1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay, and then roud Otto with the 4 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:21,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:24,760 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 2: We turned to the aforementioned Bloomberg News Morning Consult Swing 7 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 2: State poll, in which voters in the Swing States, the 8 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 2: seven swing states that will decide this election, We're asked 9 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:39,480 Speaker 2: about things like interest rates. Who do you trust more 10 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 2: to handle interest rates? Look at this Donald Trump forty 11 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 2: six percent, Kamala Harris thirty nine percent. Who do you 12 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,560 Speaker 2: trust more to cost? To handle the cost of everyday goods? 13 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 2: Donald Trump forty seven, Kamala Harris forty two. Taxes Trump 14 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 2: forty seven, Harris forty two. But when you pull out 15 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 2: from the economic issues and you look at the top 16 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 2: line numbers, this has been a remarkable, if not seismic 17 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 2: shift in American politics. In just the better part of 18 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 2: a week since Joe Biden dropped out, Kamala Harris rose 19 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 2: to the top of the ticket. She is now in 20 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 2: a statistical tie with Donald Trump. Pleasure to bring in 21 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 2: Eli Yoakley. We do this every month when the big 22 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 2: pole drops US politics analyst that morning, consult our partners 23 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 2: on this poll. Eli, have you ever seen a turn 24 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 2: like this? I'll get into the States, especially Michigan with 25 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 2: you in a second, but just overall, to erase a 26 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:39,760 Speaker 2: gap like that is pretty remarkable in just seven or 27 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 2: eight days. 28 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 3: Have I ever saw it? I saw it this week. 29 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 3: Let's go. What a time to be alive. But no, look, 30 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 3: it's truly remarkable. Clearly, this is a reset moment in 31 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 3: the campaign. I mean, we've been talking month after month. 32 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 3: This is our I think tenth wave now and the 33 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:03,639 Speaker 3: race kind of static, and between trump assassination, Joe Biden 34 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 3: dropping out, and Kamala Harris's rise pretty seismic a few weeks. 35 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:09,839 Speaker 3: I think the American electorate is paying attention now. 36 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,959 Speaker 2: The American electorate is paying attention. And if the election 37 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 2: were held today, pretty hard to say where this would go. 38 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 2: But when we drill down on the States, we learn 39 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 2: a lot. 40 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 4: Eli. 41 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 2: Pennsylvania remains Donald Trump's to lose, according to what I'm 42 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 2: seeing here fifty percent to Harris's forty six. But she's 43 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 2: closed the gap and is in fact leading Donald Trump 44 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 2: in both Michigan and Wisconsin. This Michigan number jumps off 45 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:39,360 Speaker 2: the page plus eleven. Could we look back on this 46 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 2: as an outlier? How do you explain that, Eli, It's possible. 47 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 3: I mean, all these figures could be outliers when we 48 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 3: look back in a few months. What we're noticing, and 49 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:53,079 Speaker 3: I think Michigan is a good example of this, is 50 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 3: the fact that Democrats and voters of color, young people 51 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 3: are starting to come in line to how you typically 52 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 3: expect them to perform. Kamala Harris is performing me so 53 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 3: much better among Biden's twenty twenty voters than he is. 54 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:12,520 Speaker 3: She's a parody with Donald Trump been the swing state aggregate. 55 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 3: That had been his big advantage across the swing state 56 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 3: map was getting those folks who voted for him back 57 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty say they're going to vote for him again. 58 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 3: That advantage seems to have been a race. Now. Look 59 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 3: not to pour cold water on anything here, but if 60 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 3: we look at the leads that Kamala Harris has today 61 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 3: and say she wins all of these, it doesn't make 62 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:38,119 Speaker 3: her president. You know. Having having Georgia tied, for example, 63 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 3: could be the decisive state at some point. We'll have 64 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 3: to watch what happens in the coming weeks. I mean, 65 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 3: this is this happened just as her campaign launched, and 66 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 3: so this is an early moment in the campaign to 67 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 3: get a gauge of where your voters are with her. 68 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 3: But at this early stage, before the hits have come 69 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 3: against her, she looks to be in a much better 70 00:03:58,240 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 3: position at winning the White House. 71 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 4: Joe Biden was well. 72 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 2: Just to put a finer point on that, eli is 73 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 2: Kamala Harris ahead now of where Joe Biden was before 74 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 2: the debate. 75 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 3: She is, especially when you look at the national numbers. 76 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 3: I mean, it was a pretty close race. We do 77 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 3: daily tracking every single day, and we did not see 78 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 3: much movement. Joe Biden was under Trump by one or 79 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 3: two or three points, depending on the day. Every survey 80 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 3: we've gotten back in the last few days since Kamala 81 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 3: Harris became the presumptive nominee has had her up on 82 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 3: Donald Trump. Clearly, that is that is a shift in 83 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 3: the political environment in the Democratic Party's favor. And then 84 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 3: after the debate, I mean, Joe Biden was just not 85 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:45,279 Speaker 3: in a position where he could be really competitive probably 86 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 3: as the race stood, but you know, now, it's still early. 87 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 3: The Democratic National Convention is going to be a big 88 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:57,279 Speaker 3: defining moment for Kamala Harris. I remember watching our tracking 89 00:04:57,320 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 3: of the twenty twenty contest, and what Sephanie Cutter and 90 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 3: the Democratic National Committee Convention did for Joe Biden was 91 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 3: boost his favorability and strengthen the kind of views people 92 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 3: had of him. People don't pay as much attention to 93 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 3: vice presidents as we do here in Washington. I mean, 94 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:19,320 Speaker 3: even Kamala Harris's numbers were pretty soft. A lot of 95 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 3: people had somewhat favorable or somewhat unfavorable views of her. 96 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 3: We're starting to see that shift as she gets the 97 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 3: spotlight the coming weeks, as the Trump campaign rolls out 98 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:33,159 Speaker 3: some negative ads and she gets out her positive ones well. Plus, 99 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:36,840 Speaker 3: the Democratic Convention is going to see how she's able 100 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 3: to stand up some of the scrutiny. 101 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 2: I think you asked voters Eli about some of the 102 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 2: candidates on the shortlist for running mate. Is it worth 103 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,559 Speaker 2: talking about that Each state's going to feel differently about 104 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 2: their own favorite son or daughter. Did we learn anything 105 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 2: that equals a trend? 106 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 3: I think that the numbers are pretty intuitive if you're 107 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 3: in Arizona, you like Mark Kelly. If you're in Pennsylvania, 108 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 3: you like Josh Europe. On the national level, it kind 109 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 3: of also makes since Pete Pittage is the most well 110 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 3: known and well liked figure that has been on various 111 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 3: short lists. He's followed by Josh Shapiro. And if you're 112 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 3: thinking about Pennsylvania, you're thinking about a place where both 113 00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 3: Joe Biden and now Kamala Harris are not yet leading 114 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:22,919 Speaker 3: Donald Trump. You can see how a popular governor who 115 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 3: can give quite a speech that makes a lot of 116 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 3: people think about former President Barack Obama every once in 117 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 3: a while, you can see that being a helpful person 118 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:38,039 Speaker 3: to have on the ticket. But what is going to 119 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 3: have to happen with the vice presidential nominee is just 120 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 3: a severe attack dog. I mean, the campaign via Morning 121 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 3: Joe and the other shows that the Democratic possible contenders 122 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 3: have been waging has been pretty fascinating to why it's 123 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 3: been which which governor, which Democratic governor can out attack 124 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 3: Donald Trump and JD. Vance. Advance has become a creative 125 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 3: target for some of these folks with some of the 126 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 3: some of the interesting developments we've learned about his history. 127 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 3: But I think the vice presidential contender probably matters not 128 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 3: as much as that top of the ticket figure, Kamala Harris. 129 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 3: She really seems to be getting Democratic voters in mind. 130 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 2: I'm sure it's not even close, to be honest, but 131 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 2: you're right, Pennsylvania is not lost on us in the 132 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 2: fact that she has an announcement on a running mate. 133 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 2: I believe scheduled or at least the first stop is 134 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 2: going to be in Philadelphia next week to start this 135 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 2: road trip with the running mate. I don't know. Just 136 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 2: something to consider. By the way, if you didn't see 137 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 2: the video of Governor Shapiro playing basketball with those young 138 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 2: kids yesterday, pretty strong optics. ELI talk to me about 139 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 2: motivation here, activating the base. More than a third of 140 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 2: voters in the seven states here say they are much 141 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 2: more likely to vote in a Trump Harris contest than 142 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 2: a Trump Biden one. 143 00:07:58,560 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 4: What does that tell us? 144 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 3: I think the most interesting figures there are the people 145 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 3: most impacted this have been Black voters. You know, that's 146 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 3: such a core key constituency for Democrats to be able 147 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 3: to win elections. Having black voters more fired up this 148 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 3: time around is only a positive step. I think the 149 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 3: most important thing though, is these young voters. I mean, 150 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 3: gen Z is up there on the same level as 151 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 3: black voters in terms of new enthusiasm. I mean, that's 152 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,559 Speaker 3: one of the things that made the Michigan numbers stand 153 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 3: out so much, was Kamala Harris reverse the democrats poorer 154 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 3: performance among the youngest voters in the elector. We saw 155 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 3: that across the larger Swing State map. Two. Getting young 156 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 3: people excited is how Democrats win presidential elections. It's one 157 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 3: of the most important groups to get fired up to 158 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 3: come out to the polls, and so I think a 159 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:54,520 Speaker 3: shift at the top of the ticket, plus a more 160 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 3: compelling figure for young people, it's going to do a 161 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 3: lot of work to help motivate those voters and put 162 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 3: Donald Trump on the defense for the first time in 163 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 3: a while in this campaign. 164 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 2: Eli, really great to have you back, Eli Yokley, us 165 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 2: politics analysts that morning consult our partners throughout this campaign 166 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 2: on our monthly Bloomberg News Morning Consult Swing State Pole. 167 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:15,959 Speaker 4: Fascinating stuff, you'l. 168 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 2: I think you as always for the insights and the 169 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 2: great analysis. The other question that we didn't have chance 170 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 2: to discuss had to do with violence political violence around 171 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 2: the election It's something that we've been asking voters about 172 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:28,440 Speaker 2: months a month. 173 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 4: In this case, how did we ask it? 174 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 2: How much do you trust the election and its aftermath 175 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:37,679 Speaker 2: will be free from violence? Only sixteen percent said a lot, 176 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 2: Thirty four percent said some. We'll keep tabs on that 177 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 2: as we get our way through Chicago and get closer 178 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 2: to November. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. Thanks for coming along. 179 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 2: The fastest show in politics, will turn our attention to 180 00:09:51,960 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 2: Israel and Iran. Coming up next on Bloomberg Radio. 181 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to the bloom Balance of Power podcast kens 182 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on applecar Play and 183 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:07,679 Speaker 1: then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can 184 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 185 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 1: York station, Just Say Alexa Play. 186 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 2: Bloomberg eleven thirty says it all here on the terminal 187 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 2: in a single story, strikes on Israel's enemies in Tehran 188 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 2: and Beirut raised tensions with Israel demonstrating its willingness to 189 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 2: risk retaliation after the targeting within just a few hours 190 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 2: of senior Hamas and hesbel A leaders abroad raising the 191 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 2: prospects here of regional conflict. 192 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:39,959 Speaker 4: So it happened again around this time. 193 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:43,559 Speaker 2: Yesterday we were talking about the response, the retaliation against 194 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:49,679 Speaker 2: the Hamas Hesbelah bombing, rather of the children and teenagers 195 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 2: on the soccer field. Now we're talking about a strike 196 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 2: not on the Beirut suburbs, but in Tehran itself. The 197 00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 2: leader of Hamas, the political leader is my well, Hanya 198 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 2: assassinated in the early hours of the morning in Iran, 199 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 2: according to Hamas. And we need to be clear, while 200 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 2: this is being referred to as in Israeli airstrike, the 201 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 2: IDF has not in fact confirmed that it was their doing. 202 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:18,599 Speaker 2: And that's where we start our conversation with Holly Dagris. 203 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 2: We had to go to an expert on this editor 204 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 2: of the menta source in Iran, source, senior fellow in 205 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:25,560 Speaker 2: the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council. Holly, it's 206 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 2: good to see you. Thank you for coming back. Should 207 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 2: we assume this is Israel. 208 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 5: Well, I would say that Mussad's been treating Iran like 209 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 5: it's playground for many years now. They've played a role 210 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:41,239 Speaker 5: in sabotage on Iran's nuclear facilities, defense facilities, the assassination 211 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 5: of top nuclear scientists, and even this stealing of sensitive 212 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:47,559 Speaker 5: nuclear files. So I think a lot of folks are 213 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 5: pointing their fingers at Israel given that contact. 214 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 4: Pretty bold to strike in Tehran itself. 215 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 5: Well, not just that, the same day that was the 216 00:11:56,240 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 5: inauguration of the country's new in a massive possession with 217 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 5: one hundred and ten foreign delegations in the country. 218 00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 2: So there's now worry about the response to the response. 219 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 4: What's about to happen. 220 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 5: Well, we've heard publicly from the Supreme Leader himself, Ayetela 221 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 5: ade Kamine has actually said that he vows revenge. We've 222 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 5: also seen that the United Nations Iranian Permanent Mission to 223 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:27,680 Speaker 5: the United Nations has publicly said that they're going to 224 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:31,080 Speaker 5: engage in special operations, which I would say is a 225 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 5: signaling to the Western Israel that they're not going to 226 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 5: be directly responding like the way we saw in April 227 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 5: where Iran fired three hundred ballistic missiles drones at Israel directly. 228 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 5: But it sounds like they're going to respond. It's just 229 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 5: a matter of when and how. 230 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 2: And striking against an individual that's becomes a tip for tap. 231 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 5: It would seem very likely because they do see this 232 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 5: as an eye for an eye and the fact that 233 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 5: they didn't cite the UN Charter, which is what they 234 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:00,960 Speaker 5: did last time, which was they used international law to 235 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 5: make their case, tells me that this is going to 236 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 5: be a different kind of response than what we saw 237 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 5: in April. 238 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, to your point, Iran Supreme Leader responding to say 239 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 2: that Iran considers revenge as its duty written on his 240 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 2: official website, how do you read into. 241 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:23,560 Speaker 5: That, Well, the talk of revenge is very common with 242 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 5: the Supreme Leader in these contexts. He also vowed revenge 243 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 5: when the IRGC commander was taken out in Damascus at 244 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 5: the Iranian embassy compound in Syria that prompted the big 245 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 5: tip for tat we saw in April. He's also said 246 00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 5: that in the context of Rodesfors, commander lost some solar money. 247 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,559 Speaker 5: So there's this sense that they have to respond or 248 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:47,079 Speaker 5: else there's going to be seen as a sign of weakness. 249 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 4: Benjaminina who can relate with that? 250 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,319 Speaker 2: I started by referring to the risk that he's willing 251 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 2: to take here in this case. What is going on 252 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:59,959 Speaker 2: inside the inner circle that surrounds Benjamininya. 253 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 5: Well, we're nearly ten months into the Gaza war that 254 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:08,559 Speaker 5: was prompted by Hamas's terrorist attack on Israel and October seventh, 255 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:13,960 Speaker 5: and while these have been ongoing, the key point of 256 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:17,679 Speaker 5: Natanyahu's strategy was to take out Hamas, and we've seen 257 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 5: that not just Henia the political chief, was taken out, 258 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 5: but reportedly Muhammad Dave, one of the key military commanders 259 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 5: in Hamas. So in some ways this is at least 260 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 5: giving the appearance that they're actually making good on that 261 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 5: commentary that they're going to take out Hamas, not the 262 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 5: ideology itself, but it's leadership. 263 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 4: Well, so what do you make of this prospect? 264 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 6: Or? 265 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 2: We keep hearing about worries about a wider war, that 266 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 2: this could become a regional conflict that could even draw 267 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 2: Iran and the US into it. But a lot of 268 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 2: the smart analysis I've heard is that every party is 269 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 2: trying to avoid that. It doesn't help Hamas, it doesn't 270 00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 2: help Hazbolan, it doesn't help. 271 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 5: Israel absolutely, I know, like looking from the outside in, 272 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 5: it's like, well, how is this not going to all 273 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 5: these different tit for tached strikes in various shapes and forms. 274 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 5: But absolutely none of these regional partners or foes want 275 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 5: to see a wider war spread because this would drag 276 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 5: everyone in. It's not just an Iran Israel thing. It's 277 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 5: e Lebanon, it's a Syria, it's in Iraq. I am 278 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 5: so even the golf and so one would hope that 279 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 5: cooler heads will prevail. But this is why when you 280 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 5: see the signaling from the Iranian emissions saying so publicly 281 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:37,200 Speaker 5: how their response will look like that, it's almost de 282 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 5: escalatory even though they are going to respond. And this 283 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 5: is exactly what happened in April. 284 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 2: That's fascinating is the US still in Benjamin Etna, who's 285 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 2: ear or has the tension over this war with hamas 286 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 2: broken down the credibility of the administration when it reaches 287 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 2: out to Na. 288 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 5: Well, I think one of the things that are really 289 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 5: playing a complicated things as the US election itself. We 290 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 5: suddenly have a possible different Democratic presidential candidate with Biden 291 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 5: no longer that differently yes, and so I think that Netanya, 292 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 5: who is having to cautually keep that in the back 293 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 5: of his mind, like who will be in office come James. 294 00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 4: Are worried about Kamala Harris. 295 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 5: I mean, I would say that you're not going to 296 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 5: see too much of a difference between the Biden policy. 297 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 5: But at the end of the day, we really don't 298 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 5: know what Kamala Harris's Middle East strategy is, except with 299 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 5: the exception of her comments that were made after her 300 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 5: meeting with Netanyahu last week. But when you're looking at 301 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 5: the big picture with where things are going, I think 302 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 5: that Netanya, who is having to tread carefully because he 303 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 5: also has to think about his own career which is 304 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 5: at risk as well. 305 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 2: Well, that's right, Kamala Harris is striking. We'll say exactly 306 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 2: the same thing word for word as Joe Biden, but 307 00:16:56,560 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 2: will be applauded by members of the squad and it will. 308 00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 4: Be interpreted differently. 309 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 2: When she had those remarks following the meeting, she didn't 310 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 2: say anything Joe Biden had not said before and calling 311 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 2: for a ceasefire, but it landed differently. Why. 312 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 5: I think the way she talked about the conflict itself, 313 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 5: I remember reading some of the analysis was that it 314 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 5: was seen as more balanced because it wasn't talking just 315 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:22,919 Speaker 5: about what was happening in Israel, but what was happening 316 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 5: with the humanitarian situation on the ground. 317 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 2: She says, our support, desire and clad when it comes 318 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 2: to Israel, right, correct, correct, So it's kind. 319 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:30,919 Speaker 4: Of the same message. 320 00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 5: Yes, it's just I would say boxed a little differently. 321 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 5: As you noted. 322 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:39,439 Speaker 2: What's the message from Donald Trump? There's been talk of 323 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:41,919 Speaker 2: a feud between these two. They got back together at 324 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:43,680 Speaker 2: mar A Lago. We all saw the hug. 325 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 4: What's Donald Trump's real policy? Does Benjamin Nett? YEAHO, No, Well, 326 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 4: I think. 327 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 5: That Donald Trump, our former US president, Donald Trump's view 328 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:56,639 Speaker 5: is he's a deal maker. If this war drags on 329 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 5: to let's say, if he was to win the election 330 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:01,399 Speaker 5: come January, he's going to want to make a deal 331 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 5: because he would like to win the Nobel Peace Prize. 332 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,160 Speaker 4: He'd like the Nobel Peace Prize. 333 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:09,400 Speaker 5: Yes, he's always seemed to hint. 334 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:10,919 Speaker 4: At that my way of Israel. 335 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:14,320 Speaker 5: I mean, he would like to be the peacemaker between 336 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:16,879 Speaker 5: and to end the war. And I really think that is. 337 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:17,440 Speaker 4: That a good thing. 338 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:21,400 Speaker 5: I mean, nobody wants a war to go go on. 339 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 5: But I think that when Jnald Trump thinks about the conflict, 340 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 5: he's thinking about making a deal. 341 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,160 Speaker 2: That's fascinating and that would probably go for Ukraine as well. Right, 342 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 2: So he sweeps in brings both conflicts to a close. 343 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 2: Wins the Nobel Peace Prize. That's that's the idea. 344 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 5: I mean that his in his world potentially. 345 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:47,639 Speaker 2: Yes, in Kamala Harris's world, does the cease fire happen 346 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:51,920 Speaker 2: before November? Is that something that Benjamina who would wait 347 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 2: to see? 348 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 3: Well? 349 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 5: I think that the fact that Ismailhanye was just assassinated, 350 00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 5: who is a chief negotiator, has definitely delayed negotiations. It 351 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 5: hasn't ended them, but I think that it may possibly 352 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 5: go past November. We'll have to see. 353 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 2: These are wild times to think that we're talking about 354 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 2: this today. When we called you last evening, we didn't 355 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 2: know what would be happening in Tehran. And this really 356 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,000 Speaker 2: has become a day to day, almost hour to hour story. 357 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 4: Hasn't it. It has all over again. It's great to 358 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 4: have you back. 359 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:28,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 360 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then 361 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: froud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 362 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 363 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 7: In the latest Bloomberg News Morning Console Swing state poll 364 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 7: that didn't just show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in 365 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 7: a statistical tie across the seven states that will likely 366 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:52,680 Speaker 7: decide the election, but also showed where voters trust them 367 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 7: when it comes to specific issues. On unity, Joe Kamala 368 00:19:56,640 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 7: Harris is the favorite. On immigration and on the economy, 369 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 7: it is Donald Trump by a wide margin. 370 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:04,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, you can drill down even more when it comes 371 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,879 Speaker 2: Kayley to stock market performance Trump forty eight Kamala Harris 372 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,959 Speaker 2: thirty five. That's who do you trust more to handle? 373 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 2: That's a wide disparity forty seven, forty two in favor 374 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,439 Speaker 2: of Trump when it comes to taxes and on this 375 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 2: FED day interest rates Trump forty six Kamala Harris thirty nine. 376 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 2: Maybe she should start tweeting at Jay Powell the way 377 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:24,960 Speaker 2: he used to to turn those numbers around. It makes 378 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:27,760 Speaker 2: you wonder where the strength is coming from as she 379 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:29,679 Speaker 2: makes up for so much lost ground here. And to 380 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 2: your point, Wendy Benjaminson has been all over this for 381 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 2: US Washington Senior editor and are polling guru here in 382 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 2: the newsroom. Wendy, give us the big picture, because this 383 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,400 Speaker 2: isn't just making up ground. She's leading in Michigan by 384 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 2: eleven points. What are the issues driving this? 385 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:43,960 Speaker 6: Well? 386 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,680 Speaker 8: I think part of the issue is just the sort 387 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 8: of excitement and energy that she brings to the campaign. 388 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,920 Speaker 8: It's like Democratic voters all over the country are saying, Wow, 389 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 8: now we got a raise. Okay, let's you know, let's 390 00:20:57,480 --> 00:20:59,439 Speaker 8: all get in there. And we're seeing that in her 391 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 8: fundraising numbers two hundred million dollars in one week. Sixty 392 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,679 Speaker 8: six percent of them were first time donors. We're seeing 393 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 8: it in the poll among enthusiasm to vote now is up. 394 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:14,400 Speaker 8: Sixty five percent of Black respondents in our poll said 395 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,639 Speaker 8: they were more motivated to vote now that she's in 396 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 8: the race. Similar numbers for Hispanics and for young people 397 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,679 Speaker 8: of all races. These are the people that Donald Trump 398 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 8: was just losing in droves. But to your point on 399 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:28,640 Speaker 8: the who do you trust questions, one of the things 400 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 8: I should point out is that, yes, she is still 401 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 8: well behind Donald Trump on economic issues and immigration, but 402 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 8: she's ahead of where Biden was last month. So she's 403 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,000 Speaker 8: made up some of that ground. And now now that 404 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 8: we've gone through the hey gee, it's Kamala. Isn't that exciting? 405 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,760 Speaker 8: Now she's going to have to start talking about issues 406 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 8: and we'll see where she goes there. 407 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,600 Speaker 7: Well, certainly we've already seen with the initial advis from 408 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,440 Speaker 7: the Trump campaign going after her on the issue of 409 00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 7: the border. We talked a lot about those yesterday. It 410 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 7: is worth noting as well. And of course this poll 411 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 7: went into the field after we knew that JD. Vance 412 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,560 Speaker 7: was alongside Donald Trump on this ticket. We still don't 413 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 7: know who's joining Kamala Harris. We expect we'll find out 414 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 7: within the next week. But how should we be thinking 415 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:12,640 Speaker 7: about the impact that could. 416 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 8: Have the impact of her choosing a vice president. I 417 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,840 Speaker 8: think she really needs to look at the states where 418 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 8: she needs to gain ground. We are looking very closely 419 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,120 Speaker 8: now at Jos Shapiro, Mark Kelly and Tim Walls. And 420 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:32,000 Speaker 8: Tim Walls brings a sort of progressive energy that will 421 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 8: help her sustain that young vote and the votes of 422 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 8: people of color. Doesn't do much geographically. I mean, Minnesota 423 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:41,159 Speaker 8: has always been a blue state, always has been, always 424 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:45,440 Speaker 8: will be, despite Donald Trump's efforts to turn it. Read Pennsylvania, 425 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,680 Speaker 8: where Jos Shapiro is the governor. Our poll shows she's 426 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,680 Speaker 8: still down there, probably because of her remarks on fracking, 427 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 8: probably because unions aren't sure what to do yet, so 428 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,879 Speaker 8: she needs to make up a lot of ground there, 429 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,480 Speaker 8: But as you noted, immigration is her Achilles heel. It 430 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:03,399 Speaker 8: is the one thing that Donald Trump is just going 431 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 8: to hammer on day in and day out, where Mark 432 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 8: Kelly of Arizona could as a moderate border state senator, 433 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:13,120 Speaker 8: help her mitigate that. 434 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:16,120 Speaker 2: There's one number in here that I find interesting that's 435 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,440 Speaker 2: not getting enough talk. In my opinion, we talked about 436 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 2: interest rates, the price of goods, a number of financial issues. 437 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 2: There's one thing that touches all of us, and that's 438 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 2: healthcare costs. And she's blowing Donald Trump out of the 439 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 2: water on this. Harris forty nine percent, Trump forty Who 440 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 2: do you trust more to handle healthcare costs? Almost a 441 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 2: ten point spread. Does he need to start talking about 442 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:39,160 Speaker 2: this in a different way? 443 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,479 Speaker 8: Well, if he wants to win the trust of voters 444 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:45,119 Speaker 8: on those issues, maybe he should. But remember he wants 445 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,959 Speaker 8: to end the Affordable Care Act. He's been saying that 446 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:49,960 Speaker 8: for years. He said it all through his first term, 447 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,359 Speaker 8: and he couldn't get it done because Congress wouldn't go along. 448 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 8: And he's doing it again this year. And affordable healthcare. 449 00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,320 Speaker 8: She's that is the one thing she has already been 450 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,640 Speaker 8: hammering on in her rallies is that he wants to 451 00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,719 Speaker 8: end that I'm to help people. I'm here to help people, 452 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 8: you know, get what the care they need. I think 453 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,879 Speaker 8: she will focus much more than Biden did on the 454 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:16,360 Speaker 8: care economy, childcare, housing costs, healthcare, elder care, the sort 455 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,920 Speaker 8: of things that families worry about every day, as opposed 456 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:23,359 Speaker 8: to Donald Trump's ideas of what costs, what is better 457 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:23,920 Speaker 8: for business? 458 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:28,240 Speaker 7: All right, Bloomberg's Wendy Benjaminson Marathon twenty four hours for 459 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 7: Wendy as we got this pull out into the world, 460 00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,200 Speaker 7: Thank you so much. And of course what we are 461 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,440 Speaker 7: listening to Wendy and detailing our polling that shows more 462 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 7: enthusiasm among black voters, who suggest they may be more 463 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 7: likely to vote now that Kamala Harris is in the race. 464 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,760 Speaker 7: It is worth noting that as we speak, we're preparing 465 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 7: to hear from Donald Trump at the National Association of 466 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,880 Speaker 7: Black Journalists in Chicago, where he will be taking part 467 00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:55,119 Speaker 7: in a moderated panel Joe. Of course, Kamala Harris is 468 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 7: not going to be there today. It is planned apparently 469 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 7: for a virtual or other wise meeting in September. But 470 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,440 Speaker 7: it speaks to this notion that Donald Trump is trying 471 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 7: to reach a certain demographic here. So on this note, 472 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 7: let's assemble now. Our political panel with us is Lauren Tomlinson, 473 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 7: Republican strategist and Claffee Communications President, and Jane Wartel, who's 474 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,639 Speaker 7: our Democratic strategist today. She is partner at our initiative, 475 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,400 Speaker 7: so Jenay. Obviously, while we wait to hear more from 476 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,640 Speaker 7: Donald Trump in Chicago today, we have heard a great 477 00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,680 Speaker 7: deal from him over the last twenty four hours. We've 478 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,360 Speaker 7: seen advertisements as well. I just saw Kamala Harris ad 479 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,960 Speaker 7: in fact that was running during the Olympics. When we 480 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,720 Speaker 7: think about the messaging here, Harris still trying to introduce 481 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:38,160 Speaker 7: herself and Donald Trump already attacking her, how soon does 482 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,879 Speaker 7: Kamala Harris need to go on the attack in return? 483 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,399 Speaker 9: Well, I believe the Vice President Harris is going to 484 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 9: spend the next few days on the campaign trail, as 485 00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 9: you said, introducing ourselves to voters, making sure that they 486 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,640 Speaker 9: know who she is. Certainly we're very familiar with her 487 00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 9: from our time as vice president, but making sure that 488 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:05,200 Speaker 9: voters know her plan and how that may differ ever 489 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:10,520 Speaker 9: so slightly or in great measure from President Biden's policy 490 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:15,040 Speaker 9: stances on certain issues. I think that she has actually 491 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 9: been in that time also taking an opportunity to demonstrate 492 00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,240 Speaker 9: for voters what the contrast is, particularly on the economy, 493 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 9: particularly on reproductive freedom, and I think that's been really important. 494 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 9: When she talks about you not going back, she talks 495 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,399 Speaker 9: about not going back to many of the Trump policies 496 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:38,800 Speaker 9: that were failed, and also highlighting that former President Trump 497 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,399 Speaker 9: really has an outlined a vision for America that is progressive, 498 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 9: that moved forward, but rather rehashing kind of some of 499 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,880 Speaker 9: his past failures as president and places where he really 500 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,439 Speaker 9: didn't get the job done. So I believe she's threading 501 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 9: the needle and doing both introducing herself now to voters, 502 00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:58,119 Speaker 9: but also creating contrast early with former President Trump. 503 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 2: I want to ask you both about the results of 504 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 2: this poll, Lauren. 505 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:03,720 Speaker 4: From the view of. 506 00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 2: The Trump campaign, they can't be happy with what Bloomberg 507 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,960 Speaker 2: News in Morning Consult is finding here, particularly when it 508 00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:14,119 Speaker 2: comes to some of the blue Wall states as Democrats 509 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,159 Speaker 2: call them, like Michigan with Kamala Harris up eleven. I 510 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 2: don't know how far you're reading into that, but does 511 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,959 Speaker 2: this suggest a narrowing path for Donald Trump? 512 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:26,840 Speaker 10: I think it puts us back pre debate. 513 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,440 Speaker 11: So a lot of this is very similar to how 514 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 11: tight we were looking at the Blue States pre Joe 515 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:39,920 Speaker 11: Biden's cognitive issues coming to roost. So I think that 516 00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 11: for the Trump campaign, yes, they're going to be concerned 517 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 11: their advantage was just eliminated with Kamala coming in, but 518 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 11: it doesn't change the strategy and the outreach that they're 519 00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:53,280 Speaker 11: going to have to do to make sure that they 520 00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 11: make up these numbers and the targets are still the same, 521 00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:57,960 Speaker 11: So they've got a lot of work to do. They've 522 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:01,600 Speaker 11: got to stay focused. And also, you know, like we've 523 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 11: been talking about, there's a huge enthusiasm boost right now. 524 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,880 Speaker 11: So who knows if Michigan, for example, stays at eleven. 525 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,240 Speaker 11: I imagine it's going to calm down a little bit 526 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 11: as Kamala. 527 00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:15,000 Speaker 10: Talks about the policy issues and all of these things. 528 00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:16,199 Speaker 3: That are going forward. 529 00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,880 Speaker 11: But for the moment, the polls are going to reflect 530 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,040 Speaker 11: that enthusiasm boost and they're going to be very very tight, 531 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,359 Speaker 11: and any campaign is going to be concerned about that. 532 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 10: But they've got to keep doing the work. 533 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,320 Speaker 7: So that's how Donald Trump may be looking at these figures. 534 00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,880 Speaker 7: But Janey, what about if you're the Kamala Harris campaign 535 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:35,919 Speaker 7: as nascent as it still is, knowing you have to 536 00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:39,520 Speaker 7: make a vice presidential selection in just the next few days. 537 00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,520 Speaker 7: We're expecting this could happen by next Tuesday. How could 538 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,840 Speaker 7: figures like what we're seeing in states like say Pennsylvania 539 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 7: or Arizona or Georgia for that matter, influenced that decision. 540 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:52,960 Speaker 9: Well, you have to look at what does a vice 541 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:57,400 Speaker 9: presidential pick really bring to the ticket? Right you're thinking 542 00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,320 Speaker 9: about obviously your swing states where you have folks like 543 00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 9: Josh Shapiro, where you have folks like Mark Kelly, who 544 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,800 Speaker 9: are people who could really add and expand your map 545 00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,400 Speaker 9: and make some of those tougher battleground states a little 546 00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,080 Speaker 9: less tough. But you also have to think about what 547 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:17,520 Speaker 9: are the policy positions and the roles that they've played 548 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,720 Speaker 9: in governance that really do bring kind of that credentialing 549 00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 9: to to your ticket. And so that's why someone like 550 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 9: uh A, Joshapiro or Mark Kelly really does rise to 551 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,160 Speaker 9: the top of that list, because these are folks who 552 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,800 Speaker 9: understand the nuance of policymaking. They understand, you know, the 553 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 9: interplay between the executive being an executive but then you know, 554 00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,160 Speaker 9: Mark Kelly also understands what it means to be an 555 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:46,160 Speaker 9: elective member of of of a federal of a federal chamber. 556 00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,400 Speaker 9: And so I think that those that that governance experience 557 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:53,560 Speaker 9: is really important, and the certain policies and leadership roles 558 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:55,880 Speaker 9: that they've taken up on committees is also a big. 559 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:56,200 Speaker 3: Part of this. 560 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 9: And I think the third part you got to think 561 00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,880 Speaker 9: about the coalition that they bring in their states, whether 562 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 9: you're thinking about moderate voters, whether you're thinking about swing voters, 563 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:09,000 Speaker 9: and in your base voters as well, what do they 564 00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:11,560 Speaker 9: bring in terms of helping you to share that up. 565 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:15,520 Speaker 9: And we've seen that Vice President Harris has had tremendous 566 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 9: enthusiasm in the base, but there is still that middle, right, 567 00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:22,160 Speaker 9: there are still those moderate voters who I believe this 568 00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,480 Speaker 9: vice presidential pick for her will have to help sure 569 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 9: up Lauren. 570 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,560 Speaker 2: We've been talking about voter's propensity to trust Donald Trump 571 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:33,480 Speaker 2: more than Kamala Harris when it comes to economic issues, 572 00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,959 Speaker 2: how to handle interest rates, the price of goods, the 573 00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:39,920 Speaker 2: cost of services. There's a huge exception though, as we 574 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:44,600 Speaker 2: just identified, and that's healthcare costs. Kamala Harris is trusted 575 00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:48,760 Speaker 2: by forty nine percent to Donald Trump's forty percent. Knowing 576 00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:52,360 Speaker 2: he's been attacking the Affordable Care Act and has promised 577 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 2: for years to put forth a proposal that would rival 578 00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 2: what many call Obamacare, to see actually to close the 579 00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,560 Speaker 2: deal on that, to shore up this number and put 580 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:05,160 Speaker 2: up a credible plan. 581 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 11: I think he would. But the thing about the healthcare 582 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:12,040 Speaker 11: numbers is I'm not sure that that's going to rise 583 00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 11: to a top three issue where they're going to spend 584 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,920 Speaker 11: a lot of time messaging about it. We consistently see 585 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,840 Speaker 11: in the polls that people are making their decision on 586 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:26,320 Speaker 11: the next president based on the economy, based on immigration, 587 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,680 Speaker 11: based on crime in their communities. And so while those 588 00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:33,360 Speaker 11: top three, you know, it's kind of like the hierarchy 589 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:37,280 Speaker 11: of needs. While those top three are top of mind healthcare, unity, 590 00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,160 Speaker 11: fear for democracy, a lot of these other things fall 591 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:42,560 Speaker 11: to the wayside. They may came up, came up in 592 00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,120 Speaker 11: a debate, but we're not going to see the same 593 00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:49,320 Speaker 11: impact that they had in Donald Trump's midterms. For example, 594 00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:53,000 Speaker 11: when you know, there was like a big healthcare scare 595 00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:56,520 Speaker 11: among seniors, and that really flipped some of those congressional 596 00:31:56,520 --> 00:32:00,320 Speaker 11: districts for Democrats. So I'm not I don't think they're 597 00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:02,600 Speaker 11: worried about it as much, but eventually he is going 598 00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:04,880 Speaker 11: to have to address that because he's said multiple times 599 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:06,600 Speaker 11: that he doesn't want to take away healthcare. He wants 600 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,160 Speaker 11: to lower costs in those types of things, and he 601 00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 11: needs to say how he wants to do it. 602 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:11,800 Speaker 9: Well. 603 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:15,240 Speaker 7: If we're thinking about healthcare policy, Jenee. Of course, it's 604 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,600 Speaker 7: been pointed out on that issue as well as others, 605 00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:21,200 Speaker 7: including fracking, which our colleague Wendy just mentioned. When Harris 606 00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,440 Speaker 7: was campaigning for president at the first time around in 607 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:27,360 Speaker 7: twenty nineteen, she was adopting some of these more progressive 608 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,640 Speaker 7: liberal policies. It does feel that in some ways she 609 00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:31,680 Speaker 7: is walking back from them. 610 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:31,960 Speaker 9: Now. 611 00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:35,520 Speaker 7: How should she be towing that line of still trying 612 00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:37,760 Speaker 7: to attract those progressive voters that she was in that 613 00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:41,440 Speaker 7: primary back in the twenty twenty cycle, versus trying to 614 00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,840 Speaker 7: appeal to more moderates and without looking as though she's 615 00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:46,320 Speaker 7: faltering on her own beliefs. 616 00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:53,480 Speaker 9: I think what's important here is to highlight what she 617 00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,560 Speaker 9: said on the campaign trail in terms of her record, 618 00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,720 Speaker 9: but I think it's also an ability for her, in 619 00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:04,000 Speaker 9: a vice president to really embrace policies that may be 620 00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,160 Speaker 9: a bit more popular in this moment, right, you have 621 00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,800 Speaker 9: to be listening to the American voters and figuring out 622 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,240 Speaker 9: where the polling and the messaging is telling what the 623 00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:13,280 Speaker 9: polling and the messaging is telling you. You know, I 624 00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:15,680 Speaker 9: know that this is obviously the early days of the 625 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:17,920 Speaker 9: Harris campaign, but I think this is also a moment 626 00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:20,400 Speaker 9: where there's probably a fair amount of message testing. There's 627 00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,080 Speaker 9: probably a fair amount of them looking at where the 628 00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:27,800 Speaker 9: electorates attitudes rests in terms of some of these more 629 00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,800 Speaker 9: progressive and moderate policies, and how do they come down 630 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:36,000 Speaker 9: on a Harrish for president messaging strategy that really speaks to. 631 00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:37,520 Speaker 3: Where the voters are. 632 00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:41,080 Speaker 9: And I don't think that really abandons any of the 633 00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:46,880 Speaker 9: progressive values and views that she's presented. And I don't 634 00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,760 Speaker 9: think that you know, is pandering to moderates. I think 635 00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:53,840 Speaker 9: it's looking at where are the accomplishments aligned with her 636 00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,080 Speaker 9: ability to get things done, and how to strike a 637 00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:00,160 Speaker 9: new message that is right dead in the center. 638 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:00,440 Speaker 4: Of that. 639 00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:05,240 Speaker 2: Smart talk with a great panel Jenny Wartel, Democratic Strategists, 640 00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,640 Speaker 2: partner at ARC Initiatives. Thank you, Jenne, alongside Lauren Tomlinson, 641 00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:12,359 Speaker 2: Republican Strategists, the head of Claffee Communications, and a great 642 00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,560 Speaker 2: conversation for our viewers and listeners today on Balance of Power. 643 00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:22,160 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 644 00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,120 Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and 645 00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,680 Speaker 1: then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can 646 00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,960 Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 647 00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:35,920 Speaker 1: York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 648 00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,439 Speaker 7: We wait the FED decision at two pm Eastern times. 649 00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 7: We've discussed they are widely expected to hold rate study today, 650 00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:45,080 Speaker 7: but there are some voices here in Washington that would 651 00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:47,439 Speaker 7: like to see a cut happen now instead of waiting 652 00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:51,759 Speaker 7: until September. That includes Senators Elizabeth Warren, John Hickenlooper, and 653 00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:55,120 Speaker 7: Sheldon Whitehouse, who today Joe wrote a letter to German Powell, 654 00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:56,680 Speaker 7: as we have seen them do for a few meetings 655 00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:59,680 Speaker 7: in a row now, urging that the data suggests the 656 00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:00,799 Speaker 7: fetch cut rates. Yeah. 657 00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,000 Speaker 2: Look, there are some on Wall Street kind of quietly 658 00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:04,200 Speaker 2: hoping for that today too. 659 00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:04,440 Speaker 4: Right. 660 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,879 Speaker 2: You better believe Lindsay Owens has been making that call 661 00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:10,640 Speaker 2: ever since we started talking with her. Several months ago, 662 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:14,160 Speaker 2: executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, former senior economic policy 663 00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:18,200 Speaker 2: advisor to the aforementioned Elizabeth Warren lindsay, it's great to 664 00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:21,160 Speaker 2: see you as we walk up to our special coverage here. 665 00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,360 Speaker 2: What do you actually think will happen today? Is the 666 00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:24,240 Speaker 2: conventional wisdom? 667 00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:24,600 Speaker 4: Correct? 668 00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:26,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, Look, the. 669 00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,760 Speaker 10: Conventional wisdom is that they're going to hold steady. 670 00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:33,879 Speaker 6: But I think all signs are clearly indicating that it's 671 00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:35,160 Speaker 6: time for rate cuts. 672 00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:38,600 Speaker 10: In fact, it may be pastime for rate cuts. 673 00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:40,920 Speaker 6: When I zoom out and look at the big picture 674 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:46,160 Speaker 6: for American consumers, for American workers, for American families, all 675 00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,759 Speaker 6: of the data is saying it's time to cut rates. 676 00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:49,080 Speaker 3: Now. 677 00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,000 Speaker 10: We've got real softening in the labor market. 678 00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:56,560 Speaker 6: Obviously, unemployment is low by historical standards, but we've seen 679 00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:57,319 Speaker 6: it ticking up. 680 00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:58,200 Speaker 10: We've seen those. 681 00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:03,120 Speaker 6: Jabas claimed ticking up. We've seen wage growth softening. We're 682 00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:07,400 Speaker 6: also seeing consumers burdened by this incredibly high interest rate environment. 683 00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,719 Speaker 6: Most Americans are not buying houses with cash, they're not 684 00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:13,520 Speaker 6: buying cars with cash. In fact, they're putting a fair 685 00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:17,200 Speaker 6: amount of their monthly expenditures on credit. And when the 686 00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:20,920 Speaker 6: cost of borrowing is up this high. That's really squeezing families, 687 00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,799 Speaker 6: and you've got to start wondering whether the interest rate 688 00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:28,360 Speaker 6: impacts on families are outweighing the inflation impacts on families. 689 00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:30,160 Speaker 10: So I think all signs are. 690 00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,400 Speaker 6: Pointing towards rate cuts, and if we don't get that 691 00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:36,960 Speaker 6: upside surprise today with an announcement of cuts, I think 692 00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:40,600 Speaker 6: we better see a bigger set of cuts in September, 693 00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:42,880 Speaker 6: something along the lines of fifty basis points. 694 00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:46,920 Speaker 7: Oh wow, Okay, Well, we'll see if Chairman Powell is 695 00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:50,280 Speaker 7: willing to commit to something like that or just suggests 696 00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,880 Speaker 7: that they'll be data dependent. But lindsay, considering you were 697 00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:55,280 Speaker 7: just running us through data that you say does suggest 698 00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:57,640 Speaker 7: the Fed should be in a position to ease here, 699 00:36:57,920 --> 00:36:59,920 Speaker 7: the fact is the Fed has not prepared the market 700 00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:02,239 Speaker 7: for that, right. Do you think this time would be 701 00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:04,440 Speaker 7: different in any way that they would be willing to 702 00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:05,840 Speaker 7: take the market by surprise. 703 00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,600 Speaker 6: Well, look, I think that the chair of the Federal 704 00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:15,040 Speaker 6: Reserve has got to balance stable prices with maximum employment. 705 00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,479 Speaker 10: That's his job, and I think doing that. 706 00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:23,719 Speaker 6: Job well may require moving when the data indicates it's 707 00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:27,360 Speaker 6: time to move. So you know, last time you know, 708 00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:29,840 Speaker 6: at this time last year, the FED thought we'd be 709 00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,759 Speaker 6: in about three and a half percent inflation, and we're 710 00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:34,120 Speaker 6: actually closer to two. 711 00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:35,240 Speaker 10: And a half percent inflation. 712 00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,879 Speaker 6: So I worry that they are behind the eight ball here, 713 00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:43,120 Speaker 6: And with every passing FOMC meeting where they don't move 714 00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:47,360 Speaker 6: to correct for being behind the eight ball, the risks. 715 00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:48,880 Speaker 10: Accumulate and compound. 716 00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,920 Speaker 6: And I think, you know, the biggest concern here is 717 00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:56,400 Speaker 6: they put us in a recessionary environment and they're you know, 718 00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,640 Speaker 6: and it's too late to course correct, and so much 719 00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:03,400 Speaker 6: better to course correct early than late in my opinion. 720 00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:06,520 Speaker 4: When will we know? Lindsay, if it's too late. 721 00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:09,760 Speaker 10: Well, that's part of the problem here. 722 00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:14,680 Speaker 6: You often don't know until you're until you're already sort 723 00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,160 Speaker 6: of boiling, right, the sort of the frog isn't in 724 00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:19,880 Speaker 6: a pot of water, and you don't realize your. 725 00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:21,359 Speaker 10: Toast until you are. 726 00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:23,680 Speaker 6: And so that's why I think when you look at 727 00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:25,440 Speaker 6: the big picture here, when you look at the data, 728 00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:30,040 Speaker 6: you have to balance all of the information and what 729 00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:33,400 Speaker 6: I'm seeing in the big picture for consumers, for workers, 730 00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:38,040 Speaker 6: and for a recession risk all points towards cutting rates. Now, 731 00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:39,640 Speaker 6: the other piece of data that I think we have 732 00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:43,080 Speaker 6: to look at is what's driving the remaining portion of inflation, 733 00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:45,239 Speaker 6: and here what we see is that the lie and 734 00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,759 Speaker 6: share of it is coming from housing and energy, and 735 00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:52,560 Speaker 6: both of these two markets, both of these two sectors 736 00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:57,120 Speaker 6: are not benefiting from historically tight interest rates. If we 737 00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:59,400 Speaker 6: want to bring more housing supply online, if we want 738 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:02,160 Speaker 6: to get housing starts up, we've got to bring interest 739 00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:02,840 Speaker 6: rates down. 740 00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:05,360 Speaker 10: And if we want to start transitioning. 741 00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,799 Speaker 6: To a more resilient and clean energy future, we've got 742 00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:11,799 Speaker 6: to also bring that supply online, get those investments in 743 00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,640 Speaker 6: clean energy online. And the interest rate environment that we're 744 00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:19,319 Speaker 6: really laboring under and suffering under right now is moving 745 00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:21,760 Speaker 6: us in the opposite direction on both of those counts. 746 00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:25,839 Speaker 7: Well, it is interesting to consider we got pending home 747 00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:28,719 Speaker 7: sales data earlier this morning, Lindsay, which actually surprised to 748 00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:30,600 Speaker 7: the upside in a big way, up four point eight 749 00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:33,400 Speaker 7: percent month over month. The expectation was for one and 750 00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:35,720 Speaker 7: a half percent. So maybe we are seeing some loosening 751 00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:37,560 Speaker 7: up in a housing market that has been also very 752 00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:40,960 Speaker 7: stuck for some time now. As we have that differential 753 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:42,759 Speaker 7: between mortgage rates you can get now and what you 754 00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:46,239 Speaker 7: could get before this hiking cycle really started. Of course, 755 00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,320 Speaker 7: we have to consider, as well, as we talk about 756 00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:50,080 Speaker 7: often here on balance of power, that we are in 757 00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:52,040 Speaker 7: the middle of an election cycle. If the FED is 758 00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:55,040 Speaker 7: going to signal cutting in September, perhaps if your suggestion 759 00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:57,920 Speaker 7: is correct as much as fifty basis points right before 760 00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:01,360 Speaker 7: an election, we've seen elect officials suggest that would be 761 00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:04,880 Speaker 7: viewed as politically motivated problematic. Do you think ultimately that 762 00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:07,200 Speaker 7: bears weight with Jerown Powell and his colleagues. 763 00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:10,839 Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm so glad that you raised this point, because 764 00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:14,120 Speaker 6: we're living in this sort of Alison Wonderland parallel universe 765 00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,879 Speaker 6: right now, where up is down and down is up. 766 00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:19,440 Speaker 6: The fact of the matter is, if the data indicates 767 00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:21,840 Speaker 6: that the FED needs to cut rates, they need to 768 00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:25,400 Speaker 6: cut rates, and not cutting rates when the data suggests 769 00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:28,520 Speaker 6: that they should be cutting rates because of concerns about 770 00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:31,960 Speaker 6: the election. That's the political move, right, The political move 771 00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:37,200 Speaker 6: is changing course off the data to support a candidate 772 00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:42,439 Speaker 6: or a particular economic atmosphere or particular election atmosphere. 773 00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:45,120 Speaker 10: So if the data says cut, they have to cut. 774 00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:47,320 Speaker 6: And if they decide not to cut because of the election, 775 00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:49,680 Speaker 6: that ultimately is a political decision. 776 00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:50,680 Speaker 10: Their job is to. 777 00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:53,480 Speaker 6: Follow the data and to follow their dual mandate of 778 00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:57,120 Speaker 6: bringing Americans stable prices and maximum employment. 779 00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:00,759 Speaker 2: Lindsay, we only have about a mine it left here. 780 00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:04,280 Speaker 2: What would you ask then Chair Powell in the news 781 00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:07,200 Speaker 2: conference to draw him out. 782 00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:08,800 Speaker 4: A little bit later on today following this decision. 783 00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:11,600 Speaker 6: Yeah, if I'm in the news conference and I know 784 00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:15,480 Speaker 6: that you know he's gonna a hold study in July, 785 00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:17,879 Speaker 6: I'm going to ask him if you can double down 786 00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:19,960 Speaker 6: in September, what would it look like to do a 787 00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:21,960 Speaker 6: fifty basis point cut in September? 788 00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:25,440 Speaker 7: All right, we'll see if that question gets asked. Lindsay, 789 00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:27,279 Speaker 7: thank you so much as always for joining us on 790 00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:29,920 Speaker 7: the SPEN Day. Lindsay Owens, executive director of the Groundwork 791 00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:34,399 Speaker 7: Collaborative and former Senior Economic policy advisor to Senator Elizabeth Warren, 792 00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:38,120 Speaker 7: who again is encouraging Chairman Powell consistently. 793 00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:44,560 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 794 00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:48,279 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 795 00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:50,960 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 796 00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:54,280 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 797 00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:56,000 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.