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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game jewish prow read enough.

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Speaker 2: They're all for running a game so smooth, so sweet

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Speaker 2: D sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time. How shot with that shop

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Speaker 3: with mind, buddy, and that's why you see.

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Speaker 1: Your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 4: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous a.

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Speaker 3: Mount on the planet.

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Speaker 5: Nobody kitchen them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: The love is.

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Speaker 3: Left to one of the wide eyed, drilled bibused.

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Speaker 4: How on earth did that happened?

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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, Welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 2: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leebaugh joining

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Speaker 2: me in just moment and my colleagues friends Anthony Debundo

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Speaker 2: from King of Prussia, Pennsylvania and b. J. Cunningham from

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Speaker 2: the beautiful state of Iowa. But before I bring in

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Speaker 2: those two gentlemen, a reminder that wonder Goal is presented

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Speaker 2: to you by Betfree six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand.

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Speaker 2: Sign Up with promo code Action in New Jersey, Colorado,

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Speaker 2: and Ohio to get Action Networks exclusive sign up offer.

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Speaker 2: Bet one dollar on any game get two hundred dollars

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Speaker 2: bonus bets one week. I think we all needed the

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Speaker 2: international break. I know I did. Had to gear myself

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Speaker 2: up for an Islander's playoff push in the NHL, had

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Speaker 2: to get ready for the start of the Australian Football

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Speaker 2: League season, which has been riveting stuff. But now I'm

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Speaker 2: ready to get back into some premier league and it's

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Speaker 2: what a way to dive back in seven thirty am

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Speaker 2: kickoff on Saturday morning, man City hosting Liverpool, the two

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Speaker 2: preseason favorites obviously not anymore. Neither one of them are

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Speaker 2: the favorite to win the league anymore. That would be

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Speaker 2: BJ's rs a little bit City right on their heels.

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Speaker 2: Cities mightus won seventy five at home Liverpool four to one.

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Speaker 2: The draw is plus three point fifty. I think there's

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Speaker 2: a way you could look at this and think Liverpool

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Speaker 2: has some value with the teams coming back from international breaks,

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Speaker 2: some kind of headed variants there. But these teams have

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Speaker 2: played some thrilling matchups in the past BJ, and it

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Speaker 2: feels like that's what you're you're looking for here.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, Michael, I need that Internet international break too.

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Speaker 6: I need some math con qualifiers you know, to reset me.

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Speaker 6: But we're back and this is a fascinating tactical battle.

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Speaker 6: At What's interesting about this is what happened the last

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Speaker 6: time at Anfield because Liverpool, as we've been talking about

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Speaker 6: so many times, ham press the way they used to

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Speaker 6: so again City the last time they just didn't do that.

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Speaker 6: They just sat in a four or five to one

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Speaker 6: mid block and they let City have sixty three percent

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Speaker 6: possession and it worked. They won the match one nothing.

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Speaker 6: They created over two expected goals in that match. They

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Speaker 6: had a passes per defensive action nineteen point seven. They

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Speaker 6: forced just one highest turnover and only had six ten

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Speaker 6: plus pass sequences. That's not the Liverpool of last year

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Speaker 6: or two years ago, even I say, you know what's

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Speaker 6: interesting about this though, is like Pep knows that Pep

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Speaker 6: what we've seen from him is he obviously loves to tinker,

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Speaker 6: he loves to change up his tactics. He might go

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Speaker 6: and do what he did against Arsenal, whereas he completely

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Speaker 6: conceded possession, didn't try to counterpress him in the final

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Speaker 6: third and essentially let Arsenal try to build up and

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Speaker 6: then try to get at them in transition. So I'm

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Speaker 6: not really sure what Pep is going to do here.

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Speaker 6: Holland is obviously questionable. He didn't play for Norway during

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Speaker 6: the UEFA qualifiers, but I mean City right before the

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Speaker 6: international break looked pretty good, you know, seven nil against Lepe,

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Speaker 6: six six nil against Burnley in the FA Cup. So

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Speaker 6: if the question is here hand Liverpool be effective in

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Speaker 6: transition against City and I think they can because you know, City,

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Speaker 6: although their defense is obviously still you know, has some

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Speaker 6: of the best expected goals numbers in the Premier League

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Speaker 6: and throughout Europe. They've been pretty vulnerable against the Big

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Speaker 6: six this season. If you go back through their results,

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Speaker 6: you know the first meeting with United and it was

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Speaker 6: obviously they won the match six to three. United created

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Speaker 6: one point seven expected goals. The last time against Liverpool,

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Speaker 6: Liverpool created over two expected goals. The match against Chelsea.

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Speaker 6: That was when Chelsea are there a low point. That

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Speaker 6: was probably their best defensive performance. Arsenal created one point

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Speaker 6: six expected goals. Spurs in the first meeting created a

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Speaker 6: little under one expected goal but did score twice. Then

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Speaker 6: in the reverse fixture at white Hart Lane, Spurs created

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Speaker 6: one point four expected goals, and then most recently as well,

87
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Speaker 6: Manchester United created one point seven at Old Trafford, so

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Speaker 6: the City defense has not been very good against the

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Speaker 6: Big six, so I think Liverpool can be very very

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Speaker 6: effective in transition here. So I have a little over

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Speaker 6: three and a half goals projected for this match, so

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Speaker 6: I'm going to be on over three goals at minus

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Speaker 6: one o five.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like I said, I think that it's Liverpool or nothing.

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Speaker 2: On a side. I do agree with you though, I

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Speaker 2: just feel like this game should have some scoring in it.

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Speaker 2: City's got to go for it here, Anthony. What are

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Speaker 2: your thoughts here? Citizens and Reds? Your boys?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, my boys. They have kept their last four Premier

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Speaker 3: League opponents under one expected goal, which I do think

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Speaker 3: is interesting. And certainly, you know, Fabinho has been really

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Speaker 3: poor for them this year and that's been the I

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Speaker 3: think the biggest issue. You know, Tiago's always in and

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Speaker 3: out of the lineup, but Fabinho not being the defensive

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Speaker 3: midfielder that we're used to him being has really left

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Speaker 3: them exposed. But when they've had their full compliment of

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Speaker 3: defenders available, they haven't been quite as bad, maybe as

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Speaker 3: some of the market has suggested at times. Now with

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Speaker 3: this number and as you know, we've seen at times

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Speaker 3: where on set pieces they've gotten destroyed and whatnot. The

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Speaker 3: question for me here is the injuries though, because Holland

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Speaker 3: didn't go on on international duty, he's got like a

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Speaker 3: bit of a hip thing going on. He's you know,

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Speaker 3: fifty percent according to Premier League Injuries dot Com. They're

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Speaker 3: pretty reliable for injury news, I like, you know, following them,

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Speaker 3: so he's like fifty to fifty here. It looks like

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Speaker 3: Darwin Nunez is also questionable. He's listed as much more

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Speaker 3: likely to play, just like a knock on his ankle.

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Speaker 3: And then Luis Diaz could also make a return here,

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Speaker 3: which I think is going to be a huge piece

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Speaker 3: if Liverpool can finally reinsert him into the lineup, but

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Speaker 3: I don't know whose role he takes. It's kind of

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Speaker 3: weird because you have Sala and they've been playing Gackpo

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Speaker 3: up the middle and Nunya is up the left. I

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Speaker 3: think their best three is probably Diez, Nuniez and Sala

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Speaker 3: with Gagpo kind of off the bench, but a Jata too,

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Speaker 3: So like, it is hard to know exactly what we're

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Speaker 3: getting with Holland and Nuniez right now. As of you know,

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Speaker 3: recording on Wednesday, I will have the preview for this match.

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Speaker 3: If I have to bet it, I'm taking the goal

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Speaker 3: with Liverpool for sure, even going on the road, because

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Speaker 3: I think this is a little bit inflated on City.

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Speaker 3: I make City like minus one forty eight, and so

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Speaker 3: I'm a little bit over on City here or over

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Speaker 3: on Liverpool's chances relatively, so I would lean toward the Reds,

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Speaker 3: but again I want to wait a little bit til

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Speaker 3: we get more information on where we sit with the

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Speaker 3: the race here. And it's very interesting. The potential look

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Speaker 3: ahead lines City Arsenal in a couple of weeks right

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Speaker 3: around the same number. So the market is actually pricing

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Speaker 3: Arsenal and Liverpool relatively comparably, which will make for an

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Speaker 3: interesting battle that they have coming up in.

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Speaker 2: A couple of weeks. Speaking of Arsenal minus three thirty

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Speaker 2: four at home hosting Anthony's Leeds plus seven fifty the

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Speaker 2: Peacocks are and the draw is five to one here.

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Speaker 2: It's about as high as you'll see the draw get

147
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Speaker 2: in a game. It's it's I should clarify, like in

148
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Speaker 2: some real big prices like what City plays Borne Myth

149
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Speaker 2: or whatever, you'll see, you know, obviously inch up this high.

150
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Speaker 2: But between two teams that we both we all think

151
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Speaker 2: are relatively competent, a five to one is a pretty

152
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Speaker 2: big number on a draw. Leads is sitting on twenty

153
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Speaker 2: six points. That let's talk about the relegation battle real quick,

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Speaker 2: since we're getting to our first relegation team, Crystal Palace

155
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Speaker 2: in twelfth place on twenty seventh points on twenty seven

156
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Speaker 2: points Southampton, if you recall, they went into the break

157
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Speaker 2: on twenty three points, so there's four points separating twelve

158
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Speaker 2: from twenty if this thing's wide open. Meanwhile, at the top,

159
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Speaker 2: Arsenal's got the eight point edge. With one more match

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Speaker 2: played over City, they're gonna need to get these three points. Anthony,

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Speaker 2: do you give your peacocks a chance to keep this

162
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Speaker 2: thing close?

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Speaker 3: I do, And I think it all goes back to

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Speaker 3: what happened in the first meeting. And I know bj

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Speaker 3: is scoffing at me and he's stunned. He's glancing off

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Speaker 3: in all directions. Look, go back to the first meeting.

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Speaker 2: What happened.

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Speaker 3: This was, yes, it was at Leeds, but Leeds did

169
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Speaker 3: a better job of disrupting Arsenal's possession structure than probably

170
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Speaker 3: any team they've played all season. I think that's pretty

171
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Speaker 3: fair to say. Even City didn't even have the similar approach.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you just talked about a BJA like City

173
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Speaker 3: sat off and was comfortable just giving Arsenal possession and

174
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Speaker 3: then you know, being them in transition. I think leads

175
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Speaker 3: can disrupt. I think it's very notable that Tomoyasu, who's

176
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Speaker 3: their best defensive passer in the back line, is out

177
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Speaker 3: and Saliba is out. It's very hard to bet against

178
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Speaker 3: this Arsenal attack, especially now that Gabby jay Zeus is

179
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Speaker 3: back and looks like he'll start and cut you out,

180
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Speaker 3: so you're gonna have the jay Zus, Martinelli Soka front three.

181
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Speaker 3: I do think they'll score. I think Arsenal will probably

182
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Speaker 3: create many chances against this Leeds defense, which is still

183
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Speaker 3: not good. But remember what I've been saying and what

184
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Speaker 3: the numbers have been saying about Leeds for the last

185
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Speaker 3: really two months, three months this whole season, is that

186
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Speaker 3: the attacking process for this team is much better than

187
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Speaker 3: its results have showed, and that positive regression was coming.

188
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Speaker 3: And you know, they get the two two draw with

189
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Speaker 3: Brighton in a match where they were probably a little

190
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Speaker 3: fortunate they get the four to two win against Wolves.

191
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Speaker 3: They led throughout and still conceded almost three expected goals

192
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Speaker 3: to Wolves. Just a big red flag. But again, the

193
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Speaker 3: creation of chances was impressive in that match. Even though

194
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Speaker 3: they did ultimately lose XG, they were winning the whole match.

195
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Speaker 3: So you're seeing the signs and everything about this Leeds

196
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Speaker 3: team gives me a belief that they can score on Arsenal,

197
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Speaker 3: and that you know Arsenal's defense. If there's going to

198
00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,640
Speaker 3: be regression for the gunners, I still think it's on

199
00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:10,280
Speaker 3: the defensive end, not necessarily. The attack with jay Jus back,

200
00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:12,360
Speaker 3: and this is the leads attack that you know is

201
00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,880
Speaker 3: right around league average eleventh and non penalty XG ninth

202
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Speaker 3: and shots, So you know, I like this team. They

203
00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:21,400
Speaker 3: create high turnovers, they do tilt the field pretty well.

204
00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:25,080
Speaker 3: They're not gonna get overwhelmed by Arsenal's pressure. So I

205
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Speaker 3: like leads to score. So I'm gonna take both teams

206
00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:28,719
Speaker 3: to score here. They can find it right around even

207
00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:31,280
Speaker 3: money minus won ten. I like that here. It's my

208
00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:34,320
Speaker 3: gonna be my best bet at the weekend too, which

209
00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:35,160
Speaker 3: we'll touch on later.

210
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Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll get there.

211
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Speaker 3: Just been circled.

212
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Speaker 2: I know, bj Yeah, he's got nothing for us here.

213
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Speaker 2: He's just gonna sit back and watch.

214
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Speaker 4: Watch Arsenal score four goals.

215
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Speaker 6: I mean, the thing is, what I'll say about Leads

216
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Speaker 6: is that they have been a little more passive under

217
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Speaker 6: Hobby Garcia.

218
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Speaker 4: Like It's it's been interesting.

219
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Speaker 6: You know, the match against Brighton like is as a

220
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Speaker 6: good barometer of like what this Leads team is going

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Speaker 6: to do. Is that you know, in the past, Jesse

222
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Speaker 6: Marsh's teams would obviously press high intensity, get up and

223
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Speaker 6: create a lot of open space, which you just cannot

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Speaker 6: do against team like Brighton. Arsenal are one of the

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Speaker 6: Big six, So I do expect Leeds to kind of

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Speaker 6: sit off here and to not press as high as

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Speaker 6: they normally would. Yeah, not having Saliva in there scares the.

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Speaker 4: Crap out of me.

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Speaker 6: Like, I don't know if they're gonna probably have to

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Speaker 6: go with Rob Holding or somebody else back there now

231
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Speaker 6: that Tomyasu's out, so we'll see they might switch ben

232
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Speaker 6: Ben White in there to that center back position.

233
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Speaker 4: So I'm not really sure what Arsenal's gonna do.

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Speaker 6: But Leeds, you know, no Tyler Adams, which is pretty.

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Speaker 4: Big for Leeds.

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Speaker 6: I mean, obviously now they have Weston, McKinney and Rocca

237
00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:43,760
Speaker 6: who can be good replacements between Tyler Adams has been

238
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Speaker 6: everything to them in their midfield so far.

239
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Speaker 4: So it is a loss.

240
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Speaker 6: So Arsenal's ability to both play through the middle of

241
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Speaker 6: the pitch and both out wide as well should be

242
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Speaker 6: able to give them enough to win this match. So

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Speaker 6: I mean, I could see another four to one win

244
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Speaker 6: like against Crystal Palace right for the international break, but no,

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Speaker 6: Arsenal's winning this match. I don't know Anthony Fifth he

246
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Speaker 6: thinks Leeds is going to compete.

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Speaker 2: He's crazy.

248
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Speaker 3: Zah hit the post in like the fifth minute of

249
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Speaker 3: that match and I was like, that was the chance, Like,

250
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Speaker 3: there's not going to be another chance. We blew it

251
00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:14,679
Speaker 3: and then it just came kind of from nothing off

252
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Speaker 3: a set piece and Jeff Schlutt was the hero last week.

253
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Speaker 3: So hopefully, you know, we'll continue to fade this Arsenal

254
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Speaker 3: defense which conceded in seven seconds to Bournemouth set piece

255
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Speaker 3: to Crystal Palace, who hadn't scored in all season. I

256
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Speaker 3: think until that goal.

257
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Speaker 6: Well now that no, we go to Crystal Palace next

258
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Speaker 6: because they're.

259
00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,800
Speaker 2: Bad yeah, let's do it. Crystal Palace play back.

260
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Speaker 3: They're one road defeat of the Arsenal.

261
00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:38,960
Speaker 4: No, no, no, it's not because of that.

262
00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:43,600
Speaker 2: Well, they're plus one fifty hosting Leicester plus one ninety.

263
00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:45,360
Speaker 2: The draw is plus two twenty five. As I said,

264
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Speaker 2: there are basically half the league is in the relegation battle.

265
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Speaker 2: Least are two of the teams in the thick of it.

266
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Speaker 2: Leicester's on twenty five points seventeenth place, only one point

267
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Speaker 2: ahead of west Ham and bournemth They've also played one

268
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Speaker 2: more match than west Ham Palace. Baby, you know how

269
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Speaker 2: on uh soccer, Like there's soccer accounts that will tweet

270
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Speaker 2: out like news that's not really new, Like it's fake

271
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Speaker 2: fake news, I guess is the way to put it.

272
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Speaker 2: And they do a good job, like with the captions

273
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Speaker 2: or whatever. It's like the onion. I went all morning

274
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Speaker 2: thinking that, you know, it was just a parody account.

275
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Speaker 3: Ah that crazy that they fired him.

276
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Speaker 2: It's you think that's the crazier thing.

277
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Speaker 6: Yeah, what's crazier Like that's bringing or bringing him back?

278
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Speaker 2: I think, like I get the almost could get the

279
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Speaker 2: logic of it, like another team doing it in the battle,

280
00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:43,240
Speaker 2: Like like if Lester had had brought in Roy Hodgson,

281
00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:44,719
Speaker 2: I'd be like, all right, Like, I see what they're

282
00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:46,920
Speaker 2: trying to do here. They just want to grind their

283
00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:50,240
Speaker 2: way to eight eight more points and try to get

284
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Speaker 2: out of the battle or whatever. But the whole team

285
00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,640
Speaker 2: last year was talking about how how happy they were

286
00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:57,520
Speaker 2: to have like a new set of ideas and it's

287
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Speaker 2: the same team.

288
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Speaker 5: Uh.

289
00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:01,360
Speaker 2: I don't know if we're going to see a new

290
00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:06,240
Speaker 2: manager bounce here because it's not a new manager.

291
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Speaker 3: I mean, it depends on how bad you think they

292
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Speaker 3: actually were. You know, we've talked about this. I mean

293
00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:13,400
Speaker 3: it was ridiculous they fired him. I mean, was he

294
00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:17,280
Speaker 3: supposed to get results against City and Arsenal the last

295
00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:21,000
Speaker 3: two weeks they got him fired and Brighton, you know,

296
00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:23,960
Speaker 3: and they've played the hardest schedule by a long shot

297
00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:26,720
Speaker 3: in the league. It's not even close. And so there

298
00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:30,160
Speaker 3: probably will be a new manager bounce because now instead

299
00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:33,600
Speaker 3: of playing Arsenal, City, Brentford, bright and Chelsea and United,

300
00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:38,560
Speaker 3: they're gonna play Leicester, Southampton, Bournemouth and Wolves. So yes,

301
00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:42,760
Speaker 3: they will probably get more points. But like, I'm not

302
00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,640
Speaker 3: optimistic about this. I mean, his teams were always terrible.

303
00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:47,520
Speaker 3: I used to bet against Palace all the time. I

304
00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:50,280
Speaker 3: used to say, look this team, they steal results. It's

305
00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,560
Speaker 3: the Hodgson way. They have no attack. They defend deep,

306
00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,360
Speaker 3: but they don't do it well. At least this team

307
00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:59,000
Speaker 3: was an average Premier League defensive team and now they're

308
00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:03,720
Speaker 3: just not and Lester, I'm not gonna bet them a

309
00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:07,040
Speaker 3: single time this season. So unless they unless it's the

310
00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:08,680
Speaker 3: end of the season and they get one of those

311
00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:11,480
Speaker 3: inflated spots, whether the team gets you know, juiced up,

312
00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:14,240
Speaker 3: I don't think I'm betting them all year. And the

313
00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:16,240
Speaker 3: market doesn't really downgrade them enough here for me to

314
00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:19,920
Speaker 3: bet on over against them. This is an easy pass

315
00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:21,080
Speaker 3: for me, and the under two and a half is

316
00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:23,840
Speaker 3: like minus one forty, so I'll pass.

317
00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:30,440
Speaker 2: That's gonna be fun. Another relegation battler, Born With plus

318
00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:35,280
Speaker 2: one fifty five hosting Fulham. The draw here is plus

319
00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:39,000
Speaker 2: two thirty. Fulham is plus one eighty on the road.

320
00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:43,240
Speaker 2: Born with there's like a it kind of feels like

321
00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:44,640
Speaker 2: I know, I know they've They've had a couple of

322
00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:51,640
Speaker 2: wins of late, including the what over Liverpool which was hysterical.

323
00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:55,760
Speaker 2: They've got two out of two wins out of their

324
00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:59,720
Speaker 2: last five matches. It it feels like they've had a

325
00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:04,440
Speaker 2: better kind of stretched than they actually have. Like I

326
00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:06,760
Speaker 2: was like, all right, what they're there's clong their way

327
00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:09,520
Speaker 2: out of out of you know, the drop zone perhaps,

328
00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:11,720
Speaker 2: but they've they've won twice since the World Cup, like

329
00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:13,600
Speaker 2: those are their two wins. It's it's hard to get

330
00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:16,280
Speaker 2: behind this team. But at the same time, like we

331
00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:18,800
Speaker 2: all think the same thing about this Fulham team that

332
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,600
Speaker 2: like at some point they are just going to precipitously

333
00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:25,760
Speaker 2: drop into safely into like the teens on the table.

334
00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,160
Speaker 2: So this is a pass for me. I would look

335
00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,680
Speaker 2: towards Bourne myth of anything, but I'm just not gonna

336
00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:34,120
Speaker 2: do it, Anthony.

337
00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:37,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll take Bourne myth here at home Pickham. I

338
00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:40,240
Speaker 3: you know, Fulham has some major injury issues, so my

339
00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,880
Speaker 3: number is right about right. But then once you figure

340
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:44,880
Speaker 3: out that Mitrovic is out here, I think that's I

341
00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:48,000
Speaker 3: mean just a huge downgrade. He's gonna miss almost a month,

342
00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:53,600
Speaker 3: which is significant after that FA Cup bruhaha against Man United.

343
00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:56,680
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean I think that you know, we've

344
00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,320
Speaker 3: talked about I don't need to go into depth about

345
00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:00,840
Speaker 3: how Fulham, you know, has run gods. I've got them

346
00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:04,720
Speaker 3: fourteenth in my ratings. I've got Bournemouth still twentieth even

347
00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:07,240
Speaker 3: once I account for home field and then Metrovich. I

348
00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:11,560
Speaker 3: make Bournemouth a slightly bigger favorite here. And so you know,

349
00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:13,440
Speaker 3: it's like minus one twelve and the numbers like minus

350
00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:15,040
Speaker 3: one ten. It's not really a huge edge. But like

351
00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,360
Speaker 3: I said, Mitrovitch being out, I think is you could

352
00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,440
Speaker 3: argue there's no more important player in the league this

353
00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:24,520
Speaker 3: year to their team, just given how they want to

354
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,160
Speaker 3: play and given his production, how good it's been.

355
00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:30,320
Speaker 2: I would disagree with you. I'd say that Dominic Calvert

356
00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:33,600
Speaker 2: Lewin is considering Everden be back this week. So many

357
00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:36,600
Speaker 2: matches with them, all right, this is a huge one

358
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:41,000
Speaker 2: for us. Brighton and Brentford. You could call this the

359
00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:45,080
Speaker 2: wonderguld Darby. We love both of these teams. Brighton odds

360
00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,199
Speaker 2: on there minus one fifty at home hosting the Bees,

361
00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:51,160
Speaker 2: who are four to one, the draws three to one.

362
00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,399
Speaker 2: I don't know, after all we've been through as a

363
00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:56,360
Speaker 2: podcast and how many times we've said this, I can't

364
00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:58,560
Speaker 2: believe neither one of you are joining me here. When

365
00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:00,960
Speaker 2: the price gets like this on board on Brentford, you

366
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:04,199
Speaker 2: just do it like I know Brighton's good, but you

367
00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:06,840
Speaker 2: look since the World Cup, the difference between these two

368
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,359
Speaker 2: teams is not all that Stark. Both have six wins.

369
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 2: Brighton's done it from one less match played. Brentford's lost

370
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:19,200
Speaker 2: once drawn five, Brighton's lost twice drawn three expected goals.

371
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,760
Speaker 2: The edge goes to Brighton a little bit. But the

372
00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:27,280
Speaker 2: Brentford's defensive form is quite good. They've allowed nine goals

373
00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,280
Speaker 2: in the last twelve matches, should be around thirteen according

374
00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:33,280
Speaker 2: to expecta goles, so some regression coming, but still that's

375
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:37,120
Speaker 2: a really good number in the Premier League. I'm shocked

376
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,880
Speaker 2: that neither one of you are joining this party here BJ.

377
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,760
Speaker 6: It's a sin to bet against either of these teams, Michael,

378
00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,520
Speaker 6: and you know that that's part of our podcast, Creed.

379
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,320
Speaker 6: I mean, I mean listen, like, yeah, I agree, the

380
00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,200
Speaker 6: numbers getting a little bit high, like I have Brighton

381
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,280
Speaker 6: a minus one thirty one. If you look at the

382
00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:57,160
Speaker 6: last time these two teams faced off, it was right.

383
00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:00,000
Speaker 6: It was like the third match after Deserby got higher

384
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,199
Speaker 6: and Brighton created close to two expected goals, but they

385
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:04,600
Speaker 6: just couldn't put it in the back of the net.

386
00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 6: Renford capitalized on their two big chances, put them in

387
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:08,960
Speaker 6: the back of the net, and they won the match

388
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:14,480
Speaker 6: to nothing. Brighton held over seventy percent possession in that match.

389
00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:17,000
Speaker 6: That is the most that they've held in a Premier

390
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:19,639
Speaker 6: League match this season outside of the one against Crystal

391
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:20,400
Speaker 6: Palace on the road.

392
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:24,400
Speaker 4: But yeah, I mean I expect Branford to sit deep.

393
00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:26,359
Speaker 6: I expect them to sit in their low block and

394
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,639
Speaker 6: look to play very direct against Brighton. Who you know,

395
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,760
Speaker 6: I mean they obviously Brighton has been They didn't look

396
00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,919
Speaker 6: great against Crystal Palace right before the break. I mean,

397
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,280
Speaker 6: Palace pressed them high, they were effective in doing so,

398
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 6: and Brighton had some real trouble building up throughout most

399
00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:43,240
Speaker 6: of that match, and you could say that Chris Palace

400
00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 6: might maybe might have been the better team in that match.

401
00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 6: But yeah, I if again, if if Brighton is getting

402
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,840
Speaker 6: up to minus one seventy five, minus one eighty, I

403
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,200
Speaker 6: mean I could talk myself into a Brentford plus one.

404
00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:58,880
Speaker 6: But it's just so dangerous to bet against this Brighton team,

405
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,240
Speaker 6: given how great they are offensively, especially at home.

406
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,399
Speaker 2: It's dangerous. But when you're getting four to one on

407
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:06,439
Speaker 2: a really good team, it becomes less dangerous. I mean,

408
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:07,439
Speaker 2: and there's higher numbers.

409
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:09,120
Speaker 6: It looks like, hey, it looks like ivan Tony's gonna

410
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,200
Speaker 6: play the rest of season. Okay, I don't really see

411
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,200
Speaker 6: a scenario where they suspend him, like, you know, five

412
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,560
Speaker 6: matches before the season ends, so like you have that

413
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:20,439
Speaker 6: benefit if you're if you're Brentford. But yeah, I just

414
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:25,080
Speaker 6: it's it's terrifying betting against betting against either of these teams.

415
00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:27,560
Speaker 6: So I'm happy to just sit on the sidelines and

416
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:29,560
Speaker 6: watch our two children go at it.

417
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:36,199
Speaker 3: Here's a fun one, right Brentford has played. They have

418
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,240
Speaker 3: one win all season in a match where they've had

419
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 3: more possession than the opponent in the prem Think about

420
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 3: that and it's.

421
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,159
Speaker 4: Not even who who was that.

422
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 3: There are twelve matches this season they've played where they

423
00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:51,160
Speaker 3: have had more possession than the opponent and percentage wise, yeah,

424
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:53,960
Speaker 3: possession can be correlated to you know, whether you're ahead

425
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,280
Speaker 3: or behind. But the one win was Bourne myth to

426
00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 3: nil in January. They they have had ten matches where

427
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,159
Speaker 3: they had thirty seven percent of the ball or less.

428
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:08,880
Speaker 3: They have not lost a single one of those.

429
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 2: They are the best they.

430
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 3: Are the best underdog and they are the best.

431
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:13,440
Speaker 4: It's great, are the best.

432
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,880
Speaker 2: Action network sends out like a Spotify rapped I think

433
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 2: just the end of the year and they tell you

434
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 2: who the team that you made the most money on it.

435
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 2: And this ended up being a walkover for Brentford because

436
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 2: of the nineteen to one when they they beat City,

437
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 2: but it was then by so so far, and I

438
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 2: don't think I bet them once as a favorite.

439
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,120
Speaker 6: I mean the market just this is to your point,

440
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 6: Mark Michael, where the market just has not caught up

441
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 6: with them. They're still pricing them like they're a below

442
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,359
Speaker 6: the bottom end of the table Premier League team now

443
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 6: like a relegation team, but like the thirteenth or fourteenth

444
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:46,879
Speaker 6: best in the team in the Premier League, which is

445
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 6: just totally not the case. And now we're starting to

446
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 6: see it with Brighton, where for so long we were like,

447
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 6: oh my gosh, Brighton's undervalued, Brighton's undervalued, and now the

448
00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 6: market's getting a little too high on them, where it's like,

449
00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 6: I don't know if I want to back Brighton at

450
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,119
Speaker 6: this price, even though they're playing so so good. We

451
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 6: saw it against west Ham obviously when they were what

452
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 6: they were like minus one forty against west Ham and

453
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:06,879
Speaker 6: closed around minus one fifty.

454
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 2: It's like that was a question I was going to

455
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:13,119
Speaker 2: ask you the breaks off, But like what what that

456
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,400
Speaker 2: question was going to ask is like if if bright

457
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 2: Brighton was hosting Villa in the spot.

458
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 6: They probably minus one twenty. Honestly, yeah, like we this

459
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,199
Speaker 6: number probably I don't know.

460
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 2: It's hey, I can't get it.

461
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 3: I think I'm like a little astounded that I said

462
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 3: kind of breaks the models on this team because I

463
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,040
Speaker 3: know that, you know, there's non shot model nonshot XG

464
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 3: and like having possession and squad value and all that

465
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,919
Speaker 3: stuff that goes into power rating these teams. But like

466
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:43,120
Speaker 3: when when a team breaks it, he kept two straight, right,

467
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 3: it's easy.

468
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:46,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is why this is a good This is

469
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:47,359
Speaker 4: a good uh.

470
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:51,119
Speaker 6: Lesson to everybody out there Anthony that like, possession matters,

471
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,679
Speaker 6: but it also doesn't matter at all because, like you know,

472
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 6: the reason here's the reason why we love expectacles.

473
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 4: The spectbles isn't everything.

474
00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 6: It's not like the one end all be all of everything,

475
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 6: but it is the finality of everything else that we

476
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,400
Speaker 6: talk about, from possession to pass per defensive action, crosses,

477
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:10,359
Speaker 6: all these other things go into creating a chance. Right,

478
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 6: So if you're not able to create that chance, it's

479
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:15,880
Speaker 6: the Wolves argument, right, like, you can hold a bunch

480
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 6: of possession, you can you can get the ball into

481
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 6: the final third, you can do all these great things,

482
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 6: but if you can't generate a high quality chance, then

483
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 6: it means nothing. And what Brentford does is they are

484
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:26,959
Speaker 6: essentially what we've been talking about with Bournemouth and like, oh,

485
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 6: they're so good at creating these one or two good opportunities.

486
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 6: Well Brentford has taking that and taking that to the

487
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:33,919
Speaker 6: next level where they don't control out of possession and

488
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:35,120
Speaker 6: their counter attacks are.

489
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 4: Just so effective.

490
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 6: So I mean just goes to show you that, yeah,

491
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 6: possession doesn't mean as much as you know people will

492
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 6: say it is in the media.

493
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 3: Arsenal under our teta until like a year and a

494
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 3: half ago to same thing, the ball twelve shots exactly.

495
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 6: This is maybe why I didn't believe in Arsenal Anthony,

496
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 6: you know, coming into the season, because they were doing

497
00:23:57,600 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 6: that type of crap.

498
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,400
Speaker 2: And it's I'm really astounded that you guys aren't gonna

499
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 2: bet them bores next they're plus one ninety hosting Wolves

500
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 2: plus one siventy five the Drus plus two Ted. Yeah,

501
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 2: this is another number that jumped off the page a

502
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:21,639
Speaker 2: little bit. Here. We said it a bunch about Wolves

503
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 2: that they're just kind of enjoying some good fortune in

504
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 2: terms of their results since the World Cup. If you

505
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 2: look at their their points compared to expected points, they're

506
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 2: they're running hot. Defensively, they've not been good, They're not

507
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 2: they're creating a little bit more than they usually do.

508
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 2: I will say that in terms of like expected goals

509
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 2: since the World Cup, they've got fourteen in thirteen matches,

510
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 2: which feels like an improvement for them. These numbers are

511
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 2: pretty much like there's not much of a difference between

512
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 2: Wolves and Nodding of Force. Then when you factor in

513
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 2: home my home ice, home field advantage, the ice, the ice,

514
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 2: the ice at city ground, nodding in Forrest knows knows

515
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 2: how the boards work there really well. But when you

516
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 2: factor in home home field advantage, the tricky Trees look

517
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 2: like a good bet here, Anthony, Yeah.

518
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:19,919
Speaker 3: I agree, and you know I'm not. I've not been

519
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 3: much of a fan of Steve Cooper and Forrest this year.

520
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:27,439
Speaker 3: They still look completely shambalack defensively far too often for

521
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 3: me to trust them. But yeah, I mean just pure

522
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 3: aggregate numbers, Wolves have been about a half goal worse

523
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 3: than their opponents this year. Forrest is like basically right

524
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 3: around that if you take out some penalty stuff, like,

525
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 3: it's the same roughly the same team.

526
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:41,880
Speaker 2: Uh.

527
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 3: And Forrest has what I think is a better attack

528
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 3: uh than Wolves on paper. So I've got the better attack.

529
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 3: I'm at home and I'm gonna pick them. So you

530
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 3: know I'm gonna take Forest happily at plus money John

531
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 3: O Bett for sure. If not for the leads thing,

532
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 3: it would be my best bet this weekend.

533
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,400
Speaker 2: It might might end up on the list anyways. Uh

534
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 2: bja you kind of scoffed at the book makers.

535
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 4: It's right. I have a trivia question for you guys.

536
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 6: Wolves is one two matches away from home this season.

537
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 4: Can you name the opponents? Sty But of course, Michael,

538
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 4: you can name.

539
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 2: One, of course, that's the easy one.

540
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 4: Mm hmm.

541
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 3: So the one, the one is Everton.

542
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 4: The other one, I'll give you a hint.

543
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 6: It was one of the worst beats that we suffered

544
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 6: over the last I don't know too much.

545
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 3: Oh my gosh, that's Southampton disgrace.

546
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 6: Those are the only two matches they went away from

547
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 6: home where they were down a man, down a goal,

548
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 6: somehow came from behind to beat Southampton and then scored

549
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 6: a late winner against Everton, which Michael. They did lose

550
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 6: the expected goals battle one point seven to point eight,

551
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 6: so they didn't.

552
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 3: Really deserve They got destroyed that match.

553
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 4: Away from home.

554
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:49,120
Speaker 6: This season, Wolves minus seven point seven expected goal diffrenchial

555
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 6: And these two teams have played actually twice this season,

556
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,199
Speaker 6: once in the League Cup where not even forced one

557
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,720
Speaker 6: on penalties, which is a pretty even match, and the

558
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 6: second one which is at Wolves Wolves won one nothing

559
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,479
Speaker 6: but both teams got a penalty. In that match, Wolves

560
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 6: converted theirs, not even Forrest missed theirs, so expected golds

561
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 6: was about even. Wolves didn't register a shot from open

562
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 6: play that had an XTY rating over point one, which

563
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 6: is pretty typical of what we see from Wolves. But

564
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 6: I mean the way that Wolves wants to play right,

565
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 6: They want a lot of possession of the defensive third,

566
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 6: you know, build up from the back, get the ball

567
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 6: out wide and swinging crosses. Well, you know, Nottingham Forest

568
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:29,199
Speaker 6: is not going to press them they're gonna sit very

569
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 6: very deep, they're gonna stay very very compact, and basically

570
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,640
Speaker 6: it's just gonna be a bunch of shots from distance

571
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,399
Speaker 6: from Wolves and we'll see if one of those goes in.

572
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,399
Speaker 6: But guess what, Dean Henderson is in goal. Kayler Novis

573
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 6: is in goal now, and he's actually a good goalkeeper

574
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 6: at saving those shots from outside the box. So I

575
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:48,119
Speaker 6: mean Wolves, This is another funny status. Wolves has the

576
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,920
Speaker 6: second most touches in their defensive third in the Premier League.

577
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 6: You guys knowho the first team is Anthony Arsenal or City. No,

578
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 6: it's your Tottenham. Yeah, go look at it.

579
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 3: We also probably have the most giveaway final third two exactly.

580
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 6: So yeah, it's just like, yeah, it's just like Wolves

581
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 6: is very very good at holding possession in their own

582
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,640
Speaker 6: defensive third. And then again it's the same story over

583
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 6: and over again, so they should not be favorites here,

584
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,880
Speaker 6: especially like the City ground where notting and Forest has

585
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 6: played better this season.

586
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,119
Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm on, I'm with you, guys, Nottingam Forrest.

587
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:22,360
Speaker 4: John o'batt at plus one oh five for me.

588
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 2: A grouper on one of the worst teams in the

589
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:30,120
Speaker 2: Premier League. What could go wrong? What could go wrong

590
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 2: for Chelsea when they host Essen Villa as minus fifty

591
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 2: four favorites Villas plus four fifty the Jaws plus to eighty.

592
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 2: For our partnership with the New York Post, I was

593
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 2: talking about how if you had to pick one of

594
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 2: the eight teams for a futures ticket in the Champions

595
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 2: League left, it would probably be Chelsea. At this point,

596
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 2: they're like double the odds of Real Madrid, who they're playing,

597
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 2: and that's probably not right.

598
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 3: They're like, they're like plus one fifteen to beat them.

599
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 4: I like Leipzig.

600
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 2: Leipzig could still do it. They could still do it.

601
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 2: I have faith in them to somehow come. Maybe City

602
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 2: will get kicked out for FIFA ticket. Yeah they deple

603
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 2: ticket looks good too. Anyways, Chelsea and Villa now, I

604
00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 2: mean Villa has been bad there on the beach coming

605
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 2: back from an international break. They do win the award.

606
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 2: I think for being the first team on the beach

607
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 2: they should be. I mean you can make the argument

608
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 2: Chelsea is too in the Premier League. They don't what

609
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 2: are they playing for?

610
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 3: No, they're still alive.

611
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 2: To catch who Tottenham Brentford. There are eleven points. There

612
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 2: are eleven ports back there on the Champions League beach.

613
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 4: They gotta win the Champions League to get back in it.

614
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got I got nothing here. I think that

615
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 2: that you could with the way Chelsea's trending, and if

616
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 2: you want to talk about if you want to make

617
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,719
Speaker 2: a like a square parlay with with a team like

618
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 2: Chelsea and I don't know Arsenal or something, go for it.

619
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 2: But other than that, I've really got no betting interest

620
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 2: in this one. Anything for you, BJ.

621
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 4: No, I will be passing. I was maybe gonna give

622
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 4: a look at Aston Villa and.

623
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 6: Then I started to go through the defensive numbers again

624
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 6: to remind me, like just how bad they have been recently,

625
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 6: so essentially since they lost four to two to Leicester.

626
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 6: I'm just gonna go through how many expectacles that have

627
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 6: allowed two point six to Leicester, three point three to City,

628
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 6: three point two to Arsenal, one point six to Everton,

629
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 6: point two to Palace.

630
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 4: So good defense from it's there.

631
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 6: But Palace got a red card, two point one to

632
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 6: west Ham and then one point three to Bournemouth over

633
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 6: this past weekend, So I don't know what's going on

634
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 6: with you, and I Amory in his defense, but I

635
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 6: think it's just what I've kind of been saying for

636
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 6: over the past few weeks is that Aston Villa just

637
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 6: is trying to play out of the back way too

638
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 6: much and emitting a ton of high turnovers and giving

639
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 6: teams transition opportunities to go out their goal and score.

640
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 6: And Emmy Martinez might not be the best goalkeeper in

641
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 6: the world anymore, so I will be passing. You know,

642
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 6: Chelsea for me and my numbers is still a tad

643
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 6: over valued. So I mean then I think the market

644
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 6: just continues to price them like, hey, they're going to

645
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 6: come back, They're going to be fine, which they probably

646
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 6: will at some point. And you know, again, like Michael said,

647
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 6: I don't really know what they're fighting for they do.

648
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 6: This is a look at spot because they got Liverpool

649
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 6: in three days after this match, and then obviously their

650
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:24,160
Speaker 6: trip to to Real Madrid next week as well. So

651
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 6: it's yeah, it's it's a pass for me. If I

652
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 6: had to bet anything, though, I maybe take a look

653
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 6: at Villa.

654
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 3: I think Chelsea has so many players that are like

655
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 3: in contention for places. I don't really see them like

656
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 3: mailing in the rest of the season, especially since they've

657
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 3: been so bad.

658
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 2: But they have been better.

659
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 3: I mean one and a half expected goals or more

660
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 3: in six of their last seven matches, the only dud

661
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 3: coming at Spurs when I had a big bet on them,

662
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 3: of course, But yeah, you know, Bja mentioned it. The

663
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 3: Villa defense has fallen off, the Chelsea attack continues to

664
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 3: trend in the right direction. We're finally getting some finishing

665
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 3: production from Kai Havertz after he was in a brutal

666
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 3: run of form with his finishing, and you know, you're

667
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 3: seeing the fruits of that, I mean, Felix and Haerts,

668
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 3: and you know, Mudrik still hasn't really been productive, but

669
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 3: they have the pieces here. I'm not betting them in

670
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 3: this spot though.

671
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: All right, let's flip it to Sunday. We'll talk west Ham.

672
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 2: They are in a relegation spot as we speak right now,

673
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 2: eighteenth place on twenty four points, but they've only played

674
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 2: twenty six matches. Every other team has played at least

675
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 2: twenty seven and some twenty eight. And this is a

676
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 2: huge one for this relegation battle as west Ham is

677
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,239
Speaker 2: minus one thirty eight at home hosting Southampton, who were

678
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 2: propping up the table. With twenty three points from twenty

679
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 2: eight games. Situationally, like, I think both teams need to

680
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 2: go into this one thinking three points at minimum, so

681
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 2: could set up to be honestly the game of the

682
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 2: weekend outside of Brighton and Brentford for our purposes. West

683
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 2: Ham like, I still think that they're maybe a little

684
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 2: undervalued just generally with the way that they've played. But

685
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 2: it's so hard at this point in the season. It's

686
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 2: just so hard to just keep going with them. I

687
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 2: just feel like as soon as I feel like west

688
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 2: Ham's about to turn it up a notcha too, then

689
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 2: I go back to them and they don't reward me.

690
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 2: They lost four nothing to Brighton than drew Villa one

691
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 2: to one going into the break after a big winning

692
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 2: it gets four. So I got nothing here anything for you, Anthony.

693
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 3: It's just crazy that they're leading goal scorer this season

694
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 3: has four goals.

695
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 2: Four goals.

696
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, Jared Bowen has four goals, Saya bin Rama has

697
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 3: four goals. Scamacha and Antonio have six combined. In twenty

698
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 3: two nineties, I mean that's really been it. I mean

699
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 3: they were getting he used to have good striker nam

700
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 3: mckel Antonio and they no longer have that version of him.

701
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 3: He's thirty three and he's really fallen off and Schamaca

702
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 3: hasn't been healthy enough to replace those minutes and as

703
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 3: a result, I mean, the attack just stinks. So I

704
00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 3: don't really want to bet them as a minus one

705
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 3: forty home favorite. They were, you know, right around this

706
00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 3: same number against Forest a couple of weeks ago, and

707
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 3: I know BJ had them and they rolled, and like,

708
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 3: I could see that a very similar situation with them

709
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 3: in this spot. But I'm not laying the Jews. You know,

710
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:14,800
Speaker 3: I would need like minus one ten to beout Southampton.

711
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 2: BJ. You do have a play here, though, I do.

712
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:20,759
Speaker 6: I have one of my favorite batstball teams to score no.

713
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 6: And minus one twenty.

714
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 4: You know.

715
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 6: I know Southampton just scored three goals against Tottenham, but

716
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 6: they've been.

717
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 4: Bad offensively since the World Cup break.

718
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 6: Before that match against Tottdam, they had created just nine

719
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 6: non penalty expected goals in twelve matches and west Ham.

720
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:38,919
Speaker 6: Although they haven't been great defensively as of late, they've

721
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:41,400
Speaker 6: been really good against lesser competition in the Promily against

722
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 6: the bottom half the table. They've played thirteen matches, they

723
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 6: have only conceded eleven point five expected goals and three

724
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,960
Speaker 6: big scoring chances. And the last time they faced Southampton,

725
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 6: albeit it was under Ralph Hassenhudle, the match is a

726
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 6: one to one draw. Southampton only created half an expectable

727
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 6: and their only goal came off of a deflection from

728
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 6: twenty about thirty yards out. And the thing about Southampton

729
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 6: is like how they are effective and you say that

730
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 6: against Toddam is when the game becomes very transitional back

731
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 6: and forth. But west Ham has been one of the

732
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 6: better transition defenses in the Premier League and a lot

733
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 6: of the underlining numbers suggest that as well. So you know,

734
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 6: Southampton could do what they did against Toddam, they could

735
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 6: put up over two expected goals.

736
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 4: But away from home this season.

737
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 6: They have not been very good and now they have

738
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 6: Chay Adams questionable for this match, so there goes one

739
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 6: of their more productive attackers. Also west Ham you know, offensively,

740
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 6: like Anthony mentioned, they just they just stink. You know,

741
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 6: somebody on this podcast gave out Jared Bowen for Golden

742
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 6: Boot this season. I won't say who, but I mean

743
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 6: they are third to last in the Premier League in

744
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 6: final third at penalty box conversion rate when they're already

745
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 6: not getting in the final third at a high rate.

746
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 4: So that's that is not a good mixture for west Ham.

747
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 6: So so I like both team to score now at

748
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 6: minus one twenty I have projected at minus one fifty five.

749
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 6: I just don't trust either of these attacks, and I

750
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 6: think that line is a little too well.

751
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 3: Also, how does Vieira get fired but Moyes keeps his job?

752
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 2: He's a genius.

753
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 3: David Boys doesn't make any sense to her.

754
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:14,359
Speaker 6: Well now we'll get to it in a little bit.

755
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 6: But there's somebody in Germany just fired one of the

756
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 6: best managers in Europe. So somebody's on the market right now.

757
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 6: So yes, we might see some managers get fired in

758
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 6: favor of a certain hot name.

759
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 2: All right, We got two more to go in the

760
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 2: Premier League, Newcastle and man United on Sunday. The Magpies

761
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 2: plus one forty at home, United plus one ninety on

762
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 2: the road, and the draw is plus two forty. This

763
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 2: one for the race for the top four is quite

764
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 2: high stakes. United on fifty points from twenty six matches

765
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 2: and Newcastle forty seven points. They're in fifth place because

766
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 2: somehow Tottenham still in fourth. I think this number looks

767
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 2: about right. Actually, I got nothing here. Could maybe see

768
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 2: a bet on the over end, bit that's about it.

769
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 4: I agree.

770
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,439
Speaker 3: I think that you know, Casimiro is probably the second

771
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 3: most and you know we joked earlier about Mitrovich, like

772
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 3: Casimir does. It does matter a lot for what United

773
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 3: wants to do, and he provides the extra shots that

774
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:19,759
Speaker 3: they haven't been getting through ericson being out and you

775
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 3: know him getting forward a little bit and of course

776
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:24,720
Speaker 3: the defensive structure as well is important, and his absence

777
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 3: I think is notable. And I also still have the

778
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:30,279
Speaker 3: same questions I've always had about United's attack. I mean,

779
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 3: it's Rashford's been in world class form, but if he

780
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 3: drips drips a little bit, drops a little bit off,

781
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 3: the surrounding production just hasn't been as consistent. So those

782
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 3: are my questions more long term about United, But in

783
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 3: this spot, I don't really have an interest in fading them,

784
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 3: although I probably will be fading them on Wednesday when

785
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 3: they play our bs.

786
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:52,439
Speaker 6: Yeah bejau Yeah, I mean this is a Slam Newcastle spot.

787
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 6: I don't know what you guys aren't seeing obviously, and

788
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 6: not just beat him in the League Cup, right, they

789
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 6: beat him to nothing, but that was with Casimiro. Now

790
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 6: they're gonna be with that Casamiro, who is vitally important

791
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 6: for them, like Anthony mentioned, With him in the lineup

792
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,399
Speaker 6: this season, they're only allowing one point one to one

793
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 6: expected goals per ninety Without him, they're allowing one points

794
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:12,400
Speaker 6: today six to eight expected goals prinie the matches they

795
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 6: played without him. It was at the beginning of the

796
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 6: season against both Brighton Brentford and then when he just

797
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 6: got signed for the Liverpool match where they got absolutely

798
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:23,280
Speaker 6: dismantled and transitioned in all three of those matches. Then

799
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 6: he was suspended for the match against Arsenal where they

800
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 6: conceded over three expected goals and could not keep Arsenal

801
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:31,760
Speaker 6: out of their own final third for the entire second half,

802
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:34,320
Speaker 6: and then the two matches against Leeds and then obviously

803
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 6: against Leicester when they still created allowed one point six

804
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 6: expected goals. What is interesting about this though, was what

805
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 6: they did in the League Cup final. They basically played

806
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 6: so painfully direct and just didn't even try to build

807
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 6: out of the back. In that match, sixty percent of

808
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:54,760
Speaker 6: Dehey's passes went into Newcastle's final third of the pitch

809
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:56,399
Speaker 6: because he's not very good on the ball. So they

810
00:38:56,440 --> 00:39:00,359
Speaker 6: basically just said, and Newcastle is an incredibly good press team.

811
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 6: They obviously lead the Premier League in high turnovers. So

812
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 6: United said, let's not even try to build out of

813
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 6: the back. Let's just play those fifty to fifty balls

814
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 6: long and let's you know, play very direct, which is

815
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 6: something they've done under ten Hog for quite a long

816
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:16,319
Speaker 6: time now. United in that match had four to ten

817
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 6: plus pass sequences, a sixty five percent build up completion percentage.

818
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 4: That is awful for a team trying to build out

819
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 4: of the back.

820
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:25,240
Speaker 6: But guess what, they still scored two goals, but expected

821
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 6: goals was about even.

822
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 4: Now.

823
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:30,400
Speaker 6: The problem with United is, and especially without Castlemiro, is

824
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 6: if they are going to play that style again and

825
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 6: play very very direct, that plays into exactly what Newcastle

826
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 6: wants to do. Although Newcastle can't press them high, if

827
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:40,759
Speaker 6: United's going to send it long, Newcastle is better when

828
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:42,879
Speaker 6: they can play that very direct style. If you look

829
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:47,360
Speaker 6: at OPTA, they have forty one build up tax compared

830
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 6: to fifty eight or fifty.

831
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:49,720
Speaker 4: Four direct attacks.

832
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 6: So Newcastle is much better when they're playing that direct

833
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 6: style and guess what, They've been way better at home

834
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 6: than they have been on the road this season. Their

835
00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:58,720
Speaker 6: only loss has been to Liverpool. They have a plus

836
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:02,800
Speaker 6: thirteen point one expected oldfferential in thirteen matches, so well United.

837
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:04,840
Speaker 6: When they've had to play the top half of the

838
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 6: Premier League away from home as a minus six point

839
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,359
Speaker 6: six expected gold differential in six matches, they have not

840
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 6: been good. So without Casamiro, I do not see why

841
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 6: United should be even close to a pick them at

842
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 6: Saint James Park.

843
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 4: So I'll be on Newcastle.

844
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 6: I have them projected as minus one oh seven favorites,

845
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 6: so give you them drawn a bet at minus one thirty.

846
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 3: I'm sure we have some United fans who listened.

847
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 4: To this, and I hope they can.

848
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 3: They were probably so happy last week when we didn't

849
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 3: have a show and they were like, we don't have

850
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:30,959
Speaker 3: to listen to BJSA United is overrated this week.

851
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 6: But it's on Monday morning too, because I'll do the

852
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 6: same thing again.

853
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:38,759
Speaker 3: I actually think they'll lose to Benford, but we'll see.

854
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 3: Is it that Brdford or at United? It's at United,

855
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:42,640
Speaker 3: so we'll get like, you know, we'll get it.

856
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:43,240
Speaker 2: One and a half.

857
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:44,319
Speaker 4: It's gonna be. It's gonna happen.

858
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 6: What happened last year when we were all on Brentford.

859
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 6: It was on a Monday and United just beat them

860
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 6: three nothing.

861
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 2: That's what's gonna all right, Let's wrap up the Premier

862
00:40:55,160 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 2: League with a doozy another wonderful darby My Everden plus

863
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 2: two forty at home hosting BJ Spurs plus one twenty

864
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 2: the draws plus two thirty. Anthony, as the Spurs hater

865
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 2: on this show, you were calling for Conte to lose

866
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:13,799
Speaker 2: his job after spending all last year praising him.

867
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:15,760
Speaker 3: That's how it works.

868
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, do you do you think that this price is

869
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:22,839
Speaker 2: Do you think that the new manager Bounce has been

870
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:25,080
Speaker 2: baked too far into this price with the way that

871
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 2: Everton has turned into Real Madrid with Bernaldo on it.

872
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I think I was impressed with Everton's

873
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 3: attacking performance against Chelsea, not so much defensively. I thought

874
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 3: that they conceded too to Chelsea, but it easily could

875
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 3: have been three or four. And I still think, you know,

876
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 3: we talked about this going into last week with Chelsea

877
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 3: and Everton that you're Sean Dish, this is not Burnley

878
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:49,879
Speaker 3: Sean dische this is a much more high event team.

879
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 3: They're creating more chances than that Burnley team ever did,

880
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:55,759
Speaker 3: but they're also not nearly as good defensively. And I think,

881
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:57,720
Speaker 3: you know, from a Tottenham perspective, I think the numbers

882
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 3: about right in terms of like sides. You know, Spurs

883
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:03,400
Speaker 3: are rightfully favored, but I'm not betting Everton. You know,

884
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 3: you take a lot of juice to get the draw

885
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 3: protection there, so I like the over again. Over two

886
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:11,359
Speaker 3: and a half is plus money here. The biggest thing

887
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 3: with Tottenham and that I'm worried about is something BJ

888
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:16,719
Speaker 3: mentioned earlier, which is that you know, they do have

889
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 3: the most defensive final their touches, but they've been giving

890
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:22,800
Speaker 3: the ball away a lot and I think Everton, you know,

891
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 3: like I said, this is not normal dice. They're going

892
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 3: to you know, go after Spurs a little bit here

893
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:31,440
Speaker 3: and try to surprise them. Spurs were more aggressive under

894
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 3: Stalini when he was out for Conte. We kind of

895
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 3: got like a trial run of what it might look

896
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:38,879
Speaker 3: like with Stealini and Mason kind of managing because Kante

897
00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 3: had the medical procedure and they were much more aggressive

898
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:44,879
Speaker 3: themselves contesting midfield more trying to hold the ball higher

899
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:47,840
Speaker 3: up the pitch. Then the Conte teams, which were so defensive,

900
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 3: so much built on counters. So I think there's just

901
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 3: going to be more back and forth in this game.

902
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 3: I like the over.

903
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:54,399
Speaker 4: I agree, I love the over two.

904
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:56,800
Speaker 6: I mean we've been saying it for a bunch of weeks.

905
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 6: Now that you know Sean ditch is Everton, now is

906
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 6: this high event v style soccer. I mean, in his

907
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 6: it is eight matches in charge. Their matches are averaging

908
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:07,760
Speaker 6: three point two expected goals. And guess what Michael Everton

909
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:10,279
Speaker 6: has underperformed in those matches too. They've scored seven off

910
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 6: around twelve and a half expected So they're due for

911
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 6: a little bit of positive aggression here and you know

912
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 6: what we saw. I think this will kind of set

913
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:18,760
Speaker 6: We've seen it a couple of times now where Everton's

914
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 6: going to play a team that's either going to play,

915
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 6: you know, a three to five to two or some

916
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 6: version of a low block encounter. They've played against Villa

917
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 6: that match ended in about three and a half expected goals.

918
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:29,240
Speaker 6: They played against Forest that was a two to one match.

919
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 6: Then they obviously played against Brentford which they scored in

920
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 6: the very first minute but ended up conceding over two

921
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 6: expected goals to the Beast. So their problems in transition defense,

922
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 6: which were very very evident under Frank Lampard, still somewhat

923
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 6: exists under Sean Ditsche because he is being more aggressive.

924
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 6: By Anthony mentioned, he is trying to disrupt build up

925
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 6: play more rather than just sitting in that four four

926
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 6: to two.

927
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:49,760
Speaker 4: Low block structure.

928
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 6: If you watch, especially the match against Forests, the middle

929
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 6: of the pitch was wide open time and time again.

930
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 6: So doing that against Tottenham. Now, granted, how has Toddenham

931
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:00,399
Speaker 6: have been generating a lot of their chances under it's

932
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:02,560
Speaker 6: obviously getting the ball out wide and swinging crosses. They've

933
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:04,880
Speaker 6: completed the most process of anybody in the Premier League

934
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:07,280
Speaker 6: into the penalty area. And like we've said many many times,

935
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:09,319
Speaker 6: they are the best set piece team in the Premier League.

936
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:11,440
Speaker 6: Those are two things that Everton is very bad at.

937
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 6: They're dead lesson defending crosses and they're near the bottom

938
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:16,839
Speaker 6: of defending set pieces. So I think Todd's probably gonna

939
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:18,840
Speaker 6: put the ball on them back of the net twice here.

940
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 6: But I mean the way Everton's been playing these prices

941
00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:25,359
Speaker 6: have not adjusted for what Sean Ditch has been doing.

942
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 6: So I agree with the anthony. I love over two

943
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:29,680
Speaker 6: and a half goals and plus one fifteen. I have

944
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:33,359
Speaker 6: match projected at two point seven to seven goals. So yeah,

945
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 6: these Everton overs are just going to continue until the

946
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 6: market correct.

947
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:39,040
Speaker 3: So and one more thing, we're also out of fullbacks.

948
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:41,879
Speaker 3: Everybody's hurt. Ben Davias went off, He's gonna be out.

949
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:45,400
Speaker 3: Emerson Royal's out for the year. Parisage went off injured

950
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:49,360
Speaker 3: in the match for Croatia. Sessignon is a doubt to

951
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:51,400
Speaker 3: make this one. He might be back, but it seems

952
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 3: unlikely that leaves nobody except for Pedro Poro as fullbacks.

953
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:58,279
Speaker 3: So there could be some defensive issues for Toddenham here.

954
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 3: They may have to go back four out of necessity

955
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 3: that I don't know who's going to play left back

956
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 3: if Paris switches out, Like it's a very weird tactical

957
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:08,360
Speaker 3: issue that they're gonna have to deal with defense.

958
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 6: Probably probably Humman's son's gonna have to play some version

959
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:12,240
Speaker 6: of left wing back or something.

960
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 2: I'll say it again. I think I said this before

961
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 2: the Chelsea Everden match. I think it does make a

962
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 2: good live betting opportunity as well, like if everything go

963
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 2: down for them to get a point, because they do

964
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 2: have the ability to get back in games when they

965
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 2: chase them now as you saw. Yeah, and also Everden

966
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 2: entering this weekend are only twenty four points off of

967
00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:40,799
Speaker 2: top four, so or twenty three points off the top four,

968
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:44,839
Speaker 2: so look out all right? With that, that will wrap

969
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:47,279
Speaker 2: up the Premier League slate. We're going to go into

970
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 2: the Bundesliga now, and for that we will bring in

971
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 2: the only Bundesliga alumni that I have in my phone book.

972
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:57,960
Speaker 2: I don't know about you two. If you guys maybe

973
00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:01,480
Speaker 2: have the phone number for vague course or something, but

974
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 2: I don't. Eric Gnalda to talk about their Classicer and Eric,

975
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 2: the first question I got to ask you is we

976
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 2: got feedback from a loyal listener last season that he

977
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 2: told us he loves the show. He's in Germany. The

978
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 2: only constructive criticism he had was that they don't call

979
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:23,479
Speaker 2: it dirt Classicer in Germany. Yeah, so he it wasn't

980
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 2: that he asked us to stop, but he just it's

981
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 2: it's kind of like you're in California, a lot like

982
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 2: people in California don't say.

983
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 1: California game l traffico, I mean up too. So it's weird.

984
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 1: El classico is is the classic, and then their classicer

985
00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:41,239
Speaker 1: is it's I think that was created only a couple

986
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 1: of years ago.

987
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:43,759
Speaker 2: But hey, it was a foxy I was gonna say, I.

988
00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 1: Can remember what was there when they had the right stuff,

989
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 1: that would be a good idea.

990
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 5: But I's not the first time the Germans get get

991
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:55,200
Speaker 5: alienated by sending weird practices. But this is a good one. Guys,

992
00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:57,239
Speaker 5: it's a good I don't know what would give me

993
00:46:57,280 --> 00:46:57,920
Speaker 5: the numbers on it.

994
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:00,880
Speaker 2: Becaueah, I will. So this is a at twelve thirty

995
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 2: pm kickoff on Saturday afternoon in April Fools Day. Byron's

996
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 2: at home there minus two twenty three. Uh, Dortmann on

997
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:14,400
Speaker 2: the road five to one. The draw is four to one. Wow,

998
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 2: have a big number.

999
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 3: I mean it's going on at do It's going on

1000
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:18,719
Speaker 3: at Byron right now.

1001
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 4: Okay, so what happened?

1002
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 5: Let me let me catch you up on a couple

1003
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 5: of things.

1004
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 1: First of all, Noglesman has is not the same guy

1005
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 1: that he was maybe even six months ago.

1006
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:31,160
Speaker 5: Uh, he got a little full of himself.

1007
00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:34,879
Speaker 1: He had a couple of the odd meetings, let's say,

1008
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 1: with guys like and uh leroy SONI that it was

1009
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:39,879
Speaker 1: released that they wanted to get rid of those two

1010
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:41,839
Speaker 1: guys where they had put him on the on the block.

1011
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 5: Traditionally, that's what Byron does.

1012
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:45,520
Speaker 1: They say, well, this isn't good enough and it must

1013
00:47:45,520 --> 00:47:48,279
Speaker 1: be better, and they put that out in the media.

1014
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:49,319
Speaker 5: They do that deliberately.

1015
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 1: But if you watch his sideline antics, Noglesman had lost

1016
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 1: the team. They were done with a guy that was

1017
00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 1: basically their age younger acted like this and it was

1018
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:04,920
Speaker 1: just it was this strange set of circumstances. So the

1019
00:48:04,960 --> 00:48:07,279
Speaker 1: other big guy in this is Oliver Kahann. Oliver Khan

1020
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,319
Speaker 1: Is if you've seen him, he's just sooks up there

1021
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 1: like a stormtrooper. He's always always pissed off and he's

1022
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:15,520
Speaker 1: got a problem with everything. But he has been the

1023
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 1: number one critic of Nigelsman, and he didn't appreciate Nigel'sman

1024
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:25,359
Speaker 1: backing him privately. They when they let the goalkeeper coach

1025
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:28,160
Speaker 1: go and Noyer had his little ski accident. Concidentally, he

1026
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:30,840
Speaker 1: actually found out he was fired on the same slopes

1027
00:48:31,400 --> 00:48:35,120
Speaker 1: that Noyer got hurt on so that just had a

1028
00:48:35,160 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 1: bad look in its own right. But what an expensive move, guys.

1029
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 1: I mean, this thing could cost an access of sixty million.

1030
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 1: If he would have hung around and he would have

1031
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:48,640
Speaker 1: done well, they would have to pay the same amount.

1032
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 5: But they had just had it with him.

1033
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:53,719
Speaker 1: They've had it with his arrogance, and it really was,

1034
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 1: from what I'm hearing, warranted. It got to the point

1035
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 1: where he just got way ahead of himself. So the

1036
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:02,760
Speaker 1: internal strike is one thing, the selection is everything. I'm

1037
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:06,400
Speaker 1: really curious to see what this fire inside looks like.

1038
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:07,839
Speaker 5: Now they've struggled a little bit.

1039
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:12,640
Speaker 1: You go off those two penalty kicks against Labrakuzen from

1040
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 1: Pelasio has put them both away.

1041
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 5: But you know, they came out of the gates just

1042
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 5: getting ties.

1043
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 1: They've had a couple of a couple of games where

1044
00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:25,359
Speaker 1: they haven't looked themselves. You can see the internal strive.

1045
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 1: Sanae is not playing well. He's given the ball away

1046
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:30,720
Speaker 1: more than anybody. Musiala is now like an on offer.

1047
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:34,360
Speaker 1: He was getting great, great minutes at the beginning of this,

1048
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:35,839
Speaker 1: but they blamed it on the kid and.

1049
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:38,799
Speaker 5: They sat him out. So a couple of things as

1050
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:39,279
Speaker 5: far as the.

1051
00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 1: International breaks concerned, it effects fired a little bit more

1052
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 1: than Dormant in my opinion, and I think Dorman is

1053
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:48,759
Speaker 1: actually gonna hang in there. I got this, I got this,

1054
00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:51,320
Speaker 1: a high scoring tie again. The first one was too too.

1055
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 1: But I think Dortmant's got a real chance, a real chance.

1056
00:49:55,080 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 1: I know they've been leaking Golds, slaughterback and Humbles is

1057
00:49:57,760 --> 00:50:02,239
Speaker 1: in and out, but man, it's it is a great game.

1058
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:04,279
Speaker 1: This is gonna be a terrific game back and forth.

1059
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:06,279
Speaker 1: But I don't think Byron wins I.

1060
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:07,759
Speaker 5: Got to write a couple of weeks ago with it

1061
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:09,840
Speaker 5: too too, but I think this will be something similar.

1062
00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:12,960
Speaker 3: So I think the question is, you know, no, Gooseman

1063
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 3: to me is like a very full throttle We're gonna

1064
00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:19,160
Speaker 3: take chances, We're going to go for it. Tougle is

1065
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:23,799
Speaker 3: like the opposite, Like Tougle's very this is my way.

1066
00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:25,960
Speaker 3: We're going to have the ball. We're going to take

1067
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:27,520
Speaker 3: forever to get the ball into the final. We're never

1068
00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 3: going to give you the ball. I have chances, Like

1069
00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:32,920
Speaker 3: is that weird for like a a two week period

1070
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 3: for a completely different albeit there you know they're both

1071
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:39,160
Speaker 3: you know, same pedigree maybe, but different styles, like how

1072
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 3: does that impact? Like how long does it take a

1073
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:44,279
Speaker 3: manager to get like his imprint on a team like

1074
00:50:44,320 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 3: this when they've been playing a certain way all year?

1075
00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:46,960
Speaker 5: Great question.

1076
00:50:47,200 --> 00:50:49,080
Speaker 1: Well, then again, most of these guys played for Flick,

1077
00:50:49,160 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 1: so Hansi Flick was a very similar pragmatic coach to.

1078
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 5: What Touho will represent. It's did they have the balance?

1079
00:50:57,440 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 5: Are they going to be in a better mood?

1080
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:00,279
Speaker 1: I mean, if it was a different manager, I would

1081
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:02,120
Speaker 1: say yes, But too cool doesn't bring a good mood

1082
00:51:02,160 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 1: into a locker rooms. He's all about, you know, this

1083
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 1: is the way we're going to do It's by way

1084
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:10,399
Speaker 1: of the highway. So it's a great question. I think

1085
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:14,239
Speaker 1: it's all about response. But the reality of Bayern is

1086
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:17,279
Speaker 1: there will be a response. Whether it works out or

1087
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:20,479
Speaker 1: not is the question. And you know, Many has really

1088
00:51:20,560 --> 00:51:23,920
Speaker 1: not been much since coming back from from the injury.

1089
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 1: The pressure will be on to play him and he

1090
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:29,120
Speaker 1: hasn't been particularly good.

1091
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:31,319
Speaker 5: So Gordetska is another one.

1092
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:33,920
Speaker 1: Muller's is better when he's on the field, and he's

1093
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 1: when he's sitting on the bench shaking his head and

1094
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:36,439
Speaker 1: stirring it up.

1095
00:51:37,480 --> 00:51:39,800
Speaker 5: You could see it. You can actually see his discontent

1096
00:51:39,880 --> 00:51:41,759
Speaker 5: on the sideline. So this is due.

1097
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:44,839
Speaker 1: They're called FC Hollywood for a reason, they really are.

1098
00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:47,359
Speaker 1: I mean, it's always going to be this way. It's

1099
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 1: just a matter of you know, how they play without Noider,

1100
00:51:50,680 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 1: which has been odd. They're a better team with him.

1101
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:57,720
Speaker 1: And you know, you can't really blame Somemer for anything.

1102
00:51:57,760 --> 00:52:01,440
Speaker 1: He just hasn't anything wrong. He's just not Manuel Neuer.

1103
00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:05,759
Speaker 1: That's It's that simple. But I say again, guys, I

1104
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 1: got this. I got this at A two too. It

1105
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:09,800
Speaker 1: doesn't take long for Too Cool to get his ideas across.

1106
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:12,000
Speaker 1: But yeah, two weeks is.

1107
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 5: Not enough time.

1108
00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:15,360
Speaker 1: So they'll there'll be a better version of Byron in

1109
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:17,440
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks time. But but this one's gonna

1110
00:52:17,480 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 1: be a little hit and miss. It's not going to

1111
00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:22,080
Speaker 1: be the Byron explosion that everyone's expecting.

1112
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:24,719
Speaker 6: Well, let's go to that a couple of weeks from

1113
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:26,839
Speaker 6: now when they play Manchester City in the Champions League.

1114
00:52:27,040 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 6: How do you see how do you see that playing out?

1115
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:31,320
Speaker 6: It seems like for me, obviously, you know, the internal

1116
00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 6: strife is one thing, but it seems like a really

1117
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:36,200
Speaker 6: wild move when you're in the middle of untitle challenge

1118
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:39,160
Speaker 6: obviously in the Bundesliga and then right about to play

1119
00:52:39,239 --> 00:52:41,560
Speaker 6: Manchester City in the Champions League. To make this type

1120
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:44,800
Speaker 6: of manager I'll switch, and especially in tactics like Anthony mentioned,

1121
00:52:45,239 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 6: do you think it actually is going to be a

1122
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:49,839
Speaker 6: positive with Byron having this much time to prepare for

1123
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:51,759
Speaker 6: a match like City where Tach is obviously beating them

1124
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 6: in the Champions League final, and then.

1125
00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 5: But then again, Nas he didn't lose.

1126
00:52:57,480 --> 00:52:59,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, he won eight straight in the Champions and.

1127
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 1: He was terrific in this competition. I don't think they

1128
00:53:03,760 --> 00:53:06,400
Speaker 1: lose that that component of it. But then again, Toole

1129
00:53:06,440 --> 00:53:08,960
Speaker 1: does know how to beat Pep, so there's there's some

1130
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 1: history there, so this would be that'll be a fantastic matchup.

1131
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 1: I actually i've from the beginning and I can show

1132
00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:18,080
Speaker 1: you the ticket I had Byron.

1133
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:20,520
Speaker 5: Winning the Champions League this year. People, I think I

1134
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:22,920
Speaker 5: might have been somewhere in close to sixteen.

1135
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:25,920
Speaker 1: Or to one that the people, at least the bookmakers

1136
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:28,280
Speaker 1: here in Vegas couldn't couldn't seem to think that Byron

1137
00:53:28,280 --> 00:53:31,359
Speaker 1: would be under their circumstances, that you know, that much

1138
00:53:31,400 --> 00:53:32,880
Speaker 1: of a favor, And of course it had City and

1139
00:53:33,239 --> 00:53:35,840
Speaker 1: Real Madrid ahead of him, even Liverpool at that point.

1140
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:40,800
Speaker 1: But this is a competition that that is really Taylor

1141
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:44,520
Speaker 1: made to see to see one of those two make

1142
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:46,560
Speaker 1: it to a final. But we're gonna get it. We're

1143
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:48,880
Speaker 1: gonna get a final really early and it's.

1144
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:50,839
Speaker 5: Going to be good. But I give Byron the edge

1145
00:53:50,840 --> 00:53:51,719
Speaker 5: one that one. I really do.

1146
00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:54,000
Speaker 1: People think I'm crazy for saying that, but I think

1147
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:57,560
Speaker 1: Byron will will rise to the occasion when it comes

1148
00:53:57,560 --> 00:54:01,160
Speaker 1: to the Champions League, and that's that's a a fully

1149
00:54:01,160 --> 00:54:04,080
Speaker 1: different proposition than what the Bundesliga represents right now.

1150
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:06,040
Speaker 3: How much of a difference do you think it is?

1151
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:07,920
Speaker 3: You know, I think for me in the league, when

1152
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:10,040
Speaker 3: you watch Bayron, it's like they used to have Lewandowski,

1153
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:13,719
Speaker 3: who was the centerpiece of everything and was so reliable

1154
00:54:13,800 --> 00:54:17,280
Speaker 3: for giving them that separation from those teams and avoiding

1155
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:19,920
Speaker 3: those draws, and now it's just like it's Chee promoting,

1156
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:21,719
Speaker 3: who like has had an ok season, but like he's

1157
00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:25,480
Speaker 3: not he's just not Lemonovsky, like they didn't really replace him. Yeah.

1158
00:54:25,520 --> 00:54:27,160
Speaker 1: Well, and by the way, they're trying to make a

1159
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:30,440
Speaker 1: big deal out of this, this reunion of chep promoting

1160
00:54:30,560 --> 00:54:32,759
Speaker 1: and tookol because he had him at mindset, he had

1161
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:35,279
Speaker 1: him at PSG and guess what, you don't like each other.

1162
00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 5: So that's that's kind of.

1163
00:54:37,600 --> 00:54:39,160
Speaker 4: Like, oh this guy again, you know.

1164
00:54:39,280 --> 00:54:41,840
Speaker 5: So that's that's a big that's a big shout.

1165
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:43,759
Speaker 1: I mean, the reality of you know, we've heard the

1166
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:46,120
Speaker 1: whispers of Harry Kane was was was with one of

1167
00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:48,719
Speaker 1: their targets. They need someone like Thatch Pomoting is as

1168
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 1: good as he is, and what we need to also

1169
00:54:52,200 --> 00:54:53,319
Speaker 1: realize it's almost Miller.

1170
00:54:53,320 --> 00:54:54,719
Speaker 5: As much of a pain and ass as he can

1171
00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:55,960
Speaker 5: be at times.

1172
00:54:55,680 --> 00:54:58,759
Speaker 1: He's still one of the best passers of the ball

1173
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:01,759
Speaker 1: as a passing forward in those little plays where he

1174
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 1: doesn't hesitate and he does whatever it takes to get

1175
00:55:03,960 --> 00:55:05,480
Speaker 1: the ball where it needs to be. He's more of

1176
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:08,560
Speaker 1: a catalyst to Chipomoting's goals than anybody else. It started

1177
00:55:08,640 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 1: off with Canabre and Chupomolting having this this this connection,

1178
00:55:13,920 --> 00:55:16,719
Speaker 1: Kingsykuman started started playing better and then that's where all

1179
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:22,319
Speaker 1: of this went sideways on Nagelsman. But you know, I

1180
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:24,520
Speaker 1: feel bad for Chipo Molting because he's doing a good job.

1181
00:55:24,560 --> 00:55:26,799
Speaker 1: He's scoring goals and he's doing his job but at

1182
00:55:26,840 --> 00:55:29,040
Speaker 1: the end of the day, he'll never be Lewandowski. And

1183
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:31,400
Speaker 1: this is Byron. This is Byron.

1184
00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:33,680
Speaker 5: They're gonna have to go after a big name if

1185
00:55:33,680 --> 00:55:35,800
Speaker 5: they're going to pease everybody.

1186
00:55:35,239 --> 00:55:39,880
Speaker 1: In this conversation, including the stormtrooper Oliver caught up in

1187
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 1: the stands.

1188
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:44,920
Speaker 3: So the US men did play a couple of games. Uh,

1189
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:47,719
Speaker 3: where were your reactions? Anybody stand out to you? I

1190
00:55:47,880 --> 00:55:50,960
Speaker 3: didn't get to catch the L Salador match, but uh,

1191
00:55:51,280 --> 00:55:53,040
Speaker 3: you know, what were your takeaways? And are you excited

1192
00:55:53,080 --> 00:55:56,560
Speaker 3: for potential Mexico matchup in July in Vegas.

1193
00:55:57,719 --> 00:56:00,880
Speaker 1: I just want to see Bellagon played for the United States.

1194
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:03,200
Speaker 1: That took all the headlines. Guys, we're sitting here talking

1195
00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:06,799
Speaker 1: about Grenada and El Salvador, but we were having more

1196
00:56:06,840 --> 00:56:11,319
Speaker 1: fun tracking Florian Balagun in his trip to Orlando. You

1197
00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:14,759
Speaker 1: know that was supposed to be coincidental, not at all.

1198
00:56:14,760 --> 00:56:16,839
Speaker 1: There was a lot of conversations had with this guy.

1199
00:56:17,360 --> 00:56:20,399
Speaker 1: Peppy was the pleasant surprise, you know, And I think

1200
00:56:20,440 --> 00:56:25,839
Speaker 1: people in America are realizing that you put a kid

1201
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:28,200
Speaker 1: in that kind of environment. He's in a relegation fight.

1202
00:56:28,920 --> 00:56:30,520
Speaker 1: He has to show up to at work every day.

1203
00:56:30,520 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 1: He's not allowed to smile until something good happens.

1204
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:33,719
Speaker 5: That's the way it works over there.

1205
00:56:34,080 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 1: You come to America, everybody pat you on the back

1206
00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:38,440
Speaker 1: and says good job, Hey, I love you, You sign an autograph.

1207
00:56:38,960 --> 00:56:40,960
Speaker 1: You come out of that locker room after a loss,

1208
00:56:41,200 --> 00:56:43,040
Speaker 1: and you got the same dance standing there with the

1209
00:56:43,120 --> 00:56:45,360
Speaker 1: kid telling me, there's that idiot that didn't score it.

1210
00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:47,920
Speaker 1: Don't ever be like that guy. That's a different pressure,

1211
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:51,880
Speaker 1: it's a different feeling that Ricardo was actually learning that

1212
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:55,760
Speaker 1: this means something. It's not just play and be happy

1213
00:56:55,760 --> 00:56:57,960
Speaker 1: if you score. And yeah, so what we didn't you know,

1214
00:56:58,239 --> 00:57:00,760
Speaker 1: we didn't we didn't get a goal. He looked different

1215
00:57:01,160 --> 00:57:03,840
Speaker 1: to me, He looked very different. Even in his warm

1216
00:57:03,920 --> 00:57:05,920
Speaker 1: up before the El Salvador game, he was ready to go.

1217
00:57:06,440 --> 00:57:08,800
Speaker 1: He knows he's in a fight not just for relegation

1218
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 1: back home, but also for that number nine shirt. So

1219
00:57:11,719 --> 00:57:15,120
Speaker 1: I loved seeing that space at El Salvador. He runs

1220
00:57:15,160 --> 00:57:17,680
Speaker 1: past do Mingez, who looks like somebody that you'd find

1221
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:22,880
Speaker 1: in a Santa Barbara Soccer Sunday League, but he's not

1222
00:57:22,920 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 1: really an international defender. That goal doesn't happen against Holland

1223
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:29,840
Speaker 1: or Belgium or you know, anybody.

1224
00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:33,000
Speaker 5: That at an international level. But with all that being said,

1225
00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:34,600
Speaker 5: when he had his chance he finished it well. So

1226
00:57:34,640 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 5: Pepe was that was the standout for me.

1227
00:57:38,320 --> 00:57:40,800
Speaker 1: I do like this dilatory kid. Dilatory is a good

1228
00:57:40,800 --> 00:57:42,680
Speaker 1: passer of the ball. He was best eleven in the

1229
00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:44,640
Speaker 1: La Liga a couple of weeks ago. For a reason.

1230
00:57:45,720 --> 00:57:48,920
Speaker 1: It's just weird if we were talking about this internally

1231
00:57:49,000 --> 00:57:53,160
Speaker 1: the other players and stuff. Yeah, Adams, Mussa and McKinny,

1232
00:57:53,960 --> 00:57:55,880
Speaker 1: they're all the same player, just a different version of it.

1233
00:57:56,920 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 1: And the problem is that old those three are always

1234
00:57:59,720 --> 00:58:02,760
Speaker 1: going to it's Burholter or maybe even Anthony Judson if

1235
00:58:02,800 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 1: they're fit, and that's not good enough. We don't encourage

1236
00:58:05,760 --> 00:58:07,800
Speaker 1: the idea of having somebody with like like a ten,

1237
00:58:08,000 --> 00:58:10,240
Speaker 1: like a dilatory who can actually pass the ball. We

1238
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:14,480
Speaker 1: got to see Zendehaus, who's not bad, but I just

1239
00:58:14,520 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 1: don't think he's ever going to move the meter when

1240
00:58:17,000 --> 00:58:19,000
Speaker 1: it comes to playing against European opposition.

1241
00:58:19,280 --> 00:58:21,640
Speaker 5: And rain I got some minutes as a ten, which

1242
00:58:21,720 --> 00:58:22,520
Speaker 5: was cool to see.

1243
00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:25,720
Speaker 1: If he scores, it's almost better guys that he didn't

1244
00:58:25,760 --> 00:58:28,960
Speaker 1: score that he hit the post right at the beginning

1245
00:58:28,960 --> 00:58:31,040
Speaker 1: of the second half. If he scores that United States

1246
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:34,520
Speaker 1: wins won nothing. It's just it opens up that whole.

1247
00:58:34,280 --> 00:58:37,080
Speaker 5: Can of worms again, and everyone's throwing rocks and saying,

1248
00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:40,160
Speaker 5: you know, screw the Rainas and Burholter is a jerk,

1249
00:58:40,240 --> 00:58:42,400
Speaker 5: and I'm glad it didn't happen. We got out of

1250
00:58:42,440 --> 00:58:42,920
Speaker 5: there with the win.

1251
00:58:43,000 --> 00:58:46,000
Speaker 1: Pepe gets the goal, whatever, But we're not talking about

1252
00:58:46,080 --> 00:58:48,120
Speaker 1: Raina anymore, which is great. He can go home, he

1253
00:58:48,120 --> 00:58:52,360
Speaker 1: can focus on his football and have his contributions for dormant.

1254
00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:55,520
Speaker 1: But all in all, it was it's kind of like

1255
00:58:55,560 --> 00:58:58,280
Speaker 1: a you know, the Nation's League is It's really as

1256
00:58:58,360 --> 00:58:59,920
Speaker 1: much as the people are saying this is a good thing,

1257
00:59:00,320 --> 00:59:01,120
Speaker 1: it hinders us.

1258
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:03,480
Speaker 5: We don't get to play against good opposition. We have

1259
00:59:03,560 --> 00:59:06,840
Speaker 5: to play against Brenda and El Salvador and then we

1260
00:59:06,880 --> 00:59:08,480
Speaker 5: call it a victory when we win. We need to

1261
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:11,320
Speaker 5: be playing against better teams than that. You look at Cleansman.

1262
00:59:11,360 --> 00:59:14,520
Speaker 1: Cleansman heads over to UH Korea and the first thing

1263
00:59:14,560 --> 00:59:17,200
Speaker 1: he tries to do is open up that that big

1264
00:59:17,320 --> 00:59:20,240
Speaker 1: mess from the World Cup against Uruguay, which I commend

1265
00:59:20,320 --> 00:59:23,480
Speaker 1: him for. You remember, after all the controversy and Cavati

1266
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 1: breaking stuff, And he says, hey, let's play that game.

1267
00:59:25,920 --> 00:59:27,680
Speaker 1: He scheduled him right away and then they had to

1268
00:59:27,720 --> 00:59:30,960
Speaker 1: tie against Columbia. So that's how you do it. You you,

1269
00:59:30,960 --> 00:59:34,480
Speaker 1: you know, you basically you go after great opposition. We're

1270
00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:36,600
Speaker 1: handcuffed right now because we have to play against teams

1271
00:59:36,600 --> 00:59:40,720
Speaker 1: that are certainly not they're definitely inferior to who we are.

1272
00:59:40,760 --> 00:59:42,600
Speaker 1: But I gotta go backwards though. I got to get

1273
00:59:42,640 --> 00:59:45,160
Speaker 1: you on that Brighton Brentford thing. I know that, I

1274
00:59:45,200 --> 00:59:46,880
Speaker 1: know we're to talking about Germany and everything now we're

1275
00:59:46,880 --> 00:59:47,160
Speaker 1: going to.

1276
00:59:47,160 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 4: But that's fine. We're always happy to talk about.

1277
00:59:49,920 --> 00:59:53,160
Speaker 1: Brentford is doing something very different from an analytical standpoint.

1278
00:59:53,720 --> 00:59:57,520
Speaker 1: You know, watching them play, Thomas Frank does something very

1279
00:59:57,640 --> 01:00:01,880
Speaker 1: unique and it's working. You can do the numbers on this,

1280
01:00:02,000 --> 01:00:05,920
Speaker 1: the chances created, chances that are actually put on goals.

1281
01:00:06,080 --> 01:00:09,080
Speaker 1: Most teams will create ten to fifteen chances a game

1282
01:00:09,480 --> 01:00:11,480
Speaker 1: and then they get one or two or three you know,

1283
01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:15,360
Speaker 1: our goal. The numbers are unreal over fifty percent of

1284
01:00:15,400 --> 01:00:17,040
Speaker 1: the time. Brentford, when they create a.

1285
01:00:17,040 --> 01:00:20,160
Speaker 5: Chance, they put it on target. Now there's a reason

1286
01:00:20,280 --> 01:00:22,439
Speaker 5: for it. They do this rest thing.

1287
01:00:22,560 --> 01:00:25,960
Speaker 1: I call it the ambush ambush attack where they literally

1288
01:00:26,640 --> 01:00:29,520
Speaker 1: all understand exactly when those moments are and they'll go

1289
01:00:29,640 --> 01:00:33,040
Speaker 1: five to seven minutes in rest mode. Nobody else does this.

1290
01:00:33,280 --> 01:00:35,680
Speaker 1: They're one of those teams that is completely giving up

1291
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:37,440
Speaker 1: on the idea that they have to have possession of

1292
01:00:37,480 --> 01:00:40,120
Speaker 1: the ball. They've figured out a way to rest on defense.

1293
01:00:40,640 --> 01:00:42,040
Speaker 5: That's it. That's all it is.

1294
01:00:42,680 --> 01:00:44,400
Speaker 1: I could go into all the specifics and all the

1295
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:46,000
Speaker 1: other stuff, but when you still have a guy like

1296
01:00:46,040 --> 01:00:47,760
Speaker 1: Ivan Tony and your team, and I'm with you, I

1297
01:00:47,760 --> 01:00:48,520
Speaker 1: don't think they're going.

1298
01:00:48,520 --> 01:00:50,680
Speaker 5: To come up with anything. They're going to delay that

1299
01:00:50,760 --> 01:00:51,720
Speaker 5: until the end of the season.

1300
01:00:51,720 --> 01:00:53,920
Speaker 1: They're not going to have to deal with the suspension

1301
01:00:54,000 --> 01:00:57,200
Speaker 1: until the appeal is completely addressed. So expect them to

1302
01:00:57,240 --> 01:01:00,280
Speaker 1: be on the field, which is a good thing. But look,

1303
01:01:01,040 --> 01:01:03,040
Speaker 1: Brentford is a is an odd team.

1304
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:04,479
Speaker 5: All this is going to come down to you. Here's

1305
01:01:04,520 --> 01:01:07,880
Speaker 5: my point is who who wants it more? Right?

1306
01:01:08,120 --> 01:01:11,160
Speaker 1: Because these are two teams that have overachieved, They're sitting

1307
01:01:11,160 --> 01:01:12,960
Speaker 1: in the middle of the table. They have other teams

1308
01:01:13,280 --> 01:01:15,960
Speaker 1: like Chelsea who have really missed, you know, underperformed.

1309
01:01:16,560 --> 01:01:19,040
Speaker 5: What are they playing for? They can't go up and

1310
01:01:19,080 --> 01:01:19,880
Speaker 5: they can't go down.

1311
01:01:20,600 --> 01:01:23,320
Speaker 1: The mentality of the player is everything right now, because

1312
01:01:23,360 --> 01:01:26,520
Speaker 1: you could see a couple of guys coasting throughout the

1313
01:01:26,600 --> 01:01:28,800
Speaker 1: end of the season. I don't expect much out of Mcowis,

1314
01:01:28,800 --> 01:01:30,439
Speaker 1: for example, after that trip back home.

1315
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:33,760
Speaker 5: Uh, he's probably, you know, still trying to hydrate.

1316
01:01:33,840 --> 01:01:36,520
Speaker 1: But I think I think Brighton's going to be one

1317
01:01:36,520 --> 01:01:39,840
Speaker 1: of those oppositions that Brentford take. They will take them,

1318
01:01:40,280 --> 01:01:42,600
Speaker 1: and it won't it won't be a high scoring game,

1319
01:01:42,640 --> 01:01:43,960
Speaker 1: but I think Brentford.

1320
01:01:44,160 --> 01:01:45,520
Speaker 5: Uh, Brainford gets it.

1321
01:01:45,640 --> 01:01:47,680
Speaker 1: Did you guys have anything that you wanted to hear

1322
01:01:47,720 --> 01:01:50,560
Speaker 1: from the other half of the Bundesligue because there's some

1323
01:01:50,680 --> 01:01:51,720
Speaker 1: crazy games in there.

1324
01:01:52,240 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 2: Well, we're actually gonna go around real quick, uh and

1325
01:01:55,600 --> 01:01:57,800
Speaker 2: do our favorite bets in the Bundesliga.

1326
01:01:58,040 --> 01:01:58,200
Speaker 1: Uh.

1327
01:01:58,840 --> 01:02:00,640
Speaker 5: I want to hear you out there that one. I've

1328
01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:01,800
Speaker 5: got one that's going to shock you.

1329
01:02:03,040 --> 01:02:06,240
Speaker 2: I'm gonna see if I could pull it out. Uh.

1330
01:02:06,280 --> 01:02:09,040
Speaker 2: Stuttgart against Unjan.

1331
01:02:09,600 --> 01:02:13,080
Speaker 1: So, I actually think that is a surprise. They've been

1332
01:02:13,160 --> 01:02:16,080
Speaker 1: horrible of late. I think stutgartt does take them. Union

1333
01:02:16,160 --> 01:02:16,600
Speaker 1: is not.

1334
01:02:17,000 --> 01:02:17,680
Speaker 5: They were They were.

1335
01:02:17,600 --> 01:02:21,400
Speaker 1: Okay against Frankfurt, not great. They get to win, but

1336
01:02:21,600 --> 01:02:23,439
Speaker 1: that's too zero win and they got Franklin. I think

1337
01:02:23,560 --> 01:02:27,240
Speaker 1: in the Pocal next week after this. But Union Berlin

1338
01:02:27,320 --> 01:02:28,120
Speaker 1: is not that good.

1339
01:02:28,400 --> 01:02:31,200
Speaker 5: They're just not They're not that good at all. And

1340
01:02:31,200 --> 01:02:32,600
Speaker 5: and Stutgart is motivated.

1341
01:02:32,600 --> 01:02:35,040
Speaker 1: Bruno l Abadilla, he's this is the kind of moment

1342
01:02:35,040 --> 01:02:37,040
Speaker 1: where he gets to actually figure it out. It's going

1343
01:02:37,080 --> 01:02:39,840
Speaker 1: to be an absolute fight. But I think I'm I'm

1344
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:41,720
Speaker 1: with you. I think I think Stuart Gart does take him.

1345
01:02:42,600 --> 01:02:43,040
Speaker 5: Well, there you go.

1346
01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:45,160
Speaker 3: That's my best bet in Germany this weekend, which is

1347
01:02:45,200 --> 01:02:47,400
Speaker 3: Stutgart to win or on the road.

1348
01:02:48,000 --> 01:02:48,160
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1349
01:02:48,160 --> 01:02:49,720
Speaker 3: I mean we've talked about this on our show all year,

1350
01:02:49,720 --> 01:02:53,560
Speaker 3: Like Unjon Rode this early season wave of just like

1351
01:02:53,640 --> 01:02:56,120
Speaker 3: every shot they took went in and not just you know,

1352
01:02:56,160 --> 01:02:57,920
Speaker 3: they they were you know, the bottom of the league

1353
01:02:57,920 --> 01:03:00,800
Speaker 3: in every attacking category and and have not been able

1354
01:03:00,840 --> 01:03:03,120
Speaker 3: to hold up of late. You know, you've started to

1355
01:03:03,120 --> 01:03:05,240
Speaker 3: see the the you know, the numbers fall off. You know,

1356
01:03:05,240 --> 01:03:06,919
Speaker 3: they failed to score against Shop and they get paced

1357
01:03:06,960 --> 01:03:09,200
Speaker 3: by Byron, They can't score against Colne, they get one

1358
01:03:09,240 --> 01:03:12,400
Speaker 3: against Wolfsburg and like you said, they were completely outplayed

1359
01:03:12,680 --> 01:03:15,000
Speaker 3: most of that match against Frankfurt and then you know won.

1360
01:03:14,920 --> 01:03:17,840
Speaker 1: It late lucky goal too, substitute gets a lucky goal

1361
01:03:17,880 --> 01:03:20,280
Speaker 1: and you know, po Folk has been, Jordan has been

1362
01:03:20,400 --> 01:03:22,600
Speaker 1: has been a shadow of himself.

1363
01:03:22,640 --> 01:03:24,200
Speaker 5: He doesn't even look like he wants to be out

1364
01:03:24,240 --> 01:03:24,960
Speaker 5: there sometimes.

1365
01:03:25,360 --> 01:03:28,160
Speaker 1: So I'm I think, I think this this stutt Guard

1366
01:03:28,280 --> 01:03:31,040
Speaker 1: side is going to be highly motivated.

1367
01:03:31,160 --> 01:03:32,680
Speaker 5: They like to go on the road in these kind

1368
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:33,320
Speaker 5: of scenarios.

1369
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:34,800
Speaker 1: You got to understand, this is one of the biggest

1370
01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:37,760
Speaker 1: clubs in Germany, the biggest fan base. Is there's being

1371
01:03:37,800 --> 01:03:41,040
Speaker 1: in last place. Uh, they're they're primed and ready for

1372
01:03:41,080 --> 01:03:43,480
Speaker 1: a bounce. They just needed to sit back for a week,

1373
01:03:43,560 --> 01:03:46,200
Speaker 1: lick their wounds and get ready. But I think they

1374
01:03:46,240 --> 01:03:49,040
Speaker 1: take Union Berlin for sure now. The other one is

1375
01:03:49,080 --> 01:03:52,400
Speaker 1: Bocham Bucham's on a weird run. Shlka is on a

1376
01:03:52,440 --> 01:03:53,720
Speaker 1: weird run. Uh.

1377
01:03:54,000 --> 01:03:56,360
Speaker 5: Both of those could could put up a fight.

1378
01:03:56,440 --> 01:04:00,560
Speaker 1: But the weird ones that I have is mince Minz

1379
01:04:00,680 --> 01:04:04,120
Speaker 1: and and and Leipzig. Leipzig is in a weird pocket

1380
01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:07,720
Speaker 1: now too. From what I'm hearing, Marco Roses is doing

1381
01:04:07,720 --> 01:04:10,640
Speaker 1: his things. Is what always happens. Everybody's all excited and

1382
01:04:10,720 --> 01:04:13,720
Speaker 1: he gets six months into the job and and his

1383
01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:15,960
Speaker 1: team starts to underperform. It happened in glad Boch It

1384
01:04:16,000 --> 01:04:17,479
Speaker 1: happened to Norman, It's happening now.

1385
01:04:18,280 --> 01:04:19,200
Speaker 5: Minz is unbeaten in.

1386
01:04:19,200 --> 01:04:22,640
Speaker 1: Their last six so uh, they're a team that that

1387
01:04:23,720 --> 01:04:26,360
Speaker 1: literally nobody's going out the international break, so they got

1388
01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:28,200
Speaker 1: a chance to rest up and get ready and prepare

1389
01:04:28,200 --> 01:04:28,680
Speaker 1: for this one.

1390
01:04:28,720 --> 01:04:29,840
Speaker 5: So watch out for Mines.

1391
01:04:30,520 --> 01:04:32,840
Speaker 1: Uh and the last one is well at the end

1392
01:04:32,880 --> 01:04:35,000
Speaker 1: of the season. The end of the season.

1393
01:04:35,000 --> 01:04:37,520
Speaker 5: I you know, I get it, you know, Liver Cousin's

1394
01:04:37,560 --> 01:04:38,120
Speaker 5: got Shalako.

1395
01:04:38,240 --> 01:04:41,160
Speaker 1: But I think that when this is all said, the

1396
01:04:41,200 --> 01:04:41,959
Speaker 1: manager of the year.

1397
01:04:41,920 --> 01:04:45,160
Speaker 5: Is going to be Javi Alonzo. What he did to

1398
01:04:45,360 --> 01:04:49,040
Speaker 5: Byron was a masterclass. It was unreal, it was. It

1399
01:04:49,160 --> 01:04:50,440
Speaker 5: was so good.

1400
01:04:51,320 --> 01:04:53,880
Speaker 1: Even had the commentators perplexed. You're like, we've never seen

1401
01:04:53,880 --> 01:04:58,280
Speaker 1: this before. They're pressing Byron and winning, getting two penalty kicks.

1402
01:04:58,520 --> 01:05:01,160
Speaker 5: Plasios was was to rific on the day. He's probably

1403
01:05:01,160 --> 01:05:02,320
Speaker 5: on the he's he's.

1404
01:05:02,200 --> 01:05:04,720
Speaker 1: Kind of like a better version of Jabby, so he's

1405
01:05:04,760 --> 01:05:06,440
Speaker 1: like he's got himself to coach, you know.

1406
01:05:07,080 --> 01:05:09,520
Speaker 5: But I think Lera Cousin is gonna start pushing the meter.

1407
01:05:09,560 --> 01:05:11,920
Speaker 5: It's gonna be weird. Lips is gonna start falling off.

1408
01:05:11,920 --> 01:05:15,160
Speaker 5: Onion's gonna fall off for Iberg will Stall laver cousin

1409
01:05:15,240 --> 01:05:17,920
Speaker 5: is going to make an unprecedented push there. They're my

1410
01:05:18,040 --> 01:05:19,000
Speaker 5: dark horse for this thing.

1411
01:05:20,080 --> 01:05:25,600
Speaker 3: I know, b J and I were texting, uh what yesterday, yesterday.

1412
01:05:25,280 --> 01:05:27,800
Speaker 6: Two days ago? Yeah, about Leverkusen. They're gonna win the

1413
01:05:27,800 --> 01:05:28,360
Speaker 6: Europa League.

1414
01:05:28,800 --> 01:05:33,040
Speaker 5: Who do you think the next coach of Real Madrid isna.

1415
01:05:35,200 --> 01:05:37,200
Speaker 6: He's already got He's already he's already hunting Real sick.

1416
01:05:37,840 --> 01:05:38,920
Speaker 6: Come on, come on, you.

1417
01:05:38,920 --> 01:05:42,280
Speaker 3: Know it's I agree on Leipzig on that spot. Though

1418
01:05:42,520 --> 01:05:46,000
Speaker 3: Leipzig has Dortmund in the pocal like you said, you know,

1419
01:05:46,120 --> 01:05:49,160
Speaker 3: out of Champions League, chance to get some silverware. I

1420
01:05:49,200 --> 01:05:51,000
Speaker 3: think there canna be much more focused on that match

1421
01:05:51,040 --> 01:05:53,200
Speaker 3: up with Dortmund, get revenge on Dortmand for that win

1422
01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:55,880
Speaker 3: a couple of weeks ago. I think they're definitely flat

1423
01:05:56,040 --> 01:05:59,240
Speaker 3: here against Mind. But uh it's gonna be I'll sna be.

1424
01:05:59,800 --> 01:06:01,560
Speaker 5: Mine is a little bit better than we thought. It

1425
01:06:01,560 --> 01:06:02,640
Speaker 5: happens every once in a while.

1426
01:06:02,640 --> 01:06:08,000
Speaker 3: I mean, we love min we love Yeah, it's it's

1427
01:06:08,040 --> 01:06:10,800
Speaker 3: it's it's good stuff by the way, it's but that's

1428
01:06:10,840 --> 01:06:11,240
Speaker 3: it for me.

1429
01:06:12,000 --> 01:06:13,280
Speaker 5: That that's all I've got.

1430
01:06:13,360 --> 01:06:16,200
Speaker 1: I think the other one that's going to be fun

1431
01:06:16,240 --> 01:06:20,120
Speaker 1: to watch, though, is at some point if you ever

1432
01:06:20,120 --> 01:06:21,240
Speaker 1: want to want to get into I don't know how

1433
01:06:21,240 --> 01:06:23,919
Speaker 1: many people are betting on the German second division, but man,

1434
01:06:24,160 --> 01:06:28,840
Speaker 1: this is getting cool. Hamburg, Yeah, Hamburg, Hamburg needs I mean,

1435
01:06:28,840 --> 01:06:30,760
Speaker 1: I'm gonna put my money on them to go back up.

1436
01:06:32,280 --> 01:06:34,200
Speaker 5: You know, they're they're they're doing it the right way.

1437
01:06:34,400 --> 01:06:34,560
Speaker 6: Uh.

1438
01:06:34,600 --> 01:06:37,680
Speaker 1: There, there's certainly a team that that almost like two

1439
01:06:37,680 --> 01:06:39,720
Speaker 1: three players away from Bundesliga quality.

1440
01:06:40,320 --> 01:06:42,280
Speaker 5: They had a rough start, but but I really like

1441
01:06:42,360 --> 01:06:45,680
Speaker 5: them right now. But there's seems like like like Darmstadt.

1442
01:06:45,680 --> 01:06:47,560
Speaker 5: I mean, it's just embarrassing. They're gonna go back up

1443
01:06:47,560 --> 01:06:48,919
Speaker 5: and they're gonna go right back down there.

1444
01:06:48,920 --> 01:06:51,160
Speaker 1: They're just never gonna be good enough for the Bundesliga

1445
01:06:51,160 --> 01:06:52,200
Speaker 1: because they don't have the money.

1446
01:06:52,920 --> 01:06:55,240
Speaker 5: But teams like House Fouler are are going to be

1447
01:06:55,280 --> 01:06:57,560
Speaker 5: fun to watch in the Bundesliga next year. They're they're very,

1448
01:06:57,680 --> 01:06:58,120
Speaker 5: very good.

1449
01:06:58,600 --> 01:07:01,360
Speaker 2: That's beautiful. We thank you for stopping bye this week

1450
01:07:01,480 --> 01:07:06,640
Speaker 2: a little Bundesliga segment. I'll be with you. Uh sort of,

1451
01:07:06,800 --> 01:07:08,840
Speaker 2: I'm going to bet Dortmund at that number. I know

1452
01:07:08,880 --> 01:07:10,680
Speaker 2: you're saying high schooling job, but I think the variants

1453
01:07:10,720 --> 01:07:12,400
Speaker 2: there and BJ I think you were kind of going

1454
01:07:12,440 --> 01:07:15,960
Speaker 2: the other way with the play, and I feel like

1455
01:07:15,960 --> 01:07:17,720
Speaker 2: this is your annual play or no, this is Anthony

1456
01:07:17,760 --> 01:07:18,800
Speaker 2: excuse me, the annual.

1457
01:07:19,040 --> 01:07:20,600
Speaker 3: I bet the under in this picture every time, and

1458
01:07:20,600 --> 01:07:22,120
Speaker 3: I have used so I got a debate if I

1459
01:07:22,160 --> 01:07:22,800
Speaker 3: want to do it again.

1460
01:07:23,320 --> 01:07:27,120
Speaker 5: No, no, no, no, dormant can't. That's the thing right on

1461
01:07:27,160 --> 01:07:29,240
Speaker 5: that even if it's like three to one, they're still

1462
01:07:29,240 --> 01:07:31,120
Speaker 5: gonna kick it in their ownave. That's just what they do.

1463
01:07:31,200 --> 01:07:31,680
Speaker 5: I mean, yeah.

1464
01:07:32,320 --> 01:07:35,520
Speaker 3: The thing about it is the first meeting, Byron did

1465
01:07:35,520 --> 01:07:38,120
Speaker 3: not even attempt to shot until the forty first minute.

1466
01:07:38,520 --> 01:07:40,560
Speaker 3: Uh and Dortmann I think had two in the first half.

1467
01:07:40,560 --> 01:07:42,800
Speaker 3: It was a very slow start. I wouldn't be shocked

1468
01:07:42,800 --> 01:07:45,760
Speaker 3: to see something similar, especially if tucle wants to say, hey, look,

1469
01:07:46,200 --> 01:07:49,520
Speaker 3: you know we've been struggling. Let's be very pragmatic and

1470
01:07:49,520 --> 01:07:51,680
Speaker 3: try to grind them out. But like you said, Doorman's

1471
01:07:51,680 --> 01:07:56,040
Speaker 3: milliaguing goals too, so it I mean it f three.

1472
01:07:55,880 --> 01:07:58,760
Speaker 5: Two for somebody. I'm still think it's a two too.

1473
01:07:58,840 --> 01:08:01,840
Speaker 1: But I would not be fries at all if Toucle's

1474
01:08:01,880 --> 01:08:03,520
Speaker 1: first game out of the gates is not a good one.

1475
01:08:03,560 --> 01:08:04,760
Speaker 5: I wouldn't be surprised at all.

1476
01:08:06,040 --> 01:08:09,320
Speaker 2: All right, we thank Eric Nalda for his time. Now

1477
01:08:09,360 --> 01:08:12,680
Speaker 2: we'll move on to Syria a talk a little lat League.

1478
01:08:12,720 --> 01:08:16,640
Speaker 2: After that, legal do our three leg underdog parlay and

1479
01:08:16,680 --> 01:08:18,519
Speaker 2: then give out our favorite bets in the Premier League

1480
01:08:18,760 --> 01:08:24,800
Speaker 2: for this upcoming match week. Italy bj M, what do

1481
01:08:24,840 --> 01:08:25,200
Speaker 2: you got?

1482
01:08:25,600 --> 01:08:30,080
Speaker 4: I like? Udin Essay on the road against Bologna. Udin Essay.

1483
01:08:30,120 --> 01:08:34,160
Speaker 6: This season had a really, really like Torrid start. They

1484
01:08:34,240 --> 01:08:37,120
Speaker 6: won six straight matches. They beat Roma four nothing, they

1485
01:08:37,160 --> 01:08:40,519
Speaker 6: beat Enter three to one. But they went through this

1486
01:08:40,840 --> 01:08:42,880
Speaker 6: big swoon in the middle of the season where they've

1487
01:08:42,920 --> 01:08:46,360
Speaker 6: won just one match in seventeen and seventeen tries. They

1488
01:08:46,360 --> 01:08:49,160
Speaker 6: were underperforming during that stretch, had a minus six actual

1489
01:08:49,160 --> 01:08:51,120
Speaker 6: deferential VERSUI, only a minus one and a half expected

1490
01:08:51,120 --> 01:08:53,479
Speaker 6: goal differential, and during that time they only picked up

1491
01:08:53,520 --> 01:08:56,120
Speaker 6: thirteen points when their expected points was around twenty two.

1492
01:08:56,640 --> 01:08:59,200
Speaker 4: They have won their last two matches now, they including.

1493
01:08:58,880 --> 01:09:01,240
Speaker 6: A FATIC three one Acey Milan this past weekend, so

1494
01:09:01,240 --> 01:09:03,080
Speaker 6: it looks like they've gotten their confidence back a little bit.

1495
01:09:03,520 --> 01:09:07,280
Speaker 6: And Uden Essay. They're a very direct, counter attacking team.

1496
01:09:07,360 --> 01:09:09,479
Speaker 6: They typically play out with three five to two. They

1497
01:09:09,520 --> 01:09:12,080
Speaker 6: love to get the ball out wide areas and they

1498
01:09:12,200 --> 01:09:14,160
Speaker 6: I was reading some tackle stuff about them, because I'll

1499
01:09:14,160 --> 01:09:16,320
Speaker 6: be honest, I haven't watched every single uton Esse match

1500
01:09:16,360 --> 01:09:19,400
Speaker 6: this season, but they do this very coy tactical thing

1501
01:09:19,439 --> 01:09:21,920
Speaker 6: which I think could be very effective against Bologna. Is

1502
01:09:21,960 --> 01:09:24,920
Speaker 6: that their striker Beto, who's been an incredible form all

1503
01:09:24,960 --> 01:09:28,240
Speaker 6: season long, he usually decided whoever's playing alongside him, whether

1504
01:09:28,280 --> 01:09:31,439
Speaker 6: it be Isaac's success or whoever, usually like to vacate

1505
01:09:31,479 --> 01:09:33,320
Speaker 6: the middle of the pitch when they're doing a counter attack,

1506
01:09:33,400 --> 01:09:35,920
Speaker 6: and then it allows Wallace and Roberto Pereira to just

1507
01:09:35,920 --> 01:09:37,880
Speaker 6: come up, so they just like try to overwhelm you

1508
01:09:38,320 --> 01:09:40,120
Speaker 6: in the final third. And the last time they face

1509
01:09:40,200 --> 01:09:42,960
Speaker 6: Bologna it worked. They lost the match to one, but

1510
01:09:43,000 --> 01:09:45,200
Speaker 6: they created one point nine expected goals. If you saw,

1511
01:09:45,240 --> 01:09:46,840
Speaker 6: if you know, if you go watch the highlights, the

1512
01:09:46,920 --> 01:09:49,680
Speaker 6: very first goal was a transitional goal off across and

1513
01:09:50,240 --> 01:09:52,519
Speaker 6: you uden Essa wasn't very good defensively in that match,

1514
01:09:52,560 --> 01:09:54,080
Speaker 6: but what happened is they tried to play out of

1515
01:09:54,120 --> 01:09:56,320
Speaker 6: the back way too much and they got committed a

1516
01:09:56,320 --> 01:09:58,839
Speaker 6: bunch of high turnovers, which is how Bologna scored.

1517
01:09:58,640 --> 01:09:59,360
Speaker 4: All of their goals.

1518
01:09:59,439 --> 01:10:02,240
Speaker 6: So I think we'll have a different tactical plan this time,

1519
01:10:02,240 --> 01:10:04,360
Speaker 6: probably send a lot of more balls along instead of

1520
01:10:04,400 --> 01:10:06,640
Speaker 6: trying to play out of the back. So I have

1521
01:10:06,640 --> 01:10:09,559
Speaker 6: Wouden Essay projected as a slight road favorite. They're underlying

1522
01:10:09,640 --> 01:10:12,080
Speaker 6: numbers this season overall are better than Bologna minus one

1523
01:10:12,080 --> 01:10:16,000
Speaker 6: expected gold of Froncial versus Blowna's minus six. So I

1524
01:10:16,040 --> 01:10:18,360
Speaker 6: don't think that they should be or Bologna should be

1525
01:10:18,439 --> 01:10:20,320
Speaker 6: a you know, a plus one twenty five favorite at home.

1526
01:10:20,439 --> 01:10:23,680
Speaker 6: So I like Drawno Betts at plus one.

1527
01:10:23,720 --> 01:10:25,720
Speaker 2: Thirty, Anthony anything it's here.

1528
01:10:25,760 --> 01:10:29,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I'm fading Lazio. They just had a huge

1529
01:10:29,000 --> 01:10:32,880
Speaker 3: win in the Rome derby the Derby box. Yeah, total

1530
01:10:32,960 --> 01:10:34,760
Speaker 3: luck box win. They're up to second in the table. Now,

1531
01:10:34,800 --> 01:10:38,080
Speaker 3: I mean, yes, hilarious, hilarious, hilarious sequence. But they go

1532
01:10:38,080 --> 01:10:41,120
Speaker 3: on the road to Mons as a favorite. They're marginally

1533
01:10:41,120 --> 01:10:43,679
Speaker 3: better than Manza over the course of the season. Even

1534
01:10:43,720 --> 01:10:45,960
Speaker 3: if you say, okay, we're missing something in these numbers

1535
01:10:46,040 --> 01:10:48,720
Speaker 3: and that they're just you know, Bacon, some overperformance. It's

1536
01:10:48,720 --> 01:10:50,880
Speaker 3: going to come for this team, and you say, okay,

1537
01:10:50,920 --> 01:10:53,320
Speaker 3: Mons's priors, I know, Bja Hayes them coming in the season.

1538
01:10:53,680 --> 01:10:55,519
Speaker 3: Even if you do that, it still doesn't even get

1539
01:10:55,560 --> 01:10:58,000
Speaker 3: me to this line where I have this closer to

1540
01:10:58,000 --> 01:10:59,479
Speaker 3: a coin flip. So I'm going to take the half

1541
01:10:59,520 --> 01:11:02,560
Speaker 3: a goal on Monsa at home. I also like Fiorentina

1542
01:11:02,640 --> 01:11:07,479
Speaker 3: against against Inter Milan in that matchup. Fiorentina continues to

1543
01:11:07,520 --> 01:11:10,759
Speaker 3: be a buy team for me. They are the second

1544
01:11:10,840 --> 01:11:13,839
Speaker 3: favorites to win the conference league now, so our boys

1545
01:11:14,280 --> 01:11:17,559
Speaker 3: are looking favorites honestly. Yeah, they're better than west Ham.

1546
01:11:17,720 --> 01:11:19,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, and they have an easier path.

1547
01:11:20,040 --> 01:11:22,840
Speaker 2: All right, La Lega, Anthony.

1548
01:11:21,920 --> 01:11:24,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're on the same game here, So we can

1549
01:11:24,320 --> 01:11:28,080
Speaker 3: just kind of break this down. Virial's defense since losing Emory,

1550
01:11:28,600 --> 01:11:32,320
Speaker 3: even before he left, had really started to slide considerably,

1551
01:11:32,960 --> 01:11:38,000
Speaker 3: and they do have major holes there defensively, and I

1552
01:11:38,040 --> 01:11:40,880
Speaker 3: think Sociadad is right to exploit them. The market, I

1553
01:11:40,880 --> 01:11:42,960
Speaker 3: think has been wrong on this Virial defense for the

1554
01:11:42,960 --> 01:11:44,760
Speaker 3: better part of three or four months. So I'm gonna

1555
01:11:44,760 --> 01:11:46,320
Speaker 3: take both teams to score, and I'm gonna take a

1556
01:11:46,360 --> 01:11:49,280
Speaker 3: little sprinkle on some plus one fifty for Socia Dodd

1557
01:11:49,280 --> 01:11:52,040
Speaker 3: to score in the first half in the matchup.

1558
01:11:52,439 --> 01:11:55,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, I agree, I'm gonna be on sociate adronovettat plus

1559
01:11:55,120 --> 01:11:58,640
Speaker 6: one twenty so Ever, since KYK Cintienne took over on

1560
01:11:58,680 --> 01:12:04,280
Speaker 6: October twenty six, Virial has been perfectly average plus point

1561
01:12:04,400 --> 01:12:07,240
Speaker 6: one five non penalty expected gold deferential over that exact

1562
01:12:07,240 --> 01:12:11,120
Speaker 6: same time period, Sociodod's been plus eight point six. And

1563
01:12:11,160 --> 01:12:13,000
Speaker 6: this is the same Virial team that just got knocked

1564
01:12:13,040 --> 01:12:15,000
Speaker 6: out of the Conference Lege by a very very average

1565
01:12:15,000 --> 01:12:18,120
Speaker 6: onder l side from Belgium. Same side it's lost three

1566
01:12:18,160 --> 01:12:20,240
Speaker 6: one to LJA, concealed over three expected goals to the

1567
01:12:20,280 --> 01:12:22,800
Speaker 6: worst team in Spain and throughout Europe. Same team that

1568
01:12:22,880 --> 01:12:25,160
Speaker 6: lost four two to Majorca. And the problem that exists

1569
01:12:25,200 --> 01:12:28,280
Speaker 6: under Setim, which is a massive problem in this match

1570
01:12:28,320 --> 01:12:31,800
Speaker 6: is vi Real painfully like wants to play out of

1571
01:12:31,800 --> 01:12:33,880
Speaker 6: the back, wants to build out of the back, which

1572
01:12:33,880 --> 01:12:36,360
Speaker 6: there's nothing wrong with trying to do that, but they're

1573
01:12:36,400 --> 01:12:38,880
Speaker 6: going up against a team that I like to call

1574
01:12:38,960 --> 01:12:42,800
Speaker 6: the Newcastle of La Liga. Sociatedad loves to set these

1575
01:12:42,800 --> 01:12:45,439
Speaker 6: pressing traps, loves to press high. If you look through

1576
01:12:45,439 --> 01:12:47,320
Speaker 6: all their pressing numbers, they're number one in Spain and

1577
01:12:47,360 --> 01:12:51,000
Speaker 6: pass per defensive action second and high turnovers. Virial since

1578
01:12:51,040 --> 01:12:54,519
Speaker 6: sentient took over as an offensive pass per defensive action

1579
01:12:54,560 --> 01:12:58,840
Speaker 6: of around eleven, which is close to average in La Liga.

1580
01:12:59,720 --> 01:13:02,360
Speaker 6: But so you know, I think they're going to struggle

1581
01:13:02,360 --> 01:13:05,040
Speaker 6: a little bit playing through pressure. Sociated Ad, though, is

1582
01:13:05,040 --> 01:13:07,200
Speaker 6: an incredible defensive team. They're allowing point eight to one

1583
01:13:07,240 --> 01:13:09,639
Speaker 6: non penalty expecta goles per ninety, their third and big

1584
01:13:09,640 --> 01:13:12,599
Speaker 6: scoring chances allowed, their top five and disrupting opponents built

1585
01:13:12,680 --> 01:13:15,599
Speaker 6: up play, and their second and expected threat allowed. They've

1586
01:13:15,640 --> 01:13:18,280
Speaker 6: also been the best defense away from home in law

1587
01:13:18,360 --> 01:13:20,280
Speaker 6: League of the season, only ten point eight expected goals

1588
01:13:20,560 --> 01:13:23,560
Speaker 6: in thirteen matches, and Anthony mentioned Viriel's defensive problems, I

1589
01:13:23,560 --> 01:13:25,840
Speaker 6: mean their eleventh to non penalty expected goals this season.

1590
01:13:26,280 --> 01:13:29,080
Speaker 6: And the problem for them is is once the opponent

1591
01:13:29,320 --> 01:13:31,439
Speaker 6: enters the final third, it usually ends up in penalty

1592
01:13:31,439 --> 01:13:34,360
Speaker 6: box entry because they're near the bottom in final third

1593
01:13:34,360 --> 01:13:37,240
Speaker 6: to penalty box entry conversion rate. But the last time

1594
01:13:37,240 --> 01:13:39,759
Speaker 6: these teams met I mean, granted it was under Unyamor,

1595
01:13:40,240 --> 01:13:43,160
Speaker 6: I mean Sociatedad did an incredible job of controlling the match.

1596
01:13:43,160 --> 01:13:45,719
Speaker 6: They won the match one nothing, they held sixty percent

1597
01:13:45,760 --> 01:13:49,599
Speaker 6: possession and they outshot Viial seventeen to five with winning

1598
01:13:49,640 --> 01:13:51,559
Speaker 6: the expected goals one point two to point two. So

1599
01:13:52,000 --> 01:13:54,080
Speaker 6: I actually have sociate Todd projected as a slight road

1600
01:13:54,120 --> 01:13:56,760
Speaker 6: favorite at Viril. I don't understand why there there's no

1601
01:13:56,760 --> 01:13:59,320
Speaker 6: real injury concerns here for sociated ad, so I don't

1602
01:13:59,360 --> 01:14:01,640
Speaker 6: understand why the underdog. So I'm with Anthony. I like

1603
01:14:01,800 --> 01:14:03,679
Speaker 6: associate Addrono bet at plus one twenty.

1604
01:14:04,439 --> 01:14:08,599
Speaker 2: All right, BJ, you are the alone ranger in league

1605
01:14:09,120 --> 01:14:09,400
Speaker 2: for US.

1606
01:14:09,439 --> 01:14:13,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, I know, shocking. I like over three goals in

1607
01:14:13,040 --> 01:14:15,439
Speaker 6: Strasbourg Monico. You know, Strasbourg is one of the highest

1608
01:14:15,439 --> 01:14:18,040
Speaker 6: event style teams in France. Their averages their matches average

1609
01:14:18,040 --> 01:14:20,519
Speaker 6: around two point nine expected goals, but their defense has

1610
01:14:20,560 --> 01:14:22,880
Speaker 6: been really, really bad this season. They're close to the

1611
01:14:22,880 --> 01:14:24,519
Speaker 6: bottom and the league and it's the reason why they're

1612
01:14:24,520 --> 01:14:27,599
Speaker 6: in the relegation fight. They can't defense that pieces. They're

1613
01:14:27,720 --> 01:14:29,679
Speaker 6: very give up way too any big scoring chances, which

1614
01:14:29,720 --> 01:14:32,000
Speaker 6: is not what you can do against Monaco, who has

1615
01:14:32,040 --> 01:14:34,599
Speaker 6: been one of the best offensive teams in France since

1616
01:14:34,720 --> 01:14:36,519
Speaker 6: coming back from the World Cup break, averaging one point

1617
01:14:36,560 --> 01:14:37,360
Speaker 6: nine expected goals.

1618
01:14:37,400 --> 01:14:39,400
Speaker 4: So I have three. I have a little over.

1619
01:14:39,840 --> 01:14:42,000
Speaker 6: I have three point two expected goals created for this

1620
01:14:42,040 --> 01:14:44,599
Speaker 6: one are projected for this one. So over three goals

1621
01:14:44,640 --> 01:14:46,120
Speaker 6: a plus one twenty is good enough price for me.

1622
01:14:46,680 --> 01:14:51,360
Speaker 3: Strasbourg three wins in their last six, they return the corner.

1623
01:14:51,520 --> 01:14:52,960
Speaker 3: It just took um till April.

1624
01:14:53,360 --> 01:14:55,800
Speaker 4: Don't rip up those top three tickets just yet.

1625
01:14:57,080 --> 01:15:02,280
Speaker 2: They're still alive. Now time for our underdog part three legs.

1626
01:15:02,800 --> 01:15:06,960
Speaker 2: We will end up with a sixty six to one parlay.

1627
01:15:07,040 --> 01:15:08,840
Speaker 2: At the end of it, beach one of.

1628
01:15:08,840 --> 01:15:09,559
Speaker 5: Our shorter ones.

1629
01:15:09,680 --> 01:15:13,439
Speaker 2: I know it's not I got a little upset when.

1630
01:15:14,439 --> 01:15:16,320
Speaker 3: You're in charge of getting the long long shot.

1631
01:15:17,360 --> 01:15:21,240
Speaker 2: I thought that there was no way that I was

1632
01:15:21,280 --> 01:15:24,479
Speaker 2: going to get to the one that I picked because

1633
01:15:24,600 --> 01:15:26,559
Speaker 2: I was the last one on the sheet. But as

1634
01:15:26,560 --> 01:15:28,800
Speaker 2: I said before during the show, you guys weren't on it,

1635
01:15:28,880 --> 01:15:32,040
Speaker 2: which astounded me. And it is a decent price, So

1636
01:15:32,400 --> 01:15:35,519
Speaker 2: I mean it's the highest of the three. Uh, you

1637
01:15:35,520 --> 01:15:36,120
Speaker 2: could go first.

1638
01:15:36,479 --> 01:15:38,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Eric Unalda signed and

1639
01:15:38,800 --> 01:15:41,719
Speaker 3: approved Stuttgart three to one on the road to ugnon

1640
01:15:42,120 --> 01:15:45,400
Speaker 3: UN's attack is so poor coming from behind. They've played

1641
01:15:45,400 --> 01:15:47,800
Speaker 3: a lot of goalless draws of late. Uh. They are

1642
01:15:47,840 --> 01:15:51,200
Speaker 3: a team that plays a style that leads them prone

1643
01:15:51,240 --> 01:15:53,439
Speaker 3: to get upset and playing a lot of draws as

1644
01:15:53,439 --> 01:15:55,040
Speaker 3: a favorite. So at three to one, I'm going to

1645
01:15:55,120 --> 01:15:58,519
Speaker 3: take stute Gart and bank on some positive aggression for

1646
01:15:58,560 --> 01:16:02,080
Speaker 3: this team, which is an average Bundesliga team and by

1647
01:16:02,120 --> 01:16:06,040
Speaker 3: every metric, but it's sitting in eighteenth place, dead last.

1648
01:16:06,280 --> 01:16:10,080
Speaker 2: I'm going with Brentford. They're taking on Brighton, two really

1649
01:16:10,120 --> 01:16:12,759
Speaker 2: solid teams, both with forty two points on the season.

1650
01:16:13,080 --> 01:16:16,160
Speaker 2: Brighton has done it in two fewer games, though I

1651
01:16:16,160 --> 01:16:18,759
Speaker 2: think you could definitely make the argument and feel fine

1652
01:16:18,920 --> 01:16:21,280
Speaker 2: in it that Brighton is the better of the two teams.

1653
01:16:21,320 --> 01:16:24,600
Speaker 2: But what have we learned about this Brentford team in

1654
01:16:24,680 --> 01:16:27,840
Speaker 2: their almost two years in the Premier League. They are

1655
01:16:28,560 --> 01:16:33,360
Speaker 2: an incredibly effective underdog and this price is ridiculous. Their

1656
01:16:33,360 --> 01:16:37,320
Speaker 2: plus four to twenty five to beat Brighton on the road,

1657
01:16:38,160 --> 01:16:40,439
Speaker 2: and when you look at the last couple months here

1658
01:16:40,479 --> 01:16:43,960
Speaker 2: since the World Cup, the numbers are relatively similar. Both

1659
01:16:44,000 --> 01:16:47,519
Speaker 2: teams are sitting in the top five in the Premier

1660
01:16:47,560 --> 01:16:51,120
Speaker 2: League table since the World Cup break, both having a

1661
01:16:51,120 --> 01:16:53,800
Speaker 2: plus eleven goal differential. Brighton has done it in one

1662
01:16:53,840 --> 01:16:57,439
Speaker 2: fewer game, and the expected goals numbers paint both teams

1663
01:16:58,120 --> 01:17:00,439
Speaker 2: really kindly and they're both around. You know, twenty one

1664
01:17:00,479 --> 01:17:03,120
Speaker 2: expected points was again Brighton doing it in one less game,

1665
01:17:03,120 --> 01:17:04,880
Speaker 2: So it's not like the difference between these two teams

1666
01:17:04,920 --> 01:17:07,680
Speaker 2: is that stark. And as we said off the top

1667
01:17:07,720 --> 01:17:10,679
Speaker 2: of the show, if you threw aston Villa at this number,

1668
01:17:10,680 --> 01:17:12,320
Speaker 2: I think it would make sense. But Brentford's a much

1669
01:17:12,360 --> 01:17:15,679
Speaker 2: better team than that. Plus four twenty five. You should

1670
01:17:15,720 --> 01:17:17,960
Speaker 2: just never look away from this number, this kind of

1671
01:17:18,000 --> 01:17:19,960
Speaker 2: number on this kind of team when they're not playing

1672
01:17:20,400 --> 01:17:22,160
Speaker 2: Arsenal or City BJ.

1673
01:17:22,800 --> 01:17:25,720
Speaker 6: What do you have sociate dad plus two twenty on

1674
01:17:25,760 --> 01:17:27,280
Speaker 6: the road of Vireal just talked about in a lot

1675
01:17:27,320 --> 01:17:28,960
Speaker 6: of league section. Don't need to talk for five more

1676
01:17:29,000 --> 01:17:31,240
Speaker 6: minutes about it, but just a really really good matchup

1677
01:17:31,400 --> 01:17:34,360
Speaker 6: here for a Virial team that wants to play out

1678
01:17:34,360 --> 01:17:35,960
Speaker 6: of the back associate AD team which is the best

1679
01:17:36,000 --> 01:17:39,200
Speaker 6: pressing team in La Liga and has way a better

1680
01:17:39,280 --> 01:17:42,559
Speaker 6: n our lying numbers since Key K Santian took over

1681
01:17:42,680 --> 01:17:43,679
Speaker 6: for Vireal.

1682
01:17:43,800 --> 01:17:46,439
Speaker 4: So sociate Dad plus two twenty is an insane price

1683
01:17:46,479 --> 01:17:46,680
Speaker 4: to me.

1684
01:17:47,680 --> 01:17:50,040
Speaker 2: Like I said, sixty six to one, should all three

1685
01:17:50,120 --> 01:17:53,960
Speaker 2: of those underdogs win, I think that they will now

1686
01:17:53,960 --> 01:17:57,240
Speaker 2: on to our best bets for the upcoming Premier League Week.

1687
01:17:57,479 --> 01:17:58,519
Speaker 2: We can go right back to you.

1688
01:17:58,520 --> 01:18:02,360
Speaker 6: BJ Newcastle John Obett at minus one thirty at home

1689
01:18:02,400 --> 01:18:05,720
Speaker 6: against Manchester United. Passamiro is going to be out for

1690
01:18:05,800 --> 01:18:08,920
Speaker 6: Manchester United, which is a massive, massive loss for them.

1691
01:18:08,920 --> 01:18:11,280
Speaker 6: With him in the lineup this season, they're only allowing

1692
01:18:11,320 --> 01:18:14,120
Speaker 6: one point one to one expect goals for ninety. Without

1693
01:18:14,200 --> 01:18:16,519
Speaker 6: him in the lineup, they're allowing one point six to

1694
01:18:16,560 --> 01:18:18,759
Speaker 6: eight expect goals for ninety. This is obviously a rematch

1695
01:18:18,800 --> 01:18:20,720
Speaker 6: of the League Cup Final a couple months ago where

1696
01:18:20,920 --> 01:18:23,640
Speaker 6: Manchester United won two nothing, but if you look a

1697
01:18:23,680 --> 01:18:26,920
Speaker 6: lot of the underlying numbers from that match, United and

1698
01:18:27,120 --> 01:18:31,519
Speaker 6: Newcastle had an expected goals battle. Basically even Newcastle tilted

1699
01:18:31,520 --> 01:18:33,720
Speaker 6: the field on United about sixty five percent, controlled a

1700
01:18:33,760 --> 01:18:36,040
Speaker 6: lot of possession and United didn't really try to play

1701
01:18:36,080 --> 01:18:37,439
Speaker 6: out of the back. They sent a ton of long

1702
01:18:37,479 --> 01:18:39,960
Speaker 6: balls forward in the Newcastle's final third of the pitch

1703
01:18:40,040 --> 01:18:41,800
Speaker 6: and basically turned it into a very end to end

1704
01:18:41,840 --> 01:18:43,880
Speaker 6: transitional type match. But I think is going to actually

1705
01:18:43,880 --> 01:18:47,320
Speaker 6: benefit Newcastle in this one. If you look through Newcastle's numbers,

1706
01:18:47,360 --> 01:18:49,680
Speaker 6: they only have forty one build up attacks compared to

1707
01:18:49,720 --> 01:18:52,200
Speaker 6: fifty four direct attacks. So even though they're near the top.

1708
01:18:52,680 --> 01:18:54,840
Speaker 6: Even though they're near the top four, they're not your

1709
01:18:54,880 --> 01:18:57,320
Speaker 6: typical top four possession based type team. They're much better

1710
01:18:57,320 --> 01:18:59,800
Speaker 6: when they can get the match, very transitional, so I

1711
01:19:00,040 --> 01:19:02,080
Speaker 6: think that benefits them. They're also one of the better

1712
01:19:02,120 --> 01:19:04,559
Speaker 6: team home teams in the Premier League plus thirteen expected

1713
01:19:04,560 --> 01:19:07,439
Speaker 6: goldfferential this season, while United is a minus six point

1714
01:19:07,520 --> 01:19:09,880
Speaker 6: six expected gold differential away from home against the top

1715
01:19:09,880 --> 01:19:10,800
Speaker 6: half of the Premier League.

1716
01:19:10,800 --> 01:19:13,160
Speaker 4: So I like Newcastle Toronto bad at minus one thirty.

1717
01:19:13,880 --> 01:19:18,400
Speaker 2: I'll take Donagam Force. They are a home underdog against

1718
01:19:18,600 --> 01:19:21,439
Speaker 2: Wolverhampton around plus two hundred. I like them on the

1719
01:19:21,439 --> 01:19:24,360
Speaker 2: money line. You look at these two teams. The records

1720
01:19:24,560 --> 01:19:28,799
Speaker 2: may tell you something differently, but they are basically equals,

1721
01:19:29,160 --> 01:19:31,320
Speaker 2: and you can then say, all right, Wolves is a

1722
01:19:31,320 --> 01:19:32,920
Speaker 2: little bit better, but this one will be played at

1723
01:19:32,960 --> 01:19:36,200
Speaker 2: the city Ground. Since the World Cup, Wolverhampton has five wins,

1724
01:19:36,360 --> 01:19:39,559
Speaker 2: two draws, six losses, a minus three goal differential, but

1725
01:19:40,000 --> 01:19:43,559
Speaker 2: they're expected gold differentials around minus eight and by expected

1726
01:19:43,600 --> 01:19:48,400
Speaker 2: points they should be marginally better than what Ningham Forcet

1727
01:19:48,439 --> 01:19:50,720
Speaker 2: has done since the World Cup, which is a three,

1728
01:19:50,760 --> 01:19:52,600
Speaker 2: four and five winter all loss with a minus eight

1729
01:19:52,680 --> 01:19:57,760
Speaker 2: goal differential. Their expected gold differential is just under minus ten,

1730
01:19:57,880 --> 01:20:01,599
Speaker 2: so there's really very little difference between these two sides.

1731
01:20:01,640 --> 01:20:03,599
Speaker 2: Are getting forced at home where they play a lot better,

1732
01:20:03,960 --> 01:20:07,479
Speaker 2: and it's bj noted before Wolves struggle to get any

1733
01:20:07,720 --> 01:20:10,320
Speaker 2: damage done on the road. So I'll take Force as

1734
01:20:10,360 --> 01:20:13,000
Speaker 2: a home dog, Anthony, you can take us home.

1735
01:20:13,680 --> 01:20:16,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, Arsenal and leads both teams to score anything minus

1736
01:20:16,520 --> 01:20:18,320
Speaker 3: one to ten or better is good for me there.

1737
01:20:19,000 --> 01:20:22,200
Speaker 3: I've continued to have this Arsenal defense priced worse than

1738
01:20:22,200 --> 01:20:24,880
Speaker 3: the market for about a month or two. Now we've

1739
01:20:24,920 --> 01:20:26,880
Speaker 3: cast some good tickets going against their defense, and I

1740
01:20:26,880 --> 01:20:28,479
Speaker 3: think you can be able to continue to do that

1741
01:20:28,760 --> 01:20:30,920
Speaker 3: against a Leeds team that's pretty disruptive and does a

1742
01:20:30,920 --> 01:20:34,680
Speaker 3: good job of limiting opponents settled possession, which is a

1743
01:20:34,680 --> 01:20:38,400
Speaker 3: major key against Arsenal. Arsenal will be without Saliba and Tomiyasu,

1744
01:20:38,840 --> 01:20:42,800
Speaker 3: two key players in their ball progression. Leads created over

1745
01:20:42,960 --> 01:20:44,800
Speaker 3: one and a half expected goals in the first meeting

1746
01:20:44,800 --> 01:20:46,960
Speaker 3: between these two teams. They continue to be due for

1747
01:20:47,000 --> 01:20:50,679
Speaker 3: more positive attacking regression and their underlying process numbers suggest

1748
01:20:50,720 --> 01:20:52,960
Speaker 3: there you could argue it above average, but if at

1749
01:20:53,000 --> 01:20:56,479
Speaker 3: worst average attack, so leads have their defensive issues. Arsenal

1750
01:20:56,560 --> 01:20:59,080
Speaker 3: should score. Jay Zus is back, but I think leads

1751
01:20:59,080 --> 01:21:00,679
Speaker 3: get on the board as well. I'll take both teams

1752
01:21:00,680 --> 01:21:00,960
Speaker 3: to score.

1753
01:21:01,080 --> 01:21:04,880
Speaker 2: Yes, there you have another episode of Wonder Goals in

1754
01:21:04,920 --> 01:21:08,360
Speaker 2: the books. We thank our sponsors BET three six'. Five

1755
01:21:08,880 --> 01:21:10,720
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Speaker 2: Ohio and FOR Bj cunningham And Anthony, Dubundo I'm Michael

1758
01:21:17,720 --> 01:21:20,519
Speaker 2: leeboff saying we will see you again On monday morning

1759
01:21:21,120 --> 01:21:24,639
Speaker 2: as we preview a slew of Midweek Premier league. Match

1760
01:21:24,680 --> 01:21:28,920
Speaker 2: it's been a while since we've had. That so Excited, ANTHONY,

1761
01:21:28,920 --> 01:21:30,920
Speaker 2: bj thank, you thank you for. Listening good luck with

1762
01:21:30,960 --> 01:21:31,240
Speaker 2: all your.

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01:21:31,280 --> 01:21:42,759
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