Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz. Daily we bring you
Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com,
Speaker 1: and of course, on the Bloomberg terminal. UH. The Associated
Speaker 1: Press does the best job on exit polls. The Wall
Speaker 1: Street Journals got it in real time, which is fascinating.
Speaker 1: Which best describes your family's financial situation? Falling behind Democrats
Speaker 1: Republicans a big majority, sixty two percent. That's a good
Speaker 1: leading to David Kelly, chief Global strategist at JP Morgan
Speaker 1: Asset Management. So let's dove tell this into tomorrow's inflation report.
Speaker 1: David Kelly, when does inflation ebb away to help the
Speaker 1: sixty two percent of republic who say they're falling behind.
Speaker 1: I think inflation has already peaked. I think it is
Speaker 1: going to gradually full. We're looking for a six tenth
Speaker 1: or maybe even seven tenths tomorrow because of a rebound
Speaker 1: in energy. But on a year of year basis, we
Speaker 1: might be down to seven point nine or an eight,
Speaker 1: and by March I think we're going to be down
Speaker 1: to something with a five handle on the year of
Speaker 1: year basis. Inflation is falling, but to your point, nobody's
Speaker 1: going to notice, because if you look at political leaning
Speaker 1: in this country redetermines how people feel about the economy.
Speaker 1: People are, you know, if your Republicans always feel worse
Speaker 1: about the economy when there's a Democrat in the White
Speaker 1: House and vice versa. Um Americans believe the economy is
Speaker 1: in recession, even though if you talk to any economists,
Speaker 1: they will tell you, well, that's not actually true right now.
Speaker 1: Might be next year, but it's not true right now.
Speaker 1: So how people feel about the economy and what it
Speaker 1: actually is doing are two completely separate things, David, among
Speaker 1: the wealthy and among the halves and decidedly a broad
Speaker 1: part of America that have not they've got to recover
Speaker 1: from a bear market, disinflation and a decided bear market
Speaker 1: and bonds. What's your two thousand twenty three strategy to
Speaker 1: begin a financial recovery. Well, I mean it's certainly that
Speaker 1: people are being you know, have been hurt by the
Speaker 1: rise of price that we've seen and also a fiscal
Speaker 1: drag and things have sowed down a lot. So there's
Speaker 1: a lot of hurt out there in main street for investors.
Speaker 1: Though the most important thing that happened this year isn't inflation,
Speaker 1: it isn't fiscal drag. It's in fact, the prices fell.
Speaker 1: Prices fell for bonds, prices felt for stocks. So we're
Speaker 1: just putting out a long term capital market assumptions. We
Speaker 1: just released some yesterday. Uh and you know, we're looking
Speaker 1: for about an eight percent long term gain out of
Speaker 1: equities in the US, more than ten percent in Europe,
Speaker 1: emerging markets in Japan. So I'd say this is a
Speaker 1: time to be overweight equities for a long term investor. Uh.
Speaker 1: And you know, I think bonds are back. I think
Speaker 1: it makes sense to have a you know, a slightly
Speaker 1: below average allocation, but a pretty strong allocation fixed inco
Speaker 1: So this is time to get invested. I know people
Speaker 1: feel miserable, but as I said, there's a difference between
Speaker 1: what's actually going on the economic dynamics and what people
Speaker 1: feel given the extraordinarily partisan nature of news coverage in
Speaker 1: this country. David, do you think that there is anything
Speaker 1: in tomorrow's CPI report from the United States that could
Speaker 1: have changed your assessment to go long bonds to go
Speaker 1: along equities. Well, I've been looking. I'll be looking at
Speaker 1: service sector inflation outside of the housing market. So if
Speaker 1: we see a big bump in things like uh, you know,
Speaker 1: inflation and restaurants inflation, food in general, in a lot
Speaker 1: of household services, that that would worry me a little bit.
Speaker 1: But I think that they know we're looking at all
Speaker 1: these numbers, and what they're telling us is that outside
Speaker 1: of shelter, inflation is gradually falling here. So that makes
Speaker 1: it very it's very hard for me to be positive
Speaker 1: on or to worry about bonds that much. And the
Speaker 1: one other thing, you know, the one thing that's coming
Speaker 1: out of this all is there will be no fiscal
Speaker 1: stimulus before so at some stage of this economy weakens
Speaker 1: a falls into recession, the only game in town will
Speaker 1: be the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy.
Speaker 1: And I think that's that's the big takeaway from gridlock
Speaker 1: is gridlock means a more um more dovish fed and
Speaker 1: down the road if they choose to count if they
Speaker 1: choose to turn dovish, and this is going to be
Speaker 1: the big debate through next year. David, Thank you, so much, sir,
Speaker 1: as always David Kelly, a JP Morgan Asset Management. Right
Speaker 1: now we dive to tomorrow morning at eight thirty and
Speaker 1: an incredibly important inflation report. We do this this measurement
Speaker 1: of the deepest market foreign exchange. Ibramabari joins his chief
Speaker 1: currency strategists. It's city group inflation. I get disinflation. Abraham,
Speaker 1: what will that do to the resilient dollar? Well, we
Speaker 1: think it's a key driver for the dollar and for
Speaker 1: broader markets as it's as it's been all year, and
Speaker 1: we've seen this really big shifting sentiment on the dollar
Speaker 1: relative to last week, even between Thursday and Friday last week,
Speaker 1: and all eyes are now on on tomorrow's reading. Our
Speaker 1: economists have a slightly lower forecast than than the consensus.
Speaker 1: Something like a point four month on month increased in
Speaker 1: in core CPI after two point six is about the
Speaker 1: tenth below the consensus forecast if that was to to pass.
Speaker 1: We we we think that recent dollar seller has further
Speaker 1: to go. So we've had two and a half percent.
Speaker 1: We think that you can get another two hustle down
Speaker 1: in the dollar as global even in framing around a
Speaker 1: major pair. Let's take Euro dollar I mean yen as
Speaker 1: its own beast right now. But an euro dollar is
Speaker 1: it a big figure move? If we get a disinflation
Speaker 1: in America, how many parts of the euro will go
Speaker 1: through parody? And up up? One oh one, one, o two,
Speaker 1: one five. Absolutely, So, as as you just highlighted, we're
Speaker 1: hanging above parody again, and we think that if we
Speaker 1: get a low inflation lumber tomorrow, we will easily pass
Speaker 1: through one oh one. But I think one or four
Speaker 1: is probably the next the next place to focus in
Speaker 1: in that in that scenario. So really quite a different
Speaker 1: picture from where we were last week, and it's reflecting
Speaker 1: a little bit more China optimism again, the idea that
Speaker 1: maybe the Fed can take the foot off of the
Speaker 1: gas peddle, but really also the luxury of looking into
Speaker 1: next year and and sort of allowing allowing investors, we
Speaker 1: worked this from David Kelly just now, allowing investors to
Speaker 1: maybe see a little bit more downside risk in the
Speaker 1: dollar over time as the global economy normalizers. And we
Speaker 1: think that's premature, but nevertheless, I think that will be
Speaker 1: the theme if we get low inflation tomorrow. Abraham, let's
Speaker 1: getting the ways just a little bit I'm not convinced
Speaker 1: that the end of hiking is the same as the
Speaker 1: end of technic And the reason I say that is
Speaker 1: because even if they end hiking interest rates and they pause,
Speaker 1: but the economy rolls out and they don't do anything, Abraham,
Speaker 1: isn't the FED still tightening in that environment? Isn't that
Speaker 1: ultimately the story when you really think about it. Absolutely,
Speaker 1: we're exactly on on the same page. And that's particularly
Speaker 1: relevant for the equity market. Usually have these two phases
Speaker 1: of the bear market. The first one is monitor policies tightening,
Speaker 1: and you get the D rating the seconds earnings compressed,
Speaker 1: and we get more and more signs of that, and
Speaker 1: you see the continuation usually the majority of the of
Speaker 1: the bear market, and that's very much our expectation. Now.
Speaker 1: When it comes to effects and and rates, you also
Speaker 1: have two stages. And the first stage is when do
Speaker 1: global rates peak or US rates peak? And that's usually
Speaker 1: around the time of the of the last FED rate tips.
Speaker 1: So I think that last FED rate type does have
Speaker 1: importance for rights markets. Usually also is a tradeable dollar correction,
Speaker 1: but it's usually not the dollar turn that comes much
Speaker 1: later when you see a turnaround bottoming and growth expectations.
Speaker 1: Is that source for the dollar turn abroad then, and
Speaker 1: not domestic? That's a it's a it's a very it's
Speaker 1: a very good question, and I think right now we
Speaker 1: may think so. Again, we think it's it's premature, but
Speaker 1: the focus has of late being maybe some expectation of
Speaker 1: an easing of restrictions and not really reopening, but a
Speaker 1: gradual easing of restrictions and the bottoming of sentiment around China.
Speaker 1: There is maybe a little bit of hope that some
Speaker 1: of the market concerns around conflict related tensions could also
Speaker 1: debate over time. So I do think that when it
Speaker 1: comes to the durable turn, the emphasis will be outside
Speaker 1: of the US. When it comes to the tightening, the
Speaker 1: FED is obviously the most important factor globally. Just to
Speaker 1: underscore the point that you just made, ever him, are
Speaker 1: you saying that this election at gridlock does not do
Speaker 1: anything one way or another to the dollar and that
Speaker 1: ultimately it has to be the drivers of the FED,
Speaker 1: but more so even the stockpiles of national casts over
Speaker 1: in Europe. Yes, generally, generally, I would agree. We think
Speaker 1: that inflation, broader risk sentiment, global growth of far more
Speaker 1: important drivers of the dollar than this specific or even
Speaker 1: more generally political considerations in the US. Historically, the dollar
Speaker 1: did appreciate post midterm elections into into year end. It
Speaker 1: is a it is a risk preview for US assets
Speaker 1: that tends to dissolve. You do tend to see an
Speaker 1: equity price increase as well, but we don't think we'll
Speaker 1: see a particularly decisive outcome, and this year isn't like most.
Speaker 1: We have much bigger developments in the macro landscape outside
Speaker 1: of US politics, and again inflation is probably the first
Speaker 1: in global growth the second. So we don't think that
Speaker 1: there will be durable implications from the midterm elections, even
Speaker 1: when we know the full results, and of course waiting
Speaker 1: because some important ones. Ibriham, We're speaking with Mark McCormick
Speaker 1: of TV Securities yesterday and he was talking about the
Speaker 1: same thing that you were, some of the rumors of
Speaker 1: China perhaps reopening that have just been that rumors, right,
Speaker 1: that have not really come to fruition in any meaningful way.
Speaker 1: He was saying that if there is some sort of
Speaker 1: material reopening, you could see a five to six percent
Speaker 1: weakening in the dollar through year end and even more
Speaker 1: through the remainder of three. How likely do you see
Speaker 1: that scenario, And in the off chance that it happens,
Speaker 1: do you see a commensurate type of weakening. So we don't.
Speaker 1: We don't expect a breakthrough in reopening into year end
Speaker 1: and and even seasonally that would be that would be
Speaker 1: hard to imagine. That being said, I think that idea
Speaker 1: that investors position for next year, and generally speaking, particularly
Speaker 1: longer term investors would like to be exposed to cheap
Speaker 1: assets and and maybe high high carrying assets. So from
Speaker 1: both of those perspectives that the dollar doesn't look as
Speaker 1: attractive as it has has a year. So if inflation
Speaker 1: and the FED allow investors to position in that way,
Speaker 1: then we could see again a continuation and maybe not
Speaker 1: five or six percent, but at least the two or
Speaker 1: three that I mentioned could follow from a soft soft
Speaker 1: CPI reading. But I do also want to emphasize what
Speaker 1: we've seen over the last week, particularly with China related assets.
Speaker 1: BO wasn't so much counting on a big reopening in
Speaker 1: the short term. It was pricing out some of the
Speaker 1: extreme pessimism that we've seen, and when it comes to
Speaker 1: China specifically, obviously the big asset price declines that followed
Speaker 1: the latest China Party Congress, and that's a bigger theme
Speaker 1: across markets, big risk reduction away from the big themes
Speaker 1: that we saw this year. And there was obviously all
Speaker 1: the strength people declined in equity markets, but even in
Speaker 1: rates markets, we've seen rates volatility come down and at
Speaker 1: the margint rates come down over the last two days.
Speaker 1: So it's it's mostly risk reduction so far. Abraham Fancy
Speaker 1: for Familist today, Abraham Rachmary there of City, Let's drive
Speaker 1: it forward. I want to do this through the show today,
Speaker 1: even as we look to inflation tomorrow and of course
Speaker 1: what we see an economics financial investment. On this global
Speaker 1: day we go to Washington. Henrietta Trades, director of Economic Policy.
Speaker 1: Vada Partners has helped so much in the recent days. Henrietta,
Speaker 1: we all have our individual statistic mind comes from the
Speaker 1: wonderful Associated Press Exit Pulse service that they do the
Speaker 1: depth of it. Then, in Florida, Latinos voted fifty two
Speaker 1: percent for the GOP. Is the Latino expansion happening much
Speaker 1: much quicker than anybody believed. Good morning, Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: I think that in Florida you're seeing that expansion but
Speaker 1: it's not necessarily the case elsewhere. I'm appoint to Arizona
Speaker 1: and Nevada, um as two states that also have signs
Speaker 1: of Latino populations that are not mirroring mirroring that trend
Speaker 1: right now. So I think it's isolated work, considering basically
Speaker 1: that every Republican on the East coast moved to Florida
Speaker 1: over COVID, and that's what you're seeing right now. Very
Speaker 1: positive for the Santas, is very positive for Rubio, but
Speaker 1: not necessarily for Republicans elsewhere. What does your capital look
Speaker 1: like a month from now, well even two months, let's
Speaker 1: go out past the lame duck session. What does the
Speaker 1: Washington you know so well look like they're gonna be tired?
Speaker 1: Because the Lame Duck is going to be insane? Is
Speaker 1: my expectation, UM, now that Republicans have uh not one
Speaker 1: in a red wave, I wouldn't even call it a
Speaker 1: red ripple at this point. It was the worst showing
Speaker 1: for a minority party that I can think of, um
Speaker 1: since two thousand and two, and that one required an
Speaker 1: Act of war. UM. I think that the two thousand
Speaker 1: and twenty three Congress is gonna be lucky if they
Speaker 1: have a decided speaker and it's gonna be very difficult
Speaker 1: to govern. So that's optimistic for the lame duck session.
Speaker 1: We could now possibly see the dead ceiling, but it's
Speaker 1: gonna be tough. And Lisa, you brought this up earlier.
Speaker 1: I'm assuming McCarthy's a shoeing I'm wrong, right, Well, that's
Speaker 1: what I was gonna ask Henrietta. How much is this
Speaker 1: really up for grabs? What is the big question in
Speaker 1: your mind? We don't have the final votelies in the
Speaker 1: House yet, but he could be as many as eight
Speaker 1: vote shy of becoming speaker next year. It requires two
Speaker 1: hundred and eighteen votes no matter how you get them. Um,
Speaker 1: and it could be that some Democrats cross the line
Speaker 1: to vote for him. I sincerely doubt that the McCarthy,
Speaker 1: he's going to have a lot of people coming from
Speaker 1: his thought, namely Jim Jordan's. What does this say about
Speaker 1: Donald Trump as a leader of the Republican Party that
Speaker 1: the American voters are not going to vote for him
Speaker 1: the third time either? I think this was a very
Speaker 1: problematic night for Donald Trump. UM. I know he's set
Speaker 1: to declare on the fifteenth or that's what he's been saying.
Speaker 1: But I wouldn't be surprised if he reassesses um after
Speaker 1: he makes any kind of declaration. He's got ten days
Speaker 1: to file with the FBC if he wants to seriously
Speaker 1: campaign again. He is down on fundraising against the Santis.
Speaker 1: He's down in a in Republicans support by seven points
Speaker 1: versus the last time he ran. He's down by twelve
Speaker 1: points with independence. Uh, it would be ill advised, and
Speaker 1: I imagine he'll be hearing that from a lot of
Speaker 1: folks today. When you looked at the exit polse Henrietta,
Speaker 1: everyone was concerned about the economy. That was the first
Speaker 1: and foremost concerned, inflation being the pre eminent issue there.
Speaker 1: How much does this really speak to other drivers of
Speaker 1: people to the polls, potentially some of the social issues
Speaker 1: or other concerns, not necessarily what typically people vote for,
Speaker 1: which is the pocket book exactly. I mean, you're looking
Speaker 1: at a percent inflation five dollar gasoline and you're still
Speaker 1: going to keep the majority party in Congress. It is
Speaker 1: a huge referendum. Republicans need to focus on serious issues
Speaker 1: and have serious answers to the American public about how
Speaker 1: they're going to get bring gas prices down. It's not
Speaker 1: enough to just rail against whatever the Democrats try to do.
Speaker 1: The spr release obviously has worked to an extent, and
Speaker 1: voters are a lot smarter than I think Republicans are
Speaker 1: giving them credit for um, and that's gonna be something
Speaker 1: that Republicans need to reassess today. Again, if you're gonna
Speaker 1: come in to an election as the minority party and
Speaker 1: not win the Senate outright or the House outright, and
Speaker 1: perhaps have the lowest show out in an a percent
Speaker 1: inflation environment, you need to really reassess your message. And
Speaker 1: we had it just quickly. What time does Biden announced
Speaker 1: that he's running. Here's the question of the I'll be honest,
Speaker 1: I think if Donald Trump does not run, Biden will
Speaker 1: also not run, and we could be facing a situation
Speaker 1: in America that is unprecedented where we have two human
Speaker 1: beings that could run again the both choose not to.
Speaker 1: I think Biden's decision depends on Trump's decision, and like
Speaker 1: they said, I think there will be some serious reassessing
Speaker 1: going on a Team Trump today. There should be. That
Speaker 1: decision comes in November fifte at least we're expecting it
Speaker 1: to Henriettes, Are you suggesting that it might not come
Speaker 1: about at all? I mean, I know I'm wildly out
Speaker 1: of consensus on this, but it's been my view for
Speaker 1: a while that the polling and the fundraising dollars are
Speaker 1: sending a message that President Trump cannot win again. I
Speaker 1: think last night proved it again. I think he's facing
Speaker 1: serious threats from De Santis. Um. We saw his uper
Speaker 1: Secretary State, Mike Pompeo come out in favor of De
Speaker 1: Santis in his own way. We see the Vice President
Speaker 1: Pence is also preparing to run. The very next day,
Speaker 1: he's dropping his book and holding a town hall. Um.
Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be a lot of challenges within
Speaker 1: the Republican Party. And readA thank you Henridda tries that
Speaker 1: invite of honestly or someone expert at this is Laura Ray, In,
Speaker 1: chief US economist at FS Investments Law. I really want
Speaker 1: to drill on inflation as we've been doing politics all morning.
Speaker 1: Do you presume that disinflation is rapid and suddenly or
Speaker 1: is there going to be a duration to our disinflationary trend.
Speaker 1: I definitely am in the camp where I think inflation
Speaker 1: may have peaked, but boy, the descent is going to
Speaker 1: be gradual, and it's going to be far from steady. Um.
Speaker 1: I think at the end of the day, you're looking
Speaker 1: at key components which are now sort of the cat
Speaker 1: is out of the bag. They are significantly higher. You're
Speaker 1: seeing it across sectors. It's not just sort of one uh,
Speaker 1: you know area the weekend cherry pick like it was
Speaker 1: on the way up. I think maybe that's the best
Speaker 1: way to express it. On the way up, we were
Speaker 1: able to really pick out clear single drivers. On the
Speaker 1: way back down, the picture is much more uneven and
Speaker 1: much more uncertain. Should the fellow reserved care about rent
Speaker 1: and home ownership statistics because that's the kind of inflation
Speaker 1: that makes people go to their bosses and say, my
Speaker 1: rent just one up ten percent. I want a ten
Speaker 1: percent increase. And even if that number has come down
Speaker 1: to five, even if it's come down to three percent,
Speaker 1: that is significantly higher than inflation and their target inflation.
Speaker 1: I think increasingly, going forward, while we will still focus
Speaker 1: very heavily on the CPI numbers, we're gonna start focusing
Speaker 1: on the wage numbers. You know, that's already something everybody
Speaker 1: is watching, but you know, there's no way to declare
Speaker 1: victory on inflation when wages are at four or five percent.
Speaker 1: That also is much higher than the FED wants to see. Laura,
Speaker 1: we were just speaking with Emory Herdern about the election
Speaker 1: and she was saying, yes, inflation was at the forefront
Speaker 1: of people's minds, but they still have jobs. They still
Speaker 1: aren't concerned about their chances of being employed. When does
Speaker 1: that change? So this is one of the key issues
Speaker 1: that I get all the time. How's the economy doing?
Speaker 1: And while people look at growth that feel like it's
Speaker 1: stagnant on the jobs front, we are so racing ahead
Speaker 1: on all cylinders with an incredibly strong jobs market. So
Speaker 1: I think that, you know, the jobs market is the
Speaker 1: lagging indicator. I think the jobs markets stays strong until
Speaker 1: the middle of next year. I put the economy on
Speaker 1: solid footing for the first half of next year, and
Speaker 1: I think the FED is going to have to continue
Speaker 1: to raise rates past what markets currently anticipate is their
Speaker 1: sort of finish line a little over five percent. For
Speaker 1: the FED, I think they may have to go further,
Speaker 1: and I think they're gonna want to wait and see
Speaker 1: the labor market really break here's the problem. Given the
Speaker 1: last downturn, the company is are going to be more
Speaker 1: cautious about laying off workers. And you know, you have
Speaker 1: what the headlines in in Silicon Valley right now is
Speaker 1: very different from what you're seeing across small businesses, across
Speaker 1: every business really on a week by week basis in
Speaker 1: the US. And we were just speaking actually with Neil
Speaker 1: Richardson of ADP about exactly this, that the tech companies
Speaker 1: are a very small subset, and we've been arguing about
Speaker 1: whether this is the beginning though of something broader, or
Speaker 1: if this really is just a specific issue to the
Speaker 1: tech sector. Where do you see the job losses broadening
Speaker 1: out in the middle of next year. How substantial will
Speaker 1: that be given the reluctance that you just spoke about
Speaker 1: of companies to cut staff. I think, you know, when
Speaker 1: you look at the fact that we've lost so many
Speaker 1: of the sort of lower product we're still hiring back
Speaker 1: a lot of the quote unquote lower productivity jobs. I
Speaker 1: think one of the problems there has been significant migration
Speaker 1: due to the pandemic. You still have localities where so
Speaker 1: many people have moved. You can't get the service jobs
Speaker 1: hired fast enough. To accommodate the fact that some of
Speaker 1: these populations have really swelled. So I think that this
Speaker 1: match continues to keep pressure on the labor market to
Speaker 1: stay very strong. I mentioned this in one of the
Speaker 1: recent hours Laura, let me do it again? And the
Speaker 1: AP exit polls, which are voluminous and really really informative,
Speaker 1: they show this massive divide over the question are you
Speaker 1: confident you can get the next job? And Republicans are
Speaker 1: less confident. Let's call it rural, let's call it exurban,
Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it. But is there two
Speaker 1: America's that are a job economy? And does the FED
Speaker 1: have to react to two America's or one America? So,
Speaker 1: you know, this is a critical question. First of all,
Speaker 1: the unemployment rate is low all over the place. And
Speaker 1: when I say that, obviously there's divergence in localities between
Speaker 1: the unemployment rates, but overall it's lower than it was, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, during the pandemic, and it's really come down significantly,
Speaker 1: matching where we were a pre pandemic. I think the
Speaker 1: real issue is that the FED doesn't have the luxury
Speaker 1: of possibly considering two America's. Their policies are not targeted enough,
Speaker 1: so at the end of the day, they're looking at this,
Speaker 1: you know, broad average, and I think that what they
Speaker 1: have shown that they want to do is to keep
Speaker 1: the job market strong enough so that hopefully it can
Speaker 1: over time pull some of the localities that may be
Speaker 1: struggling in line with some of the better localities. But
Speaker 1: you know, it's hard to say if that if that
Speaker 1: focus on a really strong labor market's going to change.
Speaker 1: I think they've shown that it has to if they
Speaker 1: want to be on top of inflation. At least. We
Speaker 1: saw this yesterday with Welcher Vermont. If you go across
Speaker 1: route for through the ski districts and all that, and
Speaker 1: if you end over in White River Junction, you ended
Speaker 1: over in a near depression years ago. It was run
Speaker 1: down in brutal. Their unemployment rate is two now and
Speaker 1: shift and you've seen this pretty dramatically. But I was
Speaker 1: thinking about large, as said Tom, and this idea that
Speaker 1: if you start to see the layoffs in the middle
Speaker 1: of next year. Since we're in Washington, d C. Talking
Speaker 1: about politics, what does that do to shape the narrative
Speaker 1: heading into it will be to me that and this
Speaker 1: goes to the idea of what will Biden do what
Speaker 1: will Trump do, but it will be tick by tick
Speaker 1: by tick. Well, you know, but Lara is talking about
Speaker 1: and Lara love your sense of this that you don't
Speaker 1: think that the unemployment rate could rise all that much.
Speaker 1: Where do you think it's headed? Where where do we
Speaker 1: need to go? What kind of pain threshold are you
Speaker 1: expecting the FED to acknowledge in order to get inflation
Speaker 1: back to their target pretty significantly higher? Um, I think
Speaker 1: we're headed to somewhere around five cent um. The FED
Speaker 1: is notoriously bad at micromanaging where the unemployment rate goes.
Speaker 1: But just simply, you know, we are in a different
Speaker 1: labor market than we were twenty years ago when the
Speaker 1: FED started fine tuning the wage Phillips curve models that
Speaker 1: they have and that they so closely linked to inflation.
Speaker 1: The reality is that you know, markets have have had
Speaker 1: to in companies that had to come to terms with
Speaker 1: the fact that you can't just flip a switch and
Speaker 1: get these employees back in the seat, and that I think,
Speaker 1: you know, Tom was talking about demographics earlier. I just
Speaker 1: think it's the often ignored tectonic plates that drive a
Speaker 1: lot of these factors, and I think it's one reason
Speaker 1: why it's going to cause the risk of a FED
Speaker 1: overshoot because they are going to continue to have to
Speaker 1: step on the break much harder to move that unemployment
Speaker 1: rate in the labor market conditions. Laura, Thank you, Laura
Speaker 1: Ryan the of FS Investments. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to
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Speaker 1: And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud,
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Speaker 1: Tom keene In. This is Bloomberg