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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds, and Alvin Bragg told Jim Jordan to

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Speaker 1: respect states rights and not interfere with his case against Trump.

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Speaker 1: We have the show of shows today. University of Michigan

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Speaker 1: economics professor Justin Wolford stops by to talk fed rate

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Speaker 1: hikes and bank runs. But don't worry, we make it fun.

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Speaker 1: Then we'll talk to the New York Times Charlie Savage

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Speaker 1: about Trump's latest legal troubles and the media manipulation he

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Speaker 1: created or added. But first we have the host of

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Speaker 1: the next level, The Bullworks, Tim Miller. Welcome back, Too

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Speaker 1: Fast Politics, Tim Miller. By second appearance, I'm going for

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Speaker 1: that green jacket. How many appearances do I need to

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Speaker 1: get jacket? After forty five appearances, we buy you a

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Speaker 1: green jacket. Okay, great, I'll hold you to that. Forty

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Speaker 1: three more to go. So Trump has neither been arrested

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Speaker 1: nor indicted. I have purple blue balls like I've been

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Speaker 1: waiting for it all week. I've just been waiting for

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Speaker 1: this to pop the champagne, and it sucks. It is

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Speaker 1: it's been disappointing. Definitely, folks got played by Trump. There

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Speaker 1: were a lot of whispers out there that he was

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Speaker 1: going to get indicted. I don't think I would have,

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Speaker 1: you know, bought into this Tuesday arrest that he put

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Speaker 1: on his pretend Twitter that he has if it wasn't

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Speaker 1: for the fact that, like on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday,

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Speaker 1: your little TV producers were texting me. There were whispers,

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Speaker 1: you know, things were happening. Trump's Kid's going to happen.

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Speaker 1: And so then when Trump sent out the fake the bleat,

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Speaker 1: you know, it felt real. But alas it hasn't been,

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Speaker 1: though hopefully it's imminent there. We had a great bullwork

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Speaker 1: article this week. Do you know there's probably there are

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Speaker 1: six different investigations active into him right now. Six it's

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Speaker 1: just one of six. Well, there's Georgia, there's New York,

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Speaker 1: there's Jack Smiths Action one, there's one into truth Social

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Speaker 1: and there's the classified docs. Right But I want to

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Speaker 1: like real talk with you for a second. Even if

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Speaker 1: we see something from these six, I don't think it

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Speaker 1: hurts him. This has been the conventional wisdom out there,

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Speaker 1: and I don't I don't necessarily disagree with you, but

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Speaker 1: I do want to offer a potentially more hopeful take,

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Speaker 1: a more bright eye take, which is that the weight

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Speaker 1: of all of this overtime compounds. Right like, Trump was

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Speaker 1: at his weakest a few months ago because the news

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Speaker 1: environment around him was so awful. As the election had

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Speaker 1: gone bad, Trump had endorsed these terrible candidates. There was

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Speaker 1: the January sixth committee that was going on all of

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Speaker 1: these investigations, and that's when in some of these poles

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Speaker 1: run de Sanctis was beating him, right, and some of

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Speaker 1: these had the headpoles at that time, right right, And

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Speaker 1: that was a real thing that there are Republican voters

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Speaker 1: that still like Trump that are susceptible to you know,

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Speaker 1: a series of bad news environments that make them feel

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Speaker 1: like he can't win. Right. If they feel like he

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Speaker 1: can't win, they won't go with them. And so, you know,

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Speaker 1: I think that right now, in the short term, sure,

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Speaker 1: it's been a little booie. People want to stand by

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Speaker 1: their man, They want to come to his defense, you know,

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Speaker 1: but over time, if this one drops and then another

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Speaker 1: one drops, and then another one drops, which is what

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Speaker 1: I expect to happen, then I think the weight of

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Speaker 1: all of that, and the fact that like this guy's

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Speaker 1: got like four different arraignments coming up in a nine

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Speaker 1: week period. It might make you know, have not his

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Speaker 1: core MAGA folks, right, Not the core magas they're never

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Speaker 1: going to go, but this this wishy washy group, but

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Speaker 1: the key group in the Republican primary, which is people

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Speaker 1: that we like Trump but we're not sure are we

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Speaker 1: ready to go on the ride a third time? Or

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Speaker 1: do we just want to give him a gold watch

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Speaker 1: and put them on Mountain Rushmore and say, you know,

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Speaker 1: we're ready to move on? Right? Like that person. You know,

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Speaker 1: I think right now it's helping Trump with that person,

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Speaker 1: but I think over time it could go the other way.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about this because we had Sarah Longwell on

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Speaker 1: this podcast and the Best and I'm a big fan

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Speaker 1: of hers, and she talks to a lot of people,

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Speaker 1: but she and she talks to a lot of people.

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Speaker 1: She talks to more people than any of us, right,

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Speaker 1: because she is doing these focus groups. She said that,

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Speaker 1: you know, she really feels like Jasantis is less dangerous

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Speaker 1: than Trump. I disagreed with her pretty strongly on that.

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Speaker 1: What is your take on that? Like in this imaginary

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Speaker 1: world where one of them is the president. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'd be interested to hear your disagreement. I would side

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Speaker 1: with Sarah. And the simple answer is this Trump has

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Speaker 1: now been through this one time. He's been in there

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Speaker 1: four years. He tried the oh, I'm going to have

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Speaker 1: some adults around, the John Kelly's and the and the Maddises,

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Speaker 1: and as as gross as all those people were in

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Speaker 1: how complicit they were, at some level, it was a

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Speaker 1: bumper around him, right, Like his craziest ideas didn't go through,

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Speaker 1: you know those Gary Cohn was like not was literally

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Speaker 1: not putting things on his desk and like pocket vetelling

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Speaker 1: things that government should work, by the way, but whatever, okay,

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Speaker 1: this next time around. The types of people that around

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Speaker 1: him right now are absolute lunatics. It's the dregs of

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Speaker 1: the dregs. And I think he would feel so embolded

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Speaker 1: to do whatever he wants. I think that he goes

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Speaker 1: a little kind of a scared little mouse that first year,

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Speaker 1: and he didn't think he was gonna win. He couldn't

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Speaker 1: believe he's gonna win, So he did plenty of damaging

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Speaker 1: ship and it was plenty horrible. But I just think

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Speaker 1: a second Trump term is like literally an extinction level

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Speaker 1: event potentially for the democracy. I don't want to like

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Speaker 1: scare people, but that's where I'm It's like a move

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Speaker 1: to Mexico City, cut level events, and like the Scantis

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Speaker 1: is bad and I and we could go through all

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Speaker 1: the things I don't like about what the Santis is

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Speaker 1: doing in Florida, but I do think he would bring

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Speaker 1: the adults in and you know, they might be more

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Speaker 1: effective at at enacting some of these policies that that

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Speaker 1: progressives don't like that I don't like in certain cases.

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Speaker 1: But I just think that like the worst case scenario

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Speaker 1: is just literally catastrophic, the end of American upper Trump

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Speaker 1: and for de Santis, it's like this is bad, right, right, rights.

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Speaker 1: My question for you, I actually think that Trump is

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Speaker 1: a sort of known quantity and desands is really really

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Speaker 1: hyper focused and very effective, and in my mind, these

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Speaker 1: two things make him and he's also and again you know,

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Speaker 1: I have many LGBTQ people in my life, present company included,

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Speaker 1: you included, but he has really made this the target

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Speaker 1: for him in a way we have never seen. I

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Speaker 1: mean in my lifetime, I have never seen or at

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Speaker 1: least in the last twenty years. I've never seen someone

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Speaker 1: really hone in to a group of people who where

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Speaker 1: everything is settled law, same sex marriage is fucking codified,

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Speaker 1: and the man is just going after gay people in

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Speaker 1: a way that I don't think in my head I

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Speaker 1: could have even imagined. Yeah, very few people have been

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Speaker 1: as vocally upset about the don't Say Gay bill in

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Speaker 1: particular in Florida as I was. I wrote about it

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Speaker 1: and you will have a child, Yeah, I have a child,

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Speaker 1: and that's why I wrote about her. Very early on.

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Speaker 1: I was like, this is crazy, This is insane, this

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Speaker 1: idea that a kindergarten her. You know that my child

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Speaker 1: couldn't come home and do a homework assignment. You know

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Speaker 1: about a family tree that some karen in Florida, you know,

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Speaker 1: could sue the school over that. That's literally the rule.

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Speaker 1: The fact that teachers couldn't talk to my kid about

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Speaker 1: her own family. Yeah, that is outrageous. What he's been doing, obviously,

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Speaker 1: talking to transfolks in drag is also outrageous. As the

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Speaker 1: head to head with Trump comparison thing, another thing that

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Speaker 1: you've had with the santass I just wanted to pop

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Speaker 1: this bubble a little bit about his effectiveness. He's been

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Speaker 1: pretty effective. But a lot of these bills are unconstitutional.

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Speaker 1: You know, our mutual friend Roddie Kaplan is working on

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Speaker 1: the Don't Say Gay Bill and pushing that out. She's

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Speaker 1: the best. The Woodstop Woke Act has already been overturned. Right,

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Speaker 1: A lot of this stuff is just nakedly unconstitutional, and

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Speaker 1: so I actually don't know that he's quite He's a

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Speaker 1: little bit more deft about it and puts a shinier

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Speaker 1: coat of paint on it than Trump does. Right, but

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Speaker 1: still it's still unconstitutional, and still we've had courts, you know.

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Speaker 1: Hold that. I think that there are specific areas, and

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Speaker 1: the LGBT area maybe prime among them, where De Santis

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Speaker 1: would likely be, you know, more effective and more narrowly focused,

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Speaker 1: you know, on on getting legislation that I don't like.

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Speaker 1: Past again, I would strongly support Joe Biden overrun to Santis.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's even a close call head to

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Speaker 1: head against Trump, where it's like, Okay, we can fight

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Speaker 1: this piece of legislation, right, we can fight what he

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Speaker 1: wants to do in schools which run to Santa's versus,

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Speaker 1: like this dude might literally take us out of NATO

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Speaker 1: and end the you know, Western World alliance and threaten

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Speaker 1: the very fabric of our democracy. Like that's just how

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Speaker 1: I how I assess that. But um, you know, no,

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Speaker 1: it's not good either way. I wish that. I wish

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Speaker 1: the other option on the other side was Chris Sanuno

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Speaker 1: or somebody that you know, we could charitably agree and

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Speaker 1: disagree on various That's not the case. And both of

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Speaker 1: them are very bad. I just assess Donald Trump to

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Speaker 1: be end times level. So they're set. It's quite interesting

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Speaker 1: to me. I have to say that snow he had

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Speaker 1: an opportunity to differentiate himself and he and he didn't. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, he went right along with Trump. I dislike

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Speaker 1: Chris Christie a lot. Yeah, you're not alone. Yeah, we

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Speaker 1: have a we have a actually a party every year.

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Speaker 1: It's a secret location because unfortunately, people would be storming

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Speaker 1: the gates to get in. It's just such a popular

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Speaker 1: ticket to Chris Christie hate party. But you know, he

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Speaker 1: at least would be able to go toe to toe

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Speaker 1: with Trump, right, and all these other guys are just

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Speaker 1: such politicians. And the problem is he just has all

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Speaker 1: this baggage now from everything from Bridge Gates. Just is

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Speaker 1: never Trump stuff. I just don't think the MAGA voters

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Speaker 1: are going to listen to him. But that snow New

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Speaker 1: is a nice guy, and I disagree with him on

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Speaker 1: certain things, agree with him on others. He would certainly

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Speaker 1: be much preferable in the other two that it's just

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Speaker 1: like this guy isn't gonna be able to go toe

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Speaker 1: to toe on the stage. It's just not where the

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Speaker 1: party is, right, Like, the party wants MAGA, and they're

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Speaker 1: trying to decide do we want the OG MEGA, who's

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Speaker 1: who might not be electable anymore and we're a little

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Speaker 1: nervous about, you know, all of his baggage, or do

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Speaker 1: we want a MEGA that is pretty close to the

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Speaker 1: OG but you know we might be able to convince

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Speaker 1: ourselves as more electable. That like, that is basically what's

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Speaker 1: happening in the Republican primary. And I think anyone that

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Speaker 1: doesn't fit in that MEGA world doesn't really have a chance. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's amazing, Right, we are in a situation here where

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Speaker 1: like if a Republican had been brave, there would be

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Speaker 1: an alternative. Well, I go back to the second impeachment.

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Speaker 1: Had ten more Republicans voted to convict him, we'd be

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Speaker 1: done with him. This is the thing that drives me

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Speaker 1: the most crazy right now, Molly, is all these guys

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Speaker 1: who you know, just want to be rid of Trump

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Speaker 1: and who are like slowly pushing the scantist you at

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Speaker 1: the chip Roys of the world, and you know people

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Speaker 1: in the Senate who are out there talking about how

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Speaker 1: you know, I just, John Thune, I just trust that

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Speaker 1: the voters won't do this again. Why are you trusting them?

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Speaker 1: Why didn't we just do your job, John Thune. Had

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Speaker 1: seventeen Republicans voted to convict him, he would would have

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Speaker 1: been he would have been borrowed from running, and all

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Speaker 1: of this would be moot, and we could have it

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Speaker 1: out on stage between the Santis and Haley and Pompeo,

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Speaker 1: and you know, all those guys can right and you

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Speaker 1: could have a real primary. Yeah, they were cowards. They

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Speaker 1: failed again for the one hundred millionth time since twenty

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Speaker 1: fifteen to do their job, and so now they're getting

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Speaker 1: stuck with them again. And so there's a little bit,

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Speaker 1: you know, if the stakes were so high, there'd be

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Speaker 1: a little bit of schadenfreud there. It's like it's like,

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Speaker 1: all right, John Thune, you're getting back in, you know,

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Speaker 1: with you're getting in back in the muttering with the

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Speaker 1: pig again. Good luck, enjoy it. But but unfortunately the

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Speaker 1: stakes are too high for me to kind of fully

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Speaker 1: fully appreciate the schadenfreud of that. Yeah, no, me too,

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Speaker 1: And I think I would like to keep our Democrats

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Speaker 1: say there's a world in which like there's some Republican

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Speaker 1: who stands up to him, But I guess not because

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Speaker 1: that's not where the base is and the numbers aren't there. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, sure, stand up. Yeah, I think that they're

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Speaker 1: going to be some to push back on him, but

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Speaker 1: are they going to do it? Well? Right, I got

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Speaker 1: PTSD this week. I don't know about you. When robah

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Speaker 1: Santis went to Peers and and was like, well, you know,

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Speaker 1: I mean donalds was, I don't know a whole lot

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Speaker 1: about this world of paying off porn stars. And I

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Speaker 1: would have been a little tougher than him on Fauci.

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Speaker 1: And you know, these kind of limp attacks on you

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Speaker 1: know that are like not really attacks, Like you know,

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Speaker 1: Donald's like ripping his face off. You're a groomer, you

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Speaker 1: might be gay, you're a whole ball, right, Donald, And

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Speaker 1: he's like, well, I'm not so sure. He's doing the

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Speaker 1: normal politician stuff. And I was like, we I we

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Speaker 1: did this already in twenty sixteen. I was like, I

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Speaker 1: lived through this. You know, everyone did this. Scott Walker

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Speaker 1: tried this, Jeb tried this, Marco trying to Ted Cruz. Right,

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Speaker 1: it's like, this strategy doesn't work. You know where Trump

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Speaker 1: goes alpha predator and you you know, kind of do

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Speaker 1: a light jab back at him, right, and they're they're

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Speaker 1: living We're just living through this all again. Pompeo, Hailey

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Speaker 1: deciantists are all making the same mistakes that we're made

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Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen. Like the only path to beating him

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Speaker 1: is to either go is to either go through him

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Speaker 1: or tomorrow complete yeah, completely an alternative vision and hope

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Speaker 1: he self destructs. I don't think that that would work.

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Speaker 1: That's second path don't work, but it might it could,

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Speaker 1: we don't know, like a year from now. But the

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Speaker 1: person who does that is Lisz Chainy. She's there, she

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Speaker 1: did it right well, I mean but she's these megafolks

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Speaker 1: aren't going to vote from it, liszt change. I mean,

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Speaker 1: she's primary so yeah, so that and that's like going

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Speaker 1: around and like by supporting Democrats. But I mean, like, hypothetically,

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Speaker 1: I think you can get in and say, look, I

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Speaker 1: think Donald Trump's kind of pathetic, and I'm just gonna

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Speaker 1: focus on here's all the things that I do. I

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Speaker 1: don't know that that. I don't know that that would work,

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Speaker 1: but but at least then you know you're offering something

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Speaker 1: to people, right, which is like here, I'm maga two,

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Speaker 1: I'm mega like you. I don't think that that what

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Speaker 1: he's gonna do is work. It's kind of sad how

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Speaker 1: he's lashing out and I'm just gonna focus on this

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Speaker 1: other stuff and I'm gonna ignore him. Now, maybe that

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Speaker 1: wouldn't work. Maybe you have to just punch his face out,

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Speaker 1: and that's I'm surely your old friend Rick Wilson would say.

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Speaker 1: But either of those are at least viable options. Getting

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Speaker 1: in and like, you know, doing this like pillow fight

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Speaker 1: with him while he's like gnawing that you're a jugular

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Speaker 1: is not like that doesn't work right, right, And yet

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Speaker 1: they're all doing it again. It is interesting. The thing

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Speaker 1: with the Santis that I never understand is like, if

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Speaker 1: you could have Trump, why would you have the guy

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Speaker 1: who's like lesser Trump. I think the hope is again

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Speaker 1: when you think about the Median Republican voter, right, like

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Speaker 1: the so there's some people, you know, let's take out

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Speaker 1: the people who are like Liz Cheney curious and take

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Speaker 1: out the people who are storming the capital for Trump, right, like,

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Speaker 1: but they're all those folks out. What percentage of voters

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Speaker 1: are those that we're talking about. You've got maybe ten

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Speaker 1: percent at best, probably a little less than that that

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Speaker 1: are never, you know, that are totally off the train

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Speaker 1: of Trump. Then you've got probably twenty five percent that

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Speaker 1: are Trump always, Trump forever, right, And and we can

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Speaker 1: all we could quibble. It might be fifteen on one side,

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Speaker 1: twenty thirty on the other. Right, but let's just let's

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Speaker 1: just say the big middle sixty percent fifty percent of

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Speaker 1: the party is people that like Trump but having one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent the side of their Trump forever, okay, And

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Speaker 1: like that is the center of the party right now.

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Speaker 1: They might just decide I like Trump, I thought it

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Speaker 1: was good, but man, I don't know, I'm really sick

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Speaker 1: of losing to Democrats, and you know, he's got all

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Speaker 1: this other, all this other stuff happening that I'm not

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Speaker 1: so sure about in the tweets, and it was fun

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Speaker 1: for a little while, but I might be already changed

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Speaker 1: the channel, right like, but again, I really do like him,

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Speaker 1: and I don't like it when the Libs are mean

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Speaker 1: to him, right Like, that person is the key person

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Speaker 1: in determining who's going to be the Republican nominee. And

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Speaker 1: so the hope was that DeSantis could win that person

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Speaker 1: over by being Trump like. But like, in practice you

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Speaker 1: can see why that doesn't work because Trump goes straight

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Speaker 1: for your head. Like Trump's gonna push him down to

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Speaker 1: the ten. He's like, oh, you want to try to

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Speaker 1: win these people who like me? Okay, well I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: make that And so like that might work again a vacuum,

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Speaker 1: right if you had an academic study and you know

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Speaker 1: ran the primary out and you know in imaginary land

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Speaker 1: that the Desanta strategy might work. But in real land,

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Speaker 1: where Trump is crushing you, it's a lot harder to

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Speaker 1: pull off. It's prediction time. Oh god, And by the way,

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Speaker 1: if you're wrong, you don't get the blue coat or

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Speaker 1: the green coat, okay, the green jacket after actually be

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Speaker 1: right in every prediction. Yeah, yeah, it's a very high bar.

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Speaker 1: What case goes first. Yeah, to me, it seems like

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Speaker 1: Bragg is imminent. I know, the imminent word is like

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Speaker 1: an eye roll now and MSNBC at this point, all

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Speaker 1: signs point to that. I think the only thing that

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Speaker 1: would prevent a Brag from Big first is if he

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Speaker 1: steps off the ledge and just you know, or the

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Speaker 1: grand jury. You know, something happens in the final days

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Speaker 1: with the grand jury. So I think Brag is the

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Speaker 1: most likely. And to me, it seems like Jack Smith.

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Speaker 1: It seems like the federal stuff is moving very fast.

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Speaker 1: And then I think that the federal investigation, um, they're

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Speaker 1: conscious of the timeline, right like the debate start in August, right,

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Speaker 1: These guys don't want to be doing indictments in August,

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Speaker 1: right like after the campaign has really right, But they themselves,

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Speaker 1: I think, feel like there's some imaginary date in their minds.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it's the first debate, maybe it's after you know,

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Speaker 1: certain number people announce or whatever, where it's like the

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Speaker 1: campaign is on right now, like we can't interfere. So

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Speaker 1: I think that the federal stuff would happen next. And

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Speaker 1: then I don't have as much insight into what's happening

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Speaker 1: in Georgia. But that seems very live too. There's a

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Speaker 1: lot that there's a lot of live grenades out there.

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Speaker 1: So anyway, that's my half prediction is that bragg is

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Speaker 1: going to happen first, just not as quickly as we thought.

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Speaker 1: Tim Miller, thank you, Thank you. I'm JF. Justin Wolfers

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Speaker 1: is a professor at the University of Michigan and the

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Speaker 1: host of the podcast Think Like an Economist. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: Fast Politics, Justin and Fast Economics, Molly. So, I can't

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Speaker 1: decide whether to start with the raid hike or the

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Speaker 1: bank runs, So I'm going to let you choose. Yes,

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Speaker 1: let's get bank runs and just explain a little bit

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Speaker 1: about what happened with these bank runs and what they

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Speaker 1: meet in Yeah. So, if anyone has seen the movie

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Speaker 1: It's a Wonderful Life. Yes, what happens is someone in

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Speaker 1: town thinks that the bank may not have enough money

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Speaker 1: in its vault, so then they run to the bank,

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Speaker 1: and then other people along the way also think, oh no,

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Speaker 1: there might not be enough money in the vault, so

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Speaker 1: they also run. And so now there are a whole

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Speaker 1: lot of people inside the bank trying to withdraw their money,

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Speaker 1: and there's more people than there is money in the vault,

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Speaker 1: and so a bank run is the self fulfilling prophecy

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Speaker 1: when everyone fears there won't be money in the vault,

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Speaker 1: so they all want to get to the bank and

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Speaker 1: we draw their money before someone else takes the last dollar,

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Speaker 1: and then you end up with no money in the vault.

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Speaker 1: That was what happened in a wonderful life. That's what

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Speaker 1: happened throughout the Great Depression, and that is what happened

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Speaker 1: to Silicon Valley Bank. There's an interesting caveat which is

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Speaker 1: wealthy venture capitalists were involved in this bank run, so

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Speaker 1: a particularly unsympathetic bunch of characters. The way a bank

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Speaker 1: run goes down is actually kind of everyone's a little selfish, right,

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Speaker 1: You're like, I hear the banks in trouble. You could

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Speaker 1: pull the manager enough he support, but you can raise

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Speaker 1: there to beat your neighbor. And if you really want

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Speaker 1: to think of who's most likely to exhibit that sort

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Speaker 1: of behavior, pet Teal's pretty high on my list. Supposedly though,

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Speaker 1: and I want to I want to ask you about this.

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Speaker 1: Supposedly he did not. He is saying, at least he

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Speaker 1: said to some journalists that he had fifty million in

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Speaker 1: that bank, and he did not pull his money out.

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Speaker 1: That said Founder's fund, which is a fund that he

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Speaker 1: has some affiliation with, UM did pull its money out.

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Speaker 1: And pet Teal has a long history of always telling

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Speaker 1: the truth, the whole truth, and nothing about the truth. Well,

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Speaker 1: my favorite is David Sachs. Who can you who's a

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Speaker 1: venture capital? I mean, I don't, I can't tell. Can

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Speaker 1: we say, like this is just like a gallery of pricks?

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Speaker 1: Can we say? David Sacks is a entrepreneur who is

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Speaker 1: a middle aged guy who went to Stanford and blocked

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Speaker 1: me on Twitter. He was another spreneur involved in this.

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Speaker 1: But you know what I think is pretty interesting about

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Speaker 1: all of these libertarians is that the minute Silicon Valley

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Speaker 1: Bank was in trouble, they weren't crying not to their

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Speaker 1: own bootstraps, but to the federal government because of a

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Speaker 1: much broader and much harder truth, which is that even

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Speaker 1: if you're the most fervent believer in market forces, while

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Speaker 1: we're on markets require regulation. And nowhere is that more

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Speaker 1: clearly the case than we're thinking about the banks making system.

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Speaker 1: Banks have what economists call multiple equilibria, And I'm going

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Speaker 1: to explain that Molly before you never invite me back. Yes,

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Speaker 1: go basically most days of the week, probably in January

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Speaker 1: twenty third last year, you woke up and you thought,

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Speaker 1: to yourself, finance is so boring. I promise not to

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Speaker 1: think about it all day. And that's an equilibrium because

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Speaker 1: if everyone does that, we'll just leave our money in

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Speaker 1: the bank and the next day's boring. What happened at

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Speaker 1: the end of last week was a bunch of people

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Speaker 1: woke up and they said, I'm worried them may not

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Speaker 1: be enough money in the vault. And it may not

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Speaker 1: even be I'm worried. It could be molly that I'm

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Speaker 1: worried that you're worried. Now, if I'm worried that you're

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Speaker 1: worried there's not enough money in the vault, I'm worried

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Speaker 1: you're going to go withdraw your money and then there'll

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Speaker 1: be no money in the vault. And so what I

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Speaker 1: do is I run. And that's the other equilibrium, the

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Speaker 1: other outcome. And so the thing is banks can flip

425
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 1: from the good boring state to the oh my god,

426
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,440
Speaker 1: I've got to beat you their state just overnight. Click

427
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:28,879
Speaker 1: your fingers, just like that. It turns out remarkable fact

428
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 1: here the economics to solve the problem of bank runs

429
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,959
Speaker 1: solved it, totally solved it. So if you look at

430
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:36,439
Speaker 1: the number of bank runs that occurred in the US,

431
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 1: they're incredibly common all the way through the eighteen hundreds,

432
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,640
Speaker 1: the nineteen hundreds up until the Great Depression, or an

433
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 1: enormous number of bank runs destroyed the financial system, and

434
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:47,640
Speaker 1: in the wake of the Great Depression were instituted what's

435
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:52,680
Speaker 1: called deposit insurance. Deposit insurance says well, if your bank

436
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 1: goes bast we will pay you back, We'll give you

437
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 1: the money. And so what that means, Molly is let's

438
00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 1: go back to January twenty third. Remember that was a

439
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:01,680
Speaker 1: morning you work up and you thought finances so boring.

440
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 1: I promised not to think about it. If you have

441
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 1: less than two hundred and fifty thousand dollars every day,

442
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 1: is that boring? Right? And if you think the day

443
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,199
Speaker 1: is boring, then I don't need to run to the

444
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 1: bank to withdraw my money before you do, because I

445
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 1: know that you think it's boring. So deposit insurance solved

446
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,680
Speaker 1: the problem. You might well, but justin there was a

447
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 1: bank run. The thing about Silicon Valley Bank is all

448
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,159
Speaker 1: of its depositors were not all A huge number of

449
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 1: its depositors were VC and startups. The thing about those

450
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 1: folks is they have gobs of money, heaps of it piles.

451
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,200
Speaker 1: You're only inshored up to two hundred and fifty thousand dollars.

452
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 1: So what that meant was all the folks you mentioned before,

453
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 1: they're effectively uninsured. And so what that meant is that bank,

454
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 1: and that bank alone effectively was outside the framework that

455
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 1: has prevented bank runs from being a major feature of

456
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 1: American life ever since the Great Depression. But what happened

457
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,880
Speaker 1: was that the Biden administration actually did what the Silk

458
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,639
Speaker 1: and Valley people wanted them to do, which was to

459
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,639
Speaker 1: guarantee over a two hundred and fifty thousand Yeah, so

460
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 1: let's go back to David Sachs and his brethren. So

461
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 1: when a bank run happens one bank, that took a

462
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 1: lot of bets, and maybe you should have known better

463
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:16,360
Speaker 1: than to put your money there. If you're a super

464
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 1: smart Silicon Valley millionaire, when one bank goes south, you know,

465
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 1: like that's bad for you. And I just want to

466
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 1: be clear about the stakes here, by the way, which

467
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 1: is there's probably enough value in the organization that David

468
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 1: Sacks was going to get ninety cents out of every

469
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 1: dollar that he'd deposited. So this was not like losing

470
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 1: all your money anyway. It was like losing a tenth

471
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: of all your money. By Monday morning, you would have

472
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 1: got half of it, and within a few weeks you

473
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 1: would have got I'm guessing ninety percent or even one

474
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 1: hundred percent of money back. There's educated guesses. So when

475
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 1: your bank's going south, you don't want anyone else to

476
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 1: know about it, because that will actually cause it to

477
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 1: go south. As soon as your banks collapse, though, what

478
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 1: you want to do is create fear elsewhere, which is

479
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 1: what David Sachs did. These guys, libertarian heroes went to

480
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 1: Twitter and started screaming the banking systems collapsing. Washington has

481
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 1: to do something now. And that's because it wanted you

482
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 1: and I to believe that our bank might collapse. And

483
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:17,880
Speaker 1: in fact, if they succeeded, that would have been enough

484
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 1: for my bank to collapse. If enough people were fearful,

485
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 1: they would have withdrawn their money. We would have had

486
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 1: another old fashioned bankrupt and at that point that's called contagion.

487
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 1: And the federal government has to do something to stop

488
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 1: this spreading to a million other banks. So that's why

489
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:37,400
Speaker 1: these guys incredible misbehavior are screaming the whole systems going down,

490
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,159
Speaker 1: despite the fact that they knew they were going to

491
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 1: get at least ninety percent of their money back. And

492
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 1: it's because they wanted to create the macroeconomic conditions that

493
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:49,880
Speaker 1: would give the government no choice but to rescue them.

494
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 1: And it created not just the economic conditions, but also

495
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 1: the political conditions, and so the government effectively said, hey,

496
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 1: you know what, remember that part where he said everyone's

497
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: insured for the first two hundred and fifty thousand dollars,

498
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:04,919
Speaker 1: just kidding, everyone's insured for everything, which would be like

499
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 1: totally awesome if it applied to the rest of our lives. Well,

500
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 1: it's good to see libertarians getting away with it because,

501
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: i mean, you know, good for them. Now, these people

502
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 1: are not going to see any it's just hard warming.

503
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 1: I mean, none of what they did was illegal. No

504
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 1: one was going to go to jail for this. This

505
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 1: is just another day of fun in manipulating markets. Right. Yeah,

506
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 1: But let's not minimize that, Molly. Let's call bad behavior

507
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: bad behavior. Let's call trying to cause economic destruction terrible.

508
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 1: Let's call trying to drag down the financial system in

509
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 1: order to get your bailout deplorable. May not be illegal, yeah,

510
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 1: but it is morally reprehensible, though I'm not sure morally

511
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 1: reprehensible is something that these guys consider to be a

512
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 1: bad thing. We lost like two of these regional banks.

513
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 1: I mean, do you think the rest of the banks

514
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 1: are safe? Number one? It seems like his time has passed.

515
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 1: We're getting a sense that they are. Let's pose there. Yes,

516
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:01,640
Speaker 1: And the reason he is Silicon Valley Bank was unusual

517
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,680
Speaker 1: in two respects. One, it was essentially uninsured because it

518
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 1: had all rich customers. Two, what management did is they

519
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 1: went off to the casino and laid some big bets

520
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 1: and banking one I one is you don't do that?

521
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,239
Speaker 1: And the other thing I want to ask you is

522
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,159
Speaker 1: it seems to me, like with the railroads, that this

523
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 1: would be a case for a regulation would have prevented Certainly,

524
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,360
Speaker 1: you know regulation would have prevented this. I mean, will

525
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: there be regulation? And do you believe that? So there

526
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:37,199
Speaker 1: are a variety of different responses, all of which I

527
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 1: believe so a different answer. I don't know how you

528
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 1: feel about this is maybe we should have insured all

529
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 1: deposits to start with, because if everyone's deposits, even billionaires,

530
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 1: were insured, then none of them have will start a

531
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: bank run because they all know that their money will

532
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 1: be there whether they go on with draw it or not.

533
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 1: So that's one possibility. It's a form of regulation. Another

534
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 1: answer is maybe we should be pretty comfortable with where

535
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,719
Speaker 1: we're at, which is we ensure most deposits, just not

536
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:10,679
Speaker 1: the super rich. But we shouldn't allow banks to only

537
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 1: cater to those who are uninsured, as Silicon Valley Bank did.

538
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 1: Another answer is what Silicon Valley Bank did was the

539
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 1: double whammy of being uninsured and then taking the money

540
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: to the casino. Why was it allowed to take it

541
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 1: to the casino? And I should be clear to your

542
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 1: listeners what it actually did was brought long term government bonds,

543
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 1: which sounds like it's safe government bonds. That sounds safe,

544
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: but long term government bonds is effectively betting that interest

545
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 1: rates will be low forever, and so it took a

546
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:39,199
Speaker 1: bet I call that going to the casino. So it

547
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 1: used to be that banks of Silicon Valley Bank's size

548
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: were subject to closer supervision by the authorities to make

549
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 1: sure they don't go to the casino. And then in

550
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, Silicon Valley Bank and other small and regional

551
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 1: banks went to Washington, looked the authorities in the eye

552
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 1: and said, we are not systemically important. You don't need

553
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:03,399
Speaker 1: to worry about us. We shouldn't be regulated like this.

554
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 1: Just you know, if we screw up, let us fail

555
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,239
Speaker 1: and it won't have a big problem. They succeeded, and

556
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 1: so the regulations were weakened. That helped allow them to

557
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 1: go to the casino. And then of course they go

558
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 1: to the casino, they lose all their money, and then

559
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 1: they say, just kidding, federal government, we're really important. If

560
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 1: you don't say if us, she'll bring the economy down.

561
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 1: And they ended up getting pailed out. Just amazing stuff.

562
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 1: So talk to me about the rate hikes. Inflation has

563
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:37,920
Speaker 1: not gone away, or at least the anxiety inflation has

564
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 1: not gone away. So if you're used to thinking about

565
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 1: inflation over recent months as being say six or seven

566
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 1: or eight percent, I've got really good news for you.

567
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 1: It's probably closer to four four points something. It may

568
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 1: be coming down, but it may not be because the

569
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 1: recent news hasn't been as exciting or positive as we

570
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 1: might have hoped. And so that then means the Fed's

571
00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 1: got to do something to bring down inflation. And what

572
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 1: it normally does as it raises interest rates. And before

573
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 1: this financial mess, it had suggested it might even raise

574
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 1: interest rates by half a percent today, and today it

575
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 1: decided to go for the simple no surprises approach and

576
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 1: raised interest rates by about a quarter of a percent.

577
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 1: And it's very hard to fault its logic here. I

578
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 1: think there are some who are going to be concerned that, wow,

579
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 1: maybe they shouldn't have raised interest rates at all given

580
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 1: the distress in the banking system. But what you heard

581
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 1: from Chairman Powell was actually a fair bit of confidence that,

582
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,479
Speaker 1: you know what, those guys at Silicon Valley Bank were

583
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 1: a bunch of Wacker hurdles and we don't think other

584
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 1: banks look like that, and we don't think that they're

585
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 1: that important to their broader economy. And in any case,

586
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 1: the way we fix those problems is what we do

587
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 1: is we lend money to banks who don't have enough

588
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 1: in the vault. So we have a solution. So we

589
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 1: use lending money to banks providing liquidity is the tool

590
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 1: for solving financial distress and then we go back to

591
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 1: using good old fashioned interest rates to glob or inflation.

592
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 1: And that seems to be what Powell is trying to do. Like,

593
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 1: if you were power, would you do this? I were power,

594
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 1: there'd be a lot more listeners to your podcast. They

595
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 1: may not be the listeners you want. I think it's

596
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 1: a very sensible, very defensible, straight down the middle of

597
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 1: the line, straight down the middle of the road view.

598
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: I think if one we're looking for a liberal critique,

599
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 1: it's the one that Elizabeth Warren has correctly raised, which

600
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 1: is when we raise interest rates to reduce inflation, what

601
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 1: we're doing is we are saying we are going to

602
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 1: throw some people out of work, sacrifice them on the

603
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,719
Speaker 1: altar of lower inflation. And once you start to think

604
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 1: about those people, you start to think, well, maybe we

605
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 1: should really be sure we need to do it. And

606
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 1: so that would be like, I really don't want to

607
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 1: believe inflation. Is this stubborn, But I'm really going to

608
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 1: wait until they learn that rather than accidentally overdoing it.

609
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 1: That would be I think the liberal critique, and I

610
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 1: think it's quite serious. The conservative critique would be if

611
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 1: you sit back and let inflation take hold. Everyone's just

612
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 1: going to get used to it, and then inflation becomes

613
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 1: a self fulfilling prophecy where I ask for higher wages

614
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 1: because my customer living rose, and then my employer raises

615
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 1: its prices because it's wage bill rose. Unfortunately, we're not

616
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 1: in that position, and so I do think that you know,

617
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 1: there are a range of arguments, but it's a pretty

618
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 1: defensible view. Now Here. We are in this kind of

619
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 1: period where there's a lot of anxiety that we're headed

620
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 1: towards a recession, but really no one knows, right, No

621
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 1: one ever knows. Economists are fantastic at predicting recessions approximately

622
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 1: two to three months after they begin. What are the

623
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 1: indicators you're looking at and what are they telling you?

624
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 1: So I'm an optimist. Now, I want to be clear,

625
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: I'm not promising your listeners there will be no recession.

626
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 1: In fact, I think the simplest way of thinking about

627
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 1: it is, over the past century, there's been fourteen recessions.

628
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 1: So that says in any given year, there's a one

629
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: in seven chance or a recession. And then so I reckon,

630
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 1: why not think about that this year? Now, A lot

631
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 1: of people are a lot more pessimistic than I am.

632
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 1: They're like interest rates are high, so therefore we might

633
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 1: think it's more likely maybe, but you know, they're not

634
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 1: that high. And I is a very simple rule of thumb,

635
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 1: the very the single best indicator for the future path

636
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 1: of the economy is how's it going now? It tends

637
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 1: to repeat itself, and things are pretty good right now.

638
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 1: Unemployment is at a fifty year may have been a

639
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 1: tick higher this month. The rate of job growth over

640
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 1: recent months has been at a level that in normal

641
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 1: times would be called a boom. Yet for some reason,

642
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 1: the headlines are being recession. So I think there is

643
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 1: an enormous disjunction between the extraordinary pessimism I hear out

644
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 1: there in the actual heart economic numbers, which so far

645
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 1: I keep being amazed. But so far just keep looking

646
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 1: really really good, and let's just keep hoping it continues. Yeah,

647
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 1: I mean, look, you know what else, or what are

648
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 1: the other choices? What are the things that you're like

649
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 1: a little bit worried about in your head. The FEDS

650
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 1: put out its latest forecast today, and one reason I

651
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 1: pay a lot of attention to that is the FED

652
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 1: as an institution is literally hundreds of PhD economists who

653
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 1: spend their whole day just noodling over numbers, and as

654
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 1: far as we can tell, they're the single best predictor

655
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 1: of the state of the future of the economy. Really

656
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 1: does see the economy slowing over next year. Now, I

657
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 1: want to be clear, they're also not infallible, so that

658
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 1: gives me real concern. I worry about the rest of

659
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 1: the world. What's going you know. I think there are

660
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 1: a lot of things that could go wrong there. I

661
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 1: think the biggest, dumbest, stupidest thing that could happen is

662
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 1: that the federal government will decide to default on the

663
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 1: debt as a result of debt ceiling brinksmanship within Congress.

664
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 1: And I think this is a wildly dysfunctional Congress, and

665
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 1: simply refusing to pay your bills is just punching the

666
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 1: American economy in the face. And given that the right

667
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 1: wing of the Republican Party already like punching Kevin McCarthy

668
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 1: in the face, I think they like regular Americans even less.

669
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 1: So I worry a lot about that. Yeah, I mean too,

670
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us. I hope you'll

671
00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 1: come back. The great pleasure mane. Charlie Savage is a

672
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 1: Washington correspondent at The New York Times. Welcome to you

673
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 1: Fast Politics, Charlie. Thanks for having me up. Delighted to

674
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 1: have you so super interesting moment in American media. Donald

675
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 1: Trump told us he was going to be arrested on Tuesday.

676
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: It is now Thursday, and nothing true. We of course something,

677
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 1: which is that Alvin Bragm, Manhattan District Attorney, is continuing

678
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 1: to work with a grand jury in New York and

679
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:36,360
Speaker 1: seems to be close to a final decision to seek

680
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 1: an indictment. But Trump obviously had no actual knowledge that

681
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:42,359
Speaker 1: he was going to be arrested on Tuesday or this

682
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 1: would be done on Tuesday, but was throwing out a

683
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 1: specific day as sort of a call to arms to

684
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,879
Speaker 1: his supporters, which is now come and gone. That doesn't

685
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,280
Speaker 1: mean nothing is happening, though, It just means that Tuesday

686
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: was made up. So explain to us a little bit,

687
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 1: because what so I wanted you to talk about this

688
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 1: piece that you just did. Possible Trump indictment puts attention

689
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 1: on execution for real discretion, because we're in a situation

690
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 1: where there are so many possible cases for this defendant

691
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,479
Speaker 1: that the question we've hit a moment of like who

692
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:15,360
Speaker 1: goes first? Right, there is a sequencing issue, not that

693
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 1: anyone has the authority to tell one prosecutor versus another

694
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 1: in New York or Georgia or Washington, DC. You have

695
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,720
Speaker 1: to wait for this unrelated other matter to go first.

696
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 1: They're all kind of independent agents here, which is a

697
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 1: little bit chaotic where you have seen a lot of

698
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 1: commentary of people who are critical of Trump and Drew

699
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 1: Saint that he committed various crimes and should be held

700
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 1: accountable for that. So people that elk nevertheless wringing their

701
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:49,320
Speaker 1: hands over the prospect that this case will go first.

702
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 1: Is this the first case to break that seal? And

703
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,720
Speaker 1: for the first time in American history, an ex president

704
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,840
Speaker 1: is being charged with a crime, This ex president in particular,

705
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: being charged with a crime when the matter at hand,

706
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:07,720
Speaker 1: apparently bookkeeping fraud to cover up a campaign europe payment

707
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 1: to a porn star, is obviously so much less significant

708
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 1: than the events surrounding January six and attempts to overturn

709
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 1: the election, or even holding on to classified documents and

710
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:25,240
Speaker 1: obstructing the government's efforts to retrieve them the other matters

711
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:29,320
Speaker 1: at hand, not just because the actions seem to be tawdry,

712
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 1: as they are less important than those other things, but

713
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 1: also because there is a sense that the legal theory

714
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 1: the album Brag the Manhattan da is considering may itself

715
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:43,680
Speaker 1: be novel in some way. And the problem is we

716
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 1: don't really know what his theory of the case is,

717
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 1: and there's been a lot of speculation, but that speculation

718
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:54,280
Speaker 1: may be raw. But the issue is that we're pretty

719
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 1: confident that he's primary charged is bookkeeping fraud for writing

720
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 1: and Trump organization records that repayments to Michael Cohen for

721
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 1: this payoff to Stormy Daniels were for a legal retainer

722
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 1: that didn't exist, as opposed to writing down what they

723
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:14,439
Speaker 1: were actually for, which is reimbursing him for this hush

724
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 1: money payment during the election. I mean, is that a

725
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 1: tax fraud issue or is that a campaign fraud issue? Well,

726
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 1: that's the issue. So bookkeeping fraud in the state law

727
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 1: is normally, if it's just by itself, it's a crime,

728
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 1: but it's not a big crime. It's a misdemeanor two

729
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 1: year statuted limitations. You're not going to you're not going

730
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 1: to go after a president on misdemeanor. That's old, But

731
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 1: it becomes a felony. The fraud was for the purpose

732
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 1: of committing or covering up a second crime. So that's

733
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:49,719
Speaker 1: the question. One is the second crime that Bragg is

734
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:53,319
Speaker 1: thinking about. There's been chatter that it may be a

735
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 1: campaign finance violation. Michael Cohen pleaded guilty in federal court

736
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 1: to violating campaign finance law by making this payment and

737
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 1: not disclosing it. But that's a federal charge. Presidential campaigns

738
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 1: are regulated by federal laws. Or raises the question of

739
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 1: whether a state prosecutor who doesn't have jurisdiction over federal

740
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 1: law can invoke that. Is there some way of making

741
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 1: it a state campaign law and so people are nervous

742
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 1: about doing something that hadn't been done before. It may

743
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 1: also be the case that everyone is wrong, and Bragg

744
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 1: has some other set of evidence it's not public, that

745
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 1: perhaps Trump intended to for I'm just making this up now, right,

746
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 1: Perhaps he has evidence that Trump intended to deduct those

747
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:40,440
Speaker 1: payments to go in right state, to take a tax

748
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 1: right off on his payment to a sexual partner. YEA,

749
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 1: By the way, I would not put it past him.

750
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:47,800
Speaker 1: But I want to ask you, and I want to

751
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 1: go back to something we were talking about a minute ago,

752
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:52,799
Speaker 1: which is you said that there is sort of confidence

753
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 1: that Brag is still meeting about this indictment. Can you

754
00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 1: explain to me where that comes from. Well, the DA's

755
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 1: office is locked down, but the people who are called

756
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,960
Speaker 1: for the grand jury to testify are allowed to talk

757
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 1: about what they were asked. Lawyers for people who are

758
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 1: being given a chance to try to head off an

759
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 1: indictment or the defendant potential defendant itself are free to

760
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:23,760
Speaker 1: talk about it. And so in these investigations, even without

761
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 1: there necessarily being inappropriate leaks from a prosecutor's office, especially

762
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:30,880
Speaker 1: if it's high profile enough, the high mind of the

763
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:34,320
Speaker 1: press corps is generally able to suss out puzzle pieces

764
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 1: that give us an idea of what's going on and

765
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 1: whether the grand jury is being used for this purpose

766
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 1: on this day or being asked to ask some unrelated case.

767
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: It looks like this is not going to be resolved

768
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 1: this week, and so it continues, and in the meantime

769
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 1: then people there's the void is filled by this commentary.

770
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:54,239
Speaker 1: Is this the case to go first? Is this the

771
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:58,800
Speaker 1: weakest case relative to the others, at least is Bragg

772
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 1: it's going to be vulnerable here to attacks from Trump

773
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 1: in his world that he's doing something that's never been

774
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:09,799
Speaker 1: done before selectively for political reasons. And so that that

775
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:14,759
Speaker 1: discussing into those issues of prosecutorial discression. What is selective prosecution?

776
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 1: What would Trump have to show if you did get

777
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:19,439
Speaker 1: charged and brought that was the purpose of that piece

778
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:22,360
Speaker 1: you brought up. I guess that group is meeting today,

779
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 1: but not about this. Can you explain that, Well, a

780
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 1: grand jury is not convened generally for one particular investigation.

781
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,799
Speaker 1: The grand jury might have several unrelated batters. And so

782
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 1: there are reports out of New York that the grand

783
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:39,760
Speaker 1: jury is not focused on this case today, in which case,

784
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 1: assuming that it's correct, they're you know, they're not going

785
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:44,759
Speaker 1: to make a decision today, of course that you know,

786
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 1: maybe this is wrong. And by three pm the world

787
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 1: looks very different. But there's a whole lot of like

788
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 1: looking at this through a glass darkly for all of

789
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 1: us on the outside. Right, there's this case, there's a

790
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 1: possible DOJ case, right, we don't really know if that

791
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:02,319
Speaker 1: where that is right? Two possible federal cases, both of

792
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 1: which are being handled by the Special Council of Jack Smith,

793
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 1: one about Trump's attempts to overturn the election leading up

794
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:12,319
Speaker 1: to encompassing the events of January six and the other

795
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 1: about the classified documents at Marlago and obstructing the efforts

796
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 1: to get them back. And then there's Georgia. Yes, And

797
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:23,839
Speaker 1: then the local prosecutor in Atlanta Fulton County in Georgia

798
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:28,719
Speaker 1: has a January sixth investigation of her own going focused

799
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 1: on Trump's attempts to overturn Biden's narrow win in Georgia,

800
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 1: specifically including the famous taped and leaked phone call to

801
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:40,760
Speaker 1: the Secretary of State which Trump asked him to quote

802
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 1: find the ten thousand or so votes he needed to

803
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:47,840
Speaker 1: flip the outcome, and efforts to get Trump supporters to

804
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 1: declare themselves to be electoral voters electoral college voters, which

805
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:56,320
Speaker 1: would then set up Mike Pence to not certify the election.

806
00:41:56,680 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 1: Isn't there another Georgia case? There's another phone collumns. Sorry,

807
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,240
Speaker 1: there's a phone call that we didn't really know about.

808
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 1: There are multiple phone calls in Georgia, multiple efforts to

809
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 1: get people in to pressure Georgia officials to find a

810
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:12,839
Speaker 1: way to flip the outcome of that election. And so

811
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 1: the Fannie Willis, the DA down there is looking at

812
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:19,759
Speaker 1: both that on election crimes related to that and the

813
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 1: fake electors piece, and she has indicated that she's also

814
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 1: looking at a racketeering tis an interesting twist. Racketeering charges

815
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 1: were written to deal with criminal organizations like the mafia gangs,

816
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 1: where you had groups of people working together committing a

817
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 1: series of crimes, but all with a common purpose. And

818
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 1: so she seems to be toying with the notion that

819
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:47,439
Speaker 1: Trump and his associates were together committing various crimes, all

820
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 1: with the unified purpose of trying to flip that election,

821
00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:54,800
Speaker 1: and that potentially could violate RICO, the racketeering one. Until

822
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 1: she puts together her a grand jury, there will be

823
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 1: no charges out of Georgia and there is no grand

824
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:04,879
Speaker 1: jury yet. So yes, people may have heard that there

825
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,839
Speaker 1: was a grand jury, and famously the chairwoman of that

826
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:14,399
Speaker 1: went on this somewhat crazy publicity tour giving interviews. Yeah,

827
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:18,320
Speaker 1: not necessarily coming off as the most serious looking person.

828
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 1: But that was a special grand jury that was merely

829
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 1: it's this thing that doesn't exist in federal law. It

830
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 1: was merely to gather evidence. That is to be the

831
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 1: body that oversees people testifying and turning over documents. But

832
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 1: we're a longer term investigation. It lacks the authority to

833
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 1: decide whether to actually bring charge. It will make recommendations.

834
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:39,439
Speaker 1: So Fannie Will still needs to decide whether she wants

835
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:43,200
Speaker 1: to ask a regular grand jury does this pile of

836
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 1: testimony and documents add up to chargeable offenses? And as

837
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 1: far as we know, she hadn't decided whether or not

838
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 1: she's going to do that at this point. So there

839
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 1: definitely are steps in the Georgia case that would need

840
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 1: to happen before anything happened. Well, and in the New

841
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:01,480
Speaker 1: York case and in the recent case. Trump has not

842
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 1: been charged, No grand jury has voted to invite him anywhere,

843
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:07,919
Speaker 1: but all kinds of things are boiling. Do you think

844
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 1: that Trump? And again, I know how annoying it is

845
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:12,959
Speaker 1: to come on this podcast and for me to ask

846
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 1: opinion questions because you're a straight journalist, but I'm going

847
00:44:15,719 --> 00:44:17,399
Speaker 1: to ask you an opinion question, but at least it's

848
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:21,359
Speaker 1: not partisan. Since Saturday, we have sort of lived this

849
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:24,799
Speaker 1: news cycle that was a little bit of Trump's making, right,

850
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,919
Speaker 1: even if there were absolutely do you think Trump sort

851
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:30,800
Speaker 1: of won that news cycle? I mean, well, He certainly

852
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 1: focused attention on this, and he put his rival RHNDA

853
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:40,520
Speaker 1: scantists on the hot seat, sort of forced him to

854
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:42,840
Speaker 1: show his hand a little bit about whether he was

855
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 1: going to be on Trump's side or let Trump stew here.

856
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 1: In that sense, he at least was controlling the narrative.

857
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:51,279
Speaker 1: He decided, this is what we were on them to

858
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:53,319
Speaker 1: talk about, and we did. An element of this. Which

859
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 1: is interesting though, is that part of his commentary since

860
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 1: Saturday morning has been a very clear call to arms,

861
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 1: helping them to protest. Now was the time protest protest protests,

862
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:06,720
Speaker 1: notably not using the word peacefully. Yes, he did once

863
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 1: in his notorious January sixth speech, and so then when

864
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 1: people later accused him of assitement, his supporters could say, no,

865
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:14,319
Speaker 1: he said peacefully, you know, in the middle of all

866
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:16,200
Speaker 1: that other stuff. He finally did, by the way, say

867
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:21,399
Speaker 1: peacefully this morning in a true social post that used

868
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:24,880
Speaker 1: the word very insidiously. Right. He didn't say, go protest peacefully.

869
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:27,439
Speaker 1: He said, you know, I'm in a said Bragg's out

870
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,600
Speaker 1: of control. He's an animal. They're destroying our country, and

871
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:34,719
Speaker 1: they tell us to be peaceful, you know, right, kind

872
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 1: of the opposite of urging people to be peaceful. Right, So,

873
00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:41,879
Speaker 1: but what I was getting at is the protest that

874
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 1: he called for have not seen much of a response.

875
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:49,880
Speaker 1: There's been a few sort of halfhearted gatherings of small

876
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 1: numbers of people that are generally outnumbered by the number

877
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:55,440
Speaker 1: of media who showed up to see what was going

878
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:58,319
Speaker 1: to happen. And so maybe some of that is just

879
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,319
Speaker 1: no one really knows when the day is, If he's

880
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 1: actually in the courthouse, maybe you know, being fingerprinted, maybe

881
00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 1: people will spontaneously flow there. But it's raising the prospect

882
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:12,840
Speaker 1: that January sixth was a one off and that his

883
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:15,399
Speaker 1: supporters aren't willing to do that again. All kinds of

884
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:18,879
Speaker 1: you know, people rotting in jail and having to pay

885
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 1: for their own bills. And also this you know that

886
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:24,360
Speaker 1: was about obviously it was a lie, but the election

887
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 1: was stolen. Your vote was taken away from you, and

888
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 1: maybe that's more galvanizing than hey, they're trying to charge

889
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:32,839
Speaker 1: me with their crime over this payoff to a porn star,

890
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 1: which lacks that sort of your vote was element. But

891
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 1: in any case, we'll see what is he still able

892
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:43,880
Speaker 1: to create or not, you know, to be exciting. He

893
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 1: may have revealed himself to not be able to reassemble. Well,

894
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 1: I don't want to predict he hasn't been able to

895
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:53,240
Speaker 1: do that. But if he isn't able to reassemble a mob,

896
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:55,920
Speaker 1: that maybe people in his own party and such, to me,

897
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 1: we consider how deferential they want to be to him. Yeah,

898
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:04,239
Speaker 1: I mean that is a certainly very interesting situation where

899
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:07,799
Speaker 1: you have members of the Republican Party more willing to

900
00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 1: defend him than anyone else. I mean you have to wonder,

901
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 1: like we had thought for such a long time that

902
00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:17,760
Speaker 1: it was the base, but what if it's the party

903
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:21,480
Speaker 1: itself that has Stockholm syndrome? Right? I mean you don't

904
00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 1: have to answer that, because I know you was like

905
00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:28,040
Speaker 1: a real reporter, I will neither. But so I want

906
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 1: to ask you what else are you watching for? Again,

907
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:33,440
Speaker 1: we're not going to predict, you know, we taping this

908
00:47:33,680 --> 00:47:36,280
Speaker 1: on whatever day this is. It will come out on Friday.

909
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:38,320
Speaker 1: We're not going to try to predict what's going to happen.

910
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 1: But what else are you watching for in the macro

911
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:46,719
Speaker 1: micro level whatever? Just tell me what you're looking at? Right,

912
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 1: So I'll say two things. One is the piece that

913
00:47:49,320 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 1: you mentioned earlier about prosectual discretion. Make it at something

914
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:56,840
Speaker 1: that becomes important if Trump is charged and then his

915
00:47:56,960 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 1: lawyers file a motion to dismiss on the basis of

916
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:07,280
Speaker 1: prosecutorial misconduct or selective prosecution, which certainly his pr statements

917
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:10,680
Speaker 1: are pointing towards. You know, this was politically motivated, and

918
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:13,360
Speaker 1: no one a weak case, no one else would be

919
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 1: charged with this. Therefore it's improper. As I understand it

920
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:19,560
Speaker 1: from having read the cases now and talked to a

921
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 1: number of professors who've written in this space. The fact

922
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 1: that there's never been a case quite like this before

923
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 1: may get Trump some traction in the court of public

924
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 1: opinion and try to portray it this way. He will

925
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:37,840
Speaker 1: have tremendous difficulty in an actual court of proving selective prosecution,

926
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:40,799
Speaker 1: because what he would need to show is that other

927
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:43,399
Speaker 1: people have in New York has to be the same

928
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 1: prosecutor's office. Can't just be you know, someone in North

929
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 1: Carolina or whatever. Other people in New York have done

930
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 1: this same thing, these same action, and the prosecutor chose

931
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 1: not to charge them, and those other people had invoked

932
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 1: their First Amendment rights to have different expressed different political

933
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 1: views them with me, right, because he has to be

934
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:05,880
Speaker 1: an exercise of a constitutional right or some disfavored category

935
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:09,320
Speaker 1: of like religion or race, like people are being treated

936
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 1: differently based on one of these things. And so it's

937
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:15,920
Speaker 1: just not there are any other examples of New Yorkers

938
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:22,319
Speaker 1: falsifying business records to cover up campaign era payoffs to

939
00:49:22,480 --> 00:49:26,200
Speaker 1: people that are embarrassing, even if they're otherwise lawful. And

940
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:30,960
Speaker 1: so if he can't point to other examples, Roman Manhattan

941
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:34,239
Speaker 1: DA could have charged someone with this and didn't, he

942
00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:37,759
Speaker 1: will not succeed in a selected prosecution case. So that

943
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 1: was interesting, very very difficult, and it's apparently has been

944
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:44,040
Speaker 1: like a century since even anyone that's succeeded in selected

945
00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 1: prosecution claim, even though defendants raise it all the time.

946
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:49,759
Speaker 1: So that's what. The other thing that's interesting that going

947
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:54,279
Speaker 1: on right now is House Republicans Jim Jordan at all

948
00:49:54,719 --> 00:49:59,040
Speaker 1: comer have been sort of galanized into action to try

949
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 1: to help Trump and have been demanding information, demanding testimony,

950
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:07,759
Speaker 1: demanding documents from Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan DA who this

951
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:11,600
Speaker 1: Morning's had his lawyers send them back a letter saying,

952
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 1: buzz off this federalism. You have no legitimate purpose in

953
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 1: doing this. Even the federal DOJ does not tell you

954
00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 1: about open investigations. We're a state court as well, sovereign

955
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:27,319
Speaker 1: state of New York Tenth Amendment array of defenses. And

956
00:50:27,480 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 1: it appears to me that it is likely that this

957
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 1: is just the beginning and there will be similar attempts

958
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:38,760
Speaker 1: by the House DPD to get into the Georgia case,

959
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:42,319
Speaker 1: maybe the Jack and the Jack Smith two cases we

960
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:45,640
Speaker 1: may be ending up with. Can they get something to

961
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:48,640
Speaker 1: the floor for contempt? If these prosecutors tell them to

962
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 1: go away, will we be back in court as we

963
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 1: were with The politics flipped one hundred and eighty degrees

964
00:50:55,520 --> 00:50:57,839
Speaker 1: in the last two years of the Trump administration, when

965
00:50:57,840 --> 00:51:02,480
Speaker 1: the Democratic controlled House kept keening entities ranging from Trump's

966
00:51:02,520 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 1: former lawyer Don Began, White House Council month Don Agan,

967
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:11,960
Speaker 1: to Mazurs, his financial accounting firm, and sort of Trump World.

968
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:16,440
Speaker 1: People were arguing, these subpoenas are invalid, These go beyond

969
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:20,560
Speaker 1: Congress is legitimate legislative authority. This is just you know,

970
00:51:20,640 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 1: political fishing expeditions, and therefore, judge, you should quash the subpoena.

971
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 1: You know, it used to be exceedingly rare for Congress

972
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:32,760
Speaker 1: to be in court pursuing litigation over trying to enforce subpoenas,

973
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:36,040
Speaker 1: and that became kind of commonplace in the last two

974
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:40,080
Speaker 1: years of Trump. Fancy stonewalled the Democratic House, and I

975
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 1: think that same set of issues is going to be

976
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:45,800
Speaker 1: all over the place again now and we're starting to

977
00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:48,440
Speaker 1: see the leading edge of that, except now it'll be

978
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:54,840
Speaker 1: Republican House trying to get its subpoenas enforced. Yeah, ironee yes, yeah,

979
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:57,839
Speaker 1: thank you so much. This was so interesting. I really

980
00:51:57,840 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 1: appreciate you. Thanks, Charlie, my plan, sure, Molly jun Fast,

981
00:52:06,520 --> 00:52:11,239
Speaker 1: Jesse Cannon. It's always fun when the petty little foot.

982
00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:16,040
Speaker 1: None of this is funny, fun, ironic fun. I smile

983
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 1: with Matt Gates attacks Rod de Santists to defend his

984
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 1: boy Donald Trump. That makes me smile, But I'm maybe

985
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:28,320
Speaker 1: a little deranged. So the whole idea here that Gates

986
00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:32,400
Speaker 1: and co. Have decided is that somehow does Santists could

987
00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:37,880
Speaker 1: protect Trump by stopping extradition from the state of Florida. Again,

988
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:40,879
Speaker 1: Trump has yet to be charged with anything like these

989
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:43,880
Speaker 1: people in a rush to defend the guy who hasn't

990
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:46,720
Speaker 1: been charged with anything, they're making up a lot of stuff,

991
00:52:46,760 --> 00:52:50,120
Speaker 1: But The new thing is that Matt Gates wants to

992
00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:54,440
Speaker 1: santist to stop Trump from getting extradited, which isn't happening.

993
00:52:54,560 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 1: So there's nothing braver than defending someone for something that

994
00:52:59,000 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 1: you don't understand at all. Congratulations Matt Gates. I think

995
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:05,440
Speaker 1: you're just arguing for this because you really want to

996
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:07,960
Speaker 1: build that mode. Yes, I want to build the mode.

997
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:12,200
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

998
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:15,480
Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to your the best minds

999
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:18,719
Speaker 1: in politics makes sense of all this chaos. If you

1000
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:21,560
Speaker 1: enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to a friend

1001
00:53:21,600 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks for listening.