1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. 2 00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas Viola, and today's topic is bad beats. 3 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:10,799 Speaker 1: We've all had them, we've all seen them, we've all 4 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 1: seen some tragic ones, and here to join me to 5 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 1: talk about it today. Returning to the show, our first 6 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:19,920 Speaker 1: return guest here none other than the bad beat expert 7 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 1: and BTS super fan, Aaron Kessler. Aaron, in twenty plus 8 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 1: years in sports books, you have certainly seen your share 9 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 1: of bad beats, and honestly, as a friend, I don't 10 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:34,559 Speaker 1: think I've seen anyone who quite comes close to what 11 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:36,200 Speaker 1: you have seen in the bad beats here. 12 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:39,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, there've been a couple. But when you've been betting 13 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 2: sports as long as I have, you know, I turned 14 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:46,200 Speaker 2: twenty one nineteen years ago, so it's a long time. 15 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 2: We've not going to say quite how many years. There 16 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 2: are some jurisdictional issues at play here, but yeah, I've 17 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 2: seen my share of bad beats, and I've lost some 18 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 2: games in some interesting. 19 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 1: Ways, and we're going to get into some of them. Certainly, 20 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: there have been a couple in the last few months 21 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 1: that are quite memorable that we'll get into, and we'll 22 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: get into some of the worst bad beats that we've 23 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 1: ever seen in the history of sports, and some that 24 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 1: you've seen personally in your career. But first and foremost, 25 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 1: we have to address the full topic what exactly makes 26 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 1: something a bad beat, or rather what isn't a bad beat, 27 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: because the term gets thrown around so much, and the 28 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,759 Speaker 1: reality is a lot of the time better's just lost. 29 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 1: You didn't necessarily lose in such a painful and heartbreaking 30 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,559 Speaker 1: way that would make something a bad beat. How would 31 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:31,399 Speaker 1: you classify it? 32 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, bad beat is when something just really goes weird, 33 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 2: and it's kind of a sliding scale. You know, it's 34 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 2: different for everybody, but you know, someone's like, oh, you know, 35 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 2: my team was winning by four points, that I had 36 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 2: the money line, there were the underdog, and then the 37 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 2: other team came back and scored a touchdown. It was 38 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 2: a three minute drive. It's like, yeah, the other team 39 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 2: did what they were supposed to do. It was a 40 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 2: three minute drive. It's not a bad beat. Nothing went weird. 41 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 2: It just sucks. And some of the ones that we'll 42 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 2: talk about today, they were a lot more in that vein. 43 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 2: They weren't like a true bad beat, but they were 44 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 2: painful for some circumstances around them. 45 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, it can. Is it just that it's a painful 46 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 1: and excruciating loss, or is it that there has to 47 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 1: be that special twist of the knife or is it 48 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 1: like you said it, I feel like it's more, it's 49 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:22,919 Speaker 1: got to be a quirk. It's something has to be weird, 50 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 1: something has to have happened that in the course of 51 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,799 Speaker 1: a normal sporting event, even a comeback, you would not 52 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: see happen. So it's like a two goals and two 53 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: minutes in hockey not necessarily a bad beat. I don't know. 54 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 1: The Golden Knights played the Sharks of the game we 55 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 1: were at this year, they were up by what was 56 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 1: it two goals or three goal It was three goals 57 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 1: with three minutes to go two a two goals with 58 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 1: three to go. We watched. We watched them lose in 59 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: overtime after a last literal, last second, last tenth of 60 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:58,799 Speaker 1: a second goal by the Sharks to four SOT. Does 61 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 1: that even qualify as a beat or is that still 62 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 1: just well you lost a pretty big comeback. Yeah. 63 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 2: I'm a sport like hockey, where it's not stop and 64 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 2: start between plays. If you're getting a goal in the 65 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 2: net in the last second of the game. I think 66 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 2: that's a bad beat, no matter what. 67 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 1: I think that's benda. What are some things that you 68 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:16,799 Speaker 1: would say aren't bad beats? 69 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 2: Though, well, it's really hard to say it. Like just 70 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:24,639 Speaker 2: last year's Super Bowl. Was it frustrating yet did the 71 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 2: Bengals get jobbed? I certainly think so, but I wouldn't 72 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 2: describe it as a bad beat. You know, that wasn't 73 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 2: a game where everything turned. That penalty the end against 74 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 2: the Bengals was brutal, and I don't think it should 75 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 2: have been called, but I wouldn't describe that as a 76 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 2: bad beat necessarily. Then again, if you had Bengals futures 77 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 2: at one hundred and fifty to one from the beginning 78 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 2: of the season, I can definitely see how it would 79 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 2: be a bad beat. There's some context to this. 80 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 1: And what about what about flipping that call? If you 81 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 1: take the famous Saints Rams game from a few years ago, 82 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: the pass interference non call that was so egregious it 83 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 1: makes it a bad beat in my opinion. 84 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 2: I would say so. I don't know anyone who was 85 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 2: watching that game that still isn't waiting for the flag 86 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 2: to come out. 87 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: Very true now, You've had a couple, in particular, a 88 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 1: couple big heartbreakers recently. Let's get into some of those. 89 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 1: One of them the NCAA Tournament this year, although really 90 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:22,039 Speaker 1: you have some stories for many NCAA tournaments that we'll 91 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 1: talk about, but this year in particular hurt quite a bit. 92 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 1: You had a ticket on UNC at a rather nice price, 93 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:28,919 Speaker 1: didn't you. 94 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 2: Yeah. I was holding one hundred and seventy five to 95 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 2: one at them at the beginning of the tournament. I 96 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:35,040 Speaker 2: thought that their brackets shook out well. They could be 97 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 2: that one seat in Baylor that I wasn't that confident in, 98 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 2: and I felt that this was a team that had 99 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:42,480 Speaker 2: a lot of talent, was playing their best basketball. I 100 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:44,280 Speaker 2: thought the price was definitely very wrong on. 101 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:47,840 Speaker 1: Them, and sure enough, you were. You could really argue 102 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:49,600 Speaker 1: you were very right on that they make it all 103 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 1: the way to the final, of course, and we were 104 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:55,599 Speaker 1: watching that game together and at halftime things certainly felt 105 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,360 Speaker 1: pretty good. There was another UNC supporter with us who 106 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 1: was already ordering up some rounds of shots for celebrations. 107 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:07,280 Speaker 1: They were up fifteen, and just the fact that no 108 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 1: team has ever lost that kind of a lead, I 109 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: feel like that definitely qualifies as a bad beat. 110 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, that was very painful. I blame tequila anytime tequila 111 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 2: comes out and nothing good can happen. But I was 112 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 2: not about to turn down a shot offered to me 113 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 2: and we were up fifteenth the half. You know, you're 114 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 2: in running money lines going to be like minus five hundred. 115 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:29,119 Speaker 2: Could I have gotten off of it? Absolutely? I didn't 116 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 2: want to get off of it. I liked my position. 117 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 2: You know, we talk about hedging, and you were very 118 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 2: vocal before the game telling me to hedge, and I'm 119 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:39,919 Speaker 2: very much a person who doesn't like to hedge. But 120 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 2: had the price been what I thought it should have 121 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 2: been on the game, I would have hedged. As it stands, 122 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 2: the game was minus four minus one eighty on the 123 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 2: money line. I made Kansas a two point favorites, and 124 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 2: if I could have gotten minus one thirty pre game 125 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 2: on Kansas, I would have absolutely hedged a bit because 126 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 2: I thought that would have been a fair price to hedgeats. 127 00:05:58,279 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 2: I wasn't going to lay a buck eighty on a 128 00:05:59,920 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 2: team that I didn't think should be at one to eighty. Yeah, 129 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 2: that's an important part of hedging is you need to 130 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:09,720 Speaker 2: make good value bets and decide, yeah, I might want 131 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 2: to get off this some but I'm not going to 132 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 2: get off it at the wrong price. 133 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:16,840 Speaker 1: And let's talk a little bit about that, because that 134 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 1: is definitely something that comes into maybe not bad beats, 135 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:24,799 Speaker 1: but losing bets as a whole. If you have a chance, 136 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:26,720 Speaker 1: you have something, like you said, at one hundred and 137 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:29,239 Speaker 1: seventy five to one ticket or at the very least 138 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 1: you've set up a parlay, you have a nice futures bet, 139 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: but you are in a position where you could lock 140 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 1: in a profit. You get yourself into a position that 141 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 1: you've made it so you have a potential for a 142 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 1: substantial windfall. Like a couple of weeks ago, I was 143 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: riding a very nice parlay on Real Madrid and I 144 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:48,920 Speaker 1: thought about hedging. I didn't end up doing it because, 145 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:51,479 Speaker 1: like you said, the price just wasn't quite there. But 146 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 1: how can you spot some of that value so that 147 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 1: players maybe who just want to be able to avoid 148 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:00,359 Speaker 1: or maximize a profit. What are some of the ways 149 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:02,919 Speaker 1: that you like to look at it of trying to 150 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 1: build some of these hedges. 151 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 2: Well, this is one thing where you know people who 152 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 2: make these parlays. You've got a sixteen parlay, you've got 153 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 2: your last leg coming up, like, oh, should I head? 154 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 2: Should I hedge? I'm like, look, if you wanted a hedge, 155 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 2: why'd you put it on there to start with? Have 156 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 2: some convictions, keep your bet. You don't want to hedge, 157 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 2: you don't want to get off it, you know, if 158 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 2: you want to buy a little bit back, or try 159 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 2: and shoot a middle, that's something I've definitely tried to 160 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 2: shoot some middles before with tickets, but I'm not a hedger. 161 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 2: I try not to. And if I can shoot a middle, 162 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 2: sometimes I will. But generally I like to ride my 163 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 2: bets out and if I'm in an advanced ageous position, 164 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 2: then I'm going to ride that position out. Sometimes I win, 165 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 2: sometimes I'll lose, but I'm going to ride it out. 166 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 1: And of course, one great way to guarantee that you 167 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 1: don't end up with five legs of a six like 168 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 1: parlay is to you know, not make a six like parlay. 169 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 2: Sometimes you got twenty bucks on your board, what can 170 00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 2: I tell you? We've all. 171 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 1: That's very fair. Twenty bucks on your board is one thing, 172 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: but obviously people want to understand those aren't necessarily long 173 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 1: term money making opportunities there with parlays of bad size. 174 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 1: But still you talk about finding a middle, You talk 175 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 1: about shooting a middle. For some people that maybe aren't 176 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: too familiar, what is middling and how is it that 177 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 1: you can try and set one up? 178 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 2: Simple? A middle is a bet where you have two 179 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 2: sides of the same game and there is an area 180 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 2: where both can hit. So if you have a money 181 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 2: line and then a plus three and a half on 182 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 2: the other team, if they win by one, two or three, 183 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 2: then you hit them both and you can set up 184 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 2: middles like that. With live betting. You know, there's a 185 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 2: lot of ways to set up middles, But you know, again, 186 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 2: why put it on the first place? And why get 187 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 2: off a good position? You know, if you're in a 188 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 2: position of strength, if your team's winning by fifteen points 189 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 2: at the half, why do you want to get off that? No, sure, 190 00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 2: there's a little more security, but hey, what you think 191 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 2: it's worth? And if you don't think it's worth it, 192 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 2: don't feel the compulsion to hedge. You know a lot 193 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 2: of people love to hedge. I've got a story about 194 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 2: a buddy of mine you've met a couple of weeks ago. 195 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 2: He bet a golf tournament. Who was it that came back, 196 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:15,960 Speaker 2: and one guy came from out of the clouds. It 197 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 2: was like two three weeks ago, and my buddy live 198 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 2: bets him at like two hundred and ten to one. 199 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 2: I see him at work on Monday, says, I took 200 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 2: a bad beat this weekend. I I bet this guy 201 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:30,719 Speaker 2: and I cashed him out when he was thirty to one. 202 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, and this guy loves hedging, loves to hedge, 203 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 2: loves talking about hedge scenarios. It's his favorite thing. I'm like, Oh, 204 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:43,320 Speaker 2: this is why you don't hedge. You just cost yourself 205 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:45,080 Speaker 2: like a four thousand dollars. 206 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 1: Oh, that that is brun. Are you talking about the 207 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:49,720 Speaker 1: US Open at Southern Hills. 208 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 2: No, I don't remember which tournament it was. Was wherever 209 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 2: the guy came back on the last day. I don't 210 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 2: remember which one it was. 211 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 1: The Southern Hills. I had pretty much a similar situation. 212 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 1: And that was one thousand percent one of the worst 213 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 1: bad beats that we've seen this year that we definitely 214 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 1: wanted to hit on. Because you had Meto Pereira, who 215 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: was three hundred to one to win the US Open, 216 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:15,680 Speaker 1: and our friend, our friend Rufus Peabody was talking about 217 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: that because he had him to win a substantial amount 218 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:21,680 Speaker 1: of money, a good chunk of change there, and he 219 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:24,960 Speaker 1: goes into the eighteenth toll needing a bogie or better 220 00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 1: better par wins the tournament. Bogee forces the playoff and 221 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:33,079 Speaker 1: he double bogey's eighteen in one of the most heartbreaking 222 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 1: scenes that we've ever seen. That was a thousand percent 223 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: of bad beat for Mito Pereira. Holders. 224 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 2: That's a bad one. Those guys have some golf stories 225 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:46,320 Speaker 2: that they are, some fantastic stories. I've seen quite a 226 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 2: few of them. But golf's a game like that. There's 227 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 2: no clock in golf, there's no clock in baseball. Things 228 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:54,080 Speaker 2: can happen, guys, real quick. 229 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,960 Speaker 1: Remember when you're looking for free picks and sports betting advice, 230 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com has you covered with tips from over 231 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:02,480 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty experts to make it easy for 232 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 1: you to cash out. Download the app to get sports 233 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 1: betting alerts. You'll get notified a favorable bets based online movements, 234 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 1: consensus picks from the most accurate experts and vetted systems 235 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 1: in play. Betting Pros monitors all of the major sports books, 236 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:19,440 Speaker 1: most accurate experts and top systems to identify the best 237 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 1: betting opportunities. So download today in the Apple or Google 238 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:28,320 Speaker 1: Play stores. That is very true. Things can happen, and 239 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 1: you know, we had one happen this weekend at the 240 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 1: Canadian Open. The Betting pros Discord community here has a 241 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:37,480 Speaker 1: very nice golf discord and by the way, guys, if 242 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 1: you're not involved yet, sign up today hop into the 243 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 1: Betting pros Discord. It's a great community there. And the 244 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 1: golf team they basically do what's called a group ride 245 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 1: where you know, everybody picks one bet that they're gonna ride. Well, 246 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 1: the golfers managed to pick four out of the five 247 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,840 Speaker 1: top five finishers in this week's RBC Canadian Open. The 248 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:00,440 Speaker 1: one they didn't get Rory mcclroy winner. 249 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,439 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean to swing it. Back to college basketball 250 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, I had triple digit odds in one region 251 00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 2: on the one seed, the two seed, the three seed, 252 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 2: the sixth seed, the eight seed, and the nine seed, 253 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:21,680 Speaker 2: and the four and five both got upset right away, 254 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 2: and the winner of that bracket was the eleven seed Loyola. 255 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 2: That was the year of Virginia lost. I had Virginia 256 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 2: at one hundred to one, just absolutely brutal. 257 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:33,959 Speaker 1: But that wasn't just you see that's a bad beat too, 258 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:38,680 Speaker 1: because that's not a team losing. That was the UMBC 259 00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 1: year where you saw the sixteen to one happen. That 260 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: is a thousand percent of bad beat in my eyes. 261 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 2: I've never had so many people asking me if I 262 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 2: was okay during a game. I was booking the tournament. 263 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:52,720 Speaker 2: I was locked up in my office and all my 264 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 2: friends were calling me, like, are you all right? Do 265 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 2: you need something? 266 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 1: And the bad beat parade doesn't end there for you, 267 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 1: and I feel bad. He's half this podcast is just me. 268 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 2: Beating over the head there for me and Virginia. 269 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 1: It doesn't because the very next year they go on 270 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 1: to win the tournament. 271 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:13,439 Speaker 2: You don't have them, No, But I did have Texas 272 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 2: Tech at two hundred to one with a fifteen second 273 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:17,719 Speaker 2: with fifteen seconds left in the game, in a three 274 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 2: point lead. 275 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 1: Yep, that's that's a lot of f one. 276 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 2: I hedged off of small amounts before the game. I 277 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:28,079 Speaker 2: took Virginia even money. I didn't bet a lot on it, 278 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:31,960 Speaker 2: but that was a rough way to lose, you know, 279 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,839 Speaker 2: I was a nice payday. Was one misshot away. 280 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,439 Speaker 1: I mean, it always hurts that out. That's how it feels. 281 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 1: It always is. And then a couple months later, a 282 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 1: couple months later, after the NCAA tournament this year, not 283 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 1: even it was a couple of weeks Bristol Dirt Track 284 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:52,360 Speaker 1: and Tyler Reddick. You actually had in what another amazing 285 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 1: sports bad beat here. He was in the lead on 286 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 1: the final app when Chase Briscoe Krene's into him, takes 287 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 1: out both drivers, and Kyle Busch comes back to win it. 288 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:05,440 Speaker 1: And I remember that one particularly stung just because of 289 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 1: the back to backs, but that was definitely another bad 290 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: beat from this patro from the most recent of sporting events. 291 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 2: I would like to point out that he was in 292 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 2: the lead on the final lap and the lap before that, 293 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:17,320 Speaker 2: and the lap before that, and we can say that 294 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 2: literally one hundred more times than it would still be 295 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 2: true because he led the last one hundred plus laps. 296 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 2: That was not my worst speed in NASCAR, I will 297 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 2: tell you Nascar, I've had some really bad ones. I 298 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:29,440 Speaker 2: had Almola the year he got wiped up by Austin 299 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 2: Dillon at Daytona. I was a year early on Michael 300 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 2: McDowell when he was restarting second. At the end of 301 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 2: Daytona again, I had him at two hundred to one, 302 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 2: so that was lovely. The worst one wasn't even a 303 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:43,440 Speaker 2: big price, so you know, this one's just memorable. It 304 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 2: was not for a whole bunch of money. I had 305 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 2: Kyle Larson at Dover and he is leading with three 306 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 2: laps left. By a straightaway, He's got like three seconds 307 00:14:56,960 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 2: on Jimmy Johnson. He's clear and with one lap another 308 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 2: with the white flagons then there's no caution. With two 309 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 2: laps left, David Reagan in the back of the pack 310 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 2: hits the wall and brings out the caution. They bring 311 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 2: out the easy dry to dry the track off. They 312 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 2: go to the restart. Larson spins his wheels on the 313 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 2: easy dry, Jimmy Johnson takes off and beats him. Oh 314 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 2: and I had gone like one in ten in baseball 315 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 2: that day, and I'm just not having a lot of 316 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 2: fun right then. And that's a bad beat. 317 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 1: And you know another big thing there, how do you 318 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 1: with bad beats are going to happen? They're kind of unavoidable. 319 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 1: It is just like we said, it is flukes. It 320 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 1: is stuff that you are going to see over the 321 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 1: course of your betting career. A loss like that can 322 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 1: be crushing, especially when tumming off a bad day or 323 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 1: another seemingly bad beat. How do you bounce back from 324 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 1: that song from that as a better And I would 325 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 1: say the most important thing that that is not going 326 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 1: on tilt. 327 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 2: Well, I was gonna say, I usually just drink heavily. 328 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: Probably not something that we want to recommend. I'm not pro. 329 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: I'm not pro heavy drinking to numb that pain. 330 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 2: Although look there, don't drink heavily. Whatever you do, don't 331 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 2: do that. 332 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 1: But one of the things that a lot of betters 333 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 1: can do is they end up going on tilt. And 334 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 1: when you go on tilt, you start firing off on 335 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 1: a bunch of irresponsible bets. It's much better. And you 336 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 1: did it after you did it after the Risco incident. 337 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 1: You just stop betting for a month. 338 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, said I was not going to bet for a month. 339 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 2: I for the most part did not, And yeah, I 340 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 2: needed some time off. I was just sick of it. 341 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 2: You know, I try not to support problem gambling, but 342 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 2: you know, you've got those pamphlets to say when the 343 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 2: fun stops, and I wasn't having fun. I'm not a 344 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 2: professional better, I'm a recreational player. I like to think 345 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:56,880 Speaker 2: I'm sharper than the average bear. You know, I have 346 00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:00,080 Speaker 2: my ups and downs, but I wasn't having fun and 347 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 2: just you get kicked enough times, you just got to 348 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,640 Speaker 2: step out for a second. You don't you don't need 349 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 2: to quit if you and absolutely, if you have a 350 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:11,119 Speaker 2: legitimate problem and you need to quit, you should. I 351 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:14,119 Speaker 2: support responsible gaming. I think that's very important. If you 352 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 2: are not able to stop gambling, that is exactly when 353 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 2: you need to stop gambling. But now if you just 354 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:22,639 Speaker 2: need to step away for a while, you don't have 355 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 2: to make it a lifetime thing. Well, if you have 356 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 2: the ability to step away and come back later once 357 00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 2: you clear your head, that's a great thing to. 358 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:33,120 Speaker 1: Do, exactly, And I mean it worked for you and 359 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 1: you ended up in It also helps when you come 360 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:36,679 Speaker 1: back and you go on a nice little run like 361 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 1: you did. 362 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I went on a bit of a tear. These 363 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 2: things happen, yeah, I mean, but letting me bet against 364 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 2: the maple leaves and deciding games and yeah, we'll be 365 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 2: just fine. That's what brought me back. I was going 366 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,480 Speaker 2: to wait till June first, but wait, the maple leafs 367 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 2: are playing a game seven. I can't miss this. 368 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 1: I jumped in on that one too. You some opportunities 369 00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 1: you just have to take, but sometimes you will also 370 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 1: do just have to step away. That can be one 371 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 1: of the best things that you can do after a 372 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 1: crushing defeat, because, like you said, the most important thing 373 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 1: here is what ninety nine point nine to nine percent 374 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:12,400 Speaker 1: of us are not going to be professional betters. That's 375 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 1: not going to be our livelihood. Take a step back. 376 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 1: Remember this is recreational. It's supposed to be fun. You're 377 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:18,320 Speaker 1: supposed to enjoy it. 378 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 2: And is fun, isn't it? 379 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:23,360 Speaker 1: It is? This is I mean, it is the downs. 380 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 1: It is the dark side of our industry. It's the 381 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 1: dark side of what we're doing here. Is that you 382 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: can get in over your head. And you know that's 383 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 1: one thing that we're always going to mention, especially on 384 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 1: this show. Bet what you can afford. That is the 385 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,240 Speaker 1: best way that you can mitigate losses from bad beats. 386 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 1: Never bet over your head. People can sometimes forget that. 387 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:44,719 Speaker 2: And you know, if bad beats can teach us anything 388 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:46,640 Speaker 2: is that there's no such thing as a sure thing. 389 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,119 Speaker 2: You can lose in the wildest ways. Possible. I was 390 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:53,480 Speaker 2: at the Aces game on some buddies last weekend and 391 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:57,239 Speaker 2: Aces are up two with the half. They're all on 392 00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 2: Dallas because there are a bunch of disloyal guys. I 393 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 2: love my girls, so I'm like, oh, second half, Aces 394 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:06,880 Speaker 2: minus four, I would have made it five. I'm gonna 395 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 2: lay the four. So you might have seen this one 396 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 2: last Monday was number one on ESPN's Bad Beats and 397 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,680 Speaker 2: Aces are up nine fifteen seconds left. Dallas has the ball, 398 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:23,120 Speaker 2: they drive for a layup, they miss rebound, they miss 399 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,360 Speaker 2: that tip, rebound again, they miss the tip. They get 400 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 2: another rebound, kick it out open shooter on the wing 401 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 2: and she drains it as time expires. I push my 402 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:33,800 Speaker 2: friends all win. There are a bunch of jerks and 403 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:34,880 Speaker 2: I hate them. 404 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 1: Want to track all of your wagers in one place, 405 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 1: check out the Betting prospicktracker at bettingpros dot com slash 406 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 1: pick tracking. It syncs up with your sports books to 407 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,720 Speaker 1: tally which picks hit, which miss, and gives you a 408 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 1: live look at what the public is doing, so you 409 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 1: can use real time tracking to determine which place to 410 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: make and which to fade. Get on the leaderboard and 411 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 1: quickly become a sharp by using the free advice we 412 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 1: offer a bettingpros dot com slash picktracking. But what do 413 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 1: you think is the worst bad beat you've ever seen 414 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 1: in your career? 415 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,920 Speaker 2: Who's behind the counter for eighteen years and the worst 416 00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 2: one I ever saw was in my first year and 417 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,640 Speaker 2: no one ever topped it. I was a ticket rid 418 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 2: at the Excalibur, would have been October November of three, 419 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 2: and guy comes up with a parlay card and says, 420 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 2: can you check this for me? And I look at it. 421 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 2: He's got an eight team or fifty dollars twin seven thousand. 422 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,120 Speaker 2: If you're out there, I'm just really sorry to recount 423 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 2: this for you. But he's got a fifty dollars parlay 424 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 2: card to win seven thousand, seven winners. Last game is 425 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 2: Washington State minus seven and a half. And I was 426 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 2: watching this game because I had Oregon State plus seven 427 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 2: and a half. Washington State is up eight, it's fourth down, 428 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 2: there's four seconds left and they're deepen their own territory 429 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 2: and they take the intentional safety win by six Oregon 430 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 2: State cards. This guy gets beat out of seven grand 431 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,640 Speaker 2: on an intentional safety. It was unreal. 432 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 1: That's painful. That right there is painful. 433 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:03,640 Speaker 2: I think that is a special thing. 434 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,400 Speaker 1: Another one for sure. I mean what I called Super 435 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 1: Bowl fifty one a pretty bad beat. If you had 436 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 1: Falcons four and a half, Yeah. 437 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 2: That was definitely a rough one, and a lot of 438 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:20,400 Speaker 2: people did. But yeah, anytime you're within one score, it can. 439 00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:23,919 Speaker 1: Only be so bad that that is true, but that 440 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,480 Speaker 1: that game was just absolutely wild. I very much wish 441 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: that I was betting at the time. I was in 442 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 1: California and I was also I don't I don't know 443 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 1: if I was. I think I was twenty one. It 444 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 1: doesn't matter, but it was. It was halftime of that 445 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 1: game and we were all watching it, and my dad's 446 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,680 Speaker 1: friend just said, wow, I've never seen the Patriots lose 447 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,160 Speaker 1: like this, and I go, it's halftime. Billy V's got 448 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,199 Speaker 1: him right where he wants him. And sure enough they 449 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 1: came back and that guy was like twenty eight to three. Yeah, 450 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 1: oh no, it it wasn't even twenty eight to three 451 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 1: at that point. They went up further in the third quarter. 452 00:21:58,359 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 2: Oh, I know, I just wanted to throw a twenty 453 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:00,920 Speaker 2: eight to three in there. I like to tweak the 454 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:01,879 Speaker 2: Atlanta fans. 455 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 1: Those poor Atlanta fans. They have suffered enough. But what 456 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,120 Speaker 1: do you think let's round it off with one more 457 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 1: bad beat? Here, what's something else that you can remember 458 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 1: from the history of sports? 459 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 2: You know, I'll tell you my worst one hasn't happened yet. 460 00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:18,119 Speaker 2: I don't know what's gonna be, and it's gonna have 461 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,680 Speaker 2: to be a real special one, but it hasn't happened yet. 462 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:22,640 Speaker 2: One of the worst ones I've ever seen. I had 463 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 2: a ticket writer who worked for me, and he bets 464 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:29,680 Speaker 2: an eight game baseball parlay. This kid would make unreasonable 465 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:31,920 Speaker 2: eighteen parlays as soon as he got paid every week. 466 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:36,160 Speaker 2: It was not good life choices, but he bets one. 467 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,200 Speaker 2: And the only loser on that ticket was the Brooks 468 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 2: Conrad game when the Braves were down I believe seven 469 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 2: runs heading into the bottom of the ninth and brooks 470 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,360 Speaker 2: Conrad walked it off with a grand slam. Ooh, it 471 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:51,359 Speaker 2: was unreal. Seven for eight and that's the lowest. That's pain. 472 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:54,520 Speaker 1: You have to imagine someone had a similar ticket like 473 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 1: that on what was it the Phillies, gig no, the 474 00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 1: Mets game? Right? 475 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:01,639 Speaker 2: I mean, if you're looking to avoid bad beats, you 476 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,359 Speaker 2: should just not have the Mets in your life. 477 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, that is. Also they're talking to rob a. 478 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 2: Grand Slam single. Yeah, hit the Grand Slam in extra 479 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 2: innings and pass someone running the bass to account is 480 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,639 Speaker 2: one that stayed under was hit it and then he 481 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 2: hits what looked like a Grand Slam, but he got 482 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,359 Speaker 2: called out for passing on the bass path. Total was 483 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 2: seven and a half, game falls four to three. 484 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:28,119 Speaker 1: Oh that is. That is I would be furious if 485 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:29,400 Speaker 1: I had that bad But. 486 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 2: You got to remember if it's a double, then it's 487 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,760 Speaker 2: only four to three anyways, So that's a bad beat, 488 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:36,359 Speaker 2: but it's not the worst one ever. The one that 489 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 2: kind of drilled me nuts was everyone this year talking 490 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 2: about that Raiders Chargers typing a bad beat that was 491 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:46,200 Speaker 2: not a bad beat, such a low probability outcome, and yeah, 492 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,000 Speaker 2: and everyone say, oh, they'll play for the tie. Roder 493 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 2: Goodell had snipers. No I'm kidding. I think I'm kidding 494 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 2: Roger Goodell and they ran out offend snipers on the roof. 495 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,160 Speaker 2: But he did not want to tie there. The league 496 00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 2: didn't want to tie. The league wanted them to play 497 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:04,400 Speaker 2: it out, and I just you know, everyone's saying, oh, 498 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:05,920 Speaker 2: this is a bad beat. I get it. You made 499 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 2: this analysis that you know, if Jacksonville wins, the Raiders 500 00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 2: and Chargers will try to tie. But there's a lot 501 00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 2: at work there, and it didn't you know, the Raiders 502 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 2: were playing for something they wanted to avoid Kansas City. 503 00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 2: The Chargers couldn't lose. They had to get in somehow, 504 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:27,760 Speaker 2: and you don't you know, you don't play for the tie. 505 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 2: None of these guys made the NFL playing for ties. 506 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:33,040 Speaker 1: Yeah. It was the only time in American. 507 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,200 Speaker 2: Tea and it just tilted me a little bit. 508 00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 1: It was the only time in American sports history that 509 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 1: all of America was rooting for a tie. 510 00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 2: Thle. Yeah, that's because America doesn't like ties unlike Europe. 511 00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:46,720 Speaker 2: Let's I say, there's probably better for me. 512 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 1: But that game especially, you know, we're actually going to 513 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 1: have a deeper conversation on that on hopefully our next 514 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 1: show drop in here. ESPN's David Purdam joined me to 515 00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,120 Speaker 1: talk about that game and another game from that night 516 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 1: that was a very good beat for some betters, the 517 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 1: Draymond Green whole fiasco with him doing the ceremonial opening 518 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 1: tip off. We talk about that in Black Swan Events 519 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 1: in our next episode here on the Betting Pros podcast. 520 00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:17,919 Speaker 1: But Aaron, before we get out of here, you already 521 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,800 Speaker 1: said the number one key to avoiding bad beats is 522 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:24,240 Speaker 1: not to bet. But I want to talk about a 523 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:27,520 Speaker 1: little more setting up middles hedging and something that can 524 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 1: be a very valuable tool in a better's arsenal, and 525 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:34,359 Speaker 1: that is live betting. You obviously, you can't avoid bad 526 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 1: beats just by live betting. It doesn't do anything for 527 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 1: you creating or mitigating bad beat potential. But live betting 528 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,560 Speaker 1: can be a huge advantage to betters if they want 529 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 1: to see something in the game, really get an idea 530 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,680 Speaker 1: of what's going on, and not necessarily bet at pre flop. 531 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,239 Speaker 1: Is that something that you can kind of look at, 532 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,640 Speaker 1: especially when you come into a game with a position 533 00:25:56,720 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 1: and then say, okay, well maybe I should maybe I 534 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,199 Speaker 1: should let take a position and lay off some of 535 00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:05,920 Speaker 1: this because this game could go either way. Like, there 536 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:07,960 Speaker 1: are situations where you want to start looking at that 537 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:08,520 Speaker 1: live right. 538 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:10,919 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you always want to be aware of 539 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:16,159 Speaker 2: your options, but again, look for what the right number 540 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 2: is and consider your situation. You know what, if you 541 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 2: were going to get plus one twenty on a team 542 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 2: before the game, the hedge off, and then you're up 543 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 2: nine and you can get plus two sixty. That doesn't 544 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:29,080 Speaker 2: necessarily make it good. That just means it pays more. 545 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 2: But they're already in a worse spot. So again, consider 546 00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 2: your risk tolerance, consider what you're trying to get out 547 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,800 Speaker 2: of it. But don't just hedge because you think hedging 548 00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,720 Speaker 2: is fun or cool or what the sharps do. The 549 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,800 Speaker 2: sharps make good bets, and if they're hedging, then the 550 00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:45,800 Speaker 2: hedge is a good bet. 551 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,320 Speaker 1: So there you have it. The key to betting is 552 00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 1: to make good bets. 553 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm glad I could clear that up for you. 554 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,640 Speaker 1: And thank you so much for coming on today. Where 555 00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 1: should people find you on the social media sphere. 556 00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,679 Speaker 2: Just find me on Aaron Kessler. And if you like 557 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 2: dumb jokes about sports and other things that are sometimes 558 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,120 Speaker 2: sports and sometimes not, you should definitely stick around. Every 559 00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:10,760 Speaker 2: once in a while, I throwing some analysis. 560 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:15,159 Speaker 1: Everyone's a rare is a blue moon, but you do 561 00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:18,200 Speaker 1: once in a while have some analysis in there. And 562 00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:20,840 Speaker 1: also you know some justin Fields beets. 563 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:23,760 Speaker 2: We are big justin Fields fans here. 564 00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:27,320 Speaker 1: I do not condone that, but anyway, it is time 565 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,199 Speaker 1: for us to get out of here. Guys, thank you 566 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:33,400 Speaker 1: so much for tuning in, listening, watching, however you're getting us. 567 00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:36,920 Speaker 1: Please don't forget to like, subscribe and share with your friends. 568 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,400 Speaker 1: Hit that like button down below on the video, or 569 00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,080 Speaker 1: leave us that five star review on the podcast service 570 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 1: of your choice. We appreciate you being here with us, 571 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,159 Speaker 1: don't forget. You can check out Bettingcros dot com for 572 00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 1: all of your sports gambling needs, and as always, you 573 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,240 Speaker 1: can follow me on Twitter at TV at work, you 574 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:57,639 Speaker 1: can follow Aaron at Aaron Kessler and as always, follow 575 00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 1: at Betting Pros as well. It is. It has been 576 00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,800 Speaker 1: a pleasure and we will see you guys next episode. 577 00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:07,639 Speaker 2: H