Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at
Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay, and then roud Otto with the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,
Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: We turned to the aforementioned Bloomberg News Morning Consult Swing
Speaker 2: State poll, in which voters in the Swing States, the
Speaker 2: seven swing states that will decide this election, We're asked
Speaker 2: about things like interest rates. Who do you trust more
Speaker 2: to handle interest rates? Look at this Donald Trump forty
Speaker 2: six percent, Kamala Harris thirty nine percent. Who do you
Speaker 2: trust more to cost? To handle the cost of everyday goods?
Speaker 2: Donald Trump forty seven, Kamala Harris forty two. Taxes Trump
Speaker 2: forty seven, Harris forty two. But when you pull out
Speaker 2: from the economic issues and you look at the top
Speaker 2: line numbers, this has been a remarkable, if not seismic
Speaker 2: shift in American politics. In just the better part of
Speaker 2: a week since Joe Biden dropped out, Kamala Harris rose
Speaker 2: to the top of the ticket. She is now in
Speaker 2: a statistical tie with Donald Trump. Pleasure to bring in
Speaker 2: Eli Yoakley. We do this every month when the big
Speaker 2: pole drops US politics analyst that morning, consult our partners
Speaker 2: on this poll. Eli, have you ever seen a turn
Speaker 2: like this? I'll get into the States, especially Michigan with
Speaker 2: you in a second, but just overall, to erase a
Speaker 2: gap like that is pretty remarkable in just seven or
Speaker 2: eight days.
Speaker 3: Have I ever saw it? I saw it this week.
Speaker 3: Let's go. What a time to be alive. But no, look,
Speaker 3: it's truly remarkable. Clearly, this is a reset moment in
Speaker 3: the campaign. I mean, we've been talking month after month.
Speaker 3: This is our I think tenth wave now and the
Speaker 3: race kind of static, and between trump assassination, Joe Biden
Speaker 3: dropping out, and Kamala Harris's rise pretty seismic a few weeks.
Speaker 3: I think the American electorate is paying attention now.
Speaker 2: The American electorate is paying attention. And if the election
Speaker 2: were held today, pretty hard to say where this would go.
Speaker 2: But when we drill down on the States, we learn
Speaker 2: a lot.
Speaker 4: Eli.
Speaker 2: Pennsylvania remains Donald Trump's to lose, according to what I'm
Speaker 2: seeing here fifty percent to Harris's forty six. But she's
Speaker 2: closed the gap and is in fact leading Donald Trump
Speaker 2: in both Michigan and Wisconsin. This Michigan number jumps off
Speaker 2: the page plus eleven. Could we look back on this
Speaker 2: as an outlier? How do you explain that, Eli, It's possible.
Speaker 3: I mean, all these figures could be outliers when we
Speaker 3: look back in a few months. What we're noticing, and
Speaker 3: I think Michigan is a good example of this, is
Speaker 3: the fact that Democrats and voters of color, young people
Speaker 3: are starting to come in line to how you typically
Speaker 3: expect them to perform. Kamala Harris is performing me so
Speaker 3: much better among Biden's twenty twenty voters than he is.
Speaker 3: She's a parody with Donald Trump been the swing state aggregate.
Speaker 3: That had been his big advantage across the swing state
Speaker 3: map was getting those folks who voted for him back
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty say they're going to vote for him again.
Speaker 3: That advantage seems to have been a race. Now. Look
Speaker 3: not to pour cold water on anything here, but if
Speaker 3: we look at the leads that Kamala Harris has today
Speaker 3: and say she wins all of these, it doesn't make
Speaker 3: her president. You know. Having having Georgia tied, for example,
Speaker 3: could be the decisive state at some point. We'll have
Speaker 3: to watch what happens in the coming weeks. I mean,
Speaker 3: this is this happened just as her campaign launched, and
Speaker 3: so this is an early moment in the campaign to
Speaker 3: get a gauge of where your voters are with her.
Speaker 3: But at this early stage, before the hits have come
Speaker 3: against her, she looks to be in a much better
Speaker 3: position at winning the White House.
Speaker 4: Joe Biden was well.
Speaker 2: Just to put a finer point on that, eli is
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris ahead now of where Joe Biden was before
Speaker 2: the debate.
Speaker 3: She is, especially when you look at the national numbers.
Speaker 3: I mean, it was a pretty close race. We do
Speaker 3: daily tracking every single day, and we did not see
Speaker 3: much movement. Joe Biden was under Trump by one or
Speaker 3: two or three points, depending on the day. Every survey
Speaker 3: we've gotten back in the last few days since Kamala
Speaker 3: Harris became the presumptive nominee has had her up on
Speaker 3: Donald Trump. Clearly, that is that is a shift in
Speaker 3: the political environment in the Democratic Party's favor. And then
Speaker 3: after the debate, I mean, Joe Biden was just not
Speaker 3: in a position where he could be really competitive probably
Speaker 3: as the race stood, but you know, now, it's still early.
Speaker 3: The Democratic National Convention is going to be a big
Speaker 3: defining moment for Kamala Harris. I remember watching our tracking
Speaker 3: of the twenty twenty contest, and what Sephanie Cutter and
Speaker 3: the Democratic National Committee Convention did for Joe Biden was
Speaker 3: boost his favorability and strengthen the kind of views people
Speaker 3: had of him. People don't pay as much attention to
Speaker 3: vice presidents as we do here in Washington. I mean,
Speaker 3: even Kamala Harris's numbers were pretty soft. A lot of
Speaker 3: people had somewhat favorable or somewhat unfavorable views of her.
Speaker 3: We're starting to see that shift as she gets the
Speaker 3: spotlight the coming weeks, as the Trump campaign rolls out
Speaker 3: some negative ads and she gets out her positive ones well. Plus,
Speaker 3: the Democratic Convention is going to see how she's able
Speaker 3: to stand up some of the scrutiny.
Speaker 2: I think you asked voters Eli about some of the
Speaker 2: candidates on the shortlist for running mate. Is it worth
Speaker 2: talking about that Each state's going to feel differently about
Speaker 2: their own favorite son or daughter. Did we learn anything
Speaker 2: that equals a trend?
Speaker 3: I think that the numbers are pretty intuitive if you're
Speaker 3: in Arizona, you like Mark Kelly. If you're in Pennsylvania,
Speaker 3: you like Josh Europe. On the national level, it kind
Speaker 3: of also makes since Pete Pittage is the most well
Speaker 3: known and well liked figure that has been on various
Speaker 3: short lists. He's followed by Josh Shapiro. And if you're
Speaker 3: thinking about Pennsylvania, you're thinking about a place where both
Speaker 3: Joe Biden and now Kamala Harris are not yet leading
Speaker 3: Donald Trump. You can see how a popular governor who
Speaker 3: can give quite a speech that makes a lot of
Speaker 3: people think about former President Barack Obama every once in
Speaker 3: a while, you can see that being a helpful person
Speaker 3: to have on the ticket. But what is going to
Speaker 3: have to happen with the vice presidential nominee is just
Speaker 3: a severe attack dog. I mean, the campaign via Morning
Speaker 3: Joe and the other shows that the Democratic possible contenders
Speaker 3: have been waging has been pretty fascinating to why it's
Speaker 3: been which which governor, which Democratic governor can out attack
Speaker 3: Donald Trump and JD. Vance. Advance has become a creative
Speaker 3: target for some of these folks with some of the
Speaker 3: some of the interesting developments we've learned about his history.
Speaker 3: But I think the vice presidential contender probably matters not
Speaker 3: as much as that top of the ticket figure, Kamala Harris.
Speaker 3: She really seems to be getting Democratic voters in mind.
Speaker 2: I'm sure it's not even close, to be honest, but
Speaker 2: you're right, Pennsylvania is not lost on us in the
Speaker 2: fact that she has an announcement on a running mate.
Speaker 2: I believe scheduled or at least the first stop is
Speaker 2: going to be in Philadelphia next week to start this
Speaker 2: road trip with the running mate. I don't know. Just
Speaker 2: something to consider. By the way, if you didn't see
Speaker 2: the video of Governor Shapiro playing basketball with those young
Speaker 2: kids yesterday, pretty strong optics. ELI talk to me about
Speaker 2: motivation here, activating the base. More than a third of
Speaker 2: voters in the seven states here say they are much
Speaker 2: more likely to vote in a Trump Harris contest than
Speaker 2: a Trump Biden one.
Speaker 4: What does that tell us?
Speaker 3: I think the most interesting figures there are the people
Speaker 3: most impacted this have been Black voters. You know, that's
Speaker 3: such a core key constituency for Democrats to be able
Speaker 3: to win elections. Having black voters more fired up this
Speaker 3: time around is only a positive step. I think the
Speaker 3: most important thing though, is these young voters. I mean,
Speaker 3: gen Z is up there on the same level as
Speaker 3: black voters in terms of new enthusiasm. I mean, that's
Speaker 3: one of the things that made the Michigan numbers stand
Speaker 3: out so much, was Kamala Harris reverse the democrats poorer
Speaker 3: performance among the youngest voters in the elector. We saw
Speaker 3: that across the larger Swing State map. Two. Getting young
Speaker 3: people excited is how Democrats win presidential elections. It's one
Speaker 3: of the most important groups to get fired up to
Speaker 3: come out to the polls, and so I think a
Speaker 3: shift at the top of the ticket, plus a more
Speaker 3: compelling figure for young people, it's going to do a
Speaker 3: lot of work to help motivate those voters and put
Speaker 3: Donald Trump on the defense for the first time in
Speaker 3: a while in this campaign.
Speaker 2: Eli, really great to have you back, Eli Yokley, us
Speaker 2: politics analysts that morning consult our partners throughout this campaign
Speaker 2: on our monthly Bloomberg News Morning Consult Swing State Pole.
Speaker 4: Fascinating stuff, you'l.
Speaker 2: I think you as always for the insights and the
Speaker 2: great analysis. The other question that we didn't have chance
Speaker 2: to discuss had to do with violence political violence around
Speaker 2: the election It's something that we've been asking voters about
Speaker 2: months a month.
Speaker 4: In this case, how did we ask it?
Speaker 2: How much do you trust the election and its aftermath
Speaker 2: will be free from violence? Only sixteen percent said a lot,
Speaker 2: Thirty four percent said some. We'll keep tabs on that
Speaker 2: as we get our way through Chicago and get closer
Speaker 2: to November. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. Thanks for coming along.
Speaker 2: The fastest show in politics, will turn our attention to
Speaker 2: Israel and Iran. Coming up next on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the bloom Balance of Power podcast kens
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on applecar Play and
Speaker 1: then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can
Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New
Speaker 1: York station, Just Say Alexa Play.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg eleven thirty says it all here on the terminal
Speaker 2: in a single story, strikes on Israel's enemies in Tehran
Speaker 2: and Beirut raised tensions with Israel demonstrating its willingness to
Speaker 2: risk retaliation after the targeting within just a few hours
Speaker 2: of senior Hamas and hesbel A leaders abroad raising the
Speaker 2: prospects here of regional conflict.
Speaker 4: So it happened again around this time.
Speaker 2: Yesterday we were talking about the response, the retaliation against
Speaker 2: the Hamas Hesbelah bombing, rather of the children and teenagers
Speaker 2: on the soccer field. Now we're talking about a strike
Speaker 2: not on the Beirut suburbs, but in Tehran itself. The
Speaker 2: leader of Hamas, the political leader is my well, Hanya
Speaker 2: assassinated in the early hours of the morning in Iran,
Speaker 2: according to Hamas. And we need to be clear, while
Speaker 2: this is being referred to as in Israeli airstrike, the
Speaker 2: IDF has not in fact confirmed that it was their doing.
Speaker 2: And that's where we start our conversation with Holly Dagris.
Speaker 2: We had to go to an expert on this editor
Speaker 2: of the menta source in Iran, source, senior fellow in
Speaker 2: the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council. Holly, it's
Speaker 2: good to see you. Thank you for coming back. Should
Speaker 2: we assume this is Israel.
Speaker 5: Well, I would say that Mussad's been treating Iran like
Speaker 5: it's playground for many years now. They've played a role
Speaker 5: in sabotage on Iran's nuclear facilities, defense facilities, the assassination
Speaker 5: of top nuclear scientists, and even this stealing of sensitive
Speaker 5: nuclear files. So I think a lot of folks are
Speaker 5: pointing their fingers at Israel given that contact.
Speaker 4: Pretty bold to strike in Tehran itself.
Speaker 5: Well, not just that, the same day that was the
Speaker 5: inauguration of the country's new in a massive possession with
Speaker 5: one hundred and ten foreign delegations in the country.
Speaker 2: So there's now worry about the response to the response.
Speaker 4: What's about to happen.
Speaker 5: Well, we've heard publicly from the Supreme Leader himself, Ayetela
Speaker 5: ade Kamine has actually said that he vows revenge. We've
Speaker 5: also seen that the United Nations Iranian Permanent Mission to
Speaker 5: the United Nations has publicly said that they're going to
Speaker 5: engage in special operations, which I would say is a
Speaker 5: signaling to the Western Israel that they're not going to
Speaker 5: be directly responding like the way we saw in April
Speaker 5: where Iran fired three hundred ballistic missiles drones at Israel directly.
Speaker 5: But it sounds like they're going to respond. It's just
Speaker 5: a matter of when and how.
Speaker 2: And striking against an individual that's becomes a tip for tap.
Speaker 5: It would seem very likely because they do see this
Speaker 5: as an eye for an eye and the fact that
Speaker 5: they didn't cite the UN Charter, which is what they
Speaker 5: did last time, which was they used international law to
Speaker 5: make their case, tells me that this is going to
Speaker 5: be a different kind of response than what we saw
Speaker 5: in April.
Speaker 2: Yeah, to your point, Iran Supreme Leader responding to say
Speaker 2: that Iran considers revenge as its duty written on his
Speaker 2: official website, how do you read into.
Speaker 5: That, Well, the talk of revenge is very common with
Speaker 5: the Supreme Leader in these contexts. He also vowed revenge
Speaker 5: when the IRGC commander was taken out in Damascus at
Speaker 5: the Iranian embassy compound in Syria that prompted the big
Speaker 5: tip for tat we saw in April. He's also said
Speaker 5: that in the context of Rodesfors, commander lost some solar money.
Speaker 5: So there's this sense that they have to respond or
Speaker 5: else there's going to be seen as a sign of weakness.
Speaker 4: Benjaminina who can relate with that?
Speaker 2: I started by referring to the risk that he's willing
Speaker 2: to take here in this case. What is going on
Speaker 2: inside the inner circle that surrounds Benjamininya.
Speaker 5: Well, we're nearly ten months into the Gaza war that
Speaker 5: was prompted by Hamas's terrorist attack on Israel and October seventh,
Speaker 5: and while these have been ongoing, the key point of
Speaker 5: Natanyahu's strategy was to take out Hamas, and we've seen
Speaker 5: that not just Henia the political chief, was taken out,
Speaker 5: but reportedly Muhammad Dave, one of the key military commanders
Speaker 5: in Hamas. So in some ways this is at least
Speaker 5: giving the appearance that they're actually making good on that
Speaker 5: commentary that they're going to take out Hamas, not the
Speaker 5: ideology itself, but it's leadership.
Speaker 4: Well, so what do you make of this prospect?
Speaker 6: Or?
Speaker 2: We keep hearing about worries about a wider war, that
Speaker 2: this could become a regional conflict that could even draw
Speaker 2: Iran and the US into it. But a lot of
Speaker 2: the smart analysis I've heard is that every party is
Speaker 2: trying to avoid that. It doesn't help Hamas, it doesn't
Speaker 2: help Hazbolan, it doesn't help.
Speaker 5: Israel absolutely, I know, like looking from the outside in,
Speaker 5: it's like, well, how is this not going to all
Speaker 5: these different tit for tached strikes in various shapes and forms.
Speaker 5: But absolutely none of these regional partners or foes want
Speaker 5: to see a wider war spread because this would drag
Speaker 5: everyone in. It's not just an Iran Israel thing. It's
Speaker 5: e Lebanon, it's a Syria, it's in Iraq. I am
Speaker 5: so even the golf and so one would hope that
Speaker 5: cooler heads will prevail. But this is why when you
Speaker 5: see the signaling from the Iranian emissions saying so publicly
Speaker 5: how their response will look like that, it's almost de
Speaker 5: escalatory even though they are going to respond. And this
Speaker 5: is exactly what happened in April.
Speaker 2: That's fascinating is the US still in Benjamin Etna, who's
Speaker 2: ear or has the tension over this war with hamas
Speaker 2: broken down the credibility of the administration when it reaches
Speaker 2: out to Na.
Speaker 5: Well, I think one of the things that are really
Speaker 5: playing a complicated things as the US election itself. We
Speaker 5: suddenly have a possible different Democratic presidential candidate with Biden
Speaker 5: no longer that differently yes, and so I think that Netanya,
Speaker 5: who is having to cautually keep that in the back
Speaker 5: of his mind, like who will be in office come James.
Speaker 4: Are worried about Kamala Harris.
Speaker 5: I mean, I would say that you're not going to
Speaker 5: see too much of a difference between the Biden policy.
Speaker 5: But at the end of the day, we really don't
Speaker 5: know what Kamala Harris's Middle East strategy is, except with
Speaker 5: the exception of her comments that were made after her
Speaker 5: meeting with Netanyahu last week. But when you're looking at
Speaker 5: the big picture with where things are going, I think
Speaker 5: that Netanya, who is having to tread carefully because he
Speaker 5: also has to think about his own career which is
Speaker 5: at risk as well.
Speaker 2: Well, that's right, Kamala Harris is striking. We'll say exactly
Speaker 2: the same thing word for word as Joe Biden, but
Speaker 2: will be applauded by members of the squad and it will.
Speaker 4: Be interpreted differently.
Speaker 2: When she had those remarks following the meeting, she didn't
Speaker 2: say anything Joe Biden had not said before and calling
Speaker 2: for a ceasefire, but it landed differently. Why.
Speaker 5: I think the way she talked about the conflict itself,
Speaker 5: I remember reading some of the analysis was that it
Speaker 5: was seen as more balanced because it wasn't talking just
Speaker 5: about what was happening in Israel, but what was happening
Speaker 5: with the humanitarian situation on the ground.
Speaker 2: She says, our support, desire and clad when it comes
Speaker 2: to Israel, right, correct, correct, So it's kind.
Speaker 4: Of the same message.
Speaker 5: Yes, it's just I would say boxed a little differently.
Speaker 5: As you noted.
Speaker 2: What's the message from Donald Trump? There's been talk of
Speaker 2: a feud between these two. They got back together at
Speaker 2: mar A Lago. We all saw the hug.
Speaker 4: What's Donald Trump's real policy? Does Benjamin Nett? YEAHO, No, Well,
Speaker 4: I think.
Speaker 5: That Donald Trump, our former US president, Donald Trump's view
Speaker 5: is he's a deal maker. If this war drags on
Speaker 5: to let's say, if he was to win the election
Speaker 5: come January, he's going to want to make a deal
Speaker 5: because he would like to win the Nobel Peace Prize.
Speaker 4: He'd like the Nobel Peace Prize.
Speaker 5: Yes, he's always seemed to hint.
Speaker 4: At that my way of Israel.
Speaker 5: I mean, he would like to be the peacemaker between
Speaker 5: and to end the war. And I really think that is.
Speaker 4: That a good thing.
Speaker 5: I mean, nobody wants a war to go go on.
Speaker 5: But I think that when Jnald Trump thinks about the conflict,
Speaker 5: he's thinking about making a deal.
Speaker 2: That's fascinating and that would probably go for Ukraine as well. Right,
Speaker 2: So he sweeps in brings both conflicts to a close.
Speaker 2: Wins the Nobel Peace Prize. That's that's the idea.
Speaker 5: I mean that his in his world potentially.
Speaker 2: Yes, in Kamala Harris's world, does the cease fire happen
Speaker 2: before November? Is that something that Benjamina who would wait
Speaker 2: to see?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 5: I think that the fact that Ismailhanye was just assassinated,
Speaker 5: who is a chief negotiator, has definitely delayed negotiations. It
Speaker 5: hasn't ended them, but I think that it may possibly
Speaker 5: go past November. We'll have to see.
Speaker 2: These are wild times to think that we're talking about
Speaker 2: this today. When we called you last evening, we didn't
Speaker 2: know what would be happening in Tehran. And this really
Speaker 2: has become a day to day, almost hour to hour story.
Speaker 4: Hasn't it. It has all over again. It's great to
Speaker 4: have you back.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then
Speaker 1: froud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 7: In the latest Bloomberg News Morning Console Swing state poll
Speaker 7: that didn't just show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in
Speaker 7: a statistical tie across the seven states that will likely
Speaker 7: decide the election, but also showed where voters trust them
Speaker 7: when it comes to specific issues. On unity, Joe Kamala
Speaker 7: Harris is the favorite. On immigration and on the economy,
Speaker 7: it is Donald Trump by a wide margin.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can drill down even more when it comes
Speaker 2: Kayley to stock market performance Trump forty eight Kamala Harris
Speaker 2: thirty five. That's who do you trust more to handle?
Speaker 2: That's a wide disparity forty seven, forty two in favor
Speaker 2: of Trump when it comes to taxes and on this
Speaker 2: FED day interest rates Trump forty six Kamala Harris thirty nine.
Speaker 2: Maybe she should start tweeting at Jay Powell the way
Speaker 2: he used to to turn those numbers around. It makes
Speaker 2: you wonder where the strength is coming from as she
Speaker 2: makes up for so much lost ground here. And to
Speaker 2: your point, Wendy Benjaminson has been all over this for
Speaker 2: US Washington Senior editor and are polling guru here in
Speaker 2: the newsroom. Wendy, give us the big picture, because this
Speaker 2: isn't just making up ground. She's leading in Michigan by
Speaker 2: eleven points. What are the issues driving this?
Speaker 6: Well?
Speaker 8: I think part of the issue is just the sort
Speaker 8: of excitement and energy that she brings to the campaign.
Speaker 8: It's like Democratic voters all over the country are saying, Wow,
Speaker 8: now we got a raise. Okay, let's you know, let's
Speaker 8: all get in there. And we're seeing that in her
Speaker 8: fundraising numbers two hundred million dollars in one week. Sixty
Speaker 8: six percent of them were first time donors. We're seeing
Speaker 8: it in the poll among enthusiasm to vote now is up.
Speaker 8: Sixty five percent of Black respondents in our poll said
Speaker 8: they were more motivated to vote now that she's in
Speaker 8: the race. Similar numbers for Hispanics and for young people
Speaker 8: of all races. These are the people that Donald Trump
Speaker 8: was just losing in droves. But to your point on
Speaker 8: the who do you trust questions, one of the things
Speaker 8: I should point out is that, yes, she is still
Speaker 8: well behind Donald Trump on economic issues and immigration, but
Speaker 8: she's ahead of where Biden was last month. So she's
Speaker 8: made up some of that ground. And now now that
Speaker 8: we've gone through the hey gee, it's Kamala. Isn't that exciting?
Speaker 8: Now she's going to have to start talking about issues
Speaker 8: and we'll see where she goes there.
Speaker 7: Well, certainly we've already seen with the initial advis from
Speaker 7: the Trump campaign going after her on the issue of
Speaker 7: the border. We talked a lot about those yesterday. It
Speaker 7: is worth noting as well. And of course this poll
Speaker 7: went into the field after we knew that JD. Vance
Speaker 7: was alongside Donald Trump on this ticket. We still don't
Speaker 7: know who's joining Kamala Harris. We expect we'll find out
Speaker 7: within the next week. But how should we be thinking
Speaker 7: about the impact that could.
Speaker 8: Have the impact of her choosing a vice president. I
Speaker 8: think she really needs to look at the states where
Speaker 8: she needs to gain ground. We are looking very closely
Speaker 8: now at Jos Shapiro, Mark Kelly and Tim Walls. And
Speaker 8: Tim Walls brings a sort of progressive energy that will
Speaker 8: help her sustain that young vote and the votes of
Speaker 8: people of color. Doesn't do much geographically. I mean, Minnesota
Speaker 8: has always been a blue state, always has been, always
Speaker 8: will be, despite Donald Trump's efforts to turn it. Read Pennsylvania,
Speaker 8: where Jos Shapiro is the governor. Our poll shows she's
Speaker 8: still down there, probably because of her remarks on fracking,
Speaker 8: probably because unions aren't sure what to do yet, so
Speaker 8: she needs to make up a lot of ground there,
Speaker 8: But as you noted, immigration is her Achilles heel. It
Speaker 8: is the one thing that Donald Trump is just going
Speaker 8: to hammer on day in and day out, where Mark
Speaker 8: Kelly of Arizona could as a moderate border state senator,
Speaker 8: help her mitigate that.
Speaker 2: There's one number in here that I find interesting that's
Speaker 2: not getting enough talk. In my opinion, we talked about
Speaker 2: interest rates, the price of goods, a number of financial issues.
Speaker 2: There's one thing that touches all of us, and that's
Speaker 2: healthcare costs. And she's blowing Donald Trump out of the
Speaker 2: water on this. Harris forty nine percent, Trump forty Who
Speaker 2: do you trust more to handle healthcare costs? Almost a
Speaker 2: ten point spread. Does he need to start talking about
Speaker 2: this in a different way?
Speaker 8: Well, if he wants to win the trust of voters
Speaker 8: on those issues, maybe he should. But remember he wants
Speaker 8: to end the Affordable Care Act. He's been saying that
Speaker 8: for years. He said it all through his first term,
Speaker 8: and he couldn't get it done because Congress wouldn't go along.
Speaker 8: And he's doing it again this year. And affordable healthcare.
Speaker 8: She's that is the one thing she has already been
Speaker 8: hammering on in her rallies is that he wants to
Speaker 8: end that I'm to help people. I'm here to help people,
Speaker 8: you know, get what the care they need. I think
Speaker 8: she will focus much more than Biden did on the
Speaker 8: care economy, childcare, housing costs, healthcare, elder care, the sort
Speaker 8: of things that families worry about every day, as opposed
Speaker 8: to Donald Trump's ideas of what costs, what is better
Speaker 8: for business?
Speaker 7: All right, Bloomberg's Wendy Benjaminson Marathon twenty four hours for
Speaker 7: Wendy as we got this pull out into the world,
Speaker 7: Thank you so much. And of course what we are
Speaker 7: listening to Wendy and detailing our polling that shows more
Speaker 7: enthusiasm among black voters, who suggest they may be more
Speaker 7: likely to vote now that Kamala Harris is in the race.
Speaker 7: It is worth noting that as we speak, we're preparing
Speaker 7: to hear from Donald Trump at the National Association of
Speaker 7: Black Journalists in Chicago, where he will be taking part
Speaker 7: in a moderated panel Joe. Of course, Kamala Harris is
Speaker 7: not going to be there today. It is planned apparently
Speaker 7: for a virtual or other wise meeting in September. But
Speaker 7: it speaks to this notion that Donald Trump is trying
Speaker 7: to reach a certain demographic here. So on this note,
Speaker 7: let's assemble now. Our political panel with us is Lauren Tomlinson,
Speaker 7: Republican strategist and Claffee Communications President, and Jane Wartel, who's
Speaker 7: our Democratic strategist today. She is partner at our initiative,
Speaker 7: so Jenay. Obviously, while we wait to hear more from
Speaker 7: Donald Trump in Chicago today, we have heard a great
Speaker 7: deal from him over the last twenty four hours. We've
Speaker 7: seen advertisements as well. I just saw Kamala Harris ad
Speaker 7: in fact that was running during the Olympics. When we
Speaker 7: think about the messaging here, Harris still trying to introduce
Speaker 7: herself and Donald Trump already attacking her, how soon does
Speaker 7: Kamala Harris need to go on the attack in return?
Speaker 9: Well, I believe the Vice President Harris is going to
Speaker 9: spend the next few days on the campaign trail, as
Speaker 9: you said, introducing ourselves to voters, making sure that they
Speaker 9: know who she is. Certainly we're very familiar with her
Speaker 9: from our time as vice president, but making sure that
Speaker 9: voters know her plan and how that may differ ever
Speaker 9: so slightly or in great measure from President Biden's policy
Speaker 9: stances on certain issues. I think that she has actually
Speaker 9: been in that time also taking an opportunity to demonstrate
Speaker 9: for voters what the contrast is, particularly on the economy,
Speaker 9: particularly on reproductive freedom, and I think that's been really important.
Speaker 9: When she talks about you not going back, she talks
Speaker 9: about not going back to many of the Trump policies
Speaker 9: that were failed, and also highlighting that former President Trump
Speaker 9: really has an outlined a vision for America that is progressive,
Speaker 9: that moved forward, but rather rehashing kind of some of
Speaker 9: his past failures as president and places where he really
Speaker 9: didn't get the job done. So I believe she's threading
Speaker 9: the needle and doing both introducing herself now to voters,
Speaker 9: but also creating contrast early with former President Trump.
Speaker 2: I want to ask you both about the results of
Speaker 2: this poll, Lauren.
Speaker 4: From the view of.
Speaker 2: The Trump campaign, they can't be happy with what Bloomberg
Speaker 2: News in Morning Consult is finding here, particularly when it
Speaker 2: comes to some of the blue Wall states as Democrats
Speaker 2: call them, like Michigan with Kamala Harris up eleven. I
Speaker 2: don't know how far you're reading into that, but does
Speaker 2: this suggest a narrowing path for Donald Trump?
Speaker 10: I think it puts us back pre debate.
Speaker 11: So a lot of this is very similar to how
Speaker 11: tight we were looking at the Blue States pre Joe
Speaker 11: Biden's cognitive issues coming to roost. So I think that
Speaker 11: for the Trump campaign, yes, they're going to be concerned
Speaker 11: their advantage was just eliminated with Kamala coming in, but
Speaker 11: it doesn't change the strategy and the outreach that they're
Speaker 11: going to have to do to make sure that they
Speaker 11: make up these numbers and the targets are still the same,
Speaker 11: So they've got a lot of work to do. They've
Speaker 11: got to stay focused. And also, you know, like we've
Speaker 11: been talking about, there's a huge enthusiasm boost right now.
Speaker 11: So who knows if Michigan, for example, stays at eleven.
Speaker 11: I imagine it's going to calm down a little bit
Speaker 11: as Kamala.
Speaker 10: Talks about the policy issues and all of these things.
Speaker 3: That are going forward.
Speaker 11: But for the moment, the polls are going to reflect
Speaker 11: that enthusiasm boost and they're going to be very very tight,
Speaker 11: and any campaign is going to be concerned about that.
Speaker 10: But they've got to keep doing the work.
Speaker 7: So that's how Donald Trump may be looking at these figures.
Speaker 7: But Janey, what about if you're the Kamala Harris campaign
Speaker 7: as nascent as it still is, knowing you have to
Speaker 7: make a vice presidential selection in just the next few days.
Speaker 7: We're expecting this could happen by next Tuesday. How could
Speaker 7: figures like what we're seeing in states like say Pennsylvania
Speaker 7: or Arizona or Georgia for that matter, influenced that decision.
Speaker 9: Well, you have to look at what does a vice
Speaker 9: presidential pick really bring to the ticket? Right you're thinking
Speaker 9: about obviously your swing states where you have folks like
Speaker 9: Josh Shapiro, where you have folks like Mark Kelly, who
Speaker 9: are people who could really add and expand your map
Speaker 9: and make some of those tougher battleground states a little
Speaker 9: less tough. But you also have to think about what
Speaker 9: are the policy positions and the roles that they've played
Speaker 9: in governance that really do bring kind of that credentialing
Speaker 9: to to your ticket. And so that's why someone like
Speaker 9: uh A, Joshapiro or Mark Kelly really does rise to
Speaker 9: the top of that list, because these are folks who
Speaker 9: understand the nuance of policymaking. They understand, you know, the
Speaker 9: interplay between the executive being an executive but then you know,
Speaker 9: Mark Kelly also understands what it means to be an
Speaker 9: elective member of of of a federal of a federal chamber.
Speaker 9: And so I think that those that that governance experience
Speaker 9: is really important, and the certain policies and leadership roles
Speaker 9: that they've taken up on committees is also a big.
Speaker 3: Part of this.
Speaker 9: And I think the third part you got to think
Speaker 9: about the coalition that they bring in their states, whether
Speaker 9: you're thinking about moderate voters, whether you're thinking about swing voters,
Speaker 9: and in your base voters as well, what do they
Speaker 9: bring in terms of helping you to share that up.
Speaker 9: And we've seen that Vice President Harris has had tremendous
Speaker 9: enthusiasm in the base, but there is still that middle, right,
Speaker 9: there are still those moderate voters who I believe this
Speaker 9: vice presidential pick for her will have to help sure
Speaker 9: up Lauren.
Speaker 2: We've been talking about voter's propensity to trust Donald Trump
Speaker 2: more than Kamala Harris when it comes to economic issues,
Speaker 2: how to handle interest rates, the price of goods, the
Speaker 2: cost of services. There's a huge exception though, as we
Speaker 2: just identified, and that's healthcare costs. Kamala Harris is trusted
Speaker 2: by forty nine percent to Donald Trump's forty percent. Knowing
Speaker 2: he's been attacking the Affordable Care Act and has promised
Speaker 2: for years to put forth a proposal that would rival
Speaker 2: what many call Obamacare, to see actually to close the
Speaker 2: deal on that, to shore up this number and put
Speaker 2: up a credible plan.
Speaker 11: I think he would. But the thing about the healthcare
Speaker 11: numbers is I'm not sure that that's going to rise
Speaker 11: to a top three issue where they're going to spend
Speaker 11: a lot of time messaging about it. We consistently see
Speaker 11: in the polls that people are making their decision on
Speaker 11: the next president based on the economy, based on immigration,
Speaker 11: based on crime in their communities. And so while those
Speaker 11: top three, you know, it's kind of like the hierarchy
Speaker 11: of needs. While those top three are top of mind healthcare, unity,
Speaker 11: fear for democracy, a lot of these other things fall
Speaker 11: to the wayside. They may came up, came up in
Speaker 11: a debate, but we're not going to see the same
Speaker 11: impact that they had in Donald Trump's midterms. For example,
Speaker 11: when you know, there was like a big healthcare scare
Speaker 11: among seniors, and that really flipped some of those congressional
Speaker 11: districts for Democrats. So I'm not I don't think they're
Speaker 11: worried about it as much, but eventually he is going
Speaker 11: to have to address that because he's said multiple times
Speaker 11: that he doesn't want to take away healthcare. He wants
Speaker 11: to lower costs in those types of things, and he
Speaker 11: needs to say how he wants to do it.
Speaker 9: Well.
Speaker 7: If we're thinking about healthcare policy, Jenee. Of course, it's
Speaker 7: been pointed out on that issue as well as others,
Speaker 7: including fracking, which our colleague Wendy just mentioned. When Harris
Speaker 7: was campaigning for president at the first time around in
Speaker 7: twenty nineteen, she was adopting some of these more progressive
Speaker 7: liberal policies. It does feel that in some ways she
Speaker 7: is walking back from them.
Speaker 9: Now.
Speaker 7: How should she be towing that line of still trying
Speaker 7: to attract those progressive voters that she was in that
Speaker 7: primary back in the twenty twenty cycle, versus trying to
Speaker 7: appeal to more moderates and without looking as though she's
Speaker 7: faltering on her own beliefs.
Speaker 9: I think what's important here is to highlight what she
Speaker 9: said on the campaign trail in terms of her record,
Speaker 9: but I think it's also an ability for her, in
Speaker 9: a vice president to really embrace policies that may be
Speaker 9: a bit more popular in this moment, right, you have
Speaker 9: to be listening to the American voters and figuring out
Speaker 9: where the polling and the messaging is telling what the
Speaker 9: polling and the messaging is telling you. You know, I
Speaker 9: know that this is obviously the early days of the
Speaker 9: Harris campaign, but I think this is also a moment
Speaker 9: where there's probably a fair amount of message testing. There's
Speaker 9: probably a fair amount of them looking at where the
Speaker 9: electorates attitudes rests in terms of some of these more
Speaker 9: progressive and moderate policies, and how do they come down
Speaker 9: on a Harrish for president messaging strategy that really speaks to.
Speaker 3: Where the voters are.
Speaker 9: And I don't think that really abandons any of the
Speaker 9: progressive values and views that she's presented. And I don't
Speaker 9: think that you know, is pandering to moderates. I think
Speaker 9: it's looking at where are the accomplishments aligned with her
Speaker 9: ability to get things done, and how to strike a
Speaker 9: new message that is right dead in the center.
Speaker 4: Of that.
Speaker 2: Smart talk with a great panel Jenny Wartel, Democratic Strategists,
Speaker 2: partner at ARC Initiatives. Thank you, Jenne, alongside Lauren Tomlinson,
Speaker 2: Republican Strategists, the head of Claffee Communications, and a great
Speaker 2: conversation for our viewers and listeners today on Balance of Power.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and
Speaker 1: then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can
Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New
Speaker 1: York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 7: We wait the FED decision at two pm Eastern times.
Speaker 7: We've discussed they are widely expected to hold rate study today,
Speaker 7: but there are some voices here in Washington that would
Speaker 7: like to see a cut happen now instead of waiting
Speaker 7: until September. That includes Senators Elizabeth Warren, John Hickenlooper, and
Speaker 7: Sheldon Whitehouse, who today Joe wrote a letter to German Powell,
Speaker 7: as we have seen them do for a few meetings
Speaker 7: in a row now, urging that the data suggests the
Speaker 7: fetch cut rates. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Look, there are some on Wall Street kind of quietly
Speaker 2: hoping for that today too.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 2: You better believe Lindsay Owens has been making that call
Speaker 2: ever since we started talking with her. Several months ago,
Speaker 2: executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, former senior economic policy
Speaker 2: advisor to the aforementioned Elizabeth Warren lindsay, it's great to
Speaker 2: see you as we walk up to our special coverage here.
Speaker 2: What do you actually think will happen today? Is the
Speaker 2: conventional wisdom?
Speaker 4: Correct?
Speaker 3: Yeah, Look, the.
Speaker 10: Conventional wisdom is that they're going to hold steady.
Speaker 6: But I think all signs are clearly indicating that it's
Speaker 6: time for rate cuts.
Speaker 10: In fact, it may be pastime for rate cuts.
Speaker 6: When I zoom out and look at the big picture
Speaker 6: for American consumers, for American workers, for American families, all
Speaker 6: of the data is saying it's time to cut rates.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 10: We've got real softening in the labor market.
Speaker 6: Obviously, unemployment is low by historical standards, but we've seen
Speaker 6: it ticking up.
Speaker 10: We've seen those.
Speaker 6: Jabas claimed ticking up. We've seen wage growth softening. We're
Speaker 6: also seeing consumers burdened by this incredibly high interest rate environment.
Speaker 6: Most Americans are not buying houses with cash, they're not
Speaker 6: buying cars with cash. In fact, they're putting a fair
Speaker 6: amount of their monthly expenditures on credit. And when the
Speaker 6: cost of borrowing is up this high. That's really squeezing families,
Speaker 6: and you've got to start wondering whether the interest rate
Speaker 6: impacts on families are outweighing the inflation impacts on families.
Speaker 10: So I think all signs are.
Speaker 6: Pointing towards rate cuts, and if we don't get that
Speaker 6: upside surprise today with an announcement of cuts, I think
Speaker 6: we better see a bigger set of cuts in September,
Speaker 6: something along the lines of fifty basis points.
Speaker 7: Oh wow, Okay, Well, we'll see if Chairman Powell is
Speaker 7: willing to commit to something like that or just suggests
Speaker 7: that they'll be data dependent. But lindsay, considering you were
Speaker 7: just running us through data that you say does suggest
Speaker 7: the Fed should be in a position to ease here,
Speaker 7: the fact is the Fed has not prepared the market
Speaker 7: for that, right. Do you think this time would be
Speaker 7: different in any way that they would be willing to
Speaker 7: take the market by surprise.
Speaker 6: Well, look, I think that the chair of the Federal
Speaker 6: Reserve has got to balance stable prices with maximum employment.
Speaker 10: That's his job, and I think doing that.
Speaker 6: Job well may require moving when the data indicates it's
Speaker 6: time to move. So you know, last time you know,
Speaker 6: at this time last year, the FED thought we'd be
Speaker 6: in about three and a half percent inflation, and we're
Speaker 6: actually closer to two.
Speaker 10: And a half percent inflation.
Speaker 6: So I worry that they are behind the eight ball here,
Speaker 6: And with every passing FOMC meeting where they don't move
Speaker 6: to correct for being behind the eight ball, the risks.
Speaker 10: Accumulate and compound.
Speaker 6: And I think, you know, the biggest concern here is
Speaker 6: they put us in a recessionary environment and they're you know,
Speaker 6: and it's too late to course correct, and so much
Speaker 6: better to course correct early than late in my opinion.
Speaker 4: When will we know? Lindsay, if it's too late.
Speaker 10: Well, that's part of the problem here.
Speaker 6: You often don't know until you're until you're already sort
Speaker 6: of boiling, right, the sort of the frog isn't in
Speaker 6: a pot of water, and you don't realize your.
Speaker 10: Toast until you are.
Speaker 6: And so that's why I think when you look at
Speaker 6: the big picture here, when you look at the data,
Speaker 6: you have to balance all of the information and what
Speaker 6: I'm seeing in the big picture for consumers, for workers,
Speaker 6: and for a recession risk all points towards cutting rates. Now,
Speaker 6: the other piece of data that I think we have
Speaker 6: to look at is what's driving the remaining portion of inflation,
Speaker 6: and here what we see is that the lie and
Speaker 6: share of it is coming from housing and energy, and
Speaker 6: both of these two markets, both of these two sectors
Speaker 6: are not benefiting from historically tight interest rates. If we
Speaker 6: want to bring more housing supply online, if we want
Speaker 6: to get housing starts up, we've got to bring interest
Speaker 6: rates down.
Speaker 10: And if we want to start transitioning.
Speaker 6: To a more resilient and clean energy future, we've got
Speaker 6: to also bring that supply online, get those investments in
Speaker 6: clean energy online. And the interest rate environment that we're
Speaker 6: really laboring under and suffering under right now is moving
Speaker 6: us in the opposite direction on both of those counts.
Speaker 7: Well, it is interesting to consider we got pending home
Speaker 7: sales data earlier this morning, Lindsay, which actually surprised to
Speaker 7: the upside in a big way, up four point eight
Speaker 7: percent month over month. The expectation was for one and
Speaker 7: a half percent. So maybe we are seeing some loosening
Speaker 7: up in a housing market that has been also very
Speaker 7: stuck for some time now. As we have that differential
Speaker 7: between mortgage rates you can get now and what you
Speaker 7: could get before this hiking cycle really started. Of course,
Speaker 7: we have to consider, as well, as we talk about
Speaker 7: often here on balance of power, that we are in
Speaker 7: the middle of an election cycle. If the FED is
Speaker 7: going to signal cutting in September, perhaps if your suggestion
Speaker 7: is correct as much as fifty basis points right before
Speaker 7: an election, we've seen elect officials suggest that would be
Speaker 7: viewed as politically motivated problematic. Do you think ultimately that
Speaker 7: bears weight with Jerown Powell and his colleagues.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm so glad that you raised this point, because
Speaker 6: we're living in this sort of Alison Wonderland parallel universe
Speaker 6: right now, where up is down and down is up.
Speaker 6: The fact of the matter is, if the data indicates
Speaker 6: that the FED needs to cut rates, they need to
Speaker 6: cut rates, and not cutting rates when the data suggests
Speaker 6: that they should be cutting rates because of concerns about
Speaker 6: the election. That's the political move, right, The political move
Speaker 6: is changing course off the data to support a candidate
Speaker 6: or a particular economic atmosphere or particular election atmosphere.
Speaker 10: So if the data says cut, they have to cut.
Speaker 6: And if they decide not to cut because of the election,
Speaker 6: that ultimately is a political decision.
Speaker 10: Their job is to.
Speaker 6: Follow the data and to follow their dual mandate of
Speaker 6: bringing Americans stable prices and maximum employment.
Speaker 2: Lindsay, we only have about a mine it left here.
Speaker 2: What would you ask then Chair Powell in the news
Speaker 2: conference to draw him out.
Speaker 4: A little bit later on today following this decision.
Speaker 6: Yeah, if I'm in the news conference and I know
Speaker 6: that you know he's gonna a hold study in July,
Speaker 6: I'm going to ask him if you can double down
Speaker 6: in September, what would it look like to do a
Speaker 6: fifty basis point cut in September?
Speaker 7: All right, we'll see if that question gets asked. Lindsay,
Speaker 7: thank you so much as always for joining us on
Speaker 7: the SPEN Day. Lindsay Owens, executive director of the Groundwork
Speaker 7: Collaborative and former Senior Economic policy advisor to Senator Elizabeth Warren,
Speaker 7: who again is encouraging Chairman Powell consistently.
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.