1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Hello. Just a quick note about this episode of Stephanomics. 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: The segment about Israel was recorded before the news this 3 00:00:07,760 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: week that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to form a 4 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: new government. Thanks for listening and enjoy the show. Welcome 5 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the global economy to you. 6 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: My name is Tom Oulick. I'm the chief economist for 7 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:30,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg and I'm filling in for this one week for 8 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:39,159 Speaker 1: your regular and eponymous host, Stephanie Flanders. Back when I 9 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: lived in China, the big concern amongst Chinese economists was 10 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: something they call a horby jen jug, or a currency war. 11 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 1: The fear in Beijing was that the United States was 12 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: going to weaponize its financial system and the big Wall 13 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: Street banks would come to China promising grace and reform, 14 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: but they would deliver chaos and crisis, the kind of 15 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 1: meltdown which China's Asian neighbors experienced in and well, it 16 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 1: turns out those fears were misplaced. There is a conflict 17 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: between the U. S and China, but it's not about currencies. 18 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:19,199 Speaker 1: It's about trade, and that's going to be the focus 19 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: of today's episode. I'll be speaking with Wendy Cutler, who 20 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 1: spent her career as one of the most senior trade 21 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: negotiators in the United States, to get her insiders take 22 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: on how trade negotiations between China and the US could evolve. 23 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: And I'll be catching up with Jenny Leonard, one of 24 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:42,679 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's star trade reporters, to hear what it's like reporting 25 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 1: from the front line of the trade war. Before we 26 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 1: get there, though, we're going to go to a part 27 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,639 Speaker 1: of the world which is more familiar through the lens 28 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 1: of security or human rights than economics. Let's go to Israel, 29 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 1: and here from Ivan Levingstone about some interesting develops in 30 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: the labor market. A few weeks ago, I visited a 31 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:20,400 Speaker 1: coworking space in Jerusalem called biz Max. I toward the 32 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: standard mix of open work areas and smaller glass in rooms, 33 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: complete with minimalists, a core and an espresso machine. On 34 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: first take, it could have been any we work style office, 35 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:36,079 Speaker 1: but there was a key difference. Bis Max is run 36 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 1: for ultra Orthodox Jewish Men or in Hebrew are dem 37 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 1: with a kosher kitchen and religious book lying in the shelves. 38 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:46,959 Speaker 1: It seeks to provide a place for them to get 39 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: businesses off the ground. I went there in late April 40 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 1: to meet with Yetrak Meyer A Jelovski, a thirty one 41 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: year old father of five who runs his own event 42 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 1: planning business called a smata. Every day I am going home. 43 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 1: He's a podcast told me as him unruly like each 44 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 1: as he goes by met me wearing the traditional garb 45 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:18,520 Speaker 1: of hardy Jews, black suit, white shirt, long curls falling 46 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:21,679 Speaker 1: from the corners of his hair. He also brought a 47 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 1: kosher iPad with some restrictive settings that he manages his 48 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 1: company on. He's just as busy as any small business 49 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:32,359 Speaker 1: owner making a go of it, but he also has 50 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 1: to make time for prayer and religious obligations. I have 51 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 1: every day about every day one and a half events, 52 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 1: a big small ones between one twice a week. I 53 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 1: have a wedding, a big wedding game three under portions. 54 00:03:50,840 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 1: Portions was in the big hole, was catering. For good reason, 55 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 1: Israel has earned the nickname startup Nation. The country has 56 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 1: a burgeoning tech sector driving the economy, but below the 57 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 1: surface there's trouble. Growth is stabilizing and productivity is sluggish. 58 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: Because unemployment is near record lows the country needs to 59 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 1: find more workers ideally ones who are highly skilled. There 60 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:26,160 Speaker 1: are two groups economists have zeroed in on because they 61 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:30,039 Speaker 1: participate at a lower rate in the workforce, Ultra Orthodox 62 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:35,840 Speaker 1: men like Eacha and Arab Israeli women. The Hardim present 63 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:40,359 Speaker 1: a particular challenge with their rapid population growth and lower productivity, 64 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: helping them climb in the workforce as a priority that 65 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:48,159 Speaker 1: may only intensifying urgency, and in Israel, surrounded by enemies, 66 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 1: economic challenges become geopolitical ones Without a first rate economy, 67 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 1: it's hard to maintain a first rate military. Each of 68 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 1: success building a business came to spite some challenges. He 69 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 1: got married at age nineteen and soon decided to work 70 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 1: to help provide for his family, but he was locked 71 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: out of some fields because of his religious education. On 72 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,160 Speaker 1: a visit to his home in Jerusalem, he told me 73 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: what it was like getting started In the beginning. It 74 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:20,280 Speaker 1: was very hard because of the it's a low income. 75 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: You have to learn everything by yourself. I didn't learn 76 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 1: ever about the work or any work. Just studied the 77 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:32,159 Speaker 1: town there, and then I went to start the business 78 00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 1: by seeing every even he went to do events and 79 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:39,159 Speaker 1: I was I was standing him by the entrance of 80 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 1: the kitchen took to check out our works. Israel's Harri 81 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 1: Deem are growing part of the population and also a 82 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 1: rising political force. As such, they're an increasingly important block 83 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 1: for Prime Minister Benjamin Netan yahoo in support of his 84 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 1: right wing governing coalitions. As their political influence rises. Where 85 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 1: their demographics strength, that bodes well for the subsidies that 86 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:07,320 Speaker 1: benefit them, like child allowances and scholarships. In a way, 87 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 1: the government is at odds with itself. Political leaders help 88 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:14,039 Speaker 1: protect funding that may discourage work, while others are trying 89 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: to bring Haredim into the labor force, seeing it as 90 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:21,480 Speaker 1: a long term economic issue. At the start of this decade, 91 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 1: government targets were set with the aim of increasing the 92 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:28,559 Speaker 1: employment rate of Haredi men and Arab Israeli women. Arab 93 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:31,720 Speaker 1: women are already close to hitting their goal, but for 94 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: Haredi men the story is different. While they have increasingly 95 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 1: joined the workforce in recent years, progress is stagnating well 96 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 1: below the hope for level. One key reason is a 97 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: cultural emphasis on religious study. I met with Av Weiss, 98 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,240 Speaker 1: an economist and president of the TAB Center for Social 99 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 1: Policy Studies in Israel, to dig into the reasons for 100 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 1: the divergence. See the difference between the the the Haredi 101 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:02,360 Speaker 1: men and the Arab women um is it's got to stem, 102 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: bottom line, from desire. That the desire of the Arab 103 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: pubin um really is to improve their lot, to be 104 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:12,920 Speaker 1: able to do better than than than the past, to 105 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 1: increase your education, to increase your employment. For the Harediman, 106 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: that's just not necessarily the case. While the Haredim are 107 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 1: interested in moving upwards spiritually, Arab Israeli women are focused 108 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 1: on a different kind of upward mobility. Facing challenges including 109 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 1: discrimination and higher rates of poverty, They're making strides and 110 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: education and at least in high school, increasingly studying fields 111 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 1: like engineering that leads to more lucrative employment. Such progress 112 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: has come even amid withering criticism of Israel and the 113 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 1: West for how it treats its Arab citizens, as well 114 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 1: as for the poor economic state of Palestinians in Gaza 115 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 1: and the West Bank. But there are some more positive 116 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 1: stories out there. Kuluta Uti is a twenty nine year 117 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 1: old Arab israel woman from Jaffa with two daughters. While 118 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:06,080 Speaker 1: her parents didn't go to university and she married at 119 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: the age of twenty one, she is now finishing a 120 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 1: degree in political science. In between managing family and studies, 121 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 1: she's the co sea of an organization called Present Tense, 122 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 1: which tries to reduce social gaps in marginalized communities in 123 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: Israel through entrepreneurship. I met her for a morning chat 124 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 1: at a municipal building in Jaffa where her organization host programming, 125 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 1: and she told me about why Arab Israeli women have 126 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 1: been challenged joining the labor force. Have all these expectations, 127 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 1: and you need to to meet all the expectations, and 128 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:40,959 Speaker 1: then you have to choose what exectation you can to meet, 129 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:43,959 Speaker 1: because it's so hard because you need to have a home, 130 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 1: you need to have a get married, and you have children. 131 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: You need to do all of these things and evens. 132 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: And also if you can do a degree and and work, 133 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 1: it's great, but it's hard. It's tougher for for Arab 134 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:01,439 Speaker 1: women with a tight labor market and shortages of engineers. 135 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 1: Israel's future growth. Henderson part on this group. If they succeed, 136 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 1: it will be a real bright spot, but they're not 137 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,319 Speaker 1: there yet. A lot of women really do break the 138 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 1: glass city, but a lot of them also stay at home, 139 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 1: and you can see the stats and it's getting better, 140 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 1: but still it's not in the in the correct fields 141 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 1: that can high tech officials admit that the government's programs 142 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 1: in this area still have a ways to go. Here's 143 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: Julia Eton, head of the Employment and Diversity Administration for 144 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: Israel's Ministry of Labor, Social Affairs and Social Services. It's 145 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 1: very clear if you're not bridging the gap these two 146 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 1: populations and believe it to the the productivity of a general population, 147 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 1: rates of growth of israel economy are not going to 148 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:53,319 Speaker 1: be sufficient to have a normal level of growth and living. 149 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:57,440 Speaker 1: That's why it's crucial for us to succeed. But they're 150 00:09:57,440 --> 00:09:59,959 Speaker 1: not alone here. You have communities, you have their ambition, 151 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 1: you have their beliefs, you have their way of analyzing 152 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 1: the reality. What early mean Israel is a tiny country 153 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 1: that doesn't trade with its neighbors and is in a 154 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 1: state of war with some of them. It's economic edge, 155 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 1: particularly in the world of tech, is a crucial strategic asset. 156 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 1: It provides incentives for countries, including the United States and 157 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 1: those across Africa and Asia, to forge stronger ties with 158 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 1: the Jewish state, and for Prime Minister Netan Yahoo winning 159 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:35,880 Speaker 1: on the economy increases the chances that he can keep 160 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:51,840 Speaker 1: winning period. For Bloomberg News, I'm Ivan Levingstone. I'm delighted 161 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: to be joined for this section by Wendy Cutler. Wendy 162 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 1: is the vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute 163 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: at a former deputy at the US Trade Representative. That's 164 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 1: a lot of words. Basically, what it means is there 165 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 1: are a few people in the world who know more 166 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 1: about trade negotiations than Wendy does. Wendy, thanks for joining us. 167 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 1: Thanks Tom So. Implicit in the Trump administration's approach to 168 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: trade negotiations is the idea that the careful, consensus based 169 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 1: multilateral approach followed by past administrations basically got it wrong 170 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 1: and gave China a free ride. Do you agree with 171 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 1: that assessment? Well, I think over time, various administrations tried 172 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:43,720 Speaker 1: different approaches towards China. I think supporting China's entry into 173 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 1: the w t O was an important move, and as 174 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:50,320 Speaker 1: a result of China joining the w t O, we 175 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 1: saw them significantly lower their terrorists for US and other imports, 176 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:59,440 Speaker 1: as well as revived thousands of regulations and laws, and 177 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: we saw an overall opening. But what didn't occur was 178 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 1: that the reform and market opening that was so vibrant 179 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,679 Speaker 1: in two thousand one when China joined the w t O, 180 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:15,839 Speaker 1: it just didn't continue, particularly in recent years. And furthermore, 181 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:20,199 Speaker 1: the w t O was unable to negotiate new rules 182 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 1: and new terror flowering, which also led to a situation 183 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 1: where the current WTO rules are really old rules and 184 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:32,679 Speaker 1: they don't address the challenging practices that China has brought 185 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:36,719 Speaker 1: to the international training system. So do you think that 186 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 1: calls for this more direct bilateral approach which the Trump 187 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 1: administration is now taking, or if you were calling the shots, 188 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 1: would your first call have been to Brussels and Tokyo 189 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 1: and Seoul and to the w t O and an 190 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 1: attempt to kind of martial a multilateral coalition to tackle 191 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: this challenge. Well. Following China's w t O accession, the 192 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 1: administration tried different administrations trying different approaches to deal with China, 193 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 1: including dialogues, particularly the ones led by the Treasury Department, 194 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:19,079 Speaker 1: the Special These Strategic and Economic Dialogue, as well as 195 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 1: trade dialogues as well, and while some progress was made, 196 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 1: the progress was incremental and the dialogues let left many 197 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 1: frustrated the Obamba administration put a real premium on challenging 198 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 1: Chinese practices that were inconsistent with the w t O 199 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: two dispute settlement in the w t O and scored 200 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 1: some important victories, but still a lot of the problem 201 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:49,960 Speaker 1: problematic practices that China followed continued, so a new approach 202 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 1: was needed, and I think in some respects, President Trump 203 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 1: has gone it right by imposing tariffs, whether I support 204 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:59,680 Speaker 1: them or not, they have brought to China to the 205 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:04,559 Speaker 1: newociating table. However, I think what has been really flawed 206 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 1: in the President's approach to dealing with China is the 207 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 1: fact that we're going it alone. We're relying on unilateral 208 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 1: measures on bilateral negotiations without trying to bring other countries 209 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:23,239 Speaker 1: on board with our approach, who also share similar concerns 210 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 1: that the United States has with China. So I think 211 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 1: we could be doing a much better job working with 212 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 1: our allies and friends both in Asia and around the world, 213 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 1: and together telling China that it needs to change its 214 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 1: practices and pursue more, more market opening um measures. And unfortunately, 215 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: the Trump administration has decided not only to take on China, 216 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 1: but also to take on our friends and allies, and 217 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 1: as a result, trying to establish a multilateral coalition to 218 00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 1: approach China has been very hard to construct. And it's 219 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 1: not just the muscular bilateralism or the muscular unilateralism of 220 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 1: the Trump administration which sets it apart from past administrations. 221 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 1: It's also the personal role which Donald Trump is taking 222 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 1: that that positioning of I'm the only one who makes 223 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 1: the decisions, that public approach with the tweets to declare 224 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 1: policy changes and the lack of predictability. Now you're someone 225 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 1: who's really been at the center of some of the 226 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: most high profile, most delicate trade negotiations which the US 227 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 1: has has conducted in in recent years. And what's your 228 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 1: take on that very personal approach which the president is taking. 229 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 1: Does that strengthen the hand of his negotiators or do 230 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 1: the costs of unpredictability outweigh the benefits. What's kind of 231 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 1: a mixed picture. I think in every negotiation a dose 232 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 1: of unpredictability is useful. If your counterparts think they know 233 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 1: your every move, they'll just game it all out, So 234 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 1: some unpredictability could be useful. Um, but I think the 235 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 1: President has gone way too far on that score. And 236 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 1: as a result, our trading partners are left scratching their heads, 237 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 1: not really knowing what they're being asked to do. Also, 238 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: I think being really public UM, particularly in the final 239 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 1: stages of trade negotiations, is not a great approach. What 240 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 1: I often would find at the end of trade negotiations 241 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 1: that having private conversations would be much more useful once 242 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 1: you're public. And we're seeing this now in the volley 243 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: of words between Beijing and Washington. Both sides are are 244 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 1: setting up high expectations for their domestic publics and what 245 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: they might be able to achieve, and also they're reducing 246 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: their flexibilities to find common ground. Now, maybe this is intentional, 247 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 1: Maybe both sides have decided that they don't want a 248 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:07,399 Speaker 1: deal because they're certainly acting like that. But again, UM, 249 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:12,199 Speaker 1: I think being too public and too hard hitting UM 250 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,679 Speaker 1: in the public with with strong words is not a 251 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:21,040 Speaker 1: great way to bring talks to to closure. That hardening 252 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 1: of rhetoric could bring some real costs to the negotiations. UM, Wendy, 253 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:29,159 Speaker 1: I want to I want to focus the conversation on 254 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 1: one of the specific moments in the last few weeks, 255 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 1: which was that moment where Leo her was on his 256 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: way to Washington, d C. And it seemed like a 257 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 1: deal was going to be signed, and then suddenly we 258 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 1: heard from the US side, No, China's tried to pull 259 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 1: back from there from their previous commitments. They're trying to 260 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 1: pull their chips off the table, and that's not acceptable 261 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:54,920 Speaker 1: to us. So we're not going to sign a deal. 262 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 1: Um now. As someone who's been inside these kind of 263 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:03,160 Speaker 1: trade negotiating sans, what's your take on that. Is it 264 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 1: common to see substantial changes in negotiating position behind the 265 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:11,679 Speaker 1: scenes from one or both sides in the final days 266 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 1: before a deal is signed. Well, unfortunately it is. And 267 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,640 Speaker 1: this is not the first time a country has come 268 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 1: to the negotiating table in the final stage and taken 269 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 1: things off the table, or has moved goalposts and asked 270 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:29,919 Speaker 1: the other and the other country to do more. What 271 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:33,120 Speaker 1: happens at the end of a trade negotiation is both 272 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 1: sides and their capital as I think, look at the 273 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 1: entire deal and try and figure out is this a 274 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:43,640 Speaker 1: deal that will garner public support? Is this deal viable, incredible? 275 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 1: And will I be able to withstand the criticism? And 276 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:49,440 Speaker 1: I think that leads both sides at the end of 277 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:53,199 Speaker 1: a negotiation to do things like taking things off the 278 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 1: table or asking the other country to do more. However, 279 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 1: given the high stakes of this negotiation, and I think 280 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 1: these last minute moves were extremely consequential and really led 281 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:10,679 Speaker 1: the US to question whether China was acting in good faith. 282 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 1: In the US view, China had agreed to many of 283 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 1: the provisions already that it it, you know, took off 284 00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 1: the table in the final stages. Um. And again, I 285 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:27,360 Speaker 1: think I think these issues can I don't think they're insurmountable. 286 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 1: I think with creativity they can be worked through. However, Um, 287 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,400 Speaker 1: if both sides continued to be very public in their 288 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 1: rhetoric and very hard line. Um, with each passing day, 289 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:44,280 Speaker 1: this deal is going to be more difficult to conclude. Wendy, 290 00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:48,479 Speaker 1: let's let's let's throw it forwards. Um, how do you 291 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 1: see this playing? The markets think maybe there's a deal 292 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:56,440 Speaker 1: at Osaka with President Trump and President She sitting down 293 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 1: at that G twenty meetsing. There's also, as you mentioned, 294 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:04,919 Speaker 1: and hardening rhetoric on both sides, the threat of more tariffs, 295 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 1: the threat of sanctions on Chinese firms. It feels like 296 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 1: if we don't get a deal in Osaka, this could 297 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 1: be messy, extended, and expensive for both sides. Um, could 298 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: you handicap those probabilities for US? Yes? So, in my view, 299 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:26,919 Speaker 1: I think both sides right now think that they can 300 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:31,680 Speaker 1: outlive the other with respect to having no trade deal. 301 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:35,240 Speaker 1: The US feels their economy is strong and that China's 302 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 1: economy is weak, and therefore that the US has the 303 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,639 Speaker 1: negotiating leverage. I think China feels that it has the 304 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:45,679 Speaker 1: political and economic tools that it needs to ensure that 305 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 1: its citizens can survive this trade war, and in their view, 306 00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 1: history proves that. But the other development that's going to 307 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 1: happen soon is that on June one, China is going 308 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:01,439 Speaker 1: to impose the next round of it's tariff hikes on 309 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 1: sixty billion dollars worth of US imports, and the full 310 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 1: impact of the US tariff escalation on two billion dollar 311 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:14,160 Speaker 1: worth of Chinese imports will be felt by June one. 312 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: And if you recall the last time the two leaders 313 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,679 Speaker 1: met on December one, in the lead up to that meeting, 314 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 1: those tariffs started to have a very destructive effect on 315 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 1: the both both sides economies. So at last December one, 316 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 1: both leaders when they met, agreed to launch talks for 317 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 1: ninety days, so if you ask me now, I would 318 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 1: My sense is that come the meeting between Presidents Trump 319 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 1: and She on the margins of the G twenty meeting 320 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:48,639 Speaker 1: in Osaka, um perhaps they will agree that both sides 321 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 1: need to resume the negotiations and pick up from where 322 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 1: they where they left the talks um in early May. 323 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,679 Speaker 1: But I don't see the deal coming together by the 324 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,119 Speaker 1: time of the G twenty meeting. I think President Trump 325 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,920 Speaker 1: was very clear when he said in Japan just yesterday 326 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,159 Speaker 1: that he's in no rush to conclude these talks. But 327 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,480 Speaker 1: perhaps a month from now he will feel like he's 328 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:17,040 Speaker 1: in a different position when these tariff the new tariff 329 00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:21,440 Speaker 1: actions start having a real bite for US consumers, workers, 330 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:27,640 Speaker 1: farmers and businesses. Okay, no deal in Osaka, but potentially 331 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 1: an agreement to agree. Wendy Cutler from the Asia Society, 332 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 1: thank you very much for your time and your insights. 333 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 1: Thank you, Tom. The trade team at Bloomberg News is 334 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: one of the scoop eest teams in the newsroom, and 335 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:54,200 Speaker 1: on that team, few are scoopia than Jenny Leonard. Jenny's 336 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 1: joining me in the studio now to talk about her 337 00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:00,920 Speaker 1: experience of reporting the trade war UM and her take 338 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 1: on how things are going to evolve. Jenny, Thanks for 339 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,359 Speaker 1: joining us, Thanks for having me so. Jenny, you've been 340 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,880 Speaker 1: reporting this trade war from the start. Can you give 341 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 1: us a sense of how the mood on the U 342 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 1: S side, the people around the president who are trying 343 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 1: to shape policy, How is the mood in that group 344 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 1: shifted from that first declaration from from the president that 345 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 1: trade wars are good and easy to win to the 346 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:28,879 Speaker 1: situation we find ourselves in today. So actually, I think 347 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,680 Speaker 1: it hasn't evolved that much. The people who are closest 348 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,160 Speaker 1: to the president, I think, would still stand by that 349 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 1: declaration that trade wars are good and easy to win. 350 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 1: At least they still believe that the US has the 351 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,680 Speaker 1: resolve to actually come out as the winner of this. UM. 352 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 1: I would say that the advisors around the President and 353 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,720 Speaker 1: the Vice President and the President himself are hearing more 354 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 1: and more from Republicans on the hill, from farmers from 355 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:59,880 Speaker 1: constituencies that this is starting to bite and they might 356 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 1: not want to see this go on much longer. So 357 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,119 Speaker 1: we might see a shift. We might start seeing a 358 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 1: shift sometime in the near future. But at this point, 359 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:13,440 Speaker 1: I think his advisors. The mood is still very much 360 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,960 Speaker 1: um like it was a couple a couple of months ago, 361 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 1: and can you help us put a bit of a 362 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 1: structure around are thinking on who those advisors are, um 363 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,399 Speaker 1: who are the hawks, Who are the doves? Who are 364 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,679 Speaker 1: the people who see China as a kind of existential threat? 365 00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 1: Who are the people who just want to get a 366 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 1: deal done? So I think we've reported extensively on the 367 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,800 Speaker 1: sort of the two camps, the hawks and the doves, 368 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,880 Speaker 1: and um my sources are very adamant in pointing out 369 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:48,360 Speaker 1: that Peter Navarro, who's the trade advisor that's very far 370 00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,000 Speaker 1: on the hawker side, is not in the same place 371 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,360 Speaker 1: as Ustr Lighthouser, who's also seen as a hawk. But 372 00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 1: Peter Navarre really sees China as an existential threat. He 373 00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 1: wrote books about China. Robert Lighthegh or the U s 374 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:04,640 Speaker 1: TR is more of a trade hog. He's, for you know, decades, 375 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 1: has fought countries unfair subsidies and training practices, and China 376 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 1: obviously is on the forefront of that. But he's not 377 00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:14,360 Speaker 1: obsessed with China as maybe Peter Navarro is. And then 378 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,720 Speaker 1: we have the the doves may be led by Treasury 379 00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:20,360 Speaker 1: Secretary Minuchin, who obviously gets a lot of calls from 380 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:24,119 Speaker 1: Wall Street who, um, would really like to see a 381 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,920 Speaker 1: deal done? Student. And then we have the National security 382 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:33,680 Speaker 1: advisors like John Bolton, who actually their voices has been 383 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:37,199 Speaker 1: elevated a lot in this administration and they have a 384 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 1: say in trade decisions now, which wasn't the case in 385 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:47,159 Speaker 1: previous administrations. And when something like the sanctions on Huawei happened, Jenny, Um, 386 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 1: is that coming, in your sense, from an integrated policy 387 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 1: the trade negotiators aware that those Huawei sanctions are going 388 00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,000 Speaker 1: to drop, or is that coming out of left field 389 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:03,280 Speaker 1: from a different of the administration? Yeah, good question. I 390 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:07,439 Speaker 1: think it's Um, It's a little bit of both. In 391 00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 1: that the Huawei sanction sanctions have been discussed for a 392 00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,399 Speaker 1: long time, so it shouldn't come as a surprise to 393 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:17,320 Speaker 1: anyone on the trade team that someone like John Bolton 394 00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 1: has been pushing for that. But then when it actually happened, uh, 395 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,640 Speaker 1: last week or two weeks ago, you know, our reporting 396 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:29,959 Speaker 1: showed that everyone was overwhelmed with actually rolling out and 397 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 1: implementing that those sanctions because it did come out of nowhere. 398 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:38,320 Speaker 1: Too many people who weren't involved in these discussions that 399 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 1: John Bolton had with the President about this and which 400 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,439 Speaker 1: group do you put the president in? Is he an 401 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,199 Speaker 1: instinctive member of one group or is he moving between 402 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:49,320 Speaker 1: them depending on circumstances. Yeah, it really depends on the 403 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,960 Speaker 1: day for the president. Um. You know, a good example 404 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,119 Speaker 1: was last week when he was in Japan, um Or 405 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 1: when he left for Japan, he was talking about Huawei 406 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:03,439 Speaker 1: and how there's really a big national security risk and 407 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,640 Speaker 1: how that's really a problem, and in the next sentence 408 00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 1: he totally undermined what he had just said and what 409 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,680 Speaker 1: his national security advisors want him to say by saying, well, 410 00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:14,840 Speaker 1: we might wrap this into some kind of trade deal 411 00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:19,120 Speaker 1: sometime soon. And so you know, he's really swinging. And 412 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,120 Speaker 1: we've known this about the President for a while now, 413 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,359 Speaker 1: that he he likes these policy debates and having them 414 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 1: play out in front of him. Um, and he sides 415 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,919 Speaker 1: with whoever you know, he wants to side in that moment, 416 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,560 Speaker 1: and he changes his mind often, which keeps all of 417 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: his advisors on their toes. For sure, that unpredictability from 418 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 1: the president, as we heard from Wendy Cutler, um potentially 419 00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 1: an advantage at some points in the negotiation, but also 420 00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 1: evidently coming at some costs, including to his own side. Um, Jenny, 421 00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:54,480 Speaker 1: let's throw this forwards. Tell us about your expectation or 422 00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:58,239 Speaker 1: how we should think about that She Trump meeting at 423 00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:00,920 Speaker 1: the G twenty the mark it's right that we could 424 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:02,959 Speaker 1: get a deal there, or do you see that as 425 00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:08,000 Speaker 1: excessively optimistic. I think the markets are always a little 426 00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:12,640 Speaker 1: more optimistic than reality. Uh. I think a deal might 427 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 1: not be possible in the next month, because that would 428 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,680 Speaker 1: really take you know, Lightheiser and Leo Hood to sit 429 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 1: down again, to go over you know, basically go to 430 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:28,520 Speaker 1: the status quo before China renect on on its commitments, 431 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,400 Speaker 1: and I don't really see that happening. At the same time, 432 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:35,280 Speaker 1: I would say anything can happen when President Trump gets 433 00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,719 Speaker 1: in the room with President She. We've seen this multiple times. 434 00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 1: Trump reversed his ban on on z T, the telecom 435 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,959 Speaker 1: equipment's maker, last year at the request of Shooting Ping. 436 00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 1: So I wouldn't rule anything out. But a deal seems 437 00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 1: a little bit too ambitious, Okay. Personalities of the two 438 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 1: leaders crucial as we prepare for that G twenty meeting. 439 00:28:56,080 --> 00:29:05,240 Speaker 1: Jenny Lennon, thank you so much. Thank you well. We 440 00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 1: toyed with renaming it Tom and Omics, but producers Scott 441 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 1: Lamman advised me that that was a bad idea for 442 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:16,040 Speaker 1: a single episode and potentially a career ending mistake for 443 00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:20,520 Speaker 1: me personally. So thanks for listening to Stephanomics. Stephanie Flanders 444 00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,400 Speaker 1: will return next week with more on the ground insights 445 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:26,800 Speaker 1: into the global economy. In the meantime, you can find 446 00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:30,320 Speaker 1: us on the Bloomberg Terminal website, APT or wherever you 447 00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 1: get your podcasts. We would love if you took the 448 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,360 Speaker 1: time to rate and review our show so it can 449 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:39,800 Speaker 1: reach more listeners. For more news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics, 450 00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,280 Speaker 1: follow at Economics on Twitter, and you can also find 451 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 1: me at Tom Marlick. The story in this episode was 452 00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 1: reported and written by Ivan Levingstone. It was produced by 453 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:54,080 Speaker 1: Magnus Henrickson and edited by Scott Lanman, who is also 454 00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:58,240 Speaker 1: the executive producer of Stephanomics Special thanks to Wendy Cutler, 455 00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:02,480 Speaker 1: Jenny Leonard, and Michael Arnold. Francesco Levi is the head 456 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Podcasts. H