1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now, I want to 7 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:24,479 Speaker 1: go over to John wu. He is the president of 8 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:28,520 Speaker 1: Ava Labs. We talked to him before about the crypto world, 9 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 1: and John is great to have you back on this morning. Um, 10 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:35,600 Speaker 1: we were almost caught off guard by a p d 11 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 1: o C headline saying that all bitcoin, all crypto transactions 12 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: in China will henceforth be considered illegal. What exactly does 13 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 1: that mean? Everything having to do with crypto except for 14 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 1: just holding it is against the law, Hi, Paulhaim Matt. 15 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 1: So it is not clear how they define transactions, and 16 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: a lot of this is actually left as a signal 17 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: so that people realize that they don't like this stuff 18 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 1: and that you should be wary as opposed to having 19 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 1: specifics out. But really this is nothing new from what 20 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:12,680 Speaker 1: they've been doing all year in terms of what they 21 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 1: were doing with technology and um what they've done in 22 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 1: crypto Basically in thirteen they restricted banks from handling bitcoin, 23 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 1: seventeen they banned exchanges. Nineteen and twenty they were even 24 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:29,400 Speaker 1: the same thing to bitcoin mining. What they are against 25 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 1: is basically losing control of their monetary system and worried 26 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 1: about capital flight. All right, John, how should we really 27 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:43,119 Speaker 1: step back and think about this here? Uh? Anytime China, 28 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: you know, makes a move, it has global repercussions. What 29 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 1: do you think I know we have a lot of 30 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 1: time to really ponder this, but what do you think 31 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: this means for just the crypto space in general? If 32 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 1: China is going to be perhaps way more restricted than 33 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 1: we thought, there's a lot of resilience in the crypto space. 34 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: When they were banning China was banning mining UM in 35 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 1: nineteen and two thousand twenty, their mining in China was 36 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 1: about seventy s the global mining for bitcoin it is 37 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:19,959 Speaker 1: down to but nothing is slowed down because a lot 38 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: of that is now in West Texas. So the US 39 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: we have benefited from some of their authoritative actions, if 40 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 1: you will, and even locally, individual China nationalists have found 41 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:36,120 Speaker 1: ways to ultimately be involved in the space whether as 42 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 1: a developer or as an investor in various uh you 43 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:45,919 Speaker 1: know tokens. They've all of every resilient users and developers 44 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 1: and miners ultimately find some way to do it properly 45 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,919 Speaker 1: and hopefully we in the US can continue to benefit 46 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 1: from their harsh rules. What is the problem? I mean, 47 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: are they concerned that too many people are going to 48 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 1: speculate and may um, you know, lose their savings. Are 49 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:08,919 Speaker 1: the concerned that wealthy people are going to use crypto 50 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 1: to move assets out of the country. Why is China 51 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 1: so veriantly anti anti bitcoin, anti crypto? So that's the 52 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: last point is correct in my opinion, they're worried about 53 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:25,919 Speaker 1: capital flight. Don't forget they actually love the technology there. 54 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 1: I mean, people forget there is a Chinese central bank 55 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 1: back digital you want that, There are CBD you know wallets, 56 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 1: central bank wallets that they have air drop and distributed 57 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: the digital you want to individuals. They love the technology. 58 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 1: They are just against loose and control of the monitoring 59 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 1: system and giving up too much freedom. Well, I mean, Johnny, 60 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 1: are you should chinying to be concerned that they will 61 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: lose their ability if they're not really part of the 62 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 1: crypto market, they might lose their positioning in there. They 63 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: should and we should, um. And this is why you know, 64 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: decentralization is so powerful in this world of blockchain and crypto. Investors, developers, 65 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 1: users are all able to find a way to continue 66 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: to grow the ecosystem and the ecosystems at the point 67 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: now where it's not just about capital in the sense 68 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: of bitcoin, the way China is looking at bitcoin and 69 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 1: as a possible digital flight mechanism or store value or 70 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:32,599 Speaker 1: medium exchange. There's actually real utility now, utility in terms 71 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 1: of a decentralized finance system. I've been on talking to 72 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 1: you guys about n f t s and it's utilization 73 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 1: of not just cryptal native people, but also traditional people, artists, entertainers, 74 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 1: and financial services professionals. Interesting, all right, John, It was 75 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 1: great to get you on. Here are lots of news 76 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: shaping this space right now. John Wu, President of Ava 77 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:59,040 Speaker 1: Labs based in New York. We have been talking a 78 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: little bit about the infrastructure build, the possibility that that 79 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 1: gets past or maybe watered down a little bit. Let's 80 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 1: bring in someone who um relies on knowledge of this 81 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: for his living. Josh Diets, a senior portfolio manager over 82 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:18,720 Speaker 1: at Aberdeen Standard Investments and he is specifically the manager 83 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 1: of the Aberdeen Standard Global Infrastructure Income Fund. So, Josh, 84 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 1: what do you know about where we stand in regards 85 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 1: to Biden's spending plans. It seems like right now, um, 86 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 1: you know, a lot of discussions take place next week 87 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 1: on it, and they're trying to group the three point 88 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 1: five trillion new plan with the one point to trillion 89 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 1: true infrastructure plan. Now, we view at one point two 90 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: trillion as a true infrastructure plan with spending on important 91 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 1: infrastructure assets for the future, such as the power grid 92 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 1: for broadband. The three point five trillion we don't really 93 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:58,840 Speaker 1: view as infrastructure, and that's really to me much more 94 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:04,039 Speaker 1: uh typical on spending package. Right then infrastructure? All right, 95 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 1: josh I, I personally went down to d C and 96 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 1: made my pitch for the gateway plan that is so 97 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: critical for the metro New York area. So beside the gateway, 98 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:16,239 Speaker 1: what are some of the interesting areas you're looking at 99 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 1: in this bill? Again, it's the new tunnel underneath the 100 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: Hudson River to replace the one year old railway tunnels 101 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 1: for Amtrak and New Jersey Transit. You know, like people 102 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:30,559 Speaker 1: a day and go through. So they built like three 103 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: in the last hundred years, don't I don't know. I 104 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 1: don't know. It's New Jersey, New York. That's all you 105 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 1: need to know. So, um, Josh, So beside my beloved gateway, 106 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 1: what else is in this bill that you're focusing on? 107 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:44,919 Speaker 1: So there's two areas that we think are prying for 108 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 1: growth and are happening with or without the bill, but 109 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:51,280 Speaker 1: it's just really a catalyst. On one is a sixty 110 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 1: billion dollars for the power grid, and that we need 111 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 1: an updated power grid because of all the renewable energy 112 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: we're starting to produce here in the United States. Last year, 113 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:04,600 Speaker 1: for example, we spent about twenty five billion dollars just 114 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 1: on wind alone. Solar makes up about three of our 115 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 1: US production that could grow at about so we need 116 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 1: an updated power grid for the transmission lines to transmit 117 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 1: that energy produced. The other part is for the broadband. 118 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 1: Were spent about sixty billion dollars extremely important to make 119 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 1: sure that rural areas, low income communities have access to 120 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 1: four and then five j So we we really believe 121 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 1: that's the two areas of growth for infrastructure, one on 122 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: the renewable side and two in towers four five G. 123 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 1: So who makes money off this or what what are 124 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: you investing in UM? Who do you think the winners 125 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: are going to be? The winners are to be clear 126 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 1: as day for when we talk about the transformation from 127 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: four to G to five G, we should invest in 128 00:07:55,840 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 1: the towers. We've seen percent data growth. It's only going 129 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:03,120 Speaker 1: to accelerate when we have five G. Just as a 130 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 1: data point, if we get to autonomous vehicles and they're 131 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 1: gonna generate as much data per hour as the equivalent 132 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 1: of an iPhones used over three thousand years. So we 133 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 1: need UM more dense, more dense towers globally. So we 134 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 1: like companies like ant here in the U S and 135 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 1: c c I in Europe. We like companies like some big, 136 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 1: big beneficiaries going forward up for five G, and we 137 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 1: think we're in the early stages of that growth. It's 138 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 1: gonna last a decade or so. In order to identify 139 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 1: the towers. The other side, as I mentioned on the 140 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,840 Speaker 1: renewable energy, we're spending more and more, not only here 141 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:43,800 Speaker 1: in the United States but also in Europe. In Europe 142 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:48,200 Speaker 1: they spend fifty billion dollars on building wind last year. 143 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 1: That's only going to accelebrate, accelerate. If you look at 144 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 1: the EU, they proposed a fit for fifty five, which 145 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:59,840 Speaker 1: basically means that there are two thousand in the emissions 146 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 1: to arguts are going from. Beneficiaries of that are next 147 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 1: terror here in the United States, are WU in Europe, 148 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 1: Email in Europe, so we think there's a lot of 149 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 1: beneficiaries for that. Matt I worked on those I p 150 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: O s of Crown Castle in American Tower and those 151 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 1: are which is really awesome. Uh, companies, awesome businesses. Man, 152 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:25,200 Speaker 1: It's just a nice It's almost like a real estate 153 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:28,080 Speaker 1: play and the driver is five G and just increasing 154 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 1: use of data. So how is the sector performed in general? Josh, 155 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:34,679 Speaker 1: I'm just talking infrastructure. How is your sector over the 156 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:39,640 Speaker 1: last several years performed. So we have one fund that's 157 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 1: been around for thirteen years, a s g I, and 158 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:47,800 Speaker 1: that's performed extremely well, roughly twelve and it returns. Infrastructure 159 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 1: is fairly wide. So when you ask how the infrastructure 160 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 1: sector has performed as a fund, it's performed well. There's 161 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 1: different sectors within infrastructure. There's the communications sector, as we mentioned, 162 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: the towers have done extremely well. Renewable energy plays within 163 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:04,680 Speaker 1: utilities have done well in the in the transport fector 164 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 1: that's not done as well because, especially because of COVID, 165 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 1: when we've seen people not flyings we own airports and 166 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 1: roads globally, that hasn't performed as well recently. Hey, Josh, 167 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciated great timing 168 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 1: here with this infrastructure bill winding its way through Congress. 169 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 1: To kind of get your thoughts here, Josh Deed's senior 170 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:29,559 Speaker 1: portfolio manager for Aberdeen Standard Investments. He specific portfolio manager 171 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: the Aberdeen Standard Global Infrastructure Income Fund, so he knows 172 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 1: a thing or two about what's happening there on infrastructure. 173 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 1: And again, that bill winding its way through Congress, a 174 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 1: lot of pieces surrounding whether it's gonna be tied to 175 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 1: the Greater Spending bill uh, and that may slow it down, 176 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 1: but the expectation is that bill is bipartisan support and 177 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 1: we'll get through well. The whole concept of a globalization, 178 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 1: at least my mind, seems to maybe have lost some 179 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:02,199 Speaker 1: momentum over the last were five years as many countries 180 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: look more inward. Uh. Maybe perhaps led by the United 181 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 1: States itself. Let's check in with Tracy McMillan, head of 182 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 1: Global asset Allocation Strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. 183 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 1: They've got a new report out that looks at globalization. So, Tracy, again, 184 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 1: maybe it's just me, but it feels like it's lost 185 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 1: a little bit of momentum. You know, America first, all 186 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 1: that kind of thing, lots of nationalism across Europe and 187 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 1: Brexit Brexit, thank you very much. Uh what do you think, Tracy? 188 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 1: What did you find? Yes? And thank you for having 189 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 1: me today. So what we found was that globalization is 190 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 1: definitely changing, but we don't think that it's ending. You know. 191 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 1: We we don't think that all production of goods for 192 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 1: US consumers will return to the United States, and we 193 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:58,080 Speaker 1: don't think that all good ideas um are located within 194 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 1: uh certain geographic border. But we do think that countries 195 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 1: are going to continue to trade and the cost of 196 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: that trade, though, it's going to include more than just 197 00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: the pure cost of the goods. So in in other words, 198 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,439 Speaker 1: you know, some of those um, some of those things 199 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:22,559 Speaker 1: that are blocking globalism, populist sentiment, separatist movements, internet control, 200 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 1: media censorship, you know, some of the things you're alluding 201 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: to their are are definitely going to add costs to 202 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 1: globalization as we know it. I mean, the President of 203 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:38,680 Speaker 1: the United States, Great Britain. These are things that we're 204 00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 1: block globalization as well, right, But now you can add 205 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: supply chain issues. Are aren't more companies trying to bring 206 00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: their production home or make it local to where they 207 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: sell their goods? Yeah, you're you're exactly right about that. 208 00:12:55,600 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: Supply chains are definitely evolving. And you know the admented 209 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:04,440 Speaker 1: supply chains that we've grown accustomed to, you know, those 210 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 1: that are across a lot of different low wage producers 211 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 1: um production centers, those are becoming more concentrated. We think, 212 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 1: we think they are going to be more high tech 213 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:21,079 Speaker 1: and more regionalized. And we think a great example of 214 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 1: that is clothing. So you think about how uh, you know, 215 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: the fibers used to be put together in material and 216 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 1: a certain group of countries, and then that fabric would 217 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 1: be sent to China, China would construct the garment, and 218 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:39,080 Speaker 1: then it would be sent to the United States. And 219 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:43,839 Speaker 1: so now we think that those supply chains um that 220 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 1: created vulnerabilities and dependencies are are going to start to 221 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 1: coalesce around the major consumption centers of the world and 222 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:58,840 Speaker 1: that's going to be the US and China in India. So, Tracy, 223 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 1: how much does it's It seems really over the last 224 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 1: twenty five years that globalization has just been a just 225 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 1: a given and it's technology. It's just how businesses are evolving, 226 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:13,839 Speaker 1: are becoming more interconnected. Can that be stopped? I mean, 227 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 1: it just seems like it's just a natural evolution, even 228 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:20,200 Speaker 1: if for a period of time the United States doesn't 229 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 1: want to lead, or even if the UK doesn't want 230 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 1: to be part of a bigger EU, is it something 231 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 1: that's just natural? Yeah? So, um, you know, one of 232 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 1: the things we observed is that trade of goods as 233 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 1: a percent of global GDP has been falling. So if 234 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 1: you think about you know, manufactured goods, that's what most 235 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 1: of us think about when we think about globalization, but 236 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 1: that has indeed been falling as a percent of GDP 237 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: since two thousand and eight, and that's as those production 238 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 1: facilities do start to locate closer to the end market. 239 00:14:56,320 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 1: But the interesting thing here is that digital technology are 240 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 1: spurring future trade growth and that's mostly in services. And 241 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 1: the services you know, include things um that are you know, 242 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: considered anything as a service, so you know, we're looking 243 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 1: at things like UH people and companies that purchase capital 244 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 1: resources and then loan out. The UM productive capacity of 245 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: those UH capital resources. Trade in services is twenty three 246 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 1: times higher since Steen seventy six, and it's doubling every 247 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 1: five years. So by some estimates are that services could 248 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: represent fifty per cent of globalized trade. So it's really 249 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 1: all about digital then, I mean not all, but the 250 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: lion share of what you see as the future of 251 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 1: globalization depends on the Internet. A lot of it does, yes, UM, 252 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:04,400 Speaker 1: so it will depend on information technology. We think consumer 253 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 1: discretionary companies and healthcare companies are also poised well to 254 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:14,720 Speaker 1: benefit UM from this evolving trend. And we think that 255 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 1: US companies are poised well to benefit from this UM. 256 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 1: You know, US companies benefit from UM having different differentiation UM. 257 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 1: They are also very innovative, and they are prepared for 258 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 1: a world where we think that there could be big 259 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: shifts and production centers and they'll need to have a 260 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 1: deeper knowledge of local consumers. So that's where that digitalization 261 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 1: information that instantaneously crosses borders all come into play. How 262 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 1: about China, I'm sorry, how about India? Because it seems 263 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: like China perhaps isn't necessarily going to be as welcoming 264 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 1: as perhaps some business leader's thought over the last decade 265 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:07,439 Speaker 1: or so. Is India the next big thing? So we 266 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:10,120 Speaker 1: do think that India is going to play a significant 267 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:14,159 Speaker 1: role in globalization going forward. They already have a competitive 268 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 1: advantage and services, whereas you know, China may have that 269 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 1: competitive vantage in production. We think that India has the 270 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:25,640 Speaker 1: competitive advantage and services and will continue to have that. 271 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 1: Um We also think that because the population in India 272 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:34,640 Speaker 1: is young and growing, and they also have a growing 273 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 1: middle class, that there are quite a bit uh of 274 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 1: investment opportunities associated with India. Alright, very cool stuff, really 275 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 1: cool report. Tracy McMillan, thanks so much for your time. 276 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 1: Tracy McMillan is the head of Global Asset Allocation Strategy 277 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 1: at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, and she's talking to 278 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:04,400 Speaker 1: us about the Investment Institutes Globalization report, which is I mean, 279 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 1: it's suffered I think to some extent under President Trump 280 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 1: and and Brexit and the nationalism that we see across Europe. 281 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 1: But then again, obviously because of the coronavirus pandemic, maybe 282 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 1: even worse because of the supply chains that were tripped 283 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:31,760 Speaker 1: up amidst lockdowns globally. This is Bloomberg. Kind of a 284 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 1: mixed morning here, but coming off of some of those 285 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,200 Speaker 1: early trading session lows, let's get a sense of where 286 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:40,400 Speaker 1: we are here when this market tremendous amount of volatility 287 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:44,200 Speaker 1: this week. Welcome Dave Harden. He's a CEO and chief 288 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,199 Speaker 1: investment officer of Summit Global Investments. They have approximately one 289 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 1: point eight billion dollars in assets under management, So Dave, 290 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 1: kind of a wild week here. We started off with 291 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: a big, big sell off, maybe a little contagion coming 292 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 1: out of China some of those fears. But boy, this 293 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:00,959 Speaker 1: market has bounced back and the by the dip folks 294 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 1: seem to have won the day. What do you make 295 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 1: of this week in this market? Well, thanks for having me, 296 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,000 Speaker 1: glad to be here, and it has been a very 297 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 1: volatile week, right, and I think the volatility continues, and 298 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 1: so yes, by the dip one. But the story is 299 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 1: not written yet. It's we're not over yet, and you 300 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,679 Speaker 1: saw the wall of worry just getting higher now with 301 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,440 Speaker 1: China and the crackdown in crypto. Um, I don't think 302 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: the evergreendly is over yet. The technically, conditions are extremely 303 00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 1: high right now, um, and so I think there's a 304 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:38,359 Speaker 1: lot more volatility to come. So if you're holding a 305 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 1: stock and it's not where you wanted to have it, 306 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:45,240 Speaker 1: just wait a little while a might get there right 307 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:49,120 Speaker 1: total um, which is by the way, I guess in China, 308 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,920 Speaker 1: if you're holding bigcoin, that's your only choice right now 309 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,399 Speaker 1: because you can't make any transactions in terms of the 310 00:19:55,440 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 1: evergrand issue. What are your big concerns? Well, contagious going 311 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:04,400 Speaker 1: to HSBC, going to other stocks that have the exposure 312 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,639 Speaker 1: over into China. Um, you know, nights down today, but 313 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 1: it's really not the same situation. It's the Vietnam issue. 314 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:14,200 Speaker 1: So what I'm worried about is the contagion of other 315 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 1: issues coming into stocks that have no play whatsoever in 316 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:22,880 Speaker 1: that area. That's what I'm worried about. So all right, Dave, 317 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 1: where you know, there's a lot of people that are, 318 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 1: in fact, we're concerned about this market kind of you know, 319 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 1: whether it's evaluation concern, whether it's just a frothiness concern 320 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,679 Speaker 1: when they look at certain segments of the market. And 321 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,719 Speaker 1: we saw that on Monday, perhaps in some of that trading, 322 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:41,440 Speaker 1: certainly early in the day, where do you feel comfortable 323 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:46,239 Speaker 1: deploying capital? Uh in markets today? It just feels like, 324 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: even with the tenure at one point four percent and change, 325 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 1: that's not the place where are you thinking about your allocation? 326 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 1: Well that's a really good point. And it's funny how 327 00:20:56,359 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 1: finally investors are carrying about risk. No one cared about 328 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 1: risk for a long time. And so when you think 329 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 1: of risk management and deploying capital right now, you know, 330 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:07,880 Speaker 1: some of the things that come right in my mind 331 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 1: is like Costco. So Costco here's a very fine stock. 332 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 1: Everybody knows about it, or if not, they're members of 333 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,880 Speaker 1: the stock that you know, members of themselves and shopping there. 334 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,720 Speaker 1: But it's a stock that's done tremendously well. If you 335 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 1: look over the last year, it's basically been the same 336 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,879 Speaker 1: return as the SMP five hundreds, but it's a significant 337 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 1: less risk. We're talking about a sixty eight beta, so 338 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:33,080 Speaker 1: a lot less volatility, good equity returns, and moving forward, 339 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 1: I would say outperforms the market going forward. Domestic, so 340 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,720 Speaker 1: we we know the domestic situation extremely well. With COVID. 341 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 1: You think emerging markets, Vietnam, you know, China, we don't 342 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 1: know those situations as well. So you understand this very 343 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,840 Speaker 1: very well. You shop there. This is a very good 344 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 1: stock to own. Right now, what about consumer um? We've 345 00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,679 Speaker 1: seen consumer confidence fall drastic. I'm not saying that's going 346 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 1: to hit cost code necessarily, maybe even a boon to 347 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,639 Speaker 1: a company like Costco. But what what about the effects 348 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 1: on the economy. Are you concerned? Well, yes we are, 349 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,679 Speaker 1: but I think that people there's still money that's being spent, 350 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 1: and that money that's being spent I think has to 351 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 1: be smarter. I think it has to go online, and 352 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 1: so they have great numbers um. I think their online 353 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,880 Speaker 1: presence continues to grow. They have a loyal membership as well. 354 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,280 Speaker 1: So I see the same thing out of Target. Even 355 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 1: though worried about retail, yes, worried again about consumer confidence, yes, 356 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,639 Speaker 1: but they have a history of beating their earnings, earnings 357 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,640 Speaker 1: top and bottom line. The back to school looked good. 358 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 1: I really think that. You know, that's another good place 359 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 1: to put money. You understand the story. Don't have to 360 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:52,840 Speaker 1: worry about unforeseen risks and downside risks. Just watch COVID 361 00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 1: and continue to do what you do, which is the 362 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 1: consumer shops David. In these two faces, I feel comfortable. 363 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 1: A couple places you seem less comfortable, and that would 364 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,439 Speaker 1: be kind of what I would call kind of reopening trades. 365 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 1: You have cells on Southwest and Zoom. Is that just 366 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,880 Speaker 1: a call that, hey, Delta is here and you better 367 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,119 Speaker 1: put the brakes on the reopening trade. Not really. I 368 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 1: think there's some more of that in Zoom. I think 369 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 1: it continues to struggle with growth because of the EU 370 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:23,879 Speaker 1: opening trade, but more competitors come into play. Microsoft teams 371 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:28,360 Speaker 1: is is used heavily and is rolling out new webinar 372 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 1: features and rolling out new conference call features, and so 373 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:33,960 Speaker 1: I see go to Connect and Google and other players 374 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 1: there that I don't see them that gross story. Everybody 375 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,680 Speaker 1: was buying them for really turning out and let's face it, 376 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,119 Speaker 1: it's underperformed the S and P FI Earth in this 377 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,679 Speaker 1: case the Russell too. But you know the index if 378 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:49,199 Speaker 1: you will, by about over the last one year, and 379 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,520 Speaker 1: I don't see that bouncing back. That's not the right time. 380 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,440 Speaker 1: Southwest a little bit different. Yeah, there's a COVID story 381 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 1: with all airlines, and all airlines have struggled over the 382 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: last three months. Recently, over the last maybe two or three, 383 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 1: eek is doing okay. But Southwest here you have an 384 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 1: abrupt quick from senior management. Uh, you have some business 385 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 1: travel extreme going on that's not coming back. So I 386 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:15,040 Speaker 1: think that over the long term, I'm not negative on 387 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 1: airlines are reopening there as much as I would say 388 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:23,119 Speaker 1: Southwest with the downside risk, I'd rather own Delta. I 389 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 1: actually traveled for business recently. It was the worst experience 390 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,639 Speaker 1: I have ever had. I never want to do it again, 391 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,119 Speaker 1: but you're probably gonna have to. I will do it 392 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 1: one more time when I moved back to New York. 393 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 1: Until airlines just generally improved, Like, is there any mode 394 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 1: of transportation that's worse than an airline? I would rather 395 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:48,680 Speaker 1: ride this subway than an airline. Just subway rocks. Yeah, 396 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 1: especially I love the four five all right, David, You've 397 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,159 Speaker 1: got to buy on on Exon here? Is this a 398 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,680 Speaker 1: dividend play because I mean again looking at the ten 399 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,959 Speaker 1: year one point four or five. Yes, that's higher than 400 00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,240 Speaker 1: what we've seen recently, but still a very low yield 401 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,800 Speaker 1: and energy. You know, we've got w t I crude 402 00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,479 Speaker 1: oil up at seventy three. It's been ripping. What's your 403 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:11,359 Speaker 1: call there on XX? Yeah, I'm very positive on Xon. 404 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,920 Speaker 1: You have a yield that's hide like you mentioned six 405 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 1: point six percent, what have you plus, so you're getting 406 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,359 Speaker 1: paid all in the stock. I don't see crude going 407 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 1: low work because the supply issues and other things. It's 408 00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:26,959 Speaker 1: up about over the SMPI over the last year and 409 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:30,000 Speaker 1: so though it's cool about the last little while with oil, 410 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,119 Speaker 1: and it does trade in coinsidne there with oil, the 411 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,720 Speaker 1: reality is is x ON I feel like is a 412 00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,879 Speaker 1: very good performer, especially for the risk you're taking. Again, 413 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,880 Speaker 1: what's the downside risk here to x On? It's really 414 00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:45,120 Speaker 1: just oil. There's not much. Governance is great. What they're 415 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,440 Speaker 1: doing is good um. And if we ever get control 416 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,640 Speaker 1: of this stupid virus um, the reality is is that 417 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,359 Speaker 1: there's going to be more demand. So long term, I 418 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,919 Speaker 1: think this is a really good stalk to home. What 419 00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 1: do you make of the big moves and rates, uh 420 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,320 Speaker 1: Dave that we've seen the ten uere yesterday was up 421 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:06,760 Speaker 1: ten BIFs and today another five. Well, I think it 422 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 1: goes to show the concern that investors have, especially the 423 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,840 Speaker 1: institutional investors. Right, so we believe that there is a 424 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 1: shift going to the early deceleration. It's under way. UM, 425 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:22,560 Speaker 1: if you're not looking at your portfolio right now and 426 00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:26,440 Speaker 1: saying how do I manage risk? Then I don't think 427 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 1: you're making your portfolio better for tomorrow because risk is here, 428 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:35,399 Speaker 1: and it's coming um in greater amounts in the future, 429 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:37,600 Speaker 1: and the volatility is going to continue. So I think 430 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,280 Speaker 1: you have to look at what wins in the future, 431 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:44,120 Speaker 1: not necessarily what's win one in the past. All Right, David, 432 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,480 Speaker 1: thank you so much for chatting with us with us. 433 00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,680 Speaker 1: We really appreciate it. David Harden, CEO and chief investment 434 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,960 Speaker 1: officers Summit Global Investments one point eight billion dollars in 435 00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 1: assets on their management. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 436 00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,440 Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews that 437 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. 438 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:08,840 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller, three pt on Fall Sweeney. 439 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,520 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast. You 440 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:13,920 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.