 392 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:13,640 Speaker 1: what has to happen? 393 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 5: Well, it may happen before then. 394 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,760 Speaker 6: It almost seems like as we speak right now in 395 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 6: the Oval Office, there are discussions, led in part by 396 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:27,119 Speaker 6: Vice President jd Vance, evaluating some of these deals to 397 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:31,440 Speaker 6: buy the US arm of TikTok, And there is reporting 398 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 6: that there is a coalition led by some very Trump 399 00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 6: friendly allies, including the venture capital firm Entries and Horowitz, Blackstone, 400 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 6: of course, Steve Schwartzman, who sort of famously endorsed Trump 401 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:48,680 Speaker 6: during the campaign, Silver Lake, other large private capital investors 402 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 6: to buy TikTok's US business, and then I guess licensed 403 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 6: the algorithm from bytem Still a couple of questions about 404 00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:57,400 Speaker 6: how that will work. 405 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:02,520 Speaker 2: So I encountered this story in the This Morning and like, 406 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 2: honestly one of the crazier deal stories I've ever read. 407 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:07,879 Speaker 2: So Brad, you you hit part of it, which is 408 00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 2: that you have this collection of like Trump adjacent venture capitalists, 409 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 2: like people who are either have like donated huge sums 410 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,640 Speaker 2: of money to Trump's campaign or are like in at 411 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,439 Speaker 2: mar Lago pretty much on the regularly, like Mark Andresen. 412 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,679 Speaker 2: So that's fifty percent of this proposed deal. And I 413 00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 2: did mention Oracle right right, there's this line, and there's 414 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 2: a line in a story out of nowhere Oracle, co 415 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 2: founded by Trump ally Larry Elson, would secure TikTok's US 416 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 2: data as part of the deal. So like somehow Oracle 417 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 2: gets the data, the algorithm goes someplace else. There's also 418 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,119 Speaker 2: a line in this story which I enjoyed. One person 419 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,719 Speaker 2: caution that the situation remained fluid, and that was possible, 420 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 2: the White House would abruptly change its plans, which like, do. 421 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 1: You have to write that I know a Trump's story anymore? 422 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,320 Speaker 3: Can't we just like that's just the paragraph you can 423 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,440 Speaker 3: cut and paste into any story right now? 424 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 6: But my question if bite Dance is remains a twenty 425 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 6: percent owner of the business and is in some way 426 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:09,440 Speaker 6: licensing the algorithm to these US investors, these new owners, 427 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 6: then how are we resolving the privacy questions the war 428 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 6: gaming of Is TikTok a safe kind of social network? 429 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 6: If it's partially owned by the Chinese government? How are 430 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:23,439 Speaker 6: we resolving any of the fundamental issues that Donald Trump 431 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 6: identified I think rightfully identified almost eight years ago. Does 432 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 6: this deal really resolve it? I think that's still an 433 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:29,919 Speaker 6: open question. 434 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,159 Speaker 4: And Bye Dance has said that they are not going 435 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:33,880 Speaker 4: to sell right. 436 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,680 Speaker 6: I think they've they've softened it a little bit, particularly 437 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:40,719 Speaker 6: with this still ambiguous maybe understanding that they would retain 438 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 6: They're not selling the algorithm, they're merely licensing it. 439 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 5: That was the sticking point. 440 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 2: Can we just quickly talk about some of these other bids, 441 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:52,160 Speaker 2: I mean, Brad, first of all, there's this Frank mccor 442 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 2: former owner of the La Dodgers crypto bid. I think 443 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 2: that's still around, and I think no one anyone is taking. 444 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 1: That seriously, maybe besides Frank mccorn. I'm not sure that 445 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:03,360 Speaker 1: sounds right. 446 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 6: He wanted to put it in some equivalent of like 447 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 6: an open source, public trust source the algorithm make it 448 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,240 Speaker 6: a little bit more accountable. That does not seem to 449 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 6: be where the current conversation is going. 450 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:16,960 Speaker 2: I have to say, speaking of accountability, Brad Jeff Bezos 451 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,199 Speaker 2: swooping in at the last minute with a letter to 452 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 2: Vice President jd Vance, I believe, offering that he could 453 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:24,880 Speaker 2: take it over himself. 454 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:25,760 Speaker 5: Right. 455 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,960 Speaker 6: Well, the deal comes from Amazon, right, And I don't 456 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,439 Speaker 6: know how Jeff Bezos kind of propelled this is. I mean, 457 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 6: I think a Milania Trump forty million dollar documentary that 458 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 6: Amazon is funding does feel like a Bezos project. But 459 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:45,480 Speaker 6: you know Amazon, Amazon does have a record of trying 460 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 6: to come into these deals to give itself. 461 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 5: Some optionality to be part of the process. 462 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,600 Speaker 6: I mean, I'm old enough to remember when Amazon was 463 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,159 Speaker 6: rumored to be buying AMC theaters or Dish networks. But 464 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 6: here it would make a lot of sense. I mean, Amazon, 465 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:02,680 Speaker 6: you know, sees a shopping is becoming social. It experimented 466 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 6: with its own short form video service called Inspire, which 467 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 6: it had to shut down. TikTok shop is massive, like 468 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:14,440 Speaker 6: thirty billion in gross merchandise sales last year. And then 469 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 6: you've got to remember Amazon's becoming an advertising juggernaut, and 470 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,439 Speaker 6: they would basically be unifying like the number three and 471 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 6: number four players behind Google and Meta, So that makes 472 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 6: a lot of sense. 473 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,440 Speaker 5: It was sort of immediately dismissed. 474 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 6: I mean, the thing is that you know jd Evance 475 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 6: to the extent that he is leading this project is 476 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 6: you know, sort of shared some of the antitrust values 477 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,479 Speaker 6: with the Biden White House, and it's really hard to believe, 478 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 6: you know, despite however many dinners. Jeff Bezos has had 479 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,600 Speaker 6: a mar a lago that the Trump administration would hand 480 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:48,480 Speaker 6: over this valuable asset to a big tech company like Amazon. 481 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 2: Now, there was a potential other buyer who came up 482 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,200 Speaker 2: a couple months ago, which which made a certain sense, 483 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,920 Speaker 2: which is Elon Musk. And the reason, I know that's 484 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 2: crazy side why not, But beyond the fact that hey, 485 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,480 Speaker 2: he runs a lot of businesses, he's close to Donald Trump, 486 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 2: Musk was seen and This is how it was reported 487 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 2: at the time as someone that Beijing that the Chinese 488 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:11,920 Speaker 2: government which is going to have to prove this deal 489 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 2: because it would be the sale of a major, very 490 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 2: valuable Chinese company, basically the force sale of a major 491 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:25,399 Speaker 2: Chinese asset into US hands. Do we think that Beijing 492 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 2: could get comfortable with either of these deals, Brad? I mean, like, 493 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:31,879 Speaker 2: I don't know about Bezos. Maybe that's one of the 494 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 2: reasons these the venture capitalists sort of make sense. Like 495 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,480 Speaker 2: a lot of these guys have track records of doing 496 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,879 Speaker 2: business in China, and maybe it's easier to kind of 497 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,719 Speaker 2: get with a consortium where the Chinese company still has 498 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 2: like a substantial stake in the whole enterprise. 499 00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 1: I don't know. 500 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,520 Speaker 6: I mean, I recall from earlier this year that Elon 501 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:51,919 Speaker 6: made a public statement that he was not interested in 502 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,199 Speaker 6: buying TikTok. I don't know if we take that at 503 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 6: face value. I think for the Chinese government, right the 504 00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,159 Speaker 6: options are limited. I mean, it has become clear or 505 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:01,959 Speaker 6: now for many years that they were going to be 506 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 6: forced to divest this asset, and I think what they're 507 00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 6: negotiating for now is less a particular buyer and more 508 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:12,640 Speaker 6: of the ownership stake and that crucial control over the algorithm. 509 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,719 Speaker 6: And if Trump is willing to allow that, which you know, 510 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,880 Speaker 6: as I said before, feels like it defeats the whole purpose, 511 00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 6: then the Chinese government, I think, is going to come 512 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:23,840 Speaker 6: out of this feeling like it had a minor win. 513 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 7: Well. 514 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 3: Also, I mean, maybe it could be part of a 515 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:32,200 Speaker 3: bargaining chip in like renegotiating. 516 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 4: Some of these tariffs on China. 517 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:34,119 Speaker 3: I mean, would you have to pay a tariff if 518 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 3: you bought TikTok, because really expensive. But maybe, I mean, 519 00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 3: I don't know, could this be a bargaining chip in 520 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 3: a larger conversation. 521 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 2: I mean, I think for sure, right, like, TikTok is 522 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,119 Speaker 2: a major asset. It's not only valuable in the sense 523 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,760 Speaker 2: that like it's a lot of money and those are 524 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:50,440 Speaker 2: jobs and so. 525 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,240 Speaker 1: On, but valuable in a kind of cultural sense. 526 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is like a really important Chinese cultural export, 527 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,199 Speaker 2: which is of course part of the reason why a 528 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 2: lot of conservatives and even Donald Trump, you know, back 529 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 2: many years ago, forced this conversation in the first place. 530 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:09,280 Speaker 2: I mean, the weirdest thing about this story is Trump 531 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:13,479 Speaker 2: suggested banning TikTok. Biden went ahead and did it. And 532 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:18,479 Speaker 2: then Trump, probably not entirely coincidentally, after receiving a massive 533 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 2: donation from a TikTok investor, just totally changed his position. 534 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,400 Speaker 3: Well, he also got an account and the account did 535 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,480 Speaker 3: really well, and I think that actually may have tipped 536 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 3: the scale too. He mentioned it like explicitly a couple 537 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:36,679 Speaker 3: of times. Yeah, you get that little dopamine hit. 538 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:37,520 Speaker 4: It's hard to say no. 539 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,400 Speaker 5: Actually, zone. 540 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 2: Zone. All right, let's move on to our final segment. Brad, 541 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 2: we're gonna have you stick around for this. This is 542 00:26:56,760 --> 00:27:00,560 Speaker 2: where Stacy or I will find an underrate story of 543 00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:02,879 Speaker 2: the week and present it to the others. And I 544 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,439 Speaker 2: want to start with, you know, just a great moment 545 00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:07,679 Speaker 2: in television history. 546 00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 1: Let's give a listen, guys kidding, it's not about muscle. 547 00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,880 Speaker 2: In simple physics, calculate the velocity V in relation to the. 548 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:21,280 Speaker 3: Trajectory T in which G gravity of course remains a constant. 549 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 1: It's not complicated. Stacy, had you seen that one? 550 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:34,159 Speaker 3: I mean this is from Seinfeld, clearly George Costanza giving Baseball. 551 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 2: Lessons, Season eight, episode nine of Seinfeld the Abstinence, to 552 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:40,359 Speaker 2: be specific. 553 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:41,680 Speaker 5: He works for the Yankees. 554 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 1: You remember that the plot of this episode. 555 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,240 Speaker 2: I'll just to refresher memory. I'm sure it'll come back 556 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,439 Speaker 2: to you in a second. But George stops having sex 557 00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 2: and becomes a genius. And among the genius discoverers he 558 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:56,280 Speaker 2: has is he figures out the physics of home runs 559 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:59,920 Speaker 2: and is in the scene teaching Yankee Grades, Derek Jeter, 560 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,080 Speaker 2: and Bernie Williams how to hit a. 561 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,879 Speaker 1: Baseball how to hit a baseball. So I'm bringing this 562 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:05,880 Speaker 1: up because. 563 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:07,240 Speaker 4: That's a little old for an underreait. 564 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 1: This is happening right now in real life. Torpedo bats. 565 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:16,040 Speaker 2: These are a new invention on innovation in the world 566 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:20,159 Speaker 2: of baseball. This is a bat where the barrel is 567 00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 2: like sort of closer to the handle. It was invented 568 00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:28,760 Speaker 2: by a sort of obscure coach on the Miami Marlins, 569 00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:31,680 Speaker 2: an MIT physicist. So we got the physics in there, 570 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,879 Speaker 2: and he hired an MIT physicist. The baseball team did yes. 571 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 2: His career trajectory is just frankly amazing. He was an 572 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:42,640 Speaker 2: MIT physics PhD. He worked as a minor league coach 573 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,800 Speaker 2: for a while in the Atlantic League, community college coach, 574 00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 2: and then he hits it big in the majors and 575 00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 2: he invents the torpedo bat and these things. Brad, I'm 576 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:54,520 Speaker 2: sure you're aware of this because you're a baseball fan. 577 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,520 Speaker 2: It's like some people believe this is like breaking the 578 00:28:57,520 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 2: game of baseball. This is the world will never be 579 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 2: the same. 580 00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,240 Speaker 6: I don't think it will break the game of baseball, 581 00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,320 Speaker 6: because I think the game of baseball is already broken. 582 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:08,360 Speaker 5: I'm really bummed. 583 00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:12,880 Speaker 6: I feel like this season, I mean there's there's almost, 584 00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,480 Speaker 6: to my mind, no drama. I mean, the competitive balance 585 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,720 Speaker 6: has never been more lopsided. The Dodgers are going to 586 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,680 Speaker 6: win the World Series again. The formerly Oakland A's are 587 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:25,520 Speaker 6: playing in like a stadium in West Sacramento, not even 588 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 6: Sacramento Sacramento, but occupied by a team called the river Cats. 589 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,520 Speaker 4: By the way, because emotionally. 590 00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 6: And my team is the Cleveland Guardians. They're off to 591 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:43,560 Speaker 6: a terrible start. But more importantly, you can't watch the 592 00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:47,120 Speaker 6: games on TV, like baseball's lost all its TV contracts. 593 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:49,800 Speaker 6: Oh and by the way, the league's probably going to 594 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:51,120 Speaker 6: strike again next year. 595 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,120 Speaker 5: Right. They've never been able to figure. 596 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:56,200 Speaker 6: Out things like a salary cap and so yeah, torpedo 597 00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:59,600 Speaker 6: bats again. It's like some teams hacking the game and 598 00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:04,600 Speaker 6: to me more evidence that than maybe Ma's Opening Day. 599 00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:09,400 Speaker 8: Everybody ano they're great spring and major League baseball, but 600 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,520 Speaker 8: I just feel like, you know, particularly compared to basketball, 601 00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:18,160 Speaker 8: the NBA and the NFL, major League baseball has lost 602 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:18,640 Speaker 8: its way. 603 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:22,040 Speaker 3: Okay, maybe the torpedo bat is the moment that turns 604 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,200 Speaker 3: it all around and brings people back to the great 605 00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:25,120 Speaker 3: sport of baseball. 606 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:26,080 Speaker 1: I'm with you, Stacy. 607 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:29,200 Speaker 2: This is great news, a great innovation. Like I said, 608 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 2: dreams can come true. You can be an MIT physicist 609 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 2: and get a job as an assistant coach for one 610 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,200 Speaker 2: of the worst teams in baseball. But I do think, 611 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,680 Speaker 2: like I think, this is very exciting. I love the story. 612 00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,240 Speaker 2: I love the fact that the Yankees. I'm not a 613 00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:45,840 Speaker 2: Yankees fan a Mets fan, but they hit like nine 614 00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 2: home runs when they were using these bats. 615 00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:49,680 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, what do the bats do that's so special? Like, 616 00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:52,000 Speaker 3: why are they better than a regular bat? I mean 617 00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:53,520 Speaker 3: they looking at them, they're. 618 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,840 Speaker 1: It's so stupid. It's like as stupid as George Cassandra. 619 00:30:56,000 --> 00:31:00,200 Speaker 2: Basically, the ball hits closer to your hands, so why 620 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 2: not put the big part of the. 621 00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 1: Bat closer to your hands. That's it. That's it. 622 00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:08,240 Speaker 6: Yeah, it's physics, that's what that's what an MIT degree. 623 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,160 Speaker 2: So these bats you can buy them now, the Torpedo 624 00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:14,920 Speaker 2: Pro Reserve. You can buy these for two hundred nine dollars. 625 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,480 Speaker 2: And the best part of all Stacy made right here. 626 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,680 Speaker 2: No tariffs, No tariffs all right. 627 00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:24,320 Speaker 1: Brad Stone, thanks for being here. 628 00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:31,520 Speaker 5: Thank you guys. 629 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:34,480 Speaker 4: The show was produced by Stacy Wong. 630 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:38,280 Speaker 3: Magnus Hendrickson is our supervising producer, Amy Kean is our editor, 631 00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,960 Speaker 3: and Brendan Francis Newnham is our executive producer. 632 00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:43,440 Speaker 4: Sage Bauman heads Bloomberg Podcasts. 633 00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,160 Speaker 3: And if you have a story that you think should 634 00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:50,000 Speaker 3: be our business, send us an email. It's at everybody's 635 00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:54,360 Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot net. That's everybody's without an apostrophe, everybody's 636 00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,840 Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot net. And if there's something that you 637 00:31:57,880 --> 00:31:59,960 Speaker 3: buy that you're worried that tariffs are going to affect, 638 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:01,600 Speaker 3: we definitely want to hear from you. Send us an 639 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 3: email or a voice memo. We would love to know 640 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,880 Speaker 3: what's on your mind. Thank you for listening. See you 641 00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 3: next week.