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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcas All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go, ready the court, ten seconds remaining, so

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Speaker 1: just go show round to the basket under the basket.

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Speaker 2: It's the truth for the wind. God, I'm miracle, I'm.

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Speaker 3: Water hit that.

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Speaker 1: One from the parking lot.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. I am

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Speaker 2: Tanner McGrath. I will be your host today, filling in

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Speaker 2: for Christian for some midweek college hoops action. If you're

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Speaker 2: if I sound terrible and I look terrible, I'm sorry.

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Speaker 2: I'm snowed in up in my ski cabin in Wentworth, Nova, Scotia.

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Speaker 2: But I'm still here. I'm hiding out the basement, ready

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Speaker 2: to host this podcast and talk about some midweek college

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Speaker 2: hoops with my two guys, Michael Calabreeze and Joshua Nunn

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Speaker 2: aka Duck. Guys. How was your weekend? How's the week

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Speaker 2: of betting? Ben? What's going on?

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Speaker 3: I mean, I'll jump in here. I'm riding and diying

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Speaker 3: with Miami of Ohio. The I don't know how much

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Speaker 3: longer they can keep this up, you know, digging holes

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Speaker 3: and then coming back and winning in overtime and regulation.

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Speaker 3: Just pulse pounding endings but I will say this, we

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Speaker 3: bring this up throughout the year, and particularly when we

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Speaker 3: look at the finalized sixty eighteen bracket. There's some really

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Speaker 3: good teams that may enter March that are not battle

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Speaker 3: tested in those stressful situations, and you can see them

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Speaker 3: come undone, as Arizona did against BYU. Did they did

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Speaker 3: everything in their power to give that game to BYU

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Speaker 3: at the Marriott Center because that was really their first

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Speaker 3: sweat in two months since they played Yukon. So I

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Speaker 3: think a lot of this comes down to how you

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Speaker 3: view it. Sometimes close games are you should be blowing

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Speaker 3: out every MAC team that you play, And on paper,

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Speaker 3: that's true, that's just never going to materialize, even for

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Speaker 3: the best teams in the country. But on the other hand,

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Speaker 3: it's you know, they know exactly what they want to

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Speaker 3: do in pressure situations, they know what they want to run,

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Speaker 3: they know how to execute.

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Speaker 4: In you know, do you foul right away? Do you

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Speaker 4: go for a steal? Do you trap? Like they have

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Speaker 4: the muscle memory going forward. So I'm still looking at

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Speaker 4: a glass half full.

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Speaker 3: I really want this team to get to the finish line,

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Speaker 3: get to the MAC you know tournaments undefeated, so that

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Speaker 3: we can have that dream of two MAC teams coming into.

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Speaker 4: The field of sixty eight.

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Speaker 3: But overall, I'm really thrilled with this, you know, entire

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Speaker 3: slate of college basketball.

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Speaker 4: This week.

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Speaker 3: Everything seems to be revving up in terms of matchups.

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Speaker 3: The Big Ten in the Big Twelve was kind of

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Speaker 3: playing the shell game where the top teams were not

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Speaker 3: playing each other in the early going in the conference slate.

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Speaker 3: Now it seems like every single night there is a

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Speaker 3: top twenty five matchup that has huge implications on who

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Speaker 3: can win the regular season crown. So I'm really loving

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Speaker 3: college basketball. I know we usually rants or we have

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Speaker 3: a bone to pick with somebody, but right now I'm

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Speaker 3: feeling good. The vibes are high, at least in my household.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Miami Ohio just so connected. Their offense is so

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Speaker 2: well run. Just team basketball reminds me of Nebraska a lot,

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Speaker 2: who almost pulled off that upset at Michigan. Duck. You

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Speaker 2: got anything from the past week?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, fun week. I have been burned a little bit

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Speaker 5: by some second half scoring. We've had some bad beats

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Speaker 5: on some of the unders we've taken, but overall, pretty

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Speaker 5: decent week. And you know, I think talking about Miami

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Speaker 5: of Ohio. They're starting to feel a little pressure, right

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Speaker 5: They're undefeated, everyone's talking about them. They got a lot

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Speaker 5: of eyes on them. Wally Zerbiak came back to town.

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Speaker 5: A lot of fun stuff going on in Oxford. Very

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Speaker 5: very talented MAC team. It's them an acron I think,

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Speaker 5: is what it's going to come down to. And you

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Speaker 5: look at another team that's been really really on the

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Speaker 5: radar is Nebraska. They couldn't close it out yesterday, but

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Speaker 5: I think that the Huskers really validated their position and

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Speaker 5: there is nothing to take away from that other than

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Speaker 5: positives for what they did against Michigan. Yeah, they didn't

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Speaker 5: close the door on that one, but Nebraska proved and

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Speaker 5: validated that they can play with any team in America.

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Speaker 5: And you get the Huskers in a one game, one

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Speaker 5: and done scenario in the NCAA tournament, this is a

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Speaker 5: dangerous team.

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Speaker 2: And this is the time that starters too. They were

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Speaker 2: down two starters. Yeah, insane that they kept up. I

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Speaker 2: thought they were gonna get fown out at some point.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it wasn't fully equipped, didn't have their full arsenal players,

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Speaker 5: and with that team going in there and scoring fifty

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Speaker 5: in the first half. It was a really impressive performance

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Speaker 5: for Fred Hoiberg and his guys. So I walked away

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Speaker 5: from Nebraska feeling really confident that they have the goods

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Speaker 5: to make a deep run and to put a scare

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Speaker 5: into anybody that they play in the NCAA tournament. And

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Speaker 5: it's gonna be a real fun last seven weeks until

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Speaker 5: we get to selection Sunday.

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Speaker 3: Speaking of totals, Duck, real quick light A gambling candle

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Speaker 3: for anyone who had over in Michigan Nebraska ninety eight

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Speaker 3: first half points and somehow it didn't go over.

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Speaker 4: That's just brutal.

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Speaker 5: Well, I mean you have that.

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Speaker 2: I actually have a little piece of the under there.

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Speaker 2: I'm not even gonna lie so but sorry, Duck, you

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Speaker 2: go ahead, and.

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Speaker 5: I don't get those breaks off, and I don't get

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Speaker 5: the one where there's one hundred first half points and

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Speaker 5: then forty seven in the second half to eke under

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Speaker 5: the total.

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Speaker 4: What I get is I get.

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Speaker 5: Western Michigan and Northern Illinois, which saw eleven points in

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Speaker 5: the final sixty three seconds of a twenty three point blowout.

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Speaker 5: You have Western Michigan fouling down twenty. You've got guys

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Speaker 5: bear twenty seven foot threes, you get and one situations.

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Speaker 5: I mean, eleven points in the last sixty three seconds

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Speaker 5: of a twenty one point blowout was unreal. You have

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Speaker 5: Northeastern and Drexel scoring seventy six points in the final

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Speaker 5: ten minutes having scored on the eighty five in the

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Speaker 5: first thirty minutes prior to that.

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Speaker 2: It's it's uh.

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Speaker 5: There's a lot of land mines on the slate, and

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Speaker 5: there's a lot of high variance, high volatility in college hoops.

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Speaker 5: It's the most of all little sport that I know

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Speaker 5: of in this country that you can bet on. It's

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Speaker 5: a lot of fun, but this is going to happen

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Speaker 5: if you make three, four or five hundred plays over

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Speaker 5: the course of an entire season. So you just have

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Speaker 5: to strap in and be able to take it on

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Speaker 5: the gin every once in a while.

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Speaker 2: Last week Late night Big West Action, I had UC

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Speaker 2: San Diego U C. Davis over one fifty ninety nine

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Speaker 2: second half points to get there. It was awesome. But

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Speaker 2: let's move on to the show. So let's just start

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Speaker 2: a couple of quick you know, notes, stories, narratives, higher

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Speaker 2: level look at a trend. Let's keep it positive. I'll

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Speaker 2: start why didn't I start? Winthrop is seven and one

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Speaker 2: in the Big South, and Logan Duncan looks like a superstar.

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Speaker 2: I picked him up on my Fantasy League team that

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Speaker 2: I play with Breeze over here, and I've just been

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Speaker 2: so impressed with his start. Breeze, let's go to you.

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Speaker 2: What's your higher level trend topic?

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Speaker 3: So I'm not sure which Twitter account put this out,

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Speaker 3: but the top ten at least in the AP have

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Speaker 3: so few losses at this point in the season.

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Speaker 4: It's amazing.

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Speaker 3: I think we have like a fifty percent reduction in

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Speaker 3: losses by the top ten at this point in the

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Speaker 3: season year over year visa v where they were last year.

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Speaker 3: And I think at this point it's fair to say

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Speaker 3: it's not scheduling luck. These teams are absolutely elite. They

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Speaker 3: play great on both ends of the floor. As I

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Speaker 3: mentioned that Arizona BYU game was a great indication of

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Speaker 3: what we have to look forward to in March. Same

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Speaker 3: thing with Nebraska Michigan, and I think we can safely

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Speaker 3: say at this point, based on these teams were halfway

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Speaker 3: through the conference slate the second weekend, in the final

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Speaker 3: four of March Madness, it's going to be a fantastic,

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Speaker 3: truly amazing product. And if we can just sprinkle in

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Speaker 3: four to five, this is my preference, double digit seed

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Speaker 3: upsets on that first Thursday Friday, then I think we'll

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Speaker 3: have a perfect March madness because I think the back

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Speaker 3: end of this tournament it is going to be a

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Speaker 3: heavyweight bout. Some of these matchups that we're gonna see

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Speaker 3: in the second weekends are going to just be absolute

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Speaker 3: appointment television.

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Speaker 4: So I just want to like bring.

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Speaker 3: That positivity to the table at this point because I

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Speaker 3: think often in the show we talk about teams that

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Speaker 3: are short changed in terms of potential slotting for the

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Speaker 3: tournaments or not getting enough national respect. I think we

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Speaker 3: need to put more national respects on the top ten

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Speaker 3: the elite play being played. On top of the fact

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Speaker 3: that this is the deepest best freshman class I have

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Speaker 3: ever seen in my entire life. These guys are not

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Speaker 3: just you know, fits for the NBA. That's always the

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Speaker 3: thing that bothers me the most, where it's like this

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Speaker 3: guy clearly has the athleticism, he's a stretch for or

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Speaker 3: something like that, he'll be a better player in the NBA.

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Speaker 4: The hell with that. These guys are dogs.

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Speaker 3: Now you got you know, Illinois freshman going for forty plus,

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Speaker 3: Kingston Flemings going ballistic debansa like every single league, it

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Speaker 3: feels like as one or two electric freshmen that are

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Speaker 3: absolutely must watch television. So I'm just thrilled with the

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Speaker 3: product overall where we are in college basketball right now,

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Speaker 3: and I'm hopeful that all these teams can be a

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Speaker 3: full strength going into the tournament, because really, I think

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Speaker 3: you can make a strong argument for eight to ten

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Speaker 3: teams to win the national championship, and usually that's more,

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Speaker 3: you know, of an indication of a more of a

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Speaker 3: water down year, a wide open year. I think it's

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Speaker 3: just the fact that we're stacking all these league teams

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Speaker 3: on top of each other.

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Speaker 2: I think it's ironic that we're all kind of freaking

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Speaker 2: out about all these NBA players and G League guys

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Speaker 2: coming back to play college basketball, dispe and all that.

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Speaker 2: It's the eighteen year old like AAU kids that are

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Speaker 2: just dominating the sport right now. That tweet was from

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Speaker 2: Nick Bateman and Nick Bateman thirty three thirteen.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Well we have we have mentioned him on the

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Speaker 3: pod before. He's bringing a lot of heat.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, he's good. He's a good follow. I recommend

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Speaker 2: thirteen total losses from the ap top ten heading to wake.

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Speaker 2: Thirteen is unprecedented. Just two years ago, the top ten

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Speaker 2: in League Junior had thirty four total losses. Next little

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Speaker 2: low next lowest total over the past decade was twenty

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Speaker 2: nineteen twenty one total losses. Douk, let's go to you

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Speaker 2: higher level CBB trend topic positive whatever.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm still looking at the futures market here, and

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Speaker 5: I think there's still some value in that and there's

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Speaker 5: going to continue to be value. I think taking a

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Speaker 5: step back and trying to avoid recency bias in your

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Speaker 5: perception is really important here when you're trying to piece

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Speaker 5: together your future's portfolio. Every one of these teams at

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Speaker 5: some point is going to take a loss, and many

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Speaker 5: of these teams are going to have three, four or

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Speaker 5: five losses at season's end. But the key is trying

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Speaker 5: to get your guys prepared to make a run. Many

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Speaker 5: of these coaches will divide the season into four segments.

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Speaker 5: You have Segment one, which is your non con You

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Speaker 5: have Segment two, which is kind of the first half

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Speaker 5: of league play. You have Segment three, which we're in now,

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Speaker 5: which is the second half of league play, and then

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Speaker 5: the last quadrant of the schedule is postseason play, which

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Speaker 5: of course consists of the league tournament schedule and then

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Speaker 5: the NCAA Tournament. So the goal is really to get

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Speaker 5: your guys playing their best basketball in that sort of

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Speaker 5: fourth segment. And I think if you can try to

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Speaker 5: position your future's portfolio with teams that are athletic, explosive,

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Speaker 5: teams that can rebound, teams that do things well that

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Speaker 5: they can hang their hat on in a one and

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Speaker 5: done setting in the NCAA Tournament, I think there's still

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Speaker 5: some teams that are out there. I don't love Tennessee,

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Speaker 5: but at one hundred to one as a projected six seed,

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Speaker 5: and I don't think necessarily that Tennessee has played their

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Speaker 5: best offensive basketball. They are one of the best rebounding

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Speaker 5: teams in the entire country. Forty four percent of misses

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Speaker 5: get corraled as offensive rebounds. For Tennessee, you look at

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Speaker 5: the bigs, you look at guys that can play in

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Speaker 5: the paint. They haven't received as much guard play this

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Speaker 5: year as what they did last year, and they're playing

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Speaker 5: a little bit quicker. But I want to lean in

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Speaker 5: on a team that really hasn't played their best basketball

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Speaker 5: up to this point, but a team that is capable

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Speaker 5: of making it to the second weekend, a team that's capable.

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Speaker 4: Of slaying a giant, and a.

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Speaker 5: Team in Tennessee that is routinely in the Sweet sixteen

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Speaker 5: or the Elite eight. I wouldn't be surprised to see

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Speaker 5: this bunch in one of those rounds again. One hundred

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Speaker 5: to one to win the national championship. I just think

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Speaker 5: is miss priced here. I think we'll see Tennessee play

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Speaker 5: a little bit better the next three or four weeks

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Speaker 5: of the season as they get into kind of the

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Speaker 5: tail end of the SEC schedule. So that's one specific

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Speaker 5: team that I'm looking to buy right now on the

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Speaker 5: futures market that I think will get a We'll see

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Speaker 5: this price come down as they play a little better basketball.

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Speaker 3: And to your point, Duck, in terms of their ceiling,

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Speaker 3: they beat Houston, and Houston had a full deck in

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Speaker 3: that game.

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Speaker 4: They just beat Alabama.

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Speaker 3: How much would the narrative be different, how much would

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Speaker 3: the price be different if they hadn't had that second

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Speaker 3: half collapse against Kentucky.

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Speaker 4: My only issue is always my same issue with Tennessee

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Speaker 4: it's Rick Barnes in March. You know, I think they'll

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Speaker 4: get through the first weekends. I think they'll look really good.

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Speaker 3: And the thing is, if they get through the first

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Speaker 3: weekend and you're holding one hundred one ticket, you have,

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Speaker 3: you know, multiple opportunities from a pregame and live betting

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Speaker 3: opportunity to hedge and extract some value from that ticket.

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Speaker 3: So I don't think that that's the wrong play or

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Speaker 3: bad play at all visa VI that price. And I

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Speaker 3: also think Tennessee with just a few breaks, you know,

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Speaker 3: they would have maybe one or two fewer losses on

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Speaker 3: the season. So when you pair that with what they're sealing,

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Speaker 3: is I mean beating Houston. I think that's one of

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Speaker 3: the most difficult teams to beat in all of college

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Speaker 3: basketball this year. So they can play more of that

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Speaker 3: half court grinder game where their rebounding becomes even more

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Speaker 3: pivotal and impactful.

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Speaker 4: So I think that's an interesting play and an interesting angle.

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Speaker 5: Well, I mean, they're twentieth and ken Palm, they're fourteenth

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Speaker 5: in defensive efficiency, they're unranked for the first time in

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Speaker 5: five years. The sentiment on Tennessee could not be lower.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Tennessee also favor. Ken Palm has them favored in

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Speaker 2: nine of their final twelve. I think that's a pretty

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Speaker 2: winnable stretch. And I mean, Rick Barnes just made back

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Speaker 2: to back e lead eights for the first time I

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Speaker 2: think in program history, so it might be worth a

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Speaker 2: look there. We'll move on to rants. I guess, Douck,

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Speaker 2: it sounded like you were pretty mad at the top

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Speaker 2: of the episode. A lot of losses recently on bad unders,

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Speaker 2: So why don't you go into your rant?

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Speaker 4: I remember, this is a safe space. You know what

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Speaker 4: pisses me off most of all. Okay, you're ranting now, baby,

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Speaker 4: I ran why not?

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Speaker 2: You've got to let it out somehow.

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Speaker 5: Well, I mean, we've officially entered no lead is safe

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Speaker 5: territory in college basketball. We've seen massive comebacks day in

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Speaker 5: and day out, which signals that the madness is really

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Speaker 5: in full swing. Just look at last night Michigan Arkansas,

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Speaker 5: Saint Louis Central, Florida, Michigan State. I mean, the list

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Speaker 5: goes on and on. These teams were da and they

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Speaker 5: come back from double digit deficits in the second half.

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Speaker 5: All of these teams steal victory from the jaws of

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Speaker 5: defeat and again, We're seeing land mines all over the

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Speaker 5: betting slate on a nightly basis. No lead is safe,

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Speaker 5: and I talked about this at the beginning, No under

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Speaker 5: is See if I have Drexel Northeastern eighty five points

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Speaker 5: at the under ten time out in the second half,

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Speaker 5: they score seventy six in the final ten minutes, it's

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Speaker 5: just absolutely Unreally, you have teams filing up down twenty.

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Speaker 5: Can we not do that? I just some of these teams.

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Speaker 5: It's it's interesting to see how they play in the

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Speaker 5: last few minutes. Point being, this is college basketball. These

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Speaker 5: are kids. They're playing a kid's game. It's a fall

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Speaker 5: little sport. It's a lot of fun. It's going to

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Speaker 5: happen over the course of the season, so strap in

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Speaker 5: and have fun with it, and just be prepared. You're

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Speaker 5: gonna take some bad, catastrophic beats, but it's just concommon

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Speaker 5: it to the territory. So it's gonna be again, it's

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Speaker 5: gonna be a lot of fun the next five six

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Speaker 5: weeks here until we get to March, and I can't

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Speaker 5: wait to see how it plays out.

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Speaker 2: I've been projecting a lot of overs lately and I

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Speaker 2: wasn't really sure why, and then I realized, you know,

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Speaker 2: we're on track to again set another record for offensive efficiency.

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Speaker 2: I think kem Bomb's at average team one oh eight

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Speaker 2: point one. It was finished one oh six point two

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Speaker 2: last year. Teams are scoring like crazy, and make sure

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Speaker 2: does seem like a lot of that comes in the

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Speaker 2: second half when you think it's going to be a

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Speaker 2: dead shot under uh breeze, let's go to you ramp.

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Speaker 3: All right, I got all my positivity out of the way.

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Speaker 3: Time for me to fume a little bit. I think

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Speaker 3: the way that we slot teams in March Madness is

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Speaker 3: just flat out broken. And the case in point here,

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Speaker 3: I'm going to talk about two teams and their projected

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Speaker 3: seed line per bracket Matrix, which does an incredible job.

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Speaker 3: It's just an aggregator of every single you know, mock

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Speaker 3: bracket out there, and over the course of time it's

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Speaker 3: gotten better and better and more accurate and closer to

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Speaker 3: what the committee actually does. All right, let's talk about

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Speaker 3: Saint Louis seven line. You'll argue that that's, you know,

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Speaker 3: not where they should be, but they're there right next

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Speaker 3: to Kentucky. Kentucky has lost a third of its games

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Speaker 3: this year. They come out of the gates slow every

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Speaker 3: single game pretty much, just the calendar flip to January.

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Speaker 3: Really for two straight months, fourteen straight against the spread

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Speaker 3: first half losses for the Wildcats. It's just incredible. That's

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Speaker 3: obviously a trend that you should be following. I mean,

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Speaker 3: if they don't have miracle second half comebacks against LSU

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Speaker 3: and Tennessee, who we just talked about, should they really

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Speaker 3: be in the field. Should they be on the bubble Kentucky?

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Speaker 3: Yet somehow, Yeah, they're right there with Saint Louis. I

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Speaker 3: think this is an indication. You know, when you look

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Speaker 3: at a Saint Louis team that's twenty and one, their

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Speaker 3: top fifty in offensi efficiency, top twenty five in defense.

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Speaker 3: This is just the metrics being really good at ranking

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Speaker 3: offense and defense, and whenever a schedule is really weak,

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Speaker 3: they got the team must be not good enough. And

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Speaker 3: I think we have to do something as a collective

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Speaker 3: sport about this because there's another team here, Miami of

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Speaker 3: Ohio obviously on the same line the eleven line as

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Speaker 3: Virginia Tech. Those two teams are not equal right now,

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Speaker 3: and I think to say that they are is a

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Speaker 3: little bit ridiculous. The Hoogies are four and four in

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Speaker 3: their last eight games. They have a single win over

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Speaker 3: Ken Pomp top sixty team, same as Miami of Ohio.

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Speaker 3: Like enough already, I think the advanced metrics and this discourse,

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Speaker 3: I'm fine with the volatility being the way that it is.

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Speaker 3: Like if you go ahead and you put Saint Louis

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Speaker 3: as a five or Miami of Ohio as a seven

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Speaker 3: and they lose a single game, go ahead and bump

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Speaker 3: them down two or three lines.

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Speaker 4: Like their schedule is weak.

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Speaker 3: Enough that I think you should be punished if you

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Speaker 3: take losses, but if you don't take losses, I just

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Speaker 3: don't think the system is set up to be able

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Speaker 3: to reward the brand of basketball. Tanner just wrote up

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Speaker 3: a phenomenal piece breaking down what Miami Ohio does.

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Speaker 4: It's not smoking mirrors.

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Speaker 3: It's not a team that's, you know, making fifteen threes

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Speaker 3: per night and that's the way that they're winning.

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Speaker 4: They're playing great basketball on both ends of the floor.

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Speaker 3: And slew is a team that is so dynamic and

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Speaker 3: athletic and deep, and on top of everything else, having

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Speaker 3: Robbie Avila, a big who's so dynamic and difficult to

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Speaker 3: defend both as.

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Speaker 4: A scorer and as a passer.

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Speaker 3: These are not you know, Cinderella's in like a feel

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Speaker 3: good story kind of way and everything needs to break

390
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Speaker 3: their way and shooting variant, it's like they're just dogs.

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Speaker 4: They're just really good teams.

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Speaker 3: And I just think we are ill equipped as a

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Speaker 3: college basketball ranking community, and it filters all the way

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Speaker 3: to the committee. The committee is the one that takes

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Speaker 3: all the bullets at the end on Selection Sunday. But

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Speaker 3: I think just in general, the way that we're thinking

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Speaker 3: about these teams and slotting them is a little bit broken,

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Speaker 3: and there's nothing that they can do on the floor. Clearly,

399
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Speaker 3: these two teams have one loss combined and they can't

400
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Speaker 3: get beyond seven. That's kind of crap.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Miami Ohio strength of record right now nineteenth. Virginia

402
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Speaker 2: Tech is forty seventh, like Miami Ohio. Yeah, they haven't

403
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Speaker 2: really played anyone, But I feel like if you put

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Speaker 2: a team like a Virginia Tech or someone else in

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Speaker 2: their schedule, I feel like they the RedHawks have played

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Speaker 2: just as well as anyone else could have played in

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Speaker 2: their scenario. Like they've just been so good and so

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Speaker 2: dominant on a night in, Night out basis.

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Speaker 5: You know, I think Miami of Ohio needs to accompany

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Speaker 5: their resume with all of the letters that they sent

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Speaker 5: to high major programs asking for a play spot and

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Speaker 5: the rejection letters saying yeah, we're not playing you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually really like that idea. I have no

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Speaker 2: ramp this week. As my friends now, I am the

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Speaker 2: most eminently positive college basketball watcher on the planet that said,

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Speaker 2: we do want to let you know that you should

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421
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Speaker 2: just go around the horn give out our top plays

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Speaker 2: for Thursday and Friday slate. Maybe a look or two

435
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Speaker 2: to the weekend, if you guys have any I think

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Speaker 2: I'm going to start with Duck, and I want Duck.

437
00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,280
Speaker 2: I want you to start here talking about one of

438
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,640
Speaker 2: my favorite coaches in the nation in one Scott Cross

439
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 2: and Troy.

440
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,120
Speaker 5: I mean, just an elite coach and just a shame

441
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 5: what happened to him at UTA and the way that

442
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:08,320
Speaker 5: he was.

443
00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:08,960
Speaker 4: Let go there.

444
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:12,919
Speaker 5: But Troy is projected to be about minus nine hosting

445
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,880
Speaker 5: James Madison. This is an elite coaching advantage here for Troy.

446
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,200
Speaker 5: I really like Scott Cross. He's made this Stroy team

447
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,480
Speaker 5: into a dangerous out, not only in league play, but

448
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,440
Speaker 5: putting a scare into tons of teams in the non

449
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 5: conference as well. One of the top seven Belt teams

450
00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:27,879
Speaker 5: we have here, the team is red hot, winning ten

451
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 5: of eleven, really a buttoned up offensive unit. Victor Valdez

452
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,400
Speaker 5: can go off for twenty or thirty at any time, Bellamy,

453
00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 5: Thomas Dowd just so many athletic guys that can score

454
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 5: in the paint and obtain good position for open looks

455
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,720
Speaker 5: from in close. I don't think James Madison is going

456
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,439
Speaker 5: to be able to defend the scheme, and with a

457
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 5: unit that has scored eighty points five games in a row,

458
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 5: it's just a dangerous matchup here for James Madison on

459
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 5: the road. This team is reeling James Madison. They've lost

460
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 5: seven of ten overall and it's you look at JMU.

461
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:01,640
Speaker 5: So they have to be able to bury the three

462
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 5: ball to stay in this one. I don't think they're

463
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:04,719
Speaker 5: going to be able to do it here. I think

464
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 5: it's a Route nine, nine and a half. I'm laying

465
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 5: the number here with Troy.

466
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I make it, Troy. I make it closer to eleven.

467
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,120
Speaker 2: So if I'm getting under double digits, I think I'll

468
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 2: be on you with Troy. I just love Scott Cross

469
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 2: and James Madison not really both bouncing back in the

470
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 2: post Buyington era turnover. Their turnover differential is one of

471
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 2: the worst in Sunbelt play, and I think that can

472
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:32,160
Speaker 2: bite you against those physical guards that Troy often has breeze.

473
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,320
Speaker 2: One thing I want to talk about with one of

474
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 2: your picks is, you know, I was watching Toledo last night.

475
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,320
Speaker 2: The quality of the offensive play in the MAC this

476
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:49,160
Speaker 2: year is so ridiculously high. I think they have one, two, three,

477
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 2: four five offenses in the top one point fifty of

478
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:55,920
Speaker 2: Ken Palm's offensive efficiency marks. It's just so so good.

479
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 2: And you're looking at Kent State heading to Akron.

480
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think we.

481
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,160
Speaker 3: Can all agree that there is a chance of Akron

482
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,360
Speaker 3: sneakily might be the best team in the MAC.

483
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 4: You know, they lose by three against Miami Ohio.

484
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 3: They can prove that they are the class of the

485
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 3: conference when they go up to Cleveland for the conference tournament.

486
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,880
Speaker 3: If they hammer the RedHawks in that spot, I think

487
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:19,160
Speaker 3: the narrative is going to shift really quick. But twelve

488
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 3: points with the Golden Flashes, if I can get double digits,

489
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 3: I play this down to ten, ten and a half.

490
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 3: I think that's too much because this is clearly going

491
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 3: to be attract meet. Both of these teams want to

492
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 3: push tempo. There's not going to be any contrasting play

493
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 3: to slow things down At all. So I see this

494
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,119
Speaker 3: game being played in the eighties or nineties and the

495
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 3: Golden Flashes just took Miami of Ohio fifteen rounds. You know,

496
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 3: they had an opportunity in the final few possessions of

497
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 3: regulation to win that game. They end up losing in overtime.

498
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 3: Another takeaway from that game, and really, if you watch

499
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,159
Speaker 3: Kent State at all, it's del Rigo Gillespie is clearly

500
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 3: in the running for player of the Year in the

501
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 3: Best Mac Conference.

502
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:56,600
Speaker 4: What since Antonio Gates was playing there, Like, this.

503
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 3: League is deep, this league is really good, and his

504
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 3: battle with Amani Lyles in this game, I think is

505
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 3: going to tell the story. And what's interesting about this

506
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 3: one is when you look at the Zips in general,

507
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 3: they are a good rebounding team, but if Lyles gets

508
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 3: in foul trouble, I think that can kind of go

509
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 3: out of the window. And he has fouled a ton

510
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 3: if you look just to January, he's averaging four point

511
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 3: one fouls per game, and I think that's going to

512
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 3: be an opportunity for this coaching staff to say, get

513
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,119
Speaker 3: some postfeats to Gillespie. And also Glessie's gonna have an

514
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 3: opportunity just because he's such a dog on the glass

515
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,199
Speaker 3: to be able to outposition him maybe in over the

516
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 3: back call or two. And if they send Lyles to

517
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:33,359
Speaker 3: the bench, I think this is going to be an

518
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 3: opportunity not just for Kent to stay within the number,

519
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 3: but to actually be sneakily in this game. At the

520
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 3: final media timeout with four minutes to go, so rob

521
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 3: center off, I think would be wise to get him

522
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,360
Speaker 3: the ball early and often in this game, and he's

523
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 3: done it before. It's not always consistent with Glesbie in

524
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 3: terms of his touches, but when you look at earlier

525
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 3: this month against Bowling Green and Northern Illinois and back

526
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,160
Speaker 3: to back games, he gets to the line twenty eight times,

527
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 3: So this wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility for

528
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 3: him to be the focal point of the offense. Not

529
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 3: necessarily to slow down this game by any stretch, but

530
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 3: certainly to have it be a little bit more post oriented.

531
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 3: To try to put Lyles on the bench, because there's

532
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 3: only so much you can do with the Zips backcourt.

533
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 3: Like Tavari's going to get his shots up and they're

534
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 3: going to score a lot of points. But if they

535
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 3: are giving up offensive rebounding opportunities and they're not getting

536
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,679
Speaker 3: to the glass themselves. I think they can start to

537
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 3: make the math work for them a little bit in

538
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 3: terms of the extra possessions. So I'm gonna go ahead

539
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 3: and take any number in double digits. I think the

540
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,440
Speaker 3: market's sleeping a little bit on the Golden Flashes.

541
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:31,879
Speaker 2: That game is on Friday. By the way, do you

542
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 2: know Rob Whaley is healthy.

543
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 4: I don't have any like updated information.

544
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 3: I think I'm just going to be like the rest

545
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,440
Speaker 3: of the audience here where you know, a few hours

546
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:39,920
Speaker 3: before the game.

547
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 4: Hopefully they're going to give an update.

548
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, hopefully he'll be okay. He was a hero against Miami,

549
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 2: Ohio with I think Gillespie was in foul trouble for

550
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 2: a while and Wayley just went off. That guy's insane.

551
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 2: But we'll go back to duck here for what looks

552
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 2: like an under on Thursday between Sie and Morehead State.

553
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:01,639
Speaker 5: Yeah, we have here as we have the tenth and

554
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 5: eleventh ranked teams in tempo in the OVC, SIU Edwardsville's

555
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 5: second most efficient team in the conference on defense SIUE

556
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 5: three fortieth and paced two hundred and ninety third nationally

557
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 5: and effective field goal percentage per Ken pum. This team

558
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 5: doesn't shoot well from two, they don't shoot well from three,

559
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,919
Speaker 5: they don't get to the line, and every game is

560
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 5: played in the low sixties for possession count. SIUE is

561
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 5: really good at mucking these games up and slowing down

562
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 5: the possession count. Morehead has also slowed way down since

563
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 5: entering league play. They're two ninety fifth and in effective

564
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 5: field goal percentage nationally, three to twelveth in turnover percentage,

565
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 5: and that's going to be the issue here against an

566
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 5: aggressive Cougar defense in this one. Morehead State did have

567
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,399
Speaker 5: some high variant shooting go their way in the first

568
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 5: meeting between these two, which finished at one forty five.

569
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 5: I don't see that shooting variance being there in the rematch.

570
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,120
Speaker 5: I think that Morehead State will turn the ball over

571
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 5: in this one a little bit too much, and Siue

572
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 5: just wants a complete grinder rock fight. So a projected

573
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 5: total of one thirty six and a half or so.

574
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 5: I like the under in this one.

575
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 2: I make it one thirty three and a half. So

576
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 2: if you're getting one thirty six and a half, I'm

577
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 2: going to be all over that. Brie let's go back

578
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 2: to your high major game on Thursday. We're gonna talk

579
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 2: a little behind Steinbach ball.

580
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, Hannas Steinbach is one of my favorite players in

581
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 3: all of college basketball, and if people haven't watched him,

582
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 3: he's arguably the best rebounder in the sport, even though

583
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 3: this is his first year on campus. But a huge

584
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 3: sandwich spot for Illinois here and if I can get

585
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 3: twelve or more. Some projections called for the Huskies to

586
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 3: be catching thirteen and a half here in Champagne the

587
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,200
Speaker 3: fighting line. They just beat Purdue at Mackie. I mean,

588
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 3: talk about an emotional high with an Alzheimer performance from

589
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 3: Wagler that I mentioned at the top of the show.

590
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 3: And just over the horizon on the weekends is a

591
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,680
Speaker 3: game up against Nebraska, another top ten team. So I

592
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 3: think it's human nature for them not to take this

593
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 3: Husky team all that seriously. But I'll say this thing

594
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 3: about you know, U dub in general. Yes, they're eleven

595
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 3: and nine straight up, but the analytics community still really

596
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 3: likes them because they are tough out. They lost to

597
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 3: Michigan and Nebraska by ten apiece. They also for Due

598
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 3: by eight.

599
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 4: They also UCLA by two they're seven to.

600
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 3: Two against the spread in Big ten play, and Steinbach,

601
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 3: who I mentioned, like, yes, he's a phenomenal rebounder, but

602
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:17,440
Speaker 3: also he has his knights where he can get to

603
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 3: twenty and ten, so he can be an offensive engine.

604
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 3: Their defense overall is now top fifty. You're paying such

605
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:25,879
Speaker 3: a premium because there's that number one next to the

606
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,360
Speaker 3: Illinois fighting line I offense, But in terms of what

607
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 3: the Huskies want to do, they're going to make you

608
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 3: take more jumpers. That's where they want to funnel these shots.

609
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,479
Speaker 3: They're twenty fifth and average two point shot distance, and

610
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 3: we know that the LI and I like to get

611
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 3: you into the lane get some easy looks. But what's

612
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:45,360
Speaker 3: interesting is if you can stop them from getting those

613
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 3: post looks and getting to the hoop driving, there's an

614
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 3: opportunity for you to take a little bit off of

615
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 3: their offensive efficiency because they don't do anything in the

616
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 3: fast break, which is kind of impressive considering that they're

617
00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 3: number one in offensive efficiency. They're three hundred and fifty

618
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,400
Speaker 3: six in fast break points with fewer than six per game,

619
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 3: which is really interesting. I mean, so much of this

620
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 3: is powered by their three point prowess, making over eleven

621
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 3: per game. But I think if udub can defend the line,

622
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 3: you know, even at a point where they're only making

623
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 3: a third of their threes, I think they're going to

624
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 3: hang around here. And this is the same Illinois team

625
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 3: that played with their food. They messed around against Penn State,

626
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 3: they didn't cover. They only beat Northwestern by eleven. They

627
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 3: didn't cover against Minnesota's fifteen point favorites. I think this

628
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 3: is the absolute perfect spot to go ahead and take

629
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 3: the market love for the ALIGNI and take an extra

630
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 3: point or two of value and go ahead with the

631
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,719
Speaker 3: Huskies here, who are basically a non public team at

632
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,919
Speaker 3: this point because people start looking at the you know,

633
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 3: projected brackets, they look get the standings. This team's not

634
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 3: going to go dancing. They're a lame duck in people's minds.

635
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 3: But I think the Huskies are still a prideful bunch,

636
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 3: is still playing some pretty good basketball.

637
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 4: A lease against the spread.

638
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you remember last year when Illinois could

639
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 2: make a jump shot and we're all like sow down.

640
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 2: Then when all that regression seems to have come the

641
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 2: other way. I mean, during this like winning streak forty

642
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 2: percent from three against per thirty eight percent against Maryland,

643
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 2: thirty seven percent against Minnesota, thirty seven percent against Northwestern,

644
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 2: thirty six percents against Iowa. I mean, it goes on

645
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 2: and on, and like you said, like it's not like

646
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:12,239
Speaker 2: they were dominant in a lot of those games. They

647
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 2: played with their food and a few of those so

648
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 2: I don't mind. Now look at all one more from

649
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 2: Duck Friday Night Mac mwat M double ac action between

650
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 2: Mount Saint Mary's and Saint Peter's.

651
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 3: Yeah.

652
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 5: I've made a joke in the past that my three

653
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 5: favorite conferences in college basketball are the MAC, the MAC,

654
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 5: and the MIAC. So we got the MAC tonight or

655
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 5: Friday Night. Mount Saint Mary's and Saint Peter's projected total

656
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 5: one thirty seven. First meeting ended one thirty five, and

657
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 5: that was with a combined sixty one foul shots attempted.

658
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 5: These two teams made eighteen and nineteen total field goals, respectively.

659
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 5: And both of these offenses are horrific and cannot shoot.

660
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 5: Mount Saint Mary's three twenty eighth then adjusted efficiency a

661
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 5: poor shooting team from deep, and they shoot a lot

662
00:29:58,080 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 5: of threes, so you're gonna get a lot of empty

663
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 5: possess wasted possessions. They settle for low percentage jumpers more

664
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 5: than about anyone in this conference. Saint Peter's can defend

665
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 5: that Mount Saint Mary's three hundred and sixty fourth nationally

666
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 5: in turnover rate. Just real trouble squaring off against the

667
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 5: Peacocks in this one. Saint Peter's three p fifty fifth

668
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 5: nationally in effective field goal percentage. They don't get to

669
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 5: the line. They have below average post play, and I

670
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 5: one thing I think is interesting in this one. Mount

671
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:29,239
Speaker 5: Saint Mary's allows the pace to be dictated by their

672
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 5: opponent more than about anybody in this conference. And we

673
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 5: know Saint Peter's is going to be methodical leaning on

674
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 5: their defense. This is going to be a slow, burning grinder.

675
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 5: If you've ever seen one first team to sixty five

676
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 5: wins with a projected total of one thirty seven, I'm

677
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 5: going in on the under.

678
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 2: Yeah. Only thing I'd be worry about that is Saint

679
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 2: Peters grabs a lot of offensive events, but that's pretty

680
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 2: much the only way they can score. So I mean,

681
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 2: if if the Mount keeps them off the offensive glass,

682
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 2: you think that game's a dead shot. Under. Okay, one

683
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 2: more from breeze Thursday and ad action looks like a

684
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 2: couple of drop coverage lead drop coverage defenses. Hawaiian, you

685
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 2: see Irvine, what do you got? Yeah?

686
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 3: Iaran Gannats and Russell Turner are some of the best

687
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 3: defensive coaches in all of college basketball. Forget about the

688
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 3: low major Moniker, but when you look at it, the

689
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 3: Rainbows twenty fourth in defensive efficiency for ken Bomb, Irvine

690
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 3: thirty second Irvine also, you know, middle of the pack

691
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 3: in terms of TEMP one hundred and fifty seventh. Hawaii

692
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 3: doesn't do much in transition, so I think Irvine, even

693
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 3: if they get let's call it ten or twelve fast

694
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 3: break points, I think most of this game is going

695
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,959
Speaker 3: to be played in the half court. And generally speaking,

696
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 3: Hawaii in terms of low major basketball, they have the

697
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 3: special calling card and having Johnson ruledef and Nemisha to

698
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 3: be able to give them a huge rebounding advantage and

699
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 3: rim defense the third in effective field goal percentage defense

700
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 3: by the way, but.

701
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 4: Irvine has bigs too.

702
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 3: I think this is just a strength on strength matchup,

703
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 3: So I think in the half court it's going to

704
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 3: be very difficult for people to get easy looks inside

705
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 3: of five feet. They got Evans, Carrington Scholl, and this

706
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 3: system under Turner has them leading the entire nation in

707
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 3: two point percentage defense. Final piece of this, both of

708
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 3: these teams allow fewer than point two to five kill

709
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 3: shots per game, which is super elite. So in terms

710
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 3: of scoring in bunches, you're not going to see it.

711
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 4: On either side of this. It really comes down to this.

712
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 3: Number in terms of you know where the market lands.

713
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 3: I would play it all the way down to one

714
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 3: thirty four.

715
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 4: I'm hoping.

716
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:24,959
Speaker 3: I've seen some projections at one hundred and thirty six

717
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 3: and a half. That would be great, but I think

718
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 3: that's predicated on the fact that why he's had a

719
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 3: few scoring outbursts recently in their past six games. I

720
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 3: don't think that's going to be the case here. I

721
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 3: think this game is going to be played in the sixties,

722
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 3: and I'd be happy.

723
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 4: To go under anything below. Let's call it like one

724
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 4: thirty four. Let's go under on that.

725
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 2: Russell Turner when he has one big dude that he

726
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 2: can anchor his defense around, is one of the best

727
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 2: defensive coaches in the nation. As you said, this year,

728
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 2: he has three He's got three guys over six foot

729
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 2: ten plays them all. He plays roll at the four

730
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 2: a bunch that's seven yeah, seven foot flat, so damn

731
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 2: good defense. We are recording this episode a little bit

732
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 2: earlier than we usually do on Wednesday, right around noon,

733
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 2: So Duck actually has a play for tonight, little extra play,

734
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 2: So go ahead and give it out, Duck. Yeah, just

735
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 2: real quick.

736
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 5: I like TCU's team total tonight under sixty four and

737
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 5: a half. Houston has lost nine games since the start

738
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 5: of twenty twenty four. In the games that preceded those losses,

739
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 5: they're eight and one straight up with seven double digit wins.

740
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 5: And I cannot imagine that the last two defensive performances

741
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 5: for Houston has sat well. With Kelvin Samson surrendering ninety

742
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 5: against Texas Tech in a tough environment in an Elite

743
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 5: eight sort of environment with a lot of gravitas in

744
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 5: the situation Texas Tech Breeze and I talked about this

745
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 5: last week a little underrated. Maybe that started to get

746
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 5: a little bit more corrected for what Texas Tech potential is.

747
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 5: But also surrendering seventy three against Arizona State at home

748
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 5: last Sunday, I don't think that sits well with Kelvin Samson.

749
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 5: I think Houston gets back to basics on defense, and

750
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 5: the last two meetings against TCU, Houston has surrendered forty

751
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 5: six and forty five points against the Frogs. They're very

752
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 5: familiar with the scheme, they know how to defend it.

753
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,800
Speaker 5: I think Houston gets back to basics with their defense tonight.

754
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 5: Sixty four and a half is too many for TCU's

755
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:14,320
Speaker 5: team total, so I'm going to under sixty four and

756
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 5: a half with TCU's team total tonight. Wanted to sneak

757
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 5: that one in since we can get this one out

758
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 5: here before the games start tonight.

759
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a bit of a sicko because I actually

760
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 2: took some TCU at eight and a half. And the

761
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 2: problem is, I don't disagree with you at all. I

762
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 2: don't know how they score, but TCU is kind of

763
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 2: like a mini Houston in that they play the exact

764
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 2: same defense. TCU will hedge and blitz a lot, but

765
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 2: I think the only way you could stop Houston right

766
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 2: now is to get the ball out of Kingston Fleming's hands.

767
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 2: So I kind of think that's what's gonna happen here,

768
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 2: and then Houston's gonna have to rely on their defense

769
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:46,399
Speaker 2: to win. So hell, maybe we can get both. Maybe

770
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:48,880
Speaker 2: we can get like a fifty six to fifty final.

771
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:52,399
Speaker 2: Before we get out of here, let's just run through

772
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 2: one best bet of our show, our favorite play for midweek.

773
00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 2: And you know what I'm gonna sneak in here. I'm

774
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 2: gonna give one because it's not a Tanner hosted episode

775
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 2: without some America East talk. Vermont UNBC tomorrow night. I

776
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,959
Speaker 2: believe it's at patrick huge game. Both teams are tied

777
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 2: atop the America East standings UNBC. The Retrievers have been

778
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 2: my darling this year. UNBC can't play post defense, it's

779
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 2: their only weakness, So Gus Yalden is going to go

780
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 2: for fifty points in this one. Meanwhile, Vermont's dribble defense

781
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:27,239
Speaker 2: is pretty bad, has been battle year, and it's even

782
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 2: worse now because TJ. Long is still out with an

783
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 2: ankle injury or something, meaning they're putting in Ben Johnson

784
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 2: and Ben Johnson and TJ. Hurley and Sean Blake. That

785
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 2: backcourt just can't stay in front of everyone off the dribble,

786
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 2: and UNBC has like four electric guards who can all

787
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 2: take you off the bounce and they can play their

788
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 2: driving kick game. So anything I think I make this

789
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:48,920
Speaker 2: total like one to forty one. So anything under one

790
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 2: forty I'm gonna go take it. I think it's gonna

791
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 2: be a high scoring, fun game. Douc, what's your best

792
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 2: bet for Thursday, Friday, Saturday, whatever.

793
00:35:58,000 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 5: Well, before I get into it, Tanner, I'm glad you're

794
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 5: on the pod today. For anyone listening in. Follow Tanner

795
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 5: on Twitter at Tanner's Truth. He is just you have

796
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 5: such elite access to the coaches that you get to interview,

797
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 5: the scheme, the intimate familiarity with the schemes in the

798
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 5: America East. There's nobody better in the country at Ame

799
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 5: East basketball. So if you like that sort of stuff,

800
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:19,320
Speaker 5: which I do, I mean you are a great follow

801
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 5: and a great person to extract information from when you're

802
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 5: betting on Amy. So wanted to put that plug out there.

803
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 5: I really like Troy on Thursday. I think that the

804
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,400
Speaker 5: schematics line up for Troy to blow out James Madison.

805
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 5: I have zero confidence whatsoever in James Madison's ability to

806
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 5: provide any on ball pressure to force turnovers. I think

807
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 5: Troy can execute in the paint. I think they'll get

808
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 5: to the line, and I just feel like Troy's athleticism

809
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 5: will take over in the second half. James Madison has

810
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:51,320
Speaker 5: been shredded, absolutely shredded in the interior of their defense

811
00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:54,920
Speaker 5: by lesser foes this season in league play in recent weeks.

812
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 5: Troy should win this game by fifteen to eighteen points.

813
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 2: Love it, Breeze, You got one favorite from the show.

814
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 3: Defensive Masterclass in the Big West. YU see her vine

815
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 3: under one thirty five. If you look at these two teams,

816
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:10,880
Speaker 3: they have been ATMs on the under. When you can

817
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 3: bind their performance on totals twenty five and eleven, that's

818
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 3: their record on under seventy percent cash rate. I think

819
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 3: these two teams are gonna slow it down. I'm hoping

820
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,320
Speaker 3: that this game is in the fifties in the final

821
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 3: minute or two, so I don't get burned by any

822
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 3: late game fouling situation, because really that's I think the

823
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 3: only bugaboo potentially halting this one from getting to the window.

824
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 2: All right, well, just I'll do a little recap for

825
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:38,320
Speaker 2: everyone out there. So Wednesday night, Duck is on TCU

826
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 2: team total under sixty four and a half and I

827
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 2: regretfully took some TCU plus eight and a half and

828
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,280
Speaker 2: looked for seven and a half or better. Thursday, Ducks

829
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 2: on SIU e Morehead State under looking for one thirty

830
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:51,000
Speaker 2: six and a half or better. And then Duck also

831
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 2: on Thursday loves Troy. Troy anything single digits minus nine

832
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 2: you thinks is gonna win by fifteen. Mike on Thursday

833
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 2: he's going with Washington plus the points at thirteen and

834
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 2: a half, I think, is what he said. And then

835
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 2: of course the Big West Defensive Masterclass between Hawaii and

836
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,719
Speaker 2: UC Irvine under one thirty four are better. And then

837
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 2: on Friday, Duck likes Mount Saint Mary Saint Peter's under

838
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:16,720
Speaker 2: one thirty seven ish and Breeze likes Kent State plus

839
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 2: twelve at Akron. And then of course on Thursday, I

840
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 2: like Vermont umbc over but that I'll do it. For

841
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 2: this episode of the Big Bets on Campus podcast, thank

842
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 2: you for joining us, all my thanks to Duck, my

843
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 2: thanks to Mike, my thanks to David on the back end.

844
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:33,839
Speaker 2: Don't miss the BBOC weekend preview was Stucky, Greg and

845
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,959
Speaker 2: Jim on Friday mornings and the Three Man Weaves Early

846
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,839
Speaker 2: Week preview on Monday mornings. Love those guys. Make sure

847
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 2: you subscribe on subscribere subscribe, leave us a five star review.

848
00:38:43,600 --> 00:39:01,760
Speaker 2: Good luck with all your bets this week. Thanks guys.

849
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

850
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

851
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler