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Welcome to 24 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 1: the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I 25 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:33,040 Speaker 1: am Chad Noman, Action Network, but we got a lot 26 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 1: to get to and I'm super excited about it to 27 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:38,839 Speaker 1: be joined by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional 28 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter. We're finally talking a lot of football, 29 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:47,320 Speaker 1: my man. It's gonna be football from here on out. 30 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: Rock and roll, my man. Now, this is the best. 31 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 1: That's literally every room in my house has a TV 32 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 1: going for the next month and a half and it's 33 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 1: just NFL Network. It's never any b roll of just 34 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 1: guys practicing in shorts and then talking about it. It's 35 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 1: truly my favorite time. I just wake up and watch football. Well, 36 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 1: listen what we're going to talk about right now with 37 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 1: my other bff, uh, my sworn enemy from Convince me, 38 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 1: the host of so many things we do at Action Network, 39 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 1: including the Fantasy Flex podcast. Um, Chris Raybon. What's up? 40 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 1: We got a lot to talk about because preseason games 41 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 1: are coming up. Uh. I believe it was uh, a 42 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 1: prominent gambling ambassador who goes by the name of Trey 43 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: Wingo that said, Uh, who would bother betting on preseason? Well, 44 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:44,959 Speaker 1: a lot of people, because preseason is a great way 45 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 1: for people to if they are thinking wisely about it, 46 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 1: to find a little bit of an advantage. Um. And 47 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: then I want to talk about season long player props, Raybon, 48 00:02:56,480 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: So first let's talk about preseason, because there have been 49 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 1: some changes. Like it used to be every wise guy 50 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 1: knew you bet the third game at the preseason, you 51 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: can't really do that anymore with the changes. Uh, explain 52 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 1: a little bit about how bree season betting for both 53 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: of you, Simon and ray Bound. But Raybond will start 54 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:20,679 Speaker 1: with you. How has it changed in recent years, especially 55 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: with the reduced schedule. I just think that a lot 56 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: of coaches don't like, they don't put too much stock 57 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:31,919 Speaker 1: in the preseason. They're they're just looking to kind of 58 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: go over certain schemes, see certain players, but no one's 59 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 1: really game planning. And a lot of coaches now don't 60 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 1: even treat any of the games like the dress rehearsal. 61 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 1: But I don't mind that at all because I actually 62 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 1: you think that I rather bet the more you know, 63 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: the more obscure rosters. I think there's a lot more variance. 64 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: I think the market, um, it gets over confident, and 65 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 1: I just think you can have kind of specialized knowledge 66 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 1: that is going to pay off, even more so than 67 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 1: in the regular season when the market is just so sharp. 68 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 1: In the regular season, there's so much money coming in. 69 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 1: So I do think there's an edge, but it's a 70 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:13,120 Speaker 1: little different as far as how I approach it, Like 71 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: I'm not necessarily trying to handicap the whole slate. I'm 72 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:21,359 Speaker 1: like picking my spots. I'm I'm I'm reading news and 73 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 1: watching news all week, and I'm trying to pick my spots. 74 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 1: Probably bet more trends in the preseason because there's just 75 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 1: they're just so much variants, and you know, even just 76 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:34,719 Speaker 1: things as simple as like fading the public is um. 77 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: You know, certain following certain line moves like it can 78 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: be very profitable in the preseason. That's not really true 79 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 1: in the regular season. UM, but there's just so many unknowns. Um, 80 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 1: even for the books. I think setting these lines, there's 81 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,920 Speaker 1: so many unknown So I think it can really pay 82 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: off to kind of walk into the beat beat reporters 83 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 1: and the practice reports and understand you know the first, second, 84 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: third teams and who's gonna play. Um, you could have 85 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 1: a big edge in the preseason. Uh, Simon, I want 86 00:04:59,920 --> 00:05:01,480 Speaker 1: to get to you in one second. But what do 87 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 1: you mean, Raybond when you say specialized information? Like so, 88 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 1: I think in the regular season more or less you 89 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: kind of know who's gonna play. Like, yes, there are 90 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: injuries and you're sometimes you have to wait till Sunday 91 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: to to find out if guys are going to be 92 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: in and out. But in the preseason, I think it's 93 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 1: a lot more Uh concerning Okay, what is the quarterback 94 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 1: rotation gonna be? What are the coaches saying as far 95 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: as how they're going to approach the game? Is it 96 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,359 Speaker 1: gonna be a game where like what exactly are they 97 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 1: do they want to look at? Who do they want 98 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 1: to look at? Um? How long do they want to leave? 99 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 1: Like I don't not the starter because the starters rarely play, 100 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: but how long do they want to leave the second 101 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 1: team and or the third team? You know who's has 102 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 1: the deeper roster, you know who has the better undrafted 103 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:51,599 Speaker 1: free agent class? You know things like that, Um, you know, 104 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: if you even if like let's say you just follow 105 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 1: like one team and your that's your hometown team, but 106 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 1: you've kind of been following your practice reports every day 107 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: and reading their beats, like you can have an edge 108 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:05,160 Speaker 1: just betting that specific team because um, you know, and 109 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 1: a lot of an average better might not in the 110 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 1: market in general, I think it's not necessarily that locked 111 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 1: in and dialed in to these specifics. And so that's 112 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 1: why I like it, because I think it's like you 113 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 1: can you're essentially betting on like these second and third 114 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,479 Speaker 1: and four stringers that a lot of people don't even know, 115 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 1: and even the books setting the lines, they don't really 116 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:26,600 Speaker 1: know these players. They're there. I think you're on a 117 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 1: uh if you do know these guys, I think you're 118 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 1: on a more even level with the book, then then 119 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:35,359 Speaker 1: maybe you would you would ever be otherwise, all right, Simon, 120 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: are you betting preseason games? Yeah? I mean I'm always betting, 121 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:43,599 Speaker 1: But I think it's changed a little bit for sure 122 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 1: since COVID. Like before COVID, we had four games and 123 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: I kind of had a rhythm and the group to 124 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 1: it that I've just playcated to every year where this 125 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:53,039 Speaker 1: is a little different. Like I think Chris talked about 126 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: like teams they really don't care, like they really do 127 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 1: not care. Most coaches Sean McVeigh put him at the 128 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: very top, like his starters don't just the field in preseason. 129 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 1: So to me, I I try to find advantage in 130 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,599 Speaker 1: these backup quarterbacks, Like I really you wouldn't want to 131 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 1: know how much time I spend watching practice tape on 132 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: backup orderbacks, but that's what I'm looking for, Like guys 133 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 1: like Trace mcs really the guy who played for the Ravens, 134 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 1: like he went four and oh one preseason. Like that's 135 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 1: how I win money on some of these guys. I 136 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 1: just ride the hot hand in preseason. So definitely Chris 137 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 1: about picking your spots more so than NFL season. Like 138 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: if there just isn't a bet for me week one 139 00:07:28,440 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 1: in the preseason, I'm just not gonna force it just 140 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 1: to put a bet out there, Like I want to 141 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 1: make sure I'm getting down money on something that can 142 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: actually have good information on, Like just don't force stuff 143 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 1: up because you got the itch. But like we're about 144 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 1: to talk, I don't know, maybe next next week we'll 145 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 1: talk preseason games. But the Hall of Fame game was 146 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: what tomorrow. That's one of those like I'll just bet 147 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: the under blindly, like I think it's twelve and seven 148 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 1: since two thousand on the under. So it's just there's 149 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 1: certain games where like, yeah, I'm gonna bet like a 150 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: hundred of bucks on it, but like real big money, 151 00:07:57,520 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 1: I do what Chris does, Like you're looking for and 152 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: edge information or you know, like your own local team 153 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 1: they're not playing starters and the other team is playing starters. 154 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 1: Maybe that first half the books are gonna give you 155 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: these options, So yeah, shop around. You can make good 156 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 1: money on the preseason. Just be careful like it's it's preseason, 157 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:19,239 Speaker 1: Like you might be like, oh, I heard this guy's 158 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: playing the whole first half and he has a good 159 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 1: first series and that's it. So please don't don't be 160 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 1: using your whole bank roll in the preseason. So you 161 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: mentioned McVeigh, Are there teams and coaches that it's easier 162 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:36,959 Speaker 1: to get that informational advantage on Simon? You go first 163 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: all about be writers, Like again, I'm I'm not the 164 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:42,200 Speaker 1: biggest fan of social media, but I am for information, 165 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:46,679 Speaker 1: Like information is king. Follow your beat writers, give support 166 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: to your local be writers. These people are in the know. 167 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:53,199 Speaker 1: So that's something I'm on, Like turn alerts on even 168 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 1: during the season. I alert tom you know, it's Schefter, 169 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,680 Speaker 1: a couple of other guys. Preseason, My alerts are on 170 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 1: for everybody because like that's that's information is power. But 171 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 1: we already heard Vegas is sitting starters and start with 172 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:06,680 Speaker 1: the Jaguars for tomorrow's Hall of Fame game. Like that's 173 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: important information. I think the total drop by another point. 174 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 1: So that's what I mean. You just wanna be on 175 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:15,199 Speaker 1: top of these beat writers and getting get information. But 176 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 1: what about you in the preseason. I think now that 177 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 1: with the growth of you know, betting dfs things like that, 178 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 1: I think the beat writers actually understand better than they 179 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 1: ever have that there is this kind of niche crowd 180 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:30,319 Speaker 1: that is looking for certain types of information. So I 181 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 1: think the information is accessible, but you have to really dig. 182 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:37,440 Speaker 1: So for example, you know, when I'm following beat writers 183 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 1: and I'm looking at their social media accounts and I 184 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 1: create Twitter lists and whatnot, I'm not just browsing their 185 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 1: tweets in the headlines, I'm actually reading the articles that 186 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 1: they're posting. Because usually a beat writer is gonna post 187 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 1: an article every single day about a team's practice, and 188 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 1: you can glean a lot from that. You know, who's 189 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 1: practicing with the twos, the three, like the four's, Um, 190 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: you know who's you know which quarterback is coming in first? Um? 191 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 1: You know who? Who? Who? Do they want to get along? 192 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 1: Look who's playing well? You know who's who's playing poorly? 193 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: Like what who is the offense winning? More? Is a 194 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 1: defensive anymore? Sometimes there are joint practices and you can 195 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 1: lean a lot from that. They even have the stats 196 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: from practices at this point. Um. So like there's just 197 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 1: a lot of information there that you can clean. Um 198 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 1: and the and and then the coaches are a little 199 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 1: more forthcoming in terms of what they're gonna do. It's 200 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 1: just that you have to kind of dig for the information. 201 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:27,559 Speaker 1: But um, you know there's not because there's not really 202 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 1: they're not really looking for a competitive advantage. You know 203 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: a lot of times they'll tell you like, Okay, yeah, 204 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:33,440 Speaker 1: this is our plan with with the quarterbacks, this is 205 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 1: our plan with um, you know so and so player 206 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 1: who might you know be a play a key role 207 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:41,480 Speaker 1: in terms of the the outcome. So, Um, the information 208 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 1: is there. I think you just have to look for 209 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 1: But I wouldn't say necessary that like there's any one 210 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 1: team or or that's like easier to get or harder 211 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:52,960 Speaker 1: to get information from their others. I just think you 212 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 1: have to kind of dig in and not just like 213 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 1: look at the headlines or the you know, the characters 214 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: or whatever. You gotta um go a little deeper. This 215 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:03,959 Speaker 1: is gonna sound like a weird question. But when both 216 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 1: of you guys, you're watching practice film, you're reading every story, 217 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: you're seeing who's practicing with the two's who's playing well. 218 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,800 Speaker 1: You know, there's a story in the New York Post 219 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 1: today that Zack Wilson for the Jets continues to be 220 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:21,200 Speaker 1: inconsistent and when over four in a passing drill against 221 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 1: the first team defense, And how do you record that 222 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:27,559 Speaker 1: information in a way that you can go back to it. 223 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 1: Do you have a massive spreadsheet that you're putting in 224 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 1: notes for every team in every game? Like how are 225 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 1: you digesting and then manifesting it so it's actionable. I 226 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,839 Speaker 1: mainly focus on the quarterbacks just because for me, that's 227 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 1: easy to quantify than every little guy. Like there's just 228 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:45,560 Speaker 1: too much, right, Like there's just too much and there's 229 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:47,959 Speaker 1: too many players. You you drive yourself crazy, like you 230 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:50,840 Speaker 1: gotta really try to use your time wise you Right, 231 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:53,079 Speaker 1: I've learned that's the biggest advantage I have is watching 232 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:56,840 Speaker 1: these quarterbacks and was Zach Wilson. I'm no biggie, Like 233 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 1: this kid could throw seven picks tomorrow. I do not 234 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:02,320 Speaker 1: care if this is the end of August and this 235 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 1: kid is still throwing multiple picks and having over four 236 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 1: days in the red zone and like inconsistent, huge problem. 237 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 1: But early early like this, getting getting used to things 238 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 1: and kind of getting back into will flow. A lot 239 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 1: of these guys are trying stuff they wouldn't try, you know, 240 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 1: they're trying to push their limits and see what they 241 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 1: did in the off season if that's calm and work 242 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: for them coming into the season. So to me, early 243 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 1: days like this, I don't really care. But yeah, once 244 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:29,439 Speaker 1: we're starting closer, it's a big deal. I can tell 245 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 1: you from my own own reading with the Eagles, Hurts 246 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 1: has been inconsistent. Like that's that's a problem, right, because 247 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:36,839 Speaker 1: that's what when the knox On Hurts has been He's 248 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 1: an inconsistent quarterback. So yeah, I'm following away, brother, Like 249 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:42,520 Speaker 1: I I got a spreadsheet where I've written that down, 250 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 1: and I'll revisit it because I'll keep updating as I go. 251 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:48,199 Speaker 1: And if every week I keep writing hurts is inconsistent, 252 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 1: you you bet I am gonna be ready to fade 253 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:55,280 Speaker 1: then or lesson, just lessen my ideal of what I 254 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:56,959 Speaker 1: was gonna bet on the Eagles going into this season. 255 00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 1: Like that's one of those things where I already had 256 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 1: already to a joy. I had mentality heading into the 257 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 1: season on the team. Now I let them show me, like, 258 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 1: let them show me what they actually are and keep 259 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: adjusting off of that because we talk all the time, 260 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:10,440 Speaker 1: right teams that are the way a team is September 261 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 1: there nowhere near the same team in November. So you're 262 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 1: kind of doing the same thing in preseason. Like the 263 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 1: guy on the first week of August, he's gonna be 264 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,679 Speaker 1: a different guy by the final week of August. And 265 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:21,839 Speaker 1: then I can't be stubborn. I just have to keep 266 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 1: updating and pick the information in because Chris will touch 267 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 1: on here, it's it's a big deal of the process, 268 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 1: all the information. This is how you find edges before 269 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 1: the season starts. What's the process, right, bun So for me, 270 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 1: I mean I have my my master spreadsheet with you know, 271 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 1: my entire NFL model, which you know includes you know, 272 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 1: everything for fantasy and betting, so's I have every player 273 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 1: in that spreadsheet. I'm constantly updating the rosters and just 274 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: you know, tweaking widow things even for you know, sometimes 275 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:50,800 Speaker 1: for regular season projections just based on things I'm hearing, 276 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:53,280 Speaker 1: uh in the preseason. And then I also I'm a 277 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:56,680 Speaker 1: big Google Docs uh person as well, So like for 278 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 1: every slate, I'll just start a new Google Doc and 279 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:02,080 Speaker 1: I'll just just kind of start by just looking over 280 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:04,840 Speaker 1: to slate and um, it's kind of second nature to me, 281 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:07,320 Speaker 1: just but just kind of looking for things that I 282 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,559 Speaker 1: think could be an edge and just kind of going 283 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 1: from there. I mean, there's a lot of ways to 284 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: do it. Like, for example, I think you can kind 285 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 1: of start with a trend and then you can say, okay, um, 286 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 1: you know, for example, like we've seen under like preseason 287 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 1: games tend to be closed. There's you know, it's both 288 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: teams are playing back up. So anytime you see a 289 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 1: spread that's pretty large, um, there's usually value on it. 290 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: So like underdogs of more than five points, especially when 291 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 1: it's like nonconference, when there's like no familiarity, and they're 292 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 1: just all both coaches are just trying out different things, 293 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 1: like underdogs of five and a half or more UHT 294 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 1: and thirty since for so I mna say, okay, well, 295 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 1: which who what? What teams ship that trend? That doesn't 296 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 1: mean I'm gonna blind me better bet on them. But 297 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 1: now I'll say, I wonder, you know, let me look 298 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 1: at the quarterbacks for these two teams. Who you know, 299 00:14:56,680 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 1: who's who's gonna face off? You know, third strink, four 300 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 1: string things like that, UM, and just kind of go 301 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 1: from there. Like for example, the Jaguars for this Hall 302 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 1: of Fame game, they just signed Kyle Slaughter and he's 303 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 1: one of the better preseason quarterbacks. I think it's over 304 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 1: eight yards in attempt with eleven touchdowns the one pit 305 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 1: career in the preseason. So you know he's going against 306 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 1: like if of Vegas plays their four stream qb uh, 307 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 1: he's like this. I think it's Chase Garbers. I believe 308 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 1: it is. It's like some undrafted free agent who's just 309 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 1: I would expect Slater to win that matchup. So like 310 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 1: just kind of looking for edges like that. UM. There's 311 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 1: a lot of different starting points, but I'm essentially just 312 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 1: kind of like looking for something to latch onto and 313 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: then um, digging a little deeper from there and kind 314 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 1: of a gut check and saying, Okay, maybe I am 315 00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 1: intrigued by this, or no, I don't. I'm gonna go 316 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 1: a different way. And you know, to talking about like 317 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 1: that example Simon gave of Zack Wilson and how he's struggling. Um, 318 00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: if I see that, I actually think that's that could 319 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 1: be a positive for betting the Jets because like, let's 320 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 1: say exactly has been struggling all camp, Well, maybe then 321 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: they do at him play uh, you know, deeper into 322 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 1: the second or third preseason game, whereas the other team 323 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: isn't really playing their starters. So a struggling back Boson 324 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 1: or struggling Daniel Jones or struggling Jalen Hurts, like that 325 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 1: can be a positive forbetting on that team because they're 326 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 1: gonna let them get work in and they're not gonna 327 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 1: take them out until they score a touchdown or two. 328 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 1: And they're still starting caliber players that are gonna be 329 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 1: playing against largely backups that aren't trying to win. So, um, 330 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:35,920 Speaker 1: it's just how you kind of use the information and 331 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: and and kind of put it together and tell that um, 332 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: kind of let it weads you to what you think 333 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 1: is the outcome is going to be. Uh. The only 334 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: takeaway from this is that you should bet Kyle Slaughter. 335 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 1: He's the preseason m v P. Wherever he goes, that's 336 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:55,880 Speaker 1: where the money should go. Football is right around the 337 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 1: corner in vandal sports book is here to help you 338 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 1: make every moment more because running out. 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In Virginia one eight eight eight seven eight 361 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:17,680 Speaker 1: nine seven seven seven seven, or visit CCPG dot org 362 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,960 Speaker 1: slash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred to seven zero 363 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:24,919 Speaker 1: seven one seven for confidential help in Michigan called the 364 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 1: Tennessee Redline one eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven 365 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 1: eight nine, or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net 366 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:37,480 Speaker 1: in West Virginia, raybon You and our other BFF Sean 367 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 1: Kroner recorded on the Fantasy Flex podcast. A couple of 368 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 1: weeks ago to one. To be exact, your season long 369 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,320 Speaker 1: Player Props episode, which is actually one of the biggest 370 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: episodes we do all year. You and Kroner both are 371 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 1: phenomenal A projections powering action network player projections, which is 372 00:18:55,960 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 1: great if you want to find value in season long props. 373 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 1: You and Kerner and me agree on one quarterback where 374 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 1: there is an opportunity, Mr Baker Mayfield, explain yourself and 375 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 1: then be ready to be mocked by Mr Simon Hunter. 376 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,679 Speaker 1: I'm just not buying Baker. I'm fading him. I like 377 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 1: his under twenty one and a half passing touchdowns. I 378 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,879 Speaker 1: know Kerner X is under yardage as well, but I 379 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,199 Speaker 1: think there's just a lot of red flags. And you know, 380 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,360 Speaker 1: first of all, Baker is one of those guys that 381 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:36,879 Speaker 1: he's probably gonna start in week one, but if he 382 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 1: struggles there there's two other guys that they could try 383 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 1: out or if they have a bad season. Like you know, 384 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,440 Speaker 1: when you're when you're projecting player props, right, like the 385 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:51,840 Speaker 1: books are usually projecting uh sixteen seventeen games played for 386 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 1: these these quarterbacks that they're posting props for, and so 387 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 1: um a guy like Baker, I think he's one of 388 00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 1: the few quarterbacks that has props listed where they need 389 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 1: to start week one, so they get action on it. 390 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:07,399 Speaker 1: But I think some things could go wrong within that season. Um, 391 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 1: and you know, maybe Caroline is out of it and 392 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 1: they want to look at Matt four o four a 393 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 1: week or two because they're you know six and nine 394 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,160 Speaker 1: or five and ten, you know, heading into the last 395 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,119 Speaker 1: two weeks to the season. And even if Baker was 396 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,479 Speaker 1: like not terrible but just okay, they might say, oh, 397 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,440 Speaker 1: we want to look at the young guy. And Baker 398 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,640 Speaker 1: gets benched and then he falls short of his prop 399 00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 1: for that reason. Um, you know they're talking about Sam 400 00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:32,119 Speaker 1: Donald is still kind of in a battle. So you know, 401 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:34,640 Speaker 1: if Baker has a bad game or two mid season, 402 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 1: you know, maybe he gets the bench, even if it's 403 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 1: for a game or two. But also just looking at 404 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 1: Caroline in the period. Uh, last year, they have fourteen 405 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:46,160 Speaker 1: passing touchdowns in seventeen games. Uh the year and obviously, 406 00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 1: you know, quarterback situation not great. The year before that 407 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 1: they had Teddy Bridgewater sixteen passing touchdowns in sixteen games, 408 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 1: and like, this is just a team that they really 409 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 1: don't have touchdown makers outside of Krick and McCaffrey, like 410 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 1: DJ Moore is their best receiver. Uh. He constantly clear 411 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 1: as a thousand yards his career highest four touchdowns. So 412 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:12,760 Speaker 1: when you're best receiver UH career highest four touchdowns, that's 413 00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 1: kind of a problem when you're betting on a player 414 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:17,880 Speaker 1: that we don't even know get you know, the full 415 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,920 Speaker 1: seventeen starts to go over this total. So I liked 416 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 1: fading Baker Mayfield because I think you have a lot 417 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 1: of outs in terms of how he could fall short 418 00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:33,080 Speaker 1: of his season long player props despite starting Week one. Alright, 419 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 1: sign in agree or disagree? I agree. I'll make it quick. 420 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,880 Speaker 1: You know I'm down on Baker. I just I don't 421 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 1: like the vibes of the whole situation with him, and 422 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:46,200 Speaker 1: now I'm looking at him an undersized guy can't stay healthy. 423 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 1: Going from we can we can argue about what we 424 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,640 Speaker 1: think is tefanscise. I think he's a really talented offensive mind. 425 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 1: So a Carolina team that just hasn't produced any offensive 426 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:58,439 Speaker 1: you know, consistency, they just aren't. And you said it's 427 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 1: because it qub position. But I just don't see a 428 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,120 Speaker 1: Baker being down much of an upgrade with Teddy Bridgewater 429 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,199 Speaker 1: when he was down there, So I'm down on it. 430 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,399 Speaker 1: I just I would not bet any over that's associated 431 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 1: with Baker, even his interception over. I wouldn't bet just 432 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: because I just can't see him playing out the season 433 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 1: like he's just an under guy for that simple fact. 434 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:19,360 Speaker 1: Leap one love Carolina right like them Mr Brown's that's 435 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,159 Speaker 1: great revenge game. Other than that, I just I'm just 436 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 1: not gonna be a positive Carolina guy this year. Alright, 437 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 1: So Raybon, Uh, as you think about the season long 438 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:34,439 Speaker 1: props that are available, what else are you looking at? 439 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 1: So it's crazy because a lot of the props shown 440 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 1: and I talked about, actually all of the props we 441 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 1: talked about pretty much, um have have the lines have 442 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: completely moved and so uh, they're like, right now is 443 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 1: actually a pretty dead time, Like a lot of the 444 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,919 Speaker 1: lines have adjusted after that initial like wave of bets 445 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 1: coming in. So, um, there's a couple that I like, 446 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 1: But I think we're gonna start having to wait for 447 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,679 Speaker 1: more news to come in and so that we can 448 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,439 Speaker 1: react and get some edges because now that you know 449 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,440 Speaker 1: we're talking about props for a few weeks and betting 450 00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 1: on him, like the lines are a lot sharper than 451 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,960 Speaker 1: they were two weeks ago. But Patrick mahomes under three 452 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,880 Speaker 1: fifty and a half rushing yards. UH. He would need 453 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 1: to average twenty point six or more rushing yards per 454 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 1: game for seventeen games UH to clear that number. He's 455 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:24,880 Speaker 1: only done that once in his four years as the starter. UH. 456 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,640 Speaker 1: And he's only top three hundred fifty once in four 457 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:31,040 Speaker 1: years as a starter as well, even if you adjusted 458 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:34,160 Speaker 1: and and add some yardage to account for the seventeen 459 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:37,439 Speaker 1: game season instead of sixteen. So UM, I think this 460 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,480 Speaker 1: is one of the few bets that I season long 461 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 1: props that I see on FANDU still that UM hasn't 462 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 1: like adjusted to a point where there's no real value 463 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 1: on either side. I think, I think that's my favorite one. 464 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:53,120 Speaker 1: And then a long shot bet. I like Nagi Harris 465 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 1: most rushing yards in the league at eighteen to one. 466 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,199 Speaker 1: You know, we talked about we like the stealers. They 467 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 1: could play ball control with defense. He was second in 468 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 1: attempts UH last year and fourth in yards. And you 469 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,600 Speaker 1: know he's entering year two running back to peek right away. UH. 470 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,479 Speaker 1: And you know last year it was really just the 471 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,680 Speaker 1: line struggled and so he was one of those guys, 472 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:14,960 Speaker 1: you know, three point five, three point eight, you know, 473 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 1: that was kind of his yards per carry most weeks. 474 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 1: But you know, a lot could change year over year. 475 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,200 Speaker 1: I think the line is gonna be a little bit better, 476 00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 1: and you get some you get some positive regression. A 477 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,439 Speaker 1: long runner two. You know, maybe Henry gets you know, 478 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,240 Speaker 1: misses another few games, or you know, all the guys 479 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:31,119 Speaker 1: at the top miss a couple of games. And I 480 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 1: think Naji is right there. He's he's built like a house. 481 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,639 Speaker 1: So um, I like Naji Harris, who to lead the 482 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 1: league in Russian at eighteen o one, Nagi Harris. Naji 483 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 1: Harris just seems like he is coming to play nasty football. Also, 484 00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 1: what this says to me is that you're a big 485 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:59,240 Speaker 1: believer in Mitchell true bisky, and defense is having to 486 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 1: keep him on. I don't know about all that. I 487 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,920 Speaker 1: just think I just think that like with like when 488 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,199 Speaker 1: you were for example, when you're projecting running backs, like 489 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 1: there's such a low um like there's it's yards for 490 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,720 Speaker 1: Carrie is just it's it's very volatile year over year 491 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,439 Speaker 1: and it's a very small spread. It's like the lowest 492 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:19,800 Speaker 1: guy in your projections is probably gonna be like three 493 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:21,879 Speaker 1: point nine or four point oh, and then the highest 494 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,680 Speaker 1: guy will be like five. And so you know, all 495 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:26,760 Speaker 1: you need is a couple of those long runs, which 496 00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 1: Nagi still has that potential for, and he's gonna get 497 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 1: the volume. I mean, if Pittsburgh does what we think 498 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 1: they're gonna do, they're gonna play good d You know, 499 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:37,879 Speaker 1: they're gonna try to manage the game with Rubisky or 500 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:39,879 Speaker 1: you know, maybe maybe it ends up being rude Off 501 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 1: or Piket sometimes. But we know how Pittsburgh is gonna 502 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,080 Speaker 1: play regardless it was that quarterback. It's gonna start and 503 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 1: end with with Nagy Harris sign. What are you gonna say? Oh, well, 504 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,480 Speaker 1: so I'll just do real quick. I bet hundreds of 505 00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,480 Speaker 1: player props already. I would love to hear your take 506 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,680 Speaker 1: on my three long shots. I different wide receiver player props. 507 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:02,399 Speaker 1: So my first one was and uh ds, you know, 508 00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,679 Speaker 1: bi all know he's on the chiefs Now. He's sixty 509 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:08,120 Speaker 1: one to lead the league in passing yards. Juju Smith 510 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 1: douch uh, I get it, he's playing the slot for 511 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,800 Speaker 1: the chiefs Now. But if fifty two want to lead 512 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,800 Speaker 1: the league and receiving yards with my Homes, Like that's 513 00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 1: pretty good value. And then Allen Robinson on the Rams. 514 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:22,719 Speaker 1: I don't think people get how good this guy is. 515 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 1: Like he's just been withering away with the Bears, Cooper Cup, 516 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:31,480 Speaker 1: MVP season, last years, Super m v P, Out of 517 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,920 Speaker 1: this World. Everyone's gonna be shifted towards him, Allen Robinson, 518 00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 1: He's gonna be open. He's gonna get a lot of touches. 519 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 1: Am I crazy thinking all these guys are better than 520 00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:41,920 Speaker 1: fifty two one or great Values right now? Or am 521 00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:45,639 Speaker 1: I just dreaming? I think Juju would be tough, just 522 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,320 Speaker 1: because I do think that. I don't think the targets 523 00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,800 Speaker 1: are gonna be deep enough downfield, partly because they do 524 00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:55,040 Speaker 1: have MVS. So I think MVS is actually pretty intriguing. 525 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,879 Speaker 1: Like he's never been a volume guy, but you know 526 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 1: he is going to see a like a step up 527 00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 1: in terms of his target share, I think. And Patrick Mahomes, 528 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:08,360 Speaker 1: you know he can chuck a deep so I don't 529 00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,160 Speaker 1: hate that one. I think Jude, I think he's gonna 530 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:13,640 Speaker 1: kind of cancel out Jude Judo Um and a rob 531 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,640 Speaker 1: I think I like the Canfarry and a rat play. 532 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,480 Speaker 1: I do think what ultimately may need to happen though, 533 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 1: is Cup may actually need to get hurt, Like if 534 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:23,920 Speaker 1: he may not just need to draw a coverage away, 535 00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 1: he may actually need to get hurt. And so the 536 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 1: Rams just really have nobody else and that you know, 537 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,399 Speaker 1: they still have Matthew Stafford, there's still They're still have 538 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,760 Speaker 1: Sean McVeigh, and so they'll just figure out a way 539 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,119 Speaker 1: and maybe Allen Robinson becomes that dude who you know 540 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 1: gets a hundred ninety target And we've seen Allen Robinson, 541 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 1: I believe, who had the way weekend targets when yere 542 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,320 Speaker 1: he was used in the top five, So you know, yeah, 543 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,920 Speaker 1: he's he's gotten a hundred fifty plus targets four times 544 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:49,280 Speaker 1: in his career. Um, you know, so I think that 545 00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 1: there's an avenue to that. So I think, yeah, Robinson 546 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:55,000 Speaker 1: is probably my favorite envious, Like I think he could 547 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,240 Speaker 1: have a season and people think I think he could 548 00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:01,200 Speaker 1: return value on his fantasy adp um. You know, don't 549 00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,959 Speaker 1: hate it, juju, probably not, just because I do think 550 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,600 Speaker 1: he'll he'll get like more of the underneath targets that 551 00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 1: kind of help help Mahomes, you know, because you know 552 00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,360 Speaker 1: how the defense is kind of adjusted to like when 553 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,760 Speaker 1: they do want to look deep, they needed more guys 554 00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,120 Speaker 1: over the short area the field. And I think that's 555 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,480 Speaker 1: why they're like, all right, we're gonna you know, trade 556 00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:21,919 Speaker 1: Tyreek will kind of revamping and more intermediate uh and 557 00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,439 Speaker 1: underneath guys. So I think that ROJJ is going to 558 00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:28,560 Speaker 1: play by the way NVS. For anybody listening is UH 559 00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:33,479 Speaker 1: Marquez Valdez Scantling who signed with the Chiefs UH front 560 00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:37,320 Speaker 1: Packers one more weapon that Aaron Rodgers lost during the offseason. 561 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:42,600 Speaker 1: Chris Raban, host of the Fantasy Flex podcast, member of 562 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,800 Speaker 1: the Convinced Me team which will come back UH during 563 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:49,080 Speaker 1: the fall along with Me, Simon Shean, Karner, Jenner, Rivel 564 00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 1: Samantha Paved, the whole gang. He does it all, folks. 565 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,280 Speaker 1: He's a projectionist, he's a writer, he's a video talent. 566 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 1: He's an audio talent. He is Chris raybun O. Wait chat, Chad, 567 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,360 Speaker 1: there you go. Let me. I forgot to mention one 568 00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,480 Speaker 1: thing better Ravens in the preseason. It's the best Betton 569 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,480 Speaker 1: Sports twenty and oh the last twenty straight up, the 570 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,800 Speaker 1: game seven two against the friend the last overall since 571 00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:19,240 Speaker 1: hardball U became the coach forty and twelve seventy seven percent. 572 00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 1: They're one of there, like the only team that actually 573 00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 1: like seems to try to win preseason games, uh, in 574 00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 1: this current era. So I just wanted to mention that 575 00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 1: we always like to give people takeaways. I think our 576 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:36,720 Speaker 1: takeaways here are bet On Kyle Slaughter of the Jack's 577 00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:42,120 Speaker 1: bet On the Ravens and John Harbaugh and uh Fade 578 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,560 Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield and his PLAP props for the year. Like 579 00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 1: I said, he's Chris Raybon along with Simon Hunter, producer 580 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,240 Speaker 1: extra ord Near, Matt Mitchel. I am Jad Milman. There 581 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:55,680 Speaker 1: has been The Favorites podcast from Volume podcast Network, downloaders 582 00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:59,600 Speaker 1: from Apple Podcast, Spotify, wherever you get the pods, rate review, subscribe, 583 00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,720 Speaker 1: give us watch stars. Feedback is a gift thany can 584 00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:07,560 Speaker 1: you want? Until next time? I Love you, M